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May 24, 2024

U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Less weak than the preliminary, with less of a bounce in inflation expectations
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

May’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a substantial fall in confidence and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The final data shows a slightly smaller fall in confidence and less evidence of rising inflation expectations.

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This week's Fed Speaker and May FOMC Minute Review
RBNZ Keeping Restrictive Rates Longer
UK Called for July Election
UK Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Canada April CPI Shows Continued Progress in the BoC core rates

May 23, 2024

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Eurozone: PMIs Offer More Positive Gimmers – Still Too Good to be True?
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 9:19 AM UTC

The latest PMI data suggest the EZ economic recovery gained further momentum in May as the composite index rose to 52.3 in May from 51.7 in April, thereby implying positive private sector growth for the third consecutive month.  We remain wary about the messages from the data (see below and Figure

May 22, 2024

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EZ HICP Preview (May 31): Core Disinflation Continues?
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 11:10 AM UTC

Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This abated in April, with the headline staying at 2.4% but with the core down a further 0.2 ppt to a 27-mth low of 2.7%, as higher fuel prices were offs

May 21, 2024

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German Data Preview (May 29): Inflation to Rise Again Albeit Amid Soft Core Rate Trends?
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings and the path down for inflation has not been smooth.  This will be even more clearly the case in the looming May numbers where a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline rate is on the

May 20, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating at 1.3590 support, scope for break
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains in consolidation above strong support at the 1.3590 Fibonacci retracement

May 17, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Still little change

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This Week's Fed Speaker
U.S. April PPI Demonstrates Worrying strength
But U.S. CPI and Retail Sales are Seeing Some Loss of Momentum
UK Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Resilient Wage Pressure
Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures For China

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - potential for a later test above 1.2700
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Little change, as falling intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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China: Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Overall, the April industrial production suggests Q2 GDP should be reasonable, but weak retail sales suggests H2 2024 can be disappointing. We stick with a 4.6% forecast for 2024 GDP growth.    

May 16, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 3:37 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding oversold intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics turn near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. April Industrial Production - Underlying picture looks flat
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture. 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong resistance at the 1.2755 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

Late-April gains have reached congestion resistance at 1.2700

May 15, 2024

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains
Freemium Article

May 15, 2024 3:40 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached strong resistance at the 1.2665 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

May 15, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

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Eurozone: Consumers - Still Missing?
Paying Article

May 15, 2024 10:34 AM UTC

Revised national account data confirmed the upside surprise in the preliminary data with EZ GDP rising 0.3% q/q.  The question is whether this emergence from the modest H2 2023 recession is the start of more sustained momentum.  We think not, mainly due to what are still weak consumer fundamentals

May 14, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 14, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

May 14, 2024 7:24 AM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 1.2560 is giving way to anticipated consolidation

May 13, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited gains - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

May 13, 2024 3:45 PM UTC

No change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.3700

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating
Freemium Article

May 13, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

May 10, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

May 10, 2024 3:50 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3700 has given way to the anticipated break

U.S. May Michigan CSI - Lowest since November, inflation expectations highest since November
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

May’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 67.4 from 77.2 is the weakest since November 2023 and hints at a loss of momentum in the economy, but with higher inflation expectations, the 1-year view up significantly to 3.5% from 3.2% and the 5-10 year view up marginally to 3.1% from 3.0%.

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Ukraine War Update
This Week's Fed Speakers
U.S. Initial Claims rise but signs of labor market slowing still tentative
RBA Change wordings of guidance but no change in heart
UK GDP Shows Clearer Growth Momentum But Mainly Import Led

Chart GBP/USD Update: Bounce back in consolidation
Freemium Article

May 10, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

Anticipated tests lower have bounced smartly from congestion support at 1.2450

May 09, 2024

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Mexico CPI Review: 0.2% Growth in April
Freemium Article

May 9, 2024 6:11 PM UTC

April's CPI data, despite a 0.2% m/m growth, reveals a significant y/y uptick to 4.6% from March's 4.4%, challenging norms due to electricity tariff adjustments. Core CPI maintained stability with a 0.2% increase, while Core Goods CPI rose by 0.3% and Services CPI by 0.1%, accumulating a 5.2% y/y gr

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

May 9, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

May 08, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

May 8, 2024 3:52 PM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.3700 is meeting selling interest around 1.3760

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 8, 2024 7:27 AM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to the anticipated break below 1.2500

May 07, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

May 7, 2024 3:47 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the smart bounce from above support at 1.3590/00

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure
Freemium Article

May 7, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

May 03, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

May 3, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.3700 has met buying interest just above support at 1.3590/00

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 10:29 AM UTC

BoJ Intervened Twice
And see sentiment turned lower in USD/JPY
FOMC Notes Lack of Further Inflation Progress
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Still strong if a little less so
Canada Q1 GDP looking less positive than previously projected

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - room for a test higher
Freemium Article

May 3, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at the 1.2569 high of 29 April

May 02, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

May 2, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion support at 1.3700

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced above 1.2500
Freemium Article

May 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath 1.2500 has given way to a bounce back above here

May 01, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade in broad range
Freemium Article

May 1, 2024 3:48 PM UTC

Sharp gains have met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 1.3800

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
Freemium Article

May 1, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break below 1.2500

April 30, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Smart reversal in USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 30, 2024 3:56 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a USD- and CAD-driven reversal higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating gains - daily studies edging higher
Freemium Article

April 30, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 1.2569

April 29, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 29, 2024 3:40 PM UTC

Little change, as a tick higher in intraday studies keeps near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced at 1.2500/18 - 1.2530 - daily studies remain positive
Freemium Article

April 29, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

Still little change

April 26, 2024

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

BoJ Keep Rates on hold with upward revision in CPI
USD/JPY Rally Continues on Shaky Ground
U.S. GDP Slows on Imports and Inventories
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing
UK Services Inflation Resilient