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March 31, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend
March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment
U.S. March Consumer Confidence resilient to higher inflation expectations, February job openings trend near flat
March 31, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
Despite a bounce in inflation expectations, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is surprisingly stronger in March at 91.8 from 91.0, a second straight rise though not fully erasing a January dip. February JOLTS data on job openings suggests a fairly stable labor market picture.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement
March 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued
March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.
CBRT Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Rising Inflation Targets, and the Credibility Gap
March 31, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Persistent structural domestic headwinds and geopolitical volatility make the Central Bank of Turkiye’s (CBRT) inflation targets increasingly unattainable, risking a further erosion of institutional credibility. While the CBRT has recently revised its 2026 midpoint target upward (now
Iran War: Invasion Risks
March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf. Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation. WTI oil prices would
EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?
March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB. Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring