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August 14, 2026
August 13, 2026
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
August 12, 2026
Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure
August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S. No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the
August 11, 2026
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
August 10, 2026
Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow
August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas