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U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC

While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,

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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

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Congress Struggles Over Budget Bill
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

The House is struggling to reach consensus on the beautiful huge 10yr budget bill, as GOP budget hawks want to see multi trillion expenditure cuts, though eventually the 10yr expenditure cuts will likely compromise around USD 0.5-1.0trn.  Tax cuts are also unlikely to match President Trump campaign

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China/U.S. Trade War and next To Talks?
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 10:02 AM UTC

China’s targeted and measured counter tariffs against the U.S. are designed to push the U.S. towards the negotiating table on the wider issue of the U.S./China trade deficit.  Negotiating will likely start into the spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new ob

FX Weekly Strategy: February 3rd-7th
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

US employment report the main data focus
USD/JPY biased lower, EUR/USD more data dependent
CAD risks on the downside on tariff concerns
GBP has scope to weaken on BoE meeting

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Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected, sees balanced risks if a trade war can be avoided
Paying Article

January 29, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada eased by 25bps to 3.0% as expected, and confirmed the ending of Quantitative Tightening, as had been outlined by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on January 16. The BoC has delivered some fairly optimistic forecasts, but these are made assuming an absence of tariffs, given that the B

The Aussie Chapter 5.2: Another tale of two cities
Freemium Article

February 3, 2025 5:25 AM UTC

In Chapter 5.2, we will continue to look into the dynamic between the Aussie and Kiwi after central bank policy part ways and what to expect when RBA tilts towards easing.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 28th
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:58 AM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating retest of 7.3000
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:41 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break above the 7.2500 congestion to reach the 7.3000 level

AUD/USD flows: Risk continue to get sagged
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:11 AM UTC

The risk asset continue to get sagged

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 3:22 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low through the 34.00 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Break to fresh year high
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 3:09 AM UTC

 Break above resistance at the 16384/16400 area has seen follow-through above the 2024 year high at 16474

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending sharp rally
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:47 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break of the 1440.00 level to retest strong resistance at the 1455.00/1460.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending bounce from 1.3312 low
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:29 AM UTC

Sharply higher through resistance at the 1.3420/1.3460 previous lows to extend gaing from the 1.3312 low

USD/JPY flows: Dragged by sentiment
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Japanese labour unions push for record wage hike amid rising costs
Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending rejection from 1.2700
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

Turned lower from test of the 1.2700 level as daily studies unwind the deep overbought readings to reach support at 1.2600

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 2:02 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend rejection from the 1.0500/33 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 156.16/00 support has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure to extend the broader losses from October high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend consolidation above 148.56 low
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:57 AM UTC

Drifting narrowly in range as prices extend consolidation above the 148.56 low

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:46 AM UTC

Break of the .5700 congestion extending losses to pressure strong support at the .5622/.5600 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6250/33 support
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:21 AM UTC

Break of the .6300 level has seen sharp losses to reach support at the .6250/33 area

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as risk sentiment continues to tread lower on U.S. tariff concern and soft global outlook. The biggest loser is KRW by 0.92%, followed by SGD 0.71%, THB 0.61%, CNH and IDR 0.49%, CNY 0.39%, MYR 0.27%, TWD 0.08%, HKD 0.04% and PHP 0.02%

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

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Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6300 has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

U.S. Fed's Schmid - More cautious about inflation
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:36 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is concerrned with recent data from inflation, and inflation expectations

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Argentina: Recovery Complete?
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation 

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

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ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Poised for further losses
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a test above 18.5000
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for a test below 1.5000
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:38 AM UTC

The test above strong resistance at the 1.5070 Fibonacci retracement has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.5100

Psychology for major markets February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

The test of support at the 0.8900 break level and the 0.8910 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce