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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias
June 10, 2026 4:55 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, even ex food and en
Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone
June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC
While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a
USD/CAD flows: BoC looking through inflation, watching risks
June 10, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
Unchanged with outlook presented in conditional terms
Core stance though is to look through inflation while being more on guard against downside risks especially from US trade deal renewal
Latter remains the main near-term risk for the CAD
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
June 10, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April.
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
Europe Summary and Highlights 10 Jun
June 10, 2026 10:01 AM UTC
Oil still checked even with exchanges, hope pinned on nuclear detail progress
Risk markets still seeing some pressure, though Nasdaq remains off yesterday's spike low
Some NOK support from CPI, but Norges Bank ahead of the curve
FX market remains in cautious n/t consolidation, US CPI next focus
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?
June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p