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Straits of Hormuz Scenarios
May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S. This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027. The al
Iran Conflict – Who Has the ‘Trump’ Card
April 22, 2026 9:17 AM UTC
When Trump aspires to reaching a deal, he thinks in either black or white. But whether it be political, economic or military the reality is that the world is always various shades of grey. This is very much evident in the way the Iran conflict was planned by the U.S. – the expected clear and r
Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026
April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
· Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
Eurozone: In Dire Straits?
May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing. High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not
Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets
April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC
• Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing. This dive
FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold
April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure
April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im
EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?
April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led. Indeed, thi
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core
May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin
FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September
April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?
April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing. Indeed, part of a broad
Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?
April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a
U.S. April ADP Employment - Labor market still looking healthy
May 6, 2026 12:38 PM UTC
April’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 109k is slightly stronger than expected though not as strong as weekly ADP data had been hinting. Still, as the strongest increase since January 2025, it suggests the labor market is not weakening, suggesting Fed focus should be on inflation
BoE Preview (Apr 30) Divided Again But Unmoved (For Now)?
April 24, 2026 9:34 AM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC unanimous last month and the same decision is expected this time around but with probable fresh dissent, with up to 2-3 members opting for an immediate hike. These splits will be even more evident in the individual MPC member statements (as exp
U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda
May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!
April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC
We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous. Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati
UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms. Admittedly, headlines may be formed around
Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism
May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years. Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though