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May 29, 2026
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
May 29, 2026 3:28 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, Jun 1st-5th
May 29, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
Focus on MoU, dollar to slip if deal signed, though long-term outlook less clear cut
Oil crosses such as NOK/SEK also potential to key off sustained pullback
Payrolls and ISM the key data out of the US, to show ongoing resilience
Outside of Iran, a large list of political tail risk events across the
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 29, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2
May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint
U.S. April Advance Goods Trade - Positive for Q2 GDP, but inventories may provide some offset
May 29, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
April’s advance US trade deficit of $82.4bn is narrower than expected and down from $$85.3bn in March. Exports rose by 4.0% while imports rose by 1.9%. Earlier price data had shown gains of 3.3% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
2026 Q1 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
May 29, 2026 11:52 AM UTC
The Country Insights (CI) Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk, measuring a country’s exposure to external and domestic financial shocks and its capacity to grow. Our full range of scores across 174 countries for the first quarter of 2026 is now avail
Taiwan: Low Invasion Risk Post Trump Visit
May 29, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage. This stick and carrot approach is our baseline (Figure 1). Wi