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March 12, 2026
CBRT Pauses Easing Cycle; Policy Rate Held at 37% Due to Surges in Oil Prices and CPI Increase in February
March 12, 2026 8:20 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on March 12. This decision effectively pauses the bank’s easing cycle in response to heightened market volatility and rising energy costs driven by the ongoing war in Iran. While February's
BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?
March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change. But while the MPC as a wh
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
March 12, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect January durable goods orders to see a second straight moderate decline, of 0.6%, as a November surge in aircraft orders continues to correct, but ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 12, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
Preview: Due March 13 - Canada February Employment - Employment and Labor force due for rebounds in Ontario
March 12, 2026 2:08 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 50k in February, more than fully reversing a 24.8k decline in January to keep trend modestly positive. However we expect an even stronger rebound in the labor force from a decline in January to lift the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.5%, while remaining
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q4 GDP - Marginally stronger on housing
March 12, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q4 GDP to 1.5% in the preliminary (second) estimate from 1.4% in the advance (first) release, led by an upward revision to housing investment to a 1.7% rise from a 1.5% decline.
U.S. January trade deficit shows continued volatility, Initial Claims still low, January housing data mixed
March 12, 2026 1:21 PM UTC
A significantly narrower US trade deficit on January of $54.5bn from $72.9bn is positive for Q1 GDP and led by a rise in exports, though the large swings in the deficit remain led by a few volatile items and trend is unclear. Initial claims at 213k from 214k remain low while January housing data is
Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran
March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC
• The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely. China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from