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January 10, 2025
Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue
U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.
Canada December Employment - Strong job growth but again flattered by the public sector
January 10, 2025 2:26 PM UTC
Canada has followed a healthy 50.5k increase in November employment with a substantially stronger 90.9k increase in December, though the acceleration in full time work to 57.5k from 54.2k was marginal. While some of the detail is less impressive, the data suggests the economy is gaining momentum, as
U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still
January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.
January 08, 2025
U.S. December ADP Employment - Modest slowing, but initial claims suggest strong labor market
January 8, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate for private sector employment growth of 122k is slightly softer than expected but not sufficiently so to change payroll expectations (we continue to expect a 175k rise, 140k in the private sector). Labor market signals, most notably initial claims, generally remain healthy.
January 07, 2025
U.S. November JOLTS report sees Job Openings highest since May, December ISM Services index also firmer
January 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
November has seen as sharp bounce in job openings, by 259k to 8.098m, a second straight rise which after October’s 467k more than fully erases the 489k decline of September and takes the level to the highest since May. December ISM services data is also on the firm side of expectations, rising t
US November trade balance corrects lower but trend still widening
January 7, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
November’s US trade deficit of $78.3bn is in line with expectations generated by advance goods data though up from a $73.6bn deficit seen in October. The data shows exports and imports both rebounding from weakness in October that was probably influenced by a strike at East Coast ports early in th
January 03, 2025
Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY
January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC
Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t
December 29, 2024
Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November
December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%
December 20, 2024
U.S. November Core PCE Prices significantly softer than Core CPI
December 20, 2024 1:59 PM UTC
November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CPI, easing some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices. Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are als
December 19, 2024
U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Picking up, but for how long?
December 19, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
November existing home sales have shown a stronger than expected 4.8% rise to 4.15m, though pending home sales data had hinted at a strong ruse. A recent bounce in housing demand has been supported by Fed easing. If Fed easing is now starting to slow, further gains may be modest.
U.S. Initial Claims move back down and GDP revised up, but Philly Fed weak
December 19, 2024 2:15 PM UTC
Initial claims at 220k in December’s non-farm payroll survey week have slipped back from last week’s 8-week high and suggest the labor market remains healthy. Q3 GDP has seen an unexpected and broad-based upward revision to 3.1% from 2.8% while the core PCE price index has nudged marginally high
December 18, 2024
U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Singles positive, Multiples mixed
December 18, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
November housing starts are weaker than expected with a 1.8% decline to 1289k while permits are stronger than expected with a 6.1% rise to 1505k. The contrast between the two series comes largely because multiple starts were weak and multiple permits strong.
December 17, 2024
U.S. November Industrial Production - No rebound in aircraft after Boeing strike
December 17, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
November industrial production has shown an unexpected 0.1% decline while manufacturing with a 0.2% increase has shown a significantly smaller rebound from recent hurricanes and a strike at Boeing that was expected. Excluding a bounce in autos, manufacturing actually fell by 0.1%, a third straight d
U.S. November Retail Sales - Mixed detail but trend still strong
December 17, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
November retail sales with a 0.7% increase are stronger than expected overall but the 0.2% gains in the core rates both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline are weaker than expected, though an as expected 0.4% rise in the control group suggests a healthy contribution to GDP. Revisions are marginally
December 16, 2024
U.S. December S&P PMIs - Manufacturing corrects lower, Services very strong indeed
December 16, 2024 2:59 PM UTC
December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing correcting lower top 48.3 from 47.7 after two months of improvement but services at 58.5 from 56.1 very strong indeed and the highest since October 2021.
U.S. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey - November strength confirmed as erratic
December 16, 2024 1:45 PM UTC
December’s Empire State manufacturing index of 0.2 confirms the November reading of 31.2, that vastly outperformed other comparable manufacturing surveys, was erratic. The index is still showing some improvement in trend after nine straight negatives seen in the months ending in August 2024.
December 13, 2024
UK GDP Review: Friday the 13th Weakness Confirmed?
