EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip

September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain

September 24, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, alon

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives

September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored

September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses

September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Some loss of momentum, prices firm

September 15, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at 7.6 is still positive but down from a very strong 20.6 in August that was the strongest since December 2021. The data follows modest slowing in August’s ISM and S and P manufacturing PMIs, though both also remained clearly positive.