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August 14, 2026
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
August 12, 2026
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
August 11, 2026
U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism on both labor market and prices
August 11, 2026 11:21 AM UTC
July’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since August 2025 at 99.8 from 97.4. Despite July’s weak payroll, respondents are more optimistic about the labor market while seeing reduced inflationary pressure.
August 07, 2026
Canada July Employment - Labor market slack being reduced
August 7, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment report comes as quite a contrast to the US one, with a strong employment gain of 75.1k and a fall in unemployment to 6.4% from 6.5% coming despite a 60.5k bounce in the labor force. Wages were however weak in the Canadian report, falling to 3.0% yr/yr from 3.7%. Canada’s
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
August 06, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs surge
August 6, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
Initial claims at 199k from 198k remain very low though continued claims at 1,801m from 1.777m hit a 4-week high. Claims data on balance are giving positive signals for July’s non-farm payroll. Q2 non-farm productivity at 1.4% is stronger than expected and Q2 unit labor costs at 1.3% softer than e
August 05, 2026
U.S. July ADP Employment - Slowest since January, but payrolls may outperform
August 5, 2026 12:34 PM UTC
July’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 44k is on the weak side of expectations, and even compared to the 60k implied by weekly ADP data in the preceding week, implying a further loss of momentum in the latest week. The gain is the slowest since January. We still however see risk o
August 04, 2026
U.S. June JOLTS report shows job openings correcting lower but Q2 remains positive
August 4, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
June’s JOLTS report has shown a 178k decline in job openings with May revised to a 48k decline from a 9k increase. With April having seen a strong 698k increase the 3-month average is still firm at 157k, while the 6-month average is similar at 135k. Q1 also saw a strong rise at the start of the mo
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.
August 03, 2026
U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Strong but with supply problems
August 3, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
July’s ISM manufacturing index of 55.6 from 53.3 is stronger than expected and the highest since May 2022, suggesting this year’s manufacturing revival, led by AI-related business investment, is accelerating further.
July 31, 2026
EZ CPI: Boosted by Energy Prices
July 31, 2026 9:19 AM UTC
• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat
EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects
July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC
• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat
July 30, 2026
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
. · Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC
· Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish bias