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July 04, 2025
China: Housing Still A Headwind
July 4, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
Last October, China’s government support package has helped turn residential property less negative and our baseline is that residential property will likely deduct around 0.75% from 2025 growth and 0.5% from 2026. However, the risks for the economy could turnout worse than our baseline view on
July 03, 2025
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
July 02, 2025
UK: Tax Rises Looming?
July 2, 2025 8:34 AM UTC
The politically damaging climb-down on welfare spending yesterday also saw the government face an additional fiscal hole after the fiscal watchdog (the Office for Budget Responsibility, OBR) hinted it has been repeatedly overestimating growth. Indeed, in its annual Forecast Evaluation Report, it s
July 01, 2025
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up
June 30, 2025
German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be