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U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC
While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,
CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi
Congress Struggles Over Budget Bill
February 5, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
The House is struggling to reach consensus on the beautiful huge 10yr budget bill, as GOP budget hawks want to see multi trillion expenditure cuts, though eventually the 10yr expenditure cuts will likely compromise around USD 0.5-1.0trn. Tax cuts are also unlikely to match President Trump campaign
China/U.S. Trade War and next To Talks?
February 4, 2025 10:02 AM UTC
China’s targeted and measured counter tariffs against the U.S. are designed to push the U.S. towards the negotiating table on the wider issue of the U.S./China trade deficit. Negotiating will likely start into the spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new ob
Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected, sees balanced risks if a trade war can be avoided
January 29, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased by 25bps to 3.0% as expected, and confirmed the ending of Quantitative Tightening, as had been outlined by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on January 16. The BoC has delivered some fairly optimistic forecasts, but these are made assuming an absence of tariffs, given that the B
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
February 28, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as risk sentiment continues to tread lower on U.S. tariff concern and soft global outlook. The biggest loser is KRW by 0.92%, followed by SGD 0.71%, THB 0.61%, CNH and IDR 0.49%, CNY 0.39%, MYR 0.27%, TWD 0.08%, HKD 0.04% and PHP 0.02%
Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC
Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November.
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go
ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co
