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November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2
October 31, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp
October 31, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
October 30, 2024 4:54 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.
October 30, 2024 3:24 PM UTC
Despite a focus on hefty tax rises of some 1% of GDP, the Budget also sees borrowing rise by a similar amount so that a sizeable surge in government spending mean this is one of the largest fiscal loosenings in recent decades. But the boost to GDP growth is temporary and modest and where any impro
October 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, matching the gain of Q2, though with slightly firmer growth in wages and salaries offset by a slowing in benefit costs.
October 30, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
September personal income and spending data will confirm Q3 totals seen with the GDP release, with the only uncertainty being the mix of monthly changes and back month revisions. We look for a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, and a moderate 0.3% rise in personal income which we expect will
October 29, 2024 6:53 PM UTC
We expect October’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.5 from September’s 54.9 outcome that was the highest since February 2023. An October index of 53.5 would still be stronger than most recent months.
October 29, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, slower than Q2’s 3.0% but still maintaining solid momentum. with a slowing in core PCE prices to an on-target 2.0% annualized after gains of 2.8% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q1.
October 28, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim
October 28, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but now largely dissipated. The Bank has two policy meeting left this year – Nov 7 and Dec 19- but has offered no encouragement
October 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.
October 24, 2024 3:55 PM UTC
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
October 23, 2024 12:40 PM UTC
A September new home sales level of 705k, which would be a 1.5% decline if August’s 4.7% decline to 716k is unrevised, a decline that followed a strong 10.3% rise in July to 751k, the highest level since February 2022.
October 23, 2024 12:26 PM UTC
We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal increase in manufacturing, to a still weak 47.5 from 47.3, and a marginal dip in services to a still healthy 55.0 from 55.2.
October 21, 2024 3:47 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which while matching our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls is stronger than our 40k forecast for the more directly comparable private sector non-farm payroll. We expect ADP data to prove less sensitive to
October 21, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
With speculation that the Chancellor faces a £ 40 bln funding gap which will be addressed largely through tax rises, it seems as if the UK economy faces a larger fiscal tightening than was planned under the previous government. However, with promoting growth the policy priority, the Chancellor is
October 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, slower than Q2’s 3.0% but still maintaining solid momentum. Q3’s gain will be led by consumer spending, with a slowing in core PCE prices to an on-target 2.0% annualized after gains of 2.8% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q1.
October 17, 2024 6:28 PM UTC
September personal income and spending data will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q3 totals due with the GDP release the day before. Ahead of the GDP release we look for a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, and a moderate 0.3% rise in personal income which we expect will
October 16, 2024 5:58 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $101.0bn, in a rebound from August’s sharply narrower $94.2bn which corrected a $102.2bn deficit in July, which was the widest since April 2022. This would leave Q3’s deficit wider than Q2’s but only marginally in real terms, implying a lim
October 15, 2024 6:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s October 23 decision looks a close call between a fourth straight 25bps easing to 4.0%, which is our expectation, or a 50bps move to 3.75%. The BoC can feel increasingly confident of core inflation returning to the 2.0% target in 2025, though tentative signs of growth regaini
October 14, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
October 11, 2024 6:16 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, matching the gain of Q2, though with slightly firmer growth in wages and salaries offset by a slowing in benefit costs.
October 11, 2024 4:57 PM UTC
We expect September durable orders to increase by 0.6% but with a 0.2% decline ex transport, the latter a correction from an above trend 0.5% rise in August, keeping underlying trend close to flat.
October 10, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
October 9, 2024 12:26 PM UTC
We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.
October 8, 2024 3:36 PM UTC
A September new home sales level of 705k, which would be a 1.5% decline if August’s 4.7% decline to 716k is unrevised, a decline that followed a strong 10.3% rise in July to 751k, the highest level since February 2022.
October 8, 2024 10:14 AM UTC
Helped by a fall in fuel prices, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated softening in services costs, UK inflation may drop to 1.9% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target since April 2021. Admittedly, the drop in services may be limited to a notch lower from Septembe
October 7, 2024 3:43 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.