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January 14, 2026
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still
January 14, 2026 8:12 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 14, 2026 5:51 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
January 13, 2026
Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
January 13, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $223bn, down from $251.3bn in Q2 and the narrowest since Q3 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.9%, down from 3.3% in Q2 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. October and November PPI - Moderate gains, with risk of some volatility
January 13, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
October and November PPI will be released together on January 14. Unlike CPI which was not measured in October we will see data for both months, but the October PPI data will be collected on a delay and that adds to the risk of inaccuracy. We expect PPI to rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in Novembe
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger
January 13, 2026 2:41 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.
January 12, 2026
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 12, 2026 4:31 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 19 - Canada December CPI - Slower even with upward tax distortion
January 12, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
We expect December’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr (2.11% before rounding) from 2.2% in both October and November, with each of the three Bank of Canada core rates slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, leaving the average core rate at its slowest pace since March.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 12, 2026 1:22 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
January 09, 2026
Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
January 9, 2026 5:36 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $223bn, down from $251.3bn in Q2 and the narrowest since Q3 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.9%, down from 3.3% in Q2 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December
January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC
December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December.
January 08, 2026
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
January 8, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 8, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
January 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug
UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?
January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n
January 07, 2026
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. October and November PPI - Moderate gains, with risk of some volatility
January 7, 2026 7:23 PM UTC
October and November PPI will be released together on January 14. Unlike CPI which was not measured in October we will see data for both months, but the October PPI data will be collected on a delay and that adds to the risk of inaccuracy. We expect PPI to rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in Novembe
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 7, 2026 3:58 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme
January 06, 2026
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger
January 6, 2026 7:53 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
January 6, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December S and P services PMI suggests downside risk with its revised level of 52.5 from 52.9 now marginally below November’s ISM services index. Regional Fed service sector surveys are mos
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 6, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 6, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
January 02, 2026
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 2, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 2, 2026 4:21 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme