U.S. Treasuries versus Bunds and Gilts

January 10, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

·        UK Gilts have been dragged higher by rising Treasuries and market concerns that BOE rate cuts will be limited (here), while 10yr Bund yields have also been dragged higher by Treasuries concerns on Fed rate cuts/budget deficit and tariffs.  Multi quarter we see this as overdone. We

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 January

January 10, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

Japan Eco Min Akazawa says 'critical stage' in eradicating the public's deflationary mindset
Japan November Household Spending +0.4% m/m

Chart GBP/USD Update: Fresh lows

January 9, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Minor consolidation has given way to anticipated further losses

The Growth-Inflation Tug of War: RBI’s 2025 Policy Outlook with a New Governor

January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 January

January 9, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

Japan November Labor Cash Earning 3% y/y

North American Summary and Highlights 8 January

January 8, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally strong supported by Trump comments but the GBP was particularly weak. 

FOMC Minutes from December 18 - Moving towards a more careful approach

January 8, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

Minutes from the December 17-18 meeting show the FOMC moving to a more cautious stance, which appears largely a response to recent disappointment on inflation data but uncertainty over policy following the election also seems to be playing a part.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Gains to remain limited

January 8, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a bounce

2025 will be Key for CBRT

January 8, 2025 3:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, which was the first rate cut in around two years, we believe the rate cuts will continue in 2025 following inflation fighting drive in 2024 while our end year key rate prediction remains

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 January

January 8, 2025 5:24 AM UTC

Australian November Monthly CPI 2.3% y/y 

North American Summary and Highlights 7 January

January 7, 2025 8:33 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced on a rise on US job openings. 

Preview: Due January 16 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Solid end to Q4

January 7, 2025 7:10 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 January

January 7, 2025 5:09 AM UTC

Japan Fin Min Kato verbal intervenes to support the yen 

BoJ: New Year, Old Trick?

January 7, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

USD/JPY is once again close to historical high. But are we seeing an imminent intervention?

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy at highs - daily studies under pressure

January 6, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break lower

Mexico CPI Preview: Christmas Acceleration

January 6, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

Mexico's December CPI is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in December, bringing 2024 inflation to 4.3%, above Banxico's target. Core CPI aligns better at 3.5%. Weak demand aids inflation convergence, expected by Q3 2026. Risks include a 22% MXN depreciation and U.S. tariffs. Banxico is likely to continue

Waiting for China Fiscal Stimulus

January 3, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

It is not clear why China’s authorities are slow in announcing fiscal policy measures, but it could be either acceptance of 5% GDP trajectory or just below or alternatively a desire to see the timing and scale of extra U.S. trade tariffs on China from the incoming Trump adminstration.  We see a t

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending consolidation at year highs

December 31, 2024 4:26 PM UTC

Still little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

EZ HICP Preview (Jan 7): Headline Higher Again, But Core Still Clearly Friendly?

December 31, 2024 10:48 AM UTC

There were mixed messages in the November HICP numbers.  After a downward revision, and thus below consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation.  Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were th

Asia Summary and Highlights 30 December

December 30, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

Japan December manufacturing PMI 49.6
Quiet New Year Week

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 December

December 27, 2024 5:19 AM UTC

Tokyo headline CPI 3%

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 December

December 24, 2024 5:21 AM UTC

Asia Session
While we are getting closer to Christmas, there is no rest for Japan Finance Minister Kato as he is doing the usual verbal intervening routine. There is also no surprise from the October BoJ summary. Still, the JPY is getting minor support and see USD/JPY down 0.09% to 157.01 as U.S. Tre