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October 29, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Nov 7): Rate Cuts Driven Increasingly by Weak Economy
October 29, 2024 10:09 AM UTC
A fourth successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.0%) is widely seen at the looming Riksbank meeting (Nov 7), with the risk that it may even be the 50 bp move that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting. What seems clear is that inflation worries have subsi
October 28, 2024
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rebound from August dip
October 28, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim
Norges Bank Preview (Nov 7): Options A Little More Open?
October 28, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but now largely dissipated. The Bank has two policy meeting left this year – Nov 7 and Dec 19- but has offered no encouragement
FX Weekly Strategy: October 28th - November 1st
October 28, 2024 9:56 AM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
UK Budget and Gilts
October 28, 2024 9:35 AM UTC
The UK government is leaking parts of the October 30 budget to allow markets to adjust before the full announcement. While the new fiscal rule for debt/GDP could raise some modest concerns over increased supply for the gilt market initially, attention will quickly switch to the BOE November 7 and
October 27, 2024
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, October 28th - November 1st
October 27, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, October 28th - November 1st
October 27, 2024 6:00 PM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
October 25, 2024
Brazil: High Expenditure Levels Challenge Fiscal Stability
October 25, 2024 5:40 PM UTC
Brazil’s fiscal data through August shows a primary deficit of 2.3% of GDP, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue gains despite efforts to increase government income. Social transfers and unemployment benefits contributed to rising expenditures, now at 20.2% of GDP. The Central Bank’s recent
Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - Heading for a subdued Q3
October 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.
U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft slip, but ex transport showing signs of improvement
October 25, 2024 1:01 PM UTC
September durable goods orders fell by 0.8% in line with expectations with August revised down. Also to -0.8% from unchanged. The weakness of the headline however contrasts with a stronger than expected 0.5% rise ex transport, with August revised up to a 0.6% increase from 0.5%, hinting at underlyin
CBR Hiked Key Rate to Historic 21% Level
October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th