New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view

October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing

October 6, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s

Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing

October 6, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s

U.S. September ISM Services - Fairly stable but with prices picking up

October 5, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

Contrasting a significantly improved S and P services PMI of 58.8, September’s ISM services index of 54.9 is slightly lower than expected and down from 55.4 in August, though still maintaining a fairly stable profile at a level that implies a respectable pace of economic growth.

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum

October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip

September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain

September 24, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, alon

U.S. September S&P PMIs - Sharp gains in Manufacturing and Services back improved Q3 GDP signals

September 23, 2026 2:12 PM UTC

September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are startlingly strong, manufacturing at 57.0 from 53.9 and services at 58.7 from 56.5. The composite increased to 58.4 from 56.0.  The numbers are consistent with a Fed view that the economy has strengthened recently, with recent data also suggesting that Q3