LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

EU2016 NL

U.S. Nagging EU on Trade, Same Old Pattern

October 17, 2018 / Kevin Harris
U.S./EU trade détente seems to have run aground, with “seems” the operative word.

NAFTA Deal Removes a Major Risk

October 01, 2018 / Kevin Harris, Pedro Tuesta
The agreement reached between Canada and the U.S. in NAFTA talks means a major risk to the North American economies has been eliminated.

Italy Government: Lacking 2020 Vision?

October 05, 2018 / Andrew Wroblewski, Gianluca Ziglio
While markets and the media may focus on the updated fiscal forecasts in assessing the Italian government’s ability and willingness to meet mandated budgetary goals, perhaps more focus (and concern) should be put on the incoherent and disorganized manner in which the fiscal outlook is being cobbled together.

China: PMIs Point to Manufacturing Slowdown

October 01, 2018 / Jeff Ng
China’s manufacturing PMI indices were even worse than our non-consensus view of lower numbers in September. Consensus only expected modest weakening. We expect non-manufacturing sectors to help support GDP growth for the rest of 2018.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

Mexico Flows: Curve Corrects Down as Global Backdrop Stabilizes

October 16, 2018 / Pedro Tuesta

Cetes curve corrected down across the board as the market slowly got behind Banxico's less hawkish stance and a stabilizing global backdrop.

Monthly View: U.S. Chart NYMEX Dec Crude Oil

October 18, 2018 / Rob Zukowski

Bearish 1-month view to key weekly chart trend line at 66.20.

China Flows: USD/CNH stretched 

October 18, 2018 / Jeff Ng

This comes after USD/CNY at highest levels since January 2017.

Aon's 2018 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps