Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday

January 20, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a

Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs

January 17, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.

Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. Q4 GDP - Maintaining Momentum

January 17, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, slower than Q3’s 3.1% but still maintaining solid momentum.  

SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December

January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th

Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI

January 16, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

December’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q4 totals due with the GDP report on January 30. Ahead of the GDP data we expect a 0.2% increase in core PCE prices, and 0.4% gains in both personal income and spending. 

India CPI Review: CPI Cools but Target Not in Sight

January 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, driven by a seasonal decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals. With inflation within the RBI’s target range, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy review for potential rate cuts.

U.S. December Retail Sales - Trend still solid, Philly Fed surges in January

January 16, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

December retail sales with a 0.4% increase overall and ex auto, 0.3% ex autos and gasoline, are on the weak side of expectations but maintain respectable momentum, particularly in the control group which contributes to GDP, which rose by 0.7%. A strikingly strong January Philly Fed manufacturing ind

UK GDP Review: Continued Weakness Evident – BoE Voicing Concern?

January 16, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

The latest set of GDP data add to already-growing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year.  As we envisaged, November saw a bare almost-0.1% m/m rise, this came after October saw a second successi

FOMC Preview for January 29: A Cautious Hold

January 15, 2025 8:10 PM UTC

The FOMC looks set to keep rates on hold at 4.25-4.5% at its January 29 meeting. The statement is unlikely to give much away but the message is likely to be one of cautious optimism on inflation, suggesting further easing is likely but dependent on incoming data. Policy uncertainty under the incomin

Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

Preview: Due January 31 - Canada November GDP - A dip, but Q4 looking stronger than Q3

January 15, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.1% decline in November, in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s 0.3% increase. That would suggest a trend of around 0.1% per month. A 0.1% increase in December would leave Q4 marginally below 2.0% annualized, up from 1.0% in Q3. 

Preview: Due January 16 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Solid end to Q4

January 15, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November. 

U.S. December CPI - A modest comfort to the Fed, but early 2025 data will be crucial

January 15, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

While December’s headline CPI is in line with expectations with a 0.4% increase, the core rate ex food and energy is subdued at 0.2% following four straight gains of 0.3%, and a downside surprise is quite comfortable with the gain before rounding being 0.225%. Price data did however pick up in Jan

UK CPI Review: Clearly More Reassuring Inflation Signals

January 15, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns.  Indeed, with markets are looking for the headline rate to stay at November’s 2.6% outcome, the act

Preview: Due January 15 - U.S. December CPI - Stronger overall, core rate maintaining trend

January 14, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

We expect December’s CPI to increase by a nine-month high of 0.4% overall with a fifth straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. We expect the ex-food and energy index to increase by 0.26% before rounding, which would make it the softest of the five straight 0.3% gains in the core rate. PPI is no

Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. December PPI - Yr/yr growth accelerating

January 13, 2025 5:37 PM UTC

We expect December PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and ex food, energy and trade, though ex food and energy we expect a slightly slower rise of 0.2%, though trend appears to have regained momentum.

Bank of Canada Preview for January 29: Easing to continue but more cautiously

January 13, 2025 5:23 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on January 29, and will make its decision a few hours before one is made by the FOMC. The BoC decision will be following two straight easings of 50bps, though minutes from the last meeting, on December 11, showed a debate between 25bps and 50bps, and that they expected a mor

Preview: Due January 24 - U.S. December Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest another rise

January 13, 2025 3:11 PM UTC

Strength in pending home sales, reaching their highest level since February 2023 in November, suggests a rise in December existing home sales, we expect by 3.6% to 4.30m, which would be the highest level since February 2024.

Brazil CPI Review: Some Deterioration in December

January 13, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

Brazil’s CPI grew by 0.52% in December, ending 2024 at 4.8%, above the Central Bank’s target range (1.5%–4.5%). Key drivers included food (+1.2% m/m) and household spending (+0.7%). Core inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3% Y/Y. Elevated inflation is expected in early

Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday

January 13, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a

Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025

January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.

Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?

January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,

Mexico CPI Review: Downtrend Continues

January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci

U.S. December Employment - Charts and table

January 10, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still

January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.

UK CPI Preview (Jan 15): More Mixed Inflation Signals

January 10, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns.  Admittedly, markets are looking for the headline rate to nudge up a notch, although we look for a st

India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months. 

Preview: Due January 10 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Closer to solid underlying trend

January 8, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str

U.S. December ADP Employment - Modest slowing, but initial claims suggest strong labor market

January 8, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

ADP’s November estimate for private sector employment growth of 122k is slightly softer than expected but not sufficiently so to change payroll expectations (we continue to expect a 175k rise, 140k in the private sector). Labor market signals, most notably initial claims, generally remain healthy.

Preview: Due January 16 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Solid end to Q4

January 7, 2025 7:10 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November. 

Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. December PPI - Yr/yr growth accelerating

January 7, 2025 6:03 PM UTC

We expect December PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and ex food, energy and trade, though ex food and energy we expect a slightly slower rise of 0.2%, though trend appears to have regained momentum.

Preview: Due January 15 - U.S. December CPI - Stronger overall, core rate maintaining trend

January 7, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

We expect December’s CPI to increase by a nine-month high of 0.4% overall with a fifth straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. We expect the ex-food and energy index to increase by 0.26% before rounding, which would make it the softest of the five straight 0.3% gains in the core rate.