Continuum Economics

May 09, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 9 May

May 9, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly slightly softer in a subdued day of trading.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher

May 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3900

This week's five highlights

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed

UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero

May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1). But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum

Chart GBP/USD Update: Reached 1.3200/33 - studies continue to track lower

May 9, 2025 7:24 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to the test of strong support at the 1.3200 break level and the 1.3233 weekly low of 23 April

Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 May

May 9, 2025 4:56 AM UTC

Japan March Labor Cash Earnings +2.1% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending pullback from 1.3435 resistance, 1.3200 at risk

May 9, 2025 2:05 AM UTC

Under pressure as break of the 1.3260/1.3233 support confirms a top pattern at the 1.3435 high and see room for deeper pullback

May 08, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 8 May

May 8, 2025 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced on optimism on trade. A deal with the UK helped, but the main impetus was Trump comments raising hopes for progress in weekend talks with China.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Turning higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

May 8, 2025 3:31 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a break higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade

May 8, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to a fresh pullback

Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak

May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides. The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 May

May 8, 2025 5:16 AM UTC

Trump says he’ll announce “major” trade deal Thursday
Chinese Embassy in the US says China will not compromise its principles in trade talks

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade threatens a top pattern at 1.3400/35 highs

May 8, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade above the 1.3260/1.3233 support

May 07, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2025 8:00 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw a marginal dip on the FOMC statement but ended firmer after Powell’s press conference.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Continued pressure on 1.3780/00 - studies leaning lower

May 7, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within support at the 1.3780 monthly low of 21 April and congestion around 1.3800

Eurozone Labor Market: Rising Supply Adding to Lower Wage Pressures

May 7, 2025 9:34 AM UTC

With the EZ jobless rate nestling at record lows, it would support the ECB assessment that the EZ labor market is strong, the central bank seeing only a small rise in the jobless rate this year and on to be reversed from early next year onwards. However, that glosses over the fact that the labor m

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced beneath 1.3400

May 7, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 1.3400 is giving way to anticipated selling interest

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

India Launches Missile Strikes on Alleged Terror Camps in Pakistan
U.S.-China to meet on trade

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend choppy trade above 1.3260/33 support

May 7, 2025 1:49 AM UTC

Extend choppy trade above the 1.3260/1.3233 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

May 06, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally weaker, with losses becoming broader based in North American trade.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending pressure on 1.3780/00 - studies leaning lower

May 6, 2025 3:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within support at the 1.3780 monthly low of 21 April and congestion around 1.3800

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade - gains to remain limited

May 6, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at the 1.3233 weekly low of 23 April

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2025 5:15 AM UTC

Regional sentiment is upbeat on Tuesday

Standoff Renewed: India and Pakistan Edge Closer to the Brink

May 6, 2025 3:33 AM UTC

India–Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, prompting sweeping diplomatic, military, and economic measures on both sides. New Delhi has ordered mock civilian defence drills and restricted the flow of river Chenab. Additionally, ceasefire violations a