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AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
October 19, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 20
October 19, 2026 3:30 PM UTC
France remains in focus, even if positioning and expiries help to cushion
USD long positioning was back to the extremes pre-CPI-reaction; euro crosses still struggle
A political winter of discontent asks FX questions of who comes out on top - CHF? JPY?
Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
October 19, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/USD flows - who comes out on top in a winter of discontent?
October 19, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
Euro propped by positioning, expiries, though crosses still slip
Near-term stretched action aside, big picture focus could increasingly revolve around politics of discontent
CHF carry continues to be challenged, and retraced, by its socio-economic safety
Canada September CPI - Softer core rates will comfort the BoC
October 19, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
September Canadian CPI edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% overall but this is softer than the 3.2% expected by the market. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates all moved lower. This suggests that despite concerns over oil, the BoC need feel no urgency to tighten at this month’s meeting.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 19-23 October
October 19, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
US bonds and USD became overstretched, looking to rebalance n/t
Euro remains weighed crosses out of French disorder
Quiet week though event risks coming onto the horizon
Big picture cross-asset themes across bonds-equities-dollar relationships remain a background focus
UK CPI Preview: Further Increase Will Push the BoE to Hike in November
October 19, 2026 8:47 AM UTC
This week’s CPI headline is expected to continue to reflect the impact of the oil price shock with markets seeing an increase to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.1% before. To date, energy has been the main culprit behind the rise in headline inflation with goods also showing a modest increase (see Fi
UK CPI Preview: Further Increase Will Push the BoE to Hike in November
October 19, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
This week’s CPI headline is expected to continue to reflect the impact of the oil price shock with markets seeing an increase to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.1% before. To date, energy has been the main culprit behind the rise in headline inflation with goods also showing a modest increase (see Fi