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July 10, 2025
July 09, 2025
FOMC Minutes from June 18 - Doves in the minority
July 9, 2025 6:48 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from June 18 show agreement to leave policy at 4.25-4.50%, and general agreement that the FOMC was well positioned to wait for more clarity. While there was some debate over the future outlook, doves appear to be in the minority. A couple were open to easing at the next meeting in July,
South Africa Opposes Trump’s 30% Tariffs
July 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After a 90-day reprieve, U.S. president Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would implement 30% additional tariffs against South Africa-origin products from August 1. Despite President Ramaphosa opposed what he calls the unilateral trade tariffs by the U.S., and emphasized that Sout
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Returning to pre-pandemic pace
July 9, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic.
UK CPI Preview (Jul 16): Services Inflation to Fall Further?
July 9, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late. Indeed, the timing of Easter may have been a partial factor in the May CPI, where a distinct drop back in services and core rates failed to make the headline drop, which instead stayed at 3.4% in line with BoE thinking due to hig
Preview: Due July 25 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Correcting a strong May, not only in aircraft
July 9, 2025 1:16 PM UTC
We expect June durable goods orders to fall by 10.5% after a 16.4% surge in May, with the fall, like May’s rise, largely on aircraft. Ex transport orders have been showing much less volatility, but we expect a 0.2% decline in June to correct an above trend 0.5% increase in May.
UK: Risk Picture Rising and Broadening
July 9, 2025 12:35 PM UTC
The BoE’s latest message from its Financial Policy Committee notes that UK household and corporate borrowers remain resilient in aggregate while the UK banking system remains in a strong position even if economic, financial and business conditions became substantially worse than expected. But th