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Chart USD/CAD Update: Reversal higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have not been seen

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3550 has reached 1.3590

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited scope above 1.3500

September 27, 2024 3:53 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test higher

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited bounce from fresh 2024 year low

September 25, 2024 3:40 PM UTC

The anticipated test of the 1.3436 monthly low of 28 August has extended to post a fresh 2024 year low around 1.3420

Chart USD/CAD Update: Gains to remain limited

September 30, 2024 3:38 PM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.3500 has met selling interest around 1.3525

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower

October 2, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break below 1.3500

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower

October 1, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3500

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure in CAD-driven trade

September 23, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break lower in CAD-driven trade

Chart USD/CAD Update: Focus on 1.3436 in USD- and CAD-driven trade

September 24, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Asterisk denotes strength of level
16:10 BST - Choppy trade around 1.3500 has given way to the anticipated break, with prices currently pressuring support at the 1.3465 weekly low of 6 September in both USD- and CAD-driven trade. Intraday studies are negative and daily readings are also falling, high

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited

September 26, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

The bounce from the 1.3420 current year low of 25 September is giving way to choppy trade below congestion resistance at 1.3500

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China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.  China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis.  Asia widespread banking cris

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China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC

      Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production.  However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects.  Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe

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China Fiscal Stimulus: Details to Follow
Paying Article

October 14, 2024 8:37 AM UTC

Further details of the size of extra central government spending/scaled up local authority purchases of unsold complete homes for affordable housing should be seen late October/early November from the National People Congress.  We estimate Yuan1.5-2.0trn in total of extra spending, which leads us t

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else

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Commodities Outlook: Fragile Foundations
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Oil prices in the short to medium term will be shaped by demand in China and the U.S. In particular, we expect weak data in China to continue weighting on oil prices in Q4 2024, with limited upside risks from supply-side developments. In 2025, demand growth will likely remain slow in the first half,

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BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

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U.S. Outlook: Fed Focus Turning To Downside Risks
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of labor market slowing which poses downside risks to the still impressive resilience of consumer spending, which has sustained healthy GDP growth through Q2 2024. We expect GDP growth below potential in the second half of 2024 and the first half of

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U.S. House Race Becoming Closer
Paying Article

October 16, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

The probability of a Republican clean sweep has jumped to a 25% probability, which could see a future President Trump go beyond renewing 2017 lapsing tax cuts.  It could also increase the odds of tariffs being increased to fund extra tax cuts!  This would likely curtail the Fed easing cycle and pu

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September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

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China Steps Up Support, But Not a Game changer
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:39 AM UTC

China has surprised and cut the 7 day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, with a 50bps cuts in the RRR rate.  Combined with other measures this is a step-up in support and could help GDP on the margin, but the measures are not game changers as monetary policy is currently ineffective.  While furth

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U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

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ECB to Note Better Signs in Bank Lending Survey?
Freemium Article

October 16, 2024 2:17 PM UTC

All and sundry wait as much for the what the ECB says tomorrow (Oct 17) than what it does (ie cut by another 25 bp).  The consensus is that the Council will have to sound much more cautious about downside risks to both (its somewhat optimistic) growth outlook and its too pessimistic inflation pictu

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Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. September CPI - Core returning to trend, gasoline softer
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:26 PM UTC

We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries, we see 2yr yields coming down further on our baseline soft landing view, as the Fed moves consistently to a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds rate. However, with considerable Fed easing already discounted, 2yr yield decline should be modest and 2yr yields should bottom mid-2025. 1

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Eurozone Outlook: Downside Risks or Downside Reality?
Freemium Article

September 23, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

 ·       It does seem as if EZ activity expectations are being pared back in line with our below consensus thinking, most notably for next year. The result is that while the economy has been growing afresh it is doing so timidly, with downside risks persisting through 2024 and 2025 and where

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U.S. Tensions for China: Protected by BRICS and BRI?
Paying Article

October 15, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation.  However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade. BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown

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FOMC Minutes Preview and Data Outlook Before the Next Meeting
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 5:52 PM UTC

