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February 10, 2026
UK CPI Preview (Feb18): Fresh and Marked Fall to Resume as Core to Hit New Cycle-Low?
February 10, 2026 11:35 AM UTC
UK policy makers may not be able to say they have won the war against inflation, but a clear victory may be seen in the batter likely in the next few months with a likely return to the 2% target by April These projected falls are likely to commence with the looming January numbers (Figure 1) where a
EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump
February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
· Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action. Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,
February 09, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. February S and P PMIs - Manufacturing significantly stronger, Services marginally so
February 9, 2026 6:32 PM UTC
We expect improvement in February’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 53.5 from 52.4, with services seeing only a modest increase to 53.0 from 52.7.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
February 9, 2026 4:26 PM UTC
We expect December durable goods orders to fall by 5.0% after a 5.3% increase in November, the reversal led by aircraft after a strong November increase. Ex transport we expect a 0.4% increase, matching the gain in November.
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.