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April 17, 2026
Preview: Due April 20 - Canada March CPI - Higher on energy but BoC core rates seen close to stable
April 17, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.8% yr/yr from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest since May 2024. We expect ex food and energy CPI to also pick up, to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.0%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to be close to stable, still slightly above the 2.0% targe
April 16, 2026
Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S and P PMIs - Slightly firmer despite Middle East risk
April 16, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
We expect modest increases in April’s S and P PMIs, manufacturing to a healthy 52.5 from 52.3 and services to a neutral 50.0 after March’s 49.8 fell below neutral for the first time since January 2023.
U.S. March Industrial Production - Hit by corrections in mining, utilities and autos
April 16, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
Contrasting resilience in Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys into April, March industrial production is surprisingly weak, with a 0.5% decline overall and manufacturing down by 0.1%. It is too early to conclude this is a response to the energy shock rather than simply a weak month aft
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, price indices mostly firmer but not alarming
April 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests the economy so far is holding up well to the oil shock, with initial claims low at 207k from 218k and the April Philly Fed at 26.7 from 18.1, reaching its strongest since January 2025. Price data is mostly firmer, but not alarmingly so.
Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March
April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st
Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?
April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a
UK GDP Review (Apr 16): Fresh But Fleeting Momentum Before the War
April 16, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
Without the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by this latest GDP update which showed a very much above consensus m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. But of course, the conflict has ch
April 15, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - February exports gain less sustainable that that of imports
April 15, 2026 4:54 PM UTC
Trade data has been volatile recently and advance goods data could have an impact on Q1 GDP expectations, with GDP data due on April 30. We expect a deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.5bn in February and $80.9bn in January.
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stronger month though March may slip
April 15, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect February GDP to increase by 0.3%, slightly stronger than a 0.2% gain predicted with January’s report, though risk is for a weaker preliminary estimate for March. If March declines by 0.1% after a 0.3% February increase, and January’s 0.1% increase is unrevised, this would imply a 1.6%
U.S. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Resilient, prices mostly firmer but not shockingly so
April 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
April’s Empire State manufacturing index at 11.0 is up from a near neutral -0.2 in March and the strongest since November, suggesting activity is resilient to the Middle East crisis. 6-month expectations have however taken a hit, falling to 19.6 from 31.0, this the lowest since November.
April 14, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense
April 14, 2026 3:38 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.
Eurozone: ECB Downplaying Supply of Credit as it Focuses on its Cost
April 14, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
Even amid increasing suggestions that the Middle East conflict will reap marked real economy damage that should limit the length and extent of any inflation surge, markets are still pricing in almost three 25 bp ECB hikes in the coming year. We think this is still very excessive and reflects an ou
April 13, 2026
UK CPI Preview (Apr 22): Inflation Being Fuelled But Watch Financial Conditions?
April 13, 2026 2:39 PM UTC
The stormy weather inflation wise is now very evident, most notably in UK fuel prices surging. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching both consensus and BoE projections we see it jumping to 3.5% in March. Services, however, may stay at 4.3% which was a four-year
U.S. March Existing Home Sales - A weak month, downside risk in Q2
April 13, 2026 2:24 PM UTC
March existing home sales with a 3.6% decline to 3.98m are weaker than expected. There may be some lagged impact from bad weather in late February but if energy prices remain elevated, restricting the ability of the Fed to ease, there are downside risks in Q2.
Preview: Due April 14 - U.S. March PPI - Strongest since March 2022
April 13, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 1.0% in March, which would be the strongest rise since March 2022. The rise will be led by energy, though the core rates ex food and energy at 0.5% and ex food, energy and trade at 0.4% are likely to maintain a recent acceleration.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Slightly stronger on the quarter, but slower yr/yr
April 13, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slightly firmer than the 0.7% seen in Q4 that was the slowest since Q2 2021 but still seeing the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Not an extreme reaction to the energy shock
April 10, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
The preliminary April Michigan CSI of 47.6 from 53.3 is a record low but the monthly decline of 5.7 points, while significant, is not as large as a 7.7 point fall in March 2025 when tariff worries were building. Inflation expectations are up sharply on a one-year view, and modestly on a 5-10 year vi
Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2
April 10, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.
Canada March Employment - Subdued as expected but with a surprise bounce in wages
April 10, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment gain of 14.1k is in line with market expectations and not very impressive after a plunge of 83.9k in February that may have been exaggerated by weather. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.7% as expected. There was an upside surprise in wage growth, the hourly rate for perman
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
April 09, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.