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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
July 15, 2026 3:52 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t
Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely
July 15, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e
FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
July 15, 2026 3:49 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t
Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely
July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e
Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely
July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e
U.S. June PPI - Lower than expected with May revised down, but still firm yr/yr
July 15, 2026 1:09 PM UTC
June PPI is on the low side of expectations, -0.3% overall, +0.2% ex food and energy and +0.1% ex food energy and trade. The weakness can be seen as corrective from preceding strength though a downward revision to May adds to the negative surprise.
U.S. June PPI - Lower than expected with May revised down, but still firm yr/yr
July 15, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
June PPI is on the low side of expectations, -0.3% overall, +0.2% ex food and energy and +0.1% ex food energy and trade. The weakness can be seen as corrective from preceding strength though a downward revision to May adds to the negative surprise.
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing
July 15, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.
AI Optimism and Credit Markets?
July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl