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August 17, 2026
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed
August 14, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
China Widening C/A Surplus
August 14, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
• China could reduce its excess current account surplus by a package of real Yuan appreciation; industrial policy reform to clean up excess production and structural boosts to safety nets that can sustainably boost consumption share in GDP. China authorities are reluctant to adopt these
August 12, 2026
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure
August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S. No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the
August 11, 2026
August 10, 2026
Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow
August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas
August 07, 2026
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
August 06, 2026
Brazil: 25bps Cut For September
August 6, 2026 6:53 AM UTC
· BCB cut by 25bps to 14%, as widely expected. The statement suggests that COPOM is looking to pause the easing cycle, but we feel the softening of the economy and inflation numbers are enough to deliver one further 25bps cut in September and then the BCB pauses into Q1 2027. We see
August 05, 2026
AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?
August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC
• Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story. AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand. Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove
July 31, 2026
EZ CPI: Boosted by Energy Prices
July 31, 2026 9:19 AM UTC
• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat
EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects
July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC
• The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat
July 30, 2026
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
. · Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish
BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike
July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC
· Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike. While the MPC has a hawkish bias
July 29, 2026
FOMC - Warsh leaves markets confused
July 29, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
That this FOMC meeting showed a 9-3 vote for unchanged policy, with the dissents being for tightening, shows there was a case for tightening and a case for steady policy. However, the press conference from Chairman Warsh gave little insight on the nature of the debate, talking a lot about how the Fe
FOMC - Warsh leaves markets confused
July 29, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
That this FOMC meeting showed a 9-3 vote for unchanged policy, with the dissents being for tightening, shows there was a case for tightening and a case for steady policy. However, the press conference from Chairman Warsh gave little insight on the nature of the debate, talking a lot about how the Fe
FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean
July 29, 2026 6:18 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.