View:
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
October 27, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.
Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
October 27, 2026 2:54 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
U.S. Septenber New Home Sales, October Consumer Confidence - Surprising resilience, notably on labor signal
October 27, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
September new home sales, down a marginal 0.6% to 676k, have held up better than expected, while October consumer confidence with a bounce to 91.7 from 84.3 is even more surprising, reaching its highest level since June.
U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of underlying momentum in Q3
October 27, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
September durable goods orders are in line with expectations, up by 1.8% overall and 0.5% ex transport. The ex transport trend remains positive but has lost some momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2.
U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of underlying momentum in Q3
October 27, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
September durable goods orders are in line with expectations, up by 1.8% overall and 0.5% ex transport. The ex transport trend remains positive but has lost some momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 27
October 27, 2026 10:04 AM UTC
Dollar starts the week with a lift into event risk, as US tech and US yields see some bounce
BRL very much its own step adjustment, but does further reinforce a wider EM carry turn
Interesting one to monitor and to keep tabs on what sits on the other side