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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
FOMC Discount Rate minutes show four districts backed a July hike
August 25, 2026 6:44 PM UTC
Minutes from the Fed’s discount rate meetings shortly before the July FOMC meeting show a not very hawkish 4 votes (out of 12) to increase the Discount Rate, from the Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City and Minneapolis Feds.
Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so
August 25, 2026 4:04 PM UTC
We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?
Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?
August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC
* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t
U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail
August 25, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward rev
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
August 25, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 25, 2026 12:17 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.