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October 28, 2025

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments to provide support
Paying Article

October 28, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to rise to 51.0 from 50.0, supported by seasonal adjustments. This would be in line with the Q3 average of 50.7 and the Q2 average of 50.8. 

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate
Paying Article

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
Paying Article

October 28, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50. 

October 24, 2025

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline
Paying Article

October 24, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs. 

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FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance
Paying Article

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

October 23, 2025

Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Stronger manufacturing, slower services
Paying Article

October 23, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing seeing renewed upside with a rise to 52.5 from 52.0 but services to see a continued move off its recent high, falling to 53.5 from 54.2.

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months
Paying Article

October 23, 2025 1:47 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2.

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Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p

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EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): No Halloween Horror from HICP Update
Freemium Article

October 23, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Mainly due to unfavourable base effects, EZ inflation has edged up in the last few months, but we think that this is temporary and that a fresh fall, possible to below the 2% target may occur in the October flash numbers – with a formal forecast of a 0.3 ppt drop to 1.9% and the core falling almos

October 22, 2025

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement
Paying Article

October 22, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

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Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Oct 30): Resilience in the Dock?
Freemium Article

October 22, 2025 9:11 AM UTC

As we highlighted repeatedly of late, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. But we think this may shift as the ECB

October 21, 2025

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Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December
Freemium Article

October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September

October 20, 2025

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German HICP Preview (Oct 30): Headline Core To Edge Down as Disinflation Resumes?

October 20, 2025 4:36 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low.  But we see most, if not all, of this rise being reversed in

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
Paying Article

October 20, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

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Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Continue its Easing Cycle on October 23
Paying Article

October 20, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 39%-39.5% during the MPC meeting scheduled for October 23 taking deceleration trend in inflation and relative TRY stability into account. We think CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adjustmen

October 16, 2025

Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Stronger manufacturing, slower services
Paying Article

October 16, 2025 5:21 PM UTC

We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing seeing renewed upside with a rise to 52.5 from 52.0 but services to see a continued move off its recent high, falling to 53.5 from 54.2.

October 14, 2025

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UK CPI Preview (Oct 22): A Final Peak?

October 14, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement
Paying Article

October 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

October 13, 2025

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Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate
Freemium Article

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

October 08, 2025

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
Paying Article

October 8, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

October 07, 2025

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UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness
Freemium Article

October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a

October 02, 2025

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
Paying Article

October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth. 

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Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
Freemium Article

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

October 01, 2025

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August
Paying Article

October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju

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Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate
Paying Article

October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r