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Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Room to extend recovery from 3700 support

March 17, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Staged rebound from the 3700 support at the start of 2025 Q1 to reach the 4000 level

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Country Insights: Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets
Freemium Article

March 10, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

The latest update of our Country Insights model ranks the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait (KWT), and Taiwan (TWN) as the strongest performers in our Fiscal Policy’s sub-factors among selected emerging markets. Conversely, Egypt (EGY), Brazil (BRA), and China (CHN) rank among the weakest within

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March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q2 2025
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

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Uncertainty Over Pace and Scale of Extra European Defense Spending
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

·       The crucial date for more clarity is the June 24-26 NATO summit.  Donald Trump might attend but will ask for more spending.  NATO head Rutte’s desire is for above 3% of GDP for NATO countries, but the politics and budget suggest that a 2.5% minimum may only be agreed with Germany

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U.S. Outlook: How Much Damage Will a Trade War Do?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy, consumer spending in particular, ended 2024 looking healthy, but with inflation still above its 2.0% target if well off its highs. The Trump administration’s more aggressive than expected trade war has made a return to the inflation target more difficult and raised dow

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Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

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China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
Freemium Article

March 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

   We look for 4.5% GDP growth in 2025.  Though residential property investment will subtract less from GDP growth, net exports will also be a drag on the economy in 2025 due to the trade war with the U.S.  Further fiscal stimulus beyond March’s NPC measures will be required to achieve a 5% GD

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Trump Latest Thinking
Paying Article

March 5, 2025 11:07 AM UTC

Bottom line: President Donald Trump signaled that he is committed to tariffs to raise revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade relations.  This three part approach will likely shape implementation of further product and reciprocal tariffs from April.  However, reports sugges

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Germany Attempts to Unlock Debt Brake
Freemium Article

March 5, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

Germany’s likely new Chancellor Friedrich Merz has (and as has been flagged since his election win last week) announced plans to amend the country’s constitutional fiscal restraints, the so-called debt brake and within the confines of the current parliament.  Merz said Tuesday evening the motto

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Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

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Trump and Dollar Policies
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 6:04 AM UTC

   The Trump administration could decide to more broadly talk the USD down or less likely try to reach a cooperative Mar A Lago accord with big DM and EM countries. A more cohesive alternative is a forced currency deal for countries to appreciate their currencies to avoid more tariffs and withdraw

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U.S. February CPI - Renewed progress, but threatened by tariffs
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

February CPI is softer than expected with gains of 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the ex food and energy rate up by 0.227% before rounding. Coming after a strong January conclusions should be cautious, while upcoming months may be lifted by tariffs. However, the data will come as a r

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UK Spring Fiscal Statement – A Patch-up Not a Repair Job?
Freemium Article

March 26, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

Chancellor Reeves never wanted a fiscal event at this juncture.  But market pressure and economic weakness have forced her into a series of government spending cuts designed to shore up her recently revised fiscal goals via this so-call spring statement.  The problem here is twofold. Firstly, the

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Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 5:39 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

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BoE Preview (Mar 20): Being Careful the New Watchword
Paying Article

March 11, 2025 4:37 PM UTC

Having so far cut a modest 75 bp, the BoE rate cut last month was delivered with a clear(er) degree of action, by at least the MPC majority.  But those implied MPC divisions probably reflected increased uncertainty enough for the BoE to have altered its rhetoric somewhat to stress the need for poli

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ECB Review: Disinflation Still On Track But Policy now ‘Work in Progress’
Paying Article

March 6, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

Unsurprisingly, the ECB verdict was less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate was widely expected – and delivered - to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be more opaque.  This both reflects gauging the extent of any lingering degree of policy restric

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China: Only Moderate Fiscal Stimulus
Freemium Article

March 6, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

China announced some fiscal stimulus to help meet the expected 5% GDP target for 2025.  Overall, we have not been surprised by the fiscal stimulus measures announced so far from the March NPC, that have been towards the lower end of expectations.  However, officials on Thursday have hinted that mo

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 28, 2025 4:20 PM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

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EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

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Eurozone Outlook: At A Crossroads?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

·       For once in a long while, we have upgraded the EZ activity forecast and for 2026 actually to a notch above consensus thinking. However, the current backdrop still suggests that while the economy has been growing afresh it is doing so timidly, with downside risks persisting more clearl

Chartbook: US Chart Gold (XAU): Still room to fresh record highs
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

Sharp gains from the 2600 level at the start of the year has seen break above the October 2024 year high at 2790 to reach fresh record high at the 3000 level.

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Germany: Breakthrough in Attempt to Unlock Debt Brake?
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

It does seem as if effective German Chancellor-elect Merz now has enough parliamentary support to amend the so-called debt brake and unlock more spending and borrowing to be directed toward added defense and infrastructure.  Thus, it does seem as if Germany and its economy are undergoing a sea-chan

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Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Models would suggest that the current and prospective direct tariff impact should slow GDP growth to a 1.5% pace, which should see slow Fed easing in 2025 given the boost to inflation. However, the policy uncertainty means that business and consumer behaviour could see a large adverse hit that keeps

FX Weekly Strategy: March 10th-14th
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 9:51 AM UTC

USD has reversed post-election gains
USD downside still favoured as tariff related concerns unlikely to disappear
EUR upside more limited as equity gains may stall
JPY continues to look to have the most upside potential
AUD can play some catch up
CAD may suffer from BoC rate cut

Psychology for major markets March 7th
Paying Article

March 7, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

USD remains under general pressure

North American Summary and Highlights 5 March
Freemium Article

March 5, 2025 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - The EUR continued to advance. US data was mixed but CAD saw support from a one-month postponement of US auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico. 

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Mexico: Uncertainty Mounts as Tariffs Are Imposed
Paying Article

March 5, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

Trump's administration has moved forward with 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, citing drug trafficking and migration issues. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum has stated retaliatory measures will be announced on March 9. The tariffs could push Mexico into recession in 2025, although we forecast growth a

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Trump Tariffs: Bad for The U.S. Worse For Canada
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 3:48 PM UTC

When Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February, we put up a piece outlining the likely economic consequences, which became dated by the end of the day as Mexico and Canada won a one month delay in return for some concessions at the border. We are now recycling that story, with som

Psychology for major markets March 4th
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 11:08 AM UTC

USD under pressure after Trump confirms tariff increases

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Trump Tariffs and U.S. Business and Consumer Sentiment
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

 •    Mexico and Canada are trying to frantically find solutions to delay across the board tariffs again, though the U.S. is hinting that the rate could be less than 25%.  China extra 10% tariff remains likely, as the U.S. increases trade pressure on China.  More tariffs also remain highly

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market remains choppy around Trump's tariff policy changes. The biggest winners are INR by 0.46%, followed by KRW 0.14%, MYR 0.11% and TWD 0.04%; while the largest losers are THB 0.49%, PHP 0.18%, IDR 0.15%, SGD 0.09%, CNH

Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - No revision overall, but consumer spending may look slower
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect the final (third) estimate of Q4 GDP to be unrevised from the preliminary (second) estimate of 2.3%, though in USD terms the revisions will be marginally negative. 

Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Remains Watchful
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia's upcoming monetary policy decisions will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic economic indicators and global financial conditions. With a focus now tilted slightly more towards economic growth than in previous years, BI could surprise markets with its timing and decisions, dependi

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Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 20): Time to Pause?
Freemium Article

March 11, 2025 10:33 AM UTC

Having delivered in January, the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (down to 2.25%) having dropped 1.75 ppt in eight months.  Especially given the recent upside CPI surpris

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U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa

GBP flows: GBP steady after spring statement
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

UK yields lower but GBP steady after spring statement, implying a positive market response, but GBP risks are still on the downside

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Equities Outlook: Turbulence Ahead
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

·       U.S. trade wars will likely hurt U.S. growth and raise inflation, with only small to modest Fed easing and a 10yr budget bill that will likely be neutral to negative for the economy.  With valuations still very high (Figure 1), we see scope for a correction to extend into mid-year th

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Commodities Outlook: Shifting Dynamics
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

The oil market faces mixed forces, including geopolitical pressures, demand concerns, and supply shifts. OPEC+ plans production hikes, driven by stricter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia and President Trump’s push for more supply. However, global demand prospects, especially in the U.S. and China

North American Summary and Highlights 21 March
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 7:13 PM UTC

Overview - A generally quiet day saw the USD make some gains after Trump suggested there would be flexibility on tariffs. 

U.S. Fed's Powell - Waiting for greater clarity
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is in no rush to change policy, and downplayed a technical reduction in QT.

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UK CPI Preview (Mar 26): Inflation Slips as Services Soften?
Freemium Article

March 19, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

January’s CPI numbers showed a marked bounce back up, and with the 0.5 ppt rise taking it to a 10-month high of 3.0%, this being above consensus and BoE thinking.  Notably services jumped from 4.4% to 5.0%, actually below expectations, having been driven higher by a swing in airfares and the rise

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China: Mixed Early 2025 Data and Policy Stimulus
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 9:17 AM UTC

Headline industrial production and retail sales were better than expected, but the breakdown of the data shows a mixed picture for consumption and residential investment remains a negative drag on GDP before the 20% U.S. tariffs hits.  Meanwhile, though the weekend policy announcement on boosting d

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UK GDP Review: Previous Resilience Gives Way to Softer Surveys
Freemium Article

March 14, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive.  The upside surprises in December contrasts with a much softer impression from surveys (Figure 1), the latter now showi

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FOMC Preview for March 19: No change and few clear signals given exceptional uncertainty
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 6:46 PM UTC

In the current exceptionally uncertain environment, the FOMC looks set to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% at its March 19 meeting, and give little away on future policy. The dots will be closely watched but we expect they will change little from January 29. Powell is likely to stress at the press

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 12th
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

Weak equities keep the JPY on the front foot
Yield spreads already justify further JPY gains…
…but more equity weakness may be needed to break key JPY cross support levels
NOK/SEK rally on Monday may be the beginning  of something bigger

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced beneath fresh 2025 year high
Freemium Article

March 12, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Psychology for major markets March 10th
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 11:16 AM UTC

JPY strong as equities soften and US and European yields decline

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Preview: Due March 17 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Only a partial reversal of January's drop
Freemium Article

March 7, 2025 2:53 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 0.5% in February in what would be only a partial reversal of a 0.9% decline in January. Ex autos we expect a 0.3% increase after a 0.4% January decline while ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.4% increase after a 0.5% January decline.

Psychology for major markets March 5th
Paying Article

March 5, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

EUR gaining on expectations of increased European defence spending