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May 16, 2025
Moody's downgrades US debt as long-standing fiscal concerns mount
May 16, 2025 11:42 PM UTC
Moody’s downgraded US debt to AA1 from AAA after Friday’s close. The decision appears due to continued lack of action on the budget deficit rather that being triggered by any specific event, and brings Moody’s into line with S and P and Fitch. However the timing is awkward for markets, with th
Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
May 16, 2025 6:44 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% rise in April’s core PCE price index, even softer than a 0.2% core CPI, though risk of a boost from tariffs persists in the coming months. We expect modest 0.3% gains in personal income and spending, which would imply gains of 0.2% in real terms, still some way off a recessionary
U.S. May Preliminary Michigan CSI - Is the fall a sign that prices are now accelerating?
May 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
May’s Preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.8 is, despite the equity recovery, surprisingly weaker than April’s final of 52.2, though the 50.8 reading matches exactly the preliminary May outcome, though most responses were received before the US-China trade de-escalation. This could be a sign that afte
Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
May 16, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.
U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Single family slippage suggests trend starting to slip
May 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
April housing starts are in line with expectations, up 1.6% to 1361k, but permits are weaker than expected, down 4.7% to 1412k. With the starts rise fully due to the volatile multiples sector and the permits fall broad based this is a weaker than expected report.
Big EM’s: Cyclical Tariff Hit V Structural Drivers
May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC
China, India and Brazil are all seeing cyclical slowdown for varying reasons, with China likely to be hardest hit by adverse net exports due to Trump’s tariff wars. Though financial repression in China can allow further fiscal stimulus, the household sector and residential property investment are