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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
Bank of Canada Preview for June 10: A little less hawkish despite continued energy risk
June 4, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 10 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. This meeting will contain no quarterly Monetary Policy Report and hence no updated forecasts. However, since the last meeting on April 29 GDP and core inflation have come in softer than expected, but elevated energy
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
June 4, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
U.S. Initial Claims up in holiday week, Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both revised down
June 4, 2026 12:56 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k in the week to May 30 are up from 212k and the highest since February 7, though the data should be treated with some caution given that the week included the Memorial Day holiday, which can cause seasonal adjustment difficulties.
Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture
June 4, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.
More Yuan Appreciation, but Controlled
June 4, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
• The Yuan has been appreciating driven by a large trade surplus; the ongoing trade truce with the U.S. after Trump May visit and official acceptance of Yuan gains. Even so, we feel that China’s authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention to stop the move becoming too
UK GDP Preview (Jun 12): GDP Upside Surprises To Reverse?
June 4, 2026 9:49 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even in the first month after the Middle East conflict. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since Labour took of