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July 25, 2025
CBR Reduced its Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Softens
July 25, 2025 11:41 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced policy rate by 200 bps to 18% on July 25 taking into account that inflation slowed to 9.4% in June from 9.9% in May; MoM price growth marked the lowest hike after August 2024; and the inflation expectations declined to 13% in June fro
July 24, 2025
Easing Cycle Restarts: CBRT Reduced the Key Rate to 43% on July 24
July 24, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 300 bps to 43% during the MPC meeting on July 24 taking the deceleration trend in inflation and relative TRY stability in June into account. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the underly
July 23, 2025
July 22, 2025
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Jul 30): A Pause that Does Not Refresh?
July 22, 2025 9:13 AM UTC
For an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and above trend growth of 1.5% in the year to Q1, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. We think this will continue to be the case even where the looming Q2 data may show a modest con
July 21, 2025
July 18, 2025
Trump’s and Fed Easing
July 18, 2025 9:34 AM UTC
• Trump goal of substantially lower short-term rates could be achieved with a recession, but otherwise is unlikely even when Fed chair Powell is replaced. The majority of voting FOMC members will make decisions based on economics not politics. However, Trump fixation with lower rates an