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January 21, 2026
Trump on Greenland and the Fed
January 21, 2026 4:12 PM UTC
Trump has provided some relief to markets by stating that he will not take Greenland by force, though his tone towards Europe remains hostile, suggesting that he will impose tariffs, which may receive a limited European response. Separately Trump stated he would announce a new Fed Chair soon.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still
January 21, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December
January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, January 21st
January 21, 2026 4:00 AM UTC
UK CPI expected to show a small rise in December
GBP to remain under some pressure due to risk negative tone
USD unlikely to recover unless some progress is seen on Greenland
JPY weakness is illogical but needs BoJ intervention if it is to reverse
January 20, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, January 21st
January 20, 2026 10:00 PM UTC
UK CPI expected to show a small rise in December
GBP to remain under some pressure due to risk negative tone
USD unlikely to recover unless some progress is seen on Greenland
JPY weakness is illogical but needs BoJ intervention if it is to reverse
Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. December PPI - Rebound in trade to bring an above trend month
January 20, 2026 6:07 PM UTC
Despite signs in the CPI that inflationary pressure has slowed in Q4, we expect December PPI to show above trend gains of 0.4% both overall and ex food and energy. Ex food energy and trade however we expect a moderate gain of 0.2%, which would match November’s outcome in that series.