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December 16, 2025
Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower
December 16, 2025 4:25 PM UTC
We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle
December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
· Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu
U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum
December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct
Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending losses in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
December 16, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
Asterisk denotes strength of level
13:40 GMT - Cautious trade has given way to fresh losses in both USD- and JPY-driven trade, with prices currently consolidating the test of strong support at the 154.34 weekly low of 5 December. Daily readings are negative and broader weekly charts are turning down,
Commodities Outlook: A Balancing Act
December 16, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
Global oil demand is expected to be modest, with weak consumption in the U.S. and China, while India will support demand in 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply is expected to expand moderately in 2026, whereas OPEC’s policy will respond to demand but remains puzzling. Supply trends in 2027 are likely t
UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing Even More Clearly on Wages
December 16, 2025 8:06 AM UTC
Adding to the array if weak activity updates of late, there are increasing signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs more clearly and broadly with fresh and deeper falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down alm