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April 18, 2024

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Room for a minor test lower
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April 18, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

The pullback from just beneath resistance at 4.3500 is extending

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Further consolidation. Daily studies under pressure
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April 18, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test of resistance within 19.0000 - 19.1050

European Summary and Highlights 18 Apr
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April 18, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

The USD was slightly firmer through the European morning, gaining around 0.1% against the EUR and JPY but seeing little change against GBP and the commodity currencies. 

Psychology for major markets Apr 18
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April 18, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

USD correcting slightly lower but firm yields continue to provide underlying support

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower
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April 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.4700

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 18th
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 9:02 AM UTC

AUD still vulnerable on higher US yields
Australian employment report could trigger a test lower
JPY weakness and AUD weakness moving in tandem due to rising US yields
BoJ needs to act soon or risk losing credibility
EUR/USD likely to hold the range

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Central and Latin America: Country Risk Ratings
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April 18, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Central America countries including Brazil/Mexico/Peru/Argentina/Cuba and El Salvador.  

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
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April 18, 2024 8:13 AM UTC

The test of strong support at 0.9684/94 is giving way to further consolidation

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade around 0.9100

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Smart bounce - studies improving
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April 18, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

Cautious trade around support at 0.8525 has given way to a sharp bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in corrective trade
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April 18, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Consolidation above strong support at the 1.0610 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.0600 is giving way to the anticipated test higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above fresh 2024 low - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 1.2400

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending consolidation at the 192.00 level
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April 18, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Extending consolidation at the 192.00 level

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Bounce at the 99.00/98.60 support
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April 18, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Turning higher from test of the strong support at the 99.00/98.60 previous highs

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: USD softer as yields dip
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April 18, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD corrected lower with US yields overnight. Little news scheduled today but Fed speakers could drive trade. GBP softer after Bailey comments

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending pullback from the 7.2830 high
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April 18, 2024 5:37 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 7.2830 high and break of the 7.2500 congestion see room to extend losses to the 7.2340, February high

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating below 83.5475, all-time high
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

 Lower at the open as prices settled back from the 83.5475 all-time high

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 Apr
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 4:08 AM UTC

Kanda says Japan is in talks on FX and other issues with US & others and G7 reconfirmed commitment on forex stance put forward by Japan
Australian March unemployment rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 18th
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:05 AM UTC

AUD still vulnerable on higher US yields
Australian employment report could trigger a test lower
JPY weakness and AUD weakness moving in tandem due to rising US yields
BoJ needs to act soon or risk losing credibility
EUR/USD likely to hold the range

AUD/USD flows: Supported by positive sentiment
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian March unemployment rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected
But headline misses, so as participation rate

USD/JPY flows: Kanda getting serious
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April 18, 2024 3:52 AM UTC

Kanda says Japan is in talks on FX and other issues with US & others and G7 reconfirmed commitment on forex stance put forward by Japan
While BoJ's Noguchi says it is essential for BoJ to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Settling back from 16265, fresh year high
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April 18, 2024 3:32 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 16265 fresh year high as prices unwind overbought daily studies

Chart USD/THB Update: Further gains limited, scope for pullback
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April 18, 2024 2:56 AM UTC

Still pressuring the upside to see spike to fresh high at 36.90

Chart USD/KRW Update: Sharply lower to extend pullback from the 1400.00 high
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April 18, 2024 2:40 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend reversal from the 1400.00 high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending pullback from 1.3670 high
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April 18, 2024 2:12 AM UTC

Retracing all the gains from the Monday's low to pressure the 1.3600/1.3595 area

Chart GBP/USD Update: Scope to extend bounce from 1.2405 low
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April 18, 2024 1:59 AM UTC

Edged up from the 1.2405 low as prices consolidate the steep drop from the 1.2700 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Scope to extend bounce from 1.0600 low
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April 18, 2024 1:45 AM UTC

Saw sharp bounce at the 1.0600 level as prices consolidate steep drop from the 1.0885 high of last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade below 165.00/35 highs
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April 18, 2024 1:28 AM UTC

Clear break above the 164.00 level see scope for retest of the 165.00 level and 165.35, March YTD high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation below 154.79 high
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April 18, 2024 1:05 AM UTC

Settling back from the 154.79 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Poised for stronger gains from .5860 low
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April 18, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the .5860/50 support to regain the .5900 level as prices unwind the deep oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating, scope to extend bounce from .6390 low
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April 18, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Turned up from the .6390 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies 

April 17, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 18th
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP could benefit from higher than expected CPI…
…but we still see upside as very limited given current pricing of rate cuts
JPY in focus as weakness continues
AUD looks to have further downside risk

North American Summary and Highlights 17 Apr
Freemium Article

April 17, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD slipped with UST yields. A boost to the GBP from CPI data was undermined by dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey. 

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar tone to last report
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April 17, 2024 6:14 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book has a similar tone to that of March 6, if slightly stronger on activity, while seeing some easing of labor market tightness but little change in inflationary pressure.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Smart gains balanced beneath the 17.1200 Fibonacci retracement
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April 17, 2024 3:22 PM UTC

The smart bounce from the 9-year lows at 16.2600 is meeting selling interest just beneath strong resistance at the 17.1200 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at year highs - potential for a minor pullback
Freemium Article

April 17, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Little change, as late-December gains give way to consolidation

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
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April 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 18th
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 2:49 PM UTC

GBP could benefit from higher than expected CPI…
…but we still see upside as very limited given current pricing of rate cuts
JPY in focus as weakness continues
AUD looks to have further downside risk

JPY, AUD flows: JPY weakness reaching pain threshold
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

JPY weakness still being driven by declining risk premia, but some action needed from Japanese authorities soon if they are to avoid losing credibility.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of support at 0.6400/10
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

The anticipated continuation below strong support at congestion around 0.6400 and the 0.6410 Fibonacci retracement has not been seen

Preview: Due April 18 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Correcting a sharp February increase
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 1:52 PM UTC

We expect existing home sales to see a 3.0% March decline to 4.25m, correcting a 9.5% February increase that was similar to a sharp 11.3% rise in February 2023. The February 2023 surge was subsequently gradually reversed over several months, with March 2023 falling by 4.0%. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced at highs - studies highlight caution
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April 17, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 165.00

Preview: Due April 25 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, imports and deficit to increase
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April 17, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

We expect March’s advance goods trade deficit to rise to $91.2bn from $90.3bn, reaching an 11-month high. We expect exports and imports to both increase by 1.0%, though imports would then see the larger increase in USD terms.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Balanced at 34-year highs - bullish daily studies fading
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April 17, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

Little change in trade, as prices extend consolidation beneath the 154.79 current year high

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced at current year highs - studies turning down
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April 17, 2024 12:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at current year highs

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Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway.  However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers

Chart USD/RUB Update: Edging higher - critical resistance at 95.4750
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 11:31 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached initial resistance at the 94.5925 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Consolidating sharp gains - studies improving
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 11:16 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have met selling interest just beneath resistance at 4.3500