View:
May 19, 2025 10:07 AM UTC
The European Commission (EC) Spring Forecast projects real EZ GDP growth in 2025 at 0.9%, some 0.4 ppt below its previous (autumn) view. There is also a downgrade to the 2026 growth picture by 0.2 ppt to 1.4%, projections that carry downside risks and where we think they are still too optimistic
May 19, 2025 8:54 AM UTC
That the UK has seemingly cobbled together a third trade deal in just over a fortnight is of course more of political importance than economic. The deal to be detailed later today with the EU will help both sides economy wise but only at the margin – the main factor for the UK being an open-ende
May 16, 2025 11:42 PM UTC
Moody’s downgraded US debt to AA1 from AAA after Friday’s close. The decision appears due to continued lack of action on the budget deficit rather that being triggered by any specific event, and brings Moody’s into line with S and P and Fitch. However the timing is awkward for markets, with th
May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab
May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC
China, India and Brazil are all seeing cyclical slowdown for varying reasons, with China likely to be hardest hit by adverse net exports due to Trump’s tariff wars. Though financial repression in China can allow further fiscal stimulus, the household sector and residential property investment are
May 15, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
April’s PPI, even more so than April’s CPI, was surprisingly soft, falling by 0.5% overall, 0.4% ex food and energy and by 0.1% ex food, energy and trade. However March PPI saw sharp upward revisions, overall to unchanged from -0.4%, ex food and energy to a 0.4% rise from -0.1%, and ex food, e
May 15, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April retail sales and weekly initial claims are in line with expectations, and consistent with a moderate slowing in the economy, but with no recessionary signals. It is however too early for the full impact of tariffs to be seen, particularly with the impact of tariffs on prices so far limited.
May 15, 2025 7:17 AM UTC
National account data delivered yet another upside surprise both in terms of the latest monthly figure and also the associated Q1 update. Indeed, February GDP, rather than consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, instead grew by 0.2% (Figure 1), a fifth successive non-negati
May 15, 2025 7:15 AM UTC
The alternative hard landing scenario in China has been reduced significantly with the trade truce with the U.S. However, China will still have to cope with a minimum 30% overall tariff, with only around a 10% reduction in the fentanyl tariff likely to be agreed in the coming months. Our baselin
May 14, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
Now that we have seen April’s non-farm payroll and CPI data, the underlying economic picture still looks quite healthy. Activity still seems to have respectable momentum despite a marginal decline in Q1 GDP, while inflation appears to be losing momentum with little pass through of tariffs yet. Unc
May 14, 2025 12:20 PM UTC
After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.
May 14, 2025 9:21 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, we foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 2.8-2.9% in April, which will be announced on May 21. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, return of power cuts (loadshedding), and
May 14, 2025 9:05 AM UTC
The U.S. will likely introduce a 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals, which will increase pressure on the EU and other European countries (e.g. Switzerland) and also delay serious negotiations close to the 90 day reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9, adding to pressure on Europe by deliberately prolonging
May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i
May 13, 2025 9:57 AM UTC
Even the BoE has acknowledged that the UK economy is developing slack and the continued trend rise in activity rates will only serve to reinforce the impression of a labor market that is not so much less tight but decidedly getting looser. As a result, pay pressures seem to be receding (Figure 1) an
May 13, 2025 9:38 AM UTC
Though we had expected a U.S./China trade truce, the terms are more favorable to U.S. growth than we anticipated. Combined with the UK framework deal, we have revised down the probability of a U.S. recession from 35% to 20%. In turn we have revised up the end 2025 and end 2026 S&P500 forecasts t
May 12, 2025 5:24 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of the key rate decision on May 12, showing CBR’s views on economic developments. CBR highlighted in its report that “The current inflationary pressures eased in Q1, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pa
May 12, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
The UK and the rest of the DM world are about to decouple, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK faces a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below, targets. Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the
May 12, 2025 12:02 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.