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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
Preview: Due July 20 - Canada June CPI - Energy to correct lower but BoC core rates seen mostly stable
July 17, 2026 5:39 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to correct lower to 3.0% yr/yr from May’s 3.2% which was the highest since December 2023, with a slowing to 2.98% from 3.23% before rounding. The Bank of Canada’s core rates however are likely to remain mostly stable with CPI-Median at 2.1% and CPI-Trim at 2.0%, both
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories
July 17, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, though there is still uncertainty over June data for trade and inventories, which we expect to act as negatives in the quarter as a whole, while assuming some improvement in their June data.
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories
July 17, 2026 5:12 PM UTC
We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, though there is still uncertainty over June data for trade and inventories, which we expect to act as negatives in the quarter as a whole, while assuming some improvement in their June data.
Preview: Due July 28 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 17, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect an advance June trade deficit of $100.8bn, down from $105.9bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026.
Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 20-24
July 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC
The highlight of the week comes from the ECB meeting and press conference, although we do not expect it to provide much guidance regarding September, sticking to the non-pre-commit language, to keep options open depending on data and geopolitical developments.
The UK has its busy week, but data is
Preview: Due July 27 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to bounce, ex transport slower but still firm
July 17, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
We expect a 3.7% increase in June durable goods orders after a 4.5% May decline as aircraft regain strength after a sharp dip in May, with a 0.9% increase ex transport, still firm, but less so than in most recent months.
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 20-24
July 17, 2026 2:34 PM UTC
ECB meeting main event, though Lagarde will be reluctance to provide a clear hint on the September meeting.
Tech correction could be more relevant this week, watching performance of broader market and volatility
New UK PM takes over and confirms cabinet. Sterling already bought the rumour near-term?
U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated
July 17, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East.
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter
July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment.
U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts rebound, elsewhere modest slippage
July 17, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
June housing starts rose a stronger than expected 19.0% to 1.427m after a 15.2% decline in May, the moves ked by the volatile multiples sector. Single starts saw a third straight decline, while permits, -3.0% to 1.367m, saw a second straight decline. Underlying trend appears to be easing.
ECB: Bark No Bite
July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher. We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t