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February 11, 2026
February 10, 2026
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024
February 10, 2026 7:16 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Firmer prices matching income and spending
February 10, 2026 4:02 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by Q4 GDP data released at the same time, but is likely to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, the highest since February. We expect personal income to rise by 0.3%, underperforming a 0.4% rise in spending, with bot
Preview: Due February 11 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum
February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati
UK CPI Preview (Feb18): Fresh and Marked Fall to Resume as Core to Hit New Cycle-Low?
February 10, 2026 11:35 AM UTC
UK policy makers may not be able to say they have won the war against inflation, but a clear victory may be seen in the batter likely in the next few months with a likely return to the 2% target by April These projected falls are likely to commence with the looming January numbers (Figure 1) where a
EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
February 09, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. February S and P PMIs - Manufacturing significantly stronger, Services marginally so
February 9, 2026 6:32 PM UTC
We expect improvement in February’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 53.5 from 52.4, with services seeing only a modest increase to 53.0 from 52.7.