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The latest headlines from U.S./China trade talks show considerable progress from just a week ago, which is to be expected as the March 1 deadline approaches. There are also reports that the deadline is likely to be extended, also as expected. A new deadline will mean a new event risk for markets.
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting show policy makers split between those who think rates should be held steady if inflation does not pick up and those who think that another hike (or hikes) would be appropriate this year if the economy performs as they expect.
Amid the volatility, we see a few clear trends for China trade. One is that softer domestic demand is weakening import growth. Another is that exports to Asia and Europe remain resilient amid the uncertainty.