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This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

CHF/JPY and the carry question
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

·       CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning

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Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
Paying Article

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 27-31
Paying Article

July 24, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

FOMC Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
U.S. Q2 GDP and PCE
BOE Hawkish Noises
Canada Heading for a healthy Q2 GDP 

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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, room to extend gains
Paying Article

July 22, 2026 5:28 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 96.5000 high but pressure remains on the upside as prices extend strong gains from the June low

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 21
Paying Article

July 20, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Iran/U.S. Escalating 
USD/JPY Coiled below 162.70/84 highs

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 5:28 AM UTC

Break above 96.0000/96.3000 area see prices extending gains from the 94.1500 June low

U.S. June NFIB survey - Bounce may be dated, prices strong
Paying Article

July 14, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

June’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since February at 97.4 from 95.3, a reading that was the lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

North American Summary and Highlights 10 August
Freemium Article

August 10, 2026 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - Oil and UST yields picked as did USD/JPY though USD moves were modest elsewhere. 

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Suggests multiple rate hikes will be needed
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 7:39 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who dissented for tightening in July, is sounding increasingly hawkish. 

Is CAD poised for a short-squeeze?
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 5:03 PM UTC

There's a decent argument that, event-risk given, CAD may be poised for a short-squeeze
Positioning is extreme and against the grain of recent $ moves
 Data has been surprising to the upside supporting a shift in momentum
Lead indicator trends support a recent move back toward recovery and outperforma

Weekly Chart USD/MXN Update: Balanced just above year lows - studies under pressure
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

Cautious trade within the broad 16.3000 - 16.5000 range is giving way to fresh losses

Chart USD/CAD Update: Poised for further losses
Freemium Article

August 10, 2026 3:47 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following recent sharp USD- and CAD-driven losses

FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 2:50 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b

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FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 11
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

An argument for looking for a short CAD squeeze risk ahead
RBA the main interest Tues, no chance of a hike priced in. 
Wed's US CPI, as well as Iran, dominate the weekly outlook still

Monthly US Chart 10 Year Yield: Consolidating gains - studies rising
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 1:47 PM UTC

Choppy trade around 4.500% has given way to a break higher, with yields reaching 4.745% before settling into fresh consolidation.

Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.

Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring range highs - studies rising
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 12:20 PM UTC

Little change, as choppy trade gives way to a retest of congestion resistance at 1.3500.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the tight 0.9320/50 range

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC

IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque

Europe Summary and Highlights 10 Aug
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

USD/JPY clear last week's high, building off recent basing, slight extra pop
NOK off a touch after lower core CPI

Chart USD/CHF Update: Choppy trade - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a pullback

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