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May 07, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims still very low, Q1 Productivity and Costs report shows strength in non-labor costs
May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC
Initial claims at 200k are up from last week’s exceptionally low 190k but still consistent with layoffs running at veery low levels. Q1 non-farm productivity at 0.8% is marginally below consensus and unit labor costs at 2.3% more significantly so but non-labor costs saw a strong 8.0% increase whic
May 06, 2026
U.S. April ADP Employment - Labor market still looking healthy
May 6, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
April’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 109k is slightly stronger than expected though not as strong as weekly ADP data had been hinting. Still, as the strongest increase since January 2025, it suggests the labor market is not weakening, suggesting Fed focus should be on inflation
May 05, 2026
U.S. April ISM Services, March Job Openings, New Home Sales - Economy growing moderately
May 5, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest round of data provides no major net surprises, with a modest decline in job openings, two straight moderate increases in new home sales and a modest slowing in the ISM services index. The data is consistent with an economy still showing moderate growth.
March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices
May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February.
May 04, 2026
April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures
May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4. After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin
May 01, 2026
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Stable but with higher inflationary pressure
May 1, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is unchanged from March and slightly below expectations but this still means four straight clearly positive readings from an index that had been running below neutral for the ten preceding months.
April 30, 2026
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile. Indeed, f
April 29, 2026
U.S. March Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade, Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
April 29, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
The latest US data is mixed though with more positives than negatives, implying the economy entered the oil shock with solid momentum. The data does not suggest any major revisions to expectations for tomorrow’s Q1 GDP release are needed, though any revisions are likely to be modestly upwards.
April 28, 2026
U.S. April Consumer Confidence remains resilient, labor market view improves
April 28, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, as was the case in March, has proven surprisingly resilient to worries on gasoline prices, with the index seeing a third straight marginal rise, to 92.8 from 92.2.
April 24, 2026
April 23, 2026
U.S. April S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services less weak
April 23, 2026 2:01 PM UTC
April’s preliminary S and P PMIs are improved with manufacturing at 54.0 from 52.3 to reach its highest since May 2022. Services at 51.3 picked up from March’s weak 49.8, seeing the composite up to 52.0 from 50.3.
South Africa Inflation Hit 3.1% y/y in March but Pressures Signal Looming Spike
April 23, 2026 10:40 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, South Africa’s inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in March. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6% and the main drivers behind the rise were housing, utilities and financial services. The surge was driven by a combinat
April 22, 2026
UK CPI Review: Inflation Being Fuelled But Wages Still on the Wane?
April 22, 2026 6:35 AM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March. Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo
April 21, 2026
U.S. March Pending Home Sales - Stronger than expected but no clear trend
April 21, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
Pending home sales have seen an unexpected 1.5% increase in March, a second straight gain, though the declines of December and January have still not been fully reversed, and the yr/yr picture remains marginally negative.
U.S. March Retail Sales - Underlying resilience, lower taxes may be helping
April 21, 2026 1:02 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 1.7% rise, 1.9% ex autos are stronger than expected. Most of the rise is on the surging price of gasoline, though sales ex auto and gasoline with a 0.6% increase are on the firm side of expectations, with February revised up to 0.6% from 0.4% and January to 0.4% from 0.2%.
UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms. Admittedly, headlines may be formed around
April 20, 2026
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact
April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,
April 16, 2026
U.S. March Industrial Production - Hit by corrections in mining, utilities and autos
April 16, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
Contrasting resilience in Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys into April, March industrial production is surprisingly weak, with a 0.5% decline overall and manufacturing down by 0.1%. It is too early to conclude this is a response to the energy shock rather than simply a weak month aft
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, price indices mostly firmer but not alarming
April 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests the economy so far is holding up well to the oil shock, with initial claims low at 207k from 218k and the April Philly Fed at 26.7 from 18.1, reaching its strongest since January 2025. Price data is mostly firmer, but not alarmingly so.
Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?
April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a
UK GDP Review (Apr 16): Fresh But Fleeting Momentum Before the War
April 16, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
Without the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by this latest GDP update which showed a very much above consensus m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. But of course, the conflict has ch