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Tariffs: Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 4:12 PM UTC

While surprising the market in their intensity, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs were in line with previous threats on most countries, and with Canada and Mexico being treated less harshly that feared, the net surprise is modest to us. However we do feel that inflationary risks have increased furt

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Nervous U.S. Long Term Asset Holders
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

   Overall, foreign equity investors can no longer count on U.S. exceptionalism and could face lower long-term corporate earnings growth, which at a minimum will likely slow net inflows.  Bond investors also face ongoing policy volatility, which likely means a need for an extra risk premium – t

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DM Rates Outlook: Policy Divergence
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 •    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious  Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields can be helped by this easing and see a move down through 2025.  However, the budget deficit will likely be 6.5-7.0%

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U.S. Outlook: How Much Damage Will a Trade War Do?
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy, consumer spending in particular, ended 2024 looking healthy, but with inflation still above its 2.0% target if well off its highs. The Trump administration’s more aggressive than expected trade war has made a return to the inflation target more difficult and raised dow

North American Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - With the ECB easing as expected, FX movements were modest but riskier currencies managed modest gains. 

USD flows: Trump said looking for a new Fed Chairman
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

The USD is a touch weaker after the WSJ reported Trump has spoken with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about replacing current Fed Chairman Powell, though it appears Warsh is not interested. If Trump persists in his search, he will have trouble finding someone who will have the market’s trust. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Pressuring critical support
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

Steady selling interest has reached critical support at the 19.7500 break level and the 19.8430 monthly low of 14 March

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at the 1.3828 current year low of 14 April and the 1.3815 monthly low of 6 November

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Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal

FX Weekly Strategy: April 21st-25th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off

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Banxico Minutes: Comfortable about the Cuts Amid the Volatility
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes confirm a cautious but steady path toward policy normalization, with the policy rate expected to reach neutral levels (7.00–8.00%) in 2025. While the economy shows signs of deceleration and a negative output gap, inflation continues to ease, nearing historical averages.

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ECB Review: Discussing Policy Restriction No Longer Appropriate
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

A seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut was overshadowed by the ECB’s communication shift about the outlook hereafter, no longer talking about how restrictive policy may be.  This shift is entirely appropriate not least given the manner in which financial conditions are now tightenin

Chart AUD/USD Update: Balanced beneath strong resistance at 0.6400/25
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:38 PM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies prompt further consolidation beneath resistance at the 0.6400 break level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 162.00 has met selling interest around 162.60

U.S. Initial Claims low but Philly Fed plunges, mixed housing data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix

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India's Industrial Chill: 2.9 % Growth Signals Cooling Engines
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

India’s factory growth hit the brakes in February, with industrial production rising just 2.9 %, half January’s pace and the slowest since August 2024. Manufacturing and mining lost traction, while a small pickup in electricity output provided limited relief. Stalling consumer‑goods output an

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade above congestion support at 142.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending consolidation - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade

EUR, USD flows: EUR not much changed after ECB but USD likely to stay soft
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

ECB cuts as expected, removes reference to restrictive policy. USD still at risk due to high level and rising uncertainty on US economic prospects

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Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 11:26 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt consolidation around support at 4.2800

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:59 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending cautious trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:39 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and flat overbought daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 April
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD was generally slightly weaker through the European morning.

Psychology for major markets April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 10:04 AM UTC

Riskier currencies recovering modestly as volatility declines

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

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Safe Havens Other Than the USD
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The USD and U.S. Treasuries are currently not acting like safe havens, as the crisis is U.S. centric with the tariff debacle. 10yr Treasuries can regain safe haven status if a U.S. recession occurs, but U.S. equities are still clearly overvalued versus equity and equity-bond metrics.  We prefer Ind

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a minor test higher

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced above 2025 year low - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath resistance at 0.8200

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Choppy trade to give way to consolidation
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

The anticipated test above 0.8600 has met expected selling interest beneath 0.8620, (GBP/EUR 1.1600)

Chart NOK/SEK Update: Limited above the .9300 level
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

Limited on break above the .9280/.9300 resistance as price settled back to consolidate bounce from the .9066, low of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:45 AM UTC

Little change, as a tick lower in intraday studies keeps near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from strong resistance at 1.3300/30
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest just beneath resistance at the 1.3300 range highs

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

 Under pressure as prices extend rejection from the 1.0900/10 resistance

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

Leaning lower in choppy trade after bounce attempt was capped below resistance at the 190.00 congestion

AUD flows: AUD slips after employment data
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Australian employment data disappoints, AUD retreats from key resistance area 

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Room to extend gains from 86.05 low
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 6:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 90.10/00 support

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating losses from 7.4290, 8 Apr YTD high
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

 Turned up from the 7.2785 low to consolidate sharp drop from the 7.4290, 8 April YTD high

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 5:24 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend losses from the 86.7100 high of last week to reach syupport at the 85.5000/85.4000 area

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 April
Freemium Article

April 17, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% & Employment Change +32.2K
Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan's real interest rate remains very low

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 17th
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:53 AM UTC

ECB to cut 25bps but more focus on future intentions
EUR/USD unlikely to be much affected by the decision
Recovering Australian Labor Market still short for Aussie
USD may manage a bounce into the Easter weekend

AUD/USD flows: Labor Market Recovers
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% & Employment Change +32.2K

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Range-bound in consolidation
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 3:04 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the 16729 low to consolidate losses from 16970, all-time high

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating at 33.08 support
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:56 AM UTC

Break of the 33.37 low has seen sharp losses to the 33.08 support

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating above 1411.00 support
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:38 AM UTC

Break to fresh low has seen losses to approach the 1411.00 support

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3100
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 2:23 AM UTC

Edged up from test of the 1.3100 level as prices consolidate the steep drop from 1.3550 high of last week

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating below 1.3300/12 resistance
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

Settling back from approach of the 1.3300/12 resistance as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

USD/JPY flows: Starting on a positive note
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:32 AM UTC

Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan's real interest rate remains very low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extend consolidation below 1.1474 high
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.1474 high of last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:09 AM UTC

Steadied at the 161.30 low as prices consolidate rejection from test of the 163.00/35 resistance