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October 04, 2024

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited
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October 4, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 5.4000

Chart USD/MXN Update: Poised for deeper losses
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October 4, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 19.5000 is extending

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish

October 4, 2024 3:46 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.3550 has reached 1.3590

Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.

FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for still lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

No change to the bearish tone

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Jobs report superb, inflation might undershoot target
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement to reach 1.0960

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains in USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

Cautious trade above 146.00 has given way to a sharp USD- and JPY-driven rally

U.S. September Employment - Charts and table
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

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U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for still higher
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 102.00 has given way to a sharp break higher

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

Psychology for major markets October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD staying fiirm, employment report likely to be supportive 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
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October 4, 2024 10:02 AM UTC

Little change, as overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

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BOE: Gradual to Activist?
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

The contrast between BOE Bailey and Pill comments suggest a debate is occurring in the BOE over more easing than a simple quarterly pace of 25bps cuts.  This is not just about data, but some members could be putting more weight on forward looking forecasts than current inflation trends.  The Decem

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 8:17 AM UTC

Anticipated tests higher have met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 0.8550

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced above 1.0980/00 - studies under pressure
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

The anticipated test lower has met buying interest above strong support at the 1.0980 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.1000

Chart GBP/USD Update: Gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

October 4, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion at 1.3100 has met buying interest around 1.3090

USD, JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n helped by Ishiba comments
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

JPY recovers helped by Ishiba announcing economic package to escape deflation, but quiet market likely ahead of the US employment report.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.3100 level, room for lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.3100 level as prices unwind oversold intraday studies 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.1025/00 support
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 1:37 AM UTC

Extending sharp pullback from the 1.1200/14 high to retest support at the 1.1025/00, September lows

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating retest of 147.21, September high
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Break above the 146.00 level has seen extension to retest the 147.21, September high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Weighing on .6222/00 support
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:32 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the .6250 support see room to further extend losses from the .6370/80 highs

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 12:16 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and clear break of the .6870 support see room to extend pullback from the .6942 high

October 03, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 4th
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

North American Summary and Highlights 3 October
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - The main move of the day was dip in the GBP after comments from BoE Governor Bailey. CHF was also softer after Swiss CPI data. 

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Need rates down by a lot over next 12 months
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 5:31 PM UTC

Chart USD/CAD Update: Reversal higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

October 3, 2024 3:54 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have not been seen

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 4th
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 3:02 PM UTC

Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl

USD, GBP flows: USD firm on ISM but move looking extended
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

ISM generall strong except for employment index. USD may be toppy ahead of tomorrow's employment data

U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations

Chart AUD/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

No change to the bearish tone

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China: Any Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis?
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.  China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis.  Asia widespread banking cris

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Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 101.50 has given way to anticipated gains

U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating test below 1.4900 - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

The anticipated break below the 1.4900 Fibonacci retracement ahs bounced smartly from 1.4875

FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 3rd
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 8:56 AM UTC

ISM the focus in more USD positive environment
Risk recovery could be derailed by Middle East events
JPY weakness getting extreme again, aided by Ueda and Ishiba comments
CHF to see further declines if risk stabilises

Chart USD/CHF Update: Higher in range
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade above 0.8450 has given way to a USD- and CHF-driven bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Approaching strong support at 1.0980/00
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.1050 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart GBP/USD Update: Accelerating lower
Freemium Article

October 3, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

Steady intraday losses have given way to a sharp break down

GBP flows: GBP falls on Bailey comments
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 7:18 AM UTC

GBP falls back as Bailey indicates prospect of more aggressive easing

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

JPY weakness extends on dovish comments from Ishiba against background of better regional risk sentiment

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, room to 1.3230/00
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 1:54 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 1.3266 support see room to extend losses from the 1.3434 high