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June 26, 2026
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
June 26, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June
June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU
June 25, 2026
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
June 25, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
June 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
June 24, 2026
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
June 24, 2026 3:34 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 24, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to correct lower, but ex transport trend positive
June 24, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods orders to fall by 4.0% overall after a rise of 8.0% in April, the moves led by volatility in aircraft. Ex transport we expect an increase of 0.8%, slightly slower than three straight gains in excess of 1.0%, but maintaining a positive trend.
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
June 24, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.
June 23, 2026
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
June 23, 2026 3:38 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 23, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit showing signs of stabilizing
June 23, 2026 11:58 AM UTC
We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $206.8bn, up from $190.7bn in Q4 which would be the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn in Q1 2025. The deterioration from Q4 could however be modest with trade data suggesting that Q4’s deficit will be revised
June 22, 2026
Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
June 22, 2026 6:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 22, 2026 5:37 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 22, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
June 18, 2026
Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April
June 18, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
June 17, 2026
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
June 17, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.
June 16, 2026
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias (update)
June 16, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, including those for
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 16, 2026 2:33 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
June 16, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 16, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.