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LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH
Wikimedia: Sebastian Hoofs
The Fed and the Taylor Rule
December 12, 2018 / Kevin Harris
The FOMC uses policy rules as a guide, though it rejects rigid rule-based policy making. With that in mind, we plug economic estimates from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) into a standard Taylor Rule to see what guidance the Fed is getting.
Bank of Canada Follows Big Hawkish Step With Small Dovish One
December 05, 2018 / David Sloan
After taking a significant step in a hawkish direction in October, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has taken a moderate step back in December. This leaves a rate hike in January dependent on subsequent developments, particularly in global trade and oil. The BoC still sees rates moving to neutral, but the pace is uncertain.
Signal From the U.S. Treasury Curve? Pick Your End-Points
December 06, 2018 / Kevin Harris
Inversion at the front of the U.S. yield curve is not a reliable recession indicator. Tens aren't inverted against twos or bills, so no recession signal yet.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH
Implications of U.S. November Employment: Details Consitently Show Moderate Slowing
December 07, 2018 / David SloanNovember's non-farm payroll is consistent with an economy losing some momentum, but not necessarily by any more than the Fed expects.
FX Weekly Outlook & Strategy, December 10-14
December 07, 2018 / Paul BednarczykTrade wars still the biggest weight on sentiment as data takes a back seat. More central bank meetings with the SNB, ECB and Norges Bank all on hold.
Latest Research
Monthly View: Chart NOK/SEK Update: Dec range capped at 1.07- still weak
1 minute ago / Nicholas Rose
Bonds Daily Outlook & Strategy, N.America, 14 Dec
7 minutes ago / Ben Levett
US Chart Eurodollar Strip Update
8 minutes ago / Rob Zukowski
US Chart Jun Eurodollar Update: The week's pullback phase stalls sooner than expected
17 minutes ago / Rob Zukowski
Mexico Preview- due December 21 - October Proxy GDP IGAE - We expect +0.2% m/m, +1.9% y/y
18 minutes ago / Pedro Tuesta
Norway Quick Central Bank Profile: Norges Bank
24 minutes ago / Rebecca Humphry
US Chart Mar 10yr T.Note Update: Could not reach 120-00 target before the reversal hit; key resistance at 120-24
27 minutes ago / Rob Zukowski
Eurozone Quick Central Bank Profile: European Central Bank
28 minutes ago / Rebecca Humphry
South Africa Flows: Rand continues to underperform against the broadly stronger U.S. dollar
29 minutes ago / Juri Kren
Chart EUR/CHF Update: Choppy in range
29 minutes ago / Mike Macdonald
Latam Markets Now! (North America)
31 minutes ago / Rebecca Humphry
FX Daily Outlook & Strategy, North America 14th December
33 minutes ago / Adrian Schmidt
Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP-10 MoM -1.23% m/m (Prev: -0.16 Mkt: -1.19 4CAST: -0.80)
38 minutes ago / Pedro Tuesta
US Chart Mar T.Bond Update: Stalled ahead of 142-04 target; overnight reversal sees 143-12 back in play early in the day
38 minutes ago / Rob Zukowski
Poland Preview: due Jan 4 - Dec CPI expected at 0.1% m/m, 1.2% y/y
1 hour ago / Juri Kren