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April 18, 2024

U.S. Fed's Bostic - No need to ease if labor market stays strong
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:21 PM UTC

Chart USD/BRL Update: Balanced at fresh 2024 year highs - studies remain positive
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April 18, 2024 4:11 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached fresh 12-month highs around 5.2900

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March New Home Sales - Stable through Q1, downside risk in Q2
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

We expect a March new home sales total of 665k, almost unchanged from both February’s 662k and January’s 664k. Looking into Q2, some slowing is to be expected.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 3:52 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below 1.3800 to reach 1.3760, where oversold intraday studies are prompting short-term reactions

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise, Services to slip
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April 18, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show a pick-up in manufacturing to 53.0 from 51.9, reaching its highest since May 2022, but a third straight slowing in services to 51.0 from 51.7. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 18th
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April 18, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

JPY may get some support from Japanese CPI
Underlying weak JPY trend only likely to turn with lower US yields
GBP downside risks on retail sales
EUR/NOK due to turn lower

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade above support at 0.6400/10
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.6443 monthly low of 13 February is giving way to consolidation

U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Corrects strong February rise, further slippage likely
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April 18, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

March existing home sales with a 4.3% decline corrected a sharp 9.5% February increase. 2023 also saw a sharp February increase that was gradually reversed and more during the rest of the year. As rate cut hopes fade, existing home sales look set to slip further.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating at highs - studies coming under pressure
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April 18, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 165.00

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China and the South China Sea
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April 18, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

 Bottom Line: A China coastguard vessel blocked two Philippines government vessels over the weekend in the Second Thomas shoal area near the Philippines, which has raised questions over whether the South China Sea will be another geopolitical flashpoint.  We would say not in 2024, both given China

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further consolidation at 34-year highs - bullish daily studies fading
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

Still little change in trade

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Brazil: Revision of Targets Shows the Weakness of the New Fiscal Framework
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April 18, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

The Brazilian government has revised its budget targets for 2025 and 2026, lowering the deficit to 0% and a 0.25% surplus in 2025 and 2026 respectively, from 0.5% surplus in 2025 and 1% in 2026. However, reliance on revenue increases poses challenges amid resistance from Congress. Despite reduced ta

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure - room for lower
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April 18, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 106.00 has reached 105.75~

USD flows: USD well supported after Philly Fed strength
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April 18, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

USD marginally higher after Philly Fed, with highest manufacturing index for 2 years

U.S. Initial Claims stay low and stable, Philly Fed picks up in April
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April 18, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

Initial claims are unchanged at 212k, still suggesting a tight labor market in the April non-farm payroll survey week. April’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey at 15.5 from 3.2 is the highest since April 2022 and does follow recent signs of improvement in the ISM and S and P national manufacturing

Chart USD/RUB Update: Balanced at highs - critical resistance at 95.4750
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 11:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance at the 94.5925 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Room for a minor test lower
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April 18, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

The pullback from just beneath resistance at 4.3500 is extending

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Further consolidation. Daily studies under pressure
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April 18, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test of resistance within 19.0000 - 19.1050

European Summary and Highlights 18 Apr
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April 18, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

The USD was slightly firmer through the European morning, gaining around 0.1% against the EUR and JPY but seeing little change against GBP and the commodity currencies. 

Psychology for major markets Apr 18
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April 18, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

USD correcting slightly lower but firm yields continue to provide underlying support

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - potential for a minor test lower
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April 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.4700

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 18th
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 9:02 AM UTC

AUD still vulnerable on higher US yields
Australian employment report could trigger a test lower
JPY weakness and AUD weakness moving in tandem due to rising US yields
BoJ needs to act soon or risk losing credibility
EUR/USD likely to hold the range

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Central and Latin America: Country Risk Ratings
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April 18, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Central America countries including Brazil/Mexico/Peru/Argentina/Cuba and El Salvador.  

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 8:13 AM UTC

The test of strong support at 0.9684/94 is giving way to further consolidation

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade around 0.9100

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Smart bounce - studies improving
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

Cautious trade around support at 0.8525 has given way to a sharp bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in corrective trade
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Consolidation above strong support at the 1.0610 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.0600 is giving way to the anticipated test higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above fresh 2024 low - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 1.2400

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending consolidation at the 192.00 level
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Extending consolidation at the 192.00 level

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Bounce at the 99.00/98.60 support
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Turning higher from test of the strong support at the 99.00/98.60 previous highs

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: USD softer as yields dip
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD corrected lower with US yields overnight. Little news scheduled today but Fed speakers could drive trade. GBP softer after Bailey comments

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending pullback from the 7.2830 high
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 5:37 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 7.2830 high and break of the 7.2500 congestion see room to extend losses to the 7.2340, February high

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating below 83.5475, all-time high
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

 Lower at the open as prices settled back from the 83.5475 all-time high

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 Apr
Freemium Article

April 18, 2024 4:08 AM UTC

Kanda says Japan is in talks on FX and other issues with US & others and G7 reconfirmed commitment on forex stance put forward by Japan
Australian March unemployment rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 18th
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:05 AM UTC

AUD still vulnerable on higher US yields
Australian employment report could trigger a test lower
JPY weakness and AUD weakness moving in tandem due to rising US yields
BoJ needs to act soon or risk losing credibility
EUR/USD likely to hold the range

AUD/USD flows: Supported by positive sentiment
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian March unemployment rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected
But headline misses, so as participation rate

USD/JPY flows: Kanda getting serious
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 3:52 AM UTC

Kanda says Japan is in talks on FX and other issues with US & others and G7 reconfirmed commitment on forex stance put forward by Japan
While BoJ's Noguchi says it is essential for BoJ to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Settling back from 16265, fresh year high
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April 18, 2024 3:32 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 16265 fresh year high as prices unwind overbought daily studies

Chart USD/THB Update: Further gains limited, scope for pullback
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April 18, 2024 2:56 AM UTC

Still pressuring the upside to see spike to fresh high at 36.90

Chart USD/KRW Update: Sharply lower to extend pullback from the 1400.00 high
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 2:40 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend reversal from the 1400.00 high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending pullback from 1.3670 high
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April 18, 2024 2:12 AM UTC

Retracing all the gains from the Monday's low to pressure the 1.3600/1.3595 area

Chart GBP/USD Update: Scope to extend bounce from 1.2405 low
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 1:59 AM UTC

Edged up from the 1.2405 low as prices consolidate the steep drop from the 1.2700 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Scope to extend bounce from 1.0600 low
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 1:45 AM UTC

Saw sharp bounce at the 1.0600 level as prices consolidate steep drop from the 1.0885 high of last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade below 165.00/35 highs
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 1:28 AM UTC

Clear break above the 164.00 level see scope for retest of the 165.00 level and 165.35, March YTD high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation below 154.79 high
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April 18, 2024 1:05 AM UTC

Settling back from the 154.79 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Poised for stronger gains from .5860 low
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the .5860/50 support to regain the .5900 level as prices unwind the deep oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating, scope to extend bounce from .6390 low
Paying Article

April 18, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Turned up from the .6390 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies 

April 17, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 18th
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP could benefit from higher than expected CPI…
…but we still see upside as very limited given current pricing of rate cuts
JPY in focus as weakness continues
AUD looks to have further downside risk

North American Summary and Highlights 17 Apr
Freemium Article

April 17, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD slipped with UST yields. A boost to the GBP from CPI data was undermined by dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey. 

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar tone to last report
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 6:14 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book has a similar tone to that of March 6, if slightly stronger on activity, while seeing some easing of labor market tightness but little change in inflationary pressure.