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May 27, 2026
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments may provide a lift
May 27, 2026 5:27 PM UTC
We expect May’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 53.6 in April, picking up after two straight declines from February’s 56.1. While rising energy prices are a downside risk for services activity, seasonal adjustments may provide some support in May.
Preview: Due June 1 - U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - A renewed acceleration
May 27, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect a rise in May’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 from 52.7, reaching its highest level since June 2022 after four straight similar months, extending the improvement from negative late 2025 readings.
Preview: Due June 3 - U.S. May ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains firm
May 27, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
We expect a 100k increase in May’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be similar to April’s 109k, which was the strongest since January 2025. It would not be as strong as a 4-week average of 37.75 in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to May 9 implies. The weekly
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 27, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
USD, EUR/CAD,NOK/SEK,AUD/NZD flows: Oil slips back further on initial draft of a provisional...
May 27, 2026 12:48 PM UTC
Oil continues to pull back on further 'initial draft MoU' headline
Tending to play to the o/n move towards corrective ToT cross trades
USD off a little, but recent positioning more balanced
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 27, 2026 12:27 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
DM Government Bond Markets in Limbo
May 27, 2026 12:22 PM UTC
· DM central bank meetings in June will be crucial, with a high risk of a 25bps ECB hike to warn against 2nd round effects from higher oil prices and a BOJ 25bps hike as part of the ongoing normalisation. However, the tone that the Fed’s Warsh will set will also be key. The bigges
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 27, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?
May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise. Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4
AUD/NZD, EUR/USD: Pre-event squaring out of RBNZ; elsewhere still low vol despite backdrop
May 27, 2026 6:49 AM UTC
AUD/NZD reversing run out of last 2 sessions, though RBNZ was only catching up towards mkt pricing
Elsewhere, mkt continues to wait and hope on Iran, expiries could add to the lethargy
BoJ comments may back a hike, but month-end and backdrop dominate