EMEA Insights

December 03, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 3rd

December 3, 2025 10:04 AM UTC

ADP the focus with downside risks for the USD
JPY ought to be the biggest beneficiary of weak data
AUD looks attractive despite Q3 GDP miss
CHF weakness is welcome for the SNB

Chart USD/CHF Update: Leaning lower

December 3, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Choppy trade beneath resistance at the 0.8050 break level is giving way to a pullback

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure

December 3, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

Choppy trade beneath resistance at the 99.50 break level is giving way to selling interest

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Cautious trade

December 3, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

The test of resistance at the 0.8800 break level is giving way to a minor pullback

Chart EUR/USD Update: Studies rising

December 3, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Choppy trade above congestion support at 1.1600 is giving way to a bounce

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy in range - studies improving

December 3, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

The test below congestion support at 1.3200 is giving way to a steady bounce

USD, AUD, EUR flows: USD softer, AUD gains

December 3, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

USD generally lower, AUD strong as market prices in next RBA move as being a hike with Q3 Australian GDP stronger than the q/q headline data suggests.

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Shallow pullback from the 207.20 November high

December 3, 2025 7:58 AM UTC

Pullback from the 207.20 current year high has seen losses checked at support at 205.30, October high

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Under pressure

December 3, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

Under pressure, as prices extend pullback from the 1.7980 November high to reach the 1.7700 level

USD/JPY flows: Still in consolidation

December 3, 2025 5:37 AM UTC

USD/JPY in consolidation range

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 3rd

December 3, 2025 4:18 AM UTC

ADP the focus with downside risks for the USD
JPY ought to be the biggest beneficiary of weak data
AUD looks attractive despite Q3 GDP miss
CHF weakness is welcome for the SNB

Chart GBP/USD Update: Shallow pullback from 1.3275 high

December 3, 2025 1:55 AM UTC

Shallow pullback from the 1.3275 high to break the 1.3200 level has seen losses checked at the 1.3180 low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for retest of 1.1650 resistance

December 3, 2025 1:34 AM UTC

Extending consolidation below resistance at the 1.1650 congestion but bullish price action from the 1.1500/1.1470 November lows keeps pressure on the upside

AUD/USD flows: Knee-Jerk GDP Dip Quickly Reversed

December 3, 2025 1:05 AM UTC

Australia Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extend choppy trade within 182.00/180.00

December 3, 2025 12:55 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend choppy trade within the 182.00/180.00 range area

December 02, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 3rd

December 2, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

ADP the focus with downside risks for the USD
JPY ought to be the biggest beneficiary of weak data
AUD looks attractive if Q3 GDP is strong as expected
CHF weakness is welcome for the SNB

South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022

December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe

Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Trend marginally positive

December 2, 2025 5:33 PM UTC

We expect September industrial production, a released delayed while awaiting Labor Dep’t inputs, to rise by 0.1% with a matching increase in manufacturing. This would keep trend marginally positive.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 3rd

December 2, 2025 4:14 PM UTC

ADP the focus with downside risks for the USD
JPY ought to be the biggest beneficiary of weak data
AUD looks attractive if Q3 GDP is strong as expected
CHF weakness is welcome for the SNB

2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel

December 2, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter o

Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October

December 2, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.

Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline

December 2, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.

Europe Summary and Highlights 2 December

December 2, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

The USD made general gains through the European morning, most notably against the JPY, with USD/JPY rising 30 pips to 156.05.

Psychology for major markets Dec 2

December 2, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

USD still stuck in ranges

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Problematic?

December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo