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November 19, 2025
UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?
November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak. Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 19th
November 19, 2025 4:30 AM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
November 18, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 19th
November 18, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 19th
November 18, 2025 3:31 PM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
UK Budget Outlook (Nov 26): The Fiscal Blame Game – Yet Again!
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
If not the most keenly awaited Budget for some years, Chancellor Reeve’s updates on Nov 26 is certainly the one that has attracted the most speculation and from all sides. What is clear is that amid several factors, a marked fiscal tightening is in store. This though now seems as if it will be
U.S. November NAHB Homebuilders Index - Bounce extended but 6-month view corrects lower
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
November’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 38 has marginally extended a 5-point October bounce and remains at its highest level since April. Details show increasing strength in current month data but a correction lower in the 6-month view.
Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
November 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March. This release was
Markets 2026
November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated. The BOJ could partiall