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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC

A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still

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U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
Paying Article

September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater.  Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC

US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s

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Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
Freemium Article

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring July high
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.3475 low has seen gains to retest the 1.3550/58, July high

North American Summary and Highlights 17 August
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer in Europe but corrected higher in North America assisted by gains in oil. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range-bound, but still heavy
Paying Article

September 16, 2026 12:20 AM UTC

Little change, as prices stays range-bound above the .7108 low

North American Summary and Highlights 15 September
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 7:25 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained firmer supported by oil and UST yields as equities were pressured, though moves were modest ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. 

Preview: Due September 29 - Canada July GDP - Subdued start to Q3
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

We expect July GDP to be unchanged, a pause after three straight gains in Q2. This would be in line with the preliminary estimate for July made with June’s report. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Range trade - daily studies rising
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the tight 1.3900 - 1.3925 range

Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects.  Breakeven inflation expectatio

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:43 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.7100 - 0.7150 range

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

The retest of strong support at the 177.85 weekly low of 9 September and congestion around 178.00 has given way to a fresh bounce in JPY-driven trade

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

The pullback to congestion support at 154.00 has given way to a steady bounce

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China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Some loss of momentum, prices firm
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at 7.6 is still positive but down from a very strong 20.6 in August that was the strongest since December 2021. The data follows modest slowing in August’s ISM and S and P manufacturing PMIs, though both also remained clearly positive.

Chartbook: Chart EUR/CHF: Fresh year highs - background studies improving
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:19 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath 0.9250 has given way to anticipated gains

Chart EUR/SEK Update: Fresh year highs - studies continue to rise
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 10:57 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 11.1500 has given way to anticipated gains

Europe Summary and Highlights 15 Sep
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 10:07 AM UTC

Some position lightening on USD/JPY extends to next resistance
UK labour market soft, though no additional GBP impact felt
Same global backdrop, with oil, yields and equities feeling pressure

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 10:01 AM UTC

The pullback from the 0.9475 current year high of 14 September is giving way to consolidation above 0.9425

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Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 15
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

Spec data shows mkt turned long kiwi - often a contrary indicator
Risk sentiment turns weaker, squeezing dollar, as oil catches up with sentiment; AI complications
Soft UK labour market data, followed by CPI, provide the run in to the next BoE meeting

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced beneath year highs
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and flattening overbought daily stochastics prompt cautious trade within the 0.8150 - 0.8200/07 range

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