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May 13, 2024
China RRR and Rate Cuts
May 13, 2024 7:54 AM UTC
The latest China money supply and lending figures show that private household and business lending is very subdued. More need to be done to boost credit demand as well as credit supply. However, the authorities desires to avoid too much Yuan weakness will likely mean that the next move is a 25bp
Watts at Stake: India's Looming Power Shortage
May 13, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
India's power sector faces rising demand and power shortages, sparking fears of the most significant power shortfall in a decade. With coal imports continuing to rise and hydropower generation declining, India's aim to become a manufacturing hub could become challenging. Energy transition is likely
USD/JPY flows: BoJ Purchase decrease and Kato's remark Affecting JPY
May 13, 2024 4:37 AM UTC
Japan's Kato says its natural that monetary policy will revert to positive interest rates
Bank of Japan has reduced the amount of 5-10yr JGBs purchased in its latest operation from 475bn JPY to 425bn JPY, comparing to last operation.
May 12, 2024
May 10, 2024
Preview: Due May 21 - Canada April CPI - Headline stable but BoC core rates falling
May 10, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
April CPI will be closely watched as the last CPI release before the June 5 Bank of Canada meeting. We expect the yr/yr pace to be unchanged from January at 2.9% which was also the pace in January before February saw a brief dip to 2.8%. However we expect continued steady downward progress in the Bo
Asset Allocation 2024: Tricky Seven Months Remaining
May 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
Fed easing expectations for 2025 and 2026 can shift from a terminal 4% Fed Funds rate towards 3%, as the U.S. economy slows due to lagged tightening effects. Combined with Fed easing starting in September this should mean a consistent decline in 2yr yields. However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields wil
Canada April Employment - Trend still solid, suggesting no urgency for BoC easing
May 10, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
Canada’s 90.4k increase in April employment is well above expectations and raises doubt over the case for a June rate cut, this being the last employment report the Bank of Canada will see before its June 5 meeting. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.1% but wage growth (hourly wage fir permanent empl
UK GDP Review: Clearer Growth Momentum But Mainly Import Led?
May 10, 2024 6:26 AM UTC
The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is much clearer than any expected with GDP growth notably positive. Indeed, coming in more than expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in March accentuating the upgraded boun