Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo

ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure

April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im

BoE Review: MPC Playing Its Cards Safely (For Now)?

April 30, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC last month and the same decision was both expected and delivered this time around but with only token fresh dissent, with Chief Economist Pill wanting an immediate hike from the current 3.75%.  But splits were more evident in the individual MPC

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time

April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no

FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September

April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We

U.S. Fed's Powell - Number who want to change language has incrased

April 29, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

This is likely to be Powell's last meeting as Chair. Concern over inflation is increasing as we enter the handover to Warsh. 

FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish

April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.

Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy appropriate if economy evolves in line with baseline

April 29, 2026 1:59 PM UTC

The BoC assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs remain at current levels. Policy is seen as appropriate under the baseline.

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger

April 29, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

UK Political Risk – Bad Things Come in Threes?

April 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

The biggest set of elections since the 2024 general election takes place on 7 May in the UK.  Already, UK markets are fretting about the possible outcome, in particular that serious electoral damage to the Labour Party currently running the government could make it swing more to left and dilute fis

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2026

April 29, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2026.

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Big EM: Diverging Fiscal Trends

April 28, 2026 12:35 PM UTC

·       EM government bond spreads are controlled as 2nd round inflation effects are likely to be less than 2022, due to less buoyant domestic demand/slacker labour markets and less global supply chain pressure ex oil/oil products.  Brazil is expected to cut rates and others will likely not

Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected

April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t

BoJ Review: Hawkish Hold

April 28, 2026 4:53 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.75% in the April meeting with a 6-3 vote

Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets

April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

•    Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing.  This dive

8th Consecutive Cut: CBR Reduced the Rate to 14.5% Despite Risks

April 24, 2026 5:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—the CBR continued its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. CBR maintained a cautious tone on inflation and future pol

BoE Preview (Apr 30) Divided Again But Unmoved (For Now)?

April 24, 2026 9:34 AM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC unanimous last month and the same decision is expected this time around but with probable fresh dissent, with up to 2-3 members opting for an immediate hike.  These splits will be even more evident in the individual MPC member statements (as exp

ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!

April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous.  Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati