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July 11, 2025
UK GDP Review: Another Downside Surprise
July 11, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But that 0.3% m/m drop was almost repeated in the May numbers (Figure 1), where a further albeit smaller (ie 0.1%) fall occurred, but very much below consensus. Admittedly
July 10, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims - Four straight declines after three straight gains
July 10, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims have seen a fourth straight decline, by 5k to 227k, largely reversing three straight declines that preceded them. The four week average moved higher from mid-April through early June. It may be that the damage done from the April 2 tariff announcement is starting to fade.
July 09, 2025
Eurozone: Damage Limitations on Tariffs, Uncertainty to add to Banks' Caution??
July 9, 2025 9:37 AM UTC
It remains unclear just how much of a movable feast the new U.S. tariff deadline of Aug 1 actually is. Trade deals with the US were supposed to be agreed by today, or face the reciprocal tariffs as outlined in April. But that has now been deferred to, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, hinting ac
July 08, 2025
U.S. June NFIB survey - Marginal dip, higher prices
July 8, 2025 12:04 PM UTC
June’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.6 has seen a marginal correction lower from May’s 98.6, which was the first increase since December surged to 98.8. Even April’s low of 95.8 was higher than pre-election levels, showing the election result lifted sentiment more than tariffs da
July 03, 2025
U.S. June ISM Services - Hit from tariffs shows signs of fading
July 3, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
June’s ISM services index of 50.8 from 49.9 has rebounded above neutral after falling to 49.9 in May but is still quite subdued. Detail shows bounces from weakness in May in business activity and new orders but slippage in employment and delivery times restrained the composite.
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte
Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Inches Up, But BI Still Has Room to Ease
July 3, 2025 8:12 AM UTC
Indonesia’s inflation edged up to 1.87% yr/yr in June on higher food prices, but overall price pressures remain subdued. With CPI well within Bank Indonesia’s target range and growth momentum softening, the central bank retains room to cut rates again in the second half of 2025.
July 02, 2025
Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal
U.S. June ADP Employment - Surprise decline surprisingly led by services
July 2, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
ADP’s June estimate of private sector employment shows the first decline since March 2023, contrasting positive job openings data yesterday but consistent with recent higher initial claims data. ADP surveys have recently been underperforming non-farm payrolls, for which it is not a reliable guide,
July 01, 2025
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up
June 30, 2025
German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be
June 27, 2025
U.S. May Personal Income and Spending slip, Core PCE Prices above consensus but not alarming
June 27, 2025 12:59 PM UTC
May’s core PCE price index, while not alarming, is at 0.2% a little firmer than expected, with yr/yr growth rising to 2.7% from an upwardly revised 2.6% (from 2.5%) in April. Personal income and spending data is weak, down by 0.4% and 0.,1% respectively.
June 26, 2025
U.S. May Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Initial Claims stronger, Q1 GDP and May Trade Balance weaker
June 26, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed, with a downward revision to Q1 GDP to -0.5% from -0.2% led by consumer spending, and a higher advance goods trade deficit for May of $96.6bn from $87.0bn is negative for Q2. However initial claims at 236k from 246k are lower than expected while May durable goods orders surg
June 25, 2025
U.S. May New Home Sales - Strong April, weak May, prices rise, but trend may be slowing
June 25, 2025 2:36 PM UTC
May new home sales have fallen by 13.7% to 623k to more than fully reverse April’s 9.6% rise to 722k (revised from 743k). April’s total (after the revision) is the highest since May 2023 while May’s total is the lowest since October 2024. Trend has no clear direction but on balance housing dat
June 24, 2025
U.S. June Consumer Confidence slips on labor market perceptions
June 24, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
Contrasting a stronger preliminary June Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has slipped to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The contrast with the Michigan CSI comes after May data when the Michigan CSI remained weak but the Conference Board index bounced from 85.7 in April
June 23, 2025
U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Underlying picture near flat
June 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
May existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.8% increase to 4.03m which follows a 0.5% fall in April to 4.00m which was also unexpected. This suggests a fairly subdued picture, but a more resilient one than some surveys, notably pending home sales and the NAHB index, have implied.
U.S. June S&P PMIs - Resilience suggests tariff worries have peaked
June 23, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
June’s preliminary S and P PMIs shows manufacturing unexpectedly sustaining an improved May level of 52.0, and while services slipped to 53.1 from 53.7, the index remains well above April’s weaker 50.8. This is consistent with tariff concerns being past their peak.
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June 20, 2025
U.S. June Philly Fed - Details mostly weak
June 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC
June’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -4.0 is unchanged from May and weaker than expected. The details are generally soft, with 6-month expectations slowing to 18.3 from May’s very strong 47.2, though the 6-month view is still stronger than seen in March and April.
June 19, 2025
Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold
June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC
Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period. Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate. We would suspect