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September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca
September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
ADP broaldy within expectations, offers no new lean into payrolls
Minor adjustments on non-yielding (CHF) and risk sides
But otherwise contained trade, digesting how bond-risk-FX plays out near-term
September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC
· BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting. A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo