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June 15, 2026
U.S. May Industrial Production - Pause in a positive trend
June 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
May industrial production with a 0.1% increase and manufacturing unchanged was on the weak side of expectations. Near term revisions were positive but revisions further back were negative. Capacity utilization at 76.2% was as expected and the highest since July 2025.
June 12, 2026
U.S. Preliminary June Michigan CSI - Rebounds from a very weak May final as inflation expectations correct lower
June 12, 2026 2:43 PM UTC
The preliminary June Michigan CSI at 48.9 has seen a surprising bounce from May’s final and record low of 44.8 but is not far off May’s preliminary of 48.2. Gasoline prices remain high but have slipped from May’s highs though the dip in May’s final now looks overstated.
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since
June 10, 2026
Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023
June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
June 09, 2026
South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1
June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne
U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Resilient to headwinds
June 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
May existing home sales have seen a stronger than expected 3.2% increase to 4.17m, taking the level to the highest since December. This shows resilience to higher mortgage rates and fading hopes for Fed easing, but it follows three straight gains in pending home sales after they hit a record low in
April US trade deficit shows a fairly stable picture, Canada trade balance shows a stronger surplus
June 9, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
April’s US trade deficit of $55.9bn is a little narrower than the market expected but less of an improvement from March than expected, with March’s deficit being revised lower, to $56.6bn from $60.3bn. The deficit has not changed much over the last four months, and appears to be stabilizing at a
June 05, 2026
Canada May Employment - Recent weakness largely erased, wages correct lower
June 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
Canada’s May employment report keeps the series volatile, with a strong 87.8k bounce reducing unemployment to a four month low of 6.6%, from April’s 6-month high of 6.9%. This should ease any Bank of Canada worries over the weak Q1 GDP data which saw a second straight, if marginal, decline. The
Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices
June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5. After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will
U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality
June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message. In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was
June 04, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims up in holiday week, Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both revised down
June 4, 2026 12:56 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k in the week to May 30 are up from 212k and the highest since February 7, though the data should be treated with some caution given that the week included the Memorial Day holiday, which can cause seasonal adjustment difficulties.
June 03, 2026
U.S. May ADP Employment - Trend picking up
June 3, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
May’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 122k is in line with market exactions if not quite as strong as weekly ADP data for the preceding week had been implying. Still, it maintains a recent improvement in trend and like last week’s was, is the strongest increase since January 2
June 02, 2026
U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so
June 2, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing
EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?
June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC
Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking. As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe
June 01, 2026
U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Supported by AI, inflationary pressures pause
June 1, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
May’s ISM manufacturing index at 54.0 is stronger than expected, up from 52.7 in April and the highest since May 2022. This is consistent with several other manufacturing surveys, notably the S and P national survey, and suggests the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, most likely fueled by
Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1
June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted
May 29, 2026
Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2
May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint
U.S. April Advance Goods Trade - Positive for Q2 GDP, but inventories may provide some offset
May 29, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
April’s advance US trade deficit of $82.4bn is narrower than expected and down from $$85.3bn in March. Exports rose by 4.0% while imports rose by 1.9%. Earlier price data had shown gains of 3.3% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
May 28, 2026
U.S. April New Home Sales - A below trend month
May 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April new home sales with a 6.2% decline to 622k are on the weak side of trend which is showing signs of losing momentum, if not dramatically yet. That May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index picked up from a weak April cautions against reading too much into this data.