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April 07, 2026
Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March
April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla
April 06, 2026
April 03, 2026
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn
April 02, 2026
April 01, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?
April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War. In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (
March 31, 2026
U.S. March Consumer Confidence resilient to higher inflation expectations, February job openings trend near flat
March 31, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
Despite a bounce in inflation expectations, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is surprisingly stronger in March at 91.8 from 91.0, a second straight rise though not fully erasing a January dip. February JOLTS data on job openings suggests a fairly stable labor market picture.
EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?
March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB. Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring