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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias (update)
June 16, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, including those for
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 16, 2026 2:33 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
June 16, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would
U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts plunge, elsewhere moves were modest
June 16, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
May housing starts are sharply weaker than expected, down 15.4% to 1.177m, the weakest since May 2020 during the pandemic. However the fall was largely due to a 40.2% plunge in the volatile multiples sector. Single starts fell by a modest 1.9%.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK/SEK flows: FX sleeping but oil is still moving
June 16, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
Pre-Fed intertia and as market digests two-way pull of deal impact
But oil is still active, extending the break lower and threatening bigger range shift
As such, mkt may later re-focus on ToT and oil trade narratives
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 16, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 16th
June 16, 2026 9:37 AM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ delivers the expected hike, later taper, and minor tweaked statement - little impact seen
RBA likewise largely on-message
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed, market tread water prior