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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring July high
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.3475 low has seen gains to retest the 1.3550/58, July high

North American Summary and Highlights 17 August
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer in Europe but corrected higher in North America assisted by gains in oil. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

CHF/JPY and the carry question
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

·       CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning

...
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
Paying Article

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Focus on the 186.00/186.30 resistance
Paying Article

August 26, 2026 1:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation just below the 186.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating, limited above the 159.00 level
Paying Article

August 26, 2026 1:01 AM UTC

Edged higher from the 158.00 low to regain the 159.00 level before settling back in consolidation beneath 159.78 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Poised just below .5988 Friday's high
Paying Article

August 26, 2026 12:42 AM UTC

Firm in range to keep pressure on the upside and scope for retest of the .5988 high of last Friday

Chart AUD/USD Update: Firm in range
Paying Article

August 26, 2026 12:23 AM UTC

Remains below the .7180 Friday's high as prices consolidate around .7150 congestion

Clone - Asia Open
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 11:25 PM UTC

Deal?

North American Summary and Highlights 25 August
Freemium Article

August 25, 2026 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly softer as oil prices moved lower, as did UST yields.  

FOMC Discount Rate minutes show four districts backed a July hike
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 6:44 PM UTC

Minutes from the Fed’s discount rate meetings shortly before the July FOMC meeting show a not very hawkish 4 votes (out of 12) to increase the Discount Rate, from the Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City and Minneapolis Feds.

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. August ISM Services - Slightly firmer within a tight range
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 6:21 PM UTC

We expect an August ISM services index of 54.5, up from 54.1 in July but keeping the index in a tight range, which held between 53.6 and 54.5 between March and July. 

Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 4:04 PM UTC

We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?

Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC

* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

August 25, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

The break above 1.3800 has extended to reach 1.3865~

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 26
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. Preliminary Q2 GDP Still Subdued
PCE prices to match CPI
July Durable Goods Orders Still firm
Slate of U.S. Data could see Limited tests higher for DXY

U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward rev

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 1:14 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation around congestion support at 0.7150

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating gains - background studies rising
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade just beneath congestion resistance at 186.00

Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for a minor test higher
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 159.50 congestion tops is giving way to fresh consolidation

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q2 GDP - Small upward revision, still subdued
Paying Article

August 25, 2026 12:01 PM UTC

We expect a preliminary Q2 estimate of 1.6%, a marginal upward revision from the advance estimate of 1.5%, with the revision to be led by business investment.

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