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December 06, 2024

U.S. Fed's Hammack - One rate cut between now and late January reasonable
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:22 PM UTC

The incoming Cleveland Fed President, Beth Hammack, like her predecessor Loretta Mester, appears to be quite hawkish.

Preview: Due December 17 - U.S. November Industrial Production - Rebounding from hurricanes and Boeing strike
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:10 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% rise in November industrial production with a 0.8 increase in manufacturing, the former partially and the latter fully reversing declines in September and October that were attributed to hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. 

FX Weekly Strategy: December 9th-13th
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:09 PM UTC

Focus shifts to central bank meetings
EUR has modest upside scope
SNB may be influenced by strong CHF
CAD downside favoured, but scope limited

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - FOMC meetings to be a series of close calls
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 4:03 PM UTC

Like hawk Bowman, Fed dove Goolsbee will not make a commitment to December's FOMC decision.

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:51 PM UTC

We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.

U.S. December Michigan CSI - Current conditions surge, expectations slip
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

December’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 74.0 is up from 71.8 in November, but has a surprising mix in the detail, with current conditions up sharply and expectations significantly lower.

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Doesn't take a dissenting vote lightly
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:41 PM UTC

If the Fed decides to ease in December. Governor Bowman may cast a dissenting vote.

Canada November Employment - Strong job growth came largely in the public sector
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Canada’s 50.5k increase in employment was stronger than expected in November, and fully explained by a 54.2k rise in full time work. However, with 45k of the new jobs created coming in the public sector the data is less impressive than it initially seems. With unemployment up and wages slower we c

U.S. November Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

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U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer
Freemium Article

December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym

USD flows: USD lower despite slightly stronger than expected employment report
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

US employment report broadly consensus but marginally on the storng side. But market reaction yield and USD negative

Psychology for major markets December 6th
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 11:18 AM UTC

Market awaits US employment data

Europe Summary and Highlights 6 December
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 11:14 AM UTC

USD/JPY was the main mover though the European morning, gaining more than half a figure on the session and reaching a high of 150.70.

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Central and Latin America: Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for select Central and Latin America countries.  

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

December 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. November Employment To Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
U.S. November ADP Employment Mostly strong despite weak manufacturing
USD/JPY Chops Around
A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One for France

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 6th
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

U.S. November Employment Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Labor Cash Earning Will Capture BoJ's Eye
And Could Drive the JPY Lower

EUR, JPY flows: Squeeze on long JPY positions
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

EUR/JPY recovering but 160 likely to be toppish

Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Turned up in consolidation above 3765/3700 support

December 6, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Staged strong rebound above support at the 3108 February 2024 low to reach 4450 high before giving back half of the gains in volatile trade

EUR, JPY flows: Awaiting US data, German and Japanese data mixed
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 8:12 AM UTC

US employment report will be the focus today. German production daa weaker than expected, but underlying trend improving. Japanese data strong enough to maintain expectations of BoJ tightening

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending losses from the .8958, November high
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

Break of the .8800 level confirm a top pattern at the .8958 high and see room for deeper pullback

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Still room to extend corrective gains
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Break above the 190.00 level further extend bounce from the 188.00 support to reach the 192.00 congestion.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure, 105.62 low at risk
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:38 AM UTC

Break of the 106.00 level return focus to the downside for retest of the 105.62 low

Chart USD/INR Update: Leaning lower in consolidation, room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:26 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the 84.7575 all-time high as prices consolidate the bullish run-up from the 84.2200 low of last week

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 December
Freemium Article

December 6, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

Japanese October household spending -1.3% y/y, +2.9% m/m

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 6th
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:10 AM UTC

U.S. November Employment Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Labor Cash Earning Will Capture BoJ's Eye
And Could Drive the JPY Lower

AUD/USD flows: Preparing for NFP
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 4:53 AM UTC

Regional sentiment upbeat

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending pullback from 7.3150 high
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:27 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 7.3150 fresh year high

USD/JPY flows: Household spending beats
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:05 AM UTC

Japanese October household spending -1.3% y/y, 2.9% m/m

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Under pressure, 15840 support at risk
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:58 AM UTC

Turned back to pressure the range low at 15840 after failing to sustain break of the 15952, November high

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure, further losses in focus
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:41 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend break of the 34.20 low to reach towards the 34.00 level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/KRW Update: Retest 1429.00 high; scope for break
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:25 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 1411.00 support has given way to rebound to retest the 1429.00 high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Poised for retest of 1.3362 support
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:05 AM UTC

Consolidating break of the 1.3400 level following rejection from the 1.3488 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains from November low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 1:44 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.2615/00 support to break the 1.2750 high of last week see prices extending gains from the 1.2487, November low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for retest of 1.0600/10 resistance
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 1:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1.0460 low and above the 1.0500 level see prices poised for retest of the 1.0600/10 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room to extend correction from 156.18 low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:51 AM UTC

Bounce from the 156.18 low see prices unwinding the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation at the 150.00 level
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Extending consolidation around the 150.00 level following bounce from the 148.64 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range-bound above the .6400 low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:21 AM UTC

Steadied at the .6400 low and bounce here see prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as USD is kept lower before Friday's NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.64%, followed by MYR 0.58%, IDR 0.44%, SGD 0.37%, CNH 0.19%, CNY 0.07% and HKD 0.03%; the largest loser are KRW 0.22% and TWD 0.03%.
USD/CNH is trading lower a

December 05, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 5 December
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - In a quiet day the USD saw some slippage, led by EUR/USD. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 6th
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

U.S. November Employment Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Labor Cash Earning Will Capture BoJ's Eye
And Could Drive the JPY Lower

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Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data. 

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Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

We provide reviews of Egypt, Kuwait and Morocco.      

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 5th
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative

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France: A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 8:56 AM UTC

With a parliamentary no-confidence vote having toppled the Barnier administration convincingly, France has no government.  This far from unexpected development is a political crisis and one that even without the fiscal cuts that the failed Budget envisaged is likely to mean that the country also fa

Chartbook: Chart JP Nikkei Update: Consolidating below 40000 level - scope for break
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 8:07 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 40000 level at the start of Q4 as prices consolidate strong rally from the August spike low

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extend consolidation at the .9300 level
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

 Extending consolidation around the .9300 level after bounce attempt was checked at the .9330/.9350 congestion area

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure, .8267/.8259 lows at risk
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 6:46 AM UTC

Under pressure following break of the .8300 level with the .8267/8259 lows now at risk

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower, scope to retest 105.62 low
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 5:42 AM UTC

Leaning lower after failing to get a foothold above resistance at the 106.50 resistance

Asia Summary and Highlights 5 December
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

BOJs Nakamura says he is not confident about sustainability of wage growth