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September 17, 2025
Bank of Canada - Clear consensus to ease, we expect two further 25bps moves
September 17, 2025 3:46 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to ease today for the first time since March, by 25bps to 2.50% was as the market expected. We expect two further easings from the BoC, in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2025, which would take the rate to 2.0%, which is likely to prove the floor.
SNB Preview (Sep 25). Staying at Zero Amid Credit Cross Currents?
September 17, 2025 9:01 AM UTC
Having the SNB cut the policy rate by 25 bp back to zero in June, as widely expected, we see no further change for the time being, and with little likelihood of any move at the quarterly assessment due later this month (Sep 25). Indeed, despite barely positive inflation, markets have priced out wh
UK CPI Review: A Pause Before a Peak?
September 17, 2025 6:29 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th
September 16, 2025
U.S. August Retail Sales - Still Resilient
September 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
August retail sales with a 0.6% increase, with the ex-auto and ex auto and gasoline gains both at 0.7%, are stronger than expected and suggest continued consumer resilience despite a slowing in employment growth. The rise modestly exceeds a 0.5% rise in CPI commodity prices in August.
September 15, 2025
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 23): Riksbank To Deliver Final Rate Cut?
September 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Although noting the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises, we adhere to our view that a further but final rate cut is looming and probably at the Sep 23 verdict. Indeed, we were disappointed that the Riksbank did not deliver a
September 12, 2025
UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs
September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer