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April 27, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, April 28th - May 2nd
Paying Article

April 27, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels

April 25, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 25 April
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a fairly quiet day’s trading, the main move was a bounce in EUR/JPY. 

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Canada Election: Liberal Victory Likely, Stable Policy Expected
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Canada’s election takes place on Monday. A victory for the ruling Liberals looks likely, but polls are close enough to mean that a hung parliament or even a majority for the opposition Conservatives, while unlikely, is not to be ruled out. Should the Conservatives spring a surprise, a more concili

FX Weekly Strategy: April 28th - May 2nd
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels

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CBR Continues to Keep Key Rate Constant at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the policy rate stable on April 25 for the fourth consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target

Europe Summary and Highlights 25 April
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 10:18 AM UTC

The USD was mixed in a fairly quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 10:17 AM UTC

Quieter markets as progress on trade deals awaited

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

JPY might struggle despite rise in Tokyo CPI
GBP has scope to recover modestly
USD may struggle if University of Michigan confidence weakens again

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U.S/China Trade Standoff: Odds Remain Towards Truce
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 7:09 AM UTC

  On balance, our baseline still remains a U.S./China trade deal (55-60%) being reached, given Trump deal instincts; China desire for a deal and the economic disadvantage of an economic cold war to the U.S. when it is trying to reset trade with all countries.  Timeline is Q4 2025 or H1 2026. An al

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 April
Freemium Article

April 25, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

Japan April Tokyo CPI Above 3%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 3:45 AM UTC

JPY might struggle despite rise in Tokyo CPI
GBP has scope to recover modestly
USD may struggle if University of Michigan confidence weakens again

April 24, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 25th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO stronger than expected
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

North American Summary and Highlights 24 April
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 7:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weaker in Europe but more stable in North America, if with some late losses.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 25th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO stronger than expected
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

Psychology for major markets April 24th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

Quieter markets as progres on trade deals awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 24 April
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD was generally weaker through the European morning.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 24th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 9:17 AM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO stronger than expected
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

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EZ HICP Preview (May 2): Headline Lower Again But Mainly Energy?
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 8:39 AM UTC

EZ HICP inflation is likely to fall back to the 2% target in flash April data, this six-month low would largely reflect a fall in fuel prices, but with services largely consolidating the clear fall seen last time around (Figure 1).  All of which would mean a stable core reading of 2.4% but where th

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USD Rebalancing: Some to EM?
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

Some portfolios rotations towards EM assets will likely be evident, as we see the USD decline is now extending and broadening.  However, flows will likely be selective, both given underwhelming EM performance in the last 5-10 years and the uncertainty over how much Trump will reduce reciprocal tari

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 April
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 4:39 AM UTC

Japan economy minister Akazawa to visit the U.S. for tariff talks from April 30
Trump admin told Japan it cannot give Japan special tariff treatment

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 24th
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 4:09 AM UTC

Scope for USD recovery to extend on solid durable orders data
German IFO to dip, but may be less weak than feared
USD recovery still only likely to be short term
CHF can weaken further against the NOK

April 23, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 24th
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

North American Summary and Highlights 23 April
Freemium Article

April 23, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced supported by a firmer S and P manufacturing PMI. Equities were stronger but moved off their highs after comments from Bessent on US-China trade. 

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Brazil: Fiscal Result Improves but Structural Changes Remains in Doubt
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 5:57 PM UTC

Brazil’s fiscal data shows slight improvement, with a 0.1% primary deficit by February and a 2024 deficit in line with targets, excluding flood aid. The 2025 goal is a 0% deficit, but structural issues remain. Recent gains stem from reduced court-ordered payments and delayed hiring. However, risin

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Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few signals for labor market weakness
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 3:31 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average, with initial claims showing no signs of labor market weakness. We expect unemployment to correct lower to 4.1% after a March rise to 4.2%, and an in line with trend 0.3% incr

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 24th
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

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South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar

Europe Summary and Highlights 23 April
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

The EUR was generally firmer through the European morning. 

Psychology for major markets April 23rd
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

USD bounces as Trump removes threat to fire Powell 

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BoE vs the (Weaker) Data
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 9:56 AM UTC

Amid what are now an ever broader array if indicators suggesting that the economy is stagnating, if not contracting the BoE has the opportunity to address this risks with three separate MPC speeches due later today.  Chief Economist Pill, Governor Bailey and Deputy Breeden can address the extent to

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Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): The Calm Before the Storm that Surveys May Be Flagging?
Freemium Article

April 23, 2025 9:18 AM UTC

Continuing a series of upside surprises, EZ GDP overshot both consensus and ECB expectations in Q4), albeit only after what was a cumulative 0.2 ppt upward revisions compared to the flash. We see a further rise in Q1 data (Figure 1), partly reflecting recent m/m increases in both manufacturing and s

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

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Trump Under Pressure
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

A deteriorating economic; volatile financial markets and weakening approval ratings are all putting pressure on the Trump administration to do trade deals.  However, Trump instincts means he still likes tariffs, while negotiations will not be quick with China restraints and non-tariffs list desired

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 April
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 5:09 AM UTC

Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell
Trump says he is going to be very nice to China
Risk asset broadly upbeat from Trump's remark

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 4:24 AM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

April 22, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

North American Summary and Highlights 22 April
Freemium Article

April 22, 2025 7:42 PM UTC

Overview - The USD erased Monday’s losses assisted by Treasury Secretary Bessent looking for de-escalation with China. 

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Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - A modest decline, but less steep than trade data implies
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline. The Atlanta Fed nowcast shows an annualized fall of 2.2% largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked such a

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

PMIs expected to fall, but consensus is for the decline to be modest
USD might rally modestly on consensus data, but risk of bigger decline on weak numbers
Underlying USD negative tone remains hard to oppose given history of Trump’s first term
Equity market risks on the downside suggest JPY risks rem

Psychology for major markets April 22nd
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

USD remains under pressure as Trump attacks Powell

Europe Summary and Highlights 22 April
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD recovered a little through the European morning.

FX Weekly Strategy: April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 9:26 AM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

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Foreign Official U.S. Treasury Holders: The Kindness of Strangers
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

Official holdings of U.S. Treasuries show a mixed picture with China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia well off peak holdings. Two drivers of some of these country flows are the peak in global central bank FX reserve holdings in 2021 and an increased holdings of other currencies in the last decade.  Neverth

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e April 15th
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Net long JPY positioning extends to new highs, long USD positions elsewhere reduced

Asia Summary and Highlights 22 April
Freemium Article

April 22, 2025 4:30 AM UTC

Japan economy min Akazawa confirms agriculture will not be compromised in US tariff talks
Japan's Finance Minister to meet with US Treas Sec Bessent to discuss FX matters

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 4:08 AM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

April 21, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 21 April
Freemium Article

April 21, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally weaker as Trump continued to fuel fears over Fed independence. 

April 20, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 20, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 20, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

April 17, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - With the ECB easing as expected, FX movements were modest but riskier currencies managed modest gains.