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September 14, 2026
Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
September 14, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 15
September 14, 2026 3:22 PM UTC
Spec data shows mkt turned long kiwi - often a contrary indicator
Risk sentiment turns weaker, squeezing dollar, as oil catches up with sentiment; AI complications
UK labour market data, followed by CPI, provide the run in to the next BoE meeting
Canada August CPI - Near consensus, but upside risks building
September 14, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
August’s Canadian CPI was stable at 3.0% yr/yr as expected with the Bank of Canada’s core rates broadly stable too. However the seasonally adjusted ex food and energy CPI (not one of the BoC’s core rates) saw a fourth straight 0.3% increase, and its yr/yr rate is picking up. Inflationary ris
Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower - studies under pressure
September 14, 2026 12:11 PM UTC
Consolidation within the 1.3500 - 1.3550 range is giving way to a fresh pullback, with prices once again pressuring pressuring support at the 1.3475 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.3500.
Daily stochastics and the daily Tension Indicator have turned bearish, highlighting a deterioration
Kiwi longs as a contrary indicator
September 14, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
Mkt turned long NZD in latest IMM week
That has tended to prove a contrary indicator rather than a bullish one more often than not
Descriptive stats show a skew towards downside kiwi corrections in the following window
May also be suggestive of wider current risk positioning in FX
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 14-18
September 14, 2026 9:42 AM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - carry switching on show, contrary indicator for kiwi
September 14, 2026 8:57 AM UTC
Spec market turns slightly JPY long for the first time since Apr
At the same time, CHF shorts pick back up on switching, now some 1.3stdev above average
Overall $ long pared back further, still net long but back within normal bounds, tempering headwinds
Mkt still short GBP, positioning may be tending t
Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears
September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
· For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year. Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027