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October 7, 2024 3:43 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
September 30, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
September 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, still weak and almost unchanged from August’s 47.2 and July’s 46.8, and also equal to a weaker S and P manufacturing PMI for September which was the lowest since June 2023.
September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in
September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
September 26, 2024 5:03 PM UTC
We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending. GDP revisions suggest back data for personal income will be revised significa
September 26, 2024 4:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
September 25, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.
September 25, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched.
September 24, 2024 4:50 PM UTC
We expect September’s ISM services index to be unchanged from August’s reading of 51.5, and also almost unchanged from July’s 51.4, and implying only a modest pace of expansion through Q3.
September 24, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
September 23, 2024 4:37 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
September 20, 2024 1:46 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to show modest improvements, manufacturing to a still negative 48.5 from August’s eight-month low of 47.9, 48.5 from 49.5, and services to 56.0 from 55.7, reaching the highest level since March 2022.
September 19, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
As with the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% and equally unsurprising moderated its previous hawkish rhetoric - slightly. While it still fought against market expectations by suggesting policy will remain on hold until year end it did drop its recent stress
September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC
The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting. This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds
September 18, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
September 17, 2024 3:42 PM UTC
We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched.
September 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.
September 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to unusually outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending.
September 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.
September 13, 2024 5:42 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
September 13, 2024 3:28 PM UTC
We expect August durable orders to fall by 2.0% overall as aircraft return to more normal levels after an extremely weak June was followed by a strong July. Ex transport we expect a second straight 0.2% decline, which would imply some loss of underlying momentum.
September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel
September 11, 2024 3:35 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 18 and with recent data raising concern about emerging labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target, to 5.0-5.25% appears very likely. The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accele
September 11, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
Given weakness in private sector jobs data that undermines BoE GDP optimism, and given what we think could be a downside surprise to the BoE in CPI data due the day before the decision, we would not rule out a further BoE rate cut when the MPC gives it next verdict on Sep 19. More likely, given re
September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC
We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the
September 10, 2024 7:37 AM UTC
As has been the case for the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank is almost certain to keep its policy rate at 4.5% when the Board offers its next verdict on Sep 19. But amid a slightly disappointing mainland real economy backdrop and what have been softer than (Norges Bank) expectations
September 9, 2024 10:49 AM UTC
The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence. Indeed, services inflation fell 0.5 ppt to 5.2%, a two-year low and well below the BoE pro
September 6, 2024 6:26 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
September 6, 2024 5:33 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.
September 6, 2024 4:42 PM UTC
We expect August industrial production to rise by 0.5% after a 0.6% June decline, while manufacturing increases by 0.4% after a 0.3% July decline. Autos are likely to lead the rise after leading the July decline.