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June 10, 2026
Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone
June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC
While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a
USD/CAD flows: BoC looking through inflation, watching risks
June 10, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
Unchanged with outlook presented in conditional terms
Core stance though is to look through inflation while being more on guard against downside risks especially from US trade deal renewal
Latter remains the main near-term risk for the CAD
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
June 10, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April.
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
Europe Summary and Highlights 10 Jun
June 10, 2026 10:01 AM UTC
Oil still checked even with exchanges, hope pinned on nuclear detail progress
Risk markets still seeing some pressure, though Nasdaq remains off yesterday's spike low
Some NOK support from CPI, but Norges Bank ahead of the curve
FX market remains in cautious n/t consolidation, US CPI next focus
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?
June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p
NOK/SEK flows: Cross currents
June 10, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
Firm data from both Norway (CPI) and Sweden (monthly output, GDP) , though both need to be seen in context
Norges Bank policy is already seen tight and well ahead of the curve
Cross currents from subdued oil amid nuclear progress hopes and risk market volatility
Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question
June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD
USD flows: Noise picking up, still risks of fresh volatility spikes
June 10, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
Market proving phlegmatic but session to session noise is picking up
Oil digests the latest exchanges, equity bars getting longer though off yesterday's spikes
US CPI one of the next key event risk alongside Iran news flow