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August 18, 2026
August 17, 2026
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed
August 14, 2026
August 13, 2026
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
August 12, 2026
Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure
August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S. No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the
August 11, 2026
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.