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September 12, 2025
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 12, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
We do expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Recent strength difficult to sustain
September 12, 2025 5:13 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to slip, manufacturing to 51.5 from 53.0 and services to 53.5 from 54.5. We expect slippage more because recent strength looks difficult to sustain rather than because of any clear signals for weakness.
U.S. September Preliminary Michigan CSI - Lower as 5-10 year inflation expectations rebound
September 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
September’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.4 is down from 58.2 and weaker than expected, if still above April and May levels. Worries seem to be longer term, with expectations down by more than current conditions and longer term inflation expectations bouncing while the 1-year view is unchanged.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit
September 12, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in
FOMC Preview for September 17: 25bps Easing on Increased Labor Market Risk
September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i
UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs
September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer
September 11, 2025
U.S. August Budget Deficit falls from a year ago in part due to tariffs
September 11, 2025 6:34 PM UTC
August’s US budget deficit of $344.8bn is down from $380.1bn in August 2024, a $35.3bn decline. Most, but not all of the improvement can be explained by a $22.5bn increase in tariff receipts, to $29.5bn.
U.S. August CPI, Weekly Initial Claims - Risks on both sides of Fed mandate but possible seasonal adjustment issues for Claims
September 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
August CPI is firmer than expected overall at 0.4% and while the core rate was as expected at 0.3% its rise before rounding at 0.346% is uncomfortably high emphasizing the upside risks to the Fed’s inflation mandate. Initial claims at 263k from 236k however point to downside risks to the Fed emplo
September 10, 2025
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Correcting lower
September 10, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
We expect August durable goods orders to fall by 1.0% in a third straight fall, though still not fully reversing a surge of 16.6% in May, while ex transport orders fall by 0.5% in a correction from a 1.0% July increase, that was the strongest of three straight gains.
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
September 10, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
We expect August CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.37% and 0.31%. This would be the second straight gains slightly above 0.3% in the core rate with the impact of tariffs starting to escalate.
UK CPI Preview (Sep 17): Goods Inflation the Recent Problem, Not Services?
September 10, 2025 9:05 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Partly due to rounding and fuel (and possibly food) costs, we see the headline rising a notch to 3.9% in the August figure, this foresh
September 09, 2025
Bank of Canada Preview for September 17: Weak data justifies resumption of easing
September 9, 2025 6:26 PM UTC
After the Bank of Canada’s last meeting on July 30 we expected rates to be left on hold in September before easing resumed in October. However with data since that meeting having been mostly weak, a 25bps easing, the first move since March, now looks likely at the September 17 meeting, to 2.5%. We
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
September 9, 2025 2:58 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk.
U.S. March 2025 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revised Down by a Preliminary 911k
September 9, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
The preliminary estimate for the downward revision to the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark at -911k is steeper than generally than expected and exceeds even the unusually sharp 818k negative revision reported a year ago for the March 2024 benchmark. The data will be incorporated into the Januar
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - A moderate gain after a surge in July
September 9, 2025 12:40 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, moderate gains after shocking surges of 0.9% in each series in July, which broke a string of mostly subdued outcomes from February through June. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a 0.3% increase to follow a 0.6% rise in Jul
U.S. August NFIB survey - Optimism firmer while price signals slip
September 9, 2025 11:29 AM UTC
August’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 100.8 from 100.3 has reached its highest level since January, extending a bounce from June’s pause at 98.6. Most encouragingly, inflationary signals have slipped for a second straight month after a bounce in June.
September 08, 2025
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slightly weaker for sales and prices
September 8, 2025 7:12 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to slip by 2.5% to 3.91m to resume a modestly negative trend after a 2.0% increase in July. This would take the level to its lowest since September 2024.
Expecting a Negative Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision
September 8, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
Tuesday sees the release of the preliminary Labor Dep’t estimate for the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark, with expectations for a significant negative, possibly as large as the -818k preliminary estimate for the March 2024 benchmark delivered a year ago. The eventual revision to March 2024 p
September 05, 2025
Canada August Employment - With Q3 looking weak, we now expect the BoC to ease in September
September 5, 2025 1:41 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 65.5k decline with unemployment up to 7.1% from 6.9% is much weaker than expected. While the detail is a little less weak than the headlines suggest, and the data has been volatile recently, we are revising our Bank of Canada call, and now expect a 25bps ea
U.S. August Employment - Trend now close to flat, backing case for easing
September 5, 2025 1:03 PM UTC
August’s non-farm payroll shows that job growth is now minimal, with a rise of 22k almost completely offset by a modest 21k in net downward revisions. Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2% while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, both as expected, though the workweek was weaker than expected. The
September 04, 2025
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos to slip, but core rates to maintain trend
September 4, 2025 6:53 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.2% increase in August retail sales restrained by a correction lower in auto sales. However we expect the core rates ex autos and ex autos and gasoline to maintain trend with gains of 0.4%.
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary
September 4, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st