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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 29
October 28, 2026 7:05 PM UTC
FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Fed holds, 10-2 vote, bullish on growth and Dec hike still seems on track
October 28, 2026 6:12 PM UTC
Limited reaction to expected pause, details still suggest Dec hike eyed, as priced
Market may be tempted to cover some fast money dollar longs intraday, but no great lasting impact
Focus shifts to presser then ECB
ECB Preview: October Hold but Markets to Focus on Response to Widening Spreads
October 28, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
The ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold this Thursday with financial markets instead focusing on the tone of the statement and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. In particular, analysts will be keen to hear whether September’s hawkish language has changed given France
ECB Preview: October Hold but Markets to Focus on Response to Widening Spreads
October 28, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
The ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold this Thursday with financial markets instead focusing on the tone of the statement and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. In particular, analysts will be keen to hear whether September’s hawkish language has changed given France
Bank of Canada - A cautious tightening cycle starts
October 28, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to tighten by 25bps to 2.50% was as expected by the markets with the risks of elevated oil prices the principal reason behind the move. Uncertainty means the BoC will be cautious going forward, but further rate hikes look likely, if not at consecutive meetings. We now
Bank of Canada - A cautious tightening cycle starts
October 28, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to tighten by 25bps to 2.50% was as expected by the markets with the risks of elevated oil prices the principal reason behind the move. Uncertainty means the BoC will be cautious going forward, but further rate hikes look likely, if not at consecutive meetings. We now
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation
October 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024.
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.