View:
February 07, 2025
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
February 7, 2025 7:48 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.
Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than
Monetary Policy Reset: RBI’s Balancing Act Begins
February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC
The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan
Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Cold weather to lift utilities, depress manufacturing
February 7, 2025 4:49 PM UTC
We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.
U.S. February Michigan CSI - Consumers look concerned about tariffs
February 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
February’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 68.7 from 71.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July, with the dip appearing to come from a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations, to 4.3% from 3.3%, which is the highest since November 2023.
Canada January Employment - Rate cuts helping, but tariff risk persists
February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl
U.S. January Employment - Trend still strong despite a weather-restrained January
February 7, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather. A dip in the workweek is also probably weather-induced and may be behind an above trend 0.5% rise in earnings per hour. Unemployment slipped to 4.0% fro
Eurozone: The Neutral Rate – Probably Little Changed Recently Unlike Central Banks
February 7, 2025 1:14 PM UTC
A well-advertised research paper from the ECB suggests that the real neutral rate of interest for the EZ has not changed very much in the last few years but with a likely range of between -0.5% and +0.5%, but still well below estimates for what is so-called r* prior to the pandemic (Figure 1). The
FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 7th
February 7, 2025 9:38 AM UTC
Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 7th
February 7, 2025 4:32 AM UTC
Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
February 7, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback is performing strongly in the earlier sessions before NA. The only winner is KRW by 0.03%; the biggest losers are THB 0.59%, MYR & IDR 0.28%, KRW 0.22%, CNY 0.18%, SGD 0.16%, PHP 0.15%, INR 0.14% and CNH by 0.08%.
USD/C
February 06, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 7th
February 6, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term
Argentina: Lower Rates, Conditions to Lift the Controls
February 6, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
The Argentine Central Bank cut rates to 29%, citing improved inflation expectations. Rather than using a contractionary policy, it aims to curb monetary base growth through fiscal consolidation. Inflation is below 3%, with a 2% target feasible by mid-year. However, the 1% crawling peg risks eroding
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 7th
February 6, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term
Preview: Due February 7 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A slower month given bad weather
February 6, 2025 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch
Fixing The U.S. Trade Deficit
February 6, 2025 2:30 PM UTC
New U.S. trade deals will likely make slow progress in reducing bilateral trade deficits as the underlying drivers behind the U.S. trade deficit are macro forces. While the U.S. economy outperforms other major trading partners; the value of the USD remains overvalued and as long as tariffs are
BoE Review: Uncertain MPC Signals It Needs to be Careful
February 6, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
The latest set of BoE forecasts are notable for one major thing – an assumption that underlying growth has fallen, possible to under 1%. This does not explain all of the higher inflation profile (Figure 1) which now only delivers a below target outcome into 2028 – the higher rates projected th
U.S. Initial Claims correct higher but still low, Few scares in Q4 Productivity and Costs report
February 6, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k have corrected higher from last week’s 208k which was the lowest since February 2024 but remain consistent with a healthy labor market. Continued claims with a 36k rise to 1.886k have also corrected higher following a preceding 50k decline.