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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
Freemium Article

May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC

 A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

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ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

North American Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was supported by comments from Fed’s Waller and higher Michigan CSI inflation expectations but ended little changed. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 8:25 PM UTC

FOMC lives up to the hype, dollar breaks higher
Otherwise focus turns to the UK, with data, BoE and by-election. 
SNB seen unchanged and CHF comments to be ignored unless escalated

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FOMC - Policy may prove less hawkish than the dots, assuming slowing in data
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 8:08 PM UTC

The Fed dots show a clearly divided Fed with only a minority on the median rates view for 2026, for a 25bps hike, 2027, which sees a 25bps reversal, and 2027, which sees a further 25bps easing. There are several respondents on either side of the median but we believe the voters lean towards the dovi

North American Summary and Highlights 17 June
Freemium Article

June 17, 2026 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - US2yr up 15bp back to the recent yield highs as split FOMC projects lean towards a rate hike, Warsh strikes mixed tone if uncompromising on inflation mandate. Dollar break highs, up 1%+ across most pairs

USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC

Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness 
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely

USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu

Chartbook: Chart USD Index DXY: Choppy in range - room to extend January gains
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 4:22 PM UTC

Anticipated tests higher posted a fresh year high at 100.64

Chart USD/CAD Update: Fresh year highs in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

June 17, 2026 3:53 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh gains in CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - No significant revision
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

We expect a final estimate of Q1 GDP at 1.6%, unrevised from the preliminary, though in USD terms we do expect a marginal upward revision.

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Jun 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

FOMC projections and press conference to set the broad tone
Otherwise focus turns to the UK, with data, BoE and by-election. Sterling mood has improved
SNB seen unchanged and CHF comments to be ignored unless escalated

U.S. May Pending Home Sales - Fourth straight gain from January's record low
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 2:19 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a 3.8% increase in May, well above expectations and a fourth straight rise, though still not fully reversing the declines of December and January that took the series to a record low.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range trade
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.7050 - 0.7100 range

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy at local highs
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 186.00 has been pushed back from 186.30

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U.S. May Retail Sales - Impressive resilience
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

May retail sales continue to show impressive resilience to downward pressure on real disposable income from rising gasoline prices, with equity strength and lower taxes offsetting to the headwinds, as well as recent resilience in employment, Overall sales rose by 0.9%, with gains of 0.8% ex auto and

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range extension
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Still little change, as flat daily stochastics help to keep sentiment cautious and extend consolidation above congestion support at 160.00

USD flows: Retail sales upside into Fed, mkt holds tight
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Another upside from US data, retail sales beats
While with the grain of US resilience and outperformance, mkt holds tight into FOMC

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Range trade - studies falling
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 11:51 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation within the 16.1400 - 16.2500 range

Chartbook: US Chart 10 Year Yield: Retracement in the coming weeks - background studies improving
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 2026 year high at 4.687%

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Price action remains positive
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 11:04 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on strong resistance at the 1.6250~ monthly high of 14 April

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 Jun
Paying Article

June 17, 2026 10:12 AM UTC

UK CPI lower than expected, EUR/GBP drifting off YTD range base
Riksbank notes increased hike risks late year, but core view support unchanged
Contained trade as market waits for the key FOMC meeting

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