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April 15, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - February exports gain less sustainable that that of imports
April 15, 2026 4:54 PM UTC
Trade data has been volatile recently and advance goods data could have an impact on Q1 GDP expectations, with GDP data due on April 30. We expect a deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.5bn in February and $80.9bn in January.
Turkiye MPC Preview: Key Rate Will Likely Be Held Constant on April 22 MPC
April 15, 2026 3:40 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely hold the policy rate stable at 37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for April 22 due to inflationary risks as both geopolitical uncertainties and domestic dynamics remain significant risk factors for the inflation outlook. Our end-year
Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Industrial Production - Moderate manufacturing gain, stronger overall
April 15, 2026 3:19 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in March industrial production with the increase coming from a 0.3% rise in manufacturing, while gains of 1.0% in utilities and 1.2% in mining will each add around 0.1% to the total.
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stronger month though March may slip
April 15, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect February GDP to increase by 0.3%, slightly stronger than a 0.2% gain predicted with January’s report, though risk is for a weaker preliminary estimate for March. If March declines by 0.1% after a 0.3% February increase, and January’s 0.1% increase is unrevised, this would imply a 1.6%
U.S. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Resilient, prices mostly firmer but not shockingly so
April 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC
April’s Empire State manufacturing index at 11.0 is up from a near neutral -0.2 in March and the strongest since November, suggesting activity is resilient to the Middle East crisis. 6-month expectations have however taken a hit, falling to 19.6 from 31.0, this the lowest since November.
DM Central Bank Signals Awaited
April 15, 2026 12:12 PM UTC
· Fed/ECB and BOE meetings will likely see concern over the potential 2nd round inflation effects from the Iran war, but forecasts seeing inflation coming down in 2027 and no imminent signals of tightening from the ECB/BOE – our baseline remains for easing later in the year, as energy
April 14, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense
April 14, 2026 3:38 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.