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Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
U.S. September ISM Services - Fairly stable but with prices picking up
October 5, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
Contrasting a significantly improved S and P services PMI of 58.8, September’s ISM services index of 54.9 is slightly lower than expected and down from 55.4 in August, though still maintaining a fairly stable profile at a level that implies a respectable pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
October 5, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
French Bonds: Global Spillover or Fiscal Crisis?
October 5, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
Overall, the current French government bond widening could partially reverse short-term on U.S. Treasury yields becoming less worried about Fed tightening and also hopes that the 2027 French government budget plan could actually pass. Some ECB officials could also note the existence of the Transmi
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Oct 5-8
October 5, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Oct 5-8
October 5, 2026 9:10 AM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at