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January 21, 2025
Rupee at Record Low: Can India Weather the Dollar Storm?
January 21, 2025 5:03 AM UTC
The Indian rupee has slumped to an all-time low of 86 against the US dollar, underscoring the pressure on emerging market currencies as the dollar index surges to multi-month highs. For India, this currency depreciation signals potential disruptions in financial markets, with equities and bonds—no
January 20, 2025
January 17, 2025
Norges Bank Preview (Jan 23): A Message to Markets?
January 17, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
In its first meeting of the year, the Norges Bank is expected to keep rates on hold next Thursday. But it does have the choice of cutting rates, having flagged a move more likely at the meeting due in March, and could do this both to reflect weaker price pressures (especially excluding what are pr
January 16, 2025
ECB December Council Meeting Account Review: The ‘Last Mile’ Appears to Have Shortened Somewhat?
January 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
As the account of the December 11-12 Council meeting noted, a fourth 25 bp discount rate cut was agreed but there appeared to be a minority wanting a 50 bp move. But this account also shows some confusion as to just what the advertised change in forward guidance (in which the ECB accepts that on-tar
Asia Summary and Highlights 16 January
January 16, 2025 4:38 AM UTC
Asia Session
The Australian labor market stayed strong and see another 55.3k employment gains, with both the unemployment and participation rate ticked up by 0.1%. While most gains are in part time job, a rotation from the November report, it does not take out the strength of such report. However, th
January 15, 2025
Mexico’s Plan: An Eye on Nearshoring and Displacing China in U.S.
January 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s “Mexico Plan” targets USD 270 billion in investments, aiming to reduce poverty, boost sustainability, and expand Mexico’s economy. Key goals include nearshoring, increasing domestic production, and fostering U.S. trade relations. However, private investment stag
January 14, 2025
Preview: Due January 15 - U.S. December CPI - Stronger overall, core rate maintaining trend
January 14, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
We expect December’s CPI to increase by a nine-month high of 0.4% overall with a fifth straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. We expect the ex-food and energy index to increase by 0.26% before rounding, which would make it the softest of the five straight 0.3% gains in the core rate. PPI is no
January 13, 2025
Brazil CPI Review: Some Deterioration in December
January 13, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
Brazil’s CPI grew by 0.52% in December, ending 2024 at 4.8%, above the Central Bank’s target range (1.5%–4.5%). Key drivers included food (+1.2% m/m) and household spending (+0.7%). Core inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3% Y/Y. Elevated inflation is expected in early
January 10, 2025
U.S. Treasuries versus Bunds and Gilts
January 10, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
· UK Gilts have been dragged higher by rising Treasuries and market concerns that BOE rate cuts will be limited (here), while 10yr Bund yields have also been dragged higher by Treasuries concerns on Fed rate cuts/budget deficit and tariffs. Multi quarter we see this as overdone. We
January 09, 2025
The Growth-Inflation Tug of War: RBI’s 2025 Policy Outlook with a New Governor
January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi
January 08, 2025
FOMC Minutes from December 18 - Moving towards a more careful approach
January 8, 2025 7:58 PM UTC
Minutes from the December 17-18 meeting show the FOMC moving to a more cautious stance, which appears largely a response to recent disappointment on inflation data but uncertainty over policy following the election also seems to be playing a part.
2025 will be Key for CBRT
January 8, 2025 3:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, which was the first rate cut in around two years, we believe the rate cuts will continue in 2025 following inflation fighting drive in 2024 while our end year key rate prediction remains