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July 01, 2026
Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks
July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC
El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning.
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l
June 30, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade
June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen
UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative
June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones. This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer. Such shots of real growth ar
U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs
June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 30, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed