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September 29, 2026
U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip
September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC
September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.
The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track
September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
September 29, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
Canada July GDP - Pause after strong June, heading for a respectable Q3
September 29, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP is unchanged, in line with the preliminary indication given with June data. This marks a pause after a strong 0.4% increase in June, which was revised up from 0.3%. The preliminary estimate for August is for a moderate increase of 0.2%, leaving underlying momentum intact, but fresh
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 29, 2026 12:20 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC
Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. September ADP Employment - Signs of improvement
September 29, 2026 12:03 PM UTC
We expect an 85k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to September 5, the week before the monthly survey, was 20k and picking up. This implies a monthly increase slightly stronger than 80k.
AUD/USD, AUD/NZD flows - modest sell fact extension out of RBA, CPI in focus
September 29, 2026 6:47 AM UTC
RBA hikes as expected remains ready to do as needed in terms of further tightening
Modest sell the fact for AUD, extending the pre-meeting tone
CPI data the next big focus and to remain the key data release going forward
September 28, 2026
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD - Counter specific issues to the fore
September 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
CHF remains pressured on its unicorn policy stance
EUR/GBP sold back after failed resistance test, mkt very short GBP
AUD eyes RBA, with a hike fully priced in and so attention on any forward guidance from here. A tricky balancing act ...