View:
March 21, 2025
As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr
Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC
Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer
March 20, 2025
UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Stay Soft Amid Cost Pressures?
March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol
March 19, 2025
UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?
March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
March 18, 2025
Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
March 18, 2025 4:59 PM UTC
Asterisk denotes strength of level
16:30 GMT - The test below 1.4300 has bounced from 1.4265, as oversold intraday studies unwind, with prices currently trading back above 1.4300. Daily readings continue to track lower, however, and broader weekly charts are also bearish, highlighting room for fresh
March 17, 2025
Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Remains Watchful
March 17, 2025 6:45 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia's upcoming monetary policy decisions will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic economic indicators and global financial conditions. With a focus now tilted slightly more towards economic growth than in previous years, BI could surprise markets with its timing and decisions, dependi
Asia Summary and Highlights 17 March
March 17, 2025 5:14 AM UTC
USD opened higher on Monday
US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment not comforting
Zhejiang trade-in subsidy program offering up to 15,000 RMB for new electric vehicle (EV) purchases and 13,000 RMB for gasoline-powered cars
Shenzen announced eased housing finance rules
March 14, 2025
UK GDP Review: Previous Resilience Gives Way to Softer Surveys
March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi
March 13, 2025
Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY
March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
March 12, 2025
Bank of Canada - With risks on both sides, timing matters
March 12, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased as expected by 25bps to 2.75%, a level it sees as neutral. Given massive uncertainty clear forward guidance is impossible but they made no attempt to hide the gravity of the problem, Governor Tiff Macklem stating Canada is facing a new crisis from which the economic impact c
Asia Summary and Highlights 12 March
March 12, 2025 5:12 AM UTC
Sentiment calmer on Wednesday
Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs take effect
Canada warns of oil export restrictions to U.S.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says higher long term rates reflecting market views on economy
Japan’s Major Firms to Offer Strong Wage Hikes
March 11, 2025
North American Summary and Highlights 11 March
March 11, 2025 7:46 PM UTC
Overview - European currencies advanced in the European morning and sustained their gains in North America as Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. North America saw the CAD and equites fall and subsequently rebound on tariff developments.
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 20): Time to Pause?
March 11, 2025 10:33 AM UTC
Having delivered in January, the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (down to 2.25%) having dropped 1.75 ppt in eight months. Especially given the recent upside CPI surpris
March 10, 2025
Country Insights: Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets
March 10, 2025 11:00 AM UTC
The latest update of our Country Insights model ranks the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait (KWT), and Taiwan (TWN) as the strongest performers in our Fiscal Policy’s sub-factors among selected emerging markets. Conversely, Egypt (EGY), Brazil (BRA), and China (CHN) rank among the weakest within