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EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
Iran: What Length For War?
March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC
· If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism. If the war is more prolonged (ie months) then oil/gas supplies could be sque
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw
This week's five highlights
February 13, 2026 12:00 PM UTC
U.S. January Employment Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
This Week's Fed Speakers
BoC Minutes Show Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected
UK GDP Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
Landslide Victory for Japan LDP
Turkish Economy Grew by 3.6% y/y in 2025
March 2, 2026 9:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth for 2025 on March 2. Turkish economy expanded by 3.6% y/y in 2025 (3.4% y/y in Q4), underpinned by domestic demand while the main drag came from net trade as annual exports of goods and services declined
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
March 2, 2026 3:54 PM UTC
We expect January durable goods orders to see a second straight moderate decline, of 0.6%, as a November surge in aircraft orders continues to correct, but ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - January surge largely sustained, prices bounce
March 2, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
February’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.4 is only marginally down from January’s 54.6 which was the highest August 2022. We now have two straight clearly positive numbers to follow two straight negatives, a sign that manufacturing activity is picking up in early 2026.