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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
September 17, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on