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March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa
March 27, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
The advance goods trade deficit of $147.9bn in February, while down from January’s record $155.6bn remains very high and suggests a sharp negative from net exports in Q1 GDP, while the inventory offset, +0.3% for wholesale and +0.1% for retail is modest. Initial claims remain low at 224k, while Q4
March 26, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals. They may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for the core to 3.5%. This came in spite of higher alcohol duties and no dro
March 25, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.
March 24, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing slipping back below neutral to 49.8 from 52.7, a sign that tariff concerns are having a negative impact, but services, less sensitive to tariffs, improved at 54.3 from 51.6.
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March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in
March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol
March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t
March 18, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
February industrial production has seen a stronger than expected 0.7% rise overall with an even more impressive 0.9% rise in manufacturing. Manufacturing ex autos was less impressive up by 0.3%, though this still means three straight gains.
March 18, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
February housing starts are stronger than expected with a rise of 11.2% to 1501k though this needs to be seen alongside a weather-induced 11.5% decline in January. Permits with a 1.2% decline to 1456k are in line with expectations and show a third straight modest decline.
March 17, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February retail sales with a gain of 0.2% overall is unimpressive, particularly with January revised down to -1.2% from -0.9% while gains of 0.3% ex auto and 0.5% ex auto and gas fail to reverse respective January decline of 0.6% and 0.8%. However the control group, which contributes to GDP, with a
March 14, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
March’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 57.9 from 64.7 is the weakest since November 2022 with the fall led by future expectations. Consumers are particularly worried about inflation, with the 1-year view up to 4.9% from 4.3% and the more closely watched 5-10 year view at 3.9% from 3.5%.
March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi
March 13, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
February PPI is surprisingly subdued at unchanged overall with an even softer 0.1% decline ex food and energy. Much of the surprise comes from trade prices with ex food, energy and trade up by 0.2%, but even this is moderate. Initial claims at 220k from 222k suggest the labor market remains healthy.
March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
March 12, 2025 10:43 PM UTC
Brazil's February CPI increased by 1.3%, the highest in 22 years, largely driven by the removal of subsidized electricity bills, which boosted Housing by 4.4%. The year-over-year inflation rose to 5.1%, above the BCB's target. Key contributors included Education (up 4.4%) and Food and Beverages (up
March 12, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February CPI is softer than expected with gains of 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the ex food and energy rate up by 0.227% before rounding. Coming after a strong January conclusions should be cautious, while upcoming months may be lifted by tariffs. However, the data will come as a r
March 12, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
The Argentine government has issued an emergency decree to authorize a new IMF deal, potentially worth USD 20 billion, to pay off Treasury debt to the Central Bank. This deal includes a 4-year grace period and 10-year repayment terms. The government aims to stabilize reserves, delay debt amortizatio
March 11, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
January’s JOLTS report shows a stronger than expected 248k rise in openings to 7.74m, and while this comes after a 648k December decline (revised from 556k) with October data having been positive the 3- month average is near neutral, as is the 6-month.
March 11, 2025 12:02 PM UTC
February’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism to at 100.7 from 102.8 has seen a second straight decline, though the combined loss of 4.4 points is still modest in comparison with the 11.4-point rise seen between October and December. Still, there are some concerning signs in the detail.
March 7, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
Canada’s February employment with a marginal rise of 1.1k has seen a pause after three straight strong months. With StatsCanada citing snowstorms as an issue not too much should be read into this subdued month, though trend is likely to slow in the months ahead as US tariffs are imposed.
March 7, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
February’s non-farm payroll with a 131k increase in not far from consensus with near neutral back revisions, but does suggest momentum is slowing in Q1, though probably in part on weather. Other detail is on the soft side, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% with net negative revisions, and the w
March 6, 2025 2:03 PM UTC
Initial claims at 221k from 242k are lower than expected and suggest last week’s high figure was impacted more by some mix of bad weather and seasonal adjustment problems due to the President’s Day holiday than DOGE layoffs.
March 6, 2025 10:27 AM UTC
After upside surprises in December, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive but which contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showing weakness spreading into hitherto strong co
March 5, 2025 3:19 PM UTC
After the alarmingly weak preliminary S and P services PMI of 49.7 was revised up to a marginally positive 51.0, February’s ISM services index picked up to a stronger than expected 53.5 from 52.8, a pace that suggests continued respectable growth, in line with recent trend.
March 5, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
ADP’s February estimate of private sector employment growth of 77k is well below expectations and a break from what had been a stable and solid trend. ADP is not a reliable guide to payrolls so we will not revise our 210k payroll call (190k in the more comparable private sector). Still, this is pr
March 4, 2025 12:02 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African economy grew modestly by 0.6% YoY in Q4 2024 driven by strong performances by agricultural sector and finance. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on March 4, demand side of the economy was lifted by household consumption expenditu
March 3, 2025 4:17 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers may did deliver better news and broadly but only marginally so (Figure 1) with the headline dropping 0.1 ppt to a higher-than-expected 2.4%. This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation. Instead, the core also eased’
March 3, 2025 11:14 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 3 that the inflation softened to 39.1% y/y in February from 42.1% y/y in January. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than-expected hike in minimum wage in January contin
February 28, 2025 2:47 PM UTC
The message from Canada’s surprisingly strong Q4 GDP data, up 2.6% annualized with positive revisions to Q2 and Q3, with December up 0.2% and the advance estimate for January up 0.3%, is that Bank of Canada easing is giving more support to the economy that was fully appreciated. Tariffs are of cou
February 28, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
January’s PCE price data, up 0.3% both overall and core (0.325% and 0.285% respectively before rounding) is in line with expectations, but significantly less alarming than the respective CPI gains of 0.5% and 0.4%. There were some surprises elsewhere, with income sharply ahead of spending and a ma
February 28, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
As Germany faces possibly deeper and more prolonged political deadlock, its disinflation process continues, but there are signs that the downtrend is flattening out and this may be the message into the rest of 2025. Indeed, as was the case in January, HICP inflation stayed at 2.8% in February, a not
February 28, 2025 12:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 28 that Turkish economy expanded by 3.0% in Q4 2024, and 3.2% YoY in full-year 2024, backed by accelerated private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates.
February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November.
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go
February 26, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
January new home sales at 657k are a little lower than expected though the surprise is offset by an upward revision to December to 734k from 698k, and January data probably saw some restraint for weather. The near-term outlook is probably negative given limited hopes for Fed easing, but fluid, with
February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global
February 25, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
February consumer confidence at 98.3 from 105.3 is the weakest since June and near the bottom of the recent range. The fall was led by expectations, with a substantial proportion of the population clearly concerned over the outlook under Trump, with a rise in inflation expectations particularly nota
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli