Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI

December 19, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending. 

Norges Bank Review: Caution Prevails

December 19, 2024 10:21 AM UTC

Surprising no-one, another (ie eighth successive) stable policy decision was forthcoming at this latest Board decision so that the policy rate at 4.5% has been in place for a year.  The statement was more open about policy being eased but only after two more meetings, so that the first cut will com

Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Seen matching payrolls, but recent bias to outperform

December 18, 2024 3:20 PM UTC

We expect a 140k increase in December’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which matches our estimate for private sector non-farm payroll growth, though we expect overall non-farm payrolls including government to increase by 175k.

Preview: Due January 10 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Closer to solid underlying trend

December 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

We expect 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with 140k in the private sector, a number that should be closer to underlying trend than a strong November and a weak October. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to a 0.3% increase after two str

Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest another rise

December 18, 2024 2:04 PM UTC

We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.

Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI

December 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC

We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending. 

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen

December 17, 2024 2:44 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.

Preview: Due December 17 - Canada November CPI - Renewed slippage after correction higher in October

December 16, 2024 2:05 PM UTC

After an upward correction in October, we expect downward progress in Canadian CPI to resume in November, with the yr/yr rate slipping to 1.9% from 2.0%, while remaining above September’s 1.6%. We expect downward progress in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to resume too.

Preview: Due December 17 - U.S. November Retail Sales - Trend still solid

December 16, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in November, with a 0.6% increase overall with 0.5% gains both ex auto and ex auto and gasoline. 

Preview: Due December 27 - U.S. November Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit, exports and imports to rebound from October dips

December 13, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

We expect an advance November trade deficit of $108.9bn, up from $98.3bn in October and moving above September’s $106.2bn to bring the widest deficit since March 2022.

UK GDP Review: Friday the 13th Weakness Confirmed?

December 13, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

The latest GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations, this

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen

December 12, 2024 5:24 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.

FOMC Preview for December 18: A Cautious 25bps Easing

December 11, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on December 18 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.25-4.5% range. Fed commentary has generally suggested that rates are moving lower while cautioning against assuming easing at any meeting is a done deal. Absence of major surprises in recent employment and CPI data probably clears the

Preview: Due December 12 - U.S. November PPI - Core rates slightly below trend after slightly above trend October

December 11, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

We expect moderate gains of 0.2% in November PPI, overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. 0.2% gains in the core rates would be on the low side of trend, which remains a little too high to be consistent with inflation returning to the 2.0% target.

UK CPI & BoE Preview (Dec 18-19): Benign Inflation Signals But BoE Still Cautious

December 11, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

While they may not affect the overall BoE verdict on Dec 19, which looks very likely to be a pause after last month’s 25 bp cut (to 4.75%), forthcoming data may very well influence the MPC vote and the message in the updated Monetary Policy Summary.  In particular, CPI data (Dec 18) may have some

Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. November CPI - Progress showing signs of stalling

December 10, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

We expect November’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall after four straight gains of 0.2% while the ex food and energy rate increases by 0.3% for a fourth straight month. Such an outcome would support concerns that progress in reducing inflation is stalling.

Norges Bank Preview (Dec 19): Still Resistant

December 10, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

Despite what seems to be an accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated.  What seems to be the final nail in the coffin of a rate cut has been the November CPI numbers, higher than consensus bu

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips

December 6, 2024 3:51 PM UTC

We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.

Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike

December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at

Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S&P PMIs - Correcting November improvements

December 4, 2024 5:09 PM UTC

We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022. 

Preview: Due December 17 - U.S. November Retail Sales - Trend still solid

December 4, 2024 4:36 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in November, with a 0.6% increase overall with 0.5% gains both ex auto and ex auto and gasoline. 

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months

December 4, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.

UK GDP Preview (Dec 13): Friday the 13th Weakness?

December 4, 2024 11:09 AM UTC

There are increasing questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  However, GDP growth has been positive in only two of the last six months of data and worth a cumulative

Preview: Due December 12 - U.S. November PPI - Core rates slightly below trend after slightly above trend October

December 3, 2024 2:47 PM UTC

We expect moderate gains of 0.2% in November PPI, overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. 0.2% gains in the core rates would be on the low side of trend, which remains a little too high to be consistent with inflation returning to the 2.0% target.

Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. November CPI - Progress showing signs of stalling

December 3, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

We expect November’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall after four straight gains of 0.2% while the ex food and energy rate increases by 0.3% for a fourth straight month. Such an outcome would support concerns that progress in reducing inflation is stalling.

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months

December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.

Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened

December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin

Preview: Due November 29 - Canada Q3/September GDP - A subdued quarter with a stronger finish

November 28, 2024 2:38 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe

Preview: Due December 4 - U.S. November ADP Employment - October suggested underlying strength

November 26, 2024 3:44 PM UTC

We expect a 180k increase in November’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would underperform our 225k estimate for private sector payrolls (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 260k). ADP data was strong at 233k in October, sharply outperforming a 28k decline in private sec

Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike

November 26, 2024 3:36 PM UTC

We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at