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December 03, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC
Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024.
December 02, 2024
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months
December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.
Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened
December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin
November 29, 2024
Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3
November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se
EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
November 29, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the November flash HICP. Matching consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.3 ppt to 2.3%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main factor behind the rise back
November 28, 2024
Preview: Due November 29 - Canada Q3/September GDP - A subdued quarter with a stronger finish
November 28, 2024 2:38 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe
German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?
November 28, 2024 1:40 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, albeit with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the preliminary November estimate, lower than widely expected, but where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%. This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation (Figure 1)
November 27, 2024
U.S. October Personal Income stronger, Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected
November 27, 2024 3:15 PM UTC
October PCE prices at 0.2% overall, 0.3% core, with yr/yr rates slightly firmer at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively are as expected and predicted by Fed’s Powell on November 14. The core rate at 0.27% before rounding is not quite as strong as the core CPI. The pace is a little higher than desirable, but
U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade - No major surprises
November 27, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest round of data. Initial claims remain low but continued claims remain high, Q3 GDP was unrevised at 2.8%. October durable goods maintain a marginally positive trend, up 0.2% overall and 0.1% ex transport. October’s advance goods trade deficit corrected low
November 26, 2024
Preview: Due December 4 - U.S. November ADP Employment - October suggested underlying strength
November 26, 2024 3:44 PM UTC
We expect a 180k increase in November’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would underperform our 225k estimate for private sector payrolls (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 260k). ADP data was strong at 233k in October, sharply outperforming a 28k decline in private sec
Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
November 26, 2024 3:36 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
U.S. November Consumer Confidence sees a limited response to the election, October new home sales hit by weather
November 26, 2024 3:21 PM UTC
November consumer confidence is slightly stronger at 111.7 from 109.6 but has not shown a strong reaction to the election, presumably because similar numbers were pleased and disappointed with the result. New home sales have shown a sharp unexpected fall in October, by 17.3% to 610k, but appears to
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Personal Income and Spending - A second straight 0.3% from Core PCE Prices
November 26, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Durable Goods Orders - Slightly stronger despite Boeing strike
November 26, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect October durable orders to increase by 1.0% overall following two straight modest declines with a 0.4% increase ex transport. This would be a third straight rise, if slightly slower than in the preceding two months.
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower but trend is widening
November 26, 2024 1:44 PM UTC
We expect an advance October goods trade deficit of $104.5bn, down from $108.7bn in September but above the Q3 average of $102.0bn. Trend in the deficit is for widening and a now settled strike at Boeing will cause weakness in October aircraft exports.
November 25, 2024
Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. October New Home Sales - To reach highest level since February 2022
November 25, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect an October new home sales level of 750k, which would be a 1.6% increase if September’s 4.1% increase to 738k is unrevised. This would maintain an improving trend and take the level to the highest since February 2022.
November 21, 2024
EZ HICP Preview (Nov 29): Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
November 21, 2024 9:59 AM UTC
Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1). The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read
November 20, 2024
German Data Preview (Nov 28): Services Inflation Persists?
November 20, 2024 3:58 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below th
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
November 20, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
We expect a 2.3% increase in October existing home sales to 3.93m, a moderate rise after declines of 1.0% in September and 2.0% in August, but sufficient to move yr/yr data above zero at 2.1% for the first time since July 2021.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2
November 18, 2024
Preview: Due November 19 - Canada October CPI - A correction higher overall but with renewed slippage in the core rates
November 18, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
We expect October Canadian CPI to correct higher to 1.8% yr/yr after falling to 1.6% in September from 2.0% in August. This will leave overall CPI below the 2.0% Bank of Canada target. While we expect overall CPI to correct higher we expect the BoC’s core rates to show renewed downward progress af
Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. October Housing Starts and Permits - Little change seen with restraint from weather
November 18, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst. After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March. These numbers ar
November 15, 2024
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Personal Income and Spending - A second straight 0.3% from Core PCE Prices
November 15, 2024 5:09 PM UTC
We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.
U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes
November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC
October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.
U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend solid but may start to lose momentum
November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.
UK GDP Review: Momentum Dissipated?
November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC
The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six
November 14, 2024
Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend still solid
November 14, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.
U.S. October PPI - No surprises but a little too high, Initial Claims lower in early November
November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC
October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb
November 13, 2024
Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October
November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and
Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%
November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government
Preview: Due November 14 - U.S. October PPI - Subdued on the month but yr/yr rates edging higher
November 13, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.
U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report
November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F
India CPI Review: CPI Hits New Heights
November 13, 2024 12:05 PM UTC
Bottom line: The latest CPI figure of 6.2% yr/yr underscores significant inflationary pressures within the Indian economy, primarily driven by food prices but also influenced by housing costs. With inflation now at a 14-month high, the RBI's response will be another rate hold in December. Earliest r
UK CPI Preview (Nov 20): Inflation Back Above Target But Core Pressures Lower
November 13, 2024 11:51 AM UTC
Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021. This drop was greater than expected and
November 12, 2024
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower but trend is widening
November 12, 2024 6:28 PM UTC
We expect an advance October goods trade deficit of $104.5bn, down from $108.7bn in September but above the Q3 average of $102.0bn. Trend in the deficit is for widening and a now settled strike at Boeing will cause weakness in October aircraft exports.
Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Durable Goods Orders - Slightly stronger despite Boeing strike
November 12, 2024 5:17 PM UTC
We expect October durable orders to increase by 1.0% overall following two straight modest declines with a 0.4% increase ex transport. This would be a third straight rise, if slightly slower than in the preceding two months.
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September
November 12, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft
UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?
November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co
November 11, 2024
Brazil CPI Review: Food and Energy Drive Inflation Up
November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC
Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain
India CPI Preview: Food prices to weigh on headline CPI
November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon
November 08, 2024
U.S. November Michigan CSI - Rise reflects pre-election sentiment
November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may