Continuum Economics

October 22, 2024

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Focus on 4.3250/00 in PLN-driven trade

October 22, 2024 10:48 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 4.3200 is giving way to fresh PLN-driven gains

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Extending consolidation

October 22, 2024 10:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 22 October

October 22, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

FX markets were generally quiet through the European morning, with little net change in most pairs.

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

October 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia/Ukraine and Turikye.

Psychology for major markets October 22nd

October 22, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

USD and GBP still firm, JPY weak

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy trade - sentiment is cautious

October 22, 2024 9:48 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.5000 has given way to a pullback to congestion support at 1.4950

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 22nd

October 22, 2024 8:58 AM UTC

Carry trading continues in quiet markets…
…but JPY weakness unlikely to persist without further yield spread moves
CHF looks vulnerable if risk positive tone persists
USD continues to benefit from rising expectation of Trump victory
GBP may still have potential for gains on UK budget

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Range trade

October 22, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a drift lower to congestion support at 0.9350

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - daily studies leaning lower

October 22, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure

October 22, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test above resistance at 0.8333, (GBP/EUR 1.200)

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.0800/10 - background studies under pressure

October 22, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at 1.0800/10 is giving way to expected consolidation

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.2973 - background under pressure

October 22, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 1.2973 weekly low of 17 October is giving way to a bounce back above 1.3000

Chart EUR/SEK Update: Consolidating, but room to extend September gains

October 22, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Settling back from the 11.4500 high as prices consolidate bounce from the 11.3000 low

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends

October 22, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

More post August highs for USD/JPY as US yield rise continues. Short term JPY weakness hard to oppose while US equity sentiment holds firm, but longer term levels are overstretched

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Pressuring 196.00 high

October 22, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

Extending choppy trade above the 193.50 support to retest the 195.95/196.00 congestion area

USD/JPY flows: No comment on fx level

October 22, 2024 4:53 AM UTC

Japan deputy chief cabinet secretary says no comment on FX level

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, October 22nd

October 22, 2024 4:07 AM UTC

AUD/USD flows: Risk steady

October 22, 2024 3:04 AM UTC

Broad risk mood steady

Chart GBP/USD Update: Weighing on the 1.2975 low

October 22, 2024 2:16 AM UTC

Shallow bounce from the 1.2975 low keeps pressure on the downside

Chart EUR/USD Update: Weighing on the 1.0810 low

October 22, 2024 2:00 AM UTC

Consolidating above the 1.0810 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extend consolidation above 162.00

October 22, 2024 1:21 AM UTC

Little change, as the expected break of the 162.00 level failed to materialised

USD/JPY flows: No Jawboning yet

October 22, 2024 12:46 AM UTC

USD/JPY stayed above the 150 figure

October 21, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 22nd

October 21, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 22nd

October 21, 2024 4:05 PM UTC

Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Weaker on strike and weather, but perhaps less so than payrolls

October 21, 2024 3:47 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which while matching our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls is stronger than our 40k forecast for the more directly comparable private sector non-farm payroll. We expect ADP data to prove less sensitive to

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending September gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

October 21, 2024 3:31 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Hurricanes and strike to deliver below trend month

October 21, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further consolidation - daily readings under pressure

October 21, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 162.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower

October 21, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/RUB Update: Prices coming under pressure

October 21, 2024 11:33 AM UTC

Little change, as choppy price action extends pressure on congestion support at 96.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Higher in range - studies improving

October 21, 2024 11:05 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a fresh test higher in PLN-driven trade

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Balanced in range

October 21, 2024 10:27 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited

October 21, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

The bounce from support at the 1.4900 Fibonacci retracement has extended to congestion resistance at 1.5000

Psychology for major markets October 21st

October 21, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD and GBP still firm

Europe Summary and Highlights 21 October

October 21, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

JPY weakness was the main theme in the European morning, with USD/JPY gaining around 60 pips to 149.95.

Country Risk in MENA

October 21, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide reviews of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Algeria this quarter.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending consolidation

October 21, 2024 8:27 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating

October 21, 2024 8:19 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating fall to fresh 2024 year low

October 21, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

The test of congestion support at 0.8300 has bounced from the 0.8295 fresh 2024 year low of 18 October

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending consolidation

October 21, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around 1.0850

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Oct 15th

October 21, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Net GBP longs still extended, Net short CAD position increases to significant levels.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending consolidation above 1.6000 low

October 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Held firm above the 1.6130 support and bounce here see prices extending consolidation above the critical 1.6000 low

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower

October 21, 2024 7:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3000

AUD, GBP, NOK flows: Risk negative start to the week

October 21, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

Risky currencies dip as Asia equities slip ahead of European open. AUD and NOK weakness looks overdone

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extend choppy trade below 196.00

October 21, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

Choppy trade has seen bounce to retest the 195.95/196.00 congestion area

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, October 21st-25th

October 21, 2024 4:00 AM UTC

Fairly quiet week suggests relatively steady FX markets
EUR/USD still biased lower and USD/JPY still stretched…
…but a turn lower in EUR/JPY may require weaker equity sentiment
GBP strength likely to be sustained unless PMIs surprise
CAD risks on the upside on BoC