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CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Still firm, if with some slowing on prices
August 13, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders with a 0.7% increase ex defense and a 0.8% increase ex transport. This will suggest some loss of what remains healthy underlying momentum, though the slowing probably reflects prices more than volumes.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors
August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show
U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors
August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show