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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
September 14, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 15
September 14, 2026 3:22 PM UTC
Spec data shows mkt turned long kiwi - often a contrary indicator
Risk sentiment turns weaker, squeezing dollar, as oil catches up with sentiment; AI complications
UK labour market data, followed by CPI, provide the run in to the next BoE meeting
Canada August CPI - Near consensus, but upside risks building
September 14, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
August’s Canadian CPI was stable at 3.0% yr/yr as expected with the Bank of Canada’s core rates broadly stable too. However the seasonally adjusted ex food and energy CPI (not one of the BoC’s core rates) saw a fourth straight 0.3% increase, and its yr/yr rate is picking up. Inflationary ris
Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower - studies under pressure
September 14, 2026 12:11 PM UTC
Consolidation within the 1.3500 - 1.3550 range is giving way to a fresh pullback, with prices once again pressuring pressuring support at the 1.3475 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.3500.
Daily stochastics and the daily Tension Indicator have turned bearish, highlighting a deterioration
Kiwi longs as a contrary indicator
September 14, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
Mkt turned long NZD in latest IMM week
That has tended to prove a contrary indicator rather than a bullish one more often than not
Descriptive stats show a skew towards downside kiwi corrections in the following window
May also be suggestive of wider current risk positioning in FX
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 14-18
September 14, 2026 9:42 AM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un