FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 24-28

August 21, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Small upward revision for U.S. Q2 GDP 
U.S. July PCE prices to match CPI
U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance Wider in nominal and real terms
Canada Q2 GDP Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports

U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong

August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending gains

August 21, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to further gains

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 186.00 - studies rising

August 21, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 186.00 has given way to a pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - background studies under pressure

August 21, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

The break above 159.00 has not been sustained

Canada June retail sales - Strong end to Q2, but July seen weaker

August 21, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

June Canadian retail sales with a 0.6% increase are slightly stronger than the 0.4% preliminary estimate made with May’s data and in real terms increased by an impressive 1.5%. This is supportive for Q2 GDP though the Q2 retail sales gain of 0.4% (not annualized) is moderate in real terms, if up 2

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 21

August 21, 2026 12:13 PM UTC

National CPI Still Cushioned
USD/JPY Consolidating at 158.00
DXY coming under pressure

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Extending June losses

August 21, 2026 11:20 AM UTC

Consolidation within the 99.50 - 100.00 range has given way to anticipated selling interest

This week's five highlights

August 21, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

UK Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
FOMC Minutes Show Inter-meeting data seen as important
U.S. July Industrial Production Healthy excluding a dip in autos
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits Mixed

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Higher in choppy trade - studies under pressure

August 21, 2026 9:40 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a bounce in both EUR- and CHF-driven trade

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure

August 21, 2026 8:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade around congestion resistance at 0.8000

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced above strong support - studies under pressure

August 21, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Lower in range, but studies continue to rise

August 21, 2026 7:51 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath strong resistance at the 0.8585 monthly high of 30 July has given way to a pullback

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised to extend late-June gains

August 21, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at congestion around 1.1700 and the 1.1725 Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for further gains

August 21, 2026 7:21 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath the 1.3657 monthly high of 1 May

Chart USD/MYR Update: Consolidating at 4.0340 low, but still heavy

August 21, 2026 6:27 AM UTC

Break of support at the 4.0500/4.0460 area has seen extension to 4.0340 low

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Room to retest 1.1915 low

August 21, 2026 6:06 AM UTC

Break of support at the 1.2000/1.1980 area see prices extending losses from the 1.2100 high of last week to reach 1.1950 support

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Weighing on 17700/17690, June lows

August 21, 2026 5:21 AM UTC

Losses through the 17770 low of last week see prices extending losses to retest the 17700/17690, June lows

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 August

August 21, 2026 4:48 AM UTC

All items of Japan CPI Below Target Range

USD/JPY flows: Little Changed

August 21, 2026 4:43 AM UTC

All items of CPI Below Target Range

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 21

August 21, 2026 4:29 AM UTC

National CPI Still Cushioned
USD/JPY Consolidating at 158.00
DXY coming under pressure