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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
U.S. September trade deficit narrows marginally but wider in real terms
November 4, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
September’s trade deficit of $105.0bn from $105.9bn surprisingly narrowed marginally from August despite a wider advance goods deficit released earlier. Still, the data confirms a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in Q3.
U.S. October ADP Employment - Hints at upside payroll risk
November 4, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
October’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 86k is on the firm side of expectations and exactly matches September’s (revised from 90k) so the data is presumably reasonably representative of trend. The number is stronger than our payroll forecast of 45k private, 50k overall.