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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

U.S. and China Getting to a Temporary “Yes”

February 21, 2019 / Kevin Harris
The latest headlines from U.S./China trade talks show considerable progress from just a week ago, which is to be expected as the March 1 deadline approaches. There are also reports that the deadline is likely to be extended, also as expected. A new deadline will mean a new event risk for markets.

FOMC Minutes: The Rate Outlook

February 20, 2019 / Kevin Harris, David Sloan
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting show policy makers split between those who think rates should be held steady if inflation does not pick up and those who think that another hike (or hikes) would be appropriate this year if the economy performs as they expect.

China Trade: Positive for Current Account

February 14, 2019 / Jeff Ng
Amid the volatility, we see a few clear trends for China trade. One is that softer domestic demand is weakening import growth. Another is that exports to Asia and Europe remain resilient amid the uncertainty.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows: No Breakthrough, No Breakdown

February 20, 2019 / David Sloan
"Constructive" talks between UK's May and EU's Juncker seem to have delivered neither a breakthrough nor a breakdown, with the two agreeing to convene again.

Eurozone Chart CAC 40 Update: Reached Big Resistance

February 20, 2019 / Nicholas Rose
The CAC continues to edge fresh highs but is now running into key resistance.

South Africa: Jan CPI Inflation Slows to a 10-month Low of 4.0% y/y, Matching Our Lower-Than-Consensus Forecast

February 20, 2019 / Juri Kren
As we expected, South Africa's January CPI fell to 4.0% y/y.
Aon's 2018 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps