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February 18, 2026
Turkish Economy Will Likely Grow by Around 3.8% in 2025
February 18, 2026 3:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) is scheduled to announce Q4 2024 and full-year GDP growth on March 2. We expect the Turkish economy expanded by approximately 3.8% y/y in 2025, underpinned by resilient household consumption, investment, and ongoing construction projects. Domesti
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024
February 18, 2026 2:46 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to
South Africa Inflation Moderately Eased to 3.5% y/y in January
February 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on February 18 that annual inflation slightly edged down moderately to 3.5% y/y in January, driven by higher housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Annual core inflation came in at 3.4%
Taiwan: Trade Deal with U.S. and China Grey Warfare
February 18, 2026 11:55 AM UTC
· The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage before 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the communist party). Wi
UK CPI Review: Fresh and Marked Fall Resumes as Core Slips to Cycle-Low?
February 18, 2026 10:03 AM UTC
Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, the clear fall in the headline rate and further looser labor market messages still point to a BoE rate cut next month, not least given the likely return to the 2% target by April. These projected falls started with these Ja