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April 16, 2026
UK GDP Review (Apr 16): Fresh But Fleeting Momentum Before the War
April 16, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
Without the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by this latest GDP update which showed a very much above consensus m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. But of course, the conflict has ch
April 15, 2026
U.S. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Resilient, prices mostly firmer but not shockingly so
April 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
April’s Empire State manufacturing index at 11.0 is up from a near neutral -0.2 in March and the strongest since November, suggesting activity is resilient to the Middle East crisis. 6-month expectations have however taken a hit, falling to 19.6 from 31.0, this the lowest since November.
April 14, 2026
Eurozone: ECB Downplaying Supply of Credit as it Focuses on its Cost
April 14, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
Even amid increasing suggestions that the Middle East conflict will reap marked real economy damage that should limit the length and extent of any inflation surge, markets are still pricing in almost three 25 bp ECB hikes in the coming year. We think this is still very excessive and reflects an ou
April 13, 2026
U.S. March Existing Home Sales - A weak month, downside risk in Q2
April 13, 2026 2:24 PM UTC
March existing home sales with a 3.6% decline to 3.98m are weaker than expected. There may be some lagged impact from bad weather in late February but if energy prices remain elevated, restricting the ability of the Fed to ease, there are downside risks in Q2.
April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Not an extreme reaction to the energy shock
April 10, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
The preliminary April Michigan CSI of 47.6 from 53.3 is a record low but the monthly decline of 5.7 points, while significant, is not as large as a 7.7 point fall in March 2025 when tariff worries were building. Inflation expectations are up sharply on a one-year view, and modestly on a 5-10 year vi
Canada March Employment - Subdued as expected but with a surprise bounce in wages
April 10, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment gain of 14.1k is in line with market expectations and not very impressive after a plunge of 83.9k in February that may have been exaggerated by weather. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.7% as expected. There was an upside surprise in wage growth, the hourly rate for perman
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
April 09, 2026
U.S. Personal Income slips, Core PCE Prices remain firm
April 9, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a 0.1% decline in personal income for February that significantly underperformed a 0.5% rise in spending (itself slightly below expectations) which saw the savings rate slip back after a tax cut-assisted bounce in January. 0
April 08, 2026
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
April 07, 2026
New York Fed survey shows U.S. inflation expectations higher in March, even on a 5-year view
April 7, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations shows expectations have been lifted by the surge in energy prices, most obviously at the 1-year level, but with impacts visible at the 3-year and even 5-year levels.
U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Underlying trend remains positive
April 7, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
February durable goods orders are in line with expectations overall with a 1.4% decline led by the volatile aircraft sector correcting from recent strength, but a slightly stronger than expected ex transport increase of 0.8% maintaining a positive trend, indicating a positive business investment pic
Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March
April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla
April 06, 2026
U.S. March ISM Services - Slower but far from weak, with inflationary pressure rising
April 6, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 54.0 is weaker than expected and down from February’s 56.1 which was the strongest since July 2022. However, March’s reading remains higher than in every month of 2025, contrasting the S and P services PMI, which on Friday was revised down to a below neutral 49.8
April 03, 2026
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn
April 02, 2026
U.S. February trade shows gains in both exports and imports, Initial Claims very low
April 2, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests a resilient economy ahead of the oil shock, with a narrower than expected February trade deficit of $57.3bn, and while up from $54.7bn in January shows strong rises in both experts and imports, by 4.2% and 4.3% respectively. Weekly initial claims at 202k from 211k are sur
April 01, 2026
U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Composite firm but new orders slower and prices strong
April 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
March’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is slightly improved from February’s 52.4 and maintains a sharp improvement into positive territory in Q1. However rising prices paid and slowing new orders provide some warnings that surging energy prices could have adverse effects.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?
April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War. In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (
March 31, 2026
U.S. March Consumer Confidence resilient to higher inflation expectations, February job openings trend near flat
March 31, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
Despite a bounce in inflation expectations, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is surprisingly stronger in March at 91.8 from 91.0, a second straight rise though not fully erasing a January dip. February JOLTS data on job openings suggests a fairly stable labor market picture.
EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?
March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB. Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring