February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021

February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter

February 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

•    Existing Fed officials and Fed chair designate Warsh have divergent views on the impact of AI in boosting productivity and whether this means lower inflation/policy rates or high business investment/electricity prices argues against lower policy rates and potentially meaning a higher shor

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate But Uncertainty Heightened

January 28, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and continues to see the current policy rate as appropriate, Governor Macklem stating updated economic forecasts have not changed significantly since October. However in highlighting heightened uncertainty the statement appears to leave ri

Europe Nuclear Weapons; NATO and Greenland

February 3, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·        Without the U.S. nuclear weapon umbrella, Europe’s nuclear deterrent is too weak. Secondly, European countries are highly reliant on U.S. missile defense, command, intelligence and reconnaissance, which military experts estimate could take 10 years to replace. Major European count

UK Gilt Vigilantes and Politics

February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

•    The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor.  Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre

FOMC Pauses With Risks Seen Diminished

January 28, 2026 8:33 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December. We continue to expect two 25bps easings this year, coming in June and September.

Trump’s Problems

January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns.  Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Strike Down

February 20, 2026 4:31 PM UTC

·        The 6-3 vote by the Supreme court and full ruling against reciprocal tariffs means that the Trump administration will likely resort to other tariffs for negotiating leverage.  However, the Trump administration will also pressure to codify existing trade framework deals that have be

U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease

February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger

ECB Preview: After GDP and Before Feb Meeting

January 30, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

·       Most on the ECB council appear to be comfortable with steady policy in H1 2026, after a cumulative 200bps of cuts.  This will likely be the overall message from the February 5 ECB meeting. This will paper over differences for 2027 among ECB council members. However, we agree with the

Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair

January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.1% rather than 3.6% after wider November trade deficit

January 29, 2026 6:58 PM UTC

Following today’s wider trade deficit for October, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q4 GDP estimate down to 4.24% from 5.4%. We have revised our estimate to 3.1% from 3.6%. We are assuming a December deficit only marginally narrower than November’s, and significantly wider than October’s. 

BOE March Cut and Then More

February 5, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

·       Six members of the MPC appear worried about the disinflationary impact from a weak economy and four of whom actually voted for a 25bps cut at the February meeting.  BOE Bailey and Mann, looking at the MPC minutes, are very close to voting for a rate cut, which suggests high confidenc

Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Peaks on Base Effects, Not Demand

February 3, 2026 6:52 AM UTC

The January inflation spike is more noise than signal, driven by base effects, not a demand surge. With core pressures steady and the rupiah in focus, BI remains on a measured path. Easing remains likely in H1.

Iran: Limited U.S. Attack?

February 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

 ·       Iran authorities appear reluctant to meet the Trump administration’s demand to stop nuclear fuel production for potential weapons.  This increases the odds of a limited attack by the U.S. on Iran to 30-40% (Figure 1), which could occur as soon as this weekend.  The most likely I

EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump

February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action.  Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,

UK CPI Review: Fresh and Marked Fall Resumes as Core Slips to Cycle-Low?

February 18, 2026 10:03 AM UTC

Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, the clear fall in the headline rate and further looser labor market messages still point to a BoE rate cut next month, not least given the likely return to the 2% target by April. These projected falls started with these Ja

ECB: Papering Over the Cracks

February 5, 2026 2:51 PM UTC

·       As widely expected the ECB kept the policy rate unchanged at the February meeting.  The broad message remains that the ECB Council is comfortable with current policy rates, which provides short-term forward guidance of no change in rates.  This message came from the ECB statement an

Warsh, AI and Lower Policy Rate?

February 16, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Warsh will find it tricky to convince FOMC members that AI is currently boosting productivity and acting as a disinflationary force.  However, Warsh could also try to get the Fed to be more forward looking and less data dependent, which could add some proactivity into Fed debates. Fo

U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates

February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

·        Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of

Cuba: Pressure Grows

February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime.  While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex