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November 03, 2025
November 02, 2025
October 31, 2025
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?
October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 31st
October 31, 2025 9:56 AM UTC
EUR still biased lower despite solid data and more upbeat ECB
JPY weakness at extremes but little to halt the trend
FX intervention possible but without it only a turn in equities likely to trigger JPY recovery
Equities likely a driver of FX after tech results
U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation
October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
· The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments. The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Oct 31st
October 31, 2025 4:19 AM UTC
EUR still biased lower despite solid data and more upbeat ECB
JPY weakness at extremes but little to halt the trend
FX intervention possible but without it only a turn in equities likely to trigger JPY recovery
Equities likely a driver of FX after tech results
October 30, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 31st
October 30, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
EUR still biased lower despite solid data and more upbeat ECB
JPY weakness at extremes but little to halt the trend
FX intervention possible but without it only a turn in equities likely to trigger JPY recovery
Equities likely a driver of FX after tech results
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Oct 31st
October 30, 2025 4:14 PM UTC
EUR still biased lower despite solid data and more upbeat ECB
JPY weakness at extremes but little to halt the trend
FX intervention possible but without it only a turn in equities likely to trigger JPY recovery
Equities likely a driver of FX after tech results
ECB Review: Hedging its Bets, Hoping to Stay in a Good Place
October 30, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
There ie nothing tangible in the ECB update today to suggest that a further easing is likely at the next meeting on Dec 17-18. However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s resilience alongside a perceived reduction in global risks, the easing window has not been c
Turkiye: Macroeconomic Problems Limit Long Term Growth
October 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC
Bottom line: We forecast 3.5%-4.0% GDP growth in Turkiye in the 2026-2030 period. We are concerned with the macroeconomic problems will stay critical until 2027/2028, including stubborn inflation, trade and budget deficits, and weakening Turkish Lira (TRY). Despite growing population and young labor
Eurozone Flash GDP Review: The Haves and the Have-Nots
October 30, 2025 10:25 AM UTC
It continues to be the case that, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.3% in the year to Q3, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking save to encourage a Council view of EZ eco