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March 24, 2026
Japan Outlook: A Perfect Window
March 24, 2026 3:59 AM UTC
• Private consumption is supported by real wage turning positive in 2026. The trend is solidified by early spring wage negotiation results, which major firms agree to hike stronger than 2025 levels. We revised 2026/27 GDP to +1% as wage gains likely to accelerate. We expect 2026 CPI to be s
March 23, 2026
Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges
March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC
· The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here). The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in in
Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces
March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
· For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027. A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi
Iran War Scenarios Updated
March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
· Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory. A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for
Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?
March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC
While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable. It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’. The question is whether