FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. January S and P PMIs - Rebounding after December dips

January 22, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

We expect some improvement in January’s S and P PMIs, largely reversing slippage in December, manufacturing to 52.5 from 51.8  and services to 54.0 from 52.5.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still

January 21, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%

January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC

January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and  personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

Bank of Canada Preview for January 28: Rate level still appropriate but uncertainty high

January 20, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% on January 28 and reiterate that rates are at about the right level if the economy evolves as expected, while adding that uncertainty remains elevated. We expect that the next BoC move will be a modest tightening, but this will

Preview: Due January 30 - Canada November GDP - Partial reversal of October's dip

January 19, 2026 3:36 PM UTC

We expect November Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s report, when a 0.3% decline was reported. We expect the preliminary estimate for December will also show a modest increase.

Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. January S and P PMIs - Rebounding after December dips

January 15, 2026 4:00 PM UTC

We expect some improvement in January’s S and P PMIs, largely reversing slippage in December, manufacturing to 52.5 from 51.8  and services to 54.0 from 52.5.

South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December

January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still

January 14, 2026 8:12 PM UTC

We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%

January 14, 2026 5:51 PM UTC

January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and  personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. October and November PPI - Moderate gains, with risk of some volatility

January 13, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

October and November PPI will be released together on January 14. Unlike CPI which was not measured in October we will see data for both months, but the October PPI data will be collected on a delay and that adds to the risk of inaccuracy. We expect PPI to rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in Novembe

Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger

January 13, 2026 2:41 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.

Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture

January 12, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend

Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further

January 9, 2026 5:36 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $223bn, down from $251.3bn in Q2 and the narrowest since Q3 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.9%, down from 3.3% in Q2 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues. 

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December

January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December.