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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jun 23
June 29, 2026 8:19 AM UTC
Latest IMM data underscores mkt strongly long-dollar, playing to current overbought pullback/consolidation
CAD (pre USMCA) and NZD shorts large; AUD remains more sidelined if forced out of longs
GBP shorts at historic highs - last out here in 2017
This occurring at the EUR/GBP range lows - so creates
China Yuan to 6.65 Then 6.50?
June 29, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
· We feel that the authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention, but then allow appreciation to restart. We now see further Yuan appreciation to 6.65 by end 2026, though the authorities will be reluctant to see much more. For end 2027 we forecast USDCNY at 6.50
EUR/USD flows: Still leaning to unwind o/s conditions, better sellers seen above
June 29, 2026 6:45 AM UTC
Fractious w/e gives way to latest stand down and talks to resume
Mkt still leaning towards unwinding overbought dollar but limit seen to correction
Inflation data, period end, Lagarde later; payrolls on the radar