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October 28, 2026
FOMC - Pause, but no clear dovish signals
October 28, 2026 7:41 PM UTC
The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0% as expected but still appears to be on track for a December tightening. The Fed stated accumulation of more information will help the Fed determine the appropriate stance to return inflation to the 2% target. We suspect a slowing economy and stabilizing inf
FOMC - Pause, but no clear dovish signals
October 28, 2026 7:40 PM UTC
The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0% as expected but still appears to be on track for a December tightening. The Fed stated accumulation of more information will help the Fed determine the appropriate stance to return inflation to the 2% target. We suspect a slowing economy and stabilizing inf
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 29
October 28, 2026 7:05 PM UTC
FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Fed holds, 10-2 vote, bullish on growth and Dec hike still seems on track
October 28, 2026 6:12 PM UTC
Limited reaction to expected pause, details still suggest Dec hike eyed, as priced
Market may be tempted to cover some fast money dollar longs intraday, but no great lasting impact
Focus shifts to presser then ECB
ECB Preview: October Hold but Markets to Focus on Response to Widening Spreads
October 28, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
The ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold this Thursday with financial markets instead focusing on the tone of the statement and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. In particular, analysts will be keen to hear whether September’s hawkish language has changed given France
ECB Preview: October Hold but Markets to Focus on Response to Widening Spreads
October 28, 2026 3:55 PM UTC
The ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold this Thursday with financial markets instead focusing on the tone of the statement and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. In particular, analysts will be keen to hear whether September’s hawkish language has changed given France
Bank of Canada - A cautious tightening cycle starts
October 28, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to tighten by 25bps to 2.50% was as expected by the markets with the risks of elevated oil prices the principal reason behind the move. Uncertainty means the BoC will be cautious going forward, but further rate hikes look likely, if not at consecutive meetings. We now
Bank of Canada - A cautious tightening cycle starts
October 28, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s decision to tighten by 25bps to 2.50% was as expected by the markets with the risks of elevated oil prices the principal reason behind the move. Uncertainty means the BoC will be cautious going forward, but further rate hikes look likely, if not at consecutive meetings. We now
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP - Stronger growth, slower inflation
October 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. We expect a 2.4% increase in core PCE prices, still above target but the slowest since a matching Q3 2024.
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
October 28, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 28, 2026 11:36 AM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso