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February 28, 2025
February 27, 2025
Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC
Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November.
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go
ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co
February 26, 2025
U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC
While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,
EUR, CAD flows: Trump tariff talk lifts CAD, hits EUR
February 26, 2025 6:19 PM UTC
The CAD has bounced and the EUR has slipped with Trump delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico to April 2 but also stating tariffs on the EU will be 25% on autos and unspecified other things. While Trump’s repeated delays regarding Canada and Mexico are losing him credibility he is still talking pos
U.S. January New Home Sales - Dip on weather, December revised higher
February 26, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
January new home sales at 657k are a little lower than expected though the surprise is offset by an upward revision to December to 734k from 698k, and January data probably saw some restraint for weather. The near-term outlook is probably negative given limited hopes for Fed easing, but fluid, with
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
February 26, 2025 2:03 PM UTC
We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.