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June 11, 2026
BoE Preview (Jun 18): Splits to Widen, But Stable Policy Outlook Intact
June 11, 2026 10:26 AM UTC
Not only this month, but we see the BoE being on hold for the rest of the year with rate cuts then resuming through 2027. Although markets are pricing just over two hikes from the current 3.75% with a 50%-plus probability of the first being delivered at the July 30 MPC meeting, our view is hardly
June 10, 2026
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias
June 10, 2026 4:55 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, even ex food and en
Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone
June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC
While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a
June 09, 2026
Norges Bank Preview (Jun 18): Forecast Update the Key
June 9, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh last month by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years. Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in subsequent next couple of months
June 08, 2026
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 8, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
June 05, 2026
Canada May Employment - Recent weakness largely erased, wages correct lower
June 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
Canada’s May employment report keeps the series volatile, with a strong 87.8k bounce reducing unemployment to a four month low of 6.6%, from April’s 6-month high of 6.9%. This should ease any Bank of Canada worries over the weak Q1 GDP data which saw a second straight, if marginal, decline. The
June 04, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
June 4, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave