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EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
This week's five highlights
February 13, 2026 12:00 PM UTC
U.S. January Employment Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
This Week's Fed Speakers
BoC Minutes Show Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected
UK GDP Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
Landslide Victory for Japan LDP
Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January
January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
From Trade War to Trade Truce: Washington and Delhi Recalibrate
February 16, 2026 7:50 AM UTC
The US–India interim trade pact lowers tariffs after a bruising 2025 dispute, offering relief to Indian exporters while committing New Delhi to expanded market access for American goods. Washington is presenting the deal, including India’s stated intent to import up to USD 500bn in US energy and
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw
USD flows: Supreme Court decision on tariffs possible on February 20, but not certain
February 13, 2026 5:34 PM UTC
The Supreme Court has scheduled February 20 as a day for announcements. There is no certainty on which cases will see decisions announced for, but a ruling on the Trump reciprocal tariffs is a clear possibility.
VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January
February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been