U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?

October 14, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649

UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August

October 12, 2026 4:05 PM UTC

The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon

UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August

October 12, 2026 4:04 PM UTC

The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon

China’s Quite 2nd Tier Banking Clean Up

October 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The quite though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply.  Equity capital injections to 8 large state banks is

New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view

October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing

October 6, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s

Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing

October 6, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s

U.S. September ISM Services - Fairly stable but with prices picking up

October 5, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

Contrasting a significantly improved S and P services PMI of 58.8, September’s ISM services index of 54.9 is slightly lower than expected and down from 55.4 in August, though still maintaining a fairly stable profile at a level that implies a respectable pace of economic growth.

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum

October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.