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CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
Is CAD poised for a short-squeeze?
August 10, 2026 5:03 PM UTC
There's a decent argument that, event-risk given, CAD may be poised for a short-squeeze
Positioning is extreme and against the grain of recent $ moves
Data has been surprising to the upside supporting a shift in momentum
Lead indicator trends support a recent move back toward recovery and outperforma
FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
August 10, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b
FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
August 10, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate
August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now
August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC
IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque