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January 30, 2026
Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral
January 30, 2026 5:09 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.
Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair
January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis
Canada November GDP disappoints but modest rise seen in December
January 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
November Canadian GDP was unchanged, below a 0.1% estimate made when October’s 0.3% decline was released. The preliminary estimate for December is for a 0.1% increase. Rebounds from November weakness in manufacturing and wholesale are seen lifting December data.
U.S. December PPI - Trade rebounds, tariff lift persists
January 30, 2026 1:56 PM UTC
December PPI has surprised on the upside with a 0.5% increase, 0.7% ex food and energy, with even the ex food, energy and trade increase at 0;4% being on the firm side of expectations. Strength was broad based outside food and energy, including at the intermediate level.
ECB Preview: After GDP and Before Feb Meeting
January 30, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
· Most on the ECB council appear to be comfortable with steady policy in H1 2026, after a cumulative 200bps of cuts. This will likely be the overall message from the February 5 ECB meeting. This will paper over differences for 2027 among ECB council members. However, we agree with the
BOE Preview: Clues From February 5
January 30, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· No change is expected at the Feb 5 BOE meeting, with communications leaving the door open to further interest rate cuts at a slower pace than 2025. However, we still forecast three 25bps cuts in 2026 to 3.00%, with the first likely arriving at the key April 30 meeting. The UK labor ma
As We Expected, SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75%
January 30, 2026 6:31 AM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on January 29 due to inflationary risks such as food prices and rise in administered costs, such as electricity prices. The MPC decision was not unanimous. We think the SARB’s (new) 3% inflation t
January 29, 2026
U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.1% rather than 3.6% after wider November trade deficit
January 29, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
Following today’s wider trade deficit for October, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q4 GDP estimate down to 4.24% from 5.4%. We have revised our estimate to 3.1% from 3.6%. We are assuming a December deficit only marginally narrower than November’s, and significantly wider than October’s.
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls
January 29, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall.
Preview: Due February 6 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
January 29, 2026 4:23 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera