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March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

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Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

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China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
Freemium Article

March 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

   We look for 4.5% GDP growth in 2025.  Though residential property investment will subtract less from GDP growth, net exports will also be a drag on the economy in 2025 due to the trade war with the U.S.  Further fiscal stimulus beyond March’s NPC measures will be required to achieve a 5% GD

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Tariffs: Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 4:12 PM UTC

While surprising the market in their intensity, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs were in line with previous threats on most countries, and with Canada and Mexico being treated less harshly that feared, the net surprise is modest to us. However we do feel that inflationary risks have increased furt

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q2 2025
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

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U.S. Outlook: How Much Damage Will a Trade War Do?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy, consumer spending in particular, ended 2024 looking healthy, but with inflation still above its 2.0% target if well off its highs. The Trump administration’s more aggressive than expected trade war has made a return to the inflation target more difficult and raised dow

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U.S China Trade War: Deal or No Deal Prospects?
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

The prospect of a trade deal between the U.S. and China are less and likely delayed into 2026, due to the hardline stance of Trump 2.0 due to the extra focus on tariff tax revenue and shifting production back to the U.S. It is still our baseline that a deal will be agreed though we would now see a d

North American Summary and Highlights 4 April
Freemium Article

April 4, 2025 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - It was another day of plunging equities, though in contrast to Thursday, the USD was stronger. 

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U.S./China High Stakes Poker
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

The economic hit from a hard stop in U.S. imports/exports is too damaging for both sides and our baseline is still for a truce and de-escalation, in the coming weeks. This could be negotiations on a new trade deal with a more moderate reciprocal tariff on both sides and the extra reciprocal tariffs

USD flows: Mixed tariff bag, some relief for Canada and Mexico, Japan and EU hit
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 9:30 PM UTC

The Trump tariff announcement is a mixed bag, with some relief for Canada and Mexico but aggressive action on Japan and the EU, as well as several developing nations.  The net impact is probably not much off expectations for the US economy, which will face somewhat higher inflation and somewhat slo

North American Summary and Highlights 14 April
Freemium Article

April 14, 2025 7:26 PM UTC

Overview - Equities saw modest gains while UST yields fell significantly. The USD however was little changed. 

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Reciprocal Tariffs: The Hit To Other Countries
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 Overall, we are still assessing the effects on non U.S. countries from the tariffs being imposed by the U.S. via direct trade/business investment/currency and financial & monetary conditions swings.  The impact will be adverse to GDP, but for some major countries could be less than the U.S.  How

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EMEA Economies Will Be Tested Amid U.S. Tariff Heat
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The impacts of U.S. additional tariffs announced on April 2 could likely have multifaceted impacts over EMEA countries. Relatively-low 10% tariffs could open new doors for Turkiye to capture a higher global market share if it can act quickly on trade diversification. We foresee the coun

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Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

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Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 5:39 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

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Commodities Outlook: Shifting Dynamics
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

The oil market faces mixed forces, including geopolitical pressures, demand concerns, and supply shifts. OPEC+ plans production hikes, driven by stricter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia and President Trump’s push for more supply. However, global demand prospects, especially in the U.S. and China

FX Weekly Strategy: April 14th-18th
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Tariff situation unlikely to change materially
Central bank reactions could be key this week
Hard to reverse loss of confidence in the USD
JPY may recover against the EUR
High yielders can improve if volatility declines

Psychology for major markets April 11th
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

USD still weak suffering from simultaneous declins in equities and bonds.

North American Summary and Highlights 8 April
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 8:00 PM UTC

Overview - FX was volatile with no clear direction, as equities failed to sustain a stronger opening. 

U.S. Fed's Powell - Waiting for greater clarity, but clearly concerned
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

Fed's Powell shows concern about the inflationary impact of tariffs, which will imply a cautious approach to easing.

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ECB March Meeting Account – More Focus on Downside Risks than those on the Upside?
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

The Account of the Governing Council meeting on 5-6 March 2025 seemingly dwelt more on the downside risks posted by trade uncertainties than the upside risks posed by fiscal expansion plans across much of the EU.  It noted that not all members supported the proposal to lower the three key ECB inter

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U.S. Tariffs - the EZ/EU Response?
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

The U.S is imposing a widespread tariff on the EU of 20%, higher and broader than expected, this based on U.S. calculation of an effective tariff rate of in effect 39 per cent, a figure the EU puts at about 1 per cent.  Moreover, rather than including factors such as VAT, and hygiene restrictions o

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Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter
Freemium Article

April 2, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

U.S. Fed's Williams - Sees 1% GDP, 3.5-4.0% inflation
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 3:12 PM UTC

Fed's Williams has outlined his economic expectations, and seems most concerned about those for inflation.

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UK CPI Preview (Apr 16): Inflation to Slip Further Ahead of Likely Key April Surge?
Freemium Article

April 8, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

Not surprisingly, February’s CPI data provided mixed signals, albeit reversing some of the upside surprises seen in January data.  The numbers may have undershot expectations, but actually tallied with our and BoE thinking, at least in terms of a 0.2 ppt drop for both the headline to 2.8% and for

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, April 7th-11th
Paying Article

April 6, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Focus on equities and tariffs rather than data
Hard to oppose equity weakness
FX moves to be mainly determined by risk characteristics
JPY remains the safest haven
AUD and NOK will struggle if equities continue to weaken

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 3rd
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

US tariff announcement the main focus
Significant increases already priced in but JPY still looks to have potential for gains
ADP unlikely to move market
Scandis staying strong, NOK favoured

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The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine is Tested
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue, we foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probability) in Ukraine could be sealed in 9-12 months following a cease-fire under current circumstances. In this scenario, we envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around fo

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UK Spring Fiscal Statement – A Patch-up Not a Repair Job?
Freemium Article

March 26, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

Chancellor Reeves never wanted a fiscal event at this juncture.  But market pressure and economic weakness have forced her into a series of government spending cuts designed to shore up her recently revised fiscal goals via this so-call spring statement.  The problem here is twofold. Firstly, the

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Equities Outlook: Turbulence Ahead
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

·       U.S. trade wars will likely hurt U.S. growth and raise inflation, with only small to modest Fed easing and a 10yr budget bill that will likely be neutral to negative for the economy.  With valuations still very high (Figure 1), we see scope for a correction to extend into mid-year th

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EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

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Eurozone Outlook: At A Crossroads?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

·       For once in a long while, we have upgraded the EZ activity forecast and for 2026 actually to a notch above consensus thinking. However, the current backdrop still suggests that while the economy has been growing afresh it is doing so timidly, with downside risks persisting more clearl

U.S. Fed's Waller - Would back a dovish approach if tariffs stay high
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

Fed's Waller suggest he would be more dovish if high tariffs persist, despite a likely inflation spike. 

U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Pessimism deepens further
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.

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Volatile Treasuries But Economic and Foreign Holdings Key
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields were being pushed up by deleveraging among leveraged players, before the 90 days pause on reciprocal tariffs easing deleveraging. Multi quarter the key question for yields is whether real sector data sees a soft or hard landing.  We see a slowdown to sub trend growth

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 10th
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

US CPI of limited interest in current conditions
Norway CPI similarly irrelevant, with the NOK under extreme pressure
Scope for some stabilisation in the risk sensitive currencies
USD seems likely to remain under some pressure given high starting point

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Trade Deals with the U.S.: Pressures and Obstacles
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

Pressures to do trade deals include the weaker U.S. economy and higher inflation when it arrives/foreigners becoming nervous of their USD30trn plus holdings of U.S. securities and more crucially risks to Trump and GOP approval ratings from Republican voters. Obstacles to quick trade deals include Tr

North American Summary and Highlights 9 April
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - Risk appetite surged after Trump announced a tariff pause excluding a fresh escalation against China, lifting USD/JPY and the risk-sensitive currencies. 

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U.S. Equities: Hoping for Tariff Negotiations but Fearing Q2 Data
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 9:08 AM UTC

•    The U.S. equity market still remains under pressure from the announcement effect of large reciprocal tariffs, though hopes of trade deals could start to soon produce a stabilization of the market later this week.  Multi month the U.S. equity market outlook depends on whether a recession

FX Weekly Strategy: April 7th-11th
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 3:41 PM UTC

Focus on equities and tariffs rather than data
Hard to oppose equity weakness
FX moves to be mainly determined by risk characteristics
JPY remains the safest haven
AUD and NOK will struggle if equities continue to weaken

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 3rd
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 8:59 AM UTC

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 2 April
Freemium Article

April 2, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. European USD/JPY slippage was reversed but EUR/USD and GBP/USD extended European gains in North America.

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Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down. 

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Japan Outlook: Inflation Sustainably Above 2%?
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

·         Private consumption will have a modest growth in 2025 along the gradual change in business price/wage setting behavior before slowing to average in 2026. Wage hike in 2025 looks to be at least on par with 2024 after early result of the spring wage negotiation. SMEs are going to be

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2025 4:35 AM UTC

USD may recover modestly on US retail sales
GBP may benefit from lower CPI inflation
CAD has scope for modest gains on unchanged BoC
Risky currency pairs could reverse some recent weakness if volatility declines further

North American Summary and Highlights 11 April
Freemium Article

April 11, 2025 7:34 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained under pressure, but came off its lows in North America. 

North American Summary and Highlights 10 April
Freemium Article

April 10, 2025 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - Despite a soft US CPI, equities slipped back after Wednesday’s surge and the USD fell across the board. 

Psychology for major markets April 9th
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

USD generally sold off as "reciprocal" tariffs take effect

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ECB Preview (Apr 17): Deeper Cuts on Trade Tariffs Broadening Impact
Freemium Article

April 9, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

It is surely not a question of whether the ECB cuts rates again at its Apr 17 decision, but what it communicates about policy thereafter.  Not least given the manner in which financial conditions have tightened, the then-notable change in rhetoric last month to suggest the policy stance had become