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October 13, 2026
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August
October 13, 2026 5:57 PM UTC
We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.
Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained
October 13, 2026 3:59 PM UTC
After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
October 13, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
October 12, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
October 12, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
October 09, 2026
October 08, 2026
Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
October 8, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.
October 06, 2026
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 6, 2026 11:43 AM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
October 6, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
October 05, 2026
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
October 5, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
October 02, 2026
Preview: Due October 5 - U.S. September ISM Services - Maintaining a fairly steady picture
October 2, 2026 3:12 PM UTC
While the S and P services PMI has accelerated sharply though Q3 after being quite subdued in Q1 and Q2, we expect the ISM services index to maintain a fairly steady profile that has been seen in the year to date, correcting lower to 55.0 from August’s 55.4, which was up from 54.1 in July.
Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
October 2, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
October 01, 2026
Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates
October 1, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O
September 30, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
September 29, 2026
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
September 29, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 29, 2026 12:20 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba