View:
March 19, 2026
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 19, 2026 5:00 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments
March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (
ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!
March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u
U.S. January New Home Sales - Weakness erases signs of improvement in trend
March 19, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
January new home sales have seen a sharp 17.6% decline to 587k, the weakest level since October 2022. Much of this weakness is probably due to weather, though other data from the housing sector suggests that signs of a pick-up in late 2025 have faded in early 2026.
BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?
March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war. The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt
March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet
Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time
March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC
Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict. However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric. In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some
SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF
March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC
· The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1). The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s