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March 25, 2026
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
UK CPI Review: Goodbye to the Good Old Days?
March 25, 2026 7:33 AM UTC
After January’s clear fall, even in the core rate, where the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) it stayed there in February’s numbers – matching both consensus and BoE projections. Services fell 0.1 ppt to 4.3% which was a four-year low (Figure 1) but the co
March 24, 2026
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February
March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would
March 23, 2026
Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces
March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
· For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027. A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi
Iran War Scenarios Updated
March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
· Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory. A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for
Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?
March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC
While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable. It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’. The question is whether