UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?

November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak.  Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend choppy trade below 1.3200/15 highs

November 19, 2025 1:37 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade below the 1.3200/15 highs of last week

UK Budget Outlook (Nov 26): The Fiscal Blame Game – Yet Again!

November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

If not the most keenly awaited Budget for some years, Chancellor Reeve’s updates on Nov 26 is certainly the one that has attracted the most speculation and from all sides.  What is clear is that amid several factors, a marked fiscal tightening is in store.  This though now seems as if it will be

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating

November 18, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Still little change, as intraday studies turn mixed and prompt further choppy trade within the 1.3100 - 1.3200 rang

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation

November 17, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade within the 1.3100 - 1.3200 range

Japan: Money Begins to Pour

November 17, 2025 3:00 AM UTC

Japan Pm Takaichi began her stimulus plan

Chart GBP/USD Update: Range-bound in consolidation

November 17, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Limited on break above the 1.3200 level as prices settled back to consolidate gains from the 1.3010 low

North American Summary and Highlights 14 Nov

November 14, 2025 8:45 PM UTC

Overview -
The USD ended little changed, rising in Europe before a slide early in North America, which was subsequently largely corrected.

ECB – In a Good Place or Just Complacent?

November 14, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

The ECB is of the view that downside growth risks have dissipated somewhat, this possibly helped by its recent actions which it suggests leave its current policy stance in a good place.  However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s alleged resilience, we think, the

North American Summary and Highlights 13 Nov

November 13, 2025 8:51 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly weaker but stronger against the commodity currencies as equities weakened. 

UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best

November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking.  Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower from the 1.3190 high

November 13, 2025 1:51 AM UTC

Leaning lower from Monday's 1.3190 high as prices consolidate gains from the 1.3010 low

UK Gilts: Fiscal, Politics and BOE

November 12, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

·        2yr Gilt yields have scope to fall through 2026, as we see growth and inflation slowing more than the BOE and this will likely see the MPC changing view and cutting policy rates to 3.25% in H1 2026. Though a pause could then be seen, we see one final BOE cut then being delivered to