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U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
Paying Article

September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater.  Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC

US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s

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Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
Freemium Article

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring July high
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.3475 low has seen gains to retest the 1.3550/58, July high

North American Summary and Highlights 17 August
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer in Europe but corrected higher in North America assisted by gains in oil. 

North American Summary and Highlights 10 September
Freemium Article

September 10, 2026 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - The ECB and US PPI saw no major surprises, but the USD made some gains as did oil. 

Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

September 10, 2026 4:50 PM UTC

Cautious trade above 1.3800 is giving way to a test higher

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

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ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 11
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 2:52 PM UTC

EUR/USD dips back to anchor out of ECB meeting, though money market rate bets firm up
Focus turns to US CPI, where we see upside risks to core
Could see another intraday reaction for the dollar to keep recent chop going

U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Trend subdued with hints of weakness
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

August existing home sales have seen a 2.0% decline to 3.98m, the weakest level since June 2025 and a third straight decline. Most housing sector indicators are subdued. Upward pressure on mortgage rates, and a potential Fed tightening next week, could add to the pressure.

Chartbook: UK Chart FTSE 100 Update: Turning away from fresh all-time highs
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 1:58 PM UTC

The anticipated test higher has posted a fresh all-time high just shy of 11,000, before settling into multi-week consolidation beneath here.

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

Chart AUD/USD Update: Sharp pullback in USD-driven trade
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD-driven pullback

U.S. August PPI - Near consensus, but still firmer than the Fed would like
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

August PPI is in line with expectations, up 0.4% overall, and a moderate 0.2% ex food and energy. A 0.3% rise ex food, energy and trade suggests underlying trends are still a little firmer than the Fed would like. Initial claims at 206k versus 207k and continued claims at 1.774m versus 1.775m are vi

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U.S. August PPI - Near consensus, but still firmer than the Fed would like
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

August PPI is in line with expectations, up 0.4% overall, and a moderate 0.2% ex food and energy. A 0.3% rise ex food, energy and trade suggests underlying trends are still a little firmer than the Fed would like. Initial claims at 206k versus 207k and continued claims at 1.774m versus 1.775m are vi

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited JPY-driven gains - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 12:46 PM UTC

Consolidation above strong support at the 177.85 current year low of 9 September and congestion around 178.00 is giving way to a JPY-driven bounce

EUR/USD flows: Minor dip out of announcement, but projections nudged up
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 12:30 PM UTC

Minor intraday sell fact on announcement but even with boilerplate language inflation projection nudged up
Inflation risks to upside, growth risks to the downside

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in USD- and JPY-driven trade, but scope to remain limited
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 12:22 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a push higher in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Chart NOK/SEK Update: Fresh year highs - background studies rising
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Gains from the 0.9066~ multi-year low of April 2025 have tested above resistance at the 1.0350 Fibonacci retracement and historic congestion around 1.0400

Europe Summary and Highlights 10 Sep
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 10:15 AM UTC

Largely sideways ahead of ECB and US inflation data
Energy complex still under upward pressure, especially distillates 

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Balanced at year highs - background studies improving
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 10:15 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath critical resistance at the 0.9435 current year high of 2 September

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

September 10, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

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