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July 23, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June, whi
July 23, 2025 10:35 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation possibly accentuating Council divides. Despite adverse energy base effects, we see the flash July HICP staying at June’s 2.0% but up from May’s eig
July 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.
July 22, 2025 9:13 AM UTC
For an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and above trend growth of 1.5% in the year to Q1, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. We think this will continue to be the case even where the looming Q2 data may show a modest con
July 21, 2025 12:49 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.1 ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! But we see no further drop in the July preliminary numbers largely due to adverse energy base effects -
July 17, 2025 5:54 PM UTC
We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q2 GDP, which after a 0.5% decline in Q1 would leave the first half of the year rising at a pace close to 1.0%. A similar pace may be seen in the second half of the year if tariffs persist. Our Q2 forecast has been lifted from 1.4% on a generally improved tone
July 17, 2025 4:06 PM UTC
We expect an advance June goods trade deficit of $101.6bn, up from $96.4bn in May, This would be a second straight increase from April’s $85.9bn low which corrected a surge in the deficit in Q1 ahead of April’s tariff announcement. June’s deficit would be in line with where trend was before th
July 17, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
July 17, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q2 totals due in the GDP report due the day before. Ahead of the GDP report we expect a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, with a weak 0.2% rise in personal income but a solid 0.5% rise in
July 16, 2025 12:08 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase.
July 15, 2025 6:15 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 30 and recent data suggests no reason to move rates from the current 4.25-4.50% level, though Q2 GDP data due on the morning on the decision will impact the wording of the statement. This meeting will not see an update to the dots leaving focus on Chairman Powell’s press con
July 15, 2025 3:30 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 30 and what had been seen as a close call between a 25bps easing and unchanged now looks likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.75%. Continued above target core CPI data and a strong employment report for June argue against easing, though uncertainty remains high with
July 15, 2025 1:34 PM UTC
We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.
July 15, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held its key policy rate stable at 46% on June 19, we believe CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 150-250 bps during the MPC meeting scheduled for July 24 considering the deceleration trend in inflation in June beat forecasts and reinforced ex
July 14, 2025 2:35 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to rise to 1.9% yr/yr after two straight months at 1.7%, the fall to 1.7% from 2.3% in March having been fully due to the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance stable in June, and still above the 2.0% target.
July 14, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe
July 11, 2025 5:03 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a second straight 0.1% decline in May, consistent with the preliminary estimate made with April’s report. However strong June employment growth hints that June’s preliminary estimate could be positive, we expect by 0.1%. This would leave Q2 GDP flat to marginally ne
July 11, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be
July 10, 2025 3:59 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 70k in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a significant correction from a 33k decline in June which was the first decline since March 2023, though still leaving a significant slowing in trend. June’s decline followed subdued gains of 29k i
July 10, 2025 2:53 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r
July 9, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic.
July 9, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late. Indeed, the timing of Easter may have been a partial factor in the May CPI, where a distinct drop back in services and core rates failed to make the headline drop, which instead stayed at 3.4% in line with BoE thinking due to hig
July 9, 2025 1:16 PM UTC
We expect June durable goods orders to fall by 10.5% after a 16.4% surge in May, with the fall, like May’s rise, largely on aircraft. Ex transport orders have been showing much less volatility, but we expect a 0.2% decline in June to correct an above trend 0.5% increase in May.
July 7, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June.