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December 20, 2024
Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since April
December 20, 2024 2:17 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
U.S. November Core PCE Prices significantly softer than Core CPI
December 20, 2024 1:59 PM UTC
November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CPI, easing some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices. Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are als
December 19, 2024
U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Picking up, but for how long?
December 19, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
November existing home sales have shown a stronger than expected 4.8% rise to 4.15m, though pending home sales data had hinted at a strong ruse. A recent bounce in housing demand has been supported by Fed easing. If Fed easing is now starting to slow, further gains may be modest.
Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
December 19, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
U.S. Initial Claims move back down and GDP revised up, but Philly Fed weak
December 19, 2024 2:15 PM UTC
Initial claims at 220k in December’s non-farm payroll survey week have slipped back from last week’s 8-week high and suggest the labor market remains healthy. Q3 GDP has seen an unexpected and broad-based upward revision to 3.1% from 2.8% while the core PCE price index has nudged marginally high
Norges Bank Review: Caution Prevails
December 19, 2024 10:21 AM UTC
Surprising no-one, another (ie eighth successive) stable policy decision was forthcoming at this latest Board decision so that the policy rate at 4.5% has been in place for a year. The statement was more open about policy being eased but only after two more meetings, so that the first cut will com
December 18, 2024
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Seen matching payrolls, but recent bias to outperform
December 18, 2024 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in December’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which matches our estimate for private sector non-farm payroll growth, though we expect overall non-farm payrolls including government to increase by 175k.
Preview: Due January 10 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Closer to solid underlying trend
December 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str
Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest another rise
December 18, 2024 2:04 PM UTC
We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.
U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Singles positive, Multiples mixed
December 18, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
November housing starts are weaker than expected with a 1.8% decline to 1289k while permits are stronger than expected with a 6.1% rise to 1505k. The contrast between the two series comes largely because multiple starts were weak and multiple permits strong.
December 17, 2024
Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
December 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
December 17, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
December 17, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
U.S. November Industrial Production - No rebound in aircraft after Boeing strike
December 17, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
November industrial production has shown an unexpected 0.1% decline while manufacturing with a 0.2% increase has shown a significantly smaller rebound from recent hurricanes and a strike at Boeing that was expected. Excluding a bounce in autos, manufacturing actually fell by 0.1%, a third straight d
U.S. November Retail Sales - Mixed detail but trend still strong
December 17, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
November retail sales with a 0.7% increase are stronger than expected overall but the 0.2% gains in the core rates both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline are weaker than expected, though an as expected 0.4% rise in the control group suggests a healthy contribution to GDP. Revisions are marginally
December 16, 2024
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Rebounding from a weaker November
December 16, 2024 4:04 PM UTC
While the index is unlikely to be quite a strong as the 58.1 S and P services PMI for December, we expect a significant bounce in December’s ISM services index, to 55.5 from November’s weaker 52.1.
U.S. December S&P PMIs - Manufacturing corrects lower, Services very strong indeed
December 16, 2024 2:59 PM UTC
December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing correcting lower top 48.3 from 47.7 after two months of improvement but services at 58.5 from 56.1 very strong indeed and the highest since October 2021.
Preview: Due December 17 - Canada November CPI - Renewed slippage after correction higher in October
December 16, 2024 2:05 PM UTC
After an upward correction in October, we expect downward progress in Canadian CPI to resume in November, with the yr/yr rate slipping to 1.9% from 2.0%, while remaining above September’s 1.6%. We expect downward progress in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to resume too.
U.S. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey - November strength confirmed as erratic
December 16, 2024 1:45 PM UTC
December’s Empire State manufacturing index of 0.2 confirms the November reading of 31.2, that vastly outperformed other comparable manufacturing surveys, was erratic. The index is still showing some improvement in trend after nine straight negatives seen in the months ending in August 2024.
December 13, 2024
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S&P PMIs - Correcting November improvements
December 13, 2024 4:56 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022.
Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since April
December 13, 2024 3:03 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
Preview: Due December 27 - U.S. November Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit, exports and imports to rebound from October dips
December 13, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance November trade deficit of $108.9bn, up from $98.3bn in October and moving above September’s $106.2bn to bring the widest deficit since March 2022.
UK GDP Review: Friday the 13th Weakness Confirmed?
December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC
The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this
December 12, 2024
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
December 12, 2024 5:24 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,
U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December
December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC
Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e
December 11, 2024
FOMC Preview for December 18: A Cautious 25bps Easing
December 11, 2024 7:47 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 18 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.25-4.5% range. Fed commentary has generally suggested that rates are moving lower while cautioning against assuming easing at any meeting is a done deal. Absence of major surprises in recent employment and CPI data probably clears the
SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January
December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be
Preview: Due December 12 - U.S. November PPI - Core rates slightly below trend after slightly above trend October
December 11, 2024 2:06 PM UTC
We expect moderate gains of 0.2% in November PPI, overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. 0.2% gains in the core rates would be on the low side of trend, which remains a little too high to be consistent with inflation returning to the 2.0% target.
U.S. November CPI - A little higher than the Fed would like, but a cautious December easing still expected
December 11, 2024 1:56 PM UTC
November CPI is in line with expectations at +0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with both up by 0.31% before rounding. Core CPI with four straight 0.3% gains is still a little high for comfort but the data is probably subdued enough to allow the FOMC to deliver a 25bps easing next week, thou
UK CPI & BoE Preview (Dec 18-19): Benign Inflation Signals But BoE Still Cautious
December 11, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
While they may not affect the overall BoE verdict on Dec 19, which looks very likely to be a pause after last month’s 25 bp cut (to 4.75%), forthcoming data may very well influence the MPC vote and the message in the updated Monetary Policy Summary. In particular, CPI data (Dec 18) may have some
December 10, 2024
Preview: Due December 24 - U.S. November New Home Sales - Rebounding from hurricanes
December 10, 2024 7:31 PM UTC
We expect a November new home sales level of 740k, which would be a 21.3% increase if October’s 17.3% decline to 610k is unrevised. October’s decline came mostly in the South and may have been caused by hurricanes. If so a rebound is likely.
Preview: Due December 24 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Trend showing signs of improvement
December 10, 2024 6:35 PM UTC
We expect November durable orders to increase by 0.6% overall with a 0.5% increase ex transport. This would be a fourth straight increase ex transport, suggesting some acceleration from what had recently been a fairly flat trend.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. November CPI - Progress showing signs of stalling
December 10, 2024 2:33 PM UTC
We expect November’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall after four straight gains of 0.2% while the ex food and energy rate increases by 0.3% for a fourth straight month. Such an outcome would support concerns that progress in reducing inflation is stalling.
U.S. Q3 and Q2 Unit Labor Costs revised lower
December 10, 2024 1:50 PM UTC
While Q3 non-farm productivity was unrevised at a respectable 2.2% unit labor costs saw a steeper than expected downward revision to 0.8% from 1.9%, with Q2 revised even more significantly lower, to -1.1% from a positive 2.4%.
U.S. November NFIB survey sees sharp post-election bounce
December 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
November’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has seen a sharp rise on the election result, to 101.7, the highest since June 2021, from 93.7, though the move may be in part on the political bias of the respondents.
Norges Bank Preview (Dec 19): Still Resistant
December 10, 2024 11:28 AM UTC
Despite what seems to be an accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated. What seems to be the final nail in the coffin of a rate cut has been the November CPI numbers, higher than consensus bu
Mexico CPI Review: Signs of Disinflation
December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods
December 06, 2024
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
December 6, 2024 3:51 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
Canada November Employment - Strong job growth came largely in the public sector
December 6, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Canada’s 50.5k increase in employment was stronger than expected in November, and fully explained by a 54.2k rise in full time work. However, with 45k of the new jobs created coming in the public sector the data is less impressive than it initially seems. With unemployment up and wages slower we c
U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer
December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC
November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym
December 05, 2024
Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at