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April 27, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels
April 25, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
Canada’s election takes place on Monday. A victory for the ruling Liberals looks likely, but polls are close enough to mean that a hung parliament or even a majority for the opposition Conservatives, while unlikely, is not to be ruled out. Should the Conservatives spring a surprise, a more concili
April 25, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels
April 25, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the policy rate stable on April 25 for the fourth consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target
April 25, 2025 7:09 AM UTC
On balance, our baseline still remains a U.S./China trade deal (55-60%) being reached, given Trump deal instincts; China desire for a deal and the economic disadvantage of an economic cold war to the U.S. when it is trying to reset trade with all countries. Timeline is Q4 2025 or H1 2026. An al
April 24, 2025 8:39 AM UTC
EZ HICP inflation is likely to fall back to the 2% target in flash April data, this six-month low would largely reflect a fall in fuel prices, but with services largely consolidating the clear fall seen last time around (Figure 1). All of which would mean a stable core reading of 2.4% but where th
April 24, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
Some portfolios rotations towards EM assets will likely be evident, as we see the USD decline is now extending and broadening. However, flows will likely be selective, both given underwhelming EM performance in the last 5-10 years and the uncertainty over how much Trump will reduce reciprocal tari
April 23, 2025 9:00 PM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 23, 2025 5:57 PM UTC
Brazil’s fiscal data shows slight improvement, with a 0.1% primary deficit by February and a 2024 deficit in line with targets, excluding flood aid. The 2025 goal is a 0% deficit, but structural issues remain. Recent gains stem from reduced court-ordered payments and delayed hiring. However, risin
April 23, 2025 3:31 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average, with initial claims showing no signs of labor market weakness. We expect unemployment to correct lower to 4.1% after a March rise to 4.2%, and an in line with trend 0.3% incr
April 23, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar
April 23, 2025 9:56 AM UTC
Amid what are now an ever broader array if indicators suggesting that the economy is stagnating, if not contracting the BoE has the opportunity to address this risks with three separate MPC speeches due later today. Chief Economist Pill, Governor Bailey and Deputy Breeden can address the extent to
April 23, 2025 9:18 AM UTC
Continuing a series of upside surprises, EZ GDP overshot both consensus and ECB expectations in Q4), albeit only after what was a cumulative 0.2 ppt upward revisions compared to the flash. We see a further rise in Q1 data (Figure 1), partly reflecting recent m/m increases in both manufacturing and s
April 23, 2025 8:58 AM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC
A deteriorating economic; volatile financial markets and weakening approval ratings are all putting pressure on the Trump administration to do trade deals. However, Trump instincts means he still likes tariffs, while negotiations will not be quick with China restraints and non-tariffs list desired
April 23, 2025 4:24 AM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 22, 2025 9:00 PM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 22, 2025 4:32 PM UTC
Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline. The Atlanta Fed nowcast shows an annualized fall of 2.2% largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked such a
April 22, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem
April 22, 2025 9:26 AM UTC
Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off
April 22, 2025 7:30 AM UTC
Official holdings of U.S. Treasuries show a mixed picture with China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia well off peak holdings. Two drivers of some of these country flows are the peak in global central bank FX reserve holdings in 2021 and an increased holdings of other currencies in the last decade. Neverth
April 22, 2025 4:08 AM UTC
Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off
April 20, 2025 9:00 PM UTC
Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off
April 20, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off