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Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Models would suggest that the current and prospective direct tariff impact should slow GDP growth to a 1.5% pace, which should see slow Fed easing in 2025 given the boost to inflation. However, the policy uncertainty means that business and consumer behaviour could see a large adverse hit that keeps

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Trump Latest Thinking
Paying Article

March 5, 2025 11:07 AM UTC

Bottom line: President Donald Trump signaled that he is committed to tariffs to raise revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade relations.  This three part approach will likely shape implementation of further product and reciprocal tariffs from April.  However, reports sugges

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U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC

While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,

North American Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 7:13 PM UTC

Overview - A generally quiet day saw the USD make some gains after Trump suggested there would be flexibility on tariffs. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Weekly Strategy: March 24th-28th
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 4:05 PM UTC

JPY still has potential for gains unless market sentiment improves
EUR may get some support from PMIs
US PMI, trade and confidence data has potential for more impact than usual
GBP may be vulnerable to CPI and fiscal update
AUD tone has weakened but big picture still looks positive

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As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:41 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion resistance at 0.6300 is giving way to the anticipated drift lower

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

The retest of congestion resistance at 162.00 has been rejected

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test back above 149.00 has been pushed back sharply from beneath congestion resistance at 150.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced at 104.00 - studies improving
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance at 104.00

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

Chartbook: Chart EUR/USD: Approaching critical resistance within the 1.1000 - 1.1275 range
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support at the 1.0200 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a steady bounce

Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC

Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Further consolidation - potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 11:28 AM UTC

Still little change

Psychology for major markets March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

USD firm as risk appetite softens

Europe Summary and Highlights 21 March
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw gains for the JPY, CHF and scandis, but little movement elsewhere.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.5500

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged
A Placeholder Meeting for BoJ
BoE Being Careful Amid Data Conflicts
Everything Unchanged for Riksbank 
SNB 25 bp Cut Likely To Last

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:47 AM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Focus remains on 0.9600
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around 0.9575

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.8800 has reached 0.8836

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating losses
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:08 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 0.8350

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Trump Product and Reciprocal Tariffs
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news.  Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment.  Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s

Chart EUR/USD Update: Potential for a test below 1.0800
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

The pullback from beneath strong resistance at the 1.0970 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to consolidation above support at 1.0800

Chart GBP/USD Update: Drifting lower
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as selling interest from resistance at the 1.3000 break level keeps near-term sentiment under pressure

USD, JPY flows: Softer JPY overnight hard to justify
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:36 AM UTC

JPY weakened overnight despite lower equities and stronger Japanese inflation

Chartbook: Chart AUD/USD: Room to extend bounce from .6100, Fibonacci level
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Break of the 2022 year low at .6170 in early January has seen losses reaching fresh low at .6100, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:16 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the 192.00 level as prices consolidate losses from the 194.75 resistance

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

Turned up from the 93.15 low to consolidate sharp losses from the 95.50/96.00 resistance

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2155 low
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 5:35 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 7.2175/55 lows has given way to bounce as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Under pressure, but stretched
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend steep drop from the 87.3850 high of last week to approach the 86.1650 support

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 5:14 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment soft
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

Trump tweet again for the Fed to lower rates

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 3:57 AM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Poised for retest of 16590, February YTD high
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:52 AM UTC

Break above the 16470/16474 resistance has seen extension to reach 16535 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending bounce from 33.55/50 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:37 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 33.55/33.50 support has given way to bounce as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Just shy of 1472.00 resistance
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:23 AM UTC

Break above the 1460.00/1464.00 resistance further extending gains from the 1440.00 support to approach the February high at 1472.00

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in consolidation from 1.3300 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:13 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.3300 level has given way to bounce to retest the 1.3375 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower in consolidation
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

Limited on probes above the 1.3000 level with fading momentum suggesting scope for pullback to correct rally from the 1.2560, 28 February low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room to extend corrective pullback
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:40 AM UTC

 Consolidation below the 1.0950 resistance has given way to pullback to the 1.0822/00 support

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp pullback, room for lower later
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:26 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 161.00 congestion and bounce from the 160.73 low see prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 148.55/00 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:14 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 148.55/148.00 support following rejection from 150.00

USD/JPY flows: Headline CPI Stays Elevated
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:10 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating sharp pullback
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:44 AM UTC

Bounce from the .5722 low see prices consolidating sharp pullback through the .5773 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extend pullback from .6390 high
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:23 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the .6300 level but pressure remains on the downside following pullback from the .6390 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market remains choppy after round of European central banks decision. The biggest winners are IDR by 0.3%, followed by MYR 0.24%, PHP 0.13%, TWD 0.1% and INR 0.09%; while the largest losers are SGD 0.31%, CNH & KRW 0.29%,

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 21st
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

North American Summary and Highlights 20 March
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally stronger in Europe but stabilized in North America. 

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy to be less forward looking
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem sees the Canadian economy as facing new uncertainty just after a soft landing had been achieved.