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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
November 9, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Nov 9-13
November 9, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempted to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX r
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - euro shorts extend; large yen cross positioning
November 9, 2026 9:31 AM UTC
IMM data shows euro shorts nudging out further, now some 1.7stdev, largest since 2015 that got 10% bigger at peak
GBP short's retreat - though remain - on it's recent policy and fiscal rank re-pricing
Positioning in classic risk off crosses quite extreme, NZD and AUD +2.7 and 2.5 stdev, versus -1.8std
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Nov 9-13
November 9, 2026 7:40 AM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempted to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX r
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 9-13
November 6, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempts to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX ri