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May 16, 2025

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Moody's downgrades US debt as long-standing fiscal concerns mount
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 11:42 PM UTC

Moody’s downgraded US debt to AA1 from AAA after Friday’s close. The decision appears due to continued lack of action on the budget deficit rather that being triggered by any specific event, and brings Moody’s into line with S and P and Fitch. However the timing is awkward for markets, with th

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Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab

North American Summary and Highlights 16 May
Freemium Article

May 16, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger, particularly after Michigan CSI data showed a rise in inflation expectations. 

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Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 6:44 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% rise in April’s core PCE price index, even softer than a 0.2% core CPI, though risk of a boost from tariffs persists in the coming months. We expect modest 0.3% gains in personal income and spending, which would imply gains of 0.2% in real terms, still some way off a recessionary

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for a test higher
Freemium Article

May 16, 2025 3:27 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance at 1.4000

FX Weekly Strategy: May 19th - 23rd
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 3:07 PM UTC

Focus on PMIs, USD needs stronger data to extend recovery
AUD has upside potential on RBA
EUR/GP downside risks look very limited below 0.84.

U.S. May Preliminary Michigan CSI - Is the fall a sign that prices are now accelerating?
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

May’s Preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.8 is, despite the equity recovery, surprisingly weaker than April’s final of 52.2, though the 50.8 reading matches exactly the preliminary May outcome, though most responses were received before the US-China trade de-escalation. This could be a sign that afte

USD flows: Michigan sentiemnt shows further decline in confidence, rise in inflaiton expectations
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

Disappointign University of Michigan survey ought to be negative for risk and the USD, despite initial reaction

Chart USD/RUB Update: Limited tests higher - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 80.0000

Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion support at 0.6400

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 1:42 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 162.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for a test below 145.00
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Anticipated tests lower have reached congestion support at 145.00

U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Single family slippage suggests trend starting to slip
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

April housing starts are in line with expectations, up 1.6% to 1361k, but permits are weaker than expected, down 4.7% to 1412k. With the starts rise fully due to the volatile multiples sector and the permits fall broad based this is a weaker than expected report.

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated test higher

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Room for still lower
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 11:34 AM UTC

April losses have reached congestion support at 18.0000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Minor tests higher have given way to a drift lower to congestion support at 1.5600

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Drifting lower
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 10:20 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 101.00

Europe Summary and Highlights 16 May
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 10:20 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through a quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets May 16
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 10:14 AM UTC

More rangy trading looking likely near term

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Big EM’s: Cyclical Tariff Hit V Structural Drivers
Freemium Article

May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

China, India and Brazil are all seeing cyclical slowdown for varying reasons, with China likely to be hardest hit by adverse net exports due to Trump’s tariff wars. Though financial repression in China can allow further fiscal stimulus, the household sector and residential property investment are

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

China and UK Precedents for Trump Tariffs
U.S./China Trade Truce Reduce Downside and Extra Stimulus Prospects
India Redraws the Rules
U.S. April CPI Shows Little tariff pass-through so far
UK Q1 GDP Jumps But Erratic and Overstating Activity

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 9:18 AM UTC

US data unlikely to move markets
Japanese GDP has little impact
AUD weakness looks overdone

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have tested below congestion around 0.9350 to reach 0.9335

Chart USD/CHF Update: Focus on 0.8300
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 0.8325