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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
Paying Article

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 26th
Paying Article

June 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance 
Tokyo CPI TO Stay Low
USD/JPY Extend consolidation beneath 161.95 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The opening gap below 1.3200 has given way to a bounce

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Yields to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 15-year high at 3.200%

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

U.S. Fed's Waller - A strong core CPI could justify a near term tightening
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 7:07 PM UTC

Fed's Waller seems to want the upcoming core CPI to decide the Fed's next decision. Chairman Warsh testifies to Congress tomorrow,

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Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

USD Flows: blockade and taking a cut; messy situation gets messier
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 2:48 PM UTC

Battle of the grift, as Trump talks blockade and 20% protection fee

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 14
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony

Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC

·       The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jul 7
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 11:04 AM UTC

IMM data echoes recent trends, with market broadly long dollar, if euro neutral
NZD shorts even more extreme (3stdev +) into the RBNZ squeeze
GBP shorts also stayed large even as cross stretched range downside

Europe Summary and Highlights 13 Jul
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 10:07 AM UTC

Europe yawns at w/e escalation, returns to Friday's balance
Quiet calendar until US CPI

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Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields
Freemium Article

July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation).  10yr nominal yields could

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Jul 13-17
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 9:06 AM UTC

Quiet summer markets, if some with idiosyncratic drivers
GPIF story is one to watch on USD/JPY. Market may be being underestimated it, for all its procedural issues
US CPI and Warsh testimony provides the calendar highlights

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Malaysia Country Risk Rating
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Malaysia remains at a medium-low rating.

Psychology for major markets July 13
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

Bombs keep dropping

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Higher in choppy trade
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 8:06 AM UTC

Higher in choppy trade from the .9180/.9200 support to return focus to resistance at the .9250 congestion

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

July 13, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 1.4140 support as prices turned up from 1.4117 low to consolidate losses from the 1.4248 June high

Chart USD/CHF Update: Turned up from .8010 support
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 7:15 AM UTC

Return to pressure the .8100 level following bounce from support the .8010

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating at .8508 support
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

Steadied at the .8508 Friday's low as prices consolidate sharp losses from the .8685 June high

USD Flows - mkt unwilling to commit amid broader escalation, hugs familiar figures
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 6:34 AM UTC

Battle becoming more entrenched over Strait control
Mkt unwilling to commit and be whipsawed again though
Minor USD haven skew but sticks to the familiar figures, risks do seem to be growing

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 6:06 AM UTC

Consolidating below the 18095 high as prices unwind overbought daily studies

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Higher in consolidation
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 5:46 AM UTC

Gapped up at the open see prices back above 101.00 level as prices extend bounce from the 100.64/100.50 support area

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 July
Paying Article

July 13, 2026 5:36 AM UTC

Iran extend strikes to Qatar and the UAE for the first time in months, plus Jordan, Kuwait and Oman

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