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April 17, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - With the ECB easing as expected, FX movements were modest but riskier currencies managed modest gains. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at the 1.3828 current year low of 14 April and the 1.3815 monthly low of 6 November

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ECB Review: Discussing Policy Restriction No Longer Appropriate
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

A seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut was overshadowed by the ECB’s communication shift about the outlook hereafter, no longer talking about how restrictive policy may be.  This shift is entirely appropriate not least given the manner in which financial conditions are now tightenin

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from strong resistance at 1.3300/30
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 1.3300 range highs

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% & Employment Change +32.2K
Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan's real interest rate remains very low

April 16, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 16 April
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - Equities fell on chip export restrictions and comments from Fed’s Powell. This saw the USD weaker. 

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Bank of Canada - Proceeding carefully, but risks still lean towards further easing
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75% as expected. The statement concluded that the BoC will proceed carefully, noting that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war, but it can and must maintain price stability in Canada. While this shows cauti

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy in range
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

The anticipated continuation higher towards resistance at 1.4000 has been pushed back from 1.3975

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong resistance at 1.3300/30
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3200 is giving way to further gains

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Respite Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall

Asia Summary and Highlights 16 April
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 5:16 AM UTC

Global risk sentiment sour with Chinese tough stance against tariff

April 15, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 15 April
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - It was and day of limited FX movement, though EUR and CAD were softer after weak data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Corrective bounce in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 3:42 PM UTC

Consolidation following the bounce from the 1.3828 current year low of 14 April is giving way to a test higher in CAD-driven trade

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Eurozone Banks Offer ECB More Cause for Concern
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

The ECB can draw comfort from signs that credit demand and supply for EZ households continues to improve.  But the ECB’s latest bank lending survey (BLS) also offers worrying signs in regard to firms as well as questioning the alleged neutrality of the QT program.  It shows a further (admittedly

Chart GBP/USD Update: Potential for short-term reactions
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Cautious trade is edging higher

Asia Summary and Highlights 15 April
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 4:31 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Kato says negative impacts of excessive FX volatility
RBA minutes suggest May meeting an opportune time to consider reacting to potential risks

April 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 April
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 7:26 PM UTC

Overview - Equities saw modest gains while UST yields fell significantly. The USD however was little changed. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited bounce from fresh 2025 year low
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 4:17 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh 2025 year low at 1.3828

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to fresh gains

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 April
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

Trump’s tariff on Chinese smartphones, computers and other tech products reportedly exempted from the 145% tariff 

Trump's Tariff Impact for Japan and BoJ
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 4:28 AM UTC

With the latest round of "universal" tariff, Japan is being hit again by double digit tariffs despite being the nice ally of the U.S. While we see little change of Japan's retaliation, it is worth looking into the impact towards the Japanese economy as auto export that is hit hard, is one of the maj

April 11, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 11 April
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 7:34 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained under pressure, but came off its lows in North America. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Fresh 2025 year low
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh 2025 year low at 1.3840

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. Trade Complication Persists
Prospect of a U.S.-China Trade Deal
U.S. March CPI Shows Pre-tariff momentum appears lower than was realised
And a barrage of Fed Speakers 
USD/JPY Searching for Lower Grounds 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath 1.3000 has given way to a sharp break higher

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UK GDP Review (Apr 11): Marked Strength in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

UK data can be erratic, but the hugely unexpected surge in February GDP numbers (Figure 1) looks hard to fathom.  A 0.5% m/m jump suggests the economy grew by an annualized 6%-plus in the month.  This is hard to square against the message from surveys and other data such as that for the labor mark

Asia Summary and Highlights 11 April
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 5:27 AM UTC

Equities rebounded from session low

April 10, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 10 April
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - Despite a soft US CPI, equities slipped back after Wednesday’s surge and the USD fell across the board. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Fresh 2025 lows in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 3:51 PM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to a fresh 2025 year lows in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

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U.S. March CPI - Pre-tariff momentum appears lower than was realised
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

March CPI comes as a pleasant surprise, a 0.1% decline overall led by an expected dip in gasoline, but the 0.1% rise ex food and energy is well below consensus and recent trend and suggests the inflationary pressures entering the trade war are lower than was previously thought. Initial claims, up 4k

Chart GBP/USD Update: Edging higher
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

Choppy trade above congestion support at 1.2800 is giving way to a test higher

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 April
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

The risk sentiment remains choppy on Thursday

April 09, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 9 April
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - Risk appetite surged after Trump announced a tariff pause excluding a fresh escalation against China, lifting USD/JPY and the risk-sensitive currencies. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 4:15 PM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to a fresh test lower

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ECB Preview (Apr 17): Deeper Cuts on Trade Tariffs Broadening Impact
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

It is surely not a question of whether the ECB cuts rates again at its Apr 17 decision, but what it communicates about policy thereafter.  Not least given the manner in which financial conditions have tightened, the then-notable change in rhetoric last month to suggest the policy stance had become

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

The break above 1.2800 has met renewed selling interest at the 1.2860 lows from 6-10 March

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 April
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 5:05 AM UTC

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rate by 25bp to 3.75%

April 08, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 8 April
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 8:00 PM UTC

Overview - FX was volatile with no clear direction, as equities failed to sustain a stronger opening. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 4:07 PM UTC

The test below 1.4200 has bounced from 1.4145~, with prices once again trading in cautious trade

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UK CPI Preview (Apr 16): Inflation to Slip Further Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals, albeit reversing some of the upside surprises seen in January data.  The numbers may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for

Chart GBP/USD Update: Reached 1.2700 - studies continue to track lower
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have met expected buying interest at congestion support at 1.2700

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 April
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 4:51 AM UTC

Market hopes for any positive headline regarding tariffs
USD is broadly weak on Tuesday's Asia session

April 07, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 7 April
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 8:06 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was firmer, led by USD/JPY as UST yields rose and equities saw some stabilization. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

The test into the broad 1.4237 - 1.4300 resistance range is giving way to a fresh pullback as overbought intraday studies unwind

Chart GBP/USD Update: Fresh selling pressure
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 11:58 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.2900 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart GBP/USD Update: Smart bounce from early losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 7:34 AM UTC

The early break below support at the 1.2860 lows from 6-10 March has bounced from 1.2825~

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Duty Bound: India’s Growth Test Amid US Tariff Heat
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

The new 26% US tariff on Indian imports poses near-term challenges for India’s export sectors and small businesses, potentially shaving up to 0.5% off GDP growth. But it also opens doors for India to capture global market share as rivals like China and Vietnam face even steeper duties. With sector

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 April
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 4:35 AM UTC

Another Plunge for Risk Asset

April 04, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 4 April
Freemium Article

April 4, 2025 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - It was another day of plunging equities, though in contrast to Thursday, the USD was stronger. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 4, 2025 5:07 PM UTC

Consolidation following the fall to the 1.4025 fresh 2025 year low of 3 April is giving way to a corrective bounce