U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Singles positive, Multiples mixed

December 18, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

November housing starts are weaker than expected with a 1.8% decline to 1289k while permits are stronger than expected with a 6.1% rise to 1505k. The contrast between the two series comes largely because multiple starts were weak and multiple permits strong.

U.S. November Retail Sales - Mixed detail but trend still strong

December 17, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

November retail sales with a 0.7% increase are stronger than expected overall but the 0.2% gains in the core rates both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline are weaker than expected, though an as expected 0.4% rise in the control group suggests a healthy contribution to GDP.  Revisions are marginally

UK GDP Review: Friday the 13th Weakness Confirmed?

December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this

Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December

December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC

Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e

SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January

December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be

U.S. November CPI - A little higher than the Fed would like, but a cautious December easing still expected

December 11, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

November CPI is in line with expectations at +0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with both up by 0.31% before rounding. Core CPI with four straight 0.3% gains is still a little high for comfort but the data is probably subdued enough to allow the FOMC to deliver a 25bps easing next week, thou

Mexico CPI Review: Signs of Disinflation

December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods

RBA Review: Closer, but not yet

December 10, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on December 10th kept rates on hold at 4.35%

U.S. November Employment - Charts and table

December 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer

December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary

December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data. 

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3

December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)

U.S. October JOLTS report - Gains in Openings and Quits signal labor market resilience

December 3, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

October’s JOLTS report shows a stronger than expected 372k increase in job openings, which while not fully erasing a revised 489k decline in September leaves the 3-month average positive and the 6-month average only marginally negative, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Inflation Falls Less Than Expectations in November: 47.1% YoY

December 3, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation was higher than expected at 47.1% annually in November as food prices and housing costs continued to build. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in December and in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, but the extent of the dec

Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build

December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024. 

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders

December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.

Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3

November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?

November 29, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

There were mixed messages in the November flash HICP.  Matching consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.3 ppt to 2.3%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation.  Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main factor behind the rise back

Continuum Economics Calendar December 2024

November 29, 2024 9:51 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2024.

German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?

November 28, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, albeit with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the preliminary November estimate, lower than widely expected, but where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%.  This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation (Figure 1)

U.S. October Personal Income stronger, Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected

November 27, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

October PCE prices at 0.2% overall, 0.3% core, with yr/yr rates slightly firmer at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively are as expected and predicted by Fed’s Powell on November 14. The core rate at 0.27% before rounding is not quite as strong as the core CPI. The pace is a little higher than desirable, but

U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade - No major surprises

November 27, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

There are no major surprises in the latest round of data. Initial claims remain low but continued claims remain high, Q3 GDP was unrevised at 2.8%. October durable goods maintain a marginally positive trend, up 0.2% overall and 0.1% ex transport. October’s advance goods trade deficit corrected low

U.S. November Consumer Confidence sees a limited response to the election, October new home sales hit by weather

November 26, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

November consumer confidence is slightly stronger at 111.7 from 109.6 but has not shown a strong reaction to the election, presumably because similar numbers were pleased and disappointed with the result. New home sales have shown a sharp unexpected fall in October, by 17.3% to 610k, but appears to

UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher

November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2

UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!

November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC

To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst.  After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March.  These numbers ar

U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes

November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.

U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend solid but may start to lose momentum

November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.

UK GDP Review: Momentum Dissipated?

November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six

U.S. October PPI - No surprises but a little too high, Initial Claims lower in early November

November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government

U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report

November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F

UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?

November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co

Brazil CPI Review: Food and Energy Drive Inflation Up

November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC

Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain

U.S. November Michigan CSI - Rise reflects pre-election sentiment

November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may