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April 21, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?
April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led. Indeed, thi
UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms. Admittedly, headlines may be formed around
April 20, 2026
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact
April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,
Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?
April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing. Indeed, part of a broad
Canada March CPI - Energy bounces but subdued elsewhere
April 20, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
Canadian CPI increased to 2.4% yr/yr in March from 1.8% in February but the increase was less steep than expected. Seasonally adjusted the monthly gain was 0.5% but with ex food and energy CPI unchanged, suggesting a subdued underlying picture.
Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued
April 20, 2026 12:16 PM UTC
We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.