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October 09, 2024

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Brazil CPI Review: 0.4% Growth in September
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

In September, Brazil's CPI rose by 0.44%, aligning with market expectations and increasing the year-over-year rate to 4.4%. The surge was mainly driven by rising electricity prices, influenced by droughts impacting hydroelectric generation. While other categories behaved predictably, cost-push infla

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 10th
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 2:50 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but may prove a damp squib
Trend USD strength favoured to extend, particularly against the JPY
NOK upside risks on CPI data
Some risk of hawkish tone to account of ECB meeting, but limited EUR upside

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Holding the Line: RBI Maintains Policy Rate Amid Economic Optimism
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase

U.S. Fed's Logan -Favors more gradual path for rates
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD firm, JPY weakness extends
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

USD strength and JPY weakness extends. Echoes of early summer and more JPY wekanes looks likely unless we see weaker US CPI data

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Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. September CPI - Core returning to trend, gasoline softer
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:26 PM UTC

We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.

Europe Summary and Highlights 9 October
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

A very quiet European morning saw marginal gains for USD/JPY which rose 10 pips to 148.65, and small losses for EUR/CHF, which lost 15 pips to 0.9395. 

Psychology for major markets October 9th
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

USD staying firm after strong employment report.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 9th
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

NZD downside risks on dovish RBNZ
AUD/NZD has substantial upside scope
CHF may extend Tuesday decline, especially against the JPY
EUR/USD looking toppy near 1.10

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Extending gains and break above the September high at 1.3650 see room to the 1.3680/1.3700 resistance

NZD, EUR flows: NZD soft after RBNZ, EUR downside preferred
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

NZD weaker after RBNZ rate cut as a further 50bp is seen in November. EUR/USD holding up for now but yield spreads suggest downside risks.

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Still room for corrective bounce
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

 Failed to sustain break above the 0.8400 level and rejection from the .8435 high opening up the .8345 support and .8310 low to retest

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending consolidation around the .9400 level
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around the .9400 level

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending consolidation below 83.9850 high
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 5:26 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 83.9850, September all-time high

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 October
Freemium Article

October 9, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

RBNZ Cut by 50bps as expected
Chinese equities tank

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, October 9th
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

NZD downside risks on dovish RBNZ
AUD/NZD has substantial upside scope
CHF may extend Tuesday decline, especially against the JPY
EUR/USD looking toppy near 1.10

USD/JPY flows: USD Broadly higher
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 5:14 AM UTC

USD is trading broadly higher against majors

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment tanks
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 3:15 AM UTC

Chinese equities tank

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating test of 102.60 Fibonacci level
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October 9, 2024 2:54 AM UTC

Drifting narrowly in consolidation at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at the 102.60 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Turning lower from 15694 high
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 2:27 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation from the 15694 high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Drifting narrowly below 1.3062 high
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices drift narrowly in consolidation below the 1.3062 high

RBNZ Review: Cutting Along the Playbook
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:46 AM UTC

RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50bp to 4.75%

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above 1.3045/00 support
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices steadied within a narrow range above the 1.3060 low

NZD/USD flows: RBNZ Cut As Expected
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:30 AM UTC

RBNZ cuts cash rate by 50bp

Chart EUR/USD Update: Shallow bounce from the 1.0950 support
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:14 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices edged up from the 1.0950 support to consolidate losses from the 1.1200/14, September high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for deeper pullback from 163.58 high
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:50 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 163.58 high and unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Scope for deeper pullback from 149.13 high
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

Settling back from the 149.13 high to consolidate around the 148.00 level

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6715, Fibonacci level
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Break of the .6750/45 congestion area has seen extension to reach the .6715, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback gained strength from stronger U.S. Treasury Yields. The only winners are INR with the largest gains of 0.22%, followed by INR 0.02%; the biggest loser is CNY by 0.63%, followed by TWD 0.32%, PHP 0.19%, KRW 0.15%, THB 0

October 08, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 9th
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

NZD downside risks on dovish RBNZ
AUD/NZD has substantial upside scope
CHF may extend Tuesday decline, especially against the JPY
EUR/USD looking toppy near 1.10

North American Summary and Highlights 8 October
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 7:38 PM UTC

Overview - In a quiet day a weaker CHF was the main move. JPY also lost a little ground after some early gains. 

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SARB in 2025: Rate Cuts Will Continue
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 5:25 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we now foresee the ra

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Risk economy is too strong
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 5:23 PM UTC

Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. September New Home Sales - Extending a correction from a strong July
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 3:36 PM UTC

A September new home sales level of 705k, which would be a 1.5% decline if August’s 4.7% decline to 716k is unrevised, a decline that followed a strong 10.3% rise in July to 751k, the highest level since February 2022. 

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Finding a base?
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:48 PM UTC

We expect a 2.3% increase in September existing home sales to 3.95m, not quite reversing a 2.5% decline seen in August. A recent slowing in trend may soon stabilize with Fed easing starting.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 9th
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:46 PM UTC

NZD downside risks on dovish RBNZ
AUD/NZD has substantial upside scope
CHF may extend Tuesday decline, especially against the JPY
EUR/USD looking toppy near 1.10

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India CPI Preview: Inflation to Surge as Base Effects Fade
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

Bottom line:India’s September inflation level is expected to trend up to 4.1% y/y, given base effects. Global crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions pose risks to inflation in the near term. Meanwhile, monetary policy is expected to remain tight and policy rate to be retained at 6.5

Psychology for major markets October 8th
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

USD staying firm after strong employment report.

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U.S. Fiscal Policy Post-Election: Temporary Fiscal Stress Rather Than a Crisis
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

We remain concerned that temporary fiscal stress will be evident in H1 2025, as rating agencies worry over the deficit/debt and interest rate trajectory that is unlikely to improve under either president.  This leaves an event risk of a ratings downgrade from one of the major agencies, given that t

Chart USD/BRL Update: Extend consolidation above 5.4000 level
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the strong support at the 5.4000 level

Chart USD/CHF Update: Lower in range from the .8600 level
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Settling back in range from the .8600 level and below the .8550 support see room for pullback to the Friday's range low at the .8500 level

AUD, JPY, NOK, SEK flows: AUD slips with Chinese equities
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

AUD lower as Chinese equities reverse recent gains after Golden Week. JPY edging higher, SEK to come under pressure.

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Remains below 195.95 resistance
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

Limited gains above the 195.00 level keep the 195.95, September bounce high, out of reach

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains from September low
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:06 AM UTC

Break above 1.3600 level extending gains from the 1.3420 low see scope for retest of the 1.3650, September high

Chart USD/INR Update: Scope for pullback from 83.9850, all-time high
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 5:36 AM UTC

Scope for pullback while the September all-time high at 83.9850 caps

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 October
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August 
Japan Overall Household spending +2.0% m/m
Japan economy minister Akazawa says drop in real wages is not good news
Chinese equities jumped almost 9% higher in the opening before retracing partial gains