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May 16, 2026
Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April
May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla
May 15, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 15, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
U.S. April Industrial Production - Led by a bounce in autos, but underlying trend positive
May 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
Following an upbeat Empire Sate manufacturing survey for May, April industrial production gives further evidence that the manufacturing sector is in good health, rising by a stronger than expected 0.7% overall with a 0.6% increase in manufacturing, though half of the latter came from autos.
U.S. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strength in both activity and prices
May 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
May’s Empire State manufacturing index at 19.6, up from 11.0 in April, is the highest since April 2022, giving further evidence that the manufacturing sector is holding up well despite the Middle east conflict.
Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?
May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC
In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly. It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’
USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC
A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo