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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 22
September 21, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
USD/JPY nudging up in the 157-158 band, while keeping ear out for the MoF during Japan holiday
Key focal point remains word on diplomatic efforts and US plan at UN meeting. Oil sitting at key $100~ Brent range threshold support prior
Outcome will be pivotal in setting this week's tone for risk, dollar
Europe Summary and Highlights 21 Sep
September 21, 2026 10:15 AM UTC
Japan on holiday, European morning quiet
USD/JPY sticks to the 157s after last week's swings, rate checking talk, and circumspect through Japan holiday
Oil eases further, eying UN for diplomatic efforts ; boosts sentiment with equities up 1%, and yields trimming
Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship
September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 8:56 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0
September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
· Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West. The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. Regional ag