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September 04, 2026
Canada August Employment - Fall corrective, but tariff risks ahead
September 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 41.7k decline is much weaker than expected though the fall can be seen as corrective from three straight healthy gains. The unemployment rate was stable at 6.4% though the average hourly wage of permanent employees at 2.0% was a significant slowing from 3.0
U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
September 4, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct
U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct
September 03, 2026
U.S. August ISM Services - Mostly positive though employment subdued
September 3, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
August’s ISM services index of 55.4 is the strongest since February and up from 54.1 in July. The strength is consistent with a healthy S and P services PMI, even if the latter was revised down to 56.5 from 56.8.
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
September 3, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
July’s trade deficit of $88.6bn is up from $71.2bn in June and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit if $133.0bn in March 2025, though not quite as wide as expectations generated by advance goods data. Initial claims at 206k from 204k and continued claims at 1.779m from 1.771m are both marg
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
September 3, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
July’s trade deficit of $88.6bn is up from $71.2bn in June and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit if $133.0bn in March 2025, though not quite as wide as expectations generated by advance goods data. Initial claims at 206k from 204k and continued claims at 1.779m from 1.771m are both marg
September 02, 2026
BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike
September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo
BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike
September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo
September 01, 2026
U.S. July JOLTS Job Openings, August ISM Manufacturing - Softer than expected, but not weak
September 1, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest US data is on the weak side of expectations though should not be seen as weak. August’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.6 is down from 55.6 in July though still stronger than every month in the first half of the year. July job openings increased by 89k, but the rise is more than fully off
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
August 31, 2026
UK External Account: The Ugly and the Good
August 31, 2026 11:02 AM UTC
· The UK has seen a ugly persistent worsening of the EU goods trade deficit since leaving the EU in 2020, but two current account trends are good. The UK is helped by a surging services surplus and also a pick-up in investment income from UK portfolios invested overseas. Nevertheless, G
August 28, 2026
U.S. March 2026 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revised Down by a Marginal 79k
August 28, 2026 6:09 PM UTC
The preliminary estimate for the revision to the March 2026 non-farm payroll benchmark was overshadowed by today’s speech from Fed’s Warsh. It turned out to be marginal, a negative revision of 79k, a stark contrast to a 911k downward preliminary estimate for the March 2025 benchmark revision ann
Canada Q2 GDP shows strength in exports and domestic demand
August 28, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP increase of 3.3% annualized is in line with expectations but the breakdown is more positive than we expected with a 3.9% increase in domestic demand. A positive contribution from net exports added 4.4% to GDP but this was more than fully offset by a sharp negative 0f 4.9% from inve
August 27, 2026
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade - Widest post-tariff deficit, Initial and Continued Claims fall
August 27, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
July’s advance goods trade deficit of $118.8bn versus $101.4bn in June is the widest since the record $158.7bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. The deficit has picked up since the Supreme Court ruled against the reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. Initial claims remain low, fallin
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade - Widest post-tariff deficit, Initial and Continued Claims fall
August 27, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
July’s advance goods trade deficit of $118.8bn versus $101.4bn in June is the widest since the record $158.7bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. The deficit has picked up since the Supreme Court ruled against the reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. Initial claims remain low, fallin
ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep
August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio
August 26, 2026
U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations
August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se
U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations
August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se
August 25, 2026
U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail
August 25, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward rev
UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’
August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see
August 21, 2026
U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong
August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However