View:
October 07, 2026
DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads
October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC
· The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium. However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move. Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti
October 06, 2026
BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on
October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn
BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on
October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn
Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing
October 6, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s
Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing
October 6, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 6, 2026 11:43 AM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 6, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Europe Summary and Highlights 6 Oct
October 6, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
Europe
The USD is stabilising in Europe after a bounce in Asia. USDJPY rejecting the 158.00 key level, has produced some caution among the USD bulls. Additionally, though a report suggests that the BOJ in October will declare that 2% inflation has been meet, the BOJ is only expected to hike by 25