Continuum Economics

January 21, 2025

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Sharp pullback, but studies rising

January 21, 2025 11:25 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.5000 has been sharply pushed back from beneath the 1.5060 monthly high of 18 December

Europe Summary and Highlights 21 January

January 21, 2025 11:08 AM UTC

The USD was generally stronger through the European morning session, except against the CAD and AUD, which held their own.

Psychology for major markets January 21st

January 21, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Renewed tariff threats keep USD well supported

FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 21st

January 21, 2025 10:07 AM UTC

Market to focus on Trump executive orders, with particular sensitivity to tariffs
AUD may have the most potential to extend Monday’s rally
CAD upside may be brief if CPI softens
GBP looks likely to remain under pressure

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating tests higher - studies improving

January 21, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached resistance at 0.9450

President Trump: Filling in the Blanks

January 21, 2025 9:12 AM UTC

While the new executive orders from president Trump were focused on immigration and energy issues, the threat of 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada by Feb 1 raises the stakes in North America negotiations in the coming weeks. China tariff threats will likely become more concreate in Q1, though

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

January 21, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 0.9050

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating gains - studies continue to rise

January 21, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

The test of resistance at the 0.8464 monthly high of 11 September and 0.8475, (GBP/EUR 1.1800), has given way to consolidation around 0.8455

Chart EUR/USD Update: Back in range - limited downside tests

January 21, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

The test of resistance at the 1.0436 weekly high of 6 January is giving way to the anticipated pullback

Chart GBP/USD Update: Back in range, but studies improving

January 21, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The test of resistance at the 1.2352 weekly low of 2 January has given way to the anticipated pullback

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extend choppy trade within the 1.6700/1.6500 area

January 21, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade around the 1.6600 level

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 190.00

January 21, 2025 7:34 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 190.00 level with bounce from the 189.32 low unwinding the oversold intraday studies

GBP flows: GBP steady after UK labour market data

January 21, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

UK labour market data much as expected. GBP steady but risks still to the GBP downside

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, January 21st

January 21, 2025 4:46 AM UTC

Market to focus on Trump executive orders, with particular sensitivity to tariffs
AUD may have the most potential to extend Monday’s rally
CAD upside may be brief if CPI softens
GBP looks likely to remain under pressure

USD/JPY flows: Stay low before BoJ

January 21, 2025 3:50 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Kato expects BoJ to hit 2% inflation target with appropriate policy

USD/CAD flows: Tariff Man Strikes

January 21, 2025 2:20 AM UTC

Trump suggesting 25% tariff on Canada on Feb 1

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating below 1.2352 resistance, room for higher

January 21, 2025 2:10 AM UTC

Break above the 1.2300 level has seen extension to approach the 1.2352 resistance

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating retest of 1.0436, higher later

January 21, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Break above the 1.0350 resistance has seen extension to retest the 1.0436 high of 6 January

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce

January 21, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Extending bounce from test of the 160.00 level to reach 162.32 high as prices unwind oversold daily studies

January 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, January 21st

January 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Market to focus on Trump executive orders, with particular sensitivity to tariffs
AUD may have the most potential to extend Monday’s rally
CAD upside may be brief if CPI softens
GBP looks likely to remain under pressure

Chart USD/CAD Update: Heightened volatility - studies under pressure

January 20, 2025 4:17 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp fall from the 1.4485 current day high

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, January 21st

January 20, 2025 4:02 PM UTC

Market to focus on Trump executive orders, with particular sensitivity to tariffs
AUD may have the most potential to extend Monday’s rally
CAD upside may be brief if CPI softens
GBP looks likely to remain under pressure

Chart GBP/USD Update: Smart run higher

January 20, 2025 2:45 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD-driven bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Sharp bounce

January 20, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp run higher

USD flows: USD slumps on report tariffs to be delayed

January 20, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

The WSJ reports that Trump won't immediately introduce tariffs, triggering a 1% USD decline

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Corrective gains to remain limited

January 20, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 109.00 is giving way to the anticipated move higher

Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday

January 20, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a

Chart USD/RUB Update: Consolidating - room for lower in the coming sessions

January 20, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower

January 20, 2025 12:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited corrective gains

January 20, 2025 12:03 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 18.7250

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending gains

January 20, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have broken above 1.4900 to reach 1.4925

Europe Summary and Highlights 20 January

January 20, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

GBP weakened through the European morning, with EUR/GBP gaining 20 pips to 0.8460, once again in conjunction with a rise in UK yields.

Psychology for major markets January 20th

January 20, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

USD awaiting Trump executive orders, GBP remains under pressure

FX Weekly Strategy: January 20th-24th

January 20, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Immediate gains to remain limited

January 20, 2025 9:57 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a break higher

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited corrective gains

January 20, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a move higher

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Extending December gains

January 20, 2025 9:41 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh gains

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower

January 20, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test of resistance at 0.9150

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e January 14th

January 20, 2025 8:57 AM UTC

Net short CAD and NZD positions remain high, CHF shorts also extended.

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade

January 20, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion resistance at 1.0300

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher

January 20, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

The test below 1.2200 has bounced from 1.2160

Brazil Risk Premia and EM Debt

January 20, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Brazil debt market has two domestic crises rather than a spillover from the U.S. in the form of inflation and fiscal policy. Very restrictive BCB policy can help produce some disinflation and we forecast 4.1% for 2026, which some allow some rate cuts in H2. Brazil risk premium will likely be reduced

USD flows: Quiet market but focus on Trump

January 20, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

USD marginally softer against the riskier currencies on hopes of moderation on tariffs

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 20th-24th

January 20, 2025 4:27 AM UTC

Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains

AUD/USD flows: Calm before Trump's executive order

January 20, 2025 3:35 AM UTC

Regional equities are outperforming U.S. equities on Monday

USD/JPY flows: Early Spike Faded

January 20, 2025 1:11 AM UTC

The early spike in USD/JPY fades

January 19, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 20th-24th

January 19, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 20th-24th

January 19, 2025 6:00 PM UTC

Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains

January 17, 2025

Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs

January 17, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.

Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. Q4 GDP - Maintaining Momentum

January 17, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, slower than Q3’s 3.1% but still maintaining solid momentum.