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June 19, 2026
Brazil: Slowing Pace of Cuts and BRL Strength
June 19, 2026 6:55 AM UTC
· Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 14.25%, but received critiques from the market by raising end 2027 CPI inflation from 3.5% to 3.7% and talking about Q1 2028 in the relevant policy horizon. We feel that BCB still wants to leave the door open to further cuts in 2026, given how restrict
June 18, 2026
Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April
June 18, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum
June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE avoids hawkish surprise, cross drifting up off range floor
June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC
BoE delivers the expected 7-2 vote for unchanged
Small lift for EUR/GBP on confirmation and lack of hawkish surprise
Overall, recent action remains largely technical driven with the recent measured range bounce
BOE: Gang of 6 and Steady 2026 Rates
June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC
Though Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in calling for a one off 25bps risk management hike, 6 MPC members feel that disinflation is showing through and a soft economy and labor market warrants waiting to see energy prices and potential 2nd round effects. This gang of 6 also feels that markets have ti