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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
June 2, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April.
Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
June 2, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th
U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so
June 2, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing
EUR/CHF, CHF/JPY flows: SNB Schlegel reiterates increased readiness to intervene
June 2, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
While accepting that real appreciate is clearly less than nominal, SNB chairman Schlegel at an event in Bern reiterates again the Bank’s raised readiness to intervene to deal with overvaluation pressure due to the Middle East conflict.
This pits the CHF on the opposite side of the fence to the yen
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
June 2, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
June 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?
June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC
Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking. As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe