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FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 22
October 21, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
Positioning and oversold conditions obstructing euro follow through traction; downside focus switching to options protection
AUD lifted by short-covering and momentum swing towards a Nov hike pricing
Focus remains news driven rather than calendar-centric
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
Preview: Due November 6 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Subdued report to hint at Q4 slowing
November 5, 2026 4:01 PM UTC
We expect October’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k and by 45k in the private sector, in line with recent trend. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.2%, sustaining September’s increase after two months at 4.1%. We expect a modest 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a fall in the workweek
Preview: Due November 6 - Canada October Employment - Correction from public sector-led loss
November 5, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in a correction from two straight sharp declines, though the rise should be seen as corrective with the economy likely to lose some momentum in Q4 due to fresh US tariffs. We expect unemployment to remain at September’s 6.5% rate, up from 6.4% in Ju
U.S. Initial Claims very low, Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs strong
November 5, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
Initial claims at 189k from 195kare back at the July 18 low. Continued claims did correct higher by 23k 1.718m after a preceding 27k decline but the net message is still for a very tight labor market. The latest data were however surveyed after October’s non-farm payroll was.
Bank of England Hikes by 25bp - Another Hike in the Pipeline
November 5, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
The Bank lifted rates to 4% as expected and all members voted to hike even the arch doves. Of the 9 members, 8 members opted for 25bp while Mann wanted a 50bp increase. The Bank is touting a further hike even if Governor Bailey noted that it is not on a “pre-set path” though the longer the confl
Bank of England Hikes by 25bp - Another Hike in the Pipeline
November 5, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
The Bank lifted rates to 4% as expected and all members voted to hike even the arch doves. Of the 9 members, 8 members opted for 25bp while Mann wanted a 50bp increase. The Bank is touting a further hike even if Governor Bailey noted that it is not on a “pre-set path” though the longer the confl
EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows - sharper pivot from BoE, now more on board likely follow up
November 5, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
BoE headlines somewhat more hawkish than previously signalled, or at least more of a pivot towards accepting likely follow up given the headline inflation overshoot
Provisos over premia, not expecting an inevitably long sequence, but also more resigned to some further adjustment, as growth has also h
