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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:02 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
UK BoE Preview: One and Done?
November 3, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
November 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
November 3, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.