UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?

November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak.  Indeed, we see

India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%

November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless

November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone.  As a result, we see September G

Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility

November 3, 2025 3:57 PM UTC

Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months

October 30, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2. The Bank of Canada forecast Q3 GDP at 0.5% annualized.

Indonesia CPI Preview: CPI to edge up in October

October 29, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation rate is set to edge up in October, but the uptick should remain well within the central bank’s comfort zone. For now, BI is expected to stay on hold in its next policy meeting, focusing instead on growth stability and external risks.

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments to provide support

October 28, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to rise to 51.0 from 50.0, supported by seasonal adjustments. This would be in line with the Q3 average of 50.7 and the Q2 average of 50.8. 

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral

October 28, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50. 

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline

October 24, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs. 

FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p