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May 08, 2026
May 07, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 8th
May 7, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
US and Canadian employment data offer some USD upside risks
Focus remains on US/Iran negotiations with some good news already priced in
Japanese wage data could support BoJ rate hike expectations
GBP vulnerable to political fallout from local elections
Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April
May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 8th
May 7, 2026 2:48 PM UTC
US and Canadian employment data offer some USD upside risks
Focus remains on US/Iran negotiations with some good news already priced in
Japanese wage data could support BoJ rate hike expectations
GBP vulnerable to political fallout from local elections
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism
May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years. Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though
Sweden Riksbank Review: Fresh Tightening Bias But Mildly So?
May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook. Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been
Straits of Hormuz Scenarios
May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S. This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027. The al
May 06, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 6th
May 6, 2026 9:20 AM UTC
Slightly stronger USD favoured on ADP data
Middle East risks suggest equities and riskier currencies vulnerable, but hopes of US/Iran deal maintain positive sentiment for now
JPY weakness against European currencies looks increasingly hard to justify
GBP strength against the EUR is likely reaching its