View:
November 07, 2025
U.S. November Preliminary Michigan CSI - Weak, possibly on shutdown or labor market worries
November 7, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.3 has seen a significant dip from 53.6 in October to reach its lowest level since June 2022. Current conditions led the slowing, perhaps due to the government shutdown or weakening in the labor market. Inflation expectations are mixed but within the recent
Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy
November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme
November 06, 2025
Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October
November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC
While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).
November 05, 2025
U.S. October ISM Services - Bounce led by new orders, prices remain firm
November 5, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM services index is not as strong as the S and P Services PMI which was revised to a still firm 54.8 from 55.2, though at 52.4 is still the strongest since February and up from a neutral 50.0 in September.
U.S. October ADP Employment keeps trend marginally positive, if subdued
November 5, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
ADP’s October estimate of employment is slightly stronger than expected with a 42k increase, more than fully reversing September’s 29k decline (revised from -32k) to suggest that underlying trend in employment growth is still marginally positive, if unimpressive.
November 04, 2025
November 03, 2025
U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Still slightly negative, prices paid slowing
November 3, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 from 49.1 is weaker than S and P manufacturing PMI and the bulk of the reginal surveys had implied, and keeps the index is a tight range marginally short of neutral. Some of the tariff impact is fading, with prices paid and inventories slowing.
Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%
November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla
October 31, 2025
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?
October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of
October 30, 2025
Eurozone Flash GDP Review: The Haves and the Have-Nots
October 30, 2025 10:25 AM UTC
It continues to be the case that, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.3% in the year to Q3, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking save to encourage a Council view of EZ eco
October 29, 2025
U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Pause after August bounce
October 29, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
Pending home sales are unchanged in September, underperforming market expectations. Most housing sector indicators have been picking up in recent months. With the flat September following a 4.2% rise in August, pending home sales appear to be doing so too.
October 28, 2025
U.S. October Consumer Confidence remains broadly stable if subdued
October 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 94.6 in October is slightly stronger than expected and down from 95.6 in September only because September was revised up from 94.2. Labor market conditions are slightly improved and inflation expectations slightly higher.
Eurozone: Tighter Credit Standards By EZ Banks Confirmed
October 28, 2025 9:44 AM UTC
Hardly a surprise despite the ECB suggestions to the contrary as the reported net tightening credit standards merely accentuates trends in the two previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS). This updated BLS therefore echoes what we have seen in other ECB surveys and in actual credit dynamics and thus un
UK Food Inflation; Not Just a Domestic Issue, Despite Industry Claims
October 28, 2025 8:45 AM UTC
Food price inflation is becoming an increasing issue for both policy makers and households as well as companies that are generating and selling the produce. Particularly in the UK, rising food price inflation is helping shore up well-above target CPI inflation and thereby deterring the BoE from what
October 27, 2025
ECB Monetary Worries Emerging as Corporate Credit Dynamics Weaken More Clearly
October 27, 2025 10:36 AM UTC
As a foretaste of the Bank Lending Survey BLS) due tomorrow, the ECB released two associated pieces of data today, both corroborating and continuing an ever worrying pattern, namely weakness in corporate credit. The data showed growth in later has fallen to its lowest in almost two years (Figure 1).
October 24, 2025
U.S. October S&P PMIs - Positive signal more reliable for ISM manufacturing than ISM services
October 24, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly stronger, manufacturing marginally at 52.2 from 52.0 and services significantly at 55.2 from 54.2, The services index may be getting support from Fed easing and may not be a reliable guide to ISM services data.
U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target
October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun
October 23, 2025
U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Starting to pick up as mortgage rates fall
October 23, 2025 2:13 PM UTC
September existing home sales with a 1.5% increase are spot on consensus expectations, and while the rise is modest the level is the highest since February, supported by recent declines in mortgage rates.
October 22, 2025
South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September
October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe
UK CPI Review: A Final and Lower Than Expected Peak?
October 22, 2025 7:05 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, and did so again in September in what was a lo
October 20, 2025
Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey - Unlikely to shift BoC's views
October 20, 2025 3:52 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 business outlook survey is mixed though overall probably does not change the Bank of Canada’s view very much. The overall business outlook indicator of -2.28 is marginally improved from Q2’s -2.40 but leaves the index is a fairly narrow and marginally negative range. Th
October 16, 2025
U.S. Budget Deficit falls in Fiscal Year 2024-25 as tariff revenues pick up
October 16, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
Despite the government shutdown the US Treasury has released budget data for September, the final month of the fiscal year. A monthly surplus of $197.95bn, up from $64.685bn in September 2024, has seen the fiscal year deficit at $1.775 trillion fall below the previous fiscal year’s $1.817 trillion
U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Housing responding to lower mortgage rates
October 16, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
October’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 is up significantly from two months at 32 and the highest level since April, if still quite weak. This suggests recent falls in mortgage rates as the Fed resumes easing are having some impact on the housing market.
U.S. October Philly Fed - Details more encouraging than the weak headline
October 16, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
October’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -12.8 has fallen unexpectedly sharply from the surprisingly strong September reading of 22.3 and is the weakest since April when tariff worries were at their peak. Detail in the report is however more positive.