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March 21, 2025 4:05 PM UTC
JPY still has potential for gains unless market sentiment improves
EUR may get some support from PMIs
US PMI, trade and confidence data has potential for more impact than usual
GBP may be vulnerable to CPI and fiscal update
AUD tone has weakened but big picture still looks positive
March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr
March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.
March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC
Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer
March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news. Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment. Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s
March 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market remains choppy after round of European central banks decision. The biggest winners are IDR by 0.3%, followed by MYR 0.24%, PHP 0.13%, TWD 0.1% and INR 0.09%; while the largest losers are SGD 0.31%, CNH & KRW 0.29%,
March 20, 2025 3:56 PM UTC
Norway sees the widely awaited Norges Bank decision later this month where recent inflation data have questioned whether the well flagged rate cut will now be delivered – we think the decision may be more finely balances that many are suggesting not least as economic activity signs are mixed even
March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli
March 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in
March 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC
Even amid a BoE rate cut last month that was delivered with a clear(er) degree of action, all MPC members opting for easier policy. Even so, it was clear there were still MPC divisions that probably reflected increased uncertainty enough for the BoE to have altered its rhetoric somewhat to stress