View:
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
EM Money Supply: Trends Diverge from Policy Rates
September 16, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
· M2 growth in China remains weak (pre 2015 the trend had been double digit), despite the low level of nominal and real policy rates. This reflects credit demand and supply problems. M2 growth will likely remain restrained by Chinese standards and act as a drag of nominal and real GDP
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Slower but with yr/yr growth stable
October 14, 2026 3:03 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slower than two preceding quarters at 0.9% but leaving yr/yr growth stable at 3.4% for a third straight quarter.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 14, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 14, 2026 1:45 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?
October 14, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649
U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?
October 14, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649
Europe Summary and Highlights 14 Oct
October 14, 2026 10:08 AM UTC
EUR/GBP nudges lows, politics/fiscal sentiment still tipping back to the UK, even as BoE sceptical over tightening priced in
AUD/USD enjoys technical bounce from good support
Yields remain off highs, USD levels as market waits for US CPI prints
