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China Outlook: 2024 on Track, but 2025 Headwinds

June 19, 2024 9:35 AM UTC

Public investment and industrial production in high tech and renewables are helping to support growth and should get the economy close to 5% in 2024.  However, underneath the surface, consumption is slowing, private sector investment and employment growth is sluggish, and residential property inves

Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Consolidation below 3700 expected to give way to further gains in Q3

June 12, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

Consolidation at the start of Q2 around the 3500 level gave way to further gains to reach the 3700 level

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2024 Q1 Country Insights Scores to download in Excel
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Below is the access to our full range of scores across 174 countries.

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2024
Paying Article

May 28, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2024.

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H1 2025 Fiscal Stress or Crisis?
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We see the U.S. facing fiscal stress in H1 2025.  Either a re-elected President Biden would be restrained by Republicans over raising the debt ceiling or a president Trump would want to make the lapsing parts of the 2017 tax cuts permanent.  Rating agencies would be unhappy with either scenario an

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DM Fiscal Consolidation Problems: Politics/Central bank QT and Low Nominal GDP
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

 Some governments are politically reluctant to restrain government expenditure growth or in the U.S. case raise taxes.  This means that intermittent fiscal stress and concerns can be seen in the coming years.  However, to get to crisis levels would require a government that abandons any attempts

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Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

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European Parliament Election Results: A Swing to the Centre Right But Further Right in France
Paying Article

June 10, 2024 8:52 AM UTC

This week-end’s European Parliament elections produced the widely expected swing to the right, albeit more an electoral rebuff for incumbent ruling parties as voters registered their protests against current governments.   Hard-right parties largely did well but there were clear exceptions (Belg

North American Summary and Highlights 3 June
Freemium Article

June 3, 2024 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - Slippage in EUR/JPY was the main move in Europe but North America saw the USD fall on weaker ISM manufacturing data.  

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Fed Easing Expectations: Volatile and Data Driven
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

 Bottom Line: Fed easing expectations have been reset to higher for longer.  However, softer real sector data, plus less worrying inflation monthly outcomes, can rebuild easing expectations.  We see the first 25bps coming at the September 19 FOMC meeting and around this time a noticeable increase

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 31st
Paying Article

May 30, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Japanese CPI could impact the JPY, which looks close to a bottom
US PCE data needs to be weaker to extend USD decline
EUR data looks unlikely to have a big impact
EUR/CHF decline hard to oppose but CHF/JPY looks too high

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar to last report
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 6:13 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book looks very similar to the last one released on April 17. Findings on activity and the labor market look acceptable to the Fed, but some inflationary pressure persists.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Higher in consolidation, focus on .6700/15 highs
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation above the .6650 congestion and scope seen for retest of the .6700 level and .6715, May high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending consolidation within the .6700/.6600 range
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 12:13 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation around .6650

North American Summary and Highlights 29 May
Freemium Article

May 29, 2024 7:25 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally firmer as equities slipped. UST yields increased but yields were also higher in Europe.  

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SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting.  We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.  

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Mexico: Political Noise Amplifies Market Fears Amid Sheinbaum's Win
Freemium Article

June 12, 2024 9:07 PM UTC

Claudia Sheinbaum's election win was expected, but MORENA's strong victory was surprising. This led to market concerns, significant peso depreciation, and fears of anti-market policies under Sheinbaum's possibly more radical government. Lopez-Obrador's proposed judicial reforms added to market worri

North American Summary and Highlights 12 June
Freemium Article

June 12, 2024 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell sharply on a softer than expected CPI before seeing a partial correction after the FOMC. 

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China CPI: Core Slows and 10bps June 17 MLF Cut?
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 7:34 AM UTC

 China disinflation is clear in the latest numbers for May, with core falling 0.2% on the month.  Further stimulus will likely arrive in the form of monetary easing.  While it is a close call, we look for a 10bps cut in the medium-term lending facility rate (MLF) from 2.50% on June 17.    

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, June 10th -14th
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 7:08 PM UTC

U.S. CPI To Be Slower overall
U.S. PPI Following a strong April
UK GDP Fresh Correction on the Cards?
USD/JPY to Strengthen on any BoJ Surprise

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ECB Review: Clearly No Policy Pre-Commitment But Policy Entering New Phase
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

As has been the case with many recent ECB verdicts, markets are keener to hear what is being said by the Council rather than what has been done.  In regard to the latter, and given the almost unanimous hints from Council members, all policy rates were cut by the expected 25 bp, with the key deposit

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring 1.2800/18 highs, room to extend
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 1:53 AM UTC

Settled back in range from the 1.2818 high but limited pullback keeps pressure on the upside

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Bank of Canada Eases by 25bps on Improved Inflation Picture
Paying Article

June 5, 2024 4:49 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a 25bps easing to 4.75% as expected and the tone of the statement and particularly the press conference was somewhat dovish, giving some detail on why it is pleased with progress on inflation. However easing at each of the remaining four meetings this year looks unlikely

