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Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October and November Industrial Production - Net marginally positive
December 22, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
The Fed will release October and November industrial production together, having received key input data from the non-farm payrolls. We expect a 0.1% decline in October to be followed by a 0.2% increase in November, with manufacturing up by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October.
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower
December 22, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, December 22nd - January 2nd
December 22, 2025 10:55 AM UTC
USD should be well supported by Q3 GDP
JPY the focus as it hits new lows in real trade-weighted terms
Japanese FX intervention looks necessary to reverse JPY weakness – probability of intervention now high
AUD and NOK look undervalued
Psychology for major markets Dec 22
December 22, 2025 9:26 AM UTC
EUR/USD – EUR/USD is performing strongly to start the Christmas week, mostly triggered from broad base USD weakness and the technical bounce from 1.17 figure.
USD/JPY – After a blockbuster Friday, USD/JPY has stalled its rally on verbal intervention from the Japanese currency diplomat, Atsushi Mi