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December 03, 2024
RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite
December 02, 2024
Asia Summary and Highlights 2 December
December 2, 2024 5:13 AM UTC
Asia Session
Over the weekend, Trump tweeted that he had a productive meeting with Trudeau while feeling the other way with BRICS. The equity space is opening the week with individual performance with Chinese and Hong Kong equities in the green and Nikkei & U.S. three major equity indexes in the red.
November 29, 2024
India GDP Review: Rural Strength vs Manufacturing Weakness - Q2 Story
November 29, 2024 3:05 PM UTC
India’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.4%, driven by weaker manufacturing and global headwinds, but rural demand and agriculture showed resilience. Public investment and festive consumption are expected to support recovery in H2, though challenges like export contraction and fiscal constraints remain.
November 28, 2024
Brazil: Timid Fiscal Package Presented
November 28, 2024 2:01 PM UTC
Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad introduced a fiscal package to improve the country's fiscal position without direct budget cuts. Key changes include adjusting the minimum wage growth to align with a new framework limiting expenditures to a maximum of 2.5% in real terms. Other measures rest
November 27, 2024
November 26, 2024
FOMC Minutes from November 7 - Few hawkish signals despite stronger than expected data
November 26, 2024 8:00 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from November 7 show agreement that almost all participants judged risks to their dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability to be roughly in balance and almost all backed the decision to ease by 25bps at the meeting, a more moderate move than the 50bps move that
Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?
November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f
November 25, 2024
November 22, 2024
Mexico: Budget Aims at Resuming Fiscal Discipline
November 22, 2024 11:21 PM UTC
Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has introduced the 2025 budget, reaffirming Mexico's commitment to fiscal discipline with a projected fiscal consolidation of 2.0% of GDP, reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025. Although there is likely an overestimation on GDP growth we b
Trump International: EM Countries
November 22, 2024 9:08 AM UTC
Trade and geopolitics will be the key drivers for the Trump administration relationship with key EM countries. While uncertainty on policy tactics are high, China and Vietnam will be among the first to see trade threats and actual tariffs. Mexico will see threats over the 2026 USMCA review and i
November 21, 2024
EZ HICP Preview (Nov 29): Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
November 21, 2024 9:59 AM UTC
Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1). The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read
November 20, 2024
Eurozone: ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
November 20, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
It seems that worries about weaker growth are reverberating more discernibly and more broadly within the ECB. Indeed, the worries may now be at least twofold. Clearly, weaker growth risks possible (added) downside risks to inflation, with BoI Governor Panetta yesterday warning that restrictive mon
November 19, 2024
Brazil and Mexico Labour Productivity: A Headwind for Growth
November 19, 2024 12:03 PM UTC
Brazil and Mexico labour productivity has been stagnant in the last years, with both countries registering lower labour productivity levels than they were 12 years ago, with the gap with U.S. only widening. With both countries approaching full-employment, measures will need to be taken to foster gro
November 18, 2024
UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst. After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March. These numbers ar
November 15, 2024
U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes
November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC
October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.