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November 04, 2026
U.S. September trade deficit narrows marginally but wider in real terms
November 4, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
September’s trade deficit of $105.0bn from $105.9bn surprisingly narrowed marginally from August despite a wider advance goods deficit released earlier. Still, the data confirms a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in Q3.
U.S. October ADP Employment - Hints at upside payroll risk
November 4, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
October’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 86k is on the firm side of expectations and exactly matches September’s (revised from 90k) so the data is presumably reasonably representative of trend. The number is stronger than our payroll forecast of 45k private, 50k overall.
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
EZ CPI Review - Inflation Increase Will Help Cement December Hike
November 4, 2026 10:58 AM UTC
Rising oil and gas prices drove annual headline inflation to 4%, a three year high, from 3.8% in September. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.5% while services rose to 3.3% highlighting that this inflation upsurge so far remains an energy story. The breakdown of the flash estimate showed the increas
November 03, 2026
Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.