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July 06, 2026
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
July 6, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
July 6, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
July 02, 2026
Preview: Due July 20 - Canada June CPI - Energy to correct lower but BoC core rates seen mostly stable
July 2, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to correct lower to 3.0% yr/yr from May’s 3.2% which was the highest since December 2023, with a slowing to 2.98% from 3.23% before rounding. The Bank of Canada’s core rates however are likely to remain mostly stable with CPI-Median at 2.1% and CPI-Trim at 2.0%, both
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
July 2, 2026 5:50 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing
July 2, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
July 2, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
July 01, 2026
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures
July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
June 30, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade
June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen
UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative
June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones. This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer. Such shots of real growth ar
U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs
June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 30, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
June 29, 2026
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
June 29, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 29, 2026 12:10 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.