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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
FOMC Minutes - Fork in the road: scenario-dependent policy
July 8, 2026 10:19 PM UTC
The June Minutes show a Committee that had skewed slightly more hawkish, in pockets, but had mainly moved toward greater uncertainty and dispersion.
The spine of the policy debate now revolves around a fork in the road: two plausible inflation trajectories, with policy calibration in either directi
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
July 8, 2026 5:55 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 9
July 8, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
FOMC Minutes to be digested, though again Trumped by Iran
Oil and wider mkt left gauging the dangerous line between rhetoric and breakdown
CAD and NOK were oversold so most responsive, EUR/USD proving a little trapped s/t
USD/JPY still in heads I win tails you lose mentality
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
July 8, 2026 11:00 AM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
