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Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam.  This could still be fol

FX Weekly Strategy: June 30th - July 4th
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

US employment report the prime focus
Some risk of weaker numbers after higher claims figures from mid-May
General USD weakness remains hard to oppose
JPY could recover some ground on the crosses on weaker US data

FX Weekly Strategy:Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

Geopolitics Remain in the Spotlight
Slate of U.S. Data will otherwise dictate sentiment
And Likely See Choppy DXY
Followed By Canada CPI and GDP

Chartbook: U.S. Chart S&P 500: Extending gains within a 5-year bull channel
Paying Article

June 17, 2025 6:21 AM UTC

Met with selling pressure from the February all-time high at 6147 with prices falling sharply before stabilizing in early-Q2 at 4835 low

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U.S. May CPI - Little tariff pass-through, with inflationary pressures elsewhere fading
Paying Article

June 11, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

May CPI has surprised significantly to the downside, up only 0.1% both headline and core, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.08% and 0.13%. The data is subdued across the board, with commodities ex food and energy unchanged despite tariffs and services ex energy on the low side of tre

Chart USD/MYR Update: Turned up in consolidation from 4.1800, current year low
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 4:23 AM UTC

 Turned up from fresh year low at 4.1800 as prices consolidate losses from the 4.2920 high of last week 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 3rd
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 3:35 AM UTC

USD could suffer on weaker US employment report
USD/JPY likely to respond most to lower US yields
GBP struggling as UK fiscal policy continues to disappoint

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating at 16200
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 2:44 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 16200 level as prices turned up in consolidation above the 16159, May low

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure, 32.33/32.31 lows at risk
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 2:27 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 32.33/32.31 lows has met with selling pressure at the 32.60/32.65 resistance

Chart USD/KRW Update: Range-bound in consolidation above 1348.00 low
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Range-bound above the 1348.00 low as prices consolidate losses from the 1390.00 high of last week

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating above 1.2700 low
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 2:09 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the 1.2700 low to consolidate losses from the high of last week

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room to extend corrective pullback
Freemium Article

July 3, 2025 1:45 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.3788 current year high has given way to sharp pullback to the 1.3632/1.3600 support

USD/JPY flows: Little Sign of a U.S. Japan trade deal
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 1:27 AM UTC

Trade deal optimism boost the market

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.1800, room for higher
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 1:26 AM UTC

Settled back from the 1.1830 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.1150/45 support and low of last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating below 169.85 high, scope for pullback
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 1:10 AM UTC

Extending consolidation below the 170.00 level with choppy trade tracing out a small wedge pattern and threatening pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 12:59 AM UTC

Edged up from test of the 144.00/143.75 support as prices consolidate losses from the 148.00 high of last week

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating below .6120 current year high
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 12:32 AM UTC

Settled back from fresh high at .6120 as prices consolidate strong gains from the .5882 low of last week

Chart AUD/USD Update: Poised just below .6590 YTD high
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 12:19 AM UTC

Pressure remains firmly on the upside following bounce from the .6550 and prices poised just below the .6590 current year high

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 3rd
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

USD could suffer on weaker US employment report
USD/JPY likely to respond most to lower US yields
GBP struggling as UK fiscal policy continues to disappoint

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Puts focus on unemployment
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 8:10 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin remains in no rush to ease though policy will depend on incoming data.

North American Summary and Highlights 2 Jul
Freemium Article

July 2, 2025 8:05 PM UTC

Overview - Fiscal worries saw the GBP particularly weak. Elsewhere the USD reversed European gains in North America. 

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Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal

Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 6:41 PM UTC

We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.

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Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Mostly subdued
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 3rd
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

USD could suffer on weaker US employment report
USD/JPY likely to respond most to lower US yields
GBP struggling as UK fiscal policy continues to disappoint