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December 09, 2025
ECB Preview (Dec 18): Still in Good Place – or Even Better?
December 9, 2025 7:52 AM UTC
A fourth successive stable policy decision will be the almost inevitable outcome of the ECB Council meeting verdict on Dec 18, with the discount rate left at 2.0%. The likely unanimous vote will mask splits about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Co
December 08, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S and P PMIs - Only marginally lower, still healthy
December 8, 2025 4:11 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to both see very marginal slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.2 and services to 54.0 from 54.1. These will still leave the picture looking fairly healthy and there is little reason to expect a sharp fall in December, though we do see risks to the economy as le
Preview: Due Decemebr 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue
December 8, 2025 3:29 PM UTC
We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled
December 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 18): Policy to be Unchanged and little Move in Projections?
December 8, 2025 1:18 PM UTC
As we anticipated in our review, the Riksbank Board will be very pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%). GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confir
UK CPI Preview (Dec 17): Down Further from Likely Peak?
December 8, 2025 9:43 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus to 3.6%, the looming November numbers may show a same-sized fall to 3.4%, a six-month low. We see the core rate seen also dropping 0.2 ppt b
AI and U.S. Equities
December 8, 2025 8:50 AM UTC
· The AI story has driven broad momentum in the U.S. equity market, but will likely become narrower in 2026 and 2027, as not all big AI/tech companies will generate clear explosive revenue from areas outside cloud computing and semiconductor chips. Companies that are also dependent on e