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April 03, 2026
Preview: Due April 6 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
April 3, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm patrol is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earnin
April 02, 2026
Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2
April 2, 2026 5:41 PM UTC
We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued
April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment
U.S. February trade shows gains in both exports and imports, Initial Claims very low
April 2, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests a resilient economy ahead of the oil shock, with a narrower than expected February trade deficit of $57.3bn, and while up from $54.7bn in January shows strong rises in both experts and imports, by 4.2% and 4.3% respectively. Weekly initial claims at 202k from 211k are sur
Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March
April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno