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Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
AI Labs IPO Fever
June 1, 2026 12:58 PM UTC
· Space X could get an initial good reception, but then go flat waiting for the Open AI and Anthropic IPO’s. Space X is an AI enterprise play rather than space and xAI is lagging. This could mean a modest correction in the U.S. equity market at some stage in the summer, but then the
DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?
June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC
· Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled. Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non
2026 Q1 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
May 29, 2026 11:52 AM UTC
The Country Insights (CI) Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk, measuring a country’s exposure to external and domestic financial shocks and its capacity to grow. Our full range of scores across 174 countries for the first quarter of 2026 is now avail
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable
May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.
FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt
May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question
June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD
U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality
June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message. In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was
ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?
May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC
The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11. As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b
ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?
May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC
When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism. Most important of course is the economic damage that chan
UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?
May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may
UK Labor Market: Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low as Jobs Growth into Sharp Reverse
May 19, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Even more clearly, there are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.8 ppt in y/y terms with the m/m drop the larg
DM Government Bond Markets in Limbo
May 27, 2026 12:22 PM UTC
· DM central bank meetings in June will be crucial, with a high risk of a 25bps ECB hike to warn against 2nd round effects from higher oil prices and a BOJ 25bps hike as part of the ongoing normalisation. However, the tone that the Fed’s Warsh will set will also be key. The bigges
Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?
May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC
In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly. It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias
June 10, 2026 4:55 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, even ex food and en
ECB Preview (Jun 11): Words Not Deeds the Focus
June 3, 2026 10:23 AM UTC
Aware of repeating ourselves (again), it is the case that the next ECB Council meeting will be more important for what is said than what is done. In fact, a 25 bp official rate hike is virtually nailed on irrespective of how events in the Middle East may fare in coming days. But the ECB comments
UK Politics – A Laboured Labour Election Ahead?
May 14, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
It is somewhat ironic that as markets (particularly gilts) fret over a shift to the left causing less fiscal prudency, it is actually the centre of the Labour party that is fermenting the most uncertainty. (Now Ex) Secretary Streeting has yet to make a formal bid to challenge PM Starmer for the le
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC
IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up
U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience
May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p
Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed
May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold
UK CPI Preview (Jun 17): Inflation Peaking?
June 9, 2026 9:37 AM UTC
What have been energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in some aspects of the latest PPI data. Regardless, actual CPI have offered a more benign picture both in terms fo headline and underlying trends. Indeed, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where service