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Mexico: Political Noise Amplifies Market Fears Amid Sheinbaum's Win
Freemium Article

June 12, 2024 9:07 PM UTC

Claudia Sheinbaum's election win was expected, but MORENA's strong victory was surprising. This led to market concerns, significant peso depreciation, and fears of anti-market policies under Sheinbaum's possibly more radical government. Lopez-Obrador's proposed judicial reforms added to market worri

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Norges Bank Preview (Jun 20): Continued Caution?
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

Given the thrust of recent data and the Board’s clear caution, the Norges Bank is very likely to leave the policy rate at 4.5% for a fourth successive meeting at its next Board meeting with the decision due on June 20.  It is also likely to retain the thinking first aired at the December meeting,

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 13th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 4:21 AM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
Stronger employment data see muted impact on the Aussie
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 12th
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 9:06 AM UTC

USD focus on CPI and FOMC
Fed expected to be more hawkish, but USD reaction depends on how much
EUR/CHF may remain biased lower if France/Germany spreads continue to widen
GBP steady after April GDP

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EZ HICP Review: Core Disinflation Unwinds as Services Resilience Persists?
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This abated last month and even more so in these May numbers, with the headline moving up from the unchanged 2.4% reading to a three-month high of 2.6%,

Chartbook: Chart USD/CHF: Expected to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:01 PM UTC

The anticipated rally from just above critical support at the 0.8320 multi-year Fibonacci retracement has met anticipated selling interest just shy of the 0.9245 high of October 2023

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test below 1.3700 - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

The anticipated test below congestion support at 1.3700 is giving way to fresh consolidation around here

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

US PMIs a focus after May jump
Modest dip expected but unlikely to be enough to trigger much reaction
JPY weakness continues and may bring the BoJ into action
GBP could fall further but big EUR/GBP recovery unlikely ahead of French election

Preview: Due June 21 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - A third straight decline
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to fall by 3.4% to 4.00m. This would be a third straight fall and complete a reversal of a sharp 9.5% rise seen in February. In 2023 February also saw a sharp rise that preceded a steady trend lower in the following months. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower in range
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

The bounce from congestion around 0.6600 has reached 0.6680

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Strong resistance at 170.80
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a fresh move higher in JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due June 21 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections seen from surprising strength in May
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:34 PM UTC

We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show slippage after surprising improvements seen in May, though we do not expect June’s data to show any clear signs of weakness. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending May gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a USD- and JPY-driven break higher

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

Cautious trade above congestion support at 105.00 is giving way to a run higher

U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Current Account all disappoint
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

The latest round of US data is all on the weak side of expectations (though the Philly Fed survey saw higher price indices), with initial claims being of most significance in that this is the survey week for June’s non-farm payroll. While slightly lower on the week, at 238k, last week’s 14k spik

Chartbook: Chart EUR/USD: Extending cautious trade
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 12:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.1000

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BoE Review: MPC Splits Enlarge to Suggest Cut Soon
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:48 AM UTC

As widely Bank Rate was kept at 5.25% for the seventh successive MPC meeting this month, with its rhetoric largely unchanged.  But while there were still only two formal dissents, the minutes clearly suggested that for some of the remaining seven members the policy decision at this meeting was fine

European Summary and Highlights 20 June
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

The CHF fell back and the NOK gained through the European morning after the SNB cut then policy rate 25bps and Norges Bank left rates unchanged.

GBP flows: GBP softer after BoE
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

Makrets see BoE comments as dovish despite unchanged 7-2 vote 

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 11:07 AM UTC

The pullback from the 4.3800 weekly high of 14 June is extending

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited gains from the 17.9415 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:47 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of strong support at the 17.9415 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a corrective bounce

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:36 AM UTC

Little change, as negative intraday studies keep pressure on congestion support at 1.4700 and the 1.4688 weekly low of 14 June

Psychology for major markets June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

USD and risky currencies firm as equities move to new highs

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Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

NOK flows: NOK firmer after Norges Bank meeting
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 9:13 AM UTC

Norges Bank projecting slightly higher short term rate profile supports NOK

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Norges Bank Review: Excessive Last Mile Caution?
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 9:04 AM UTC

It was always the very high likelihood that the thrust of recent data and the Board’s clear caution would mean that the Norges Bank would leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a fourth successive meeting and this is what duly occurred.  Perhaps more notable was that the it was more explicit in stress

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

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SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC

The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting.  We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.  

Chart EUR/CHF Update: CHF-driven gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 8:19 AM UTC

Cautious trade above the 0.9478 low of 19 June has given way to a sharp CHF-driven bounce

Chart USD/CHF Update: Smart CHF-driven bounce
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 8:09 AM UTC

Cautious trade above the 0.8825 low of 18 June has given way to a sharp CHF-driven bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 0.8450

CHF flows: CHF falls back on SNB rate cut
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates 25bps as most expected. CHF weaker and some scope for further losses 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited downside tests
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation just beneath 1.0750

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

June 20, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test higher has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.2750

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room to extend gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

Break above the 1.0850 congestion has seen extension to reach 1.0885 high

CHF, GBP flows: Some downside risks for CHF and GBP
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

SNB and BoE monetary policy decisions today carry some risk of easier than expected policy and weaker currencies

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidation to give way to selling pressure to target 1.6000
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

Break of the January 1.6130 low extend the losses from the March YTD high

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, lower later
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:34 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 83.3425 low as prices consolidate pullback from the 83.5735 high of last week

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 June
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%)

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Another Cut Likely for SNB but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
U.S. Q1 Current Account Deficit to correct higher
U.S. May Housing Neutral month within a slowing trend

USD/JPY flows: Japan Business Survey Pessimistic
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

The Japan Business Survey is showing only 7% business believe wage can catch up with inflation

NZD/USD flows: GDP Beats
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 4:47 AM UTC

New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%)

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 3:48 AM UTC

Consolidation below 16414 high has given way to break to fresh high to extend the underlying bull trend from the 2021 low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Pressure remains on the upside, scope to retest 1388.00 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

Range-bound in consolidation below the 1388.00 resistance but limited pullback keeps pressure on the upside

Chart USD/SGD Update: Scope for deeper pullback within the 1.3550/1.3450 range area
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:45 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from test of the 1.3545/50 resistance area as prices unwind overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/CNH Update: Break to fresh year high
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Break of the 7.2740/60 resistance has seen follow-through above the March high at 7.2830 to reach fresh high at 7.2878

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited above the 1.2700 level
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:58 AM UTC

Higher in range from the 1.2657 Friday's low as prices consolidate sharp rejection from the 1.2860 high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:47 AM UTC

Expected gains following break above the 1.0745 resistance has failed to materialize as gains stalled above the 1.0750 congestion

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Remains in consolidation below 170.00 level
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:20 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 170.00 level with the mixed daily studies suggesting further ranging action here

Chart USD/JPY Update: Still pressuring the 158.00 level, scope to 158.44 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 1:02 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation at the 158.00 level but pressure building on the upside and see potential for extension to retest the 158.44 high of 26 April