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August 05, 2025
Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
June US trade deficit falls on weak imports, Canada trade deficit increases on one-time imports bounce
August 5, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
June’s US trade deficit of $60.2bn is even lower than expected, down from $71.7bn in May and in slipping marginally below April’s $60.3bn has reached its lowest level since September 2023. Exports fell by 0.5%, a second straight decline, but imports fell by 3.7%, a third straight fall as strong
August 04, 2025
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. June PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions
August 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July.
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports
August 4, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
August 4, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 4, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase
August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC
The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move
August 01, 2025
U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Deliveries lead slowing, inflationary signals less strong
August 1, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
July’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.8 is the weakest since October 2024 and unexpectedly down from 49.0 in June. The sharpest fall in the composite breakdown was in delivery times, to 49.3 from 54.2, and that implies reduced inflationary pressures.
U.S. July Employment - Revisions to May and June mean trend has slowed significantly
August 1, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected not only with the 73k headline and 83k rise in the private sector, but also with large downward revisions totaling 258k for May and June. Unemployment remains low but edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% while average hourly earnings were on consensus at 0.3%,
July 31, 2025
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports
July 31, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Tariff risks to restrain composite and lift prices
July 31, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slower overall, but stronger in the private sector
July 31, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r
U.S. Initial Claims still low, Employment Cost Index still firm, Q2 income and spending totals confirmed
July 31, 2025 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims with a 1k rise to 218k may have marginally broken a string of six straight declines but are lower than expected, while a 0.9% rise in the Q2 employment cost index is stronger than expected, further signaling continued labor markets strength. June’s personal income and spending repor
German Data Review: Services Inflation Slows Further?
July 31, 2025 12:39 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected July preliminary HICP numbers reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.2 ppt drop to 1.8%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! This occurred in spite of adverse energy base effects. Regardless, there was some reversal of June’s surprise and
July 30, 2025
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outpace Core CPI
July 30, 2025 1:41 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP report. Ahead of the GDP report we expected a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, with a weak 0.2% rise in personal income but a solid 0.5% rise in personal spending. If these forecasts prove
U.S. Q2 GDP - Subdued underlying growth, but with persistent price pressures
July 30, 2025 1:12 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 3.0% is stronger than expected though an above consensus outcome had looked likely after yesterday’s decline in June’s trade deficit. Given extreme volatility in net exports the Q2 data should be seen alongside Q1’s 0.5% decline, giving an average of an unimpr
U.S. July ADP Employment - Rebound from June decline
July 30, 2025 12:29 PM UTC
ADP’s July estimate of private sector employment shows a stronger than expected rebound of 104k from a negative June, revised to -23k from, -33k. The ADP gain is in line with our forecast for private sector payrolls at 110k. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 125k.
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Returning to pre-pandemic pace
July 30, 2025 11:42 AM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic.
Eurozone Flash GDP Review: Resilience or Irrelevance?
July 30, 2025 9:52 AM UTC
As we highlighted in our preview, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. We think this will continue to be the case even after
Turkiye Inflation will Slightly Soften in July: Tax Adjustments and Gas Price Hike in July Will Limit the Fall
July 30, 2025 8:35 AM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 35.1% annually in June, we expect Turkiye’s consumer price index (CPI) will continue to soften moderately in July to 34.1%-34.3% as tax adjustments and energy price hikes in July will limit the downward trend. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling dema