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December 06, 2024
Preview: Due December 17 - U.S. November Industrial Production - Rebounding from hurricanes and Boeing strike
December 6, 2024 5:10 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% rise in November industrial production with a 0.8 increase in manufacturing, the former partially and the latter fully reversing declines in September and October that were attributed to hurricanes and a strike at Boeing.
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
December 6, 2024 3:51 PM UTC
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
Canada November Employment - Strong job growth came largely in the public sector
December 6, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Canada’s 50.5k increase in employment was stronger than expected in November, and fully explained by a 54.2k rise in full time work. However, with 45k of the new jobs created coming in the public sector the data is less impressive than it initially seems. With unemployment up and wages slower we c
U.S. November Employment - Solid report but not a game changer
December 6, 2024 2:01 PM UTC
November’s non-farm payroll is near consensus with a rise of 227k with moderate upward revisions to both September and October totaling 56k. Average hourly earnings rose by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% and the workweek rose (though only because October was revised down) but the unemploym
This week's five highlights
December 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
U.S. November Employment To Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
U.S. November ADP Employment Mostly strong despite weak manufacturing
USD/JPY Chops Around
A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One for France
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
December 6, 2024 12:20 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as USD is kept lower before Friday's NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.64%, followed by MYR 0.58%, IDR 0.44%, SGD 0.37%, CNH 0.19%, CNY 0.07% and HKD 0.03%; the largest loser are KRW 0.22% and TWD 0.03%.
USD/CNH is trading lower a
December 05, 2024
Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 5th
December 5, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative
France: A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One
December 5, 2024 8:56 AM UTC
With a parliamentary no-confidence vote having toppled the Barnier administration convincingly, France has no government. This far from unexpected development is a political crisis and one that even without the fiscal cuts that the failed Budget envisaged is likely to mean that the country also fa