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December 02, 2025

AUD/USD flows: Unfazed by current account deficit
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December 2, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Australian current account deficit largest since 2016

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 2nd
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December 2, 2025 4:18 AM UTC

Eurozone CPI to have minimal impact
JPY gains likely to require weaker equities and/or intervention despite BoJ rate hike expectations
AUD preferred to EUR in risk positive markets
GBP back to pre-Budget levels – decline still expected longer term

USD/JPY flows: Rather Quiet Tuesday
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December 2, 2025 2:21 AM UTC

Quiet Tuesday So Far

Chart GBP/USD Update: Threatens deeper pullback from 1.3275 bounce high
Freemium Article

December 2, 2025 1:41 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the 1.3275 bounce high to retest support at the 1.3200 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.1650 resistance
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December 2, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

Saw rejection from resistance at the 1.1650 congestion as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

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New Dovish Fed Chair and U.S. Yield Curve
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December 2, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

·       The initial knee jerk reaction if NEC Hassett is nominated as Fed chair would be for further yield curve steepening in the 10-2yr area.  Even so, the dynamics of FOMC voting could mean that Hassett as Fed chair in itself does not deliver more Fed easing.  This is already evident wit

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Leaning lower within 182.00/180.00 range area
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December 2, 2025 12:59 AM UTC

Leaning lower within the 182.00/180.00 range area

December 01, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia - December 2nd
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December 1, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Eurozone CPI to have minimal impact
JPY gains likely to require weaker equities and/or intervention despite BoJ rate hike expectations
AUD preferred to EUR in risk positive markets
GBP back to pre-Budget levels – decline still expected longer term

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 2nd
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December 1, 2025 4:16 PM UTC

Eurozone CPI to have minimal impact
JPY gains likely to require weaker equities and/or intervention despite BoJ rate hike expectations
AUD preferred to EUR in risk positive markets
GBP back to pre-Budget levels – decline still expected longer term

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Weaker than expected but still in a tight range
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December 1, 2025 3:15 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.2 from 48.7 is weaker than expected and the signals of most if not all regional surveys, if not dramatically so. The index is the weakest since July but remains in a fairly tight modestly negative range, since moving above neutral in January and February.

Preview: Due December 10 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Stable trend
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December 1, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9% for a fourth straight quarter, with gains of 0.9% in both wages and salaries and benefit costs. 

Europe Summary and Highlights 1 December
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December 1, 2025 11:19 AM UTC

The USD was softer through the European morning, with EUR/USD gaining 30 pips to 1.1625 and USD/JPY extending overnight losses by 35 pips to 155.25. 

Psychology for major markets Dec 1
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December 1, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

USD still stuck in ranges but showing mild weakness

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Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments
Freemium Article

December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.

FX Weekly Strategy: December 1st-5th
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December 1, 2025 9:58 AM UTC

Risky currencies may struggle to rise further with S&P 500 approaching the highs
AUD still look good value relative to yield spreads
JPY could benefit from Ueda speech, and downside should be protected by intervention
GBP and EUR both look vulnerable

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending pullback from November high
Freemium Article

December 1, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

Sharply lower through support at the 1.4000 congestion and 1.3970 support to confirm a double top at the 1.4130/40, November highs

JPY flows: JPY firmer after Ueda as equities dip
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December 1, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

USD/JPY dips after Ueda comments helped by weaker equities

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited pullback, room for higher later
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December 1, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Edged lower from the .9350 resistance as prices consolidate gains from the .9180 low

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Higher in consolidation from .8750/.8737 support
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December 1, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the .8750/.8737 support as prices consolidate losses from the .8865, November YTD high

Chart USD/CHF Update: Lower in consolidation from .8100 range high
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December 1, 2025 6:26 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the .8100 range high as prices unwind overbought daily studies

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Leaning lower from 207.20, November YTD high
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December 1, 2025 6:03 AM UTC

Settling back from the 207.20 November current year high as prices unwind overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure
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December 1, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 100.36/100.40, November highs

AUD/USD flows: U.S. major equity indexes turn lower
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December 1, 2025 4:26 AM UTC

U.S. major equity indexes turn lower after initially opening gap

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, December 1st-5th
Paying Article

December 1, 2025 4:19 AM UTC

Risky currencies may struggle to rise further with S&P 500 approaching the highs
AUD still look good value relative to yield spreads
JPY could benefit from Ueda speech, and downside should be protected by intervention
GBP and EUR both look vulnerable

USD/JPY flows: Catch an early bid
Paying Article

December 1, 2025 2:10 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will raise rates if prices, economy move as forecast