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October 16, 2025
U.S. Budget Deficit falls in Fiscal Year 2024-25 as tariff revenues pick up
October 16, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
Despite the government shutdown the US Treasury has released budget data for September, the final month of the fiscal year. A monthly surplus of $197.95bn, up from $64.685bn in September 2024, has seen the fiscal year deficit at $1.775 trillion fall below the previous fiscal year’s $1.817 trillion
U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Housing responding to lower mortgage rates
October 16, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
October’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 is up significantly from two months at 32 and the highest level since April, if still quite weak. This suggests recent falls in mortgage rates as the Fed resumes easing are having some impact on the housing market.
U.S. October Philly Fed - Details more encouraging than the weak headline
October 16, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
October’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -12.8 has fallen unexpectedly sharply from the surprisingly strong September reading of 22.3 and is the weakest since April when tariff worries were at their peak. Detail in the report is however more positive.
UK GDP Review: Moving Sideways – At Best
October 16, 2025 6:39 AM UTC
Although the revisions up to July GDP data now confirm a small m/m fall for that month), this was unwound in the August numbers with a 0.1% rise (Figure 1). This put the less volatile three-month rate at 0.3% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer zer
October 15, 2025
U.S. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity rebounds, prices stronger
October 15, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
October’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 10.7 has rebounded from a weak -8.7 in September though remains below August’s level of 11.7. The series is volatile and may not be a useful signal for other surveys. In September, when the Empire State index was weak, the Philly Fed manuf
October 14, 2025
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing More Clearly on Wages
October 14, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
There may be signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly, if not actually indications that the more authoritative payrolls have stopped falling, albeit this largely due to increasing jobs within the health sector. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a
India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December
October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla
October 13, 2025
Tourism and Services Income Helped Turkish Current Account in August
October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an
October 10, 2025
U.S. October Preliminary Michigan CSI - Little changed, still pessimistic
October 10, 2025 7:16 PM UTC
October’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.0 is almost unchanged from September’s final of 55.1, if the weakest outcome since May. Inflation expectations were also little changed, the 1-year view down to 4.6% from 4.7% and the 5-10 year view unchanged at 3.6%.
Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September
October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y
Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October
October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi
Eurozone: Data Disappointments Off the ECB Radar
October 10, 2025 12:35 PM UTC
Although not fully high-profile,and mostly off the radar that the Council focuses on. the last few days have brought a series of data releases that will disappoint the ECB, certainly the hawks. These range from weak services production data, further signs of a loosening in the labor market and mor
October 07, 2025
Canada August trade deficit inflated by moves in gold, but damage from U.S. tariffs is clear
October 7, 2025 12:56 PM UTC
Canada’s August trade deficit of C$6.32bn is up from C$3.82bn (revised from C$4.94bn) in July and the widest since April, suggesting the Canadian economy remains pressured by the impact of US tariffs. However the August deficit is inflated by strong movements in both exports and imports of gold.
October 03, 2025
U.S. September ISM Services - Back to neutral, prices still firm
October 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index has slipped back to a neutral 50.0 after a bounce to 52.0 in August from July’s near neutral 50.1 . We had suspected that August data had been flattered by seasonal adjustments but seasonal adjustments do not fully explain the recent moves.
15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September
October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted
October 02, 2025
Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam
October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in
October 01, 2025
U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Slightly firmer but a subdued picture
October 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
September’s ISM manufacturing index of 49.1 is up from August’s 48.7 and marginally beats 49.0 readings in June and March to record its highest reading since February. However there remains little direction to underlying trend.
U.S. September ADP Employment declines, initial claims and payroll releases face delay
October 1, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate of employment is weaker than expected with a 32k decline, extending a recent slowing in trend. Adding to the negative message, August was revised to a 3k decline from a 54k rise. Given the government shutdown starting today this may be the last look at the labor market we
EZ HICP Review: Headline Inflation Moves Higher as Services Ticks Up From Cycle-low
October 1, 2025 10:28 AM UTC
A second successive upside surprise is unlikely to make inflation any more of an issue for the ECB at present. Instead, moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter should remain the order of the day, this possibly a result of a still somewhat unresponsive t
September 30, 2025
U.S. August Job Openings slightly higher but September Consumer Confidence slips on labor market concerns
September 30, 2025 2:36 PM UTC
August job openings in the JOLTS report were slightly higher than expected with a rise off 19k to 7.227m but still present a picture of a fairly flat labor market. September consumer confidence at 94.2 from 97.8 was slightly weaker than expected, and showed perceptions of the labor market deteriorat
German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff
September 29, 2025
U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Significant bounce, follows strength in August new home sales
September 29, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
Pending home sales have seen a sharp 4.0% increase in August, which hints at a bounce in existing home sales in September. We have also recently seen a strong rise in August new home sales. Lower bond yields in anticipation of Fed easing appear to be having some impact.