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December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin
November 28, 2024 2:38 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe
November 26, 2024 3:44 PM UTC
We expect a 180k increase in November’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would underperform our 225k estimate for private sector payrolls (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 260k). ADP data was strong at 233k in October, sharply outperforming a 28k decline in private sec
November 26, 2024 3:36 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
November 26, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.
November 26, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We expect October durable orders to increase by 1.0% overall following two straight modest declines with a 0.4% increase ex transport. This would be a third straight rise, if slightly slower than in the preceding two months.
November 26, 2024 1:44 PM UTC
We expect an advance October goods trade deficit of $104.5bn, down from $108.7bn in September but above the Q3 average of $102.0bn. Trend in the deficit is for widening and a now settled strike at Boeing will cause weakness in October aircraft exports.
November 25, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect an October new home sales level of 750k, which would be a 1.6% increase if September’s 4.1% increase to 738k is unrevised. This would maintain an improving trend and take the level to the highest since February 2022.
November 21, 2024 9:59 AM UTC
Slightly higher energy costs were the main factor behind the rise back in HICP inflation in October to 2.0% having fallen to a well-below target 1.7% in the previous month (Figure 1). The outcome was a little higher than expected, not least with another apparently resilient services inflation read
November 20, 2024 3:58 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, Germany’s disinflation process continues but unevenly. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise and unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.0% in August, and then down to 1.8% last month, below th
November 20, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
We expect a 2.3% increase in October existing home sales to 3.93m, a moderate rise after declines of 1.0% in September and 2.0% in August, but sufficient to move yr/yr data above zero at 2.1% for the first time since July 2021.
November 18, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
We expect October Canadian CPI to correct higher to 1.8% yr/yr after falling to 1.6% in September from 2.0% in August. This will leave overall CPI below the 2.0% Bank of Canada target. While we expect overall CPI to correct higher we expect the BoC’s core rates to show renewed downward progress af
November 18, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
November 15, 2024 5:09 PM UTC
We expect October’s personal income and spending data to look similar to September’s, with gains of 0.3% in personal income, 0.5% in personal spending and a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices. A second straight 0.3% rise in core PCE prices would be a little high for comfort.
November 14, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.
November 13, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.
November 13, 2024 12:05 PM UTC
Bottom line: The latest CPI figure of 6.2% yr/yr underscores significant inflationary pressures within the Indian economy, primarily driven by food prices but also influenced by housing costs. With inflation now at a 14-month high, the RBI's response will be another rate hold in December. Earliest r
November 13, 2024 11:51 AM UTC
Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021. This drop was greater than expected and
November 12, 2024 6:28 PM UTC
We expect an advance October goods trade deficit of $104.5bn, down from $108.7bn in September but above the Q3 average of $102.0bn. Trend in the deficit is for widening and a now settled strike at Boeing will cause weakness in October aircraft exports.
November 12, 2024 5:17 PM UTC
We expect October durable orders to increase by 1.0% overall following two straight modest declines with a 0.4% increase ex transport. This would be a third straight rise, if slightly slower than in the preceding two months.
November 12, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft
November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon
November 7, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Aided by more downside inflation surprises and the accelerated pace of central bank easing nearby, speculation that the Norges Bank would ease by year –end had grown, but have now largely dissipated. However, after the widely expected stable policy decision today, the possibility that a cut may
November 6, 2024 6:54 AM UTC
A Trump victory is now widely expected with results so far and has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher. Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere -- House race is tigh
November 5, 2024 7:44 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe
November 5, 2024 5:09 PM UTC
We expect an October new home sales level of 750k, which would be a 1.6% increase if September’s 4.1% increase to 738k is unrevised. This would maintain an improving trend and take the level to the highest since February 2022.
November 5, 2024 4:44 PM UTC
We expect a 2.3% increase in October existing home sales to 3.93m, a moderate rise after declines of 1.0% in September and 2.0% in August, but sufficient to move yr/yr data above zero at 2.1% for the first time since July 2021.
November 5, 2024 3:59 PM UTC
We expect October Canadian CPI to correct higher to 1.8% yr/yr after falling to 1.6% in September from 2.0% in August. This will leave overall CPI below the 2.0% Bank of Canada target. While we expect overall CPI to correct higher we expect the BoC’s core rates to show renewed downward progress af
November 5, 2024 2:55 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in October, with a 0.4% increase overall matching that of September. However gains of 0.2% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline would see some loss of momentum from surprisingly strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in September.
November 5, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
Household debt/GDP has fallen noticeably since the GFC to largely counterbalance the rise in government debt/GDP. However, a surge in household borrowing for consumption with Fed easing is unlikely, as the overall resilience on consumption hides buoyance among wealthy households and a struggle/low
November 4, 2024 8:09 PM UTC
We expect October PPI to maintain a subdued profile, rising by 0.1% overall and by 0.2% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would be in line with recent trend but slower than seen in the first half of the year.
November 4, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy. The latter will be soft
November 4, 2024 1:35 PM UTC
We expect October’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.5 from September’s 54.9 outcome that was the highest since February 2023. An October index of 53.5 would still be stronger than most recent months.
November 4, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.
November 1, 2024 6:37 PM UTC
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
November 1, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect a 25bps FOMC easing on November 7 to a 4.5% to 4.75% range. With the dots from the September 18 meeting relatively evenly split between one and two more 25bps easings this year and data since September 18 on balance being relatively firm the debate is likely to be between no change and a 2
October 31, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 75k non-farm payroll increase in October, with only 40k in the private sector. This would follow above trend gains of 254k and 223k respectively in September, depressed by a strike at Boeing and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. While payrolls will be below trend, we expect unemp
October 31, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
We expect an October ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, slightly improved from two straight months at 47.2 and 46.8 in July but still suggesting a slightly negative underlying manufacturing picture.
October 30, 2024 4:54 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.
October 30, 2024 3:24 PM UTC
Despite a focus on hefty tax rises of some 1% of GDP, the Budget also sees borrowing rise by a similar amount so that a sizeable surge in government spending mean this is one of the largest fiscal loosenings in recent decades. But the boost to GDP growth is temporary and modest and where any impro
October 30, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.