FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 21st

November 20, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

PMIs may put downward pressure on the EUR
GBP risks on the downside on retail sales
JPY continues to make new lows despite verbal intervention…
…so that actual intervention risks are now very high

SARB Reduced Key Rate to 6.75% Following Favorable Inflation Outlook

November 20, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% during the MPC on November 20 owing to moderate inflation, stronger ZAR, few power cuts (loadshedding) in Q3, balanced growth risks, and lower oil prices. The MPC decision was unanimous. SARB governor Kganyago ment

U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker

November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov

FOMC Minutes from October 29 and data postponements reinforce doubts over a December move

November 19, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from October 29 state that participants expressed strongly differing views over what policy decision would be appropriate in December. With the Labor Department today announcing that the forthcoming non-farm payroll for September will be the last before the December 10 FOMC meeting, the

South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 20th

November 19, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

US September employment report finally due, USD upside risks
JPY weakness increases, intervention looking necessary
Equity bounce suggests scope for AUD recovery

November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 19th

November 19, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited