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November 19, 2025
FOMC Minutes from October 29 and data postponements reinforce doubts over a December move
November 19, 2025 8:03 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from October 29 state that participants expressed strongly differing views over what policy decision would be appropriate in December. With the Labor Department today announcing that the forthcoming non-farm payroll for September will be the last before the December 10 FOMC meeting, the
Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend modestly positive
November 19, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
We expect September durable goods orders to increase by 1.4% with a 0.5% increase ex transport, a fifth straight modest rise in the latter showing a clearly if not strongly positive trend.
South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024
November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Responding to lower mortgage rates
November 19, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
We expect October existing home sales to increase by 1.0% to 4.10m, extending a 1.5% rise in September to reach the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August
November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise, of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag
U.S. August trade deficit slips back after bounce in July, still in correction from inflated pre-tariff deficits
November 19, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
August’s delayed trade deficit of $59.55bn is narrower than expected, down significantly from July’s $78.5bn, but still marginally above June’s $59.09bn. Despite July’s bounce, the deficit remains in a correction from the inflated pre-tariff levels of Q1 which saw a record deficit of $136.42
FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 19th
November 19, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
UK CPI Review: Down from Likely Peak?
November 19, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
It does seem as if the September CPI outcome (a third successive and lower-than-expected outcome of 3.8%) will prove to be the inflation peak. Indeed, the just released October figure fell a little less than the consensus but in line with BoE thinking, to 3.6%, helped by favourable energy base eff
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 19th
November 19, 2025 4:30 AM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited