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EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw
This week's five highlights
February 13, 2026 12:00 PM UTC
U.S. January Employment Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
This Week's Fed Speakers
BoC Minutes Show Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected
UK GDP Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
Landslide Victory for Japan LDP
Preview: Due March 13 - Canada February Employment - Employment and Labor force due for a rebound in Ontario
February 27, 2026 8:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 50k in February, more than fully reversing a 24.8k decline in January to keep trend modestly positive. However we expect an even stronger rebound in the labor force from a decline in January to lift the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.5%, while remaining
Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Weaker and not only on weather
February 27, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 6.0% to 1.32m to follow a 6.0% December increase while permits fall by 5.2% to 1.38m to follow a 4.8% December increase. Underlying slowing in demand and bad weather are both likely to contribute to the decline, with the latter impacting starts more than p
Preview: Due March 10 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Extending a sharp January decline
February 27, 2026 5:16 PM UTC
We expect February existing home sales to fall by 0.8% to extend a sharp 8.4% January decline, to a level of 3.88m, which would be the lowest since October 2010. This would follow a 0.8% decline in January pending home sales, which extended a sharp 7.4% December decline.
Preview: Due March 2 - U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - Correcting lower but still positive
February 27, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect February’s ISM manufacturing index to correct lower to 50.5 from January’s sharply improved 52.6, though this would still deliver a second straight positive reading to follow ten straight negatives.
Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals
February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%.
U.S. January PPI - Still strong at the start of 2026
February 27, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
January PPI has made a strong start to 2026, with a stronger than expected 0.5% increase overall and an even stronger 0.8% increase ex food and energy, both following December gains that were almost as strong. Ex food energy and trade the picture is less alarming, up 0.3% for a third straight month,