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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
UK CPI Review: Inflation Peaking?
June 17, 2026 7:40 AM UTC
What have been energy induced price rises are starting to ease and may do so further In June before the OFGEM induced price rise hits July numbers. But a less worrying picture emerges in the latest (ie May) CPI and even PPI data. Indeed, once again, actual CPI have offered a more benign picture
BOJ: QT still 5-6% of GDP until 2030 at least!
June 17, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Though the BOJ will maintain bond buying at Yen2trn pm from April 2027, huge redemptions means that net QT will be Yen45trn April 27-March 28 i.e. around 6.5% of GDP after QT at 6% of GDP in 2026. Then JGB net reduction of Yen40trn (6% of GDP) FY 29 and Yen35trn (5.5% of GDP). Wit