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May 23, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 7:33 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weak, before and after renewed tariff threats from Trump against the EU and imported iPhones. 

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Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway.  Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals.  ECB wage tracker and

Canada March Retail Sales rise, with autos strong and gasoline weak, April seen firmer
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.8% rise in March retail sales is slightly stronger than a 0.7% preliminary estimate made with February’s release, but the rise is more than fully explained by what was the first rise in three months for autos, possibly related to concerns about upcoming tariffs. Ex auto sales fell by

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Speakers This Week
UK-EU Getting Back on the (Political) Fence
RBA Cut by 25bps
How Durable a Surge in UK CPI 
The Greenback Stays Pressured

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure, focus on 1.3750 low
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 7:07 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend rejection from the 1.4000/25 resistance

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 4:54 AM UTC

Japan April National Headline CPI 3.6% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room to extend gains
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 1:21 AM UTC

Locked within a narrow range below fresh year high at 1.3468 as prices consolidate gains from the 1.3140 low of last week

May 22, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD and GBP got some support from PMI data, but the EUR slipped on weaker PMI indices. 

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ECB April Account: Neutral Rate Not Necessarily a Terminal Rate
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

The account of the April 16-17 ECB Council meeting suggested that the policy decision was more of a clearly agreed consensus, this papering over continued divides regarding the outlook; the risks from tariffs; and where inflation risks lie.  The seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut (w

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Eurozone: Services Offer Sobering News
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

The May flash composite PMI data may have fallen into apparent contraction territory as the index dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in five months and thereby signalling a reduction, albeit a marginal one.  We do not take much issue whether

Asia Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 5:37 AM UTC

Japan FM Kato says Unsustainable imbalance in some countries behind trade imbalance
US Treasury confirm that Sec. Bessent met with Japan FM Kato

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating gains to fresh year high at 1.3488
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

 Saw break to reach fresh year high at 1.3488 before settling back to consolidate below the 1.3435, 2024 year high

May 21, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 21 May
Freemium Article

May 21, 2025 7:51 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly weaker on a subdued day for FX, with the UST and equity markets both under pressure. 

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German Data Preview (May 30): Lower Headline as Easter Effect Reverse Services Inflation Surge
Freemium Article

May 21, 2025 11:54 AM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression was accentuated by the small (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in April to 2.2%, still a seven-month low.  Most notable amid a drop caused by lower m/m fuel prices, was th

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending rejection from 1.4000/25 resistance
Freemium Article

May 21, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.4000/25 resistance has given way to selling pressure to break the 1.3900 support

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 May
Freemium Article

May 21, 2025 5:39 AM UTC

Japan April exports +2% y/y, import -2.2% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring 1.3400, break in focus
Freemium Article

May 21, 2025 1:23 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3400 level but pressure remains on the upside 

May 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly weaker on a subdued day, with CHF, EUR and CAD seeing modest gains. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2025 5:55 AM UTC

The RBA cut 25bps as most expected

RBA Review: Recognize Inflation Moderates and Upside Risk
Freemium Article

May 20, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 20th cut rates to 3.85% and stated cautious in forward guidance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3400, room for higher
Freemium Article

May 20, 2025 1:51 AM UTC

Break above the 1.3360 resistance has seen gains to reach the 1.3400 level before settling back in consolidation

May 19, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 19 May
Freemium Article

May 19, 2025 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weaker after the Moody’s downgrade, but came off its lows in North America. 

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Eurozone: The European Commission Diverges From the ECB on Inflation
Freemium Article

May 19, 2025 10:07 AM UTC

The European Commission (EC) Spring Forecast projects real EZ GDP growth in 2025 at 0.9%, some 0.4 ppt below its previous (autumn) view.   There is also a downgrade to the 2026 growth picture by 0.2 ppt to 1.4%, projections that carry downside risks and where we think they are still too optimistic

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extend consolidating below 1.4000 congestion
Freemium Article

May 19, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.4000 congestion

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring 1.3360 resistance, break in focus
Freemium Article

May 19, 2025 8:16 AM UTC

Consolidation above support at 1.3250 congestion has given way to bounce to retest 1.3360 resistance