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October 08, 2024

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U.S. Fiscal Policy Post-Election: Temporary Fiscal Stress Rather Than a Crisis
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

We remain concerned that temporary fiscal stress will be evident in H1 2025, as rating agencies worry over the deficit/debt and interest rate trajectory that is unlikely to improve under either president.  This leaves an event risk of a ratings downgrade from one of the major agencies, given that t

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 8th
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Japanese wage data of interest given recent JPY weakness 
AUD still has upside scope as RBA minutes gives no surprise
GBP weakness can extend
NOK/SEK starting to move higher

Chart USD/BRL Update: Extend consolidation above 5.4000 level
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the strong support at the 5.4000 level

Chart USD/CHF Update: Lower in range from the .8600 level
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Settling back in range from the .8600 level and below the .8550 support see room for pullback to the Friday's range low at the .8500 level

AUD, JPY, NOK, SEK flows: AUD slips with Chinese equities
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

AUD lower as Chinese equities reverse recent gains after Golden Week. JPY edging higher, SEK to come under pressure.

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Remains below 195.95 resistance
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

Limited gains above the 195.00 level keep the 195.95, September bounce high, out of reach

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains from September low
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 6:06 AM UTC

Break above 1.3600 level extending gains from the 1.3420 low see scope for retest of the 1.3650, September high

Chart USD/INR Update: Scope for pullback from 83.9850, all-time high
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 5:36 AM UTC

Scope for pullback while the September all-time high at 83.9850 caps

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 October
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August 
Japan Overall Household spending +2.0% m/m
Japan economy minister Akazawa says drop in real wages is not good news
Chinese equities jumped almost 9% higher in the opening before retracing partial gains

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, October 8th
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 4:47 AM UTC

Japanese wage data of interest given recent JPY weakness 
AUD still has upside scope as RBA minutes gives no surprise
GBP weakness can extend
NOK/SEK starting to move higher

USD/JPY flows: Holding on to 148
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 4:46 AM UTC

Japan economy minister Akazawa says drop in real wages is not good news

Chart USD/CNH Update: Leaning lower from test of 7.1000 figure
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 4:20 AM UTC

Leaning lower from test of the 7.1000 resistance to retest Friday's range low at 7.0500 level

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:53 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside to extend gains from the 32.14, September YTD low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Still room to extend gains
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1350.00 level as prices unwind the stretched intraday studies

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains, but stretched
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:34 AM UTC

Bullish break above the 15470 resistance has seen further extension through the 15600 and 15654 resistance to reach the 15700 level

AUD/USD flows: Positive sentiment but opening gains halved
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:31 AM UTC

Chinese equities jumped almost 9% higher in the opening

Chart USD/SGD Update: Drifting lower in consolidation
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 2:15 AM UTC

Drifting lower in consolidation from the 1.3062 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating above strong support at 1.3045/00
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 1:46 AM UTC

 Edged off the 1.3060 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in range from the 1.0950 support
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 1:35 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up in consolidation from strong support at 1.0950 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Edging lower to consolidate rally from 158.00 low
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 12:53 AM UTC

Edging lower in consolidation from the 163.58 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in consolidation below 149.40 resistance
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 12:39 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation ahead of the strong resistance at the 149.40

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6750/45 support
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 12:18 AM UTC

Still pressing lower to extend losses from the .6942 high of last week to reach the .6750/45 congestion and 61.8% retracement 

USD/JPY flows: Consumption looks to be improving
Paying Article

October 8, 2024 12:11 AM UTC

Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August 
Japan Overall Household spending +2.0% m/m

October 07, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 8th
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Japanese wage data of interest given recent JPY weakness and dovish policy comments
AUD still has upside scope if RBA minutes don’t sound more dovish
GBP weakness can extend
NOK/SEK starting to move higher

North American Summary and Highlights 7 October
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited news, mild risk aversion was the main theme of trading. 

Preview: Due October 8 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 8th
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Japanese wage data of interest given recent JPY weakness and dovish policy comments
AUD still has upside scope if RBA minutes don’t sound more dovish
GBP weakness can extend
NOK/SEK starting to move higher

Psychology for major markets October 7th
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 10:16 AM UTC

USD staying firm after strong employment report.

Europe Summary and Highlights 7 October
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Mild risk aversion was the main theme of the European morning, with equities generally moving lower.

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UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Much has been made of the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, so far this year given sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  But this may be something of a flash in the pan, not least as GDP growth has been positive in only one of

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Still room to extend gains
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 8:14 AM UTC

Sharp rally from the September YTD low has seen gains to retrace 38.2% of the April/September fall to reach 102.60

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Still limited on bounce attempt
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 7:43 AM UTC

Failure to  sustain bounce above the 0.8400 level opens up the .8345 support and .8310 low to retest

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extend consolidation around .9400 level
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Edged higher from the .9332 low of last week to consolidate around the .9400 level

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Oct 1st
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Not much change in spec positioning in latest week. JPY and GBP positions still significantly long relative to history. Modest shorts in CAD and CHF

EUR, USD, JPY flows: USD stays firm, EUR vulnerable
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

USD stays firm after strong employment data. EUR vulnerable as spreads move in USD's favour. 

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending gains from .8400/.8375 lows
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Break above the September high at 0.8550 extend gains from the .8375 low to reach the .8600 level

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 October
Freemium Article

October 7, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

Japan's yen intervention official says will monitor FX including speculative movement
Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yen
Australian Melbourne Institute CPI for September 2024: 0.1% m/m (prior -0.1%)

USD/JPY flows: Verbal Intervention resurfaces
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Japan's yen intervention official says will monitor FX including speculative movement
Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yen

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating test of 7.1000 level
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 5:21 AM UTC

Break above strong resistance at the 7.0700/7.0840 lows of August has seen extension to the 7.1000 figure

Chart USD/INR Update: Extend consolidation below 83.9850, all-time high
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 5:08 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation just below the 83.9850, September all-time high

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, October 7th-11th
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 4:57 AM UTC

US CPI the main focus with the USD well supported
EUR could fall further as Friday rise in EUR yields unjustified
JPY remains under pressure with little chance of reversal of recent losses near term
Oil price will be watched for any impact from Middle East developments

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending strong gains
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 3:23 AM UTC

Sharply higher to extend rally from the 15070, September YTD low

USD/JPY flows: Reversed Early Gains
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 3:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY rose above 190 in early Asia
But have since reversed as U.S. Treasury Yields retraced more than JGB yields

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains from September low
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside to extend gains from the 32.14, September YTD low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating test of 1350.00 resistance
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 2:50 AM UTC

Break above strong resistance at the 1340.00 level saw follow-through above the September high at 1348.00 to reach the 1350.00 level

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating strong rally last week
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 2:21 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from the 1.3062 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Still heavy, but stretched
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 1:49 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.3070 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.0950 support
Paying Article

October 7, 2024 1:36 AM UTC

Breakdown from the 1.1000 level has seen extension to reach strong support at 1.0950, July high