View:
July 01, 2025
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up
June 30, 2025
German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be
June 27, 2025
U.S. May Personal Income and Spending slip, Core PCE Prices above consensus but not alarming
June 27, 2025 12:59 PM UTC
May’s core PCE price index, while not alarming, is at 0.2% a little firmer than expected, with yr/yr growth rising to 2.7% from an upwardly revised 2.6% (from 2.5%) in April. Personal income and spending data is weak, down by 0.4% and 0.,1% respectively.
June 26, 2025
U.S. May Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Initial Claims stronger, Q1 GDP and May Trade Balance weaker
June 26, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed, with a downward revision to Q1 GDP to -0.5% from -0.2% led by consumer spending, and a higher advance goods trade deficit for May of $96.6bn from $87.0bn is negative for Q2. However initial claims at 236k from 246k are lower than expected while May durable goods orders surg
June 25, 2025
U.S. May New Home Sales - Strong April, weak May, prices rise, but trend may be slowing
June 25, 2025 2:36 PM UTC
May new home sales have fallen by 13.7% to 623k to more than fully reverse April’s 9.6% rise to 722k (revised from 743k). April’s total (after the revision) is the highest since May 2023 while May’s total is the lowest since October 2024. Trend has no clear direction but on balance housing dat
June 24, 2025
U.S. June Consumer Confidence slips on labor market perceptions
June 24, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
Contrasting a stronger preliminary June Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has slipped to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The contrast with the Michigan CSI comes after May data when the Michigan CSI remained weak but the Conference Board index bounced from 85.7 in April
June 23, 2025
U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Underlying picture near flat
June 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
May existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.8% increase to 4.03m which follows a 0.5% fall in April to 4.00m which was also unexpected. This suggests a fairly subdued picture, but a more resilient one than some surveys, notably pending home sales and the NAHB index, have implied.
U.S. June S&P PMIs - Resilience suggests tariff worries have peaked
June 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
June’s preliminary S and P PMIs shows manufacturing unexpectedly sustaining an improved May level of 52.0, and while services slipped to 53.1 from 53.7, the index remains well above April’s weaker 50.8. This is consistent with tariff concerns being past their peak.
.
June 20, 2025
U.S. June Philly Fed - Details mostly weak
June 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC
June’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -4.0 is unchanged from May and weaker than expected. The details are generally soft, with 6-month expectations slowing to 18.3 from May’s very strong 47.2, though the 6-month view is still stronger than seen in March and April.
June 19, 2025
Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold
June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC
Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period. Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate. We would suspect
June 18, 2025
U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits, Weekly Initial Claims - Trends weakening
June 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
May housing starts with a 9.8% decline to 1256k are well below expectations and the weakest since June 2020 through a 2.0% fall in permits, also below consensus, suggests a fairly moderate weakening in trend. Initial claims at 245k from 250k and continued claims at .945m from 1.951m are slightly low
South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY
June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do
UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Falls Clearly
June 18, 2025 6:40 AM UTC
As for the UK, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what would happen after the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises fell due, albeit now offset somewhat by a fall in petrol prices. The result was a notch higher t
June 17, 2025
U.S. June NAHB Homebuilders Index - Weakest since December 2022
June 17, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
June’s NAHB homebuilders’ index with a decline to 32 from 34 is the weakest since December 2022, extending a sharp 6 point fall seen in May. The data suggests strength in April new home sales is unlikely to be sustained.
U.S. May Retail Sales - Two straight declines as confidence slides
June 17, 2025 12:50 PM UTC
May retail sales with a 0.9% decline are slightly weaker than expected. The ex auto data at -0.3% and ex auto and gas at -0.1% are negative too, though the control group which contributes to GDP was resilient with a 0.4% rise.
June 16, 2025
U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Weak but 6-month expectations bounce
June 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
June's Empire State manufacturing index at -16.0 from -9.2 suggests increasing weakness, though the series can be erratic, as noted by a -20.0 reading in March and a positive 20.2 in November 2024, neither of which was sustained. Six month expectations saw a significant bounce, to 21.2 from -2.0.
June 14, 2025
Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi
June 13, 2025
U.S. June Preliminary Michigan CSI - Back to levels seen before the reciprocal tariff announcement
June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.
June 12, 2025
Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY
June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i
U.S. May PPI - Soft but recent revisions have been large, initial claims picking up
June 12, 2025 1:12 PM UTC
May’s PPI, matching May’s CPI, has come in softer than expected at 0.1% and in both the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, though the downside surprise is partially offset by upward revisions to April, overall and ex food and energy both to -0.2% from -0.5% and -0.4% r