View:
Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
2026 Q1 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
May 29, 2026 11:52 AM UTC
The Country Insights (CI) Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk, measuring a country’s exposure to external and domestic financial shocks and its capacity to grow. Our full range of scores across 174 countries for the first quarter of 2026 is now avail
AI Labs IPO Fever
June 1, 2026 12:58 PM UTC
· Space X could get an initial good reception, but then go flat waiting for the Open AI and Anthropic IPO’s. Space X is an AI enterprise play rather than space and xAI is lagging. This could mean a modest correction in the U.S. equity market at some stage in the summer, but then the
DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?
June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC
· Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled. Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable
May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question
June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD
Preview: Due June 5 - U.S. May Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly slower but still healthy
May 26, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect May’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 90k in the private sector, less strong than in March and April but still showing a healthy labor market given a lack of growth in the labor force, leaving unemployment at 4.3% for a third straight month. We expect a 0.3% rise in in ave
China: Divided Economy
June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC
· Overall, growth remains unbalanced. Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still. However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption. While the stimu
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias
June 10, 2026 4:55 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, even ex food and en
U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality
June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC
May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message. In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was
ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?
May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC
The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11. As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b
DM Government Bond Markets in Limbo
May 27, 2026 12:22 PM UTC
· DM central bank meetings in June will be crucial, with a high risk of a 25bps ECB hike to warn against 2nd round effects from higher oil prices and a BOJ 25bps hike as part of the ongoing normalisation. However, the tone that the Fed’s Warsh will set will also be key. The bigges
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
ECB Preview (Jun 11): Words Not Deeds the Focus
June 3, 2026 10:23 AM UTC
Aware of repeating ourselves (again), it is the case that the next ECB Council meeting will be more important for what is said than what is done. In fact, a 25 bp official rate hike is virtually nailed on irrespective of how events in the Middle East may fare in coming days. But the ECB comments
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?
June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p
UK CPI Preview (Jun 17): Inflation Peaking?
June 9, 2026 9:37 AM UTC
What have been energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in some aspects of the latest PPI data. Regardless, actual CPI have offered a more benign picture both in terms fo headline and underlying trends. Indeed, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where service
Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone
June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC
While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a
More Yuan Appreciation, but Controlled
June 4, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
• The Yuan has been appreciating driven by a large trade surplus; the ongoing trade truce with the U.S. after Trump May visit and official acceptance of Yuan gains. Even so, we feel that China’s authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention to stop the move becoming too
BOE: Gang of 6 and Steady 2026 Rates
June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC
Though Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in calling for a one off 25bps risk management hike, 6 MPC members feel that disinflation is showing through and a soft economy and labor market warrants waiting to see energy prices and potential 2nd round effects. This gang of 6 also feels that markets have ti
Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario. In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts. 10yr
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started. Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since