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June 13, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible.
June 13, 2025 4:46 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.
June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.
June 13, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
BOE QT is part of the reason behind both a steeper yield curve and subdued M4 and lending growth. The MPC in September will likely accept that to avoid impacting the monetary transmission mechanism that annual rundown of gilts needs to be slowed from GBP100bln pa to GBP75bln. Internal differences