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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22

October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, 19-23 October

October 16, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

US bonds and USD became overstretched, looking to rebalance n/t
Quiet week though event risks coming onto the horizon
Big picture cross-asset themes across bonds-equities-dollar relationships remain a background focus

AI and The U.S. Economy

October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ISM Services - Edging higher

November 3, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM services index of 55.0, little changed from September’s 54.9, but sustaining a marginal positive bias to recent trend.

U.S. September JOLTS report clearly positive

November 3, 2026 3:12 PM UTC

September’s JOLTS report on labor turnover makes positive reading. Openings rise by 333k, more than fully reversing a 145k decline in August. The 3 and 6 month averages are both positive and close to 100k.

UK BoE Preview: One and Done?

November 3, 2026 3:02 PM UTC

The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra

UK BoE Preview: One and Done?

November 3, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure

November 3, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

Choppy trade around 0.7000 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending pressure on 177.00 - daily studies rising

November 3, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

Consolidation at congestion resistance around 177.00 has given way to a pullback to 176.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies improving

November 3, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance around 158.00

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher

November 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Chart EUR/SEK Update: Reached strong support

November 3, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached strong support at the 10.9200 monthly low of 7 August and the 10.9350 Fibonacci retracement

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend

November 3, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending late-September losses

November 3, 2026 12:11 PM UTC

Consolidation around 0.9200 has given way to anticipated selling interest

Europe Summary and Highlights 3 Nov

November 3, 2026 11:01 AM UTC

AUD eases out of RBA's 'dovish-hike'
Some bounce in NOK from steep pullback, on session correction and some oil news noise

Taiwan Country Risk Rating

November 3, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Taiwan remains at a medium-low rating.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Nov 3

November 3, 2026 9:54 AM UTC

Oil back in focus and with it NOK's exposure to positive scenarios that are less hedged; news remains chequered
RBA delivers hike and may be done now, market pricing in a flat outlook
US still waiting for midterms then payrolls

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending losses

November 3, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below the 0.8175 Fibonacci retracement to reach congestion support at 0.8150

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Cautious trade

November 3, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.8333 - 0.8365 range

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade - daily studies under pressure

November 3, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at the 101.50 break level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced around 1.1200 - daily studies rising

November 3, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.1200 has reached 1.1235~, where unwinding overbought intraday studies have prompted a pullback into fresh consolidation around 1.1200

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pushing higher

November 3, 2026 8:34 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 1.3448, before settling back into consolidation above congestion support at 1.3400

AUD/USD, AUD/NZD flows - one for the road

November 3, 2026 7:54 AM UTC

RBA hike, but vote, statement and comments suggest sees this as likely enough
Market now close to echoing a flat outlook, just a small premium in place
AUD/NZD pulls back from recent post RBNZ, CPI spike 1.24~ key support ahead of larger retracement

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Nov 3

November 3, 2026 7:42 AM UTC

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extend pullback from 1.2600 current year high

November 3, 2026 7:09 AM UTC

Under pressure, as consolidation around the 1.2500 level gives way to deeper pullback from the 1.2600, 28 October fresh year high