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Nervous U.S. Long Term Asset Holders
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

   Overall, foreign equity investors can no longer count on U.S. exceptionalism and could face lower long-term corporate earnings growth, which at a minimum will likely slow net inflows.  Bond investors also face ongoing policy volatility, which likely means a need for an extra risk premium – t

North American Summary and Highlights 9 May
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly slightly softer in a subdued day of trading. 

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3900

FX Weekly Strategy: May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:56 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.

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A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

The anticipated test below 0.6400 has bounced from above further support at 0.6360

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy in range - studies rising
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:38 PM UTC

Anticipated minor gains have been pushed back from just below resistance at 164.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating gains - studies continue to improve
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached resistance within the 145.55 Fibonacci retracement and the 146.00 break level

CAD flows: CAD little changed after employment report
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

USD/CAD little changed but risks to the upside as employment trend weakens

Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Breaking lower
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated losses

U.S. Fed's Barr - Fears tariffs could lead to persistent inflation
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 11:53 AM UTC

Fed's Barr fears both higher unemployment and persistent inflation as a consequence of the tariffs, comments that we see as on the hawkish side.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Range extension - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Range extension - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 11:01 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 1.5600 - 1.5700 range

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Household Divergence Into the Downturn?
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Overall, the shock faced by the U.S. from tariffs is a negative supply shock, which can then be followed by job losses and restrained income and consumption growth.  This 2 round can be amplified if a hard landing is seen and quickens job losses, which would really hurt low income households. Howev

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 100.82

Europe Summary and Highlights 9 May
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

The USD was a little softer against the EUR and JPY through the European morning, EUR/USD gaining 20 pips to 1.1245 and USD/JPY losing 20 pips to 145.25. 

Psychology for major markets May 9
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

USD recovering helped by more positive equity tone

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed

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India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

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UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1).  But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected