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August 17, 2026
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 11, little change in the week
August 17, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
IMM data for w/e Aug 11 generally shows little change across counters, still very long $ overall
Yen shorts still smallest since Apr, and around 'normal' levels for recent years
Market remains extreme CAD short into trade deadline - binary event but squeeze risk evident
MXN longs inch back out amid the
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Aug 17-21
August 17, 2026 4:05 AM UTC
Canada trade deadline a wildcard, but skew has been favouring a short CAD squeeze
FOMC Minutes may give more insight to Fed debate
US yield retreat chips at $ longs, although also supports summer low vol risk (for now...)
Various/CHF still trend up...