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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
U.S. July JOLTS Job Openings, August ISM Manufacturing - Softer than expected, but not weak
September 1, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest US data is on the weak side of expectations though should not be seen as weak. August’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.6 is down from 55.6 in July though still stronger than every month in the first half of the year. July job openings increased by 89k, but the rise is more than fully off
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC
We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.
EUR/USD flows: HICP up, ECB ready, details nuanced. Blog says 'its all energy' so be measured
September 1, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
HICP as expected, leaves ECB follow up in Sep 100% priced in
Details show all overshoot currently all in energy/processed food
An ECB Blog today (note to the hawks?), gives structural analysis that all energy supply side driven, unlike pandemic, and so requires measured response
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 1-4
September 1, 2026 9:09 AM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and G20 re
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - $ longs cut back before Warsh
September 1, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
Latest IMM data showed dollar longs cut back across most pairs, including CAD, CHF, GBP...
JPY a slight exception, though back to only slightly above average shorts
All prior to Warsh's hawkish pivot, and mkt remains short CAD overall into trade spat, long dollar overall