Freemium Content

July 31, 2026

This week's five highlights

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains

July 31, 2026 7:34 AM UTC

Sharp reactive buying interest has cleared 1.3400, with prices reaching 1.3475 before settling lower to 1.3450

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room to extend gains

July 31, 2026 2:23 AM UTC

Break above the 1.3400 level has seen gains to reach 1.3477 high before settling into consolidation

July 30, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 30 July

July 30, 2026 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell further, after weaker than expected Q2 GDP data, led by USD/JPY, where intervention was suspected.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Poised for deeper losses

July 30, 2026 4:28 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp drop in heightened global volatility

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating sharp gains

July 30, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Scope to extend bounce

July 30, 2026 2:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at 1.3273 low has given way to rebound to reach towards the 1.3400 level as prices unwind oversold daily studies

July 29, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 29 July

July 29, 2026 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - The USD slipped after the FOMC left rates unchanged with the dip extending during Warsh’s press conference, with the UST curve sharply steeper and equities weaker.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade

July 29, 2026 4:04 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.4100

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating recent losses

July 29, 2026 7:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion resistance at 1.3300

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later

July 29, 2026 1:47 AM UTC

Break of the 1.3300 support has seen extension to 1.3273 before edging up in consolidation

July 28, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 28 July

July 28, 2026 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - Oil and the USD were slightly weaker, the latter led by EUR/USD.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy in range - background studies under pressure

July 28, 2026 3:30 PM UTC

Consolidation above 1.4100 has given way to a sharp break lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

United Arab Emirates Country Risk Rating

July 28, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in the United Arab Emirates remains at a medium-low rating.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower

July 28, 2026 7:27 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a drift lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending losses

July 28, 2026 1:48 AM UTC

Under pressure, as break of the 1.3300 support see prices extending losses from the 1.3558, mid-July swing high

July 27, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 27 July

July 27, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - Despite reduced Middle East risks, the USD regained a positive tone in North America.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for a test higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

July 27, 2026 3:59 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion resistance at 1.4100

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Rating

July 27, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Saudia Arabia remains at a medium rating.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Any gains to remain limited

July 27, 2026 7:28 AM UTC

Little change, as minor gains give way to consolidation around congestion resistance at 1.3350

Chart GBP/USD Update: Higher in range from 1.3300 support

July 27, 2026 2:14 AM UTC

Higher in range from test of strong support at the 1.3300 May low as prices consolidate sharp drop from the 1.3550 mid-July high