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October 08, 2026
Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
October 8, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.
ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike
October 8, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point
ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike
October 8, 2026 12:46 PM UTC
Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point
US Initial Claims remain very low but not a clear signal for October's payroll
October 8, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Initial claims at 197k remain very low, down by 2k from 199k with last week’s number revised from 197k. Continued claims saw a modest upward correction of 17k, the first increase in five weeks, to 1.716k with last week revised to 1.699k from 1.701k.
October 07, 2026
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:41 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view
October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t