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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH
Wikimedia: Sebastian Hoofs
The Fed and the Taylor Rule
December 12, 2018 / Kevin Harris
The FOMC uses policy rules as a guide, though it rejects rigid rule-based policy making. With that in mind, we plug economic estimates from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) into a standard Taylor Rule to see what guidance the Fed is getting.
Bank of Canada Follows Big Hawkish Step With Small Dovish One
December 05, 2018 / David Sloan
After taking a significant step in a hawkish direction in October, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has taken a moderate step back in December. This leaves a rate hike in January dependent on subsequent developments, particularly in global trade and oil. The BoC still sees rates moving to neutral, but the pace is uncertain.
Signal From the U.S. Treasury Curve? Pick Your End-Points
December 06, 2018 / Kevin Harris
Inversion at the front of the U.S. yield curve is not a reliable recession indicator. Tens aren't inverted against twos or bills, so no recession signal yet.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH
Implications of U.S. November Employment: Details Consitently Show Moderate Slowing
December 07, 2018 / David SloanNovember's non-farm payroll is consistent with an economy losing some momentum, but not necessarily by any more than the Fed expects.
FX Weekly Outlook & Strategy, December 10-14
December 07, 2018 / Paul BednarczykTrade wars still the biggest weight on sentiment as data takes a back seat. More central bank meetings with the SNB, ECB and Norges Bank all on hold.
Latest Research
Chart NOK/SEK Update: Downmove gaining momentum
8 minutes ago / Winston Tang
Chart USD/INR Update: Decline gaining momentum
20 minutes ago / Winston Tang
Malaysia Nov CPI 0.2% y/y (Prev: 0.6 Mkt: 0.4 4CAST: 0.5)
22 minutes ago / Charu Chanana
Philippines Flows: USD/PHP traded near 1-month high
1 hour ago / Jiaxin Lu
China Flows: Consolidation in USD/CNH persisted
1 hour ago / Jiaxin Lu
Chart GBP/JPY Update: Still eyeing the 141.18 support
1 hour ago / Winston Tang
Indonesia Chart JAKARTA Comp Update: Corrective pullback faltered at 6015 low
1 hour ago / Winston Tang
Indonesia Flows: Rupiah gains on oil price retreat, DNDF auctions
1 hour ago / Charu Chanana
Hong Kong Chart Hang Seng Index Update: Softer within broader consolidation
1 hour ago / Winston Tang
China Chart SHANGHAI Comp Update: Retains downside pressure
1 hour ago / Winston Tang
Chart AUD/NZD Update: Pressure turning down
2 hours ago / Winston Tang
Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidation with slight bias upside
2 hours ago / Winston Tang
Chart USD/CHF Update: Still in consolidation
2 hours ago / Winston Tang
Chart EUR/CHF Update: A touch firmer within consolidation
2 hours ago / Winston Tang
Malaysia Preview: due 19-Dec - November inflation likely to remain modest [Repeat]
2 hours ago / Charu Chanana