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2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
December 2, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter o
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
November 11, 2025 8:01 AM UTC
Previous signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly have evaporated, with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1). Regardless, the latest l
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows. Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r
UK CPI Preview (Nov 19): Falling Back Broadly From Likely Peak?
November 10, 2025 10:49 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July and stayed there for the two following months, with the September outcome having been lower-than-expected outcome in what we (and the BoE) think will be the inflation peak. Indeed, we see
ECB – In a Good Place or Just Complacent?
November 14, 2025 11:55 AM UTC
The ECB is of the view that downside growth risks have dissipated somewhat, this possibly helped by its recent actions which it suggests leave its current policy stance in a good place. However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s alleged resilience, we think, the
U.S. Supreme Court Threat to Trump Tariffs
November 12, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
Hearings at the U.S. Supreme Court over the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs suggests that at least a partial ruling against the tariffs is likely, probably before the end of the year, though there is no date set for the decision. Over half of Trump’s tariffs are threatened by the case b
UK Budget Review: Deferring the Fiscal Pain?
November 26, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
The Budget looks something of a fudge, with no fiscal tightening until 2028 suggesting policy changes very much back-loaded (Figure 1) and puzzlingly timed to take effect in what may be the lead-up to the next general election. The immediate the result is actually a modest boost to GDP growth in t
UK: BoE Offers Financial Boost?
December 2, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
In its updated financial policy report which included fresh bank stress tests, the BoE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is reducing bank capital requirements. This very seems to be designed to encourage bank to lend and may reflect what have been modest, if not flagging, numbers regarding actual p
UK Budget Outlook (Nov 26): The Fiscal Blame Game – Yet Again!
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
If not the most keenly awaited Budget for some years, Chancellor Reeve’s updates on Nov 26 is certainly the one that has attracted the most speculation and from all sides. What is clear is that amid several factors, a marked fiscal tightening is in store. This though now seems as if it will be
Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative
November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak
USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump
November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
• Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters. This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo
SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?
December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11. It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1). But this will be enough to just
EZ HICP Preview (Dec 2): Services Inflation Less Problematic?
November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latte
UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Listless - At Best
November 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and, again, the latest update undershot consensus thinking. Indeed, GDP has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as these September numbers were hit (temporar
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
Preview: Due November 25 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
November 24, 2025 1:23 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. The data was originally schedu
UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?
November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak. Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff
Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause
December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ
UK Gilts: Fiscal, Politics and BOE
November 12, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
· 2yr Gilt yields have scope to fall through 2026, as we see growth and inflation slowing more than the BOE and this will likely see the MPC changing view and cutting policy rates to 3.25% in H1 2026. Though a pause could then be seen, we see one final BOE cut then being delivered to
ECB: Financial Stability Review Less Complacent than Council?
November 27, 2025 1:36 PM UTC
The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Council as to where inflation risks lie. Regardless, as the account of the Oct 29-30 Council meeting chimed with comments from the meeting’s press conference, it does seem to us as i
Markets 2026
November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated. The BOJ could partiall
