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March 31, 2025
March 29, 2025
Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa
March 27, 2025
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large
March 27, 2025 5:46 PM UTC
We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022.
Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite
March 27, 2025 2:52 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best.
Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI
March 27, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p
U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Deficit remains very high, marginal good news from claims and GDP
March 27, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
The advance goods trade deficit of $147.9bn in February, while down from January’s record $155.6bn remains very high and suggests a sharp negative from net exports in Q1 GDP, while the inventory offset, +0.3% for wholesale and +0.1% for retail is modest. Initial claims remain low at 224k, while Q4
March 26, 2025
Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain wide
March 26, 2025 11:50 AM UTC
We expect a February advance goods deficit of $131.1bn, down from January’s dramatic import-led surge to $155.6bn, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high until January’s data was released.
Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower
March 26, 2025 11:45 AM UTC
We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Slips Even as Services Fail to Soften?
March 26, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals. They may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for the core to 3.5%. This came in spite of higher alcohol duties and no dro
March 25, 2025
U.S. March Consumer Confidence - Future expectations weakest since 2013
March 25, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.
German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?
March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%. This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation. Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp
Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain
March 25, 2025 12:10 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.
March 24, 2025
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic
March 24, 2025 6:35 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.
Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
March 24, 2025 5:39 PM UTC
We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn
U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slips below neutral but Services rebound
March 24, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing slipping back below neutral to 49.8 from 52.7, a sign that tariff concerns are having a negative impact, but services, less sensitive to tariffs, improved at 54.3 from 51.6.
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Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction
March 24, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.
March 21, 2025
Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher
March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.
March 20, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims still low, March Philly Fed slower but still positive
March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in
UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Stay Soft Amid Cost Pressures?
March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol
March 19, 2025
South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February
March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t
Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage
March 19, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
We expect February existing home sales to fall by 3.2% to 3.95m, which would be the lowest since September. Survey evidence, particularly pending home sales, suggest a weak number but it is notable that February in both 2023 and 2024 saw strong gains.
Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Another record deficit
March 19, 2025 12:34 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $325.0bn, or 4.4% of GDP, up from the record $310.9bn in Q3 when the deficit was 4.2% of GDP. This will be a fresh record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q1 2022.
UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?
March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
March 18, 2025
Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher
March 18, 2025 5:05 PM UTC
We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.
Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain wide
March 18, 2025 4:08 PM UTC
We expect a February advance goods deficit of $131.1bn, down from January’s dramatic import-led surge to $155.6bn, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high until January’s data was released.
Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain
March 18, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction
March 18, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.
U.S. February Industrial Production - Autos led, but some underlying improvement
March 18, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
February industrial production has seen a stronger than expected 0.7% rise overall with an even more impressive 0.9% rise in manufacturing. Manufacturing ex autos was less impressive up by 0.3%, though this still means three straight gains.
U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts rebound but permits edging lower
March 18, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
February housing starts are stronger than expected with a rise of 11.2% to 1501k though this needs to be seen alongside a weather-induced 11.5% decline in January. Permits with a 1.2% decline to 1456k are in line with expectations and show a third straight modest decline.
March 17, 2025
Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower
March 17, 2025 7:25 PM UTC
We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative.
Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI
March 17, 2025 4:15 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p
Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, Permits starting to slip
March 17, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
We expect February housing starts to rise by 2.5% to 1400k following a weather-depressed 9.8% decline in January, but permits to fall by 1.6% to 1450k. This would be a third straight fall.
U.S. February Retail Sales - Q1 looking subdued, but reasons unclear
March 17, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February retail sales with a gain of 0.2% overall is unimpressive, particularly with January revised down to -1.2% from -0.9% while gains of 0.3% ex auto and 0.5% ex auto and gas fail to reverse respective January decline of 0.6% and 0.8%. However the control group, which contributes to GDP, with a
Preview: Due March 18 - Canada February CPI - Firmer even on the core rates
March 17, 2025 12:06 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 7-month high of 2.1% yr/yr from 1.9% in January. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.
March 14, 2025
Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite
March 14, 2025 4:15 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best.
U.S. March Michigan CSI - 5-10 year inflation view highest since 1993
March 14, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
March’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 57.9 from 64.7 is the weakest since November 2022 with the fall led by future expectations. Consumers are particularly worried about inflation, with the 1-year view up to 4.9% from 4.3% and the more closely watched 5-10 year view at 3.9% from 3.5%.
Preview: Due March 17 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Only a partial reversal of January's drop
March 14, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to rise by 0.5% in February in what would be only a partial reversal of a 0.9% decline in January. Ex autos we expect a 0.3% increase after a 0.4% January decline while ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.4% increase after a 0.5% January decline.
UK GDP Review: Previous Resilience Gives Way to Softer Surveys
March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi
March 13, 2025
Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Another record deficit
March 13, 2025 5:01 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $325.0bn, or 4.4% of GDP, up from the record $310.9bn in Q3 when the deficit was 4.2% of GDP. This will be a fresh record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q1 2022.
U.S. February PPI - Core goods accelerate, but outweighed by weakness in services
March 13, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
February PPI is surprisingly subdued at unchanged overall with an even softer 0.1% decline ex food and energy. Much of the surprise comes from trade prices with ex food, energy and trade up by 0.2%, but even this is moderate. Initial claims at 220k from 222k suggest the labor market remains healthy.
Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY
March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
March 12, 2025
Brazil CPI Review: 1.3% Monthly Growth, with Seasonal Impacts
March 12, 2025 10:43 PM UTC
Brazil's February CPI increased by 1.3%, the highest in 22 years, largely driven by the removal of subsidized electricity bills, which boosted Housing by 4.4%. The year-over-year inflation rose to 5.1%, above the BCB's target. Key contributors included Education (up 4.4%) and Food and Beverages (up