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U.S. June NFIB survey - Bounce may be dated, prices strong
Paying Article

July 14, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

June’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since February at 97.4 from 95.3, a reading that was the lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
Paying Article

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 26th
Paying Article

June 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance 
Tokyo CPI TO Stay Low
USD/JPY Extend consolidation beneath 161.95 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The opening gap below 1.3200 has given way to a bounce

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Yields to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 15-year high at 3.200%

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 4:22 PM UTC

June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 4:21 PM UTC

June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 17
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Slate of U.S. Data
DXY Leaning lower in consolidation
Would Not be As Important As Middle East

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.

U.S. June Pending Home Sales and July NAHB Homebuilders' Index both weaker
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

The latest data suggests some weakness in the housing sector as rising inflation worries put upward pressure on mortgage rates, with slippage in June pending home sales and July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index.

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. July S&P PMIs - Manufacturing strong, marginal improvement in services
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

We expect gains in July’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 55.5 from 53.9, with a more moderate increase in services to 51.5 from 51.2.

U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 1:11 PM UTC

The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k are t

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U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k are t

USD Flows: Firm US data, albeit geopolitics ebb and flows playing to the swings
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Solid set of US data, if clearly very sensitive to the inputs from geopolitics month to month

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Two straight subdued months after a strong April
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 12:00 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged June industrial production outcome with a marginal 0.1% increase in manufacturing. This will be a second straight subdued month but still leaving a healthy Q2 given a strong increase in April.

Europe Summary and Highlights 16 Jul
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 10:08 AM UTC

USD and GBP settle after yesterday's late moves
UK GDP 0.1%m/m as expected, Breeden quite dovish 

Psychology for major markets July 16
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 9:21 AM UTC

No improvment in the Middle East

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Kazakhstan Country Risk Rating
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Kazakhstan remains at a medium-high rating.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 16
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 8:56 AM UTC

Approaching Japan holiday, so (idle?) speculation might kick in again
Dollar was over-owned, leaks out when headlines quiet

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 7:33 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside following rejection from the .8150 current year high to reach strong support at .8040

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating at .8465/50 support
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 6:52 AM UTC

Break of the .8508/00 area has seen sharp losses to reach support at the .8465/50, Fibonacci and congestion area

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: GDP as expected; sterling remains lively on the squeeze
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 6:49 AM UTC

UK GDP broadly as expected at 0.1%m/m
Sterling steadies o/b intraday after yesterday's further late squeeze

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China Jun Activity Data Review: A Diverged Economy
Paying Article

July 16, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

China’s June activity data displayed divergence of statistics, as AI and related infrastructure boost industrial production. Urban Fixed Asset Investment was still depressed, due to on-going failure of mainland developers, retail sales still remained modest , weighed down by the wealth effect from

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