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BoJ Review: Zero
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 6:14 AM UTC

BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC. However, forward guidance suggest the BoJ is in no hurry to further tighten

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China: Unbalanced Growth
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The February monthly data shows unbalanced growth.  Industrial production and public investment picked up, but retail sales slowed and residential property remains a negative drag on GDP.  While H1 GDP growth will be ok, it will likely slow in H2 and we still stick to a forecast of 4.4% for 2024 a

FX Weekly Strategy: April 15th-19th
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

GBP in focus on labour market and CPI data
Scope for a more dovish tone to emerge if earnings data soften further
EUR/USD downside looks more restricted from here
JPY likely to have bottomed out on the crosses

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. CPI Stronger than Estimated
Tone of March FOMC Minutes is Not Hawkish but Recent Speakers' Rhetoric Suggest Otherwise
And see USD/JPY Rose To Another High
RBNZ Kept Rates on Hold
UK GDP Shows Less Fragile Recovery

Chart USD/JPY Update: Trading at levels from 1990 - resistance at the 152.75 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

April 10, 2024 1:58 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a USD- and JPY-driven break higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

April 9, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion resistance at 1.2650

FX Weekly Strategy: April 8th-12th
Paying Article

April 5, 2024 3:11 PM UTC

US CPI and ECB meeting may conform to expectations
Ranges may therefore remain intact in EUR/USD and USD/JPY
CHF may see renewed weakness if there is no significant risk negative event on the weekend

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Banxico Minutes: Hawkish Cut and Different Views
Paying Article

April 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC

Banxico's recent meeting minutes reveal a split among board members regarding monetary policy, with a 25bps rate cut to 11.0%. Despite progress in curbing inflation, differing views on policy direction persist. Inflation expectations deviate from targets, with potential risks in fiscal policy and wa

Canada March Employment - A weak month after two solid ones
Paying Article

April 5, 2024 1:35 PM UTC

Canada’s 2.2k decline in March employment is weaker than expected though needs to be seen alongside strong gains of 40.7k in February and 37.7k in January. The 3-month average of 25k is above the 6-month average of 22k. However with the labor force rising unemployment is trending higher, March’s

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Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
Paying Article

April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

April 1, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

Turned up from the 98.17 low to consolidate above the 98.60 support 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Remains in consolidation above the .6500 level
Paying Article

April 1, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation above the .6500 level 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
Freemium Article

March 28, 2024 4:45 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh test of resistance at 1.3600 and the 1.3620 Fibonacci retracement

FX Weekly Strategy: April 1st-5th
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 3:51 PM UTC

EUR/USD unlikely to break out of the range
USD/JPY upside looks very limited
CHF the preferred funding currency

Chart USD/RUB Update: Cautious trade - daily studies leaning lower
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 12:46 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a minor test lower
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

The pullback from the 104.50 weekly high of 22 March has reached congestion support at 104.00

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 26th
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 10:01 AM UTC

Once again little to drive FX markets on Tuesday
Increasing risk of BoJ intervention and sharp USD/JPY correction
EUR/USD range remains intact
Swedish data to inform market expectations of Riksbank

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 Mar
Freemium Article

March 26, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

Japan fin min Suzuki says won't rule out steps to address disorderly FX moves

FX Weekly Strategy: March 25th-29th
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

Market to focus on the aftermath of last week’s central bank meetings
USD/JPY may break to new high after BoJ minutes but break unlikely to be sustained
EUR/USD unlikely to start far from recent ranges
GBP may extend losses as market considers possibility of earlier rate cut
NOK/SEK may gain if Riksba

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arriving and Positive Yield Curves
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
Freemium Article

March 20, 2024 4:45 PM UTC

Little change, as prices remain under pressure

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Potential for further gains
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 2:57 PM UTC

We expect a February new home sales total of 690k, which would be a 4.4% increase if January’s 1.5% increase to 661k is unrevised. This would be a third straight increase if still below 2023’s high of 728k seen in July.

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Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC Dots and economic forecasts marginally more hawkish
BoJ Bring Interest Rate To Zero
SNB Surprise with 25bps Rate Cut
BoE's Easing Bias Continues
RBA Holds as Expected 

North American Summary and Highlights 12 Apr
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally strong as equities fell on fears of escalating conflict in the in Middle East.  

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Reason to think rates will stay higher for longer
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:40 PM UTC

Hawkish remarks from Schmid are probably the most notable of today's Fed talk, with Collins, Goolsbee and Bostic all maintaining the tone of recent comments.

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U.S. PCE Prices, Residual Seasonality and the Fed Outlook
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:22 PM UTC

Strength in Q1 inflation data contrasts the encouraging subdued data seen in the second half of 2023, and it looks likely there is some residual seasonality in the data even after seasonal adjustments. The underlying picture is still probably in a gradual downtrend, which should become clear later t

Chart USD/MXN Update: Smart bounce from 9-year lows
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 9-year lows at 16.2600

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to fresh gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

U.S. April Michigan CSI - Lower but inflation expectations rise
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

April’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 77.9 is down from March’s 79.4 but still above February’s 76.5 and generally healthy. Inflation expectations moved higher, the 1-year view to 3.1% from 2.9% and the 5-10 year view to 3.0% from 2.8%, its highest since November.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room for still higher
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:20 PM UTC

No change to the bullish tone, with late-December gains extending to post fresh 2024 year highs

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Preview: Due April 15 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Up again on the month but weaker in Q1
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in March retail sales, which after a 0.6% February increase would not fully erase January’s 1.1% decline that was blamed on bad weather. Ex autos however we expect a rise of 0.5%, which after a 0.3% February increase would complete a reversal of a 0.8% decline in January.

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot

Chart USD/RUB Update: Edging higher - studies improving
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:53 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a test higher to the 93.5575 monthly high of 22 March

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Balanced at 4-year lows - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:33 AM UTC

The anticipated break below the 4.2750 multi-year Fibonacci retracement has reached reached congestion support at 4.2500

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a run towards strong resistance at 19.0000 - 19.1050
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

 Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation around congestion support at 18.7500

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:54 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

European Summary and Highlights 12 Apr
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:35 AM UTC

The EUR fell back across the board through the European morning, with EUR/USD losing half a figure to trade at new lows for the year below 1.0660.

Psychology for major markets Apr 12
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:22 AM UTC

USD sentiment strong with new highs for the year seen against the EUR, JPY and GBP

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 12th
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP downside risk on UK GDP
SEK favoured as CPI set to pop higher
USD to maintain recent strength

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a EUR-driven pullback

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a EUR-driven pullback

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced at 2024 highs - daily studies tracking higher
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:13 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 0.8547/50 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:03 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/JPY Update: Balanced at 34 year highs - studies rising
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:49 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending late-December losses
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh losses

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for deeper losses
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on strong support at 1.2500/18

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UK GDP Review: Less Fragile Recovery to Fuel BoE Hawks?
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:50 AM UTC

The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is hardly much better with GDP growth only modestly positive.  Admittedly, coming in as largely expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February accentuating the upgraded 0.

GBP, SEK flows: GBP firmer, SEK weaker after data
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

GBP gaining on better than expected GDP data, while soft Swedish CPI is pushing SEK lower. But neither move is likely to extend far.