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This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

CHF/JPY and the carry question
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

·       CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning

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Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
Paying Article

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 27-31
Paying Article

July 24, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

FOMC Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
U.S. Q2 GDP and PCE
BOE Hawkish Noises
Canada Heading for a healthy Q2 GDP 

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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, room to extend gains
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 5:28 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 96.5000 high but pressure remains on the upside as prices extend strong gains from the June low

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 21
Paying Article

July 20, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Iran/U.S. Escalating 
USD/JPY Coiled below 162.70/84 highs

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 5:28 AM UTC

Break above 96.0000/96.3000 area see prices extending gains from the 94.1500 June low

U.S. June NFIB survey - Bounce may be dated, prices strong
Paying Article

July 14, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

June’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since February at 97.4 from 95.3, a reading that was the lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

North American Summary and Highlights 7 August
Freemium Article

August 7, 2026 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell on a weaker than expected US employment report. CAD was particularly strong with Canada’s employment report exceeding expectations. 

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 10-14
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

Key focus this week is US CPI. We look for 0.1% headline, 0.2% core
UK GDP consensus 0.1% in Jun but downside risks from heatwave?
Mkt eyes BoJ meeting comments for clues

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 10-14
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

August 7, 2026 3:53 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated losses

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Labor market in weak balance
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 2:47 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin's comments on the employment data do not suggest he has swung much from a balanced position on whether to tighten.

U.S. July Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 2:00 PM UTC

Payrolls dip on government and leisure/hospitality, unemployment lower, earnings losing momentum.

Canada July Employment - Labor market slack being reduced
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 1:50 PM UTC

Canada’s July employment report comes as quite a contrast to the US one, with a strong employment gain of 75.1k and a fall in unemployment to 6.4% from 6.5% coming despite a 60.5k bounce in the labor force. Wages were however weak in the Canadian report, falling to 3.0% yr/yr from 3.7%. Canada’s

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

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U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
Freemium Article

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

August 7, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls to be Stronger than June
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June
The Fed's Balance Sheet
A.I. and Equities
USD/JPY Remain Capped

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 12:09 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced at 182.50 - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 11:58 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation around congestion resistance at 182.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating minor gains - further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 158.55, where unwinding overbought intraday studies are prompting consolidation

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