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FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Maintaining a healthy trend
September 4, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in August industrial production with a 0.4% increase in manufacturing, the latter up from a 0.2% increase in July though for manufacturing ex autos we expect a second straight rise of 0.4%. This would maintain a healthy trend, supported by AI investment.
Canada August Employment - Fall corrective, but tariff risks ahead
September 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 41.7k decline is much weaker than expected though the fall can be seen as corrective from three straight healthy gains. The unemployment rate was stable at 6.4% though the average hourly wage of permanent employees at 2.0% was a significant slowing from 3.0
U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
September 4, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct
U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Good upside on payrolls, though earnings steady. CPI more critical
September 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC
Good upside on the payrolls data, at least outside of earnings, suggests momentum stays solid
Fed will probably stick to view that labor market healthy, firm and generally balanced, especially with earnings not accelerating
That leaves inflation data as the key policy data factor