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October 04, 2024
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC
We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks.
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC
The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts. This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends. The Decem
October 03, 2024
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 4th
October 3, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 4th
October 3, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations
China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC
Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98. China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis. Asia widespread banking cris
Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
October 3, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC
Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi