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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

China: Near-Term Damage to Dampen Future Momentum

June 19, 2019 / Jeff Ng

We have revised down our GDP growth forecasts for China for 2019 and 2020 based on near-term damage to the economy.

China: Rising Food Inflation Poses Risks

June 12, 2019 / Jeff Ng

Although we think that headline inflation remains manageable for now, rising food inflation is posing risks to China’s overall inflation outlook. If food inflation does not fade in the coming months, rising consumer costs from potential tariffs may threaten China’s inflation outlook and the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) stance.

A Crisis Averted, but Mexico’s Situation Has Not Improved

June 10, 2019 / Pedro Tuesta

The U.S and the Mexican governments reached an agreement to avoid the imposition of tariffs on Mexico’s exports. Although the worst-case scenario was avoided, for the time being, there is still a cost for Mexico.

SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

US Chart NASDAQ Comp Update: Staying Close to 8000 for Now

June 19, 2019 / Rob Zukowski

The NASDAQ is staying close enough to 8000 at this time to assume that the market can at least attempt another shot at extending the move above there toward the April high at 8176.

US FX Bond Flows: Quite a Few Look for 50 bps of Cuts This Year, Enough to Keep Market Satisfied

June 19, 2019 / Ben Levett

As the algorithms play "Fed bingo," key features of the headlines from Wednesday's FOMC meeting include the dropping of the term "patience" and the rolling out of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's line on "acting as appropriate to sustain economic expansion."

Preview: Due June 24 - Germany June Ifo Business Climate Survey

June 19, 2019 / Lars Lundqvist

We expect the German Ifo index to fall to 97 in June from 97.8 in May, which would be the weakest level since November 2014.

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Country Insights

Raw data and indicators collected and developed by the Continuum Research team.

The Country Insights™ model is our proprietary systematic country risk scoring model designed to provide insight into country strength & vulnerability.

It covers 174 countries and it’s a key component of our systematic research. It serves as a tool for clients to use directly and as an input into country and global thematic research.

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