U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs surge

August 6, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Initial claims at 199k from 198k remain very low though continued claims at 1,801m from 1.777m hit a 4-week high. Claims data on balance are giving positive signals for July’s non-farm payroll. Q2 non-farm productivity at 1.4% is stronger than expected and Q2 unit labor costs at 1.3% softer than e

U.S. June JOLTS report shows job openings correcting lower but Q2 remains positive

August 4, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

June’s JOLTS report has shown a 178k decline in job openings with May revised to a 48k decline from a 9k increase. With April having seen a strong 698k increase the 3-month average is still firm at 157k, while the 6-month average is similar at 135k. Q1 also saw a strong rise at the start of the mo

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Strong but with supply problems

August 3, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

July’s ISM manufacturing index of 55.6 from 53.3 is stronger than expected and the highest since May 2022, suggesting this year’s manufacturing revival, led by AI-related business investment, is accelerating further.

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

.   ·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish bias

U.S. July Consumer Confidence - Slight dip, labor market view slipping

July 28, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

July consumer confidence at 90.8 from 92.2 has largely reversed a rise in June, though the moves are fairly small, with confidence remaining weak and in a tight range. 

U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP

July 28, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.

U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP

July 28, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.

U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices

July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.

U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices

July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.

BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated

July 17, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East.