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March 27, 2026
Mexico: March 25bps Cut, Then September?
March 27, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Banxico decided to cut the policy rate by 25bps from 6.75% due to concerns over the economy, which could be hurt additionally by the Iran war. However, Banxico inflation forecasts are yet to reflect the shift in oil prices and the prospect of further upward revisions argue against a May or June cu
March 26, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?
March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data. We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections. But both it
March 25, 2026
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026
March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th
March 24, 2026
U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow
March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
• The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e
DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths
March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
· The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June
China Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Headwinds
March 24, 2026 7:30 AM UTC
· Our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here) is not a problem, aside from higher prices. We have pushed up our 2026 CPI forecast to 1.4% from 0.5% (higher food prices are also an issue), but as oil/gas prices come down, this suggests very subdued 2027 inflation, which we have cut
March 23, 2026
Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges
March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC
· The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here). The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in
Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces
March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
· For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027. A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi
Iran War Scenarios Updated
March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
· Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory. A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for
March 20, 2026
March 19, 2026
ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!
March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u
BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?
March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war. The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r
March 18, 2026
Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But
March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC
· Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war. We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow
FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP
March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki
March 17, 2026
U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue
March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC
While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue. U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c
March 16, 2026
China: Modest Bounce at Start of 2026, But
March 16, 2026 8:49 AM UTC
· Though the January-February data was better than expected, we expect high oil prices and an adverse effect from the Iran war to hurt China’s export growth. We still feel that the economy remains too dependent on high tech manufacturing and modest consumption will act as a drag on
March 12, 2026
BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?
March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change. But while the MPC as a wh
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 12, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran
March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC
• The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely. China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from
March 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots
March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w
ECB Preview (Mar 19): No Longer in a Good Place?
March 11, 2026 2:53 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected, what the ECB says is the most important aspect of the ECB meeting next week, both explicitly and implicitly via its updated forecasts (Figure 1). Both are likely to underscore that rate hikes are certainly possible if the almost inevitable inflation rise proves t