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February 13, 2026
Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks
February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the
This week's five highlights
February 13, 2026 12:00 PM UTC
U.S. January Employment Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
This Week's Fed Speakers
BoC Minutes Show Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected
UK GDP Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue
Landslide Victory for Japan LDP
February 12, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%
February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc
U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Sharp fall was signaled by pending home sales
February 12, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
January existing home sales are well below expectations with a fall of 8.4% to 3.91m, the lowest level since September 2024. Bad weather may have played a part but given that pending home sales fell by 9.3% in December, weather is unlikely to be the whole story.
U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's
February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.
Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 12, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.