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December 09, 2025
U.S. September/October JOLTS report - Mostly a resilient message
December 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
The Labor Dep’t has released the JOLTS report on labor turnover for both September and October, with the September data being partial but the October release surveyed as originally planned. The picture is on the strong side of expectations and the pre-shutdown trend.
U.S. November NFIB survey shows significant acceleration in selling prices
December 9, 2025 1:11 PM UTC
The most notable feature of November’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism was a sharp rise in the proportion reporting higher selling prices, to 34% from 21%, reaching the highest level since March 2023. Why such as sharp bounce has some this month is difficult to explain but it could be that
December 05, 2025
U.S. September Core PCE Prices consistent with CPI, December Michigan CSI sees inflation expectations fall
December 5, 2025 3:27 PM UTC
September PCE prices at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy are in line with expectations with the respective gains before rounding at 0.269% and 0.198%. December’s Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations easing, which will provide some comfort to the Fed.
Canada November Employment - Third straight strong rise, unemployment lowest since July 2024
December 5, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
Canada’s November employment report has surprised on the upside for a third straight month, rising by 53.6k, and this time with a sharp fall in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.9%. While the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be thinking about tightening yet, the data adds to hopes generated by a 2.6% annua
December 04, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims fell sharply in Thanksgiving week, other labor market signals mixed
December 4, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
Weekly initial claims at 191k from 218k are exceptionally low but there may be some seasonal adjustment issues with Thanksgiving. Unadjusted however initial claims also fell, by 49k to 197k. While this fall in initial claims may be overstated it is the fourth straight decline.
December 03, 2025
U.S. November ISM Services - Rise led by delivery times
December 3, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
November’s ISM services index has marginally extended an October bounce, and at 52.6 from 52.4 is at its highest since February. Details are less impressive but the latest two months suggest the economy is still expanding, if moderately, and worries over tariffs, which may have contributed to a di
U.S. September Industrial Production - Trend marginally positive
December 3, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
September industrial production was in line with expectations with a marginal rise of 0.1%, with manufacturing unchanged. Mining was also unchanged with the rise in industrial production coming from a 1.1% upward correction from a 3.0% August decline in weather-sensitive utilities.
Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations
December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin
U.S. November ADP Employment leaves trend looking fairly flat
December 3, 2025 1:38 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate of private sector employment of -32k does not quite reverse a 47k increase in October (revised from 42k) but leaves trend looking fairly flat. The data is consistent with negative signals from weekly ADP employment data released a week ago and also the finding of the latest
December 02, 2025
South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022
December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Problematic?
December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo
December 01, 2025
U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Weaker than expected but still in a tight range
December 1, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.2 from 48.7 is weaker than expected and the signals of most if not all regional surveys, if not dramatically so. The index is the weakest since July but remains in a fairly tight modestly negative range, since moving above neutral in January and February.
Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments
December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.
November 28, 2025
Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative
November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak
November 26, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims, September Durable Goods Orders - trends healthy
November 26, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
The latest set of US data is on the strong side of expectations, with initial claims at 216k from 222k the lowest since April. September durable goods orders are on consensus with a 0.5% increase but the ex-transport rise of 0.6% is on the firm side and trend is improving.
November 25, 2025
U.S. November Consumer Confidence slides but October pending home sales stronger
November 25, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October is the weakest since April when tariff concerns were at their peak. October pending home sales however with a 1.9% increase sustain recent signs of a revival in the housing market as Fed easing resumes.
U.S. September Retail Sales lose momentum, PPI strong in goods but weak in services
November 25, 2025 2:08 PM UTC
September retail sales with a rise of 0.2% are weaker than expected and likely to be negative in real terms, given September gains in CPI goods prices, suggesting momentum in consumer spending is starting to fade with employment growth. September’s PPI with a rise of 0.3% overall met expectations
November 21, 2025
U.S. November S&P PMIs - Still healthy
November 21, 2025 3:01 PM UTC
November’s preliminary S and P PMIs both remain at healthy levels, manufacturing modestly slower at 51.9 from 52.5 but still comfortably positive, while services have unexpectedly seen a modest increase to 55.0 from 54.8. The composite increased to 54.8 from 54.6.
November 20, 2025
U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Starting to gain momentum
November 20, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
A 1.2% rise in October existing home sales is in line with other private sector surveys (NAHB, MBA and pending home sales) suggesting some revival in the housing market as the Fed resumes easing. With the scale of future easing uncertain the housing sector outlook is too.
U.S. Initial Claims stable but Continued Claims moving higher
November 20, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
Today we saw the non-farm payroll for September, as well as eight weeks of initial claims that take us to the survey week for November’s non-farm payroll. Initial claims remain low, though continued claims have been rising in recent weeks, hinting at downside risks for non-farm payrolls in October
U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker
November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov
November 19, 2025
South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024
November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta