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June 18, 2024

Preview: Due June 20 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to correct higher
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June 18, 2024 7:25 PM UTC

We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $207.0bn, or 2.9% of GDP, up from $194.8bn in Q4 when the deficit was 2.8% of GDP. Trend in the deficit has been narrowing since Q1 2022 and it is unclear whether Q1’s deterioration marks a turning of trend.

Preview: Due June 20 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Neutral month within a slowing trend
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June 18, 2024 7:19 PM UTC

We expect little change in May housing starts, where we expect a rise of 0.7% to 1370k, or permits, which we see unchanged at 1440k.  This is likely to be a pause before renewed slowing.

U.S. Fed talk - Musalem and Logan hawkish, others more balanced but few sounding dovish
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 6:58 PM UTC

There has been plenty of Fed talk today, with Musalem, Logan and Collins sounding quite hawkish, and Williams, Barkin and Kugler more balanced. Few are sounding dovish. Even the usually dovish Goolsbee, while like several welcoming recent inflation data, made few hints about easing. 

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Preview: Due June 28 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to round up to 0.2%
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 4:29 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in May’s core PCE price index, consistent with the core CPI though like the CPI we expect the gain to be on the low side of 0.2% before rounding. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal spending, underperforming a 0.5% rise in personal income.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 4:19 PM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to a drift lower

U.S. Fed's Collins - Appropriate to remain patient
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 3:58 PM UTC

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 19th
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June 18, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

Focus on UK CPI with BoE MPC meeting on Thursday
EUR/GBP may bounce a little if CPI doesn’t come in strong
JPY weakness getting even more extreme
CHF strength looking excessive

Preview: Due June 27 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - Higher on construction and net exports
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June 18, 2024 2:36 PM UTC

We expect the third (final) estimate for Q1 GDP to be revised up to 1.5% from the second (preliminary) estimate of 1.3%. The revision will come on construction and net exports. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
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June 18, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

Consolidating around congestion support at 0.6600 has given way to a bounce

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 2:05 PM UTC

The test above 169.00 is giving way to consolidation around 169.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Balanced - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. May Industrial Production - Improvement above trend may be difficult to sustain
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 1:37 PM UTC

May industrial production has seen a surprisingly strong rise of 0.9%, both overall and in manufacturing, the latter more than reversing a 0.4% decline in April. This is stronger than a previously near flat trend, though that may prove difficult to sustain.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower in range
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 1:29 PM UTC

Still little change

USD flows: USD softer after retail sales
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

USD lower after retail sales come in below consensus in May, but impact unlikely to be large

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U.S. May Retail Sales suggest consumer spending losing momentum
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

May retail sales with a 0.1% increase are weaker than expected and the downside surprise is larger when noting modest downward revisions to May and April. May sales fell by 0.1% ex autos and rose by only 0.1% ex autos and gasoline. 

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Prices under pressure
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:03 PM UTC

Anticipated minor gains have met selling interest at 2.707%, with prices pulling back towards congestion support at 2.300%.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Focus on current year lows
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June 18, 2024 11:10 AM UTC

Anticipated selling interest has broken below 18.2500 and put focus on the 18.0265 current year low of 21 May

European Summary and Highlights 18 June
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June 18, 2024 10:32 AM UTC

USD/JPY gained around 50 pips through the European morning, while most other pairs were not much changed.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited gains - studies remain under pressure
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June 18, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade

Psychology for major markets June 18th
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June 18, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

EUR stabilising as French risks seen as priced in for now. JPY still pressing the lows

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France Debt: Dependent on Non-Residents
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 9:20 AM UTC

Any further major fiscal slippage under a new government could prompt more of a reduction in French government bond exposure, which would likely mean a multi month/quarter risk premia for France and cause spillover difficulties for Italy. It is worth remembering that France is dependent on non-resid

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 18th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 9:11 AM UTC

RBA mildly hawkish
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends toward key levels
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

USD/JPY testing the retracement levels close to 158.30. Intervention risk rising

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Further consolidation - studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 8:12 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - room for later CHF-driven losses
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Higher towards strong resistance
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.8450 has been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - room for later losses
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 7:35 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 1.0700 has given way to a minor bounce

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating losses - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Cautious trade within support at the 1.2650 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.2674 weekly low of 24 May has given way to a bounce

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Room to extend gains
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 200.00 level giving way to buying interest and bounce at the 199.00 level see pressure returning to the upside

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Focus on the 104.85/104.95 highs
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and above the 104.00 level see scope for retest of the 104.85 and 104.95, May high and April YTD high

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidation at 1.6200 to give way to selling pressure
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Limited on bounce from the 1.6150 low and consolidation here see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

EUR, JPY, AUD: Mild risk recovery continues
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June 18, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

EUR firmer but upside limited. AUD supported by hawkish RBA. JPY weakness extends but one way market looks unsustainable.

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending gains from 1.0725 low
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:57 AM UTC

 Break above the 1.0800 level see prices extending bounce from the 1.0725 low to retrace losses from the 1.1030, May YTD high

Chart USD/INR Update: Lower in consolidation below 83.5735/50 highs
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

 Lower in consolidation from the 83.5735/50 highs as the overbought daily studies unwind overbought readings

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 June
Freemium Article

June 18, 2024 5:14 AM UTC

RBA kept rate unchanged
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 18th
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

RBA to stay put, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade

AUD/USD flows: RBA continue to hold
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:11 AM UTC

RBA recognize persistent higher inflation

RBA Review: Recognized slower inflation moderation
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on June 18th has kept rates on hold and see the moderation of inflation slower than expected

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending consolidation below the 7.2760, May high
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

Extending consolidation below the 7.2760 May high but pressure remains on the upside 

USD/JPY flows: Ueda fail to inspire a JPY rally with limited credibility
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 4:38 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting

Chart USD/THB Update: Higher in consolidation, resistance at 36.97
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 2:49 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation as prices extend bounce from the 36.40 low and see scope for retest of the 36.97 resistance

Chart USD/KRW Update: Settled back from 1388.00 resistance
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 2:39 AM UTC

Settled into consolidation below the 1388.00 resistance as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Lower in consolidation from test of 1.3545 Fibonacci level
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 2:22 AM UTC

Limited on break above the 1.3545 Fibonacci level as prices settled back in consolidation to unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.2700 level
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 1:49 AM UTC

 Turned up from the 1.2657 low to consolidate at the 1.2700 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in range from the 1.0668 low
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 1:28 AM UTC

Turned up in range to regain the 1.0700 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies from the 1.0668 low

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Back to the 170.00/168.00 range
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:58 AM UTC

Higher in range from the 167.52 low as prices extend consolidation within the 170.00/168.00 range

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating below 158.00
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:48 AM UTC

Settled into consolidation below the 158.00 level 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Lower in consolidation, support at .6100/.6085
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:24 AM UTC

Lower within the range seen last week following rejection from the .6222 high to approach the .6100/.6085 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extend consolidation above .6580 support
Paying Article

June 18, 2024 12:07 AM UTC

Limited below the .6600 level as prices extend consolidation here though break to retest the .6580 support not ruled out

June 17, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 18th
Paying Article

June 17, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

RBA to stand pat, but some upside AUD risks
US retail sales unlikely to change the underlying USD picture
EUR stabilising but still some downside risks on French politics
JPY weakness extends but should fade