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December 17, 2025
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
December 17, 2025 6:56 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December S and P services PMI suggests downside risk even if its level at 52.9 remained above November’s ISM services index.
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October and November Industrial Production - Net marginally positive
December 17, 2025 6:25 PM UTC
The Fed will release October and November industrial production together, having received key input data from the non-farm payrolls. We expect a 0.1% decline in October to be followed by a 0.2% increase in November, with manufacturing up by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October.
South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November
December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled
December 17, 2025 1:41 PM UTC
The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b
DM Rates Outlook: 2026 Yield Curve Steepening Before 2027 Flattening
December 17, 2025 9:21 AM UTC
· Multi quarter, we still look for 50bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.35%. However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the assumed slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium ve
Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times
December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
· The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing. The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term
UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?
December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures. This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp