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March 27, 2026
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Short term inflation expectations rise, long term view stable
March 27, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
The final March Michigan CSI at 53.3 is weaker than the preliminary of 55.5 which appears to be a response to worries over the Middle East and energy prices. The 1 year inflation expectation has been revised up significantly, but the Fed will be relieved to see the 5-10 year view unchanged.
Preview: Due April 10 - Canada March Employment - Highly volatile, but trend still looks modestly positive
March 27, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 40k in March, in a correction from an exceptionally large decline of 83.9k in February which may have been influenced by weather. While the data has been very volatile, underlying trend is probably still moderately positive. We expect an unemployment rate
March 26, 2026
Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
March 26, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
Preview: Due April 6 (rescheduled from April 3) - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 26, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?
March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data. We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections. But both it
U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable
March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.
March 25, 2026
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
UK CPI Review: Goodbye to the Good Old Days?
March 25, 2026 7:33 AM UTC
After January’s clear fall, even in the core rate, where the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) it stayed there in February’s numbers – matching both consensus and BoE projections. Services fell 0.1 ppt to 4.3% which was a four-year low (Figure 1) but the co
March 24, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 24, 2026 6:49 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February
March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 24, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement
March 24, 2026 2:34 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 24, 2026 12:39 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
March 23, 2026
March 20, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued
March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC
We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.
Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr
March 20, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.
March 19, 2026
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 19, 2026 5:00 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments
March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (
U.S. January New Home Sales - Weakness erases signs of improvement in trend
March 19, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
January new home sales have seen a sharp 17.6% decline to 587k, the weakest level since October 2022. Much of this weakness is probably due to weather, though other data from the housing sector suggests that signs of a pick-up in late 2025 have faded in early 2026.
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt
March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet
March 18, 2026
Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high
March 18, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.