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February 28, 2025

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
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February 28, 2025 3:22 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low through the 34.00 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Break to fresh year high
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February 28, 2025 3:09 AM UTC

 Break above resistance at the 16384/16400 area has seen follow-through above the 2024 year high at 16474

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending sharp rally
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February 28, 2025 2:47 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break of the 1440.00 level to retest strong resistance at the 1455.00/1460.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending bounce from 1.3312 low
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February 28, 2025 2:29 AM UTC

Sharply higher through resistance at the 1.3420/1.3460 previous lows to extend gaing from the 1.3312 low

USD/JPY flows: Dragged by sentiment
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February 28, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Japanese labour unions push for record wage hike amid rising costs
Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending rejection from 1.2700
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February 28, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

Turned lower from test of the 1.2700 level as daily studies unwind the deep overbought readings to reach support at 1.2600

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
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February 28, 2025 2:02 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend rejection from the 1.0500/33 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
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February 28, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 156.16/00 support has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure to extend the broader losses from October high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend consolidation above 148.56 low
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February 28, 2025 12:57 AM UTC

Drifting narrowly in range as prices extend consolidation above the 148.56 low

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 28, 2025 12:46 AM UTC

Break of the .5700 congestion extending losses to pressure strong support at the .5622/.5600 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6250/33 support
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February 28, 2025 12:21 AM UTC

Break of the .6300 level has seen sharp losses to reach support at the .6250/33 area

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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February 28, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as risk sentiment continues to tread lower on U.S. tariff concern and soft global outlook. The biggest loser is KRW by 0.92%, followed by SGD 0.71%, THB 0.61%, CNH and IDR 0.49%, CNY 0.39%, MYR 0.27%, TWD 0.08%, HKD 0.04% and PHP 0.02%

February 27, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
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February 27, 2025 8:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
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February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
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February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
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February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
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February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
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February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 27, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6300 has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
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February 27, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation 

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
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February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
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February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Poised for further losses
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February 27, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a test above 18.5000
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February 27, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for a test below 1.5000
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February 27, 2025 11:38 AM UTC

The test above strong resistance at the 1.5070 Fibonacci retracement has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.5100

Psychology for major markets February 27th
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February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
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February 27, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
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February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
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February 27, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
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February 27, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

The test of support at the 0.8900 break level and the 0.8910 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
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February 27, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above congestion resistance at 0.8300 has not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
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February 27, 2025 8:38 AM UTC

The test above resistance at 1.0500 has been pushed back from the 1.0533 current year high of 27 January

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
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February 27, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Range-bound above 188.07 support
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February 27, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

No change, with prices confined within a narrow range above the 188.07 support

CAD flows: CAD looks vulnerable
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February 27, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

CAD looks vulnerable with tariff threat looming

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Weighing on the 94.00/93.60 support
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February 27, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 94.30 low extend losses to reach 94.00/93.60 support

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
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February 27, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

 Little change, with prices confined to range above the 1.1050 support and tracing out a bear flag from the 1.1150/1.1180 highs

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending gains
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February 27, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

Break above the 1.6600/33 resistance see prices extending bounce from the 1.6355 low of last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2260 low
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February 27, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.2260 low as prices unwind oversold daily studies

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 February
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February 27, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent
The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 86.4600 low
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February 27, 2025 5:25 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 86.4600 low has seen rebound to regain the 87.0000 level

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 27th
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February 27, 2025 5:07 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Chart USD/MYR Update: Higher in consolidation from 4.4000 level
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February 27, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

Turned up from the 4.4000 level to open up room for retest of the 4.4540 resistance

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Sour
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February 27, 2025 4:23 AM UTC

The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending bounce
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February 27, 2025 3:28 AM UTC

 Extending bounce from the 16169 low to reach strong resistance at the 16384/16400 high and congestion area

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending bounce from 33.37 low
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February 27, 2025 3:18 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low