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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
September 3, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
U.S. August ISM Services - Mostly positive though employment subdued
September 3, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
August’s ISM services index of 55.4 is the strongest since February and up from 54.1 in July. The strength is consistent with a healthy S and P services PMI, even if the latter was revised down to 56.5 from 56.8.
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
September 3, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
July’s trade deficit of $88.6bn is up from $71.2bn in June and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit if $133.0bn in March 2025, though not quite as wide as expectations generated by advance goods data. Initial claims at 206k from 204k and continued claims at 1.779m from 1.771m are both marg
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
September 3, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
July’s trade deficit of $88.6bn is up from $71.2bn in June and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit if $133.0bn in March 2025, though not quite as wide as expectations generated by advance goods data. Initial claims at 206k from 204k and continued claims at 1.779m from 1.771m are both marg
Preview: Due September 4 - Canada August Employment - A moderate month after a very strong one
September 3, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in August, a moderate gain to follow a very strong 75.1k in July, similar to the moderate 18.2k increase in June that followed a very strong rise of 87.8k in May. We expect unemployment to hold at 6.4%, after three straight declines.
Money supply - Fed Invites an Awkward Ex Back into its Life
September 3, 2026 10:52 AM UTC
* Following the ‘Easter egg’ M2 reference, Warsh has made clear that ‘money matters’
* But while M2 was name-checked and described as benign, broader measures have been running strongly, well above the referenced 2010 norms
* M4 Divisia gives one of the better currently available measures, con