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February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025
February 20, 2025 10:31 AM UTC
Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope
February 20, 2025 7:12 AM UTC
Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope
February 19, 2025 10:20 PM UTC
Mexico aims for fiscal consolidation in 2025, relying on revenue growth while freezing most expenditures. However, weak growth could undermine this strategy. Authorities expect 2–3% GDP growth, but our forecast is 1.6%, with a recession risk. A less integrated U.S.-Mexico trade relationship, parti
February 19, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope
February 19, 2025 7:59 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from January 29 showed agreement to hold policy steady, and that further progress was needed before additional policy adjustments were made. High uncertainty was seen as making a careful approach appropriate, but the minutes contained few shocks, in a market that appeared to be braced f
February 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope
February 19, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
· Tariff reality in the spring and summer will likely be both tariff threats to negotiate trade deals and permanently higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally to raise revenue for the U.S. government – along Peter Navarro guidance to Trump. The macro effects of this cou
February 19, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking. Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise
February 19, 2025 5:32 AM UTC
The RBNZ cut by 50bps as expected
BOJ's policy board member Takata says must hike rate more if economy moves in line with BOJ forecasts
Trump says U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips by April 2
February 18, 2025 10:04 PM UTC
We see Brazilian economy growing 1.0% in Q4 and is expected to expand 3.6% in 2024, surpassing initial forecasts. However, monthly data shows signs of weakness, with contractions in services, industry, and retail trade in in December. Despite tight monetary policy (13.25%), the expected slowdown has
February 18, 2025 3:29 PM UTC
As Europe is forced to consider a massive and rapid ramp up to its relatively mediocre defence spending (Figure 1) as it contemplates a reduction in military support from the US, key questions emerge as the economic effect(s). Will it boost or inhibit growth, add to inflation, and how will/should
February 18, 2025 1:20 PM UTC
If the Fed convince the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount in the next two quarters and then swing to a small premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (Figure 1). 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest
February 18, 2025 7:56 AM UTC
There is little in the latest UK labor market numbers that will ease any concerns of the BoE policy hawks. Admittedly, inactivity and vacancies fell, both suggesting some easing in the labor market, although the former is as suspect as the (still apparently rising) ONS employment numbers due to qu
February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC
· President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.
February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,