Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk

November 25, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to 32.0% in November

November 24, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 32.9% annually in October, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften to around 32.0% in November backed by moderate food prices while upside-tilted inflation risks continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. We foresee MoM in

November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  The latte

Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. September PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August

November 24, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju

November 24, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. The data was originally schedu

German HICP Preview (Nov 28): Headline and Core To Edge Down Further?

November 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low.  But a notch of this rise was reversed in the October number

Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October

November 21, 2025 2:34 PM UTC

Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se

Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy

November 20, 2025 4:05 PM UTC

We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from October improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.

November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag

Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase

November 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023.  The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March.  This release was

Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive

November 17, 2025 6:58 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.

Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target

November 14, 2025 7:15 PM UTC

We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.

UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?

November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak.  Indeed, we see

India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%

November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving

Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target

November 6, 2025 8:13 PM UTC

We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.