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FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 7th
February 6, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term
CBR Will Likely Hold Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
February 6, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the key rate stable at 21% on December 20 despite expectations were centered around a rate hike, we now foresee that the rate will be kept constant on February 14 taking into account that January will likely bring a little inflation relief support
U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC
A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli
U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC
February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.
Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC
Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod
Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC
The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB. The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
February 21, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback treads lower along with U.S. Treasury Yields. The only loser is TWD by 0.12%; the biggest winners are SGD 0.7%, CNH 0.68%, CNY 0.5%, KRW 0.44%, INR 0.33%, MYR 0.31%, PHP 0.28%, THB 0.1% and THB by 0.01%.
USD/CNH is tr
Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC
We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.
Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC
We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025