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January 13, 2025
Brazil CPI Review: Some Deterioration in December
January 13, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
Brazil’s CPI grew by 0.52% in December, ending 2024 at 4.8%, above the Central Bank’s target range (1.5%–4.5%). Key drivers included food (+1.2% m/m) and household spending (+0.7%). Core inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3% Y/Y. Elevated inflation is expected in early
Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
January 13, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a
January 10, 2025
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.
Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue
UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?
January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,
U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.
Canada December Employment - Strong job growth but again flattered by the public sector
January 10, 2025 2:26 PM UTC
Canada has followed a healthy 50.5k increase in November employment with a substantially stronger 90.9k increase in December, though the acceleration in full time work to 57.5k from 54.2k was marginal. While some of the detail is less impressive, the data suggests the economy is gaining momentum, as
Mexico CPI Review: Downtrend Continues
January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci
U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still
January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.
UK CPI Preview (Jan 15): More Mixed Inflation Signals
January 10, 2025 11:55 AM UTC
Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns. Admittedly, markets are looking for the headline rate to nudge up a notch, although we look for a st
India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months.
January 08, 2025
Preview: Due January 10 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Closer to solid underlying trend
January 8, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str
U.S. December ADP Employment - Modest slowing, but initial claims suggest strong labor market
January 8, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate for private sector employment growth of 122k is slightly softer than expected but not sufficiently so to change payroll expectations (we continue to expect a 175k rise, 140k in the private sector). Labor market signals, most notably initial claims, generally remain healthy.
January 07, 2025
Preview: Due January 16 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Solid end to Q4
January 7, 2025 7:10 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November.
Preview: Due January 15 - U.S. December CPI - Stronger overall, core rate maintaining trend
January 7, 2025 4:55 PM UTC
We expect December’s CPI to increase by a nine-month high of 0.4% overall with a fifth straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. We expect the ex-food and energy index to increase by 0.26% before rounding, which would make it the softest of the five straight 0.3% gains in the core rate.
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Seen matching payrolls, but recent bias to outperform
January 7, 2025 3:30 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in December’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which matches our estimate for private sector non-farm payroll growth, though we expect overall non-farm payrolls including government to increase by 175k. Recent Labor market signals, most obviously inmitia
U.S. November JOLTS report sees Job Openings highest since May, December ISM Services index also firmer
January 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
November has seen as sharp bounce in job openings, by 259k to 8.098m, a second straight rise which after October’s 467k more than fully erases the 489k decline of September and takes the level to the highest since May. December ISM services data is also on the firm side of expectations, rising t
US November trade balance corrects lower but trend still widening
January 7, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
November’s US trade deficit of $78.3bn is in line with expectations generated by advance goods data though up from a $73.6bn deficit seen in October. The data shows exports and imports both rebounding from weakness in October that was probably influenced by a strike at East Coast ports early in th
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Rebounding from a weaker November
January 7, 2025 12:18 PM UTC
While the index is unlikely to be quite a strong as the 56.8 S and P services PMI for December, which was revised down from 58.5 yesterday, we expect a significant bounce in December’s ISM services index, to 55.5 from November’s weaker 52.1.
January 06, 2025
Mexico CPI Preview: Christmas Acceleration
January 6, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
Mexico's December CPI is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in December, bringing 2024 inflation to 4.3%, above Banxico's target. Core CPI aligns better at 3.5%. Weak demand aids inflation convergence, expected by Q3 2026. Risks include a 22% MXN depreciation and U.S. tariffs. Banxico is likely to continue
January 03, 2025
Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY
January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC
Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t
January 02, 2025
Preview: Due January 3 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining November improvement
January 2, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
Despite a correction lower in the S and P manufacturing PMI and weakness in some regional surveys, we expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to sustain a November improvement, edging up to 48.5 from 48.4.
December 31, 2024
EZ HICP Preview (Jan 7): Headline Higher Again, But Core Still Clearly Friendly?
