UK Growth Resilience Continues in August

October 15, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

In the event, growth did not contract by 0.1% m/m as consensus had expected, but grew 0.1% in August. While the month-on-month number can be volatile, the more reliable 3-month measure is showing the economy is proving to be a lot more resilient than many had expected. The better growth outturn alon

UK Growth Resilience Continues in August

October 15, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

In the event, growth did not contract by 0.1% m/m as consensus had expected, but grew 0.1% in August. While the month-on-month number can be volatile, the more reliable 3-month measure is showing the economy is proving to be a lot more resilient than many had expected. The better growth outturn alon

U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?

October 14, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649

U.S. September CPI - Makes a case for tightening, will Warsh?

October 14, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. Overall CPI rise by 0.6% as expected, but was 0.649

UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August

October 12, 2026 4:05 PM UTC

The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon

UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August

October 12, 2026 4:04 PM UTC

The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon

China’s Quite 2nd Tier Banking Clean Up

October 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The quite though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply.  Equity capital injections to 8 large state banks is

USD Focused on CPI, EUR on 2027 French Budget

October 9, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

•    USD: CPI and U.S. Treasuries   
•    EUR and The French Budget Debate  
•    CHF, JPY and GBP: different safe havens from 2010-12
•    AUD Underappreciated by FX not Rates

October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households).  If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through

ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike

October 8, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point

ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike

October 8, 2026 12:46 PM UTC

Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point

ECB won’t come to France’s rescue

October 7, 2026 1:55 PM UTC

Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t

ECB won’t come to France’s rescue

October 7, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t

DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads

October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·       The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium.  However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move.  Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

French Bonds: Global Spillover or Fiscal Crisis?

October 5, 2026 12:36 PM UTC

Overall, the current French government bond widening could partially reverse short-term on U.S. Treasury yields becoming less worried about Fed tightening and also hopes that the 2027 French government budget plan could actually pass.  Some ECB officials could also note the existence of the Transmi

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back