View:
November 10, 2026
U.S. October Median CPI up 3.7% annualized, confirming CPI strength was broad based
November 10, 2026 8:19 PM UTC
Emphasizing the disappointing nature of the October CPI, the 0.3% rise in the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI is consistent with the core CPI released earlier and the annualized pace of 3.7% is a 5-month high.
U.S. October CPI - 50bps now set to be debated at December FOMC
November 10, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
October CPI has come in stronger than expected at 0.4% overall with a third straight 0.3% rise in the core rate ex food and energy. Earlier today Fed’s Waller suggested that a 0.3% core increase would justify a 50bps tightening in December. That looks sure to be debated, particularly after October
U.S. October CPI - 50bps now set to be debated at December FOMC
November 10, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
October CPI has come in stronger than expected at 0.4% overall with a third straight 0.3% rise in the core rate ex food and energy. Earlier today Fed’s Waller suggested that a 0.3% core increase would justify a 50bps tightening in December. That looks sure to be debated, particularly after October
November 09, 2026
UK Q3 GDP Preview - Strong Growth Expected in Q3 But Thereafter?
November 9, 2026 7:09 PM UTC
Despite higher energy costs, growing uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, the UK economy likely continued to grow rapidly in Q3. We expect quarter on quarter growth to have increased by 0.7%, in line with estimates produced by the BoE in last week’s Monetary Policy Report (see Figure 1).
UK Q3 GDP Preview - Strong Growth Expected in Q3 But Thereafter?
November 9, 2026 7:09 PM UTC
Despite higher energy costs, growing uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, the UK economy likely continued to grow rapidly in Q3. We expect quarter on quarter growth to have increased by 0.7%, in line with estimates produced by the BoE in last week’s Monetary Policy Report (see Figure 1).
November 06, 2026
Canada October Employment - Even weaker outside public sector correction
November 6, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
Canada’s 4.7k decline in October employment is not as sharp as in the two preceding months but looks worse in the details. September’s 68.3k decline was fully explained by a 70k decline in the public sector. October’s decline came despite a 49.6k rebound in the public sector.
U.S. October Employment - Unambiguously strong
November 6, 2026 1:56 PM UTC
October’s non-farm payroll at 165k overall, 159k private, with unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and even average hourly earnings on the strong side with a 0.4% increase, is strong across the board and makes a December Fed tightening highly likely, though we will also receive November’s non-f
U.S. October Employment - Unambiguously strong
November 6, 2026 1:56 PM UTC
October’s non-farm payroll at 165k overall, 159k private, with unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and even average hourly earnings on the strong side with a 0.4% increase, is strong across the board and makes a December Fed tightening highly likely, though we will also receive November’s non-f
November 05, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims very low, Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs strong
November 5, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
Initial claims at 189k from 195kare back at the July 18 low. Continued claims did correct higher by 23k 1.718m after a preceding 27k decline but the net message is still for a very tight labor market. The latest data were however surveyed after October’s non-farm payroll was.
November 04, 2026
U.S. September trade deficit narrows marginally but wider in real terms
November 4, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
September’s trade deficit of $105.0bn from $105.9bn surprisingly narrowed marginally from August despite a wider advance goods deficit released earlier. Still, the data confirms a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in Q3.
U.S. October ADP Employment - Hints at upside payroll risk
November 4, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
October’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 86k is on the firm side of expectations and exactly matches September’s (revised from 90k) so the data is presumably reasonably representative of trend. The number is stronger than our payroll forecast of 45k private, 50k overall.
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
November 03, 2026
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:02 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
November 02, 2026
EZ CPI Preview - Another Piece of the Puzzle Before December's Hike
November 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect headline annual inflation to hit 4% in October as the impact of the energy shock continues to filter through. That increase would represent a further uptick from the 3.8% recorded in September and from the 1.9% rate seen just before the start of the Middle East conflict. Preliminary nation
EZ CPI Preview - Another Piece of the Puzzle Before December's Hike
November 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect headline annual inflation to hit 4% in October as the impact of the energy shock continues to filter through. That increase would represent a further uptick from the 3.8% recorded in September and from the 1.9% rate seen just before the start of the Middle East conflict. Preliminary nation
U.S. October ISM Manufacturing firm, September Construction Spending slips
November 2, 2026 3:15 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index of 55.5 is up from 54.5 in September and 54.6 in August but slightly below July’s 55.6 which was the strongest since May 2022. The data continues to imply a positive manufacturing picture.
October 30, 2026
Eurozone Economy Remains Resilient in Q3 - Headwinds Ahead?
October 30, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
The economy expanded more than expected in Q3, rising 0.4% q/q from 0.6% before, with the Eurozone aggregate benefitting from Ireland’s large and volatile growth rate. Most of the larger member countries experienced weak quarter on quarter growth, with Germany’s economy increasing 0.2%, Italy’
Eurozone Economy Remains Resilient in Q3 - Headwinds Ahead?
October 30, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
The economy expanded more than expected in Q3, rising 0.4% q/q from 0.6% before, with the Eurozone aggregate benefitting from Ireland’s large and volatile growth rate. Most of the larger member countries experienced weak quarter on quarter growth, with Germany’s economy increasing 0.2%, Italy’
October 29, 2026
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire