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December 20, 2024 2:17 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
December 19, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
December 19, 2024 10:21 AM UTC
Surprising no-one, another (ie eighth successive) stable policy decision was forthcoming at this latest Board decision so that the policy rate at 4.5% has been in place for a year. The statement was more open about policy being eased but only after two more meetings, so that the first cut will com
December 18, 2024 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in December’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which matches our estimate for private sector non-farm payroll growth, though we expect overall non-farm payrolls including government to increase by 175k.
December 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str
December 18, 2024 2:04 PM UTC
We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.
December 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC
We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending.
December 17, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
December 17, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
December 16, 2024 4:04 PM UTC
While the index is unlikely to be quite a strong as the 58.1 S and P services PMI for December, we expect a significant bounce in December’s ISM services index, to 55.5 from November’s weaker 52.1.
December 16, 2024 2:05 PM UTC
After an upward correction in October, we expect downward progress in Canadian CPI to resume in November, with the yr/yr rate slipping to 1.9% from 2.0%, while remaining above September’s 1.6%. We expect downward progress in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to resume too.
December 13, 2024 4:56 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022.
December 13, 2024 3:03 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
December 13, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance November trade deficit of $108.9bn, up from $98.3bn in October and moving above September’s $106.2bn to bring the widest deficit since March 2022.
December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC
The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this
December 12, 2024 5:24 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
December 11, 2024 7:47 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 18 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.25-4.5% range. Fed commentary has generally suggested that rates are moving lower while cautioning against assuming easing at any meeting is a done deal. Absence of major surprises in recent employment and CPI data probably clears the
December 11, 2024 2:06 PM UTC
We expect moderate gains of 0.2% in November PPI, overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. 0.2% gains in the core rates would be on the low side of trend, which remains a little too high to be consistent with inflation returning to the 2.0% target.
December 11, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
While they may not affect the overall BoE verdict on Dec 19, which looks very likely to be a pause after last month’s 25 bp cut (to 4.75%), forthcoming data may very well influence the MPC vote and the message in the updated Monetary Policy Summary. In particular, CPI data (Dec 18) may have some
December 10, 2024 7:31 PM UTC
We expect a November new home sales level of 740k, which would be a 21.3% increase if October’s 17.3% decline to 610k is unrevised. October’s decline came mostly in the South and may have been caused by hurricanes. If so a rebound is likely.
December 10, 2024 6:35 PM UTC
We expect November durable orders to increase by 0.6% overall with a 0.5% increase ex transport. This would be a fourth straight increase ex transport, suggesting some acceleration from what had recently been a fairly flat trend.
December 10, 2024 2:33 PM UTC
We expect November’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall after four straight gains of 0.2% while the ex food and energy rate increases by 0.3% for a fourth straight month. Such an outcome would support concerns that progress in reducing inflation is stalling.
December 10, 2024 11:28 AM UTC
Despite what seems to be an accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated. What seems to be the final nail in the coffin of a rate cut has been the November CPI numbers, higher than consensus bu
December 6, 2024 3:51 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
December 4, 2024 5:09 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022.
December 4, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
December 4, 2024 11:09 AM UTC
There are increasing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. However, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six months of data and worth a cumulative
December 3, 2024 6:41 PM UTC
We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.
December 3, 2024 4:05 PM UTC
After an upward correction in October, we expect downward progress in Canadian CPI to resume in November, with the yr/yr rate slipping to 1.9% from 2.0%, while remaining above September’s 1.6%. We expect downward progress in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to resume too.
December 3, 2024 3:37 PM UTC
We expect a 180k increase in November’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would underperform our 225k estimate for private sector payrolls (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 260k). ADP data was strong at 233k in October, sharply outperforming a 28k decline in private sec
December 3, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect moderate gains of 0.2% in November PPI, overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. 0.2% gains in the core rates would be on the low side of trend, which remains a little too high to be consistent with inflation returning to the 2.0% target.
December 3, 2024 2:11 PM UTC
We expect November’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall after four straight gains of 0.2% while the ex food and energy rate increases by 0.3% for a fourth straight month. Such an outcome would support concerns that progress in reducing inflation is stalling.
December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin
November 28, 2024 2:38 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe
November 26, 2024 3:44 PM UTC
We expect a 180k increase in November’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would underperform our 225k estimate for private sector payrolls (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 260k). ADP data was strong at 233k in October, sharply outperforming a 28k decline in private sec
November 26, 2024 3:36 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
November 26, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.
November 26, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect October durable orders to increase by 1.0% overall following two straight modest declines with a 0.4% increase ex transport. This would be a third straight rise, if slightly slower than in the preceding two months.