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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?
July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC
· Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal. This is a 60% probability scenar
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 8:50 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled or too relaxed, time will tell; arm-wrestle and entrenching expensive abnormality can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot, hawkish comments fuel further
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with U
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 4:56 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony