North American Summary and Highlights 31 July

July 31, 2026 7:19 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw some recovery but fell to new lows in North America.

Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates

July 31, 2026 7:03 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Close call whether rates are high enough

July 31, 2026 5:01 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin, while not a voter tis year, may be speaking for several at the FOMC

U.S. Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan explain their hawkish dissents

July 31, 2026 4:31 PM UTC

The three hawkish dissents at the latest meeting came from the three who dissented against an easing bias in April. They have explained their votes better than Chair Warsh explained the decision to hold.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

July 31, 2026 3:51 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 3-7

July 31, 2026 3:28 PM UTC

US payrolls the major highlight - solid data expected, albeit with unemployment rate correcting back up
Otherwise, a relatively quiet week elsewhere

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 3-7

July 31, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

USD/JPY remains the pivotal focus after intervention and sources reports threatening more
US payrolls the main data focus with a quite week elsewhere

USD/JPY Flows - sources reports keep heavy

July 31, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Reuters sources flag risk of further intervention, keep USD/JPY heavy and edgy

Preview: Due August 3 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Deliveries and prices paid normalizing

July 31, 2026 2:07 PM UTC

We expect modest slippage in July’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.0 from 53.3, extending a dip from May’s bounce to 54.0 which was the highest level since May 2022. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower

July 31, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 0.7000 is meeting selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 0.7050

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure

July 31, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

The sharp bounce following volatile JPY-driven losses is giving way to choppy trade around 160.00

Canada May GDP - Set for a healthy Q2

July 31, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

May Canadian GDP data clearly shows an economy returning to growth in Q2. The 0.3% increase was stronger than a 0.2% consensus and a 0.1% preliminary estimate made with April’s data. April was revised higher to a 0.6% rise from 0.5% and the preliminary estimate for June is a respectable gain of 0.

U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Stabilizing above pre-pandemic trend

July 31, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

The 0.9% increase in Q2’s Employment Cost index is on the high side of expectations. Wages and salaries rise by 0.9%, while benefit costs rise by 1.0%.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - daily studies continue to rise

July 31, 2026 11:15 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.6150 is giving way to a minor pullback

This week's five highlights

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents
U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government
BoJ As Expected
USD/JPY Intervened
BOE Split Does Not Mean September Hike

Continuum Economics Calendar August 2026

July 31, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar August 2026.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 31

July 31, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

BoJ largely as expected, minor lift to Sep pricing
Focus will return to Geopolitics

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure

July 31, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to sharp losses in heightened volatility