View:
July 16, 2025
UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Fails to Fall Further as Headline Surprises on Upside?
July 16, 2025 6:42 AM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late and these may have reoccurred in the June numbers partly explaining June numbers which surprised on the upside. Indeed, June saw the headline and core rise a further 0.2 ppt – the former to an 18-mth high of 3.6%. Moreover, se
July 15, 2025
FOMC Preview for July 30: No change given uncertainty on tariffs and their consequences
July 15, 2025 6:15 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 30 and recent data suggests no reason to move rates from the current 4.25-4.50% level, though Q2 GDP data due on the morning on the decision will impact the wording of the statement. This meeting will not see an update to the dots leaving focus on Chairman Powell’s press con
Bank of Canada Preview for July 30: Hold after firm data with uncertainty high
July 15, 2025 3:30 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 30 and what had been seen as a close call between a 25bps easing and unchanged now looks likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.75%. Continued above target core CPI data and a strong employment report for June argue against easing, though uncertainty remains high with
U.S. June CPI - Tariff pass-through limited but not zero
July 15, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
June core CPI at 0.228% before rounding is on the low side of expectations and still shows a limited, though not zero, feed through from tariffs. Moderate gains in food and energy lifted overall CPI to a 0.3% increase, with the gain rounded up from 0.287%. Trump will use this data to argue for Fed
Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Restart its Easing Cycle on July 24
July 15, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held its key policy rate stable at 46% on June 19, we believe CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 150-250 bps during the MPC meeting scheduled for July 24 considering the deceleration trend in inflation in June beat forecasts and reinforced ex
FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 15th
July 15, 2025 8:49 AM UTC
US CPI data they key focus
Neutral numbers would likely maintain risk positive tone
CHF strength looks out of line with positive risk tone
JPY weakness excessive but hard to see a trigger for reversal
CAD looks well supported unless data is weak
ECB Preview (Jul 24, Part One): Labor Market Looking Softer than Council Thinking
July 15, 2025 8:45 AM UTC
The next ECB Council meeting decision on Jul 24 looms but where market (understandably) sees no further cut, at least at that juncture. Indeed, the ECB may signal signs of economic resilience albeit noting that the added uncertainty emanating from the latest U.S. tariff threat warrants more circum
China: GDP Resilient in Q2, But
July 15, 2025 7:30 AM UTC
• We do see H2 weakness relative to H1, as exports to the U.S. will slow again and the effects of the government consumption trade in programs fades. However, H1 has been higher than our forecasts and thus we are revising 2025 GDP growth to 4.8% v 4.4% previously. We keep 2026 GDP growt
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 15th
July 15, 2025 4:07 AM UTC
US CPI data they key focus
Neutral numbers would likely maintain risk positive tone
CHF strength looks out of line with positive risk tone
JPY weakness excessive but hard to see a trigger for reversal
CAD looks well supported unless data is weak
July 14, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 15th
July 14, 2025 9:00 PM UTC
US CPI data they key focus
Neutral numbers would likely maintain risk positive tone
CHF strength looks out of line with positive risk tone
JPY weakness excessive but hard to see a trigger for reversal
CAD looks well supported unless data is weak
Tariffs: Seeking a Trigger for the TACO Trade
July 14, 2025 4:28 PM UTC
It has been fairly clear for some time that 10% represented a likely floor for the eventual Trump tariff regime. However, expectations that Trump would not be willing to go dramatically above that are being tested. A rate in the mid-teens still looks the most likely outcome, as the economic damage t
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 15th
July 14, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
US CPI data they key focus
Neutral numbers would likely maintain risk positive tone
CHF strength looks out of line with positive risk tone
JPY weakness excessive but hard to see a trigger for reversal
CAD looks well supported unless data is weak
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs
July 14, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe