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November 12, 2026
Preview: Due December 4 - Canada November Employment - Avoiding a fourth straight decline
November 12, 2026 6:49 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 15k in a correction from three straight declines. GDP growth is likely to be slow in Q4 due to US tariffs but is unlikely to be negative, and that argues against a negative employment trend. We expect unemployment to slip back to 6.6% from 6.7%, while rem
Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. October New Home Sales - Several signals for weakness
November 12, 2026 5:56 PM UTC
We expect a 6.1% decline in October new home sales to 635k, which would be the lowest level since February. Even this would leave new home sales looking more resilient than other measures of housing demand.
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
November 12, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
November 11, 2026
Preview: Due November 17 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Momentum solid but some risk of slowing
November 11, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect October retail sales to rise by 0.2% overall and by 0.4% ex autos, with a 0.3% increase ex auto and gasoline. There is some risk that Q3’s impressive resilience in retail sales will fade in Q4, but we do not expect October data to give any strong signals of that.
Preview: Due November 17 - U.S. October Retail Sales - Momentum solid but some risk of slowing
November 11, 2026 1:14 PM UTC
We expect October retail sales to rise by 0.2% overall and by 0.4% ex autos, with a 0.3% increase ex auto and gasoline. There is some risk that Q3’s impressive resilience in retail sales will fade in Q4, but we do not expect October data to give any strong signals of that.
November 09, 2026
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
November 9, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Nov 9-13
November 9, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempted to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX r
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Nov 9-13
November 9, 2026 7:40 AM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempted to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX r
November 06, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 9-13
November 6, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempts to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX ri
November 05, 2026
Preview: Due November 6 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Subdued report to hint at Q4 slowing
November 5, 2026 4:01 PM UTC
We expect October’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k and by 45k in the private sector, in line with recent trend. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.2%, sustaining September’s increase after two months at 4.1%. We expect a modest 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a fall in the workweek
Preview: Due November 6 - Canada October Employment - Correction from public sector-led loss
November 5, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in a correction from two straight sharp declines, though the rise should be seen as corrective with the economy likely to lose some momentum in Q4 due to fresh US tariffs. We expect unemployment to remain at September’s 6.5% rate, up from 6.4% in Ju
November 03, 2026
Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
November 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
November 3, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.
November 02, 2026
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
November 2, 2026 6:53 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
November 2, 2026 6:53 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Nov 2-6
November 2, 2026 10:03 AM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit. Attempted early week bounce but so far only to re-test the break
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scena
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Nov 2-6
November 2, 2026 5:00 AM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scenarios would add to risk-off mood
October 30, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 2-6
October 30, 2026 3:53 PM UTC
Pressure on tech, leading to choppy action, but overall weight on dollar; JPY and CHF benefit
BoE hike seen as more of a one off and possible one-and-done.
US election a wild card, though no settled view on impact. At margin, some scenarios would add to risk-off mood
Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive
October 30, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.
October 29, 2026
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
October 29, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.