View:

February 21, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

February 20, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:16 PM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

Psychology for major markets Feb 20
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

Positive equity market tone keeping the USD and JPY on the back foot

...
ECB – What is it Actually Targeting as it Assesses Price Persistence?
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

The ECB remit is targeting an inflation rate of 2% over the medium term.  Implicit in this is that this is measured on a moving y/y basis.  However, there is nothing sacrosanct in this as the ECB is starting to be more open about using shorter-term measures, albeit more as indicators of price mome

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 9:58 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 151
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Feb 13th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

GBP net long positions stand out as extended. AUD and JPY significantly net short.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 150
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:00 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 150
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

February 19, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 5:43 AM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

February 18, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 18, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 18, 2024 6:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

February 16, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 4:32 PM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

Psychology for major markets Feb 16
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 11:08 AM UTC

USD holding firm after CPI, GBP falling back after weaker CPI and GDP, EUR/USD range bound

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 16th
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

UK retail sales to bounce, but GBP still vulnerable
US PPI unlikely to have a market impact
USD to stay firm for now
JPY weakness on the crosses is stretched

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 16th
Paying Article

February 16, 2024 4:31 AM UTC

UK retail sales to bounce, but GBP still vulnerable
US PPI unlikely to have a market impact
USD to stay firm for now
JPY weakness on the crosses is stretched

February 15, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 16th
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

UK retail sales to bounce, but GBP still vulnerable
US PPI unlikely to have a market impact
USD to stay firm for now
JPY weakness on the crosses is stretched

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 16th
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 4:12 PM UTC

UK retail sales to bounce, but GBP still vulnerable
US PPI unlikely to have a market impact
USD to stay firm for now
JPY weakness on the crosses is stretched

...
U.S. January Retail Sales See a Significant Dip to Start the New Year
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 2:07 PM UTC

US retail sales have made a weaker than expected start to Q1, falling by 0.8% overall, 0.6% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline. One weak month after a strong Q4 (though Q4 did see downward revisions with this report) does not make a trend however, and January’s weakness may be in part weather

Psychology for major markets Feb 15
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 11:21 AM UTC

USD holding firm after CPI, GBP falling back after weaker CPI and GDP

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 15th
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 10:13 AM UTC

US retail sales unlikely to have a big impact.
USD remains well supported, but USD/JPY extended
AUD vulnerable after weaker employment data
GBP has further downside risks after UK GDP

...
UK GDP Review: Recession Confirmed
Paying Article

February 15, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Coming in lower than expected after taking account of downward revisions, and probably hit by industrial action, GDP shrank by 0.1% m/m in December data, a result that reflected the plunge in retail sales and abnormal weather that meant a Q4 drop in GDP and consumer sending (Figure 1).  Admittedly

February 14, 2024

...
Brazil: Real Wage Growth to Boost Consumption
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 10:20 PM UTC

Brazil's labor market showed remarkable resilience in 2023, with a notable decrease in unemployment to 7.4% from 8.6%. Increased occupation drove consumption and growth, though real wage growth outpaced job creation. Despite challenges, strong syndicates and minimum wage policies will sustain upward

...
Russia’s Inflation Remains High at 7.4% in January
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After increasing seven months in a row till December 2023, inflation remained unchanged at 7.4% YoY in January after December. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, high salaries and benefits, and

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 4:18 PM UTC

US retail sales unlikely to have a big impact.
USD remains well supported, but USD/JPY extended
AUD vulnerable if employment fails to bounce strongly
GBP has further downside risks on UK GDP

...
Markets: ECB/BOE/SNB Before the Fed?
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 11:35 AM UTC

Bottom Line:  We do see 25bps cuts arriving from the ECB/BOE and SNB and most likely these will all be in June.  Whether this is before the Fed will likely be a function of the Fed, as we see these interest rate moves as being driven by domestic fundamentals rather than the Fed being an influence.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

GBP moderates on CPI
Declining risk premia also supporting GBP and other risky currencies…
…but are at levels which suggest danger of an equity correction is rising
JPY preferred to CHF as safe haven if risk premia rise

...
UK CPI Inflation Review: Headline and Core Steady But Softer Underlying Pressures Evident
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

Superimposed over both upside and downside surprises, UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months the former having peaked above 10% in February and the latter at 7.1% In May. However, this trend surprisingly stalled in December as the headline rate

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2024 6:02 AM UTC

GBP strength may moderate on CPI
Declining risk premia also supporting GBP and other risky currencies…
…but are at levels which suggest danger of an equity correction is rising
JPY preferred to CHF as safe haven if risk premia rise

February 13, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

GBP strength may moderate on CPI
Declining risk premia also supporting GBP and other risky currencies…
…but are at levels which suggest danger of an equity correction is rising
JPY preferred to CHF as safe haven if risk premia rise

U.S. January Median CPI at 11-Month High
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 5:23 PM UTC

The Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI for January confirms the relatively broad based nature of the upside CPI surprise, rising by 6.5% annualized, its strongest increase since February 2023.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

GBP strength may moderate on CPI
Declining risk premia also supporting GBP and other risky currencies…
…but are at levels which suggest danger of an equity correction is rising
JPY preferred to CHF as safe haven if risk premia rise

...
Brazil: Bolsonaro Closer to Facing Jail Time
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

The Brazilian Supreme Court's action against Bolsonaro's inner circle, accusing them of undermining the rule of law and plotting against electronic voting, signals a potential turning point. Bolsonaro's popularity, despite legal challenges, underscores Brazil's divided political landscape. The upcom

Psychology for major markets Feb 13
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

GBP firm, CHF weaker as Swiss inflaiton drops and UK labour market remains solid

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 9:56 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on US CPI…
…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market strength
GBP firmer after labour market data

...
Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag

...
UK Labor Market: Further Signs of Clearly Softer Wage Pressure
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

As we have underscored repeatedly, the BoE has come to regard the official average earnings data with some suspicion; after all, they have implied wage growth being well above other official and survey sources.  But even though they were higher than consensus thinking, the latest data are showing s

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 6:04 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on US CPI…
…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market strength
GBP vulnerable to weaker UK labour market data

February 12, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on US CPI…
…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market strength
GBP vulnerable to weaker UK labour market data

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on US CPI…
…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market strength
GBP vulnerable to weaker UK labour market data