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November 01, 2024

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Brazil: Credit is Resilient, but Some Deceleration is Expected
Freemium Article

November 1, 2024 8:58 PM UTC

In early 2024, Brazil's credit market saw an 8.2% growth, supported by easing inflation and favorable monetary policy. Both earmarked and non-earmarked credit contributed, with household credit outpacing enterprise lending. Delinquency rates remain manageable at 3.8%. However, deceleration is expect

Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. October Housing Starts and Permits - Little change seen with restraint from weather
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC

We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed. 

Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Industrial Production - Continued restraint from Boeing strike and hurricanes
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 5:39 PM UTC

We expect unchanged October industrial production with a 0.3% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing will be a continued negative while Hurricane Milton is another downside risk. However after September data in which the Boeing strike and two hurricanes were both seen as having reduced output

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced beneath current year highs
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend choppy trade beneath strong resistance at the 1.3947 current year high of 5 August

FX Weekly Strategy: November 4th-8th
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 4:11 PM UTC

Trump victory close to priced in but without a Republican clean sweep
USD likely to benefit if Republicans win the House…
…while Harris win would lead to USD dip
GBP to suffer further if BoE cut rates

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FOMC Preview for November 7: A 25bps Easing, Outlook Unclear
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2

U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Weakest since July 2023, but not a sharp slide
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

October’s ISM manufacturing index at 46.5 from 47.2 is the weakest since July 2023 if only a modest deterioration. We doubt the Boeing strike had a major impact on this report which is less sensitive to issues in one large company than are aggregate measures of output.

U.S. October Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Choppy trade under pressure
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

The fresh break below 104.00 has bounced smartly from 103.70~

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U.S. October Employment - Special factors add to weakness, but trend looks less strong after revisions
Freemium Article

November 1, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes, though probably also in part due to a correction from an above trend September, and negative revisions make the trend going into this report less strong than it was.

USD flows: USD generally weaker after employment report
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

US employment report clearly on the weak side with downward revisions to August and September as well as the weaker (but weather and strike affected) October number. USD risks on the downside but major move unlikely ahead of the election 

Psychology for major markets November 1st
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 11:09 AM UTC

EUR rangy, JPY showing mild recovery but US events now taking centre stage

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 1st
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 9:55 AM UTC

Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Cautious trade - daily studies leaning lower
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 9:50 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath resistance at the 166.00 break level

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/JPY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 8:52 AM UTC

The anticipated test below support at the 152.00 break level has bounced from 151.75/80

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

November 1, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

The test of support at the 1.2865 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a bounce

CHF flows: CHF falls on weaker CPI
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

CHF falls sharply as October CPI comes in below consensus, but declines unlikely to extend far ahead of the US election

October 31, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia November 1st
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

October 31, 2024 5:37 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

Chart USD/CAD Update: Pressuring current year highs
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 4:56 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade beneath strong resistance at the 1.3947 current year high of 5 August

FX Daily Strategy: APAC November 1st
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 4:07 PM UTC

Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further

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Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Hurricanes and strike to deliver below trend month
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp

GBP flows: GBP slumps as gilt yields rise sharply
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

GBP falling sharply in an echo of the post-Truss budget reaction of 2022. Hard to oppose GBP weakness. 

Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Slightly less weak
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated break below 104.00

Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.

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U.S. September Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices, Q3 Employment Cost Index, Weekly Initial Claims - Mostly solid
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

September’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q3 totals having been seen in the GDP report.  As in Q3, growth in spending, of 0.5%, exceeds a 0.3% rise in income while core PCE prices are on the firm side of trend at 0.3%, though only 0.254% before rounding. The Employmen

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Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

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Election and U.S. Equities
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

The multi week reaction will likely swing on the narrow equity market focus of winners and losers and an assessment that a Trump win would be better than Harris for the U.S. equity market.  However, multi quarter the actual implementation of policies can spillover to impact the corporate earnings o

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 9:49 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 166.00 has met selling interest around 166.68

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating losses
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 8:58 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Cautious trade following the test of strong resistance within the 153.40 Fibonacci retracement and the 154.00 break level is giving way to the anticipated pullback

Chart GBP/USD Update: Break above 1.3000 not sustained
Freemium Article

October 31, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

The anticipated break above congestion resistance at 1.3000 failed to reached the 1.3070 weekly high of 18 October

EUR flows: EUR supported by strong German retail sales
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

EUR retains a mild positive bias after strong German retail sales data

JPY flows: JPY firmer after BoJ
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

JPY firmer after BoJ meeting with Ueda comments suggesting tightening cycle will continue

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BoJ Review: Little guidance ahead
Freemium Article

October 31, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rate unchanged in the Oct 31 meeting at 0.25% with little forward guidance
Quarterly report remains hawkish in policy stance and mixed revision on CPI

USD/JPY flows: Stronger before BoJ
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 12:50 AM UTC

JPY stronger before BoJ

October 30, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 31st
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

BoJ meeting a key focus – some hawkish aspect needed to halt JPY decline
Longer term JPY buyers should see current levels as attractive
Eurozone CPI data should help consolidate EUR recovery
US data likely to be ignored ahead of employment report and election

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Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Foresees Wider Budget Deficit but a Better Growth Prospect
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government announced its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 30, setting government policy goals and forecasts over the next three years. According to MTBPS, South African Treasury sees consolidated deficit at 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit rebounding after August narrowing
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 4:54 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Higher towards current year highs in CAD-driven trade
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 4:43 PM UTC

No change, as prices extend gains in CAD-driven trade towards strong resistance at the 1.3947 current year high of 5 August