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UK CPI Review: A Pause Before a Peak?
September 17, 2025 6:29 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th
Outlook Overview: Into 2026
September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
· The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of
Eurozone Outlook: Resilience or Irrelevance?
September 22, 2025 9:49 AM UTC
·· Yet again, and amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the ec
U.S. Outlook: Fed Easing to Prevent Recession, but May Also Keep Inflation Above Target
September 22, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
• GDP growth, supported in particular by business investment, was resilient in Q2, but growth in employment is now minimal and that will weigh on consumer spending, particularly with tariff-supported inflation set to restrain real wage growth. Recession is a risk if we see a vicious circle
U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade all stronger than expected
September 25, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
The latest set of US data is clearly on the strong side of expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up significantly to 3.8% from 3.3%, August’s advance trade deficit falling to $85.5bn from $102.8bn, August durable goods orders rising by 2.9% with a 0.4% increase ex transport, and initial claims falling
SNB Review: Staying at Zero – For Some Time?
September 25, 2025 8:03 AM UTC
Very much as expected, both in deed and word, the SNB kept the policy rate at zero this month having cut by 25 bp back in June in June. Indeed, markets priced out what was previously seen as a good chance of rates turning negative, even against a backdrop of the punitive tariff scheme the Swiss econ
DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?
September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC
• We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing. For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen). 10yr yields
France: Prime Minister – Another One Bites the Dust
October 6, 2025 9:01 AM UTC
Either side of the English Channel, politicians are competing to see whether France or the UK can provide a prime minister with the shortest time in power. In the UK that was Liz Truss whose 49 days at the helm of the government in 2022 has now been surpassed by French PM Lecornu who has resigned
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September
October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep
U.S. Government Shutdown Expected Starting October 1
September 29, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
While a last minute deal is not to be ruled out, the US government looks set to shut down on October 1. Once a shutdown starts, the standoff could last for a few weeks, probably not as far as the next FOMC meeting on October 29, though that cannot be ruled out. As long as the government remains shut
Sweden Riksbank Review: Riksbank Delivers Final Rate Cut?
September 23, 2025 8:16 AM UTC
Although aware of the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises as well as what now looks to be a clear fiscal loosening, the Riksbank delivered the 25 bp final rate cut we expected. The Board was very clear that no further easing
China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?
September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
• Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports. A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%
DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.
September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC
· Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go
Japan Outlook: Ready for Another Step
September 22, 2025 1:30 AM UTC
• The recovery in private consumption surprised to the upside is Q2 2025 because wage growth regained traction after clarity on the U.S.-Japan trade front. The gradual transition of business price/wage setting behavior will continue to support consumption in 2025/26. Trade balance in 2025 h
UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing More Clearly on Wages
October 14, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
There may be signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly, if not actually indications that the more authoritative payrolls have stopped falling, albeit this largely due to increasing jobs within the health sector. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a
UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness
October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC
Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding). We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a
Commodities Outlook: Markets in Motion
September 22, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
OPEC+ has entered a new supply cycle, gradually reversing a second layer of voluntary cuts. The latest 1.65 mln b/d tranche is being phased out at 137,000 b/d monthly, likely completed by September 2026, while 2 mln b/d of group-wide cuts remain until the end of 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth will lik
EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties
September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August
September 24, 2025 3:28 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to show another subdued rise, of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while average hourly earnings maintai
ECB Council Meeting Account Review: Complacency Rules the Day as Financial Conditions Tighten!
October 9, 2025 12:52 PM UTC
Unsurprisingly there was little in the account of the ECB Council Meeting of 10-11 September to suggest any rush to change policy with it clear that members on both sides of the hawks vs doves debate wanted more data amid what was considered to be great uncertainty. Thus, the ECB offered little in
FX Weekly Strategy: Sep 22nd-26th
September 19, 2025 2:53 PM UTC
Limited impact likely from S&P PMIs, though weaker US numbers seen
JPY may manage a small recovery, but turn in equities needed to reverse weak trend
SEK could be vulnerable to Riksbank rate cut
Little chance of SNB action, but EUR/CHF may have found a near term base
Fed: Signals 25bps October and December
September 17, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
The median Fed Funds is a strong hint that the Fed will deliver an extra 50bps most likely with 25bps in October and December. However, the split in the 2026 Fed Funds dots forecasts from FOMC members suggests that our forecast of just below trend growth and core PCE above target will likely mean