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June 20, 2025
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
June 20, 2025 5:38 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
June 20, 2025 1:31 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections lower after May gains, but remaining positive
June 20, 2025 1:27 PM UTC
We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show modest corrections lower to correct May improvements, which contrasted weaker data from the ISM surveys in May. However the corrections, manufacturing to 51.0 from 52.0, and services to 53.0 from 53.7, should be moderate enough to suggest scope for gains in Ju
June 17, 2025
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - Another marginal upward revision, but still negative
June 17, 2025 7:26 PM UTC
We expect the third (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised marginally higher to -0.1% from the second (preliminary) estimate of -0.2%. This would follow an upward revision from the first (advance) estimate of -0.3%.
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to extend correction from March record
June 17, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
We expect May’s advance goods trade deficit to fall to $79.5bn from $87.0bn in April, extending the sharp correction from the record $162.0bn deficit seen in March as imports surged ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
Preview: Due June 27 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
June 17, 2025 3:02 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in May’s core PCE price index, matching to core CPI, continuing to show limited tariff pass-through. Subdued data are also likely from personal income, which we expect to be unchanged, and personal spending, where we expect a 0.1% decline.
Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiples to lead modest declines
June 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
We expect May housing starts to see a modest fall of 0.8% to 1350k to follow a 1.6% April increase, while permits fall by 1.5% to 1400k after a drop of 4.0% in April. Trend now looks marginally negative though the May declines are likely to be led by the volatile multiples sector.
June 16, 2025
Preview: Due Jun 26 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Strong rise but fully on aircraft
June 16, 2025 6:05 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods to rise by 6.7% overall, with the rise likely to be fully due to a surge in aircraft orders as implied by Boeing data. We expect ex transport orders to rise by a marginal 0.1%, and transport orders to be negative outside aircraft.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections lower after May gains, but remaining positive
June 16, 2025 4:15 PM UTC
We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show modest corrections lower to correct May improvements, which contrasted weaker data from the ISM surveys in May. However the corrections, manufacturing to 51.0 from 52.0, and services to 53.0 from 53.7, should be moderate enough to suggest scope for gains in Ju
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, underlying momentum subdued
June 16, 2025 12:07 PM UTC
We expect a 0.7% decline in May retail sales as auto sales show a sharp reversal from recent strength. Ex autos we expect a subdued 0.1% increase, with a 0.2% rise ex autos and gasoline. Both of these outcomes would match those of April.
June 13, 2025
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May New Home Sales - April strength unlikely to be sustained
June 13, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
June 13, 2025 4:46 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.
India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger
June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven.
June 12, 2025
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to surge but to reverse in Q2
June 12, 2025 5:06 PM UTC
We expect a record Q1 US current account deficit of $430bn, up from $303.9bn in Q4, which will probably be revised a little lower. The rise in the deficit will be largely on a pre-tariff surge in goods imports and is likely to be reversed in Q2. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 5.7%, up f
June 11, 2025
FOMC Preview for June 18: No change in rates or dots, only marginal changes to statement and forecasts
June 11, 2025 4:01 PM UTC
The June 18 FOMC meeting looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. We expect only marginal changes to May’s statement and the Fed’s median forecasts from March, with no change at all in the median dots on rates. Chairman Powell at the press conference may welcome recent signal
Preview: Due June 12 - U.S. May PPI - A correction from a weak April, which may be revised
June 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
We expect May PPI to see a modest bounce from a weak April with a 0.2% rise overall and a 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.2%. April fell by 0.5% overall and ex food and energy, but by only 0.1% ex food, energy and trade. A weak March was revised u
UK CPI Preview (Jun 18): Services Inflation to Fall Clearly?
June 11, 2025 7:03 AM UTC
The UK and the rest of the DM world have been decoupling, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK has undergone a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below. Regardless, as for the UK, the main near-term inflation story was (and r
June 10, 2025
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May CPI - Tariff impact still modest, but starting to build
June 10, 2025 1:03 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, the core rate still seeing a modest impact from tariffs given a Q1 inventory build up and uncertainty over low long tariffs will persist, though at 0.32% before rounding we expect the strongest rise in the core rate since
June 06, 2025
Preview: Due June 24 - Canada May CPI - BoC core rates to correct April's acceleration
June 6, 2025 7:38 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a marginal rise to 1.8% yr/yr from 1.7% in April, correcting a fall from 2.3% in March that was fully explained by the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. However, after an acceleration in April, we expect some slowing in the Bank of Canada’s core rates in May.
Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiples to lead modest declines
June 6, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
We expect May housing starts to see a modest fall of 0.8% to 1350k to follow a 1.6% April increase, while permits fall by 1.5% to 1400k after a drop of 4.0% in April. Trend now looks marginally negative though the May declines are likely to be led by the volatile multiples sector.
June 05, 2025
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, underlying momentum subdued
June 5, 2025 3:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.7% decline in May retail sales as auto sales show a sharp reversal from recent strength. Ex autos we expect a subdued 0.1% increase, with a 0.2% rise ex autos and gasoline. Both of these outcomes would match those of April.
Preview: Due June 6 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Some slowing, but not a recession signal
June 5, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
We expect a 120k increase in May’s non-farm payroll, with 110k in the private sector, slower than seen in March and April but stronger than what may have been weather-restrained months in January and February. We expect a slightly stronger 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings and an unchanged unem
June 04, 2025
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Deficit to plunge as imports reverse pre-tariff surge
June 4, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
We expect April’s trade deficit to plunge to $66.4bn, which would be the lowest since December 2023, from a record $140.5bn in March. We expect a healthy 2.1% increase from exports and a plunge of 16.3% in imports, correcting Q1 strength seen ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.