UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated

July 17, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East. 

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges

July 16, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k from

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

U.S. June NFIB survey - Bounce may be dated, prices strong

July 14, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

June’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since February at 97.4 from 95.3, a reading that was the lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures

July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative

June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones.  This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer.   Such shots of real growth ar