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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
Paying Article

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 26th
Paying Article

June 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance 
Tokyo CPI TO Stay Low
USD/JPY Extend consolidation beneath 161.95 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The opening gap below 1.3200 has given way to a bounce

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Yields to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 15-year high at 3.200%

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

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ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 3
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Quiet Calendar Sees Focus Back at Middle Easy
DXY Further consolidation
USD/JPY and the Silent Interventions

U.S. Fed's Daly - Favors a cautious approach
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

Fed's Daly appears to favor steady policy for now while major developments, including the spread of AI, are considered.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. June Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

Payrolls trending around 100k per month, which is stronger than the labor force trend.

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U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

Psychology for major markets July 2
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 10:17 AM UTC

USD/JPY self-policing ahead of holiday, long liquidation

Europe Summary and Highlights 2 Jul
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 10:10 AM UTC

USD/JPY down 1.5 figs after jittery market pares into holiday, wary of MoF guerrilla tactics 
EUR/GBP extends the range breakdown

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 2
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Payrolls in focus. Probably needs a 100k+/- surprise to prompt excitement
Friday's US holiday does indeed leave mkt wary of Japan intervention, and prompts early covering
EUR/GBP also does break key support, stretching sterling short covering

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Retest 216.00/60 highs
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Break above resistance at 215.50 has seen extension to tag the 216.00 figure

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Settled back from test of 1.6600/20 resistance
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 7:23 AM UTC

Choppy recovery from the 1.6110 May current year low has met with selling pressure at the 1.6600/20 resistance

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Retracing the June gains
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 6:54 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 1.2255 high of last week

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

Chart USD/TWD Update: Extending May gains
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 5:52 AM UTC

Break above resistance at the 31.700/31.800 area has seen gains to approach the 32.000 figure

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Retracing June losses
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 5:13 AM UTC

Edging higher as prices extend bounce from the 17690 June low towards the 18000 level

Chart USD/INR Update: Extend corrective bounce from June low
Paying Article

July 2, 2026 4:58 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from the 94.1450 low has seen break above the 95.0000 level to retest the 95.2250 March high

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