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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing
September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing
September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 21-25
September 18, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f