View:
July 10, 2025 3:59 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 70k in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a significant correction from a 33k decline in June which was the first decline since March 2023, though still leaving a significant slowing in trend. June’s decline followed subdued gains of 29k i
July 10, 2025 2:53 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r
July 9, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic.
July 9, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late. Indeed, the timing of Easter may have been a partial factor in the May CPI, where a distinct drop back in services and core rates failed to make the headline drop, which instead stayed at 3.4% in line with BoE thinking due to hig
July 9, 2025 1:16 PM UTC
We expect June durable goods orders to fall by 10.5% after a 16.4% surge in May, with the fall, like May’s rise, largely on aircraft. Ex transport orders have been showing much less volatility, but we expect a 0.2% decline in June to correct an above trend 0.5% increase in May.
July 7, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June.
July 3, 2025 6:07 PM UTC
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
July 3, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But we see that 0.3% m/m drop being repeated in the looming May numbers (Figure 1), thereby adding to a gloomier economic backdrop most recently highlighted by growing signs
July 2, 2025 6:41 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.
July 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase.
July 2, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to rise to 1.9% yr/yr after two straight months at 1.7%, the fall to 1.7% from 2.3% in March having been fully due to the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance stable in June, and still above the 2.0% target.
July 2, 2025 1:25 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM services index of 51.5, rebounding from May’s 49.9 which edged below the neutral 50 for the first time since June 2024. The recovery will reflect reduced concerns over tariffs and associated worries in the equity market.
July 2, 2025 1:13 PM UTC
We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election
July 2, 2025 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th
July 1, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe
July 1, 2025 6:14 PM UTC
We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.
July 1, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju
June 30, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
June 27, 2025 6:05 PM UTC
The release of advance May trade and inventory data, plus May consumer spending, provides us with clearer signals on Q2 GDP, even if we have not yet seen any data for June. We currently expect a modest annualized gain of 1.4%, following a 0.5% decline in Q1, leaving a subdued first half of the year.
June 26, 2025 3:12 PM UTC
We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election
June 26, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in May’s core PCE price index, matching to core CPI, continuing to show limited tariff pass-through. Subdued data are also likely from personal income, which we expect to be unchanged, and personal spending, where we expect a 0.1% decline. Downward revisions to Q1 income and
June 25, 2025 4:53 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM services index of 51.5, rebounding from May’s 49.9 which edged below the neutral 50 for the first time since June 2024. The recovery will reflect reduced concerns over tariffs and associated worries in the equity market.
June 25, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
We expect the third (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised marginally higher to -0.1% from the second (preliminary) estimate of -0.2%. This would follow an upward revision from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%.