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March 21, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Weekly Strategy: March 24th-28th
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 4:05 PM UTC

JPY still has potential for gains unless market sentiment improves
EUR may get some support from PMIs
US PMI, trade and confidence data has potential for more impact than usual
GBP may be vulnerable to CPI and fiscal update
AUD tone has weakened but big picture still looks positive

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As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:41 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion resistance at 0.6300 is giving way to the anticipated drift lower

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

The retest of congestion resistance at 162.00 has been rejected

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy in range
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test back above 149.00 has been pushed back sharply from beneath congestion resistance at 150.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced at 104.00 - studies improving
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance at 104.00

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

Chartbook: Chart EUR/USD: Approaching critical resistance within the 1.1000 - 1.1275 range
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support at the 1.0200 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a steady bounce

Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC

Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer

Psychology for major markets March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

USD firm as risk appetite softens

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged
A Placeholder Meeting for BoJ
BoE Being Careful Amid Data Conflicts
Everything Unchanged for Riksbank 
SNB 25 bp Cut Likely To Last

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:47 AM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

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Trump Product and Reciprocal Tariffs
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news.  Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment.  Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s

Chart GBP/USD Update: Drifting lower
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Still little change, as selling interest from resistance at the 1.3000 break level keeps near-term sentiment under pressure

USD, JPY flows: Softer JPY overnight hard to justify
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:36 AM UTC

JPY weakened overnight despite lower equities and stronger Japanese inflation

Chartbook: Chart AUD/USD: Room to extend bounce from .6100, Fibonacci level
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Break of the 2022 year low at .6170 in early January has seen losses reaching fresh low at .6100, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:16 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the 192.00 level as prices consolidate losses from the 194.75 resistance

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

Turned up from the 93.15 low to consolidate sharp losses from the 95.50/96.00 resistance

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2155 low
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 5:35 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 7.2175/55 lows has given way to bounce as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Under pressure, but stretched
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend steep drop from the 87.3850 high of last week to approach the 86.1650 support

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 5:14 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment soft
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

Trump tweet again for the Fed to lower rates

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 21st
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 3:57 AM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Poised for retest of 16590, February YTD high
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:52 AM UTC

Break above the 16470/16474 resistance has seen extension to reach 16535 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending bounce from 33.55/50 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:37 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 33.55/33.50 support has given way to bounce as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Just shy of 1472.00 resistance
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:23 AM UTC

Break above the 1460.00/1464.00 resistance further extending gains from the 1440.00 support to approach the February high at 1472.00

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in consolidation from 1.3300 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 2:13 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.3300 level has given way to bounce to retest the 1.3375 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp pullback, room for lower later
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:26 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 161.00 congestion and bounce from the 160.73 low see prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 148.55/00 support
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:14 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 148.55/148.00 support following rejection from 150.00

USD/JPY flows: Headline CPI Stays Elevated
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:10 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating sharp pullback
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:44 AM UTC

Bounce from the .5722 low see prices consolidating sharp pullback through the .5773 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extend pullback from .6390 high
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:23 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the .6300 level but pressure remains on the downside following pullback from the .6390 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market remains choppy after round of European central banks decision. The biggest winners are IDR by 0.3%, followed by MYR 0.24%, PHP 0.13%, TWD 0.1% and INR 0.09%; while the largest losers are SGD 0.31%, CNH & KRW 0.29%,

March 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 21st
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy in range - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 20, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

 The anticipated gains from support at 1.4300 have met sharp selling interest around 1.4400

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, March 21st
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 4:14 PM UTC

USD to continue to edge higher against the EUR
GBP to sustain gains but upside modest
JPY strength to continue, but more equity weakness required to extend gains
AUD down, but not out

...
Norges Bank Preview (Mar 27): No Change but a Close Call?
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 3:56 PM UTC

Norway sees the widely awaited Norges Bank decision later this month where recent inflation data have questioned whether the well flagged rate cut will now be delivered – we think the decision may be more finely balances that many are suggesting not least as economic activity signs are mixed even

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:58 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a steady pullback

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Reversal lower in both EUR- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:34 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a sharp EUR- and JPY-driven pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sharp fall from 150.00 in JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 150.00 has given way to a sharp pullback in JPY-driven trade

U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Unexpected bounce may be in part seasonal
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

February existing home sales have seen a very unexpected 4.2% rise to 4.26m, contrasting the evidence of some surveys, though the decline does not quite fully erase a 4.7% fall in January.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Higher in range - studies improving
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a move higher, with prices currently pressuring congestion resistance at 104.00

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SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

Chartbook: Chart USD/CHF: Seen lower into the coming weeks
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 1:20 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong resistance at the 0.9225 year high of May 2024 has been met by expected profit-taking

U.S. Initial Claims still low, March Philly Fed slower but still positive
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in

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BoE Review: Being Careful Amid Data Conflicts
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

Even amid a BoE rate cut last month that was delivered with a clear(er) degree of action, all MPC members opting for easier policy.  Even so, it was clear there were still MPC divisions that probably reflected increased uncertainty enough for the BoE to have altered its rhetoric somewhat to stress

USD flows: USD firm after neutral US data
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

USD holding its firm tone with data still showing a solid labour market

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after BoE leaves rates unchanged
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 12:15 PM UTC

An 8-1 vote for no change with only one dissenting dove rather than the two expected by the consensus has helped GBP a little higher, but the statement is fairly neutral.

Psychology for major markets March 20th
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 11:18 AM UTC

USD recovering as risk sentiment dips