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Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 4, 2025 7:57 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 4, 2025 2:56 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
December 4, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
U.S. Initial Claims fell sharply in Thanksgiving week, other labor market signals mixed
December 4, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
Weekly initial claims at 191k from 218k are exceptionally low but there may be some seasonal adjustment issues with Thanksgiving. Unadjusted however initial claims also fell, by 49k to 197k. While this fall in initial claims may be overstated it is the fourth straight decline.
China/Japan: The Australia Playbook or Grey Warfare
December 4, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
China will likely escalate pressure on Japan to back down over it less pacifist stance on self-defense, as it wants to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S. One option is to repeat the 2020 copybook when China banned coal imports from Australia for 3 years. A 2nd alternative is grey warfare a