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September 12, 2025
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 12, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
We do expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Recent strength difficult to sustain
September 12, 2025 5:13 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to slip, manufacturing to 51.5 from 53.0 and services to 53.5 from 54.5. We expect slippage more because recent strength looks difficult to sustain rather than because of any clear signals for weakness.
CBR Reduced its Key Rate to 17% as Inflation Softened, but Warned Inflation is Still High
September 12, 2025 3:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced policy rate by 100 bps to 17% on September 12 taking into account that inflation continued to slow down in Q3 but still warned inflation remains high. CBR stated in its written statement it will maintain monetary conditions as tight
U.S. September Preliminary Michigan CSI - Lower as 5-10 year inflation expectations rebound
September 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
September’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.4 is down from 58.2 and weaker than expected, if still above April and May levels. Worries seem to be longer term, with expectations down by more than current conditions and longer term inflation expectations bouncing while the 1-year view is unchanged.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit
September 12, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in
Taiwan: Grey Warfare or Naval Quarantine?
September 12, 2025 11:15 AM UTC
· The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage. With invasion being too high risk for President Xi (with the U.S. main
FOMC Preview for September 17: 25bps Easing on Increased Labor Market Risk
September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i
UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs
September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer