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May 29, 2026
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
May 29, 2026 3:28 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 29, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2
May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint
U.S. April Advance Goods Trade - Positive for Q2 GDP, but inventories may provide some offset
May 29, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
April’s advance US trade deficit of $82.4bn is narrower than expected and down from $$85.3bn in March. Exports rose by 4.0% while imports rose by 1.9%. Earlier price data had shown gains of 3.3% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
May 28, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 28, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
U.S. April New Home Sales - A below trend month
May 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April new home sales with a 6.2% decline to 622k are on the weak side of trend which is showing signs of losing momentum, if not dramatically yet. That May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index picked up from a weak April cautions against reading too much into this data.
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable
May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.
May 27, 2026
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
May 27, 2026 5:27 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 27, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
May 27, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 27, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 27, 2026 12:27 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 27, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?
May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise. Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4
May 26, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
U.S. May Consumer Confidence - Holding up better than Michigan CSI
May 26, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index at 93.1 is down from April’s 93.8 but only because April was revised up from 92.8. May’s index is the first decline since January. The index is holding up better than the record low Michigan CSI. The Conference Board index tends to be more sensi
May 22, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture
May 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.
U.S. Final May Michigan CSI - Unusually large downward revision as inflation expectations accelerate
May 22, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
The final May Michigan CSI of 44.8 is an unusually sharp downward revision from the preliminary 48.2 and down further from April’s 49.8 as well as a fresh record low. It appears that consumer patience over finding a resolution to the Middle East conflict is exhausted.
May 21, 2026
U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services still subdued
May 21, 2026 1:59 PM UTC
May’s preliminary S and P PMIs show increasing strength in manufacturing at 55.3 from an already significantly improved 54.5 in April, reaching its highest since May 2022. Services at 50.9 are however marginally softer from April’s 51.0, but still holding above March’s dip below neutral to 49.
U.S. Initial Claims, May Philly Fed, April Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed data gives no clear signals of strength or weakness
May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed, initial claims in line with expectations and showing signs of stabilizing at a still low level. May’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey is weaker than expected but with positive 6-month expectations, both on activity and prices. April housing starts and permits are on the
Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs
May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2
May 20, 2026
South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April
May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl