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January 02, 2026
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 2, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 2, 2026 4:21 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme
Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
January 2, 2026 3:05 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 2, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
December 23, 2025
U.S. Q3 GDP: Better Than Expected, But
December 23, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
Q3 GDP came in better than expected due to a big net export contribution to growth. Gross domestic purchases at 2.7% were more in line with expectations, with mixed performance in key expenditure sectors. We see growth slowing in Q4, with net exports unlikely to repeat the Q3 outcome and consume
December 22, 2025
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower
December 22, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
December 19, 2025
EZ HICP Preview (Jan 7): Is Services Inflation Problematic?
December 19, 2025 11:10 AM UTC
HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. But we see the headline rate falling out of that range in December to 1.9%, this preceding what may be a short-lived fall toward 1.5% in H1 2026. Som
December 18, 2025
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
December 18, 2025 8:46 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
December 18, 2025 6:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug
Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
December 18, 2025 4:19 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue
December 18, 2025 2:37 PM UTC
We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?
December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov
December 17, 2025
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
December 17, 2025 6:56 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December S and P services PMI suggests downside risk even if its level at 52.9 remained above November’s ISM services index.
South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November
December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled
December 17, 2025 1:41 PM UTC
The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b
UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?
December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures. This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp
December 16, 2025
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower
December 16, 2025 4:25 PM UTC
We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.