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June 20, 2024

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U.S. Outlook: Economy Starting to Lose Momentum
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:17 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy is starting to lose momentum after a surprisingly strong second half of 2023, and we expect the loss of momentum to become more apparent in the second half of 2024, causing a slowing in employment growth from its current strong pace. We expect inflation to resume a gradua

Chartbook: Chart USD/CHF: Expected to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:01 PM UTC

The anticipated rally from just above critical support at the 0.8320 multi-year Fibonacci retracement has met anticipated selling interest just shy of the 0.9245 high of October 2023

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test below 1.3700 - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

The anticipated test below congestion support at 1.3700 is giving way to fresh consolidation around here

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

US PMIs a focus after May jump
Modest dip expected but unlikely to be enough to trigger much reaction
JPY weakness continues and may bring the BoJ into action
GBP could fall further but big EUR/GBP recovery unlikely ahead of French election

Preview: Due June 21 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - A third straight decline
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to fall by 3.4% to 4.00m. This would be a third straight fall and complete a reversal of a sharp 9.5% rise seen in February. In 2023 February also saw a sharp rise that preceded a steady trend lower in the following months. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower in range
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

The bounce from congestion around 0.6600 has reached 0.6680

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Strong resistance at 170.80
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a fresh move higher in JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due June 21 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections seen from surprising strength in May
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:34 PM UTC

We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show slippage after surprising improvements seen in May, though we do not expect June’s data to show any clear signs of weakness. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending May gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a USD- and JPY-driven break higher

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

Cautious trade above congestion support at 105.00 is giving way to a run higher

U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Current Account all disappoint
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

The latest round of US data is all on the weak side of expectations (though the Philly Fed survey saw higher price indices), with initial claims being of most significance in that this is the survey week for June’s non-farm payroll. While slightly lower on the week, at 238k, last week’s 14k spik

Chartbook: Chart EUR/USD: Extending cautious trade
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 12:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.1000

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BoE Review: MPC Splits Enlarge to Suggest Cut Soon
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:48 AM UTC

As widely Bank Rate was kept at 5.25% for the seventh successive MPC meeting this month, with its rhetoric largely unchanged.  But while there were still only two formal dissents, the minutes clearly suggested that for some of the remaining seven members the policy decision at this meeting was fine

GBP flows: GBP softer after BoE
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

Makrets see BoE comments as dovish despite unchanged 7-2 vote 

Psychology for major markets June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

USD and risky currencies firm as equities move to new highs

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Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

NOK flows: NOK firmer after Norges Bank meeting
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 9:13 AM UTC

Norges Bank projecting slightly higher short term rate profile supports NOK

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Norges Bank Review: Excessive Last Mile Caution?
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 9:04 AM UTC

It was always the very high likelihood that the thrust of recent data and the Board’s clear caution would mean that the Norges Bank would leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a fourth successive meeting and this is what duly occurred.  Perhaps more notable was that the it was more explicit in stress

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

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SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting.  We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.  

CHF flows: CHF falls back on SNB rate cut
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates 25bps as most expected. CHF weaker and some scope for further losses 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test higher has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.2750

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room to extend gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

Break above the 1.0850 congestion has seen extension to reach 1.0885 high

CHF, GBP flows: Some downside risks for CHF and GBP
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

SNB and BoE monetary policy decisions today carry some risk of easier than expected policy and weaker currencies

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidation to give way to selling pressure to target 1.6000
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

Break of the January 1.6130 low extend the losses from the March YTD high

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, lower later
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:34 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 83.3425 low as prices consolidate pullback from the 83.5735 high of last week

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

USD/JPY flows: Japan Business Survey Pessimistic
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

The Japan Business Survey is showing only 7% business believe wage can catch up with inflation

NZD/USD flows: GDP Beats
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 4:47 AM UTC

New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%)

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 3:48 AM UTC

Consolidation below 16414 high has given way to break to fresh high to extend the underlying bull trend from the 2021 low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Pressure remains on the upside, scope to retest 1388.00 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

Range-bound in consolidation below the 1388.00 resistance but limited pullback keeps pressure on the upside

Chart USD/SGD Update: Scope for deeper pullback within the 1.3550/1.3450 range area
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:45 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from test of the 1.3545/50 resistance area as prices unwind overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/CNH Update: Break to fresh year high
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Break of the 7.2740/60 resistance has seen follow-through above the March high at 7.2830 to reach fresh high at 7.2878

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Remains in consolidation below 170.00 level
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:20 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 170.00 level with the mixed daily studies suggesting further ranging action here

Chart USD/JPY Update: Still pressuring the 158.00 level, scope to 158.44 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:02 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation at the 158.00 level but pressure building on the upside and see potential for extension to retest the 158.44 high of 26 April

Chart NZD/USD Update: Steady within a narrow range below .6150 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 12:34 AM UTC

Steady within a narrow range below the .6150 congestion

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending gains, focus on the .6700/15 range highs
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 12:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the .6600/.6580 support to clear the .6650 resistance, opening up the .6700 level and .6715 high to retest

June 19, 2024

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BCB Review: A Pause in the Cutting Cycle
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 10:17 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank kept the policy rate at 10.5%, citing economic uncertainty and a need for caution. Inflation expectations for 2025 are 3.8%, above the 3.0% target. Political interference concerns persist, but the unanimous decision indicates a technical approach. The BRL's depreciation ma

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Freemium Article

June 19, 2024 3:36 PM UTC

Little change, as choppy trade drifts lower to congestion support at 1.3700

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 20th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

USD flows: BOE/SNB Next Focus
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Thursday see key BOE and SNB meetings. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Approaching strong resistance
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

The bounce from congestion around 0.6600 is extending

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around 169.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - daily studies leaning lower
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade

Chartbook: Chart USD Index DXY: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower in the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 11:42 AM UTC

There has been little change in price action in 2024Q2

Psychology for major markets June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

GBP up on UK service CPI. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:56 AM UTC

GBP firm after service inflation slows less than expected 
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive