South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?

December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures.  This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak.  Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp

U.S. December S&P PMIs - Less positive, particularly services

December 16, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are both weaker and below consensus, manufacturing only marginally at 51.8 from 52.2 but services more significantly at 52.9 from 54.1. The composite fell to 53.0 from 54.2.

U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum

December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct

UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages

December 16, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Adding to the array if weak activity updates of late, there are increasing signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs more clearly and broadly with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down alm

UK GDP Review: Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless

December 12, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the October GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant.  Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months (Figure 1), and where the unexpected further 0.

U.S. Initial Claims rebound from holiday drop, September trade deficit falls on surge in gold exports

December 11, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

After a sharply below trend outcome last week of 192k (revised from 191k) in a week that included the Thanksgiving holiday and may have seen seasonal adjustment problems, initial claims have rebounded above trend to 236k. The 2-week average is 214k, slightly below the 218k seen two weeks ago and the

Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November

December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue

RBA Review: Bullock More Hawkish In Press Conference

December 9, 2025 5:16 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on December 8th keep rates unchanged at 3.6% 
Statement and press conference suggest there will be no more rate cut

U.S. Initial Claims fell sharply in Thanksgiving week, other labor market signals mixed

December 4, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims at 191k from 218k are exceptionally low but there may be some seasonal adjustment issues with Thanksgiving. Unadjusted however initial claims also fell, by 49k to 197k. While this fall in initial claims may be overstated it is the fourth straight decline. 

Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations

December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin

U.S. November ADP Employment leaves trend looking fairly flat

December 3, 2025 1:38 PM UTC

ADP’s November estimate of private sector employment of -32k does not quite reverse a 47k increase in October (revised from 42k) but leaves trend looking fairly flat. The data is consistent with negative signals from weekly ADP employment data released a week ago and also the finding of the latest

South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022

December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe

December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Weaker than expected but still in a tight range

December 1, 2025 3:15 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.2 from 48.7 is weaker than expected and the signals of most if not all regional surveys, if not dramatically so. The index is the weakest since July but remains in a fairly tight modestly negative range, since moving above neutral in January and February.

Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments

December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.