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April 17, 2025

U.S. Initial Claims low but Philly Fed plunges, mixed housing data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix

April 16, 2025

U.S. March Industrial Production - Strong Q1 ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC

March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.

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U.S. March Retail Sales - Autos lead bounce ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Respite Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall

April 15, 2025

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Argentina: Moving to Phase 3, Bands Flotation
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC

Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400

U.S. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 6-month expectations plunge, prices rising
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

April’s Empire State manufacturing index at -8.1 was weak, but less so than February’s -20.0. However looking at the details weakness in 6-month expectations and strength in prices shows tariffs are doing some damage.

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UK Labor Market – A Tale of Two Labor Markets?
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Policy-making is fraught with difficult decision making at the best of times.  But at present in the UK, such decisions are made all the more problematic given inconsistencies, if not conflicts, in the data backdrop, thereby making any reading of the economy all the more subjective.  Is employment

April 14, 2025

U.S. March NY Fed Survey shows near term consumer inflation expeactations up, but longer term still anchored
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the 1-year inflation view at 3.58% from 3.13%, reaching its highest since September 2023. However continued with the 3 and 5 year views still well anchored the Fed should feel relief at this data.

April 12, 2025

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Soaring Inflation Hits Two-Year High in March with 10.3% YoY
Paying Article

April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

April 11, 2025

U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Pessimism deepens further
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.

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Brazil CPI Review: March Acceleration, Hike Confirmation
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

March CPI in Brazil rose 0.6%, above expectations, pushing the annual rate to 5.5%. Broad-based price increases, especially in food, signal persistent inflation pressures. Core inflation, notably in services, is well above the BCB’s target, and external volatility adds risk. With activity and cred

U.S. March PPI - Some acceleration in core goods. but outweighed by weakness elsewhere
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

March PPI, like the CPI and February’s PPI, is surprisingly subdued at -0.4% overall, -0.1% ex food and energy with a modest 0.1% increase ex food, energy and trade. There is some sign of stronger inflation in core goods, but this outweighed by easing pressures in services, food and energy.

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UK GDP Review (Apr 11): Marked Strength in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

UK data can be erratic, but the hugely unexpected surge in February GDP numbers (Figure 1) looks hard to fathom.  A 0.5% m/m jump suggests the economy grew by an annualized 6%-plus in the month.  This is hard to square against the message from surveys and other data such as that for the labor mark

April 10, 2025

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U.S. March CPI - Pre-tariff momentum appears lower than was realised
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

March CPI comes as a pleasant surprise, a 0.1% decline overall led by an expected dip in gasoline, but the 0.1% rise ex food and energy is well below consensus and recent trend and suggests the inflationary pressures entering the trade war are lower than was previously thought. Initial claims, up 4k

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Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Returns To Positive Territory
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase

April 08, 2025

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Brazil: Credit Accelerating Despite Higher Rates
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 6:44 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has resumed raising the policy rate due to persistent inflation concerns, despite expectations of credit deceleration. In contrast, credit has accelerated in recent months, indicating that the credit channel through monetary policy may be compromised, increasing disi

April 07, 2025

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows caution, Consumer Survey more pessimistic
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 2:57 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey is weaker, though probably not by enough to shock the Bank of Canada. The survey was conducted in February, when tariffs were a worry but not yet a reality. 

April 04, 2025

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Argentina: Reserves Depleting, New Devaluation?
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 6:28 PM UTC

Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent

Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 1:22 PM UTC

Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.

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U.S. March Employment - A healthy picture, but can it persist?
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 1:01 PM UTC

March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera

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Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet

April 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont

U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:24 PM UTC

March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.

U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 1:13 PM UTC

Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.

April 02, 2025

U.S. March ADP Employment - Return to trend after a weaker February
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll

April 01, 2025

U.S. February Job Openings, March ISM Manufacturing - Worrying detail, though not yet a clear trend
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro

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EZ Data Review: Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services and Labor Market Messages?
Freemium Article

April 1, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Largely as expected, there was more supportive news in the March flash HICP numbers (Figure 1), with the headline down a notch and core down 0.2 ppt (the former to 2.2% and hence the lowest since last autumn).  Perhaps more notably services inflation slowed more clearly, dropping 0.3 ppt to 3.4%, a

RBA Review: Recognize Inflation Moderates and Upside Risk
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on April 1st kept rates at 4.1% with no change in forward guidance

March 31, 2025

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German Data Review: Lower Headline Amid Clearer Drop in Services Inflation
Freemium Article

March 31, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there had been signs that the downtrend was flattening out but this changed somewhat in February and again in the March preliminary numbers. Indeed, HICP inflation fell back from January’s 2.8% to a 3-mth low of 2.6% last month and then to 2.3% in Ma

RBA Preview: Favors CPI in Mid Range, No Imminent Cut
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on April 1st will keep rates at 4.1% and indicates no imminent cut

March 29, 2025

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Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
Freemium Article

March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC

Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B

March 28, 2025

U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.

