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BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
July 23, 2026 4:19 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
September 25bps ECB Hike: 50% Probability?
July 23, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
· Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,
ECB: September Hike 50% Probability?
July 23, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
· Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,