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October 29, 2024 10:09 AM UTC
A fourth successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.0%) is widely seen at the looming Riksbank meeting (Nov 7), with the risk that it may even be the 50 bp move that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting. What seems clear is that inflation worries have subsi
October 28, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but now largely dissipated. The Bank has two policy meeting left this year – Nov 7 and Dec 19- but has offered no encouragement
October 28, 2024 9:56 AM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
October 28, 2024 9:35 AM UTC
The UK government is leaking parts of the October 30 budget to allow markets to adjust before the full announcement. While the new fiscal rule for debt/GDP could raise some modest concerns over increased supply for the gilt market initially, attention will quickly switch to the BOE November 7 and
October 27, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
October 27, 2024 6:00 PM UTC
BoJ may not hike but is likely to sound hawkish
US employment report may be weak but weather affected
USD/JPY downside risks as yield spreads should shift in JPY’s favour
GBP may benefit even though the budget is likely to be looser than previously thought
October 25, 2024 5:40 PM UTC
Brazil’s fiscal data through August shows a primary deficit of 2.3% of GDP, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue gains despite efforts to increase government income. Social transfers and unemployment benefits contributed to rising expenditures, now at 20.2% of GDP. The Central Bank’s recent
October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th
October 24, 2024 10:13 AM UTC
It is clear that PMI data are a key component of the data analysis of the ECB. We are somewhat sceptical of the data, at least in its ability to track GDP growth coincidently and accurately. But the data does offer a wide-ranging insight into private sector economic momentum. With this in mind t
October 23, 2024 6:25 PM UTC
Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.3% in August, with agriculture down 9% and the industrial sector shrinking by 0.5%. Construction dropped 3.6%, and employment growth slowed. Weaker internal demand and stabilizing U.S. demand signal more challenges ahead. Banxico may cut rates further, but subpar g
October 22, 2024 5:51 PM UTC
Since taking office, Milei's administration has focused on tackling Argentina's fiscal and monetary imbalances, implementing a shock fiscal plan to reduce expenditures by 4% in 2024. Fiscal surpluses have been recorded monthly, but the adjustment has caused three consecutive quarters of economic con
October 22, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
The outlook for 2yr yields is still dominated by the scale of expected Fed cuts and this remains fluid and most influenced by whether data continues to show momentum or whether the soft v hard landing debate reignites. However, other financial markets should also watch how expectations of the matu