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March 12, 2026
March 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots
March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w
March 10, 2026
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 10, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.
March 09, 2026
March 06, 2026
U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat
March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC
February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning
March 05, 2026
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou