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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
Preview: Due October 5 - U.S. September ISM Services - Maintaining a fairly steady picture
September 23, 2026 5:37 PM UTC
While the S and P services PMI has accelerated sharply though Q3 after being quite subdued in Q1 and Q2, we expect the ISM services index to maintain a fairly steady profile that has been seen in the year to date, correcting lower to 55.0 from August’s 55.4, which was up from 54.1 in July.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 23, 2026 3:42 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 24
September 23, 2026 3:05 PM UTC
Dollar breaks higher as Fed talk hawkish, PMIs surge north, trumping Eurozone gains
Prospects of 'brave' pre-mid-term back-to-back hikes still critical for dollar's jump ahead
Riksbank, Norges, and SNB. Hawkish Norges in the price as oil waits on talks, NOK trims ; CHF rates look ever lower to the cro
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
September 23, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027
September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
· The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated. Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig
U.S. September S&P PMIs - Sharp gains in Manufacturing and Services back improved Q3 GDP signals
September 23, 2026 2:12 PM UTC
September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are startlingly strong, manufacturing at 57.0 from 53.9 and services at 58.7 from 56.5. The composite increased to 58.4 from 56.0. The numbers are consistent with a Fed view that the economy has strengthened recently, with recent data also suggesting that Q3
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade
September 23, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1.
Europe Summary and Highlights 23 Sep
September 23, 2026 10:07 AM UTC
Dollar retains broad bid, moving with spreads on the post Fed action
EUR/USD sees follow through to next support after clearing 1.1450, cable extends toward fib
Despite this, notable positive surprise in EZ PMI, orders to 4 year highs - one to watch
UK PMI in contrasts slightly disappoints if staying i
China and Brazil Outlook: Geo-Politics and Artificial Intelligence
September 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
· China’s growth momentum continued to be sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. Growth is however imbalanced with subdued consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we kept our forecast at 4.4% for 2026 and 4
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E