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October 17, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
There are now five candidates for Fed Chair, in a rough order of decreasing credibility, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Blackrock’s Chief Investment
October 17, 2025 10:24 AM UTC
The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Council as to where inflation risks lie. Hawks perceive upside risks emerging while the dovish camp feels the opposite. These divisions are likely to magnify when the ECB updates its
October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC
China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af
October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC
India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p
October 16, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate constant at 17% during the next MPC on October 24 since the pace of the fall in inflation decelerated in September due to heightened gasoline prices after Ukraine stepped up hitting oil refineries in Russia; which could also
October 16, 2025 6:39 AM UTC
Although the revisions up to July GDP data now confirm a small m/m fall for that month), this was unwound in the August numbers with a 0.1% rise (Figure 1). This put the less volatile three-month rate at 0.3% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer zer
October 16, 2025 6:17 AM UTC
Indonesia’s 2026 budget marks President Prabowo Subianto’s first full fiscal blueprint—anchored in expansive social spending and a sharp 30% rise in defence outlays, while sidelining his predecessor’s infrastructure push. With revenue targets based on optimistic assumptions and growth foreca
October 14, 2025 2:07 PM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th
October 14, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
There may be signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly, if not actually indications that the more authoritative payrolls have stopped falling, albeit this largely due to increasing jobs within the health sector. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a
October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla
October 13, 2025 3:19 PM UTC
Trump’s more conciliatory words after announcing a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 have eased market worries, though the issue is far from resolved. It is still possible that Trump will follow through with his threat on November 1, but unlikely that tariffs would remain elevated for very
October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an
October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC
While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments
October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y
October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi
October 10, 2025 12:35 PM UTC
Although not fully high-profile,and mostly off the radar that the Council focuses on. the last few days have brought a series of data releases that will disappoint the ECB, certainly the hawks. These range from weak services production data, further signs of a loosening in the labor market and mor
October 9, 2025 1:26 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-2028, the main goal of the program remained bringing inflation down to single digits and ensuring price stability soon. Despite GDP growth is forecasted to be 3.8% next year, 4.3% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, we think the
October 9, 2025 12:52 PM UTC
Unsurprisingly there was little in the account of the ECB Council Meeting of 10-11 September to suggest any rush to change policy with it clear that members on both sides of the hawks vs doves debate wanted more data amid what was considered to be great uncertainty. Thus, the ECB offered little in