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September 04, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Sep 5th
September 4, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
US August employment data likely to be similar to July
USD downside risks on weak data likely greater than upside risks on strong data
Japanese wage data could impact BoJ expectations
UK delayed retail sales data needs to beat consensus to sustain better trend
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary
September 4, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st
July US trade deficit up as imports bounce, deficits with Canada and China increase
September 4, 2025 1:36 PM UTC
July’s US trade deficit of $78.3bn was not far off expectations, but up sharply from $59.1bn in June. Imports bounced by 5.9% after three straight declines, while exports saw a modest rise of 0.3% after two straight declines.
U.S. August ADP Employment - Trend now below 100k per month, Initial claims rise
September 4, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
ADP’s August estimate of private sector employment growth of 54k is only marginally below consensus but supports a picture of slowing employment growth in recent months, after a preceding 106k in July that corrected a 23k decline in June, while April and May both saw gains of less than 100k.