After a less than dovish speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the NABE on Monday, it is likely that the minutes from the September 18 meeting due on October 9 will show a similar tone. However the next FOMC decision on November 7 will be data-dependent, and the minutes may highlight the signifi

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Brazil: Moody’s Upgrade Brazil’s Rating
Freemium Article

October 2, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

Moody's upgraded Brazil's rating to Baa1, one level below investment grade, citing growth and structural reforms like tax and labor reforms. While Brazil's fiscal framework still faces challenges, adherence to it could stabilize the Debt/GDP ratio. Analysts were surprised by the upgrade, but maintai

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Equities Outlook: Choppy U.S. and Outperformance Elsewhere
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

 •     We now forecast 5450 for the S&P500 for end 2024, but could see a move to 5200/5000 in the next 3-6 months as volatile data keeps the soft v hard landing debate alive.  On our baseline of a U.S. soft landing, we would see the S&P500 at 5600 by end 2025. The tech sector is still really i

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Turkiye Unveils New Medium Term Program Towards 2024-2027
Paying Article

October 15, 2024 6:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-2027 on September 5. According to the announcement, the main goal of the program aims to bring inflation down to single digits, and ensure price stability. GDP growth aimed to accelerate to 4% next year, 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 202

FX Weekly Strategy: October 14th - 18th
Paying Article

October 11, 2024 3:03 PM UTC

ECB meeting to deliver expected rate cut
EUR/USD risks still on the downside
UK data to support weaker GBP tone
JPY to remain soft in the absence of news

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U.S. September CPI - Core not led by housing this time, Hurricanes starting to lift Initial Claims
Freemium Article

October 10, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

September CPI is on the high side of expectations, up 0.2% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.31% respectively. While the core rate looks similar to August’s, the details are different with strength not led by housing this time. A spike in initial

RBNZ Review: Cutting Along the Playbook
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:46 AM UTC

RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50bp to 4.75%

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UK CPI Preview (Oct 16): Inflation Below Target – BoE Splits Widen?
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 10:14 AM UTC

Helped by a fall in fuel prices, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated softening in services costs, UK inflation may drop to 1.9% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target since April 2021.  Admittedly, the drop in services may be limited to a notch lower from Septembe

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LatAm Outlook: Diverging Patterns
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico started to diverge in terms of growth. While we see Brazil GDP growing above 3.0% in 2024 (pushed by the internal demand), we see Mexico’s growth decelerating to 1.3%, due to weaker demand from U.S. and contractionary monetary policy. In 2025, we see Brazil growing

UK CPI Review: Inflation Below Target – BoE Hawks Placated?
Freemium Article

October 16, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

Helped by a fall in fuel prices and airfares, amplified by base effects, alongside some belated broader softening in services costs, UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in the September CPI (from 2.2%), thus falling below target for the first time since April 2021.  This drop was greater than expected and

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2024
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2024.

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

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Holding the Line: RBI Maintains Policy Rate Amid Economic Optimism
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in consolidation below 149.40 resistance
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 12:39 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation ahead of the strong resistance at the 149.40

Psychology for major markets October 7th
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 10:16 AM UTC

USD staying firm after strong employment report.

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Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus

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Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC

Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran.  However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran.  This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil

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China and Japan Debt Compared
Paying Article

October 10, 2024 1:35 PM UTC

China housing crisis will likely mean that household debt/GDP flat lines in the coming years like Japan after 1990 and be a headwind for consumption.  Meanwhile, the downturn in residential construction is already greater than that experienced by Japan after 1990 and in itself will be remain a stru

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UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only one of

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Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
Freemium Article

October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in

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ECB October Rate Cut for Insurance
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

Recent economic data and national CPI numbers have increased the economic case for less restrictive policy.  Combined with softening of guidance from ECB Lagarde and Schnabel, this leaves us inclined to now forecast a 25bps cut at the October 17 ECB meeting.  This will likely be followed by a 25bp

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Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
Freemium Article

September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC

The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%).  Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global

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Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 12:30 PM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.