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December 03, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
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December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024. 

December 02, 2024

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
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December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.

November 29, 2024

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Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3
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November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

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EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
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November 29, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

There were mixed messages in the November flash HICP.  Matching consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.3 ppt to 2.3%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation.  Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main factor behind the rise back

Continuum Economics Calendar December 2024
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November 29, 2024 9:51 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2024.

November 28, 2024

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German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?
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November 28, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, albeit with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the preliminary November estimate, lower than widely expected, but where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%.  This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation (Figure 1)

November 27, 2024

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U.S. October Personal Income stronger, Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected
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November 27, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

October PCE prices at 0.2% overall, 0.3% core, with yr/yr rates slightly firmer at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively are as expected and predicted by Fed’s Powell on November 14. The core rate at 0.27% before rounding is not quite as strong as the core CPI. The pace is a little higher than desirable, but

U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade - No major surprises
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November 27, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

There are no major surprises in the latest round of data. Initial claims remain low but continued claims remain high, Q3 GDP was unrevised at 2.8%. October durable goods maintain a marginally positive trend, up 0.2% overall and 0.1% ex transport. October’s advance goods trade deficit corrected low

November 26, 2024

U.S. November Consumer Confidence sees a limited response to the election, October new home sales hit by weather
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November 26, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

November consumer confidence is slightly stronger at 111.7 from 109.6 but has not shown a strong reaction to the election, presumably because similar numbers were pleased and disappointed with the result. New home sales have shown a sharp unexpected fall in October, by 17.3% to 610k, but appears to

November 20, 2024

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
Freemium Article

November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2

November 18, 2024

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UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
Freemium Article

November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC

To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst.  After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March.  These numbers ar

November 15, 2024

U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes
Freemium Article

November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.

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U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend solid but may start to lose momentum
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November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.

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UK GDP Review: Momentum Dissipated?
Freemium Article

November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six

November 14, 2024

U.S. October PPI - No surprises but a little too high, Initial Claims lower in early November
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November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb

November 13, 2024

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Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October
Freemium Article

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

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Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%
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November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government

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U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report
Freemium Article

November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F

November 12, 2024

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UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?
Freemium Article

November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co

November 11, 2024

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Brazil CPI Review: Food and Energy Drive Inflation Up
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November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC

Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain

November 08, 2024

U.S. November Michigan CSI - Rise reflects pre-election sentiment
Freemium Article

November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may

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Mexico CPI Review: Agricultural Goods Drive Inflation Up
Freemium Article

November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex

Canada October Employment - Details mostly positive, suggesting economy regaining momentum
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November 8, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

While Canada’s 14.5k October rise in employment was not very impressive on the headline, the details are mostly positive and support a view that the Canadian economy is starting to regain momentum now that the Bank of Canada is easing monetary policy.

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UK GDP Preview (Nov 15): Momentum Slowing?
Freemium Article

November 8, 2024 8:02 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may have been something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only

November 07, 2024

U.S. Initial Claims remain low but Continued Claims higher, Q3 Productivity and Costs reflect GDP revisions
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November 7, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims with a rise to 221k from 218k (revised from 216k) are in line with expectations and still low. However a rise in continued claims to 1.892m from 1.853m is disappointing and suggest that job losses from recent hurricanes may be persisting. Q3 non-farm productivity with a 2.2% in

November 05, 2024

U.S. October ISM Services - Healthy, if probably a little overstated
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November 5, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

October’s ISM services index at 56.0 from 54.9 is the strongest since August 2022 and while probably a little overstated, particularly a surge in the deliveries index, suggests a healthy underlying economic picture entering Q4.

US September trade balance corrects August improvement, Canada's balance little changed in Q3
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November 5, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

September’s US trade deficit of $84.4bn is the widest since April 2022, rebounding from a 5-month low deficit of $70.8bn in August to keep a deteriorating trend intact. The average of August and September is slightly lower than July’s $78.9bn but the deficit increased in Q3.

RBA Review: Waiting to ease
Freemium Article

November 5, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 5th kept rates on hold 

November 04, 2024

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Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY
Paying Article

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

November 01, 2024

U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Weakest since July 2023, but not a sharp slide
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

October’s ISM manufacturing index at 46.5 from 47.2 is the weakest since July 2023 if only a modest deterioration. We doubt the Boeing strike had a major impact on this report which is less sensitive to issues in one large company than are aggregate measures of output.

