RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Hits Record Lows

December 5, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The RBI’s December cut marks a decisive shift toward pro-growth policy at a moment of exceptionally low inflation. With the economy outperforming and price pressures collapsing, the central bank is signalling confidence—but the trajectory of the rupee and the uncertainty of US trade policy remai

FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing

December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d

U.S. September Core PCE Prices consistent with CPI, December Michigan CSI sees inflation expectations fall

December 5, 2025 3:27 PM UTC

September PCE prices at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy are in line with expectations with the respective gains before rounding at 0.269% and 0.198%. December’s Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations easing, which will provide some comfort to the Fed.

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk

December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

December 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

China/Japan: The Australia Playbook or Grey Warfare

December 4, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

China will likely escalate pressure on Japan to back down over it less pacifist stance on self-defense, as it wants to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S.  One option is to repeat the 2020 copybook when China banned coal imports from Australia for 3 years.  A 2nd alternative is grey warfare a

U.S. November ISM Services - Rise led by delivery times

December 3, 2025 3:17 PM UTC

November’s ISM services index has marginally extended an October bounce, and at 52.6 from 52.4 is at its highest since February. Details are less impressive but the latest two months suggest the economy is still expanding, if moderately, and worries over tariffs, which may have contributed to a di

Asia Country Risk Ratings

December 3, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel

December 2, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter o

December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo

New Dovish Fed Chair and U.S. Yield Curve

December 2, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

·      The initial knee jerk reaction if NEC Hassett is nominated as Fed chair would be for further yield curve steepening in the 10-2yr area.  Even so, the dynamics of FOMC voting could mean that Hassett as Fed chair in itself does not deliver more Fed easing.  This is already evident with

Indonesia’s Inflation Eases in November, Strengthening Case for Prolonged Policy Hold

December 1, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

Indonesia’s November CPI print reinforces a narrative of stability—subdued price pressures, anchored core inflation and a central bank in no rush to move. With inflation well within target and external risks still elevated, Bank Indonesia has the cover it needs to extend its policy pause, keepin

India GDP Review: India’s Economy Surges 8.2% in Q2

December 1, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

India’s GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, far exceeding market and RBI expectations and marking its strongest performance in six quarters. The expansion was powered by manufacturing, services and a sharp rebound in consumption, amplified by a favourable deflator and GST rate cuts. With first-half growth n

China’s Hidden Gold Buying: Why?

November 28, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

Speculation has been growing in the gold market that the surge in unrecorded gold purchases could be linked to China.
Overall, some unreported buying of gold by China could have occurred in 2025 and also in 2022-24. This could be a combination of wanting to avoid upsetting Trump during a tense U.S.-C

USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump

November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

•    Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters.  This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo

ECB: Financial Stability Review Less Complacent than Council?

November 27, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Council as to where inflation risks lie. Regardless,  as the account of the Oct 29-30 Council meeting chimed with comments from the meeting’s press conference, it does seem to us as i

U.S. Corporate Bonds Into 2026

November 26, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       Though U.S. corporate bond spreads are tight, absolute yield levels are reasonable due to higher U.S. Treasury yields than most of the post GFC period.  The main risk remains of a U.S. recession, though economic data is more consistent with a soft landing and we have reduced the prob

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk

November 25, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.

U.S. September Retail Sales lose momentum, PPI strong in goods but weak in services

November 25, 2025 2:08 PM UTC

September retail sales with a rise of 0.2% are weaker than expected and likely to be negative in real terms, given September gains in CPI goods prices, suggesting momentum in consumer spending is starting to fade with employment growth. September’s PPI with a rise of 0.3% overall met expectations

November 24, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

The HICP inflation picture has clouded somewhat of late at least to some. With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  The latte

Bank Indonesia Holds Rates at 4.75%; December Cut Likely

November 24, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held rates in November as expected, prioritising rupiah and inflation stability over premature easing. While a December cut remains likely—especially if the Fed turns dovish—BI has made clear it will move only under the right conditions.

Japan Aging: Consumption Lessons for Eurozone/China?

November 24, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

·       China will likely suffer slowing consumption from population aging in the coming years, as consumption per head falls for over 55’s and large scale immigration is not a likelihood. China’s household wealth is also heavily concentrated in falling illiquid residential property. Chin

Japan: Carrot (Stimulus) and Stick (Intervention)

November 24, 2025 4:43 AM UTC

PM Takaichi's largest stimulus since COVID and her FM's threat to direct intervene in JPY

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r