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April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix
April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC
March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.
April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%
April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall
April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC
Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400
April 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
April’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.1 was weak, but less so than February’s -20.0. However looking at the details weakness in 6-month expectations and strength in prices shows tariffs are doing some damage.
April 15, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
Policy-making is fraught with difficult decision making at the best of times. But at present in the UK, such decisions are made all the more problematic given inconsistencies, if not conflicts, in the data backdrop, thereby making any reading of the economy all the more subjective. Is employment
April 14, 2025 3:10 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the 1-year inflation view at 3.58% from 3.13%, reaching its highest since September 2023. However continued with the 3 and 5 year views still well anchored the Fed should feel relief at this data.
April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
April 11, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.
April 11, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
March CPI in Brazil rose 0.6%, above expectations, pushing the annual rate to 5.5%. Broad-based price increases, especially in food, signal persistent inflation pressures. Core inflation, notably in services, is well above the BCB’s target, and external volatility adds risk. With activity and cred
April 11, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
March PPI, like the CPI and February’s PPI, is surprisingly subdued at -0.4% overall, -0.1% ex food and energy with a modest 0.1% increase ex food, energy and trade. There is some sign of stronger inflation in core goods, but this outweighed by easing pressures in services, food and energy.
April 11, 2025 6:40 AM UTC
UK data can be erratic, but the hugely unexpected surge in February GDP numbers (Figure 1) looks hard to fathom. A 0.5% m/m jump suggests the economy grew by an annualized 6%-plus in the month. This is hard to square against the message from surveys and other data such as that for the labor mark
April 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
March CPI comes as a pleasant surprise, a 0.1% decline overall led by an expected dip in gasoline, but the 0.1% rise ex food and energy is well below consensus and recent trend and suggests the inflationary pressures entering the trade war are lower than was previously thought. Initial claims, up 4k
April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC
Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase
April 8, 2025 6:44 PM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has resumed raising the policy rate due to persistent inflation concerns, despite expectations of credit deceleration. In contrast, credit has accelerated in recent months, indicating that the credit channel through monetary policy may be compromised, increasing disi
April 7, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey is weaker, though probably not by enough to shock the Bank of Canada. The survey was conducted in February, when tariffs were a worry but not yet a reality.
April 4, 2025 6:28 PM UTC
Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent
April 4, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.
April 4, 2025 1:01 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera
April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet
April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont
April 3, 2025 2:24 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.
April 3, 2025 1:13 PM UTC
Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.
April 2, 2025 12:32 PM UTC
ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll
April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro
April 1, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
Largely as expected, there was more supportive news in the March flash HICP numbers (Figure 1), with the headline down a notch and core down 0.2 ppt (the former to 2.2% and hence the lowest since last autumn). Perhaps more notably services inflation slowed more clearly, dropping 0.3 ppt to 3.4%, a
March 31, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there had been signs that the downtrend was flattening out but this changed somewhat in February and again in the March preliminary numbers. Indeed, HICP inflation fell back from January’s 2.8% to a 3-mth low of 2.6% last month and then to 2.3% in Ma
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa
March 27, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
The advance goods trade deficit of $147.9bn in February, while down from January’s record $155.6bn remains very high and suggests a sharp negative from net exports in Q1 GDP, while the inventory offset, +0.3% for wholesale and +0.1% for retail is modest. Initial claims remain low at 224k, while Q4
March 26, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals. They may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for the core to 3.5%. This came in spite of higher alcohol duties and no dro
March 25, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.
March 24, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing slipping back below neutral to 49.8 from 52.7, a sign that tariff concerns are having a negative impact, but services, less sensitive to tariffs, improved at 54.3 from 51.6.
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March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in
March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC
To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation. Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol
March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t
March 18, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
February industrial production has seen a stronger than expected 0.7% rise overall with an even more impressive 0.9% rise in manufacturing. Manufacturing ex autos was less impressive up by 0.3%, though this still means three straight gains.
March 18, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
February housing starts are stronger than expected with a rise of 11.2% to 1501k though this needs to be seen alongside a weather-induced 11.5% decline in January. Permits with a 1.2% decline to 1456k are in line with expectations and show a third straight modest decline.
March 17, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February retail sales with a gain of 0.2% overall is unimpressive, particularly with January revised down to -1.2% from -0.9% while gains of 0.3% ex auto and 0.5% ex auto and gas fail to reverse respective January decline of 0.6% and 0.8%. However the control group, which contributes to GDP, with a
March 14, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
March’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 57.9 from 64.7 is the weakest since November 2022 with the fall led by future expectations. Consumers are particularly worried about inflation, with the 1-year view up to 4.9% from 4.3% and the more closely watched 5-10 year view at 3.9% from 3.5%.
March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi
March 13, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
February PPI is surprisingly subdued at unchanged overall with an even softer 0.1% decline ex food and energy. Much of the surprise comes from trade prices with ex food, energy and trade up by 0.2%, but even this is moderate. Initial claims at 220k from 222k suggest the labor market remains healthy.