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June 12, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, Jun 15-19
June 12, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
U.S. Preliminary June Michigan CSI - Rebounds from a very weak May final as inflation expectations correct lower
June 12, 2026 2:43 PM UTC
The preliminary June Michigan CSI at 48.9 has seen a surprising bounce from May’s final and record low of 44.8 but is not far off May’s preliminary of 48.2. Gasoline prices remain high but have slipped from May’s highs though the dip in May’s final now looks overstated.
Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario. In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts. 10yr
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since