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April 3, 2026 4:51 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 1.0% in February, which would be the strongest rise since March 2022. The rise will be led by energy, though the core rates ex food and energy at 0.5% and ex food, energy and trade at 0.4% are likely to maintain a recent acceleration.
April 3, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in March industrial production with the increase coming from a 0.3% rise in manufacturing, while gains of 1.0% in utilities and 1.2% in mining will each add around 0.1% to the total.
April 3, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.

April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm patrol is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earnin