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August 25, 2025
U.S. July New Home Sales - Trend has little direction, prices weak
August 25, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
July new home sales at 652k are on the firm side of expectations and down 0.6% from June only because June was revised up to 656k from 627k, now up 4.1% rather than 0.6%. Trend still looks fairly stable and downside risks are fading as prospects of Fed easing increase.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to return to normal, trend marginally positive
August 25, 2025 12:33 PM UTC
We expect July durable goods orders to fall by 4.5%, extending a 9.4% decline in June, but still not quite fully reversing a 16.5% surge in May. Aircraft will continue to lead the moves. Ex transport we expect a 0.1% increase, in line with a trend that is now marginally positive.
Jackson Hole: Fed/ECB/BOJ and BOE on Labor Markets
August 25, 2025 9:02 AM UTC
Fed Powell focused on the cyclical softening of employment to back a more dovish undertone. In contrast other central bank heads focused on structural labor market issues. While ECB Lagarde was pleased with the post COVID EZ picture, current economic softness still leaves us forecasting two furt
Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour
August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC
India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri