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December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC
Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024.
December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.
November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se
November 29, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the November flash HICP. Matching consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.3 ppt to 2.3%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main factor behind the rise back
November 28, 2024 1:40 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, albeit with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the preliminary November estimate, lower than widely expected, but where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%. This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation (Figure 1)
November 27, 2024 3:15 PM UTC
October PCE prices at 0.2% overall, 0.3% core, with yr/yr rates slightly firmer at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively are as expected and predicted by Fed’s Powell on November 14. The core rate at 0.27% before rounding is not quite as strong as the core CPI. The pace is a little higher than desirable, but
November 27, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest round of data. Initial claims remain low but continued claims remain high, Q3 GDP was unrevised at 2.8%. October durable goods maintain a marginally positive trend, up 0.2% overall and 0.1% ex transport. October’s advance goods trade deficit corrected low
November 26, 2024 3:21 PM UTC
November consumer confidence is slightly stronger at 111.7 from 109.6 but has not shown a strong reaction to the election, presumably because similar numbers were pleased and disappointed with the result. New home sales have shown a sharp unexpected fall in October, by 17.3% to 610k, but appears to
November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2
November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst. After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March. These numbers ar
November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC
October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.
November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.
November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC
The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six
November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC
October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb
November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and
November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government
November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F
November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co
November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC
Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain
November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may
November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex
November 8, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
While Canada’s 14.5k October rise in employment was not very impressive on the headline, the details are mostly positive and support a view that the Canadian economy is starting to regain momentum now that the Bank of Canada is easing monetary policy.
November 8, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may have been something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only
November 7, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
Weekly initial claims with a rise to 221k from 218k (revised from 216k) are in line with expectations and still low. However a rise in continued claims to 1.892m from 1.853m is disappointing and suggest that job losses from recent hurricanes may be persisting. Q3 non-farm productivity with a 2.2% in
November 5, 2024 3:21 PM UTC
October’s ISM services index at 56.0 from 54.9 is the strongest since August 2022 and while probably a little overstated, particularly a surge in the deliveries index, suggests a healthy underlying economic picture entering Q4.
November 5, 2024 2:06 PM UTC
September’s US trade deficit of $84.4bn is the widest since April 2022, rebounding from a 5-month low deficit of $70.8bn in August to keep a deteriorating trend intact. The average of August and September is slightly lower than July’s $78.9bn but the deficit increased in Q3.
November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC
Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p
November 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index at 46.5 from 47.2 is the weakest since July 2023 if only a modest deterioration. We doubt the Boeing strike had a major impact on this report which is less sensitive to issues in one large company than are aggregate measures of output.
November 1, 2024 1:27 PM UTC
October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes, though probably also in part due to a correction from an above trend September, and negative revisions make the trend going into this report less strong than it was.
October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.
October 31, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q3 totals having been seen in the GDP report. As in Q3, growth in spending, of 0.5%, exceeds a 0.3% rise in income while core PCE prices are on the firm side of trend at 0.3%, though only 0.254% before rounding. The Employmen
October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024
October 31, 2024 10:42 AM UTC
Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1). The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read
October 30, 2024 6:01 PM UTC
Mexico's Q3 GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations, though annual growth slowed to 1.5%. High employment and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand sustained growth, but the outlook remains cautious. Slower growth is expected ahead, with limited structural shifts such as near
October 30, 2024 3:35 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below the ECB target and well below expect
October 30, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
Pending home sales have seen a strong 7.4% increase in September which coincided with the start of Fed easing and expectations for further rate cuts to come. With easing expectations having been pared down since then, the bounce may prove difficult to sustain in October.
October 30, 2024 1:07 PM UTC
The 2.8% increase in Q3 GDP is in line with expectations and another solid quarter to follow a 3.0% rise in Q2. The gain was led by a 3.7% rise in consumer spending but domestic demand looks healthy outside slippage in private sector construction. A slightly stronger than expected 2.2% rise in the c
October 30, 2024 12:30 PM UTC
ADP’s October estimate for private sector employment growth of 233k is well above consensus and suggests underlying strength in the labor market. However ADP is not a reliable enough guide to payrolls to have us revising our forecast for a below trend 75k (40k in the private sector) increase in th
October 30, 2024 10:26 AM UTC
Even more clearly, the EZ economy is diverging as Germany stutters while Spain prospers. However, the risks are that the whole of the EZ is weakening given the possibly gloomier messages from business survey data. Admittedly, there were some upside surprises in the Q3 numbers, albeit with the un
October 29, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
September job openings have fallen by 418k to 7.443m, resuming a slowing trend back into line with pre-pandemic levels. August’s strong rise of 329k has been revised down to 150k. Three and six month averages for openings both stand near -150k. October consumer confidence however, at 108.7 from 99
October 29, 2024 12:45 PM UTC
September’s advance goods US trade deficit of $108.2bn is significantly wider than expected and adds to downside risks to Q3 GDP (we will stick to our already below consensus 2.4% call which assumed a wider September trade deficit).
October 24, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
September new home sales with a 4.1% rise to 738k are on the firm side of expectations. The series, while volatile, has been trending higher since falling to a 12-month low of 611k in November 2023.
October 24, 2024 10:13 AM UTC
It is clear that PMI data are a key component of the data analysis of the ECB. We are somewhat sceptical of the data, at least in its ability to track GDP growth coincidently and accurately. But the data does offer a wide-ranging insight into private sector economic momentum. With this in mind t
October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account
October 23, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
September existing home sales are weaker than expected, falling 1.0% to 3.84m to the lowest level since October 2010. The softer data contrasts some signs of stronger housing demand in some September surveys, but signals for October are mixed.