View:

April 17, 2025

USD flows: Trump said looking for a new Fed Chairman
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

The USD is a touch weaker after the WSJ reported Trump has spoken with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about replacing current Fed Chairman Powell, though it appears Warsh is not interested. If Trump persists in his search, he will have trouble finding someone who will have the market’s trust. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at the 1.3828 current year low of 14 April and the 1.3815 monthly low of 6 November

...
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal

FX Weekly Strategy: April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

...
Banxico Minutes: Comfortable about the Cuts Amid the Volatility
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes confirm a cautious but steady path toward policy normalization, with the policy rate expected to reach neutral levels (7.00–8.00%) in 2025. While the economy shows signs of deceleration and a negative output gap, inflation continues to ease, nearing historical averages.

...
ECB Review: Discussing Policy Restriction No Longer Appropriate
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

A seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut was overshadowed by the ECB’s communication shift about the outlook hereafter, no longer talking about how restrictive policy may be.  This shift is entirely appropriate not least given the manner in which financial conditions are now tightenin

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 162.00 has met selling interest around 162.60

U.S. Initial Claims low but Philly Fed plunges, mixed housing data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending consolidation - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade

EUR, USD flows: EUR not much changed after ECB but USD likely to stay soft
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

ECB cuts as expected, removes reference to restrictive policy. USD still at risk due to high level and rising uncertainty on US economic prospects

...
Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 11:26 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt consolidation around support at 4.2800

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:59 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending cautious trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:39 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and flat overbought daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 April
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD was generally slightly weaker through the European morning.

Psychology for major markets April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:04 AM UTC

Riskier currencies recovering modestly as volatility declines

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

...
Safe Havens Other Than the USD
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The USD and U.S. Treasuries are currently not acting like safe havens, as the crisis is U.S. centric with the tariff debacle. 10yr Treasuries can regain safe haven status if a U.S. recession occurs, but U.S. equities are still clearly overvalued versus equity and equity-bond metrics.  We prefer Ind

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a minor test higher

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced above 2025 year low - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath resistance at 0.8200

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Choppy trade to give way to consolidation
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 0.8600 has met expected selling interest beneath 0.8620, (GBP/EUR 1.1600)

Chart NOK/SEK Update: Limited above the .9300 level
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

Limited on break above the .9280/.9300 resistance as price settled back to consolidate bounce from the .9066, low of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 AM UTC

Little change, as a tick lower in intraday studies keeps near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from strong resistance at 1.3300/30
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 1.3300 range highs

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

Leaning lower in choppy trade after bounce attempt was capped below resistance at the 190.00 congestion

AUD flows: AUD slips after employment data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Australian employment data disappoints, AUD retreats from key resistance area 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:53 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

AUD/USD flows: Labor Market Recovers
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% & Employment Change +32.2K

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating below 1.3300/12 resistance
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

Settling back from approach of the 1.3300/12 resistance as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

USD/JPY flows: Starting on a positive note
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:32 AM UTC

Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan's real interest rate remains very low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extend consolidation below 1.1474 high
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.1474 high of last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 AM UTC

Steadied at the 161.30 low as prices consolidate rejection from test of the 163.00/35 resistance

April 16, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
AUD to be sensitive to March employment data after February dip
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

...
Bank of Canada - Proceeding carefully, but risks still lean towards further easing
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75% as expected. The statement concluded that the BoC will proceed carefully, noting that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war, but it can and must maintain price stability in Canada. While this shows cauti

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy in range
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

The anticipated continuation higher towards resistance at 1.4000 has been pushed back from 1.3975

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 2:58 PM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
AUD to be sensitive to March employment data after February dip
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

CAD flows: CAD slightly firmer after BoC leaves rates unchanged
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

CAD hgiehr after BoC leaves rates unchanged 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a test lower

U.S. March Industrial Production - Strong Q1 ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC

March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Choppy in range - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the test above congestion resistance at 100.00

USD,CAD flows: USD little changed on retail sales, CAD awaits BoC decision
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

US retail sales strong on the month but modest on the quarter and in line with consensus. CAD may rally on BoC if rates left unchanged

...
U.S. March Retail Sales - Autos lead bounce ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Choppy at fresh 2025 year highs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 11:54 AM UTC

Choppy trade has tested above resistance at 4.3000, with prices posting a fresh 2025 year high at 4.3100 

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 11:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 19.0000 has not been sustained

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 10:38 AM UTC

The anticipated test below 1.5700 has bounced from 1.5670

Psychology for major markets April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Riskier currencies recovering modestly as volatility declines

Europe Summary and Highlights 16 April
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

The European morning saw a general recovery in riskier currencies, with USD/JPY gaining half a figure to 142.80 and USD/CHF gaining 30 pips to 0.8175.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP little affected by softer CPI
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Choppy trade - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious