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February 18, 2025

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UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks.  Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu

RBA Review: It has begun
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 4:47 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th cut rates on by 25bps to 4.1% and suggest data dependency going forward

February 17, 2025

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April

February 14, 2025

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Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC

Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services

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Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Industrial Production - Aircraft and utilities up, mining and autos slip, elsewhere not much change
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he

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U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c

February 13, 2025

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

U.S. January PPI - Trend remains firm, Initial Claims fall
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food

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Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality.  Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration

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UK GDP Review: Surprise Resilience
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 7:58 AM UTC

GDP data for the end of 2024 very much surprised on the upside albeit still failing to convey an impression of UK’s economy displaying solidity, if not strength.  Admittedly GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in December, the largest such gain in 11 months (Figure 1) and enough to have allowed Q4 see growth of

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India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.

February 12, 2025

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip. 

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U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be

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UK CPI Preview (Feb 19): Inflation Drop to Target Deferred
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC

After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking.  This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price

Brazil CPI Review: Mixed Signs from January Inflation
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC

Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.

February 11, 2025

Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend. 

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Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a

U.S. January NFIB survey corrects after sharp post-election bounce
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

January’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism to at 102.8 from 105.1 has corrected from its post-election bounce. 

February 10, 2025

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Mexico CPI Review: Inflation Falls as Demand Eases
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom

Preview: Due 26 February - U.S. January New Home Sales - A hit from weather
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 4:11 PM UTC

We expect a January new home sales level of 630k, which would be a steep 9.7% decline if December’s 3.6% increase to 698k is unrevised, though we would see any January weakness as likely to be temporary and due to bad weather. October, hit by hurricanes, saw an even steeper 15.3% fall. 

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 3:16 PM UTC

We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9. 

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.

February 08, 2025

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Banxico Review: 50 bps Cut as Expected
Freemium Article

February 8, 2025 9:39 PM UTC

Banxico cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, with a cautious stance and a split vote. Inflation has fallen but remains above target, expected to converge to 3.0% by Q3 2026. Global risks, including Trump’s tariff threats, add uncertainty. Despite economic weakness, some monetary tightening may s

February 07, 2025

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:48 PM UTC

We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.

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Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

U.S. February Michigan CSI - Consumers look concerned about tariffs
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

February’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 68.7 from 71.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July, with the dip appearing to come from a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations, to 4.3% from 3.3%, which is the highest since November 2023.

Canada January Employment - Rate cuts helping, but tariff risk persists
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl

U.S. January Employment with historical revisions - Charts and table
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

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U.S. January Employment - Trend still strong despite a weather-restrained January
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather. A dip in the workweek is also probably weather-induced and may be behind an above trend 0.5% rise in earnings per hour. Unemployment slipped to 4.0% fro

February 06, 2025

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Preview: Due February 7 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A slower month given bad weather
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 2:47 PM UTC

We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch

U.S. Initial Claims correct higher but still low, Few scares in Q4 Productivity and Costs report
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

Initial claims at 219k have corrected higher from last week’s 208k which was the lowest since February 2024 but remain consistent with a healthy labor market.  Continued claims with a 36k rise to 1.886k have also corrected higher following a preceding 50k decline. 

February 05, 2025

U.S. January ISM Services - Dip may be weather-related
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 3:15 PM UTC

January’s ISM services index at 52.8 from 54.0 is weaker than market expectations though consistent with the S and P services PMI released earlier. It is possible bad weather, with very cold weather in much of the country probably more significant than the localized Los Angeles fires, restrained t

December sees large U.S. trade deficit while Canada's balance moves into surplus
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

December’s US trade deficit of $98.4bn from $78.9bn in November is even wider than expected and the widest since March 2022. Exports fell by 2.6% after a 2.7% November increase while imports rose by 3.5% for a second straight month.

U.S. January ADP Employment - Consumer facing industries lead healthy gain
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

ADP’s January estimate for private sector employment growth of 183k is on the firm side of expectations and in line with trend given positive recent back month revisions. We still see risk of a below trend non-farm payroll in January due to bad weather, which ADP data tends to be less sensitive to

February 04, 2025

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 5:20 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

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UK GDP Preview (Feb 13): Weakness Continues, if not Deepens?
Freemium Article

February 4, 2025 4:26 PM UTC

Recent data add to already-growing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year.  And those questions may be accentuated by the looming December GDP data where we see a flat m/m reading but, combined w

U.S. December JOLTS report sees Job Openings correct lower
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

December’s JOLTS report shows a steep 516k decline in job openings, which should be seen as corrective from two strong months with the 3-month average still positive. 

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ISM Services - Bad weather may deliver a hit
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

We expect January’s ISM services index to slip to 52.5 from 54.0 in December, returning the index to November’s level. Unusually cold weather in much of the country and to a lesser extent the Los Angeles fires provide downside risk.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ADP Employment - Less sensitive to bad weather than non-farm payrolls
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is significantly above our 95k increase for January’s private sector non-farm payroll, which is likely to be more sensitive to bad weather than the ADP report. We expect overall non-farm payrolls, inc

February 03, 2025

U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Move above neutral will be tested by a trade war
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

January’s ISM manufacturing index at 50.9 from 49.2 has moved above neutral for the first time since late 2022, giving a positive picture of manufacturing ahead of the commencing trade war. The trade war is likely to be negative for manufacturing as supply chains are damaged.

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EZ HICP Review: Headline Rises Amid Still Friendly Core Messages?
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 10:38 AM UTC

There were mixed messages in the higher-than-expected January flash HICP numbers.  For a third successive month, the headline but this time by ‘only’ 0.1ppt, to a six-month high of 2.5%, but where the core (again) stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly relatively stable services inflat

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Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

January 31, 2025

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Mexico GDP Review: 0.6% Contraction in Q4 and Recession Risks
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC

Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip. 

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Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a