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July 03, 2026
July 02, 2026
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
July 01, 2026
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
June 30, 2026
AI Boom and Bust?
June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC
• While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand. For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re
June 29, 2026
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our