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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 14 - Canada August CPI - Slightly firmer but with BoC core rates steady
September 11, 2026 6:27 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to edge higher to 3.1% yr/yr from 3.0%, extending the gain from June’s 2.8% but remaining below May’s 3.2%. We also expect a firmer ex food and energy pace at 2.1% from 1.9%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to remain at July’s pace.
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade
September 11, 2026 5:04 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1.
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF flows: Core CPI upside bolster Sep hike odds
September 11, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Core CPI upside supports Sep FOMC tightening call, and mkt odds rise to around 85%
FX reaction modest thus far, though CHF remains on the back foot as the increasing low inflation, low rates stand out
QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet
September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
· The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT. The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol