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August 18, 2026

Chart USD/CAD Update: Any break above 1.3900 to remain limited
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 3:59 PM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.3845 low of 17 August is giving way to a break higher

Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC

We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced. 

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 19
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Australian Q2 Wage Growth Under Spotlight
May Kill Room for Aussie to extend gains
Can Intervention Keep the Lid on USD/JPY

U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - new long end yield highs jangle nerves
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Push out in long end US yields to refresh post 2007 highs 
May start to jangle nerves as risk mkt emerge from low vol summer-happy mood

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

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U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pushing higher
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated break above 159.50

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U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.

U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 18
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 9:06 AM UTC

Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time - though tensions start to show
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective

Chart USD/CHF Update: Back in range
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 8:37 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.8080 has given way to a bounce

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Back in range - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

The break below 99.50 has not been sustained

Psychology for major markets Aug 18
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Reality Kicking In

Chart EUR/USD Update: Turning away from resistance - studies remain positive
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

The test of resistance within congestion around 1.1600 and the 1.1620~ weekly high of 15 June is giving way to a pullback

Chart GBP/USD Update: Meeting selling pressure
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 7:28 AM UTC

The anticipated break above the 1.3558 monthly high of 15 July has not been seen

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China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 7:23 AM UTC

China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

USD/JPY flows: USD Bid on Sour Risk
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 5:06 AM UTC

USD trading higher

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 18
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 4:40 AM UTC

Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time, for now
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective

AUD/USD flows: Risk Turning Sour
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 4:10 AM UTC

Risk Turning Sour

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring July high
Freemium Article

August 18, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.3475 low has seen gains to retest the 1.3550/58, July high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Still scope to extend gains
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 1:42 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the 1.1600 level but pressure remains firmly on the upside

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pressuring 159.50 resistance
Paying Article

August 18, 2026 12:55 AM UTC

Consolidation see prices extending choppy trade at the 159.50 congestion but pressure remains on the upside

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