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U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage
September 9, 2026 12:23 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to see a third straight monthly fall, by 2.0% to 3.98m, which would be the lowest level since a matching June 2025. That would see yr/yr growth slip to -1.2% from a positive 0.7%.
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
September 9, 2026 12:06 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
2026 Q2 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
September 9, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agenc