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February 18, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 10:06 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP firmer after labour market data
SEK stays strong after CPI
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

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UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks.  Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

RBA Review: It has begun
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 4:47 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th cut rates on by 25bps to 4.1% and suggest data dependency going forward

February 17, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Psychology for major markets February 17th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

USD generally soft as risk sentiment remains positive while strong Japanese data pulls USD/JPY lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 February
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw generally little FX action, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD all little changed on the morning, reversing a small USD rally seen in the middle of the session.

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Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

·       President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.

FX Weekly Strategy: February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e February 11th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

Net short CAD, NZD and CHF positions remain high, net JPY positioning starting to move significantly long

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 February
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:54 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April

February 16, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 16, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 16, 2025 6:00 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

February 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:18 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was marginally softer in Europe, and losses accelerated after weak US retail sales data. 

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Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC

Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services

FX Weekly Strategy: February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

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U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c

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CBR Held Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on February 14 for the second consecutive time supported by the recent RUB strengthening while the inflation remains elevated. CBR said in its statement on February 14 that current inflationary pressures remain

Psychology for major markets February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

USD softer as tariff concerns are brushed off

Europe Summary and Highlights 14 February
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

The USD was marginally softer in a quiet European morning, maintaining the losses seen overnight, with GBP, CHF and AUD edging up around 0.1% but EUR, JPY and CAD little changed. 

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China: Private Sector Balance Sheet Recession?
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

  Overall, we maintain the view that parts of China’s household sector are showing signs of a balance sheet debt consolidation, due to the excess buildup of debt in the past 20 years relative to disposable income.  The non-financial corporate sector is more difficult to interpret, due to strengt

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says will respond appropriately to US tariffs

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:02 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

February 13, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

North American Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 8:43 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw losses with UST yields after US PPI data proved not quite strong enough to raise inflationary concerns. A Trump tariff announcement gave the USD only a brief lift. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:02 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

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Revised FOMC view: One 25 bps easing in late 2025, two 25bps easings in 2026
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

Strength in January CPI does in part reflect residual seasonality, but continued stalling of progress in yr/yr growth is of concern. This revives concerns that the economy may need to slow to return inflation to the 2.0% target, something tariffs are likely to make more difficult. Uncertainty is exc

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Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality.  Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration

Psychology for major markets February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 11:23 AM UTC

Riskier currencies supported by Ukraine optimism

Europe Summary and Highlights 13 February
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

The EUR and most of the other risky currencies edged lower against the USD through the European morning, with the exception being GBP, which held its own.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

USD PPI risks on the upside
EUR gains on Ukraine news 
JPY weakness looks stretched
GBP gains on GDP unlikely to extend

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UK GDP Review: Surprise Resilience
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 7:58 AM UTC

GDP data for the end of 2024 very much surprised on the upside albeit still failing to convey an impression of UK’s economy displaying solidity, if not strength.  Admittedly GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in December, the largest such gain in 11 months (Figure 1) and enough to have allowed Q4 see growth of

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 4:57 AM UTC

Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:30 AM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

February 12, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

North American Summary and Highlights 12 February
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 8:49 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced after a stronger than expected CPI but the gains were largely erased, outside a sustained bounce in USD/JPY. 

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Bank of Canada Minutes Back 25bps Easing, Less Clear on Potential Tariff Implications
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 7:09 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 29 meeting, which show no signs that the decision to ease by 25bps saw much debate. Uncertainty due to tariff risks was seen as supporting the decision. However, should a trade war with the US be seen, the minutes show a more balanced view, co

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 4:14 PM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

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U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be

Europe Summary and Highlights 12 February
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 11:07 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw EUR/USD edge up 15 pips to 1.0375, while AUD/USD lost 15 pips to 0.6275.

Psychology for major markets February 12th
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 11:04 AM UTC

Riskier currencies bounce modestly after neutral Powell comments

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UK CPI Preview (Feb 19): Inflation Drop to Target Deferred
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC

After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking.  This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price