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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

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Congress Struggles Over Budget Bill
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

The House is struggling to reach consensus on the beautiful huge 10yr budget bill, as GOP budget hawks want to see multi trillion expenditure cuts, though eventually the 10yr expenditure cuts will likely compromise around USD 0.5-1.0trn.  Tax cuts are also unlikely to match President Trump campaign

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China/U.S. Trade War and next To Talks?
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 10:02 AM UTC

China’s targeted and measured counter tariffs against the U.S. are designed to push the U.S. towards the negotiating table on the wider issue of the U.S./China trade deficit.  Negotiating will likely start into the spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new ob

FX Weekly Strategy: February 3rd-7th
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

US employment report the main data focus
USD/JPY biased lower, EUR/USD more data dependent
CAD risks on the downside on tariff concerns
GBP has scope to weaken on BoE meeting

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Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected, sees balanced risks if a trade war can be avoided
Paying Article

January 29, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada eased by 25bps to 3.0% as expected, and confirmed the ending of Quantitative Tightening, as had been outlined by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on January 16. The BoC has delivered some fairly optimistic forecasts, but these are made assuming an absence of tariffs, given that the B

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.9400 - 0.9450 range

Chart USD/CHF Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 9:06 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 0.9000 has been pushed back from beneath further congestion around 0.9050

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 8:45 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion support at 0.8300

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade - background studies rising
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

Little change, as the pullback from resistance at 1.0500 extends consolidation above congestion support at 1.0450

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation - studies rising
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade 

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Extending pullback from 11.8250, January high
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

 Choppy trade leaning lower from the 21 January year high at 11.8250 to reach 11.6050 congestion

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UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks.  Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Corrective pullback from 193.04 high
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

Edged lower from the 193.04 high to consolidate strong bounce from the 187.05 February year low

GBP, SEK flows: GBP and SEK slightly firmer after data
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

UK employment data a little stronger than expected. Swedish CPI in line with consensus. Limited upside for both GBP and SEK

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Focus on the 1.6400/1.6385 support
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

Extending rejection from the 1.6633 high as corrective bounce gives way to renewed selling pressure

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Poised for retest of 1.1150/55 resistance
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

 Bounce from the 1.1070 support to regain the 1.1100 level see pressure returning to the 1.1140 high of last week

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2425 low
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:41 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.2425 low as prices consolidate losses from the 7.3270 resistance

USD/JPY flows: USD broadly higher
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:40 AM UTC

USD is trading broadly higher on Tuesday

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending corrective bounce from 86.4600 low
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:28 AM UTC

Break above the 86.9150 high see prices extending bounce from the 86.4600 low

RBA Review: It has begun
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 4:47 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th cut rates on by 25bps to 4.1% and suggest data dependency going forward

Chart USD/TWD Update: Extend corrective bounce from 32.620/600 support
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 4:20 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 32.620/600 support as prices consolidate sharp drop from the February YTD high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating test of 16200/16149 support
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 2:58 AM UTC

 No follow-through on break of the 16200 level as prices turned up to consolidate losses from the 16384 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating at 33.58 low
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 2:46 AM UTC

Turning higher from the 33.58 low as prices consolidate losses from the 34.25 bounce high

Chart USD/KRW Update: Higher in consolidation from 1440.00 support
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 2:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices consolidate test of the 1440.00 level

Chart USD/SGD Update: Bounce at the 1.3385, 38.2% Fibonacci level
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 2:22 AM UTC

Turning higher from test of the 1.3385, 38.2% Fibonacci level

Chart GBP/USD Update: Paused at 1.2635 high
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:56 AM UTC

Limited on break above the 1.2600/10 resistance as prices settled back from the 1.2635 high to unwind overbought intraday studies

AUD/USD flows: Front running RBA
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Market participants pricing in a RBA cut

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.0500/33 resistance
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:46 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the 1.0500 level as prices consolidate gains from the 1.0300 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:32 AM UTC

Extending losses from the 161.00 level and break of the 160.00 congestion opens up room for deeper pullback to the 158.00 congestion

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating above 151.00
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 12:45 AM UTC

 Just shy of the 151.00 level as prices consolidate steep drop from the 154.80 high of last week

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5750 resistance
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 12:30 AM UTC

Settled back from fresh high at .5750 minor resistance as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6374 high
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 12:17 AM UTC

Reached fresh high at .6374 before settling back in consolidation as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Chart USD/BRL Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 5:18 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 1.4175

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

Chart AUD/USD Update: Resistance at 0.6385/00
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break higher

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion resistance at 160.00 has given way to renewed selling interest

Chart USD/JPY Update: Focus on the 151.00 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Prices continue to track lower in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Reached the 106.65 Fibonacci retracement - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

The test of strong support at the 106.55 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to consolidation

Chart USD/RUB Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support within 90.0000 - 90.0800 is giving way to a bounce from 89.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending cautious trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 4.1800 is giving way to a fresh consolidation beneath here

Psychology for major markets February 17th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

USD generally soft as risk sentiment remains positive while strong Japanese data pulls USD/JPY lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 February
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw generally little FX action, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD all little changed on the morning, reversing a small USD rally seen in the middle of the session.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating test of strong support - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support at the 18.2960 current year low of 24 January is giving way to expected consolidation

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Studies continue to improve
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Little change, as pries extend cautious trade beneath strong resistance at 1.4900

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Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

·       President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.