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September 06, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 6 September
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - US employment data was weaker than expected but probably not sufficiently so to see the Fed easing by 50bs in September. USD/JPY ended weaker but the USD advanced against the riskier currencies. 

Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slippage to resume
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 6:26 PM UTC

We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023. 

Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to slip
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 5:33 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos to correct from weak July
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 4:42 PM UTC

We expect August industrial production to rise by 0.5% after a 0.6% June decline, while manufacturing increases by 0.4% after a 0.3% July decline. Autos are likely to lead the rise after leading the July decline. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sharp bounce in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 3:59 PM UTC

The test below 1.3500 has bounced smartly from 1.3465 in CAD-driven trad

U.S. Fed's Waller - Balance of risk has shifted to employment side
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 3:24 PM UTC

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

The test of resistance at 0.6760 has met anticipated selling interest

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Sharp bounce, but studies continue to point lower
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 159.00 has bounced smartly from congestion support at 158.00

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 9th-13th
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

U.S. August CPI Subdued 
PPI In line with the underlying trend
More Mixed Messages for UK GDP 
Japan GDP Unlikely to Change BoJ's Mind

U.S. Fed's Williams - Wants to look at jobs data more closely
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sharp bounce in choppy trade - daily and weekly studies continue to point lower
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:42 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 142.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Bouncing from 100.51/62 - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

The anticipated test of critical support within the 100.51 current year low of 27 August and the 100.62 monthly low of 28 December 2023 has given way to a sharp bounce

U.S. August Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

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U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower

USD flows: Data adds to 25bps v 50bps from Fed and Hurt USD
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

USD pushing lower post NFP.  

Chart USD/TRY Update: Consolidating gains - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 11:55 AM UTC

The pullback from the 34.3900 current year high of 28 August is giving way to consolidation above the 33.7820 low of 2 September

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending choppy trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 11:22 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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Eurozone: Sobering Services and Domestic Demand News is Food for ECB Doves
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 10:53 AM UTC

The fact that EZ growth was revised down a notch to 0.2% in Q2 is of little importance – it partly reflects a small recovery in imports that we have been flagging for some time would be a likely break on recorded activity.  Over and beyond more signs of slowing wage pressures in Q2 data, more not

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Focus turning to the 17.5930 current year low
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 10:36 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 17.7700 is giving way to minor consolidation around 17.6700

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Further gains to prove difficult to sustain
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 10:06 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.5000 has met selling interest beneath 1.5040

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. August  Non-Farm Payrolls Less weak than July
U.S. ADP Employment Losing momentum
And U.S. ISM Data
Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada
USD/JPY Begins its Trip to the South 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, September 6
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

All Eyes Will be on U.S. NFP
And determine USD/JPY's Next Leg
Also including all JPY pairs

Psychology for major markets September 6th
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 9:55 AM UTC

USD steadies ahead of key U.S. data, but JPY tone still positive. 

Europe Summary and Highlights 6 September
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

JPY paused in Europe after further good gains in Asia.

USD/JPY flows: Looking to test 142 post NFP
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 8:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY pausing in Europe 

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart USD/CHF Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Steady selling interest is meeting short-covering just above strong support at 0.8400

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 8:08 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/USD Update: Potential for a test of 1.1150
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 1.1100 is giving way to consolidation above here

Chart EUR/SEK Update: Higher in consolidation from 11.3000 low, but upside still limited
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

Steadied at the 11.3000 low as prices consolidate losses from the 11.7700, July high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3150 has given way to a drift higher

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Extending gains from 11.6050, August low
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 7:24 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation below the 11.8000 level but pressure remains on the upside

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Pressuring the 1.6530/80 resistance
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside as prices extend gains from the 1.6255 low to reach the 1.6530/80 resistance

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending pullback from 193.50 corrective high
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 188.20/00 support see room for deeper pullback 

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside as prices extend break through the 96.00 level to approach the 95.50 congestion

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 September
Freemium Article

September 6, 2024 5:28 AM UTC

Japan July household spending +0.1% y/y 
Risk sentiment soft so far on Friday's Asia session

Chart USD/INR Update: Lower in consolidation from 83.9850 high
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 5:10 AM UTC

Turned lower in consolidation from the 83.9850 all-time high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

USD/JPY flows: Continue to move lower before NFP
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 5:04 AM UTC

USD/JPY continue to move lower before NFP

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, September 6
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

All Eyes Will be on U.S. NFP
And determine USD/JPY's Next Leg
Also including all JPY pairs

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment sour
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 4:07 AM UTC

Risk sentiment soft so far on Friday's Asia session

Chart USD/CNH Update: Under pressure, 7.0840/7.0710 lows at risk
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 3:28 AM UTC

Break of the 7.1000 level extend the pullback from the 7.1310 bounce high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Under pressure, 15360/15300 support in focus
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 3:18 AM UTC

Extending rejection from the 15555/15600 resistance and break of the 15400 level see pressure extending to the 15360/15300 support

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure, 33.50 support within reach
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 3:02 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend break of the 33.75 support to approach the 33.50, May 2023 low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending rejection from the 1340.00/1343.00 resistance
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Leaning lower following rejection from the 1340.00/1343.00 resistance

Chart USD/SGD Update: Under pressure, weighing on the 1.3000 level
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Down to pressure the 1.3000 level following rejection from the 1.3100 bounce high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Higher in consolidation from the 1.3100 level
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 2:04 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from test of the 1.3100 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:52 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.1026 low to regain the 1.1100 level return focus to the upside

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but room for further losses
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 158.55 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies but pressure remains firmly on the downside

Chart USD/JPY Update: Under pressure, focus on 141.69 low
Paying Article

September 6, 2024 1:04 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 143.00 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies but pressure remains firmly on the downside