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Trump Tariffs: China and July 9 Reciprocal Deadline
Paying Article

June 12, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

 We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tariff to 15-20% imposed by the U.S., most likely agreed in Q4 2025 and to be implemented in 2026.  However, a 35% probability exist of no deal and this could eventually mean higher tariffs (Fig

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U.S. Deficit and Government Debt Concerns
Paying Article

June 10, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

 The large U.S. budget deficit has helped push up 10yr real yields to 2% in 2024/2025, but both the budget deficit (heavy issuance) and government debt trajectories (sustainability and rating concerns) are key going forward if the 10yr budget bill passed is similar to the House Bill.  Foreign acco

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Tax Foreigners Assets: How To Lose Friends
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 9:12 AM UTC

   Increasing taxes on dividends on U.S. equities and corporate bond coupons would alarm foreign investors and hurt the USD and U.S. equities, as it would amplifies foreign investors concerns that they are overweight U.S. assets and the USD.  Starting a capital war with investors into the U.S. is

Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Room to extend April gains

June 16, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Volatile trade in Q2 has seen rebound from fresh year low 3514 to retrace almost all of the March/April losses to reach 3960 high

FX Weekly Strategy: June 9th-13th
Paying Article

June 6, 2025 3:19 PM UTC

Risk positive market tone keeping the JPY under pressure
Risk premia look too low, but no obvious trigger for near term rise
GBP should start to weaken against EUR as UK earnings growth declines
AUD and NOK have potential to extend gains in risk positive market

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Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?
Freemium Article

May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9.  Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden

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Court Stops Trump Reciprocal and Fentanyl Tariff
Freemium Article

May 29, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

•    The Trump administration will likely follow a multi-track response by appealing the judgement but also fast-tracking section 232 product tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.  The administration could also consider section 301 or 122 tariffs (the latter 15% for 150 days against c

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Trump’s 50% Steel And Aluminum: Negotiating Leverage?
Paying Article

June 2, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

•    President Donald Trump increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% is not just about boosting the steel and aluminum industry.  It also a demonstration that Trump remains in control of tariffs and can aggressively change tariffs to increase negotiating leverage.  It is a mess

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2025 Q1 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
Paying Article

May 29, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the first quarter o

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

No change in rates or dots for FOMC 
Splits to Continue within BoE
SNB Toying With Being Negative
Norges Bank Policy Easing Schedule Clearer
Riksbank to Cut and Reassess Policy Outlook 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 10th
Paying Article

June 9, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

A Rather Empty Calendar Sees Headline/Tweets Moving Market
Japan PPI Continue to pile up Pressure
And Should Support the JPY Further

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 11th
Paying Article

June 10, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

U.S. - China Trade Talk In Focus
 Tariff impact still modest, but starting to build for U.S. May CPI
DXY Likely to Dominate Movement

North American Summary and Highlights 9 Jun
Freemium Article

June 9, 2025 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD had a mostly softer tone, a recovery in early North American trade fading in a day of limited news. 

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Big Beautiful Bill will bring larger US budget deficits
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

The “Big Beautiful Bill” on fiscal policy passed by the House was costed by the Congressional Budget Office on May 20 and shows a significant boost to the budget deficit in the remainder of the current Trump presidential term. This is because tax cuts have been front loaded and spending cuts bac

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Nato Summit 5% Target and Trump
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 10:48 AM UTC

Trump’s natural instincts will likely see extra pressure applied on Europe in the coming weeks to commit to 5%, but we do not see existential threats from Trump.  In the end, our baseline is that NATO will agree a “soft” aim of 5% (3.5% hard military spending and 1.5% infrastructure/cybersecu

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 May
Freemium Article

May 26, 2025 5:39 AM UTC

Trump Delay EU Tariffs Till July 9 after speaking with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
China criticizes Australia's effort to return Darwin port to local ownership
Japan PM aims for a trade deal with US by mid-June

USD flows: USD under pressure
Paying Article

May 22, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

USD weakens after Bessent/Kato meeting, PMIs in focus

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Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
Paying Article

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

North American Summary and Highlights 13 Jun
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 7:56 PM UTC

Overview - North America saw the USD correct from gains in Asia and North America, though the correction lost momentum after an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 6th
Paying Article

June 5, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

USD may remain under pressure on softer employment report
JPY still looks to have the most potential for gains
EUR a little stretched after gains post-ECB
CAD vulnerable if employment data shows another unemployment rise

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Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May CPI - Tariff impact still modest, but starting to build
Paying Article

June 2, 2025 5:50 PM UTC

We expect May CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, the core rate still seeing a modest impact from tariffs given a Q1 inventory build up and uncertainty over low long tariffs will persist, though at 0.32% before rounding we expect the strongest rise in the core rate since

FX Weekly Strategy: June 2nd-6th
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

Tariff issues still the main focus
EUR may suffer from any new US tariff measures
ECB rate cut and lower inflation forecast may also be EUR negative
CAD to gain modest support from BoC
JPY can gain in risk negative secanrio but should in any case be well supported

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 30th
Paying Article

May 29, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

Risks to USD turning negative as market awaits Trump reaction to court decision
USD/JPY vulnerable to any announcement of new tariff measures
CPI data more likely to support JPY than EUR

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ECB Council Meeting Preview (Jun 5): Much Earlier Sub-Target Inflation Outlook?
Paying Article

May 28, 2025 2:30 PM UTC

What is widely seen as an eighth 25 bp deposit rate cut in the current cycle on June 5 may be overshadowed by the ECB’s implicit if not explicit shift about the outlook thereafter.  The door will be left open for a move at the July 24 policy verdict given the array of news (probably negative part

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Likely U.S. Tariff Scenario for Japan
Freemium Article

May 26, 2025 5:36 AM UTC

After the U.S.-UK trade deal announcement, most countries are looking forward to lower tariffs. U.S.-Japan high level remarks are so far positive but lack concrete commitment. The U.S. has said that 10% tariff will be a baseline and we do not see Japan to be an exemption. However, we have a likely t