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March 03, 2026
EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return
March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC
Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next. Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%
March 02, 2026
Iran: What Length For War?
March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC
· If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism. If the war is more prolonged (ie months) then oil/gas supplies could be sque
February 27, 2026
Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals
February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%.
February 26, 2026
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
February 26, 2026 3:22 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou
February 25, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation as Goods May Soon Take Core Below Target
February 25, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is possible that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next. Indeed, we see the headline rate edging up to 1.8% in the February flash mainly due to ener