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June 30, 2025

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German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
Freemium Article

June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)!  Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be

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U.S. and Asia Defense Partners
Paying Article

June 30, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

 ·        Japan, S Korea and Australia could eventually agree to some extra commitment to increase (self) defence spending in the next 5-10 years though perhaps not targets like NATO countries.  This could come as part of the trade deal negotiations currently underway.  Japan and S Korea

June 27, 2025

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U.S. Q2 GDP to see only a modest rebound from a decline in Q1
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 6:05 PM UTC

The release of advance May trade and inventory data, plus May consumer spending, provides us with clearer signals on Q2 GDP, even if we have not yet seen any data for June. We currently expect a modest annualized gain of 1.4%, following a 0.5% decline in Q1, leaving a subdued first half of the year.

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Expects two rate cuts this year, possible first cut in September
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 12:11 PM UTC

Kashkari's view puts him on the Fed's median dot. The skew on the dots is hawkish but the decision will depend on data.

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UK Labor Market: Now not Less Tight but Genuinely Loose
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

It is clear(er) that the labor market is the key variable that the BoE is looking at to assess policy amid a backdrop where the official view is that current demand weakness may not be creating much, if any, slack as the supply side is equally anaemic.  In this regard, it is also clear(er) that the

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Mexico: Back Toward Neutral Policy Rates
Freemium Article

June 27, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

Banxico has cut by 50bps to 8.00%, while also signalling in its statement that further easing will now be data dependent. Our forecast is for easing to move to a 25bps pace and to come once a quarter – most likely in September and December. Some improvement in the monthly inflation trajectory woul

June 26, 2025

U.S. Fed's Barr - Fears tariffs could lead to persistent inflation
Paying Article

June 26, 2025 5:35 PM UTC

Fed's Barr continues to warn that a tariff boost to inflation could have some persistence.

U.S. Fed's Daly - Fall promising for a rate cut
Paying Article

June 26, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

Fed's Daly is giving what appears to be a mainstream Fed view.

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2025
Paying Article

June 26, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2025.

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Ukraine War Update: War Continuing Probability is Now at 70%
Freemium Article

June 26, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Our baseline scenario (70%) is based on the war continuing after talks fail since president Putin insists on his peace terms. President Trump is reluctant to threaten or implement of secondary tariffs on Russia oil buyers, that would really pressure president Putin. The U.S. financing o

June 25, 2025

U.S. Fed's Collins - Calling for patience, as are most Fed speakers
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

Fed's Collins, as are most Fed speakers, is backing the wait-and-see approach to policy, particularly in regard to tariffs. 

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June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

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EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed
Freemium Article

June 25, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

·       The Chinese Yuan (CNY) will likely remain stable while trade negotiations with the U.S. continue.  We see a trade deal in our baseline (probably Q4) and then a small rise in CNY v USD due to general USD weakness. 
·       In terms of total returns for the remainder of 2025, th

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Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

June 24, 2025

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Tariffs and the Timing of FOMC Easing
Freemium Article

June 24, 2025 6:06 PM UTC

While two Fed Governors. Waller and Bowman, have suggested a July easing could be appropriate, testimony from Chairman Powell suggests a move that early is unlikely, though September is possible if inflation data continues to show a lack of feed through from tariffs. We, and Powell, expect some acce

U.S. Fed's Williams Backs steady policy, Powell expecting tariffs to lift inflation
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 4:45 PM UTC

Fed's Williams is backing Powell's caution over easing. Powell is suggesting inflation data for June, July and August will be crucial. 

U.S. Fed's Powell - Expected inflation keeping rates above neutral
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 2:56 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is reluctant to ease because inflation is expected to rise on tariffs.  Future policy will depend on incoming data.

U.S. Fed's Powell - Sticking to wait and see view
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Fed's Powell, consistent with last week's post-FOMC press conference, seems in no rush to ease in his testimony to Congress.

U.S. Fed's Hammack - May stay on hold for some time
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is sounding hawkish, in contrast to Bowman yesterday.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Sees one rate cut late this year
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 10:54 AM UTC

Fed's Bostic continues to see only one rate cut this year, not backing Bowman's dovish view given yesterday.

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

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EZ HICP Preview (Jul 1): Headline Stays Below Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 8:57 AM UTC

Inflation – now below target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides.  Indeed, we see the flash June HICP staying at May’s below-consensus, eight-month low and below-target 1.9% (Figure 1).  More notably, having jumped

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Equities Outlook: Choppy Then 2026 Gains
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

       Though the U.S. equity market has rebounded, we still scope for a fresh dip H2 2025 to 5500 on the S&P500 as hard data softens further to feed into weaker corporate earnings forecasts and CPI picks up and delays Fed easing.  However, the AI story is still a positive, while share buybacks

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q3 2025
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.