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July 17, 2025
U.S. June NAHB Homebuilders Index - Slightly higher but still weak
July 17, 2025 2:17 PM UTC
July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has seen a modest correction higher to 33 from June’s 32 which was the weakest since December 2022, but still leaves a subdued picture, suggesting limited near term upside scope or new home sales.
U.S. June Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Claims, July Philly Fed - Economy regaining momentum in the tariff pause
July 17, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
The latest US data presents a picture of an economy regaining some momentum as tariff fears fade, at least temporarily. June retail sales with gains of 0.6% overall and ex auto and gas, with ex autos and the control group which contributes to GDP both up 0.5%, ended Q2 on a firm note. July’s Phill
UK Labor Market – No Lack of Slack
July 17, 2025 6:58 AM UTC
Even the BoE has acknowledged that the UK economy is developing slack in its labor market that we suggest is now not so much less tight but decidedly loose. Indeed, just days after BoE Governor Bailey suggested that signs of increasing labor market slack might prompt faster rate cuts, more such evid
July 16, 2025
U.S. June Industrial Production - Tentative signs of underlying improvement
July 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a 0.3% rise overall led by utilities which were lifted by unusually hot weather. Manufacturing saw a modest rise of 0.1%, but this is a second straight gain and the fourth rise in five months, with May revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%.
U.S. June PPI - Soft data partially offset by revisions but services are leading a slowing in trend
July 16, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
June PPI is, like most recent months softer than expected, unchanged overall and in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. However consistent with most recent months the preceding month has been revised higher, May to 0.3% overall from 0.1% and ex food and energy to 0.4% ov
UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Fails to Fall Further as Headline Surprises on Upside?
July 16, 2025 6:42 AM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late and these may have reoccurred in the June numbers partly explaining June numbers which surprised on the upside. Indeed, June saw the headline and core rise a further 0.2 ppt – the former to an 18-mth high of 3.6%. Moreover, se
July 15, 2025
U.S. June CPI - Tariff pass-through limited but not zero
July 15, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
June core CPI at 0.228% before rounding is on the low side of expectations and still shows a limited, though not zero, feed through from tariffs. Moderate gains in food and energy lifted overall CPI to a 0.3% increase, with the gain rounded up from 0.287%. Trump will use this data to argue for Fed
India CPI Review: CPI at 2.1%: Increased Headroom for One More Cut
July 15, 2025 4:33 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven.
July 11, 2025
Deceleration in Inflation, Albeit Gradual, Continued in June: 9.4% YoY
July 11, 2025 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.4% YoY in June after hitting 9.9% YoY in May, partly due to favorable base impacts, recent RUB strengthening and falling oil prices. We think the recent tariffs hike for electricity, gas, heating and w
Canada June Employment - Strong gain broad based but hard to sustain if tariff escalation persists
July 11, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
Canada’s June employment report with a rise of 83.1k is sharply ahead of expectations, even when noting that most of the gains came in a 69.5k rise in part time employment. The data may have been supported by a temporary easing of trade tensions that have subsequently escalated with yesterday’s
UK GDP Review: Another Downside Surprise
July 11, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But that 0.3% m/m drop was almost repeated in the May numbers (Figure 1), where a further albeit smaller (ie 0.1%) fall occurred, but very much below consensus. Admittedly
July 10, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims - Four straight declines after three straight gains
July 10, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims have seen a fourth straight decline, by 5k to 227k, largely reversing three straight declines that preceded them. The four week average moved higher from mid-April through early June. It may be that the damage done from the April 2 tariff announcement is starting to fade.
July 09, 2025
Eurozone: Damage Limitations on Tariffs, Uncertainty to add to Banks' Caution??
July 9, 2025 9:37 AM UTC
It remains unclear just how much of a movable feast the new U.S. tariff deadline of Aug 1 actually is. Trade deals with the US were supposed to be agreed by today, or face the reciprocal tariffs as outlined in April. But that has now been deferred to, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, hinting ac
July 08, 2025
U.S. June NFIB survey - Marginal dip, higher prices
July 8, 2025 12:04 PM UTC
June’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.6 has seen a marginal correction lower from May’s 98.6, which was the first increase since December surged to 98.8. Even April’s low of 95.8 was higher than pre-election levels, showing the election result lifted sentiment more than tariffs da
July 03, 2025
U.S. June ISM Services - Hit from tariffs shows signs of fading
July 3, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
June’s ISM services index of 50.8 from 49.9 has rebounded above neutral after falling to 49.9 in May but is still quite subdued. Detail shows bounces from weakness in May in business activity and new orders but slippage in employment and delivery times restrained the composite.
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte
Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Inches Up, But BI Still Has Room to Ease
July 3, 2025 8:12 AM UTC
Indonesia’s inflation edged up to 1.87% yr/yr in June on higher food prices, but overall price pressures remain subdued. With CPI well within Bank Indonesia’s target range and growth momentum softening, the central bank retains room to cut rates again in the second half of 2025.
July 02, 2025
Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal
U.S. June ADP Employment - Surprise decline surprisingly led by services
July 2, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
ADP’s June estimate of private sector employment shows the first decline since March 2023, contrasting positive job openings data yesterday but consistent with recent higher initial claims data. ADP surveys have recently been underperforming non-farm payrolls, for which it is not a reliable guide,
July 01, 2025
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up