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May 09, 2025

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3900

FX Weekly Strategy: May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:56 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.

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A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

The anticipated test below 0.6400 has bounced from above further support at 0.6360

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy in range - studies rising
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:38 PM UTC

Anticipated minor gains have been pushed back from just below resistance at 164.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating gains - studies continue to improve
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached resistance within the 145.55 Fibonacci retracement and the 146.00 break level

CAD flows: CAD little changed after employment report
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

USD/CAD little changed but risks to the upside as employment trend weakens

Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.

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Household Divergence Into the Downturn?
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Overall, the shock faced by the U.S. from tariffs is a negative supply shock, which can then be followed by job losses and restrained income and consumption growth.  This 2 round can be amplified if a hard landing is seen and quickens job losses, which would really hurt low income households. Howev

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 100.82

Psychology for major markets May 9
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

USD recovering helped by more positive equity tone

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed

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India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

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UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1).  But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extend choppy trade above 92.00
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 7:41 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation above the 92.00 support to retest 93.55 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Reached 1.3200/33 - studies continue to track lower
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 7:24 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to the test of strong support at the 1.3200 break level and the 1.3233 weekly low of 23 April

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending gains from April low
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 7:16 AM UTC

Consolidation below 1.0850 resistance has given way to break higher to extend gains from the 1.0650, April YTD low

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Higher in consolidation from 1.7415/1.7365 support
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 6:54 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation following bounce from the 1.7415/1.7365 support 

NOK flows: NOK little changed after CPI
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

Norwegian CPI on the soft side, but NOK still good value

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Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

Chart USD/INR Update: Extend sharp corrective gains
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Sharply higher through the 85.0000 level and break above the 85.5000/85.6625 resistance see scope to target 85.8600