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December 05, 2025
FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing
December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d
U.S. September Core PCE Prices consistent with CPI, December Michigan CSI sees inflation expectations fall
December 5, 2025 3:27 PM UTC
September PCE prices at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy are in line with expectations with the respective gains before rounding at 0.269% and 0.198%. December’s Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations easing, which will provide some comfort to the Fed.
Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause
December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ
Canada November Employment - Third straight strong rise, unemployment lowest since July 2024
December 5, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
Canada’s November employment report has surprised on the upside for a third straight month, rising by 53.6k, and this time with a sharp fall in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.9%. While the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be thinking about tightening yet, the data adds to hopes generated by a 2.6% annua
December 04, 2025
Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 4, 2025 7:57 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 4, 2025 2:56 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
December 4, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
U.S. Initial Claims fell sharply in Thanksgiving week, other labor market signals mixed
December 4, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
Weekly initial claims at 191k from 218k are exceptionally low but there may be some seasonal adjustment issues with Thanksgiving. Unadjusted however initial claims also fell, by 49k to 197k. While this fall in initial claims may be overstated it is the fourth straight decline.
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
December 03, 2025
U.S. November ISM Services - Rise led by delivery times
December 3, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
November’s ISM services index has marginally extended an October bounce, and at 52.6 from 52.4 is at its highest since February. Details are less impressive but the latest two months suggest the economy is still expanding, if moderately, and worries over tariffs, which may have contributed to a di
U.S. September Industrial Production - Trend marginally positive
December 3, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
September industrial production was in line with expectations with a marginal rise of 0.1%, with manufacturing unchanged. Mining was also unchanged with the rise in industrial production coming from a 1.1% upward correction from a 3.0% August decline in weather-sensitive utilities.
Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations
December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin
U.S. November ADP Employment leaves trend looking fairly flat
December 3, 2025 1:38 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate of private sector employment of -32k does not quite reverse a 47k increase in October (revised from 42k) but leaves trend looking fairly flat. The data is consistent with negative signals from weekly ADP employment data released a week ago and also the finding of the latest
December 02, 2025
South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022
December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October
December 2, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline
December 2, 2025 1:58 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Problematic?
December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo
December 01, 2025
U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Weaker than expected but still in a tight range
December 1, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.2 from 48.7 is weaker than expected and the signals of most if not all regional surveys, if not dramatically so. The index is the weakest since July but remains in a fairly tight modestly negative range, since moving above neutral in January and February.
Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments
December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.
November 28, 2025
Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative
November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak
November 27, 2025
Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Economy will Expand by Around 4% in Q3
November 27, 2025 4:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q3 GDP growth on December 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 4.0% YoY backed by investments, strong construction and industry activities in Q3. Of course, growth figure could hit below our expectations due to the we
November 26, 2025
Preview: Due December 1 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
November 26, 2025 2:58 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM manufacturing index to see a modest increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in October, while remaining slightly below September’s 49.1 and below the neutral 50 level for a ninth straight month.