LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

U.S. Shutdown: Longer We Go, Slower We Grow

January 16, 2019 / David Sloan
Should the U.S. government shutdown persist through Q1, a near-flat quarter for GDP growth could result. It seems unlikely that the standoff will persist for that long, but the path to a resolution remains unclear.

Eurozone: Underlying Inflation Refuses to Rise

January 09, 2019 / Andrew Wroblewski, Lars Lundqvist
ECB frustration with underlying Eurozone (EZ) inflation refusing to move toward the 2% target is increasingly clear to the extent that policy makers have recently suggested that the recent modest rise in wages has not spilled over into consumer prices because companies have absorbed the higher costs into their profit margins. This hardly-convincing line of argument is being undermined further by the unfolding drop in energy prices and the lack of any sign of emerging price pressures in the pipeline.

View Change: Moving Fed Hikes Back in Time

January 10, 2019 / Kevin Harris, David Sloan
We are changing our forecast of the timing of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while leaving the year-end fed funds rate forecast unchanged.
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Upside Open Off Last Week's Base

January 14, 2019 / Nicholas Rose

Although a firm start was sold sharply back, the reaction has been held above Friday's value.

Asia Daily Outlook / Strategy - 15 January 2019

January 14, 2019 / Darren Aw

The week kicked off with Asia FX incurring some losses, with IDR (-0.65%) the biggest loser.

Argentina Flows: Announcement of BCRA Intervention Takes ARS Back to 37.19, Still Far From the No Intervention Band

January 14, 2019 / Priscila Robledo

With the currency opening the day much stronger than the lower bound of the no-intervention zone (set today at 37.451), the BCRA has announced an auction to buy USD50 billion.

Aon's 2018 Global Terrorism and Politcal Risk Maps