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North American Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 7:33 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weak, before and after renewed tariff threats from Trump against the EU and imported iPhones. 

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Big Beautiful Bill will bring larger US budget deficits
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

The “Big Beautiful Bill” on fiscal policy passed by the House was costed by the Congressional Budget Office on May 20 and shows a significant boost to the budget deficit in the remainder of the current Trump presidential term. This is because tax cuts have been front loaded and spending cuts bac

India Q4 FY25 GDP Preview: Growth Rebounds, But Underlying Demand Still Uneven
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

While the Q4 FY25 GDP figures indicate a rebound, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain. The economy's heavy dependence on government spending raises concerns about long-term fiscal health. India's economic recovery in Q4 FY25 reflects a partial rebound facilitated by government expenditure

FX Weekly Strategy: May 26th-30th
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

US/EU tariffs the main focus
USD weakness and JPY strength likely to extend modestly
AUD still looks well supported at 0.64

U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April

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Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway.  Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals.  ECB wage tracker and

Preview: Due May 27 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to plunge, ex transport also seen lower
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 1:20 PM UTC

We expect April durable goods to fall by 9.0% after a 9.2% increase in March. The fall will be largely on a reversal a of a March surge in aircraft, but we expect a 0.3% decline ex transport, which would be the first fall since November 2024 and the steepest fall since January 2024.

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - High bar for rate moves
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee has expressed concern over Trump's latest tariff threat, and seems uninterested in near term rate moves. 

Canada March Retail Sales rise, with autos strong and gasoline weak, April seen firmer
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.8% rise in March retail sales is slightly stronger than a 0.7% preliminary estimate made with February’s release, but the rise is more than fully explained by what was the first rise in three months for autos, possibly related to concerns about upcoming tariffs. Ex auto sales fell by

EUR, USD flows: EUR falls as Trump proposes 50% tariff
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 12:22 PM UTC

The proposal of a 50% tariff on the EU to start on June 1 has hit the EUR

India CPI Review: Soft Inflation Persists, RBI Gets Breathing Room
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 10:31 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, its lowest since July 2019, led by falling food prices and broad-based disinflation. With CPI below target for a third month, the RBI is poised for more rate cuts amid slowing global growth.

BI Cuts Rates to Cushion Growth Slowdown as Inflation Stays Benign
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 10:23 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 5.50% in May, citing subdued inflation and stabilising currency conditions. With Q1 growth slowing to 4.87%, the central bank has shifted focus to supporting domestic momentum, signalling potential for further easing in the second half of 2025.

Psychology for major markets May 23
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Riskier currencies firmer on stronger European data

Europe Summary and Highlights 23 May
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 10:12 AM UTC

The USD was generally weaker against the riskier currencies, helped by strong UK and German data

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Speakers This Week
UK-EU Getting Back on the (Political) Fence
RBA Cut by 25bps
How Durable a Surge in UK CPI 
The Greenback Stays Pressured

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 23rd
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

JPY to stay well supported by rising CPI
CHF/JPY remains the clearest value trade
GBP may gain on retail sales but hard to see sustained break lower in EUR/GBP
USD likely to be resilient on home sales data

Chart USD/CHF Update: Shallow bounce from .8200 support
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

Turned up from the support at the .8200 congestion as prices consolidate losses from the .8480 resistance

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure, .8400/.8385 support at risk
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure after shallow bounce from the June/July lows was checked at the .8450/.8475 resistance

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure, focus on 1.3750 low
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 7:07 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend rejection from the 1.4000/25 resistance

EUR, GBP flows: Data supportive of EUR and GBP
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Strogn UK retail sales and upward revision in German GDP should underpin EUR and GBP

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Turkiye Inflation Report: CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast at 24%
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 22, and kept its inflation forecast constant for 2025 at 24%. CBRT governor Karahan signalled to maintain a tight stance until a permanent decline in inflation is sustained and price stabili

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room to extend losses
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:09 AM UTC

Edged up from the 99.33 low as prices consolidate losses from the 102.00 high of last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Weighing on 7.2000, break in focus
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 5:39 AM UTC

Weighing on the 7.2000 level and break here will expose the 7.1800/7.1790 lows to retest

Chart USD/INR Update: Lower in consolidation from 86.1025 high
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

Settled back below the 86.1025 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2025 4:54 AM UTC

Japan April National Headline CPI 3.6% y/y