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December 05, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Autos to lead a dip
December 5, 2025 8:06 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% decline in October retail sales in September, with autos set to be the main negative after the expiry of a tax credit for electrical vehicle purchases. Elsewhere however we expect subdued data, with a 0.1% increase ex autos and a rise of 0.2% ex autos and gasoline.
FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing
December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d
Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause
December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ
December 04, 2025
Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 4, 2025 7:57 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 4, 2025 2:56 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
December 4, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
December 02, 2025
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October
December 2, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline
December 2, 2025 1:58 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.
December 01, 2025
November 28, 2025
November 27, 2025
Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Economy will Expand by Around 4% in Q3
November 27, 2025 4:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q3 GDP growth on December 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 4.0% YoY backed by investments, strong construction and industry activities in Q3. Of course, growth figure could hit below our expectations due to the we
November 26, 2025
Preview: Due December 1 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
November 26, 2025 2:58 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM manufacturing index to see a modest increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in October, while remaining slightly below September’s 49.1 and below the neutral 50 level for a ninth straight month.
Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive
November 26, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.
November 25, 2025
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October
November 25, 2025 7:06 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.
Preview: Due December 1 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
November 25, 2025 6:23 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM manufacturing index to see a modest increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in October, while remaining slightly below September’s 49.1 and below the neutral 50 level for a ninth straight month.
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
November 25, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline
November 25, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.
Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend modestly positive
November 25, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
We expect September durable goods orders to increase by 1.4% with a 0.5% increase ex transport, a fifth straight modest rise in the latter showing a clearly if not strongly positive trend.
November 24, 2025
Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to 32.0% in November
November 24, 2025 6:43 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 32.9% annually in October, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften to around 32.0% in November backed by moderate food prices while upside-tilted inflation risks continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. We foresee MoM in
EZ HICP Preview (Dec 2): Services Inflation Less Problematic?
November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latte
Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. September PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August
November 24, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju
Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
November 24, 2025 1:23 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. The data was originally schedu
German HICP Preview (Nov 28): Headline and Core To Edge Down Further?
November 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low. But a notch of this rise was reversed in the October number