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January 13, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
January 13, 2025 9:46 AM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view. Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response. A huge AI mis
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 13th-17th
January 13, 2025 4:00 AM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
January 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the USD only rebound fiercely after the stronger than expected U.S. NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.24%, THB 0.14%, MYR 0.12% and IDR by 0.09%; the largest loser are KRW by 0.79%, SGD 0.23%, INR 0.13%, CNH 0.1&, TWD 0.08%, HKD
January 12, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 13th-17th
January 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 13th-17th
January 12, 2025 6:00 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
January 10, 2025
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Industrial Production - Bounce in aircraft to lead rise
January 10, 2025 5:32 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.5% in both industrial production and manufacturing output in December, likely to be led by a rebound in aircraft after three straight declines caused by a strike at Boeing. The strike as resolved in early November but output failed to recover in that month, making a bounce due.
FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.
Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue
UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?
January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,
U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.
Canada December Employment - Strong job growth but again flattered by the public sector
January 10, 2025 2:26 PM UTC
Canada has followed a healthy 50.5k increase in November employment with a substantially stronger 90.9k increase in December, though the acceleration in full time work to 57.5k from 54.2k was marginal. While some of the detail is less impressive, the data suggests the economy is gaining momentum, as
Mexico CPI Review: Downtrend Continues
January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci
U.S. December Employment - Case for a January FOMC pause looks stronger still
January 10, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
December’s non-farm payroll with a 256k increase, 223k in the private sector, is significantly higher than expected and suggests the economy has significant momentum entering 2025, adding to an already strong case for a Fed pause in January. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% but a 0.
UK CPI Preview (Jan 15): More Mixed Inflation Signals
January 10, 2025 11:55 AM UTC
Amid current bond market ructions, which some are suggesting reflects stagflation worries, we think that looming December UK CPI data may help dispel some of the inflation aspect of those concerns. Admittedly, markets are looking for the headline rate to nudge up a notch, although we look for a st
India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months.