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June 04, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for June 10: A little less hawkish despite continued energy risk
June 4, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 10 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. This meeting will contain no quarterly Monetary Policy Report and hence no updated forecasts. However, since the last meeting on April 29 GDP and core inflation have come in softer than expected, but elevated energy
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
June 4, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture
June 4, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.
UK GDP Preview (Jun 12): GDP Upside Surprises To Reverse?
June 4, 2026 9:49 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even in the first month after the Middle East conflict. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since Labour took of
June 03, 2026
Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April
June 3, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Some positive signals
June 3, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to increase by 2.0% to 4.10m, extending a marginal 0.2% increase in April but still not fully reversing March’s 2.9% decline. This would bring the first yr/yr increase since October 2025, by 1.5%, following a flat April.
June 02, 2026
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
June 2, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April.
Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
June 2, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
June 2, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
June 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
May 29, 2026
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
May 29, 2026 3:28 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 29, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
May 28, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 28, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
May 27, 2026
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
May 27, 2026 5:27 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 27, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
May 27, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 27, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 27, 2026 12:27 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 27, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?
May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise. Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4
May 26, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
May 22, 2026
Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture
May 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.