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Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold
September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 14-18
September 11, 2026 5:21 PM UTC
A week of 2 key central bank meetings..
We expect a 25bp Fed hike but perhaps a "dovish hike". Could temper dollar given a lot priced in further out
BoJ also seen going 25bp. A heavy USD/JPY needs validation on shift to quarterly pace however to extend - else to re-test persistence of supply
CHF still
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk
September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater. Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:41 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view
October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t
DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads
October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC
· The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium. However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move. Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti