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December 12, 2025
Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?
December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
· The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026. However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data. We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a
UK GDP Review: Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless
December 12, 2025 7:47 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the October GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months (Figure 1), and where the unexpected further 0.
December 11, 2025
Softer November CPI Print Encouraged CBRT to Cut Key Rate to 38% on December 11
December 11, 2025 8:54 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% during the MPC meeting on December 11 encouraged by softer November inflation. The committee said inflation expectations and pricing behavior are showing signs of improvement even as they continue to po
Swiss SNB Review: Preserving Ammunition
December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC
Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change. Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation. Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy
Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November
December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue
Brazil: March 50bps Cut?
December 11, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
BCB remain focused on getting inflation converging towards the centre of the inflation target range at 3% looking at the December statement. It appears that the economic weakness is not yet great enough to get the BCB to signal a January cut. Nevertheless, with headline inflation falling, the real i
December 10, 2025
Fed: Slower 2026 Easing
December 10, 2025 8:34 PM UTC
Powell in the press conference made clear that the Fed is now in a wait and see mood, with policy rates entering a broad measure of neutral policy rates. This means further weakening in labor demand and then consumption would be required to prompt an early 2026 cut. We are less upbeat than the Fed
FOMC eases by 25bps, dots unchanged from September
December 10, 2025 7:21 PM UTC
The FOMC has eased by 25bps as expected to a 3.50-3.75% Fed Funds target range, with two hawkish dissents for no change from Schmid (who dissented in October) and Goolsbee, while Miran again dissented for a steeper 50bps ease. The dots are unchanged from September, implying one 25bps ease in both 20