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July 01, 2026
EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues
July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking. The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o
Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks
July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC
El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning.
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l
June 30, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade
June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen
UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative
June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones. This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer. Such shots of real growth ar