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October 08, 2024
U.S. Fiscal Policy Post-Election: Temporary Fiscal Stress Rather Than a Crisis
October 8, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
We remain concerned that temporary fiscal stress will be evident in H1 2025, as rating agencies worry over the deficit/debt and interest rate trajectory that is unlikely to improve under either president. This leaves an event risk of a ratings downgrade from one of the major agencies, given that t
Asia Summary and Highlights 8 October
October 8, 2024 4:58 AM UTC
Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August
Japan Overall Household spending +2.0% m/m
Japan economy minister Akazawa says drop in real wages is not good news
Chinese equities jumped almost 9% higher in the opening before retracing partial gains
October 07, 2024
Preview: Due October 8 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
October 7, 2024 3:43 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?
October 7, 2024 9:17 AM UTC
Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only one of
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, October 7th-11th
October 7, 2024 4:57 AM UTC
US CPI the main focus with the USD well supported
EUR could fall further as Friday rise in EUR yields unjustified
JPY remains under pressure with little chance of reversal of recent losses near term
Oil price will be watched for any impact from Middle East developments