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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
June 29, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 29, 2026 12:10 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.