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June 19, 2025
Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold
June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC
Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period. Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate. We would suspect
June 18, 2025
U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits, Weekly Initial Claims - Trends weakening
June 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
May housing starts with a 9.8% decline to 1256k are well below expectations and the weakest since June 2020 through a 2.0% fall in permits, also below consensus, suggests a fairly moderate weakening in trend. Initial claims at 245k from 250k and continued claims at .945m from 1.951m are slightly low
South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY
June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do
UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Falls Clearly
June 18, 2025 6:40 AM UTC
As for the UK, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what would happen after the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises fell due, albeit now offset somewhat by a fall in petrol prices. The result was a notch higher t
June 17, 2025
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - Another marginal upward revision, but still negative
June 17, 2025 7:26 PM UTC
We expect the third (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised marginally higher to -0.1% from the second (preliminary) estimate of -0.2%. This would follow an upward revision from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%.
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to extend correction from March record
June 17, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
We expect May’s advance goods trade deficit to fall to $79.5bn from $87.0bn in April, extending the sharp correction from the record $162.0bn deficit seen in March as imports surged ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Preview: Due June 27 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
June 17, 2025 3:02 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in May’s core PCE price index, matching to core CPI, continuing to show limited tariff pass-through. Subdued data are also likely from personal income, which we expect to be unchanged, and personal spending, where we expect a 0.1% decline.
Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiples to lead modest declines
June 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
We expect May housing starts to see a modest fall of 0.8% to 1350k to follow a 1.6% April increase, while permits fall by 1.5% to 1400k after a drop of 4.0% in April. Trend now looks marginally negative though the May declines are likely to be led by the volatile multiples sector.
U.S. June NAHB Homebuilders Index - Weakest since December 2022
June 17, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
June’s NAHB homebuilders’ index with a decline to 32 from 34 is the weakest since December 2022, extending a sharp 6 point fall seen in May. The data suggests strength in April new home sales is unlikely to be sustained.
U.S. May Retail Sales - Two straight declines as confidence slides
June 17, 2025 12:50 PM UTC
May retail sales with a 0.9% decline are slightly weaker than expected. The ex auto data at -0.3% and ex auto and gas at -0.1% are negative too, though the control group which contributes to GDP was resilient with a 0.4% rise.
June 16, 2025
Preview: Due Jun 26 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Strong rise but fully on aircraft
June 16, 2025 6:05 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods to rise by 6.7% overall, with the rise likely to be fully due to a surge in aircraft orders as implied by Boeing data. We expect ex transport orders to rise by a marginal 0.1%, and transport orders to be negative outside aircraft.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections lower after May gains, but remaining positive
June 16, 2025 4:15 PM UTC
We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show modest corrections lower to correct May improvements, which contrasted weaker data from the ISM surveys in May. However the corrections, manufacturing to 51.0 from 52.0, and services to 53.0 from 53.7, should be moderate enough to suggest scope for gains in Ju
U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Weak but 6-month expectations bounce
June 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
June's Empire State manufacturing index at -16.0 from -9.2 suggests increasing weakness, though the series can be erratic, as noted by a -20.0 reading in March and a positive 20.2 in November 2024, neither of which was sustained. Six month expectations saw a significant bounce, to 21.2 from -2.0.
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, underlying momentum subdued
June 16, 2025 12:07 PM UTC
We expect a 0.7% decline in May retail sales as auto sales show a sharp reversal from recent strength. Ex autos we expect a subdued 0.1% increase, with a 0.2% rise ex autos and gasoline. Both of these outcomes would match those of April.
June 14, 2025
Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi
June 13, 2025
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May New Home Sales - April strength unlikely to be sustained
June 13, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
June 13, 2025 4:46 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.
U.S. June Preliminary Michigan CSI - Back to levels seen before the reciprocal tariff announcement
June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.
India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger
June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven.
June 12, 2025
Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY
June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to surge but to reverse in Q2
June 12, 2025 5:06 PM UTC
We expect a record Q1 US current account deficit of $430bn, up from $303.9bn in Q4, which will probably be revised a little lower. The rise in the deficit will be largely on a pre-tariff surge in goods imports and is likely to be reversed in Q2. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 5.7%, up f
U.S. May PPI - Soft but recent revisions have been large, initial claims picking up
June 12, 2025 1:12 PM UTC
May’s PPI, matching May’s CPI, has come in softer than expected at 0.1% and in both the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, though the downside surprise is partially offset by upward revisions to April, overall and ex food and energy both to -0.2% from -0.5% and -0.4% r
UK GDP Review: GDP Overstating Activity Less Clearly But Looking Weaker?
June 12, 2025 6:54 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP could be expected for the April data, especially as Q1 numbers may have been boosted by added production destined for the U.S in anticipation of tariffs. In addition, real estate activity seems to have dropped after the raisin