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January 09, 2026
Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
January 9, 2026 5:36 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $223bn, down from $251.3bn in Q2 and the narrowest since Q3 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.9%, down from 3.3% in Q2 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December
January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC
December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December.
January 08, 2026
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
January 8, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 8, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
January 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug
UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?
January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n
January 07, 2026
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. October and November PPI - Moderate gains, with risk of some volatility
January 7, 2026 7:23 PM UTC
October and November PPI will be released together on January 14. Unlike CPI which was not measured in October we will see data for both months, but the October PPI data will be collected on a delay and that adds to the risk of inaccuracy. We expect PPI to rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in Novembe
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 7, 2026 3:58 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme
January 06, 2026
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger
January 6, 2026 7:53 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
January 6, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December S and P services PMI suggests downside risk with its revised level of 52.5 from 52.9 now marginally below November’s ISM services index. Regional Fed service sector surveys are mos
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 6, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 6, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
January 02, 2026
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 2, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 2, 2026 4:21 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme
Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
January 2, 2026 3:05 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 2, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
December 23, 2025
U.S. Q3 GDP: Better Than Expected, But
December 23, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
Q3 GDP came in better than expected due to a big net export contribution to growth. Gross domestic purchases at 2.7% were more in line with expectations, with mixed performance in key expenditure sectors. We see growth slowing in Q4, with net exports unlikely to repeat the Q3 outcome and consume
December 22, 2025
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower
December 22, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December
December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese
December 19, 2025
EZ HICP Preview (Jan 7): Is Services Inflation Problematic?
December 19, 2025 11:10 AM UTC
HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. But we see the headline rate falling out of that range in December to 1.9%, this preceding what may be a short-lived fall toward 1.5% in H1 2026. Som