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November 14, 2025
Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target
November 14, 2025 7:15 PM UTC
We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.
Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025
November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg
Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October
November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue
November 13, 2025
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best
November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking. Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar
November 11, 2025
U.S. October NFIB survey - Weaker but far from weak
November 11, 2025 1:33 PM UTC
October’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.2 from 98.8 has seen a second straight decline, possibly influenced by the government shutdown which looks close to being resolved. The index is still well above pre-election levels and above April’s 95.8 when tariff alarm was at its peak.
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC
Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1). Regardless, the latest l
November 10, 2025
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy
November 10, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from September improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Responding to lower mortgage rates
November 10, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
We expect October existing home sales to increase by 1.0% to 4.10m, extending a 1.5% rise in September to reach the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?
November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak. Indeed, we see
November 07, 2025
India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%
November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC
We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving
U.S. November Preliminary Michigan CSI - Weak, possibly on shutdown or labor market worries
November 7, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.3 has seen a significant dip from 53.6 in October to reach its lowest level since June 2022. Current conditions led the slowing, perhaps due to the government shutdown or weakening in the labor market. Inflation expectations are mixed but within the recent
Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy
November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme
November 06, 2025
Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target
November 6, 2025 8:13 PM UTC
We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility
November 6, 2025 3:04 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y
November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y
Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October
November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC
While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).
November 05, 2025
U.S. October ISM Services - Bounce led by new orders, prices remain firm
November 5, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM services index is not as strong as the S and P Services PMI which was revised to a still firm 54.8 from 55.2, though at 52.4 is still the strongest since February and up from a neutral 50.0 in September.
U.S. October ADP Employment keeps trend marginally positive, if subdued
November 5, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
ADP’s October estimate of employment is slightly stronger than expected with a 42k increase, more than fully reversing September’s 29k decline (revised from -32k) to suggest that underlying trend in employment growth is still marginally positive, if unimpressive.
November 04, 2025
Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen
November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC
October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a
Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline
November 4, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. Weekly data released by ADP is suggesting a modest rise. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs.
November 03, 2025
U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Still slightly negative, prices paid slowing
November 3, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 from 49.1 is weaker than S and P manufacturing PMI and the bulk of the reginal surveys had implied, and keeps the index is a tight range marginally short of neutral. Some of the tariff impact is fading, with prices paid and inventories slowing.
UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless
November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC
Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone. As a result, we see September G