View:
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained
October 26, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August
October 26, 2026 5:08 PM UTC
We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 26-30 October
October 26, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
*Central bank meeting flurry - BoC might disappoint, ECB eyed for tone change, RBNZ seen a cert
*UK Budget may have its critics, but not seen taking any chances
* JPY along with CHF regaining its safety credentials
*France remains a focus, Moody's offers some relief, if a sideshow to the bigger arc
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - antipodean shorts the standout
October 26, 2026 9:08 AM UTC
Overall total dollar long trim slightly in latest week, but remains very large
Both AUD and NZD shorts the standouts, at great extremes
Sterling shorts trim on recent recovery / uprating; broadly comparable positioning with euro though
JPY longs remain established, hold recent range, CHF shorts continu
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, 26-30 October
October 26, 2026 7:39 AM UTC
*Central bank meeting flurry - BoC might disappoint, ECB eyed for tone change, RBNZ seen a cert
*UK Budget may have its critics, but not seen taking any chances
* JPY along with CHF regaining its safety credentials
*France remains a focus, Moody's offers some relief, if a sideshow to the bigger arc