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April 23, 2024

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - HInts of underlying improvement
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April 23, 2024 11:55 AM UTC

We expect March durable goods orders to rise by 2.5%, with most of the gain coming from transport, aircraft in particular, but we expect a 0.5% increase ex transport to show some hints of underlying improvement. 

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Edging higher
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April 23, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

Consolidation above 19.0000 has given way to a test of 19.2000

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Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
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April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

Europe Summary and Highlights 23 Apr
Freemium Article

April 23, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

European PMI prompt a EUR and GBP bounce.
BoJ's Ueda has a barrage of comments on policy stating the obvious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Balanced around 1.4600 - studies under pressure
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April 23, 2024 10:16 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 1.4600 has given way to a minor EUR-driven bounce

Psychology for major markets Apr 23
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April 23, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

USD remains firm, JPY at new 34 year lows

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EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Core Disinflation Signs to Flatten Out Further?
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April 23, 2024 9:43 AM UTC

Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This continued in the March HICP numbers, with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being a notch more sizeable than most anticipated. Regardless,

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 23rd
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April 23, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

European currencies firme rafter better PMIs...
...but little scope for further gains unless US data is surprisingly weak
GBP may rise further unless chief economist Pill sounds dovish
USD/JPY still playing grandmother’s footsteps with the BoJ

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Country Risk in MENA
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April 23, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza.     

GBP flows: GBP up on stronger composite PMI
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April 23, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Stronger services PMIs boosts GBP, more BoE commentary awaited

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
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April 23, 2024 8:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 0.9684/94

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 23, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Still little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Strong resistance at 0.8650/65
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

February gains are extending in GBP-driven trade

EUR flows: EUR up on stronger PMIs
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April 23, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Stronger services PMIs boost EUR/USD, but upside looks limited

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extend gains from 97.77, Friday's spike low
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April 23, 2024 7:34 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the Friday's spike low at 97.77 to retest the 100.00 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for a test above 1.0695/00
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April 23, 2024 7:34 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Fresh 2024 year lows - strong support at the 1.2240 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

April 23, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.2300

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Choppy within the 193.00/190.00 area, lower later
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 7:14 AM UTC

Extending choppy trade within the 193.00/190.00 range area but pressure building on the downside

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating at the 1.0900 level, lower later
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April 23, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 1.0855 low of last week as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending rejection from 1.6680 spike high
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April 23, 2024 6:46 AM UTC

Extending rejection from the 1.6680 resistance and trendline from the August high

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD flows: PMIs awaited, AUD and CAD rallies look fragile
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April 23, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

PMIs awaited with mild downside bias for European currencies. AUD and CAD gains looks suspect given yield spread picture

Chart USD/CNH Update: Higher in consolidation from the 7.2415 low
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April 23, 2024 6:08 AM UTC

Turned up from the 7.2415 low as prices consolidate the drop from the 7.2830 high

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending pullback from 83.5750, all-time high
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April 23, 2024 5:50 AM UTC

 Extending rejection from the 83.5750 all-time high as prices unwind the overbought intraday and daily studies

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 Apr
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April 23, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

BoJ's Ueda has a barrage of comments on policy stating the obvious

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

PMIs the main data focus
More potential for impact from European numbers
BoE speakers will be more closely watched after Ramsden comments on Friday
USD/JPY still playing grandmother’s footsteps with the BoJ

AUD/USD flows: Sanctions concern drags sentiment
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 4:53 AM UTC

US drafting sanctions threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from global financial system
Australia April preliminary PMI Manufacturing 49.9 (prior 47.3) and Services 54.2 (prior 54.4)

USD/JPY flows: A barrage of nothingness
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 4:25 AM UTC

BoJ's Ueda has a barrage of comments on policy stating the obvious
Suzuki says groundwork laid to take appropriate FX action in the G7 meeting

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Lower in consolidation from 16284 year high
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April 23, 2024 3:13 AM UTC

Settling back from the 16284 high as prices unwind the deep overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/THB Update: Scope to retest 37.24, 2023 year high
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April 23, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

Clear break above the 36.80 congestion saw gains to fresh high at 37.10

Chart USD/KRW Update: Room for deeper pullback from the 1400.00 high
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April 23, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Extending corrective pullback from the 1400.00 high as prices unwind overbought daily studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending consolidation below 1.3670 high
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April 23, 2024 2:24 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 1.3670 high with choppy trade unwinding the overbought daily studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.2300 YTD low
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April 23, 2024 1:59 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from the 1.2300 low as prices unwind the deep oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending consolidation above 1.0600 low
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April 23, 2024 1:33 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 1.0600 level 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Pressuring 165.00/35 highs
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April 23, 2024 1:16 AM UTC

Choppy trade keeping pressure on the upside to retest the 165.00/17 resistance

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 154.85, fresh 34-year high
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 1:02 AM UTC

Still pressuring the upside with break to fresh high reaching new 34-year peak at 154.85

Chart NZD/USD Update: Higher in consolidation, room for stronger bounce
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April 23, 2024 12:41 AM UTC

 Turning higher in consolidation to extend bounce from the .5860 low 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Scope to extend corrective bounce
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April 23, 2024 12:25 AM UTC

Consolidation above the .6400 level has given way to break higher above the .6442 resistance 

April 22, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs the main data focus
More potential for impact from European numbers
 BoE speakers will be more closely watched after Ramsden comments on Friday
USD/JPY still playing grandmother’s footsteps with the BoJ

North American Summary and Highlights 22 Apr
Freemium Article

April 22, 2024 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed overall, correcting gains in Europe as equites rallied, but USD/JPY remained firmer, hitting a fresh 34-year high. 

Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Underperforming payrolls
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April 22, 2024 6:40 PM UTC

We expect a 150k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would be in line with recent trend, but continuing to underperform private sector non-farm payrolls, which we expect to rise by 195k. We expect overall payrolls to rise by 255k.

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Preview: Due May 3 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still strong if a little less so, earnings may be above trend
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 4:44 PM UTC

We expect a 255k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, still strong if the slowest since November, with a 195k increase in the private sector. We expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.8% and a slightly above trend 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, lifted by a minimum wage hike in Cali

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 23rd
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 3:03 PM UTC

PMIs the main data focus
More potential for impact from European numbers
 BoE speakers will be more closely watched after Ramsden comments on Friday
USD/JPY still playing grandmother’s footsteps with the BoJ

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March New Home Sales - Stable through Q1, downside risk in Q2
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We expect a March new home sales total of 665k, almost unchanged from both February’s 662k and January’s 664k. Looking into Q2, some slowing is to be expected.

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise, Services to slip
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 2:47 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show a pick-up in manufacturing to 53.0 from 51.9, reaching its highest since May 2022, but a third straight slowing in services to 51.0 from 51.7. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 22, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

Cautious trade has drifted lower

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending consolidation at highs - daily studies leaning lower
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April 22, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 106.00

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German Data Preview (Apr 29): Inflation Drop to Continue Amid Less Resilient Services?
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April 22, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month.  Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati