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July 24, 2025

USD flows: USD weak on trade deal optimism, but...
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July 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

USD weaker on talk of trade agreements, but are trade deals bad for the USD?

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 24th
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July 24, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

AUD/USD flows: Bullock Less Dovish
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July 24, 2025 4:21 AM UTC

RBA Bullock says Q2 core inflation may not have slowed as much as first expected 
and monthly job numbers pop up and down

USD/JPY flows: Bessent's remark kept JPY supported
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July 24, 2025 2:59 AM UTC

Bessent threatens Japan with 25% tariff if Trump is unhappy

Chart GBP/USD Update: Within reach of 1.3600/32 resistance
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July 24, 2025 1:35 AM UTC

Pressure remains firmly on the upside as prices extend gains from the 1.3370 support

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for retest of 1.1800/30
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July 24, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

Break above the 1.1700 level see prices extending bounce from the 1.1600/1.1573 support

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 146.55/146.00 support, lower later
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July 24, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

Consolidating test of support at the 146.55/146.00 area

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending gains
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July 24, 2025 12:31 AM UTC

Break above the .6000 level further extend gains from the .5905 low to reach strong resistance at .6030/50 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Break to fresh year high
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July 24, 2025 12:18 AM UTC

Break above the .6550 congestion see prices extending gains from the .6454 low of last week to reach fresh year high at the .6600 level

July 23, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 24th
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July 23, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - In the lower end of the recent range
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July 23, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June, whi

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited downside tests
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July 23, 2025 3:51 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.3600 has bounced from 1.3575

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 24th
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July 23, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

PMIs a focus ahead of the ECB meeting
ECB likely to be uneventful with latest ECB bank lending survey encouraging
US claims data likely to be of more interest than home sales
JPY still has upside scope despite political risks

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring year highs - daily studies improving
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July 23, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 0.6600

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for lower
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July 23, 2025 1:25 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have met buying interest just above support at 146.00

...
Food Prices Lifted South Africa Inflation to 3.0% YoY in June
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July 23, 2025 12:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on July 23 that annual inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in June from 2.8% in May as food prices reached a 15-month high coupled with elevated restaurant and health services prices. The inflation is still within South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Under pressure
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July 23, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Consolidation around congestion resistance at 1.6000 is giving way to a pullback

...
EZ HICP Preview (Aug 1): Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low?
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July 23, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

HICP, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation possibly accentuating Council divides.  Despite adverse energy base effects, we see the flash July HICP staying at June’s 2.0% but up from May’s eig

Psychology for major markets Jul 23
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July 23, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

USD softer after US/Japan trade deal announced

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 23rd
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July 23, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Quiet calendar allows medium term adjustments
JPY still has some upside scope with U.S. Japan Trade Deal
CHF remains overvalued
NOK has scope for recovery

Chart USD/CHF Update: Poised for further losses
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July 23, 2025 8:32 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower

...
Trump Deals: Japan, Philippines and Indonesia
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July 23, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

•    Other countries cannot be guaranteed to get a Japan style deal, both as Japan is the key geopolitical ally in the Asia pivot against China and as Trump is keen to agree deals by August 1.  India and Taiwan are trying to finalize deals, but the EU is more difficult.  China 90 day deadlin

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower
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July 23, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 98.00 has given way to renewed selling interest

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher
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July 23, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.1700 has given way to the anticipated break above 1.1700

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited gains
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July 23, 2025 7:34 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3500 has reached 1.3545