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July 17, 2026
ECB: Bark No Bite
July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher. We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t
July 16, 2026
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 16, 2026 4:22 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 16, 2026 4:21 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
July 16, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
July 16, 2026 2:20 PM UTC
We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.
U.S. June Pending Home Sales and July NAHB Homebuilders' Index both weaker
July 16, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
The latest data suggests some weakness in the housing sector as rising inflation worries put upward pressure on mortgage rates, with slippage in June pending home sales and July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index.
U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges
July 16, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k from