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May 23, 2024

Preview: Due May 24 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Underlying trend remains near flat
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect April durable goods orders to fall by 0.8% after a rise of 0.9% in March (after annual revisions were released on May 14) with a 0.3% increase ex transport to follow an unchanged March. Underlying trend remains close to flat. 

U.S. Initial Claims suggest any labor market slowing is marginal
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 12:45 PM UTC

Initial claims at 215k have fallen from 223k, a second straight fall from the 232k outcome two weeks ago that was the highest since August 25 2023. The latest data is not much above the trend seen before the spike of two weeks ago, suggesting that while the labor market may be easing slightly, it is

European Summary and Highlights 23 May
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

EUR/USD gained around 15 pips to 1.0845 in the European morning helped by slightly better than expected Eurozone PMI data.

Psychology for major markets May 23rd
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 10:03 AM UTC

EUR supported after strong PMI

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Eurozone: PMIs Offer More Positive Gimmers – Still Too Good to be True?
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 9:19 AM UTC

The latest PMI data suggest the EZ economic recovery gained further momentum in May as the composite index rose to 52.3 in May from 51.7 in April, thereby implying positive private sector growth for the third consecutive month.  We remain wary about the messages from the data (see below and Figure

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 23rd
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 9:10 AM UTC

PMIs the focus for Thursday
More relative US weakness could undermine the USD
GBP well bid and could benefit from election talk
JPY weakness could trigger intervention very soon

GBP flows: GBP slips wih UK PMI
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

UK composite and services PMI weaker, manufacturing better, GBP lower.

EUR flows: EUR firm on better Eurozone PMI
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 8:04 AM UTC

Eurozone PMI slightly avove expectations driven by strong manufacturing

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Focus on the 200.55, April YTD high
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

 Break above the 197.10/198.00 resistance extending rally to approach the 200.00 level

EUR flows: EUR recovers on stronger German PMIs
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

German PMIs come in stronger than expected, reversing the impact of the weaker French numbers earlier. The Eurozone numbers as a whole now look likely to come in broadly in line with the modestly stronger consensus.  

EUR flows: EUR softer on French PMIs
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected French services and composite PMIs for May. These are likely to weigh on EUR/USD if repeated in the German and Eurozone data.  

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Extending losses, focus on the .8500/.8492 lows
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

Further extend losses from the .8645 high of April

USD, JPY, AUD, EUR flows: USD firm, AUD and JPY soft
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

USD firm after FOMC minutes. AUD suffering as China stocks ease. JPY pressures intervention levels

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 6:39 AM UTC

Extending gains and break above the .9900, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, see room to the .9950 congestion

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Support to ANC is on the Rise
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

Bottom line: We continue to foresee two possible outcomes of South African presidential elections on May 29, either an African National Congress (ANC) win (40% probability) or a coalition government (60% probability). According to recent polls, ANC continues to be at the risk of losing its majority

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending corrective bounce from 1.3600/1.3590 support
Freemium Article

May 23, 2024 6:15 AM UTC

Break above the 1.3650 resistance extending gains from the 1.3600/1.3590 support 

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating test of .9150/55 congestion
Freemium Article

May 23, 2024 5:42 AM UTC

Break above the .9100 level has seen gains to reach the .9150/55 congestion

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2024 5:19 AM UTC

Chinese State Broadcaster says Chinese military drills are punishment for Taiwan

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 23rd
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

PMIs the focus for Thursday
More relative US weakness could undermine the USD
GBP well bid and could benefit from election talk
JPY weakness could trigger intervention very soon

USD/JPY flows: Following USD moves
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY touched a high since May 1st and retreats

AUD/USD flows: Caution from Chinese Military Drills
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 4:46 AM UTC

Chinese State Broadcaster says Chinese military drills are punishment for Taiwan
Australian May Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.1% y/y

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending corrective bounce from the 104.25/00 support
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 4:10 AM UTC

Extending gains from the 104.25/00 support area as prices unwind the oversold daily studies

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending gains, but stretched
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 3:26 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 7.2470 resistance has given way to break to extend gains from the 7.1650 low

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Corrective bounce to give way to selling pressure later
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 3:07 AM UTC

Settled into consolidation at the 16000 level but further gains not ruled out 

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending corrective bounce from 1343.00 support
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 2:39 AM UTC

  Pressure remains on the upside as prices extend gains from the 1343.00 low

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extend corrective gains from 1.3420 low
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 1:52 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1.3420 low of last week and regaining the 1.3500 level see room to the 1.3525 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for deeper pullback from 1.2760 spike high
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 1:33 AM UTC

Saw spike to reach 1.2760 high ahead of pullback as prices unwind the overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower in consolidation below 1.0900 level
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 1:15 AM UTC

 Break of 1.0850 congestion see prices leaning lower to extend consolidation below the 1.0900 level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating below the 170.00 level
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 1:04 AM UTC

Break above the 169.40 resistance has seen prices settling into consolidation below the 170.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

Still stretching and break above the 156.78 high see the 157.00 level and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement now within reach

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending pullback from .6700/15 resistance
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 12:18 AM UTC

Consolidation above the .6650 support has given way to break to extend pullback from the .6700/15 resistance 

May 22, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 23rd
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs the focus for Thursday
More relative US weakness could undermine the USD
GBP well bid and could benefit from election talk
JPY weakness could trigger intervention very soon

North American Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2024 7:48 PM UTC

Overview - The USD made modest gains, with the advance under way before the FOMC minutes. GBP was supported by a stronger than expected CPI.  

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FOMC Minutes from May 1 - Data expected to slow, but alert to risks
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from May 1 do not show a very hawkish view of the economy, with inflation and the economy still expected to slow, though with the former seen at a slower pace and with less confidence. Policy is seen as data-dependent, and the potential for a more hawkish turn if data disappoints can be

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 23rd
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

PMIs the focus for Thursday
More relative US weakness could undermine the USD
GBP well bid and could benefit from election talk
JPY weakness could trigger intervention very soon

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Argentina: Fourth Consecutive Month of Primary Surplus but It is Reducing
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 2:44 PM UTC

Argentina has delivered the fourth consecutive months of primary surplus. Most of this surplus comes from cutting the consumption of goods and services by the national administration and mainly by the pace of revenues growth which surpassed the growth of expenditures. However, the surpluses are redu

U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Extending correction from strong February rise
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

April existing home sales with a 1.9% decline to 4.14m follow a 3.7% decline in March in a continued correction from a surge of 9.5% in February. 2023 also saw a strong rise in February and a steady slowing in the months that followed.

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Slippage seen, particularly in Manufacturing
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage, manufacturing quite significantly to 48.5 from 50.0, but services only marginally to 51.0 from 51.3. 

European Summary and Highlights 22 May
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 11:31 AM UTC

EUR/GBP dropped 20 pips in the European morning following the stronger than expected UK April CPI data.

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South Africa’s Inflation Softened to 5.2% in April, the Lowest Reading in Four Months
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 10:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on May 22, the inflation eased to 5.2% YoY in April down from 5.3% in March due to less severe power cuts (load shedding), a firmer South African rand (ZAR) coupled with lower food and no

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Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 22nd
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

NZD jumped on RBNZ's upward OCR revision
GBP risks slightly on the downside on UK CPI
The USD could benefit from more hawkish FOMC minutes

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UK CPI Inflation Review: Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

It is very clear that labor market and CPI data are crucial to BoE thinking about the timing and even the existence of any start to an easing cycle.  But perhaps the CPI data is the most crucial with more signs of resilient services (and particularly in regard to eating out) very much questioning w

Asia Summary and Highlights 22 May
Freemium Article

May 22, 2024 5:45 AM UTC

RBNZ kept rates at 5.5% but suggest rates higher for longer
Japan April Exports +8.3% y/y and Imports +8.3%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 22nd
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 5:44 AM UTC

NZD jumped on RBNZ's upward OCR revision
GBP risks slightly on the downside on UK CPI
The USD could benefit from more hawkish FOMC minutes