North American Summary and Highlights 4 November

November 4, 2026 8:23 PM UTC

Overview - The USD stabilized after slipping in Asia as the Democrats took control of Congress.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure

November 4, 2026 4:45 PM UTC

The anticipated break above congestion resistance at 1.4000 has proven shallow

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Nov 5

November 4, 2026 4:06 PM UTC

Dust settles on midterm, chaos avoided, mkt focus on implications for oil and tech
BoE hike a done deal, but build up suggests a 'dovish hike' relative to mkt

U.S. October ISM Services - Detail on the weak side

November 4, 2026 3:09 PM UTC

October’s ISM services index of 54.5 is down from 54.9 and a second straight slowing, though still comfortably within this year’s range.

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains

November 4, 2026 2:56 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a sharp bounce from congestion support at 1.3300

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited gains in choppy trade

November 4, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a fresh test lower

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Higher in both EUR- and JPY-driven trade

November 4, 2026 2:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp EUR- and JPY-driven break higher

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pushing higher in heightened volatility

November 4, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 158.00 has reached 158.75

U.S. September trade deficit narrows marginally but wider in real terms

November 4, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

September’s trade deficit of $105.0bn from $105.9bn surprisingly narrowed marginally from August despite a wider advance goods deficit released earlier. Still, the data confirms a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in Q3.

U.S. October ADP Employment - Hints at upside payroll risk

November 4, 2026 1:30 PM UTC

October’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 86k is on the firm side of expectations and exactly matches September’s (revised from 90k) so the data is presumably reasonably representative of trend. The number is stronger than our payroll forecast of 45k private, 50k overall. 

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Sharp bounce from fresh year low - but studies under pressure

November 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Selling interest has extended to post a fresh year low at 10.2450

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Potential for a minor bounce

November 4, 2026 11:16 AM UTC

Consolidation following the spike lower to 0.9130 is giving way to a drift higher

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 Nov

November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC

Dollar pulls back and risk lifts, after reversed Asia spike lower, out of Democrat clean sweep
Most counters seeing covering of their pre-election positions

EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike

November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC

Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas

DXY flows - post-election position reversals

November 4, 2026 9:52 AM UTC

Some position spike reversals and squeezes dominate out of the initial post election trade
Mkt eying glass half full vs glass half empty takes on convincing Democrat results

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for lower

November 4, 2026 9:19 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.8200 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Extending cautious trade

November 4, 2026 9:13 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.8333 - 0.8365 range

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Poised for further losses

November 4, 2026 9:08 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated selling interest

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for fresh gains

November 4, 2026 8:41 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath 1.1200 has given way to anticipated gains

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains

November 4, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

Consolidation above congestion support at 1.3400 has given way to anticipated gains

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - dollar focus remains on tech out of Democrat sweep

November 4, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

Democrat sweep, initial cross asset kneejerks, then pared
Focus remains on tech tone for spillover onto the dollar

Weekly Chart AUD/USD: Corrective pullback from .7050/80 resistance

November 4, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Saw rejection from the .7050/.7080 resistance as prices retrace rally from the .6900 support

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Room for deeper pullback from 1.2600 current year high

November 4, 2026 6:09 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 1.2500 level following pullback from the 1.2600, 28 October current year high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Drift lower from 18183 all-time high

November 4, 2026 5:35 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 18183 all-time high