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November 25, 2025
U.S. November Consumer Confidence slides but October pending home sales stronger
November 25, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October is the weakest since April when tariff concerns were at their peak. October pending home sales however with a 1.9% increase sustain recent signs of a revival in the housing market as Fed easing resumes.
U.S. September Retail Sales lose momentum, PPI strong in goods but weak in services
November 25, 2025 2:08 PM UTC
September retail sales with a rise of 0.2% are weaker than expected and likely to be negative in real terms, given September gains in CPI goods prices, suggesting momentum in consumer spending is starting to fade with employment growth. September’s PPI with a rise of 0.3% overall met expectations
November 21, 2025
U.S. November S&P PMIs - Still healthy
November 21, 2025 3:01 PM UTC
November’s preliminary S and P PMIs both remain at healthy levels, manufacturing modestly slower at 51.9 from 52.5 but still comfortably positive, while services have unexpectedly seen a modest increase to 55.0 from 54.8. The composite increased to 54.8 from 54.6.
November 20, 2025
U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Starting to gain momentum
November 20, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
A 1.2% rise in October existing home sales is in line with other private sector surveys (NAHB, MBA and pending home sales) suggesting some revival in the housing market as the Fed resumes easing. With the scale of future easing uncertain the housing sector outlook is too.
U.S. Initial Claims stable but Continued Claims moving higher
November 20, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
Today we saw the non-farm payroll for September, as well as eight weeks of initial claims that take us to the survey week for November’s non-farm payroll. Initial claims remain low, though continued claims have been rising in recent weeks, hinting at downside risks for non-farm payrolls in October
U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker
November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov
November 19, 2025
South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024
November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta
U.S. August trade deficit slips back after bounce in July, still in correction from inflated pre-tariff deficits
November 19, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
August’s delayed trade deficit of $59.55bn is narrower than expected, down significantly from July’s $78.5bn, but still marginally above June’s $59.09bn. Despite July’s bounce, the deficit remains in a correction from the inflated pre-tariff levels of Q1 which saw a record deficit of $136.42
UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?
November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak. Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff
November 18, 2025
U.S. November NAHB Homebuilders Index - Bounce extended but 6-month view corrects lower
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
November’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 38 has marginally extended a 5-point October bounce and remains at its highest level since April. Details show increasing strength in current month data but a correction lower in the 6-month view.
November 17, 2025
U.S. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity sees 12 month high, prices slower but still firm
November 17, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
November’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 18.7 from 10.7 is the strongest in twelve months, and the third healthy number in four months, though with November 2024 strength at 20.7 not having persisted we would treat the latest strength with a degree of caution.
India CPI Review: Inflation Cools to Historic Lows
November 17, 2025 8:04 AM UTC
India’s October inflation print confirms a rare moment of macro alignment—low inflation, solid growth, and room for monetary easing. The RBI now faces a high-conviction window to cut rates in December, but must stay vigilant against creeping food price risks as FY26 progresses.
November 14, 2025
Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025
November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg
Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October
November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue
November 13, 2025
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best
November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking. Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar
November 11, 2025
U.S. October NFIB survey - Weaker but far from weak
November 11, 2025 1:33 PM UTC
October’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.2 from 98.8 has seen a second straight decline, possibly influenced by the government shutdown which looks close to being resolved. The index is still well above pre-election levels and above April’s 95.8 when tariff alarm was at its peak.
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC
Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1). Regardless, the latest l
November 07, 2025
U.S. November Preliminary Michigan CSI - Weak, possibly on shutdown or labor market worries
November 7, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.3 has seen a significant dip from 53.6 in October to reach its lowest level since June 2022. Current conditions led the slowing, perhaps due to the government shutdown or weakening in the labor market. Inflation expectations are mixed but within the recent
Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy
November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme
November 06, 2025
Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October
November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC
While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).
November 05, 2025
U.S. October ISM Services - Bounce led by new orders, prices remain firm
November 5, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM services index is not as strong as the S and P Services PMI which was revised to a still firm 54.8 from 55.2, though at 52.4 is still the strongest since February and up from a neutral 50.0 in September.
U.S. October ADP Employment keeps trend marginally positive, if subdued
November 5, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
ADP’s October estimate of employment is slightly stronger than expected with a 42k increase, more than fully reversing September’s 29k decline (revised from -32k) to suggest that underlying trend in employment growth is still marginally positive, if unimpressive.
