Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sharp pullback in USD- and CAD-driven trade

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The anticipated test above congestion resistance at 1.3900 has been pushed back sharply from just beneath 1.3950 in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 3

September 2, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

Challenging backdrop as rising yields apply pressure, creates potential volatile correlations
Current default mode is squeezing both sides - CHF as the low yielder, risk counters on the other
JPY finds support, rotation incentives intensify
Sterling slipping in favour as hike laggard and amid global pr

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in both EUR- and JPY-driven trade

September 2, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to steady losses in both EUR- and JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. August ISM Services - Slightly firmer within a tight range

September 2, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

We expect an August ISM services index of 54.5, up from 54.1 in July but keeping the index in a tight range, which held between 53.6 and 54.5 between March and July. 

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit

September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: As you were out of ADP, mkt still digesting backdrop

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ADP broaldy within expectations, offers no new lean into payrolls
Minor adjustments on non-yielding (CHF) and risk sides
But otherwise contained trade, digesting how bond-risk-FX plays out near-term

U.S. August ADP Employment - Consistent with low hiring and low firing

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

August’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 38k is on the weak side of expectations, and a slight slowing from a subdued July of 46k (revised only marginally from 44k). 

Weekly Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower - sentiment and studies under pressure

September 2, 2026 12:01 PM UTC

Consolidation following the test of strong resistance at 1.1700, (congestion and 50% Fibonacci retracement), has given way to a pullback

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Poised to extend late-June losses

September 2, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a steady drift lower to support at 10.8000

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Fresh year highs in CHF-driven trade

September 2, 2026 10:22 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.9400 has given way to further gains

Europe Summary and Highlights 2 Sep

September 2, 2026 10:04 AM UTC

Bond pressure still in focus, risk somewhat weighed
Yen finding some support and renewed short switching to CHF
NZD continues to sell back from range tops after RBNZ, sell fact snowballs over session

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 2

September 2, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

RBNZ Hike by 25bps
Bank of Canada Risks on both sides 
U.S. August ADP Another subdued month

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending gains in USD- and CHF-driven trade

September 2, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Consolidation above 0.8100 has given way to anticipated gains

Psychology for major markets Sep 2

September 2, 2026 8:26 AM UTC

Risk Broadly Soft

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Pushing higher

September 2, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

Consolidation above congestion support at 99.50 has given way to anticipated gains 

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Cautious trade

September 2, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade within the 0.8560 - 0.8585 range

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower

September 2, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade above support at the 1.1578 low from 28-31 August

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure

September 2, 2026 7:45 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.3500

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Focus still on bond-risk-FX interplay

September 2, 2026 7:18 AM UTC

Focal point still on rising yields and the interplay with risk, and then to FX
USD/JPY finds supply and some rotation to CHF; maybe signs of tightening and renewed risk support

Weekly Chart USD/CNH: Consolidating, scope for bounce

September 2, 2026 6:17 AM UTC

Steadied at the 6.7150 August fresh year low as prices consolidate losses from the June swing high

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Sep 2

September 2, 2026 5:50 AM UTC

RBNZ Hike by 25bps
Bank of Canada Risks on both sides 
U.S. August ADP Another subdued month