Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI

March 27, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p

German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?

March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%.  This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation.  Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp

Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain

March 25, 2025 12:10 PM UTC

We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic

March 24, 2025 6:35 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.

Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December

March 24, 2025 5:39 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction

March 24, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher

March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?

March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower

March 17, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative. 

Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI

March 17, 2025 4:15 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p

Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite

March 14, 2025 4:15 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best. 

Preview: Due March 17 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Only a partial reversal of January's drop

March 14, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 0.5% in February in what would be only a partial reversal of a 0.9% decline in January. Ex autos we expect a 0.3% increase after a 0.4% January decline while ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.4% increase after a 0.5% January decline.

Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Another record deficit

March 13, 2025 5:01 PM UTC

We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $325.0bn, or 4.4% of GDP, up from the record $310.9bn in Q3 when the deficit was 4.2% of GDP. This will be a fresh record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q1 2022.

FOMC Preview for March 19: No change and few clear signals given exceptional uncertainty

March 12, 2025 6:46 PM UTC

In the current exceptionally uncertain environment, the FOMC looks set to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% at its March 19 meeting, and give little away on future policy. The dots will be closely watched but we expect they will change little from January 29. Powell is likely to stress at the press

Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. February PPI - Similar to January, upside risk in core goods

March 12, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

We expect February PPI to increase by 0.3% overall, and in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be a slowing from a 0.4% January increase overall, but each core rate would match their January outcomes.

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. February CPI - Not as firm as January, but upside risks persist

March 11, 2025 12:10 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the gains before rounding being 0.29% overall and 0.32% ex food and energy. The gains will be less strong than in January but a tendency for early year data to be strong is likely to persist. Tariffs on China wi

Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, Permits starting to slip

March 7, 2025 3:33 PM UTC

We expect February housing starts to rise by 2.5% to 1400k following a weather-depressed 9.8% decline in January, but permits to fall by 1.6% to 1450k. This would be a third straight fall. 

Preview: Due March 17 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Only a partial reversal of January's drop

March 7, 2025 2:53 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 0.5% in February in what would be only a partial reversal of a 0.9% decline in January. Ex autos we expect a 0.3% increase after a 0.4% January decline while ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.4% increase after a 0.5% January decline.

U.S.-Canada trade, Lutnick and Trump

March 6, 2025 4:12 PM UTC

Commerce Secretary Lutnick states Trump is likely to defer tariffs on all USMCA goods which he believes is more than half of the total with Canada and Mexico. Canada however says retaliation will stay until all US tariffs are removed. We are looking at reducing rather than removing the damage.

Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December

March 6, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.

Bank of Canada Preview for March 12: Tariff risks justify a further 25bps easing

March 5, 2025 5:51 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 12, and while the tariff picture is still anything but clear, we expect a 25bps easing to 2.75%. The economic damage done by the ongoing tension is already likely to be significant, and may become seriously so. Inflationary risks have increased, and the Canadian eco

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Trade Balance - Record deficit as imports surge ahead of tariffs

March 5, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

We expect a record January trade deficit of $129.6bn, up sharply from December’s $98.4bn and well above the previous record of $101.9bn seen in March 2022. 

Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. February PPI - Similar to January, upside risk in core goods

March 4, 2025 7:07 PM UTC

We expect February PPI to increase by 0.3% overall, and in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be a slowing from a 0.4% January increase overall, but each core rate would match their January outcomes.

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. February CPI - Not as firm as January, but upside risks persist

March 4, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the gains before rounding being 0.29% overall and 0.32% ex food and energy. The gains will be less strong than in January but a tendency for early year data to be strong is likely to persist. Tariffs on China wi

Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise

February 26, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.