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U.S. 10yr Yields Fiscal Worries
Paying Article

December 31, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

•    As 2025 progresses the budget bill is likely to cement prospects of an 8-9% budget deficit in the U.S. for years to come.  This will likely hurt Treasuries most just before the budget deficit expands quarterly Treasury issuance in Q4 2025/Q1 2026.  Worse we have a non-consensus call of

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China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
Paying Article

December 17, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

  We do see a package of stimulative fiscal policy measures for 2025 including Yuan1-3trn infrastructure spending; Yuan1trn funds to buy completed homes for affordable housing and Yuan1trn capital injection to the big six state banks. Some modest measures for low-income households and to boost soci

Chart USD/RUB Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 12:35 PM UTC

Consolidation around support at 102.00 is giving way to a minor bounce

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Pressuring 4.2750
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 12:26 PM UTC

Little change

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating test of the 19.2400 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 11:58 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 19.0000 has extended September gains towards strong resistance at the 19.2400 Fibonacci retracement

Psychology for major markets January 13th
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 11:20 AM UTC

USD at high levels, needs strong employment report to sustain them

Europe Summary and Highlights 13 January
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

The USD was slightly stronger against the EUR and GBP through the European morning, but little changed elsewhere.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending December losses
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated losses

FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400 is giving way to the anticipated test lower

Chart USD/CHF Update: Choppy at local highs
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 9:18 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.9150 is meeting selling interest around 0.9188

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:56 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to anticipated gains

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for a test below the 1.0200 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated losses

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure, but studies oversold
Freemium Article

January 13, 2025 8:32 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above 1.2300 has been pushed back from beneath the 1.2352 weekly low of 2 January

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e January 7th
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Net short CAD position remains high, NZD shorts also extended

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Leaning lower from 1.1090/1.1100 highs
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade below the 1.1090/1.1100 resistance

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Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

   A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view.  Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response.  A huge AI mis

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD, JPY former, AUD looks oversold
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

USD and JPY benefit as equities soften but equity weakness is mild and AUD looks undervalued

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

Sharply lower to extend break of the 94.18/93.50 support last week through the 192.00 congestion

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Under pressure, room to 96.00/95.52 support
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 7:37 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend losses through the 97.00 level following rejection from the 99.00/99.42 resistance last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating below 7.3680/7.3700 highs
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation within a narrow range below strong resistance at the 7.3680/7.3700 highs

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending sharp gains
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 6:01 AM UTC

Sharp gapped up opening above the 86.0000 figure has seen extension to reach fresh all-time high at 86.4000

Chart USD/MYR Update: Consolidating, room for higher later
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 5:15 AM UTC

Break above the 4.4880 resistance has seen gains to retest the 4.5135/4.4165 highs

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 January
Freemium Article

January 13, 2025 4:26 AM UTC

USD up, risk sours

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 13th-17th
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 3:42 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 16059 low and break the 16259 resistance opens up the 16304 high of December to retest

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating test of 34.79 resistance, scope for break
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 3:26 AM UTC

Break above the 34.68 extending gains to retest the 34.79 resistance

USD/JPY flows: Holiday Gains
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 3:18 AM UTC

JPY gains on a Japanese holiday

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending bounce from 1446.00 support
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 3:13 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1446.00 support through the 1466.00 resistance see pressure returning to the 1474.00/1478.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Pressuring 1.3750/65 resistance
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 2:50 AM UTC

Break to fresh high above 1.3730 has seen extension to retest the 1.3750/1.3765, October 2023 year highs

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 2:12 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break to fresh low see prices weighing on the 1.2200/1.2187 support

AUD/USD flows: Private Inflation Data Higher
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 1:58 AM UTC

Australian December private inflation data 0.6% m/m & 2.6% y/y

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 1:56 AM UTC

Prices remain under pressure to reach fresh low at 1.0211 on Friday

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Under pressure, 160.90 support within reach
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 1:23 AM UTC

Losses through the 162.00 level extend drop from the 164.55 high to reach 161.21 low on Friday

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy around the 158.00 level
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 1:02 AM UTC

Settling back from test of the 158.85 resistance

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending losses, focus on .5512/.5470 lows
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 12:44 AM UTC

Prices remain under pressure and break of the .5565 support further extend losses from the September high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for lower to .6100 next
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 12:29 AM UTC

Saw break of the .6170 support on Friday to reach fresh low at .6140

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the USD only rebound fiercely after the stronger than expected U.S. NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.24%, THB 0.14%, MYR 0.12% and IDR by 0.09%; the largest loser are KRW by 0.79%, SGD 0.23%, INR 0.13%, CNH 0.1&, TWD 0.08%, HKD

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 13th-17th
Paying Article

January 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 13th-17th
Paying Article

January 12, 2025 6:00 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

North American Summary and Highlights 10 January
Freemium Article

January 10, 2025 8:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced on a stronger than expected non-farm payroll, though with equities struggling on a rise in Michigan CSI inflation expectations, gains in USD/JPY failed to hold. 

Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Industrial Production - Bounce in aircraft to lead rise
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 5:32 PM UTC

We expect gains of 0.5% in both industrial production and manufacturing output in December, likely to be led by a rebound in aircraft after three straight declines caused by a strike at Boeing. The strike as resolved in early November but output failed to recover in that month, making a bounce due.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Edging higher in range
Freemium Article

January 10, 2025 5:03 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt consolidation above support at 1.4400

FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative

Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC

We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.

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Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Dovish tone not representative of FOMC majority
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 3:41 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee is sounding more dovish than most, but will have a vote in 2025.

USD, JPY flows: USD weaker as equities fall
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Rising inflation expectations in Universiyt of Michigan survey support higher yields and weight on equities, supporting the JPY

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UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.  As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,

U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.