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February 28, 2025
February 27, 2025
Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC
Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co
February 26, 2025
U.S. Budget Proposal Shows Fiscal Policy Scope is Limited
February 26, 2025 6:55 PM UTC
While there is still a long way to go before legislation is passed, passage of a budget proposal in the House makes the fiscal policy outlook look clearer, and reduces negative risks such as a government shutdown or a debt default. The package is will probably be a mild negative for economic growth,
Eurozone: Gauging ECB Neutral Amid a Wandering R-Star
February 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
It is clear that, especially with another official rate cut due at the looming ECB Council meeting (Mar 6), the existing debate about how restrictive policy will be may only intensify. Indeed, the debate is already quite vocal, led by the hawks who are trying to argue for policy pause at least.
Equities: Growth, Rates and Tariffs
February 26, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
· EZ equities still have further scope to outperform U.S. equities in the remainder of 2025 helped by further ECB easing/hopes of a Ukraine peace deal and U.S. equity market overvaluation restraining the U.S. However, this can be volatile with uncertainty over the scale of U.S. tari
February 25, 2025
Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,
Eurozone: Wages – Good News Comes in Threes?
February 25, 2025 11:40 AM UTC
They say that good things often come in threes. For the ECB, Q4 data on negotiated wages just released adds to both INDEED compiled wage indicator and the central bank’s own wage tracker data in suggesting softening if not very muted cost pressures, something we attribute to the rising EZ labor
FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 25th
February 25, 2025 9:48 AM UTC
EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios
China: More U.S. Tariffs, No Yuan Depreciation?
February 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
• China is currently reluctant to see Yuan depreciation as it wants to get the U.S. to the negotiating table for a revised phase 1 trade deal and also over concerns about domestic capital outflows. Cuts to the 7-day reverse repo rate are now likely to be in 10bps steps and we look for the
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 25th
February 25, 2025 4:44 AM UTC
EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios
February 24, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 25th
February 24, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 25th
February 24, 2025 4:13 PM UTC
EUR/USD likely to hold the range with risks weighted to the downside
JPY has upside scope but requires an event to break key levels
Market in general awaits news on tariffs to determine risk sentiment
AUD/CAD looks biased higher in most scenarios
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): Headline Back Down With Friendlier Core Messages?
February 24, 2025 3:34 PM UTC
February HICP inflation numbers may deliver better news and broadly so (Figure 1) and thus contrast with the mixed messages in the higher-than-expected January flash HICP numbers. Indeed, for a third successive month in January, the headline rose but by ‘only’ 0.1ppt, to a six-month high of 2.
Germany: A New but Hampered Government
February 24, 2025 8:53 AM UTC
The German election delivered few surprises with the electorate swinging even more clearly away from the political middle ground. It clearly means that many difficult decisions lie ahead with questions over the effectiveness of the likely new government. The result is only likely to inflame US c
Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats
February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC
· Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation. This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,
February 21, 2025
Banxico Minutes: More Cuts on the Way
February 21, 2025 9:57 PM UTC
Banxico cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9.5%, signaling a more dovish stance as inflation trends downward. The board cited weak domestic demand and improved inflation prospects but highlighted risks from U.S. policy uncertainty, tariffs, and immigration effects. While most members supported a 50 bp