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July 14, 2026
FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
July 14, 2026 5:14 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Losing momentum
July 14, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, slower than Q1’s 0.9% but matching the Q4 outcome. This would see the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
July 14, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
July 13, 2026
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
July 09, 2026
Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
July 9, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
July 08, 2026
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
July 8, 2026 5:55 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
July 8, 2026 11:00 AM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
July 06, 2026
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
July 6, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
July 6, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
July 02, 2026
Preview: Due July 20 - Canada June CPI - Energy to correct lower but BoC core rates seen mostly stable
July 2, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to correct lower to 3.0% yr/yr from May’s 3.2% which was the highest since December 2023, with a slowing to 2.98% from 3.23% before rounding. The Bank of Canada’s core rates however are likely to remain mostly stable with CPI-Median at 2.1% and CPI-Trim at 2.0%, both
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
July 2, 2026 5:50 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing
July 2, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
July 2, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.
July 01, 2026
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
June 30, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade
June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 30, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
June 29, 2026
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
June 29, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely
June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 29, 2026 12:10 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
June 26, 2026
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
June 26, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June
June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU