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June 05, 2026
Canada May Employment - Recent weakness largely erased, wages correct lower
June 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
Canada’s May employment report keeps the series volatile, with a strong 87.8k bounce reducing unemployment to a four month low of 6.6%, from April’s 6-month high of 6.9%. This should ease any Bank of Canada worries over the weak Q1 GDP data which saw a second straight, if marginal, decline. The
Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices
June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5. After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will
U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality
June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message. In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was
June 04, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims up in holiday week, Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both revised down
June 4, 2026 12:56 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k in the week to May 30 are up from 212k and the highest since February 7, though the data should be treated with some caution given that the week included the Memorial Day holiday, which can cause seasonal adjustment difficulties.
June 03, 2026
U.S. May ADP Employment - Trend picking up
June 3, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
May’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 122k is in line with market exactions if not quite as strong as weekly ADP data for the preceding week had been implying. Still, it maintains a recent improvement in trend and like last week’s was, is the strongest increase since January 2
June 02, 2026
U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so
June 2, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing
EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?
June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC
Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking. As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe
June 01, 2026
U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Supported by AI, inflationary pressures pause
June 1, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
May’s ISM manufacturing index at 54.0 is stronger than expected, up from 52.7 in April and the highest since May 2022. This is consistent with several other manufacturing surveys, notably the S and P national survey, and suggests the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, most likely fueled by
Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1
June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted
May 29, 2026
Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2
May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint
U.S. April Advance Goods Trade - Positive for Q2 GDP, but inventories may provide some offset
May 29, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
April’s advance US trade deficit of $82.4bn is narrower than expected and down from $$85.3bn in March. Exports rose by 4.0% while imports rose by 1.9%. Earlier price data had shown gains of 3.3% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
May 28, 2026
U.S. April New Home Sales - A below trend month
May 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April new home sales with a 6.2% decline to 622k are on the weak side of trend which is showing signs of losing momentum, if not dramatically yet. That May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index picked up from a weak April cautions against reading too much into this data.
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable
May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.
May 27, 2026
May 26, 2026
U.S. May Consumer Confidence - Holding up better than Michigan CSI
May 26, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index at 93.1 is down from April’s 93.8 but only because April was revised up from 92.8. May’s index is the first decline since January. The index is holding up better than the record low Michigan CSI. The Conference Board index tends to be more sensi
May 22, 2026
U.S. Final May Michigan CSI - Unusually large downward revision as inflation expectations accelerate
May 22, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
The final May Michigan CSI of 44.8 is an unusually sharp downward revision from the preliminary 48.2 and down further from April’s 49.8 as well as a fresh record low. It appears that consumer patience over finding a resolution to the Middle East conflict is exhausted.
May 21, 2026
U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services still subdued
May 21, 2026 1:59 PM UTC
May’s preliminary S and P PMIs show increasing strength in manufacturing at 55.3 from an already significantly improved 54.5 in April, reaching its highest since May 2022. Services at 50.9 are however marginally softer from April’s 51.0, but still holding above March’s dip below neutral to 49.
U.S. Initial Claims, May Philly Fed, April Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed data gives no clear signals of strength or weakness
May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed, initial claims in line with expectations and showing signs of stabilizing at a still low level. May’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey is weaker than expected but with positive 6-month expectations, both on activity and prices. April housing starts and permits are on the
Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs
May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2
May 20, 2026
South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April
May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl
UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?
May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may
May 19, 2026
ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?
May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC
When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism. Most important of course is the economic damage that chan