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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

Spain: A Slight, Surprising Lean to the Left

April 16, 2019 / Andrew Wroblewski, Gianluca Ziglio
Contrary to the thinking at the start of the campaign, Spain’s general election on April 28 may deliver a majority government, albeit based around a fragile, left-of-center coalition which needs the support of small, regional parties. If so, this would be a blow to what were thought to be rallying right-wing parties (Figure 1), especially the populist fringe. More notably, such a result would be the first majority administration since the 2011 election.

U.S.: March Job Gain Makes Fed Ease Unlikely

April 05, 2019 / Kevin Harris, David Sloan
Payroll employment rose by 196,000 in March, slightly above the 180,000 three-month average and the 174,000 average for the entire expansion. There looks to be a modest slowing in the pace of hiring from last year, but not one that threatens household demand growth or the Fed outlook. Average hourly earnings growth appears to have plateaued for now.

No Bank of Canada Tightening Until 2020

April 05, 2019 / David Sloan
While the Canadian economy seems likely to meet downgraded Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations in Q1 and going forward, recent comments from Governor Stephen Poloz suggest a further downgrading of a previous tightening bias.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

Preview: Due 26 Apr - US Advance (First Estimate) Q1 GDP

April 18, 2019 / David Sloan
Some stronger-than-expected recent data mean we now expect a 2.8% rise in Q1 US GDP.

US Chart DJIA Update: Wave 5 Still Trying to Find Its Upper Limit For a Top

April 18, 2019 / Rob Zukowski
The big negative divergence continues.

Argentina: March Inflation at 4.7% m/m, 54.7% y/y Surprised Even the Most Pesimistic Forecasts. Expect Negative Market Impact

April 16, 2019 / Priscila Robledo

March inflation numbers came in higher than expected. Expect negative market impact.

Aon's 2019 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps