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August 28, 2026
September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech
August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf
Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
August 28, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos
August 27, 2026
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade - Widest post-tariff deficit, Initial and Continued Claims fall
August 27, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
July’s advance goods trade deficit of $118.8bn versus $101.4bn in June is the widest since the record $158.7bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. The deficit has picked up since the Supreme Court ruled against the reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. Initial claims remain low, fallin
ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep
August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio
August 26, 2026
U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations
August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se
August 25, 2026
Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?
August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC
* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t
UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’
August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see
August 24, 2026
Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute
August 24, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
The immediate economic impact of the collapse of the US-Canada trade talks is likely to be modest, but not insignificant in the case of Canada. Where things move from here is uncertain, with Canadian retaliation due to be implemented on September 8, and risk of further mutual escalations after tha
August 21, 2026
EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing
August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
· The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well). This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP. However
August 20, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins
August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years. This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi
August 19, 2026
FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important
August 19, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w
Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze
August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
August 18, 2026
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 7:23 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei
August 17, 2026
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC
The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed
August 14, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
China Widening C/A Surplus
August 14, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
• China could reduce its excess current account surplus by a package of real Yuan appreciation; industrial policy reform to clean up excess production and structural boosts to safety nets that can sustainably boost consumption share in GDP. China authorities are reluctant to adopt these