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September 11, 2026
Preview: Due September 14 - Canada August CPI - Slightly firmer but with BoC core rates steady
September 11, 2026 6:27 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to edge higher to 3.1% yr/yr from 3.0%, extending the gain from June’s 2.8% but remaining below May’s 3.2%. We also expect a firmer ex food and energy pace at 2.1% from 1.9%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to remain at July’s pace.
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade
September 11, 2026 5:04 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1.
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
September 10, 2026
Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
September 10, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
September 10, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
September 09, 2026
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage
September 9, 2026 12:23 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to see a third straight monthly fall, by 2.0% to 3.98m, which would be the lowest level since a matching June 2025. That would see yr/yr growth slip to -1.2% from a positive 0.7%.
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
September 9, 2026 12:06 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
September 08, 2026
Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3
September 8, 2026 5:43 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3.
September 04, 2026
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
September 03, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
September 3, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
Preview: Due September 4 - Canada August Employment - A moderate month after a very strong one
September 3, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in August, a moderate gain to follow a very strong 75.1k in July, similar to the moderate 18.2k increase in June that followed a very strong rise of 87.8k in May. We expect unemployment to hold at 6.4%, after three straight declines.
September 02, 2026
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage
September 2, 2026 6:44 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to see a third straight monthly fall, by 2.0% to 3.98m, which would be the lowest level since a matching June 2025. That would see yr/yr growth slip to -1.2% from a positive 0.7%.
Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca
September 01, 2026
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC
We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.
August 31, 2026
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
Preview: Due September 14 - Canada August CPI - Slightly firmer but with BoC core rates steady
August 31, 2026 3:48 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to edge higher to 3.1% yr/yr from 3.0%, extending the gain from June’s 2.8% but remaining below May’s 3.2%. We also expect a firmer ex food and energy pace at 2.1% from 1.9%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to remain at July’s pace.
Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so
August 31, 2026 3:19 PM UTC
We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
August 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home
August 31, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor
August 28, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
August 28, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos