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Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
Norges Bank Preview (Aug 14): Amid Very Restrictive Stance, A Policy Pause – Already?
August 5, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
Although surprised, we thought the Norges Bank’s unexpected easing in June was very much warranted, as are the further cuts being flagged in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) that came alongside – ie two more such moves by end year. We actually envisage up to three more moves this year and arou
June US trade deficit falls on weak imports, Canada trade deficit increases on one-time imports bounce
August 5, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
June’s US trade deficit of $60.2bn is even lower than expected, down from $71.7bn in May and in slipping marginally below April’s $60.3bn has reached its lowest level since September 2023. Exports fell by 0.5%, a second straight decline, but imports fell by 3.7%, a third straight fall as strong
DM Rates: Slowdown Debate Trump’s Independence Question for Now
August 5, 2025 9:50 AM UTC
U.S. Treasury spreads versus other DM government bond markets or 10-2yr U.S. Treasuries are not yet showing a risk premium from the Trump administration attacks on the Fed and economic data. Debate over whether the U.S. is seeing a soft or hard landing are reemerging and this will dominate the outlo
Indonesia Q2 GDP Beats Expectations
August 5, 2025 9:45 AM UTC
Q2’s outperformance gives Indonesia’s economic planners breathing space. Investment recovery is a strong positive signal, but sustaining growth in H2 will depend on policy agility, export resilience, and keeping domestic consumption robust.