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FX Weekly Strategy: December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

FX Weekly Strategy: November 25th-29th
Paying Article

November 22, 2024 4:08 PM UTC

CAD may benefit from position squaring in holiday shortened week
USD remains generally well supported by data and geopolitics
EUR looks vulnerable after weak PMIs
JPY preferred to CHF as a safe haven

USD/JPY flows: Subtle hint
Paying Article

November 18, 2024 1:48 AM UTC

Bank Japan Gov Ueda says driver of Japan's inflation shifting towards rise in domestic wages.

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U.S. Economic Outlook under Trump
Freemium Article

November 11, 2024 7:23 PM UTC

Uncertainty over how the U.S. election results will impact the economic outlook remains very high, but the evidence at present suggests that incoming President Donald Trump, assuming Republican control of the House is confirmed, will attempt to implement a substantial part of his campaign promises.

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China Yuan10trn Package: Shifting Debt Not Stimulus
Freemium Article

November 11, 2024 10:06 AM UTC

Details of the Yuan10trn fiscal package show that it is all directed at a debt swap for LGFV’s and repackaging hidden local government debt.  This will have little net fiscal stimulus.  True fiscal stimulus will be seen for 2025 GDP growth, but it could be delayed until further details are seen

FX Weekly Strategy: November 11th-15th
Paying Article

November 8, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

Market unlikely to move sharply without more detail of Trump plans
USD still likely to remain well supported
GBP strength to be sustained unless labour market data is weak
Little reason for a significant EUR recovery
JPY could benefit further if we see solid Japanese Q3 GDP data

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating below 6.1150, all-time high
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 8:06 AM UTC

Edged lower from the 6.1150 all-time high as prices consolidate break of the 5.9900, May 2020 high

EUR, AUD flows: EUR upside limited but scope for AUD recovery
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 7:53 AM UTC

USD slips at the open. EUR upside limited given French concerns, but AUD looks undervalued

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating at 188.65 support, lower later
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

Break of the 190.00 level and 50% Fibonacci retracement has seen extension to reach support at the 188.65, 2023 year high

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extend consolidation below the .9330 congestion
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 7:02 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the .9330 congestion

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating above .8267/.8259 lows
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

Little change, as prices holds steady above the .8267/.8259 lows

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RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains from 105.62 low
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 105.62 low of Friday to reach strong resistance at 106.50, April high

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Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024. 

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Room to extend gains
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 5:35 AM UTC

Rebound from the 15840 low see pressure returning to the upside for retest of the 15952 high

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

Gapped higher at the open see prices extending sharp gains from the 84.2200 low of last week 

Asia Summary and Highlights 3 December
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 5:08 AM UTC

USD/JPY retest 150

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 4:57 AM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

AUD/USD flows: Positive sentiment
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 4:30 AM UTC

The broad risk sentiment is positive on Tuesday's Asia session

Chart USD/KRW Update: Focus return to 1408.00/1411.00 highs
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 3:45 AM UTC

Break above 1400.00 level return focus to the upside and sets up scope for retest of resistance at 1408.00 then the 1411.00, November YTD high

Chart USD/CNH Update: Retest 7.3110, July YTD high
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

Further extend the bullish break of the 7.2730 high of last week to retest the 7.3110, 3 July YTD high

USD/JPY flows: Retesting 150 figure
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 2:10 AM UTC

USD/JPY closed below 150 on Monday and is retesting it on Tuesday's Asia session

Chart USD/SGD Update: Poised for retest of the 1.3500/12 highs
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 2:10 AM UTC

Sharp bounce from the 1.3362 support through the 1.3400 level has seen extension to retest the 1.3488 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, 1.2615/00 support at risk
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 1:51 AM UTC

Sharp pullback from the 1.2750 high see prices unwinding overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Sharp pullback from the 1.0600/10 resistance
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 1:32 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.0600/10 resistance has given way to sharp pullback to retrace gains from the 1.0331, November low

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating test of August trendline
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 12:57 AM UTC

Break of strong support at the 158.10/00 congestion has seen sharp push lower to reach the trendline from the August low at 156.38

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 149.10/00 congestion, room for lower later
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Further extend losses last week to reach the 149.10/00 congestion area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating retest of .6440/34 lows
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 12:22 AM UTC

No follow-through on retest the .6440/34 low as prices extend choppy trade within a 3-week range area

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

U.S. Fed's Williams - Appropriate to move rates to neutral over time
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 9:41 PM UTC

While non-committal on timing, Fed's Williams' tone is similar to those of Waller and Bostic earlier today.

North American Summary and Highlights 2 December
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed, lifted by ISM manufacturing data but later hit by comments from Fed’s Waller. 

U.S. Fed's Waller - Leaning towards a December rate cut
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:28 PM UTC

Fed's Waller's latest remarks suggest that surprisingly strong forthcoming data will be needed to prevent a December easing.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Options open but not hawkish
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 5:41 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is keeping his policy options open with key data approaching but his tone is not hawkish.

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France: The Beleaguered Consumer Hit Further by Fiscal Impasse
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 5:07 PM UTC

As France’s political deadlock intensifies amid a likely toppling of the fledgling government, markets are worried about the fiscal fall-out of what may at best be emergency legislation, a so-called Special Law that would keep the country running, but with funding approved month by month.  To som

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.

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Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin

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Eurozone: What Services Inflation?
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

While real economy considerations seem to have taken over as the policy focus for the ECB majority, there are still some mutterings about apparent resilient services inflation. The latter is certainly the case when such inflation is measured on the conventional but possibly untimely y/y basis.  How

Psychology for major markets December 2nd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

EUR/USD testing the lows on French political uncertainty

Europe Summary and Highlights 2 December
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw some modest EUR losses, but otherwise little net FX movement.

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Top Trump Tariff Threats
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

Internal dynamics within BRICS argues against a BRICS currency due to divergent economies and structures, though BRICS could one day look to have a payment system.  Nevertheless, the threat of tariffs on BRICS if they form a new currency will also likely help the USD against EM currencies in H1 202

FX Weekly Strategy: December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Nov 26th
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:47 AM UTC

Net short CAD position still then main standout

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3980 support, room for lower later
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.4000 level as prices consolidate test of the 1.3980 support

EUR, JPY, GBP flows: JPY and GBP firm, EUR soft
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

JPY strength continues, GBP gaining ground against the EUR

Chart USD/CHF Update: Turned up in consolidation from the .8800 level
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Turned up from the .8800 level as prices consolidate losses from the .8958 high

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Taiwan Country Risk
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

We provide country risk review for Taiwan.  

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating at the .9300 congestion
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at the .9300 congestion

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 6:39 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the .8300 level return focus to the .8267 and .8259 lows