View:

July 12, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 12 July
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer after mixed US PPI data, particularly versus the JPY. 

FX Weekly Strategy: July 15th-19th
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

JPY the main focus after sharp gains Thursday and Friday
Key levels approaching with talk of intervention
EUR risks may be on the downside on ECB meeting
GBP strength could be challenged by UK data

...
Banxico Minutes: More Slack Could Give Room for Rate Cuts
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Banxico kept the policy rate unchanged at 11.0% but showed a slightly dovish tone, hinting at possible cuts in August. June's CPI figures revealed a widening gap between core and non-core inflation. Despite recent economic slowdowns and the MXN Peso's depreciation, Banxico expects economic slack to

JPY flows: JPY bids continue with BoJ suspected
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 2:39 PM UTC

JPY remains well bid, with talk of some official intervention, though no confirmation. Some support likely above 157 initially.

U.S. July Michigan CSI - Lower, as are inflation expectations
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

July’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a modest fall to 66.0 from 68.2, the lowest monthly reading since November 2023 though above the preliminary June reading of 65.6. Inflation expectations also fell, to 2.9% from 3.0% on both a 1-year and 5-10 year view.

...
Turkiye’s Current Account Deficit: Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Succour
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficit (CAD) stood at $25.2 billion as of May 2024, marking its lowest level since June 2022, down from $31.7 billion a month earlier driven by strong services income and improving foreign trade balance, supported by accelerated capital inflows. W

USD flows: Still soft despite strong PPI
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

PPI came in stronger thna expected, but the market mood is still dominated by yesterday's CPI

U.S. June PPI - Not convincingly subdued
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

June PPI provided mixed data, with a moderate 0.2% rise overall, a strong 0.4% increase ex food and energy but a weak unchanged outcome ex food, energy and trade. Upward revisions to May, overall to unchanged from -0.2%, ex food and energy to a 0.3% increase from unchanged and ex food, energy and tr

Psychology for major markets July 12th
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 10:13 AM UTC

USD on the back foot after weak US CPI

...
Latin America: Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for select Latin America countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. 

European Summary and Highlights 12 July
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 10:04 AM UTC

The USD was generally a little weaker against the riskier currencies through the European morning, with GBP the best performer.

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. June CPI Very soft
USD/JPY Swings
More Upside Surprises on UK GDP
RBNZ Signals easing soon
Weak CPI and M2 Trends in China

...
EZ and UK Government Bonds: Decoupling From the U.S.?
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 9:37 AM UTC

Different economic and inflation dynamics, plus no constraint from trade weighted exchange rates, means that the ECB and BOE can cut irrespective of the Fed in the coming quarters.  This can see 2yr yields decline, though less so in Germany where a 2.5% ECB depo rate is already discounted.  10yr y

...
ECB Preview (Jul 18): Policy to Pause Amid Mixed Data
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 9:36 AM UTC

ECB thinking comes backs onto the radar screen next Thursday.  Given the hints from Council members, all policy rates will be held this time around. But markets will be more focused on hints on the speed and timing of further moves, not least after what was one formal dissent last time, and amid wi

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 12th
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 9:13 AM UTC

US PPI watched in follow up to CPI
JPY has the most potential for volatility
SEK modestly weaker after soft CPI

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Poised for retest of .9755 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

Poised for retest of the .9755 high

Chart USD/CHF Update: Leaning lower from the .9000 resistance
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

Lower high at the .9000 congestion weighs and see room to extend the rejection from the .9050 high 

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Bounce at 204.00 consolidating reversal from 208.10 high
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Deep overbought daily studies finally gave way to selling pressure at the 208.10 high

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Turned up in consolidation from 106.75 low, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

Break of the 107.00 level has seen losses to reach the 106.75 low

SEK flows: Initially resilient to weak CPI
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Swedish CPI is weaker than expected, mirroring weak Norwegian CPI earlier in the week, but the SEK has barely fallen. SEK downside risks seen, but patience may be required

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating at 7.2600 support, room for lower
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 5:43 AM UTC

Break of the 7.2830/7.2760 support further extend losses from the 7.3110 high

Chart USD/INR Update: Extend consolidation below 83.5750 resistance
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 5:31 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the 83.5750 resistance to leave resistance at the 83.6150 and 83.6725 high out of reach

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 July
Freemium Article

July 12, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

USD/JPY slumps in the early Asia hours

AUD/USD flows: Mixed sentiment
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

Risk sentiment is mixed 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 12th
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 4:49 AM UTC

US PPI watched in follow up to CPI
JPY has the most potential for volatility
SEK at risk on CPI

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending losses
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 3:32 AM UTC

Extending losses and break of the 16200/16190 support see room to the 16100 congestion

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating at 36.05 low, lower will see scope to retest 35.85
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 3:18 AM UTC

Break of the 36.40/36.32 support further extend losses to reach 36.05 low

USD/JPY flows: Suspected Intervention and Rate Check
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 3:14 AM UTC

USD/JPY slumps in the early Asia hours

Chart USD/KRW Update: Bounce at the 1370.00 support, lower later
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 2:52 AM UTC

Break of the 1380.00 level has seen follow-through to break the 1375.00 support to reach the 1370.00 congestion

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3420/15 support
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 2:39 AM UTC

Break of the 1.3477 support has seen dive to retest support at the 1.3420/15, May low and 50% Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating break to fresh high at 1.2950
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 2:13 AM UTC

Sharp break of the March and June highs at 1.2860 and 1.2894 has seen rally to fresh high at 1.2950

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of the 1.0900 level
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:49 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.0850 congestion has given way to break to extend the June gains to tag the 1.0900 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating losses to 171.60 support
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:24 AM UTC

Turned up from the 171.60 support to consolidate the sharp rejection from the 175.43 high as prices unwind the stretched intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating above 158.00, lower later
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:01 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 161.95 gave way to sharp pullback through the 160.00 level and the strong support at the 158.00/157.70 area

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating above .6065 low
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

Little change, after bounce attempt above the .6100 level met with selling pressure below the .6150 congestion

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating spike to .6800 level
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Break above the .6750/61 highs saw spike to the .6800 level before settling back in consolidation

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback slumped on weaker than expected U.S. CPI. KRW saw the largest gains of 0.85%, followed by SGD 0.45%, THB 0.36%, CNH 0.34%, IDR 0.28%, MYR 0.26%, CNY and TWD 0.25%, PHP and HKD 0.05%.
USD/CNH is trading lower at 7.2677

July 11, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 12th
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

US PPI watched in follow up to CPI
JPY has the most potential for volatility
SEK at risk on CPI

North American Summary and Highlights 11 July
Freemium Article

July 11, 2024 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - The USD, USD/JPY in particular, fell sharply on a lower than expected CPI though ended off its lows.  

U.S. Fed's Daly and Musalem welcome CPI
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 5:30 PM UTC

Fed's Musalem and Daly have welcomed the CPI data, without giving any signal for a near-term easing.

...
U.S. Republican National Convention Approaching
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 4:51 PM UTC

US political focus may currently be on whether President Joe Biden will remain in the contest for president, though the Republican National Convention which runs from August 15 through August 18 is rapidly approaching. This will give useful insight on what a second term for former president Donald T

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 12th
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

US PPI watched in follow up to CPI
JPY has the most potential for volatility
SEK at risk on CPI

Chart GBP/USD Update: Fresh year high - studies improving
Freemium Article

July 11, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have extended to a fresh 2024 year high at 1.2950

Preview: Due July 12 - U.S. June PPI - Subdued, if not as weak as in May
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 1:32 PM UTC

We expect a subdued June PPI, unchanged overall with a 0.2% increase in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. However the data will be not quite as soft as seen in May, which corrected from a stronger April. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Sharp pullback from multi-year highs in JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

Cautious trade at 2024 year highs just beneath the 175.70 high of February 1991 has given way to a sharp JPY-driven pullback

...
U.S. June CPI - Very soft, even if a few components look erratic
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

June CPI is even weaker than expected, down by 0.1% overall and up by only 0.1% ex food and energy, with the core increase before rounding only 0.065%, a sign that inflationary pressures have faded significantly since the bounce at the start of the year. Initial claims at 222k from 239k suggest the

USD flows: Weaker on CPI, more downside seen
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Weaker US CPI puts the USD at risk across the board. JPY has the most upside potential longer term, but AUD and GBP may be the best short term performers.