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October 04, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish

October 4, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3550 has reached 1.3590

Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Pushing higher in JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp JPY-driven bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement to reach 1.0960

U.S. September Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

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U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for still higher
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 102.00 has given way to a sharp break higher

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

Chart USD/TRY Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

No significant change

Chart USD/RUB Update: Further consolidation - background studies improving
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 11:38 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 96.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Focus on 4.3300 in PLN-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 4.3000 has been seen

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating gains
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 17.5000 has met selling interest beneath resistance at the 17.5930 monthly low of 30 August

Psychology for major markets October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD staying fiirm, employment report likely to be supportive 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

Little change, as overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 October
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 9:52 AM UTC

USD/JPY edged up through the European morning session, gaining around 30 pips to 146.40 and correcting some of the declines seen in Asia overnight.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

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BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:17 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 0.8550

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Sharp gains not sustained
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 8:03 AM UTC

The anticipated GBP-driven test above 0.8400/03 has met expected selling interest around congestion resistance at 0.8425

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced above 1.0980/00 - studies under pressure
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

The anticipated test lower has met buying interest above strong support at the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.1000

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Under pressure, August/September lows at risk
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

Rejection from the 11.8000 level see pressure returning to the downside to reach the 11.6500 support

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion at 1.3100 has met buying interest around 1.3090

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Under pressure from the 195.15/195.95 highs
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

Turning lower in consolidation from the 195.15/195.95 highs to pressure congestion at the 192.00 level

USD, JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n helped by Ishiba comments
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

JPY recovers helped by Ishiba announcing economic package to escape deflation, but quiet market likely ahead of the US employment report.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.3100 level, room for lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3100 level as prices unwind oversold intraday studies 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.1025/00 support
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:37 AM UTC

Extending sharp pullback from the 1.1200/14 high to retest support at the 1.1025/00, September lows

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating at 162.00 level, room for higher later
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:55 AM UTC

Settled back from the 162.50 high to consolidate gains from the 158.00 low

October 03, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 4th
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

Chart USD/CAD Update: Reversal higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

October 3, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have not been seen

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 4th
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

USD, GBP flows: USD firm on ISM but move looking extended
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

ISM generall strong except for employment index. USD may be toppy ahead of tomorrow's employment data

U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion around 162.00 has extended to 162.45~

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China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.  China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis.  Asia widespread banking cris

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Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 101.50 has given way to anticipated gains

U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.

Chart USD/RUB Update: Consolidating gains - studies rising
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 11:42 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 96.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 11:07 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test above congestion resistance at 4.3000

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - daily studies rising
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 3 October
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 10:14 AM UTC

GBP saw the biggest move in the European morning, with EUR/GBP gaining 80 pips to 0.8410 after an interview with BoE governor Bailey in the Guardian newspaper. 

Psychology for major markets October 3rd
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

USD stays firm, JPY under pressure, GBP breaking lower

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating test below 1.4900 - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

The anticipated break below the 1.4900 Fibonacci retracement ahs bounced smartly from 1.4875

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC

Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Higher in range
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade above 0.8450 has given way to a USD- and CHF-driven bounce