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December 10, 2025
Fed: Slower 2026 Easing
December 10, 2025 8:34 PM UTC
Powell in the press conference made clear that the Fed is now in a wait and see mood, with policy rates entering a broad measure of neutral policy rates. This means further weakening in labor demand and then consumption would be required to prompt an early 2026 cut. We are less upbeat than the Fed
FOMC eases by 25bps, dots unchanged from September
December 10, 2025 7:21 PM UTC
The FOMC has eased by 25bps as expected to a 3.50-3.75% Fed Funds target range, with two hawkish dissents for no change from Schmid (who dissented in October) and Goolsbee, while Miran again dissented for a steeper 50bps ease. The dots are unchanged from September, implying one 25bps ease in both 20
Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data
December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m
Chartbook: Chart EUR/GBP: Corrective pullback/consolidation before higher
December 10, 2025 1:49 PM UTC
Anticipated gains have posted a fresh 2025 year high at 0.8865,
before turning lower in steady profit-taking to trade below 0.8800.
Weekly stochastics and the weekly Tension Indicator are under pressure, highlighting room for deeper losses into early 2026 Q1, with focus to turn to congestion around 0.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 10, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
Norges Bank Preview (Dec 18): Still Far Too Cautious
December 10, 2025 9:17 AM UTC
No change in policy and little shift in rhetoric was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict. After what was to some a surprise (and seemingly far from a formality) move in September, in which the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, we see no change at the loomin