View:
October 04, 2024
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC
We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks.
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC
The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts. This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends. The Decem
October 03, 2024
U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations
China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC
Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98. China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis. Asia widespread banking cris
U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
October 3, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC
Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi
October 02, 2024
FOMC Minutes Preview and Data Outlook Before the Next Meeting
October 2, 2024 5:52 PM UTC
After a less than dovish speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the NABE on Monday, it is likely that the minutes from the September 18 meeting due on October 9 will show a similar tone. However the next FOMC decision on November 7 will be data-dependent, and the minutes may highlight the signifi
Preview: Due October 15 - Canada September CPI - To fall below 2% overall, but with pause in BoC core rates
October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Retail Sales - A moderate end to a stronger quarter
October 2, 2024 1:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in September retail sales with a 0.1% increase ex autos, similar to the 0.1% increases seen in both series in August. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.3% increase, slightly stronger than August’s 0.2% but not quite matching a 0.4% gain seen in July.
U.S. September ADP Employment - Stronger increase consistent with lower initial claims
October 2, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate for private sector employment growth of 143k is on the firm side of expectations and stronger than in July or August. This follows lower initial claims data in September. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we continue to expect a similar 150k rise in priva
Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC
Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran. However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran. This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil
October 01, 2024
U.S. August JOLTS report sees Job Openings rebound, ISM Manufacturing unchanged with mixed detail
October 1, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
August’s JOLTS report shows quite a sharp rise in job openings, by 329k to 8.04m, more than fully erasing a 199k decline in July but not June’s 320k drop. Trend remains negative, but only modestly. September’s ISM manufacturing index is unchanged at 47.2, with mixed detail.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in
Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia
October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,
September 30, 2024
Powell suggests FOMC not in a hurry to get rates to neutral
September 30, 2024 7:07 PM UTC
The latest speech given by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the NABE was not seen as dovish, suggesting the labor market is roughly where the Fed wants and easing is designed to keep it that way. In the Q+A he went on to see GDP revisions as having reduced downside risk, and suggested the Fed is not in
Preview: Due October 11 - U.S. September PPI - Energy to slip, core rates seen slightly slower
September 30, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Still weak
September 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, still weak and almost unchanged from August’s 47.2 and July’s 46.8, and also equal to a weaker S and P manufacturing PMI for September which was the lowest since June 2023.
ECB October Rate Cut for Insurance
September 30, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
Recent economic data and national CPI numbers have increased the economic case for less restrictive policy. Combined with softening of guidance from ECB Lagarde and Schnabel, this leaves us inclined to now forecast a 25bps cut at the October 17 ECB meeting. This will likely be followed by a 25bp
Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%). Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global
RBI’s October Rate Call: Patience May Prevail Over Pressure
September 30, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its October meeting, despite global central banks initiating rate cuts. Domestic inflation concerns and uncertainties over MPC appointments are likely to drive a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach, with potential easing only by December.
September 27, 2024
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo
U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices looking subdued in Q3
September 27, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
August’s PCE price data, up 0.1% both overall and core (0.09% and 0.13% respectively before rounding) shows the core rate softer than expected, and well below the 0.3% core CPI. Personal income and spending gains of 0.2% are both on the low side of expectations but a narrower August advance goods
EZ HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Back Below Target and Backed Up By Survey Signs?
September 27, 2024 9:38 AM UTC
Lower fuel prices will be a key factor in September’s HICP numbers, and enough of a factor to pull the y/y rate to 1.9%, which would be the lowest in over three years and this despite still little material change in services inflation. Indeed, the risk is of an even lower outcome. This may be sh
September 26, 2024
Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices to underperform Core CPI
September 26, 2024 5:03 PM UTC
We expect August core PCE prices to rise by 0.2%, a little softer than the 0.3% core CPI which rose by 0.28% before rounding. We also expect personal income with a 0.4% rise to outpace a 0.2% increase in personal spending. GDP revisions suggest back data for personal income will be revised significa
Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower within a widening trend
September 26, 2024 4:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
Preview: Due September 27 - Canada July GDP - A little stronger than the preliminary estimate
September 26, 2024 3:55 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in July, slightly above an unchanged estimate made with June data. A Bank of Canada forecast made in July of 2.8% annualized growth in Q3 will however still look difficult to achieve. Governor Macklem has acknowledged downside risk to the forecast.
U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Still weak but may be near a base
September 26, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
August pending home sales with a marginal 0.6% increase fell slightly short of expectations following a sharp 5.5% decline in July, though with July’s dip having followed a 4.8% increase in June the trend is probably only marginally negative now.
Western Europe Outlook: Gradualism vs Reality
September 26, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
· In the UK, while headline GDP numbers look firmer, the real economy backdrop and outlook remains no better than mixed. This should improve a disinflation process driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q4 and continue doing so through 2025 (we look