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July 26, 2024 6:53 PM UTC
We expect July’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.0 after slipping to 48.2, its lowest since the pandemic in May 2020. However the index will remain a lot weaker than the S and P services PMI, which in July saw a third straight rise to 56.0, to its highest since March 2022.
July 26, 2024 3:40 PM UTC
We expect June’s trade deficit to slip to $73.4bn from $75.1bn, which would be the first narrowing since March. We expect exports to rise by 1.6% after a 0.7% May decline and imports to rise by 0.7% after falling by 0.3% in May.
July 26, 2024 2:51 PM UTC
The Central Bank of Argentina's plan for macroeconomic stabilization includes three stages: an orthodox fiscal exit, establishing an orthodox monetary framework, and prudently lifting FX controls. The fiscal deficit reduction has helped end the monetization of the deficit, while transitioning to a c
July 26, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on July 31 and while a change in rates remains unlikely, the FOMC is likely to signal that easing is possible if data before the next meeting on September 18 provides further evidence of falling inflationary pressure. This will see changes to the wording of the statement,
July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol
July 26, 2024 1:03 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report is largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP detail. In Q2 income surprised on the downside but spending and PCE prices surprised on the upside. For prices and spending the Q2 surprise came more in back month revisions than June data. For income th
July 26, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
More neutral market Friday after Tokyo CPI comes in in line with consensus
July 26, 2024 4:31 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday
July 26, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed its decline against major in the U.S. session after witnessing stronger GDP but its gain is limited outside of pairs that was oversold. CNH saw the largest gains of 0.36%, followed by MYR and CNY 0.23%, THB 0.0
July 25, 2024 3:20 PM UTC
We still think that the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 bp at the Aug 1 MPC verdict and that that two further such cuts may arrive by end-year. We accept that stubborn services inflation may harden the hawks, despite softer wage pressures. But while the recent Bernanke Report recommended phasing ou
July 25, 2024 2:21 PM UTC
Ahead of the GDP report, we forecast a 0.1% increase in the June core PCE price index, with a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.2% rise in personal spending. If there are no revisions to April or May, we would see a core PCE price index rounded up to 0.3%, with personal income unchanged and spend
July 25, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
Q2 GDP has come in significantly stronger than expected with a 2.8% increase while core PCE prices are also above consensus at 2.9%, which suggests despite yesterday’s call from former New York Fed President Dudley, a July Fed easing remains very unlikely.
July 25, 2024 9:19 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy actually avoided what was previously suggested to have been a modest recession in H2 last year. Moreover, the economy sparked back in Q1, albeit against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences but where