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December 12, 2025
Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 12, 2025 4:17 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
December 10, 2025
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 10, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
December 09, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector
December 9, 2025 5:01 PM UTC
The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.
December 08, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S and P PMIs - Only marginally lower, still healthy
December 8, 2025 4:11 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to both see very marginal slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.2 and services to 54.0 from 54.1. These will still leave the picture looking fairly healthy and there is little reason to expect a sharp fall in December, though we do see risks to the economy as le
Preview: Due Decemebr 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue
December 8, 2025 3:29 PM UTC
We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled
December 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b
UK CPI Preview (Dec 17): Down Further from Likely Peak?
December 8, 2025 9:43 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus to 3.6%, the looming November numbers may show a same-sized fall to 3.4%, a six-month low. We see the core rate seen also dropping 0.2 ppt b
December 05, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Autos to lead a dip
December 5, 2025 8:06 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% decline in October retail sales in September, with autos set to be the main negative after the expiry of a tax credit for electrical vehicle purchases. Elsewhere however we expect subdued data, with a 0.1% increase ex autos and a rise of 0.2% ex autos and gasoline.
FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing
December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d
Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause
December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ
December 04, 2025
Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates
December 4, 2025 7:57 PM UTC
We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside.
Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
December 4, 2025 2:56 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
December 4, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
December 02, 2025
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October
December 2, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline
December 2, 2025 1:58 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.
December 01, 2025
November 28, 2025
November 27, 2025
Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Economy will Expand by Around 4% in Q3
November 27, 2025 4:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q3 GDP growth on December 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 4.0% YoY backed by investments, strong construction and industry activities in Q3. Of course, growth figure could hit below our expectations due to the we
November 26, 2025
Preview: Due December 1 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
November 26, 2025 2:58 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM manufacturing index to see a modest increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in October, while remaining slightly below September’s 49.1 and below the neutral 50 level for a ninth straight month.
Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive
November 26, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.
November 25, 2025
Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ISM Services - Correcting from a stronger October
November 25, 2025 7:06 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM services index to correct lower to 52.0 from 52.4 in October which was the highest reading since February. The last twelve readings have seen the index move in the opposite direction to the preceding month.
Preview: Due December 1 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
November 25, 2025 6:23 PM UTC
We expect November’s ISM manufacturing index to see a modest increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in October, while remaining slightly below September’s 49.1 and below the neutral 50 level for a ninth straight month.