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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
· The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we
China and EM Asia Outlook: Divergent Trends
June 24, 2026 6:22 AM UTC
· China’s growth momentum is being sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. However, growth is imbalanced with modest consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we forecast 4.4% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027. Chi