EM-EMEA Central Banks

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February 14, 2025

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CBR Held Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on February 14 for the second consecutive time supported by the recent RUB strengthening while the inflation remains elevated. CBR said in its statement on February 14 that current inflationary pressures remain

February 06, 2025

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CBR Will Likely Hold Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the key rate stable at 21% on December 20 despite expectations were centered around a rate hike, we now foresee that the rate will be kept constant on February 14 taking into account that January will likely bring a little inflation relief support

January 30, 2025

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As Expected, SARB Cut the Key Rate to 7.5% on January 30
Paying Article

January 30, 2025 4:54 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After StatsSA announced on January 22 that annual inflation stood at 3.0% in December, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to cut the key rate from 7.75% to 7.5% on January 30 as inflation remains moderate, power cuts (loadsheddin

January 24, 2025

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SA MPC Preview: SARB will Likely Cut the Key Rate to 7.5% on January 30
Paying Article

January 24, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After StatsSA announced on January 22 that annual inflation stood at 3.0% in December, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we now think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.75% to 7.5% on January 30 as inflation remains moderate

January 23, 2025

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As Expected, CBRT Continued its Easing Cycle on January 23
Paying Article

January 23, 2025 12:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate to 47.5% on December 26, the easing cycle continued on January 23 as CBRT reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% backed by the deceleration trend in inflation continued in December, monthly inflation stood below expecta

January 16, 2025

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Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Continue its Easing Cycle on January 23
Paying Article

January 16, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, we believe the rate cuts will continue during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 23. CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% as the deceleration trend in inflation c

January 10, 2025

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Reserves, Rates, and Reform: BI’s 2025 Strategy to Stabilise the Rupiah
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Currency pressures and policy pivots define BI’s entry into 2025, with the rupiah breaching 16,000 per dollar. Strong reserves and strategic moves signal resilience, but sustaining investor confidence in the face of fiscal and structural vulnerabilities remains a tough challenge.

January 09, 2025

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SARB to Continue Rate Cuts in 2025, but the Pace Will Depend on Inflation Trajectory and Global Developments
Paying Article

January 9, 2025 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased the rate from 8.25% to 7.75% in 2024 given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we for

January 08, 2025

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2025 will be Key for CBRT
Freemium Article

January 8, 2025 3:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, which was the first rate cut in around two years, we believe the rate cuts will continue in 2025 following inflation fighting drive in 2024 while our end year key rate prediction remains

December 26, 2024

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First Cut Since 2023: CBRT Lowered Key Rate to 47.5%
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December 26, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26 which was the first rate cut in around two years, but said it would remain cautious about future cuts. In its press release, CBRT cited a flat underlying trend of inflation in November and sugg

December 20, 2024

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Surprising Move: CBR Held Key Rate at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 20 that it held the key rate constant at 21%. The CBR emphasized in its statement that monetary conditions tightened more significantly than envisaged by the October key rate decision, and it would continue to eval

November 21, 2024

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SARB MPC Review: Fall in Inflation Sparked Easing Cycle to Continue on November 21
Paying Article

November 21, 2024 3:58 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the key rate by 25 bps to 7.75% at its final meeting of the year on November 21 given power cuts (loadshedding) are suspended, inflation expectations decelerated, and CPI softened further to 2.8% YoY in October due to falling fuel prices and slowing

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No Surprises: CBRT Held Key Rate Stable at 50% on November 21
Paying Article

November 21, 2024 11:48 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the eighth consecutive month on November 21. In its press release, CBRT highlighted that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation

October 25, 2024

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CBR Hiked Key Rate to Historic 21% Level
Paying Article

October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th

October 17, 2024

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CBRT Continued to Hold Key Rate Stable at 50% for Seventh Consecutive Meeting
Paying Article

October 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the seventh consecutive month on October 17. CBRT’s press release remained almost unchanged, as the regulator highlighted that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in th

October 08, 2024

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SARB in 2025: Rate Cuts Will Continue
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 5:25 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we now foresee the ra

September 25, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

September 19, 2024

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Time Has Come: SARB Cut the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 3:57 PM UTC

