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June 16, 2026
China: Divided Economy
June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC
· Overall, growth remains unbalanced. Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still. However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption. While the stimu
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jun 16th
June 16, 2026 5:05 AM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised.
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed
June 15, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 16th
June 15, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised.
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Jun 16th
June 15, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised.
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed
Europe Summary and Highlights 15 Jun
June 15, 2026 10:04 AM UTC
Oil cements further pullback to $80~ mark, risk firms and front end yields off
Uncertainties remain, but that is a given
EUR/USD sits at 1.16~, USD/JPY around 160~, key central bank meetings ahead
NOK/SEK sees further pullback, CHF gets through referendum risk-event
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Jun 15-19
June 15, 2026 9:10 AM UTC
US-Iran deal moves forward, albeit with detail still to pin down and ongoing external tensions
Dollar regains some break levels, albeit waiting to hear from the Fed
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks a
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Jun 15-19
June 15, 2026 4:50 AM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
June 12, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jun 15-19
June 12, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, Jun 15-19
June 12, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario. In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts. 10yr
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since