Fed: 50bps Cut and 175bps More to Follow?

September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC

The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting.  This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds

Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Deficit to reach a two year high

September 18, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $259.0bn, or 3.6% of GDP, up from $237.6bn in Q1 when the deficit was 3.4% of GDP. This will be a two year high for the deficit.

Preview: Due September 17 - Canada August CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall further

September 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.

Time Has Come: SARB will Likely Decrease the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19

September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel

FOMC Preview for September 18: A Cautious Start to Easing

September 11, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 18 and with recent data raising concern about emerging labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target, to 5.0-5.25% appears very likely. The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accele

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Subdued, if marginally stronger than in the preceding three months

September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC

We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding  than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the

UK August CPI Preview (Sep 18): Inflation Slips Back and Services Resilience Diminishes Further?

September 9, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence.  Indeed, services inflation fell 0.5 ppt to 5.2%, a two-year low and well below the BoE pro

Preview: Due September 17 - Canada August CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall further

September 5, 2024 6:45 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.

Preview: Due September 6 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Less weak than a weather-restrained July

September 5, 2024 2:55 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 160k, 135k in the private sector, both slightly stronger than respective July gains of 114k and 97k that were probably restrained by weather but below 3-month averages of 170k and 146k, and thus implying a continued modest slowing in trend. We expect

Preview: Due September 12 - U.S. August PPI - In line with a subdued underlying trend

September 3, 2024 2:51 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in August PPI, matching the outcome of July, while the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade both increase by 0.2%, all suggesting a subdued underlying picture. 

UK GDP Preview (Sep 11): More Mixed Messages Ahead as Fiscal Updates Looms

September 3, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

It does seem as if the economy is going to show more positive signs with the July GDP data.  Indeed, we see a 0.2% m/m rise, albeit with the data still showing volatility.  Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only one of the three months of the last quarter, having been flat in June.  Regardl

Bank of Canada Preview for September 4: A Third Straight 25bps Easing

August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i

Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rebound after June dip

August 28, 2024 12:38 PM UTC

We expect July’s advance goods trade deficit to increase to $98.7bn from June’s 96.6bn, leaving it slightly below the May deficit of $99.1bn which was the highest since May 2022.

Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Momentum slowing but not sharply

August 27, 2024 4:37 PM UTC

We expect a 130k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, slightly below the 135k we expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 160k.  Trend