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December 15, 2025
China: Weak Growth
December 15, 2025 7:39 AM UTC
• November figures show weak growth and are a concern for momentum going into 2026. Retail sales continues to be hurt by adverse wealth effects and slow job and income growth. Though the authorities are promising to boost consumption, we see this only being modest rather than aggressive
December 12, 2025
U.S. Outlook: Consumers Vulnerable, but Recession Unlikely
December 12, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
• US GDP growth is likely to look solid in Q3 2025 supported by resilient consumer spending, but with slowing employment growth and resilient inflation weighing on real disposable income that will be difficult to sustain. However, while consumers look vulnerable, business investment looks h
Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?
December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
· The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026. However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data. We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a
December 11, 2025
China Outlook: Headwinds Get Stronger
December 11, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· Private domestic demand remains modest, with consumption ranging from modest to moderate (slowed by the housing wealth hit and soft jobs/wage growth) and investment further impacted by the ongoing adverse drag of the residential property bust. China’s authorities prefer a long and
Brazil: March 50bps Cut?
December 11, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
BCB remain focused on getting inflation converging towards the centre of the inflation target range at 3% looking at the December statement. It appears that the economic weakness is not yet great enough to get the BCB to signal a January cut. Nevertheless, with headline inflation falling, the real i
December 10, 2025
Fed: Slower 2026 Easing
December 10, 2025 8:34 PM UTC
Powell in the press conference made clear that the Fed is now in a wait and see mood, with policy rates entering a broad measure of neutral policy rates. This means further weakening in labor demand and then consumption would be required to prompt an early 2026 cut. We are less upbeat than the Fed
December 09, 2025
Americas First: New National Security Strategy
December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC
· The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets. Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again. Nevertheless, the NSS does r
ECB Preview (Dec 18): Still in Good Place – or Even Better?
December 9, 2025 7:52 AM UTC
A fourth successive stable policy decision will be the almost inevitable outcome of the ECB Council meeting verdict on Dec 18, with the discount rate left at 2.0%. The likely unanimous vote will mask splits about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Co
December 08, 2025
AI and U.S. Equities
December 8, 2025 8:50 AM UTC
· The AI story has driven broad momentum in the U.S. equity market, but will likely become narrower driver in 2026 and 2027, as not all big AI/tech companies will generate clear explosive revenue from areas outside cloud computing and semiconductor chips. Companies that are also depende
December 05, 2025
RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Hits Record Lows
December 5, 2025 4:28 PM UTC
The RBI’s December cut marks a decisive shift toward pro-growth policy at a moment of exceptionally low inflation. With the economy outperforming and price pressures collapsing, the central bank is signalling confidence—but the trajectory of the rupee and the uncertainty of US trade policy remai
FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing
December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d
U.S. September Core PCE Prices consistent with CPI, December Michigan CSI sees inflation expectations fall
December 5, 2025 3:27 PM UTC
September PCE prices at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy are in line with expectations with the respective gains before rounding at 0.269% and 0.198%. December’s Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations easing, which will provide some comfort to the Fed.
December 04, 2025
Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, but downside risk
December 4, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect September to show gains of 0.2% in personal income, 0.3% in personal spending sand 0.2% in core PCE prices. This would, assuming no revisions, leave core PCE prices up by 2.8% annualized in Q3, with real disposable income unchanged, well below a 3.1% rise in real personal spending.
China/Japan: The Australia Playbook or Grey Warfare
December 4, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
China will likely escalate pressure on Japan to back down over it less pacifist stance on self-defense, as it wants to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S. One option is to repeat the 2020 copybook when China banned coal imports from Australia for 3 years. A 2nd alternative is grey warfare a
December 03, 2025
U.S. November ISM Services - Rise led by delivery times
December 3, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
November’s ISM services index has marginally extended an October bounce, and at 52.6 from 52.4 is at its highest since February. Details are less impressive but the latest two months suggest the economy is still expanding, if moderately, and worries over tariffs, which may have contributed to a di
December 02, 2025
2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
December 2, 2025 3:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter o
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Still Problematic?
December 2, 2025 10:51 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. This reversed in the flash November numbers in what was an outcome a notch above bo
New Dovish Fed Chair and U.S. Yield Curve
December 2, 2025 1:00 AM UTC
· The initial knee jerk reaction if NEC Hassett is nominated as Fed chair would be for further yield curve steepening in the 10-2yr area. Even so, the dynamics of FOMC voting could mean that Hassett as Fed chair in itself does not deliver more Fed easing. This is already evident with
December 01, 2025
Indonesia’s Inflation Eases in November, Strengthening Case for Prolonged Policy Hold
December 1, 2025 8:14 AM UTC
Indonesia’s November CPI print reinforces a narrative of stability—subdued price pressures, anchored core inflation and a central bank in no rush to move. With inflation well within target and external risks still elevated, Bank Indonesia has the cover it needs to extend its policy pause, keepin