FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

U.S. Personal Income underperforming Spending, Core PCE Prices maintaining trend

January 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

The personal income and spending report for both October and November has been released and shows healthy spending, up by 0.5% in each month outperforming income which rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November. PCE prices, both overall and core, rise by 0.2% in each month, modest, but stronger th

Trump on Greenland and the Fed

January 21, 2026 4:12 PM UTC

Trump has provided some relief to markets by stating that he will not take Greenland by force, though his tone towards Europe remains hostile, suggesting that he will impose tariffs, which may receive a limited European response. Separately Trump stated he would announce a new Fed Chair soon.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%

January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC

January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and  personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

ECB Steady Signals, But

January 19, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

•    We remain of the view that financial conditions and lending rates are worse than the current ECB depo rate level suggest and means that 2026 EZ growth does not really pick-up.  Combined with a mild undershoot in inflation, this can build the case for the ECB to deliver two 25bps cuts.  

Japan: A Bet To Retake The House

January 19, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Japan PM Takaichi making a bet to retake the lower house on rising rating

Rupee Volatility Tests RBI, But Buffers Remain Strong

January 16, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

India’s forex reserves are under pressure from capital outflows and rupee weakness, but the system remains resilient. The RBI has room to manage volatility, backed by strong reserve buffers. 

UK: More BOE Easing and Politics/Fiscal Policy

January 16, 2026 11:55 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely deliver more rate cuts than discounted by money markets and we forecast three 25bps cuts in 2026 to 3.00%. The UK labor market is weak enough to prompt further wage inflation and underlying inflation slowdown, while fiscal policy is tightening multi-year.  
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China: 2026 Modest Rather Aggressive Policy Support

January 15, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

•    On January 15, PBOC cut the 1yr structural lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% in a targeted move to benefit some borrowers from banks.  Monetary policy will likely remain targeted rather than broad and we see only one 10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate in 2026, as policymakers are con

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%

January 14, 2026 5:51 PM UTC

January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and  personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

U.S. Retail Sales and PPI over October and November not far from expectations

January 14, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

November retail sales with a rise of 0.6% are marginally stronger than expected but the data is close to expectations net of modest negative back month revisions. PPI has been released for both October and November, also net in line with expectations, with October on the firm side in the core rate f

DM Government Debt: 2026 Supply & Voters’ Resistance To Fiscal Consolidation

January 14, 2026 11:55 AM UTC

·        We see the most persistent issue being supply (budget deficit + QT) in 2026, which should lessen into 2027 with a slowdown in ECB/BOE QT and a partial U turn by the BOJ.  However, governments are also struggling with electorates that are resistant to higher taxes or lower governmen

Taiwan: Worst Case Consequences

January 13, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

·        The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage before 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the communist party).  Wi

U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4

January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s

India CPI Review: December CPI Signals End of Disinflation Cycle

January 13, 2026 8:50 AM UTC

December’s CPI print reinforces that the inflation trough is behind us. While headline inflation remains below target, a sharp rebound in core driven by gold and jewellery could limit the RBI’s room for manoeuvre in early 2026. With a new CPI series incoming, the next few months will test the cr

Maximum Trump

January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain.  Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa

U.S. December Employment - Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint but Unemployment down

January 9, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

December’s non-non-farm payroll at 50k is marginally softer than expected, and a net negative given a substantial net downward revision of 76k to October and November, with the bulk of the revision coming in October when the government shutdown made measurement more challenging. Unemployment howev

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December

January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December. 

Indonesia CPI Review: Festive demand drives CPI in December

January 8, 2026 6:50 PM UTC

December’s inflation uptick looks more festive than fundamental. With core pressures muted, Bank Indonesia has room to hold rates, but little appetite to loosen them just yet. 

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath

January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·        A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow

U.S. December ISM Services strength probably outweighs weaker November Job Openings

January 7, 2026 3:38 PM UTC

December’s ISM services index at 54.4 from 52.6 is the strongest since October 2024 with positive details. While some caution is needed with other surveys less impressive the ISM services strength probably outweighs weakness in November’s JOLTS report, where openings fell by 303k to 7.146m.

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Resilient But Core Goods Soften Further

January 7, 2026 10:44 AM UTC

HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, albeit where adverse rounding pre vented a fall to 1.9%.  We see this as th

January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland.  Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings.  Trump would li

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b