U.S. Fed's Waller - 25bps easing justified in October, after that will depend on data

October 16, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

Fed's Waller is dovish on inflation, but notes a contrast between strong GDP and weak labor market data.

Preview: CBR will Likely Hold the Key Rate Stable at 17% on October 24

October 16, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate constant at 17% during the next MPC on October 24 since the pace of the fall in inflation decelerated in September due to heightened gasoline prices after Ukraine stepped up hitting oil refineries in Russia; which could also

UK GDP Review: Moving Sideways – At Best

October 16, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

Although the revisions up to July GDP data now confirm a small m/m fall for that month), this was unwound in the August numbers with a 0.1% rise (Figure 1). This put the less volatile three-month rate at 0.3% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer zer

Indonesia’s 2026 Budget: Populist Spending Meets Fiscal Strain

October 16, 2025 6:17 AM UTC

Indonesia’s 2026 budget marks President Prabowo Subianto’s first full fiscal blueprint—anchored in expansive social spending and a sharp 30% rise in defence outlays, while sidelining his predecessor’s infrastructure push. With revenue targets based on optimistic assumptions and growth foreca

U.S. Fed's Powell - May end balance sheet run-off in coming months

October 14, 2025 4:34 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has signalled that QT, already reduced, may soon end, but added little fresh on the outlook for Fed Funds.

October 14, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th

UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing More Clearly on Wages

October 14, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

There may be signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly, if not actually indications that the more authoritative payrolls have stopped falling, albeit this largely due to increasing jobs within the health sector.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a

India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December

October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla

U.S. Fed's Paulson - Moderate tone

October 13, 2025 5:42 PM UTC

Early comments from incoming Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson are moderate in tone.

U.S-China Trade Tensions May Escalate Further Before Eventually Fading

October 13, 2025 3:19 PM UTC

Trump’s more conciliatory words after announcing a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 have eased market worries, though the issue is far from resolved. It is still possible that Trump will follow through with his threat on November 1, but unlikely that tariffs would remain elevated for very

Tourism and Services Income Helped Turkish Current Account in August

October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an

Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September

October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y

Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October

October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi

Eurozone: Data Disappointments Off the ECB Radar

October 10, 2025 12:35 PM UTC

Although not fully high-profile,and mostly off the radar that the Council focuses on. the last few days have brought a series of data releases that will disappoint the ECB, certainly the hawks.  These range from weak services production data, further signs of a loosening in the labor market and mor

U.S. Fed's Waller - Cautions given contrast between GDP and employment

October 10, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Fed's Waller while dovish, does not favor easing in more than 25bps steps.

U.S. Fed's Barr - Still concerned about tariff threat to inflation

October 9, 2025 5:05 PM UTC

Fed's Barr remains hawkish on inflation risks, even if recognizing downside labor market risk.

Enthusiastic Turkish Medium Term Program Towards 2026-2028 Aims to Find Solutions to Macroeconomic Issues… But Road is Bumpy

October 9, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-2028, the main goal of the program remained bringing inflation down to single digits and ensuring price stability soon. Despite GDP growth is forecasted to be 3.8% next year, 4.3% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, we think the

ECB Council Meeting Account Review: Complacency Rules the Day as Financial Conditions Tighten!

October 9, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

Unsurprisingly there was little in the account of the ECB Council Meeting of 10-11 September to suggest any rush to change policy with it clear that members on both sides of the hawks vs doves debate wanted more data amid what was considered to be great uncertainty.  Thus, the ECB offered little in