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Trump Tariffs: China and July 9 Reciprocal Deadline
Paying Article

June 12, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

 We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tariff to 15-20% imposed by the U.S., most likely agreed in Q4 2025 and to be implemented in 2026.  However, a 35% probability exist of no deal and this could eventually mean higher tariffs (Fig

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U.S. Deficit and Government Debt Concerns
Paying Article

June 10, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

 The large U.S. budget deficit has helped push up 10yr real yields to 2% in 2024/2025, but both the budget deficit (heavy issuance) and government debt trajectories (sustainability and rating concerns) are key going forward if the 10yr budget bill passed is similar to the House Bill.  Foreign acco

Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Room to extend April gains

June 16, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Volatile trade in Q2 has seen rebound from fresh year low 3514 to retrace almost all of the March/April losses to reach 3960 high

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U.S. Outlook: Slowdown but not Recession, Cautious Fed Easing
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

•    Policy uncertainty remains high and final details of the tariffs will depend on the decisions of the courts as well as those of President Trump. However the magnitude of the tariffs is becoming easier to predict than the detail. Trump looks set to insist on a minimum average tariff of at

North American Summary and Highlights 20 Jun
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - Friday saw a sharp rise in EUR/JPY as USD/JPY and EUR/USD both advanced.  

FX Weekly Strategy: June 9th-13th
Paying Article

June 6, 2025 3:19 PM UTC

Risk positive market tone keeping the JPY under pressure
Risk premia look too low, but no obvious trigger for near term rise
GBP should start to weaken against EUR as UK earnings growth declines
AUD and NOK have potential to extend gains in risk positive market

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EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
Freemium Article

July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides.  Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up

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Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th

FX Weekly Strategy:Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

Geopolitics Remain in the Spotlight
Slate of U.S. Data will otherwise dictate sentiment
And Likely See Choppy DXY
Followed By Canada CPI and GDP

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

No change in rates or dots for FOMC 
Splits to Continue within BoE
SNB Toying With Being Negative
Norges Bank Policy Easing Schedule Clearer
Riksbank to Cut and Reassess Policy Outlook 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 10th
Paying Article

June 9, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

A Rather Empty Calendar Sees Headline/Tweets Moving Market
Japan PPI Continue to pile up Pressure
And Should Support the JPY Further

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Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam.  This could still be fol

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 11th
Paying Article

June 10, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

U.S. - China Trade Talk In Focus
 Tariff impact still modest, but starting to build for U.S. May CPI
DXY Likely to Dominate Movement

North American Summary and Highlights 9 Jun
Freemium Article

June 9, 2025 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD had a mostly softer tone, a recovery in early North American trade fading in a day of limited news. 

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Equities Outlook: Choppy Then 2026 Gains
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

       Though the U.S. equity market has rebounded, we still scope for a fresh dip H2 2025 to 5500 on the S&P500 as hard data softens further to feed into weaker corporate earnings forecasts and CPI picks up and delays Fed easing.  However, the AI story is still a positive, while share buybacks

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Iran: Measured Next Steps?
Paying Article

June 23, 2025 3:17 PM UTC

  A measured or modest Iran retaliation could be used by the U.S. to seek a path back towards negotiation.  Israel would likely want to continue to degrade Iran nuclear and military facilities, but the U.S. could eventually pressure Israel to stop.  This is our baseline, though the military attac

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 6th
Paying Article

June 6, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

USD may remain under pressure on softer employment report
JPY still looks to have the most potential for gains
EUR a little stretched after gains post-ECB
CAD vulnerable if employment data shows another unemployment rise

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June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 19th
Paying Article

June 18, 2025 3:06 PM UTC

AUD can gain support from employment data
CHF unlikely to suffer much from SNB rate cut
GBP may recover slightly unless BoE sounds surprisingly dovish

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Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
Paying Article

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

North American Summary and Highlights 13 Jun
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 7:56 PM UTC

Overview - North America saw the USD correct from gains in Asia and North America, though the correction lost momentum after an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 6th
Paying Article

June 5, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

USD may remain under pressure on softer employment report
JPY still looks to have the most potential for gains
EUR a little stretched after gains post-ECB
CAD vulnerable if employment data shows another unemployment rise

FX Weekly Strategy: June 30th - July 4th
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

US employment report the prime focus
Some risk of weaker numbers after higher claims figures from mid-May
General USD weakness remains hard to oppose
JPY could recover some ground on the crosses on weaker US data

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Hold Then Cautious Easing
Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish BoE Hold 
SNB Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option
Norges Bank Coming (Very) Late to the Party
Riksbank Cuts and Flags Possible Further Move

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 19th
Paying Article

June 18, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

AUD can gain support from employment data
CHF unlikely to suffer much from SNB rate cut
GBP may recover slightly unless BoE sounds surprisingly dovish