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May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook. Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been

May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S. This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027. The al