This week's five highlights

September 4, 2026 11:00 PM UTC

U.S.-Iran Exchanging Fire Again
Bank of Canada Now expecting a December tightening
Another 25bps for RBNZ 
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
USD/JPY Consolidating test of 155.22/00 support

North American Summary and Highlights 4 September

September 4, 2026 7:53 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was supported by strong US employment data, particularly versus the CAD given a contrast with a weak Canadian employment report. 

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July

September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Maintaining a healthy trend

September 4, 2026 6:40 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in August industrial production with a 0.4% increase in manufacturing, the latter up from a 0.2% increase in July though for manufacturing ex autos we expect a second straight rise of 0.4%. This would maintain a healthy trend, supported by AI investment. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure

September 4, 2026 3:41 PM UTC

Consolidation around congestion support at 1.3800 has given way to a bounce in CAD-dominant trade

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts due for a bounce, but trend subdued

September 4, 2026 3:03 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to increase by 8.2% to 1340k after a 12.4% decline in July while permits fall by 1.6% to 1410k after a 4.3% increase in July. 

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11

September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC

US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Trump making sure Sep FOMC is political minefield

September 4, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

Trump renews the political pressure on the Fed
Makes for an even more 'interesting' debate at the next FOMC

Canada August Employment - Fall corrective, but tariff risks ahead

September 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 41.7k decline is much weaker than expected though the fall can be seen as corrective from three straight healthy gains. The unemployment rate was stable at 6.4% though the average hourly wage of permanent employees at 2.0% was a significant slowing from 3.0

Chart AUD/USD Update: Studies improving

September 4, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call

September 4, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy after sharp losses - studies under pressure

September 4, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 181.00 has bounced from 180.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure

September 4, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 155.25~ monthly low of 3 August is giving way to a bounce

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Good upside on payrolls, though earnings steady. CPI more critical

September 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Good upside on the payrolls data, at least outside of earnings, suggests momentum stays solid
Fed will probably stick to view that labor market healthy, firm and generally balanced, especially with earnings not accelerating
That leaves inflation data as the key policy data factor

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Lower in range - studies under pressure

September 4, 2026 11:26 AM UTC

Anticipated minor gains have tested above resistance at the 99.50 congestion lows, with prices meeting renewed selling interest beneath 100.00, before settling lower once again

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

September 4, 2026 10:18 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.9375 has given way to a bounce

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 Sep

September 4, 2026 10:16 AM UTC

Waiting for payrolls for next steer into the weekend
Otherwise some corrective bounce from USD/JPY on the fast run down towards 155
And EUR/USD holds near to 1.16 expiries into the data

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 4

September 4, 2026 10:07 AM UTC

U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls Show Corrections from recent payroll weakness 
Canada August Employment A moderate month 
Japan Household Spending Closely Watched 

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

September 4, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 0.8050

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited tests higher - studies under pressure

September 4, 2026 8:19 AM UTC

The anticipated test below congestion support at 99.00 has bounced from 98.85~

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Leaning lower

September 4, 2026 7:56 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of resistance within congestion around 0.8600 and the 0.8610 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a pullback

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher

September 4, 2026 7:46 AM UTC

The bounce from support at the 1.1565 Fibonacci retracement has extended

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher

September 4, 2026 7:35 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a steady bounce

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consoldidating retest of 1.2285, May YTD high

September 4, 2026 7:22 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation following retest of the 1.2285 May current year high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies