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April 01, 2026
U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Composite firm but new orders slower and prices strong
April 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
March’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is slightly improved from February’s 52.4 and maintains a sharp improvement into positive territory in Q1. However rising prices paid and slowing new orders provide some warnings that surging energy prices could have adverse effects.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?
April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War. In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (
March 31, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend
March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment