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October 04, 2024
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC
The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts. This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends. The Decem
October 03, 2024
U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC
Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi
October 02, 2024
Preview: Due October 15 - Canada September CPI - To fall below 2% overall, but with pause in BoC core rates
October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
U.S. September ADP Employment - Stronger increase consistent with lower initial claims
October 2, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate for private sector employment growth of 143k is on the firm side of expectations and stronger than in July or August. This follows lower initial claims data in September. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we continue to expect a similar 150k rise in priva
October 01, 2024
U.S. August JOLTS report sees Job Openings rebound, ISM Manufacturing unchanged with mixed detail
October 1, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
August’s JOLTS report shows quite a sharp rise in job openings, by 329k to 8.04m, more than fully erasing a 199k decline in July but not June’s 320k drop. Trend remains negative, but only modestly. September’s ISM manufacturing index is unchanged at 47.2, with mixed detail.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. September CPI - Core returning to trend, gasoline softer
October 1, 2024 12:02 PM UTC
We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.
September 30, 2024
Preview: Due October 11 - U.S. September PPI - Energy to slip, core rates seen slightly slower
September 30, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Still weak
September 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, still weak and almost unchanged from August’s 47.2 and July’s 46.8, and also equal to a weaker S and P manufacturing PMI for September which was the lowest since June 2023.
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI will Continue to Decelerate in September
September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in
September 27, 2024
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo
U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices looking subdued in Q3
September 27, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
August’s PCE price data, up 0.1% both overall and core (0.09% and 0.13% respectively before rounding) shows the core rate softer than expected, and well below the 0.3% core CPI. Personal income and spending gains of 0.2% are both on the low side of expectations but a narrower August advance goods
EZ HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs?
September 27, 2024 9:38 AM UTC
Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP numbers, and enough of a factor to pull the y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be the lowest in over three years and this despite still little material change in services inflation. Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be sh
September 26, 2024
Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices to underperform Core CPI
September 26, 2024 5:03 PM UTC
We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending. GDP revisions suggest back data for personal income will be revised significa
Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower within a widening trend
September 26, 2024 4:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Still weak but may be near a base
September 26, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
August pending home sales with a marginal 0.6% increase fell slightly short of expectations following a sharp 5.5% decline in July, though with July’s dip having followed a 4.8% increase in June the trend is probably only marginally negative now.
U.S. GDP revisions, Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders details mostly positive
September 26, 2024 1:08 PM UTC
Initial claims at 218k from 222k have fallen further though last week was revised up from 219k, putting the level at the least since May 18 and suggesting no further weakening of the labor market in September. Unchanged durable goods orders have held up better in August after July’s 9.9% aircraft-
September 25, 2024
U.S. August New Home Sales - Down but resilient after strong July
September 25, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
August new home sales are down by 4.7% to 716k but have held up better than expected after July’s unexpectedly strong outcome, which was revised even higher to 751k from 739k, making July’s reading the highest since February 2022.
Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead dip, modest slippage seen ex transport
September 25, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.
Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 25, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched.
German Data Preview (Sep 30): Inflation Under Target?
September 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted this month to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, ie consistent with the ECB target and well below expectations. Indeed, the C
September 24, 2024
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - Stable and slightly positive
September 24, 2024 4:50 PM UTC
We expect September’s ISM services index to be unchanged from August’s reading of 51.5, and also almost unchanged from July’s 51.4, and implying only a modest pace of expansion through Q3.
U.S. September Consumer Confidence - Present situation slides sharply
September 24, 2024 2:37 PM UTC
September consumer confidence contrasts stronger Michigan CSI data with a fall to 98.7 from 105.6 in August (which was revised up from 103.3). The data shows a sharp slide in the present situation with expectations also down as well as a weaker labor market view. Inflation expectations however edged
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
September 24, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
September 23, 2024
Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
September 23, 2024 4:37 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
September 20, 2024
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Manufacturing less weak, Services stronger still
September 20, 2024 1:46 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to show modest improvements, manufacturing to a still negative 48.5 from August’s eight-month low of 47.9, 48.5 from 49.5, and services to 56.0 from 55.7, reaching the highest level since March 2022.
September 19, 2024
U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Downtrend resumes but may bottom soon
September 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
August existing home sales with a 2.5% decline to 3.86m have resumed a downtrend after a 1.5% July increase. This is consistent with most housing sector survey evidence through August but signals for September are more positive, which Fed easing should assist.
Norges Bank Review: Heads Still in the Sand?
September 19, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
As with the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% and equally unsurprising moderated its previous hawkish rhetoric - slightly. While it still fought against market expectations by suggesting policy will remain on hold until year end it did drop its recent stress
September 18, 2024
Fed: 50bps Cut and 175bps More to Follow?
September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC
The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting. This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds
Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slippage to resume
September 18, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Hints of improvement
September 18, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
August housing starts and permits are stronger than expected, starts up 9.6% to 1356k and permits up 4.9% to 1475k. The gains more than fully reverse respective July declines of 6.9% and 3.3% and hint that expectations for Fed easing may be starting to provide some support.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Stable and Services Resilience Still Evident?
September 18, 2024 6:31 AM UTC
The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence. The August data showed mixed signs on such a basis. Indeed, services inflation rose back
September 17, 2024
Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 17, 2024 3:42 PM UTC
We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched.
Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to slip
September 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.