UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!

November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC

To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst.  After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March.  These numbers ar

Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Personal Income and Spending - A second straight 0.3% from Core PCE Prices

November 15, 2024 5:09 PM UTC

We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.

U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend solid but may start to lose momentum

November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.

UK GDP Review: Momentum Dissipated?

November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six

Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend still solid

November 14, 2024 2:47 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.

U.S. October PPI - No surprises but a little too high, Initial Claims lower in early November

November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government

Preview: Due November 14 - U.S. October PPI - Subdued on the month but yr/yr rates edging higher

November 13, 2024 3:07 PM UTC

We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.

U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report

November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F

India CPI Review: CPI Hits New Heights

November 13, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

Bottom line: The latest CPI figure of 6.2% yr/yr underscores significant inflationary pressures within the Indian economy, primarily driven by food prices but also influenced by housing costs. With inflation now at a 14-month high, the RBI's response will be another rate hold in December. Earliest r

UK CPI Preview (Nov 20): Inflation Back Above Target But Core Pressures Lower

November 13, 2024 11:51 AM UTC

Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021.  This drop was greater than expected and

Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

November 12, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft

UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?

November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co

Brazil CPI Review: Food and Energy Drive Inflation Up

November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC

Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain

India CPI Preview: Food prices to weigh on headline CPI

November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y  due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon

U.S. November Michigan CSI - Rise reflects pre-election sentiment

November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may

Mexico CPI Review: Agricultural Goods Drive Inflation Up

November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex

Canada October Employment - Details mostly positive, suggesting economy regaining momentum

November 8, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

While Canada’s 14.5k October rise in employment was not very impressive on the headline, the details are mostly positive and support a view that the Canadian economy is starting to regain momentum now that the Bank of Canada is easing monetary policy.

UK GDP Preview (Nov 15): Momentum Slowing?

November 8, 2024 8:02 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may have been something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only

U.S. Initial Claims remain low but Continued Claims higher, Q3 Productivity and Costs reflect GDP revisions

November 7, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims with a rise to 221k from 218k (revised from 216k) are in line with expectations and still low. However a rise in continued claims to 1.892m from 1.853m is disappointing and suggest that job losses from recent hurricanes may be persisting. Q3 non-farm productivity with a 2.2% in

Norges Bank Review: A Tweak in Policy Guidance

November 7, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated.  However, after the widely expected stable policy decision today, the possibility that a cut may

Preview: Due November 22 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slightly weaker, Services still strong

November 6, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

We expect November’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage in manufacturing to a still weak 48.0 from 48.5 but with services unchanged at a healthy 55.0. 

U.S. Election – Initial Thoughts

November 6, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

A Trump victory is now widely expected with results so far and has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher.  Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere -- House race is tigh

U.S. October ISM Services - Healthy, if probably a little overstated

November 5, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

October’s ISM services index at 56.0 from 54.9 is the strongest since August 2022 and while probably a little overstated, particularly a surge in the deliveries index, suggests a healthy underlying economic picture entering Q4.

Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend still solid

November 5, 2024 2:55 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.

US September trade balance corrects August improvement, Canada's balance little changed in Q3

November 5, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

September’s US trade deficit of $84.4bn is the widest since April 2022, rebounding from a 5-month low deficit of $70.8bn in August to keep a deteriorating trend intact. The average of August and September is slightly lower than July’s $78.9bn but the deficit increased in Q3.

U.S. Debt Divergence

November 5, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

Household debt/GDP has fallen noticeably since the GFC to largely counterbalance the rise in government debt/GDP.  However, a surge in household borrowing for consumption with Fed easing is unlikely, as the overall resilience on consumption hides buoyance among wealthy households and a struggle/low

RBA Review: Waiting to ease

November 5, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 5th kept rates on hold 

Preview: Due November 14 - U.S. October PPI - Subdued on the month but yr/yr rates edging higher

November 4, 2024 8:09 PM UTC

We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.

Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

November 4, 2024 2:26 PM UTC

We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft

Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. October Housing Starts and Permits - Little change seen with restraint from weather

November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC

We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed. 

FOMC Preview for November 7: A 25bps Easing, Outlook Unclear

November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2

U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Weakest since July 2023, but not a sharp slide

November 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

October’s ISM manufacturing index at 46.5 from 47.2 is the weakest since July 2023 if only a modest deterioration. We doubt the Boeing strike had a major impact on this report which is less sensitive to issues in one large company than are aggregate measures of output.