Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher

October 29, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ISM Services - Edging higher

October 29, 2026 3:23 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM services index of 55.0, little changed from September’s 54.9, but sustaining a marginal positive bias to recent trend.

Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive

October 29, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.

Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September

October 29, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.

Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation

October 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024. 

Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices

October 28, 2026 11:36 AM UTC

September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is  due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend

October 27, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.

Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further

October 27, 2026 2:54 PM UTC

We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained

October 26, 2026 5:13 PM UTC

After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.

Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August

October 26, 2026 5:08 PM UTC

We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 26-30 October

October 26, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

*Central bank meeting flurry - BoC might disappoint, ECB eyed for tone change, RBNZ seen a cert
*UK Budget may have its critics, but not seen taking any chances
* JPY along with CHF regaining its safety credentials
*France remains a focus, Moody's offers some relief, if a sideshow to the bigger arc

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, 26-30 October

October 26, 2026 7:39 AM UTC

*Central bank meeting flurry - BoC might disappoint, ECB eyed for tone change, RBNZ seen a cert
*UK Budget may have its critics, but not seen taking any chances
* JPY along with CHF regaining its safety credentials
*France remains a focus, Moody's offers some relief, if a sideshow to the bigger arc

Preview: Due November 6 - Canada October Employment - Correction from public sector-led loss

October 25, 2026 5:17 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in a correction from two straight sharp declines, though the rise should be seen as corrective with the economy likely to lose some momentum in Q4 due to fresh US tariffs. We expect unemployment to remain at September’s 6.5% rate, up from 6.4% in Ju

Preview: Due November 6 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Subdued report to hint at Q4 slowing

October 25, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect October’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k and by 45k in the private sector, in line with recent trend. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.2%, sustaining September’s increase after two months at 4.1%. We expect a modest 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a fall in the workweek