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November 05, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims very low, Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs strong
November 5, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
Initial claims at 189k from 195kare back at the July 18 low. Continued claims did correct higher by 23k 1.718m after a preceding 27k decline but the net message is still for a very tight labor market. The latest data were however surveyed after October’s non-farm payroll was.
November 04, 2026
U.S. September trade deficit narrows marginally but wider in real terms
November 4, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
September’s trade deficit of $105.0bn from $105.9bn surprisingly narrowed marginally from August despite a wider advance goods deficit released earlier. Still, the data confirms a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in Q3.
U.S. October ADP Employment - Hints at upside payroll risk
November 4, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
October’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 86k is on the firm side of expectations and exactly matches September’s (revised from 90k) so the data is presumably reasonably representative of trend. The number is stronger than our payroll forecast of 45k private, 50k overall.
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
November 03, 2026
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:02 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
November 02, 2026
EZ CPI Preview - Another Piece of the Puzzle Before December's Hike
November 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect headline annual inflation to hit 4% in October as the impact of the energy shock continues to filter through. That increase would represent a further uptick from the 3.8% recorded in September and from the 1.9% rate seen just before the start of the Middle East conflict. Preliminary nation
EZ CPI Preview - Another Piece of the Puzzle Before December's Hike
November 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect headline annual inflation to hit 4% in October as the impact of the energy shock continues to filter through. That increase would represent a further uptick from the 3.8% recorded in September and from the 1.9% rate seen just before the start of the Middle East conflict. Preliminary nation
U.S. October ISM Manufacturing firm, September Construction Spending slips
November 2, 2026 3:15 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index of 55.5 is up from 54.5 in September and 54.6 in August but slightly below July’s 55.6 which was the strongest since May 2022. The data continues to imply a positive manufacturing picture.
October 30, 2026
Eurozone Economy Remains Resilient in Q3 - Headwinds Ahead?
October 30, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
The economy expanded more than expected in Q3, rising 0.4% q/q from 0.6% before, with the Eurozone aggregate benefitting from Ireland’s large and volatile growth rate. Most of the larger member countries experienced weak quarter on quarter growth, with Germany’s economy increasing 0.2%, Italy’
Eurozone Economy Remains Resilient in Q3 - Headwinds Ahead?
October 30, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
The economy expanded more than expected in Q3, rising 0.4% q/q from 0.6% before, with the Eurozone aggregate benefitting from Ireland’s large and volatile growth rate. Most of the larger member countries experienced weak quarter on quarter growth, with Germany’s economy increasing 0.2%, Italy’
October 29, 2026
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire
October 28, 2026
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
October 27, 2026
U.S. Septenber New Home Sales, October Consumer Confidence - Surprising resilience, notably on labor signal
October 27, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
September new home sales, down a marginal 0.6% to 676k, have held up better than expected, while October consumer confidence with a bounce to 91.7 from 84.2 is even more surprising, reaching its highest level since June.
U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of underlying momentum in Q3
October 27, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
September durable goods orders are in line with expectations, up by 1.8% overall and 0.5% ex transport. The ex transport trend remains positive but has lost some momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2.
U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of underlying momentum in Q3
October 27, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
September durable goods orders are in line with expectations, up by 1.8% overall and 0.5% ex transport. The ex transport trend remains positive but has lost some momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2.
October 21, 2026
China September Activity Data Review: Dichotomy between Supply and Demand
October 21, 2026 1:32 AM UTC
China’s dichotomy between supply and demand continued to deepen in September, as sluggish retail sales and fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial n
October 20, 2026
U.S. September Pending Home Sales - More signs of housing sector weakness
October 20, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
September’s 7.3% decline in pending home sales is the sharpest decline since December with the level a record low. This adds to growing evidence that rising mortgage rates are undermining housing demand.
U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Signs of weakness building
October 20, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
September housing starts are clearly weaker than expected, -5.2% to 1221k, with both singles and multiples lower. Permits held up better, -0.2% to 1400k, but with multiples up and singles down the net message is for a slowing housing sector, restrained by rising mortgage rates.
U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Signs of weakness building
October 20, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
September housing starts are clearly weaker than expected, -5.2% to 1221k, with both singles and multiples lower. Permits held up better, -0.2% to 1400k, but with multiples up and singles down the net message is for a slowing housing sector, restrained by rising mortgage rates.