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CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 10-14
August 7, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
August 7, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 7, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
Canada July Employment - Labor market slack being reduced
August 7, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment report comes as quite a contrast to the US one, with a strong employment gain of 75.1k and a fall in unemployment to 6.4% from 6.5% coming despite a 60.5k bounce in the labor force. Wages were however weak in the Canadian report, falling to 3.0% yr/yr from 3.7%. Canada’s
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso
August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC
Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew