Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments

October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth. 

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August

October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju

Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Slightly firmer but a subdued picture

October 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 49.1 is up from August’s 48.7 and marginally beats 49.0 readings in June and March to record its highest reading since February. However there remains little direction to underlying trend.

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

U.S. September ADP Employment declines, initial claims and payroll releases face delay

October 1, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

ADP’s September estimate of employment is weaker than expected with a 32k decline, extending a recent slowing in trend. Adding to the negative message, August was revised to a 3k decline from a 54k rise. Given the government shutdown starting today this may be the last look at the labor market we

EZ HICP Review: Headline Inflation Moves Higher as Services Ticks Up From Cycle-low

October 1, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

A second successive upside surprise is unlikely to make inflation any more of an issue for the ECB at present.  Instead, moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter should remain the order of the day, this possibly a result of a still somewhat unresponsive t

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down

September 30, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.

German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?

September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff

RBA Review: Data Dependency Continues

September 30, 2025 8:17 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on September 30th keep rates at 3.6% and continue to point toward data dependency

U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices maintaining trend, still above target

September 26, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

August personal income at 0.4% and spending at 0.6% are both a little stronger than expected while price indices are in line, 0.3% for overall PCE and 0.2% for the core rate, with the latter 0.227% before rounding. Each price index underperformed the August CPI counterpart by 0.1% (August PPI was so

U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade all stronger than expected

September 25, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

The latest set of US data is clearly on the strong side of expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up significantly to 3.8% from 3.3%, August’s advance trade deficit falling to $85.5bn from $102.8bn, August durable goods orders rising by 2.9% with a 0.4% increase ex transport, and initial claims falling

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down

September 24, 2025 5:19 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.