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February 27, 2025
February 26, 2025
Eurozone: Gauging ECB Neutral Amid a Wandering R-Star
February 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
It is clear that, especially with another official rate cut due at the looming ECB Council meeting (Mar 6), the existing debate about how restrictive policy will be may only intensify. Indeed, the debate is already quite vocal, led by the hawks who are trying to argue for policy pause at least.
February 25, 2025
Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,
February 24, 2025
Germany: A New but Hampered Government
February 24, 2025 8:53 AM UTC
The German election delivered few surprises with the electorate swinging even more clearly away from the political middle ground. It clearly means that many difficult decisions lie ahead with questions over the effectiveness of the likely new government. The result is only likely to inflame US c
February 21, 2025
Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
February 20, 2025
Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Steadies IDR
February 20, 2025 1:25 AM UTC
In line with our view Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. The weakening rupiah and external uncertainties reman critical factors influencing the rate decision. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its Janu
February 19, 2025
UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
Asia Summary and Highlights 19 February
February 19, 2025 5:32 AM UTC
The RBNZ cut by 50bps as expected
BOJ's policy board member Takata says must hike rate more if economy moves in line with BOJ forecasts
Trump says U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips by April 2
February 18, 2025
Europe: Economic Consequences of Likely Defence Build-Up
February 18, 2025 3:29 PM UTC
As Europe is forced to consider a massive and rapid ramp up to its relatively mediocre defence spending (Figure 1) as it contemplates a reduction in military support from the US, key questions emerge as the economic effect(s). Will it boost or inhibit growth, add to inflation, and how will/should
February 17, 2025
February 14, 2025
BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC
The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4