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July 23, 2024

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China: The Squeezed Middle and Bottom 50%
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle. This is one of the key reasons why we forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 8:09 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade - room for a test above 0.8900
Freemium Article

July 23, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Further consolidation - limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Further consolidation - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above 1.2894/00 - daily studies falling
Freemium Article

July 23, 2024 7:22 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating above 202.00 support, scope for break
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

Extending consolidation at the 202.00 level as prices unwind the oversold daily studies

AUD, JPY flows: AUD remains under pressure, JPY firm
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

AUD/JPY declining as regional risk sentiment remains weak.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:46 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

AUD/USD flows: Risk sentiment broadly soft
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:45 AM UTC

Risk sentiment is broadly soft

USD/JPY flows: Looks like the turn has begun
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD/JPY dipped another half a percent without catalyst 
Vice President Harris has secured enough delegates

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 2:09 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at the 1.2900 congestion

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating, room for deeper corrective pullback
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:41 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.0900 level and consolidation above the 1.0872 support see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but scope for lower to extend the July losses
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains in consolidation below the 172.00 resistance with pullback kept in check at the 170.00 level

The Aussie Chapter 5: Kiwi, a tale of two cities
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ki

July 22, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Still firm, if a little less so
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:19 PM UTC

We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 1.0%, a slight slowing from Q1’s 1.2% but in line with recent trend, and keeping the picture quite strong.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to fresh gains

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

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German Data Preview (Jul 30): Inflation Stable Ahead of Fresh Fall in Coming Months?
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 3:10 PM UTC

Base effects have caused the German disinflation process not to be smooth and this was even more clearly the case in recent numbers where after a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline HICP rate occurred rising 0.4 ppt to 2.8% in May was followed by a drop back to 2.5% in June, 0

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Turning down - studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

The bounce from congestion support at 170.00 has failed to test levels above congestion resistance at 172.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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UK Household Wealth and the Pension Predicament
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

Unlike some other parts of the DM world, UK households have seen a serious dent put into their stock of wealth in the last two years.  Indeed, household net worth fell in both 2022 and 2023, both in absolute terms and also as a % GDP (Figure 1).  The 2022 drop was very much a slump in pension fund

Chart USD/RUB Update: Further consolidation - daily readings under pressure
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 11:33 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on  congestion support at 88.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower, but immediate losses to remain limited
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 10:46 AM UTC

The anticipated limited break above congestion resistance at 4.3000 has not been seen

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating gains
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

The break above 18.2500 has been pushed back from 18.3720

European Summary and Highlights 22 July
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 10:01 AM UTC

The JPY made gains in late Asia/early European trading, dropping a figure to 156.30 before making a modest recovery through the European morning.

Psychology for major markets July 22nd
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 10:01 AM UTC

EUR steady, JPY firm.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidation turning higher
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a bounce

FX Weekly Strategy: July 22nd-26th
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

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China: Surprise 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate Cut
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 8:41 AM UTC

China 10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate and 1 and 5yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was sooner than expected, as a move had not been anticipated until the Fed cuts rates.  However, this is not the start of a new aggressive policy phase, but rather a tactical move given the targeted nature of easing.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Further consolidation - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 8:20 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for a test above 0.8900
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 8:13 AM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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Biden Drops Out, But Yield Curve Still to Steepen
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

President Joe Biden dropping out will create more uncertainty about the U.S. presidential race, but also crucially mean that the House of representative race is a close call.  This could stall some Trump trades, though we still see a swing to a positive 10-2yr U.S. Treasury yield curve – given Fe

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidation to give way to further losses
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies extend cautious trade

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending gains from 1.6020/00 lows
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

Consolidating below the 1.6285, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, has given way to break higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced above 1.2894/00 - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

Little change, as price action extends cautious trade 

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Weighing on the 202.00 support
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 202.00 congestion has given way to fresh selling pressure

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e July 16th
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

Net long GBP positioning extends further to new record. CHF and CAD shorts also make new highs. 

JPY flows: JPY opens firm in Europe
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

JPY gains strongly at European open without obvious trigger but US politics a focus

AUD/USD flows: Dragged by PBoC's policy changes
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 4:53 AM UTC

A series of easing from PBoC

USD/JPY flows: Biden pulled out of Presidential race, endorses Kamala
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 4:47 AM UTC

Joe Biden announced his decision to pull out from the presidential race and endorses Kamala Harris 

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, July 22nd-26th
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 4:27 AM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.2900 level, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:49 AM UTC

teadied at the 1.2900 level as prices consolidate losses from the 1.3045 high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Still room to extend corrective pullback
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:40 AM UTC

Edged off the 1.0875 low to consolidate losses from the 1.0948 high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 171.60/172.00 resistance
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:27 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from test of the 171.60/172.00 resistance