Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

EZ HICP Review: Headline Inflation Moves Higher as Services Ticks Up From Cycle-low

October 1, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

A second successive upside surprise is unlikely to make inflation any more of an issue for the ECB at present.  Instead, moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter should remain the order of the day, this possibly a result of a still somewhat unresponsive t

U.S. August Job Openings slightly higher but September Consumer Confidence slips on labor market concerns

September 30, 2025 2:36 PM UTC

August job openings in the JOLTS report were slightly higher than expected with a rise off 19k to 7.227m but still present a picture of a fairly flat labor market. September consumer confidence at 94.2 from 97.8 was slightly weaker than expected, and showed perceptions of the labor market deteriorat

German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?

September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff

RBA Review: Data Dependency Continues

September 30, 2025 8:17 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on September 30th keep rates at 3.6% and continue to point toward data dependency

U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices maintaining trend, still above target

September 26, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

August personal income at 0.4% and spending at 0.6% are both a little stronger than expected while price indices are in line, 0.3% for overall PCE and 0.2% for the core rate, with the latter 0.227% before rounding. Each price index underperformed the August CPI counterpart by 0.1% (August PPI was so

U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Underlying picture near flat, base may be forming

September 25, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

August existing home sales are slightly stronger than expected but at 4.00m are down 0.2% from July, with the underlying picture looking fairly flat in recent months. Yr/yr growth is modest at 1.8%, and no longer negative as it was in February, March, April and May.

U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade all stronger than expected

September 25, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

The latest set of US data is clearly on the strong side of expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up significantly to 3.8% from 3.3%, August’s advance trade deficit falling to $85.5bn from $102.8bn, August durable goods orders rising by 2.9% with a 0.4% increase ex transport, and initial claims falling

U.S. August New Home Sales - Sharp bounce probably in part erratic but merits attention

September 24, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

August new home sales are sharply higher than expected, with a rise of 20.5% to 800k, the highest level since January 2022. The new home sales series is volatile and often sees substantial revisions, so this gain should be treated cautiously, but it raises the question on whether expectations fir Fe

U.S. September S&P PMIs - Slower but still portraying a growing economy

September 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are weaker than in August, manufacturing at 52.0 from 53.0 and services at 53.9 from 54.5, but still paint a picture of an economy growing at a respectable pace. The composite was 53.6 from 54.6.

U.S. Initial Claims show last week's bounce was erratic, September Philly Fed surprisingly strong

September 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims at 231k have returned to trend after last week’s surprisingly high 264k which appears to have been influenced by Labor Day seasonal adjustments. September’s 23.2 Philly Fed manufacturing index is also surprisingly strong, contrasting weaker Empire State data.

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Broad based slippage

September 17, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

August housing starts with a fall of 8.5% to 1307k and permits with a fall of 3.7% to 1312k are both weaker than expected. Details in both series show declines in both singles and multiples, with the sharper declines in the volatile latter components.

September 17, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th

U.S. August Industrial Production - Trend marginally positive

September 16, 2025 1:30 PM UTC

August industrial production gains of 0.1% overall and 0.2% in manufacturing are modest, but they exceed expectations and the implications of weak aggregate manufacturing hours worked data in the August non-farm payroll.

U.S. August Retail Sales - Still Resilient

September 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

August retail sales with a 0.6% increase, with the ex-auto and ex auto and gasoline gains both at 0.7%, are stronger than expected and suggest continued consumer resilience despite a slowing in employment growth. The rise modestly exceeds a 0.5% rise in CPI commodity prices in August.

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Softer but underlying picture near flat and prices still firm

September 15, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.7 from a positive 11.9 has broken a string of three straight positives which followed four straight negatives. The index is volatile but now it looks like that the three straight positives were not signaling an untrend. The underlying picture is p

U.S. September Preliminary Michigan CSI - Lower as 5-10 year inflation expectations rebound

September 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

September’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.4 is down from 58.2 and weaker than expected, if still above April and May levels. Worries seem to be longer term, with expectations down by more than current conditions and longer term inflation expectations bouncing while the 1-year view is unchanged.

UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs

September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer