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May 27, 2024

Psychology for major markets May 27th
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May 27, 2024 3:55 PM UTC

USD mixed on Monday and focus on data/ECB rate cuts

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Fed Easing Expectations: Volatile and Data Driven
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May 27, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

 Bottom Line: Fed easing expectations have been reset to higher for longer.  However, softer real sector data, plus less worrying inflation monthly outcomes, can rebuild easing expectations.  We see the first 25bps coming at the September 19 FOMC meeting and around this time a noticeable increase

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 May
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May 27, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

The JPY has held onto marginal gains in Europe in holiday thinned trading with the U.S. and UK on holiday today. 

FX Weekly Strategy: Americas, May 27th-31st
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May 27, 2024 9:55 AM UTC

PCE/CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

EUR flows: ECB Lane Confirms June 6 Cut and More in 2024
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May 27, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

No FX reaction to a key FT interview with ECB Lane, though bond yields edged lower.

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Shallow bounce from .8500 low
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

Steadied at the .8500 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies though shallow bounce keep pressure firmly on the downside

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending gains, room to .9950
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May 27, 2024 7:18 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and break above the .9900 level see room to target the .9950 congestion

JPY flows: JPY holding onto small gains
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May 27, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

The JPY has held onto marginal gains in Europe in holiday thinned trading with the U.S. and UK on holiday today

Chart USD/CAD Update: Reversal from 1.3743 high
Freemium Article

May 27, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Break above the 1.3700 level has seen gains stalling ahead of the 1.3750/62 resistance

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Votes to Volatility: Potential Market Outcomes and Policy Directions Post Elections
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May 27, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

As India’s month long 2024 General Elections are almost coming to a close, lower voter turnout has increased uncertainty despite expectations of a BJP victory. While we still expect a BJP victory, the markets are becoming increasingly cautious. A decisive BJP win would likely strengthen the rupee

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating at the .9150/55 resistance
Freemium Article

May 27, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the .9150/55 congestion area 

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Lower in range from 105.12 high
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May 27, 2024 6:25 AM UTC

Limited above the 105.00 level and rejection from the 105.12 high see prices settling back in range

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating at 83.0300 low, room for lower later
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May 27, 2024 5:41 AM UTC

Edged off from the 83.0300 low to consolidate sharp break of the 83.4000 congestion last week

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 May
Freemium Article

May 27, 2024 5:39 AM UTC

BOJ's Uchida says "we have overcome the zero lower bound"
China launched a US$47bn state-backed fund to boost the country's semiconductor industry

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 27th-31st
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May 27, 2024 5:36 AM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment improves from more Chinese support
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May 27, 2024 5:35 AM UTC

China launched a US$47bn state-backed fund to boost the country's semiconductor industry

USD/JPY flows: Retreated from 157
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May 27, 2024 5:29 AM UTC

BOJ's Uchida says "we have overcome the zero lower bound"

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BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens
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May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

Chart USD/MYR Update: Lower in consolidation from 4.7170 high
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May 27, 2024 4:28 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation from the 4.7170 high

Chart USD/CNH Update: Lower in consolidation from 7.2630 high, scope for deeper pullback
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May 27, 2024 2:54 AM UTC

Bullish run-up from the 7.2040 low showing signs of fading

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending corrective bounce
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May 27, 2024 2:35 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 16000 level has given way to stronger bounce to extend gains from the 15914 low

Chart USD/THB Update: Leaning lower from Friday's 36.75 high
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May 27, 2024 2:21 AM UTC

  Leaning lower from the Friday's spike high at 36.75 as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Lower in consolidation from the 1370.00/1373.00 resistance
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 2:00 AM UTC

 Settling back from test of the 1370.00/1373.00 resistance

Chart USD/SGD Update: Settling back from test of 1.3525 resistance
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May 27, 2024 1:51 AM UTC

 Settling back from test of the 1.3525 resistance 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Focus return to the 1.2760 spike high
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 1:29 AM UTC

 Limited on break of the 1.2700 level and rebound at the 1.2675 low see the 1.2760 spike high of last week back in focus

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in consolidation above the 1.0812/00 support
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 1:12 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation above support at the 1.0812/00 congestion as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains, but stretched
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May 27, 2024 12:50 AM UTC

Still stretching with break above the 170.00 level on Friday reaching fresh high at 170.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating below 157.00, scope for pullback
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May 27, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

No follow-through on probes above the 157.00 level with gains checked at the 157.20 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at the .6600/.6580 support
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Held firm at the .6600/.6580 support with bounce consolidating losses from the .6715 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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May 27, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback remains solid in earlier Asia session before slipping the the London and New York session. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.52%, followed by THB 0.44%, MYR 0.16%, PHP 0.10%, TWD 0.08%, CNH and HKD 0.05%, CNY 0.01%; the

May 26, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 27th-31st
Paying Article

May 26, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 27th-31st
Paying Article

May 26, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

May 24, 2024

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Banxico Minutes: Unanimous Pause, Diverging Cuts
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 9:24 PM UTC

Banxico maintained the policy rate at 11%, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The board was unanimous in this decision but divided on the timing of future cuts. Despite expectations for a rebound in economic activity, concerns about inflationary pressure

FX Weekly Strategy: May 27th-31st
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May 24, 2024 2:42 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Less weak than the preliminary, with less of a bounce in inflation expectations
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

May’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a substantial fall in confidence and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The final data shows a slightly smaller fall in confidence and less evidence of rising inflation expectations.

Canada March Retail Sales - Soft month, subdued quarter, but stronger April expected
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May 24, 2024 1:26 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.2% decline in March retail sales  was a little weaker than the preliminary unchanged estimate given with February’s report, and the detail looks weaker still, with sales down by 0.6% ex autos and overall sales down by 0.4% in real terms. The preliminary signal for April however is po

U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Rise fully on defense but some underlying improvement
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May 24, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

April durable goods orders are stronger than expected, and while the gains of 0.7% overall and 0.4% ex transport are moderate, they are a little above recent trend. While the overall rise came fully on defense, gains in non-defense capital ex aircraft orders of 0.3% and shipments of 0.4% suggest bus

European Summary and Highlights 24 May
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May 24, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

In a quiet European morning, EUR/USD gained 20 pips to 1.0830, USD/JPY slipped 10 pips to 157, EUR/CHF gained around 15 pips to test the recent highs, and EUR/NOK fell 4 figures to its lowest since March near 11.50.

Psychology for major markets May 24th
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

USD supported after strong PMI

This week's five highlights
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May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This week's Fed Speaker and May FOMC Minute Review
RBNZ Keeping Restrictive Rates Longer
UK Called for July Election
UK Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Canada April CPI Shows Continued Progress in the BoC core rates

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 24th
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

JPY to focus more on intervention threat than Japanese CPI
Levels suggests intervention likely but timing uncertain
GBP to maintain firm tone despite softer PMIs
CHF looks a more attractive funding currency than the JPY

Chart USD/MXN Update: Extending corrective bounce from 16.5100 support
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from support at the 16.5100, March low

Chart USD/BRL Update: Higher in consolidation from the 5.0500 low
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

Turning higher in choppy trade from the 5.0850 low

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UK Sales Weakness Curbing Pricing Power?
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

Ending an interesting week of UK data, retail sales slumped in April, partly due to what was a wet month.  Notably, sales volumes fell by 2.3% m/m following a broadly flat February and March 2024 and were down by 2.7% y/y and 3.8% below their pre-pandemic level.  This weaker-than-expected outcome

GBP flows: GBP briefly dips on weaker retail sales
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 6:28 AM UTC

Weaker than expected April retail sales are likely erratic and will have little sustained impact on GBP

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating, scope to extend gains
Freemium Article

May 24, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the .9150/55 congestion

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating test of 83.1560 support
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 5:31 AM UTC

Follow-through below the strong support at the 83.2650 has seen losses to reach the April low at 83.1560

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains, room to 105.50/75 area
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 105.00 level has given way to break higher to extend gains from the 104.25/00 support