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June 13, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 13 Jun
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 7:56 PM UTC

Overview - North America saw the USD correct from gains in Asia and North America, though the correction lost momentum after an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel. 

Psychology for major markets Jun 13
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 7:17 PM UTC

USD softer after weak US CPI, EUR positive.

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May New Home Sales - April strength unlikely to be sustained
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 6:16 PM UTC

We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible. 

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 4:46 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Fresh 2025 year low
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh losses

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

No change in rates or dots for FOMC 
Splits to Continue within BoE
SNB Toying With Being Negative
Norges Bank Policy Easing Schedule Clearer
Riksbank to Cut and Reassess Policy Outlook 

U.S. June Preliminary Michigan CSI - Back to levels seen before the reciprocal tariff announcement
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower in range
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh test lower

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Volatile trade below 2025 year high - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

The pullback following the test above strong resistance at the 166.68 monthly high of 31 October fell sharply to 165.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Tests lower not sustained
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

Anticipated tests lower have bounced smartly from 142.75/80

Preview: Due June 27 - Canada April GDP - Tariffs starting to bite
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in April, slightly below a preliminary estimate for a 0.1% increase made with March’s report. Tariffs are likely to be a restraint on the economy through Q2 and beyond.

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Potential for a minor pullback in broad range
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

The anticipated break above critical resistance at congestion around 3.000% and the 3.024% year high of October 2023 has not been seen

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Sharp push higher
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Cautious trade around strong support at the 17.7150 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a sharp break higher

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Break higher not sustained
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 10:56 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.5800 has met selling interest around 1.5843

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Volatile trade - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath resistance at the 0.9435 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a sharp pullback

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Israel Strikes Iran Nuclear Facilities and Key Target
China and July 9 U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Deadline
U.S. May CPI Shows Little tariff pass-through
Soft U.S. May PPI but recent revisions have been large
UK GDP Overstating Activity

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 13th
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Israel attack on Iran sparks traditional safe haven reaction
Consumer Surveys Unlikely To Support USD
European CPI Could Trigger A Euro breakout
For JPY to Gain More Strength, Trade Positivity Needed

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating tests lower - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have tested below 0.8100

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Fresh 2025 year low
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 8:28 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 98.00 has tested below the 97.70 weekly low of early-March 2022 to post a fresh 2025 year low at 97.60

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BOE QT: Slowdown in September?
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

BOE QT is part of the reason behind both a steeper yield curve and subdued M4 and lending growth. The MPC in September will likely accept that to avoid impacting the monetary transmission mechanism that annual rundown of gilts needs to be slowed from GBP100bln pa to GBP75bln.  Internal differences

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating gains - downside tests to remain limited
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 8:11 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.8520 has met selling interest at 0.8547/50

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced beneath fresh 2025 year high - studies edging higher
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

Sharp buying interest has posted a fresh 2025 year high around 1.1630

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending choppy pullback from 196.00/40 resistance
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 7:45 AM UTC

Extending losses from resistance at the 196.00/40 congestion and May high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Fresh 2025 year highs, but studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 7:33 AM UTC

The break above 1.3600 has posted a fresh 2025 year high around 1.3632

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extend rejection from 94.74 high
Paying Article

June 13, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend rejection from the 94.74 mid-week high