South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments

March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (

UK GDP Review: More Gloom?

March 13, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers.  Expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were dashed as GDP instead stagnated.  Weakness was broad-based but most evident in private servic

U.S. January trade deficit shows continued volatility, Initial Claims still low, January housing data mixed

March 12, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

A significantly narrower US trade deficit on January of $54.5bn from $72.9bn is positive for Q1 GDP and led by a rise in exports, though the large swings in the deficit remain led by a few volatile items and trend is unclear. Initial claims at 213k from 214k remain low while January housing data is

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

South African Economy Grew by 1.1% in 2025 Supported by Stronger Agriculture, Trade and Finance Activities

March 10, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth figures on March 10. Following a revised 0.3% q/q expansion in Q3, the economy grew by 0.4% q/q (0.8% y/y) in Q4. For the full year, the economy expanded by 1.1%—its fastest pace in three years—supporte

U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Stronger than expected, trend fairly flat

March 10, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

February existing home sales with a 1.7% increase to 4.09m are stronger than expected and while the rise does not fully erase January’s decline, that drop has been revised to -5.9% from -8.4% making the net gain well above expectations.

U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat

March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC

February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning

U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Some inflationary risk visible in Q4 Productivity and Costs report

March 5, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Initial claims are unchanged at 213k, a recent bout of bad weather having no significant impact, contrasting late January when a spell of bad weather did coincide with a rise in initial claims. Q4 productivity data is solid but this is not eliminating inflationary pressures.

Inflation Edged Up to 31.5% y/y in February as Monthly Pressures Persist

March 3, 2026 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced February inflation figures on March 3.  After hitting 30.7% annually in January, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 31.5% in February due to rising food, transportation and housing prices. Our average inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 2

EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return

March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%

Turkish Economy Grew by 3.6% y/y in 2025

March 2, 2026 9:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth for 2025 on March 2. Turkish economy expanded by 3.6% y/y in 2025 (3.4% y/y in Q4), underpinned by domestic demand while the main drag came from net trade as annual exports of goods and services declined

U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - January surge largely sustained, prices bounce

March 2, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

February’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.4 is only marginally down from January’s 54.6 which was the highest August 2022. We now have two straight clearly positive numbers to follow two straight negatives, a sign that manufacturing activity is picking up in early 2026.

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

U.S. Initial Claims at a low level between two bouts of bad weather

February 26, 2026 1:45 PM UTC

Initial claims at 212k are up from 208k in the preceding week (the latter revised up from 206k) but remain low and below the preceding two weeks that were probably lifted by bad weather. Bad weather may lift next week’s data, but the underlying picture looks quite healthy.