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February 21, 2025
U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli
U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
February 20, 2025
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
February 20, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m. February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.
February 19, 2025
U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Stable underlying picture but with downside risk
February 19, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
January housing starts have seen a steep 9.8% decline to 1366k but the outcome is only modestly below expectations and may be weather-related. Permits are virtually unchanged, up by 0.1% to 1483k, suggesting a stable underlying picture, but there may be downside risks going forward.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
February 18, 2025
UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC
There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks. Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu
February 17, 2025
Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
February 14, 2025
Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services
U.S. January Industrial Production - Aircraft and utilities up, mining and autos slip, elsewhere not much change
February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he
U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c
February 13, 2025
U.S. January PPI - Trend remains firm, Initial Claims fall
February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food
Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC
European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality. Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration
UK GDP Review: Surprise Resilience
February 13, 2025 7:58 AM UTC
GDP data for the end of 2024 very much surprised on the upside albeit still failing to convey an impression of UK’s economy displaying solidity, if not strength. Admittedly GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in December, the largest such gain in 11 months (Figure 1) and enough to have allowed Q4 see growth of
February 12, 2025
U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be
Brazil CPI Review: Mixed Signs from January Inflation
February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC
Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.
February 11, 2025
February 08, 2025
Banxico Review: 50 bps Cut as Expected
February 8, 2025 9:39 PM UTC
Banxico cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, with a cautious stance and a split vote. Inflation has fallen but remains above target, expected to converge to 3.0% by Q3 2026. Global risks, including Trump’s tariff threats, add uncertainty. Despite economic weakness, some monetary tightening may s
February 07, 2025
Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than
U.S. February Michigan CSI - Consumers look concerned about tariffs
February 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
February’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 68.7 from 71.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July, with the dip appearing to come from a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations, to 4.3% from 3.3%, which is the highest since November 2023.
Canada January Employment - Rate cuts helping, but tariff risk persists
February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl
U.S. January Employment - Trend still strong despite a weather-restrained January
February 7, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather. A dip in the workweek is also probably weather-induced and may be behind an above trend 0.5% rise in earnings per hour. Unemployment slipped to 4.0% fro
February 06, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims correct higher but still low, Few scares in Q4 Productivity and Costs report
February 6, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k have corrected higher from last week’s 208k which was the lowest since February 2024 but remain consistent with a healthy labor market. Continued claims with a 36k rise to 1.886k have also corrected higher following a preceding 50k decline.
February 05, 2025
U.S. January ISM Services - Dip may be weather-related
February 5, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
January’s ISM services index at 52.8 from 54.0 is weaker than market expectations though consistent with the S and P services PMI released earlier. It is possible bad weather, with very cold weather in much of the country probably more significant than the localized Los Angeles fires, restrained t
December sees large U.S. trade deficit while Canada's balance moves into surplus
February 5, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
December’s US trade deficit of $98.4bn from $78.9bn in November is even wider than expected and the widest since March 2022. Exports fell by 2.6% after a 2.7% November increase while imports rose by 3.5% for a second straight month.
U.S. January ADP Employment - Consumer facing industries lead healthy gain
February 5, 2025 1:31 PM UTC
ADP’s January estimate for private sector employment growth of 183k is on the firm side of expectations and in line with trend given positive recent back month revisions. We still see risk of a below trend non-farm payroll in January due to bad weather, which ADP data tends to be less sensitive to
February 04, 2025
February 03, 2025
U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Move above neutral will be tested by a trade war
February 3, 2025 3:18 PM UTC
January’s ISM manufacturing index at 50.9 from 49.2 has moved above neutral for the first time since late 2022, giving a positive picture of manufacturing ahead of the commencing trade war. The trade war is likely to be negative for manufacturing as supply chains are damaged.
EZ HICP Review: Headline Rises Amid Still Friendly Core Messages?
