View:
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
June 23, 2026 3:38 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 23, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit showing signs of stabilizing
June 23, 2026 11:58 AM UTC
We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $206.8bn, up from $190.7bn in Q4 which would be the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn in Q1 2025. The deterioration from Q4 could however be modest with trade data suggesting that Q4’s deficit will be revised