FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

ECB Preview (Mar 19): No Longer in a Good Place?

March 11, 2026 2:53 PM UTC

With no change in policy expected, what the ECB says is the most important aspect of the ECB meeting next week, both explicitly and implicitly via its updated forecasts (Figure 1).  Both are likely to underscore that rate hikes are certainly possible if the almost inevitable inflation rise proves t

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

Iran War Scenarios

March 11, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·        Our central scenario (75%) remains a multi-week war in Iran. Trump loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices prompts U.S. to declare victory before end of March.  Israel and Iran would most likely agree an effective ceasefire.  The ceasefire would be fragile, however, as it w

Asia Country Risk Ratings

March 10, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

Trump’s Fiscal Dominance

March 10, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

·       Voting will be done by 12 FOMC members and while Kevin Warsh could mellow some centrists, 5 district Fed presidents and Barr/Jefferson are at the Fed until at least 2031. Warsh may merely bring interest rate cuts sooner from June or potentially engineer a small dip below the 3% neutra

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

March 9, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Gulf Countries U.S. Investment Deals Risks

March 9, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Lower budget revenue and a multi-year hit to tourism and the Gulf role as air transit hubs, could see delays and reduction in some parts of the Gulf states USD3.4 trillion deals with the Trump administration. The economic effects on the U.S. would likely be small and the geopolitics b

Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI

March 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.

U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat

March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC

February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

March 6, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

China: 4.5-5.0% GDP Growth for 2026

March 5, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    China announced a central government budget deficit at 4% of GDP, which is the same as last year and points to only modest fiscal stimulus.  Though investment was supported, consumption trade in programs were cut from Y300bln to Yuan250 and no new structural safety net for households hav

U.S. February ISM Services strength contrasts slower S&P Services PMI

March 4, 2026 3:15 PM UTC

February’s ISM services index of 56.1 from 53.8 is the strongest since July 2022 and in a stark contrast to a weaker S and P services PMI of 51.7, revised down from 52.3 to its weakest level since April 2025. The true picture probably lies somewhere between the two surveys, but averaging the two a

Country Risk in MENA

March 4, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

Markets and the Iran War

March 4, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

•    The Trump administration’s objective appears to be pivoting from regime change to hurting Iran ballistic missile capabilities, which argues for a 2-4 week war rather than a prolonged war.  However, the most intense missile battles will likely occur in the next one week and markets are

EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return

March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%

2025 Q4 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel

March 3, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the fourth quarter

China: Yuan Appreciation; U.S. 301 Threat and 4.5-5.0% GDP Growth for 2026?

March 3, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

•    The Yuan has continued to appreciate with no resistance from China authorities. Part of this is a willingness to allow a modest Yuan appreciation in the face of the huge China trade surplus and pressure from U.S./Europe/IMF and others over an undervalued Yuan, but appreciation is also des

Iran: What Length For War?

March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

·       If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism.  If the war is more prolonged (ie months)  then oil/gas supplies could be sque

India GDP preview: India’s Economic Momentum to Ease in Q3 FY26

February 26, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

India’s Q3 FY26 GDP growth is expected to moderate to around 7%, down from over 8% in the previous quarter, reflecting base effects and softer services momentum. The bigger story may lie in the new GDP series revisions, which could reshape the recent growth narrative more than the headline quarter

February 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

•    Existing Fed officials and Fed chair designate Warsh have divergent views on the impact of AI in boosting productivity and whether this means lower inflation/policy rates or high business investment/electricity prices argues against lower policy rates and potentially meaning a higher shor

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation as Goods May Soon Take Core Below Target

February 25, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is possible that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we see the headline rate edging up to 1.8% in the February flash mainly due to ener