Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No significant revision

April 8, 2026 12:07 PM UTC

We expect the final estimate of Q4 GDP to see no significant revisions, with marginal upward revisions to construction insufficient to lift the annualized gain from the preliminary 0.7%.

Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued

April 7, 2026 6:15 PM UTC

We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.

Preview: Due April 20 - Canada March CPI - Higher on energy but BoC core rates seen close to stable

April 7, 2026 4:05 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.8% yr/yr from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest since May 2024. We expect ex food and energy CPI to also pick up, to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.0%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to be close to stable, still slightly above the 2.0% targe

Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm

April 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.

Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2

April 2, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued

April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March

April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly

March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC

We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend

March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement

March 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr

March 30, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.