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August 25, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 25, 2026 12:17 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Still firm, if with some slowing on prices
August 25, 2026 11:58 AM UTC
We expect a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders with a 0.7% increase ex defense and a 0.8% increase ex transport. This will suggest some loss of what remains healthy underlying momentum, though the slowing probably reflects prices more than volumes.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 25
August 25, 2026 9:19 AM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e
UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’
August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - TGA mooted to cash roll buybacks, but just semantics
August 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC
Brent stays limited by $95 out of latest exchanges; mkt waits on next key events
Speculation on TGA for buyback funding. Ultimately cash flow management for what are twist operations
US2s30s have flattened, but pivotally, and actions have not been making a good impression for the dollar
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 25
August 25, 2026 4:50 AM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e
August 24, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 25
August 24, 2026 3:27 PM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e
Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft
August 24, 2026 3:23 PM UTC
We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute
August 24, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
The immediate economic impact of the collapse of the US-Canada trade talks is likely to be modest, but not insignificant in the case of Canada. Where things move from here is uncertain, with Canadian retaliation due to be implemented on September 8, and risk of further mutual escalations after tha