December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC
The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this
December 12, 2024
Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,
U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December
December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC
Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e
December 11, 2024
SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January
December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be
U.S. November CPI - A little higher than the Fed would like, but a cautious December easing still expected
December 11, 2024 1:56 PM UTC
November CPI is in line with expectations at +0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with both up by 0.31% before rounding. Core CPI with four straight 0.3% gains is still a little high for comfort but the data is probably subdued enough to allow the FOMC to deliver a 25bps easing next week, thou
December 10, 2024
U.S. Q3 and Q2 Unit Labor Costs revised lower
December 10, 2024 1:50 PM UTC
While Q3 non-farm productivity was unrevised at a respectable 2.2% unit labor costs saw a steeper than expected downward revision to 0.8% from 1.9%, with Q2 revised even more significantly lower, to -1.1% from a positive 2.4%.
U.S. November NFIB survey sees sharp post-election bounce
December 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
November’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has seen a sharp rise on the election result, to 101.7, the highest since June 2021, from 93.7, though the move may be in part on the political bias of the respondents.
Mexico CPI Review: Signs of Disinflation
December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods
December 06, 2024
Canada November Employment - Strong job growth came largely in the public sector
December 6, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Canada’s 50.5k increase in employment was stronger than expected in November, and fully explained by a 54.2k rise in full time work. However, with 45k of the new jobs created coming in the public sector the data is less impressive than it initially seems. With unemployment up and wages slower we c
U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer
December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC
November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym
December 05, 2024
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data.
December 04, 2024
South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3
December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)
U.S. November ADP Employment - Mostly strong despite weak manufacturing
December 4, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate for private sector employment growth of 146k is in line with expectations and a modest slowing from October’s 184k (revised down from 233k). Trend still looks solid and it appears that October’s weak non-farm payroll which saw a 28k decline in the private sector reflect
December 03, 2024
U.S. October JOLTS report - Gains in Openings and Quits signal labor market resilience
December 3, 2024 3:15 PM UTC
October’s JOLTS report shows a stronger than expected 372k increase in job openings, which while not fully erasing a revised 489k decline in September leaves the 3-month average positive and the 6-month average only marginally negative, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.
Inflation Falls Less Than Expectations in November: 47.1% YoY
December 3, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
Bottom line: Inflation was higher than expected at 47.1% annually in November as food prices and housing costs continued to build. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in December and in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, but the extent of the dec
Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC
Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024.
December 02, 2024
U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.
November 29, 2024
Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3
November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se
EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher, But Core Messages Still Friendly?
November 29, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the November flash HICP. Matching consensus thinking, the headline rose 0.3 ppt to 2.3%, but where the core stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main factor behind the rise back
November 28, 2024
German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?
November 28, 2024 1:40 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, albeit with the y/y HICP headline stable at 2.4% in the preliminary November estimate, lower than widely expected, but where the CPI counterpart rose 0.2 ppt to 2.2%. This was again in spite of apparently stable or resilient services inflation (Figure 1)
November 27, 2024
U.S. October Personal Income stronger, Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected
November 27, 2024 3:15 PM UTC
October PCE prices at 0.2% overall, 0.3% core, with yr/yr rates slightly firmer at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively are as expected and predicted by Fed’s Powell on November 14. The core rate at 0.27% before rounding is not quite as strong as the core CPI. The pace is a little higher than desirable, but
U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade - No major surprises
November 27, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest round of data. Initial claims remain low but continued claims remain high, Q3 GDP was unrevised at 2.8%. October durable goods maintain a marginally positive trend, up 0.2% overall and 0.1% ex transport. October’s advance goods trade deficit corrected low
November 26, 2024
U.S. November Consumer Confidence sees a limited response to the election, October new home sales hit by weather
November 26, 2024 3:21 PM UTC
November consumer confidence is slightly stronger at 111.7 from 109.6 but has not shown a strong reaction to the election, presumably because similar numbers were pleased and disappointed with the result. New home sales have shown a sharp unexpected fall in October, by 17.3% to 610k, but appears to
November 20, 2024
UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2
November 18, 2024
UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!
November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst. After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March. These numbers ar