View:
May 30, 2025 5:59 PM UTC
We expect April’s trade deficit to plunge to $66.4bn, which would be the lowest since December 2023, from a record $140.5bn in March. We expect a healthy 2.1% increase from exports and a plunge of 16.3% in imports, correcting Q1 strength seen ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
May 30, 2025 3:02 PM UTC
Tariff issues still the main focus
EUR may suffer from any new US tariff measures
ECB rate cut and lower inflation forecast may also be EUR negative
CAD to gain modest support from BoC
JPY can gain in risk negative secanrio but should in any case be well supported
May 30, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect a May ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from April’s 48.7, which was the weakest since November. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
May 30, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
May’s Final Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations coming down significantly, no longer significantly accelerating from April, probably due to reduced tariffs on China. However the boost to sentiment is modest, the final figure of 52.2 up from a preliminary 50.8 and unchanged from April.
May 30, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP was surprisingly resilient, rising in line with recent trend by 2.1% annualized, though Q4 was revised down to 2.1% from 2.6%. Detail was less positive, with domestic demand falling by 0.1% though this follows a 5.2% surge in Q4. March GDP rose by 0.1% as expected, and the prelimin
May 30, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
While March personal spending is subdued as expected with a 0.2% rise, personal income shows surprising strength with a rise of 0.8%, while core PCE prices are subdued as expected, up 0.1%, underperforming a 0.2% core CPI. A much smaller than expected advance April trade deficit of $87.6bn is suppor