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Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
U.S. October trade deficit plunge not sustainable, Initial Claims still low, Unit Labor Costs fall but Non-Labor Costs surge
January 8, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
The big shock in the latest data is a dramatic fall in October’s trade deficit to $29.4bn from $48.1bn, to its lowest level since February 2009. This will lift Q4 GDP estimates and give Trump a political boost as the Supreme Court prepares to make a judgement on his tariffs. However the strength,
UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?
January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n
FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 8th
January 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
USD focus on Friday’s employment report and Supreme Court ruling
Risks are tow way, but nerves around the Supreme Court could weigh initially
Jobless claims data unlikely to support a USD negative picture
EUR starting to look vulnerable
Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath
January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow