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October 14, 2026
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 14, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?
October 14, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649
U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?
October 14, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649
Europe Summary and Highlights 14 Oct
October 14, 2026 10:08 AM UTC
EUR/GBP nudges lows, politics/fiscal sentiment still tipping back to the UK, even as BoE sceptical over tightening priced in
AUD/USD enjoys technical bounce from good support
Yields remain off highs, USD levels as market waits for US CPI prints
October 13, 2026
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
October 13, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
October 12, 2026
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:04 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - euro shorts ramp up (though not extreme big picture)
October 12, 2026 7:46 AM UTC
IMM data confirms the jump into euro shorts, largest negative position since Feb-20, playing to current consolidation of fast run
That said, only around -1 stdev, not super extreme by past standards (Apr2015 for instance got 2.2x more short)
Dollar overall is back out to the recent overall net long 'w
China’s Quite 2nd Tier Banking Clean Up
October 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The quite though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply. Equity capital injections to 8 large state banks is
