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U.S. Initial Claims rebound from holiday drop, September trade deficit falls on surge in gold exports
December 11, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
After a sharply below trend outcome last week of 192k (revised from 191k) in a week that included the Thanksgiving holiday and may have seen seasonal adjustment problems, initial claims have rebounded above trend to 236k. The 2-week average is 214k, slightly below the 218k seen two weeks ago and the
China Outlook: Headwinds Get Stronger
December 11, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· Private domestic demand remains modest, with consumption ranging from modest to moderate (slowed by the housing wealth hit and soft jobs/wage growth) and investment further impacted by the ongoing adverse drag of the residential property bust. China’s authorities prefer a long and
Eurozone Outlook: Running to Keep Fiscally Still?
December 11, 2025 10:09 AM UTC
· Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we retain our below consensus activity forecast for 2026 but see a fiscally driven pick-up into 2027. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but the economy has actual
Swiss SNB Review: Preserving Ammunition
December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC
Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change. Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation. Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy
Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November
December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue