View:
U.S. 10yr Yields Fiscal Worries
December 31, 2024 8:15 AM UTC
• As 2025 progresses the budget bill is likely to cement prospects of an 8-9% budget deficit in the U.S. for years to come. This will likely hurt Treasuries most just before the budget deficit expands quarterly Treasury issuance in Q4 2025/Q1 2026. Worse we have a non-consensus call of
China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
December 17, 2024 11:00 AM UTC
We do see a package of stimulative fiscal policy measures for 2025 including Yuan1-3trn infrastructure spending; Yuan1trn funds to buy completed homes for affordable housing and Yuan1trn capital injection to the big six state banks. Some modest measures for low-income households and to boost soci
FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
January 13, 2025 9:46 AM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view. Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response. A huge AI mis
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 13th-17th
January 13, 2025 4:00 AM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
January 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the USD only rebound fiercely after the stronger than expected U.S. NFP. The biggest winners are PHP by 0.24%, THB 0.14%, MYR 0.12% and IDR by 0.09%; the largest loser are KRW by 0.79%, SGD 0.23%, INR 0.13%, CNH 0.1&, TWD 0.08%, HKD
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 13th-17th
January 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 13th-17th
January 12, 2025 6:00 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Industrial Production - Bounce in aircraft to lead rise
January 10, 2025 5:32 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.5% in both industrial production and manufacturing output in December, likely to be led by a rebound in aircraft after three straight declines caused by a strike at Boeing. The strike as resolved in early November but output failed to recover in that month, making a bounce due.
FX Weekly Strategy: January 13th-17th
January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
Hard for USD/JPY to extend higher from current levels
US equities and yields struggling to rise further in concert
EUR/USD downside also limited as yield spreads move in EUR’s favour
GBP has more potential downside with expectations of BoE cuts too conservative
Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
January 10, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.
Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue
UK GDP Preview (Jan 16): Continued Weakness?
January 10, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
The last set of GDP data add to questions about the UK’s economy’s apparent solidity, if not strength, as seen in sizeable q/q gains in the first two quarters of the year of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. As we envisaged, October saw a second successive m/m drop of 0.1%, well below expectations,
U.S. January Michigan CSI - Worrying jump in inflation expectations
January 10, 2025 3:13 PM UTC
January’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 73.2 is slightly down from December’s 74.0 and maintains December’s mix of rising current conditions and falling expectations. Most significantly, expectations for inflation have seen a significant bounce which will worry the FOMC.