U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Softer but underlying picture near flat and prices still firm

September 15, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.7 from a positive 11.9 has broken a string of three straight positives which followed four straight negatives. The index is volatile but now it looks like that the three straight positives were not signaling an untrend. The underlying picture is p

U.S. September Preliminary Michigan CSI - Lower as 5-10 year inflation expectations rebound

September 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

September’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.4 is down from 58.2 and weaker than expected, if still above April and May levels. Worries seem to be longer term, with expectations down by more than current conditions and longer term inflation expectations bouncing while the 1-year view is unchanged.

UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs

September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer

U.S. August Budget Deficit falls from a year ago in part due to tariffs

September 11, 2025 6:34 PM UTC

August’s US budget deficit of $344.8bn is down from $380.1bn in August 2024, a $35.3bn decline. Most, but not all of the improvement can be explained by a $22.5bn increase in tariff receipts, to $29.5bn.

U.S. August CPI, Weekly Initial Claims - Risks on both sides of Fed mandate but possible seasonal adjustment issues for Claims

September 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is firmer than expected overall at 0.4% and while the core rate was as expected at 0.3% its rise before rounding at 0.346% is uncomfortably high emphasizing the upside risks to the Fed’s inflation mandate. Initial claims at 263k from 236k however point to downside risks to the Fed emplo

U.S. August NFIB survey - Optimism firmer while price signals slip

September 9, 2025 11:29 AM UTC

August’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 100.8 from 100.3 has reached its highest level since January, extending a bounce from June’s pause at 98.6.  Most encouragingly, inflationary signals have slipped for a second straight month after a bounce in June.

Canada August Employment - With Q3 looking weak, we now expect the BoC to ease in September

September 5, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 65.5k decline with unemployment up to 7.1% from 6.9% is much weaker than expected. While the detail is a little less weak than the headlines suggest, and the data has been volatile recently, we are revising our Bank of Canada call, and now expect a 25bps ea

U.S. August Employment - charts and table

September 5, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

August's employment report gives a subdued picture in al the key details.

U.S. August Employment - Trend now close to flat, backing case for easing

September 5, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll shows that job growth is now minimal, with a rise of 22k almost completely offset by a modest 21k in net downward revisions. Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2% while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, both as expected, though the workweek was weaker than expected. The

U.S. August ADP Employment - Trend now below 100k per month, Initial claims rise

September 4, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

ADP’s August estimate of private sector employment growth of 54k is only marginally below consensus but supports a picture of slowing employment growth in recent months, after a preceding 106k in July that corrected a 23k decline in June, while April and May both saw gains of less than 100k.

Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 32.9% YoY in August... But, Monthly Inflation is Still Over 2.0%

September 3, 2025 4:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 3 that the inflation slightly softened to 32.9% y/y in August from 33.5% y/y in July driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. August figure came in slightly above

U.S. July JOLTS report - Two weak months suggest trend is slowing

September 3, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

July’s JOLTS report is weaker than expected with openings down 176k to 7.181m with June revised down to 7.357m from 7.437m, now a 355k decline. The two straight declines do little more than reverse gains of 317k in May and 195k in April though the level is the lowest since September 2024.

U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - New orders positive but production slips

September 2, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

August’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 us up from July’s 48.0 but still below June’s 49.0 and weaker than the S and P manufacturing PMI and several regional Fed surveys had implied. 

EZ HICP Review: Headline Inflation Edges Higher as Services Fall to Fresh Cycle-low

September 2, 2025 9:34 AM UTC

As we repeated again, HICP inflation – even now a notch above target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, offset instead by moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter.  This mindset will not have been altered by the flash HICP data for Au

Hitting Beyond Expectations thanks to Construction Activities: Turkiye’s GDP Growth Rebounded Strong in Q2

September 1, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on September 1, Turkish economy increased by a strong 4.8% YoY despite political turbulence after arrest of Istanbul mayor and opposition’s presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu in Q2, prolonged monetary tightening eff

U.S. July Personal Income and Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected, but Advance Goods Trade Deficit up as imports rebound

August 29, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

July’s personal income and spending report is in line with expectations, with the 0.3% core PCE price index matching the core CPI, and gains of 0.4% in income and 0.5% in spending also as expected. However a rise in the July advance goods trade deficit to $103.6bn from $84.9bn is unexpected, and l

German HICP Review: Headline Back Higher But EZ Price Picture Still Reassuring?

August 29, 2025 12:12 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that