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U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
September 10, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency
September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?
ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency
September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?
U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Trend subdued with hints of weakness
September 10, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
August existing home sales have seen a 2.0% decline to 3.98m, the weakest level since June 2025 and a third straight decline. Most housing sector indicators are subdued. Upward pressure on mortgage rates, and a potential Fed tightening next week, could add to the pressure.
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
September 10, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
U.S. August PPI - Near consensus, but still firmer than the Fed would like
September 10, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
August PPI is in line with expectations, up 0.4% overall, and a moderate 0.2% ex food and energy. A 0.3% rise ex food, energy and trade suggests underlying trends are still a little firmer than the Fed would like. Initial claims at 206k versus 207k and continued claims at 1.774m versus 1.775m are vi
U.S. August PPI - Near consensus, but still firmer than the Fed would like
September 10, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
August PPI is in line with expectations, up 0.4% overall, and a moderate 0.2% ex food and energy. A 0.3% rise ex food, energy and trade suggests underlying trends are still a little firmer than the Fed would like. Initial claims at 206k versus 207k and continued claims at 1.774m versus 1.775m are vi
