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April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Not an extreme reaction to the energy shock
April 10, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
The preliminary April Michigan CSI of 47.6 from 53.3 is a record low but the monthly decline of 5.7 points, while significant, is not as large as a 7.7 point fall in March 2025 when tariff worries were building. Inflation expectations are up sharply on a one-year view, and modestly on a 5-10 year vi
Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2
April 10, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.
Canada March Employment - Subdued as expected but with a surprise bounce in wages
April 10, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment gain of 14.1k is in line with market expectations and not very impressive after a plunge of 83.9k in February that may have been exaggerated by weather. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.7% as expected. There was an upside surprise in wage growth, the hourly rate for perman
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
China: Oil boosts PPI but CPI Less
April 10, 2026 7:37 AM UTC
• Given lags and the still elevated oil prices for Q2/Q3 delivery it is likely that PPI will be further boosted in the coming months. This could boost 2026 China CPI by around 0.3-0.4% and we changed our 2026 forecast to 1.4% in the March Outlook (here) -- the higher price of Fertilizers wi