View:
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
July 9, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)
July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions