Preview: Due November 12 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Deepening weakness

November 2, 2026 4:16 PM UTC

We expect a 3.3% decline in October existing home sales, which would take the level to the lowest since October 2010. Rising mortgage rates in early October are likely to have hit sales.

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Nov 2-6

November 2, 2026 10:03 AM UTC

Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit. Attempted early week bounce but so far only to re-test the break
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scena

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 2-6

October 30, 2026 3:53 PM UTC

Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scenarios would add to risk-off mood

Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive

October 30, 2026 2:58 PM UTC

There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher

October 29, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ISM Services - Edging higher

October 29, 2026 3:23 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM services index of 55.0, little changed from September’s 54.9, but sustaining a marginal positive bias to recent trend.

Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive

October 29, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.

Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September

October 29, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.

Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation

October 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024. 

Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices

October 28, 2026 11:36 AM UTC

September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is  due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend

October 27, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.

Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further

October 27, 2026 2:54 PM UTC

We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained

October 26, 2026 5:13 PM UTC

After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.

Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August

October 26, 2026 5:08 PM UTC

We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.