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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
Paying Article

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 26th
Paying Article

June 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance 
Tokyo CPI TO Stay Low
USD/JPY Extend consolidation beneath 161.95 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The opening gap below 1.3200 has given way to a bounce

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Yields to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 15-year high at 3.200%

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

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ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

July 3, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Choppy trade around 1.4200 has given way to a pullback to the 1.4140 monthly high of 5 November

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 3:39 PM UTC

Consolidation above 0.6900 has given way to a test above the 0.6925 high of 25 June

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 6-10
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

FOMC, ECB Minutes, RBNZ decision the highlights
Dollar ardour cools but spreads still in favour
NZD attempting to bounce if RBNZ plays ball
USD/JPY has done some n/t chart damage

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 185.00 has tested below congestion support at 184.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Turning away from multi-year highs
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

Consolidation around 162.50 has given way to a sharp pullback in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

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EM Government Debt Sinners and Saints
Freemium Article

July 3, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

·       Overall, the clearest EM fiscal sinner is Brazil, given its tax revenue/GDP ratio is already very high and requires politically sensitive expenditure cuts after the October election to increase the primary surplus to stabilize the government debt/GDP trajectory and get real bond yield

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 3, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

U.S. June NFP Misses
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
This Week's Fed Speaker
EZ HICP Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
USD/JPY Corrects

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 12:19 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 4.3065, where renewed selling interest has pushed prices sharply lower into consolidation above 4.2850

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 11:58 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 16.4000 has given way to anticipated selling pressure

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Pushing higher
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 11:29 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 1.6200 is giving way to a push higher

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating losses - room for lower
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 10:50 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break down to congestion support at 0.9180

Europe Summary and Highlights 3 Jul
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 9:41 AM UTC

Relatively quiet into US holiday, bar a mini USD/JPY dip
EZ PMI revised up

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure in both USD- and CHF-driven trade
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 8:44 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to anticipated losses in both USD- and CHF-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 8:26 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to steady selling interest

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Sharp losses giving way to consolidation above strong support
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 8:16 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached strong support at 0.8545/47

Chart EUR/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 7:56 AM UTC

Consolidation around congestion support at 1.1400 has given way to the anticipated bounce to congestion around 1.1450

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains
Freemium Article

July 3, 2026 7:36 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have extended

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

July 3, 2026 7:29 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 1.2255 June high

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