Freemium Content

December 23, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 23 Dec

December 23, 2025 5:55 PM UTC

Overview - USD rallied in NY on better than expected U.S. GDP data for Q3.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Pressuring strong support

December 23, 2025 5:36 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support within the 1.3680 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.3720~ lows from August-September

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong resistance at the 1.3555 Fibonacci retracement

December 23, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached congestion resistance at 1.3500

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending November gains

December 23, 2025 1:58 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.3455 high of last week has given way to renewed buying interest to extend gains from the 1.3010, November low

December 22, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower

December 22, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.3800 is giving way to the anticipated pullback

North American Summary and Highlights 22 Dec

December 22, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Overview - USD weakness was the story of the day in North America, after USD consolidation in Europe. Year end flows were the driver, rather than any news.

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring resistance at 1.3400/50

December 22, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

The anticipated drift lower towards congestion support at 1.3300 has not been seen

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend consolidation at 1.3400 level

December 22, 2025 1:42 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at the 1.3400 level following pullback from the 1.3455 high

December 19, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 19 Dec

December 19, 2025 8:34 PM UTC

Overview - JPY weakness was the story of the day, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY both moving sharply higher in Europe, and marginally extending the move in North America.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation

December 19, 2025 4:44 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.3800

This week's five highlights

December 19, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

BoJ Hike by 25bps As Expected
BoE Splits More Entrenched
Is the tariff impact fading Shown in U.S. November CPI
Sweden Riksbank On Hold and For Some Time Ahead
Norges Bank Still Far Too Cautious Despite Clear Output Gap

Chart GBP/USD Update: Resistance at 1.3400/50 - daily studies under pressure

December 19, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

The retest above congestion resistance at 1.3400 has met renewed selling interest at the 1.3450 Fibonacci retracement

Mexico: 25bps Cut and Now Pause

December 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.0% as expected with a downward revision to 0.3% for 2025 GDP growth. Below trend GDP is forecast in 2026 and we see this prompting further easing in March and June 2026 by 25bps each, but MXN weakness restraining Banxico pace. We then see Banxico going on hold for the rem

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend choppy trade around 1.3400 level

December 19, 2025 1:59 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade around the 1.3400 level following pullback from the 1.3455 high

December 18, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 18 Dec

December 18, 2025 8:53 PM UTC

Overview - Softer than expected US CPI data saw the USD slip but it ended well off its lows. GBP saw some support from a BoE vote showing four dissents from a decision to ease.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade

December 18, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.3800

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy in range - daily studies under pressure

December 18, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

Choppy trade above 1.3300 is giving way to consolidation around 1.3370

Chart GBP/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from 1.3455 high

December 18, 2025 1:37 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from the 1.3455 high as prices unwind overbought intraday and daily studies

December 17, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 17 Dec

December 17, 2025 8:19 PM UTC

Overview - GBP slipped on a softer than expected UK CPI. GBP/USD later reversed its losses but EUR/GBP remained firmer.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher

December 17, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.3720~ lows from August-September has given way to a bounce

Chart GBP/USD Update: Sharp pullback from the 1.3450 Fibonacci retracement

December 17, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

The break above congestion resistance at 1.3400 has reached the 1.3450 Fibonacci retracement

UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?

December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures. This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp