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Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?
May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9. Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden
U.S. May CPI - Little tariff pass-through, with inflationary pressures elsewhere fading
June 11, 2025 12:59 PM UTC
May CPI has surprised significantly to the downside, up only 0.1% both headline and core, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.08% and 0.13%. The data is subdued across the board, with commodities ex food and energy unchanged despite tariffs and services ex energy on the low side of tre
FX Weekly Strategy: June 2nd-6th
May 30, 2025 3:02 PM UTC
Tariff issues still the main focus
EUR may suffer from any new US tariff measures
ECB rate cut and lower inflation forecast may also be EUR negative
CAD to gain modest support from BoC
JPY can gain in risk negative secanrio but should in any case be well supported
China Outlook: Reasonable but Unbalanced Growth Trade
June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC
• China GDP growth remains reasonable though unbalanced. Net exports will take a hit from the trade freeze in April/May, with the impact likely to ease in H2 with the trade truce. We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tari