Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock

April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ

FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold

April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S and P PMIs - Slightly firmer despite Middle East risk

April 22, 2026 12:33 PM UTC

We expect modest increases in April’s S and P PMIs, manufacturing to a healthy 52.5 from 52.3 and services to a neutral 50.0 after March’s 49.8 fell below neutral for the first time since January 2023.

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger

April 21, 2026 5:31 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI

April 21, 2026 2:38 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same  time and to which it will contribute.  We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in

EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?

April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led.  Indeed, thi

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?

April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing.  Indeed, part of a broad

Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued

April 20, 2026 12:16 PM UTC

We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.

Preview: Due April 20 - Canada March CPI - Higher on energy but BoC core rates seen close to stable

April 17, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.8% yr/yr from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest since May 2024. We expect ex food and energy CPI to also pick up, to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.0%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to be close to stable, still slightly above the 2.0% targe

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S and P PMIs - Slightly firmer despite Middle East risk

April 16, 2026 2:23 PM UTC

We expect modest increases in April’s S and P PMIs, manufacturing to a healthy 52.5 from 52.3 and services to a neutral 50.0 after March’s 49.8 fell below neutral for the first time since January 2023.

Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March

April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st

Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense

April 14, 2026 3:38 PM UTC

We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.

UK CPI Preview (Apr 22): Inflation Being Fuelled But Watch Financial Conditions?

April 13, 2026 2:39 PM UTC

The stormy weather inflation wise is now very evident, most notably in UK fuel prices surging. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching both consensus and BoE projections we see it jumping to 3.5% in March.  Services, however, may stay at 4.3% which was a four-year

Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2

April 10, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

Preview: Due April 10 - Canada March Employment - Highly volatile, but trend still looks modestly positive

April 9, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 40k in March, in a correction from an exceptionally large decline of 83.9k in February which may have been influenced by weather. While the data has been very volatile, underlying trend is probably still moderately positive. We expect an unemployment rate

UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?

April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC

Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers.  There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were

Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture

April 8, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by