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February 16, 2026
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw
February 13, 2026
VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January
February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been
U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021
February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter
February 12, 2026
U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Sharp fall was signaled by pending home sales
February 12, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
January existing home sales are well below expectations with a fall of 8.4% to 3.91m, the lowest level since September 2024. Bad weather may have played a part but given that pending home sales fell by 9.3% in December, weather is unlikely to be the whole story.
U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's
February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
February 12, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
First the good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year. But as is familiar with recent UK real economy data, there is a negative flip side with the 0.1 m/m December advance negated by downward revisions to previous figures (November
February 11, 2026
U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger
February 10, 2026
U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum
February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati
February 06, 2026
Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025
February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti
Canada January Employment - Ontario explains employment and labor force slippage
February 6, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a mixed employment report for January, with a 24.8k decline in employment led by manufacturing and the province of Ontario, but a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.8%. Weather may have played a part in the weakness in Ontario, though details are mixed leaving the d
February 05, 2026
U.S. December JOLTS report - Third straight decline in openings
February 5, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
December’s JOLTS report has delivered a 386k decline in job openings to 6.542m, which is the weakest level since September 2020 during the pandemic. The series is a volatile one but the decline is the third straight, the first time this has happened since July 2023.
U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January
February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.
February 04, 2026
U.S. January ADP Employment - A weaker month which may underperform payrolls
February 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
January’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 22k falls short of expectations. We still see scope for non-farm payrolls to outperform the ADP data given very low initial claims and positive seasonal adjustments, though a recent tendency for ADP data to underperform payrolls is no long
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Less Resilient as Core Hits Cycle-Low
February 4, 2026 11:19 AM UTC
Having been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% until November but after a fall to 1.9% in December headline HICP inflation dropped to 1.7% in the flash January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome. The drop came in spite of higher food inflation
February 03, 2026
Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January
February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec
February 02, 2026
U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Broad based improvement
February 2, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
January’s ISM manufacturing index of 52.6 is up significantly from 47.9 in December and the highest since August 2022. While caution should be seen on one month’s data, the improvement is broad based and backed by several reginal surveys.
January 29, 2026
U.S. November trade deficit more than fully erases October plunge, Initial Claims still low but revised higher in payroll survey week
January 29, 2026 2:20 PM UTC
After a startlingly narrow October trade deficit of $29.2bn, the lowest since February 2029, November’s deficit has seen a larger rebound than expected, to $56.8bn, which is the widest since June, though still well below the record pre-tariff deficit of $136.4bn seen in March.
January 27, 2026
U.S. January Consumer Confidence weakest since 2014, politics likely adding to employment concerns
January 27, 2026 3:30 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 84.5 in January is down from an upwardly revised December index of 94.2 (from 89.1) and the weakest since May 2014. The decline contrasts a modest increase in the January Michigan CSI which reached its highest level since August.
January 26, 2026
U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft surge, underlying trend moderately positive
January 26, 2026 1:49 PM UTC
November’s durable goods orders report with gains of 5.3% overall and 0.5% ex transport is stronger than expected, though the picture of a strong headline field by aircraft and a continued moderately positive ex transport picture is in line with consensus.