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2024 Q4 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
February 26, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agenc
FX Weekly Strategy: March 24th-28th
March 21, 2025 4:05 PM UTC
JPY still has potential for gains unless market sentiment improves
EUR may get some support from PMIs
US PMI, trade and confidence data has potential for more impact than usual
GBP may be vulnerable to CPI and fiscal update
AUD tone has weakened but big picture still looks positive
As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr
Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher
March 21, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.
Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December
March 21, 2025 12:43 PM UTC
Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer
Trump Product and Reciprocal Tariffs
March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news. Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment. Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
March 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the global market remains choppy after round of European central banks decision. The biggest winners are IDR by 0.3%, followed by MYR 0.24%, PHP 0.13%, TWD 0.1% and INR 0.09%; while the largest losers are SGD 0.31%, CNH & KRW 0.29%,