Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy

November 20, 2025 4:05 PM UTC

We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from October improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.

November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag

Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase

November 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023.  The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March.  This release was

Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive

November 17, 2025 6:58 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.

Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target

November 14, 2025 7:15 PM UTC

We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.

UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?

November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak.  Indeed, we see

India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%

November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless

November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone.  As a result, we see September G

Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility

November 3, 2025 3:57 PM UTC

Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months

October 30, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2. The Bank of Canada forecast Q3 GDP at 0.5% annualized.

Indonesia CPI Preview: CPI to edge up in October

October 29, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation rate is set to edge up in October, but the uptick should remain well within the central bank’s comfort zone. For now, BI is expected to stay on hold in its next policy meeting, focusing instead on growth stability and external risks.

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments to provide support

October 28, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to rise to 51.0 from 50.0, supported by seasonal adjustments. This would be in line with the Q3 average of 50.7 and the Q2 average of 50.8.