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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 18
August 18, 2026 9:06 AM UTC
Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time - though tensions start to show
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 7:23 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei