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October 19, 2026
Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
October 19, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 20
October 19, 2026 3:30 PM UTC
France remains in focus, even if positioning and expiries help to cushion
USD long positioning was back to the extremes pre-CPI-reaction; euro crosses still struggle
A political winter of discontent asks FX questions of who comes out on top - CHF? JPY?
Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
October 19, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/USD flows - who comes out on top in a winter of discontent?
October 19, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
Euro propped by positioning, expiries, though crosses still slip
Near-term stretched action aside, big picture focus could increasingly revolve around politics of discontent
CHF carry continues to be challenged, and retraced, by its socio-economic safety
Canada September CPI - Softer core rates will comfort the BoC
October 19, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
September Canadian CPI edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% overall but this is softer than the 3.2% expected by the market. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates all moved lower. This suggests that despite concerns over oil, the BoC need feel no urgency to tighten at this month’s meeting.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 19-23 October
October 19, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
US bonds and USD became overstretched, looking to rebalance n/t
Euro remains weighed crosses out of French disorder
Quiet week though event risks coming onto the horizon
Big picture cross-asset themes across bonds-equities-dollar relationships remain a background focus
UK CPI Preview: Further Increase Will Push the BoE to Hike in November
October 19, 2026 8:47 AM UTC
This week’s CPI headline is expected to continue to reflect the impact of the oil price shock with markets seeing an increase to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.1% before. To date, energy has been the main culprit behind the rise in headline inflation with goods also showing a modest increase (see Fi
UK CPI Preview: Further Increase Will Push the BoE to Hike in November
October 19, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
This week’s CPI headline is expected to continue to reflect the impact of the oil price shock with markets seeing an increase to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.1% before. To date, energy has been the main culprit behind the rise in headline inflation with goods also showing a modest increase (see Fi
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - $ longs were back to the extremes, prior to trimming
October 19, 2026 8:13 AM UTC
IMM data underscores that aggregate $ longs were back to near June extreme before profit-taking pullback kicked in
AUD, NZD, GBP were all a 2stdev+, euro a little less at 1.5 if still most since 2015
So positioning $-centric, not particularly euro (France) skewed
$-wide positioning reflected in the p
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD flows - French disorder; Lagarde dovish on bond spillover
October 19, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
Consolidation overnight, French riots and dovish Lagarde counter-weight to recent USD correction
Firm China data offers some AUD support out of recent pullback
BoJ Ueda notes inflation close to price goal, supportive