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September 18, 2026
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing
September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
September 17, 2026
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
September 16, 2026
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha
EM Money Supply: Trends Diverge from Policy Rates
September 16, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
· M2 growth in China remains weak (pre 2015 the trend had been double digit), despite the low level of nominal and real policy rates. This reflects credit demand and supply problems. M2 growth will likely remain restrained by Chinese standards and act as a drag of nominal and real GDP
UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected
September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in
September 15, 2026
Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff
September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects. Breakeven inflation expectatio
China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses
September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv
September 14, 2026
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears
September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
· For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year. Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027
September 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet
September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
· The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT. The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol
September 10, 2026
ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency
September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?
U.S. August PPI - Near consensus, but still firmer than the Fed would like
September 10, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
August PPI is in line with expectations, up 0.4% overall, and a moderate 0.2% ex food and energy. A 0.3% rise ex food, energy and trade suggests underlying trends are still a little firmer than the Fed would like. Initial claims at 206k versus 207k and continued claims at 1.774m versus 1.775m are vi
