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February 21, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

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Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC

The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB.   The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 February
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 4:13 AM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

February 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

North American Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited significant news, the USD was generally softer, particularly in North America. 

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Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.

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Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC

Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

Europe Summary and Highlights 20 February
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 11:30 AM UTC

The USD was slightly weaker against the riskier currencies in a quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 11:01 AM UTC

USD stabilising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:31 AM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 7:14 AM UTC

Australia January 2025 unemployment rate 4.1%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

February 19, 2025

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Mexico: Tariffs and Growth Issues Could Impose Fiscal Difficulties
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 10:20 PM UTC

Mexico aims for fiscal consolidation in 2025, relying on revenue growth while freezing most expenditures. However, weak growth could undermine this strategy. Authorities expect 2–3% GDP growth, but our forecast is 1.6%, with a recession risk. A less integrated U.S.-Mexico trade relationship, parti

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 20th
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

North American Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 8:38 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly firmer, but ended off its highs after the FOMC minutes were digested. 

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FOMC Minutes from January 29 - No rush to ease, but not hawkish
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 7:59 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from January 29 showed agreement to hold policy steady, and that further progress was needed before additional policy adjustments were made. High uncertainty was seen as making a careful approach appropriate, but the minutes contained few shocks, in a market that appeared to be braced f

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 20th
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

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U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors?
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

·        Tariff reality in the spring and summer will likely be both tariff threats to negotiate trade deals and permanently higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally to raise revenue for the U.S. government – along Peter Navarro guidance to Trump.  The macro effects of this cou

Psychology for major markets February 19th
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

USD stabilising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise, GBP rises on employment and CPI data

Europe Summary and Highlights 19 February
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through the European morning.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 19th
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 10:07 AM UTC

RBNZ cut 50bps, still scope for AUD/NZD gains
UK CPI may tick higher, but possibly less than expected
EUR/GBP still looks stretched near 0.83
USD may rally a little on FOMC minutes with the CAD maybe the most vulnerable

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UK CPI Review: Inflation Jumps and Broadly So But Still Some Promising Wage Signs?
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 February
Freemium Article

February 19, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBNZ cut by 50bps as expected
BOJ's policy board member Takata says must hike rate more if economy moves in line with BOJ forecasts
Trump says U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips by April 2

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 19th
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 5:08 AM UTC

RBNZ cut 50bps, still scope for AUD/NZD gains
UK CPI may tick higher, but possibly less than expected
EUR/GBP still looks stretched near 0.83
USD may rally a little on FOMC minutes with the CAD maybe the most vulnerable

February 18, 2025

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Brazil: Activity Strong in Q4 but Some Marginal Deceleration
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 10:04 PM UTC

We see Brazilian economy growing 1.0% in Q4 and is expected to expand 3.6% in 2024, surpassing initial forecasts. However, monthly data shows signs of weakness, with contractions in services, industry, and retail trade in in December. Despite tight monetary policy (13.25%), the expected slowdown has

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 19th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

RBNZ likely to cut 50bps, still scope for AUD/NZD gains
UK CPI may tick higher, but possibly less than expected
EUR/GBP still looks stretched near 0.83
USD may rally a little on FOMC minutes with the CAD maybe the most vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 8:28 PM UTC

Overview - In generally subdued trading the USD was modestly firmer overall. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 19th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 4:02 PM UTC

RBNZ likely to cut 50bps, still scope for AUD/NZD gains
UK CPI may tick higher, but possibly less than expected
EUR/GBP still looks stretched near 0.83
USD may rally a little on FOMC minutes with the CAD maybe the most vulnerable

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Europe: Economic Consequences of Likely Defence Build-Up
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 3:29 PM UTC

As Europe is forced to consider a massive and rapid ramp up to its relatively mediocre defence spending (Figure 1) as it contemplates a reduction in military support from the US, key questions emerge as the economic effect(s).  Will it boost or inhibit growth, add to inflation, and how will/should

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U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:20 PM UTC

If the Fed convince the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount in the next two quarters and then swing to a small premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (Figure 1).  10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest

Europe Summary and Highlights 18 February
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 11:04 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw USD/JPY fall a modest 10 pips to 151.75, USD/CAD down 10 pips to 1.4190 and USD/CHF down 10 pips to 0.9010, but there was little other net movement. 

Psychology for major markets February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 10:59 AM UTC

USD stablising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise, GBP fails to hold onto post-employment data gain

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 10:06 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP firmer after labour market data
SEK stays strong after CPI
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

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UK: Mixed Labor Market Signals – Yet Again
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks.  Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

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RBA Review: It has begun
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 4:47 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th cut rates on by 25bps to 4.1% and suggest data dependency going forward

February 17, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Psychology for major markets February 17th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

USD generally soft as risk sentiment remains positive while strong Japanese data pulls USD/JPY lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 February
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw generally little FX action, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD all little changed on the morning, reversing a small USD rally seen in the middle of the session.

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Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

·       President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.

FX Weekly Strategy: February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e February 11th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

Net short CAD, NZD and CHF positions remain high, net JPY positioning starting to move significantly long

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 February
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:54 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April