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June 20, 2025
China Outlook: Reasonable but Unbalanced Growth Trade
June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC
• China GDP growth remains reasonable though unbalanced. Net exports will take a hit from the trade freeze in April/May, with the impact likely to ease in H2 with the trade truce. We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tari
June 19, 2025
Hawkish Stance Maintained: CBRT Held the Key Rate Stable at 46% Despite Softening Inflation
June 19, 2025 7:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate unchanged at 46% during the MPC on June 19 despite inflation continues to ease. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved via a sustained decline in in
BoE Review : Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish Hold
June 19, 2025 11:51 AM UTC
A stable BoE policy decision was always the most likely (Bank Rate staying at 4.25%) as the MPC discussed its two alternative scenarios still, but possibly where hawks have been forced into diluting what were previous concerns about a ‘tight’ labor market. In fact, partly based on what was see
GBP flows: GBP lower after MPC votes 6-3 for no change in policy rate
June 19, 2025 11:16 AM UTC
BoE leaves rates unchanged but deputy governor Ramsden joins the established doves in voting for a rate cut. Nevertheless statement still suggetss rate cuts will be gradual, and GBP has already fallen significantly in the last week