LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

Mummy Merkel Bows to the Masses

November 14, 2018 / Lars Lundqvist
How successful Angela Merkel (familiarly called “Mummy” by the electorate) will be as Chancellor will depend on the stance of the new leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who will be elected in December. The risk is not only that the new leadership will clash with Merkel as the party tries to reconnect with its conservative roots, but also that it will lead to more frictions with their coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), ultimately leading to the collapse of the government. The relationship between the two is increasingly fraught as both parties try to defend themselves from the rise of the far-right populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD), and this will make policy making very difficult in the short to medium term.

Commodities to Benefit From Weakness in U.S. Equities

November 08, 2018 / Mike Macdonald

As U.S. equities approach psychological resistance at 3000, portfolio managers will be looking to reduce exposure, which may prove beneficial for commodities.

China Banking Rescues: Lessons from 1997-2005

November 08, 2018 / Mike Gallagher, Jeff Ng

The level and pace of increase in Chinese banks’ debt-to-GDP ratios are causing rising concerns about over-indebtedness leading to a 2007-08 style crisis for China’s banking and financial system in the coming years. China is fortunate, however, that the debt is between domestic creditors and debtors in yuan, with a large portion of major debtors state-owned and the financial system heavily influenced by the Chinese authorities.

SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Flows: GBP Woes Weigh on Wider Risk Appetite

November 15, 2018 / Paul Bednarczyk

It has been mainly about GBP this morning with resignations from the UK Government and expectations high that there will be more. But risk appetite starting to wane more generally and that's not good news for JPY shorts.

NYMEX October Crude Oil Update: Early Signs of Stabilization

November 12, 2018 / Mike Macdonald

CLZ8 is showing early signs of stabilization as oversold daily momentum studies unwind and the negative Tension Indicator flattens.

Preview: U.S. October NFIB Small Business Optimism (Due November 13)

November 12, 2018 / David Sloan

While consumer confidence continued to rise in October, we do not expect much change in the NFIB small business optimism index.

Aon's 2018 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps