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March 31, 2025
U.S. Trade Surplus Countries: No Special Treatment?
March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC
Quick dilutions of tariffs or exemption will likely be slow in coming for countries that the U.S. has trade surpluses with, as the Trump administration are currently more focused on tariffs for tax revenue and trying to switch production back to the U.S. than trade deals. Trade policy uncertainty
March 30, 2025
March 29, 2025
Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
Canada January GDP - Looking healthy ahead of the trade war
March 28, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
January Canadian GDP with a 0.4% increase was even stronger than the preliminary 0.3% estimate made with December’s report. Canada’s economy was clearly gaining momentum ahead of the emerging trade war. The preliminary estimate for February is unchanged. Negatives may follow as the trade war esc
U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa
Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of
March 27, 2025
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large
March 27, 2025 5:46 PM UTC
We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022.
Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite
March 27, 2025 2:52 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best.
Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI
March 27, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p
U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Deficit remains very high, marginal good news from claims and GDP
March 27, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
The advance goods trade deficit of $147.9bn in February, while down from January’s record $155.6bn remains very high and suggests a sharp negative from net exports in Q1 GDP, while the inventory offset, +0.3% for wholesale and +0.1% for retail is modest. Initial claims remain low at 224k, while Q4
Norges Review (Mar 27): Policy Easing Delayed but Far From Abandoned?
March 27, 2025 10:01 AM UTC
As was perhaps just the more likely case, the Norges Bank did not deliver on the rate cut it had been flagging very clearly until recently. Instead, it kept the policy rate at 4.5% on the back of inflation having been markedly higher than expected and where wage growth in 2024 turned out higher th
Car Tariffs Then Lenient Reciprocal Tariffs?
March 27, 2025 8:59 AM UTC
The 25% tariffs on cars underlines that tariffs are not just about getting better trade deals, but in Trump’s view raising (tax) revenue and trying to shift production back to the U.S. Combined with other tariffs being implemented, plus policy uncertainty, we see a moderate overall hit from t