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February 28, 2025

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
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February 28, 2025 3:22 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low through the 34.00 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Break to fresh year high
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February 28, 2025 3:09 AM UTC

 Break above resistance at the 16384/16400 area has seen follow-through above the 2024 year high at 16474

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending sharp rally
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February 28, 2025 2:47 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break of the 1440.00 level to retest strong resistance at the 1455.00/1460.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending bounce from 1.3312 low
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February 28, 2025 2:29 AM UTC

Sharply higher through resistance at the 1.3420/1.3460 previous lows to extend gaing from the 1.3312 low

USD/JPY flows: Dragged by sentiment
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February 28, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Japanese labour unions push for record wage hike amid rising costs
Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
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February 28, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 156.16/00 support has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure to extend the broader losses from October high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend consolidation above 148.56 low
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February 28, 2025 12:57 AM UTC

Drifting narrowly in range as prices extend consolidation above the 148.56 low

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 28, 2025 12:46 AM UTC

Break of the .5700 congestion extending losses to pressure strong support at the .5622/.5600 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6250/33 support
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February 28, 2025 12:21 AM UTC

Break of the .6300 level has seen sharp losses to reach support at the .6250/33 area

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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February 28, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as risk sentiment continues to tread lower on U.S. tariff concern and soft global outlook. The biggest loser is KRW by 0.92%, followed by SGD 0.71%, THB 0.61%, CNH and IDR 0.49%, CNY 0.39%, MYR 0.27%, TWD 0.08%, HKD 0.04% and PHP 0.02%

February 27, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

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Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
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February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
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February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
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February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
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February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
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February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 27, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6300 has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
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February 27, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

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Argentina: Recovery Complete?
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February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation 

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
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February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

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ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
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February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
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February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Psychology for major markets February 27th
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February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

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Country Risk in MENA
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February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
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February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025
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February 27, 2025 9:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Range-bound above 188.07 support
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February 27, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

No change, with prices confined within a narrow range above the 188.07 support

CAD flows: CAD looks vulnerable
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February 27, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

CAD looks vulnerable with tariff threat looming

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Weighing on the 94.00/93.60 support
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February 27, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 94.30 low extend losses to reach 94.00/93.60 support

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
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February 27, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

 Little change, with prices confined to range above the 1.1050 support and tracing out a bear flag from the 1.1150/1.1180 highs

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending gains
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February 27, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

Break above the 1.6600/33 resistance see prices extending bounce from the 1.6355 low of last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2260 low
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February 27, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.2260 low as prices unwind oversold daily studies

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 February
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February 27, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent
The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 86.4600 low
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February 27, 2025 5:25 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 86.4600 low has seen rebound to regain the 87.0000 level

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 27th
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February 27, 2025 5:07 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Chart USD/MYR Update: Higher in consolidation from 4.4000 level
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February 27, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

Turned up from the 4.4000 level to open up room for retest of the 4.4540 resistance

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Sour
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February 27, 2025 4:23 AM UTC

The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending bounce
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February 27, 2025 3:28 AM UTC

 Extending bounce from the 16169 low to reach strong resistance at the 16384/16400 high and congestion area

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending bounce from 33.37 low
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February 27, 2025 3:18 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating recent movement
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February 27, 2025 2:35 AM UTC

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending bounce from 1425.00 low
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February 27, 2025 2:17 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1425.00 low as daily studies unwind oversold readings to correct losses from the 1472.00, 3 February high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Room for stronger corrective bounce
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February 27, 2025 2:05 AM UTC

Bounce from 1.3312 low has seen test of the 1.3400 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but room for lower
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February 27, 2025 1:12 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 156.16/00 support as prices settled into consolidation above the 155.80 low of last week

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range-bound above 148.56 low
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February 27, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above Tuesday's 148.56 low

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure, room for deeper pullback
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February 27, 2025 12:45 AM UTC

Consolidation below the .5773 resistance has given way to deeper pullback to break support the .5722/00 congestion area