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August 25, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 25 Aug
Freemium Article

August 25, 2025 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally stronger, particularly versus the EUR due to French political concerns. 

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, August 25th-29th
Paying Article

August 25, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

 Powell comments put the USD on the back foot
JPY still has the most potential for long term gains…
…but gains on the crosses are unlikely until risk premia rise
USD/CAD now looks likely to meet selling above 1.39.

Psychology for major markets Aug 25
Paying Article

August 25, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

USD stable but on defensive after Powell signals Sep rate cut 

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Jackson Hole: Fed/ECB/BOJ and BOE on Labor Markets
Paying Article

August 25, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

Fed Powell focused on the cyclical softening of employment to back a more dovish undertone.  In contrast other central bank heads focused on structural labor market issues.  While ECB Lagarde was pleased with the post COVID EZ picture, current economic softness still leaves us forecasting two furt

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 Aug
Paying Article

August 25, 2025 5:21 AM UTC

USD/JPY rebound after Friday's slump

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, August 25th-29th
Paying Article

August 25, 2025 3:46 AM UTC

 Powell comments put the USD on the back foot
JPY still has the most potential for long term gains…
…but gains on the crosses are unlikely until risk premia rise
USD/CAD now looks likely to meet selling above 1.39.

August 24, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, August 25th-29th
Paying Article

August 24, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

 Powell comments put the USD on the back foot
JPY still has the most potential for long term gains…
…but gains on the crosses are unlikely until risk premia rise
USD/CAD now looks likely to meet selling above 1.39.

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, August 25th-29th
Paying Article

August 24, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

 Powell comments put the USD on the back foot
JPY still has the most potential for long term gains…
…but gains on the crosses are unlikely until risk premia rise
USD/CAD now looks likely to meet selling above 1.39.

August 22, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: August 25th-29th
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 3:11 PM UTC

 Powell comments put the USD on the back foot
JPY still has the most potential for long term gains…
…but gains on the crosses are unlikely until risk premia rise
USD/CAD now looks likely to meet selling above 1.39.

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Fed Powell: Signals September Cut
Freemium Article

August 22, 2025 2:35 PM UTC

Fed Chair Powell spent the first 10 minutes at Jackson hole reviewing current data and discussing the policy stance.  Powell clearly signaled a September cut, given downside risks to employment after the July employment report revisions.  However, Powell did not signal whether the move will be 25b

Europe Summary and Highlights 22 August
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

EUR/USD edged higher through the European morning, rising around 15 pips to 1.16. 

Psychology for major markets Aug 22
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 9:57 AM UTC

USD firmer after strong US PMI ahead of Powell speech

FX Daily Strategy: N America, August 22nd
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 8:46 AM UTC

Powell the market focus on Friday
Risks to the USD upside given strong data
Market pricing of aggressive Fed easing also suggests little USD downside risk

Asia Summary and Highlights 22 Aug
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 4:32 AM UTC

Nvidia Orders Halt to H20 Production After China Directive Against Purchases
Japan National headline CPI 3.1% y/y, so as core but core-core 3.4% 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, August 22nd
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 4:18 AM UTC

Powell the market focus on Friday
Risks to the USD upside given strong data
Market pricing of aggressive Fed easing also suggests little USD downside risk

August 21, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, August 22nd
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

EUR slightly firmer after better PMI
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 22nd
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

EUR slightly firmer after better PMI
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move

Europe Summary and Highlights 21 August
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 10:17 AM UTC

European currencies were generally slightly firmer through the European morning, helped by better than expected PMIs. 

Psychology for major markets Aug 21
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

EUR and GBP firmer helped by better PMIs

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Eurozone: ECB Feels it Has More Reason to ‘Wait and See’?
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 10:02 AM UTC

To suggest that recent EZ real economy indicators, such as today’s August PMI flashes, have been positive would be an exaggeration.  But, at the same time, the data (while mixed and showing conflicts - Figure 1) have not been poor enough to alter a probable current ECB Council mindset that the ec

FX Daily Strategy: N America, August 21st
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

EUR slightly firmer after better PMI
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 Aug
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

Relative quiet Thursday

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, August 21st
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 4:05 AM UTC

EUR may slip if Eurozone PMIs suffer from EU/US trade deal
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move

August 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, August 21st
Paying Article

August 20, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

EUR may slip if Eurozone PMIs suffer from EU/US trade deal
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 21st
Paying Article

August 20, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

EUR may slip if Eurozone PMIs suffer from EU/US trade deal
USD could be vulnerable to gains in continuing claims
USD may also weaken as US PMIs likely to fall
USD/JPY remains the main candidate for a big move