U.S. August ISM Services - Mostly positive though employment subdued

September 3, 2026 2:19 PM UTC

August’s ISM services index of 55.4 is the strongest since February and up from 54.1 in July. The strength is consistent with a healthy S and P services PMI, even if the latter was revised down to 56.5 from 56.8.

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

UK External Account: The Ugly and the Good

August 31, 2026 11:02 AM UTC

·       The UK has seen a ugly persistent worsening of the EU goods trade deficit since leaving the EU in 2020, but two current account trends are good. The UK is helped by a surging services surplus and also a pick-up in investment income from UK portfolios invested overseas. Nevertheless, G

September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech

August 28, 2026 4:19 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf

September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech

August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf

ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep

August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio

U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations

August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC

While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se

U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations

August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC

While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base

August 25, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’

August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins

August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years.  This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi

Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze

August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base

August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base

August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time

August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment