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February 17, 2026
China: Boosting Consumption In March?
February 17, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
· China’s consumption medium term could be boosted by higher structural safety nets (social spending/health/pensions) and revisions to the Hukou system (shifting 200mln urban workers from lower rural to higher urban benefits). However, March NPC will likely see only further small to m
UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing on Wages
February 17, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh and deep falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1).
February 16, 2026
Warsh, AI and Lower Policy Rate?
February 16, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Warsh will find it tricky to convince FOMC members that AI is currently boosting productivity and acting as a disinflationary force. However, Warsh could also try to get the Fed to be more forward looking and less data dependent, which could add some proactivity into Fed debates. Fo
February 13, 2026
VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January
February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been
U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021
February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter
Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks
February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the
February 12, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%
February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc