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2024 Q4 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agenc

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 7th
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

Mild USD downside risks on US employment report
JPY continues to look the most attractive currency
CAD needs a strong Canadian employment report to prevent a renewed decline
AUD still looks attractive
EUR/GBP looks set to stabilise near term

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CBR Will Likely Hold Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
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February 6, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the key rate stable at 21% on December 20 despite expectations were centered around a rate hike, we now foresee that the rate will be kept constant on February 14 taking into account that January will likely bring a little inflation relief support

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating retest of 7.3000
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February 28, 2025 4:41 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break above the 7.2500 congestion to reach the 7.3000 level

AUD/USD flows: Risk continue to get sagged
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February 28, 2025 4:11 AM UTC

The risk asset continue to get sagged

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
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February 28, 2025 3:22 AM UTC

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low through the 34.00 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Break to fresh year high
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February 28, 2025 3:09 AM UTC

 Break above resistance at the 16384/16400 area has seen follow-through above the 2024 year high at 16474

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending sharp rally
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February 28, 2025 2:47 AM UTC

Sharply higher following break of the 1440.00 level to retest strong resistance at the 1455.00/1460.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending bounce from 1.3312 low
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February 28, 2025 2:29 AM UTC

Sharply higher through resistance at the 1.3420/1.3460 previous lows to extend gaing from the 1.3312 low

USD/JPY flows: Dragged by sentiment
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February 28, 2025 2:19 AM UTC

Japanese labour unions push for record wage hike amid rising costs
Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending rejection from 1.2700
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February 28, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

Turned lower from test of the 1.2700 level as daily studies unwind the deep overbought readings to reach support at 1.2600

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
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February 28, 2025 2:02 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure to extend rejection from the 1.0500/33 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending losses to fresh year low
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February 28, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 156.16/00 support has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure to extend the broader losses from October high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extend consolidation above 148.56 low
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February 28, 2025 12:57 AM UTC

Drifting narrowly in range as prices extend consolidation above the 148.56 low

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 28, 2025 12:46 AM UTC

Break of the .5700 congestion extending losses to pressure strong support at the .5622/.5600 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6250/33 support
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February 28, 2025 12:21 AM UTC

Break of the .6300 level has seen sharp losses to reach support at the .6250/33 area

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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February 28, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as risk sentiment continues to tread lower on U.S. tariff concern and soft global outlook. The biggest loser is KRW by 0.92%, followed by SGD 0.71%, THB 0.61%, CNH and IDR 0.49%, CNY 0.39%, MYR 0.27%, TWD 0.08%, HKD 0.04% and PHP 0.02%

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

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Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
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February 27, 2025 7:53 PM UTC

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 4:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
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February 27, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
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February 27, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
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February 27, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
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February 27, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
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February 27, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
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February 27, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6300 has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
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February 27, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

U.S. Fed's Schmid - More cautious about inflation
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February 27, 2025 2:36 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is concerrned with recent data from inflation, and inflation expectations

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Argentina: Recovery Complete?
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February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation 

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
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February 27, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

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ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
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February 27, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
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February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Poised for further losses
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February 27, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a test above 18.5000
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February 27, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for a test below 1.5000
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February 27, 2025 11:38 AM UTC

The test above strong resistance at the 1.5070 Fibonacci retracement has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.5100

Psychology for major markets February 27th
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February 27, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
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February 27, 2025 11:05 AM UTC

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025
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February 27, 2025 9:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
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February 27, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
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February 27, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

The test of support at the 0.8900 break level and the 0.8910 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
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February 27, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

The anticipated minor test above congestion resistance at 0.8300 has not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
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February 27, 2025 8:38 AM UTC

The test above resistance at 1.0500 has been pushed back from the 1.0533 current year high of 27 January

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 8:23 AM UTC

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Range-bound above 188.07 support
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February 27, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

No change, with prices confined within a narrow range above the 188.07 support

CAD flows: CAD looks vulnerable
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February 27, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

CAD looks vulnerable with tariff threat looming