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July 24, 2026
Trump: Tariffs 2.0
July 24, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
• Replacing section 122 at 10% with section 301 at 10-12.5% is unlikely to have much lasting economic impact in itself. However, the Trump administration are also undertaking section 301 investigation against 16 countries on excess production, with the report and new tariffs expected in A
July 23, 2026
September 25bps ECB Hike: 50% Probability?
July 23, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
· Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,
ECB: September Hike 50% Probability?
July 23, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
· Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,
July 22, 2026
BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises
July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC
• The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he