View:
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now
August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC
IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Aug 10-14
August 10, 2026 8:59 AM UTC
Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base
Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow
August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/NOK Flows: core NOK CPI a little under, still waiting on Iran
August 10, 2026 6:58 AM UTC
Yen in Fri's bar, still basing and in n/t consolidation/correction mode
Iran says Oman deal close, rhetoric on US demands remains high
NOK inflation higher on headline but a little under on core, Norge hike odds relatively limited for Aug