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December 19, 2025
FX 2 Weekly Strategy: December 22nd - January 2nd
December 19, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
USD should be well supported by Q3 GDP
JPY the focus as it hits new lows in real trade-weighted terms
Japanese FX intervention looks necessary to reverse JPY weakness – probability of intervention now high
AUD and NOK look undervalued
Canada October retail sales - A weak month, but November seen stronger
December 19, 2025 1:49 PM UTC
Canadian retail sales with a 0.2% October decline are weaker than the unchanged estimate made with September’s report, and suggest a continued subdued consumer picture. However the preliminary estimate for November is quite strong, with a rise of 1.2% projected.
EZ HICP Preview (Jan 7): Is Services Inflation Problematic?
December 19, 2025 11:10 AM UTC
HICP inflation has been range bound for the last 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. But we see the headline rate falling out of that range in December to 1.9%, this preceding what may be a short-lived fall toward 1.5% in H1 2026. Som
Easing Cycle Continues: CBR Reduced Key Rate to 16% on December 19
December 19, 2025 11:09 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key rate by 50 bps to 16% during the MPC on December 19 since the pace of the fall in inflation accelerated in November. CBR said in its written statement that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period, and further decision
Western Europe Outlook: Underlying Price Pressures Ebbing
December 19, 2025 9:34 AM UTC
· In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 GDP growth by 0.1 ppt to 1.3%, but pared back that for next year by a two notches to a very sub-par 0.6%. We think the weak(er) labor market will accentuate somewhat refreshed disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further in 2026 by around 75 bp to 3.0
Mexico: 25bps Cut and Now Pause
December 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.0% as expected with a downward revision to 0.3% for 2025 GDP growth. Below trend GDP is forecast in 2026 and we see this prompting further easing in March and June 2026 by 25bps each, but MXN weakness restraining Banxico pace. We then see Banxico going on hold for the rem
Japan Outlook: Putting One Foot in Front
December 19, 2025 7:15 AM UTC
· Private consumption growth is hindered by negative real wage in Q3 2025 yet Japan continues to demonstrate the structural change in both higher business price/wage setting and consumer behavior. Early signs for 2026 spring wage negotiation are upbeat and should see wage growth at