View:
Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam. This could still be fol
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy
June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC
· Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V
No Deal Yet: India–US Trade Talks Stretch Beyond August Deadline
July 24, 2025 5:42 AM UTC
India and the US have made progress in negotiations for an interim trade deal, but key sticking points—particularly around agriculture and autos—remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 deadline for new US tariffs. President Trump’s tariff-first strategy has pushed India to seek partial relief,
Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - In the lower end of the recent range
July 23, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June, whi