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February 28, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 28th
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:58 AM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

AUD/USD flows: Risk continue to get sagged
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:11 AM UTC

The risk asset continue to get sagged

USD/JPY flows: Dragged by sentiment
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Japanese labour unions push for record wage hike amid rising costs
Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending rejection from 1.2700
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

Turned lower from test of the 1.2700 level as daily studies unwind the deep overbought readings to reach support at 1.2600

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:02 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend rejection from the 1.0500/33 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 156.16/00 support has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure to extend the broader losses from October high

February 27, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

...
Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

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Argentina: Recovery Complete?
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

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ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Poised for further losses
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a test above 18.5000
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for a test below 1.5000
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:38 AM UTC

The test above strong resistance at the 1.5070 Fibonacci retracement has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.5100

Psychology for major markets February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

The test of support at the 0.8900 break level and the 0.8910 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above congestion resistance at 0.8300 has not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 8:38 AM UTC

The test above resistance at 1.0500 has been pushed back from the 1.0533 current year high of 27 January

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Range-bound above 188.07 support
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

No change, with prices confined within a narrow range above the 188.07 support

CAD flows: CAD looks vulnerable
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

CAD looks vulnerable with tariff threat looming

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

Break above the 1.6600/33 resistance see prices extending bounce from the 1.6355 low of last week

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 5:07 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Sour
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:23 AM UTC

The broad risk sentiment is sour

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating recent movement
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:35 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited above the 1.2700 level
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:43 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 1.2700 level but pressure remains on the upside

Chart EUR/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from the 1.0500/1.0533 resistance
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:27 AM UTC

Settling back from retest of the 1.0500/33 resistance and January YTD high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but room for lower
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:12 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 156.16/00 support as prices settled into consolidation above the 155.80 low of last week

February 26, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 27th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

...
U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC

While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,

EUR, CAD flows: Trump tariff talk lifts CAD, hits EUR
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 6:19 PM UTC

The CAD has bounced and the EUR has slipped with Trump delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico to April 2 but also stating tariffs on the EU will be 25% on autos and unspecified other things. While Trump’s repeated delays regarding Canada and Mexico are losing him credibility he is still talking pos

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Minor consolidation has given way to further CAD-driven gains

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 27th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

U.S. January New Home Sales - Dip on weather, December revised higher
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 3:17 PM UTC

January new home sales at 657k are a little lower than expected though the surprise is offset by an upward revision to December to 734k from 698k, and January data probably saw some restraint for weather. The near-term outlook is probably negative given limited hopes for Fed easing, but fluid, with

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further consolidation
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 157.00

Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.