FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 25th-29th

May 24, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Resilient equity markets preventing much FX movement…
…but sell in May and go away makes sense this year
European currencies vulnerable to any turn lower in risk sentiment
JPY remains favoured with BoJ protecting the downside

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 25th-29th

May 24, 2026 5:00 PM UTC

Resilient equity markets preventing much FX movement…
…but sell in May and go away makes sense this year
European currencies vulnerable to any turn lower in risk sentiment
JPY remains favoured with BoJ protecting the downside

North American Summary and Highlights 22 May

May 22, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was supported by comments from Fed’s Waller and higher Michigan CSI inflation expectations but ended little changed. 

Preview: Due June 5 - Canada May Employment - A modest gain but a subdued picture

May 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in May, which after a fall of 17.7k in April would leave trend looking subdued, if not as weak as three declines in the last four months have implied. We expect unemployment to remain at 6.9% after increasing in April from 6.7% in March.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending May gains

May 22, 2026 3:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to anticipated gains

FX Weekly Strategy: May 25th-29th

May 22, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Resilient equity markets preventing much FX movement…
…but sell in May and go away makes sense this year
European currencies vulnerable to any turn lower in risk sentiment
JPY remains favoured with BoJ protecting the downside

USD/CAD flows: Inflation expectations, Fed Waller

May 22, 2026 2:52 PM UTC

Fed's Waller highlights inflation expectations as UoM figures revised notably higher
Keeping US fixed income on the backfoot and dollar supported

U.S. Fed's Waller - Should remove easing bias, watching inflation expectations

May 22, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Fed's Waller turned dovish in 2025 on labor market risks. His focus is now shifting to inflation.

U.S. Final May Michigan CSI - Unusually large downward revision as inflation expectations accelerate

May 22, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

The final May Michigan CSI of 44.8 is an unusually sharp downward revision from the preliminary 48.2 and down further from April’s 49.8 as well as a fresh record low. It appears that consumer patience over finding a resolution to the Middle East conflict is exhausted.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure

May 22, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 0.7100

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - daily studies rising

May 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation within resistance at congestion around 159.00 and the 159.25 high of 19 May

Canada March retail sales - Negative in real terms

May 22, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

March Canadian retail sales with a 0.9% increase are stronger than the preliminary estimate of 0.6% but the increase was more than fully explained by price gains, largely gasoline, with sales falling by 0.7% in real terms. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Balanced trade

May 22, 2026 11:36 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade around resistance at 1.6000

This week's five highlights

May 22, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

April FOMC Minutes Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt
Cautious DXY trade 
ECB Not the Only Game in Town
UK CPI Falls Broadly
UK Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 22nd

May 22, 2026 8:54 AM UTC

Japan National CPI Likely Shielded from Shock Now
And its impact on JPY Muted
DXY Remain Supported By Uncertainty

EUR flows: Steady after IFO and INSEE surveys

May 22, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

IFO and INSEE both slightly stronger thna expected, but underlying picture in Europe still weak