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July 17, 2026
U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated
July 17, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East.
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts rebound, elsewhere modest slippage
July 17, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
June housing starts rose a stronger than expected 19.0% to 1.427m after a 15.2% decline in May, the moves ked by the volatile multiples sector. Single starts saw a third straight decline, while permits, -3.0% to 1.367m, saw a second straight decline. Underlying trend appears to be easing.
July 16, 2026
U.S. June Pending Home Sales and July NAHB Homebuilders' Index both weaker
July 16, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
The latest data suggests some weakness in the housing sector as rising inflation worries put upward pressure on mortgage rates, with slippage in June pending home sales and July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index.
U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges
July 16, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k from
U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges
July 16, 2026 1:09 PM UTC
The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k from
UK GDP and BOE Question
July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC
· UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas. H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A
July 14, 2026
U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed
July 14, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r
U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed
July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r
July 02, 2026
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
July 01, 2026
U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures
July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
June 30, 2026
UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative
June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones. This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer. Such shots of real growth ar
U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs
June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.
June 26, 2026
U.S. May Advance Goods Trade - Exports slip, imports remain strong, negative for GDP
June 26, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
May’s advance goods US trade deficit of $105.8bn is a sharp deterioration from April’s $83.0bn and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $158.7bn seen in March 2025. Exports plunged by 5.4% after four straight solid gains while imports increased by 3.6%, this the fourth straight solid
June 25, 2026
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims - Mostly firm but consumer spending revised lower
June 25, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly strong, with an upward revision to Q1 GDP, stronger than expected May personal income and spending, still firm core PCE prices, lower initial claims and strength in May durable goods orders outside a fall in transport. However the Q1 GDP revision was mixed, with a signif