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Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 2, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. September and October Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector starting to pick up
January 2, 2026 4:21 PM UTC
The delayed housing starts and permits data for September in October will be released on January 9. We expect starts to rise by 1.8% in September and 3.0% in October, while permits rise by 0.8% in September and 2.2% in October, both reaching October levels of 1370k in October.
FX Weekly Strategy: January 5th-9th
January 2, 2026 3:59 PM UTC
US employment report the main focus, mildly stronger than expected gain seen
EUR could slip on weaker HICP
CAD strength could fade after recent outperformance
JPY weakness still needs intervention to reverse it
NOK looks attractive near long term lows
Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
January 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme
Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
January 2, 2026 3:05 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
January 2, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
Bessent: New Fed Inflation Range and Dropping Dots?
January 2, 2026 11:30 AM UTC
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent over the Christmas period suggested that the Fed should shift to targeting an inflation range and drop the quarterly dots. What impact would this have? Such a change would give the Fed more flexibility on the margin, but not significant. This could make communicat
Psychology for major markets Jan 2
January 2, 2026 9:06 AM UTC
EUR/USD – EUR/USD remain depressed on the first trading day of 2026. Headlines are still lackluster so far.
USD/JPY – The pair is steadily higher but there hasn't been new triggers. Thus, it is likely more follow through momentum. And looking at the broader picture, USD/JPY has been in consolidat