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January 08, 2026
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
January 8, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 8, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
January 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug
U.S. October trade deficit plunge not sustainable, Initial Claims still low, Unit Labor Costs fall but Non-Labor Costs surge
January 8, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
The big shock in the latest data is a dramatic fall in October’s trade deficit to $29.4bn from $48.1bn, to its lowest level since February 2009. This will lift Q4 GDP estimates and give Trump a political boost as the Supreme Court prepares to make a judgement on his tariffs. However the strength,
UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?
January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n
FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 8th
January 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
USD focus on Friday’s employment report and Supreme Court ruling
Risks are tow way, but nerves around the Supreme Court could weigh initially
Jobless claims data unlikely to support a USD negative picture
EUR starting to look vulnerable
Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath
January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow