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China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC
Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe
FX Weekly Strategy: October 21st-25th
October 18, 2024 3:13 PM UTC
Fairly quiet week suggests relatively steady FX markets
EUR/USD still biased lower and USD/JPY still stretched…
…but a turn lower in EUR/JPY may require weaker equity sentiment
GBP strength likely to be sustained unless PMIs surprise
CAD risks on the upside on BoC
U.S. House Race Becoming Closer
October 16, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
The probability of a Republican clean sweep has jumped to a 25% probability, which could see a future President Trump go beyond renewing 2017 lapsing tax cuts. It could also increase the odds of tariffs being increased to fund extra tax cuts! This would likely curtail the Fed easing cycle and pu
UK GDP Review: Momentum Moderating?
October 11, 2024 6:41 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only two of
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. September CPI - Core returning to trend, gasoline softer
October 1, 2024 12:02 PM UTC
We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.
U.S. Outlook: Fed Focus Turning To Downside Risks
September 23, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
• The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of labor market slowing which poses downside risks to the still impressive resilience of consumer spending, which has sustained healthy GDP growth through Q2 2024. We expect GDP growth below potential in the second half of 2024 and the first half of
FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 22nd
October 22, 2024 8:58 AM UTC
Carry trading continues in quiet markets…
…but JPY weakness unlikely to persist without further yield spread moves
CHF looks vulnerable if risk positive tone persists
USD continues to benefit from rising expectation of Trump victory
GBP may still have potential for gains on UK budget
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, October 22nd
October 22, 2024 4:07 AM UTC
Carry trading continues in quiet markets…
…but JPY weakness unlikely to persist without further yield spread moves
CHF looks vulnerable if risk positive tone persists
USD continues to benefit from rising expectation of Trump victory
GBP may still have potential for gains on UK budget
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 22nd
October 21, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
Carry trading continues in quiet markets…
…but JPY weakness unlikely to persist without further yield spread moves
CHF looks vulnerable if risk positive tone persists
USD continues to benefit from rising expectation of Trump victory
GBP may still have potential for gains on UK budget
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 22nd
October 21, 2024 4:05 PM UTC
Carry trading continues in quiet markets…
…but JPY weakness unlikely to persist without further yield spread moves
CHF looks vulnerable if risk positive tone persists
USD continues to benefit from rising expectation of Trump victory
GBP may still have potential for gains on UK budget
Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Weaker on strike and weather, but perhaps less so than payrolls
October 21, 2024 3:47 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which while matching our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls is stronger than our 40k forecast for the more directly comparable private sector non-farm payroll. We expect ADP data to prove less sensitive to