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U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far
May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i
Big Beautiful Bill will bring larger US budget deficits
May 23, 2025 4:32 PM UTC
The “Big Beautiful Bill” on fiscal policy passed by the House was costed by the Congressional Budget Office on May 20 and shows a significant boost to the budget deficit in the remainder of the current Trump presidential term. This is because tax cuts have been front loaded and spending cuts bac
India Q4 FY25 GDP Preview: Growth Rebounds, But Underlying Demand Still Uneven
May 23, 2025 3:43 PM UTC
While the Q4 FY25 GDP figures indicate a rebound, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain. The economy's heavy dependence on government spending raises concerns about long-term fiscal health. India's economic recovery in Q4 FY25 reflects a partial rebound facilitated by government expenditure
U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals
May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April
Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway. Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals. ECB wage tracker and
Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
May 23, 2025 1:20 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.
Canada March Retail Sales rise, with autos strong and gasoline weak, April seen firmer
May 23, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
Canada’s 0.8% rise in March retail sales is slightly stronger than a 0.7% preliminary estimate made with February’s release, but the rise is more than fully explained by what was the first rise in three months for autos, possibly related to concerns about upcoming tariffs. Ex auto sales fell by
India CPI Review: Soft Inflation Persists, RBI Gets Breathing Room
May 23, 2025 10:31 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, its lowest since July 2019, led by falling food prices and broad-based disinflation. With CPI below target for a third month, the RBI is poised for more rate cuts amid slowing global growth.
BI Cuts Rates to Cushion Growth Slowdown as Inflation Stays Benign
May 23, 2025 10:23 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 5.50% in May, citing subdued inflation and stabilising currency conditions. With Q1 growth slowing to 4.87%, the central bank has shifted focus to supporting domestic momentum, signalling potential for further easing in the second half of 2025.
Turkiye Inflation Report: CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast at 24%
May 23, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 22, and kept its inflation forecast constant for 2025 at 24%. CBRT governor Karahan signalled to maintain a tight stance until a permanent decline in inflation is sustained and price stabili