View:
February 20, 2025
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
February 20, 2025 2:50 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
February 20, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9.
February 19, 2025
February 18, 2025
Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
February 18, 2025 6:52 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
February 18, 2025 3:45 PM UTC
We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
February 18, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.
February 17, 2025
Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t
February 14, 2025
Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
February 13, 2025
Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC
India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.
February 12, 2025
Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip.
UK CPI Preview (Feb 19): Inflation Drop to Target Deferred
February 12, 2025 10:27 AM UTC
After the surprisingly soft December data, we think January’s CPI numbers will show some bounce back up, albeit the 0.2 ppt rise we envisage to 2.7% being notch below BoE thinking. This will largely reflect more ‘noise’ in volatile services and higher energy inflation both due to fuel price
February 11, 2025
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
February 11, 2025 7:37 PM UTC
We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
February 11, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a
February 10, 2025
Mexico CPI Review: Inflation Falls as Demand Eases
February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC
Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom
Preview: Due 26 February - U.S. January New Home Sales - A hit from weather
February 10, 2025 4:11 PM UTC
We expect a January new home sales level of 630k, which would be a steep 9.7% decline if December’s 3.6% increase to 698k is unrevised, though we would see any January weakness as likely to be temporary and due to bad weather. October, hit by hurricanes, saw an even steeper 15.3% fall.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
February 10, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9.
Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
February 10, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
February 07, 2025
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
February 7, 2025 7:48 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.
February 06, 2025
Preview: Due February 7 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A slower month given bad weather
February 6, 2025 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch
February 04, 2025
Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
February 4, 2025 5:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t
UK GDP Preview (Feb 13): Weakness Continues, if not Deepens?
February 4, 2025 4:26 PM UTC
Recent data add to already-growing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year. And those questions may be accentuated by the looming December GDP data where we see a flat m/m reading but, combined w
Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
February 4, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ISM Services - Bad weather may deliver a hit
February 4, 2025 1:39 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM services index to slip to 52.5 from 54.0 in December, returning the index to November’s level. Unusually cold weather in much of the country and to a lesser extent the Los Angeles fires provide downside risk.
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
February 4, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ADP Employment - Less sensitive to bad weather than non-farm payrolls
February 4, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is significantly above our 95k increase for January’s private sector non-farm payroll, which is likely to be more sensitive to bad weather than the ADP report. We expect overall non-farm payrolls, inc
January 31, 2025
Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
January 31, 2025 5:12 PM UTC
We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip.
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
January 31, 2025 3:28 PM UTC
We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a
January 30, 2025
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
January 30, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.
Preview: Due January 31 - Canada November GDP - A dip, but Q4 looking stronger than Q3
January 30, 2025 3:14 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.1% decline in November, in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s 0.3% increase. That would suggest a trend of around 0.1% per month. A 0.1% increase in December would leave Q4 marginally below 2.0% annualized, up from 1.0% in Q3. The Bank of Canada
Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
January 30, 2025 2:44 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news, with Q4 totals seen with the GDP report on January 30. Our pre-GDP forecasts for a 0.2% rise in core PCE prices and a 0.4% rise in personal income still look valid, though the GDP data is consistent with a 1.3% rise in person
Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Slightly stronger than Q3, but yr/yr pace still slowing
January 30, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, a marginal acceleration from Q2’s 0.8% which was the slowest since Q2 2021, while matching the gain of Q2.
January 29, 2025
Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. Q4 GDP - Looking weaker after December trade and inventory data
January 29, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
After surprisingly weak December advance goods trade and retail and wholesale inventory data, we have revised our forecast for Q4 GDP down significantly, now expecting a 1.7% annualized rise rather than our previous estimate of 2.6%.
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Continue Decelerating in January
January 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 44.4% annually in December, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 41-42% y/y in January, which will be announced on February 3. We think lagged impacts of monetary tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than expected hike in
January 28, 2025
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ISM Services - Bad weather may deliver a hit
January 28, 2025 4:13 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM services index to slip to 52.5 from 54.0 in December, returning the index to November’s level. Unusually cold weather in much of the country and to a lesser extent the Los Angeles fires provide downside risk.
Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs
January 28, 2025 2:23 PM UTC
We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.
January 27, 2025
Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ADP Employment - Less sensitive to bad weather than non-farm payrolls
January 27, 2025 7:12 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is significantly above our 95k increase for January’s private sector non-farm payroll, which is likely to be more sensitive to bad weather than the ADP report. We expect overall non-farm payrolls, inc
Preview: Due February 7 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A slower month given bad weather
January 27, 2025 6:39 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch
Preview: Due January 28 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Improvement in trend to resume
January 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC
We expect December durable orders to increase by 2.2% overall with a 0.5% increase ex transport. This would suggest some improvement in underlying trend, more than fully reversing November’s declines of 1.2% overall and 0.2% ex transport.
EZ HICP Preview (Feb 3): Headline to Slip Amid Friendlier Core Messages?
January 27, 2025 11:42 AM UTC
There were mixed messages in the December HICP numbers. For a second successive month, the headline rose 0.2 ppt, but to 2.4%, but where the core (again) stayed at 2.7%, partly due to what is seemingly stable services inflation. Once again, higher energy costs, mainly base effects, were the main
January 24, 2025
Preview: Due January 27 - U.S. December New Home Sales - Post-hurricane rebound not yet done
January 24, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
We expect a December new home sales level of 700k, which would be a 5.4% increase if November’s 5.9% increase is unrevised. The two straight gains will still not fully reverse October’s 14.8% decline, a fall that was led by the hurricane-impacted South.
January 23, 2025
Preview: Due January 24 - U.S. December Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest another rise
January 23, 2025 2:30 PM UTC
Strength in pending home sales, reaching their highest level since February 2023 in November, suggests a rise in December existing home sales, we expect by 3.6% to 4.30m, which would be the highest level since February 2024.
Trump and Markets
January 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
Global markets will be driven by policies and current valuation in 2025, especially new Trump administration policies. Trump could jawbone markets for a lower value of the USD and lower oil prices, which could have a temporary modest impact (joint US/Japan FX intervention is possible) but the stru
Preview: Due January 24 - U.S. January S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to pick up, Services to slip
January 23, 2025 2:08 PM UTC
We expect January’s S and P PMIs to show a modest rise in manufacturing, to 50.0 from 49.4, but slippage in services, to 56.0 from 56.8. That December data showed manufacturing stronger than its preliminary reading of 48.3 but services weaker than its preliminary reading of 58.5 may say something
January 22, 2025
China/U.S. - Trade War or Trade Deal?
January 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
· We see the April 1 review of the phase 1 U.S./China trade deal being adverse and President Trump’s carrot and stick approach leading to a 10% rise in tariffs on China imports by the summer. We eventually see a phase 2 U.S./China trade deal being reached in Q4. The main alternative