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September 16, 2025 3:36 PM UTC
We expect August data to show 0.3% gains in both overall and core PCE prices, with personal income also up by 0.3% and personal spending slightly stronger at 0.4%. The data will incorporate historical revisions through Q2 due with the annual GDP revision scheduled for September 25.
September 16, 2025 2:44 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $96.0bn, down from $102.8bn in July and slightly wider than the average of July and June’s $84.5bn. The deficit will be similar to May’s and well below the Q1-pre-tariff levels, but not far from the pre-election trend.
September 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Weakness a year ago is likely to see August Canadian CPI picking up on a yr/yr basis, we expect to 2.0% from 1.7%. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain fairly stable, and above the 2.0% target.
September 15, 2025 12:16 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.2% increase in August retail sales restrained by a correction lower in auto sales. However we expect the core rates ex autos and ex autos and gasoline to maintain trend with gains of 0.4%.
September 12, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
We do expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.
September 12, 2025 5:13 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to slip, manufacturing to 51.5 from 53.0 and services to 53.5 from 54.5. We expect slippage more because recent strength looks difficult to sustain rather than because of any clear signals for weakness.
September 12, 2025 1:22 PM UTC
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in
September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i
September 10, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
We expect August durable goods orders to fall by 1.0% in a third straight fall, though still not fully reversing a surge of 16.6% in May, while ex transport orders fall by 0.5% in a correction from a 1.0% July increase, that was the strongest of three straight gains.
September 10, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
We expect August CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.37% and 0.31%. This would be the second straight gains slightly above 0.3% in the core rate with the impact of tariffs starting to escalate.
September 10, 2025 9:05 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Partly due to rounding and fuel (and possibly food) costs, we see the headline rising a notch to 3.9% in the August figure, this foresh
September 9, 2025 6:26 PM UTC
After the Bank of Canada’s last meeting on July 30 we expected rates to be left on hold in September before easing resumed in October. However with data since that meeting having been mostly weak, a 25bps easing, the first move since March, now looks likely at the September 17 meeting, to 2.5%. We
September 9, 2025 2:58 PM UTC
We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk.
September 9, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
The preliminary estimate for the downward revision to the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark at -911k is steeper than generally than expected and exceeds even the unusually sharp 818k negative revision reported a year ago for the March 2024 benchmark. The data will be incorporated into the Januar
September 9, 2025 12:40 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to rise by 0.3% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, moderate gains after shocking surges of 0.9% in each series in July, which broke a string of mostly subdued outcomes from February through June. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a 0.3% increase to follow a 0.6% rise in Jul
September 8, 2025 7:12 PM UTC
We expect August existing home sales to slip by 2.5% to 3.91m to resume a modestly negative trend after a 2.0% increase in July. This would take the level to its lowest since September 2024.
September 8, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
Tuesday sees the release of the preliminary Labor Dep’t estimate for the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark, with expectations for a significant negative, possibly as large as the -818k preliminary estimate for the March 2024 benchmark delivered a year ago. The eventual revision to March 2024 p
September 4, 2025 6:53 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.2% increase in August retail sales restrained by a correction lower in auto sales. However we expect the core rates ex autos and ex autos and gasoline to maintain trend with gains of 0.4%.
September 4, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st
September 3, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
We expect an increase in August’s ISM services index to 51.5, up from 50.1 in July but still keeping the index in the subdued 49.9 to 51.6 range that has been seen since March.
September 3, 2025 12:39 PM UTC
We expect a July goods trade deficit of $79.2bn, up from $60.2bn in June. The deficit will compare to a Q2 average of $64.0bn but remain well below Q1’s pre-tariff average of $130.2bn. It will be similar to where trend was before the November election result signaled higher tariffs were coming.
September 3, 2025 12:23 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 60k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a slowing from 104k in July which outperformed the non-farm payroll, with July’s improved data looking in part corrective from a 23k decline in June.