Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather

October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month

October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

Preview: Due October 15 - Canada September CPI - To fall below 2% overall, but with pause in BoC core rates

October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - Stable and slightly positive

October 2, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

We expect September’s ISM services index to be unchanged from August’s reading of 51.5, and also almost unchanged from July’s 51.4, and implying only a modest pace of expansion through Q3.

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones

October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI will Continue to Decelerate in September

September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in

Preview: Due October 8 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus

September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC

We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2. 

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due

September 25, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched. 

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones

September 24, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.

Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month

September 23, 2024 4:37 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Manufacturing less weak, Services stronger still

September 20, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

We expect September’s S and P PMIs to show modest improvements, manufacturing to a still negative 48.5 from August’s eight-month low of 47.9, 48.5 from 49.5, and services to 56.0 from 55.7, reaching the highest level since March 2022.

Norges Bank Review: Heads Still in the Sand?

September 19, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

As with the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% and equally unsurprising moderated its previous hawkish rhetoric - slightly. While it still fought against market expectations by suggesting policy will remain on hold until year end it did drop its recent stress

Fed: 50bps Cut and 175bps More to Follow?

September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC

The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting.  This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds

Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices to underperform Core CPI

September 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to unusually outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending.

Preview: Due September 17 - Canada August CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall further

September 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.

Bank Indonesia Preview: Rupiah Defense - BI to Hold Rates, Eye Future Easing

September 16, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead dip, modest slippage seen ex transport

September 13, 2024 3:28 PM UTC

We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.

Time Has Come: SARB will Likely Decrease the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19

September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel

FOMC Preview for September 18: A Cautious Start to Easing

September 11, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 18 and with recent data raising concern about emerging labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target, to 5.0-5.25% appears very likely. The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accele

BoE Preview (Sep 19): A Dovish Hold?

September 11, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Given weakness in private sector jobs data that undermines BoE GDP optimism, and given what we think could be a downside surprise to the BoE in CPI data due the day before the decision, we would not rule out a further BoE rate cut when the MPC gives it next verdict on Sep 19.  More likely, given re

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Subdued, if marginally stronger than in the preceding three months

September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC

We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding  than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the

Norges Bank Preview (Sep 19): Less Hawkish Rhetoric?

September 10, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

As has been the case for the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank is almost certain to keep its policy rate at 4.5% when the Board offers its next verdict on Sep 19.  But amid a slightly disappointing mainland real economy backdrop and what have been softer than (Norges Bank) expectations

UK August CPI Preview (Sep 18): Inflation Slips Back and Services Resilience Diminishes Further?

September 9, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence.  Indeed, services inflation fell 0.5 ppt to 5.2%, a two-year low and well below the BoE pro

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos to correct from weak July

September 6, 2024 4:42 PM UTC

We expect August industrial production to rise by 0.5% after a 0.6% June decline, while manufacturing increases by 0.4% after a 0.3% July decline. Autos are likely to lead the rise after leading the July decline.