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December 06, 2024
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
December 6, 2024 12:20 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as USD is kept lower before Friday's NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.64%, followed by MYR 0.58%, IDR 0.44%, SGD 0.37%, CNH 0.19%, CNY 0.07% and HKD 0.03%; the largest loser are KRW 0.22% and TWD 0.03%.
USD/CNH is trading lower a
December 05, 2024
Preview: Due December 6 - U.S. November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
December 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
We expect an above trend 260k increase in November’s non-farm payroll, with 225k in the private sector. This will follow weak October outcomes of up 12k overall and down 28k in the private sector, depressed by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. We however expect unemployment to be unchanged at
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
December 5, 2024 1:51 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k are a little higher than expected after two weeks at 215k (last week was revised up from 213k which was the lowest since April). The level is still low and it is possible that seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday influenced the latest weekly data.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 5th
December 5, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative
France: A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One
December 5, 2024 8:56 AM UTC
With a parliamentary no-confidence vote having toppled the Barnier administration convincingly, France has no government. This far from unexpected development is a political crisis and one that even without the fiscal cuts that the failed Budget envisaged is likely to mean that the country also fa
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 5th
December 5, 2024 5:12 AM UTC
US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative
December 04, 2024
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 5th
December 4, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative
South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3
December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)
Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S&P PMIs - Correcting November improvements
December 4, 2024 5:09 PM UTC
We expect December’s S and P PMIs to show a marginal slippage, manufacturing to 49.0 from November’s 5-month high of 49.7 and services to a still healthy 55.5 from 56.1, which was the highest monthly reading since March 2022.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 5th
December 4, 2024 4:08 PM UTC
US jobless claims unlikely to move the market ahead of the US employment report
USD/JPY downside sill favoured
EUR/USD looking vulnerable given background French uncertainty
SEK could benefit from CPI, but seasonal flow could be a negative
ECB Preview (Dec 12): Flagging An End to Policy Restriction
December 4, 2024 3:53 PM UTC
While a larger move is possible, we think that the ECB will instead opt for a fourth 25 bp discount rate cut at this month’s Council meeting, to 3%. But this meeting may be as important for what may be a change in forward guidance in which the ECB accepts that on-target inflation is likely to be d