View:
November 06, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 9-13
November 6, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempts to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX ri
November 05, 2026
Preview: Due November 6 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Subdued report to hint at Q4 slowing
November 5, 2026 4:01 PM UTC
We expect October’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k and by 45k in the private sector, in line with recent trend. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.2%, sustaining September’s increase after two months at 4.1%. We expect a modest 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a fall in the workweek
Preview: Due November 6 - Canada October Employment - Correction from public sector-led loss
November 5, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in a correction from two straight sharp declines, though the rise should be seen as corrective with the economy likely to lose some momentum in Q4 due to fresh US tariffs. We expect unemployment to remain at September’s 6.5% rate, up from 6.4% in Ju
November 03, 2026
Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
November 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
November 3, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.
November 02, 2026
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
November 2, 2026 6:53 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
November 2, 2026 6:53 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Nov 2-6
November 2, 2026 10:03 AM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit. Attempted early week bounce but so far only to re-test the break
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scena
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Nov 2-6
November 2, 2026 5:00 AM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scenarios would add to risk-off mood
October 30, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 2-6
October 30, 2026 3:53 PM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scenarios would add to risk-off mood
Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive
October 30, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.
October 29, 2026
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
October 29, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive
October 29, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.
Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
October 29, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Slower but with yr/yr growth stable
October 29, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slower than two preceding quarters at 0.9% but leaving yr/yr growth stable at 3.4% for a third straight quarter.
October 28, 2026
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation
October 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024.
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 28, 2026 11:36 AM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
October 27, 2026
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
October 27, 2026 6:56 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
October 27, 2026 6:55 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
October 27, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.
Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
October 27, 2026 2:54 PM UTC
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.