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October 07, 2025
UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness
October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a
October 02, 2025
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC
We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline.
October 01, 2025
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August
October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju
Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate
October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC
We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September
October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep
September 30, 2025
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
September 30, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, returning to June’s level after rising to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July. The index has not been above neutral since February.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down
September 30, 2025 12:33 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.
September 29, 2025
September 25, 2025
Preview: Due October 7 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
September 25, 2025 4:48 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March.
Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Savings higher after GDP revisions
September 25, 2025 3:04 PM UTC
We expect August data to show 0.3% gains in both overall and core PCE prices, with personal income also up by 0.3% and personal spending slightly stronger at 0.4%. The data will incorporate historical revisions through Q2 seen with the GDP revisions.
September 24, 2025
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down
September 24, 2025 5:19 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August
September 24, 2025 3:28 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to show another subdued rise, of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while average hourly earnings maintai
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Returning to trend
September 24, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $96.0bn, down from $102.8bn in July and slightly wider than the average of July and June’s $84.5bn. The deficit will be similar to May’s and well below the Q1-pre-tariff levels, but not far from the pre-election trend.
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Correcting lower
September 24, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
We expect August durable goods orders to fall by 1.0% in a third straight fall, though still not fully reversing a surge of 16.6% in May, while ex transport orders fall by 0.5% in a correction from a 1.0% July increase, that was the strongest of three straight gains.
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 24, 2025 12:28 PM UTC
We do not expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.
EZ HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Inflation to Edges Higher as Services Slows to Fresh Cycle-low
September 24, 2025 10:54 AM UTC
As we have underlined of late, HICP inflation – at target for the last three months – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, offset instead by moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter. This mindset will not be altered by the flash HICP dat
September 23, 2025
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
September 23, 2025 4:08 PM UTC
We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
September 23, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
We expect September’s ISM manufacturing index to 49.0, returning to June’s level after rising to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July. The index has not been above neutral since February.
German HICP Preview (Sep 30): Headline Higher But Core to Fall Further?
September 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
September 23, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk.
September 22, 2025
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slightly weaker for sales and prices
September 22, 2025 12:59 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to slip by 2.5% to 3.91m to resume a modestly negative trend after a 2.0% increase in July. This would take the level to its lowest since September 2024.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Recent strength difficult to sustain
September 22, 2025 12:37 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to slip, manufacturing to 51.5 from 53.0 and services to 53.5 from 54.5. We expect slippage more because recent strength looks difficult to sustain rather than because of any clear signals for weakness.
Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit
September 22, 2025 12:28 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in