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July 26, 2024
CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars
July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol
July 25, 2024
BoE Preview (Aug 1): Time to Get Less Restrictive
July 25, 2024 3:20 PM UTC
We still think that the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 bp at the Aug 1 MPC verdict and that that two further such cuts may arrive by end-year. We accept that stubborn services inflation may harden the hawks, despite softer wage pressures. But while the recent Bernanke Report recommended phasing ou
Eurozone Data Preview (Jul 30): Fading Momentum?
July 25, 2024 9:19 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy actually avoided what was previously suggested to have been a modest recession in H2 last year. Moreover, the economy sparked back in Q1, albeit against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences but where
July 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
July 24, 2024 4:17 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 25bps easing to 4.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem stated there was a clear consensus behind the decision. The BoC’s tone was generally dovish despite looking for stronger GDP growth going forward. We now expect 25bps easings at each of the remaining
July 23, 2024
EZ HICP Preview (Jul 31): Disinflation Continues - Below-Target Rate Looming?
July 23, 2024 10:09 AM UTC
The clear disinflation trend was still evident even after higher and higher-than-expected May numbers, where the headline moved up from 2.4% to a three-month high of 2.6%. That disinflation trend looks more discernible after the partial drop back to 2.5% seen in the June HICP, albeit with some far
July 22, 2024
German Data Preview (Jul 30): Inflation Stable Ahead of Fresh Fall in Coming Months?
July 22, 2024 3:10 PM UTC
Base effects have caused the German disinflation process not to be smooth and this was even more clearly the case in recent numbers where after a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline HICP rate occurred rising 0.4 ppt to 2.8% in May was followed by a drop back to 2.5% in June, 0
July 19, 2024
Canada May Retail Sales - Cleary weak
July 19, 2024 12:50 PM UTC
Canada’s May retail sales data is unambiguously weak, with a 0.8% decline overall compared to an advance estimate of -0.6%, a 1.3% fall ex autos, a 1.4% fall ex autos and gasoline, and a 0.7% decline in real terms. The advance estimate for June is also negative at -0.3%.
July 18, 2024
July 17, 2024
Brazil and Mexico: Supply and Demand Factors Affecting Inflation
July 17, 2024 6:52 PM UTC
We decomposed inflation in Brazil and Mexico using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, focusing on Imported Inflation, Demand, Supply, and Monetary Policy. Our analysis from 2003 to 2024 for Brazil and 2005 to 2024 for Mexico shows Brazil's inflation was primarily driven by supply and imported infl
UK CPI Review: Inflation Stays at Target and Services Stay Resilient?
July 17, 2024 6:35 AM UTC
As has been made clear by policy-makers, labor market and particularly CPI data are crucial to BoE thinking about the timing and even the existence of any start to an easing cycle. In this regard the fact that headline CPI inflation dropped back to the 2% target in May is important but far from de
July 16, 2024
Eurozone Banks See Consumer Loan Demand Recover
July 16, 2024 8:58 AM UTC
There were more positive straws in the wind in the latest (July 2024) bank lending survey (BLS), providing some reassurance for the ECB ahead of this week’s Council meeting. Most notable was a reported increase in demand for both housing loans and consumer credit for the first time since 2022 and
July 15, 2024
Inflation Heatwave: India's CPI and WPI Climb
July 15, 2024 6:35 PM UTC
India's inflation surged in June with wholesale prices hitting a 16-month high at 3.36% y/y, driven by soaring food costs. The CPI also rose to 5.1% y/y, reversing a five-month decline, prompting caution from the RBI, which anticipates inflation to ease as seasonal factors stabilise. Governor Shakti
Prabowo's Economic Vision: Ambitious Targets and Fiscal Debates for 2025
July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC
Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900. The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2
July 12, 2024
U.S. July Michigan CSI - Lower, as are inflation expectations
July 12, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
July’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a modest fall to 66.0 from 68.2, the lowest monthly reading since November 2023 though above the preliminary June reading of 65.6. Inflation expectations also fell, to 2.9% from 3.0% on both a 1-year and 5-10 year view.
July 11, 2024
July 10, 2024
Russia’s Inflation Continued Its Rally in June: 8.6% YoY
July 10, 2024 6:51 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on July 10, inflation jumped to 8.6% YoY in June after hitting 8.3% YoY in May, the highest reading since February 2023, due to strong military spending, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. The ne