Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Increased weakness

August 22, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

We expect a July new home sales level of 615k, which would be a 1.9% decline if June’s 0.6% increase to 627k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since November 2023. We may be near a base but significant gains in new home sales are likely to require the start of Fed easing.

Eurozone: ECB Feels it Has More Reason to ‘Wait and See’?

August 21, 2025 10:02 AM UTC

To suggest that recent EZ real economy indicators, such as today’s August PMI flashes, have been positive would be an exaggeration.  But, at the same time, the data (while mixed and showing conflicts - Figure 1) have not been poor enough to alter a probable current ECB Council mindset that the ec

German Data Preview (Aug 29): Base Effects to Pull Headline Back Up - Temporarily?

August 20, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continued, with the lower-than-expected July HICP numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.2 ppt drop to 1.8% y/y, a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This occurred in spite of adverse energy base effects albeit these likely to feature even more strongly in t

South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June

August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m

UK CPI Review: Special Factors Pull Inflation Even Higher, but is that an Excuse?

August 20, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. And still the highest since January last year.  The notable further 0.3 ppt rise in services inflation to 5.0% was also largely in lin

UK Labor Market: Is the BoE too Complacent?

August 19, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Unlike the Fed, which has dual mandate of curbing inflation and promoting employment, the BoE remit is purely the former.  But it is clear that labour market considerations weigh heavily on the dovish contingent of the MPC and possibly increasingly so.  However, we feel that the BOE is not fully e

U.S. July Industrial Production - A flat picture, but Empire State survey stronger in August

August 15, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

July industrial production has seen a 0.1% decline overall with manufacturing unchanged, both following two straight gains. Mining fell by 0.4%, a second straight drop, while weather-sensitive utilities saw a marginal 0.2% decline after a rise of 1.8% in June.

U.S. July Retail Sales - Resilient entering Q3

August 15, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

July retail sales with a 0.5% increase are in line with expectations, with net upward revisions totaling 0.4%. Ex auto sales rose by 0.3% also with 0.4% in upward revisions while ex auto and gasoline sales rose by 0.2%, here with revisions of only 0.2%.  The data suggest consumer spending is holdin

Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum

August 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.

Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025

August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R

UK GDP Review: Fresh Upside Growth Surprise But Partly Inventory Driven?

August 14, 2025 7:02 AM UTC

To what extent better in June GDP, not least it having been the warmest even such month in England, lay behind the fresh upside surprise that saw the economy grow 0.4%, twice generally expected and with the falls of the two previous months pared back so that a clearer uptrend has emerged (Figure 1).

Deceleration in Inflation Resumes in Russia: 8.8% YoY in July

August 13, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on August 13, inflation stood at 8.8% YoY in July after hitting 9.4% YoY in June, ignited by higher non-food and services prices. Despite inflation eased for a fourth straight month, we foresee inflation will continue to st

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions

August 13, 2025 2:59 PM UTC

We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July. 

India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices

August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b

U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July

August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC

Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.