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Car Tariffs Then Lenient Reciprocal Tariffs?
March 27, 2025 8:59 AM UTC
The 25% tariffs on cars underlines that tariffs are not just about getting better trade deals, but in Trump’s view raising (tax) revenue and trying to shift production back to the U.S. Combined with other tariffs being implemented, plus policy uncertainty, we see a moderate overall hit from t
Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
March 13, 2025 8:35 AM UTC
Models would suggest that the current and prospective direct tariff impact should slow GDP growth to a 1.5% pace, which should see slow Fed easing in 2025 given the boost to inflation. However, the policy uncertainty means that business and consumer behaviour could see a large adverse hit that keeps
Bank of Canada - With risks on both sides, timing matters
March 12, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased as expected by 25bps to 2.75%, a level it sees as neutral. Given massive uncertainty clear forward guidance is impossible but they made no attempt to hide the gravity of the problem, Governor Tiff Macklem stating Canada is facing a new crisis from which the economic impact c
Trump Latest Thinking
March 5, 2025 11:07 AM UTC
Bottom line: President Donald Trump signaled that he is committed to tariffs to raise revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade relations. This three part approach will likely shape implementation of further product and reciprocal tariffs from April. However, reports sugges
EMFX Outlook: Divergence versus the USD
March 26, 2025 9:16 AM UTC
EM currencies will be helped by the ongoing USD downtrend against DM currencies, but prospects also depend on relative inflation differentials versus the USD and starting point in terms of valuations. The Brazilian Real (BRL), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) should all make modest s
U.S. Trade Surplus Countries: No Special Treatment?
March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC
Quick dilutions of tariffs or exemption will likely be slow in coming for countries that the U.S. has trade surpluses with, as the Trump administration are currently more focused on tariffs for tax revenue and trying to switch production back to the U.S. than trade deals. Trade policy uncertainty
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
March 31, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD despite the global market turmoil on tariff uncertainty fear. The biggest winners are INR by 0.38%, followed by PHP & TWD 0.01%; while the largest losers are KRW 0.3%, MYR 0.15%, SGD 0.13%, THB 0.11%, HKD 0.04% and CNH 0.03%.
USD/CNH is
Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
Canada January GDP - Looking healthy ahead of the trade war
March 28, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
January Canadian GDP with a 0.4% increase was even stronger than the preliminary 0.3% estimate made with December’s report. Canada’s economy was clearly gaining momentum ahead of the emerging trade war. The preliminary estimate for February is unchanged. Negatives may follow as the trade war esc
U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa
Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of