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SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?
December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11. It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1). But this will be enough to just
2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
December 2, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter o
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector
December 9, 2025 5:01 PM UTC
The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows. Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r
UK GDP Review: Underlying and Headline Economy Negative, Fragile and Listless
December 12, 2025 7:47 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the October GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months (Figure 1), and where the unexpected further 0.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled
December 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b
UK Budget Review: Deferring the Fiscal Pain?
November 26, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
The Budget looks something of a fudge, with no fiscal tightening until 2028 suggesting policy changes very much back-loaded (Figure 1) and puzzlingly timed to take effect in what may be the lead-up to the next general election. The immediate the result is actually a modest boost to GDP growth in t
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector
December 15, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.
Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause
December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ
Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative
November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak
Swiss SNB Review: Preserving Ammunition
December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC
Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change. Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation. Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy
AI and U.S. Equities
December 8, 2025 8:50 AM UTC
· The AI story has driven broad momentum in the U.S. equity market, but will likely become narrower driver in 2026 and 2027, as not all big AI/tech companies will generate clear explosive revenue from areas outside cloud computing and semiconductor chips. Companies that are also depende
UK: BoE Offers Financial Boost?
December 2, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
In its updated financial policy report which included fresh bank stress tests, the BoE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is reducing bank capital requirements. This very seems to be designed to encourage bank to lend and may reflect what have been modest, if not flagging, numbers regarding actual p
USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump
November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
• Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters. This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo
UK Budget Outlook (Nov 26): The Fiscal Blame Game – Yet Again!
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
If not the most keenly awaited Budget for some years, Chancellor Reeve’s updates on Nov 26 is certainly the one that has attracted the most speculation and from all sides. What is clear is that amid several factors, a marked fiscal tightening is in store. This though now seems as if it will be
Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data
December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 18): Policy to be Unchanged and little Move in Projections?
December 8, 2025 1:18 PM UTC
As we anticipated in our review, the Riksbank Board will be very pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%). GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confir
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum
December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct
Eurozone Outlook: Running to Keep Fiscally Still?
December 11, 2025 10:09 AM UTC
· Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we retain our below consensus activity forecast for 2026 but see a fiscally driven pick-up into 2027. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but the economy has actual
EZ HICP Preview (Dec 2): Services Inflation Less Problematic?
November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latte
UK CPI Preview (Dec 17): Down Further from Likely Peak?
December 8, 2025 9:43 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak. Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus to 3.6%, the looming November numbers may show a same-sized fall to 3.4%, a six-month low. We see the core rate seen also dropping 0.2 ppt b
UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
December 16, 2025 8:06 AM UTC
Adding to the array if weak activity updates of late, there are increasing signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs more clearly and broadly with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down alm