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July 03, 2025
Preview: Due July 18 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to continue falling
July 3, 2025 6:07 PM UTC
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
UK GDP Preview (Jul 11): Another Large Downside Surprise?
July 3, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But we see that 0.3% m/m drop being repeated in the looming May numbers (Figure 1), thereby adding to a gloomier economic backdrop most recently highlighted by growing signs
July 02, 2025
Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
July 2, 2025 6:41 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Mostly subdued
July 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase.
Preview: Due July 15 - Canada June CPI - Subdued on the month but little progress yr/yr
July 2, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to rise to 1.9% yr/yr after two straight months at 1.7%, the fall to 1.7% from 2.3% in March having been fully due to the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance stable in June, and still above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June ISM Services - Bouncing back above neutral
July 2, 2025 1:25 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM services index of 51.5, rebounding from May’s 49.9 which edged below the neutral 50 for the first time since June 2024. The recovery will reflect reduced concerns over tariffs and associated worries in the equity market.
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Bank to near pre-election levels
July 2, 2025 1:13 PM UTC
We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
July 2, 2025 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th
July 01, 2025
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs
July 1, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June PPI - Stronger if still mostly subdued
July 1, 2025 6:14 PM UTC
We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
July 1, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju
June 30, 2025
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low
June 30, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
June 27, 2025
U.S. Q2 GDP to see only a modest rebound from a decline in Q1
June 27, 2025 6:05 PM UTC
The release of advance May trade and inventory data, plus May consumer spending, provides us with clearer signals on Q2 GDP, even if we have not yet seen any data for June. We currently expect a modest annualized gain of 1.4%, following a 0.5% decline in Q1, leaving a subdued first half of the year.
June 26, 2025
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Bank to near pre-election levels
June 26, 2025 3:12 PM UTC
We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election
Preview: Due June 27 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
June 26, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in May’s core PCE price index, matching to core CPI, continuing to show limited tariff pass-through. Subdued data are also likely from personal income, which we expect to be unchanged, and personal spending, where we expect a 0.1% decline. Downward revisions to Q1 income and
June 25, 2025
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June ISM Services - Bouncing back above neutral
June 25, 2025 4:53 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM services index of 51.5, rebounding from May’s 49.9 which edged below the neutral 50 for the first time since June 2024. The recovery will reflect reduced concerns over tariffs and associated worries in the equity market.
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - Another marginal upward revision, but still negative
June 25, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
We expect the third (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised marginally higher to -0.1% from the second (preliminary) estimate of -0.2%. This would follow an upward revision from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%.
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to extend correction from March record
June 25, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
We expect May’s advance goods trade deficit to fall to $79.5bn from $87.0bn in April, extending the sharp correction from the record $162.0bn deficit seen in March as imports surged ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Strong rise but fully on aircraft
June 25, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods to rise by 6.7% overall, with the rise likely to be fully due to a surge in aircraft orders as implied by Boeing data. We expect ex transport orders to rise by a marginal 0.1%, and transport orders to be negative outside aircraft.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low
June 25, 2025 12:40 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
June 24, 2025
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May New Home Sales - April strength unlikely to be sustained
June 24, 2025 3:41 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible.
EZ HICP Preview (Jul 1): Headline Stays Below Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
June 24, 2025 8:57 AM UTC
Inflation – now below target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Indeed, we see the flash June HICP staying at May’s below-consensus, eight-month low and below-target 1.9% (Figure 1). More notably, having jumped
June 23, 2025
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to surge but to reverse in Q2
June 23, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
We expect a record Q1 US current account deficit of $430bn, up from $303.9bn in Q4, which will probably be revised a little lower. The rise in the deficit will be largely on a pre-tariff surge in goods imports and is likely to be reversed in Q2. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 5.7%, up f