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July 26, 2024 1:03 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report is largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP detail. In Q2 income surprised on the downside but spending and PCE prices surprised on the upside. For prices and spending the Q2 surprise came more in back month revisions than June data. For income th
July 24, 2024 9:15 AM UTC
2yr Gilt yields will likely start declining further after the 1 BOE rate cut (we expect Aug 1), both as BOE communications guide to further cuts in the medium-term and as incoming wage and service inflation provides more comfort to reduce the scale of restrictive policy. We see 2yr Gilt yields at
July 18, 2024 9:10 AM UTC
If Trump is elected president we still feel that the top priorities for implementation will likely be reducing immigration and making permanent tax cuts that are due to lapse in 2025. Trump would likely jawbone on all issues, but actual policy changes are more important for persistent moves in mar
July 17, 2024 6:52 PM UTC
We decomposed inflation in Brazil and Mexico using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, focusing on Imported Inflation, Demand, Supply, and Monetary Policy. Our analysis from 2003 to 2024 for Brazil and 2005 to 2024 for Mexico shows Brazil's inflation was primarily driven by supply and imported infl
July 5, 2024 5:24 AM UTC
Labour have won a large seat majority, though with a modest vote share. This should provide political stability in the UK for the next 5 years. The key question for market remains how the fiscal rule will be meet and how slowly or quickly Labour will take actions to boost long-term growth.
July 3, 2024 2:17 PM UTC
In a stark contrast to June’s S and P services index which at 55.3 improved on an unexpectedly strong May, June’s ISM services index has not only more than fully reversed an unexpected May improvement, in falling to 48.8 from 53.8, it is now back below neutral for the second time in three months
June 28, 2024 12:57 PM UTC
May core PCE prices are very soft, the 0.1% rise is on consensus but the gain was only 0.083% before rounding while the overall PCE price index was flat. Spending is losing momentum, with May’s rise only 0.2% and downward back revisions, this falling behind a stronger than expected 0.5% rise in pe
July 15, 2024 7:33 AM UTC
We are revising down our 2024 GDP forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, both due to the weaker than expected Q2 GDP figure but also the weak underlying momentum of consumption. Some further targeted policy measures are likely in the coming months, but will struggle to lift economic momentum.
July 26, 2024 6:53 PM UTC
We expect July’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.0 after slipping to 48.2, its lowest since the pandemic in May 2020. However the index will remain a lot weaker than the S and P services PMI, which in July saw a third straight rise to 56.0, to its highest since March 2022.
July 26, 2024 3:40 PM UTC
We expect June’s trade deficit to slip to $73.4bn from $75.1bn, which would be the first narrowing since March. We expect exports to rise by 1.6% after a 0.7% May decline and imports to rise by 0.7% after falling by 0.3% in May.
July 26, 2024 2:51 PM UTC
The Central Bank of Argentina's plan for macroeconomic stabilization includes three stages: an orthodox fiscal exit, establishing an orthodox monetary framework, and prudently lifting FX controls. The fiscal deficit reduction has helped end the monetization of the deficit, while transitioning to a c
July 26, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on July 31 and while a change in rates remains unlikely, the FOMC is likely to signal that easing is possible if data before the next meeting on September 18 provides further evidence of falling inflationary pressure. This will see changes to the wording of the statement,
July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol
July 26, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
More neutral market Friday after Tokyo CPI comes in in line with consensus
July 26, 2024 4:31 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday