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June 20, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 20 June
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 7:36 PM UTC

Overview - CHF and GBP slipped after the SNB and BoE decisions but NOK advanced after the Norges Bank decision. Despite mostly softer than expected US data, the USD was generally stronger.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 21st
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

US PMIs a focus after May jump
Modest dip expected but unlikely to be enough to trigger much reaction
JPY weakness continues and may bring the BoJ into action
GBP could fall further but big EUR/GBP recovery unlikely ahead of French election

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BoE Review: MPC Splits Enlarge to Suggest Cut Soon
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:48 AM UTC

As widely Bank Rate was kept at 5.25% for the seventh successive MPC meeting this month, with its rhetoric largely unchanged.  But while there were still only two formal dissents, the minutes clearly suggested that for some of the remaining seven members the policy decision at this meeting was fine

Psychology for major markets June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

USD and risky currencies firm as equities move to new highs

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Norges Bank Review: Excessive Last Mile Caution?
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 9:04 AM UTC

It was always the very high likelihood that the thrust of recent data and the Board’s clear caution would mean that the Norges Bank would leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a fourth successive meeting and this is what duly occurred.  Perhaps more notable was that the it was more explicit in stress

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

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SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting.  We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.  

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 June
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%)

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

June 19, 2024

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BCB Review: A Pause in the Cutting Cycle
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 10:17 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank kept the policy rate at 10.5%, citing economic uncertainty and a need for caution. Inflation expectations for 2025 are 3.8%, above the 3.0% target. Political interference concerns persist, but the unanimous decision indicates a technical approach. The BRL's depreciation ma

Americas/Europe Summary and Highlights 19 June
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 3:05 PM UTC

Currencies traded in narrow ranges with only GBP holding onto its gains and the EUR losing some ground across the board.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 20th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

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South Africa’s Inflation Stayed Stable at 5.2% in May
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 10:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on June 19, the inflation held steady at 5.2% YoY in May, unchanged from April due to suspended power cuts (load shedding) coupled with unchanged food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) pr

Europe Summary and Highlights 19 June
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

Quite Europe saw GBP drift higher. 

Psychology for major markets June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

GBP up on UK service CPI. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:56 AM UTC

GBP firm after service inflation slows less than expected 
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 June
Freemium Article

June 19, 2024 5:22 AM UTC

Japan Headline trade balance and export beats, import missed but resumed expansion

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 4:48 AM UTC

Focus on UK CPI with BoE MPC meeting on Thursday
EUR/GBP may bounce a little if CPI doesn’t come in strong
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive

June 18, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 19th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Focus on UK CPI with BoE MPC meeting on Thursday
EUR/GBP may bounce a little if CPI doesn’t come in strong
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive

North American Summary and Highlights 18 June
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY advanced in Europe but the USD fell broadly in North America on weaker than expected US retail sales.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 19th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

Focus on UK CPI with BoE MPC meeting on Thursday
EUR/GBP may bounce a little if CPI doesn’t come in strong
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive

Psychology for major markets June 18th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

EUR stabilising as French risks seen as priced in for now. JPY still pressing the lows

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France Debt: Dependent on Non-Residents
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 9:20 AM UTC

Any further major fiscal slippage under a new government could prompt more of a reduction in French government bond exposure, which would likely mean a multi month/quarter risk premia for France and cause spillover difficulties for Italy. It is worth remembering that France is dependent on non-resid

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 June
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 5:14 AM UTC

RBA kept rate unchanged
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 18th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

RBA to stay put, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

RBA Review: Recognized slower inflation moderation
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on June 18th has kept rates on hold and see the moderation of inflation slower than expected

June 17, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

RBA to stand pat, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

North American Summary and Highlights 17 June
Freemium Article

June 17, 2024 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - EUR/JPY gains were the main story, though the USD some lost ground generally in North America.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 2:56 PM UTC

RBA to stand pat, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

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Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Trend losing some momentum
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 1:09 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.2% increase in May retail sales with ex auto sales increasing by only 0.1%. The data will however be restrained by lower gasoline prices and ex autos and gasoline we expect an increase of 0.3%.

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South Africa: ANC-DA-IFP-PA Coalition Will Run the Government
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a government of national unity (GNU) with the ANC-lead on June 14, along with two smaller opposition parties, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Patriotic Alliance (PA). Lawmakers voted to put former presi

FX Weekly Strategy: June 17th-21st
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 8:51 AM UTC

French political picture in focus as risk sentiment suffers
EUR likely to remain under pressure
Some downside risks for GBP on MPC meeting
PMIs look like the most important data

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e June 11th
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 7:01 AM UTC

Huge new high in CAD shorts. CHF shorts still very extended

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China Data: Mixed Momentum and No MTF Cut Until October
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

Overall the May data suggests that enough momentum exists for Q2 GDP to be above 5.0% Yr/Yr, which given the Q1 GDP figure means that the odds are good that the 2024 5.0% GDP target can be meet.  However, we see a softer of H2 GDP and 4.0% GDP in 2025, given weak domestic demand is unlikely to chan

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, June 17th-21st
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 4:51 AM UTC

French political picture in focus as risk sentiment suffers
EUR likely to remain under pressure
Some downside risks for GBP on MPC meeting
PMIs look like the most important data

June 16, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, June 17th-21st
Paying Article

June 16, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

French political picture in focus as risk sentiment suffers
EUR likely to remain under pressure
Some downside risks for GBP on MPC meeting
PMIs look like the most important data

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, June 17th-21st
Paying Article

June 16, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

French political picture in focus as risk sentiment suffers
EUR likely to remain under pressure
Some downside risks for GBP on MPC meeting
PMIs look like the most important data

June 14, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 14 June
Freemium Article

June 14, 2024 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - EUR remained weak while JPY recovered from post-BoJ losses. The USD was mostly firmer, but ended off its highs.  

FX Weekly Strategy: June 17th-21st
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 3:20 PM UTC

French political picture in focus as risk sentiment suffers
EUR likely to remain under pressure
Some downside risks for GBP on MPC meeting
PMIs look like the most important data

Psychology for major markets June 14th
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

EUR under pressure on French election concern; risk sentiment weakening

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 14th
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

BoJ the focus on Friday and surprised market again
Already plenty of reasons for JPY recovery, but increasingly hard to find a trigger
SEK vulnerable vs NOK unless CPI comes in strong
USD generally looks vulnerable if US outperformance fades

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 June
Freemium Article

June 14, 2024 5:33 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates on hold and did not cut bond purchase this month
Forward guidance suggest BoJ will decide bond purchase cut in July