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May 09, 2025
Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.
Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak
May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC
Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides. The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last
May 06, 2025
US March trade deficit surges as service export weakness adds to pre-tariff strength in goods imports
May 6, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
March’s record US trade deficit of $140.5bn is even higher than expected though consistent with the assumptions of the Q1 GDP report. Exports surged by 4.4% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement while exports rose by a marginal 0.2%.
May 05, 2025
U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a slowing trend
May 5, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 51.6 has corrected higher from March’s 50.8 though remains quite subdued and is weaker than each index from September through February. Prices paid accelerated, to 65.1 from 60.9, reaching their highest since January 2023.
Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through
May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre
May 02, 2025
U.S. April Employment - Suggests economy where Fed wants it, but can it persist?
May 2, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll with a 177k increase is on the firm side of expectations and shows the labor market remained solid in early April, but the upside surprise is offset by 58k in net downward revisions. Unemployment was unchanged at 4.2% as expected but a below consensus 0.2% rise in average
EZ HICP Review: Headline Fails to Fall as Services Inflation Rises on Easter Effect?
May 2, 2025 9:46 AM UTC
EZ HICP inflation failed to fall back toward the 2% target in flash April data, instead staying at 2.2%. More notably, services inflation jumped 0.4 ppt, very probably due to the impact of the timing of Easter affecting airfares and holiday costs. As was the case when this Easter effect last happe
May 01, 2025
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Headlines provide some relief, but picture remains worrying
May 1, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 has held up better than expected, and most regional Fed surveys, falling only marginally from March’s 49.0. Prices paid have also shown less response to the increased tariffs than generally feared, with only a marginal gain to 69.8 from 69.4.
U.S. Initial Claims bounce a warning rather than a clear change of trend
May 1, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims and continued claims have both seen a bounce in the latest week, the former to 241kk from 223k and the latter to 1916k from 1833k. While there may be some seasonal adjustment issues from Easter, the data serves as a tentative warning that the labor market may be starting to lose momen
April 30, 2025
Mexico’s GDP Review: Saved from the Technical Recession, but Growth Slows
April 30, 2025 2:52 PM UTC
Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q1 2025 with 0.2% GDP growth, driven by a volatile rebound in agriculture. However, industrial output contracted and services stagnated, highlighting a broader economic slowdown. Uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs and tight monetary and fiscal po
U.S. March Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices confirm Q1 totals, March Pending Home Sales rebound
April 30, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending report is largely old news with Q1 totals visible in the GDP report. Despite the upside surprise in the Q1 core PCE price index, March’s data was even softer than expected at unchanged, with the upside surprise in Q1 coming from an upward revision to February
U.S. Q1 GDP dips, Imports surge goes into inventories and business investment
April 30, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
The 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP is in line with expectations that were downgraded from a marginal increase after yesterday’s sharp rise in March’s advance goods trade deficit. A 3.5% rise in the core PCE price index is stronger than expected. While the Q1 data does not tell us very much about Q2, the
U.S. April ADP Employment - Weak but detail looks unlikely to be matched in non-farm payroll
April 30, 2025 12:26 PM UTC
ADP’s April estimate of private sector employment growth of 62k is a significant slowing from recent trend, though the ADP track record as a non-farm payroll indicator leaves us cautious over revising our payroll call of 145k, 135k private sector. Initial claims still suggest little labor market w
April 29, 2025
U.S. April Consumer Confidence, March JOLTS Job Openings - Future weakness signalled
April 29, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
The latest data suggest upcoming weakness in the US economy. March consumer confidence at 86.0 from 93.9 continues its recent slide with the drop being led by future expectations, while March’s JOLTS report on job openings has seen a steeper than expected drop of 288k to 7192k, with February revis
U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Deficit - Increases risk of negative Q1 GDP
April 29, 2025 12:56 PM UTC
March’s advance goods trade deficit of $162.0bn from $147.8bn in February is significantly wider than expected as well as a record high and adds to the risk of a negative Q1 GDP outcome. Exports rose by a respectable 1.2%, but imports surged by 5.0% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
April 28, 2025
Argentina: Activity Continues Growing
April 28, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy grew 2.3% in February and 6% year-on-year, showing continued short-term recovery driven by financial and mining sectors. However, rising imports and an overvalued exchange rate are straining reserves, despite IMF support. While agricultural exports may ease pressure mid-year, s
April 25, 2025
April 24, 2025
U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February bounce more than fully earsed
April 24, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
March existing home sales with a 5.9% fall to 4.02m are the weakest since September and contrast a strong month from new home sales, leaving the overall housing picture unclear. The data does follow weakness in recent pending home sales data and other survey evidence.
April 23, 2025
Brazil: Fiscal Result Improves but Structural Changes Remains in Doubt
April 23, 2025 5:57 PM UTC
Brazil’s fiscal data shows slight improvement, with a 0.1% primary deficit by February and a 2024 deficit in line with targets, excluding flood aid. The 2025 goal is a 0% deficit, but structural issues remain. Recent gains stem from reduced court-ordered payments and delayed hiring. However, risin
U.S. March New Home Sales - Bounce probably assisted by weather, no clear trend
April 23, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
March new home sales at 724k are up by 7.4% and the highest since April 2024. The strength outperforms most recent housing sector surveys though there is still little clear direction to trend. Improved weather is probably the main reason for the monthly bounce.
U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing picks up but Services slip
April 23, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
April’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing showing an unexpected improvement to 50.7 from 50.2 but services slipping significantly to 51.4 from 54.4. This contrasts March data when manufacturing slipped but services increased, suggesting not too much should be read into the mon
South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March
April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): The Calm Before the Storm that Surveys May Be Flagging?
April 23, 2025 9:18 AM UTC
Continuing a series of upside surprises, EZ GDP overshot both consensus and ECB expectations in Q4), albeit only after what was a cumulative 0.2 ppt upward revisions compared to the flash. We see a further rise in Q1 data (Figure 1), partly reflecting recent m/m increases in both manufacturing and s