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June 20, 2025
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th
June 19, 2025
Hawkish Stance Maintained: CBRT Held the Key Rate Stable at 46% Despite Softening Inflation
June 19, 2025 7:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate unchanged at 46% during the MPC on June 19 despite inflation continues to ease. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved via a sustained decline in in
BoE Review : Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish Hold
June 19, 2025 11:51 AM UTC
A stable BoE policy decision was always the most likely (Bank Rate staying at 4.25%) as the MPC discussed its two alternative scenarios still, but possibly where hawks have been forced into diluting what were previous concerns about a ‘tight’ labor market. In fact, partly based on what was see
Norges Bank Review: Coming (Very) Late to the Party
June 19, 2025 8:57 AM UTC
Although we thought the Norges Bank would not start to ease until its next (Aug) meeting, we think the surprise 25 bp policy rate cut (to 4.25%) announced today is very much warranted, as are the further cuts (Figure 1) being flagged in the updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR) – ie two more such m
SNB: Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option
June 19, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
The SNB would probably prefer to consolidate the effects of previous rate cuts, but the low inflation forecast and downside risk to inflation means that a cut to -0.25% is feasible at the September or December meetings. The SNB will also hope that the threat of negative rates restrains the CHF s
Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold
June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC
Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period. Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate. We would suspect
June 18, 2025
Fed: Hold Then Cautious Easing
June 18, 2025 7:27 PM UTC
Though the SEP reduced growth forecasts and boosted inflation, the guidance from the Fed remains that policy is on hold in the coming meetings. Though the FOMC median still has two 2025 cuts, the breakdown shows that this was a close call and a lot of members see no cut or only 25bps. We look for
FOMC more pessimistic than March forecasts but not compared to May statement
June 18, 2025 6:23 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% as expected. The median rate forecast is unchanged at 3.9% for end 2025 but the FOMC now sees only 25bps of easing in 2026 rather than 50bps, with 2027 still seeing 25bps, but the end 2027 rate is now seen at 3.4% from 3.1%, leaving a slightly hawkish