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March 31, 2025
U.S. Trade Surplus Countries: No Special Treatment?
March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC
Quick dilutions of tariffs or exemption will likely be slow in coming for countries that the U.S. has trade surpluses with, as the Trump administration are currently more focused on tariffs for tax revenue and trying to switch production back to the U.S. than trade deals. Trade policy uncertainty
March 30, 2025
March 29, 2025
Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B
March 28, 2025
Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of
March 27, 2025
Norges Review (Mar 27): Policy Easing Delayed but Far From Abandoned?
March 27, 2025 10:01 AM UTC
As was perhaps just the more likely case, the Norges Bank did not deliver on the rate cut it had been flagging very clearly until recently. Instead, it kept the policy rate at 4.5% on the back of inflation having been markedly higher than expected and where wage growth in 2024 turned out higher th
Car Tariffs Then Lenient Reciprocal Tariffs?
March 27, 2025 8:59 AM UTC
The 25% tariffs on cars underlines that tariffs are not just about getting better trade deals, but in Trump’s view raising (tax) revenue and trying to shift production back to the U.S. Combined with other tariffs being implemented, plus policy uncertainty, we see a moderate overall hit from t
March 26, 2025
Bank of Canada Minutes from March 12 - Debate over the 25bps easing, agreement to proceed carefully
March 26, 2025 6:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 12 meeting, and these show some debate about the meeting’s decision to ease by 25bps to 2.75% and agreement to proceed carefully with further changes to policy. A lot can happen before the BoC next meets on April 16, but these minutes suggest
UK Spring Fiscal Statement – A Patch-up Not a Repair Job?
March 26, 2025 1:39 PM UTC
Chancellor Reeves never wanted a fiscal event at this juncture. But market pressure and economic weakness have forced her into a series of government spending cuts designed to shore up her recently revised fiscal goals via this so-call spring statement. The problem here is twofold. Firstly, the
EMFX Outlook: Divergence versus the USD
March 26, 2025 9:16 AM UTC
EM currencies will be helped by the ongoing USD downtrend against DM currencies, but prospects also depend on relative inflation differentials versus the USD and starting point in terms of valuations. The Brazilian Real (BRL), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) should all make modest s
UK CPI Review: Inflation Slips Even as Services Fail to Soften?
March 26, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals. They may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for the core to 3.5%. This came in spite of higher alcohol duties and no dro
March 25, 2025
BCB Minutes: Caution Rather than Optimism
March 25, 2025 10:51 PM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) raised the policy rate by 100bps to 14.25% amid signs of economic deceleration, including slower growth, job creation, and consumption. The BCB highlighted external uncertainties, such as U.S. trade policy, and domestic challenges with rising inflation. It emphasized
German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?
March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%. This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation. Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment
March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC
· In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff
FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 25th
March 25, 2025 9:58 AM UTC
USD and equity recovery looks partly technical
Conference Board consumer confidence could determine if rally extends on Tuesday
EUR will be focused on IFO, which looks low relative to the PMI
JPY weakness looks excessive but unlikely to turn while equities gain
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 25th
March 25, 2025 3:36 AM UTC
USD and equity recovery looks partly technical
Conference Board consumer confidence could determine if rally extends on Tuesday
EUR will be focused on IFO, which looks low relative to the PMI
JPY weakness looks excessive but unlikely to turn while equities gain
March 24, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 25th
March 24, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
JPY still has potential for gains unless market sentiment improves
EUR may get some support from PMIs
US PMI, trade and confidence data has potential for more impact than usual
GBP may be vulnerable to CPI and fiscal update
AUD tone has weakened but big picture still looks positive