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December 12, 2024
Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
December 12, 2024 5:24 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,
ECB Review: Clearly Flagging An End to Policy Restriction
December 12, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
A fourth 25 bp discount rate cut at this latest Council meeting, to 3%, was also the third in a row. But this meeting was important for the (as we expected) change in forward guidance in which the ECB accepts that on-target inflation is likely to be durable enough so that it no longer has to pursue
U.S. November PPI lifted by chicken eggs, Initial Claims bounce in early December
December 12, 2024 1:58 PM UTC
Initial claims rose surprisingly sharply in the week t December 7, to an 8-week high of 242k from 225k, which hints at potentially slower growth in the December non-farm payroll, which will be surveyed next week. November PPI with a 0.4% rise overall was stronger than expected, but the ex food and e
BCB Review: Shock 100bps Hike
December 12, 2024 10:12 AM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank raised the policy rate by 100bps to 12.25%, with plans for two more 100bps hikes, reaching 14.25% by early 2025—the highest in 18 years. The decision reflects fiscal concerns, inflation risks, and a 10% depreciation of the Real. The BCB aims to curb inflation and protect
SNB Review: Easing Bias Toned Down?
December 12, 2024 9:21 AM UTC
In what seems to be ever-clearer policy front-loading, the SNB cut its policy rate by 50 bp (to 0.5%), thereby accentuating an easing cycle that had delivered three 25 bp moves since March. Possibly, this larger, but far from unexpected, reduction was driven by a fresh assessment that the inflatio