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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
July 30, 2026 7:43 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
Preview: Due August 4 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 30, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $73.5bn, down from $77.6bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026, each of which was close to $55bn.
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Losing momentum
July 30, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, slower than Q1’s 0.9% but matching the Q4 outcome. This would see the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
. · Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC
· Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish bias