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July 17, 2026
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
ECB: Bark No Bite
July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher. We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t
July 16, 2026
UK GDP and BOE Question
July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC
· UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas. H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A
July 15, 2026
Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely
July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e
Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely
July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e
AI Optimism and Credit Markets?
July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl
July 14, 2026
July 13, 2026
Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields
July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· 10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation). 10yr nominal yields could