FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jul 6-10

July 3, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

FOMC, ECB Minutes, RBNZ decision the highlights
Dollar ardour cools but spreads still in favour
NZD attempting to bounce if RBNZ plays ball
USD/JPY has done some n/t chart damage

EM Government Debt Sinners and Saints

July 3, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

·       Overall, the clearest EM fiscal sinner is Brazil, given its tax revenue/GDP ratio is already very high and requires politically sensitive expenditure cuts after the October election to increase the primary surplus to stabilize the government debt/GDP trajectory and get real bond yield

North American Summary and Highlights 2 July

July 2, 2026 8:04 PM UTC

Overview - Europe saw a sharp dip in USD/JPY while the USD fell more broadly after softer than expected UIS employment data. 

Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing

July 2, 2026 5:33 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jul 2

July 2, 2026 3:56 AM UTC

Payrolls in focus. Probably needs a 100k+/- surprise to prompt excitement
Friday's US holiday may leave mkt wary of Japan intervention, prompt some early covering
EUR/GBP still sitting on key support, risk of break remains

North American Summary and Highlights 1 July

July 1, 2026 7:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw a dip after comments from Fed’s Warsh, but remained firm, supported by soft Eurozone inflation. 

Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core

July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 2

July 1, 2026 3:06 PM UTC

Payrolls in focus. Probably needs a 100k+/- surprise to prompt excitement
Friday's US holiday may leave mkt wary of Japan intervention, prompt some early covering
EUR/GBP still sitting on key support, risk of break remains

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o