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FX Weekly Strategy: July 15th-19th
Paying Article

July 15, 2024 9:03 AM UTC

JPY the main focus after sharp gains Thursday and Friday
Key levels approaching with talk of intervention
EUR risks may be on the downside on ECB meeting
GBP strength could be challenged by UK data

U.S. Initial Claims rebound from a dip but July Philly Fed looks positive
Paying Article

July 18, 2024 1:01 PM UTC

Initial claims at 243k have bounced to the highest level since a matching number five weeks ago from last week’s 223k which was a six week low, restoring signs of labor market slowing. However July’s Philly Fed manufacturing index at 13.9 versus 1.3 is stronger than expected and backs some posit

AUD, JPY flows: AUD remains under pressure, JPY firm
Paying Article

July 23, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

AUD/JPY declining as regional risk sentiment remains weak.

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France in the Fiscal Firing Line
Freemium Article

July 16, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

EU finance ministers gather in Brussels today in a regular meeting but this time will discuss excessive fiscal deficits in various member countries, in particular, Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary and Poland.  It is unclear just how specific any criticisms will be either in pointing out particular c

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China: Retail Sales Drags Q2 GDP
Paying Article

July 15, 2024 7:33 AM UTC

We are revising down our 2024 GDP forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, both due to the weaker than expected Q2 GDP figure but also the weak underlying momentum of consumption.  Some further targeted policy measures are likely in the coming months, but will struggle to lift economic momentum.

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EZ and UK Government Bonds: Decoupling From the U.S.?
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 9:37 AM UTC

Different economic and inflation dynamics, plus no constraint from trade weighted exchange rates, means that the ECB and BOE can cut irrespective of the Fed in the coming quarters.  This can see 2yr yields decline, though less so in Germany where a 2.5% ECB depo rate is already discounted.  10yr y

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U.S. June CPI - Very soft, even if a few components look erratic
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

June CPI is even weaker than expected, down by 0.1% overall and up by only 0.1% ex food and energy, with the core increase before rounding only 0.065%, a sign that inflationary pressures have faded significantly since the bounce at the start of the year. Initial claims at 222k from 239k suggest the

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 10th
Paying Article

July 10, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

Kiwi Sunk on RBNZ's Dovish Tilt
NOK upside favoured if CPI data is at or above consensus
USD generally a little vulnerable
EUR limited by political uncertainty
JPY upside potential needs a trigger for it to be realised

North American Summary and Highlights 26 July
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - The USD ended little change. USD/JPY did advance in Europe, but corrected lower after subdued US core PCE price data. 

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ISM Services - Unlikely to match strong S&P Services PMI
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 6:53 PM UTC

We expect July’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.0 after slipping to 48.2, its lowest since the pandemic in May 2020. However the index will remain a lot weaker than the S and P services PMI, which in July saw a third straight rise to 56.0, to its highest since March 2022. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation beneath 2024 high - background is positive
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 4:06 PM UTC

Little change, as CAD weakness stabilises and prompts further consolidation around the 1.3845 monthly high of 16 April

Preview: Due August 6 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to narrow on goods
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 3:40 PM UTC

We expect June’s trade deficit to slip to $73.4bn from $75.1bn, which would be the first narrowing since March. We expect exports to rise by 1.6% after a 0.7% May decline and imports to rise by 0.7% after falling by 0.3% in May.

Argentina: Making Sense of the Three Stages Plan
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:51 PM UTC

The Central Bank of Argentina's plan for macroeconomic stabilization includes three stages: an orthodox fiscal exit, establishing an orthodox monetary framework, and prudently lifting FX controls. The fiscal deficit reduction has helped end the monetization of the deficit, while transitioning to a c

FX Weekly Strategy: July 29th- August 2nd
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:45 PM UTC

BoJ meeting may lead to short lived JPY dip
JPY still likely to rise strongly through the year
GBP risks on the downside on MPC meeting
USD might blip briefly higher after FOMC

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FOMC Preview for July 31: Opening the Door for Data-Dependent Easing
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on July 31 and while a change in rates remains unlikely, the FOMC is likely to signal that easing is possible if data before the next meeting on September 18 provides further evidence of falling inflationary pressure. This will see changes to the wording of the statement,

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CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited gains
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

The bounce from support within congestion around 0.6500 and the 0.6530 Fibonacci retracement is extending

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies continue to point lower
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

Volatile trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 168.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating recent gains - studies under pressure
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Little change, as oversold daily stochastics prompt cautious trade following recent volatility

USD flows: little impact from data
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

PCE prices marginally hgiher than expected but no impact seen. Focus shifts to next week's central bank meetings

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U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices acceptably subdued, Income underperforming Spending
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:03 PM UTC

June’s personal income and spending report is largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP detail. In Q2 income surprised on the downside but spending and PCE prices surprised on the upside. For prices and spending the Q2 surprise came more in back month revisions than June data. For income th

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 104.50

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 11:49 AM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Smart pullback from 18.5000
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 11:05 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of congestion resistance at 18.5000 has given way to a deeper pullback

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Balanced beneath fresh year highs - background studies positive
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 10:20 AM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation 

European Summary and Highlights 26 July
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 10:13 AM UTC

USD/JPY gained around 60 pips to 154.20 through the European morning as equity markets extended the recovery that started on Thursday afternoon.

Psychology for major markets July 26th
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Steadier picture as risk appetite stabilises

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
China Surprise 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate Cut
US Q2 GDP exceeds expectations
The Turn in USD/JPY 
UK Household Wealth and the Pension Predicament

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 26th
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
More neutral market Friday after Tokyo CPI comes in in line with consensus

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 8:47 AM UTC

The break below 0.9550 has bounced smartly from 0.9520~

Chart USD/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

The test of support at congestion around 0.8800 and the 0.8780 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a minor bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

The break above 0.8430 is meeting anticipated selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 0.8450

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - bias remains lower
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and oversold daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Still firm above 1.1050/30 support
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

Back to consolidate at the 1.1100 level following bounce from the 1.1050/1.1030 support 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Short-term reactions before July losses continue
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 7:34 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 1.2845, where rising intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics are prompting short-term reactions

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Corrective bounce from 195.85 low
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

Turned back up from the 195.85 low to consolidate above the 197.20 support

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steadier markets as risk stabilises
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Riskier currencies edging higher, JPY stable as risk stabilises and Japan Tokyo CPI comes in in line with expectations.

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Bounce from 99.20 low to retrace July losses
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Break of the 100.00 level saw stab to 99.20 low ahead of rebound as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/CNH Update: Back in consolidation above 7.2340 support
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

Back in consolidation above the 7.2340 support after the sharp spike towards the 7.2000 level

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending gains, but bullish momentum slows
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 5:09 AM UTC

Still pressuring the upside to extend gains to fresh all-time high at the 83.7250

Asia Summary and Highlights 26 July
Freemium Article

July 26, 2024 5:09 AM UTC

Tokyo July Headline CPI 2.2% y/y, ex fresh food 2.2% and ex fresh food & energy 1.5%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 26th
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 4:31 AM UTC

FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Moderates
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 4:08 AM UTC

Tokyo July Headline CPI 2.2% y/y, ex fresh food 2.2% and ex fresh food & energy 1.5%

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending corrective gains, lower later
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 3:21 AM UTC

Higher to extend gains from the 16100/16094 congestion and low of last week 

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating, scope for pullback to retest 35.85/35.82 lows
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 3:13 AM UTC

Little change, with prices locked in consolidation below the 36.40 resistance 

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending consolidation below 1390.00/1395.00 resistance
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:26 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1390.00/1395.00 resistance

Chart USD/SGD Update: Room for deeper pullback from the 1.3460/77 resistance
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:20 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.3460/1.3477 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Still room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:12 AM UTC

  Pressure remains on the downside with pullback from the 1.3045 high reaching the 1.2860/50 congestion area

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:57 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 1.0825 low but the downside still not firm

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Turned up to consolidate above the 166.00 level
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 1:31 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 166.00 level following rebound from the 165.35/164.00 support