December 31, 2024 10:48 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the November HICP numbers. After a downward revision, and thus below consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were th
German Data Preview (Jan 6): Services Inflation Slips?
December 31, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the November estimate, lower than widely expected, albeit where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%. This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation. Even so, the core HICP
December 29, 2024
Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November
December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%
December 24, 2024
Preview: Due December 27 - U.S. November Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit, exports and imports to rebound from October dips
December 24, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
We expect an advance November trade deficit of $108.9bn, up from $98.3bn in October and moving above September’s $106.2bn to bring the widest deficit since March 2022.
December 23, 2024
Preview: Due December 24 - U.S. November New Home Sales - Rebounding from hurricanes
December 23, 2024 3:16 PM UTC
We expect a November new home sales level of 740k, which would be a 21.3% increase if October’s 17.3% decline to 610k is unrevised. October’s decline came mostly in the South and may have been caused by hurricanes. If so a rebound is likely.
December 20, 2024
Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since April
December 20, 2024 2:17 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
U.S. November Core PCE Prices significantly softer than Core CPI
December 20, 2024 1:59 PM UTC
November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CPI, easing some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices. Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are als
December 19, 2024
U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Picking up, but for how long?
December 19, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
November existing home sales have shown a stronger than expected 4.8% rise to 4.15m, though pending home sales data had hinted at a strong ruse. A recent bounce in housing demand has been supported by Fed easing. If Fed easing is now starting to slow, further gains may be modest.
Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
December 19, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
U.S. Initial Claims move back down and GDP revised up, but Philly Fed weak
December 19, 2024 2:15 PM UTC
Initial claims at 220k in December’s non-farm payroll survey week have slipped back from last week’s 8-week high and suggest the labor market remains healthy. Q3 GDP has seen an unexpected and broad-based upward revision to 3.1% from 2.8% while the core PCE price index has nudged marginally high
Norges Bank Review: Caution Prevails
December 19, 2024 10:21 AM UTC
Surprising no-one, another (ie eighth successive) stable policy decision was forthcoming at this latest Board decision so that the policy rate at 4.5% has been in place for a year. The statement was more open about policy being eased but only after two more meetings, so that the first cut will com
December 18, 2024
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Seen matching payrolls, but recent bias to outperform
December 18, 2024 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in December’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which matches our estimate for private sector non-farm payroll growth, though we expect overall non-farm payrolls including government to increase by 175k.
Preview: Due January 10 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Closer to solid underlying trend
December 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str
Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest another rise
December 18, 2024 2:04 PM UTC
We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.
U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Singles positive, Multiples mixed
December 18, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
November housing starts are weaker than expected with a 1.8% decline to 1289k while permits are stronger than expected with a 6.1% rise to 1505k. The contrast between the two series comes largely because multiple starts were weak and multiple permits strong.
December 17, 2024
Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
December 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
December 17, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
December 17, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
U.S. November Industrial Production - No rebound in aircraft after Boeing strike
December 17, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
November industrial production has shown an unexpected 0.1% decline while manufacturing with a 0.2% increase has shown a significantly smaller rebound from recent hurricanes and a strike at Boeing that was expected. Excluding a bounce in autos, manufacturing actually fell by 0.1%, a third straight d
U.S. November Retail Sales - Mixed detail but trend still strong
December 17, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
November retail sales with a 0.7% increase are stronger than expected overall but the 0.2% gains in the core rates both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline are weaker than expected, though an as expected 0.4% rise in the control group suggests a healthy contribution to GDP. Revisions are marginally
December 16, 2024
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Rebounding from a weaker November
December 16, 2024 4:04 PM UTC
While the index is unlikely to be quite a strong as the 58.1 S and P services PMI for December, we expect a significant bounce in December’s ISM services index, to 55.5 from November’s weaker 52.1.
U.S. December S&P PMIs - Manufacturing corrects lower, Services very strong indeed
December 16, 2024 2:59 PM UTC
December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing correcting lower top 48.3 from 47.7 after two months of improvement but services at 58.5 from 56.1 very strong indeed and the highest since October 2021.