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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
U.S. May Advance Goods Trade - Exports slip, imports remain strong, negative for GDP
June 26, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
May’s advance goods US trade deficit of $105.8bn is a sharp deterioration from April’s $83.0bn and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $158.7bn seen in March 2025. Exports plunged by 5.4% after four straight solid gains while imports increased by 3.6%, this the fourth straight solid
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June
June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU
U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE
June 26, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag
Mexico: Banxico Pause, But MXN and USMCA Renegotiations
June 26, 2026 7:04 AM UTC
· As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the focus now on the lagged benefit of easing and also what will happen with the USMCA negotiations. Banxico will likely keep the current policy rate through end 2026, given concerns that the Fed could tighten – eve
EUR/USD flows: Consolidating into w/e, risk heavy but choppy
June 26, 2026 6:44 AM UTC
Still somewhat slower heading into the weekend, though the heavier corrective risk tone is still prevailing – Nasdaq future off 1% to be inching a low for the week. It still needs to go some way further to be actually breaking down from an 8-week top if that’s how this choppier action if recent