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September 15, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 15 September
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 7:25 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained firmer supported by oil and UST yields as equities were pressured, though moves were modest ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. 

Preview: Due September 29 - Canada July GDP - Subdued start to Q3
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

We expect July GDP to be unchanged, a pause after three straight gains in Q2. This would be in line with the preliminary estimate for July made with June’s report. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Range trade - daily studies rising
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the tight 1.3900 - 1.3925 range

Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects.  Breakeven inflation expectatio

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:43 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.7100 - 0.7150 range

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

The pullback to congestion support at 154.00 has given way to a steady bounce

...
China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Some loss of momentum, prices firm
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at 7.6 is still positive but down from a very strong 20.6 in August that was the strongest since December 2021. The data follows modest slowing in August’s ISM and S and P manufacturing PMIs, though both also remained clearly positive.

Chartbook: Chart EUR/CHF: Fresh year highs - background studies improving
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:19 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath 0.9250 has given way to anticipated gains

...
Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 15
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

Spec data shows mkt turned long kiwi - often a contrary indicator
Risk sentiment turns weaker, squeezing dollar, as oil catches up with sentiment; AI complications
Soft UK labour market data, followed by CPI, provide the run in to the next BoE meeting

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced beneath year highs
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and flattening overbought daily stochastics prompt cautious trade within the 0.8150 - 0.8200/07 range

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a fresh push higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 7:36 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at the 1.1520 Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for fresh losses
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on support at the 1.3475 Fibonacci retracement

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Labor mkt data remains soft; BoE to adjust long-end QT
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 6:39 AM UTC

UK Labour market data shows ongoing soft trend
Press suggest BoE to scrap 20-30yr gilt sales at upcoming QT decision
GBP still in the pack, but cable remains heavy

China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 2:52 AM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

September 15, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Still limited below the 1.3475 support but pressure remains on the downside following rejection from the 1.3568 high of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:50 AM UTC

Consolidation at 1.1575 support has given way to break to extend losses from the 1.1655 swing high of last week

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in consolidation towards 155.00/22 resistance
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 1:06 AM UTC

Turning higher in consolidation following bounce from the 153.00 support

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5762/50 support
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:50 AM UTC

Consolidation around the .5800 level has given way to fresh selling pressure to reach support at the .5762/50 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressure remains on the downside
Paying Article

September 15, 2026 12:33 AM UTC

Consolidation at the .7150 support has given way to break to reach towards the .7100 level

September 14, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 14 September
Freemium Article

September 14, 2026 7:53 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was firmer on the day but corrected off its highs led by moves in oil. 

Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
Paying Article

September 14, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.

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