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January 22, 2026
FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited
January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti
U.S. Personal Income underperforming Spending, Core PCE Prices maintaining trend
January 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The personal income and spending report for both October and November has been released and shows healthy spending, up by 0.5% in each month outperforming income which rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November. PCE prices, both overall and core, rise by 0.2% in each month, modest, but stronger th
U.S. Initial Claims remain low in payroll survey week, GDP revised higher on inventories
January 22, 2026 2:12 PM UTC
Initial claims remain low in the survey week for January’s non-farm payroll, rising by only 1k to a lower than expected 200k. The Q3 GDP revision to 4.4% from 4.3% is marginal, but is even stronger than an already strong pace.
January 21, 2026
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still
January 21, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December
January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe
January 20, 2026
Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. December PPI - Rebound in trade to bring an above trend month
January 20, 2026 6:07 PM UTC
Despite signs in the CPI that inflationary pressure has slowed in Q4, we expect December PPI to show above trend gains of 0.4% both overall and ex food and energy. Ex food energy and trade however we expect a moderate gain of 0.2%, which would match November’s outcome in that series.
Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. November Trade Balance - Narrower October deficit looks unsustainable
January 20, 2026 5:03 PM UTC
We expect a November trade deficit of $47.0bn, up from October’s $29.35bn which was the lowest since June 2009 and which looks unsustainably low, but still slightly narrower than September’s $48.14bn, which was itself the narrowest since March 2020.
Bank of Canada Preview for January 28: Rate level still appropriate but uncertainty high
January 20, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% on January 28 and reiterate that rates are at about the right level if the economy evolves as expected, while adding that uncertainty remains elevated. We expect that the next BoC move will be a modest tightening, but this will
January 19, 2026
Canada - BoC Q4 Business Outlook Survey - Mostly stronger
January 19, 2026 4:03 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q4 business outlook survey is mostly improved with the business outlook indicator of -1.78 from -2.27 the strongest since Q4 2024 while the index on future sales bounced to a positive 13 from -2, returning to the pre-tariff level seen in Q1 2025. The data, while improved, is n
Preview: Due January 30 - Canada November GDP - Partial reversal of October's dip
January 19, 2026 3:36 PM UTC
We expect November Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s report, when a 0.3% decline was reported. We expect the preliminary estimate for December will also show a modest increase.
January 16, 2026
Russia’s Inflation Decelerated Sharply in December but Risks Remain
January 16, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% y/y in November, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in December and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central
Preview: Due January 26 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend positive
January 16, 2026 4:23 PM UTC
We expect November durable goods orders to increase by 4.5%, led by a strong rise in aircraft as implied by Boeing data, though we expect ex transport orders to show a positive trend persisting with a rise of 0.6%.
U.S. January NAHB Homebuilders Index - Revival losing momentum
January 16, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
January’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 from 39 has seen a correction after three straight gains. The gains in Q4 appear to have been supported by Fed easing. If the Fed pauses in Q1, the housing sector revival may lose momentum too.
U.S. Decmember Industrial Production - Business equipment leading, autos weak
January 16, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
December industrial production is stronger than expected with a 0.4% increase with November revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%, though October was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1%. Manufacturing rose by 0.2%, following an upwardly revised 0.3% in November, but has still not fully erased a downwardly revis
Preview: Due January 19 - Canada December CPI - Slower even with upward tax distortion
January 16, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect December’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr (2.11% before rounding) from 2.2% in both October and November, with each of the three Bank of Canada core rates slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, leaving the average core rate at its slowest pace since March.
January 15, 2026
South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December
January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys stronger at the start of 2026
January 15, 2026 2:09 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests a stronger start to 2026, with initial jobless claims very low at 198k from 207k in a week not including a holiday and is thus less prone to a surprise, and also positive manufacturing surveys from the Empire State at 7.7 and the Philly Fed at 12.6, both contrasting negat
January 14, 2026
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still
January 14, 2026 8:12 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 14, 2026 5:51 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
U.S. Retail Sales and PPI over October and November not far from expectations
January 14, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
November retail sales with a rise of 0.6% are marginally stronger than expected but the data is close to expectations net of modest negative back month revisions. PPI has been released for both October and November, also net in line with expectations, with October on the firm side in the core rate f