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U.S. Economic Outlook under Trump
November 11, 2024 7:23 PM UTC
Uncertainty over how the U.S. election results will impact the economic outlook remains very high, but the evidence at present suggests that incoming President Donald Trump, assuming Republican control of the House is confirmed, will attempt to implement a substantial part of his campaign promises.
China Yuan10trn Package: Shifting Debt Not Stimulus
November 11, 2024 10:06 AM UTC
Details of the Yuan10trn fiscal package show that it is all directed at a debt swap for LGFV’s and repackaging hidden local government debt. This will have little net fiscal stimulus. True fiscal stimulus will be seen for 2025 GDP growth, but it could be delayed until further details are seen
FX Weekly Strategy: November 11th-15th
November 8, 2024 3:54 PM UTC
Market unlikely to move sharply without more detail of Trump plans
USD still likely to remain well supported
GBP strength to be sustained unless labour market data is weak
Little reason for a significant EUR recovery
JPY could benefit further if we see solid Japanese Q3 GDP data
RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite
Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC
Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024.
France: The Beleaguered Consumer Hit Further by Fiscal Impasse
December 2, 2024 5:07 PM UTC
As France’s political deadlock intensifies amid a likely toppling of the fledgling government, markets are worried about the fiscal fall-out of what may at best be emergency legislation, a so-called Special Law that would keep the country running, but with funding approved month by month. To som
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months
December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC
November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.
Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened
December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin
Eurozone: What Services Inflation?
December 2, 2024 1:28 PM UTC
While real economy considerations seem to have taken over as the policy focus for the ECB majority, there are still some mutterings about apparent resilient services inflation. The latter is certainly the case when such inflation is measured on the conventional but possibly untimely y/y basis. How
Top Trump Tariff Threats
December 2, 2024 10:08 AM UTC
Internal dynamics within BRICS argues against a BRICS currency due to divergent economies and structures, though BRICS could one day look to have a payment system. Nevertheless, the threat of tariffs on BRICS if they form a new currency will also likely help the USD against EM currencies in H1 202
