FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, July 14th-18th

July 13, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

US CPI could see some impact from US tariffs
Higher CPI could see the USD gain against the EUR but JPY might outperform
GBP vulnerable to any weakness in labour market or CPI data
Market still focused on tariffs but FX impact unclear

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, July 14th-18th

July 13, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

US CPI could see some impact from US tariffs
Higher CPI could see the USD gain against the EUR but JPY might outperform
GBP vulnerable to any weakness in labour market or CPI data
Market still focused on tariffs but FX impact unclear

North American Summary and Highlights 11 Jul

July 11, 2025 7:59 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly little changed, awaiting fresh tariff developments, though USD/JPY rose with UST yields. Weak GDP data weighed on the GBP but a strong rise in employment gave the CAD some support. 

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Latest tariff threats could delay rate cuts

July 11, 2025 7:16 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee may want to assess the impact of any August escalation in tariffs before being willing to ease.

U.S. Budget records a rare surplus in June

July 11, 2025 6:26 PM UTC

June saw a budget surplus of $27.0bn, contrasting a deficit of $71.0bn in June 2024, and the first surplus in June since 2016.  Receipts were up 12.9% yr/yr while outlays fell by 7.0%.

Preview: Due July 31 - Canada May GDP - Another decline, but June may see a bounce

July 11, 2025 5:03 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a second straight 0.1% decline in May, consistent with the preliminary estimate made with April’s report. However strong June employment growth hints that June’s preliminary estimate could be positive, we expect by 0.1%. This would leave Q2 GDP flat to marginally ne

Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Tariff risks to restrain composite and lift prices

July 11, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating gains - studies improving

July 11, 2025 3:51 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have extended to reach congestion resistance at 5.6000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending pressure on 1.3700 - potential for a test higher

July 11, 2025 3:38 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Weekly Strategy: July 14th-18th

July 11, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

US CPI could see some impact from US tariffs
Higher CPI could see the USD gain against the EUR but JPY might outperform
GBP vulnerable to any weakness in labour market or CPI data
Market still focused on tariffs but FX impact unclear

Chart AUD/USD Update: Back at year highs - studies rising

July 11, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.6600

CAD, EUR flows: CAD benefits from better employment data

July 11, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

GBP weakens as May shows another drop in GDP. Trend is weakening although latest 3m/3m number is flattered by upward revision to March

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Back within reach of year highs

July 11, 2025 1:29 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a fresh test higher

Chart USD/JPY Update: Studies turning higher once again

July 11, 2025 1:13 PM UTC

The anticipated test below support at 146.00 has not been seen