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March 10, 2026
Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high
March 10, 2026 6:06 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.
Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message
March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 10, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.
March 09, 2026
Preview: Due March 10 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Extending a sharp January decline
March 9, 2026 1:49 PM UTC
We expect February existing home sales to fall by 0.8% to extend a sharp 8.4% January decline, to a level of 3.88m, which would be the lowest since October 2010. This would follow a 0.8% decline in January pending home sales, which extended a sharp 7.4% December decline.
March 06, 2026
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q4 GDP - Marginally stronger on housing
March 6, 2026 4:45 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q4 GDP to 1.5% in the preliminary (second) estimate from 1.4% in the advance (first) release, led by an upward revision to housing investment to a 1.7% rise from a 1.5% decline.
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
March 05, 2026
Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels
March 5, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement.
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather adding to downside risk
March 5, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to see a weak month in January, falling by 0.7% overall, with declines of 0.4% ex auto and 0.2% ex auto and gasoline. Bad weather late in the month will contribute to the decline.
March 04, 2026
Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February PPI - Ex food, energy and trade suggests trend at 0.3% per month
March 4, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.3% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% and December’s 0.4%. Ex food and energy we expect a rise of 0.2% after a strong 0.8% January increase. Ex food, energy and trade however, we expect a fourth straight increase of 0.3%, which would signal where trend is.
Preview: Due March 16 - Canada February CPI - Softer in part due to year ago end of a sales tax holiday
March 4, 2026 6:09 PM UTC
We expect February Canadian CPI to slip to a 6-month and on-target low of 2.0% yr/yr (1.96% before rounding) from 2.3% (2.29% before rounding) in January, the slowing mainly due to the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, which lasted from mid-December of 2024 to mid-February of 2025). The Ba
UK GDP Preview (Mar 13): Were Things Getting Better?
March 4, 2026 11:11 AM UTC
Belatedly, some good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year. Even more encouragingly, it may very well enjoy a further rise in the looming January data, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years. But as is famil
March 03, 2026
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 3, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.
Preview: Due March 4 - U.S. February ADP Employment - To pick up after underperforming payrolls in January
March 3, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
We expect a 60k increase in February’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a significant pick up from January’s 22k, which dramatically underperformed a 172k increase in January’s private sector non-farm payroll.
March 02, 2026
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
March 2, 2026 3:54 PM UTC
We expect January durable goods orders to see a second straight moderate decline, of 0.6%, as a November surge in aircraft orders continues to correct, but ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
February 27, 2026
Preview: Due March 13 - Canada February Employment - Employment and Labor force due for a rebound in Ontario
February 27, 2026 8:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 50k in February, more than fully reversing a 24.8k decline in January to keep trend modestly positive. However we expect an even stronger rebound in the labor force from a decline in January to lift the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.5%, while remaining
Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Weaker and not only on weather
February 27, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 6.0% to 1.32m to follow a 6.0% December increase while permits fall by 5.2% to 1.38m to follow a 4.8% December increase. Underlying slowing in demand and bad weather are both likely to contribute to the decline, with the latter impacting starts more than p
Preview: Due March 10 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Extending a sharp January decline
February 27, 2026 5:16 PM UTC
We expect February existing home sales to fall by 0.8% to extend a sharp 8.4% January decline, to a level of 3.88m, which would be the lowest since October 2010. This would follow a 0.8% decline in January pending home sales, which extended a sharp 7.4% December decline.
Preview: Due March 2 - U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - Correcting lower but still positive
February 27, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect February’s ISM manufacturing index to correct lower to 50.5 from January’s sharply improved 52.6, though this would still deliver a second straight positive reading to follow ten straight negatives.
February 26, 2026
Preview: Due March 4 - U.S. February ADP Employment - To pick up after underperforming payrolls in January
February 26, 2026 4:32 PM UTC
We expect a 60k increase in February’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a significant pick up from January’s 22k, which dramatically underperformed a 172k increase in January’s private sector non-farm payroll.
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
February 26, 2026 3:22 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou
Low Inflation and No Loadshedding Continue to Support South African GDP Growth
February 26, 2026 3:19 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q4 2025 GDP growth figures on March 3. Following a 0.5% q/q expansion in Q3 2025, we expect growth momentum to be sustained in Q4. This trajectory is supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, a power cuts (
Preview: Due February 27 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A modest correction from a surprisingly strong Q3
February 26, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to decline by 0.3% annualized, marginally softer than an unchanged estimate made by the Bank of Canada with January’s Monetary Policy report. This would be consistent with December GDP rising by 0.1% as projected with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm
February 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.