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December 20, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 20 December
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 8:26 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell after weaker than expected core PCE price data. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 4:43 PM UTC

Little change, as the pullback from the 1.4465 current year high of 19 December gives way to choppy trade beneath resistance at 1.4400

FX Weekly Strategy: December 23rd - January 3rd
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 4:29 PM UTC

Limited data and events to move the market
JPY weakness is extreme – risks on the JPY upside
USD strength hard to oppose, but Trump effect could be negative
GBP strength hard to square with economic weakness

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Policy not far from neutral
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 3:44 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President, Beth Hammack, has issued a statement explaining her recent hawkish dissent.

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Hopeful recent inflation strength was just a bump
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 3:32 PM UTC

Daly was hawkish, Williams balanced. Now Goolsbee is sounding somewhat dovish.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating losses - background under pressure
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Little change, as the bounce from congestion support at 0.6200 gives way to consolidation

Chart USD/JPY Update: September gains meeting selling interest
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:45 PM UTC

The anticipated break above resistance at 156.65/00 has met selling interest at congestion around 158.00

Continuum Economics Calendar January 2025
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar January 2025.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced beneath fresh year high
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Choppy trade has posted a fresh year high at 108.54

Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since April
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:17 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact. 

U.S. Fed's Williams - Economy a touch stronger than expected
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:03 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' tone is reasonably balanced, though notes stronger than expected economic data.

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U.S. November Core PCE Prices significantly softer than Core CPI
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CPI, easing some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices. Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are als

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Surprising Move: CBR Held Key Rate at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 20 that it held the key rate constant at 21%. The CBR emphasized in its statement that monetary conditions tightened more significantly than envisaged by the October key rate decision, and it would continue to eval

U.S. Fed's Daly - Recent decision was a close call
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Fed's Daly, not known for being a hawk, sounds quite hawkish today.

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December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 12:00 PM UTC

Fed Policy Easing Slowing
BoJ Serves A Nothing Burger
A Dovish Hold for BoE
Norges Bank Caution Prevails
Nearing the End for Sweden Riksbank?

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy trade - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

The anticipated test of support at 1.4900 has extended to 1.4875

Psychology for major markets December 20th
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

USD remains firm, particularly against the JPY, GBP falling back

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 20th
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

US to hold most of its post-FOMC gains
Some scope for EUR recovery based on yield spread metrics
JPY still struggling
GBP has scope to fall further

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EMFX Outlook: Hit From Tariffs, Before Divergence
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

·        EM currencies on a spot basis will remain on the defensive in H1 2025, as we see the U.S. threatening and then introducing tariffs on China imports – 30% against the current average of 20%. China’s response will likely include a Yuan (CNY) depreciation to the 7.65 area on USD/CN

Chart USD/CHF Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade above congestion support at 0.8950

Chart EUR/USD Update: Any gains to remain limited - studies under pressure
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 8:39 AM UTC

Little change, as rising intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 8:31 AM UTC

Anticipated minor tests higher have been pushed back from 1.2650

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DM FX Outlook: USD to edge lower despite high yields
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: Recent strong US data has bolstered the USD, with the Trump election victory also supportive due to expectations of tax cuts and tariffs which are seen leading to less Fed easing than previously expected. While we still see the USD weakening through 2025 as Fed easing red

GBP flows: GBP stays soft after retail sales
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 7:45 AM UTC

GBP stayn on the back foot after mildly softer retail sales with the MPC vote and statement suggesting downside risks

USD/JPY flows: Stronger CPI
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

Japan November National headline CPI +2.9% 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 20th
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 5:09 AM UTC

US to hold most of its post-FOMC gains
Some scope for EUR recovery based on yield spread metrics
JPY still struggling
GBP has scope to fall further but retail sales may be mildly supportive

AUD/USD flows: Resume downward traction
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 3:56 AM UTC

Aussie looks set to test yearly low again

Chart GBP/USD Update: Weighing on 1.2487 Novermber low, break in focus
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:16 AM UTC

 Prices remain under pressure to extend the breakdown from the 1.2600 level to retest the 1.2487, November low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending consolidation above 1.0331 low
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 2:01 AM UTC

