Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. October Personal Income and Spending - A second straight 0.3% from Core PCE Prices

November 15, 2024 5:09 PM UTC

We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.

Preview: Due November 27 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still

November 15, 2024 4:34 PM UTC

We expect a marginal upward revision to 2.9% in the second (preliminary) estimate of Q3 GDP from an already healthy first (advance) estimate of 2.8%. 

Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend still solid

November 14, 2024 2:47 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.

UK CPI Preview (Nov 20): Inflation Back Above Target But Core Pressures Lower

November 13, 2024 11:51 AM UTC

Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021.  This drop was greater than expected and

Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

November 12, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft

India CPI Preview: Food prices to weigh on headline CPI

November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y  due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon

Norges Bank Review: A Tweak in Policy Guidance

November 7, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated.  However, after the widely expected stable policy decision today, the possibility that a cut may

Preview: Due November 22 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slightly weaker, Services still strong

November 6, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

We expect November’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage in manufacturing to a still weak 48.0 from 48.5 but with services unchanged at a healthy 55.0. 

U.S. Election – Initial Thoughts

November 6, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

A Trump victory is now widely expected with results so far and has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher.  Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere -- House race is tigh

Preview: Due November 15 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Trend still solid

November 5, 2024 2:55 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.

U.S. Debt Divergence

November 5, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

Household debt/GDP has fallen noticeably since the GFC to largely counterbalance the rise in government debt/GDP.  However, a surge in household borrowing for consumption with Fed easing is unlikely, as the overall resilience on consumption hides buoyance among wealthy households and a struggle/low

Preview: Due November 14 - U.S. October PPI - Subdued on the month but yr/yr rates edging higher

November 4, 2024 8:09 PM UTC

We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.

Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

November 4, 2024 2:26 PM UTC

We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft

Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. October Housing Starts and Permits - Little change seen with restraint from weather

November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC

We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed. 

FOMC Preview for November 7: A 25bps Easing, Outlook Unclear

November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2

Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Hurricanes and strike to deliver below trend month

October 31, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp

Preview: Due November 1 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Slightly less weak

October 31, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit rebounding after August narrowing

October 30, 2024 4:54 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.

UK Budget Review: Higher Taxes But Still a Marked Fiscal Boost

October 30, 2024 3:24 PM UTC

Despite a focus on hefty tax rises of some 1% of GDP, the Budget also sees borrowing rise by a similar amount so that a sizeable surge in government spending mean this is one of the largest fiscal loosenings in recent decades.  But the boost to GDP growth is temporary and modest and where any impro

Preview: Due October 31 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices may match Core CPI this month

October 30, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

September personal income and spending data will confirm Q3 totals seen with the GDP release, with the only uncertainty being the mix of monthly changes and back month revisions. We look for a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, and a moderate 0.3% rise in personal income which we expect will

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Correcting from a strong September

October 29, 2024 6:53 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.5 from September’s 54.9 outcome that was the highest since February 2023. An October index of 53.5 would still be stronger than most recent months.

Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Slower but still solid with Core PCE Prices consistent with target

October 29, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, slower than Q2’s 3.0% but still maintaining solid momentum. with a slowing in core PCE prices to an on-target 2.0% annualized after gains of 2.8% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q1.

Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Weaker on strike and weather, but perhaps less so than payrolls

October 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which while matching our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls is stronger than our 40k forecast for the more directly comparable private sector non-farm payroll. We expect ADP data to prove less sensitive to

Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rebound from August dip

October 28, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim

Norges Bank Preview (Nov 7): Options A Little More Open?

October 28, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but now largely dissipated.  The Bank has two policy meeting left this year – Nov 7 and Dec 19- but has offered no encouragement

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - Heading for a subdued Q3

October 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.

Preview: Due October 25 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend still close to flat

October 24, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect September durable orders to increase by 0.6% but with a 0.2% decline ex transport, the latter a correction from an above trend 0.5% rise in August, keeping underlying trend close to flat.

EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): Headline Up But Still Below Target and Backed Up By Softer Wages?

October 23, 2024 9:20 AM UTC

Lower energy costs were the main factor behind the sharp fall in HICP inflation, which fell from 2.2% y/y in August to 1.7%, the latter revised down a notch from the flash estimate. This is the first sub-target reading since June 2021.  Services inflation also edged lower, this allowing the core ra

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Finding a base?

October 22, 2024 12:25 PM UTC

We expect a 2.3% increase in September existing home sales to 3.95m, not quite reversing a 2.5% decline seen in August. A recent slowing in trend may soon stabilize with Fed easing starting.

Eurozone Q3 GDP Preview (Oct 30): (Near) Stagnation?

October 22, 2024 12:02 PM UTC

At best, the EZ economy is diverging ever more clearly as Germany falters while Spain prospers.  However, the risks are that the whole of the EZ is weakening.  Indeed, in contrast to ECB and consensus thinking of a second successive quarter of 0.2% q/q GDP growth, we see a clear risk that the EZ e