View:
September 23, 2026
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
September 23, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027
September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
· The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated. Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig
U.S. September S&P PMIs - Sharp gains in Manufacturing and Services back improved Q3 GDP signals
September 23, 2026 2:12 PM UTC
September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are startlingly strong, manufacturing at 57.0 from 53.9 and services at 58.7 from 56.5. The composite increased to 58.4 from 56.0. The numbers are consistent with a Fed view that the economy has strengthened recently, with recent data also suggesting that Q3
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade
September 23, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1.
Europe Summary and Highlights 23 Sep
September 23, 2026 10:07 AM UTC
Dollar retains broad bid, moving with spreads on the post Fed action
EUR/USD sees follow through to next support after clearing 1.1450, cable extends toward fib
Despite this, notable positive surprise in EZ PMI, orders to 4 year highs - one to watch
UK PMI in contrasts slightly disappoints if staying i
China and Brazil Outlook: Geo-Politics and Artificial Intelligence
September 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
· China’s growth momentum continued to be sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. Growth is however imbalanced with subdued consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we kept our forecast at 4.4% for 2026 and 4
EZ PMIs Shows Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
EZ PMIs Shows Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - Dollar stretches firmer with spreads
September 23, 2026 7:01 AM UTC
Dollar extends its broad post Fed gains, as Fed speakers maintain hawkish skew; Oct hike just above 50-50
EUR/USD tracks short end spread action; eying oil and relative impact going forward
Brent sitting below $100, talking up Iran prospects
DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value
September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC
*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re