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May 09, 2025
Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives.
Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.
A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi
India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens.
UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero
May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1). But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum
May 06, 2025
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April PPI - A stronger month after a weak March
May 6, 2025 5:05 PM UTC
We expect April PPI to bounce from a weak March with a 0.3% rise overall and a 0.4% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%. Tariffs are likely to continue supporting goods prices while services are likely to correct from a weak March.
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March
May 6, 2025 3:49 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.
May 05, 2025
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Record deficit on pre-tariff import surge
May 5, 2025 12:00 PM UTC
We expect a record March deficit of $140.4bn, up from $122.7bn in February and the previous record of $130.7bn set in January. We expect a marginal 0.1% decline in exports but a surge of 4.4% in imports ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
May 02, 2025
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, but underlying momentum to persist
May 2, 2025 6:22 PM UTC
After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.
Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Trend has little direction
May 2, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
We expect April housing starts to rise by 5.7% to 1400k after a fall of 11.4% in March, while permits fall by 0.5% to 1460k after a 0.5% increase in March. While starts have been more volatile than permits in recent months, trend continues to have little direction.
FOMC Preview for May 7: No change with future policy left data-dependent
May 2, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
In the current exceptionally uncertain environment, the FOMC looks set to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% at its May 7 meeting, and give little away on future policy. This meeting will not see the dots updated. Chairman Powell however at the press conference is likely to signal that future meeting
May 01, 2025
Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few clear signals for labor market weakness
May 1, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average. Initial claims were showing no signs of labor market weakness in the payroll survey week, with a bounce in the latest week not yet a clear change in trend. We expect unemploy
April 30, 2025
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April
April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Record deficit on pre-tariff import surge
April 30, 2025 4:01 PM UTC
We expect a record March deficit of $140.4bn, up from $122.7bn in February and the previous record of $130.7bn set in January. We expect a marginal 0.1% decline in exports but a surge of 4.4% in imports ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Further slippage seen
April 30, 2025 3:05 PM UTC
We expect an April ISM manufacturing index of 48.0, which would be the weakest since October. While the S and P manufacturing index saw an unexpected rise in April most regional manufacturing surveys have been weak, the Philly and Dallas Feds particularly so.
April 29, 2025
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI
April 29, 2025 2:49 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Slightly slower than March, and probably April's payroll
April 29, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be slower than March’s 155k and slightly below the 135k increase we expect from April’s non-farm payroll. However there is little evidence yet of labor market weakness despite the elevated uncert
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - A modest decline, but less steep than trade data implies
April 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC
Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline, largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked a steep fall looks unlikely. We predict a modest GDP decline of
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Slowing trend, though still above pre-pandemic pace
April 29, 2025 12:07 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, on the low side of recent trend. This would see yr/yr growth slow to 3.5%, the slowest since Q2 2021, from 3.8%.
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall
April 29, 2025 12:00 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.
April 28, 2025
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct further, but remain very high
April 28, 2025 12:11 PM UTC
We expect an advance March goods trade deficit of $139.5bn, down from $147.8bn in February and a record $154.6bn in January, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high before the Q1 data was seen. Importers were still trying to beat the tariffs imposed in April.