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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi
Congress Struggles Over Budget Bill
February 5, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
The House is struggling to reach consensus on the beautiful huge 10yr budget bill, as GOP budget hawks want to see multi trillion expenditure cuts, though eventually the 10yr expenditure cuts will likely compromise around USD 0.5-1.0trn. Tax cuts are also unlikely to match President Trump campaign
China/U.S. Trade War and next To Talks?
February 4, 2025 10:02 AM UTC
China’s targeted and measured counter tariffs against the U.S. are designed to push the U.S. towards the negotiating table on the wider issue of the U.S./China trade deficit. Negotiating will likely start into the spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new ob
Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected, sees balanced risks if a trade war can be avoided
January 29, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased by 25bps to 3.0% as expected, and confirmed the ending of Quantitative Tightening, as had been outlined by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on January 16. The BoC has delivered some fairly optimistic forecasts, but these are made assuming an absence of tariffs, given that the B
U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli
U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.
Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
February 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback treads lower along with U.S. Treasury Yields. The only loser is TWD by 0.12%; the biggest winners are SGD 0.7%, CNH 0.68%, CNY 0.5%, KRW 0.44%, INR 0.33%, MYR 0.31%, PHP 0.28%, THB 0.1% and THB by 0.01%.
USD/CNH is tr
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025