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October 07, 2024
UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?
October 7, 2024 9:17 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only one of
October 04, 2024
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC
The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts. This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends. The Decem
October 03, 2024
U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC
Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi
October 02, 2024
U.S. September ADP Employment - Stronger increase consistent with lower initial claims
October 2, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate for private sector employment growth of 143k is on the firm side of expectations and stronger than in July or August. This follows lower initial claims data in September. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we continue to expect a similar 150k rise in priva
October 01, 2024
U.S. August JOLTS report sees Job Openings rebound, ISM Manufacturing unchanged with mixed detail
October 1, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
August’s JOLTS report shows quite a sharp rise in job openings, by 329k to 8.04m, more than fully erasing a 199k decline in July but not June’s 320k drop. Trend remains negative, but only modestly. September’s ISM manufacturing index is unchanged at 47.2, with mixed detail.
September 27, 2024
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo
Banxico Review: 25bps Cut as Expected, But Not Unanimous
September 27, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
Banxico cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 10.5%, but the decision was not unanimous, with one dissenter favoring a higher rate. Weak domestic growth and softening core CPI suggest further cuts are likely, though caution is needed due to market volatility. Banxico’s minutes will provide more clarity
September 26, 2024
U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Still weak but may be near a base
September 26, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
August pending home sales with a marginal 0.6% increase fell slightly short of expectations following a sharp 5.5% decline in July, though with July’s dip having followed a 4.8% increase in June the trend is probably only marginally negative now.
U.S. GDP revisions, Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders details mostly positive
September 26, 2024 1:08 PM UTC
Initial claims at 218k from 222k have fallen further though last week was revised up from 219k, putting the level at the least since May 18 and suggesting no further weakening of the labor market in September. Unchanged durable goods orders have held up better in August after July’s 9.9% aircraft-
September 25, 2024
U.S. August New Home Sales - Down but resilient after strong July
September 25, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
August new home sales are down by 4.7% to 716k but have held up better than expected after July’s unexpectedly strong outcome, which was revised even higher to 751k from 739k, making July’s reading the highest since February 2022.
September 24, 2024
U.S. September Consumer Confidence - Present situation slides sharply
September 24, 2024 2:37 PM UTC
September consumer confidence contrasts stronger Michigan CSI data with a fall to 98.7 from 105.6 in August (which was revised up from 103.3). The data shows a sharp slide in the present situation with expectations also down as well as a weaker labor market view. Inflation expectations however edged
September 19, 2024
U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Downtrend resumes but may bottom soon
September 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
August existing home sales with a 2.5% decline to 3.86m have resumed a downtrend after a 1.5% July increase. This is consistent with most housing sector survey evidence through August but signals for September are more positive, which Fed easing should assist.
September 18, 2024
U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Hints of improvement
September 18, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
August housing starts and permits are stronger than expected, starts up 9.6% to 1356k and permits up 4.9% to 1475k. The gains more than fully reverse respective July declines of 6.9% and 3.3% and hint that expectations for Fed easing may be starting to provide some support.
September 17, 2024
U.S. September NAHB Homebuilders Index - Off the low, led by 6-month expectations
September 17, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
September’s rise in the NAHB homebuilders’ index to 41 from 39 is the first increase in the index since March reached 51 and suggests expectations for Fed easing are starting to have an impact.
U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos lead bounce, though revisions negattive
September 17, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
August industrial production with gains of 0.8% overall and 0.9% in manufacturing has surprised clearly on the upside. The gain was led by a rebound in autos from a weak July but manufacturing ex autos saw a 0.3% increase to erase two straight preceding declines.
U.S. August Retail Sales continue to show resilience
September 17, 2024 12:49 PM UTC
August retail sales have held up a little better than expected with a 0.1% increase though this is largely because autos were more resilient than industry data had suggested. Gains of 0.1% ex autos and 0.2% ex autos and gasoline were marginally softer than expected.
September 16, 2024
U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - first positive since November
September 16, 2024 12:48 PM UTC
September’s Empire Sate manufacturing index of 11.5 from -4.7 is the first positive since November 2023 and the strongest since April 2022. The series is volatile and should be read cautiously but argues against recent signs of economic slowing extending into risk of recession.
September 13, 2024
U.S. September Michigan CSI - Higher, including long-term inflation expectation
September 13, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
September’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 69.0 from 67.9 is slightly firmer, with both current conditions and expectations contributing. Inflation expectations are mixed, but a rise in the 5-10 year view outweighs a fall in the 1-year view.
September 12, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: 4.2% only in August
September 12, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 4.2% in August, surpassing market expectations, with Y/Y inflation falling to 236% from 260%. Public service tariff adjustments, particularly in Transport and Housing, were key inflation drivers. Food prices increased 3.5%, while goods CPI grew 3.2%, suggesting a slowing infla
September 11, 2024
Brazil CPI Review: Drop on Electricity Prices Warrants Stability in August
September 11, 2024 10:31 PM UTC
In August, Brazil’s CPI remained stable at 0% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.2% from 4.5% in July. This stability was driven by declines in the Housing group and food prices. Education and household expenditures increased by 0.7%, while the Transport group stayed unch
Preview: Due September 12 - U.S. August PPI - In line with a subdued underlying trend
September 11, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in August PPI, matching the outcome of July, while the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade both increase by 0.2%, all suggesting a subdued underlying picture.
U.S. August CPI - Core at a four month high led by shelter and air fares
September 11, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
August core CPI has disappointed to the upside with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy with the rise being 0.28% before rounding, a four month high. Overall CPI rose by 0.2% as expected, and by 0.19% before rounding. The data is likely to ensure that the FOMC eases by only 25bps in September. Shelter an
UK GDP Review: More Mixed Messages Give BoE Food for Thought
September 11, 2024 6:34 AM UTC
Surprising to the downside, the economy failed to show more positive signs with the July GDP data. Indeed, GDP was flat in m/m terms for the second successive month, compared to a 0.2% m/m rise widely envisaged. Thus the data still show showing volatility, as GDP growth has been positive in only
September 10, 2024
Mexico CPI Review: 0% Inflation in August as Expected
September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati
September 06, 2024
Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem
U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower
Eurozone: Sobering Services and Domestic Demand News is Food for ECB Doves
September 6, 2024 10:53 AM UTC
The fact that EZ growth was revised down a notch to 0.2% in Q2 is of little importance – it partly reflects a small recovery in imports that we have been flagging for some time would be a likely break on recorded activity. Over and beyond more signs of slowing wage pressures in Q2 data, more not
September 05, 2024
U.S. August ISM Services - Still showing modest expansion
September 5, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
August’s ISM services index at 51.5 is almost unchanged from July’s 51.4 and implies an economy continuing to expand at a modest pace. Employment at 50.2 is down from July’s 51.1, but in being above the neutral 50 remains stronger than the readings seen from February through June.
U.S. August ADP Employment - Losing momentum, but initial claims suggest a healthy labor market
September 5, 2024 12:46 PM UTC
ADP’s August estimate for private sector employment growth of 99k is below expectations and consistent with a continued slowing of the labor market, with the gain being the slowest since January 2021. While the data suggests some downside risk to non-farm payrolls, our private sector payrolls call
September 04, 2024
U.S. July JOLTS report on Job Openings - Gradual slowing in trend continues
September 4, 2024 2:27 PM UTC
July’s JOLTS report is weaker than expected with job openings down by 237k to 7.673m, the lowest level since January 2021, though the monthly decline is not exceptional and the trend continues to be gradually slowing at a similar pace to recent months.
U.S. July trade deficit increases on lower auto exports, Canada moves into surplus on lower auto imports
September 4, 2024 12:55 PM UTC
July’s US trade deficit of $78.8bn is up from $73.0bn in June and the widest since June 2022, restoring a deteriorating trend after a correction lower in the deficit in June, though July’s deficit is not quite as wide as expected. July’s deficit was inflated by a weak month from auto exports,
September 03, 2024
Brazil: GDP Surprises in Q2, Growing 1.4% (q/q)
September 3, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
Brazil's Q2 GDP grew 1.4% (q/q), surpassing expectations, driven by strong industrial growth and robust internal demand. Investment increased by 2.1%, while external demand lagged due to rising imports. Agriculture declined due to floods, but services grew steadily. With internal demand as the key g
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August
September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit
September 02, 2024
Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY
September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de