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February 21, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod

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Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC

The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB.   The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending January gains
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to a break higher

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

February 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited significant news, the USD was generally softer, particularly in North America. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - downside tests to remain limited
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 7:14 AM UTC

Australia January 2025 unemployment rate 4.1%

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Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Steadies IDR
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

In line with our view Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. The weakening rupiah and external uncertainties reman critical factors influencing the rate decision. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its Janu

February 19, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 8:38 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly firmer, but ended off its highs after the FOMC minutes were digested. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited corrective gains
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

Cautious trade above support at 1.4175 is giving way to a move higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced trade - background studies rising
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies and overbought flat daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBNZ cut by 50bps as expected
BOJ's policy board member Takata says must hike rate more if economy moves in line with BOJ forecasts
Trump says U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips by April 2

February 18, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:28 PM UTC

Overview - In generally subdued trading the USD was modestly firmer overall. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

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Europe: Economic Consequences of Likely Defence Build-Up
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 3:29 PM UTC

As Europe is forced to consider a massive and rapid ramp up to its relatively mediocre defence spending (Figure 1) as it contemplates a reduction in military support from the US, key questions emerge as the economic effect(s).  Will it boost or inhibit growth, add to inflation, and how will/should

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation - studies rising
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade 

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

February 17, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 1.4175

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.2600/40 - studies rising
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

The test of resistance at congestion around 1.2600 and the 1.2640 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to consolidation

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 February
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April

February 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:18 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was marginally softer in Europe, and losses accelerated after weak US retail sales data. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
U.S. January CPI A clear disappointment
USD/JPY Getting the Ebbs and Flows
UK GDP Surprise Resilience

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending losses
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

 Prices remain under pressure following break of the 1.4300/1.4270 support to extend steep drop from the 1.4793 high

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BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says will respond appropriately to US tariffs

February 13, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 8:43 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw losses with UST yields after US PPI data proved not quite strong enough to raise inflationary concerns. A Trump tariff announcement gave the USD only a brief lift. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 5:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.4300 has given way to the anticipated break lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

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Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality.  Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong resistance at the 1.2540 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to the anticipated test of resistance at 1.2500

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 4:57 AM UTC

Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y

February 12, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 12 February
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 8:49 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced after a stronger than expected CPI but the gains were largely erased, outside a sustained bounce in USD/JPY. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 4:58 PM UTC

Still little change

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UK CPI Preview (Feb 19): Inflation Drop to Target Deferred
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC

After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking.  This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price

Chart GBP/USD Update: Smart bounce
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

Short-term consolidation around 1.2350 has given way to a bounce

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 February
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 5:12 AM UTC

Trump says "we'll see" when asked if reciprocal tariffs are coming Wednesday
Japan Industry Minister requested the US exclude Japan from steel & aluminum tariffs

February 11, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 11 February
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 8:59 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY excepted, the USD saw modest losses after a largely uneventful Senate testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 5:04 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at congestion lows around 1.4300

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Europe’s Gas Problem Again?
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The ECB staff forecasts on March 6 will be revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, due to the surge in wholesale gas prices.  However, the ECB will likely take the view that 2 round effects from higher gas prices on balance are unlikely to boost core inflation (especially given wage tracker softness) an

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.2400 has given way to the anticipated break lower

Asia Summary and Highlights 11 February
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 5:19 AM UTC

White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries

February 10, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 10 February
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 8:45 PM UTC

Overview - FX markets were quiet in Europe and North America after responding to Trump’s latest tariffs in Asia. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy above 1.4270/00 - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 4:41 PM UTC

The test of support at the 1.4270 Fibonacci retracement and congestion lows around 1.4300 has given way to a gap higher to 1.4375

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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

The break below 1.2400 has bounced from 1.2360

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 February
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 5:23 AM UTC

Trump's 25% Universal Tariff on Steel and Aluminum Scared the market initially