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October 03, 2025
U.S. September ISM Services - Back to neutral, prices still firm
October 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index has slipped back to a neutral 50.0 after a bounce to 52.0 in August from July’s near neutral 50.1 . We had suspected that August data had been flattered by seasonal adjustments but seasonal adjustments do not fully explain the recent moves.
UK: BoE Inflation Expectations Worries Overdone
October 3, 2025 10:22 AM UTC
UK monetary policy is relatively loose, according to BoE MPC member Mann. But if the policy stance is so loose (something we refute), why is the real economy at best labouring, if not stalling. In this regard, the BoE have had conflicting data in terms of whether the labor market is loosening wh
15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September
October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted
October 02, 2025
FOMC Minutes from September 17 to show differing views on the future rates path
October 2, 2025 5:51 PM UTC
The Fed will continue to function during the government shutdown, and minutes from the September 17 meeting are due on October 8. They are likely to show a broad consensus in favor of the 25bps easing delivered at the meeting, but a variety of views on the appropriate path going forward. The indiv
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC
We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline.
Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam
October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in