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CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 6
August 5, 2026 3:00 PM UTC
A familiar story of waiting for an unclear deal, amid a neede-ly backdrop; dollar still slanted long and heavy
An argument that gold and especially silver poised for a breakout from base
Payrolls Friday next other focal point, largely mid-to-low tier data Thursday
U.S. July ADP Employment - Slowest since January, but payrolls may outperform
August 5, 2026 12:34 PM UTC
July’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 44k is on the weak side of expectations, and even compared to the 60k implied by weekly ADP data in the preceding week, implying a further loss of momentum in the latest week. The gain is the slowest since January. We still however see risk o
Silver lining: a case for a precious metals retracement
August 5, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Looking at technicals, seasonals, positioning, recent and upcoming events, there's a case for gold and silver building off a base
Break higher off that base could allow a decent absolute retracement move ahead, even if long-term charts still headwind