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September 23, 2025

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DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w

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Outlook Overview: Into 2026
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though pharma tariffs are likely, the bulk of tariffs

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DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

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Equities Outlook: Correction Then Up In 2026
Paying Article

September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

•    The U.S. equity market’s bullishness reflects good corporate earnings reality, buybacks and the AI story.  However, we feel that the U.S. economy can deteriorate still further in the coming months, as the lagged effects of tariffs boost inflation and restrain spending/hurt corporate ea

September 22, 2025

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U.S. Outlook: Fed Easing to Prevent Recession, but May Also Keep Inflation Above Target
Paying Article

September 22, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth, supported in particular by business investment, was resilient in Q2, but growth in employment is now minimal and that will weigh on consumer spending, particularly with tariff-supported inflation set to restrain real wage growth. Recession is a risk if we see a vicious circle

September 19, 2025

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China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?
Paying Article

September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports.  A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q4 2025
Paying Article

September 19, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

BoJ Review: Holding the lines
Freemium Article

September 19, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Sep 19st meeting and announced the selling of their ETF and J-REIT holdings

September 17, 2025

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Fed: Signals 25bps October and December
Paying Article

September 17, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

The median Fed Funds is a strong hint that the Fed will deliver an extra 50bps most likely with 25bps in October and December.  However, the split in the 2026 Fed Funds dots forecasts from FOMC members suggests that our forecast of just below trend growth and core PCE above target will likely mean

September 16, 2025

Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices moving higher
Paying Article

September 16, 2025 3:36 PM UTC

We expect August data to show 0.3% gains in both overall and core PCE prices, with personal income also up by 0.3% and personal spending slightly stronger at 0.4%. The data will incorporate historical revisions through Q2 due with the annual GDP revision scheduled for September 25.

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U.S. August Retail Sales - Still Resilient
Freemium Article

September 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

August retail sales with a 0.6% increase, with the ex-auto and ex auto and gasoline gains both at 0.7%, are stronger than expected and suggest continued consumer resilience despite a slowing in employment growth. The rise modestly exceeds a 0.5% rise in CPI commodity prices in August.

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Succession and Strongmen Leaders
Paying Article

September 16, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

In the unexpected scenario of an early death, Putin and Xi have no clear successors, and any new Russia or China leader would have to spend time building domestic strength and compromising on external goals. Erdogan also has no clear successors, which could create political uncertainty. For Trump su

September 15, 2025

Chartbook: Chart USD Index DXY: Consolidation to give way to fresh losses
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 8:53 AM UTC

Anticipated losses following the close below 100.00 and completion of the 2023-2025 distribution top, have met support at 96.38

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China: Broad Based Slowdown
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

       •    The latest monthly data from China show a broad based slowdown in the economy, due to the tariffs and structural weakness.  Though we keep 2025 real GDP at 4.8%, the underlying trend suggest a slowdown to 4.0% for 2026.  China authorities will start to announce fiscal measure

September 12, 2025

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Taiwan: Grey Warfare or Naval Quarantine?
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 11:15 AM UTC

  ·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage. With invasion being too high risk for President Xi (with the U.S. main

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FOMC Preview for September 17: 25bps Easing on Increased Labor Market Risk
Paying Article

September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i

September 11, 2025

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ECB Council Meeting Review: Complacency Rules the Day!

September 11, 2025 2:08 PM UTC

A second successive stable policy decision was the almost inevitable outcome of this month’s ECB Council meeting resulting in the first consecutive pause in the current easing cycle, with the discount rate left at 2.0%.  Also as expected, the ECB offered little in terms of policy guidance; after

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U.S. August CPI, Weekly Initial Claims - Risks on both sides of Fed mandate but possible seasonal adjustment issues for Claims
Freemium Article

September 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is firmer than expected overall at 0.4% and while the core rate was as expected at 0.3% its rise before rounding at 0.346% is uncomfortably high emphasizing the upside risks to the Fed’s inflation mandate. Initial claims at 263k from 236k however point to downside risks to the Fed emplo

September 10, 2025

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DM Rates: Steeper Yield Curves: More to Come?

September 10, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Steeper yield curves are a function of monetary easing cycles, budget deficits, lower central bank holdings of government bonds, a move towards pre GFC real rates and shifting demand from pensions funds and life insurance companies.  Scope exists for further steepening in the U.S., EZ and UK with m

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Freemium Article

September 10, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

September 09, 2025

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Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

September 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and Turkiye.

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France: Kicking the Fiscal Can (Again)
Freemium Article

September 9, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

That France has seen the departure of yet another prime minister is no surprise, hence why financial markets took the confidence vote in its stride.  Admittedly, French sovereign spreads and yields have risen in the last month, but even so the actual level of bond yields remains well below that of

September 08, 2025

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Japan: Political, Trade and Policy Uncertainty
Paying Article

September 8, 2025 4:35 AM UTC

Political, Trade and Policy Uncertainty for Japan as PM Ishiba resigns

September 05, 2025

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U.S. August Employment - Trend now close to flat, backing case for easing
Paying Article

September 5, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll shows that job growth is now minimal, with a rise of 22k almost completely offset by a modest 21k in net downward revisions. Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2% while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, both as expected, though the workweek was weaker than expected. The

September 04, 2025

U.S. August ISM Services - New orders bounce, even of imports
Paying Article

September 4, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

August’s ISM services index of 52.0 is the strongest since February and up from 50.1 in July. The data suggests the US economy continues to grow, if at a moderate pace.