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CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. June JOLTS report shows job openings correcting lower but Q2 remains positive
August 4, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
June’s JOLTS report has shown a 178k decline in job openings with May revised to a 48k decline from a 9k increase. With April having seen a strong 698k increase the 3-month average is still firm at 157k, while the 6-month average is similar at 135k. Q1 also saw a strong rise at the start of the mo
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
August 4, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr