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June 03, 2026
U.S. May ADP Employment - Trend picking up
June 3, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
May’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 122k is in line with market exactions if not quite as strong as weekly ADP data for the preceding week had been implying. Still, it maintains a recent improvement in trend and like last week’s was, is the strongest increase since January 2
June 02, 2026
Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
June 2, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th
June 01, 2026
Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1
June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted
May 29, 2026
Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2
May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint
May 28, 2026
ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?
May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC
The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11. As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b
May 27, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?
May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise. Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4