February 3, 2025 10:38 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the higher-than-expected January flash HICP numbers. For a third successive month, the headline but this time by ‘only’ 0.1ppt, to a six-month high of 2.5%, but where the core (again) stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly relatively stable services inflat
Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January
February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,
January 31, 2025
Mexico GDP Review: 0.6% Contraction in Q4 and Recession Risks
January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC
Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli
Canada November GDP - A weak month with tariffs threatening
January 31, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
November Canadian GDP with a 0.2% decline was weaker than the -0.1% estimate made with October’s release, where the increase was unrevised at 0.3%, The preliminary estimate for December is for a rise of 0.2%, which if accurate would leave Q4 GDP near a 1.8% annualized estimate made by the Bank of
U.S. December Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices confirm Q4 totals, Q4 Employment Cost Index as expected
January 31, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q4 totals having been seen in the GDP report. Gains of 0.2% in core PCE prices and 0.4% in personal income are in line with expectations, but spending with a 0.7% increase with positive back month revisions reflects the strong c
German Data Review: Mixed Inflation News but Politics Dominate?
January 31, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
As Germany faces possibly deeper and more prolonged political deadlock, its disinflation process continues, but there are signs that the downtrend is flattening out and this may be the message into the rest of 2025. Indeed, January HICP inflation stayed at 2.8% an outcome largely as expected. Bu
January 30, 2025
U.S. Q4 GDP Led by Strong Consumer Spending
January 30, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
The 2.3% increase in Q4 GDP is little weaker than consensus expectations surveyed before yesterday’s weak trade and inventories data but the data was supported by a significantly stronger than expected 4.2% rise in consumer spending, keeping the pace of growth solid. Core PCE prices at 2.5% are on
Eurozone Flash GDP Review: Momentum Missing as Divergence Continues?
January 30, 2025 10:31 AM UTC
After a series of upside surprises, EZ GDP both weakened and undershot both consensus and ECB expectations in Q4 (Figure 1). There is a certain irony that for an ECB Council that has evidently shifted its main concern away from broadly falling inflation to real economy weakness, the soft Q4 GDP outc
January 29, 2025
U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Deficit surges while inventories dip, bringing downside risk to Q4 GDP
January 29, 2025 1:43 PM UTC
December’s advance goods US trade deficit of $122.1bn from $103.5bn in November is sharply wider than expected and a record high. This means some downside risk to Q4 GDP, particularly with advance inventory data for December negative, wholesale at -0.5% and retail at -0.3%.
EZ Monetary Insight: Politics Making Banks More Risk Averse Accentuating EZ Divergences
January 29, 2025 11:01 AM UTC
Ahead of what seems to be a routine decision tomorrow, recent monetary data complicate the policy outlook for the ECB in the months ahead. Positively, ECB compiled money data show discernible signs of as revival in bank lending, even for companies, although still hardly any growth in real terms.
January 28, 2025
U.S. January Consumer Confidence - Labor market softens, inflation expectations rise
January 28, 2025 3:19 PM UTC
January’s consumer confidence report at 104.1 is slightly weaker than expected and down from 109.5, which saw a significant upward revision from 104.7, making December’s dip from 112.8 a lot less sharp than originally reported.
January 27, 2025
January 22, 2025
SA Inflation Review: Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.0% in December
January 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on January 22 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.0% in December from 2.9% YoY in November due to housing costs and miscellaneous goods and services, which ticked up 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global econo
January 17, 2025
U.S. December Industrial Production - Aircraft rebound but gains broad based
January 17, 2025 2:35 PM UTC
December industrial production has shown a stronger than expected 0.9% increase with manufacturing up by 0.6%. 0.2% of the increase came from aircraft as Boeing output recovered from a recent strike but the gains go well beyond that.
U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Single family series see modest gains
January 17, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
December housing starts are much stronger than expected with a 15.8% rise to 1499k, unusually outperforming permits which fell 0.7% to 1483k. For the single-family sector, the contrast is much less stark, with starts up by 3.3% and permits up by 1.6%, suggesting a modestly positive trend.