U.S. January NAHB Homebuilders Index - Resilient but six month view slips

January 16, 2025 3:07 PM UTC

January’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has unexpectedly risen to 47 from 46, unexpectedly resuming an uptrend after a pause in December and showing resilience to higher bond yields and fading expectations for Fed easing. 

U.S. December Retail Sales - Trend still solid, Philly Fed surges in January

January 16, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

December retail sales with a 0.4% increase overall and ex auto, 0.3% ex autos and gasoline, are on the weak side of expectations but maintain respectable momentum, particularly in the control group which contributes to GDP, which rose by 0.7%. A strikingly strong January Philly Fed manufacturing ind

UK GDP Review: Continued Weakness Evident – BoE Voicing Concern?

January 16, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

The latest set of GDP data add to already-growing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year.  As we envisaged, November saw a bare almost-0.1% m/m rise, this came after October saw a second successi

Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

U.S. December CPI - A modest comfort to the Fed, but early 2025 data will be crucial

January 15, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

While December’s headline CPI is in line with expectations with a 0.4% increase, the core rate ex food and energy is subdued at 0.2% following four straight gains of 0.3%, and a downside surprise is quite comfortable with the gain before rounding being 0.225%. Price data did however pick up in Jan

UK CPI Review: Clearly More Reassuring Inflation Signals

January 15, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns.  Indeed, with markets are looking for the headline rate to stay at November’s 2.6% outcome, the act

Brazil CPI Review: Some Deterioration in December

January 13, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

Brazil’s CPI grew by 0.52% in December, ending 2024 at 4.8%, above the Central Bank’s target range (1.5%–4.5%). Key drivers included food (+1.2% m/m) and household spending (+0.7%). Core inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3% Y/Y. Elevated inflation is expected in early

Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

U.S. December Employment - Charts and table

January 10, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still

January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.

U.S. December ADP Employment - Modest slowing, but initial claims suggest strong labor market

January 8, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

ADP’s November estimate for private sector employment growth of 122k is slightly softer than expected but not sufficiently so to change payroll expectations (we continue to expect a 175k rise, 140k in the private sector). Labor market signals, most notably initial claims, generally remain healthy.

Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY

January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t

Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

Continuum Economics Calendar January 2025

December 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar January 2025.

U.S. November Core PCE Prices significantly softer than Core CPI

December 20, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CPI, easing some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices. Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are als

U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Singles positive, Multiples mixed

December 18, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

November housing starts are weaker than expected with a 1.8% decline to 1289k while permits are stronger than expected with a 6.1% rise to 1505k. The contrast between the two series comes largely because multiple starts were weak and multiple permits strong.

U.S. November Retail Sales - Mixed detail but trend still strong

December 17, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

November retail sales with a 0.7% increase are stronger than expected overall but the 0.2% gains in the core rates both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline are weaker than expected, though an as expected 0.4% rise in the control group suggests a healthy contribution to GDP.  Revisions are marginally

UK GDP Review: Friday the 13th Weakness Confirmed?

December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this

Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December

December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC

Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e

SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January

December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be

U.S. November CPI - A little higher than the Fed would like, but a cautious December easing still expected

December 11, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

November CPI is in line with expectations at +0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with both up by 0.31% before rounding. Core CPI with four straight 0.3% gains is still a little high for comfort but the data is probably subdued enough to allow the FOMC to deliver a 25bps easing next week, thou

Mexico CPI Review: Signs of Disinflation

December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods

RBA Review: Closer, but not yet

December 10, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on December 10th kept rates on hold at 4.35%

U.S. November Employment - Charts and table

December 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer

December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary

December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data. 

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3

December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)

U.S. October JOLTS report - Gains in Openings and Quits signal labor market resilience

December 3, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

October’s JOLTS report shows a stronger than expected 372k increase in job openings, which while not fully erasing a revised 489k decline in September leaves the 3-month average positive and the 6-month average only marginally negative, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Inflation Falls Less Than Expectations in November: 47.1% YoY

December 3, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation was higher than expected at 47.1% annually in November as food prices and housing costs continued to build. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in December and in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, but the extent of the dec