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DM Rates Outlook: Policy Divergence
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 •    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious  Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields can be helped by this easing and see a move down through 2025.  However, the budget deficit will likely be 6.5-7.0%

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U.S. Outlook: How Much Damage Will a Trade War Do?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy, consumer spending in particular, ended 2024 looking healthy, but with inflation still above its 2.0% target if well off its highs. The Trump administration’s more aggressive than expected trade war has made a return to the inflation target more difficult and raised dow

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e March 25th
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 9:39 AM UTC

Net JPY positioning remains significantly long, CAD, CHF and NZD positions remain short

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited scope above 0.9550
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 9:26 AM UTC

The test below support at the 0.9500 break level is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath 163.20 has given way to a sharp break lower to 161.00

FX Weekly Strategy: March 31st - April 4th
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC

USD tending to suffer from higher tariffs
JPY still looks to have the most scope for gains
EUR picture less clear cut
AUD still has potential for an upside break

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U.S. Trade Surplus Countries: No Special Treatment?
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC

Quick dilutions of tariffs or exemption will likely be slow in coming for countries that the U.S. has trade surpluses with, as the Trump administration are currently more focused on tariffs for tax revenue and trying to switch production back to the U.S. than trade deals.  Trade policy uncertainty

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

The bounce from support at 0.8333, (GBP/EUR 1.200), is giving way to consolidation beneath resistance at 0.8375

Chart USD/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

The overnight spike lower has bounced from 0.8775~

EUR flows: German state CPIs broadly in line with consensus
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

Mixed German state CPIs. Mild upside risk but close enough to consensus for there to be no significant EUR impact.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.6300 is giving way to a drift lower

Chart USD/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

The pullback from resistance at the 151.00/25 range is extending

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

The break back above 1.0800 has reached 1.0830

Chart GBP/USD Update: Balanced in range
Freemium Article

March 31, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 1.2900 - 1.3000 range

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as risk weakens
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

Weaker equities and lower yields on tariff concerns supporting JPY gains

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 March
Freemium Article

March 31, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

More tough talk from the tariff man

AUD/USD flows: Tariff man shook the market
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 4:39 AM UTC

Australian March private inflation survey 2.8% y/y

FX Weekly Strategy:Europe, March 31st - April 4th
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 4:09 AM UTC

USD tending to suffer from higher tariffs
JPY still looks to have the most scope for gains
EUR picture less clear cut
AUD still has potential for an upside break

RBA Preview: Favors CPI in Mid Range, No Imminent Cut
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on April 1st will keep rates at 4.1% and indicates no imminent cut

USD/JPY flows: Drop on the opening bell
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 1:52 AM UTC

More tough talk from the tariff man

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD despite the global market turmoil on tariff uncertainty fear. The biggest winners are INR by 0.38%, followed by PHP & TWD 0.01%; while the largest losers are KRW 0.3%, MYR 0.15%, SGD 0.13%, THB 0.11%, HKD 0.04% and CNH 0.03%.
USD/CNH is

FX Weekly Strategy: March 31st - April 4th
Paying Article

March 30, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

USD tending to suffer from higher tariffs
JPY still looks to have the most scope for gains
EUR picture less clear cut
AUD still has potential for an upside break

FX Weekly Strategy: March 31st - April 4th
Paying Article

March 30, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

USD tending to suffer from higher tariffs
JPY still looks to have the most scope for gains
EUR picture less clear cut
AUD still has potential for an upside break

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Banxico Review: Lowering Rates Amid Tariffs
Freemium Article

March 29, 2025 9:29 PM UTC

Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 9%, in line with market expectations. The tone of the communiqué suggests a more dovish stance, with the board moving towards a neutral rate. Inflation has reached its lowest level since 2021, while economic growth has slowed. B

North American Summary and Highlights 28 March
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD lost ground as UST yields fell with equities after US data warned of inflationary risk. 

FX Weekly Strategy: March 31st - April 4th
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 4:18 PM UTC

USD tending to suffer from higher tariffs
JPY still looks to have the most scope for gains
EUR picture less clear cut
AUD still has potential for an upside break

U.S. Fed's Daly - Two rate cuts this year still reasonable
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

Fed's Daly's is sticking to her view in line with the FOMC median, but some at the Fed have shifted.

USD flows: USD weaker with equities and bond yields
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The USD is weakenin gin early US trading with bond yields and equities both lower, although the underlying cause is unclear

U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.

Canada January GDP - Looking healthy ahead of the trade war
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

January Canadian GDP with a 0.4% increase was even stronger than the preliminary 0.3% estimate made with December’s report. Canada’s economy was clearly gaining momentum ahead of the emerging trade war. The preliminary estimate for February is unchanged. Negatives may follow as the trade war esc

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U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2025
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2025.

Psychology for major markets March 28th
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:38 AM UTC

USD firm as tariff concerns rise and European data softens

Europe Summary and Highlights 28 March
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

The EUR fell back in the European morning as European data came out on the soft side.

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Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Tariff man Strikes Auto
USD/JPY Rose on its Mark
Norges Bank's Policy Easing Delayed but Far From Abandoned
UK Inflation Slips Even as Services Fail to Soften
Bank of Canada March Minutes Debate over the 25bps easing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending bounce from 1.4235 low
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1.4235 low as intraday and daily studies unwind oversold readings

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited below the .9500 level
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the .9500 level as prices consolidate steep drop from the .9660 high

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating, but room for lower
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 7:37 AM UTC

Consolidating losses to the .8320 Fibonacci level as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/CHF Update: Ranging within the .8850/.8800 area
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation within the .8850/.8800 range

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Lower in consolidation, room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

 Settled back from the 104.68 high as prices consolidate bounce from the low of last week

Chart USD/INR Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Lower within the Monday's range after bounce attempt was rejected at the 85.9100 high

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 March
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

Japan Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y 
China president Xi says US-China relations should stay stable, healthy

AUD/USD flows: Sour risk sentiment
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

China president Xi says US-China relations should stay stable, healthy

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 28th
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 4:30 AM UTC

Tariff Man Defines the Ending Tone of Week
U.S. February  Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI
Tokyo CPI To Remain Hot
But unlikely to change USD/JPY

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating test of 7.2850 resistance
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 3:59 AM UTC

Lower in range from test of the 7.2850 resistance as the intraday and daily studies unwind overbought readings

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extend consolidation below 1472.00 resistance
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:43 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1472.00, February high

Chart USD/MYR Update: Extending consolidation at 4.4300
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:33 AM UTC

Drifting within a narrow range around the 4.4300 level as prices extend consolidation following rejection from the 4.4480 high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Leaning lower in consolidation below 16600
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:18 AM UTC

Leaning lower in consolidation below the 16600 congestion following rejection from the 16657, Tuesday/Wednesday spike highs

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3420 resistance
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 1:54 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from test of the 1.3420 resistance