North American Summary and Highlights 19 October

October 19, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

Overview - It was a quiet start to the week with the USD making marginal gains, led by USD/JPY. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in CAD-driven trade

October 19, 2026 4:01 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support within the 1.4085 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.4100

Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further

October 19, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 20

October 19, 2026 3:30 PM UTC

France remains in focus, even if positioning and expiries help to cushion
USD long positioning was back to the extremes pre-CPI-reaction; euro crosses still struggle
A political winter of discontent asks FX questions of who comes out on top - CHF? JPY?

Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative

October 19, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market. 

U.S. October NAHB Homebuilders Index - Lowest since 2012 as mortgage rates rise

October 19, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

October’s NAHB homebuilders index at 29 from 32 is the lowest since June 2012 and suggests that rising mortgage rates are having a significant impact on housing demand.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher

October 19, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh push higher

EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/USD flows - who comes out on top in a winter of discontent?

October 19, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

Euro propped by positioning, expiries, though crosses still slip
Near-term stretched action aside, big picture focus could increasingly revolve around politics of discontent
CHF carry continues to be challenged, and retraced, by its socio-economic safety

Chart USD/JPY Update: Price action remains cautious

October 19, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 158.00 is giving way to a drift higher

Canada September CPI - Softer core rates will comfort the BoC

October 19, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% overall but this is softer than the 3.2% expected by the market. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates all moved lower. This suggests that despite concerns over oil, the BoC need feel no urgency to tighten at this month’s meeting.