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U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures
July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o