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April 12, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
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April 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a EUR-driven pullback

April 11, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further consolidation
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April 11, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 164.00

April 10, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - within reach of the 165.35 current year high
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April 10, 2024 8:41 AM UTC

The anticipated retest of resistance at 165.00 has been pushed back from 165.15~

April 09, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Edging higher - within reach of the 165.35 current year high
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April 9, 2024 8:54 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 165.00 is giving way to consolidation

April 08, 2024

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Mexico CPI Preview: Well Behaved March
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April 8, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

On April 9th, Mexico's National Institute for Statistics will release March's CPI data. Forecast suggests a 0.4% rise, keeping YoY CPI stable at 4.5%, mainly due to base effects. Core CPI likely to remain steady at 4.5%, showing progress in disinflation despite non-alignment with Banxico's 3.0% targ

April 05, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in range
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April 5, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have been pushed back from beneath resistance at 165.00

April 04, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains in EUR-driven trade
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April 4, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Gains from congestion support at 163.00 are extending in EUR-driven trade

April 03, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Higher in JPY-driven trade
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April 3, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Gains from congestion support at 163.00 are approaching resistance at 164.00 in JPY-driven trade

April 02, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited tests higher
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April 2, 2024 1:47 PM UTC

The anticipated test below congestion support at 163.00 has bounced from above 162.50

March 28, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
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March 28, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended

March 27, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Minor pullback - background studies rising
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March 27, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Consolidation above 164.00 has given way to a EUR-driven pullback

March 26, 2024

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - background studies rising
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March 26, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

Little change

U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Trend flat to marginally positive
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March 26, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

February durable goods orders are in line with expectations with a 1.4% increase overall, 0.5% ex transport, following declines of 6.9%b and 0.3% respectively in January. Underlying trend ex transport remains near flat though marginally positive. Ex defense saw a 2.2% ruse after a 7.9% January fall.

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Chartbook: Quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities For Q2 2024
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March 26, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities/Commodities for Q2 2024 are now available, see resources at the end.  

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EM FX Outlook: Domestic Drivers Key
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March 26, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

   In terms of spot EM FX projections domestic drivers remain critical, with a desire to avoid appreciation versus the USD for some countries.  Fed easing in H2 2024 should however help EMFX more broadly and allow some recovery in spot rates (e.g. Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), South African Rand (ZAR)

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
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March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

March 22, 2024

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U.S. Outlook: Fed to Ease as Economy Gradually Slows
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March 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

•    The U.S. economy has continued to see growth surprising to the upside supported in particular by consumer spending. While the momentum of the second half of 2023 will be difficult to sustain the economy now looks poised for a soft landing, with risk that continued resilience in the econom

March 20, 2024

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China Outlook: The Struggle to Hit 5% Growth
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March 20, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means some of the old engines of growth are not firing.  Some additional fiscal stimulus will likely

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UK CPI Inflation Review: Headline and Core Fall More Broadly, But Momentum Still Evident
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March 20, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months the former having peaked above 10% in February and the latter at 7.1% In May. However, this trend surprisingly stalled in December as the headline rate rose a notch to 4.0%, up from a 27-month low of 3.9%,

March 19, 2024

Chartbook: Chart USD Index DXY: Balanced in broad range - long-term studies mixed/negative
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March 19, 2024 6:43 PM UTC

The anticipated break lower was not seen, with prices posting a smart bounce following the test below support at the 101.40 Fibonacci retracement

March 18, 2024

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China: Unbalanced Growth
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March 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The February monthly data shows unbalanced growth.  Industrial production and public investment picked up, but retail sales slowed and residential property remains a negative drag on GDP.  While H1 GDP growth will be ok, it will likely slow in H2 and we still stick to a forecast of 4.4% for 2024 a

March 15, 2024

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China: No PBOC MTF Cut and Protesting Low Government Bond Yields
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March 15, 2024 8:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The PBOC decided not to cut the Medium-Term Facility (MTF) rate, but surprised by also withdrawing liquidity in what looks like a protest at the recent decline in government bond yields.  A 10bps MTF cut should still arrive in Q2, but later rather than sooner.  

March 11, 2024

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China: Lunar New Year Boosts CPI, But Disinflation Still In Place
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March 11, 2024 8:29 AM UTC

Bottom Line: February China CPI surged to +0.7% v -0.8% Yr/Yr due to three factors.  The late lunar New Year boosted CPI seasonally, while the good lunar New Year also boosted pork/food prices and travel prices.  The bounce is unlikely to be sustained and we see a fall back to 0.3-0.4% Yr/Yr in Ma

March 05, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 6th
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March 5, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Powell testimony to be the main market focus
Mildly hawkish risks seen, but little action likely in EUR/USD or USD/JPY
ADP will probably be ignored
CAD has some limited upside scope on BoC

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China: 5% 2024 Goal Tough with L Shaped Residential Property
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March 5, 2024 9:43 AM UTC

Bottom Line: China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means the old engines of growth are not firing.  Some additionally fiscal stimulus will

March 04, 2024

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Mexico CPI Preview: Easing Inflation to Back March Cut
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March 4, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

INEGI will release February's CPI data, with an expected growth of only 0.1%. Despite this, the Y/Y index is forecasted to fall to 4.4% from January's 4.8%. Notably, Non-Core food CPI contracted by 3.9% in February, showing a reversal from January's rise. We anticipate a 0.3% increase in Core CPI, a