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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
FOMC - Policy may prove less hawkish than the dots, assuming slowing in data
June 17, 2026 8:08 PM UTC
The Fed dots show a clearly divided Fed with only a minority on the median rates view for 2026, for a 25bps hike, 2027, which sees a 25bps reversal, and 2027, which sees a further 25bps easing. There are several respondents on either side of the median but we believe the voters lean towards the dovi
USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference
June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC
Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely
USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar
June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC
Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
June 17, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.
U.S. May Pending Home Sales - Fourth straight gain from January's record low
June 17, 2026 2:19 PM UTC
Pending home sales have seen a 3.8% increase in May, well above expectations and a fourth straight rise, though still not fully reversing the declines of December and January that took the series to a record low.
U.S. May Retail Sales - Impressive resilience
June 17, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
May retail sales continue to show impressive resilience to downward pressure on real disposable income from rising gasoline prices, with equity strength and lower taxes offsetting to the headwinds, as well as recent resilience in employment, Overall sales rose by 0.9%, with gains of 0.8% ex auto and