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Iran: What Length For War?
March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC
· If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism. If the war is more prolonged (ie months) then oil/gas supplies could be sque
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
February 26, 2026 3:22 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
US Q4 Current Account - Deficit fall assisted by bounce in investment surplus
March 25, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
The Q4 current account deficit of $190.7bn is significantly lower than expected, down from $239.1bn in Q3, and the lowest since Q1 2021. The correction from Q1’s record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn continues.