North American Summary and Highlights 19 October

October 19, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

Overview - It was a quiet start to the week with the USD making marginal gains, led by USD/JPY. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in CAD-driven trade

October 19, 2026 4:01 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support within the 1.4085 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.4100

Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further

October 19, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 20

October 19, 2026 3:30 PM UTC

France remains in focus, even if positioning and expiries help to cushion
USD long positioning was back to the extremes pre-CPI-reaction; euro crosses still struggle
A political winter of discontent asks FX questions of who comes out on top - CHF? JPY?

Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative

October 19, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market. 

U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Lowest since 2012 as mortgage rates rise

October 19, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

October’s NAHB homebuilders index at 29 from 32 is the lowest since June 2012 and suggests that rising mortgage rates are having a significant impact on housing demand.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher

October 19, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh push higher

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade - room for a minor test higher

October 19, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

The test below congestion support at 177.00 has bounced sharply from 176.65~

EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/USD flows - who comes out on top in a winter of discontent?

October 19, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

Euro propped by positioning, expiries, though crosses still slip
Near-term stretched action aside, big picture focus could increasingly revolve around politics of discontent
CHF carry continues to be challenged, and retraced, by its socio-economic safety

Chart USD/JPY Update: Price action remains cautious

October 19, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 158.00 is giving way to a drift higher

Canada September CPI - Softer core rates will comfort the BoC

October 19, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% overall but this is softer than the 3.2% expected by the market. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates all moved lower. This suggests that despite concerns over oil, the BoC need feel no urgency to tighten at this month’s meeting.

Monthly US Chart 10 Year Yield: Turning away from 19-year highs

October 19, 2026 12:39 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have posted a fresh 19-year high at 5.365%, before falling steadily towards support at 5.000%

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains from fresh year low

October 19, 2026 11:39 AM UTC

The anticipated break below support at the 1.3200 range lows has posted a fresh year low at 1.3137

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Prices remain under pressure

October 19, 2026 10:16 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have tested below support at the 0.9245 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 0.9250 to reach 0.9225

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, 19-23 October

October 19, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

US bonds and USD became overstretched, looking to rebalance n/t
Euro remains weighed crosses out of French disorder
Quiet week though event risks coming onto the horizon
Big picture cross-asset themes across bonds-equities-dollar relationships remain a background focus

UK CPI Preview: Further Increase Will Push the BoE to Hike in November

October 19, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

This week’s CPI headline is expected to continue to reflect the impact of the oil price shock with markets seeing an increase to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.1% before. To date, energy has been the main culprit behind the rise in headline inflation with goods also showing a modest increase (see Fi