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October 21, 2026
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation
October 21, 2026 4:03 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024.
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation
October 21, 2026 4:03 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024.
Bank of Canada Preview for October 28: Steady, December tightening not a done deal
October 21, 2026 2:04 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on October 28 and recent soft employment and core inflation data suggest rates will be left unchanged at 2.25%. The BoC is still likely to express more concern about upside than downside risks, but may sound a little more balanced than was the case at the last meeting on Sep
Bank of Canada Preview for October 28: Steady, December tightening not a done deal
October 21, 2026 2:04 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on October 28 and recent soft employment and core inflation data suggest rates will be left unchanged at 2.25%. The BoC is still likely to express more concern about upside than downside risks, but may sound a little more balanced than was the case at the last meeting on Sep
October 20, 2026
FOMC Preview for October 28: Tightening to be debated but delayed
October 20, 2026 2:59 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on October 28 and a strong case for a second straight tightening can be made and will certainly be debated at the meeting. However to appears more likely that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0%. It is likely that December’s meeting will see a tightening, but Chairman Wa
FOMC Preview for October 28: Tightening to be debated but delayed
October 20, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on October 28 and a strong case for a second straight tightening can be made and will certainly be debated at the meeting. However to appears more likely that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0%. It is likely that December’s meeting will see a tightening, but Chairman Wa
October 19, 2026
Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
October 19, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
October 19, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 19-23 October
October 19, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
US bonds and USD became overstretched, looking to rebalance n/t
Euro remains weighed crosses out of French disorder
Quiet week though event risks coming onto the horizon
Big picture cross-asset themes across bonds-equities-dollar relationships remain a background focus
October 16, 2026
Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates
October 16, 2026 5:15 PM UTC
Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
October 15, 2026
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 15, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 15, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
October 15, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
October 14, 2026
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Slower but with yr/yr growth stable
October 14, 2026 3:03 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slower than two preceding quarters at 0.9% but leaving yr/yr growth stable at 3.4% for a third straight quarter.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 14, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 14, 2026 1:45 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
October 13, 2026
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August
October 13, 2026 5:57 PM UTC
We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained
October 13, 2026 3:59 PM UTC
After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
October 13, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
October 12, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
October 12, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
