UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best

November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking.  Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar

UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages

November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1).  Regardless, the latest l

U.S. November Preliminary Michigan CSI - Weak, possibly on shutdown or labor market worries

November 7, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

November’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.3 has seen a significant dip from 53.6 in October to reach its lowest level since June 2022. Current conditions led the slowing, perhaps due to the government shutdown or weakening in the labor market. Inflation expectations are mixed but within the recent

Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy

November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme

Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October

November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC

While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).

RBA Review: Hawkish tiit

November 4, 2025 5:28 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 4th keep rates at 3.6% with inflation forecast revised higher

U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Still slightly negative, prices paid slowing

November 3, 2025 6:30 PM UTC

October’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 from 49.1 is weaker than S and P manufacturing PMI and the bulk of the reginal surveys had implied, and keeps the index is a tight range marginally short of neutral. Some of the tariff impact is fading, with prices paid and inventories slowing.

Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%

November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?

October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

October 30, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

 It continues to be the case that, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.3% in the year to Q3, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking save to encourage a Council view of EZ eco

U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Pause after August bounce

October 29, 2025 2:25 PM UTC

Pending home sales are unchanged in September, underperforming market expectations. Most housing sector indicators have been picking up in recent months. With the flat September following a 4.2% rise in August, pending home sales appear to be doing so too.

U.S. October Consumer Confidence remains broadly stable if subdued

October 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 94.6 in October is slightly stronger than expected and down from 95.6 in September only because September was revised up from 94.2. Labor market conditions are slightly improved and inflation expectations slightly higher. 

Eurozone: Tighter Credit Standards By EZ Banks Confirmed

October 28, 2025 9:44 AM UTC

Hardly a surprise despite the ECB suggestions to the contrary as the reported net tightening credit standards merely accentuates trends in the two previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  This updated BLS therefore echoes what we have seen in other ECB surveys and in actual credit dynamics and thus un

UK Food Inflation; Not Just a Domestic Issue, Despite Industry Claims

October 28, 2025 8:45 AM UTC

Food price inflation is becoming an increasing issue for both policy makers and households as well as companies that are generating and selling the produce. Particularly in the UK, rising food price inflation is helping shore up well-above target CPI inflation and thereby deterring the BoE from what

ECB Monetary Worries Emerging as Corporate Credit Dynamics Weaken More Clearly

October 27, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

As a foretaste of the Bank Lending Survey BLS) due tomorrow, the ECB released two associated pieces of data today, both corroborating and continuing an ever worrying pattern, namely weakness in corporate credit. The data showed growth in later has fallen to its lowest in almost two years (Figure 1).

U.S. October S&P PMIs - Positive signal more reliable for ISM manufacturing than ISM services

October 24, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly stronger, manufacturing marginally at 52.2 from 52.0 and services significantly at 55.2 from 54.2, The services index may be getting support from Fed easing and may not be a reliable guide to ISM services data.

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Starting to pick up as mortgage rates fall

October 23, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

September existing home sales with a 1.5% increase are spot on consensus expectations, and while the rise is modest the level is the highest since February, supported by recent declines in mortgage rates.