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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
Europe Summary and Highlights 21 Sep
September 21, 2026 10:15 AM UTC
Japan on holiday, European morning quiet
USD/JPY sticks to the 157s after last week's swings, rate checking talk, and circumspect through Japan holiday
Oil eases further, eying UN for diplomatic efforts ; boosts sentiment with equities up 1%, and yields trimming
Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship
September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 8:56 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0
September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
· Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West. The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. Regional ag
Chartbook: Chart USD/JPY: Corrective bounce expected to give way to renewed selling pressure
September 21, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Saw sharp losses from the 164.00 July high to correct between 38.2-50% of the rally from 140.00, April 2025 year low.
Rebound from the 153.00 low see prices retracing the two-legged losses to reach towards resistance at 158.00/158.45, congestion and 50% Fibonacci level, which is expected to cap. Br
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - jump in yen longs squeezed last week
September 21, 2026 7:13 AM UTC
Jump in yen longs, pulled dollar net closer to balance overall into big central bank meetings, setting up shif out
Mkt gets caught JPY long into the local USD/JPY lows and squeezed
NZD still long, has already illustrated contrary indicator selloff qualities
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: oil hoping on UN progress despite noise; France budget worries pressure
September 21, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, keeping overnight activity thin
Oil easing, hoping of diplomatic efforts at UN diplomacy
Background focus on French bond pressure on deficit/debt concerns
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 6:17 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal