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September 18, 2026
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
September 17, 2026
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
September 16, 2026
EM Money Supply: Trends Diverge from Policy Rates
September 16, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
· M2 growth in China remains weak (pre 2015 the trend had been double digit), despite the low level of nominal and real policy rates. This reflects credit demand and supply problems. M2 growth will likely remain restrained by Chinese standards and act as a drag of nominal and real GDP
September 15, 2026
China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses
September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv
September 14, 2026
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un