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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Maintaining a healthy trend
September 4, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in August industrial production with a 0.4% increase in manufacturing, the latter up from a 0.2% increase in July though for manufacturing ex autos we expect a second straight rise of 0.4%. This would maintain a healthy trend, supported by AI investment.
Canada August Employment - Fall corrective, but tariff risks ahead
September 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 41.7k decline is much weaker than expected though the fall can be seen as corrective from three straight healthy gains. The unemployment rate was stable at 6.4% though the average hourly wage of permanent employees at 2.0% was a significant slowing from 3.0