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U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2025
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2025.

March 27, 2025

U.S. February Pending Home Sales - Correction from record low
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 2.0% February increase have corrected a 4.6% January decline that took the series to a record low, falling below even the April 2020 outcome seen at the height of the pandemic. 

U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Deficit remains very high, marginal good news from claims and GDP
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 1:14 PM UTC

The advance goods trade deficit of $147.9bn in February, while down from January’s record $155.6bn remains very high and suggests a sharp negative from net exports in Q1 GDP, while the inventory offset, +0.3% for wholesale and +0.1% for retail is modest. Initial claims remain low at 224k, while Q4

March 26, 2025

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Slips Even as Services Fail to Soften?
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals.  They may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for the core to 3.5%.  This came in spite of higher alcohol duties and no dro

March 25, 2025

U.S. March Consumer Confidence - Future expectations weakest since 2013
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.

March 24, 2025

U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slips below neutral but Services rebound
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing slipping back below neutral to 49.8 from 52.7, a sign that tariff concerns are having a negative impact, but services, less sensitive to tariffs, improved at 54.3 from 51.6.
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March 20, 2025

U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Unexpected bounce may be in part seasonal
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

February existing home sales have seen a very unexpected 4.2% rise to 4.26m, contrasting the evidence of some surveys, though the decline does not quite fully erase a 4.7% fall in January.

U.S. Initial Claims still low, March Philly Fed slower but still positive
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in

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UK Labor Market – Private Payrolls Stay Soft Amid Cost Pressures?
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

To suggest that the UK labor market is merely getting less tight misses the point entirely even given more signs of higher participation.  Amid continued reservations about the accuracy of official labor market data produced by the ONS, alternative and very clearly more authoritative data on payrol

March 19, 2025

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South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t

March 18, 2025

U.S. February Industrial Production - Autos led, but some underlying improvement
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

February industrial production has seen a stronger than expected 0.7% rise overall with an even more impressive 0.9% rise in manufacturing. Manufacturing ex autos was less impressive up by 0.3%, though this still means three straight gains.

U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts rebound but permits edging lower
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

February housing starts are stronger than expected with a rise of 11.2% to 1501k though this needs to be seen alongside a weather-induced 11.5% decline in January. Permits with a 1.2% decline to 1456k are in line with expectations and show a third straight modest decline.

March 17, 2025

U.S. NAHB NAHB Homebuilders Index - Weaker, but 6 month expectations stabilize
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

March’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has extended a recent weakening, falling to 39 from 42, reaching its lowest level since a matching August 2024. 

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U.S. February Retail Sales - Q1 looking subdued, but reasons unclear
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

February retail sales with a gain of 0.2% overall is unimpressive, particularly with January revised down to -1.2% from -0.9% while gains of 0.3% ex auto and 0.5% ex auto and gas fail to reverse respective January decline of 0.6% and 0.8%. However the control group, which contributes to GDP, with a

March 14, 2025

U.S. March Michigan CSI - 5-10 year inflation view highest since 1993
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

March’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 57.9 from 64.7 is the weakest since November 2022 with the fall led by future expectations. Consumers are particularly worried about inflation, with the 1-year view up to 4.9% from 4.3% and the more closely watched 5-10 year view at 3.9% from 3.5%.

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UK GDP Review: Previous Resilience Gives Way to Softer Surveys
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive.  The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi

March 13, 2025

U.S. February PPI - Core goods accelerate, but outweighed by weakness in services
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

February PPI is surprisingly subdued at unchanged overall with an even softer 0.1% decline ex food and energy. Much of the surprise comes from trade prices with ex food, energy and trade up by 0.2%, but even this is moderate. Initial claims at 220k from 222k suggest the labor market remains healthy.