Continuum Economics

December 16, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Prices remain under pressure

December 16, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh selling interest

Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Correcting from Q3 strength

December 16, 2025 5:09 PM UTC

We expect October Canadian GDP to fall by 0.3% in a correction from surprisingly strong Q3 data and in line with the preliminary estimate made with September’s data.

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower

December 16, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 17th

December 16, 2025 3:50 PM UTC

UK CPI a downside risk for GBP
Softer equities to weigh on riskier currencies
JPY to benefit in more risk negative conditions
AUD still represents value

U.S. December S&P PMIs - Less positive, particularly services

December 16, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are both weaker and below consensus, manufacturing only marginally at 51.8 from 52.2 but services more significantly at 52.9 from 54.1. The composite fell to 53.0 from 54.2.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle

December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

· Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade - daily studies under pressure

December 16, 2025 2:36 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath the 0.6685 weekly high of 10 December

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure

December 16, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath critical resistance at 183.00~

U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum

December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending losses in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

December 16, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

Asterisk denotes strength of level
13:40 GMT - Cautious trade has given way to fresh losses in both USD- and JPY-driven trade, with prices currently consolidating the test of strong support at the 154.34 weekly low of 5 December. Daily readings are negative and broader weekly charts are turning down,

USD flows: Little changed after mixed employment report

December 16, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

USD little changed after US employment data shows slightly stronger private payroll growth but higher unemployment and weaker average earnings.

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending pressure on critical support at the 4.2200 Fibonacci retracement

December 16, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

Little change, as choppy price action extends pressure on critical support at the 4.2200 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/ZAR Update: April losses trading at fresh year lows

December 16, 2025 12:20 PM UTC

Fresh year lows, with prices currently trading around 16.7620

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Potential for a break above 1.6200

December 16, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test of congestion resistance at 1.6200

Europe Summary and Highlights 16 December

December 16, 2025 11:21 AM UTC

GBP made some gains through the European morning, benefiting from a slightly less weak than expected labour market report for the 3 months to October.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

December 16, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the break above 0.9350

Psychology for major markets Dec 16

December 16, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD softening slightly

Commodities Outlook: A Balancing Act

December 16, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Global oil demand is expected to be modest, with weak consumption in the U.S. and China, while India will support demand in 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply is expected to expand moderately in 2026, whereas OPEC’s policy will respond to demand but remains puzzling. Supply trends in 2027 are likely t

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 16th

December 16, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

US employment data likely mixed and of limited impact
JPY and AUD remain the most attractive G10 currencies
PMIs favour GBP
UK labour market data mixed

EUR, GBP flows: GBP gaining from better PMI, but...

December 16, 2025 9:38 AM UTC

GB gains on better PMI with Eurozone weaker, but the UK PMI data is not particularly trustworthy

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure

December 16, 2025 9:20 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade around congestion support at 0.7950

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower

December 16, 2025 9:12 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Meeting selling interest beneath strong resistance at 0.8800

December 16, 2025 8:46 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.8772, (GBP/EUR 1.1400), has met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 0.8800 break level

EUR, JPY flows: EUR softer after weaker German PMI

December 16, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

EUR slips a little after weaker German PMI, EUR/JPY vulnerable

Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q1 2026

December 16, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.