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May 14, 2026
U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience
May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?
May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside. Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?
May 12, 2026
U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter
May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.
May 11, 2026
U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Flat picture, downside risk
May 11, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
April existing home sales at 4.02m were slightly softer than expected and up only 0.2% from March, but with March revised up to 4.01m from 3.98m the net result can be seen as close to consensus, while trend continues to have little direction.
May 08, 2026
U.S. Preliminary May Michigan CSI - Dip on current conditions, expectations slightly improved
May 8, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
The preliminary May Michigan CSI of 48.2 is down from 49.8 in April and weaker than expected. The details are however more surprising, with the fall due to current conditions not expectations and inflation expectations slightly softer.
Canada April Employment - Weak data suggests little case for tightening
May 8, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment report with a 6-month high of 6.9% for unemployment following two straight months at 6.7%, and a fall of 17.7k in employment, is clearly a weak one and suggests there is little case for the Bank of Canada to consider tightening as long as core inflation shows no clear fee
U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda
May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl
Eurozone: In Dire Straits?
May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing. High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not
May 07, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims still very low, Q1 Productivity and Costs report shows strength in non-labor costs
May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC
Initial claims at 200k are up from last week’s exceptionally low 190k but still consistent with layoffs running at veery low levels. Q1 non-farm productivity at 0.8% is marginally below consensus and unit labor costs at 2.3% more significantly so but non-labor costs saw a strong 8.0% increase whic
May 06, 2026
U.S. April ADP Employment - Labor market still looking healthy
May 6, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
April’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 109k is slightly stronger than expected though not as strong as weekly ADP data had been hinting. Still, as the strongest increase since January 2025, it suggests the labor market is not weakening, suggesting Fed focus should be on inflation
May 05, 2026
U.S. April ISM Services, March Job Openings, New Home Sales - Economy growing moderately
May 5, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest round of data provides no major net surprises, with a modest decline in job openings, two straight moderate increases in new home sales and a modest slowing in the ISM services index. The data is consistent with an economy still showing moderate growth.
March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices
May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February.
May 04, 2026
April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures
May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4. After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin
May 01, 2026
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Stable but with higher inflationary pressure
May 1, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is unchanged from March and slightly below expectations but this still means four straight clearly positive readings from an index that had been running below neutral for the ten preceding months.
April 30, 2026
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile. Indeed, f
April 29, 2026
U.S. March Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade, Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
April 29, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
The latest US data is mixed though with more positives than negatives, implying the economy entered the oil shock with solid momentum. The data does not suggest any major revisions to expectations for tomorrow’s Q1 GDP release are needed, though any revisions are likely to be modestly upwards.
April 28, 2026
U.S. April Consumer Confidence remains resilient, labor market view improves
April 28, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, as was the case in March, has proven surprisingly resilient to worries on gasoline prices, with the index seeing a third straight marginal rise, to 92.8 from 92.2.
April 24, 2026
April 23, 2026
U.S. April S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services less weak
April 23, 2026 2:01 PM UTC
April’s preliminary S and P PMIs are improved with manufacturing at 54.0 from 52.3 to reach its highest since May 2022. Services at 51.3 picked up from March’s weak 49.8, seeing the composite up to 52.0 from 50.3.