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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
Preview: Due August 7 - Canada August Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward
July 27, 2026 3:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.
U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices
July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.
U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices
July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.
Preview: Due July 28 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 27, 2026 12:08 PM UTC
We expect an advance June trade deficit of $100.8bn, down from $105.9bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026.
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i