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AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August
October 13, 2026 5:57 PM UTC
We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained
October 13, 2026 3:59 PM UTC
After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.
U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Correction higher but trend weakening
October 13, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
September existing home sales rose by 1.5% after a 3.2% decline in August, with August’s decline revised from -2.0%. This leaves the data slightly stronger than expected though still on a weakening trend, which is likely to continue given rising mortgage rates.