FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 4th

June 3, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Tight ranges hold, though mood skewing more defensive
USD/JPY dancing on the edge of 160, bracing for a test above. Greater scope for intraday noise and spoofing
Swiss and Swedish CPI. Otherwise focus turning to US payrolls, mkt bias to upside

North American Summary and Highlights 3 June

June 3, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly firmer but came off its highs as USD/JPY failed to break 160. 

Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April

June 3, 2026 7:27 PM UTC

We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Stronger than previous report, parrticularly on prices

June 3, 2026 6:36 PM UTC

The latest Fed Beige Book reads marginally stronger on activity (if not employment) and significantly stronger on prices than the last one.

Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Some positive signals

June 3, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to increase by 2.0% to 4.10m, extending a marginal 0.2% increase in April but still not fully reversing March’s 2.9% decline. This would bring the first yr/yr increase since October 2025, by 1.5%, following a flat April.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Higher in CAD-driven trade

June 3, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break higher in CAD-driven trade

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Jun 4th

June 3, 2026 3:21 PM UTC

Tight ranges hold, though mood skewing more defensive
USD/JPY dancing on the edge of 160, bracing for a test above. Greater scope for intraday noise and spoofing
Swiss and Swedish CPI. Otherwise focus turning to US payrolls, mkt bias to upside

U.S. Fed's Williams - No obvious argument to change rates now

June 3, 2026 3:08 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' tone remains moderate, and his views on inflation will be shaped by a lot more than moves in oil.

U.S. May ISM Services - Economy remains resilient

June 3, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

May’s ISM services index of 54.5 is up from 53.6 in April and a 3-month high. While we suspect seasonal adjustments flattered the data it provides further evidence of US economic resilience in the face of the energy shock.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Lower in range

June 3, 2026 1:43 PM UTC

Cautious trade around resistance at 0.7200 has given way to a pullback

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for a test above 160.00

June 3, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 160.00 is giving way to consolidation

U.S. May ADP Employment - Trend picking up

June 3, 2026 12:36 PM UTC

May’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 122k is in line with market exactions if not quite as strong as weekly ADP data for the preceding week had been implying.  Still, it maintains a recent improvement in trend and like last week’s was, is the strongest increase since January 2

USD flows: No surprise from ADP

June 3, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

ADP leaves payrolls expectations intact
Still low volatility that belies the underlying market tension

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Range extension

June 3, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have proven short-lived, as overbought intraday studies unwind

USD/JPY, EUR, GBP flows: noise off 160 through BoJ Ueda speech

June 3, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Nervy USD/JPY positional noise below 160 through BoJ's Ueda speech

Psychology for major markets June 3

June 3, 2026 8:29 AM UTC

Crossfire Continues