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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?
June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3. With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra
DM and EM FX Outlook: Cross-Currents for H2 and 2027
June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ
DM ex U.S. EZ Outlook (Japan and Western Europe): Navigating the Post Iran War Period?
June 23, 2026 7:43 AM UTC
· We have revised 2026 Japan GDP only slightly lower to 0.8% as wage growth is solidly above 3%, which will support consumption for the rest of 2026/27. The extension of energy stimulus will cap headline inflation for Q2/Q3 2026. For the BOJ, despite hawkish forward guidance, the 1% r