Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds

May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds. 

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March

May 12, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.

UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?

May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March.  Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo

Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. May S and P PMIs - Manufacturing to correct lower, services stable but subdued

May 11, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

We expect a correction lower in May’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 53.5 from 54.5, but an unchanged S and P services PMI at a still subdued 51.0.

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion

May 11, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2

May 8, 2026 6:34 PM UTC

We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.

Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April

May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp

Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds

May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds. 

Preview: Due May 8 - Canada April Employment - A modest gain with stable unemployment

May 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in March, a second straight modest rise to follow a gain of 14.1k in March, still not close to erasing the steep loss of 83.9k in February which extended a substantial 24.8k decline in January. We expect a 6.7% unemployment rate for a third straight m

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates

May 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe

Preview: Due May 11 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - An upward correction but trend may be slowing

May 5, 2026 5:43 PM UTC

We expect existing home sales to maintain a recent choppy pattern in April, with a 2.0% increase to 4.06m, in a partial correction from a 3.6% decline in March. Underlying trend is probably starting to slip as inflation fears reduce Fed easing prospects, even if our forecast implies the first positi

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)

May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise

May 5, 2026 12:01 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l

UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?

May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC

Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months.  This is likely to have been ab

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March

May 4, 2026 5:31 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core

May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus

May 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo