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November 1, 2024 8:58 PM UTC
In early 2024, Brazil's credit market saw an 8.2% growth, supported by easing inflation and favorable monetary policy. Both earmarked and non-earmarked credit contributed, with household credit outpacing enterprise lending. Delinquency rates remain manageable at 3.8%. However, deceleration is expect
November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
November 1, 2024 5:39 PM UTC
We expect unchanged October industrial production with a 0.3% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing will be a continued negative while Hurricane Milton is another downside risk. However after September data in which the Boeing strike and two hurricanes were both seen as having reduced output
November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2
November 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index at 46.5 from 47.2 is the weakest since July 2023 if only a modest deterioration. We doubt the Boeing strike had a major impact on this report which is less sensitive to issues in one large company than are aggregate measures of output.
November 1, 2024 1:27 PM UTC
October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes, though probably also in part due to a correction from an above trend September, and negative revisions make the trend going into this report less strong than it was.
November 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
US employment report clearly on the weak side with downward revisions to August and September as well as the weaker (but weather and strike affected) October number. USD risks on the downside but major move unlikely ahead of the election
November 1, 2024 9:55 AM UTC
Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further
October 31, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further
October 31, 2024 4:07 PM UTC
Focus on US employment report but weather and strikes may limit reaction
USD and higher yielders vulnerable to safe havens if equity weakness continues
CHF strength unlikely to reverse much ahead of the US election
GBP post-budget weakness can extend further
October 31, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp
October 31, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.
October 31, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q3 totals having been seen in the GDP report. As in Q3, growth in spending, of 0.5%, exceeds a 0.3% rise in income while core PCE prices are on the firm side of trend at 0.3%, though only 0.254% before rounding. The Employmen
October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024
October 31, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
The multi week reaction will likely swing on the narrow equity market focus of winners and losers and an assessment that a Trump win would be better than Harris for the U.S. equity market. However, multi quarter the actual implementation of policies can spillover to impact the corporate earnings o
October 30, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
BoJ meeting a key focus – some hawkish aspect needed to halt JPY decline
Longer term JPY buyers should see current levels as attractive
Eurozone CPI data should help consolidate EUR recovery
US data likely to be ignored ahead of employment report and election
October 30, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom line: The coalition government announced its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 30, setting government policy goals and forecasts over the next three years. According to MTBPS, South African Treasury sees consolidated deficit at 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in
October 30, 2024 4:54 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.