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April 17, 2025

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Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal

U.S. Initial Claims low but Philly Fed plunges, mixed housing data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix

April 16, 2025

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

U.S. March Industrial Production - Strong Q1 ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC

March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.

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U.S. March Retail Sales - Autos lead bounce ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Respite Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall

April 15, 2025

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Argentina: Moving to Phase 3, Bands Flotation
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC

Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400

Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.

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Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

U.S. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 6-month expectations plunge, prices rising
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

April’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.1 was weak, but less so than February’s -20.0. However looking at the details weakness in 6-month expectations and strength in prices shows tariffs are doing some damage.

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UK Labor Market – A Tale of Two Labor Markets?
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Policy-making is fraught with difficult decision making at the best of times.  But at present in the UK, such decisions are made all the more problematic given inconsistencies, if not conflicts, in the data backdrop, thereby making any reading of the economy all the more subjective.  Is employment

April 14, 2025

U.S. March NY Fed Survey shows near term consumer inflation expeactations up, but longer term still anchored
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the 1-year inflation view at 3.58% from 3.13%, reaching its highest since September 2023. However continued with the 3 and 5 year views still well anchored the Fed should feel relief at this data.

Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.

April 12, 2025

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Soaring Inflation Hits Two-Year High in March with 10.3% YoY
Paying Article

April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

April 11, 2025

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Slowing trend, though still above pre-pandemic pace
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 5:53 PM UTC

We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, on the low side of recent trend. This would see yr/yr growth slow to 3.5%, the slowest since Q2 2021, from 3.8%. 

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S&P PMIs - Tariffs pose downside risks
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 4:46 PM UTC

We expect April’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in both manufacturing, to 48.5 from 50.2, as the cost of supplies is lifted by tariffs, and services, to 51.0 from 54.4, as consumer sentiment is undermined. Impact is uncertain but risk is on the downside, with sharp declines not to be ruled out.

U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Pessimism deepens further
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.

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Brazil CPI Review: March Acceleration, Hike Confirmation
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

March CPI in Brazil rose 0.6%, above expectations, pushing the annual rate to 5.5%. Broad-based price increases, especially in food, signal persistent inflation pressures. Core inflation, notably in services, is well above the BCB’s target, and external volatility adds risk. With activity and cred

U.S. March PPI - Some acceleration in core goods. but outweighed by weakness elsewhere
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

March PPI, like the CPI and February’s PPI, is surprisingly subdued at -0.4% overall, -0.1% ex food and energy with a modest 0.1% increase ex food, energy and trade. There is some sign of stronger inflation in core goods, but this outweighed by easing pressures in services, food and energy.

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UK GDP Review (Apr 11): Marked Strength in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

UK data can be erratic, but the hugely unexpected surge in February GDP numbers (Figure 1) looks hard to fathom.  A 0.5% m/m jump suggests the economy grew by an annualized 6%-plus in the month.  This is hard to square against the message from surveys and other data such as that for the labor mark

April 10, 2025

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Mexico CPI Review: Moving as Expected
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Mexico’s March CPI rose 0.31%, matching expectations but below the historical average. Annual inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by core components like food and services. Non-core inflation fell due to lower energy prices. Food saw strong gains, while transport costs declined. The narrowing gap

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February rise to prove misleading
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 1:29 PM UTC

We expect March existing home sales to fall by 6.1% to 4.0m, which would be the weakest level since September 2024. This would follow a 4.2% February increase that corrected a 4.7% January decline. February data was significantly above trend in both 2023 and 2024.

Preview: Due April 11 - U.S. March PPI - Ex food and energy to bounce from a weak February
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

We expect March PPI to increase by a moderate 0.2% overall, restrained by dips in food and energy, but we expect a 0.4% bounce ex food and energy after a 0.1% dip in February. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%.

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U.S. March CPI - Pre-tariff momentum appears lower than was realised
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

March CPI comes as a pleasant surprise, a 0.1% decline overall led by an expected dip in gasoline, but the 0.1% rise ex food and energy is well below consensus and recent trend and suggests the inflationary pressures entering the trade war are lower than was previously thought. Initial claims, up 4k

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Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Returns To Positive Territory
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase

April 09, 2025

Preview: Due Apr 23 - U.S. March New Home Sales - Stable trend but downside risk
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

We expect a March new home sales level of 660k, which would be a 2.4% decline after a 1.8% February increase if February’s 676k outcome is unrevised. While other housing sector data has been quite volatile new home sales have seen little direction. Risk is on the downside, modestly for this month

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Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down. Tariffs will hit the CPI with force

April 08, 2025

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Brazil: Credit Accelerating Despite Higher Rates
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 6:44 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has resumed raising the policy rate due to persistent inflation concerns, despite expectations of credit deceleration. In contrast, credit has accelerated in recent months, indicating that the credit channel through monetary policy may be compromised, increasing disi

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to rise, ex transport to correct lower
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.5% overall led by a strong rise in aircraft but ex transport we expect a 0.2% decline to correct a 0.7% increase in February. 

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Bank of Canada Preview for April 16: Easing to pause, but unlikely to be done
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 16 and we expect that strength in some recent data and high uncertainty will see rates left unchanged at 2.75%. There will be little forward guidance and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report may avoid providing its usual economic forecasts. We do not expect that

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UK CPI Preview (Apr 16): Inflation to Slip Further Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals, albeit reversing some of the upside surprises seen in January data.  The numbers may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for

April 07, 2025

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows caution, Consumer Survey more pessimistic
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 2:57 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey is weaker, though probably not by enough to shock the Bank of Canada. The survey was conducted in February, when tariffs were a worry but not yet a reality. 

April 04, 2025

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Argentina: Reserves Depleting, New Devaluation?
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 6:28 PM UTC

Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 4:59 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 1:22 PM UTC

Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.

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U.S. March Employment - A healthy picture, but can it persist?
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 1:01 PM UTC

March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera

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Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet

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UK GDP Preview (Apr 11): Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Freemium Article

April 4, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

UK GDP Preview: Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive.  This is all the more likely given the 0.1% m/m ‘recovery’ w

April 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont

U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:24 PM UTC

March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.

U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 1:13 PM UTC

Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.

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Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January and February, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 12:01 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

April 02, 2025

Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.

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Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter
Freemium Article

April 2, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - Regional surveys suggest weakness
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to a 7-month low of 52.0 from 53.5, contrasting a stronger S and P Services PMI.  

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022. 

U.S. March ADP Employment - Return to trend after a weaker February
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll

April 01, 2025

U.S. February Job Openings, March ISM Manufacturing - Worrying detail, though not yet a clear trend
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.

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Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down.