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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

Structural Themes at the IMF Meeting

April 15, 2019 / Mike Gallagher, Kevin Harris, Pedro Tuesta

Four key structural themes emerged from our discussions at the IMF/World Bank meeting: The shape of the U.S./China trade deal; whether China will be able to sustain the shift toward better quality growth; how EMs can guard against the reversal of portfolio inflows; and the future of the Eurozone.

China: Strong March Performance Propels Q1 Growth

April 17, 2019 / Jeff Ng

A strong set of March performances pushed China's Q1 growth to 6.4% y/y, unchanged from Q4 2018.

Spain: A Slight, Surprising Lean to the Left

April 16, 2019 / Andrew Wroblewski, Gianluca Ziglio

Contrary to the thinking at the start of the campaign, Spain’s general election on April 28 may deliver a majority government, albeit based around a fragile, left-of-center coalition which needs the support of small, regional parties. If so, this would be a blow to what were thought to be rallying right-wing parties (Figure 1), especially the populist fringe. More notably, such a result would be the first majority administration since the 2011 election.

SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH