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March 20, 2026
CBR Cuts Key Rate by 50 Bps to 15% Despite Risks
March 20, 2026 6:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite adverse global developments and proinflationary risks, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the policy rate by 50 bps to 15% on March 20 likely to stimulate the economy as it comes under increasing strain from high borrowing costs. CBR noted in its written statement that it
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued
March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC
We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.
March 19, 2026
South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments
March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (
ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!
March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u
BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?
March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war. The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r
Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time
March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC
Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict. However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric. In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some
SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF
March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC
· The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1). The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s
Brazil: Cautious 25bps Cut
March 19, 2026 7:27 AM UTC
BCB gave no detailed forward guidance, but they did hint at flexibility and did not lock themselves into only 25bps steps in future meetings. We do feel that policy is very tight and that a further cut will be evident at April 29 meeting. This could be either 25bps or 50bps depending on the leng
March 18, 2026
Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But
March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC
· Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war. We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow
FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP
March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki
Bank of Canada - Uncertainty Heightened Further but a Dovish Leaning
March 18, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.25% as expected, but with uncertainty heightened still further removed from its statement a reference to the current policy being appropriate provided the economy evolves as expected. Uncertainty on policy has increased too. However, the BoC has taken a more dovish
March 17, 2026
U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue
March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC
While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue. U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c
UK CPI Preview (Mar 25): The Calm Before the Storm?
March 17, 2026 8:53 AM UTC
Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, there was still a clear fall even in the core rate. Indeed, the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) and we see it staying there is February’s numbers - as do BoE projections. Services
March 16, 2026
China: Modest Bounce at Start of 2026, But
March 16, 2026 8:49 AM UTC
· Though the January-February data was better than expected, we expect high oil prices and an adverse effect from the Iran war to hurt China’s export growth. We still feel that the economy remains too dependent on high tech manufacturing and modest consumption will act as a drag on
March 13, 2026
U.S. Q4 GDP revised down, Savings revised up, Core PCE Prices make a strong start to 2026
March 13, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a broad based downward revision to Q4 GDP to 0.7% from 1.4%. January personal income, personal spending and core PCE prices all rose by 0.4%, net close to expectations, though upward revisions to savings reduce downside cons
UK GDP Review: More Gloom?
March 13, 2026 7:41 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers. Expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were dashed as GDP instead stagnated. Weakness was broad-based but most evident in private servic
March 12, 2026
CBRT Pauses Easing Cycle; Policy Rate Held at 37% Due to Surges in Oil Prices and CPI Increase in February
March 12, 2026 8:20 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on March 12. This decision effectively pauses the bank’s easing cycle in response to heightened market volatility and rising energy costs driven by the ongoing war in Iran. While February's
BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?
March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change. But while the MPC as a wh
Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran
March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC
• The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely. China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from
March 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots
March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w