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January 10, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
· UK Gilts have been dragged higher by rising Treasuries and market concerns that BOE rate cuts will be limited (here), while 10yr Bund yields have also been dragged higher by Treasuries concerns on Fed rate cuts/budget deficit and tariffs. Multi quarter we see this as overdone. We
January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi
January 8, 2025 7:58 PM UTC
Minutes from the December 17-18 meeting show the FOMC moving to a more cautious stance, which appears largely a response to recent disappointment on inflation data but uncertainty over policy following the election also seems to be playing a part.
January 8, 2025 3:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, which was the first rate cut in around two years, we believe the rate cuts will continue in 2025 following inflation fighting drive in 2024 while our end year key rate prediction remains
January 7, 2025 7:10 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November.
January 6, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
Mexico's December CPI is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in December, bringing 2024 inflation to 4.3%, above Banxico's target. Core CPI aligns better at 3.5%. Weak demand aids inflation convergence, expected by Q3 2026. Risks include a 22% MXN depreciation and U.S. tariffs. Banxico is likely to continue
January 3, 2025 9:31 AM UTC
It is not clear why China’s authorities are slow in announcing fiscal policy measures, but it could be either acceptance of 5% GDP trajectory or just below or alternatively a desire to see the timing and scale of extra U.S. trade tariffs on China from the incoming Trump adminstration. We see a t
December 31, 2024 10:48 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the November HICP numbers. After a downward revision, and thus below consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were th
December 24, 2024 5:21 AM UTC
Asia Session
While we are getting closer to Christmas, there is no rest for Japan Finance Minister Kato as he is doing the usual verbal intervening routine. There is also no surprise from the October BoJ summary. Still, the JPY is getting minor support and see USD/JPY down 0.09% to 157.01 as U.S. Tre