Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive

April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall

April 15, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.

Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter

April 15, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends

April 14, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.

Mexico CPI Review: Moving as Expected

April 10, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Mexico’s March CPI rose 0.31%, matching expectations but below the historical average. Annual inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by core components like food and services. Non-core inflation fell due to lower energy prices. Food saw strong gains, while transport costs declined. The narrowing gap

Preview: Due Apr 23 - U.S. March New Home Sales - Stable trend but downside risk

April 9, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

We expect a March new home sales level of 660k, which would be a 2.4% decline after a 1.8% February increase if February’s 676k outcome is unrevised. While other housing sector data has been quite volatile new home sales have seen little direction. Risk is on the downside, modestly for this month

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate

April 9, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down. Tariffs will hit the CPI with force

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to rise, ex transport to correct lower

April 8, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.5% overall led by a strong rise in aircraft but ex transport we expect a 0.2% decline to correct a 0.7% increase in February. 

Bank of Canada Preview for April 16: Easing to pause, but unlikely to be done

April 8, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 16 and we expect that strength in some recent data and high uncertainty will see rates left unchanged at 2.75%. There will be little forward guidance and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report may avoid providing its usual economic forecasts. We do not expect that

UK CPI Preview (Apr 16): Inflation to Slip Further Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?

April 8, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals, albeit reversing some of the upside surprises seen in January data.  The numbers may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive

April 4, 2025 4:59 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

UK GDP Preview (Apr 11): Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys

April 4, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

UK GDP Preview: Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive.  This is all the more likely given the 0.1% m/m ‘recovery’ w

Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January and February, but slower than November and December

April 3, 2025 12:01 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends

April 2, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.

Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter

April 2, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic

April 1, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate

April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down. 

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2025

March 28, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2025.

Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI

March 27, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p

German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?

March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%.  This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation.  Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp

Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain

March 25, 2025 12:10 PM UTC

We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic

March 24, 2025 6:35 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.

Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December

March 24, 2025 5:39 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction

March 24, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher

March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?

March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower

March 17, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative. 

Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI

March 17, 2025 4:15 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p

Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, Permits starting to slip

March 17, 2025 1:22 PM UTC

We expect February housing starts to rise by 2.5% to 1400k following a weather-depressed 9.8% decline in January, but permits to fall by 1.6% to 1450k. This would be a third straight fall.