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June 16, 2026
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 16, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
China: Divided Economy
June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC
· Overall, growth remains unbalanced. Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still. However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption. While the stimu
June 15, 2026
U.S. May Industrial Production - Pause in a positive trend
June 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
May industrial production with a 0.1% increase and manufacturing unchanged was on the weak side of expectations. Near term revisions were positive but revisions further back were negative. Capacity utilization at 76.2% was as expected and the highest since July 2025.
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
June 12, 2026
Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario. In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts. 10yr
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since
June 11, 2026
CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Despite Inflationary Risks
June 11, 2026 3:44 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on June 11 despite inflationary risks as economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. CBRT stated in its written stat
ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?
June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC
The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat
BoE Preview (Jun 18): Splits to Widen, But Stable Policy Outlook Intact
June 11, 2026 10:26 AM UTC
Not only this month, but we see the BoE being on hold for the rest of the year with rate cuts then resuming through 2027. Although markets are pricing just over two hikes from the current 3.75% with a 50%-plus probability of the first being delivered at the July 30 MPC meeting, our view is hardly
Swiss SNB Preview (Jun 18): Still Keeping a Low Profile
June 11, 2026 6:33 AM UTC
Once again and in line with consensus thinking we see SNB policy being unchanged (ie the policy rate remaining at zero) when it gives its next quarterly assessment this month with little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation. Admittedly, the tone of the economic outlook will remain
June 10, 2026
Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023
June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias
June 10, 2026 4:55 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, even ex food and en
Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone
June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC
While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?
June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p
Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question
June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD
June 09, 2026
South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1
June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne
Norges Bank Preview (Jun 18): Forecast Update the Key
June 9, 2026 2:32 PM UTC
It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh last month by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years. Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in subsequent next couple of months
Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
June 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th