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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects
July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC
• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat
