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September 16, 2025

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices moving higher
Paying Article

September 16, 2025 3:36 PM UTC

We expect August data to show 0.3% gains in both overall and core PCE prices, with personal income also up by 0.3% and personal spending slightly stronger at 0.4%. The data will incorporate historical revisions through Q2 due with the annual GDP revision scheduled for September 25.

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Returning to trend
Paying Article

September 16, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

We expect an August goods trade deficit of $96.0bn, down from $102.8bn in July and slightly wider than the average of July and June’s $84.5bn. The deficit will be similar to May’s and well below the Q1-pre-tariff levels, but not far from the pre-election trend.

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Subdued with little direction
Paying Article

September 16, 2025 2:18 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to fall by 6.2% to 1340k, correcting two straight gains of over 5.0%, while permits fall by a marginal 0.1% to 1360k. 

September 15, 2025

Preview: Due September 26 - Canada July GDP - First rise in three months
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 2:34 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian GDP to rise by 0.2%, following three straight declines of 0.1%. A 0.2% rise would be slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with June’s report.

Preview: Due September 16 - Canada August CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Weakness a year ago is likely to see August Canadian CPI picking up on a yr/yr basis, we expect to 2.0% from 1.7%. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain fairly stable, and above the 2.0% target.

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Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos to slip, but core rates to maintain trend
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 12:16 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.2% increase in August retail sales restrained by a correction lower in auto sales. However we expect the core rates ex autos and ex autos and gasoline to maintain trend with gains of 0.4%. 

September 12, 2025

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 6:30 PM UTC

We do expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Recent strength difficult to sustain
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 5:13 PM UTC

We expect September’s S and P PMIs to slip, manufacturing to 51.5 from 53.0 and services to 53.5 from 54.5. We expect slippage more because recent strength looks difficult to sustain rather than because of any clear signals for weakness. 

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 1:22 PM UTC

We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in

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FOMC Preview for September 17: 25bps Easing on Increased Labor Market Risk
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i

September 10, 2025

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Correcting lower
Paying Article

September 10, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

We expect August durable goods orders to fall by 1.0% in a third straight fall, though still not fully reversing a surge of 16.6% in May, while ex transport orders fall by 0.5% in a correction from a 1.0% July increase, that was the strongest of three straight gains.

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Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
Paying Article

September 10, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

We expect August CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.37% and 0.31%. This would be the second straight gains slightly above 0.3% in the core rate with the impact of tariffs starting to escalate.

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UK CPI Preview (Sep 17): Goods Inflation the Recent Problem, Not Services?
Paying Article

September 10, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Partly due to rounding and fuel (and possibly food) costs, we see the headline rising a notch to 3.9% in the August figure, this foresh

September 09, 2025

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Bank of Canada Preview for September 17: Weak data justifies resumption of easing
Paying Article

September 9, 2025 6:26 PM UTC

After the Bank of Canada’s last meeting on July 30 we expected rates to be left on hold in September before easing resumed in October. However with data since that meeting having been mostly weak, a 25bps easing, the first move since March, now looks likely at the September 17 meeting, to 2.5%. We

Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
Paying Article

September 9, 2025 2:58 PM UTC

We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk. 

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U.S. March 2025 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revised Down by a Preliminary 911k
Paying Article

September 9, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

The preliminary estimate for the downward revision to the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark at -911k is steeper than generally than expected and exceeds even the unusually sharp 818k negative revision reported a year ago for the March 2024 benchmark. The data will be incorporated into the Januar

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - A moderate gain after a surge in July
Paying Article

September 9, 2025 12:40 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, moderate gains after shocking surges of 0.9% in each series in July, which broke a string of mostly subdued outcomes from February through June. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a 0.3% increase to follow a 0.6% rise in Jul

September 08, 2025

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slightly weaker for sales and prices
Paying Article

September 8, 2025 7:12 PM UTC

We expect August existing home sales to slip by 2.5% to 3.91m to resume a modestly negative trend after a 2.0% increase in July. This would take the level to its lowest since September 2024.

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Expecting a Negative Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision
Freemium Article

September 8, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

Tuesday sees the release of the preliminary Labor Dep’t estimate for the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark, with expectations for a significant negative, possibly as large as the -818k preliminary estimate for the March 2024 benchmark delivered a year ago. The eventual revision to March 2024 p

September 05, 2025

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Subdued with little direction
Paying Article

September 5, 2025 2:47 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to fall by 6.2% to 1340k, correcting two straight gains of over 5.0%, while permits fall by a marginal 0.1% to 1360k. 

September 04, 2025

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Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos to slip, but core rates to maintain trend
Paying Article

September 4, 2025 6:53 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.2% increase in August retail sales restrained by a correction lower in auto sales. However we expect the core rates ex autos and ex autos and gasoline to maintain trend with gains of 0.4%. 

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Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary
Freemium Article

September 4, 2025 2:45 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st

September 03, 2025

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August ISM Services - Holding above neutral, with stronger prices
Paying Article

September 3, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

We expect an increase in August’s ISM services index to 51.5, up from 50.1 in July but still keeping the index in the subdued 49.9 to 51.6 range that has been seen since March. 

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China rebound
Paying Article

September 3, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

We expect a July goods trade deficit of $79.2bn, up from $60.2bn in June. The deficit will compare to a Q2 average of $64.0bn but remain well below Q1’s pre-tariff average of $130.2bn. It will be similar to where trend was before the November election result signaled higher tariffs were coming.

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Slower than July which corrected a June decline
Paying Article

September 3, 2025 12:23 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 60k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a slowing from 104k in July which outperformed the non-farm payroll, with July’s improved data looking in part corrective from a 23k decline in June.