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March 21, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 7:13 PM UTC

Overview - A generally quiet day saw the USD make some gains after Trump suggested there would be flexibility on tariffs. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

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As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC

Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged
A Placeholder Meeting for BoJ
BoE Being Careful Amid Data Conflicts
Everything Unchanged for Riksbank 
SNB 25 bp Cut Likely To Last

Chart GBP/USD Update: Drifting lower
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as selling interest from resistance at the 1.3000 break level keeps near-term sentiment under pressure

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 5:14 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

March 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 March
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally stronger in Europe but stabilized in North America. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy in range - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

 The anticipated gains from support at 1.4300 have met sharp selling interest around 1.4400

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 8:18 AM UTC

Little change, as strong selling interest around resistance at the 1.3000 break level keeps near-term sentiment cautious

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UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Stay Soft Amid Cost Pressures?
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 March
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Trump says the Fed should cut rate as tariffs hit the economy
New Zealand Exits Recession

March 19, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 19 March
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 7:57 PM UTC

Overview -
The USD advanced into the FOMC decision but slipped back after. Rates and the median dots were left unchanged, but QT was scaled back and growth forecasts revised down, though inflation was seen higher in 2025.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at 1.4300

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3000
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

Consolidation around resistance at 1.3000 is giving way to a drift lower

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UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 March
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

BoJ kept rates unchanged

March 18, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 18 March
Freemium Article

March 18, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly softer but edged higher against the commodity currencies as equities struggled. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Freemium Article

March 18, 2025 4:59 PM UTC

Asterisk denotes strength of level
16:30 GMT - The test below 1.4300 has bounced from 1.4265, as oversold intraday studies unwind, with prices currently trading back above 1.4300. Daily readings continue to track lower, however, and broader weekly charts are also bearish, highlighting room for fresh

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

March 18, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a move higher to pressure resistance at the 1.2988 monthly high of 12 March and 1.3000

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 March
Freemium Article

March 18, 2025 5:28 AM UTC

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming that "extensive strikes" had been launched on Gaza

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BoJ Preview: Placeholder Meeting
Freemium Article

March 18, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will not change rate nor forward guidance in the March meeting.

March 17, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 17 March
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 7:48 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly softer though USD/JPY rebounded from early losses supported by UST yields.  

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 4:19 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a break lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Remains Watchful
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia's upcoming monetary policy decisions will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic economic indicators and global financial conditions. With a focus now tilted slightly more towards economic growth than in previous years, BI could surprise markets with its timing and decisions, dependi

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 March
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 5:14 AM UTC

USD opened higher on Monday
US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment not comforting
Zhejiang trade-in subsidy program offering up to 15,000 RMB for new electric vehicle (EV) purchases and 13,000 RMB for gasoline-powered cars
Shenzen announced eased housing finance rules

March 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 March
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 7:13 PM UTC

Overview - The main story of the day was a rise in EUR/USD as Germany reached agreement on the debt package. This supported equities despite the Michigan CSI slipping on a surge in inflation expectations.  

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade around resistance at 1.4400 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. Dollar Under Trump
Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
U.S. February CPI Renewed progress, but threatened by tariffs
Bank of Canada Another Cut
PBOC Slow Cuts with 5% Nominal GDP

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

Little change, as deteriorating intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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UK GDP Review: Previous Resilience Gives Way to Softer Surveys
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive.  The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 March
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 5:13 AM UTC

Shanghai Composite reached new yearly high

March 13, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 13 March
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 7:41 PM UTC

Overview - It was a subdued session, though equity weakness weighed on USD/JPY and lifted USD/CAD.  

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 4:31 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around resistance at 1.4400

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Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced at fresh year highs beneath 1.3000
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

Still little change

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 March
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 4:59 AM UTC

Japan's Shunto wage negotiations show most organizations asking wage hikes nearly twice as large as last year
Reprieve in equities did not last

March 12, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 12 March
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - The USD had little clear direction with a dip on a softer than expected CPI being brief. EUR and JPY underperformed the riskier currencies.  

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.4500 has given way to a pullback

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Bank of Canada - With risks on both sides, timing matters
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada eased as expected by 25bps to 2.75%, a level it sees as neutral. Given massive uncertainty clear forward guidance is impossible but they made no attempt to hide the gravity of the problem, Governor Tiff Macklem stating Canada is facing a new crisis from which the economic impact c

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced beneath fresh 2025 year high
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 March
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 5:12 AM UTC

Sentiment calmer on Wednesday
Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs take effect
Canada warns of oil export restrictions to U.S.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says higher long term rates reflecting market views on economy
Japan’s Major Firms to Offer Strong Wage Hikes 

March 11, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 11 March
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - European currencies advanced in the European morning and sustained their gains in North America as Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. North America saw the CAD and equites fall and subsequently rebound on tariff developments. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 5:20 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh run higher

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Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 20): Time to Pause?
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 10:33 AM UTC

Having delivered in January, the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (down to 2.25%) having dropped 1.75 ppt in eight months.  Especially given the recent upside CPI surpris

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring 1.2900/20 - studies rising
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Asia Summary and Highlights 11 March
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 4:29 AM UTC

Japan Trade Minister Muto received no assurance Japan would be exempt from US tariffs
Japan Q4 2024 final GDP +0.6% q/q
January Household Spending +0.8% y/y

March 10, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 10 March
Freemium Article

March 10, 2025 8:00 PM UTC

Overview - Growing economic fears sent equities sharply slower. The JPY was the primary beneficiary in Europe but the USD advanced in North America, particularly versus the riskier currencies. 

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Country Insights: Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets
Freemium Article

March 10, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

The latest update of our Country Insights model ranks the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait (KWT), and Taiwan (TWN) as the strongest performers in our Fiscal Policy’s sub-factors among selected emerging markets. Conversely, Egypt (EGY), Brazil (BRA), and China (CHN) rank among the weakest within