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Japan: Not Abenomics 2
November 5, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· While some fiscal stimulus into 2026 is likely from the new PM Takaichi, this is unlikely to be aggressive given the JGB supply pressures and the need for support from other parties in passing fiscal measures. A return to QE (2nd arrow of Abenomics) is highly unlikely, with the BOJ
Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen
November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC
October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC
Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1). Regardless, the latest l
UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?
November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak. Indeed, we see
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows. Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r
ECB – In a Good Place or Just Complacent?
November 14, 2025 11:55 AM UTC
The ECB is of the view that downside growth risks have dissipated somewhat, this possibly helped by its recent actions which it suggests leave its current policy stance in a good place. However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s alleged resilience, we think, the
U.S. Supreme Court Threat to Trump Tariffs
November 12, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
Hearings at the U.S. Supreme Court over the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs suggests that at least a partial ruling against the tariffs is likely, probably before the end of the year, though there is no date set for the decision. Over half of Trump’s tariffs are threatened by the case b
UK Budget Outlook (Nov 26): The Fiscal Blame Game – Yet Again!
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
If not the most keenly awaited Budget for some years, Chancellor Reeve’s updates on Nov 26 is certainly the one that has attracted the most speculation and from all sides. What is clear is that amid several factors, a marked fiscal tightening is in store. This though now seems as if it will be
Sweden Riksbank Review: Board Sticks to it Plans
November 5, 2025 9:44 AM UTC
As we anticipated in our preview, the Riksbank Board is pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%). GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming (bot
Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy
November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best
November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking. Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar
UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless
November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC
Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone. As a result, we see September G
U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued
November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC
· We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing. Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n
U.S. Treasuries: Waiting for Data and Yield Curve Steepening
November 4, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
• Multi quarter we still look for 75bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.4%. However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium versus Fed Funds
UK Budget Review: Deferring the Fiscal Pain?
November 26, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
The Budget looks something of a fudge, with no fiscal tightening until 2028 suggesting policy changes very much back-loaded (Figure 1) and puzzlingly timed to take effect in what may be the lead-up to the next general election. The immediate the result is actually a modest boost to GDP growth in t
EZ HICP Preview (Dec 2): Services Inflation Less Problematic?
November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latte
Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
November 24, 2025 1:23 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. The data was originally schedu
UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?
November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak. Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff
UK Gilts: Fiscal, Politics and BOE
November 12, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
· 2yr Gilt yields have scope to fall through 2026, as we see growth and inflation slowing more than the BOE and this will likely see the MPC changing view and cutting policy rates to 3.25% in H1 2026. Though a pause could then be seen, we see one final BOE cut then being delivered to
BoE Review: Fiscal Elephant in the Room Ignored – For Now!
November 6, 2025 1:47 PM UTC
A tight vote was always likely for the November MPC verdict, but the 5:4 split was closer than expected, but almost a repeat of the August decision when rates were cut to the current 4%. What seems clear is that the effective swing voter was Governor Bailey but who coloured his decision with a cle
USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump
November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
• Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters. This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo
Markets 2026
November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated. The BOJ could partiall