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August 21, 2026
U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong
August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.
Canada June retail sales - Strong end to Q2, but July seen weaker
August 21, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
June Canadian retail sales with a 0.6% increase are slightly stronger than the 0.4% preliminary estimate made with May’s data and in real terms increased by an impressive 1.5%. This is supportive for Q2 GDP though the Q2 retail sales gain of 0.4% (not annualized) is moderate in real terms, if up 2
This week's five highlights
August 21, 2026 11:00 AM UTC
UK Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
FOMC Minutes Show Inter-meeting data seen as important
U.S. July Industrial Production Healthy excluding a dip in autos
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits Mixed
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However
August 20, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - Canada August Employment - A moderate month after a very strong one
August 20, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in August, a moderate gain to follow a very strong 75.1k in July, similar to the moderate 18.2k increase in June that followed a very strong rise of 87.8k in May. We expect unemployment to hold at 6.4%, after three straight declines.
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at