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October 07, 2024

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UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only one of

October 04, 2024

U.S. September Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

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U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

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BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

October 03, 2024

U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC

Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi

October 02, 2024

U.S. September ADP Employment - Stronger increase consistent with lower initial claims
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

ADP’s September estimate for private sector employment growth of 143k is on the firm side of expectations and stronger than in July or August. This follows lower initial claims data in September. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we continue to expect a similar 150k rise in priva

October 01, 2024

U.S. August JOLTS report sees Job Openings rebound, ISM Manufacturing unchanged with mixed detail
Paying Article

October 1, 2024 2:26 PM UTC

August’s JOLTS report shows quite a sharp rise in job openings, by 329k to 8.04m, more than fully erasing a 199k decline in July but not June’s 320k drop. Trend remains negative, but only modestly. September’s ISM manufacturing index is unchanged at 47.2, with mixed detail.

September 27, 2024

Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo

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Banxico Review: 25bps Cut as Expected, But Not Unanimous
Freemium Article

September 27, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

Banxico cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 10.5%, but the decision was not unanimous, with one dissenter favoring a higher rate. Weak domestic growth and softening core CPI suggest further cuts are likely, though caution is needed due to market volatility. Banxico’s minutes will provide more clarity

September 26, 2024

U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Still weak but may be near a base
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

August pending home sales with a marginal 0.6% increase fell slightly short of expectations following a sharp 5.5% decline in July, though with July’s dip having followed a 4.8% increase in June the trend is probably only marginally negative now.

U.S. GDP revisions, Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders details mostly positive
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Initial claims at 218k from 222k have fallen further though last week was revised up from 219k, putting the level at the least since May 18 and suggesting no further weakening of the labor market in September. Unchanged durable goods orders have held up better in August after July’s 9.9% aircraft-

September 25, 2024

U.S. August New Home Sales - Down but resilient after strong July
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

August new home sales are down by 4.7% to 716k but have held up better than expected after July’s unexpectedly strong outcome, which was revised even higher to 751k from 739k, making July’s reading the highest since February 2022.

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2024
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2024.

September 24, 2024

U.S. September Consumer Confidence - Present situation slides sharply
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

September consumer confidence contrasts stronger Michigan CSI data with a fall to 98.7 from 105.6 in August (which was revised up from 103.3). The data shows a sharp slide in the present situation with expectations also down as well as a weaker labor market view. Inflation expectations however edged

September 19, 2024

U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Downtrend resumes but may bottom soon
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

August existing home sales with a 2.5% decline to 3.86m have resumed a downtrend after a 1.5% July increase. This is consistent with most housing sector survey evidence through August but signals for September are more positive, which Fed easing should assist.

September 18, 2024

U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Hints of improvement
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

August housing starts and permits are stronger than expected, starts up 9.6% to 1356k and permits up 4.9% to 1475k. The gains more than fully reverse respective July declines of 6.9% and 3.3% and hint that expectations for Fed easing may be starting to provide some support. 

September 17, 2024

U.S. September NAHB Homebuilders Index - Off the low, led by 6-month expectations
Paying Article

September 17, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

September’s rise in the NAHB homebuilders’ index to 41 from 39 is the first increase in the index since March reached 51 and suggests expectations for Fed easing are starting to have an impact.

U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos lead bounce, though revisions negattive
Freemium Article

September 17, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

August industrial production with gains of 0.8% overall and 0.9% in manufacturing has surprised clearly on the upside. The gain was led by a rebound in autos from a weak July but manufacturing ex autos saw a 0.3% increase to erase two straight preceding declines.

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U.S. August Retail Sales continue to show resilience
Paying Article

September 17, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

August retail sales have held up a little better than expected with a 0.1% increase though this is largely because autos were more resilient than industry data had suggested. Gains of 0.1% ex autos and 0.2% ex autos and gasoline were marginally softer than expected.

September 16, 2024

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - first positive since November
Paying Article

September 16, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

September’s Empire Sate manufacturing index of 11.5 from -4.7 is the first positive since November 2023 and the strongest since April 2022. The series is volatile and should be read cautiously but argues against recent signs of economic slowing extending into risk of recession.

September 13, 2024

U.S. September Michigan CSI - Higher, including long-term inflation expectation
Freemium Article

September 13, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

September’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 69.0 from 67.9 is slightly firmer, with both current conditions and expectations contributing. Inflation expectations are mixed, but a rise in the 5-10 year view outweighs a fall in the 1-year view.

September 12, 2024

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Argentina CPI Review: 4.2% only in August
Paying Article

September 12, 2024 2:18 PM UTC

Argentina’s CPI rose 4.2% in August, surpassing market expectations, with Y/Y inflation falling to 236% from 260%. Public service tariff adjustments, particularly in Transport and Housing, were key inflation drivers. Food prices increased 3.5%, while goods CPI grew 3.2%, suggesting a slowing infla

September 11, 2024

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Brazil CPI Review: Drop on Electricity Prices Warrants Stability in August
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 10:31 PM UTC

In August, Brazil’s CPI remained stable at 0% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.2% from 4.5% in July. This stability was driven by declines in the Housing group and food prices. Education and household expenditures increased by 0.7%, while the Transport group stayed unch

Preview: Due September 12 - U.S. August PPI - In line with a subdued underlying trend
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in August PPI, matching the outcome of July, while the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade both increase by 0.2%, all suggesting a subdued underlying picture. 

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U.S. August CPI - Core at a four month high led by shelter and air fares
Freemium Article

September 11, 2024 12:59 PM UTC

August core CPI has disappointed to the upside with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy with the rise being 0.28% before rounding, a four month high. Overall CPI rose by 0.2% as expected, and by 0.19% before rounding. The data is likely to ensure that the FOMC eases by only 25bps in September. Shelter an

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UK GDP Review: More Mixed Messages Give BoE Food for Thought
Freemium Article

September 11, 2024 6:34 AM UTC

Surprising to the downside, the economy failed to show more positive signs with the July GDP data.  Indeed, GDP was flat in m/m terms for the second successive month, compared to a 0.2% m/m rise widely envisaged.  Thus the data still show showing volatility, as GDP growth has been positive in only

September 10, 2024

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Mexico CPI Review: 0% Inflation in August as Expected
Freemium Article

September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati

September 06, 2024

Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem

U.S. August Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

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U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower

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Eurozone: Sobering Services and Domestic Demand News is Food for ECB Doves
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 10:53 AM UTC

The fact that EZ growth was revised down a notch to 0.2% in Q2 is of little importance – it partly reflects a small recovery in imports that we have been flagging for some time would be a likely break on recorded activity.  Over and beyond more signs of slowing wage pressures in Q2 data, more not

September 05, 2024

U.S. August ISM Services - Still showing modest expansion
Paying Article

September 5, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

August’s ISM services index at 51.5 is almost unchanged from July’s 51.4 and implies an economy continuing to expand at a modest pace. Employment at 50.2 is down from July’s 51.1, but in being above the neutral 50 remains stronger than the readings seen from February through June.

U.S. August ADP Employment - Losing momentum, but initial claims suggest a healthy labor market
Paying Article

September 5, 2024 12:46 PM UTC

ADP’s August estimate for private sector employment growth of 99k is below expectations and consistent with a continued slowing of the labor market, with the gain being the slowest since January 2021. While the data suggests some downside risk to non-farm payrolls, our private sector payrolls call

September 04, 2024

U.S. July JOLTS report on Job Openings - Gradual slowing in trend continues
Paying Article

September 4, 2024 2:27 PM UTC

July’s JOLTS report is weaker than expected with job openings down by 237k to 7.673m, the lowest level since January 2021, though the monthly decline is not exceptional and the trend continues to be gradually slowing at a similar pace to recent months.

U.S. July trade deficit increases on lower auto exports, Canada moves into surplus on lower auto imports
Paying Article

September 4, 2024 12:55 PM UTC

July’s US trade deficit of $78.8bn is up from $73.0bn in June and the widest since June 2022, restoring a deteriorating trend after a correction lower in the deficit in June, though July’s deficit is not quite as wide as expected. July’s deficit was inflated by a weak month from auto exports,

September 03, 2024

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Brazil: GDP Surprises in Q2, Growing 1.4% (q/q)
Paying Article

September 3, 2024 3:07 PM UTC

Brazil's Q2 GDP grew 1.4% (q/q), surpassing expectations, driven by strong industrial growth and robust internal demand. Investment increased by 2.1%, while external demand lagged due to rising imports. Agriculture declined due to floods, but services grew steadily. With internal demand as the key g

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August
Freemium Article

September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Price Pressures Ease
Paying Article

September 3, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.12% yr/yr in August. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

September 02, 2024

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Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY
Paying Article

September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de