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August 21, 2026
U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong
August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However
August 20, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims stabilizing, August Philly Fed extremely strong
August 20, 2026 1:09 PM UTC
Initial claims at 206k in the survey week for August’s non-farm payroll are down from 212k in the preceding week but appear to be stabilizing after slipping in July. August’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 47.4 is very strong indeed, suggesting July’s reading of 41.4 was not overstated as m
August 19, 2026
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
August 18, 2026
U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
August 18, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 7:23 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 12:44 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei
August 17, 2026
U.S. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strongest since December 2021
August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
August’s Empire State manufacturing index at 20.6 from 15.6 is the strongest since December 2021 and implies that a recent investment-fueled revival in manufacturing persists, though it should be noted that the Empire State survey is quite volatile.
August 14, 2026
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
August 12, 2026
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
August 11, 2026
U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism on both labor market and prices
August 11, 2026 11:21 AM UTC
July’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since August 2025 at 99.8 from 97.4. Despite July’s weak payroll, respondents are more optimistic about the labor market while seeing reduced inflationary pressure.
August 07, 2026
Canada July Employment - Labor market slack being reduced
August 7, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment report comes as quite a contrast to the US one, with a strong employment gain of 75.1k and a fall in unemployment to 6.4% from 6.5% coming despite a 60.5k bounce in the labor force. Wages were however weak in the Canadian report, falling to 3.0% yr/yr from 3.7%. Canada’s