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August 13, 2025
India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices
August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b
August 12, 2025
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to return to normal, trend marginally positive
August 12, 2025 4:44 PM UTC
We expect July durable goods orders to fall by 4.5%, extending a 9.4% decline in June, but still not quite fully reversing a 16.5% surge in May. Aircraft will continue to lead the moves. Ex transport we expect a 0.1% increase, in line with a trend that is now marginally positive.
August 11, 2025
Preview: Due August 29 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Exports plunge to send GDP lower
August 11, 2025 7:54 PM UTC
We expect Q2 Canadian GDP to fall by 1.0% annualized after five straight gains marginally above 2.0%. This would be slightly stronger than a Bank of Canada forecast of -1.5% but weaker than what monthly GDP data is likely to imply for the quarter, with June seen rising by 0.1%.
UK CPI Preview (Aug 20): Services Inflation Fall Afresh r as Headline Stabilises?
August 11, 2025 2:24 PM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, we see CPI inflation steady at 3.6% in July, 0.2 ppt below BoE thinking. Our relatively lower estimate factors in lower services inflation (Figure 1) and a fall back in that for food, the former allowing the core rate to unwind the increase to 3.7% s
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
August 11, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is
August 06, 2025
UK GDP Preview (Aug 14): Small GDP Rises Hardly Worth Shouting About?
August 6, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
There are some better signs as far as June GDP is concerned, not least it having been the warmest even such month in England. But we see only a 0.1% m/m rise (Figure 1), even with slightly better property and retail signals for the month. However, such an outcome, while a contrast to the two suc
Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Increased weakness
August 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
We expect a July new home sales level of 615k, which would be a 1.9% decline if June’s 0.6% increase to 627k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since November 2023. We may be near a base but significant gains in new home sales are likely to require the start of Fed easing.
Preview: Due August 21 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Maintaining a slowly declining trend
August 6, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to maintain a modestly negative trend with a 0.8% decline to 3.90m. which would be the lowest level since a matching September of 2024. Trends in the housing sector are modestly negative and probably need Fed easing to find a base.
Preview: Due August 19 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Negative underlying trend
August 6, 2025 12:34 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.6%, reversing a similar rise in June which corrected a 9.7% decline in May. We expect permits to confirm a slipping trend with a fourth straight decline, by 3.1% to 1350k. A soft trend is likely to persist unless Fed easing commences.
August 05, 2025
Preview: Due August 19 - Canada July CPI - Lower on gasoline but core rates to remain firm
August 5, 2025 5:59 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 1.9%, taking the pace to the slowest since September 2024, though April’s abolition of the carbon tariff is still depressing yr/yr growth by around 0.6%. July’s dip will be largely on gasoline and we expect little change in the BoC’s core
Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
August 04, 2025
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. June PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions
August 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July.
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports
August 4, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
August 4, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is
RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase
August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC
The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move
July 31, 2025
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports
July 31, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Tariff risks to restrain composite and lift prices
July 31, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slower overall, but stronger in the private sector
July 31, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r
July 30, 2025
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outpace Core CPI
July 30, 2025 1:41 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP report. Ahead of the GDP report we expected a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, with a weak 0.2% rise in personal income but a solid 0.5% rise in personal spending. If these forecasts prove
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Returning to pre-pandemic pace
July 30, 2025 11:42 AM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic.
Turkiye Inflation will Slightly Soften in July: Tax Adjustments and Gas Price Hike in July Will Limit the Fall
July 30, 2025 8:35 AM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 35.1% annually in June, we expect Turkiye’s consumer price index (CPI) will continue to soften moderately in July to 34.1%-34.3% as tax adjustments and energy price hikes in July will limit the downward trend. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling dema