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February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC
There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks. Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu
February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC
· President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.
February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services
February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c
February 14, 2025 12:24 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on February 14 for the second consecutive time supported by the recent RUB strengthening while the inflation remains elevated. CBR said in its statement on February 14 that current inflationary pressures remain
February 14, 2025 10:45 AM UTC
Overall, we maintain the view that parts of China’s household sector are showing signs of a balance sheet debt consolidation, due to the excess buildup of debt in the past 20 years relative to disposable income. The non-financial corporate sector is more difficult to interpret, due to strengt
February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl
February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
February 13, 2025 12:46 PM UTC
Strength in January CPI does in part reflect residual seasonality, but continued stalling of progress in yr/yr growth is of concern. This revives concerns that the economy may need to slow to return inflation to the 2.0% target, something tariffs are likely to make more difficult. Uncertainty is exc
February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC
European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality. Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration
February 13, 2025 7:58 AM UTC
GDP data for the end of 2024 very much surprised on the upside albeit still failing to convey an impression of UK’s economy displaying solidity, if not strength. Admittedly GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in December, the largest such gain in 11 months (Figure 1) and enough to have allowed Q4 see growth of
February 12, 2025 7:09 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 29 meeting, which show no signs that the decision to ease by 25bps saw much debate. Uncertainty due to tariff risks was seen as supporting the decision. However, should a trade war with the US be seen, the minutes show a more balanced view, co
February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be
February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC
After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking. This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price