View:

...
China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC

      Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production.  However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects.  Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe

...
U.S. Outlook: Fed Focus Turning To Downside Risks
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of labor market slowing which poses downside risks to the still impressive resilience of consumer spending, which has sustained healthy GDP growth through Q2 2024. We expect GDP growth below potential in the second half of 2024 and the first half of

Chartbook: DAX Chart: Minor pullback giving way to further range-extension. Background studies improving
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion around 18000 has bounced from support at 17000

...
China: Weak August Data
Freemium Article

September 16, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

China August data was worse than expected and confirms the weak trend in H2, with retail sales a real worry. The government risks missing the 5% growth target for 2024 and targeted fiscal policy moves are likely, but need to be implemented quickly.  10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate is also

...
Mexico: Controversial Judicial Reform is Approved by the Congress
Freemium Article

September 13, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

The Mexican Senate approved a controversial judicial reform proposed by President López Obrador's MORENA party. The reform calls for the election of all 7,000 federal judges, with current judges being dismissed. Supreme Court justices will also be reduced and replaced by elections in 2025. Concerns

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited gains - background under pressure
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

Consolidation above congestion support at 1.4950 has given way to a bounce back to congestion resistance at 1.5000

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 5.4000

Chart USD/MXN Update: Poised for deeper losses
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 19.5000 is extending

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish

October 4, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3550 has reached 1.3590

Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for still lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

No change to the bearish tone

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Jobs report superb, inflation might undershoot target
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Pushing higher in JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp JPY-driven bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement to reach 1.0960

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains in USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

Cautious trade above 146.00 has given way to a sharp USD- and JPY-driven rally

U.S. September Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

...
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for still higher
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 102.00 has given way to a sharp break higher

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

Chart USD/TRY Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

No significant change

Chart USD/RUB Update: Further consolidation - background studies improving
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 11:38 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 96.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Focus on 4.3300 in PLN-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 4.3000 has been seen

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating gains
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 17.5000 has met selling interest beneath resistance at the 17.5930 monthly low of 30 August

Psychology for major markets October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD staying fiirm, employment report likely to be supportive 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

Little change, as overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 October
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 9:52 AM UTC

USD/JPY edged up through the European morning session, gaining around 30 pips to 146.40 and correcting some of the declines seen in Asia overnight.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

...
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:17 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 0.8550

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Sharp gains not sustained
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 8:03 AM UTC

The anticipated GBP-driven test above 0.8400/03 has met expected selling interest around congestion resistance at 0.8425

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced above 1.0980/00 - studies under pressure
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

The anticipated test lower has met buying interest above strong support at the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.1000

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Under pressure, August/September lows at risk
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

Rejection from the 11.8000 level see pressure returning to the downside to reach the 11.6500 support

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion at 1.3100 has met buying interest around 1.3090

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Edging lower from the 101.25 high
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the 100.80 resistance and rejection from the 101.25 high see pullback to the 100.00 level

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Under pressure from the 195.15/195.95 highs
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

Turning lower in consolidation from the 195.15/195.95 highs to pressure congestion at the 192.00 level

USD, JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n helped by Ishiba comments
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

JPY recovers helped by Ishiba announcing economic package to escape deflation, but quiet market likely ahead of the US employment report.

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending gains - strong resistance at 7.0700/7.0840 area
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

 Extending gains from the low of last week towards strong resistance at the 7.0700/7.0840, lows of August

Chart USD/INR Update: Poised for retest of 83.9850, all-time high
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

Break above the 83.9150 resistance has seen extension to reach 83.9700 high and poised for retest of the 83.9850, all-time high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:13 AM UTC

Sharply higher to extend break above the 15300 and 15360 resistance to reach the 15529 high

Chart USD/KRW Update: Within reach of the 1340.00 resistance
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

Break above the 1330.00 congestion see room for retest of strong resistance at the 1340.00 high of last week

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending gains, focus on the 1.3000 figure
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:34 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and break above 1.2950 resistance see scope to target the 1.3000 figure

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.3100 level, room for lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3100 level as prices unwind oversold intraday studies 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.1025/00 support
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:37 AM UTC

Extending sharp pullback from the 1.1200/14 high to retest support at the 1.1025/00, September lows

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating at 162.00 level, room for higher later
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:55 AM UTC

Settled back from the 162.50 high to consolidate gains from the 158.00 low

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating retest of 147.21, September high
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Break above the 146.00 level has seen extension to retest the 147.21, September high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Weighing on .6222/00 support
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:32 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the .6250 support see room to further extend losses from the .6370/80 highs

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:16 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and clear break of the .6870 support see room to extend pullback from the .6942 high