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May 01, 2026
U.S. Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan explain their hawkish dissents
May 1, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
The three hawkish dissents at the latest meeting were against an easing bias. Kashkari seems the most hawkish, with a leaning to tightening. Hammack and Logan both noted resilence in activity data as well as infltionary risk. There was a dovish dissent from Miran, but he will leave the Fed once Wars
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Stable but with higher inflationary pressure
May 1, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is unchanged from March and slightly below expectations but this still means four straight clearly positive readings from an index that had been running below neutral for the ten preceding months.
Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?
May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months. While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook
April 30, 2026
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
April 30, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.
Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April
April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo