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AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:04 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
October 12, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
US Sep CPI in focus – upside risks persist?
October 12, 2026 11:28 AM UTC
While we look for a consensus 0.2% core CPI, background trends do suggest some risks
Both seasonals and high headline CPI months bring some generic upside skews
Along with French/euro developments, CPI prints are the major focus for the week, dollar defensively supported prior
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - euro shorts ramp up (though not extreme big picture)
October 12, 2026 7:46 AM UTC
IMM data confirms the jump into euro shorts, largest negative position since Feb-20, playing to current consolidation of fast run
That said, only around -1 stdev, not super extreme by past standards (Apr2015 for instance got 2.2x more short)
Dollar overall is back out to the recent overall net long 'w