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March 31, 2025
March 29, 2025
Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025
March 27, 2025
Car Tariffs Then Lenient Reciprocal Tariffs?
March 27, 2025 8:59 AM UTC
The 25% tariffs on cars underlines that tariffs are not just about getting better trade deals, but in Trump’s view raising (tax) revenue and trying to shift production back to the U.S. Combined with other tariffs being implemented, plus policy uncertainty, we see a moderate overall hit from t
March 26, 2025
UK Spring Fiscal Statement – A Patch-up Not a Repair Job?
March 26, 2025 1:39 PM UTC
Chancellor Reeves never wanted a fiscal event at this juncture. But market pressure and economic weakness have forced her into a series of government spending cuts designed to shore up her recently revised fiscal goals via this so-call spring statement. The problem here is twofold. Firstly, the
March 25, 2025
German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?
March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%. This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation. Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp
March 24, 2025
China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
March 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
We look for 4.5% GDP growth in 2025. Though residential property investment will subtract less from GDP growth, net exports will also be a drag on the economy in 2025 due to the trade war with the U.S. Further fiscal stimulus beyond March’s NPC measures will be required to achieve a 5% GD
March 21, 2025
As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr
Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC
Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer
March 20, 2025
UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Stay Soft Amid Cost Pressures?
March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol
March 19, 2025
UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?
March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
March 18, 2025
Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
March 18, 2025 4:59 PM UTC
Asterisk denotes strength of level
16:30 GMT - The test below 1.4300 has bounced from 1.4265, as oversold intraday studies unwind, with prices currently trading back above 1.4300. Daily readings continue to track lower, however, and broader weekly charts are also bearish, highlighting room for fresh
