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October 07, 2024

Preview: Due October 8 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
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October 7, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2. 

October 04, 2024

Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
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October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

October 03, 2024

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Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

October 02, 2024

Preview: Due October 15 - Canada September CPI - To fall below 2% overall, but with pause in BoC core rates
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - Stable and slightly positive
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October 2, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

We expect September’s ISM services index to be unchanged from August’s reading of 51.5, and also almost unchanged from July’s 51.4, and implying only a modest pace of expansion through Q3.

October 01, 2024

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
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October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.

September 30, 2024

Preview: Due October 11 - U.S. September PPI - Energy to slip, core rates seen slightly slower
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Still weak
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC

We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, still weak and almost unchanged from August’s 47.2 and July’s 46.8, and also equal to a weaker S and P manufacturing PMI for September which was the lowest since June 2023.

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI will Continue to Decelerate in September
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in

September 27, 2024

Preview: Due October 8 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC

We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2. 

September 26, 2024

Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 5:03 PM UTC

We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending. GDP revisions suggest back data for personal income will be revised significa

Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower within a widening trend
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend. 

September 25, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2024
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September 25, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2024.

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead dip, modest slippage seen ex transport
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September 25, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched. 

September 24, 2024

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - Stable and slightly positive
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 4:50 PM UTC

We expect September’s ISM services index to be unchanged from August’s reading of 51.5, and also almost unchanged from July’s 51.4, and implying only a modest pace of expansion through Q3.

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August New Home Sales - July bounce unlikely to be sustained
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 4:21 PM UTC

We expect August new home sales to fall by 12.0% to 650k, more than fully reversing a 10.6% July increase that was inconsistent with most signals of housing sector demand. 

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.

September 23, 2024

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Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 4:37 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

September 20, 2024

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. September S&P PMIs - Manufacturing less weak, Services stronger still
Paying Article

September 20, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

We expect September’s S and P PMIs to show modest improvements, manufacturing to a still negative 48.5 from August’s eight-month low of 47.9, 48.5 from 49.5, and services to 56.0 from 55.7, reaching the highest level since March 2022.

September 19, 2024

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Norges Bank Review: Heads Still in the Sand?
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

As with the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% and equally unsurprising moderated its previous hawkish rhetoric - slightly. While it still fought against market expectations by suggesting policy will remain on hold until year end it did drop its recent stress

September 18, 2024

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Fed: 50bps Cut and 175bps More to Follow?
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC

The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting.  This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds

Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slippage to resume
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023. 

Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Deficit to reach a two year high
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $259.0bn, or 3.6% of GDP, up from $237.6bn in Q1 when the deficit was 3.4% of GDP. This will be a two year high for the deficit.

September 17, 2024

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
Paying Article

September 17, 2024 3:42 PM UTC

We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched. 

Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to slip
Paying Article

September 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.

Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

September 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to unusually outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending.

September 16, 2024

Preview: Due September 17 - Canada August CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall further
Paying Article

September 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.

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Bank Indonesia Preview: Rupiah Defense - BI to Hold Rates, Eye Future Easing
Paying Article

September 16, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

September 13, 2024

Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower within a widening trend
Paying Article

September 13, 2024 5:42 PM UTC

We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend. 

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August New Home Sales - July bounce unlikely to be sustained
Paying Article

September 13, 2024 4:41 PM UTC

We expect August new home sales to fall by 12.0% to 650k, more than fully reversing a 10.6% July increase that was inconsistent with most signals of housing sector demand. 

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead dip, modest slippage seen ex transport
Paying Article

September 13, 2024 3:28 PM UTC

We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.

September 12, 2024

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Time Has Come: SARB will Likely Decrease the Key Rate to 8.0% on September 19
Paying Article

September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel

September 11, 2024

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FOMC Preview for September 18: A Cautious Start to Easing
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 18 and with recent data raising concern about emerging labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target, to 5.0-5.25% appears very likely. The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accele

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BoE Preview (Sep 19): A Dovish Hold?
Freemium Article

September 11, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Given weakness in private sector jobs data that undermines BoE GDP optimism, and given what we think could be a downside surprise to the BoE in CPI data due the day before the decision, we would not rule out a further BoE rate cut when the MPC gives it next verdict on Sep 19.  More likely, given re

September 10, 2024

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Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Subdued, if marginally stronger than in the preceding three months
Paying Article

September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC

We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding  than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the

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Norges Bank Preview (Sep 19): Less Hawkish Rhetoric?
Paying Article

September 10, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

As has been the case for the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank is almost certain to keep its policy rate at 4.5% when the Board offers its next verdict on Sep 19.  But amid a slightly disappointing mainland real economy backdrop and what have been softer than (Norges Bank) expectations

September 09, 2024

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UK August CPI Preview (Sep 18): Inflation Slips Back and Services Resilience Diminishes Further?
Freemium Article

September 9, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence.  Indeed, services inflation fell 0.5 ppt to 5.2%, a two-year low and well below the BoE pro

September 06, 2024

Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slippage to resume
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 6:26 PM UTC

We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023. 

Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to slip
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 5:33 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos to correct from weak July
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 4:42 PM UTC

We expect August industrial production to rise by 0.5% after a 0.6% June decline, while manufacturing increases by 0.4% after a 0.3% July decline. Autos are likely to lead the rise after leading the July decline.