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EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January
January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
Bank of Canada Minutes from January 28 - Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected
February 11, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 28 meeting which provide no major surprises. The meeting saw rates left unchanged at 2.25% but noted heightened uncertainty, which the minutes also emphasize, with steady policy conditional on the economy evolving as expected.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Positive signals, but risks from weather
February 11, 2026 4:16 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in January industrial production, with ISM manufacturing and manufacturing payrolls suggesting stronger data, though there is some downside risk from bad weather late in the month.
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 11, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger
UK Gilt Vigilantes and Politics
February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
• The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor. Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre