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July 31, 2026
Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates
July 31, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
July 31, 2026 3:52 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
July 31, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
July 30, 2026
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
July 30, 2026 7:43 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
Preview: Due August 4 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 30, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $73.5bn, down from $77.6bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026, each of which was close to $55bn.
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Losing momentum
July 30, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, slower than Q1’s 0.9% but matching the Q4 outcome. This would see the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
July 29, 2026
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 29, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 29, 2026 12:46 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
July 28, 2026
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
July 28, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:50 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:49 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
July 27, 2026
Preview: Due August 7 - Canada August Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward
July 27, 2026 3:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.
Preview: Due July 28 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 27, 2026 12:08 PM UTC
We expect an advance June trade deficit of $100.8bn, down from $105.9bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026.
July 24, 2026
Preview: Due July 27 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to bounce, ex transport slower but still firm
July 24, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
We expect a 3.7% increase in June durable goods orders after a 4.5% May decline as aircraft regain strength after a sharp dip in May, with a 0.9% increase ex transport, still firm, but less so than in most recent months.
Trump: Tariffs 2.0
July 24, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
• Replacing section 122 at 10% with section 301 at 10-12.5% is unlikely to have much lasting economic impact in itself. However, the Trump administration are also undertaking section 301 investigation against 16 countries on excess production, with the report and new tariffs expected in A
July 23, 2026
Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
July 23, 2026 4:19 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
July 17, 2026
Preview: Due July 20 - Canada June CPI - Energy to correct lower but BoC core rates seen mostly stable
July 17, 2026 5:39 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to correct lower to 3.0% yr/yr from May’s 3.2% which was the highest since December 2023, with a slowing to 2.98% from 3.23% before rounding. The Bank of Canada’s core rates however are likely to remain mostly stable with CPI-Median at 2.1% and CPI-Trim at 2.0%, both