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December 12, 2024

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
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December 12, 2024 5:24 PM UTC

We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at year highs - studies improving
Freemium Article

December 12, 2024 5:02 PM UTC

Little change, as a tick lower in overbought daily stochastics keeps near-term sentiment cautious and extends consolidation beneath the 1.4200~ current year high

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 13th
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December 12, 2024 4:13 PM UTC

GBP may correct lower as GDP data flattens
Current GBP strength supported by yield spreads, but GBP overvalued longer term
EUR/USD likely to stay stuck close to 1.05
CHF weakness could extend against the JPY

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Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
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December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher - choppy trade to remain under pressure
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December 12, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a test above congestion resistance at 0.6400

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Gains to remain limited
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December 12, 2024 3:04 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade above congestion resistance at 160.00

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ECB Review: Clearly Flagging An End to Policy Restriction
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December 12, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

A fourth 25 bp discount rate cut at this latest Council meeting, to 3%, was also the third in a row. But this meeting was important for the (as we expected) change in forward guidance in which the ECB accepts that on-target inflation is likely to be durable enough so that it no longer has to pursue

Chart USD/JPY Update: Gains to remain limited
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December 12, 2024 2:53 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test of resistance at the 153.00 break level

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
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December 12, 2024 2:15 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 106.50

U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December
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December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC

Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e

Chart USD/RUB Update: Further tests higher to remain limited
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December 12, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

The test above 105.0000 has been pushed back from 108.7250

EUR flows: EUR little changed after ECB cuts 25bps as expected
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December 12, 2024 1:20 PM UTC

ECB cuts 25bps. Limited scope for ECB to impact EUR/USD near term. Press conference will be watched but Fed and Trump look more likely to trigger moves

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Limited tests higher
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December 12, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

Consolidation above critical support at the 4.2470 current year low of 15 July and congestion around 4.2500 is giving way to a test higher

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Prices remain under pressure
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December 12, 2024 11:43 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for lower
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December 12, 2024 11:17 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.4900 has reached 1.4820

Psychology for major markets December 12th
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December 12, 2024 11:08 AM UTC

USD remains firm. EUR awaits ECB

Europe Summary and Highlights 12 December
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December 12, 2024 11:08 AM UTC

Riskier currencies were generally a little lower through the European morning session.

Chartbook: Chart EUR/CHF: Fresh all-time low - monthly studies remain under pressure
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December 12, 2024 10:53 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh all-time low just beneath the 0.9210 low of August at 0.9202.

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BCB Review: Shock 100bps Hike
Freemium Article

December 12, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank raised the policy rate by 100bps to 12.25%, with plans for two more 100bps hikes, reaching 14.25% by early 2025—the highest in 18 years. The decision reflects fiscal concerns, inflation risks, and a 10% depreciation of the Real. The BCB aims to curb inflation and protect

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 12th
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December 12, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

ECB likely to cut 25bps, mild EUR upside risks
SNB cut 50bps, suggesting CHF to decline, but maybe only short term
AUD recovers on strong employment report 

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited scope above 0.9350
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December 12, 2024 9:22 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated gains in CHF-driven trade

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SNB Review: Easing Bias Toned Down?
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December 12, 2024 9:21 AM UTC

In what seems to be ever-clearer policy front-loading, the SNB cut its policy rate by 50 bp (to 0.5%), thereby accentuating an easing cycle that had delivered three 25 bp moves since March.  Possibly, this larger, but far from unexpected, reduction was driven by a fresh assessment that the inflatio

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited scope above 0.8875
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December 12, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break higher

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Fresh 2024 lows - strong support within 0.8196 - 0.8215
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December 12, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Quiet trade has drifted lower to post a fresh year low at 0.8223

Chartbook: Chart USD/CNH: Consolidating retest of 7.3100 current year high
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December 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

Rebound from the 6.9710 low has given way to strong rally to retrace all the losses from the Q3 and current year high at 7.3100

CHF flows: CHF falls on 50bp SNB cut, but downside limited
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December 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

CHF declines on 50bp SNB cut, but limits to the downside while concerns about Eurozone stability maintain wide intra-Eurozone spreads

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower
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December 12, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the test of congestion support at 1.0500

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further consolidation
Freemium Article

December 12, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Still little change, as neutral intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

AUD, JPY, CHF flows: AUD bounces on employment data, JPY weak, but...
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December 12, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

AUD bounces strongly on better thna expected employment report. JPY weak as yields dip after reports of less hawkish BoJ. CHF awaits SNB decision

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending gains from 1.0935 Fibonacci support
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December 12, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Break above the 1.1000 level see prices extending gains from the 1.0935 Fibonacci level

AUD flows: New AUD/USD lows for the year, but...
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December 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

New lows for the year for AUD/USD overnight but current weakness looks overdone.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending rejection from 1.6575 high
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December 12, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.6600 level has given way to fresh selling pressure following rejection from the 1.6575 high

Chart USD/CNH Update: Limited pullback, support at 7.2500/7.2250 area
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December 12, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 7.2500 level as prices consolidate losses from the 7.3150 high

Chart USD/INR Update: Still extending gains
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December 12, 2024 4:50 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and further gains has reach fresh record high at 84.8800 level

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 December
Freemium Article

December 12, 2024 4:14 AM UTC

Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% vs. 4.2% expected

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 12th
Paying Article

December 12, 2024 4:10 AM UTC

ECB likely to cut 25bps, mild EUR upside risks
SNB favoured to cut 50bps, suggesting CHF to decline, but maybe only short term
AUD recover on strong employment report 

USD/JPY flows: Rally Pasues
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December 12, 2024 3:40 AM UTC

USD/JPY paused the recent rally on Thursday

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Poised for retest of 15952/15969 highs
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December 12, 2024 3:28 AM UTC

Turned higher from the 15840 support as prices unwind the oversold daily studies to approach the 15952/15969 highs

Chart USD/THB Update: Bounce at 33.65 support, room for lower later
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December 12, 2024 2:58 AM UTC

Little change, as prices consolidate at the 33.65, 50% Fibonacci retracement 

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating below 1438.00 high
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December 12, 2024 2:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices settled back from the 1438.00 high to consolidate strong run-up from the 1388.00 support

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in choppy trade from 1.3362 support
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December 12, 2024 2:20 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade from mid-November

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consoldating below 1.2800, room for higher later
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December 12, 2024 1:57 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.2800 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating at the 1.0500 level
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December 12, 2024 1:47 AM UTC

Little change, as prices consolidate test of the 1.0500 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating below the 160.00 level, scope for pullback
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December 12, 2024 1:35 AM UTC

 No follow-through on break of the 160.00 resistance and consolidation here see risk for pullback with daily studies now stretched

AUD/USD flows: Another solid jobs report
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December 12, 2024 1:32 AM UTC

Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% vs. 4.2% expected

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend corrective bounce, room to 153.00/28 area
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December 12, 2024 12:57 AM UTC

Further extending gains from the low of last week with break above the 152.00 level opening up stronger bounce to the 153.00/28

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating break to fresh year low at .5760
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December 12, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Losses to break support at the .5800/.5775, November and 2023 year low, has seen prices reaching fresh year low at .5760

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating break to fresh low
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December 12, 2024 12:26 AM UTC

Further extend losses through the .6348 low to reach fresh year low at .6336 before turning up in consolidation

December 11, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 12th
Paying Article

December 11, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

ECB likely to cut 25bps, mild EUR upside risks
SNB favoured to cut 50bps, suggesting CHF to decline, but maybe only short term
AUD has potential to recover if employment report shows strength

North American Summary and Highlights 11 December
Freemium Article

December 11, 2024 8:35 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced in Europe led by USD/JPY on a BoJ report and reversed a dip on an as expected US CPI. USD/CAD slipped after the BoC eased by 50bps but suggested more cautious moves going forward.