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October 01, 2026
Could blow out in French spreads, CDS, catch up with the euro? (EUR/GBP flows)
October 1, 2026 9:00 AM UTC
Recent action in OAT-bund spreads continues to extend, yet to fully come onto the FX mkt radar
EUR-GBP CDS spread widening the fastest since 2017
EUR/GBP could extend the resistance test failure to range lows if relative risk re-pricing starts to impact narrative, sentiment
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows - Yen dips after period end, pulls to expiries
October 1, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
USD/JPY bounces after period end weight, and key expiries again proving magnetic (158-158.25 today)
USD/CHF still trending to 0.84 resistance, CPI tame
ISM the main interest later today ahead of payrolls
September 30, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices slower in August
September 30, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE price index at 1.92% annualized in August is similar to July’s and the third straight month below 2.0%. Yr/yr growth of 2.19% is down from 2.28% in both June and July and the slowest since August 2021.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - PCE prices revised down as suspected; Germany confirmed higher
September 30, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Mixed data, PCE price downward revisions, Germany upside, tending to stem the dollar
Cable seeing the greatest benefit, with short positioning and GDP data helping firm Nov hike expectations
U.S. September ADP Employment - Consistent with lower initial claims
September 30, 2026 12:30 PM UTC
September’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 90k is on the firm side of expectations and a 3-month high for the ADP report. It leaves us comfortable with our 100k forecasts for both private sector and overall non-farm payrolls.