December 9, 2025 5:01 PM UTC

The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data

December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m

SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?

December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11.  It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1).  But this will be enough to just

December 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

UK GDP Review: Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless

December 12, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the October GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant.  Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months (Figure 1), and where the unexpected further 0.

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

December 9, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC

Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change.  Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation.  Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy

December 8, 2025 8:50 AM UTC

·       The AI story has driven broad momentum in the U.S. equity market, but will likely become narrower driver in 2026 and 2027, as not all big AI/tech companies will generate clear explosive revenue from areas outside cloud computing and semiconductor chips. Companies that are also depende

Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause

December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ

Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector

December 15, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.

December 9, 2025 11:29 AM UTC

That the BoE will deliver a fifth 25 bp rate cut (to 3.75%) on Dec 18 is almost certain, even after a Budget that did not accentuate current emerging demand weakness.  The question is whether the MPC vote will be as close as the 5:4 split seen last month but with Governor Bailey switching sides. 

Eurozone Outlook: Running to Keep Fiscally Still?

December 11, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

·       Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we retain our below consensus activity forecast for 2026 but see a fiscally driven pick-up into 2027. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but the economy has actual

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 18): Policy to be Unchanged and little Move in Projections?

December 8, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

As we anticipated in our review, the Riksbank Board will be very pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confir

UK: BoE Offers Financial Boost?

December 2, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

In its updated financial policy report which included fresh bank stress tests, the BoE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is reducing bank capital requirements.  This very seems to be designed to encourage bank to lend and may reflect what have been modest, if not flagging, numbers regarding actual p

UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?

December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures.  This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak.  Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp

UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages

December 16, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Adding to the array if weak activity updates of late, there are increasing signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs more clearly and broadly with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down alm

U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum

December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct

EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help

December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

•    EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter.  We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru

December 8, 2025 9:43 AM UTC

It does seem as if the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak.  Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus to 3.6%, the looming November numbers may show a same-sized fall to 3.4%, a six-month low.  We see the core rate seen also dropping 0.2 ppt b

UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless

December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release.  Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari

December 18, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

That the BoE delivered a sixth 25 bp rate cut (to an almost three-year low of 3.75%) was hardly in doubt.  But we were surprised that amid the recent run of weak data, that there were (again) four dissents with Governor Bailey switching sides.  Notably, in a clear combative overtone, at least some

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Commodities Outlook: A Balancing Act

December 16, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Global oil demand is expected to be modest, with weak consumption in the U.S. and China, while India will support demand in 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply is expected to expand moderately in 2026, whereas OPEC’s policy will respond to demand but remains puzzling. Supply trends in 2027 are likely t