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December 19, 2025
Mexico: 25bps Cut and Now Pause
December 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.0% as expected with a downward revision to 0.3% for 2025 GDP growth. Below trend GDP is forecast in 2026 and we see this prompting further easing in March and June 2026 by 25bps each, but MXN weakness restraining Banxico pace. We then see Banxico going on hold for the rem
December 18, 2025
U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?
December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov
December 17, 2025
UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?
December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures. This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp
December 16, 2025
UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
December 16, 2025 8:06 AM UTC
Adding to the array if weak activity updates of late, there are increasing signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs more clearly and broadly with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down alm
December 15, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector
December 15, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.