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March 26, 2025

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 March
Freemium Article

March 26, 2025 5:13 AM UTC

Australian February monthly CPI 2.4% y/y 
Japan February Services Producer Price Index +3% y/y

USD/JPY flows: Same Old Ueda
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March 26, 2025 4:51 AM UTC

Japan February Services Producer Price Index +3% y/y

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending gains, room to 7.2850 resistance
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March 26, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

 Extending break above the 7.2700 resistance to open up room for extension to target 7.2850

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 26th
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March 26, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

UK CPI and fiscal statement the focus
GBP risks mainly on the downside
USD likely to remains under pressure against the JPY
Swedish data needs to be strong to justify recent SEK strength

AUD/USD flows: Monthly CPI Stays Within Target Range
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 2:59 AM UTC

Australian February monthly CPI 2.4% y/y 

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Settled back in consolidation from 16657, fresh year high
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March 26, 2025 2:57 AM UTC

Failed to sustain break to fresh high at 16657 as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/THB Update: Limited above 34.00 level
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March 26, 2025 2:50 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 34.00 level as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating test of 1472.00 resistance
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March 26, 2025 2:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices settled back in consolidation from test of the 1472.00, February high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating, room for higher
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March 26, 2025 2:30 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3400 level but positive daily studies suggest scope for break here to further extend bounce from 1.3300 level

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited pullback
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March 26, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.2885 as prices consolidate pullback from the 1.3000 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
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March 26, 2025 1:54 AM UTC

Leaning lower on break of the 1.0800 level as prices extend pullback from the 1.0950 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
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March 26, 2025 1:36 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 162.00 level following rejection at the 163.00 congestion

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 151.00
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March 26, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 151.00 level to consolidate at the 150.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extend consolidation above .5700
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March 26, 2025 12:43 AM UTC

Little change, as prices drift narrowly above the .5710 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Gains still limited
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March 26, 2025 12:23 AM UTC

Edging higher from the .6260/50 congestion area to retest resistance at the .6300/30 area

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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March 26, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market seems to be cheering on potentially less tariff from the U.S.. The biggest winners are KRW by 0.41%, followed by SGD 0.19% and CNY 0.03%; while the largest losers are PHP 0.48%, IDR & THB 0.24%, INR & TWD 0.15%, CNH

March 25, 2025

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BCB Minutes: Caution Rather than Optimism
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March 25, 2025 10:51 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) raised the policy rate by 100bps to 14.25% amid signs of economic deceleration, including slower growth, job creation, and consumption. The BCB highlighted external uncertainties, such as U.S. trade policy, and domestic challenges with rising inflation. It emphasized

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 26th
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March 25, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

UK CPI and fiscal statement the focus
GBP risks mainly on the downside
USD likely to remains under pressure against the JPY
Swedish data needs to be strong to justify recent SEK strength

North American Summary and Highlights 25 March
Freemium Article

March 25, 2025 7:59 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally weaker, but saw its lows before a fall in US consumer confidence. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

March 25, 2025 4:34 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend choppy trade around support at 1.4300

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - To slip back below neutral
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March 25, 2025 3:58 PM UTC

We expect a March 1SM manufacturing index of 49.0, slipping back below neutral for the first time in three months, after positive readings of 50.3 in February and 50.9 in January.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, March 26th
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March 25, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

UK CPI and fiscal statement the focus
GBP risks mainly on the downside
USD likely to remains under pressure against the JPY
Swedish data needs to be strong to justify recent SEK strength

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - Regional surveys suggest weakness
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March 25, 2025 3:17 PM UTC

We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to a 7-month low of 52.0 from 53.5, contrasting a stronger S and P Services PMI.  

Chart AUD/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
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March 25, 2025 2:41 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a break higher

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Leaning lower
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March 25, 2025 2:35 PM UTC

The anticipated test higher has met expected selling interest just beneath resistance at 163.20

U.S. March Consumer Confidence - Future expectations weakest since 2013
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March 25, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.

USD flows: USD staying soft as confidence declines further
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March 25, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

USD weaker in early US and the lower than expected Conference Board consumer confidence index should sustain the weaker tone. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sharp reversal from 151.00/25
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March 25, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 150.00 has been pushed back from resistance at the 151.00 break level

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Lower in range
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March 25, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath resistance at the 104.39 high of 6 March is giving way to a pullback

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German & EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31/Apr 1): Headline Edges Lower Again With Friendlier Services Messages?
Freemium Article

March 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

February HICP inflation numbers did deliver better news and broadly and less marginally so after revisions with the headline dropping 0.2 ppt to an as-expected 2.3%.  This ended a run of three successive rises and came about despite a rise in food inflation.  Regardless, the core also eased 0.1 pp

U.S. Fed's Kugler - Slower growth, rising inflation, steady policy
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March 25, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

Fed Governor Kugler sees worrying signals in data and backs steady policy for some time.

Chart USD/RUB Update: Consolidating - background studies negative
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March 25, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

The bounce from the 81.0300 current year low of 18 March is giving way to consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 85.0000

Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain
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March 25, 2025 12:10 PM UTC

We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Under pressure
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March 25, 2025 11:59 AM UTC

Cautious trade within the broad 4.1800 - 4.2000 range has given way to a sharp break lower

Psychology for major markets March 25th
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March 25, 2025 11:21 AM UTC

USD correcting a little lower after Monday rally

Europe Summary and Highlights 25 March
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March 25, 2025 11:18 AM UTC

The USD was generally weaker through the European morning. 

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Range extension - studies under pressure
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March 25, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 18.0465 - 18.3000 range

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending March losses
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March 25, 2025 10:48 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a sharp break lower to support at the 1.5430 Fibonacci retracement

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Western Europe Outlook: Price Pressures - Puzzling or Possibly Persistent!
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March 25, 2025 10:47 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we continue to retain our below-consensus GDP picture for this year, with growth actually downgraded and with downside risks that may actually be both increasing and materializing. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 75 bp and maybe faster and into 202

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment
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March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

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Japan Outlook: Inflation Sustainably Above 2%?
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March 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

·         Private consumption will have a modest growth in 2025 along the gradual change in business price/wage setting behavior before slowing to average in 2026. Wage hike in 2025 looks to be at least on par with 2024 after early result of the spring wage negotiation. SMEs are going to be

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 25th
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 9:58 AM UTC

USD and equity recovery looks partly technical
Conference Board consumer confidence could determine if rally extends on Tuesday
EUR will be focused on IFO, which looks low relative to the PMI
JPY weakness looks excessive but unlikely to turn while equities gain

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DM Rates Outlook: Policy Divergence
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 •    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious  Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields can be helped by this easing and see a move down through 2025.  However, the budget deficit will likely be 6.5-7.0%

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower
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March 25, 2025 9:18 AM UTC

The break below 0.9550 has reached 0.9525

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
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March 25, 2025 9:07 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

EUR flows: EUR steady as IFO rises in line with consensus
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March 25, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

IFO in line with consensus but yield spreads still suggests EUR/USD could drift lower

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DM FX Outlook: USD under pressure as Trump policies disappoint
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March 25, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The market had expected the Trump presidency to see further fiscal expansion and consequent tight Fed policy and high US yields. But the combination of less tax cuts than previously expected and more aggressive tariff increases have led to reduced expectations for US grow

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating - room for a test lower
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 8:44 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation above congestion support at 0.8350

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 8:36 AM UTC

Cautious trade above 1.0800 is giving way to a break

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - strong support at 1.2860
Freemium Article

March 25, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious