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September 04, 2026
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 7-11
September 4, 2026 2:47 PM UTC
US CPI a key focal point. We see upside risks at 0.3% core
ECB hike fully priced in; attention turns to forecasts and commentary on policy stance
Sharp USD/JPY lurch down may have left behind better supply into bounces, further downside risks ahead
BoE seen back of the tightening pack, sterling could s
U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call
September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct
September 03, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
September 3, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
Money supply - Fed Invites an Awkward Ex Back into its Life
September 3, 2026 10:52 AM UTC
* Following the ‘Easter egg’ M2 reference, Warsh has made clear that ‘money matters’
* But while M2 was name-checked and described as benign, broader measures have been running strongly, well above the referenced 2010 norms
* M4 Divisia gives one of the better currently available measures, con
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Sep 3
September 3, 2026 4:13 AM UTC
Challenging backdrop as rising yields apply pressure, creates potential volatile correlations
Current default mode is squeezing both sides - CHF as the low yielder, risk counters on the other
JPY finds support, rotation incentives intensify
Sterling slipping in favour as hike laggard and amid global pr
September 02, 2026
Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening
September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp
Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening
September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 3
September 2, 2026 2:43 PM UTC
Challenging backdrop as rising yields apply pressure, creates potential volatile correlations
Current default mode is squeezing both sides - CHF as the low yielder, risk counters on the other
JPY finds support, rotation incentives intensify
Sterling slipping in favour as hike laggard and amid global pr
BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike
September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo
BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike
September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo