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May 29, 2026
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
May 29, 2026 3:28 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 29, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
May 28, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 28, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
May 27, 2026
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
May 27, 2026 5:27 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 27, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
May 27, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 27, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 27, 2026 12:27 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 27, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?
May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise. Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4
May 26, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
May 22, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture
May 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.
May 20, 2026
Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
May 20, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.
May 19, 2026
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 19, 2026 2:48 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
May 18, 2026
Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe
May 15, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 15, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
May 14, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 14, 2026 4:17 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 14, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
May 13, 2026
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.