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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
China LGFV Repair Rather Than Reboot
July 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC
• Our assessment is that this ongoing exercise will likely have a small boost to GDP growth. LGFV’s debt restructuring could allow some new borrowing, but the big issue is that LGFV and LG finances are dependent on one off property taxes with the building of new property. The overhang
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jun 30
July 7, 2026 8:25 AM UTC
Latest IMM data highlights market was still strongly spec GBP short - playing to the squeeze and EUR/GBP breakdown
NZD shorts also extended and so prone to bounce if RBNZ does not 'disappoint'
JPY shorts remain at the highs - so still a short base for noise if/when jitters strikes, as US holiday sho