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May 06, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 6th
May 6, 2026 9:20 AM UTC
Slightly stronger USD favoured on ADP data
Middle East risks suggest equities and riskier currencies vulnerable, but hopes of US/Iran deal maintain positive sentiment for now
JPY weakness against European currencies looks increasingly hard to justify
GBP strength against the EUR is likely reaching its
May 05, 2026
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?
May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC
Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. This is likely to have been ab
U.S. Labour: In Praise of Older Workers
May 5, 2026 8:32 AM UTC
· While financial pressures are prompting U.S. workers to delay retirement and work longer, this is not being realized due to deteriorating health/labour market skills mismatches and other issues. More work from older workers is unlikely to be the solution to shrinking net immigration.
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 4th-8th
May 5, 2026 5:32 AM UTC
RBA Signals Last Hike for Now
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Not as strong as March but some positive signals
And Other U.S. Data
Sweden Riksbank On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time
Canada April Employment A modest gain with stable unemployment
May 04, 2026
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core
May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin
April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures
May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4. After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin