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February 27, 2025
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November.
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go
February 26, 2025
U.S. January New Home Sales - Dip on weather, December revised higher
February 26, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
January new home sales at 657k are a little lower than expected though the surprise is offset by an upward revision to December to 734k from 698k, and January data probably saw some restraint for weather. The near-term outlook is probably negative given limited hopes for Fed easing, but fluid, with
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
February 26, 2025 2:03 PM UTC
We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.
South Africa's Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.2% in January
February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global
February 25, 2025
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ISM Services - Not as weak as S&P Services PMI
February 25, 2025 8:04 PM UTC
We expect February’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from 52.8 in January, moving the index to its lowest since August 2024 but showing more resilience than the S and P services PMI which slipped below the neutral 50 level.
Preview: Due March 3 - U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - Staying positive
February 25, 2025 5:29 PM UTC
We expect a February 1SM manufacturing index of 50.5. slightly below January’s 50.9, but sustaining January’s move above the neutral 50 which was the first since October 2022 (after March 2024 was revised down to 49.8 from 50.3 with January’s annual revisions),
U.S. February Consumer Confidence - Some are very pessimistic, particularly on inflation
February 25, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
February consumer confidence at 98.3 from 105.3 is the weakest since June and near the bottom of the recent range. The fall was led by expectations, with a substantial proportion of the population clearly concerned over the outlook under Trump, with a rise in inflation expectations particularly nota
Preview: Due 26 February - U.S. January New Home Sales - A hit from weather
February 25, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
We expect a January new home sales level of 630k, which would be a steep 9.7% decline if December’s 3.6% increase to 698k is unrevised, though we would see any January weakness as likely to largely due to bad weather. October, hit by hurricanes, saw an even steeper 15.3% fall.
February 24, 2025
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): Headline Back Down With Friendlier Core Messages?
February 24, 2025 3:34 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers may deliver better news and broadly so (Figure 1) and thus contrast with the mixed messages in the higher-than-expected January flash HICP numbers. Indeed, for a third successive month in January, the headline rose but by ‘only’ 0.1ppt, to a six-month high of 2.
February 21, 2025
U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli
U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
February 20, 2025
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
February 20, 2025 2:50 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
February 20, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9.
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
February 20, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m. February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.
February 19, 2025
U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Stable underlying picture but with downside risk
February 19, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
January housing starts have seen a steep 9.8% decline to 1366k but the outcome is only modestly below expectations and may be weather-related. Permits are virtually unchanged, up by 0.1% to 1483k, suggesting a stable underlying picture, but there may be downside risks going forward.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
February 18, 2025
Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
February 18, 2025 6:52 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
February 18, 2025 3:45 PM UTC
We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
February 18, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.
UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC
There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks. Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu
February 17, 2025
Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t
Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
February 14, 2025
Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
U.S. January Industrial Production - Aircraft and utilities up, mining and autos slip, elsewhere not much change
February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he
U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c
February 13, 2025
Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
U.S. January PPI - Trend remains firm, Initial Claims fall
February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food
Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC
European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality. Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration
UK GDP Review: Surprise Resilience
February 13, 2025 7:58 AM UTC
GDP data for the end of 2024 very much surprised on the upside albeit still failing to convey an impression of UK’s economy displaying solidity, if not strength. Admittedly GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in December, the largest such gain in 11 months (Figure 1) and enough to have allowed Q4 see growth of
India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC
India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.
February 12, 2025
Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip.
U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be
UK CPI Preview (Feb 19): Inflation Drop to Target Deferred
February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC
After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking. This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price
Brazil CPI Review: Mixed Signs from January Inflation
February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC
Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.