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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain
September 24, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, alon
Canada July retail sales correct lower but August seen stronger
September 24, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
July Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% decline are not quite as weak as the -0.8% preliminary estimate given with June’s report. The decline follows a 0.6% increase in June but the preliminary estimate for August is more positive, up by 1.3%.
US Initial Claims remain very low, Q2 Current Account deficit increases but narrower than expected
September 24, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
Initial claims at 197k remain very low with last week (the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll) revised up to 198k from 196k. Continued claims, covering the week before initial claims at 1.719m are marginally up from 1.717m, but last week was revised from 1.730m, and is now a sharp 48k fa
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3
September 24, 2026 12:00 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3.
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 24
September 24, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
Dollar breaks higher as Fed talk hawkish, PMIs surge north, trumping Eurozone gains
Prospects of 'brave' pre-mid-term back-to-back hikes still critical for dollar's jump ahead
Norges hikes and sees likely steady ahead; SNB a hawkish hold, brings next hike forward; SNB remains dovish, keeps rates an ex
EUR/NOK, USD/NOK flows: Norges exercises hike, central view is now a pause
September 24, 2026 8:25 AM UTC
Norges exercises hike option; keying of external price impulses from here
It's main scenario is pause at current restrictive level before trimming
Mkt is already a little more hawkish than the central view
Riksbank: December Hike
September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
· The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important. It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect. This would also avoid too much Swedi