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December 06, 2024

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 December
Freemium Article

December 6, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

Japanese October household spending -1.3% y/y, +2.9% m/m

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 6th
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 5:10 AM UTC

U.S. November Employment Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Labor Cash Earning Will Capture BoJ's Eye
And Could Drive the JPY Lower

AUD/USD flows: Preparing for NFP
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 4:53 AM UTC

Regional sentiment upbeat

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending pullback from 7.3150 high
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:27 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 7.3150 fresh year high

USD/JPY flows: Household spending beats
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 3:05 AM UTC

Japanese October household spending -1.3% y/y, 2.9% m/m

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Under pressure, 15840 support at risk
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:58 AM UTC

Turned back to pressure the range low at 15840 after failing to sustain break of the 15952, November high

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure, further losses in focus
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:41 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend break of the 34.20 low to reach towards the 34.00 level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/KRW Update: Retest 1429.00 high; scope for break
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:25 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 1411.00 support has given way to rebound to retest the 1429.00 high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Poised for retest of 1.3362 support
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 2:05 AM UTC

Consolidating break of the 1.3400 level following rejection from the 1.3488 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains from November low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 1:44 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.2615/00 support to break the 1.2750 high of last week see prices extending gains from the 1.2487, November low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for retest of 1.0600/10 resistance
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 1:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1.0460 low and above the 1.0500 level see prices poised for retest of the 1.0600/10 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room to extend correction from 156.18 low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:51 AM UTC

Bounce from the 156.18 low see prices unwinding the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation at the 150.00 level
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Extending consolidation around the 150.00 level following bounce from the 148.64 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range-bound above the .6400 low
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:21 AM UTC

Steadied at the .6400 low and bounce here see prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

December 6, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as USD is kept lower before Friday's NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.64%, followed by MYR 0.58%, IDR 0.44%, SGD 0.37%, CNH 0.19%, CNY 0.07% and HKD 0.03%; the largest loser are KRW 0.22% and TWD 0.03%.
USD/CNH is trading lower a

December 05, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 5 December
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - In a quiet day the USD saw some slippage, led by EUR/USD. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 6th
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

U.S. November Employment Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Labor Cash Earning Will Capture BoJ's Eye
And Could Drive the JPY Lower

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Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data. 

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Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

We provide reviews of Egypt, Kuwait and Morocco.      

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 5th
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative

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France: A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 8:56 AM UTC

With a parliamentary no-confidence vote having toppled the Barnier administration convincingly, France has no government.  This far from unexpected development is a political crisis and one that even without the fiscal cuts that the failed Budget envisaged is likely to mean that the country also fa

Chartbook: Chart JP Nikkei Update: Consolidating below 40000 level - scope for break
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 8:07 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 40000 level at the start of Q4 as prices consolidate strong rally from the August spike low

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extend consolidation at the .9300 level
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

 Extending consolidation around the .9300 level after bounce attempt was checked at the .9330/.9350 congestion area

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure, .8267/.8259 lows at risk
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 6:46 AM UTC

Under pressure following break of the .8300 level with the .8267/8259 lows now at risk

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower, scope to retest 105.62 low
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 5:42 AM UTC

Leaning lower after failing to get a foothold above resistance at the 106.50 resistance

Asia Summary and Highlights 5 December
Freemium Article

December 5, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

BOJs Nakamura says he is not confident about sustainability of wage growth

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating below 84.7575 high, room for higher
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

Remains below the 84.7575 high as prices consolidate the bullish run-up from the 84.2200 low of last week

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 5th
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative

Chart USD/CNH Update: Weighing on the 7.2800/7.2730 support, scope for break
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 4:14 AM UTC

Settling back from break to fresh year high at 7.3150

USD/JPY flows: Holding on 150
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 3:58 AM UTC

BOJs Nakamura says he is not confident about sustainability of wage growth

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Limited break above 15952, November high
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 2:50 AM UTC

 Limited on break of the 15952 high but pressure remains on the upside and see room to extend gains from the September low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating rally to 1429.00 spike high
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 2:29 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from the 1429.00 spike high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extend consolidation below 1.3488/1.3512 highs
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:48 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation after bounce attempt was checked at the 1.3488 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending consolidation below 1.2750 high, scope for break later
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:39 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation around the 1.2700 level following pullback from the 1.2750 high of last week

AUD/USD flows: Better Trade Figure
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:33 AM UTC

Australia October trade balance 5.953B

Chart EUR/USD Update: Still vulnerable while 1.0600/10 resistance caps
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 1:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around the 1.0500 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room to extend bounce from 156.18 low
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 12:48 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 156.18 low has given way to stronger bounce to regain the 158.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce from 148.64 low
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

 Bounce from the 148.64 low to regain the 150.00 level has seen prices reaching resistance at 151.28

Chart AUD/USD Update: Turned up in consolidation from .6400 low
Paying Article

December 5, 2024 12:18 AM UTC

Choppy trade above the .6440 November low finally gave way to selling pressure

December 04, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 5th
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative

North American Summary and Highlights 4 December
Freemium Article

December 4, 2024 8:32 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger in Europe but lost ground after weaker ISM services data. Comments from Powell were however mildly USD supportive while the French government lost a no confidence vote. 

U.S. Fed's Powell - Cautious tone
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 7:23 PM UTC

The latest remarks from Fed Chairman Powell are cautious enough to leave uncertainty over the pace and timing of easing.

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Slightly more positive
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 7:19 PM UTC

The latest Fed Beige Book gives a slightly more positive view on the economy, though not on the labor market or prices. 

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South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)

Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S&P PMIs - Correcting November improvements
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 5:09 PM UTC

We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022. 

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Preview: Due December 17 - U.S. November Retail Sales - Trend still solid
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 4:36 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to maintain momentum in November, with a 0.6% increase overall with 0.5% gains both ex auto and ex auto and gasoline. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 5th
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 4:08 PM UTC

US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative

...
ECB Preview (Dec 12): Flagging An End to Policy Restriction
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 3:53 PM UTC

While a larger move is possible, we think that the ECB will instead opt for a fourth 25 bp discount rate cut at this month’s Council meeting, to 3%. But this meeting may be as important for what may be a change in forward guidance in which the ECB accepts that on-target inflation is likely to be d

USD flows: USD slips on weaker ISM services
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

USD lower after November ISM services surey comes in well below consensus