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China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC
Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe
U.S. Outlook: Fed Focus Turning To Downside Risks
September 23, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
• The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of labor market slowing which poses downside risks to the still impressive resilience of consumer spending, which has sustained healthy GDP growth through Q2 2024. We expect GDP growth below potential in the second half of 2024 and the first half of
China: Weak August Data
September 16, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
China August data was worse than expected and confirms the weak trend in H2, with retail sales a real worry. The government risks missing the 5% growth target for 2024 and targeted fiscal policy moves are likely, but need to be implemented quickly. 10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate is also
Mexico: Controversial Judicial Reform is Approved by the Congress
September 13, 2024 1:39 PM UTC
The Mexican Senate approved a controversial judicial reform proposed by President López Obrador's MORENA party. The reform calls for the election of all 7,000 federal judges, with current judges being dismissed. Supreme Court justices will also be reduced and replaced by elections in 2025. Concerns
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC
We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks.
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
BOE: Gradual to Activist?
October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC
The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts. This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends. The Decem