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August 31, 2026
Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so
August 31, 2026 3:19 PM UTC
We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
August 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
August 31, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
UK External Account: The Ugly and the Good
August 31, 2026 11:02 AM UTC
· The UK has seen a ugly persistent worsening of the EU goods trade deficit since leaving the EU in 2020, but two current account trends are good. The UK is helped by a surging services surplus and also a pick-up in investment income from UK portfolios invested overseas. Nevertheless, G
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Aug 31 to Sep 4
August 31, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 1-4
August 31, 2026 3:30 AM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m
August 28, 2026
U.S. March 2026 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revised Down by a Marginal 79k
August 28, 2026 6:09 PM UTC
The preliminary estimate for the revision to the March 2026 non-farm payroll benchmark was overshadowed by today’s speech from Fed’s Warsh. It turned out to be marginal, a negative revision of 79k, a stark contrast to a 911k downward preliminary estimate for the March 2025 benchmark revision ann
September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech
August 28, 2026 4:19 PM UTC
After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf
September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech
August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf
DM Data Weekly Sep 1-4
August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
US Payrolls data arrives at a time when the Fed seems to need reasons not to tighten rather than to tighten
EZ HICP also comes as the ECB is doubling down on Sep, and a hawkish minority is looking for more restriction, faster
BoE Bailey speech watched to see if the BoE remains a dovish outlier
G20 also
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 1-4
August 28, 2026 3:53 PM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar firms out of Warsh; GBP the rates laggard?
August 28, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
Warsh in line with colleagues in characterising policy as unrestrictive and focus on prices, with work to do
Follows an ECB also primed to hike and with a minority their also moving more hawkish
BoE (and GBP?) might be the laggard unless Bailey also changes tact next week
Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
August 28, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos
Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
August 28, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos
Canada Q2 GDP shows strength in exports and domestic demand
August 28, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP increase of 3.3% annualized is in line with expectations but the breakdown is more positive than we expected with a 3.9% increase in domestic demand. A positive contribution from net exports added 4.4% to GDP but this was more than fully offset by a sharp negative 0f 4.9% from inve