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February 26, 2026
AI, Fed and Inflation and Disinflation Risks
February 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC
• Existing Fed officials and Fed chair designate Warsh have divergent views on the impact of AI in boosting productivity and whether this means lower inflation/policy rates or high business investment/electricity prices argues against lower policy rates and potentially meaning a higher shor
February 25, 2026
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather adding to downside risk
February 25, 2026 5:45 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to see a weak month in January, falling by 0.7% overall, with declines of 0.4% ex auto and 0.2% ex auto and gasoline. Bad weather late in the month will contribute to the decline.
Preview: Due March 2 - U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - Correcting lower but still positive
February 25, 2026 4:01 PM UTC
We expect February’s ISM manufacturing index to correct lower to 50.5 from January’s sharply improved 52.6, though this would still deliver a second straight positive reading to follow ten straight negatives.
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation as Goods May Soon Take Core Below Target
February 25, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is possible that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next. Indeed, we see the headline rate edging up to 1.8% in the February flash mainly due to ener
China: Housing Not Bottomed Yet
February 25, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
• We do not feel that China residential property market has bottomed, as it faces two cyclical and two structural headwinds. Cyclically outstanding inventory of complete houses remains high, while households are also suffering from low income and employment growth. Structurally populati