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May 30, 2025
U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Reduced tariffs on China appear to have eased concerns
May 30, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
May’s Final Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations coming down significantly, no longer significantly accelerating from April, probably due to reduced tariffs on China. However the boost to sentiment is modest, the final figure of 52.2 up from a preliminary 50.8 and unchanged from April.
Canada Q1 GDP leaves BoC rate call a close one, but we now lean to no change
May 30, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP was surprisingly resilient, rising in line with recent trend by 2.1% annualized, though Q4 was revised down to 2.1% from 2.6%. Detail was less positive, with domestic demand falling by 0.1% though this follows a 5.2% surge in Q4. March GDP rose by 0.1% as expected, and the prelimin
U.S. April Trade Deficit falls sharply after tariffs imposed, Personal Income strong, Spending and Core PCE Prices subdued
May 30, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
While March personal spending is subdued as expected with a 0.2% rise, personal income shows surprising strength with a rise of 0.8%, while core PCE prices are subdued as expected, up 0.1%, underperforming a 0.2% core CPI. A much smaller than expected advance April trade deficit of $87.6bn is suppor
German Data Review: Lower Headline Services Surge Reverses
May 30, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low. Most notable amid a drop caused
Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1
May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit
May 29, 2025
U.S. April Pending Home Sales - Renewed weakness
May 29, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 6.3% April decline have more than fully reversed a 5.5% March increase (revised lower from 6.1%) to resume a picture of underlying weakness. Recent gains in mortgage rates in response to rising UST yields may have contributed to the drop.
May 27, 2025
U.S. May Consumer Confidence bounce likely supported by equities
May 27, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
Contrasting continued weakness in the Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has seen a sharp bounce in May, to 98.0 from 85.7, led by consumer expectations, which appears related to rising equities as trade tensions reduced somewhat.
Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?
May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9. Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden
May 23, 2025
U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals
May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April
Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway. Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals. ECB wage tracker and
May 22, 2025
U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Unexpected dip, subdued outlook
May 22, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
April existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.5% fall to 4.00m which contrasts a strong 6.1% rise in March pending home sales which are designed to predict existing home sales. However the outlook for the housing sector looks quite subdued overall.
U.S. May S&P PMIs - Gains follow reduction in tariffs on China
May 22, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
May’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly improved, both manufacturing and services at 52.3, up from 50.2 and 50.8 respectively in April. The gains may reflect reduced trade risks after the cut in tariffs on China.
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U.S. Initial Claims slip, trend moving up but only slowly
May 22, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims have seen a modest decline to 227k from 229k in the latest week, the survey week for May’s non-farm payroll. Trend is creeping higher but consistent with only a marginal slowing in the labor market, with no recessionary signal.
Eurozone: Services Offer Sobering News
May 22, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
The May flash composite PMI data may have fallen into apparent contraction territory as the index dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in five months and thereby signalling a reduction, albeit a marginal one. We do not take much issue whether
May 21, 2025
As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April
May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy
UK CPI Review (May 21): How Durable a Surge?
May 21, 2025 6:50 AM UTC
The UK and the rest of the DM world are now decoupling, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK is seeing a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below, targets – although some measures if underling EZ inflation have started to edg
May 20, 2025
May 16, 2025
Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab
U.S. May Preliminary Michigan CSI - Is the fall a sign that prices are now accelerating?
May 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
May’s Preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.8 is, despite the equity recovery, surprisingly weaker than April’s final of 52.2, though the 50.8 reading matches exactly the preliminary May outcome, though most responses were received before the US-China trade de-escalation. This could be a sign that afte
U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Single family slippage suggests trend starting to slip
May 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
April housing starts are in line with expectations, up 1.6% to 1361k, but permits are weaker than expected, down 4.7% to 1412k. With the starts rise fully due to the volatile multiples sector and the permits fall broad based this is a weaker than expected report.
May 15, 2025
U.S. April PPI - Weak month, strong revisions, strong core goods, weak services
May 15, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
April’s PPI, even more so than April’s CPI, was surprisingly soft, falling by 0.5% overall, 0.4% ex food and energy and by 0.1% ex food, energy and trade. However March PPI saw sharp upward revisions, overall to unchanged from -0.4%, ex food and energy to a 0.4% rise from -0.1%, and ex food, e
U.S. April Industrial Production - Manufacturing slips but May surveys suggest some resilience
May 15, 2025 1:38 PM UTC
April industrial production was unchanged but manufacturing output saw a weak month, falling by 0.4%, to reverse a March increase. Signals from manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed and Empire State for May however, released shortly before, are on balance less negative.
U.S. April Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Claims - Only limited signs of slowing
May 15, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April retail sales and weekly initial claims are in line with expectations, and consistent with a moderate slowing in the economy, but with no recessionary signals. It is however too early for the full impact of tariffs to be seen, particularly with the impact of tariffs on prices so far limited.