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China/U.S. Trade Talks Into the Autumn
July 29, 2025 8:20 AM UTC
· Our baseline (Figure 1) remains that a U.S./China deal will be reached (most likely in Q4), but a moderate probability exists of no deal being done this year and China being stuck with 30% tariffs – the worst-case scenario of still higher tariffs is now less likely with Trump in a
ECB Review: Policy ‘On Hold’ Leaves Easing Door Open
July 24, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
Given the uncertainty overhanging policy makers worldwide, let alone in the EZ, the ECB was always likely to revert to stable policy after seven consecutive cuts which have taken the discount rate to its current 2%. In a much shortened statement, but which was more willing to highlight disinflatio
China: Echoes of Japan?
August 13, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
Overall, some of China’s private businesses and households are suffering from Japan’s style balance sheet recession. Combined with slowing productivity and a shrinking workforce, this points to slower trend growth in the coming years. However, fiscal stimulus and the clean-up of Loca
India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices
August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
August 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly individually against the greenback as USD chops on Trump/Powell fiasco. The biggest losers are TWD 0.36%, followed by IDR and PHP 0.06%; while the largest losers is KRW by 0.5%, SGD 0.27%, CNH 0.16%, CNY 0.1% and MYR 0.06%.
USD/CNH is trading lower at 7.1
U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July
August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC
Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.