View:

July 11, 2025

Europe Summary and Highlights 11 July
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 9:58 AM UTC

EUR/USD edged 105pips higher to 1.1690 but USD/JPY gained 10 pips to 147 in the European morning.

Psychology for major markets Jul 11
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

USD recovering, JPY remains weak, more tariff news awaited

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 11th
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

GBP at risk from weaker GDP
Hard to justify current CAD levels given relative US/Canada performance
USD looking generally better bid as tariff announcement awaited

UK GDP Review: Another Downside Surprise
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP.  But that 0.3% m/m drop was almost repeated in the May numbers (Figure 1), where a further albeit smaller (ie 0.1%) fall occurred, but very much below consensus.  Admittedly

Asia Summary and Highlights 11 Jul
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 4:31 AM UTC

Trump hit Canada with 35% tariff, excluding USMCA goods and plans to double floor tariff
USD gained strongly against major on Trump's tariff 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 11th
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 4:01 AM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

July 10, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 11th
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

North American Summary and Highlights 10 Jul
Freemium Article

July 10, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly firmer, mostly versus the Europeans, assisted by a fall in initial claims. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 11th
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 2:56 PM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

...
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slower overall, but stronger in the private sector
Freemium Article

July 10, 2025 2:53 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r

Europe Summary and Highlights 10 July
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

 A quiet European morning session saw little change in the majors, with EUR/USD and USD/JPY steady.

Psychology for major markets Jul 10
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 10:01 AM UTC

USD stabilising after recent declines, JPY remains weak, more tariff news awaited

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 10th
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 8:43 AM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 Jul
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 5:26 AM UTC

U.S. equities lower, regional positive
Trump officially announcing a 50% tariff on Copper, also tariffs on Brazil

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 10th
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 4:59 AM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

July 09, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 10th
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

North American Summary and Highlights 9 Jul
Freemium Article

July 9, 2025 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly softer as UST yields slipped in a largely subdued day. 

...
FOMC Minutes from June 18 - Doves in the minority
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from June 18 show agreement to leave policy at 4.25-4.50%, and general agreement that the FOMC was well positioned to wait for more clarity. While there was some debate over the future outlook, doves appear to be in the minority. A couple were open to easing at the next meeting in July,

...
South Africa Opposes Trump’s 30% Tariffs
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After a 90-day reprieve, U.S. president Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would implement 30% additional tariffs against South Africa-origin products from August 1. Despite President Ramaphosa opposed what he calls the unilateral trade tariffs by the U.S., and emphasized that Sout

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 10th
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Equities firm despite tariff threat
JPY sees modest recovery after recent sharp losses
EUR and CHF may be more at risk from tariff announcements now
Potential for a NOK/SEK rally

...
UK CPI Preview (Jul 16): Services Inflation to Fall Further?
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late. Indeed, the timing of Easter may have been a partial factor in the May CPI, where a distinct drop back in services and core rates failed to make the headline drop, which instead stayed at 3.4% in line with BoE thinking due to hig

...
UK: Risk Picture Rising and Broadening
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 12:35 PM UTC

The BoE’s latest message from its Financial Policy Committee notes that UK household and corporate borrowers remain resilient in aggregate while the UK banking system remains in a strong position even if economic, financial and business conditions became substantially worse than expected.  But th

Europe Summary and Highlights 9 July
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

USD/JPY dropped 40 pips and the CHF was also a little firmer, with USD/CHF down 10 pips to 0.7960, and GBP/USD also gaining around 15 pips to 1.36, but other pairs were not much changed in the European morning. 

Psychology for major markets Jul 09
Paying Article

July 9, 2025 10:06 AM UTC

USD stabilising after recent declines, JPY remains weak, more tariff news awaited

...
Eurozone: Damage Limitations on Tariffs, Uncertainty to add to Banks' Caution??
Freemium Article

July 9, 2025 9:37 AM UTC

It remains unclear just how much of a movable feast the new U.S. tariff deadline of Aug 1 actually is.  Trade deals with the US were supposed to be agreed by today, or face the reciprocal tariffs as outlined in April. But that has now been deferred to, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, hinting ac