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Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Resilient But Core Goods Soften Further
January 7, 2026 10:44 AM UTC
HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, albeit where adverse rounding pre vented a fall to 1.9%. We see this as th
German HICP Review: Headline and Core Down Afresh
January 6, 2026 4:25 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process resumed with a bang as December saw a larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation. Indeed, the headline HICP fell 0.6 ppt to a five-month low of 2.0%. This was largely food and energy driven but still with some fall in core at least according to
U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4
January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC
December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s
Venezuela: Oil and Geopolitics
January 5, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
· Venezuela’s oil production will likely take years to increase substantively due to poor infrastructure, the need for substantive investment, and a lack of democratic political stability. In terms of geopolitics, operations in Venezuela reinforce the Trump administration’s pivot
UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?
January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant. Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n
Bessent: New Fed Inflation Range and Dropping Dots?
January 2, 2026 11:30 AM UTC
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent over the Christmas period suggested that the Fed should shift to targeting an inflation range and drop the quarterly dots. What impact would this have? Such a change would give the Fed more flexibility on the margin, but not significant. This could make communicat
U.S. Consumption Vulnerable to Asset Market Hit
December 30, 2025 8:42 AM UTC
Overall, we see consumption growth prospects as being modest for 2026, as low to middle income households still struggle with the cost of living crisis. Additionally, the slowdown in immigration is causing less overall employment gains and in turn less absolute increase in real income and consumptio
Markets 2026
January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC
• For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7. However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b
U.S. December Employment - Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint but Unemployment down
January 9, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
December’s non-non-farm payroll at 50k is marginally softer than expected, and a net negative given a substantial net downward revision of 76k to October and November, with the bulk of the revision coming in October when the government shutdown made measurement more challenging. Unemployment howev
Taiwan: Worst Case Consequences
January 13, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
· The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage before 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the communist party). Wi
Maximum Trump
January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain. Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 6, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
ECB Steady Signals, But
January 19, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
• We remain of the view that financial conditions and lending rates are worse than the current ECB depo rate level suggest and means that 2026 EZ growth does not really pick-up. Combined with a mild undershoot in inflation, this can build the case for the ECB to deliver two 25bps cuts.
U.S. Personal Income underperforming Spending, Core PCE Prices maintaining trend
January 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The personal income and spending report for both October and November has been released and shows healthy spending, up by 0.5% in each month outperforming income which rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November. PCE prices, both overall and core, rise by 0.2% in each month, modest, but stronger th
AI and U.S. Productivity
January 5, 2026 8:04 AM UTC
· Structural labor and overall productivity will be boosted if current AI adoption is sustained at a pace quicker than the adoption of the internet. However, not all areas of the U.S. economy are exposed to AI benefits, as manual work can only be replaced by humanoid robots with maj
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
January 8, 2026 4:00 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Trump on Greenland and the Fed
January 21, 2026 4:12 PM UTC
Trump has provided some relief to markets by stating that he will not take Greenland by force, though his tone towards Europe remains hostile, suggesting that he will impose tariffs, which may receive a limited European response. Separately Trump stated he would announce a new Fed Chair soon.
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, January 21st
January 21, 2026 4:00 AM UTC
UK CPI expected to show a small rise in December
GBP to remain under some pressure due to risk negative tone
USD unlikely to recover unless some progress is seen on Greenland
JPY weakness is illogical but needs BoJ intervention if it is to reverse
Turkiye MPC Preview: Easing Cycle Will Continue on January 22
January 12, 2026 1:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 36.5%-37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 22 supported by continued deceleration trend in inflation in December and relative TRY stability. CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adj
Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath
January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow