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Chart USD/MXN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

March 20, 2024 5:30 PM UTC

The bounce from the 16.6450 current year low of 14 March has met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 17.0000

U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Strong rise, as was seen in February 2023
Paying Article

March 21, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

February existing home sales with a sharp 9.5% increase to 4.38m are sharply above expectations. A similar rise in February 2023 was not sustained meaning some caution is necessary though should the Fed deliver on easing expectations, a solid housing market would probably be seen.

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China: No PBOC MTF Cut and Protesting Low Government Bond Yields
Paying Article

March 15, 2024 8:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The PBOC decided not to cut the Medium-Term Facility (MTF) rate, but surprised by also withdrawing liquidity in what looks like a protest at the recent decline in government bond yields.  A 10bps MTF cut should still arrive in Q2, but later rather than sooner.  

North American Summary and Highlights 12 Apr
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally strong as equities fell on fears of escalating conflict in the in Middle East.  

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Reason to think rates will stay higher for longer
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:40 PM UTC

Hawkish remarks from Schmid are probably the most notable of today's Fed talk, with Collins, Goolsbee and Bostic all maintaining the tone of recent comments.

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U.S. PCE Prices, Residual Seasonality and the Fed Outlook
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:22 PM UTC

Strength in Q1 inflation data contrasts the encouraging subdued data seen in the second half of 2023, and it looks likely there is some residual seasonality in the data even after seasonal adjustments. The underlying picture is still probably in a gradual downtrend, which should become clear later t

Chart USD/MXN Update: Smart bounce from 9-year lows
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached 9-year lows at 16.2600

FX Weekly Strategy: April 15th-19th
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

GBP in focus on labour market and CPI data
Scope for a more dovish tone to emerge if earnings data soften further
EUR/USD downside looks more restricted from here
JPY likely to have bottomed out on the crosses

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 3:21 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to fresh gains in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

U.S. April Michigan CSI - Lower but inflation expectations rise
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 2:13 PM UTC

April’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 77.9 is down from March’s 79.4 but still above February’s 76.5 and generally healthy. Inflation expectations moved higher, the 1-year view to 3.1% from 2.9% and the 5-10 year view to 3.0% from 2.8%, its highest since November.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room for still higher
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:20 PM UTC

No change to the bullish tone, with late-December gains extending to post fresh 2024 year highs

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Preview: Due April 15 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Up again on the month but weaker in Q1
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in March retail sales, which after a 0.6% February increase would not fully erase January’s 1.1% decline that was blamed on bad weather. Ex autos however we expect a rise of 0.5%, which after a 0.3% February increase would complete a reversal of a 0.8% decline in January.

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot

Chart USD/RUB Update: Edging higher - studies improving
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:53 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a test higher to the 93.5575 monthly high of 22 March

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Balanced at 4-year lows - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:33 AM UTC

The anticipated break below the 4.2750 multi-year Fibonacci retracement has reached reached congestion support at 4.2500

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a run towards strong resistance at 19.0000 - 19.1050
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

 Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation around congestion support at 18.7500

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:54 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

European Summary and Highlights 12 Apr
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:35 AM UTC

The EUR fell back across the board through the European morning, with EUR/USD losing half a figure to trade at new lows for the year below 1.0660.

Psychology for major markets Apr 12
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:22 AM UTC

USD sentiment strong with new highs for the year seen against the EUR, JPY and GBP

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. CPI Stronger than Estimated
Tone of March FOMC Minutes is Not Hawkish but Recent Speakers' Rhetoric Suggest Otherwise
And see USD/JPY Rose To Another High
RBNZ Kept Rates on Hold
UK GDP Shows Less Fragile Recovery

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 12th
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP downside risk on UK GDP
SEK favoured as CPI set to pop higher
USD to maintain recent strength

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a EUR-driven pullback

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a EUR-driven pullback

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced at 2024 highs - daily studies tracking higher
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:13 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 0.8547/50 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 8:03 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/JPY Update: Balanced at 34 year highs - studies rising
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:49 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending late-December losses
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh losses

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for deeper losses
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on strong support at 1.2500/18

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UK GDP Review: Less Fragile Recovery to Fuel BoE Hawks?
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:50 AM UTC

The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is hardly much better with GDP growth only modestly positive.  Admittedly, coming in as largely expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February accentuating the upgraded 0.

GBP, SEK flows: GBP firmer, SEK weaker after data
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

GBP gaining on better than expected GDP data, while soft Swedish CPI is pushing SEK lower. But neither move is likely to extend far.

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 Apr
Freemium Article

April 12, 2024 4:40 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Suzuki says won't rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 11th
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 4:31 AM UTC

GBP downside risk on UK GDP
SEK favoured as CPI set to pop higher
USD to maintain recent strength

USD/JPY flows: The Usual Jawboning
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 4:30 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Suzuki won't rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback continue to be strong after digesting the U.S CPI report. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.68%, followed by TWD and THB 0.65%, CNH 0.04%, HKD 0.03% and PHP 0.02%; the only winners are CNH 0.09% and SGD 0.05%.
USD/CNH is

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 11th
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP downside risk on UK GDP
SEK favoured as CPI set to pop higher
USD to maintain recent strength

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Russian Economy Expands by a Strong 7.7% YoY in February
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 7:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 7.7% YoY in February after expanding by 4.6% in January, owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We foresee R

North American Summary and Highlights 11 Apr
Freemium Article

April 11, 2024 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - The EUR took a modest hit from the ECB but the USD ended on balance little changed.  

U.S. Fed's Collins - Recent data reduce case for near term easing
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Chart USD/SGD Update: Pressuring 1.3530 - daily studies edging higher
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 3:49 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies turn near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating gains - potential for later continuation towards strong resistance at 7.2820
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 3:43 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies prompt consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 7.2600

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending pressure on critical resistance at 1.3700/20
Freemium Article

April 11, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies turn near-term sentiment cautious

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 11th
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

GBP downside risk on UK GDP
SEK favoured as CPI set to pop higher
USD to maintain recent strength

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Recent inflation data don't raise confidence
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

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ECB Review: ECB Hums Easing Tune for June
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 1:58 PM UTC

Surprising hardly anyone, the ECB is preparing to cut official rates, after what are now five successive stable policy decisions. It explicitly suggested that it could be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction, a policy hint backed up by dropping its previous rhetoric

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Fresh year high - daily studies improving
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

The sharp run from 105.00 has posted a fresh year high at 105.37

U.S. Fed's Williams - Still looking for gradual inflation decline to persist, with bumps
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

U.S. March PPI - Broadly subdued, if still stronger than in late 2023
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

March PPI comes as some relief after the strong CPI, rising by a modest 0.2% overall and in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. Initial claims at 211k have confirmed last week’s above trend 222k outcome to be a blip with the labor market still looking strong.

EUR flows: EUR edging lower post ECB
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

EUR lower post ECB, especially against the CHF, but little reaction in EUR yields

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Smart USD-driven reversal, but strong resistance at 19.0000 - 19.1050
Paying Article

April 11, 2024 12:25 PM UTC

Asterisk denotes strength of level
13:10 BST - Consolidation following the test of critical support at the 18.4100 Fibonacci retracement ahs given way to a sharp USD-driven bounce, with prices currently trading above 18.7500. Intraday studies are unwinding overbought areas, suggesting consolidation a