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June 12, 2026

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jun 15-19
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise 
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks

North American Summary and Highlights 12 June
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 7:55 PM UTC

Overview - FX trade was cautious with traders uncertain whether a Middle East peace deal would be reached over the weekend. 

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, Jun 15-19
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise 
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced beneath fresh year high
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

The anticipated test above strong resistance within the 1.3985 - 1.4000 range has posted a fresh year high around 1.4023

Preview: Due June 15 - U.S. May Industrial Production - Improvement in trend to continue
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 2:58 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% increase in April industrial production with a 0.3% increase in manufacturing, the latter seeing a fifth straight gain to confirm a positive trend. 

U.S. Preliminary June Michigan CSI - Rebounds from a very weak May final as inflation expectations correct lower
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

The preliminary June Michigan CSI at 48.9 has seen a surprising bounce from May’s final and record low of 44.8 but is not far off May’s preliminary of 48.2. Gasoline prices remain high but have slipped from May’s highs though the dip in May’s final now looks overstated.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

The break below 0.7000 to 0.6980 has given way to a sharp bounce to congestion resistance at 0.7050

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy beneath the 160.72 current year high
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Cautious trade beneath strong resistance at the 160.72 current year high of 30 April has given way to a sharp USD- and JPY-driven fall

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Higher in CAD-driven trade
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 11:02 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp push higher in CAD-driven trade

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

The Strait of Hormuz Question
ECB Insurance Hike
Bank of Canada On hold with balanced tone
UK GDP Upside Surprises Persist
U.S. May CPI Shows Surprising fall in transport services 

...
EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Psychology for major markets June 12
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 9:33 AM UTC

Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalized

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 12th
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 9:31 AM UTC

Market dares to dream as oil breaks lower into w/e on deal hopes
FX more cautious in terms of paring back the haven support, held at pair/resistance areas

Chart USD/CHF Update: Sharp pullback
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 8:33 AM UTC

The break above congestion resistance at 0.8000 has been pushed back from 0.8015 in both USD- and CHF-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Spike higher not sustained
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 8:21 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 100.00 has given way to a spike higher to 100.31

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break back above 1.1550

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy in range
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The anticipated break back above congestion resistance at 1.3400 has been pushed back from 1.3430

Chartbook: Chart JP Nikkei Update: Consolidate break to fresh all-time high
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath the 59332 February high gave way to break in Q2 to reach fresh all-time high at 68786 in early-June

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Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario.   In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts.  10yr

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UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started.  Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since

EUR/USD flows: And now the wait
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Markets moved to recent oil floor and recent key pair/dollar resistance on the initial headlines
Now in waiting mode to see if this one actually delivers, Iran yet to declare final decision

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 June
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 6:13 AM UTC

IRGC vows "regret-inducing" response

USD/JPY flows: Up and Down on headlines
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

Back and forth headline

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jun 12th
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 4:55 AM UTC

UK GDP Upside Surprises To Reverse?
DXY Choppy From Geopolitics
USD/JPY Within reach of 160.72 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Higher in consolidation from 1.3300 support
Freemium Article

June 12, 2026 2:10 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 1.3300 support and break above the 1.3400 resistance opening up room for extension to 1.3450 congestion

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