Psychology for major markets May 29th
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 10:03 AM UTC

Steady quiet markets with carry trade favoured

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 8:55 AM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed early gains on softer U.S. data. INR saw the largest gains of 0.18%, followed by MYR 0.16%, SGD 0.08%, PHP 0.05%, HKD 0.04% and CNY 0.03%; the biggest loser is THB 0.05%, TWD 0.04% and CNH 0.01%.
USD/CNH is trad

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France Debt: Dependent on Non-Residents
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 9:20 AM UTC

Any further major fiscal slippage under a new government could prompt more of a reduction in French government bond exposure, which would likely mean a multi month/quarter risk premia for France and cause spillover difficulties for Italy. It is worth remembering that France is dependent on non-resid

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

RBA to stand pat, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 13th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
Stronger employment data see muted impact on the Aussie
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

North American Summary and Highlights 10 June
Freemium Article

June 10, 2024 7:34 PM UTC

Overview - A quiet day saw USD/JPY and GBP/USD slip in Europe but reverse direction in North America.  

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

June 10, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the majority of greenback strength began after the stronger than expected NFP data. KRW saw the largest win of 0.55%, followed by IDR 0.4%, PHP 0.16%, INR 0.12%, TWD 0.07% and MYR 0.06%; the biggest losers are SGD 0.47%, THB 0.07%, C

North American Summary and Highlights 7 June
Freemium Article

June 7, 2024 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw strong and broad based gains on a stronger than expected US non-farm payroll increase.  

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6200/18 resistance
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 12:28 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the .6200 level as prices consolidate test of the .6200/.6218 resistance

U.S. Initial Claims higher, Q1 Unit Labor Costs revised down
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

Initial claims are a little higher at 229k in the week to June 1 (two weeks after May’s payroll was surveyed) hinting at some labor market slowing. A downward revision to Q1 unit labor costs to 4.0% from 4.7% was unexpected while April’s trade deficit of $74.6bn from $68.6bn deteriorated a littl

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range-bound in consolidation, lower later
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 12:53 AM UTC

Range-bound in consolidation from the 154.55 low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring 1.0900 - studies improving
Paying Article

June 4, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh test of congestion resistance at 1.0900

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South Africa Elections: A Coalition Government is on the Horizon
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom line: As we forecasted in our previous pieces, it seems a coalition government with an ANC-lead will be formed following the presidential elections on May 29, according to the preliminary results. It is very likely that ANC will be losing its majority dipping below 50% as it is currently the

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U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices close to 0.25% headline and core
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

April’s personal income and spending data is subdued, if in line with expectations, with the core PCE price index up by 0.2%, overall PCE prices up by 0.3%, with personal income up by 0.3% and spending up by 0.2%. Before rounding core PCE prices were up 0.249% with overall PCE prices at 0.257%, so

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EZ HICP Review: Core Disinflation Unwinds as Services Resilience Persists?
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This abated last month and even more so in these May numbers, with the headline moving up from the unchanged 2.4% reading to a three-month high of 2.6%,

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed the overnight gains as Treasury Yields retreat. CNH saw the largest win of 0.27%, followed by CNY 0.23%, SGD 0.16%, INR 0.03%; the largest losers are KRW 1.05%, IDR 0.62%, TWD 0.45%, PHP 0.37%, THB 0.15% and HK

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 30th
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Some downside risks for the USD on US data
USD/JPY remains the most obviously out of line with spreads
EUR/USD to hold steady

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U.S. Financial Stress: Select Issues Not Widespread
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Higher U.S. interest rates are still feeding through with a lag, which can cause weaker corporates and households problems but point to divergence within consumption and investment rather than anything more serious. High leverage for hedge funds/issues for a small subset of banks and high holdings o

Americas Summary and Highlights 27 May
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

The USD had a choppy profile against the EUR and JPY in holiday thinned Americas trading.
The JPY has held onto marginal gains in Europe in holiday thinned trading with the U.S. and UK on holiday today. 

FX Weekly Strategy: May 27th-31st
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:42 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

Psychology for major markets May 24th
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

USD supported after strong PMI

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This week's Fed Speaker and May FOMC Minute Review
RBNZ Keeping Restrictive Rates Longer
UK Called for July Election
UK Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Canada April CPI Shows Continued Progress in the BoC core rates

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UK Sales Weakness Curbing Pricing Power?
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

Ending an interesting week of UK data, retail sales slumped in April, partly due to what was a wet month.  Notably, sales volumes fell by 2.3% m/m following a broadly flat February and March 2024 and were down by 2.7% y/y and 3.8% below their pre-pandemic level.  This weaker-than-expected outcome

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Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 May
Freemium Article

May 21, 2024 4:37 AM UTC

RBA minutes highlighted tightening remains on table 
Australian telecommunications giant Telstra slashing up to 9% of its workforce

The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch