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As U.S. equities approach psychological resistance at 3000, portfolio managers will be looking to reduce exposure, which may prove beneficial for commodities.
The level and pace of increase in Chinese banks’ debt-to-GDP ratios are causing rising concerns about over-indebtedness leading to a 2007-08 style crisis for China’s banking and financial system in the coming years. China is fortunate, however, that the debt is between domestic creditors and debtors in yuan, with a large portion of major debtors state-owned and the financial system heavily influenced by the Chinese authorities.
CLZ8 is showing early signs of stabilization as oversold daily momentum studies unwind and the negative Tension Indicator flattens.
While consumer confidence continued to rise in October, we do not expect much change in the NFIB small business optimism index.