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June 21, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 21 June
Freemium Article

June 21, 2024 7:27 PM UTC

Overview - EUR weakened on European PMI data while the USD was lifted by US PMI data, though the USD gains on the US data were seen largely versus the JPY.  

FX Weekly Strategy: June 24th-28th
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

JPY weakness reaching uncomfortable levels
SEK may be vulnerable after Riksbank, particularly versus NOK
Politics could start to come into focus
EUR may see some jitters ahead of the French election

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating fresh test below 1.3700 - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 21, 2024 2:51 PM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion support at 1.3700

U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Only a modest decline
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

May existing home sales with a 0.7% decline to 4.11m were in line with expectations and show a third straight decline, but these declines have become increasingly modest and the sharp 9.5% increase seen in February has still not been fully reversed.

U.S. June S&P PMIs - Impressive May gains, particularly in services, unexpectedly extended
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:07 PM UTC

June preliminary S and P PMIs have extended the unexpected strength seen in May with manufacturing increasing to 51.7 from 51.3 and services rising to 55.1 from 54.8. While the gains on the month are modest, the change in tone over the last two months, particularly in services, is impressive.

USD flows: Supported by strong PMIs
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

USD up on better than expected PMIs, particularly against the JPY

Canada April Retail Sales - Stronger month, trend still subdued
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.7% increase in April retail sales is as expected and signaled with the preliminary estimate made with March’s data but ex autos the rise is much stronger than expected at 1.8%. The advance estimate for May data is however weak at -0.6%.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Potential for a minor test lower
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:37 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 0.6650

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced around 170.00 - further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Little change, as recent sharp volatility gives way to fresh consolidation around congestion at 170.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:24 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 159.00 in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

The break above 105.50 has reached 105.85~

Chartbook: Chart GBP/USD: Consolidating - potential for a test lower into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 11:57 AM UTC

European Summary and Highlights 21 June
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 10:59 AM UTC

The EUR fell back through the European morning after weaker than expected June PMIs. 

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 10:44 AM UTC

Consolidation around the 17.9415 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to fresh losses

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for still lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.4700 has tested below congestion support at 1.4650

Psychology for major markets June 21st
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

EUR staying soft after weak PMIs

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

BoE MPC Splits Enlarge to Suggest Cut Soon
SNB 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
RBA Recognized slower inflation moderation
Norges Bank Excessive Last Mile Caution?
U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Current Account all disappoint

...
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 21st
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

US PMIs a focus after May jump
Modest dip expected but unlikely to be enough to trigger much reaction
JPY weakness continues and may bring the BoJ into action
GBP could fall further but big EUR/GBP recovery unlikely ahead of French election

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating gains - potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 8:17 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.9563 monthly low of 19 April is giving way to a corrective pullback

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating sharp gains - further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

June 21, 2024 8:07 AM UTC

The sharp break above congestion at 0.8900 has met selling interest around 0.8925

Chartbook: Chart AUD/USD: Potential to extend gains in Q3
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

Turned up smartly from the .6360 April low before settling into consolidation at the .6700 level and trend line from the January 2023 high. 
The latter is just below the trend line from the February 2023 high and break here will be bullish and extend gains from the April year low and see scope to th

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Range trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:45 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion resistance at 0.8450

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a break lower

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Freemium Article

June 21, 2024 7:24 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.2700 has reached support at the 1.2650 Fibonacci retracement

EUR flows: Dips on soft French PMI
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

French PMI lower and EUR follows, German data awaited. 

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidating, lower see room to target 1.6000
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.6060 low as prices unwind intraday studies though the downside still vulnerable and see room to the 1.6000 level

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Poised for retest of 201.60 YTD high
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Break above the April/May highs at 200.55/200.75 see the YTD high at 201.60 now within reach

GBP flows: GBP little changed after retail sales
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

EUR/GBP initally saw a small dip but the recovery in sales in May is of limited significance.

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

Extending break of the April high at 104.95 to extend the underlying bull trend from the 2020 low to reach the 106.00 level

JPY flows: Another day of JPY declines
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 6:27 AM UTC

Seventh consecutive day of USD/JPY gains despite yield spreads moving in the JPY's favour. Intervention threat rising

...
Bank Indonesia Holds Rate Despite IDR Weakness
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:54 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating bullish break to fresh high at 83.6725
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

Saw rally through the 83.5750 high of April to reach fresh all-time high at 83.6725

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 June
Freemium Article

June 21, 2024 5:07 AM UTC

Japan May CPI headline 2.8% y/y

Chart USD/CNH Update: Still room to extend gains
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:04 AM UTC

Bullish break above the March high at 7.2830 has seen extension above the 7.2900 level to reach fresh high at 7.2925

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 21st
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

US PMIs a focus after May jump
Modest dip expected but unlikely to be enough to trigger much reaction
JPY weakness continues and may bring the BoJ into action
GBP could fall further but big EUR/GBP recovery unlikely ahead of French election

USD/JPY flows: The return of jawboning
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Suzuki said excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economies
Japan May CPI headline 2.8% y/y 

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains, but stretched
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 3:19 AM UTC

Clear break above the 16400/16414 area extending the underlying bull trend from the 2021 low to reach fresh high at 16474

Chart USD/THB Update: Range-bound in consolidation
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 3:06 AM UTC

Little change, with prices locked in consolidation within the 36.85/36.65 range

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending gains, focus on the 1400.00 high
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:56 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1388.00 resistance has given way to break to extend gains from the 1343.00, May low

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extend consolidation within the 6-week range area
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Back to retest the 1.3545/50 resistance as prices extend consolidation above the 1.3500 level

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, room to 1.2635, 1.2600
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 2:07 AM UTC

Consolidation around the 1.2700 level has given way to selling pressure to retest the 1.2657 low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:50 AM UTC

Back to pressure the 1.0725/1.0700 support following rejection from the 1.0760 high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains, focus on 170.90 high
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:31 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 170.00 level has given way to break to extend gains from the 167.52 low of last week

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains, but stretched
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 1:11 AM UTC

Break above the 158.00 level has seen extension through the 158.44 resistance to reach the 159.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending consolidation below .6150 resistance
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation below the .6150 congestion

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating, still scope to .6700/15 range highs
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from the .6680 high

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Japan Outlook: Slow but not Steady
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.4% from +0.8% because private consumption has contracted more than expected in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.4% from +2.1% to address the translation from accelerating wage growth to inflation.

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback gained strongly on other dovish central bank rate decision and outlook, along with falling equities and higher yields. IDR saw the largest losses of 0.4%, followed by SGD and THB 0.27%, INR 0.23%, KRW 0.21%, CNH 0.13%,