Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly

March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC

We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend

March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement

March 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr

March 30, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?

March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data.  We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections.  But both it

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly

March 24, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February

March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further

March 24, 2026 12:39 PM UTC

We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues. 

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S and P PMIs - Middle East bringing downside risk

March 23, 2026 12:09 PM UTC

We expect slippage in March’s S and P PMIs, with manufacturing and services both falling to a marginally positive 51.0, from 51.6 and 51.7 respectively in February.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr

March 20, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.

Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high

March 18, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.

Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February PPI - Ex food, energy and trade suggests trend at 0.3% per month

March 17, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by 0.3% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% and December’s 0.4%. Ex food and energy we expect a rise of 0.2% after a strong 0.8% January increase. Ex food, energy and trade however, we expect a fourth straight increase of 0.3%, which would signal where trend is.