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January 07, 2026
January 06, 2026
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger
January 6, 2026 7:53 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.
Turkiye’s Foreign Trade Deficit Increased in 2025 Despite TRY Slide
January 6, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary annual figures announced by the Ministry of Trade on January 6, Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit increased to USD92.2 billion in 2025 from USD82.2 billion in 2024, partly due to higher purchases of investment goods and raw materials. According to preliminar
German HICP Review: Headline and Core Down Afresh
January 6, 2026 4:25 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process resumed with a bang as December saw a larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation. Indeed, the headline HICP fell 0.6 ppt to a five-month low of 2.0%. This was largely food and energy driven but still with some fall in core at least according to
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
January 6, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December S and P services PMI suggests downside risk with its revised level of 52.5 from 52.9 now marginally below November’s ISM services index. Regional Fed service sector surveys are mos
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 6, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 6, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
Markets 2026
January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC
• For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7. However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b