Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - strong resistance at 1.3600/30

September 9, 2024 3:31 PM UTC

Little change, as flattening overbought intraday studies prompt consolidation beneath resistance at 1.3600

U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July

September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower

North American Summary and Highlights 5 September

September 5, 2024 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell on ADP data but recovered on ISM services data, ending little changed overall. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited

September 5, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

A Harder Landing and the Fed

September 5, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and the Fed cutting to 3.00-3.25% by end 2025 (here), uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown.  If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely

Asia Summary and Highlights 5 September

September 5, 2024 5:20 AM UTC

Australian July Trade Balance surplus of AUD 6.009bn
Japan July Labor Cash Earnings +3.6% y/y

North American Summary and Highlights 4 September

September 4, 2024 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD, already marginally on the defensive in Europe, slipped on weaker US job openings data. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 4 September

September 4, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

Australian Q2 2024 GDP +0.2% q/q
Japan’s $1.75 tln state pension fund may step up domestic purchases

Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August

September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit

Asia Summary and Highlights 2 Sep

September 2, 2024 5:22 AM UTC

Japan Q2 business capex +7.4% y/y
Australian ANZ job ads down 2.1% m/m

India GDP Review: A Sobering Start to FY25

September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp

Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

Asia Country Risk Ratings

August 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China and Taiwan.  

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 August

August 29, 2024 5:11 AM UTC

NZ ANZ business outlook for August 50.6 versus 27.1 prior
Australia capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2%

Brazil: The Case for a Hike?

August 28, 2024 1:42 PM UTC

Despite the market's push for a rate hike by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB), we believe the current policy rate of 10.5% is sufficiently restrictive to ensure inflation converges. However, de-anchored inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, strong economic activity, and a new BCB president desiri