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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
August 27, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade - Widest post-tariff deficit, Initial and Continued Claims fall
August 27, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
July’s advance goods trade deficit of $118.8bn versus $101.4bn in June is the widest since the record $158.7bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. The deficit has picked up since the Supreme Court ruled against the reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. Initial claims remain low, fallin
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade - Widest post-tariff deficit, Initial and Continued Claims fall
August 27, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
July’s advance goods trade deficit of $118.8bn versus $101.4bn in June is the widest since the record $158.7bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. The deficit has picked up since the Supreme Court ruled against the reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. Initial claims remain low, fallin
ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep
August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio
Preview: Due August 28 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports
August 27, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 3.3% annualized, in line with what monthly data is implying, assuming the preliminary estimate for a 0.2% increase in June is accurate and gains of 0.3% in May and 0.6% in April are unrevised. This will mark a return to growth after two straight negative quar