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May 09, 2025
Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives.
Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.
A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi
Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.
India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens.
UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero
May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1). But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum
May 08, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.
Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak
May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC
Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides. The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last
May 06, 2025
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April PPI - A stronger month after a weak March
May 6, 2025 5:05 PM UTC
We expect April PPI to bounce from a weak March with a 0.3% rise overall and a 0.4% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%. Tariffs are likely to continue supporting goods prices while services are likely to correct from a weak March.
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March
May 6, 2025 3:49 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.
US March trade deficit surges as service export weakness adds to pre-tariff strength in goods imports
May 6, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
March’s record US trade deficit of $140.5bn is even higher than expected though consistent with the assumptions of the Q1 GDP report. Exports surged by 4.4% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement while exports rose by a marginal 0.2%.
May 05, 2025
U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a slowing trend
May 5, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 51.6 has corrected higher from March’s 50.8 though remains quite subdued and is weaker than each index from September through February. Prices paid accelerated, to 65.1 from 60.9, reaching their highest since January 2023.
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Record deficit on pre-tariff import surge
May 5, 2025 12:00 PM UTC
We expect a record March deficit of $140.4bn, up from $122.7bn in February and the previous record of $130.7bn set in January. We expect a marginal 0.1% decline in exports but a surge of 4.4% in imports ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through
May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre
May 02, 2025
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, but underlying momentum to persist
May 2, 2025 6:22 PM UTC
After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.
Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Trend has little direction
May 2, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
We expect April housing starts to rise by 5.7% to 1400k after a fall of 11.4% in March, while permits fall by 0.5% to 1460k after a 0.5% increase in March. While starts have been more volatile than permits in recent months, trend continues to have little direction.
FOMC Preview for May 7: No change with future policy left data-dependent
May 2, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
In the current exceptionally uncertain environment, the FOMC looks set to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% at its May 7 meeting, and give little away on future policy. This meeting will not see the dots updated. Chairman Powell however at the press conference is likely to signal that future meeting
U.S. April Employment - Suggests economy where Fed wants it, but can it persist?
May 2, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll with a 177k increase is on the firm side of expectations and shows the labor market remained solid in early April, but the upside surprise is offset by 58k in net downward revisions. Unemployment was unchanged at 4.2% as expected but a below consensus 0.2% rise in average
EZ HICP Review: Headline Fails to Fall as Services Inflation Rises on Easter Effect?
May 2, 2025 9:46 AM UTC
EZ HICP inflation failed to fall back toward the 2% target in flash April data, instead staying at 2.2%. More notably, services inflation jumped 0.4 ppt, very probably due to the impact of the timing of Easter affecting airfares and holiday costs. As was the case when this Easter effect last happe
May 01, 2025
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Headlines provide some relief, but picture remains worrying
May 1, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 has held up better than expected, and most regional Fed surveys, falling only marginally from March’s 49.0. Prices paid have also shown less response to the increased tariffs than generally feared, with only a marginal gain to 69.8 from 69.4.
Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few clear signals for labor market weakness
May 1, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average. Initial claims were showing no signs of labor market weakness in the payroll survey week, with a bounce in the latest week not yet a clear change in trend. We expect unemploy
U.S. Initial Claims bounce a warning rather than a clear change of trend
May 1, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims and continued claims have both seen a bounce in the latest week, the former to 241kk from 223k and the latter to 1916k from 1833k. While there may be some seasonal adjustment issues from Easter, the data serves as a tentative warning that the labor market may be starting to lose momen
April 30, 2025
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April
April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect