View:
May 30, 2025
Bank of Canada Preview for June 4: A close call for another policy pause
May 30, 2025 3:43 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 4 and it is a close call between leaving rates unchanged at 2.75% and a 25bps easing to 2.5%, though we now lean to the former. The statement is unlikely to give any forward guidance and we still expect further easing this year as the economy weakens in response to U
FX Weekly Strategy: June 2nd-6th
May 30, 2025 3:02 PM UTC
Tariff issues still the main focus
EUR may suffer from any new US tariff measures
ECB rate cut and lower inflation forecast may also be EUR negative
CAD to gain modest support from BoC
JPY can gain in risk negative secanrio but should in any case be well supported
Sweden: Riksbank Needs to Revise Output Gap Estimate and Reassess Policy Outlook?
May 30, 2025 11:49 AM UTC
We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18. Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible. This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r
Tax Foreigners Assets: How To Lose Friends
May 30, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
Increasing taxes on dividends on U.S. equities and corporate bond coupons would alarm foreign investors and hurt the USD and U.S. equities, as it would amplifies foreign investors concerns that they are overweight U.S. assets and the USD. Starting a capital war with investors into the U.S. is
May 29, 2025
SA MPC Review: SARB Cuts Key Rate to 7.25% on May 29 Given Subdued Inflation
May 29, 2025 4:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the policy rate to 7.25% during the MPC on May 29 highlighting that annual inflation remained below SARB’s target range of 3%-6% hitting 2.8% YoY in April coupled with eased core inflation in April and a stronger Rand. We think the recent with
Court Stops Trump Reciprocal and Fentanyl Tariff
May 29, 2025 7:18 AM UTC
• The Trump administration will likely follow a multi-track response by appealing the judgement but also fast-tracking section 232 product tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The administration could also consider section 301 or 122 tariffs (the latter 15% for 150 days against c
May 28, 2025
FOMC Minutes from May 7 - Still concerned that inflation could prove persistent
May 28, 2025 7:04 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from May 7 may be a little dated as tariffs on China have subsequently been reduced significantly, but there is no suggestion in any subsequent Fed commentary that the Fed is no longer concerned over the risks that the minutes outline. All participants judged that it was appropriate to