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February 21, 2024

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy in range - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 21, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

Choppy trade has broken higher to retest resistance at 1.2650

February 20, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

Little change

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China: 5yr LPR Cut But Not 1yr LPR
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

A larger than expected 25bps cut in the 5yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been delivered, but the 1yr LPR rate was unchanged given that PBOC reluctance to cut the 1yr Medium-Term Facility rate (MTF) this month.  The 5yr LPR rate is not a game changer for residential property, as bigger policy moves are

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 8:21 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.2650 has not been seen

February 19, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 19, 2024 5:03 PM UTC

Little change, as cautious USD- and CAD-trade keeps price action cautious 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 19, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to the anticipated break

February 16, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending losses
Freemium Article

February 16, 2024 4:27 PM UTC

Little change, as the anticipated break below 1.3500 gives way to choppy trade

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. CPI Shows Strength in Services
While Retail Sales Dipped 
USD/JPY Broke 150
Japan Q4 GDP Stays in Contraction
UK GDP Review Confirmed Recession

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

February 16, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 1.2600

February 15, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 15, 2024 4:55 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath resistance at the 1.3585~ high of 13 February is giving way to a pullback in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade leaning lower
Freemium Article

February 15, 2024 8:25 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade 

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UK GDP Review: Recession Confirmed
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Coming in lower than expected after taking account of downward revisions, and probably hit by industrial action, GDP shrank by 0.1% m/m in December data, a result that reflected the plunge in retail sales and abnormal weather that meant a Q4 drop in GDP and consumer sending (Figure 1).  Admittedly

February 14, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - more positive above 1.3600/20
Freemium Article

February 14, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

The sharp break higher is giving way to consolidation beneath the 1.3585~ high of 13 February

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

February 14, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a break lower

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UK CPI Inflation Review: Headline and Core Steady But Softer Underlying Pressures Evident
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

Superimposed over both upside and downside surprises, UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months the former having peaked above 10% in February and the latter at 7.1% In May. However, this trend surprisingly stalled in December as the headline rate

February 13, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sharp break higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 13, 2024 4:13 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

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Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag

February 12, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

February 12, 2024 4:18 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the bounce from above congestion support at 1.3400

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited scope above 1.2650
Freemium Article

February 12, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.2650 is giving way to fresh consolidation

February 09, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy above 1.3400 - potential for a minor test beneath here
Freemium Article

February 9, 2024 4:33 PM UTC

The anticipated move down to congestion support at 1.3400 has bounced from just above here

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

February 9, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Geopolitical Tension Continues after U.S. Military Action
Slate of Fed Speakers' View on Rates
USD/JPY Inching Closer to 150 on "Dovish" Uchida
RBA Kept Rates on Hold and Leave Doors Open
Bank of Canada Minutes Detail Inflationary Concerns

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy in range - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 9, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

The test below congestion support at 1.2600 has bounced smartly from 1.2575

February 08, 2024

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Mexico CPI Review: Unpleasant but It might be Transitory
Freemium Article

February 8, 2024 6:33 PM UTC

The CPI release for January by INEGI aligns with expectations, showing a 0.9% rise (m/m). This brings the Y/Y CPI to 4.9%, marking a third consecutive month of increase. Concerns may arise, but much of the rise stems from non-core items, possibly indicating transitory inflation. Banxico's strategy f

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

February 07, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending downside tests
Freemium Article

February 7, 2024 4:31 PM UTC

The anticipated minor pullback is extending

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 7, 2024 8:35 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of support at the 1.2525 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.2500 is giving way to a corrective bounce

February 06, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced beneath the 1.3535 Fibonacci retracement - studies are positive
Freemium Article

February 6, 2024 4:24 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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Eurozone: The Last Mile, Price Persistence and the Supplies Surprise
Paying Article

February 6, 2024 11:34 AM UTC

That the EZ economy is bordering on recession has obviously been a factor in the ever clearer and broad disinflation process seen of late.  But we would argue (and many DM central banks would empathize) that it has been easing supply problems that has been the main factor.  This better supply back

February 05, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 5, 2024 4:59 PM UTC

The bounce from below congestion around 1.3400 has reached strong resistance at the 1.3535 Fibonacci retracement 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring range lows
Freemium Article

February 5, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Sharp losses have reached congestion support at 1.2600

February 02, 2024

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

February 2, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC Suggest March Easing Seen Unlikely but Q2 Remains Plausible
 U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls To Show Strong Labor Market 
DXY Remains Choppy on Headlines and Geopolitical Risk
More EZ Core Disinflation Signs But Services Inflation More Stubborn
Canada November GDP looking stronger than BoC project

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure, 1.3360 support at risk
Freemium Article

February 2, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

Back to pressure the downside after bounce from the 1.3360 low saw gains kept in check below the 200-day MA and trendline from the November high

February 01, 2024

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Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Labor Market Still Strong
Paying Article

February 1, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

We expect a 200k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with private payrolls up by 150k, slightly slower than December’s respective outcomes of 216k and 164k but stronger than the October and November reports. We expect unemployment to nudge up to 3.8% from 3.7% and a 0.3% increase in average

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EZ HICP Review: More Core Disinflation Signs But Services Inflation More Stubborn?
Paying Article

February 1, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

There has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of plunging inflation. This continued in the January numbers, albeit with the 0.1 ppt drops in both headline and core being less that most anticipated. As a result, the headline, at 2.8%, resumed its recent decline having risen to 2.9% in December

January 31, 2024

Canada November GDP - Q4 looking stronger than BoC projected
Paying Article

January 31, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

November Canadian GDP with a rise of 0.2% saw momentum pick up after there straight flat outcomes which flowed two straight negatives. The preliminary estimate for December is stronger still at 0.3%, which suggests Q4 will come in stronger than a flat forecast from the BoC. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Weighing on 1.3415/00 support, scope for break
Freemium Article

January 31, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Weighing on the 1.3415/00 support and scope seen for break here to further extend losses from the 1.3540 high

January 30, 2024

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Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - Subdued Start to the New Year
Paying Article

January 30, 2024 6:55 PM UTC

We expect January CPI to increase by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with our forecasts before rounding being 0.13% overall and 0.23% ex food and energy. Still, the ex food and energy rate would then be slower than the 0.3% gains seen in November and December.