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June 03, 2026

USD flows: Disquiet as fractious standoff continues
Paying Article

June 3, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Oil creeping back higher as flare ups continue and talks remain apparently stalled
Dollar back to a slight bid albeit still within recent frozen uncertain ranges

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Weighing on 1.6200 level
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June 3, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Weighing on support at the 1.6200 level following rejection from resistance at the 1.6350/1.6400 congestion area

USD/JPY flows: Supplementary Budget Approved
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June 3, 2026 4:54 AM UTC

Japan approves $19bn supplementary budget

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 3rd
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June 3, 2026 4:43 AM UTC

U.S. Weekly ADP data remains firm
And Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift For ISM Service
DXY Choppy in range

AUD/USD flows: Q1 GDP Miss
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June 3, 2026 3:21 AM UTC

Australian Q1 GDP Miss

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend consolidation within 1.3500/1.3400
Freemium Article

June 3, 2026 1:22 AM UTC

Back in consolidation within the 1.3500/1.3400 area following bounce from the 1.3367 low last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower in consolidation
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June 3, 2026 1:13 AM UTC

Leaning lower in consolidation following rejection from resistance at the 1.1655/80, 30 April low and 200-day MA

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Test strong resistance at 186.00/23
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June 3, 2026 12:58 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from test of strong resistance at the 186.00/23 congestion and 20 April low

June 02, 2026

Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
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June 2, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower in range
Freemium Article

June 2, 2026 4:21 PM UTC

Consolidation around resistance at 1.3840 is giving way to a minor pullback

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Argentina Country Risk Rating
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June 2, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

Argentina’s overall risk remains medium high. 

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC's Greene more hawkish, but no great surprise
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June 2, 2026 3:21 PM UTC

MPC's Greene gives the more hawkish perspective on acting sooner rather than later

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Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
Freemium Article

June 2, 2026 3:20 PM UTC

We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 3rd
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June 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. Weekly ADP data remains firm
And Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift For ISM Service
DXY Choppy in range

GBP/USD flows: Decent US data again
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June 2, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

JOLTS data firm again, still a resilient US story

U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so
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June 2, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Higher in EUR- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

June 2, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

Cautious trade following the test of congestion resistance at 186.00 is giving way to a fresh test higher in both EUR- and JPY-driven trade

EUR/CHF, CHF/JPY flows: SNB Schlegel reiterates increased readiness to intervene
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June 2, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

While accepting that real appreciate is clearly less than nominal, SNB chairman Schlegel at an event in Bern reiterates again the Bank’s raised readiness to intervene to deal with overvaluation pressure due to the Middle East conflict.
This pits the CHF on the opposite side of the fence to the yen

Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
Paying Article

June 2, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May. 

Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
Paying Article

June 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly

Chart USD/RUB Update: Gains to remain limited
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June 2, 2026 12:27 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a push higher

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Choppy trade - background studies under pressure
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June 2, 2026 11:49 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 16.2500 has been pushed back from 16.3850

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending gains
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June 2, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 1.6100 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Choppy trade - daily studies turning higher
Paying Article

June 2, 2026 10:39 AM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 0.9150 is giving way to anticipated consolidation

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 2nd
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June 2, 2026 9:56 AM UTC

Some calm after Lebanon intervention but uncertainties remain
Mkt remains a binary trade driven by dollar haven swings