 Turned up just above the 1.0331 November YTD lo, as prices consolidate the breakdown from the 1.0448 support

USD/JPY flows: Verbal intervention Resurfaces
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Kato with verbal intervention 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:59 AM UTC

Extending sharp rally through the 156.00 level and 156.75 high of November to reach towards the 158.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating above .5600, but still vulnerable
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

Steadied at the .5608 low as prices consolidate sharp breakdown through the .5750/40 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6200 low, room to extend losses
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:22 AM UTC

Reached fresh low for the year at the .6200 level

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Japan Outlook: Lukewarm Japan and BoJ
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

·        Due to the slow recovery in consumption, 2024 GDP has been revised lower to -0.5%. Private consumption will continue to grow throughout 2025/26 gradually as business price/wage setting behavior gently shift and Japanese consumers adapting to higher inflation. Wage growth in 2025 wil

December 19, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 20th
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

US to hold most of its post-FOMC gains
Some scope for EUR recovery based on yield spread metrics
JPY still struggling
GBP has scope to fall further but retail sales may be mildly supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 19 December
Freemium Article

December 19, 2024 8:45 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced, led first by USD/JPY after the press conference from BoJ’s Ueda, and later by the GBP, with the BoE vote to leave rates on hold seeing three dovish dissents. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 4:29 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a fresh test higher

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 20th
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 4:19 PM UTC

US to hold most of its post-FOMC gains
Some scope for EUR recovery based on yield spread metrics
JPY still struggling
GBP has scope to fall further but retail sales may be mildly supportive

Chart USD/CAD Update: Meeting selling pressure at fresh 2024 year high
Freemium Article

December 19, 2024 4:14 PM UTC

May 2021 gains have extended further to post a fresh 2024 high around 1.4465

U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Picking up, but for how long?
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

November existing home sales have shown a stronger than expected 4.8% rise to 4.15m, though pending home sales data had hinted at a strong ruse. A recent bounce in housing demand has been supported by Fed easing. If Fed easing is now starting to slow, further gains may be modest. 

Preview: Due December 20 - U.S. November Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We expect November to see a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index, underperforming a 0.3% core CPI as is usually the case but was not so in September and October. We expect 0.5% increases in personal income and spending. 

U.S. Initial Claims move back down and GDP revised up, but Philly Fed weak
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 2:15 PM UTC

Initial claims at 220k in December’s non-farm payroll survey week have slipped back from last week’s 8-week high and suggest the labor market remains healthy. Q3 GDP has seen an unexpected and broad-based upward revision to 3.1% from 2.8% while the core PCE price index has nudged marginally high

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Western Europe Outlook: Divergent Policy Thinking
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

·       In the UK, perhaps the main story in our outlook is that we retain our below-consensus GDP picture for next year, with growth of 1.0% and with downside risks. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 100 bp and maybe faster and beyond. 
·       As for Sweden, d

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Coming under pressure
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 12:55 PM UTC

Consolidation above 1.5000 has given way to a break

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BoE Review: A Dovish Hold?
Freemium Article

December 19, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

An expected unchanged decision left Bank Rate at 4.75% but what was not foreseen was three dissents in favor of a cut with a further member advocating a more activist strategy (presumably ahead).  Overall, the BoE adhered to a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropria

GBP flows: GBP slips on 6-3 vote for no change
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 12:25 PM UTC

The MPC voted 6-3 for no chance, with the 3 votes for a cut one more than expected. Still scope for the makret to price in more easing suggesting GBP downside risks

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DM Rates Outlook: Policy and Spread Divergence
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 12:07 PM UTC

•    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can decline initially as the Fed finishes easing (Figure 1), but as the sense grows that the rate cut cycle is stopping, we see the 2yr swinging to a small premium versus the Fed Funds rate – as the market debates the risks of a future tightening cycle.  For 10y

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating above fresh 2024 low - studies under pressure
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 11:55 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended in sharp selling interest to post a fresh 2024 year low at 0.6200

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending September gains in USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 11:24 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have extended in both USD- and JPY-driven trade