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May 08, 2026
Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
May 8, 2026 6:34 PM UTC
We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.
U.S. Preliminary May Michigan CSI - Dip on current conditions, expectations slightly improved
May 8, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
The preliminary May Michigan CSI of 48.2 is down from 49.8 in April and weaker than expected. The details are however more surprising, with the fall due to current conditions not expectations and inflation expectations slightly softer.
Canada April Employment - Weak data suggests little case for tightening
May 8, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment report with a 6-month high of 6.9% for unemployment following two straight months at 6.7%, and a fall of 17.7k in employment, is clearly a weak one and suggests there is little case for the Bank of Canada to consider tightening as long as core inflation shows no clear fee
U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda
May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl
Eurozone: In Dire Straits?
May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing. High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not
May 07, 2026
Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April
May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
Preview: Due May 8 - Canada April Employment - A modest gain with stable unemployment
May 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in March, a second straight modest rise to follow a gain of 14.1k in March, still not close to erasing the steep loss of 83.9k in February which extended a substantial 24.8k decline in January. We expect a 6.7% unemployment rate for a third straight m
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
U.S. Initial Claims still very low, Q1 Productivity and Costs report shows strength in non-labor costs
May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC
Initial claims at 200k are up from last week’s exceptionally low 190k but still consistent with layoffs running at veery low levels. Q1 non-farm productivity at 0.8% is marginally below consensus and unit labor costs at 2.3% more significantly so but non-labor costs saw a strong 8.0% increase whic
May 06, 2026
Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
May 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe
U.S. April ADP Employment - Labor market still looking healthy
May 6, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
April’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 109k is slightly stronger than expected though not as strong as weekly ADP data had been hinting. Still, as the strongest increase since January 2025, it suggests the labor market is not weakening, suggesting Fed focus should be on inflation
May 05, 2026
Preview: Due May 11 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - An upward correction but trend may be slowing
May 5, 2026 5:43 PM UTC
We expect existing home sales to maintain a recent choppy pattern in April, with a 2.0% increase to 4.06m, in a partial correction from a 3.6% decline in March. Underlying trend is probably starting to slip as inflation fears reduce Fed easing prospects, even if our forecast implies the first positi
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
U.S. April ISM Services, March Job Openings, New Home Sales - Economy growing moderately
May 5, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest round of data provides no major net surprises, with a modest decline in job openings, two straight moderate increases in new home sales and a modest slowing in the ISM services index. The data is consistent with an economy still showing moderate growth.
March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices
May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February.
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
May 5, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?
May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC
Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. This is likely to have been ab
May 04, 2026
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March
May 4, 2026 5:31 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core
May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. February and March New Home Sales - Trend subdued, but January was below trend
May 4, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
New home sales for both February and March will be released on May 5. We expect a level of 675k in each month, which would be up by 15.0% from January’s 587k, which was the lowest level since October 2022. January’s data was well below recent trend and may have been weather-impacted. We would no
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. April ISM Services - March new orders imply underlying strength persists
May 4, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect April’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 54.0 in March, after slipping from February’s 56.1, which was the highest reading since July 2002. April’s S and P Services PMI picked up, but was still quite weak at 51.3 after slipping to 49.8 in March. The two series are not well
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
May 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.