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September 11, 2026

U.S. August Median CPI subdued at 2.1% annualized
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

August’s 2.1% annualized increase in the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI is quite subdued and suggests that the upside surprise in the core ex food and energy rate can be attributed to a few components.

FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman

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FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman

U.S. September Michigan CSI - Down as Middle East risks rise
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

September’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 47.8 from 51.7 is significantly weaker than expected and is likely led by escalating worries over the Middle East and in particular gasoline prices.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 1:53 PM UTC

The test of congestion support at 0.7150 is giving way to consolidation

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in choppy trade - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 1:14 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath resistance at 154.50 has given way to a fresh pullback

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

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U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF flows: Core CPI upside bolster Sep hike odds
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Core CPI upside supports Sep FOMC tightening call, and mkt odds rise to around 85% 
FX reaction modest thus far, though CHF remains on the back foot as the increasing low inflation, low rates stand out

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QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Gains capped in range - background under pressure
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 11:40 AM UTC

The anticipated (JPY-driven) test of support at the 98.60 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce, as daily stochastics and the flat daily Tension Indicator turn higher

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

September 11, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios
U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Risk
ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%
U.S. August PPI Near consensus
USD/JPY Consolidating at 153.00

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Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 11
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 9:01 AM UTC

EUR/USD dips back to anchor out of ECB meeting, though money market rate bets firm up
Focus turns to US CPI, where we see upside risks to core
Could see another intraday reaction for the dollar to keep recent chop going
UK GDP upside keeps EUR/GBP capping and range top fading in place for now

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 8:34 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break above 0.8100

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room for a minor test higher
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break above 99.00, with prices reaching 99.20 before settling into consolidation above 99.00

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UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 7:49 AM UTC

Choppy trade beneath resistance at 1.1650 has given way to a pullback to congestion support at 1.1600

Chartbook: US Chart Gold (XAU): Room to extend corrective pullback
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Saw steady gains from the Q2 low at 3942 to reach the 5-month channel resistance from the April high just beneath the 4700 level

Chart GBP/USD Update: Lower in range - studies turning down
Freemium Article

September 11, 2026 7:37 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion resistance at 1.3550 has given way to a pullback to congestion support at 1.3500

Psychology for major markets Sep 11
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 7:14 AM UTC

Fiery Weekend Coming

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Yields and US CPI in focus; UK GDP upside keeps cross cap holding
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

US CPI and bond yields in focus
UK GDP upside helps cap EUR/GBP, keep GBP shorts at bay while holds

Weekly Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 153.00; room for lower later
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Steadied at the 153.00 low as prices consolidate sharp drop from the 160.00/160.50 resistance to trade around the 154.00 level.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Sep 11
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 5:10 AM UTC

EUR/USD dips back to anchor out of ECB meeting, though money market rate bets firm up
Focus turns to US CPI, where we see upside risks to core
Could see another intraday reaction for the dollar to keep recent chop going

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating Recent Move
Paying Article

September 11, 2026 4:17 AM UTC

Reuters sources say the BOJ is set to hike rates 25bp to 1.25% next week

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