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January 21, 2025
President Trump: Filling in the Blanks
January 21, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
While the new executive orders from president Trump were focused on immigration and energy issues, the threat of 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada by Feb 1 raises the stakes in North America negotiations in the coming weeks. China tariff threats will likely become more concreate in Q1, though
Rupee at Record Low: Can India Weather the Dollar Storm?
January 21, 2025 5:03 AM UTC
The Indian rupee has slumped to an all-time low of 86 against the US dollar, underscoring the pressure on emerging market currencies as the dollar index surges to multi-month highs. For India, this currency depreciation signals potential disruptions in financial markets, with equities and bonds—no
January 20, 2025
Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
January 20, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a
Brazil Risk Premia and EM Debt
January 20, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Brazil debt market has two domestic crises rather than a spillover from the U.S. in the form of inflation and fiscal policy. Very restrictive BCB policy can help produce some disinflation and we forecast 4.1% for 2026, which some allow some rate cuts in H2. Brazil risk premium will likely be reduced
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 20th-24th
January 20, 2025 4:27 AM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
January 20, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as market prepares for volatility after Trump's inauguration. The biggest winners are THB by 0.41%, CNY 0.09%, CNH 0.07%, KRW 0.06%, TWD and HKD by 0.02%; the largest loser are SGD by 0.1%, MYR 0.08%, INR 0.07%, IDR and PHP by 0.03%.
USD
January 19, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 20th-24th
January 19, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 20th-24th
January 19, 2025 6:00 PM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains