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October 07, 2025
UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness
October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a
October 06, 2025
France: Prime Minister – Another One Bites the Dust
October 6, 2025 9:01 AM UTC
Either side of the English Channel, politicians are competing to see whether France or the UK can provide a prime minister with the shortest time in power. In the UK that was Liz Truss whose 49 days at the helm of the government in 2022 has now been surpassed by French PM Lecornu who has resigned
October 03, 2025
15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September
October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted
October 02, 2025
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline.
October 01, 2025
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September
October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep
September 30, 2025
German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff