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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC

US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s

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Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
Freemium Article

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring July high
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.3475 low has seen gains to retest the 1.3550/58, July high

North American Summary and Highlights 17 August
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer in Europe but corrected higher in North America assisted by gains in oil. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

September 4, 2026 11:00 PM UTC

U.S.-Iran Exchanging Fire Again
Bank of Canada Now expecting a December tightening
Another 25bps for RBNZ 
U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions
USD/JPY Consolidating test of 155.22/00 support

North American Summary and Highlights 4 September
Freemium Article

September 4, 2026 7:53 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was supported by strong US employment data, particularly versus the CAD given a contrast with a weak Canadian employment report. 

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

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Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Maintaining a healthy trend
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 6:40 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in August industrial production with a 0.4% increase in manufacturing, the latter up from a 0.2% increase in July though for manufacturing ex autos we expect a second straight rise of 0.4%. This would maintain a healthy trend, supported by AI investment. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

September 4, 2026 3:41 PM UTC

Consolidation around congestion support at 1.3800 has given way to a bounce in CAD-dominant trade

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts due for a bounce, but trend subdued
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 3:03 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to increase by 8.2% to 1340k after a 12.4% decline in July while permits fall by 1.6% to 1410k after a 4.3% increase in July. 

DM Data Weekly Sep 7-11
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 2:54 PM UTC

US CPI the big data release, key for the Sep FOMC. We see upside risks at 0.3% for core
ECB hike fully priced in. Forecasts and presser more of interest
BoE gives testimony to the TSC. Message has remained a majority wait and see stance

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Trump making sure Sep FOMC is political minefield
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

Trump renews the political pressure on the Fed
Makes for an even more 'interesting' debate at the next FOMC

Canada August Employment - Fall corrective, but tariff risks ahead
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 41.7k decline is much weaker than expected though the fall can be seen as corrective from three straight healthy gains. The unemployment rate was stable at 6.4% though the average hourly wage of permanent employees at 2.0% was a significant slowing from 3.0

Chart AUD/USD Update: Studies improving
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

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U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
Freemium Article

September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy after sharp losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 181.00 has bounced from 180.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 155.25~ monthly low of 3 August is giving way to a bounce

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Good upside on payrolls, though earnings steady. CPI more critical
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Good upside on the payrolls data, at least outside of earnings, suggests momentum stays solid
Fed will probably stick to view that labor market healthy, firm and generally balanced, especially with earnings not accelerating
That leaves inflation data as the key policy data factor

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Lower in range - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 11:26 AM UTC

Anticipated minor gains have tested above resistance at the 99.50 congestion lows, with prices meeting renewed selling interest beneath 100.00, before settling lower once again

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 10:18 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.9375 has given way to a bounce

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 Sep
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 10:16 AM UTC

Waiting for payrolls for next steer into the weekend
Otherwise some corrective bounce from USD/JPY on the fast run down towards 155
And EUR/USD holds near to 1.16 expiries into the data

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 4
Paying Article

September 4, 2026 10:07 AM UTC

U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls Show Corrections from recent payroll weakness 
Canada August Employment A moderate month 
Japan Household Spending Closely Watched 

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