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April 09, 2026
UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?
April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers. There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were
April 08, 2026
FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning
April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 8, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated
April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi