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November 12, 2025
November 11, 2025
U.S. October NFIB survey - Weaker but far from weak
November 11, 2025 1:33 PM UTC
October’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.2 from 98.8 has seen a second straight decline, possibly influenced by the government shutdown which looks close to being resolved. The index is still well above pre-election levels and above April’s 95.8 when tariff alarm was at its peak.
EZ Rates: 2026 ECB Easing But 2027 French Crisis?
November 11, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
· Financial conditions are tighter than suggested by a 2% ECB depo rate, which will both dampen an EZ economic pick-up and cause further disinflation. We see the ECB delivering two further 25bps cuts to a 1.5% ECB depo rate, which can mean a further decline in 2yr Bund yields. Howev
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC
Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1). Regardless, the latest l