Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold

June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC

Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period.  Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate.  We would suspect

U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits, Weekly Initial Claims - Trends weakening

June 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

May housing starts with a 9.8% decline to 1256k are well below expectations and the weakest since June 2020 through a 2.0% fall in permits, also below consensus, suggests a fairly moderate weakening in trend. Initial claims at 245k from 250k and continued claims at .945m from 1.951m are slightly low

South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do

UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Falls Clearly

June 18, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

As for the UK, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what would happen after the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises fell due, albeit now offset somewhat by a fall in petrol prices.  The result was a notch higher t

U.S. May Retail Sales - Two straight declines as confidence slides

June 17, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

May retail sales with a 0.9% decline are slightly weaker than expected. The ex auto data at -0.3% and ex auto and gas at -0.1% are negative too, though the control group which contributes to GDP was resilient with a 0.4% rise. 

U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Weak but 6-month expectations bounce

June 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

June's Empire State manufacturing index at -16.0 from -9.2 suggests increasing weakness, though the series can be erratic, as noted by a -20.0 reading in March and a positive 20.2 in November 2024, neither of which was sustained. Six month expectations saw a significant bounce, to 21.2 from -2.0. 

Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

U.S. June Preliminary Michigan CSI - Back to levels seen before the reciprocal tariff announcement

June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.

Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY

June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i

U.S. May PPI - Soft but recent revisions have been large, initial claims picking up

June 12, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

May’s PPI, matching May’s CPI, has come in softer than expected at 0.1% and in both the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, though the downside surprise is partially offset by upward revisions to April, overall and ex food and energy both to -0.2% from -0.5% and -0.4% r

UK GDP Review: GDP Overstating Activity Less Clearly But Looking Weaker?

June 12, 2025 6:54 AM UTC

After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP could be expected for the April data, especially as Q1 numbers may have been boosted by added production destined for the U.S in anticipation of tariffs.  In addition, real estate activity seems to have dropped after the raisin

U.S. Budget Deficit falls in May, Tariffs explaining over half of the narrowing

June 11, 2025 6:28 PM UTC

May saw a budget deficit of $316bn, down from $347.1bn in May 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1364.7bn is up from $1202.3bn in the eight months to May 2024. The 12-month average has however slipped below $2trillion for the first time in the current fiscal year. The deficit in

U.S. May CPI - Little tariff pass-through, with inflationary pressures elsewhere fading

June 11, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

May CPI has surprised significantly to the downside, up only 0.1% both headline and core, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.08% and 0.13%. The data is subdued across the board, with commodities ex food and energy unchanged despite tariffs and services ex energy on the low side of tre

U.S. May NFIB survey suggests tariff worries are easing

June 10, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

May’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.8 from 95.8 corrected from four straight declines brought about by tariff concerns, the reversal of the tariff escalation with China probably significant. These straight declines from December’s 105.1 failed to fully reverse the post-election bou

New York Fed survey shows slower U.S. inflation expectations in May

June 9, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations shows slippage in inflation expectations from what were elevated near term views in April, while the 5-year view is the lowest since January 2024. This hints that consumers have not seen sharp price hikes in May, reducing upside risks to the C

U.S. May Employment - Resilient picture suggests no urgency for Fed easing

June 6, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

May’s non-farm payroll with a 139k increase, is on the firm side of expectations, particularly after the ADP report, and suggests the economy is not on the cusp of recession yet. Revisions were negative at 95k but leave a stable-looking picture, while average hourly earnings were above trend with

Eurozone: The Tail Wagging the Dog?

June 6, 2025 10:26 AM UTC

Given what now looks to have been an outstanding first quarter, the ECB’s assertion at this month’s Council press conference that it is a good position to navigate the uncertain conditions looks more tenable.  After all, GDP jumped 0.6%, twice the previous estimate.  But this is no indicator o

U.S. May ISM Services - Marginally below neutral

June 4, 2025 2:30 PM UTC

May’s ISM services index of 49.9 from 50.8 unexpectedly weakened, moving marginally below neutral for the first time since a far from distant June 2024. This contrasted a rise in the S and P services PMI to an upwardly revised 53.7, from a 52.3 preliminary and 50.8 in April. Most regional service