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April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal
April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix
April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.
April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC
March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.
April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%
April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall
April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC
Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400
April 15, 2025 5:38 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.
April 15, 2025 2:06 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.
April 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
April’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.1 was weak, but less so than February’s -20.0. However looking at the details weakness in 6-month expectations and strength in prices shows tariffs are doing some damage.
April 15, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
Policy-making is fraught with difficult decision making at the best of times. But at present in the UK, such decisions are made all the more problematic given inconsistencies, if not conflicts, in the data backdrop, thereby making any reading of the economy all the more subjective. Is employment
April 14, 2025 3:10 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the 1-year inflation view at 3.58% from 3.13%, reaching its highest since September 2023. However continued with the 3 and 5 year views still well anchored the Fed should feel relief at this data.
April 14, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.
April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
April 11, 2025 5:53 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, on the low side of recent trend. This would see yr/yr growth slow to 3.5%, the slowest since Q2 2021, from 3.8%.
April 11, 2025 4:46 PM UTC
We expect April’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in both manufacturing, to 48.5 from 50.2, as the cost of supplies is lifted by tariffs, and services, to 51.0 from 54.4, as consumer sentiment is undermined. Impact is uncertain but risk is on the downside, with sharp declines not to be ruled out.
April 11, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.
April 11, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
March CPI in Brazil rose 0.6%, above expectations, pushing the annual rate to 5.5%. Broad-based price increases, especially in food, signal persistent inflation pressures. Core inflation, notably in services, is well above the BCB’s target, and external volatility adds risk. With activity and cred
April 11, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
March PPI, like the CPI and February’s PPI, is surprisingly subdued at -0.4% overall, -0.1% ex food and energy with a modest 0.1% increase ex food, energy and trade. There is some sign of stronger inflation in core goods, but this outweighed by easing pressures in services, food and energy.
April 11, 2025 6:40 AM UTC
UK data can be erratic, but the hugely unexpected surge in February GDP numbers (Figure 1) looks hard to fathom. A 0.5% m/m jump suggests the economy grew by an annualized 6%-plus in the month. This is hard to square against the message from surveys and other data such as that for the labor mark
April 10, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
Mexico’s March CPI rose 0.31%, matching expectations but below the historical average. Annual inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by core components like food and services. Non-core inflation fell due to lower energy prices. Food saw strong gains, while transport costs declined. The narrowing gap
April 10, 2025 1:29 PM UTC
We expect March existing home sales to fall by 6.1% to 4.0m, which would be the weakest level since September 2024. This would follow a 4.2% February increase that corrected a 4.7% January decline. February data was significantly above trend in both 2023 and 2024.
April 10, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
We expect March PPI to increase by a moderate 0.2% overall, restrained by dips in food and energy, but we expect a 0.4% bounce ex food and energy after a 0.1% dip in February. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%.
April 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
March CPI comes as a pleasant surprise, a 0.1% decline overall led by an expected dip in gasoline, but the 0.1% rise ex food and energy is well below consensus and recent trend and suggests the inflationary pressures entering the trade war are lower than was previously thought. Initial claims, up 4k
April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC
Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase
April 9, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
We expect a March new home sales level of 660k, which would be a 2.4% decline after a 1.8% February increase if February’s 676k outcome is unrevised. While other housing sector data has been quite volatile new home sales have seen little direction. Risk is on the downside, modestly for this month
April 9, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down. Tariffs will hit the CPI with force
April 8, 2025 6:44 PM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has resumed raising the policy rate due to persistent inflation concerns, despite expectations of credit deceleration. In contrast, credit has accelerated in recent months, indicating that the credit channel through monetary policy may be compromised, increasing disi
April 8, 2025 4:42 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.5% overall led by a strong rise in aircraft but ex transport we expect a 0.2% decline to correct a 0.7% increase in February.
April 8, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 16 and we expect that strength in some recent data and high uncertainty will see rates left unchanged at 2.75%. There will be little forward guidance and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report may avoid providing its usual economic forecasts. We do not expect that
April 8, 2025 2:03 PM UTC
Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals, albeit reversing some of the upside surprises seen in January data. The numbers may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for
April 7, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey is weaker, though probably not by enough to shock the Bank of Canada. The survey was conducted in February, when tariffs were a worry but not yet a reality.
April 4, 2025 6:28 PM UTC
Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent
April 4, 2025 4:59 PM UTC
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.
April 4, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.
April 4, 2025 1:01 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera
April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet
April 4, 2025 9:13 AM UTC
UK GDP Preview: Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. This is all the more likely given the 0.1% m/m ‘recovery’ w
April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont
April 3, 2025 2:24 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.
April 3, 2025 1:13 PM UTC
Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.
April 3, 2025 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn
April 2, 2025 3:43 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.
April 2, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.
April 2, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022.
April 2, 2025 12:32 PM UTC
ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll
April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro
April 1, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.
April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down.