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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 17
September 16, 2026 8:00 PM UTC
Fed pivots to catch up with the curve on inflation, dots see 1 (to 2) more hikes
Swift turn does enough to bolster dollar, cable especially pressured unless BoE changes tune
USD/JPY runs into supply up here, with the BoJ Friday now critical, even more important it matches the pick up in pace
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Key highlights from Fed SEP pivot, stepping $ higher
September 16, 2026 7:16 PM UTC
Key highlights from the FOMC Sep, as Fed funds projections lifted higher
Market expectations for this year validated with upside skew, 2027 slightly below though largest number see the extra hike delivered, narrowing the gap
EUR/USD breaks down to around 1.1475~, 61.8% retracement, with 1.1420 below
US
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Fed shifts gears, sees quick, short dash to get back up to the curve on inflation
September 16, 2026 6:22 PM UTC
Clear shift in emphasis to catching up to the curve on elevated inflation
Dots suggest the Fed is minded to catch up with a quick string of corrective tightenings this year before hoping to plateau at less accommodative FF
Speed of adjustment bolsters dollar, despite less hawkish long projections than
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: mind the gap - dots have a large one to bridge...
September 16, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
Looking back at the June SEP, dots shows what a large gap has developed to current mkt pricing
Uncertain, mixed FOMC may struggle to validate that leap and leave quite a large divergence behind
Interesting to judge markets' reaction to disagreement.
MMKT and bonds have got oversold in recent accelera
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha