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April 17, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - With the ECB easing as expected, FX movements were modest but riskier currencies managed modest gains. 

FX Weekly Strategy: April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

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Banxico Minutes: Comfortable about the Cuts Amid the Volatility
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes confirm a cautious but steady path toward policy normalization, with the policy rate expected to reach neutral levels (7.00–8.00%) in 2025. While the economy shows signs of deceleration and a negative output gap, inflation continues to ease, nearing historical averages.

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ECB Review: Discussing Policy Restriction No Longer Appropriate
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

A seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut was overshadowed by the ECB’s communication shift about the outlook hereafter, no longer talking about how restrictive policy may be.  This shift is entirely appropriate not least given the manner in which financial conditions are now tightenin

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Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 April
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD was generally slightly weaker through the European morning.

Psychology for major markets April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:04 AM UTC

Riskier currencies recovering modestly as volatility declines

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

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Safe Havens Other Than the USD
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The USD and U.S. Treasuries are currently not acting like safe havens, as the crisis is U.S. centric with the tariff debacle. 10yr Treasuries can regain safe haven status if a U.S. recession occurs, but U.S. equities are still clearly overvalued versus equity and equity-bond metrics.  We prefer Ind

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% & Employment Change +32.2K
Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan's real interest rate remains very low

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:53 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

April 16, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
AUD to be sensitive to March employment data after February dip
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

North American Summary and Highlights 16 April
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - Equities fell on chip export restrictions and comments from Fed’s Powell. This saw the USD weaker. 

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Bank of Canada - Proceeding carefully, but risks still lean towards further easing
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75% as expected. The statement concluded that the BoC will proceed carefully, noting that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war, but it can and must maintain price stability in Canada. While this shows cauti

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 2:58 PM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
AUD to be sensitive to March employment data after February dip
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

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U.S. March Retail Sales - Autos lead bounce ahead of tariffs
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%

Psychology for major markets April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Riskier currencies recovering modestly as volatility declines

Europe Summary and Highlights 16 April
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

The European morning saw a general recovery in riskier currencies, with USD/JPY gaining half a figure to 142.80 and USD/CHF gaining 30 pips to 0.8175.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP little affected by softer CPI
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

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China GDP: Good Q1 Start, but 2025 Could Be 4.2% or 3.3%
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

•    The March data releases from China alongside the Q1 GDP figures show a good start for 2025.  However, underlying domestic demand is soft and Q2 will see a big hit from the U.S. tariffs already introduced.  Our baseline (here) remains for a truce in the coming weeks and a scale back of 1

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Respite Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what happens in the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises are due, albeit now possibly offset somewhat by a fall

Asia Summary and Highlights 16 April
Freemium Article

April 16, 2025 5:16 AM UTC

Global risk sentiment sour with Chinese tough stance against tariff

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 4:35 AM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP may benefit from lower CPI inflation
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

April 15, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 16th
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP may benefit from lower CPI inflation
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

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Argentina: Moving to Phase 3, Bands Flotation
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC

Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400

North American Summary and Highlights 15 April
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - It was and day of limited FX movement, though EUR and CAD were softer after weak data. 

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SARB's Monetary Policy Review Highlights Concerns over the Horizon
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 15, uncertainties about the global economy, trade tensions and blurry domestic outlook have caused the scope for monetary policy easing had narrowed. In its biannual review of its monetary p

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 16th
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP may benefit from lower CPI inflation
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

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Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

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Eurozone Banks Offer ECB More Cause for Concern
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

The ECB can draw comfort from signs that credit demand and supply for EZ households continues to improve.  But the ECB’s latest bank lending survey (BLS) also offers worrying signs in regard to firms as well as questioning the alleged neutrality of the QT program.  It shows a further (admittedly

Europe Summary and Highlights 15 April
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

EUR/USD fell slightly through the European morning, dipping around 20 pips to 1.1340, but GBP/USD gained 30 pips to 1.3240.

Psychology for major markets April 15th
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

USD still weak but risk appetite stabilising

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UK Labor Market – A Tale of Two Labor Markets?
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Policy-making is fraught with difficult decision making at the best of times.  But at present in the UK, such decisions are made all the more problematic given inconsistencies, if not conflicts, in the data backdrop, thereby making any reading of the economy all the more subjective.  Is employment

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 15th
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

GBP may recover against the EUR even if labour market data shows weakness
CAD should hold firm against the USD helped by CPI
EUR/USD strength not supported by yield spreads but could still continue

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Nervous U.S. Long Term Asset Holders
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

   Overall, foreign equity investors can no longer count on U.S. exceptionalism and could face lower long-term corporate earnings growth, which at a minimum will likely slow net inflows.  Bond investors also face ongoing policy volatility, which likely means a need for an extra risk premium – t

Asia Summary and Highlights 15 April
Freemium Article

April 15, 2025 4:31 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Kato says negative impacts of excessive FX volatility
RBA minutes suggest May meeting an opportune time to consider reacting to potential risks

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 15th
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 4:24 AM UTC

GBP may recover against the EUR even if labour market data shows weakness
CAD should hold firm against the USD helped by CPI
EUR/USD strength not supported by yield spreads but could still continue

April 14, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 15th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

GBP may recover against the EUR even if labour market data shows weakness
CAD should hold firm against the USD helped by CPI
EUR/USD strength not supported by yield spreads but could still continue

North American Summary and Highlights 14 April
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 7:26 PM UTC

Overview - Equities saw modest gains while UST yields fell significantly. The USD however was little changed. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 15th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 3:07 PM UTC

GBP may recover against the EUR even if labour market data shows weakness
CAD should hold firm against the USD helped by CPI
EUR/USD strength not supported by yield spreads but could still continue

Psychology for major markets April 14th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

USD still weak but risk appetite stabilising

Europe Summary and Highlights 14 April
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 10:07 AM UTC

The USD was mixed in the European morning, gaining slightly against the JPY and CHF but falling back against the higher yielders as risk sentiment slightly improved.

FX Weekly Strategy: April 14th-18th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

Tariff situation unlikely to change materially
Central bank reactions could be key this week
Hard to reverse loss of confidence in the USD
JPY may recover against the EUR
High yielders can improve if volatility declines

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e April 8th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Netlong JPY positioning extends to new highs, long USD positions elsewhere reduced

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U.S./China High Stakes Poker
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

The economic hit from a hard stop in U.S. imports/exports is too damaging for both sides and our baseline is still for a truce and de-escalation, in the coming weeks. This could be negotiations on a new trade deal with a more moderate reciprocal tariff on both sides and the extra reciprocal tariffs

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 April
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

Trump’s tariff on Chinese smartphones, computers and other tech products reportedly exempted from the 145% tariff 

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, April 14th-18th
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 3:57 AM UTC

Tariff situation unlikely to change materially
Central bank reactions could be key this week
Hard to reverse loss of confidence in the USD
JPY may recover against the EUR
High yielders can improve if volatility declines

April 13, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, April 14th-18th
Paying Article

April 13, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Tariff situation unlikely to change materially
Central bank reactions could be key this week
Hard to reverse loss of confidence in the USD
JPY may recover against the EUR
High yielders can improve if volatility declines

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, April 14th-18th
Paying Article

April 13, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Tariff situation unlikely to change materially
Central bank reactions could be key this week
Hard to reverse loss of confidence in the USD
JPY may recover against the EUR
High yielders can improve if volatility declines

April 12, 2025

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Soaring Inflation Hits Two-Year High in March with 10.3% YoY
Paying Article

April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,