Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending January gains

March 26, 2026 4:50 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3800 has reached 1.3850, as rising intraday studies keep near-term sentiment positive

SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75% Due to Inflationary Risks

March 26, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on March 26 due to inflationary risks. We anticipate that a weakening rand, driven by higher oil prices and surging food costs to the war in Iran, will likely push inflation over 4% in Q2/Q3, and SA

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pressuring strong resistance - background improving

March 26, 2026 2:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated test of strong resistance at the 159.75 weekly high of 13 March

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?

March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data.  We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections.  But both it

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable

March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

March 26, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC

While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable.  It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Room to extend gains

March 26, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

Consolidating gains to the 1.6675 high as prices unwind stretched intraday and daily studies

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: The Iran War Shock

March 26, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact on Asia depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  
·       India GDP growth has been revised down slightly

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later

March 26, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Edged up from the 1.1935 low as prices consolidate losses from the 1.2150 high and unwind oversold intraday studies