CBR Hiked Key Rate to Historic 21% Level

October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th

CBRT Continued to Hold Key Rate Stable at 50% for Seventh Consecutive Meeting

October 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the seventh consecutive month on October 17. CBRT’s press release remained almost unchanged, as the regulator highlighted that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in th

SARB in 2025: Rate Cuts Will Continue

October 8, 2024 5:25 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we now foresee the ra

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

Time Has Come: SARB Cut the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19

September 19, 2024 3:57 PM UTC

Bottom line: As we expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a re

No Surprises as CBRT Continued to Hold Key Rate Stable at 50% on September 19

September 19, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the sixth consecutive month on September 19. CBRT reiterated in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the

As we Expected, CBR Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar

September 13, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on September 13 that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press rele

Time Has Come: SARB will Likely Decrease the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19

September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel

CBRT Remains Cautious Holding Key Rate at 50% Despite Recent Fall in Inflation

August 29, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) recently released its summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting after keeping the policy rate stable at 50% on August 20. CBRT said in its summary that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the u

Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts

August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars

July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol

CBRT Continued to Keep Key Rate Stable at 50%

July 23, 2024 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on July 23. CBRT said in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is ob

Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision

July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate

July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

As Widely Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Stable at 50% on June 27

June 27, 2024 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on June 27 despite galloping inflation edged up to 75.5% in May, up from 69.8% in April. CBRT said in a statement on June 27 that "(…) the tight monetary stance will be main

EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

Bank Indonesia Holds Rate Despite IDR Weakness

June 21, 2024 5:54 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16% despite Increasing Inflation

June 7, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on June 7 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the fourth meeting in a row, but signalled that a rate hike is possible in the near term to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour

SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25%

May 30, 2024 3:06 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at a 15-year high of 8.25% on May 30 despite inflation rate fell for a second consecutive month in April due to less severe power cuts (load shedding), a firmer South African rand (ZAR) coupled with lower f

As Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%

May 23, 2024 7:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on May 23 despite galloping inflation which edged up to 69.8% in April, up from 68.5% in March. CBRT said in a statement on May 23 that "(...)considering the lagged effects of

Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

Indonesia: MPC Review: Bank Indonesia Surprises With A Rate Hike

April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur

CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16%

April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4

CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%

April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist

Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility

April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation

April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac

Beware of Inflation: SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25%

March 27, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at 8.25% on March 27. It appears the decision targeted to anchor inflation expectations around the target midpoint, and enhance confidence in achieving the inflation goal as SARB signalled that its fight to

EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2

March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

·     Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how

CBR Keeps the Key Rate Constant at 16%

March 22, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on March 22 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the second meeting in a row, despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated, and currency weakening continued. We expect the CBR to hold the key rate stab

Inflationary Pressures Caused CBRT to Restart Tightening Cycle and Hike Key Rate to 50%

March 21, 2024 4:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) increased the policy rate by 500 bps to 50% on March 21 due to strong inflation, and pressure on FX and reserves lately. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be mainta

Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index

March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe

CBRT Left the Key Rate Constant at 45%

February 22, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) ended monetary hiking cycle under new governor, and kept the key rate stable at 45% after eighth straight rate hikes since presidential elections last May. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be maint

As Expected, CBR Keeps the Key Rate at 16%

February 16, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on February 16 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% after lifting the rate in the last five consecutive MPC meetings, despite inflationary pressures and expectations remaining elevated, domestic demand still out

South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth

January 29, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,

Climate Change: 2025-30 Rather than Long-Term Impacts

January 26, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: In the 2half of the 2020’s GDP in DM economies will benefit from climate change investment, though the net positive impact will likely be modest on an annual basis. The impact on EM economies will be more mixed, as lack of fiscal space restrains the scale of green investment and some

SARB Held the Key Rate Stable at 8.25% on January 25

January 25, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate at 8.25% on January 25, given recent fall in inflation, coupled with relatively less power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR) and softer global oil prices since December. It appears the decision targeted to a

CBRT Started the New Year with a 250 bps Rate Hike

January 25, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we pencilled a 250 bps policy rate hike by Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on January 25 MPC meeting, CBRT continued its monetary tightening cycle by lifting the key rate from 42.5% to 45%. This is the eighth straight rate hike by CBRT since May presidential elections, simply to fight

SARB to Hold the Key Rate Stable on January 25

January 18, 2024 1:57 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to keep the key rate at 8.25% at the upcoming meeting on January 25, given recent fall in inflation, relatively less power cuts (loadshedding) and a stable Rand (ZAR) since December.

Shipping Freight Cost Jump and Inflation – Some Perspectives

January 9, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The attacks on Red Sea shipping have already triggered a marked rise in freight costs, and more broadly than just for the Red Sea route.  Thus has led to some worries about the possible fresh upside risks to what have recently been sharply falling CPI inflation rates.  These worries a

AI and Technology Impact on Growth and Inflation

January 3, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The full benefits of the latest AI wave will likely not kick in until the late 2020/early 2030’s.However, 5G over the last couple of years has been enabling more connectivity via the Internet of Things and allowing more big data analysis, including AI tools and algorithms. In the 2hal

CBRT Continued Monetary Tightening Cycle on December 21, but with a Lesser Pace

December 21, 2023 12:19 PM UTC

As we pencilled a 250 bps policy rate hike by Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on December 21 MPC meeting, CBRT continued its monetary tightening cycle by lifting the key rate from 40% to 42.5%. This is the seventh straight rate hike by CBRT since May presidential elections, simply to fight against ga

EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong

December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

·  The EMEA economies such as Russia and Turkiye will continue with restrictive monetary policy in H1 2024 due to the desire to control inflation. Meanwhile South Africa has likely halted its tightening cycle at 8.25% and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q2 2024 depending on how soon in

Concerned with Accelerating Inflation, CBR Lifted the Key Rate by 100bps to 16%

December 15, 2023 3:47 PM UTC

As we correctly predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 15 that it decided to hike the key rate by 100 bps to 16% as inflationary pressures elevated, government spending and domestic demand remained high, labour shortages especially in manufacturing continued, and households’

Softer Fuel and Transportation Prices Helped South Africa’s Inflation Decelerate in November

December 13, 2023 1:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After increasing sharply on food and fuel prices in October with 5.9%, inflation cooled off to 5.5% in November largely due to slowing fuel prices and transport prices. Core inflation slightly rose to 4.5% YoY in November from 4.4% in October. Department of Statistics of South Africa (S

Russia’s Inflation Accelerates to 7.5% in November

December 8, 2023 7:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its increasing pattern in November by hitting 7.48% YoY after surging by 6.7% YoY in October. According to the figures announced by Rosstat on December 8, the prices rose by 1.1% on a MoM basis, which marks the fastest MoM pace since April 2022, particularly

Moderate Increase in Turkiye’s Inflation in November

December 4, 2023 11:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Turkish CPI moderately surged to 62% annually and 3.3% monthly in November due to continued adverse impacts of deterioration in pricing behaviour, strong consumption, depreciating Turkish Lira (TRY) and high inflation expectations, while the acceleration pace of the CPI

Turkish Economy Expands 5.9% in Q3 2023

November 30, 2023 1:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 30 that the economy expanded by a 5.9% YoY in Q3 2023, driven by the strong domestic demand and lending, public investments and massive construction projects after February 6 twin earthquakes. (Note: GDP expanded 0.3% in Q3 from