View:
DM Money Supply and Private Sector Debt/GDP: Not Enough Borrowing?
October 16, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
· The surge in U.S. household wealth from the post GFC boom in equity and house prices has meant household lending has been subdued but not hitting consumption. The AI infrastructure lending boom needs to be watched in the coming years, especially with the U.S. easing capital ratios.
?
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
October 27, 2026 6:55 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
Strains bring financial conditions into the eurozone mix
October 21, 2026 9:06 AM UTC
* French stress and ECB Lagarde comments switch focus to the tightening in financial conditions
*Past studies show material impact from significant episodes...
* ...with possible implications for core bond demand, ECB pricing and the wider appetite for risk across FX and markets.
UK Q3 GDP Preview - Strong Growth Expected in Q3 But Thereafter?
November 9, 2026 7:09 PM UTC
Despite higher energy costs, growing uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, the UK economy likely continued to grow rapidly in Q3. We expect quarter on quarter growth to have increased by 0.7%, in line with estimates produced by the BoE in last week’s Monetary Policy Report (see Figure 1).
FOMC Preview for October 28: Tightening to be debated but delayed
October 20, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on October 28 and a strong case for a second straight tightening can be made and will certainly be debated at the meeting. However to appears more likely that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0%. It is likely that December’s meeting will see a tightening, but Chairman Wa
Confidence with a K
October 16, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
* Recessionary confidence, resilient spending. Political divisions are evident beneath the headline, but don't explain the macro divergence. High prices part of the story and backed up by micro data research
* Confidence with a K - exceptionally large gap in 'current conditions' sentiment for large e
U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?
October 14, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649
Bank of Canada Preview for October 28: Steady, December tightening not a done deal
October 21, 2026 2:04 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on October 28 and recent soft employment and core inflation data suggest rates will be left unchanged at 2.25%. The BoC is still likely to express more concern about upside than downside risks, but may sound a little more balanced than was the case at the last meeting on Sep
U.S. October CPI - 50bps now set to be debated at December FOMC
November 10, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
October CPI has come in stronger than expected at 0.4% overall with a third straight 0.3% rise in the core rate ex food and energy. Earlier today Fed’s Waller suggested that a 0.3% core increase would justify a 50bps tightening in December. That looks sure to be debated, particularly after October
Preview: Due November 6 - U.S. October Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Subdued report to hint at Q4 slowing
November 5, 2026 4:01 PM UTC
We expect October’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k and by 45k in the private sector, in line with recent trend. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.2%, sustaining September’s increase after two months at 4.1%. We expect a modest 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a fall in the workweek
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
Preview: Due November 10 - U.S. October CPI - A more moderate month
October 27, 2026 6:56 PM UTC
We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate, with October’s core rate seen at 0.2%, 0.22% before rounding. Gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month, and we expect overall CPI to also rise by 0.2%, though at 0.24% before roun
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 15, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
UK Growth Resilience Continues in August
October 15, 2026 7:32 AM UTC
In the event, growth did not contract by 0.1% m/m as consensus had expected, but grew 0.1% in August. While the month-on-month number can be volatile, the more reliable 3-month measure is showing the economy is proving to be a lot more resilient than many had expected. The better growth outturn alon
Bank of England Hikes by 25bp - Another Hike in the Pipeline
November 5, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
The Bank lifted rates to 4% as expected and all members voted to hike even the arch doves. Of the 9 members, 8 members opted for 25bp while Mann wanted a 50bp increase. The Bank is touting a further hike even if Governor Bailey noted that it is not on a “pre-set path” though the longer the confl
Eurozone Economy Remains Resilient in Q3 - Headwinds Ahead?
October 30, 2026 11:41 AM UTC
The economy expanded more than expected in Q3, rising 0.4% q/q from 0.6% before, with the Eurozone aggregate benefitting from Ireland’s large and volatile growth rate. Most of the larger member countries experienced weak quarter on quarter growth, with Germany’s economy increasing 0.2%, Italy’
U.S. September Retail Sales and PPI, October Philly Fed and Empire State, Initial Claims - Generally strong
October 15, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
The latest set of US data is on the firm side of expectations, September PPI at 1.3% overall and 0.7% ex food and energy, September retail sales at 0.8%, 0.9% ex autos. Underlying gains of 0.5% for PPI ex food energy and trade and 0.2% for retail sales ex autos and gasoline are less firm but far fro
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Nov 9-13
November 6, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
Focus remains on AI-risk. Nasdaq attempts to bounce but hasn't broken weak structure yet
US CPI, a relatively sedate month expected. Only partial offset to payrolls, though mmkt /bonds still more impulsively driven by risk
Even if some reactive consolidation, hard to pivot from defensive view on FX ri
Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.