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China/Japan: The Australia Playbook or Grey Warfare
December 4, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
China will likely escalate pressure on Japan to back down over it less pacifist stance on self-defense, as it wants to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S. One option is to repeat the 2020 copybook when China banned coal imports from Australia for 3 years. A 2nd alternative is grey warfare a
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?
December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11. It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1). But this will be enough to just