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February 21, 2025
U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli
U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.
Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
February 20, 2025
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
February 20, 2025 2:50 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
February 20, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9.
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
February 20, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m. February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 20th
February 20, 2025 10:31 AM UTC
Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope
Bunds and ECB Easing/Trump Tariffs
February 20, 2025 8:03 AM UTC
It is highly likely in April that the U.S. will announce a 25% tariff on EU cars and pharmaceuticals (here) and also reciprocal tariffs against the EU. The majority could be implemented given Trump’s desire to raise revenue/dislike of the EU as well as negotiate trade deals. This