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September 10, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 10 September
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 6:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed on a quiet day, weaker versus the JPY but stronger versus the CAD. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Testing strong resistance at 1.3600/30
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 3:44 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated gains, as intraday studies tick higher

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Mexico CPI Review: 0% Inflation in August as Expected
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati

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India CPI Review: Easing Prices, but Monsoon Risks Loom
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

Bottom line: India’s August inflation level is expected to trend down to 3.5% yr/yr, from 3.53% y/y in July, reflecting higher base effects. Interest rate cut is unlikely though as the RBI perceives this as a temporary reprieve. 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 7:33 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.3100 has bounced from 1.3055/60

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 September
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 5:18 AM UTC

Australian September Westpac Consumer Confidence Index 84.6
Australian August business confidence -4
Japan PM contender Kato wants Japanese to have higher wages

September 09, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - strong resistance at 1.3600/30
Freemium Article

September 9, 2024 3:31 PM UTC

Little change, as flattening overbought intraday studies prompt consolidation beneath resistance at 1.3600

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

September 9, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 1.3200 has extended to 1.3239

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 September
Freemium Article

September 9, 2024 5:13 AM UTC

Japan (revised) Q2 GDP +0.7% q/q (preliminary was +0.8%)
Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ's Ueda saying more rate hikes ahead

September 06, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 6 September
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - US employment data was weaker than expected but probably not sufficiently so to see the Fed easing by 50bs in September. USD/JPY ended weaker but the USD advanced against the riskier currencies. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sharp bounce in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 3:59 PM UTC

The test below 1.3500 has bounced smartly from 1.3465 in CAD-driven trad

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U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3150 has given way to a drift higher

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 September
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 5:28 AM UTC

Japan July household spending +0.1% y/y 
Risk sentiment soft so far on Friday's Asia session

September 05, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 5 September
Freemium Article

September 5, 2024 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell on ADP data but recovered on ISM services data, ending little changed overall. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

September 5, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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A Harder Landing and the Fed
Freemium Article

September 5, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and the Fed cutting to 3.00-3.25% by end 2025 (here), uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown.  If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely

Asia Summary and Highlights 5 September
Freemium Article

September 5, 2024 5:20 AM UTC

Australian July Trade Balance surplus of AUD 6.009bn
Japan July Labor Cash Earnings +3.6% y/y

September 04, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 4 September
Freemium Article

September 4, 2024 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD, already marginally on the defensive in Europe, slipped on weaker US job openings data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in range
Freemium Article

September 4, 2024 3:44 PM UTC

The anticipated minor test of resistance at 1.3600 has not been seen

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test below 1.3100 - daily studies continue to point lower
Freemium Article

September 4, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 4 September
Freemium Article

September 4, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

Australian Q2 2024 GDP +0.2% q/q
Japan’s $1.75 tln state pension fund may step up domestic purchases

September 03, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 3 September
Freemium Article

September 3, 2024 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The JPY extended gains in Europe. Oil prices slipped sharply which depressed UST yields, but related losses in the USD proved temporary. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for extension towards 1.3600/30
Freemium Article

September 3, 2024 3:31 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated gains

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August
Freemium Article

September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit

September 02, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Potential for a test above 1.3500
Freemium Article

September 2, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

September 2, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 1.3100

Asia Summary and Highlights 2 Sep
Freemium Article

September 2, 2024 5:22 AM UTC

Japan Q2 business capex +7.4% y/y
Australian ANZ job ads down 2.1% m/m

September 01, 2024

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India GDP Review: A Sobering Start to FY25
Freemium Article

September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp

August 30, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 30 August
Freemium Article

August 30, 2024 7:44 PM UTC

Overview -
The USD advanced after subdued core PCE price data, with the income and spending details not seen as soft enough to justify a 50bps Fed easing in September.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for a test above 1.3500
Freemium Article

August 30, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have reached congestion resistance at 1.350

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Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July
Paying Article

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

August 30, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

The anticipated break back below 1.3200 has reached 1.3145

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 August
Freemium Article

August 30, 2024 4:52 AM UTC

Aug Tokyo Headline inflation 2.6% y/y prior 2.2%

August 29, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 29 August
Freemium Article

August 29, 2024 7:56 PM UTC

Overview - The EUR slipped in Europe on softer German CPI data while an upward US GDP revision gave the USD a modest boost in North America. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

August 29, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above the 1.3436 low of 28 August

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

August 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China and Taiwan.  

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 August
Freemium Article

August 29, 2024 5:11 AM UTC

NZ ANZ business outlook for August 50.6 versus 27.1 prior
Australia capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2%

August 28, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 28 August
Freemium Article

August 28, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The EUR slipped in Europe while the USD was marginally firmer elsewhere as equities slipped. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating losses - studies remain under pressure
Freemium Article

August 28, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 1.3430, where rising intraday studies are prompting short-term reactions

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Brazil: The Case for a Hike?
Paying Article

August 28, 2024 1:42 PM UTC

Despite the market's push for a rate hike by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB), we believe the current policy rate of 10.5% is sufficiently restrictive to ensure inflation converges. However, de-anchored inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, strong economic activity, and a new BCB president desiri