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November 21, 2024
Trump International: DM Countries
November 21, 2024 7:06 AM UTC
Much uncertainty still exists on policy but in 2025 the EU will likely be under pressure from targeted new tariffs by the Trump administration, while also being asked to spend more on defense spending. Purchasing extra LNG and military hardware from the U.S. is one way towards a potential trade de
November 20, 2024
German Data Preview (Nov 28): Services Inflation Persists?
November 20, 2024 3:58 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below th
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
November 20, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
We expect a 2.3% increase in October existing home sales to 3.93m, a moderate rise after declines of 1.0% in September and 2.0% in August, but sufficient to move yr/yr data above zero at 2.1% for the first time since July 2021.
Eurozone: ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
November 20, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
It seems that worries about weaker growth are reverberating more discernibly and more broadly within the ECB. Indeed, the worries may now be at least twofold. Clearly, weaker growth risks possible (added) downside risks to inflation, with BoI Governor Panetta yesterday warning that restrictive mon
U.S. Equities: Exceptionalism v Valuations
November 20, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Momentum towards further deregulation, tech optimism, and the prospect of aggressive tax cuts could help the U.S. equity market in H1 2025 before the fear of higher yields and Fed Funds hurts in H2. 6100 could be seen H1 2025, before a softening to 5850 for end 2025 S&P500. We see
UK CPI Review: Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
November 20, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
Coming in higher than expected and a notch above BoE thinking, CPI inflation jumped to 2.3% in October. Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation had dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2
November 19, 2024
Brazil and Mexico Labour Productivity: A Headwind for Growth
November 19, 2024 12:03 PM UTC
Brazil and Mexico labour productivity has been stagnant in the last years, with both countries registering lower labour productivity levels than they were 12 years ago, with the gap with U.S. only widening. With both countries approaching full-employment, measures will need to be taken to foster gro
U.S.-Gilt Yields and Fed v BOE policy
November 19, 2024 10:07 AM UTC
We see scope for 10yr UK yields to diverge from the U.S. despite our new forecast of rising U.S. Treasury yields (here). We feel that the BOE will ease by more than the Fed in 2025 and ease selectively in 2026 before and after our forecast of Fed Funds hikes. Meanwhile, the UK fiscal stance is l