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February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,

January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing

January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger

February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
• The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor. Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre