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ECB Council Meeting Preview (Sep 11): No Change and Little Guidance
September 3, 2025 9:20 AM UTC
A second successive stable policy decision is very likely at next week’s ECB Council meeting resulting in the first consecutive pause in the current easing cycle, with the discount rate left at 2.0%. We see the ECB offering little in terms of policy guidance; after all, in July the Council sugge
U.S. Initial Claims show last week's bounce was erratic, September Philly Fed surprisingly strong
September 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
Weekly initial claims at 231k have returned to trend after last week’s surprisingly high 264k which appears to have been influenced by Labor Day seasonal adjustments. September’s 23.2 Philly Fed manufacturing index is also surprisingly strong, contrasting weaker Empire State data.
SARB Holds Rate Stable at 7.0% to Bring the Inflation Down to New 3% Anchor and Assess Impacts of Earlier Cuts
September 18, 2025 6:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the policy rate at 7.0% during the MPC on September 18 as annual inflation hit 3.3% YoY in August which is above new inflation anchor coupled with surged core inflation. SARB governor Kganyago said on September 18 that MPC expects headline inflatio
BoE Review: Guillotine for Gilts?
September 18, 2025 11:53 AM UTC
That the BoE kept Bank Rate at 4% after this month’s MPC meeting was all but certain, as was the two vote dissent in favor of further easing. But of more note, and amid what have been recent hawkish hints from the MPC majority, was that the MPC adhered to its (conventional) policy guidance, stil
Norges Bank Review: More Caution But Another Cut Flagged for This Year
September 18, 2025 8:58 AM UTC
Despite the stronger than expected data seen of late (real and price-wise), as we expected, the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, an outcome markets had dithered over. But with a small cumulative upgrade to the real economy outlook and an ensuing reduction in the anticipat