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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 14
July 13, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony
Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?
July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC
· The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and
Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields
July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· 10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation). 10yr nominal yields could
