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October 04, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish

October 4, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3550 has reached 1.3590

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U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

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BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion at 1.3100 has met buying interest around 1.3090

October 03, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 3 October
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - The main move of the day was dip in the GBP after comments from BoE Governor Bailey. CHF was also softer after Swiss CPI data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Reversal higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

October 3, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have not been seen

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China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.  China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis.  Asia widespread banking cris

Chart GBP/USD Update: Accelerating lower
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

Steady intraday losses have given way to a sharp break down

October 02, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 2 October
Freemium Article

October 2, 2024 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY was the main mover, supported by comments from BoJ’s Ueda and later US ADP employment data, rising above 146. Elsewhere moves were modest. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower

October 2, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break below 1.3500

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Brazil: Moody’s Upgrade Brazil’s Rating
Freemium Article

October 2, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

Moody's upgraded Brazil's rating to Baa1, one level below investment grade, citing growth and structural reforms like tax and labor reforms. While Brazil's fiscal framework still faces challenges, adherence to it could stabilize the Debt/GDP ratio. Analysts were surprised by the upgrade, but maintai

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Freemium Article

October 2, 2024 7:27 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended

October 01, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 1 October
Freemium Article

October 1, 2024 8:02 PM UTC

Overview - Focus was on an Iranian missile attack on Israel though FX reaction was eventually modest. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower

October 1, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3500

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Brazil: Quarterly Inflation Report Shows BCB Worries
Freemium Article

October 1, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank's latest report highlights stronger-than-expected economic growth of 1.4% in Q2 and a positive output gap, raising inflation risks. While non-core inflation decreased, core measures like services inflation remain sticky. Credit growth continues to be robust, but fiscal pol

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Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
Freemium Article

October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in

September 30, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 30 September
Freemium Article

September 30, 2024 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - Dovish comments from Lagarde weighed on the EUR while less than dovish comments from Powell lifted the USD. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Gains to remain limited

September 30, 2024 3:38 PM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.3500 has met selling interest around 1.3525

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Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
Freemium Article

September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC

The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%).  Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - downside tests to remain limited
Freemium Article

September 30, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

September 27, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 27 September
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 7:51 PM UTC

Overview - Ishiba’s election as Japanese PM sent the JPY higher. US data was soft, but the impact was modest. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited scope above 1.3500

September 27, 2024 3:53 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test higher

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Banxico Review: 25bps Cut as Expected, But Not Unanimous
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

Banxico cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 10.5%, but the decision was not unanimous, with one dissenter favoring a higher rate. Weak domestic growth and softening core CPI suggest further cuts are likely, though caution is needed due to market volatility. Banxico’s minutes will provide more clarity

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

More Cuts on the Way for SNB 
Faster and a Little Further Rate Cuts for Riksbank 
RBA Waiting to ease
U.S. GDP Historical revisions mostly positive 
China Steps Up Support, But Not a Game changer

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating beneath fresh 2024 year high - background studies improving
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Choppy trade has posted a fresh year high at 1.3435

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 September
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Tokyo area September Headline inflation2.2% y/y
Japan LDP begins vote for leadership election
PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)
People's Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp

September 26, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 26 September
Freemium Article

September 26, 2024 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - Despite stronger than expected US data, the USD was mostly softer, though little changed versus JPY and CAD. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited

September 26, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

The bounce from the 1.3420 current year low of 25 September is giving way to choppy trade below congestion resistance at 1.3500

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SNB Review: More Cuts on the Way
Freemium Article

September 26, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Very much as expected, the SNB today repeated the 25 bp policy rate cut that it had made twice since March.  This took the policy rate to 1.0% and reflected an even clearer below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the updated outlook (Figure 1).  This flagged further easing

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

September 26, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

The anticipated test of 1.3340 has extended to 1.3315

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 September
Freemium Article

September 26, 2024 5:09 AM UTC

BOJ July minutes calls for further gradual, but timely, interest rate increases
It is reported that China is considering injecting US$142bn of capital into top banks

September 25, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 25 September
Freemium Article

September 25, 2024 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - EUR/JPY again advanced in Europe, but the USD was stronger in North America after US new home sales exceeded expectations. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited bounce from fresh 2024 year low

September 25, 2024 3:40 PM UTC

The anticipated test of the 1.3436 monthly low of 28 August has extended to post a fresh 2024 year low around 1.3420

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BCB Minutes: Adding Some Hawkishness to the Communique
Freemium Article

September 25, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 10.75%, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity and deteriorating inflation expectations. The committee highlighted rising inflationary pressures, especially in wages and credit growth. While future rate hikes are likely, no forw

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German Data Preview (Sep 30): Inflation Under Target?
Freemium Article

September 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues.  After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted this month to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, ie consistent with the ECB target and well below expectations.  Indeed, the C

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from fresh 2024 year high above 1.3400
Freemium Article

September 25, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.3400 has extended to a fresh 2024 year high at 1.3430

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 September
Freemium Article

September 25, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Japan August services PPI 2.7% y/y vs. 2.6% expected
Australian August monthly  CPI 2.7% y/y (expected 2.8%)
The People’s Bank of China cut the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate to 2% from 2.3% 

September 24, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 24 September
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - EUR/JPY advanced in Europe, but the USD fell in North America after weak consumer confidence data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Focus on 1.3436 in USD- and CAD-driven trade

September 24, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Asterisk denotes strength of level
16:10 BST - Choppy trade around 1.3500 has given way to the anticipated break, with prices currently pressuring support at the 1.3465 weekly low of 6 September in both USD- and CAD-driven trade. Intraday studies are negative and daily readings are also falling, high

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China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC

      Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production.  However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects.  Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe

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China Steps Up Support, But Not a Game changer
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:39 AM UTC

China has surprised and cut the 7 day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, with a 50bps cuts in the RRR rate.  Combined with other measures this is a step-up in support and could help GDP on the margin, but the measures are not game changers as monetary policy is currently ineffective.  While furth

Chartbook: Chart EUR/JPY: Consolidating at year low, room for further losses
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 7:24 AM UTC

Turned sharply lower at the start of Q3 from the fresh multi-year high at 175.40

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 September
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 5:28 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected

September 23, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 23 September
Freemium Article

September 23, 2024 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - Weak European PMIs weighed on the EUR, though the USD was mostly softer elsewhere. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure in CAD-driven trade

September 23, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break lower in CAD-driven trade

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from the 1.3330 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

September 23, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Cautious trade following the test of strong resistance at the 1.3330 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a pullback