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Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam.  This could still be fol

FX Weekly Strategy: June 30th - July 4th
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

US employment report the prime focus
Some risk of weaker numbers after higher claims figures from mid-May
General USD weakness remains hard to oppose
JPY could recover some ground on the crosses on weaker US data

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Under pressure, focus on 1.7720/00 support
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 6:36 AM UTC

Extending rejection from beneath the 1.8000 congestion as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

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No Deal Yet: India–US Trade Talks Stretch Beyond August Deadline
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 5:42 AM UTC

India and the US have made progress in negotiations for an interim trade deal, but key sticking points—particularly around agriculture and autos—remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 deadline for new US tariffs. President Trump’s tariff-first strategy has pushed India to seek partial relief,

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 Jul
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 5:23 AM UTC

Bessent threatens Japan with 25% tariff if Trump is unhappy

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 24th
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating test of 86.4600 resistance
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 5:00 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 86.4600 resistance as prices consolidate gains from the 85.1900, 3rd July low

AUD/USD flows: Bullock Less Dovish
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 4:21 AM UTC

RBA Bullock says Q2 core inflation may not have slowed as much as first expected 
and monthly job numbers pop up and down

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 3:14 AM UTC

Extending sharp drop from the 7.1910 high of last week to reach fresh year low

Chart USD/THB Update: Weighing on 32.14/32.08, 2024/2022 year lows
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 3:00 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to reach 32.14/32.08 support

USD/JPY flows: Bessent's remark kept JPY supported
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 2:59 AM UTC

Bessent threatens Japan with 25% tariff if Trump is unhappy

Chart USD/KRW Update: Under pressure, 1365.00/1360.00 support at risk
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 2:48 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend rejection from the 1395.00/1400.00, June/April 2024 highs

Chart USD/SGD Update: Focus return to 1.2700, current year low
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 1:51 AM UTC

Under pressure, as prices extend pullback from the 1.2882 high of last week to break the 1.2800/1.2763 support

Chart GBP/USD Update: Within reach of 1.3600/32 resistance
Freemium Article

July 24, 2025 1:35 AM UTC

Pressure remains firmly on the upside as prices extend gains from the 1.3370 support

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for retest of 1.1800/30
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

Break above the 1.1700 level see prices extending bounce from the 1.1600/1.1573 support

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited below 172.00, but room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 1:08 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 172.00 level as prices extend choppy trade below the 173.25, current year high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 146.55/146.00 support, lower later
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

Consolidating test of support at the 146.55/146.00 area

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 12:31 AM UTC

Break above the .6000 level further extend gains from the .5905 low to reach strong resistance at .6030/50 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Break to fresh year high
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 12:18 AM UTC

Break above the .6550 congestion see prices extending gains from the .6454 low of last week to reach fresh year high at the .6600 level

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 24th
Paying Article

July 23, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - In the lower end of the recent range
Paying Article

July 23, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June, whi

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited downside tests
Freemium Article

July 23, 2025 3:51 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.3600 has bounced from 1.3575

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 24th
Paying Article

July 23, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring year highs - daily studies improving
Paying Article

July 23, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 0.6600