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Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January
January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm
February 4, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.
Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
Preview: Due February 11 (revised date) - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 4, 2026 5:15 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.
U.S. January ADP Employment - A weaker month which may underperform payrolls
February 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
January’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 22k falls short of expectations. We still see scope for non-farm payrolls to outperform the ADP data given very low initial claims and positive seasonal adjustments, though a recent tendency for ADP data to underperform payrolls is no long
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 4, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates
February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
· Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Less Resilient as Core Hits Cycle-Low
February 4, 2026 11:19 AM UTC
Having been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% until November but after a fall to 1.9% in December headline HICP inflation dropped to 1.7% in the flash January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome. The drop came in spite of higher food inflation
FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 4th
February 4, 2026 10:18 AM UTC
NZ Labor Market Data Unlikely to Sway RBNZ
U.S. January ADP Employment To slow, and underperform payrolls
A partial correction from December's bounce in ISM Services
EZ HICP Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 4th
February 4, 2026 5:08 AM UTC
NZ Labor Market Data Unlikely to Sway RBNZ
U.S. January ADP Employment To slow, and underperform payrolls
A partial correction from December's bounce in ISM Services
EZ HICP Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further