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February 02, 2026
Preview: Due February 10 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend
February 2, 2026 8:03 PM UTC
We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024.
Preview: Due February 11 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 2, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
USD flows: Shutdown postpones January non-farm payroll
February 2, 2026 6:26 PM UTC
While House Majority leader Johnson is still optimistic about getting the partial government shutdown resolved tomorrow (Tuesday), the Labor Department has no stated that the shutdown has already lasted long enough to cause Friday’s non-farm payroll to be delayed.
U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Broad based improvement
February 2, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
January’s ISM manufacturing index of 52.6 is up significantly from 47.9 in December and the highest since August 2022. While caution should be seen on one month’s data, the improvement is broad based and backed by several reginal surveys.
USD flows: Shutdown politics and economic data
February 2, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The US government is now in a partial shutdown which is expected to be resolved fairly soon, but probably only for two weeks. The December JOLTS report on labor turnover due on Tuesday February 3 may be delayed, but initial claims on Thursday February 5 and the key January non-farm payroll on Friday
EZ HICP Preview (Feb 4): Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further
February 2, 2026 12:07 PM UTC
HICP inflation had been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it seemingly stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, only to be revised down a further notch to 1.9% in the final HICP figu
Markets: Profit-Taking or More?
February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
• For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions. However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off. The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be
January 30, 2026
Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral
January 30, 2026 5:09 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.
Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair
January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis