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China Harder Landing Scenario
September 2, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
We see a 30% probability of a harder landing in China GDP growth in 2025, which we most likely be in the 3-4% region but could persist into 2026 (Figure 1). A large than projected slowdown in consumption would be a key concern, alongside persistently moderate negative deductions from residential
EM Markets Divergence with China Harder Landing Concerns
August 14, 2024 3:35 PM UTC
Global market turbulence has had a spillover impact into EM, but also some EM assets have benefitted from rotation away from the U.S. What are the prospects in the coming months?
We see scope for a 2nd wave of U.S. equity and Japanese Yen (JPY) correction, which are a mixed influence for EM assets
Mexico CPI Review: 0% Inflation in August as Expected
September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Subdued, if marginally stronger than in the preceding three months
September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC
We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the
U.S. August NFIB survey - Loses momentum after stronger July
September 10, 2024 12:25 PM UTC
After picking up in the four months to July, which saw the highest level since February 2022, August’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has taken a hit, slipping to 91.2 from July’s 93.7, moving marginally below June’s 91.5 too.
India CPI Review: Easing Prices, but Monsoon Risks Loom
September 10, 2024 9:14 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s August inflation level is expected to trend down to 3.5% yr/yr, from 3.53% y/y in July, reflecting higher base effects. Interest rate cut is unlikely though as the RBI perceives this as a temporary reprieve.
Norges Bank Preview (Sep 19): Less Hawkish Rhetoric?
September 10, 2024 7:37 AM UTC
As has been the case for the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank is almost certain to keep its policy rate at 4.5% when the Board offers its next verdict on Sep 19. But amid a slightly disappointing mainland real economy backdrop and what have been softer than (Norges Bank) expectations