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October 28, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim
October 28, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but now largely dissipated. The Bank has two policy meeting left this year – Nov 7 and Dec 19- but has offered no encouragement
October 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.
October 24, 2024 3:55 PM UTC
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
October 24, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
September new home sales with a 4.1% rise to 738k are on the firm side of expectations. The series, while volatile, has been trending higher since falling to a 12-month low of 611k in November 2023.
October 24, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
We expect September durable orders to increase by 0.6% but with a 0.2% decline ex transport, the latter a correction from an above trend 0.5% rise in August, keeping underlying trend close to flat.
October 24, 2024 10:13 AM UTC
It is clear that PMI data are a key component of the data analysis of the ECB. We are somewhat sceptical of the data, at least in its ability to track GDP growth coincidently and accurately. But the data does offer a wide-ranging insight into private sector economic momentum. With this in mind t
October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account
October 23, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
A September new home sales level of 705k, which would be a 1.5% decline if August’s 4.7% decline to 716k is unrevised, a decline that followed a strong 10.3% rise in July to 751k, the highest level since February 2022.
October 23, 2024 12:26 PM UTC
We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal increase in manufacturing, to a still weak 47.5 from 47.3, and a marginal dip in services to a still healthy 55.0 from 55.2.
October 23, 2024 9:20 AM UTC
Lower energy costs were the main factor behind the sharp fall in HICP inflation, which fell from 2.2% y/y in August to 1.7%, the latter revised down a notch from the flash estimate. This is the first sub-target reading since June 2021. Services inflation also edged lower, this allowing the core ra
October 21, 2024 3:47 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which while matching our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls is stronger than our 40k forecast for the more directly comparable private sector non-farm payroll. We expect ADP data to prove less sensitive to
October 21, 2024 1:59 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted this month to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below the ECB target and well below expectat
October 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, slower than Q2’s 3.0% but still maintaining solid momentum. Q3’s gain will be led by consumer spending, with a slowing in core PCE prices to an on-target 2.0% annualized after gains of 2.8% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q1.
October 17, 2024 6:28 PM UTC
September personal income and spending data will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q3 totals due with the GDP release the day before. Ahead of the GDP release we look for a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, and a moderate 0.3% rise in personal income which we expect will
October 17, 2024 2:48 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
October 17, 2024 1:42 PM UTC
September industrial production was a little weaker than expected with a 0.3% decline, with manufacturing down by 0.4%, but the Fed stated that a strike at Boeing which started in mid-September took 0.3% off the total, and the impact of two Hurricanes took off an additional 0.3%, meaning a modestly
October 17, 2024 1:04 PM UTC
September retail sales show the consumer sustaining solid momentum through Q3 with a stronger than expected rise of 0.4% overall, 0.5% ex autos and impressive gains of 0.7% both ex autos and gasoline and in the control group that contributes to GDP. Initial claims in the survey week for October’s
October 16, 2024 5:58 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim
October 16, 2024 6:49 AM UTC
Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021. This drop was greater than expected and
October 15, 2024 6:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s October 23 decision looks a close call between a fourth straight 25bps easing to 4.0%, which is our expectation, or a 50bps move to 3.75%. The BoC can feel increasingly confident of core inflation returning to the 2.0% target in 2025, though tentative signs of growth regaini
October 14, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The
October 11, 2024 4:57 PM UTC
We expect September durable orders to increase by 0.6% but with a 0.2% decline ex transport, the latter a correction from an above trend 0.5% rise in August, keeping underlying trend close to flat.
October 11, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey shows activity looking less weak and inflation expectations less strong, which will be seen as good news. The report, particularly after today’s strong September employment report, suggests a 25bps easing is more likely than a 50bps move when the B
October 11, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
October’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 68.9 is down from September’s 70.1 but still above August’s 67.9. Inflation expectations nudged up to 2.9% from 2.7% on a one year view but returned to trend at 3.0% on the 5-1- year view after September was marginally above trend at 3.0%.
October 11, 2024 1:15 PM UTC
Following four straight fairly unimpressive reports, Canadian employment gained momentum in August with a stronger than expected 46.7k increase in employment that looks stronger still in its details, and a dip in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.6%. The data will make pleasant reading to the Bank of Cana
October 11, 2024 12:50 PM UTC
Contrasting the CPI, September’s PPI has come in on the low side of expectations at unchanged, with the ex food and energy pace slowing to 0.2% from 0.3% and ex food energy and trade below trend at 0.1%, with August revised down to 0.2% from 0.3%.
October 11, 2024 6:41 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only two of
October 10, 2024 3:31 PM UTC
While the September CPI with a gain of 0.2% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy, looked very similar to August’s on the headlines, we saw the details as different, with the modest September upside surprise being more broadly based than that of August. This view is backed by a stronger Cleveland Fed M
October 10, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
October 10, 2024 1:19 PM UTC
September CPI is on the high side of expectations, up 0.2% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.31% respectively. While the core rate looks similar to August’s, the details are different with strength not led by housing this time. A spike in initial
October 9, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
In September, Brazil's CPI rose by 0.44%, aligning with market expectations and increasing the year-over-year rate to 4.4%. The surge was mainly driven by rising electricity prices, influenced by droughts impacting hydroelectric generation. While other categories behaved predictably, cost-push infla
October 8, 2024 3:36 PM UTC
A September new home sales level of 705k, which would be a 1.5% decline if August’s 4.7% decline to 716k is unrevised, a decline that followed a strong 10.3% rise in July to 751k, the highest level since February 2022.
October 8, 2024 12:51 PM UTC
August’s US trade deficit of $70.4bn is the narrowest since March in a correction from July’s $78.7bn which was the widest since June 2022. The average in Q3 to date is similar to the Q2 average of $74.4bn, suggesting net exports will not be a major factor in Q3 GDP.