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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

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Trump 2.0: Markets Guessing Policy Priorities

July 18, 2024 9:10 AM UTC

 If Trump is elected president we still feel that the top priorities for implementation will likely be reducing immigration and making permanent tax cuts that are due to lapse in 2025. Trump would likely jawbone on all issues, but actual policy changes are more important for persistent moves in mar

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Brazil and Mexico: Supply and Demand Factors Affecting Inflation
Freemium Article

July 17, 2024 6:52 PM UTC

We decomposed inflation in Brazil and Mexico using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, focusing on Imported Inflation, Demand, Supply, and Monetary Policy. Our analysis from 2003 to 2024 for Brazil and 2005 to 2024 for Mexico shows Brazil's inflation was primarily driven by supply and imported infl

FX Weekly Strategy: July 15th-19th
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

JPY the main focus after sharp gains Thursday and Friday
Key levels approaching with talk of intervention
EUR risks may be on the downside on ECB meeting
GBP strength could be challenged by UK data

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RBNZ Review: Signals easing soon
Paying Article

July 10, 2024 4:20 AM UTC

RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 5.5% and suggest inflation approaching target range

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UK Election Aftermath: Labour’s Solid Victory
Paying Article

July 5, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

Labour have won a large seat majority, though with a modest vote share.  This should provide political stability in the UK for the next 5 years.  The key question for market remains how the fiscal rule will be meet and how slowly or quickly Labour will take actions to boost long-term growth. 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 5th
Paying Article

July 5, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

US employment report the main market focus
Some mild USD downside risks seen
EUR has upside scope despite soft data
CAD may have the biggest scope for gains given positioning

U.S. June ISM Services - Negative reading contrasts strong S&P Services PMI
Paying Article

July 3, 2024 2:17 PM UTC

In a stark contrast to June’s S and P services index which at 55.3 improved on an unexpectedly strong May, June’s ISM services index has not only more than fully reversed an unexpected May improvement, in falling to 48.8 from 53.8, it is now back below neutral for the second time in three months

FX Weekly Strategy: July 1st-5th
Paying Article

June 28, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

US employment report and French and UK elections are the event highlights
Reaction to elections likely to be muted
Mild USD downside risk on employment report
JPY remains in the spotlight

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U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices slowing, Spending lagging Income in Q2
Paying Article

June 28, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

May core PCE prices are very soft, the 0.1% rise is on consensus but the gain was only 0.083% before rounding while the overall PCE price index was flat. Spending is losing momentum, with May’s rise only 0.2% and downward back revisions, this falling behind a stronger than expected 0.5% rise in pe

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q3 2024
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

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China: Retail Sales Drags Q2 GDP
Paying Article

July 15, 2024 7:33 AM UTC

We are revising down our 2024 GDP forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, both due to the weaker than expected Q2 GDP figure but also the weak underlying momentum of consumption.  Some further targeted policy measures are likely in the coming months, but will struggle to lift economic momentum.

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 2, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 4.3000 has given way to a bounce

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 8:09 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade - room for a test above 0.8900
Freemium Article

July 23, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Further consolidation - limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Further consolidation - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above 1.2894/00 - daily studies falling
Freemium Article

July 23, 2024 7:22 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating above 202.00 support, scope for break
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

Extending consolidation at the 202.00 level as prices unwind the oversold daily studies

AUD, JPY flows: AUD remains under pressure, JPY firm
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

AUD/JPY declining as regional risk sentiment remains weak.

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 6:46 AM UTC

Still weak and break of the 104.95/104.50 support see the 103.55/50, 61.8% Fibonacci level and congestion, now within reach

Chart USD/CNH Update: Lower in consolidation below the 7.3000 figure
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 5:21 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation just below the 7.3000 figure as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating stab to fresh 83.6775, all-time high
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 5:09 AM UTC

Saw stab to fresh all-time high at 83.6775 before settling back to consolidate at the 83.6300 level

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 July
Freemium Article

July 23, 2024 4:49 AM UTC

USD/JPY dipped another half a percent without catalyst 
Vice President Harris has secured enough delegates

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:46 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

AUD/USD flows: Risk sentiment broadly soft
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:45 AM UTC

Risk sentiment is broadly soft

USD/JPY flows: Looks like the turn has begun
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD/JPY dipped another half a percent without catalyst 
Vice President Harris has secured enough delegates

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Still room to extend corrective gains
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 3:18 AM UTC

Still room to extend gains from the 16094 low as prices correct losses from the 16474, June YTD high

Chart USD/THB Update: Lower in consolidation, scope for deeper pullback
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 3:12 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation below resistance at the 36.40 congestion and 50% Fibonacci level

Chart USD/KRW Update: Settling back from 1390.00/1395.00 resistance
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

 Settling back from test of the 1390.00/1395.00 resistance 

Chart USD/SGD Update: Room to extend gains
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 2:27 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3460/1.3477 resistance but pressure remains on the upside

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 2:09 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at the 1.2900 congestion

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating, room for deeper corrective pullback
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:41 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.0900 level and consolidation above the 1.0872 support see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but scope for lower to extend the July losses
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains in consolidation below the 172.00 resistance with pullback kept in check at the 170.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in consolidation below 157.70/158.00 resistance
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 1:09 AM UTC

Turning lower from the 157.70/158.00 resistance and pullback see scope for retest of the 156.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending losses, room to .5950/40
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 12:43 AM UTC

Extending the sharp July losses from the .6154 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6635, Fibonacci level
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 12:21 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend losses from the .6800 high and break of .6650 congestion has seen extension to the .6635

The Aussie Chapter 5: Kiwi, a tale of two cities
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ki

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 22 July
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - In mostly quiet trade the JPY made early gains which were partially corrected later in the day.  

Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Still firm, if a little less so
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 7:19 PM UTC

We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 1.0%, a slight slowing from Q1’s 1.2% but in line with recent trend, and keeping the picture quite strong.

Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Getting more consistent with payrolls
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 3:55 PM UTC

We expect a 130k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is what we also expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 3:50 PM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 18.0000 has met expected selling interest beneath 18.2000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to fresh gains

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 23rd
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

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German Data Preview (Jul 30): Inflation Stable Ahead of Fresh Fall in Coming Months?
Freemium Article

July 22, 2024 3:10 PM UTC

Base effects have caused the German disinflation process not to be smooth and this was even more clearly the case in recent numbers where after a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline HICP rate occurred rising 0.4 ppt to 2.8% in May was followed by a drop back to 2.5% in June, 0

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Preview: Due August 2 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower, in part on weather
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 175k, 130k in the private sector, both slightly slower than in May and June but stronger than in April, suggesting only a moderate loss of momentum in the labor market. We expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a second straight 0.3% increase

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:24 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion around 0.6650

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Turning down - studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

The bounce from congestion support at 170.00 has failed to test levels above congestion resistance at 172.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy in range - background is under pressure
Paying Article

July 22, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

The bounce towards congestion resistance at 158.00 has met selling interest just beneath here