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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold
CHF/JPY and the carry question
July 30, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
· CHF/JPY has become interesting from several directions: extreme relative valuation, changing carry rankings, opposing official preferences over currency direction, and the beginnings of a possible technical rollover. When things align, they can encourage some migration in positioning
Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?
July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC
· US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 25
August 24, 2026 3:27 PM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e
Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft
August 24, 2026 3:23 PM UTC
We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute
August 24, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
The immediate economic impact of the collapse of the US-Canada trade talks is likely to be modest, but not insignificant in the case of Canada. Where things move from here is uncertain, with Canadian retaliation due to be implemented on September 8, and risk of further mutual escalations after tha