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May 23, 2025

U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April

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Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway.  Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals.  ECB wage tracker and

May 22, 2025

U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Unexpected dip, subdued outlook
Paying Article

May 22, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

April existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.5% fall to 4.00m which contrasts a strong 6.1% rise in March pending home sales which are designed to predict existing home sales. However the outlook for the housing sector looks quite subdued overall.

U.S. May S&P PMIs - Gains follow reduction in tariffs on China
Paying Article

May 22, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

May’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly improved, both manufacturing and services at 52.3, up from 50.2 and 50.8 respectively in April. The gains may reflect reduced trade risks after the cut in tariffs on China.
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U.S. Initial Claims slip, trend moving up but only slowly
Paying Article

May 22, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims have seen a modest decline to 227k from 229k in the latest week, the survey week for May’s non-farm payroll. Trend is creeping higher but consistent with only a marginal slowing in the labor market, with no recessionary signal.

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Eurozone: Services Offer Sobering News
Freemium Article

May 22, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

The May flash composite PMI data may have fallen into apparent contraction territory as the index dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in five months and thereby signalling a reduction, albeit a marginal one.  We do not take much issue whether

May 21, 2025

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As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April
Paying Article

May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy

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UK CPI Review (May 21): How Durable a Surge?
Paying Article

May 21, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

The UK and the rest of the DM world are now decoupling, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK is seeing a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below, targets – although some measures if underling EZ inflation have started to edg

May 20, 2025

RBA Review: Recognize Inflation Moderates and Upside Risk
Freemium Article

May 20, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 20th cut rates to 3.85% and stated cautious in forward guidance

May 16, 2025

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Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab

U.S. May Preliminary Michigan CSI - Is the fall a sign that prices are now accelerating?
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

May’s Preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.8 is, despite the equity recovery, surprisingly weaker than April’s final of 52.2, though the 50.8 reading matches exactly the preliminary May outcome, though most responses were received before the US-China trade de-escalation. This could be a sign that afte

U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Single family slippage suggests trend starting to slip
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

April housing starts are in line with expectations, up 1.6% to 1361k, but permits are weaker than expected, down 4.7% to 1412k. With the starts rise fully due to the volatile multiples sector and the permits fall broad based this is a weaker than expected report.

May 15, 2025

U.S. May NAHB Homebuilders Index - Decline likely due to uncertainty
Paying Article

May 15, 2025 2:37 PM UTC

May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index with a decline to 34, its weakest since November 2023, comes as something of a surprise, resuming a downtrend after April corrected declines seen in February and March.

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U.S. April PPI - Weak month, strong revisions, strong core goods, weak services
Paying Article

May 15, 2025 2:25 PM UTC

April’s PPI, even more so than April’s CPI, was surprisingly soft, falling by 0.5% overall, 0.4% ex food and energy and by 0.1% ex food, energy and trade.  However March PPI saw sharp upward revisions, overall to unchanged from -0.4%, ex food and energy to a 0.4% rise from -0.1%, and ex food, e

U.S. April Industrial Production - Manufacturing slips but May surveys suggest some resilience
Paying Article

May 15, 2025 1:38 PM UTC

April industrial production was unchanged but manufacturing output saw a weak month, falling by 0.4%, to reverse a March increase. Signals from manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed and Empire State for May however, released shortly before, are on balance less negative.

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U.S. April Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Claims - Only limited signs of slowing
Freemium Article

May 15, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

April retail sales and weekly initial claims are in line with expectations, and consistent with a moderate slowing in the economy, but with no recessionary signals. It is however too early for the full impact of tariffs to be seen, particularly with the impact of tariffs on prices so far limited.

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UK GDP Review: Q1 GDP Jumps But Erratic and Overstating Activity
Paying Article

May 15, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

National account data delivered yet another upside surprise both in terms of the latest monthly figure and also the associated Q1 update.  Indeed, February GDP, rather than consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, instead grew by 0.2% (Figure 1), a fifth successive non-negati

May 13, 2025

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U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far
Freemium Article

May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i

May 12, 2025

U.S. Budget Surplus rises in April, Tariffs only a modest proportion of that
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 6:36 PM UTC

April saw a strong budget surplus of $258,4bn, up from $208.5bn in April 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1048.7bn is up from $855.2bn in the seven months to April 2024, and the 12 month average has been above $2trillion for seven straight months. The deficit on FY 2024 was $1

May 09, 2025

Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.

May 08, 2025

U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.

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Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak
Freemium Article

May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides.  The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last

May 06, 2025

US March trade deficit surges as service export weakness adds to pre-tariff strength in goods imports
Paying Article

May 6, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

March’s record US trade deficit of $140.5bn is even higher than expected though consistent with the assumptions of the Q1 GDP report. Exports surged by 4.4% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement while exports rose by a marginal 0.2%.

May 05, 2025

U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a slowing trend
Paying Article

May 5, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

April’s ISM services index of 51.6 has corrected higher from March’s 50.8 though remains quite subdued and is weaker than each index from September through February. Prices paid accelerated, to 65.1 from 60.9, reaching their highest since January 2023.

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Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through
Freemium Article

May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre