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This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

CHF/JPY and the carry question
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

·       CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning

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Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
Paying Article

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 27-31
Paying Article

July 24, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

FOMC Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
U.S. Q2 GDP and PCE
BOE Hawkish Noises
Canada Heading for a healthy Q2 GDP 

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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, room to extend gains
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 5:28 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 96.5000 high but pressure remains on the upside as prices extend strong gains from the June low

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 21
Paying Article

July 20, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Iran/U.S. Escalating 
USD/JPY Coiled below 162.70/84 highs

North American Summary and Highlights 17 August
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer in Europe but corrected higher in North America assisted by gains in oil. 

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Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t

Chart USD/MXN Update: Fresh year lows - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low around congestion support at 17.0000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Short-term reactions before further losses unfold
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 4:06 PM UTC

Anticipated selling interest has reached 1.3845

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 18
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time, for now
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.

U.S. August NAHB Homebuilders Index - Firmer but still subdued
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

August’s NAHB homebuilders index has seen an unexpected rise to 35 from 34 to follow two straight slowings but remains fairly subdued and is not signaling any significant move in new home sales.

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.

USD/CAD flows: CPI data set aside on run in to the key trade event risk
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

CPI data firmer, supporting message from recent real economy data
CAD however circumspect on the run in to the trade deadline, talks seen going to wire

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending late-June gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

Minor consolidation is giving way to anticipated continuation of late-June gains

U.S. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strongest since December 2021
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

August’s Empire State manufacturing index at 20.6 from 15.6 is the strongest since December 2021 and implies that a recent investment-fueled revival in manufacturing persists, though it should be noted that the Empire State survey is quite volatile.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a push higher in EUR-driven trade

Canada July CPI - Like the economy, picking up from recent core weakness
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

July’s Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% is slightly stronger than expected, with the Bank of Canada’s core rates on balance slightly firmer, if still close to target for CPI-Median and CPI-Trim. The data suggests underlying inflation is about where the BoC wants, and may reduce f

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range trade - daily studies ticking higher
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt further cautious trade within the relatively tight 159.00 - 159.50 range

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending late-June gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

Cautious/choppy trade around 1.3500 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Balanced beneath fresh year high
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

March gains have extended, with prices posting a fresh year high around 0.9410~ before settling into consolidation beneath 0.9400

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 Aug
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 10:26 AM UTC

USD generally softer across the board on ongoing summer low vol and Fed expectations retreat drivers
CHF also sees a technical bounce as EUR/CHF uptrend held by test of Dec25 resistance

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From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

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