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FX Weekly Strategy: June 2nd-6th
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

Tariff issues still the main focus
EUR may suffer from any new US tariff measures
ECB rate cut and lower inflation forecast may also be EUR negative
CAD to gain modest support from BoC
JPY can gain in risk negative secanrio but should in any case be well supported

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Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?
Freemium Article

May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9.  Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden

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Moody's downgrades US debt as long-standing fiscal concerns mount
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 11:42 PM UTC

Moody’s downgraded US debt to AA1 from AAA after Friday’s close. The decision appears due to continued lack of action on the budget deficit rather that being triggered by any specific event, and brings Moody’s into line with S and P and Fitch. However the timing is awkward for markets, with th

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U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far
Freemium Article

May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i

FX Weekly Strategy: May 5th-9th
Paying Article

May 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

Central bank meetings unlikely to deliver surprises
Equity market recovery may be overdone
JPY has potential for gains
SEK and CHF look expensive

North American Summary and Highlights 30 May
Freemium Article

May 30, 2025 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed overall, though USD/CAD slipped after stronger than expected Canadian GDP data. 

Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Deficit to plunge as imports reverse pre-tariff surge
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 5:59 PM UTC

We expect April’s trade deficit to plunge to $66.4bn, which would be the lowest since December 2023, from a record $140.5bn in March. We expect a healthy 2.1% increase from exports and a plunge of 16.3% in imports, correcting Q1 strength seen ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.

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Bank of Canada Preview for June 4: A close call for another policy pause
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 4 and it is a close call between leaving rates unchanged at 2.75% and a 25bps easing to 2.5%, though we now lean to the former. The statement is unlikely to give any forward guidance and we still expect further easing this year as the economy weakens in response to U

Chart USD/MXN Update: Extending consolidation - any gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 19.2000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

May 30, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

Consolidation around 1.3800 has given way to a break lower in CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due June 2 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement, but not as far as neutral
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

We expect a May ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from April’s 48.7, which was the weakest since November. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022. 

U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Reduced tariffs on China appear to have eased concerns
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

May’s Final Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations coming down significantly, no longer significantly accelerating from April, probably due to reduced tariffs on China. However the boost to sentiment is modest, the final figure of 52.2 up from a preliminary 50.8 and unchanged from April.

Canada Q1 GDP leaves BoC rate call a close one, but we now lean to no change
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP was surprisingly resilient, rising in line with recent trend by 2.1% annualized, though Q4 was revised down to 2.1% from 2.6%. Detail was less positive, with domestic demand falling by 0.1% though this follows a 5.2% surge in Q4. March GDP rose by 0.1% as expected, and the prelimin

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6450 is giving way to a pullback

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U.S. April Trade Deficit falls sharply after tariffs imposed, Personal Income strong, Spending and Core PCE Prices subdued
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

While March personal spending is subdued as expected with a 0.2% rise, personal income shows surprising strength with a rise of 0.8%, while core PCE prices are subdued as expected, up 0.1%, underperforming a 0.2% core CPI. A much smaller than expected advance April trade deficit of $87.6bn is suppor

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath resistance at 164.00 is giving way to a pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

The anticipated test of 144.00 is giving way to consolidation around 143.75

USD, CAD flows: USD softer, CAD firmer after data
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD softer in early US trade but little affected by US data. CAD firmer on stronger GDP

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German Data Review: Lower Headline Services Surge Reverses
Freemium Article

May 30, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low.  Most notable amid a drop caused

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Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit

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Sweden: Riksbank Needs to Revise Output Gap Estimate and Reassess Policy Outlook?
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 11:49 AM UTC

We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18.  Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible.  This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 11:37 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 17.7800 low of 26 May is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 10:51 AM UTC

The test of resistance at 1.5700 has met expected selling interest

Europe Summary and Highlights 30 May
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

The USD edged slightly higher against the EUR and AUD in the European morning, but was otherwise little changed.

Psychology for major markets May 30
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 10:07 AM UTC

EUR marignally softer in quiet trade awaiting further tariff news