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Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
October 31, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50.
Canada August GDP - Weak but Q3 looking in line with BoC forecast
October 31, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP with a 0.3% decline is an unusually large miss from the preliminary estimate for unchanged, though July was revised up to a 0.3% increase from 0.2%. September’s preliminary estimate is for a rise of 0.1%, only partially correcting August’s decline.
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?
October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC
With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%. The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 31st
October 31, 2025 9:56 AM UTC
EUR still biased lower despite solid data and more upbeat ECB
JPY weakness at extremes but little to halt the trend
FX intervention possible but without it only a turn in equities likely to trigger JPY recovery
Equities likely a driver of FX after tech results