U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

Japan: Not Abenomics 2

November 5, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·       While some fiscal stimulus into 2026 is likely from the new PM Takaichi, this is unlikely to be aggressive given the JGB supply pressures and the need for support from other parties in passing fiscal measures.  A return to QE (2nd arrow of Abenomics) is highly unlikely, with the BOJ

October 30, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

There ie nothing tangible in the ECB update today to suggest that a further easing is likely at the next meeting on Dec 17-18.  However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s resilience alongside a perceived reduction in global risks, the easing window has not been c

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?

October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of

UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages

November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1).  Regardless, the latest l

October 29, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

Having delivered what was described as a final rate cut last time around (ie Sep 23), the Riksbank Board will be pleased with the data flow since.  GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming suspicions

ECB – In a Good Place or Just Complacent?

November 14, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

The ECB is of the view that downside growth risks have dissipated somewhat, this possibly helped by its recent actions which it suggests leave its current policy stance in a good place.  However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s alleged resilience, we think, the

October 30, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting with a 7-2 vote

Bank of Canada - Hawkish Ease with Current Rate Level Seen as Appropriate

October 29, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish easing, cutting rates for the second straight meeting by 25bps, to 2.25%, but stating that if inflation and activity evolve in line with its projection, the current rate is seen as about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy th

U.S. Supreme Court Threat to Trump Tariffs

November 12, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Hearings at the U.S. Supreme Court over the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs suggests that at least a partial ruling against the tariffs is likely, probably before the end of the year, though there is no date set for the decision.  Over half of Trump’s tariffs are threatened by the case b

UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?

November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak.  Indeed, we see

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy

November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme

October 22, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, and did so again in September in what was a lo

Sweden Riksbank Review: Board Sticks to it Plans

November 5, 2025 9:44 AM UTC

As we anticipated in our preview, the Riksbank Board is pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming (bot

UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless

November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone.  As a result, we see September G

October 30, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

 It continues to be the case that, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.3% in the year to Q3, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking save to encourage a Council view of EZ eco

FOMC - Strong Differences of Opinion Leave December Decision Dependent on Incoming Information

October 29, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

After a statement that contained no major surprises, the highlight of FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was his comment that there were strong differences on policy going forward, and that a December ease was far from assured. While we still feel that on balance easing in December is

October 29, 2025 4:14 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting 

October 21, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

As with recent Council meetings, what is important when the ECB gives its next (almost certain) stable verdict on Oct 30, is not what it says.  Instead, in particular, it is how much the impression is left that the easing window has not closed. The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has trou

UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best

November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking.  Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar

EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): No Halloween Horror from HICP Update

October 23, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Mainly due to unfavourable base effects, EZ inflation has edged up in the last few months, but we think that this is temporary and that a fresh fall, possible to below the 2% target may occur in the October flash numbers – with a formal forecast of a 0.3 ppt drop to 1.9% and the core falling almos

October 20, 2025 4:36 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low.  But we see most, if not all, of this rise being reversed in

U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued

November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

·       We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing.  Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n