LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

Wikimedia: Sebastian Hoofs

The Fed and the Taylor Rule

December 12, 2018 / Kevin Harris
The FOMC uses policy rules as a guide, though it rejects rigid rule-based policy making. With that in mind, we plug economic estimates from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) into a standard Taylor Rule to see what guidance the Fed is getting.

Bank of Canada Follows Big Hawkish Step With Small Dovish One

December 05, 2018 / David Sloan
After taking a significant step in a hawkish direction in October, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has taken a moderate step back in December. This leaves a rate hike in January dependent on subsequent developments, particularly in global trade and oil. The BoC still sees rates moving to neutral, but the pace is uncertain.

Signal From the U.S. Treasury Curve? Pick Your End-Points

December 06, 2018 / Kevin Harris
Inversion at the front of the U.S. yield curve is not a reliable recession indicator. Tens aren't inverted against twos or bills, so no recession signal yet.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

Implications of U.S. November Employment: Details Consitently Show Moderate Slowing

December 07, 2018 / David Sloan

November's non-farm payroll is consistent with an economy losing some momentum, but not necessarily by any more than the Fed expects.

FX Weekly Outlook & Strategy, December 10-14

December 07, 2018 / Paul Bednarczyk

Trade wars still the biggest weight on sentiment as data takes a back seat. More central bank meetings with the SNB, ECB and Norges Bank all on hold.

Chart GBP/USD Update 

December 07, 2018 / Nicholas Rose

Working into balance around 1.2750~.

Aon's 2018 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps