View:

February 28, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 28th
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 4:58 AM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

February 27, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

...
Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

...
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

...
ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

Psychology for major markets February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

...
Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent
The broad risk sentiment is sour

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 5:07 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

February 26, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 27th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

North American Summary and Highlights 26 February
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mixed with Trump tariff comments hurting the EUR but giving brief support to the CAD. 

...
U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC

While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 27th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

...
Eurozone: Gauging ECB Neutral Amid a Wandering R-Star
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

It is clear that, especially with another official rate cut due at the looming ECB Council meeting (Mar 6), the existing debate about how restrictive policy will be may only intensify.  Indeed, the debate is already quite vocal, led by the hawks who are trying to argue for policy pause at least. 

Psychology for major markets February 26th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 11:04 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 26 February
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Another quiet morning in Europe saw little change in the majors.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 26th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 9:58 AM UTC

USD struggling as confidence weakens
European currencies supported by better equity performance
JPY still looks to have the most upside potential
AUD preferred to CAD

...
Equities: Growth, Rates and Tariffs
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

·        EZ equities still have further scope to outperform U.S. equities in the remainder of 2025 helped by further ECB easing/hopes of a Ukraine peace deal and U.S. equity market overvaluation restraining the U.S.  However, this can be volatile with uncertainty over the scale of U.S. tari

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e February 18th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

Net short CAD, NZD and CHF positions remain high, net JPY positioning starting to move significantly long

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 February
Freemium Article

February 26, 2025 5:13 AM UTC

Australian January monthly CPI 2.5% y/y
The US House has passed the Republican Budget plan
China not happy with Canada, citing disrupt international trade rules, harm global supply chain

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 26th
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 4:48 AM UTC

USD struggling as confidence weakens
European currencies supported by better equity performance
JPY still looks to have the most upside potential
AUD preferred to CAD

February 25, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 26th
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD struggling as confidence weakens
European currencies supported by better equity performance
JPY still looks to have the most upside potential
AUD preferred to CAD

North American Summary and Highlights 25 February
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 8:31 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly weaker as worries built on US economic prospects, but USD/CAD rose on continued tariff concerns. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 26th
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 3:58 PM UTC

USD struggling as confidence weakens
European currencies supported by better equity performance
JPY still looks to have the most upside potential
AUD preferred to CAD

...
Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

...
Eurozone: Wages – Good News Comes in Threes?
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 11:40 AM UTC

They say that good things often come in threes.  For the ECB, Q4 data on negotiated wages just released adds to both INDEED compiled wage indicator and the central bank’s own wage tracker data in suggesting softening if not very muted cost pressures, something we attribute to the rising EZ labor

Psychology for major markets February 25th
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

USD stabilising at lower levels. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 25 February
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

There was little net change in the USD through the European morning. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 25th
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios

...
China: More U.S. Tariffs, No Yuan Depreciation?
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    China is currently reluctant to see Yuan depreciation as it wants to get the U.S. to the negotiating table for a revised phase 1 trade deal and also over concerns about domestic capital outflows.  Cuts to the 7-day reverse repo rate are now likely to be in 10bps steps and we look for the

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 February
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 5:27 AM UTC

Japan PPI Services for January +3.1% y/y
Trump confirmed that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect on March 4

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 25th
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios

February 24, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 25th
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios

North American Summary and Highlights 24 February
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 8:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw some gains in Europe, led by EUR/USD slippage, but stabilized in North America, apart from USD/CAD rising on Trump tariff comments.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 25th
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 4:13 PM UTC

EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios

...
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): Headline Back Down With Friendlier Core Messages?
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 3:34 PM UTC

February HICP inflation numbers may deliver better news and broadly so (Figure 1) and thus contrast with the mixed messages in the higher-than-expected January flash HICP numbers.  Indeed, for a third successive month in January, the headline rose but by ‘only’ 0.1ppt, to a six-month high of 2.

Europe Summary and Highlights 24 February
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 11:08 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through the European morning, with the EUR losing the most ground, reversing most of the overnight gains seen after the German election result.

Psychology for major markets February 24th
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

USD stabilising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise

FX Weekly Strategy: February 24-28th
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

No Significant Revision for US Q4 GDP
US Core PCE to underperform Core CPI
A Solid Q4 GDP for Canada
USD/JPY To Remain Fluid

...
Germany: A New but Hampered Government
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

The German election delivered few surprises with the electorate swinging even more clearly away from the political middle ground.  It clearly means that many difficult decisions lie ahead with questions over the effectiveness of the likely new government.  The result is only likely to inflame US c

...
Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation.  This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,

Asia Summary and Highlights 24th February
Freemium Article

February 24, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

Germany Election Resulte Cheers Euro

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 24-28th
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 5:02 AM UTC

No Significant Revision for US Q4 GDP
US Core PCE to underperform Core CPI
And other US Data
A Solid Q4 GDP for Canada
USD/JPY To Remain Fluid

February 21, 2025

...
Banxico Minutes: More Cuts on the Way
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 9:57 PM UTC

Banxico cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9.5%, signaling a more dovish stance as inflation trends downward. The board cited weak domestic demand and improved inflation prospects but highlighted risks from U.S. policy uncertainty, tariffs, and immigration effects. While most members supported a 50 bp

North American Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:58 PM UTC

Overview - Weak services PMI data was seen in France and the US. The USD was mostly firmer, but USD/JPY fell sharply with equities and UST yields. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient