Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy

May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave

CHP Leadership Crisis Threatens Disinflation Trajectory in Turkiye

May 26, 2026 11:20 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Political tensions remain high in Turkiye after the 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice annulled the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) 2023 leadership congress on May 21, 2026. The ruling removed elected CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel from his leadership posit

U.S. Fed's Waller - Should remove easing bias, watching inflation expectations

May 22, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Fed's Waller turned dovish in 2025 on labor market risks. His focus is now shifting to inflation.

Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics

May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC

 A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a

South Africa MPC Preview: Close Call on May 28

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April due to higher energy and transportation prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely consider hiking the rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the next MPC scheduled on May 28 given plenty of upside risks

Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs

May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2

South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt

May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho

UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?

May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may

ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

UK Labor Market: Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low as Jobs Growth into Sharp Reverse

May 19, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Even more clearly, there are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.8 ppt in y/y terms with the m/m drop the larg

Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April

May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla

U.S. April Industrial Production - Led by a bounce in autos, but underlying trend positive

May 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC

Following an upbeat Empire Sate manufacturing survey for May, April industrial production gives further evidence that the manufacturing sector is in good health, rising by a stronger than expected 0.7% overall with a 0.6% increase in manufacturing, though half of the latter came from autos.

Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?

May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC

 In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly.  It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’

U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience

May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p

UK Politics – A Laboured Labour Election Ahead?

May 14, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

It is somewhat ironic that as markets (particularly gilts) fret over a shift to the left causing less fiscal prudency, it is actually the centre of the Labour party that is fermenting the most uncertainty.  (Now Ex) Secretary Streeting has yet to make a formal bid to challenge PM Starmer for the le

CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures

May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the

UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?

May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside.  Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?

Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed

May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold

U.S. Fed's Collins - Expects restrictive policy for some time

May 13, 2026 3:57 PM UTC

Fed's Collins appears to be getting more hawkish as the energy shock persists.

Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds

May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds. 

U.S. April PPI - Strong picture restored after pause in March core rates

May 13, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

After a surprisingly low March, which saw modest upward revisions, April PPI has rebounded above expectations, rising by 1.4% overall, 1.0% ex food and energy and 0.6% ex food, energy and trade. March and April together show the strength of January and February’s core rates persists, with energy,

U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter

May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.

UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?

May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March.  Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo