View:
April 28, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 28, 2026 6:22 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
April 28, 2026 6:14 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense
April 28, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - February exports gain less sustainable that that of imports
April 28, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
Trade data has been volatile recently and advance goods data could have an impact on Q1 GDP expectations, with GDP data due on April 30. We expect a deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.5bn in February and $80.9bn in January.
U.S. April Consumer Confidence remains resilient, labor market view improves
April 28, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, as was the case in March, has proven surprisingly resilient to worries on gasoline prices, with the index seeing a third straight marginal rise, to 92.8 from 92.2.
Big EM: Diverging Fiscal Trends
April 28, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
· EM government bond spreads are controlled as 2nd round inflation effects are likely to be less than 2022, due to less buoyant domestic demand/slacker labour markets and less global supply chain pressure ex oil/oil products. Brazil is expected to cut rates and others will likely not
Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected
April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS). At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t