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September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati
September 10, 2024 9:14 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s August inflation level is expected to trend down to 3.5% yr/yr, from 3.53% y/y in July, reflecting higher base effects. Interest rate cut is unlikely though as the RBI perceives this as a temporary reprieve.
September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower
September 5, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and the Fed cutting to 3.00-3.25% by end 2025 (here), uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown. If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely
September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit
September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp
August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress
August 28, 2024 1:42 PM UTC
Despite the market's push for a rate hike by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB), we believe the current policy rate of 10.5% is sufficiently restrictive to ensure inflation converges. However, de-anchored inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, strong economic activity, and a new BCB president desiri