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U.S. Outlook: Consumers Vulnerable, but Recession Unlikely
December 12, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
• US GDP growth is likely to look solid in Q3 2025 supported by resilient consumer spending, but with slowing employment growth and resilient inflation weighing on real disposable income that will be difficult to sustain. However, while consumers look vulnerable, business investment looks h
Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 12, 2025 4:17 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
This week's five highlights
December 12, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
FOMC eases by 25bps, dots unchanged from September
Powell's Remark Post FOMC
Swiss SNB Preserving Ammunition
Bank of Canada Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data
UK GDP Shows Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless