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FX Weekly Strategy: Sep 22nd-26th
September 19, 2025 2:53 PM UTC
Limited impact likely from S&P PMIs, though weaker US numbers seen
JPY may manage a small recovery, but turn in equities needed to reverse weak trend
SEK could be vulnerable to Riksbank rate cut
Little chance of SNB action, but EUR/CHF may have found a near term base
Canada July retail sales weak but August seen stronger
September 19, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
Canadian retail sales at -0.8% in July are spot on the preliminary estimate, something that is far from always being the case. The preliminary estimate for August is for a 1.0% increase, which suggests the Canadian economy is not falling sharply in Q3 after export-led slippage in GDP in Q2.
China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?
September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
• Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports. A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%
