View:
Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 12, 2026 4:31 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 19 - Canada December CPI - Slower even with upward tax distortion
January 12, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
We expect December’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr (2.11% before rounding) from 2.2% in both October and November, with each of the three Bank of Canada core rates slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, leaving the average core rate at its slowest pace since March.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 12, 2026 1:22 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
Turkiye MPC Preview: Easing Cycle Will Continue on January 22
January 12, 2026 1:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 36.5%-37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 22 supported by continued deceleration trend in inflation in December and relative TRY stability. CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adj
Maximum Trump
January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain. Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa