U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys stronger at the start of 2026

January 15, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

The latest US data suggests a stronger start to 2026, with initial jobless claims very low at 198k from 207k in a week not including a holiday and is thus less prone to a surprise, and also positive manufacturing surveys from the Empire State at 7.7 and the Philly Fed at 12.6, both contrasting negat

U.S. December Existing Home Sales - Responding to Fed easing

January 14, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

December existing home sales have seen a strong 5.1% increase to 4.35m, this the strongest of four straight gains and the highest level since February 2022.

U.S. Retail Sales and PPI over October and November not far from expectations

January 14, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

November retail sales with a rise of 0.6% are marginally stronger than expected but the data is close to expectations net of modest negative back month revisions. PPI has been released for both October and November, also net in line with expectations, with October on the firm side in the core rate f

U.S. September and October New Home Sales - Trend showing signs of improvement

January 13, 2026 3:23 PM UTC

October new home sales at 737k are slightly above consensus and almost unchanged from September’s 738k, which was released for the first time with this October report. August however was revised down quite sharply from a surprisingly strong 800k to 711k, while June and July were also revised lower

U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4

January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s

India CPI Review: December CPI Signals End of Disinflation Cycle

January 13, 2026 8:50 AM UTC

December’s CPI print reinforces that the inflation trough is behind us. While headline inflation remains below target, a sharp rebound in core driven by gold and jewellery could limit the RBI’s room for manoeuvre in early 2026. With a new CPI series incoming, the next few months will test the cr

U.S. December Employment - Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint but Unemployment down

January 9, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

December’s non-non-farm payroll at 50k is marginally softer than expected, and a net negative given a substantial net downward revision of 76k to October and November, with the bulk of the revision coming in October when the government shutdown made measurement more challenging. Unemployment howev

U.S. October trade deficit plunge not sustainable, Initial Claims still low, Unit Labor Costs fall but Non-Labor Costs surge

January 8, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

The big shock in the latest data is a dramatic fall in October’s trade deficit to $29.4bn from $48.1bn, to its lowest level since February 2009. This will lift Q4 GDP estimates and give Trump a political boost as the Supreme Court prepares to make a judgement on his tariffs. However the strength,

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Resilient But Core Goods Soften Further

January 7, 2026 10:44 AM UTC

HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, albeit where adverse rounding pre vented a fall to 1.9%.  We see this as th

Turkiye’s Foreign Trade Deficit Increased in 2025 Despite TRY Slide

January 6, 2026 4:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary annual figures announced by the Ministry of Trade on January 6, Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit increased to USD92.2 billion in 2025 from USD82.2 billion in 2024, partly due to higher purchases of investment goods and raw materials. According to preliminar

German HICP Review: Headline and Core Down Afresh

January 6, 2026 4:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process resumed with a bang as December saw a larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation.  Indeed, the headline HICP fell 0.6 ppt to a five-month low of 2.0%.  This was largely food and energy driven but still with some fall in core at least according to

U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Weaker on reversal in inventories

January 5, 2026 3:18 PM UTC

December’s ISM manufacturing index of 47.9 is unexpectedly down from 48.2 and the  weakest since October 2024, though the details do not suggest much underlying change in the picture, which remains subdued and a little below neutral.

Turkiye Closes the Year with Inflation Easing to 30.9% y/y in December

January 5, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on January 5, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 30.9% y/y in December backed by the lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening. Food, housing and education drove the inflation in December as education prices recorde

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?

December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures.  This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak.  Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp