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September 19, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: Sep 22nd-26th
September 19, 2025 2:53 PM UTC
Limited impact likely from S&P PMIs, though weaker US numbers seen
JPY may manage a small recovery, but turn in equities needed to reverse weak trend
SEK could be vulnerable to Riksbank rate cut
Little chance of SNB action, but EUR/CHF may have found a near term base
September 18, 2025
SARB Holds Rate Stable at 7.0% to Bring the Inflation Down to New 3% Anchor and Assess Impacts of Earlier Cuts
September 18, 2025 6:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the policy rate at 7.0% during the MPC on September 18 as annual inflation hit 3.3% YoY in August which is above new inflation anchor coupled with surged core inflation. SARB governor Kganyago said on September 18 that MPC expects headline inflatio
BoE Review: Guillotine for Gilts?
September 18, 2025 11:53 AM UTC
That the BoE kept Bank Rate at 4% after this month’s MPC meeting was all but certain, as was the two vote dissent in favor of further easing. But of more note, and amid what have been recent hawkish hints from the MPC majority, was that the MPC adhered to its (conventional) policy guidance, stil
Norges Bank Review: More Caution But Another Cut Flagged for This Year
September 18, 2025 8:58 AM UTC
Despite the stronger than expected data seen of late (real and price-wise), as we expected, the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, an outcome markets had dithered over. But with a small cumulative upgrade to the real economy outlook and an ensuing reduction in the anticipat
Brazil: 15% Well Into 2026
September 18, 2025 6:29 AM UTC
The BCB statement was clear that the deanchored inflation picture still requires interest rates to be kept at current levels for a very prolonged period of time. The consensus for economists is that this will change in Q1 2026 with a 50bps cut, though ideas of December are fading. We suspect it
September 17, 2025
Fed: Signals 25bps October and December
September 17, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
The median Fed Funds is a strong hint that the Fed will deliver an extra 50bps most likely with 25bps in October and December. However, the split in the 2026 Fed Funds dots forecasts from FOMC members suggests that our forecast of just below trend growth and core PCE above target will likely mean
FOMC eases by 25bps, dots see two more 25bps moves this year
September 17, 2025 6:23 PM UTC
The FOMC has eased rates by 25bps to 4.0% to 4.75% with only one dissenting vote, the incoming Miran voting for 50bps. The main story in the dots is that the median sees two further 25bps moves this year rather than the expected one before seeing only one move in both 2026 and 2027, with no further
Bank of Canada - Clear consensus to ease, we expect two further 25bps moves
September 17, 2025 3:46 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to ease today for the first time since March, by 25bps to 2.50% was as the market expected. We expect two further easings from the BoC, in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2025, which would take the rate to 2.0%, which is likely to prove the floor.
South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August
September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang