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May 15, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 15, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
U.S. April Industrial Production - Led by a bounce in autos, but underlying trend positive
May 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
Following an upbeat Empire Sate manufacturing survey for May, April industrial production gives further evidence that the manufacturing sector is in good health, rising by a stronger than expected 0.7% overall with a 0.6% increase in manufacturing, though half of the latter came from autos.
U.S. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strength in both activity and prices
May 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
May’s Empire State manufacturing index at 19.6, up from 11.0 in April, is the highest since April 2022, giving further evidence that the manufacturing sector is holding up well despite the Middle east conflict.
May 14, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 14, 2026 4:17 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 14, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience
May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?
May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside. Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?
May 13, 2026
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
May 12, 2026
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March
May 12, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.
U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter
May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.
UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?
May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March. Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo
May 11, 2026
U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Flat picture, downside risk
May 11, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
April existing home sales at 4.02m were slightly softer than expected and up only 0.2% from March, but with March revised up to 4.01m from 3.98m the net result can be seen as close to consensus, while trend continues to have little direction.
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion
May 11, 2026 12:28 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
May 08, 2026
Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
May 8, 2026 6:34 PM UTC
We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.
U.S. Preliminary May Michigan CSI - Dip on current conditions, expectations slightly improved
May 8, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
The preliminary May Michigan CSI of 48.2 is down from 49.8 in April and weaker than expected. The details are however more surprising, with the fall due to current conditions not expectations and inflation expectations slightly softer.
Canada April Employment - Weak data suggests little case for tightening
May 8, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment report with a 6-month high of 6.9% for unemployment following two straight months at 6.7%, and a fall of 17.7k in employment, is clearly a weak one and suggests there is little case for the Bank of Canada to consider tightening as long as core inflation shows no clear fee
U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda
May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl
Eurozone: In Dire Straits?
May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing. High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not
May 07, 2026
Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April
May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.