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August 05, 2025
Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
Norges Bank Preview (Aug 14): Amid Very Restrictive Stance, A Policy Pause – Already?
August 5, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
Although surprised, we thought the Norges Bank’s unexpected easing in June was very much warranted, as are the further cuts being flagged in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) that came alongside – ie two more such moves by end year. We actually envisage up to three more moves this year and arou
DM Rates: Slowdown Debate Trump’s Independence Question for Now
August 5, 2025 9:50 AM UTC
U.S. Treasury spreads versus other DM government bond markets or 10-2yr U.S. Treasuries are not yet showing a risk premium from the Trump administration attacks on the Fed and economic data. Debate over whether the U.S. is seeing a soft or hard landing are reemerging and this will dominate the outlo
August 04, 2025
Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Suggests Weaker Demand For Business Investment
August 4, 2025 6:44 PM UTC
The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests uncertainty is restraining investment demand, with supply signals on balance fairly neutral but demand signals weaker.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
August 4, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is
Trump Tougher Posture with Russia
August 4, 2025 8:31 AM UTC
We suspect that Trump will not follow-through with an across the board secondary sanction on importers of Russia oil, as it would freeze U.S./China trade again and could boost U.S. gasoline prices – high inflation is one main reason for Trump’s softer approval rating. Trump could agre
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 4, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
August 03, 2025
August 01, 2025
U.S. July Employment - Revisions to May and June mean trend has slowed significantly
August 1, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected not only with the 73k headline and 83k rise in the private sector, but also with large downward revisions totaling 258k for May and June. Unemployment remains low but edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% while average hourly earnings were on consensus at 0.3%,