U.S. October Employment - Charts and table
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November 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

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U.S. October Employment - Special factors add to weakness, but trend looks less strong after revisions
Freemium Article

November 1, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes, though probably also in part due to a correction from an above trend September, and negative revisions make the trend going into this report less strong than it was.

October 31, 2024

Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger
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October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.

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U.S. September Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices, Q3 Employment Cost Index, Weekly Initial Claims - Mostly solid
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October 31, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

September’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q3 totals having been seen in the GDP report.  As in Q3, growth in spending, of 0.5%, exceeds a 0.3% rise in income while core PCE prices are on the firm side of trend at 0.3%, though only 0.254% before rounding. The Employmen

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Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September
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October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

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EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher?
Freemium Article

October 31, 2024 10:42 AM UTC

Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1).  The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read

October 30, 2024

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Mexico GDP: Demand Sustains Q3 Rebound, but Growth Expected to Slow
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October 30, 2024 6:01 PM UTC

Mexico's Q3 GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations, though annual growth slowed to 1.5%. High employment and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand sustained growth, but the outlook remains cautious. Slower growth is expected ahead, with limited structural shifts such as near

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German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?
Freemium Article

October 30, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly.  After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below the ECB target and well below expect

U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Bounce may be difficult to sustain
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October 30, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a strong 7.4% increase in September which coincided with the start of Fed easing and expectations for further rate cuts to come. With easing expectations having been pared down since then, the bounce may prove difficult to sustain in October.

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U.S. Q3 GDP Sustains Momentum, Core PCE Prices Still Above Target
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October 30, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

The 2.8% increase in Q3 GDP is in line with expectations and another solid quarter to follow a 3.0% rise in Q2. The gain was led by a 3.7% rise in consumer spending but domestic demand looks healthy outside slippage in private sector construction. A slightly stronger than expected 2.2% rise in the c

U.S. October ADP Employment - Suggests underlying strength, even if payrolls prove more sensitive to weather
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October 30, 2024 12:30 PM UTC

ADP’s October estimate for private sector employment growth of 233k is well above consensus and suggests underlying strength in the labor market. However ADP is not a reliable enough guide to payrolls to have us revising our forecast for a below trend 75k (40k in the private sector) increase in th

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Eurozone GDP Review: Consumer Revival, Surveys Gloomier?
Freemium Article

October 30, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

Even more clearly, the EZ economy is diverging as Germany stutters while Spain prospers.  However, the risks are that the whole of the EZ is weakening given the possibly gloomier messages from business survey data.  Admittedly, there were some upside surprises in the Q3 numbers, albeit with the un

October 29, 2024

U.S. September JOLTS report sees Job Openings weaker but October Consumer Confidence rises
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October 29, 2024 2:34 PM UTC

September job openings have fallen by 418k to 7.443m, resuming a slowing trend back into line with pre-pandemic levels. August’s strong rise of 329k has been revised down to 150k. Three and six month averages for openings both stand near -150k. October consumer confidence however, at 108.7 from 99

U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Deficit brings downside risk to Q3 GDP
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October 29, 2024 12:45 PM UTC

September’s advance goods US trade deficit of $108.2bn is significantly wider than expected and adds to downside risks to Q3 GDP (we will stick to our already below consensus 2.4% call which assumed a wider September trade deficit). 

October 24, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2024
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October 24, 2024 4:16 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2024.

U.S. September New Home Sales - Positive trend contrasts weakness in Existing Home Sales
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October 24, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

September new home sales with a 4.1% rise to 738k are on the firm side of expectations. The series, while volatile, has been trending higher since falling to a 12-month low of 611k in November 2023.

U.S. October S&P PMIs - Manufacturing and Services see marginal improvements
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October 24, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are marginally improved, with manufacturing still weak at 47.8 from 47.3 and services still healthy at 55.3 from 55.2. 

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Eurozone Services Risks Clearer?
Freemium Article

October 24, 2024 10:13 AM UTC

It is clear that PMI data are a key component of the data analysis of the ECB. We are somewhat sceptical of the data, at least in its ability to track GDP growth coincidently and accurately.  But the data does offer a wide-ranging insight into private sector economic momentum.  With this in mind t

October 23, 2024

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Deceleration Trend Continues: South Africa’s Inflation Cooled to 3.8% YoY in September
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October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account

U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Picture remains weak
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October 23, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

September existing home sales are weaker than expected, falling 1.0% to 3.84m to the lowest level since October 2010. The softer data contrasts some signs of stronger housing demand in some September surveys, but signals for October are mixed.