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Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets
April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC
• Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing. This dive
FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September
April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We
FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish
April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC
The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.
Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside
April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stronger month though March may slip
April 29, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
We expect February GDP to increase by 0.3%, slightly stronger than a 0.2% gain predicted with January’s report, though risk is for a weaker preliminary estimate for March. If March declines by 0.1% after a 0.3% February increase, and January’s 0.1% increase is unrevised, this would imply a 1.6%
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI
April 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same time and to which it will contribute. We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger
April 29, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.