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2-Week Ceasefire, Then?
April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
· The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll. While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war. The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w
Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026
April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
· Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,
Iran Conflict – Who Has the ‘Trump’ Card
April 22, 2026 9:17 AM UTC
When Trump aspires to reaching a deal, he thinks in either black or white. But whether it be political, economic or military the reality is that the world is always various shades of grey. This is very much evident in the way the Iran conflict was planned by the U.S. – the expected clear and r
Iran Blockade and What Next?
April 13, 2026 9:58 AM UTC
· Though the U.S. is introducing a blockade on Iran oil exports, we think the U.S. and Iran remain reluctant to restart the war. How Iran responds to the U.S. blockade is important. It could choose to respond by attacking Gulf energy installations before or after the 2-week ceasefir
Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets
April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC
• Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing. This dive
FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold
April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting
Eurozone: ECB Downplaying Supply of Credit as it Focuses on its Cost
April 14, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
Even amid increasing suggestions that the Middle East conflict will reap marked real economy damage that should limit the length and extent of any inflation surge, markets are still pricing in almost three 25 bp ECB hikes in the coming year. We think this is still very excessive and reflects an ou
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated
April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi
China: Oil boosts PPI but CPI Less
April 10, 2026 7:37 AM UTC
• Given lags and the still elevated oil prices for Q2/Q3 delivery it is likely that PPI will be further boosted in the coming months. This could boost 2026 China CPI by around 0.3-0.4% and we changed our 2026 forecast to 1.4% in the March Outlook (here) -- the higher price of Fertilizers wi
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure
April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im
EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?
April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led. Indeed, thi
UK CPI Preview (Apr 22): Inflation Being Fuelled But Watch Financial Conditions?
April 13, 2026 2:39 PM UTC
The stormy weather inflation wise is now very evident, most notably in UK fuel prices surging. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching both consensus and BoE projections we see it jumping to 3.5% in March. Services, however, may stay at 4.3% which was a four-year
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September
April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?
April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing. Indeed, part of a broad
Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?
April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a
U.S. Personal Income slips, Core PCE Prices remain firm
April 9, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a 0.1% decline in personal income for February that significantly underperformed a 0.5% rise in spending (itself slightly below expectations) which saw the savings rate slip back after a tax cut-assisted bounce in January. 0
Straits of Hormuz Scenarios
May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S. This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027. The al
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core
May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin
BoE Preview (Apr 30) Divided Again But Unmoved (For Now)?
April 24, 2026 9:34 AM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC unanimous last month and the same decision is expected this time around but with probable fresh dissent, with up to 2-3 members opting for an immediate hike. These splits will be even more evident in the individual MPC member statements (as exp
UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?
April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers. There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were