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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario. In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts. 10yr
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since