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November 20, 2024
Eurozone: ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
November 20, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
It seems that worries about weaker growth are reverberating more discernibly and more broadly within the ECB. Indeed, the worries may now be at least twofold. Clearly, weaker growth risks possible (added) downside risks to inflation, with BoI Governor Panetta yesterday warning that restrictive mon
November 19, 2024
Brazil and Mexico Labour Productivity: A Headwind for Growth
November 19, 2024 12:03 PM UTC
Brazil and Mexico labour productivity has been stagnant in the last years, with both countries registering lower labour productivity levels than they were 12 years ago, with the gap with U.S. only widening. With both countries approaching full-employment, measures will need to be taken to foster gro
November 18, 2024
UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst. After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March. These numbers ar
November 15, 2024
U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes
November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC
October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.
China Data: Mixed Data Backs More Stimulus
November 15, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
China October data is mixed with a bounce in retail sales helped by government trade ins and a holiday, but industrial production and housing construction disappointing. This all argues for further fiscal stimulus. However, given our view that some tariff increases against China by the U.S will
November 14, 2024
November 13, 2024
Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October
November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and
U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report
November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F
November 12, 2024
UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?
November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co
November 11, 2024
China Yuan10trn Package: Shifting Debt Not Stimulus
November 11, 2024 10:06 AM UTC
Details of the Yuan10trn fiscal package show that it is all directed at a debt swap for LGFV’s and repackaging hidden local government debt. This will have little net fiscal stimulus. True fiscal stimulus will be seen for 2025 GDP growth, but it could be delayed until further details are seen
India CPI Preview: Food prices to weigh on headline CPI
November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon
November 08, 2024
UK GDP Preview (Nov 15): Momentum Slowing?
November 8, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may have been something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only
November 07, 2024
FOMC eases by 25bps, statement avoids dovish hints
November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC
The FOMC has eased by 25bps as expected and the statement looks fairly similar to that released on September 18, when rates were cut by 50bps. However, changes in the statement suggest that the Fed has not seen any further reasons for dovishness since its September 18 meeting.
Germany: More Headwinds for an Ailing Economy?
November 7, 2024 9:10 AM UTC
After months of clear internal tensions, the three-party coalition collapsed on Wednesday after Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Social Democrat) sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner (leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP). The two had been seeing repeated rifts on spending and economic reforms, wi