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January 28, 2026
FOMC Pauses With Risks Seen Diminished
January 28, 2026 8:33 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December. We continue to expect two 25bps easings this year, coming in June and September.
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, more positive on economy, two dovish dissents
January 28, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing, from Miran, as was widely expected, and Waller, which was less so. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December.
Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate But Uncertainty Heightened
January 28, 2026 4:42 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and continues to see the current policy rate as appropriate, Governor Macklem stating updated economic forecasts have not changed significantly since October. However in highlighting heightened uncertainty the statement appears to leave ri
Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. November Trade Balance - Narrower October deficit looks unsustainable
January 28, 2026 1:09 PM UTC
We expect a November trade deficit of $47.0bn, up from October’s $29.35bn which was the lowest since June 2009 and which looks unsustainably low, but still slightly narrower than September’s $48.14bn, which was itself the narrowest since March 2020.
Russia GDP Growth Preview: 2025 GDP Growth Will Hit Around 1%
January 28, 2026 11:09 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, we expect Russian economy will grow by around 1.0% in 2025 as Q4 growth will likely hit 0.6%-0.7% y/y. The GDP growth figures are expected to be announced on February 6. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressi
Psychology for major markets Jan 28
January 28, 2026 9:23 AM UTC
EUR/USD – Partial retrace of the few figures rally since the beginning of the week. Quite common for such a parabolic move to retrace partially but sentiment does not seem to be changing tides soon.
USD/JPY – The sharp correction is taking a breather before the all important FOMC meeting. JGB yie
Trump’s Problems
January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns. Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri