UK: Weak Growth – Don’t Blame It All on the Budget!

November 18, 2024 12:40 PM UTC

To suggest that the disappointing Q3 GDP data is largely down to apprehension about the Budget presented at the end of October is incomplete at best and misplaced at worst.  After all, monthly GDP data suggest that the economy has not grown since May and by only 0.2% since March.  These numbers ar

U.S. October Industrial Production - Decline largely due to Boeing strike and hurricanes

November 15, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

October industrial production fell by 0.3% after falling by 0.5% (revised from -0.3%) in September. The now settled strike at Boeing reduced October output by 0.2% after a hit of 0.3% in September. Hurricanes were only a modest negative in October, taking off 0.1% after taking 0.3% off in September.

U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend solid but may start to lose momentum

November 15, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

October retail sales are in line with expectations overall but stronger net of revisions, with September revised up to a 0.8% increase from 0.4%, outweighing a downward revision to August to -0.1% from a 0.1% increase. October gains were subdued ex autos and ex autos and gasoline, both up by 0.1%.

UK GDP Review: Momentum Dissipated?

November 15, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The latest data, including that for the Q3, very much questions the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as apparently seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six

U.S. October PPI - No surprises but a little too high, Initial Claims lower in early November

November 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

October PPI with a 0.2% increase overall, and 0.3% gains in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food., energy and trade, is in line with expectations but not soft enough to be consistent with inflation at the Fed’s 2.0% target. The labor market appears to be regaining momentum in early Novemb

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government

U.S. October CPI - A more balanced report

November 13, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

October CPI has seen the fourth straight rise of 0.2% overall and the third straight rise ex food and energy of 0.3%, both on consensus. Before rounding the gains were 0.24% and 0.28% respectively, the latter slower than September’s 0.31% but in line with August’s. The data leaves the December F

UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Contract Amid Cost Pressures?

November 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrolls suggest that employment is continuing to co

Brazil CPI Review: Food and Energy Drive Inflation Up

November 11, 2024 9:13 PM UTC

Brazil’s October CPI rose 0.56%, pushing the year-over-year rate to 4.7%, above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) 4.5% target. The increase was driven by food and housing costs, especially due to rising electricity tariffs impacted by low hydroelectric reservoir levels. Although core CPI remain

U.S. November Michigan CSI - Rise reflects pre-election sentiment

November 8, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

November’s preliminary Michigan CSI was surveyed before the election and shows consumers getting more optimistic, with a rise in the index led by future expectations at 68.9 while current conditions moved lower. The optimism may reflect supporters of both candidates expecting victory and if so may

Mexico CPI Review: Agricultural Goods Drive Inflation Up

November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex

Canada October Employment - Details mostly positive, suggesting economy regaining momentum

November 8, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

While Canada’s 14.5k October rise in employment was not very impressive on the headline, the details are mostly positive and support a view that the Canadian economy is starting to regain momentum now that the Bank of Canada is easing monetary policy.

UK GDP Preview (Nov 15): Momentum Slowing?

November 8, 2024 8:02 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may have been something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only

U.S. Initial Claims remain low but Continued Claims higher, Q3 Productivity and Costs reflect GDP revisions

November 7, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims with a rise to 221k from 218k (revised from 216k) are in line with expectations and still low. However a rise in continued claims to 1.892m from 1.853m is disappointing and suggest that job losses from recent hurricanes may be persisting. Q3 non-farm productivity with a 2.2% in

RBA Review: Waiting to ease

November 5, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 5th kept rates on hold 

Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

U.S. October Employment - Special factors add to weakness, but trend looks less strong after revisions

November 1, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes, though probably also in part due to a correction from an above trend September, and negative revisions make the trend going into this report less strong than it was.

Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger

October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.

U.S. September Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices, Q3 Employment Cost Index, Weekly Initial Claims - Mostly solid

October 31, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

September’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q3 totals having been seen in the GDP report.  As in Q3, growth in spending, of 0.5%, exceeds a 0.3% rise in income while core PCE prices are on the firm side of trend at 0.3%, though only 0.254% before rounding. The Employmen

Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

EZ HICP Review: Headline Higher?

October 31, 2024 10:42 AM UTC

Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1).  The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read

Mexico GDP: Demand Sustains Q3 Rebound, but Growth Expected to Slow

October 30, 2024 6:01 PM UTC

Mexico's Q3 GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations, though annual growth slowed to 1.5%. High employment and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand sustained growth, but the outlook remains cautious. Slower growth is expected ahead, with limited structural shifts such as near

German Data Review: Services Inflation Persists?

October 30, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly.  After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below the ECB target and well below expect

U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Bounce may be difficult to sustain

October 30, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a strong 7.4% increase in September which coincided with the start of Fed easing and expectations for further rate cuts to come. With easing expectations having been pared down since then, the bounce may prove difficult to sustain in October.

U.S. Q3 GDP Sustains Momentum, Core PCE Prices Still Above Target

October 30, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

The 2.8% increase in Q3 GDP is in line with expectations and another solid quarter to follow a 3.0% rise in Q2. The gain was led by a 3.7% rise in consumer spending but domestic demand looks healthy outside slippage in private sector construction. A slightly stronger than expected 2.2% rise in the c

U.S. October ADP Employment - Suggests underlying strength, even if payrolls prove more sensitive to weather

October 30, 2024 12:30 PM UTC

ADP’s October estimate for private sector employment growth of 233k is well above consensus and suggests underlying strength in the labor market. However ADP is not a reliable enough guide to payrolls to have us revising our forecast for a below trend 75k (40k in the private sector) increase in th

Eurozone GDP Review: Consumer Revival, Surveys Gloomier?

October 30, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

Even more clearly, the EZ economy is diverging as Germany stutters while Spain prospers.  However, the risks are that the whole of the EZ is weakening given the possibly gloomier messages from business survey data.  Admittedly, there were some upside surprises in the Q3 numbers, albeit with the un

U.S. October S&P PMIs - Manufacturing and Services see marginal improvements

October 24, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are marginally improved, with manufacturing still weak at 47.8 from 47.3 and services still healthy at 55.3 from 55.2. 

Eurozone Services Risks Clearer?

October 24, 2024 10:13 AM UTC

It is clear that PMI data are a key component of the data analysis of the ECB. We are somewhat sceptical of the data, at least in its ability to track GDP growth coincidently and accurately.  But the data does offer a wide-ranging insight into private sector economic momentum.  With this in mind t

Deceleration Trend Continues: South Africa’s Inflation Cooled to 3.8% YoY in September

October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account

U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Picture remains weak

October 23, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

September existing home sales are weaker than expected, falling 1.0% to 3.84m to the lowest level since October 2010. The softer data contrasts some signs of stronger housing demand in some September surveys, but signals for October are mixed.

U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Down overall but single family sector rises

October 18, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

September housing starts and permits both saw modest declines, the former near consensus at -0.5% to 1354k, the latter a little weaker than consensus at -2.9% to 1428k. Single family units however saw gains in both series, which suggests some underlying improvement. 

U.S. September Retail Sales continue to show resilience, Initial Claims correct lower

October 17, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

September retail sales show the consumer sustaining solid momentum through Q3 with a stronger than expected rise of 0.4% overall, 0.5% ex autos and impressive gains of 0.7% both ex autos and gasoline and in the control group that contributes to GDP. Initial claims in the survey week for October’s

UK CPI Review: Inflation Below Target – BoE Hawks Placated?

October 16, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021.  This drop was greater than expected and

Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The

Canada September Employment - Stronger particularly in the details but wages slower

October 11, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

Following four straight fairly unimpressive reports, Canadian employment gained momentum in August with a stronger than expected 46.7k increase in employment that looks stronger still in its details, and a dip in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.6%. The data will make pleasant reading to the Bank of Cana