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December 12, 2025
U.S. Outlook: Consumers Vulnerable, but Recession Unlikely
December 12, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
• US GDP growth is likely to look solid in Q3 2025 supported by resilient consumer spending, but with slowing employment growth and resilient inflation weighing on real disposable income that will be difficult to sustain. However, while consumers look vulnerable, business investment looks h
Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?
December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
· The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026. However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data. We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a
UK GDP Review: Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless
December 12, 2025 7:47 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the October GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months (Figure 1), and where the unexpected further 0.
December 11, 2025
Softer November CPI Print Encouraged CBRT to Cut Key Rate to 38% on December 11
December 11, 2025 8:54 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% during the MPC meeting on December 11 encouraged by softer November inflation. The committee said inflation expectations and pricing behavior are showing signs of improvement even as they continue to po
China Outlook: Headwinds Get Stronger
December 11, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· Private domestic demand remains modest, with consumption ranging from modest to moderate (slowed by the housing wealth hit and soft jobs/wage growth) and investment further impacted by the ongoing adverse drag of the residential property bust. China’s authorities prefer a long and
Eurozone Outlook: Running to Keep Fiscally Still?
December 11, 2025 10:09 AM UTC
· Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we retain our below consensus activity forecast for 2026 but see a fiscally driven pick-up into 2027. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but the economy has actual
Swiss SNB Review: Preserving Ammunition
December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC
Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change. Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation. Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy
Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November
December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue
Brazil: March 50bps Cut?
December 11, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
BCB remain focused on getting inflation converging towards the centre of the inflation target range at 3% looking at the December statement. It appears that the economic weakness is not yet great enough to get the BCB to signal a January cut. Nevertheless, with headline inflation falling, the real i
December 10, 2025
Fed: Slower 2026 Easing
December 10, 2025 8:34 PM UTC
Powell in the press conference made clear that the Fed is now in a wait and see mood, with policy rates entering a broad measure of neutral policy rates. This means further weakening in labor demand and then consumption would be required to prompt an early 2026 cut. We are less upbeat than the Fed
FOMC eases by 25bps, dots unchanged from September
December 10, 2025 7:21 PM UTC
The FOMC has eased by 25bps as expected to a 3.50-3.75% Fed Funds target range, with two hawkish dissents for no change from Schmid (who dissented in October) and Goolsbee, while Miran again dissented for a steeper 50bps ease. The dots are unchanged from September, implying one 25bps ease in both 20
Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data
December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m
Norges Bank Preview (Dec 18): Still Far Too Cautious
December 10, 2025 9:17 AM UTC
No change in policy and little shift in rhetoric was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict. After what was to some a surprise (and seemingly far from a formality) move in September, in which the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, we see no change at the loomin
December 09, 2025
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector
December 9, 2025 5:01 PM UTC
The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.
BoE Preview (Dec 18): How Big a Split?
December 9, 2025 11:29 AM UTC
That the BoE will deliver a fifth 25 bp rate cut (to 3.75%) on Dec 18 is almost certain, even after a Budget that did not accentuate current emerging demand weakness. The question is whether the MPC vote will be as close as the 5:4 split seen last month but with Governor Bailey switching sides.
Americas First: New National Security Strategy
December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC
· The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets. Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again. Nevertheless, the NSS does r
ECB Preview (Dec 18): Still in Good Place – or Even Better?
December 9, 2025 7:52 AM UTC
A fourth successive stable policy decision will be the almost inevitable outcome of the ECB Council meeting verdict on Dec 18, with the discount rate left at 2.0%. The likely unanimous vote will mask splits about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Co
