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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

Structural Themes at the IMF Meeting

April 15, 2019 / Mike Gallagher, Kevin Harris, Pedro Tuesta
Four key structural themes emerged from our discussions at the IMF/World Bank meeting: The shape of the U.S./China trade deal; whether China will be able to sustain the shift toward better quality growth; how EMs can guard against the reversal of portfolio inflows; and the future of the Eurozone.

China: Strong March Performance Propels Q1 Growth

April 17, 2019 / Jeff Ng
A strong set of March performances pushed China's Q1 growth to 6.4% y/y, unchanged from Q4 2018.

Spain: A Slight, Surprising Lean to the Left

April 16, 2019 / Andrew Wroblewski, Gianluca Ziglio
Contrary to the thinking at the start of the campaign, Spain’s general election on April 28 may deliver a majority government, albeit based around a fragile, left-of-center coalition which needs the support of small, regional parties. If so, this would be a blow to what were thought to be rallying right-wing parties (Figure 1), especially the populist fringe. More notably, such a result would be the first majority administration since the 2011 election.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

Preview: Due 26 Apr - US Advance (First Estimate) Q1 GDP

April 18, 2019 / David Sloan
Some stronger-than-expected recent data mean we now expect a 2.8% rise in Q1 US GDP.

US Chart DJIA Update: Wave 5 Still Trying to Find Its Upper Limit For a Top

April 18, 2019 / Rob Zukowski
The big negative divergence continues.

Argentina: March Inflation at 4.7% m/m, 54.7% y/y Surprised Even the Most Pesimistic Forecasts. Expect Negative Market Impact

April 16, 2019 / Priscila Robledo

March inflation numbers came in higher than expected. Expect negative market impact.

Aon's 2019 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps