View:
Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit showing signs of stabilizing
June 11, 2026 7:25 PM UTC
We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $206.8bn, up from $190.7bn in Q4 which would be the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn in Q1 2025. The deterioration from Q4 could however be modest with trade data suggesting that Q4’s deficit will be revised
CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Despite Inflationary Risks
June 11, 2026 3:44 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on June 11 despite inflationary risks as economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. CBRT stated in its written stat
U.S. May PPI - Mostly strong, Initial Claims hinting at slower payroll growth in June
June 11, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
While May’s PPI is mixed, it is on balance a stronger than expected figure with strength overall and ex food, energy and trade outweighing a slightly softer than ex]acted ex food and energy outcome, on a correction lower in trade. Initial claims are hinting June’s payroll will be less strong tha
BoE Preview (Jun 18): Splits to Widen, But Stable Policy Outlook Intact
June 11, 2026 10:26 AM UTC
Not only this month, but we see the BoE being on hold for the rest of the year with rate cuts then resuming through 2027. Although markets are pricing just over two hikes from the current 3.75% with a 50%-plus probability of the first being delivered at the July 30 MPC meeting, our view is hardly
