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February 27, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent
The broad risk sentiment is sour

February 26, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 26 February
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mixed with Trump tariff comments hurting the EUR but giving brief support to the CAD. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Minor consolidation has given way to further CAD-driven gains

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Eurozone: Gauging ECB Neutral Amid a Wandering R-Star
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

It is clear that, especially with another official rate cut due at the looming ECB Council meeting (Mar 6), the existing debate about how restrictive policy will be may only intensify.  Indeed, the debate is already quite vocal, led by the hawks who are trying to argue for policy pause at least. 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Range trade
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 February
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 5:13 AM UTC

Australian January monthly CPI 2.5% y/y
The US House has passed the Republican Budget plan
China not happy with Canada, citing disrupt international trade rules, harm global supply chain

February 25, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 25 February
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 8:31 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly weaker as worries built on US economic prospects, but USD/CAD rose on continued tariff concerns. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Higher in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp CAD-driven break higher

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test lower
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

Still little change

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 February
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 5:27 AM UTC

Japan PPI Services for January +3.1% y/y
Trump confirmed that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect on March 4

February 24, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 24 February
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 8:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw some gains in Europe, led by EUR/USD slippage, but stabilized in North America, apart from USD/CAD rising on Trump tariff comments.  

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 4:35 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 1.4175 - 1.4245 range

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Germany: A New but Hampered Government
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

The German election delivered few surprises with the electorate swinging even more clearly away from the political middle ground.  It clearly means that many difficult decisions lie ahead with questions over the effectiveness of the likely new government.  The result is only likely to inflame US c

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - background studies rising
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.2700

Asia Summary and Highlights 24th February
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

Germany Election Resulte Cheers Euro

February 21, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:58 PM UTC

Overview - Weak services PMI data was seen in France and the US. The USD was mostly firmer, but USD/JPY fell sharply with equities and UST yields. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod

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Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC

The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB.   The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending January gains
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to a break higher

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

February 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited significant news, the USD was generally softer, particularly in North America. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - downside tests to remain limited
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 7:14 AM UTC

Australia January 2025 unemployment rate 4.1%

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Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Steadies IDR
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

In line with our view Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. The weakening rupiah and external uncertainties reman critical factors influencing the rate decision. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its Janu

February 19, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 8:38 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly firmer, but ended off its highs after the FOMC minutes were digested. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited corrective gains
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

Cautious trade above support at 1.4175 is giving way to a move higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced trade - background studies rising
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies and overbought flat daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBNZ cut by 50bps as expected
BOJ's policy board member Takata says must hike rate more if economy moves in line with BOJ forecasts
Trump says U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips by April 2

February 18, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:28 PM UTC

Overview - In generally subdued trading the USD was modestly firmer overall. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

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Europe: Economic Consequences of Likely Defence Build-Up
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 3:29 PM UTC

As Europe is forced to consider a massive and rapid ramp up to its relatively mediocre defence spending (Figure 1) as it contemplates a reduction in military support from the US, key questions emerge as the economic effect(s).  Will it boost or inhibit growth, add to inflation, and how will/should

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation - studies rising
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade 

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

February 17, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 1.4175

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.2600/40 - studies rising
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

The test of resistance at congestion around 1.2600 and the 1.2640 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to consolidation

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 February
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April

February 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:18 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was marginally softer in Europe, and losses accelerated after weak US retail sales data. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
U.S. January CPI A clear disappointment
USD/JPY Getting the Ebbs and Flows
UK GDP Surprise Resilience

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending losses
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

 Prices remain under pressure following break of the 1.4300/1.4270 support to extend steep drop from the 1.4793 high

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BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4