January 8, 2026 4:00 PM UTC

We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.

UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?

January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant.  Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath

January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·        A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Resilient But Core Goods Soften Further

January 7, 2026 10:44 AM UTC

HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, albeit where adverse rounding pre vented a fall to 1.9%.  We see this as th

January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland.  Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings.  Trump would li

Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger

January 6, 2026 7:53 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.

Turkiye’s Foreign Trade Deficit Increased in 2025 Despite TRY Slide

January 6, 2026 4:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary annual figures announced by the Ministry of Trade on January 6, Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit increased to USD92.2 billion in 2025 from USD82.2 billion in 2024, partly due to higher purchases of investment goods and raw materials. According to preliminar

German HICP Review: Headline and Core Down Afresh

January 6, 2026 4:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process resumed with a bang as December saw a larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation.  Indeed, the headline HICP fell 0.6 ppt to a five-month low of 2.0%.  This was largely food and energy driven but still with some fall in core at least according to

Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture

January 6, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Venezuela: Oil and Geopolitics

January 5, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

·       Venezuela’s oil production will likely take years to increase substantively due to poor infrastructure, the need for substantive investment, and a lack of democratic political stability.  In terms of geopolitics, operations in Venezuela reinforce the Trump administration’s pivot

Turkiye Closes the Year with Inflation Easing to 30.9% y/y in December

January 5, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on January 5, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 30.9% y/y in December backed by the lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening. Food, housing and education drove the inflation in December as education prices recorde

AI and U.S. Productivity

January 5, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

·        Structural labor and overall productivity will be boosted if current AI adoption is sustained at a pace quicker than the adoption of the internet.  However, not all areas of the U.S. economy are exposed to AI benefits, as manual work can only be replaced by humanoid robots with maj

Bessent: New Fed Inflation Range and Dropping Dots?

January 2, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent over the Christmas period suggested that the Fed should shift to targeting an inflation range and drop the quarterly dots.  What impact would this have? Such a change would give the Fed more flexibility on the margin, but not significant.  This could make communicat

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

U.S. Consumption Vulnerable to Asset Market Hit

December 30, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

Overall, we see consumption growth prospects as being modest for 2026, as low to middle income households still struggle with the cost of living crisis. Additionally, the slowdown in immigration is causing less overall employment gains and in turn less absolute increase in real income and consumptio

U.S. Q3 GDP: Better Than Expected, But

December 23, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

Q3 GDP came in better than expected due to a big net export contribution to growth.  Gross domestic purchases at 2.7% were more in line with expectations, with mixed performance in key expenditure sectors.  We see growth slowing in Q4, with net exports unlikely to repeat the Q3 outcome and consume

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower

December 22, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in  part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese