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September 17, 2026
USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows: Supply, expiries cap USD/JPY back; focus turns to BoE MPC
September 17, 2026 7:07 AM UTC
Consolidation of the post Fed move overall
USD/JPY weighed back from 156+ by supply and approaching large expiry at 155, ahead of key BoJ meeting
Focus today on the BoE, seen unchanged but judging the vote and the tone. Seen slowing QT
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Sep 17
September 17, 2026 6:39 AM UTC
Fed pivots to catch up with the curve on inflation, dots see 1 (to 2) more hikes
Swift turn does enough to bolster dollar, cable especially pressured unless BoE changes tune
USD/JPY runs into supply up here, with the BoJ Friday now critical, even more important it matches the pick up in pace
September 16, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 17
September 16, 2026 8:00 PM UTC
Fed pivots to catch up with the curve on inflation, dots see 1 (to 2) more hikes
Swift turn does enough to bolster dollar, cable especially pressured unless BoE changes tune
USD/JPY runs into supply up here, with the BoJ Friday now critical, even more important it matches the pick up in pace
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Key highlights from Fed SEP pivot, stepping $ higher
September 16, 2026 7:16 PM UTC
Key highlights from the FOMC Sep, as Fed funds projections lifted higher
Market expectations for this year validated with upside skew, 2027 slightly below though largest number see the extra hike delivered, narrowing the gap
EUR/USD breaks down to around 1.1475~, 61.8% retracement, with 1.1420 below
US
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Fed shifts gears, sees quick, short dash to get back up to the curve on inflation
September 16, 2026 6:22 PM UTC
Clear shift in emphasis to catching up to the curve on elevated inflation
Dots suggest the Fed is minded to catch up with a quick string of corrective tightenings this year before hoping to plateau at less accommodative FF
Speed of adjustment bolsters dollar, despite less hawkish long projections than
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: mind the gap - dots have a large one to bridge...
September 16, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
Looking back at the June SEP, dots shows what a large gap has developed to current mkt pricing
Uncertain, mixed FOMC may struggle to validate that leap and leave quite a large divergence behind
Interesting to judge markets' reaction to disagreement.
MMKT and bonds have got oversold in recent accelera
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha