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February 12, 2026
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
February 12, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
First the good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year. But as is familiar with recent UK real economy data, there is a negative flip side with the 0.1 m/m December advance negated by downward revisions to previous figures (November
February 11, 2026
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 11, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger
February 10, 2026
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024
February 10, 2026 7:16 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Firmer prices matching income and spending
February 10, 2026 4:02 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by Q4 GDP data released at the same time, but is likely to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, the highest since February. We expect personal income to rise by 0.3%, underperforming a 0.4% rise in spending, with bot
Preview: Due February 11 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum
February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati
UK CPI Preview (Feb18): Fresh and Marked Fall to Resume as Core to Hit New Cycle-Low?
February 10, 2026 11:35 AM UTC
UK policy makers may not be able to say they have won the war against inflation, but a clear victory may be seen in the batter likely in the next few months with a likely return to the 2% target by April These projected falls are likely to commence with the looming January numbers (Figure 1) where a
February 09, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. February S and P PMIs - Manufacturing significantly stronger, Services marginally so
February 9, 2026 6:32 PM UTC
We expect improvement in February’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 53.5 from 52.4, with services seeing only a modest increase to 53.0 from 52.7.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
February 9, 2026 4:26 PM UTC
We expect December durable goods orders to fall by 5.0% after a 5.3% increase in November, the reversal led by aircraft after a strong November increase. Ex transport we expect a 0.4% increase, matching the gain in November.
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.
February 06, 2026
Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025
February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti
Canada January Employment - Ontario explains employment and labor force slippage
February 6, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a mixed employment report for January, with a 24.8k decline in employment led by manufacturing and the province of Ontario, but a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.8%. Weather may have played a part in the weakness in Ontario, though details are mixed leaving the d
February 05, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A modest correction from a surprisingly strong Q3
February 5, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to decline by 0.3% annualized, marginally softer than an unchanged estimate made by the Bank of Canada with January’s Monetary Policy report. This would be consistent with December GDP rising by 0.1% as projected with November’s data.
U.S. December JOLTS report - Third straight decline in openings
February 5, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
December’s JOLTS report has delivered a 386k decline in job openings to 6.542m, which is the weakest level since September 2020 during the pandemic. The series is a volatile one but the decline is the third straight, the first time this has happened since July 2023.
Preview: Due February 6 - Canada January Employment - A second straight subdued month after three strong ones
February 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 15k in January, a second straight moderate increase following December’s 8.2k that followed three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to remain at December’s rate of 6.8%, but to fall before rounding.
U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January
February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.
UK GDP Preview (Feb 12): Underlying Economy Fragility Continues?
February 5, 2026 11:21 AM UTC
Even given the surprisingly solid November GDP release, this merely returns the level of GDP to where it was in June, albeit briefly as for the latter. Partly undermined by wet and warm weather through the month, we see no change on the December figure, in m/m terms (Figure 1), thus no reversal of
CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13
February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin
February 04, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm
February 4, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.
Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.