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April 21, 2026
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger
April 21, 2026 5:31 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI
April 21, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same time and to which it will contribute. We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in
U.S. March Pending Home Sales - Stronger than expected but no clear trend
April 21, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
Pending home sales have seen an unexpected 1.5% increase in March, a second straight gain, though the declines of December and January have still not been fully reversed, and the yr/yr picture remains marginally negative.
U.S. March Retail Sales - Underlying resilience, lower taxes may be helping
April 21, 2026 1:02 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 1.7% rise, 1.9% ex autos are stronger than expected. Most of the rise is on the surging price of gasoline, though sales ex auto and gasoline with a 0.6% increase are on the firm side of expectations, with February revised up to 0.6% from 0.4% and January to 0.4% from 0.2%.
EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?
April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led. Indeed, thi
UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms. Admittedly, headlines may be formed around
April 20, 2026
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact
April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?
April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing. Indeed, part of a broad