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April 25, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 26th
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 2:51 PM UTC

JPY may weaken if BoJ indicates no rush to tighten…
…potentially triggering FX intervention
EUR/USD well supported but could suffer if Eurozone money data is weak
SEK has scope to recover after Thursday dip following strong Swedish data

U.S. March Pending Home Sales bounce follows sharp February rise in Existing Home Sales
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC

March has seen a stronger than expected 3.4% increase in pending home sales. Normally pending home sales lead existing home sales but in this case we appear to be seeing a catch up with strength in February existing home sales.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Choppy in range
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April 25, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

The anticipated retest above congestion resistance at 0.6500 has met selling interest beneath 0.6560

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced at 2008 levels - daily studies trading higher
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April 25, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached the 166.85 low of 5 August 2008

Chart USD/JPY Update: Balanced beneath the 155.80 high of June 1990
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April 25, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 155.80 high of June 1990 has all but been seen

U.S. Q1 GDP - Charts and Table
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April 25, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

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Q1 U.S. GDP Slows on Imports and Inventories, Core PCE Prices Stronger on the Quarter
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Q4 GDP has come in weaker than expected at 1.6% annualized but with a stronger than expected 3.7% annualized increase in the core PCE price index. Weaker inventories and stronger imports are the main reason for the GDP slowing so the data is not a clear signal of underlying weakness. Lower initial (

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited scope above 106.00
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April 25, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a bounce

USD flows: USD up slightly after GDP
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April 25, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Market focusing on higher PCE deflator and solid domestic growth so US yields and the USD modestly higher

Chart USD/RUB Update: Under pressure
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April 25, 2024 11:51 AM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to the anticipated test lower

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 11:29 AM UTC

The test above resistance at 4.3300 has not been sustained

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Sharp reversal lower - daily studies turning down
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 10:52 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath resistance at 19.2000 has given way to a sharp pullback to congestion support at 19.0000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Gains to remain limited
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April 25, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a EUR-driven break higher

European Summary and Highlights 25 Apr
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April 25, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

The European morning saw general gains for the riskier currencies, with GBP and the AUD the best performers.

Psychology for major markets Apr 25
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April 25, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

EUR and riskier currencies better bid, JPY at new 34 year lows

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Norges Bank Preview: Nothing New to Note?
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Surprising few, the Norges Bank Board is very likely to leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a third successive meeting when it gives it next verdict on May 3.  It is also likely to retain the thinking first aired at the December meeting, namely the ‘policy to stay on hold for some time ahead’ rhe

GBP flows: GBP benefiting from risk positive tone
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April 25, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP rising this morning in general risk positive market. BHP-Anglo takeover deal unlikely to be relevant

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 25th
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April 25, 2024 8:46 AM UTC

US Q1 GDP the main focus
USD risks weighted to the downside
JPY intervention risk rising, but may wait until after Fridays BoJ meeting
SEK has scope for gains after strong economic tendency survey

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Room for still higher
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

Little change to the bullish tone

Chart USD/CHF Update: Turning away from fresh 2024 high
Freemium Article

April 25, 2024 8:04 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the minor break above 0.9150 to a fresh 2024 high around 0.9153

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Lower in GBP-driven trade
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a sharp pullback in GBP-driven trade

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for higher in the coming sessions
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

The test of congestion around 1.0700 has given way to the anticipated break

SEK flows: SEK upside potential after strong economic tendency survey
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 7:27 AM UTC

SEK has potential to rally with economic tendency survey suggesting recovery is underway

Chart GBP/USD Update: Sentiment improving
Freemium Article

April 25, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated move higher

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Still heavy, scope for retest of 1.6365/1.6350 lows
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

Still heavy and break of the 1.6455 support see the 1.6400 level within reach

JPY flows: JPY weakness intensifies, intervention possible, but...
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 7:07 AM UTC

JPY weakness intensified overnight and increased the potential for intervention. This may be seen in the next few days, and the JPY does have potential to rally sharply given the huge real decline in recent years. But a turn higher in risk premia looks necessary to trigger a long term reversal of cu

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating test of 1.0980/1.1000 resistance, higher later
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Rally through the 1.0950/55 highs extend strong gains from the February low at 1.0570 to reached the 1.0980/1.1000 resistance

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Focus shift to 195.85, 2015 year high
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Choppy trade below the 193.55/193.00 high has given way to break to further extend the underlying bull trend from the 2020 year low

BoJ's Intervention and its impact
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April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Break to fresh high see room to 102.85, 2014 year high
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 6:20 AM UTC

Sharply higher to extend rally from the 19 April spike low to fresh year high at 101.35

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 Apr
Freemium Article

April 25, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi said rapid FX moves undesirable, ready for full response

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 25th
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

US Q1 GDP the main focus
USD risks weighted to the downside
JPY intervention risk rising, but may wait until after Fridays BoJ meeting
SEK may need a better economic tendency survey to hold current levels

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment guiding the Aussie
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 5:22 AM UTC

Regional sentiment guides the Aussie

USD/JPY flows: Still no intervention in sight
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 5:19 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi said rapid FX moves undesirable, ready for full response

Chart USD/CNH Update: Higher in consolidation from 7.2415 low
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 5:07 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 7.2415 low to retest the 7.2700 resistance

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating above 83.2740 support
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 4:51 AM UTC

Bounce at the 83.2740 support see prices consolidating pullback from the 83.5750 high 

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Limited pullback from the 16284 high
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April 25, 2024 3:42 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from the 16284 high as prices unwind the deep overbought daily studies

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains - focus on the 37.24, 2023 year high
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 2:54 AM UTC

Held firm above the 36.80 support with bounce keeping pressure on the upside to extend gains from the December low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
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April 25, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 1371.00 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Still limited below the 1.3600 level
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 2:13 AM UTC

Still limited below the 1.3600 level and clear break here is needed to open up deeper pullback from the 1.3670 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Still scope to extend corrective gains
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 1:53 AM UTC

Sharp gains from the 1.2300 low reached the 1.2470/85 resistance

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating at the 1.0700 level, room for higher
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 1:37 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.0695/1.0700 resistance and scope seen for break higher to extend bounce from the 1.0600 low.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Fresh gains above the 166.00 level
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 1:18 AM UTC

Further extending the bullish break of the 165.35 March high and follow-through above the 166.00 level shift focus to the 2008 high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Break above 155.00 see room to 155.80, June 1990 high
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 1:02 AM UTC

Break above the 155.00 level extending gains to fresh 34-year high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Limited gains, but scope for higher
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 12:34 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices consolidate test of the .5950 congestion

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6500/25 resistance, still room for higher
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Saw break above the .6500 level to reach the .6525 resistance before settling back in consolidation

April 24, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 25th
Paying Article

April 24, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

US Q1 GDP the main focus
USD risks weighted to the downside
JPY intervention risk rising, but may wait until after Fridays BoJ meeting
SEK may need a better economic tendency survey to hold current levels

North American Summary and Highlights 24 Apr
Freemium Article

April 24, 2024 7:59 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY broke above 155 though the USD was mixed with little clear direction elsewhere. 

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Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
Paying Article

April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and