View:
May 30, 2025
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Deficit to plunge as imports reverse pre-tariff surge
May 30, 2025 5:59 PM UTC
We expect April’s trade deficit to plunge to $66.4bn, which would be the lowest since December 2023, from a record $140.5bn in March. We expect a healthy 2.1% increase from exports and a plunge of 16.3% in imports, correcting Q1 strength seen ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Bank of Canada Preview for June 4: A close call for another policy pause
May 30, 2025 3:43 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 4 and it is a close call between leaving rates unchanged at 2.75% and a 25bps easing to 2.5%, though we now lean to the former. The statement is unlikely to give any forward guidance and we still expect further easing this year as the economy weakens in response to U
Preview: Due June 2 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement, but not as far as neutral
May 30, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect a May ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from April’s 48.7, which was the weakest since November. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
May 29, 2025
Preview: Due May 30 - Canada Q1/March GDP - A slower quarter, with risk for a weak start to Q2
May 29, 2025 2:44 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to rise by a five-quarter low of 1.5% annualized, below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report. We expect a 0.1% increase in March GDP, matching an estimate made with February’s data. We expect a slight decline in the preliminary est
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on a post-tariff reversal in imports
May 29, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to fall sharply to $110bn from March’s record $163.2bn. While this would be below the deficits seen from December through March, it would remain above each month of 2024 excluding December. In coming months deficits are likely to slip below the pre-D
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
May 29, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in April’s core PCE price index, even softer than a 0.2% core CPI, though risk of a boost from tariffs persists in the coming months. We expect modest 0.3% gains in personal income and spending, which would imply gains of 0.2% in real terms, still some way off a recessionary
May 28, 2025
Preview: Due June 4 - U.S. May ISM Services - Slowing in trend to persist
May 28, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
We expect a May ISM services index of 51.5, almost unchanged from April’s 51.6 that saw a modest recovery from a weaker though still marginally positive 50.8 in March. Underlying trend has slowed in recent months.
Preview: Due June 2 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement, but not as far as neutral
May 28, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
We expect a May ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from April’s 48.7, which was the weakest since November. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - GDP to be revised marginally lower, Core PCE Prices to be revised higher
May 28, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
We expect the second (preliminary) estimate of Q1 GDP to be revised marginally lower to -0.4% from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%, though we also expect an upward revision to core PCE prices, to 3.7% from 3.5%.
May 27, 2025
Preview: Due June 4 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Less weak than April, but trend is slowing
May 27, 2025 4:26 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 85k in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than April’s 62k but closer to April than to March’s 147k and thus consistent with a further slowing in trend. We expect ADP data to underperform a 110k rise in May’s private sector non
Preview: Due June 6 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Some slowing, but not a recession signal
May 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
We expect a 120k increase in May’s non-farm payroll, with 110k in the private sector, slower than seen in March and April but stronger than what may have been weather-restrained months in January and February. We expect a slightly stronger 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings and an unchanged unem
EZ HICP and Labor Market Preview (Jun 3): Headline Back Below Target as Services Inflation Reverses Easter Effect?
May 27, 2025 11:17 AM UTC
Exceeding expectations, EZ HICP inflation failed to fall in April, instead staying at 2.2%. More notably, services inflation jumped 0.5 ppt to 4.0%, very probably due to the impact of the timing of Easter affecting airfares and holiday costs. As already seen in flash French May numbers, and as was
May 23, 2025
Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
May 23, 2025 1:20 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.
India CPI Review: Soft Inflation Persists, RBI Gets Breathing Room
May 23, 2025 10:31 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, its lowest since July 2019, led by falling food prices and broad-based disinflation. With CPI below target for a third month, the RBI is poised for more rate cuts amid slowing global growth.
May 22, 2025
Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
May 22, 2025 2:24 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.
May 21, 2025
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
May 21, 2025 1:08 PM UTC
We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to slip below neutral, Services to hold above
May 21, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in manufacturing, to 49.5 from 50.2, but a correction higher on services, to 51.5 from 50.8. Underlying momentum in both series appears to be slowing, though this may fade if trade uncertainty is reduced.
German Data Preview (May 30): Lower Headline as Easter Effect Reverse Services Inflation Surge
May 21, 2025 11:54 AM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression was accentuated by the small (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in April to 2.2%, still a seven-month low. Most notable amid a drop caused by lower m/m fuel prices, was th
May 20, 2025
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - GDP to be revised marginally lower, Core PCE Prices to be revised higher
May 20, 2025 2:54 PM UTC
We expect the second (preliminary) estimate of Q1 GDP to be revised marginally lower to -0.4% from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%, though we also expect an upward revision to core PCE prices, to 3.7% from 3.5%.
May 19, 2025
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on a post-tariff reversal in imports
May 19, 2025 7:25 PM UTC
We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to fall sharply to $110bn from March’s record $163.2bn. While this would be below the deficits seen from December through March, it would remain above each month of 2024 excluding December. In coming months deficits are likely to slip below the pre-D
Preview: Due May 30 - Canada Q1/March GDP - A slower quarter, with risk for further slowing in Q2
May 19, 2025 2:47 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to rise by a five-quarter low of 1.5% annualized, below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report. We expect a 0.1% increase in March GDP, matching an estimate made with February’s data. We expect a slight decline in the preliminary est
Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
May 19, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.
May 16, 2025
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
May 16, 2025 6:44 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in April’s core PCE price index, even softer than a 0.2% core CPI, though risk of a boost from tariffs persists in the coming months. We expect modest 0.3% gains in personal income and spending, which would imply gains of 0.2% in real terms, still some way off a recessionary
Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
May 16, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.