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U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF flows: Core CPI upside bolster Sep hike odds
September 11, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Core CPI upside supports Sep FOMC tightening call, and mkt odds rise to around 85%
FX reaction modest thus far, though CHF remains on the back foot as the increasing low inflation, low rates stand out
QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet
September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
· The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT. The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 11
September 11, 2026 9:01 AM UTC
EUR/USD dips back to anchor out of ECB meeting, though money market rate bets firm up
Focus turns to US CPI, where we see upside risks to core
Could see another intraday reaction for the dollar to keep recent chop going
UK GDP upside keeps EUR/GBP capping and range top fading in place for now
UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead
September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC
Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa