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Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S and P PMIs - Slightly firmer despite Middle East risk
April 16, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
We expect modest increases in April’s S and P PMIs, manufacturing to a healthy 52.5 from 52.3 and services to a neutral 50.0 after March’s 49.8 fell below neutral for the first time since January 2023.
CBR Will Likely Cut the Rate to 14.5% on April 24 Despite Risks
April 16, 2026 1:45 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—we expect the CBR to continue its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. Our year-end key rate forecast is 13% for 2026
U.S. March Industrial Production - Hit by corrections in mining, utilities and autos
April 16, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
Contrasting resilience in Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys into April, March industrial production is surprisingly weak, with a 0.5% decline overall and manufacturing down by 0.1%. It is too early to conclude this is a response to the energy shock rather than simply a weak month aft
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, price indices mostly firmer but not alarming
April 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
The latest US data suggests the economy so far is holding up well to the oil shock, with initial claims low at 207k from 218k and the April Philly Fed at 26.7 from 18.1, reaching its strongest since January 2025. Price data is mostly firmer, but not alarmingly so.
Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March
April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st
Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?
April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a