Bottom line: As we expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a re

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No Surprises as CBRT Continued to Hold Key Rate Stable at 50% on September 19
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the sixth consecutive month on September 19. CBRT reiterated in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the

September 13, 2024

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As we Expected, CBR Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar
Paying Article

September 13, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on September 13 that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press rele

September 12, 2024

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Time Has Come: SARB will Likely Decrease the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19
Paying Article

September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel

August 29, 2024

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CBRT Remains Cautious Holding Key Rate at 50% Despite Recent Fall in Inflation
Paying Article

August 29, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) recently released its summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting after keeping the policy rate stable at 50% on August 20. CBRT said in its summary that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the u

August 22, 2024

Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts
Paying Article

August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

July 26, 2024

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CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol

July 23, 2024

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CBRT Continued to Keep Key Rate Stable at 50%
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on July 23. CBRT said in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is ob

July 17, 2024

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Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision
Paying Article

July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

July 02, 2024

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Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate
Freemium Article

July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

June 27, 2024

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As Widely Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Stable at 50% on June 27
Paying Article

June 27, 2024 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on June 27 despite galloping inflation edged up to 75.5% in May, up from 69.8% in April. CBRT said in a statement on June 27 that "(…) the tight monetary stance will be main

June 24, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

June 21, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Holds Rate Despite IDR Weakness
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:54 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

June 07, 2024

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CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16% despite Increasing Inflation
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on June 7 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the fourth meeting in a row, but signalled that a rate hike is possible in the near term to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour

May 30, 2024

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SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25%
Paying Article

May 30, 2024 3:06 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at a 15-year high of 8.25% on May 30 despite inflation rate fell for a second consecutive month in April due to less severe power cuts (load shedding), a firmer South African rand (ZAR) coupled with lower f

May 23, 2024

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As Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on May 23 despite galloping inflation which edged up to 69.8% in April, up from 68.5% in March. CBRT said in a statement on May 23 that "(...)considering the lagged effects of

May 22, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

April 29, 2024

Indonesia: MPC Review: Bank Indonesia Surprises With A Rate Hike
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur

April 26, 2024

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CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16%
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4

April 25, 2024

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CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist

April 23, 2024

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Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

April 01, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation
Paying Article

April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac

March 27, 2024

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Beware of Inflation: SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25%
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at 8.25% on March 27. It appears the decision targeted to anchor inflation expectations around the target midpoint, and enhance confidence in achieving the inflation goal as SARB signalled that its fight to

March 25, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

·     Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how

March 22, 2024

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CBR Keeps the Key Rate Constant at 16%
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on March 22 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the second meeting in a row, despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated, and currency weakening continued. We expect the CBR to hold the key rate stab

March 21, 2024

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Inflationary Pressures Caused CBRT to Restart Tightening Cycle and Hike Key Rate to 50%
Paying Article

March 21, 2024 4:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) increased the policy rate by 500 bps to 50% on March 21 due to strong inflation, and pressure on FX and reserves lately. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be mainta

March 18, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

March 07, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index
Paying Article

March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe

February 22, 2024

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CBRT Left the Key Rate Constant at 45%
Paying Article

February 22, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) ended monetary hiking cycle under new governor, and kept the key rate stable at 45% after eighth straight rate hikes since presidential elections last May. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be maint

February 16, 2024

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As Expected, CBR Keeps the Key Rate at 16%
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on February 16 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% after lifting the rate in the last five consecutive MPC meetings, despite inflationary pressures and expectations remaining elevated, domestic demand still out

January 29, 2024

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South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth
Paying Article

January 29, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,

January 26, 2024

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Climate Change: 2025-30 Rather than Long-Term Impacts
Paying Article

January 26, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: In the 2half of the 2020’s GDP in DM economies will benefit from climate change investment, though the net positive impact will likely be modest on an annual basis. The impact on EM economies will be more mixed, as lack of fiscal space restrains the scale of green investment and some

January 25, 2024

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SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25% on January 25
Paying Article

January 25, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate at 8.25% on January 25, given recent fall in inflation, coupled with relatively less power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR) and softer global oil prices since December. It appears the decision targeted to a