U.S. Fed's Powell - Two-sided risks mean no risk-free path

September 23, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

Fed's Powell sees sees risks on both sides of the mandate, with no pre-set path for policy.

DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction

September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w

German HICP Preview (Sep 30): Headline Higher But Core to Fall Further?

September 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

Western Europe Outlook: Policy Divergences

September 23, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.2 ppt back to 1.0%, but pared back that for next year by a notch to a sub-par 0.8%. We think this will refresh somewhat stalled disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further into H1 by around 75 bp. 
·       Sweden has seen a clear e

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though pharma tariffs are likely, the bulk of tariffs

Sweden Riksbank Review: Riksbank Delivers Final Rate Cut?

September 23, 2025 8:16 AM UTC

Although aware of the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises as well as what now looks to be a clear fiscal loosening, the Riksbank delivered the 25 bp final rate cut we expected.  The Board was very clear that no further easing

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

Equities Outlook: Correction Then Up In 2026

September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

•    The U.S. equity market’s bullishness reflects good corporate earnings reality, buybacks and the AI story.  However, we feel that the U.S. economy can deteriorate still further in the coming months, as the lagged effects of tariffs boost inflation and restrain spending/hurt corporate ea

U.S. Fed's Bostic sees little reason to cut rates further

September 22, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is sounding hawkish, but is a non-voter for 2025 and 2026.

Commodities Outlook: Markets in Motion

September 22, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

OPEC+ has entered a new supply cycle, gradually reversing a second layer of voluntary cuts. The latest 1.65 mln b/d tranche is being phased out at 137,000 b/d monthly, likely completed by September 2026, while 2 mln b/d of group-wide cuts remain until the end of 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth will lik

U.S. Outlook: Fed Easing to Prevent Recession, but May Also Keep Inflation Above Target

September 22, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth, supported in particular by business investment, was resilient in Q2, but growth in employment is now minimal and that will weigh on consumer spending, particularly with tariff-supported inflation set to restrain real wage growth. Recession is a risk if we see a vicious circle

Eurozone Outlook: Resilience or Irrelevance?

September 22, 2025 9:49 AM UTC

··       Yet again, and amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the ec

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

Japan Outlook: Ready for Another Step

September 22, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

•    The recovery in private consumption surprised to the upside is Q2 2025 because wage growth regained traction after clarity on the U.S.-Japan trade front. The gradual transition of business price/wage setting behavior will continue to support consumption in 2025/26. Trade balance in 2025 h

China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?

September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports.  A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%