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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
Freemium Article

May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC

 A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a

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BoJ Review: One Percent
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

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U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

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ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

North American Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was supported by comments from Fed’s Waller and higher Michigan CSI inflation expectations but ended little changed. 

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE avoids hawkish surprise, cross drifting up off range floor
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC

BoE delivers the expected 7-2 vote for unchanged
Small lift for EUR/GBP on confirmation and lack of hawkish surprise
Overall, recent action remains largely technical driven with the recent measured range bounce

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BOE: Gang of 6 and Steady 2026 Rates
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC

 Though Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in calling for a one off 25bps risk management hike, 6 MPC members feel that disinflation is showing through and a soft economy and labor market warrants waiting to see energy prices and potential 2nd round effects. This gang of 6 also feels that markets have ti

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Reversal in EUR- and CAD-driven trade
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 11:07 AM UTC

The anticipated break above strong resistance at the 1.6250~ monthly high of 14 April has not been seen

Europe Summary and Highlights 18 Jun
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 10:59 AM UTC

After some consolidation overnight, dollar back to bid after the FOMC breaks
SNB as expected; Norges a little hawkish but NOK focus on USD and on Iran-trade unwinds
UK looks to BoE and by-election

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 18th
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 10:43 AM UTC

FOMC lives up to the hype, dollar breaks higher
Otherwise focus turns to the UK, with data, BoE and by-election. 
SNB as expected, Norges Bank a little hawkish but NOK focus elsewhere

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Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Sharp bounce back into range
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 10:12 AM UTC

The test of congestion support at 0.9180 has given way to a sharp bounce

Psychology for major markets June 18
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 9:28 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran MOU Official Signed

Chart USD/CHF Update: Sharp reversal higher
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Selling interest has given way to a sharp reversal higher

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Norges Bank Review (Jun 18): Higher Rates Then Down?
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

The June Norges bank statement had a hawkish bias with a higher policy rate profile than in March MPR (Figure 1) and concerns voiced again over persistent domestic inflation pressures.  The Norges bank appear ready to move in September or November.  However, the Iran/U.S. deal impact on energy pri

EUR/NOK flows: Norges Bank sticks to script, but NOK focused more on Iran/oil
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

Norges sticks to script on upside inflation risks and likely need for a further hike
Yet it also acknowledges Iran deal and that energy drop could weaken pressures
Overall EUR/NOK still correcting 2026 downtrend on Iran/ ToT trade unwind/profit-taking 

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Sharp run higher to current year highs
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 99.50 has given way to a sharp break higher

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Pressuring range highs - studies rising
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Cautious trade continues, with prices pressuring congestion resistance at 0.8660

Chartbook: Chart USD/CNH: Remains under pressure
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 7:58 AM UTC

Consolidation above support at the 6.8500 congestion gave way to renewed selling pressure at the start of Q2

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SNB: Holding Steady on Rates
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 7:54 AM UTC

The June quarterly assessment saw little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation (Figure 1), with the tone of the economic outlook remained guarded due to concerns over the Iran war on the global economy (forecasts though look to have been completed before the U.S. Iran deal).   With

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

Sharp selling interest has tested below congestion support at 1.1500

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 18, 2026 7:34 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have proven swifter than expected

GBP/USD flows: Labour mkt data steadier, focus on BoE, FOMC digesting
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Labour market data better than last month at least
Focus on BoE with wait-and-see expected 
Slight backfilling and consolidation from the FOMC dollar move

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Backed off the 215.50 resistance
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Retest of the 215.50 resistance has given way to sharp pullback below the 214.00 congestion towards the 213.00 support

Chartbook: U.S. Chart S&P 500: Potential for further gains
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

Break above the 7000 level at the start of Q2 has seen gains to fresh all-time high at 7620

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