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Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
Preview: Due January 26 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend positive
January 16, 2026 4:23 PM UTC
We expect November durable goods orders to increase by 4.5%, led by a strong rise in aircraft as implied by Boeing data, though we expect ex transport orders to show a positive trend persisting with a rise of 0.6%.
U.S. January NAHB Homebuilders Index - Revival losing momentum
January 16, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
January’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 from 39 has seen a correction after three straight gains. The gains in Q4 appear to have been supported by Fed easing. If the Fed pauses in Q1, the housing sector revival may lose momentum too.
U.S. Decmember Industrial Production - Business equipment leading, autos weak
January 16, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
December industrial production is stronger than expected with a 0.4% increase with November revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%, though October was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1%. Manufacturing rose by 0.2%, following an upwardly revised 0.3% in November, but has still not fully erased a downwardly revis
Preview: Due January 19 - Canada December CPI - Slower even with upward tax distortion
January 16, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect December’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr (2.11% before rounding) from 2.2% in both October and November, with each of the three Bank of Canada core rates slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, leaving the average core rate at its slowest pace since March.
UK: More BOE Easing and Politics/Fiscal Policy
January 16, 2026 11:55 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely deliver more rate cuts than discounted by money markets and we forecast three 25bps cuts in 2026 to 3.00%. The UK labor market is weak enough to prompt further wage inflation and underlying inflation slowdown, while fiscal policy is tightening multi-year.
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