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February 21, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli

U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC

February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring 0.6385/00
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.6385 Fibonacci retracement and the 0.6400 break level is giving way to consolidation

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have bounced from 156.30

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of the 149.20 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 150.00 has reached the 149.20 Fibonacci retracement

Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating test of 106.35/55 - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

The test of support at the 106.55 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a break to the 106.35 longer-term Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/RUB Update: Corrective gains to remain limited
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:21 PM UTC

The anticipated continuation of November losses has reached 87.3250

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

The pullback from resistance at the 18.5000 break level has given way to consolidation

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy in broad range
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a minor test higher

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 9:16 AM UTC

Little change, as cautious trade extends pressure on congestion support at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 9:08 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 0.9000 is giving way to consolidation above strong support at 0.8965

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 8:57 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring resistance at 1.0500/33
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 8:47 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to further gains

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending January gains
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to a break higher

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending rejection from 1.1150/1.1180 highs
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Break of the 1.1100 level extending pullback from test of the 1.1150/1.1180 resistance

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 189.00 level to consolidate losses from the 193.04 high of last week

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Leaning lower in consolidation
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 95.50 support with bounce consolidating losses from the 97.33 high of last week

Chart USD/PHP Updates: Under pressure, focus return to 57.710 low
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 6:01 AM UTC

Failure to hold above the 58.000 level return focus to the downside for retest of the 57.710, December low

Chart USD/INR Update: Under pressure, 86.4600 support at risk
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 5:38 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 87.0000 level has given way to fresh selling pressure through the 86.6525 support to open the 86.4600 low to retest

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

AUD/USD flows: Solid Regional Sentiment
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 5:02 AM UTC

Regional sentiment is positive on the last trading day of the week

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Leaning lower in consolidation
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 4:28 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the 16370 high to retest the 16269 support

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 4:13 AM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

USD/JPY flows: National CPI Jump to 4%
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 3:06 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure, 33.50 low at risk
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 3:04 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 33.58 low of last week has given way to break to expose the 33.50 current year low to retest

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending losses, focus on 1427.00 low
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 1440.00 congestion has given way to break to reach 1430.00 level

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending losses, room to 1.3300/1.3270
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:36 AM UTC

 Shallow bounce from the Monday's low at 1.3375 has met with selling pressure at the 1.3420/60 resistance to reach fresh low at 1.3325

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:10 AM UTC

Consolidation around the 1.2600 level has given way to break above the 1.2640 high to extend the broader gains from January low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating retest of 1.0500, scope for break
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.0400 congestion has seen prices back to pressure the 1.0500 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating above the December low
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:29 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend break of the 158.00 level before bouncing ahead of support at the 156.16 low of December

Chart USD/JPY Update: Focus turn to 148.64, December low
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:11 AM UTC

Break of the 151.00 support saw sharp losses through the 150.00 level before settling into consolidation at the 149.20, 50% Fibonacci level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:48 AM UTC

Consolidation at the .5700 level has given way to bounce to break the .5750 high to reach .5773 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6400/15 resistance, room for higher
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:24 AM UTC

Bounce from the .6330 support has seen gains to reach resistance at the .6400/15 congestion and 38.2% Fibonacci level

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback treads lower along with U.S. Treasury Yields. The only loser is TWD by 0.12%; the biggest winners are SGD 0.7%, CNH 0.68%, CNY 0.5%, KRW 0.44%, INR 0.33%, MYR 0.31%, PHP 0.28%, THB 0.1% and THB by 0.01%.
USD/CNH is tr

February 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

North American Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited significant news, the USD was generally softer, particularly in North America. 

Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

The test of support at 0.6330 has given way to a bounce

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:50 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 158.00 is extending in JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 150.00 in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Focus back on the 106.55 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

The test above resistance at 107.00 has been pushed back from 107.35/40

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m.  February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.