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January 13, 2025

Psychology for major markets January 13th
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January 13, 2025 11:20 AM UTC

USD at high levels, needs strong employment report to sustain them

FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
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January 13, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure, but studies oversold
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January 13, 2025 8:32 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above 1.2300 has been pushed back from beneath the 1.2352 weekly low of 2 January

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e January 7th
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January 13, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Net short CAD position remains high, NZD shorts also extended

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Leaning lower from 1.1090/1.1100 highs
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January 13, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade below the 1.1090/1.1100 resistance

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Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
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January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

   A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view.  Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response.  A huge AI mis

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD, JPY former, AUD looks oversold
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January 13, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

USD and JPY benefit as equities soften but equity weakness is mild and AUD looks undervalued

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending losses
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January 13, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend break of the 94.18/93.50 support last week through the 192.00 congestion

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Under pressure, room to 96.00/95.52 support
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January 13, 2025 7:37 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend losses through the 97.00 level following rejection from the 99.00/99.42 resistance last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating below 7.3680/7.3700 highs
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January 13, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation within a narrow range below strong resistance at the 7.3680/7.3700 highs

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending sharp gains
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January 13, 2025 6:01 AM UTC

Sharp gapped up opening above the 86.0000 figure has seen extension to reach fresh all-time high at 86.4000

Chart USD/MYR Update: Consolidating, room for higher later
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January 13, 2025 5:15 AM UTC

Break above the 4.4880 resistance has seen gains to retest the 4.5135/4.4165 highs

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 January
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January 13, 2025 4:26 AM UTC

USD up, risk sours

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 13th-17th
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January 13, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
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January 13, 2025 3:42 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 16059 low and break the 16259 resistance opens up the 16304 high of December to retest

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating test of 34.79 resistance, scope for break
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January 13, 2025 3:26 AM UTC

Break above the 34.68 extending gains to retest the 34.79 resistance

USD/JPY flows: Holiday Gains
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January 13, 2025 3:18 AM UTC

JPY gains on a Japanese holiday

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending bounce from 1446.00 support
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January 13, 2025 3:13 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1446.00 support through the 1466.00 resistance see pressure returning to the 1474.00/1478.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Pressuring 1.3750/65 resistance
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January 13, 2025 2:50 AM UTC

Break to fresh high above 1.3730 has seen extension to retest the 1.3750/1.3765, October 2023 year highs

AUD/USD flows: Private Inflation Data Higher
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January 13, 2025 1:58 AM UTC

Australian December private inflation data 0.6% m/m & 2.6% y/y

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Under pressure, 160.90 support within reach
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January 13, 2025 1:23 AM UTC

Losses through the 162.00 level extend drop from the 164.55 high to reach 161.21 low on Friday

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy around the 158.00 level
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January 13, 2025 1:02 AM UTC

Settling back from test of the 158.85 resistance

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending losses, focus on .5512/.5470 lows
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January 13, 2025 12:44 AM UTC

Prices remain under pressure and break of the .5565 support further extend losses from the September high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for lower to .6100 next
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January 13, 2025 12:29 AM UTC

Saw break of the .6170 support on Friday to reach fresh low at .6140

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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January 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the USD only rebound fiercely after the stronger than expected U.S. NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.24%, THB 0.14%, MYR 0.12% and IDR by 0.09%; the largest loser are KRW by 0.79%, SGD 0.23%, INR 0.13%, CNH 0.1&, TWD 0.08%, HKD

January 12, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 13th-17th
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January 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 13th-17th
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January 12, 2025 6:00 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

January 10, 2025

Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Industrial Production - Bounce in aircraft to lead rise
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January 10, 2025 5:32 PM UTC

We expect gains of 0.5% in both industrial production and manufacturing output in December, likely to be led by a rebound in aircraft after three straight declines caused by a strike at Boeing. The strike as resolved in early November but output failed to recover in that month, making a bounce due.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Edging higher in range
Freemium Article

January 10, 2025 5:03 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt consolidation above support at 1.4400

FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
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January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
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January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.

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Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
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January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

USD, JPY flows: USD weaker as equities fall
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January 10, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Rising inflation expectations in Universiyt of Michigan survey support higher yields and weight on equities, supporting the JPY

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UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?
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January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,

U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
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January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending multi-year bear trend
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January 10, 2025 2:51 PM UTC

The anticipated break below the 0.6170 year low of October 2022 has bounced from 0.6140~

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Drifting lower
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January 10, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a further drift lower

Canada December Employment - Strong job growth but again flattered by the public sector
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January 10, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Canada has followed a healthy 50.5k increase in November employment with a substantially stronger 90.9k increase in December, though the acceleration in full time work to 57.5k from 54.2k was marginal. While some of the detail is less impressive, the data suggests the economy is gaining momentum, as

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sentiment improving in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
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January 10, 2025 2:18 PM UTC

Cautious trade has spiked higher to the 158.85 weekly high of 16 July

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Mexico CPI Review: Downtrend Continues
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January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci

U.S. December Employment - Charts and table
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January 10, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains
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January 10, 2025 2:02 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a sharp break higher

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U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still
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January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
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January 10, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

US employment report generally strong. USD up 0.5% across the board except against the CAD as the Canadian employment report shows similar strength

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UK CPI Preview (Jan 15): More Mixed Inflation Signals
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January 10, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns.  Admittedly, markets are looking for the headline rate to nudge up a notch, although we look for a st

Psychology for major markets January 10th
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January 10, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD at high levels, needs strong employment report to sustain them

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India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
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January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

January 10, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

2025 First round of Fed Speaker's Remark
December  FOMC Minutes Moving towards a more careful approach
U.S. December Employment Closer to solid underlying trend
Our thoughts on Trump Policies 
Japan Wage Continue to Grow at 3%

FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 10th
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 9:57 AM UTC

US employment report to dominate
Strong numbers may be needed to sustain USD strength
CAD had some upside scope after recent losses
NOK/SEK remains undervalued

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade to give way to fresh losses
Freemium Article

January 10, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious