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October 24, 2025
Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline
October 24, 2025 7:25 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs.
FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance
October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations. The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on
U.S. October S&P PMIs - Positive signal more reliable for ISM manufacturing than ISM services
October 24, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly stronger, manufacturing marginally at 52.2 from 52.0 and services significantly at 55.2 from 54.2, The services index may be getting support from Fed easing and may not be a reliable guide to ISM services data.
U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target
October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun
October 23, 2025
Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Stronger manufacturing, slower services
October 23, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing seeing renewed upside with a rise to 52.5 from 52.0 but services to see a continued move off its recent high, falling to 53.5 from 54.2.
U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Starting to pick up as mortgage rates fall
October 23, 2025 2:13 PM UTC
September existing home sales with a 1.5% increase are spot on consensus expectations, and while the rise is modest the level is the highest since February, supported by recent declines in mortgage rates.
Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months
October 23, 2025 1:47 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2.
Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate
October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p
EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): No Halloween Horror from HICP Update
October 23, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Mainly due to unfavourable base effects, EZ inflation has edged up in the last few months, but we think that this is temporary and that a fresh fall, possible to below the 2% target may occur in the October flash numbers – with a formal forecast of a 0.3 ppt drop to 1.9% and the core falling almos
October 22, 2025
South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September
October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe
Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement
October 22, 2025 1:23 PM UTC
We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Oct 30): Resilience in the Dock?
October 22, 2025 9:11 AM UTC
As we highlighted repeatedly of late, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. But we think this may shift as the ECB
UK CPI Review: A Final and Lower Than Expected Peak?
October 22, 2025 7:05 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, and did so again in September in what was a lo
October 21, 2025
Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December
October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC
While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September
October 20, 2025
German HICP Preview (Oct 30): Headline Core To Edge Down as Disinflation Resumes?
October 20, 2025 4:36 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low. But we see most, if not all, of this rise being reversed in
Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey - Unlikely to shift BoC's views
October 20, 2025 3:52 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 business outlook survey is mixed though overall probably does not change the Bank of Canada’s view very much. The overall business outlook indicator of -2.28 is marginally improved from Q2’s -2.40 but leaves the index is a fairly narrow and marginally negative range. Th
Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
October 20, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target. The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the
Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Continue its Easing Cycle on October 23
October 20, 2025 7:00 AM UTC
Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 39%-39.5% during the MPC meeting scheduled for October 23 taking deceleration trend in inflation and relative TRY stability into account. We think CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adjustmen
October 16, 2025
U.S. Budget Deficit falls in Fiscal Year 2024-25 as tariff revenues pick up
October 16, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
Despite the government shutdown the US Treasury has released budget data for September, the final month of the fiscal year. A monthly surplus of $197.95bn, up from $64.685bn in September 2024, has seen the fiscal year deficit at $1.775 trillion fall below the previous fiscal year’s $1.817 trillion
Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Stronger manufacturing, slower services
October 16, 2025 5:21 PM UTC
We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing seeing renewed upside with a rise to 52.5 from 52.0 but services to see a continued move off its recent high, falling to 53.5 from 54.2.
U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Housing responding to lower mortgage rates
October 16, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
October’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 is up significantly from two months at 32 and the highest level since April, if still quite weak. This suggests recent falls in mortgage rates as the Fed resumes easing are having some impact on the housing market.
U.S. October Philly Fed - Details more encouraging than the weak headline
October 16, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
October’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -12.8 has fallen unexpectedly sharply from the surprisingly strong September reading of 22.3 and is the weakest since April when tariff worries were at their peak. Detail in the report is however more positive.
UK GDP Review: Moving Sideways – At Best
October 16, 2025 6:39 AM UTC
Although the revisions up to July GDP data now confirm a small m/m fall for that month), this was unwound in the August numbers with a 0.1% rise (Figure 1). This put the less volatile three-month rate at 0.3% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer zer
October 15, 2025
U.S. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity rebounds, prices stronger
October 15, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
October’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 10.7 has rebounded from a weak -8.7 in September though remains below August’s level of 11.7. The series is volatile and may not be a useful signal for other surveys. In September, when the Empire State index was weak, the Philly Fed manuf
October 14, 2025
UK CPI Preview (Oct 22): A Final Peak?
October 14, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th