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December 03, 2024

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RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite

Asia Summary and Highlights 3 December
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 5:08 AM UTC

USD/JPY retest 150

December 02, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 2 December
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed, lifted by ISM manufacturing data but later hit by comments from Fed’s Waller. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3980 support, room for lower later
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.4000 level as prices consolidate test of the 1.3980 support

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Taiwan Country Risk
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

We provide country risk review for Taiwan.  

Asia Summary and Highlights 2 December
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 5:13 AM UTC

Asia Session
Over the weekend, Trump tweeted that he had a productive meeting with Trudeau while feeling the other way with BRICS. The equity space is opening the week with individual performance with Chinese and Hong Kong equities in the green and Nikkei & U.S. three major equity indexes in the red.

November 29, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 5:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test below 1.4000 has bounced from 1.3980

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India GDP Review: Rural Strength vs Manufacturing Weakness - Q2 Story
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 3:05 PM UTC

India’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.4%, driven by weaker manufacturing and global headwinds, but rural demand and agriculture showed resilience. Public investment and festive consumption are expected to support recovery in H2, though challenges like export contraction and fiscal constraints remain.

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

November FOMC Minutes Shows Few hawkish signals 
No major surprises for U.S. Data
USD/JPY Broke 150 figure
RBNZ  Front Loading Cuts
China Slowing LT Growth

Chart GBP/USD Update: Daily studies continue to rise
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.2650 has given way to further gains

Asia Summary and Highlights 29 November
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

Higher Tokyo CPI trigger JPY rally

November 28, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

November 28, 2024 4:59 PM UTC

Still little change

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Brazil: Timid Fiscal Package Presented
Freemium Article

November 28, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad introduced a fiscal package to improve the country's fiscal position without direct budget cuts. Key changes include adjusting the minimum wage growth to align with a new framework limiting expenditures to a maximum of 2.5% in real terms. Other measures rest

Chart GBP/USD Update: Sharp gains not sustained
Freemium Article

November 28, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have extended to reach 1.2692

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 November
Freemium Article

November 28, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

JPY the mover

November 27, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 27 November
Freemium Article

November 27, 2024 8:07 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally softer despite the US data calendar providing few surprises. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

November 27, 2024 4:37 PM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment under pressure

Chart GBP/USD Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Freemium Article

November 27, 2024 8:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance at congestion around 1.2600 and the 1.2613 monthly low of 27 June

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 November
Freemium Article

November 27, 2024 5:25 AM UTC

RBNZ cut by 50bps but Kiwi jumps
Australian October monthly CPI 2.1% y/y vs. 2.3% expected

November 26, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 26 November
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 8:24 PM UTC

Overview - The USD slipped into early North America from stronger levels seen in Asia on tariff concerns, but picked up subsequently ahead of FOMC minutes that were not seen as hawkish. 

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FOMC Minutes from November 7 - Few hawkish signals despite stronger than expected data
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from November 7 show agreement that almost all participants judged risks to their dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability to be roughly in balance and almost all backed the decision to ease by 25bps at the meeting, a more moderate move than the 50bps move that

Chart USD/CAD Update: CAD-driven spike higher not sustained
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 5:35 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.4100 has spiked to the 1.4173 high of May 2020 in CAD-driven trade

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above 1.2500 - bearish daily studies stabilising
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 8:48 AM UTC

Little change, as the anticipated minor pullback gives way to consolidation above congestion support at 1.2500

November 25, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 25 November
Freemium Article

November 25, 2024 8:18 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly weaker after the nomination of Scott Bessent for US Treasury Secretary. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

November 25, 2024 4:59 PM UTC

The anticipated break below the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November has bounced from 1.3930~

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy above 1.2500 - bearish daily studies stabilising
Freemium Article

November 25, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 1.2500 has extended to 1.2487

November 22, 2024

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Mexico: Budget Aims at Resuming Fiscal Discipline
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has introduced the 2025 budget, reaffirming Mexico's commitment to fiscal discipline with a projected fiscal consolidation of 2.0% of GDP, reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025. Although there is likely an overestimation on GDP growth we b

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 4:25 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Geopolitical tension flares up
Thoughts of Trump Policy
UK Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
Choppy USD/JPY

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Trump International: EM Countries
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Trade and geopolitics will be the key drivers for the Trump administration relationship with key EM countries.  While uncertainty on policy tactics are high, China and Vietnam will be among the first to see trade threats and actual tariffs.  Mexico will see threats over the 2026 USMCA review and i

Chart GBP/USD Update: Reached the 1.2570 Fibonacci retracement - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached the 1.2570 Fibonacci retracement

November 21, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

November 21, 2024 5:04 PM UTC

The test below support at the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November has given way to a fresh bounce from 1.3930

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EZ HICP Preview (Nov 29): Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
Freemium Article

November 21, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1).  The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

November 21, 2024 8:31 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above resistance at the 1.2720 break level has not been seen

November 20, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited gains - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 4:30 PM UTC

The test of support at the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November has given way to a fresh bounce

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Eurozone: ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 11:30 AM UTC

It seems that worries about weaker growth are reverberating more discernibly and more broadly within the ECB.  Indeed, the worries may now be at least twofold. Clearly, weaker growth risks possible (added) downside risks to inflation, with BoI Governor Panetta yesterday warning that restrictive mon

Chart GBP/USD Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Minor gains have met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 1.2720 break level

November 19, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 4:18 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.4000 is approaching support at the 1.3958 weekly high of 1-6 November in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

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Brazil and Mexico Labour Productivity: A Headwind for Growth
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 12:03 PM UTC

Brazil and Mexico labour productivity has been stagnant in the last years, with both countries registering lower labour productivity levels than they were 12 years ago, with the gap with U.S. only widening. With both countries approaching full-employment, measures will need to be taken to foster gro

Chart GBP/USD Update: Attempting to stabilise above 1.2600/13
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of support at the 1.2613 monthly low of 27 June and congestion around 1.2600 has given way to a bounce

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 November
Freemium Article

November 19, 2024 4:14 AM UTC

More jawboning from Japan FM Kato

November 18, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

November 18, 2024 4:36 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath the 1.4100/05 barrier is giving way to a pullback

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UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
Freemium Article

November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC

To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst.  After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March.  These numbers ar

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong support at the 1.2570 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

November 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 1.2613 monthly low of 27 June has extended to 1.2600

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 November
Freemium Article

November 18, 2024 4:57 AM UTC

Bank Japan Gov Ueda says driver of Japan's inflation shifting towards rise in domestic wages

November 15, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 15 November
Freemium Article

November 15, 2024 8:48 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY was weaker following comments by Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato in Asia, but USD losses elsewhere were corrected after a mostly solid set of US data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Pressuring strong resistance at 1.4040/00
Paying Article

November 15, 2024 5:10 PM UTC

Consolidation around the 1.4040 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a fresh test higher

U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes
Freemium Article

November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

November 15, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

 A more balanced U.S. October CPI
And the slate of Fed speakers
One way traffic for USD/JPY
UK GDP Momentum Dissipated
Mixed Chinese Data Backs More Stimulus