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February 03, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 3, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. November and December New Home Sales - Improvement in trend to continue
February 3, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
November and December new home sales data will be released on February 20. We expect moderate continuations of a recent improvement in trend, with November rising by 1.1% to 745k and December rising by 1.3% to 755k. This would be the highest level since February 2022.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. November and December Housing Starts and Permits - Moderately positive picture
February 3, 2026 3:52 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both November and December are due on February 18. For starts we expect a rise of 8.3% in November to 1350k to follow a decline of 4.6% in October, with a more moderate 1.5% increase to 1370k in December. For permits we expect moderate gains of 0.6% in November, t
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ISM Services - A partial correction from December's bounce
February 3, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.0 after a surprisingly strong December index of 54.4 that has since been revised down to 53.8 with the annual seasonal adjustment revisions. The data still contrasts a slower S and P services PMI of 52.5 in December. January’s S and P
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls
February 3, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall. Due to the gov
Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January
February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec
Europe Nuclear Weapons; NATO and Greenland
February 3, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Without the U.S. nuclear weapon umbrella, Europe’s nuclear deterrent is too weak. Secondly, European countries are highly reliant on U.S. missile defense, command, intelligence and reconnaissance, which military experts estimate could take 10 years to replace. Major European count
Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Peaks on Base Effects, Not Demand
February 3, 2026 6:52 AM UTC
The January inflation spike is more noise than signal, driven by base effects, not a demand surge. With core pressures steady and the rupiah in focus, BI remains on a measured path. Easing remains likely in H1.
India MPC Preview: Inflation Low, Rupee Lower: Why RBI May Keep Rates on Ice
February 3, 2026 6:36 AM UTC
The RBI is expected to hold rates at 5.25%, resisting pressure for further easing. With inflation near historic lows but the rupee under strain and private investment still muted, policy will focus on anchoring stability, managing liquidity, and allowing past cuts to percolate. Further accommodation
