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May 20, 2026

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Eying risk and bonds out of Nvidia, auction and Minutes
Big picture, have some seen re-pricings within established ranges (EUR/USD 1.15-1.20 give or take)
Need to see more decisive developments on Iran and/or asset volatility to be making new strides
Global PMI data in focus 

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South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

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FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho

USD flows: Draft agreement talk forces mkt to hedge
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Al Arabiya News claim sees mkt forced to hedge
Many false dawns of course, but clearly the dominant focus now for the next few sessions

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - studies rising
Freemium Article

May 20, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation around resistance at the 1.3760 Fibonacci retracement

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

Eying risk and bonds out of Nvidia, auction and Minutes
Big picture, have some seen re-pricings within established ranges (EUR/USD 1.15-1.20 give or take)
Need to see more decisive developments on Iran and/or asset volatility to be making new strides
Global PMI data in focus 

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: BoE TSC cementing summer re-pricing
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Comments so far from BoE TSC largely go with the grain of the summer wait and see
Mkt has priced back its overly aggressive hike odds for June-July

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Range trade
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend (choppy) trade within the 184.00 - 185.00 range

EUR/USD flows: sideways session looking likely for now
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Subdued trade into next US events, needs more than brief buy the fact to offer UST relief
Expiries may be adding to the session's apathy
UK BoE TSC testimony offers interim interest

Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to correct lower, services stable but subdued
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

We expect a correction lower in May’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 53.5 from 54.5, but an unchanged S and P services PMI at a still subdued 51.0.

Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:31 PM UTC

We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:09 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 16.6000 - 16.8000 range

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited tests higher - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

The test of support at 1.5950 is giving way to a minor bounce from 1.5940

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated push higher

Psychology for major markets May 20
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 9:36 AM UTC

No Geopolitical Break/Through

Europe Summary and Highlights 20 May
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 9:36 AM UTC

UK CPI softer, but PPI firmer and focus elsewhere on future developments
Oil trims, but part of a wider holding pattern as mkt navigates more verbal noise than signal on Iran for now
Tech risk eyes Nvidia the next focus
US20yr auction an d Fed Minutes of interest for USTs

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 20th
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 9:06 AM UTC

Geopolitics Continue to Drive DXY
JPY Risk Further Losses
UK CPI Sedate For Now 

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY flows: A compelling argument for the BoJ to surprise with aggressive Operation Twist
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 8:53 AM UTC

Argument that the current BoJ mix is not being rewarded. Indeed, its being punished as trilemma narrative takes hold
A riff on 'Operation Twist' offers a strong way forward - hike policy rates while reduce the aggressive taper
Could actually be both macro supportive and market savvy
Best version of the

Chart USD/CHF Update: Pushing higher
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to anticipated gains

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Drifting lower
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 8:06 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Pushing higher
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 7:56 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a drift higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated tests lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

May 20, 2026 7:26 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade just below congestion resistance at 1.3400

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extend choppy trade above 210.40 low
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

Extending choppy trade from the 210.40 low as prices consolidate pullback from the 216.60 April current year high

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: CPI lower, but focus elsewhere
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 6:43 AM UTC

UK CPI below market showing core retreat, albeit stronger PPI highlighting Iran cost pressures
USD focus more of politics, geopolitics, yields and tech risk performance