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August 28, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 28 August
Freemium Article

August 28, 2026 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced on a hawkish speech from Fed’s Warsh, which raised the risk of a September tightening. 

U.S. March 2026 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revised Down by a Marginal 79k
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 6:09 PM UTC

The preliminary estimate for the revision to the March 2026 non-farm payroll benchmark was overshadowed by today’s speech from Fed’s Warsh. It turned out to be marginal, a negative revision of 79k, a stark contrast to a 911k downward preliminary estimate for the March 2025 benchmark revision ann

September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 4:19 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf

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September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf

DM Data Weekly Sep 1-4
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

US Payrolls data arrives at a time when the Fed seems to need reasons not to tighten rather than to tighten
EZ HICP also comes as the ECB is doubling down on Sep, and a hawkish minority is looking for more restriction, faster
BoE Bailey speech watched to see if the BoE remains a dovish outlier
G20 also

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 1-4
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 3:53 PM UTC

Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m

Chart USD/CAD Update: Higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

August 28, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 1.3850 has given way to a sharp break higher in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar firms out of Warsh; GBP the rates laggard?
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

Warsh in line with colleagues in characterising policy as unrestrictive and focus on prices, with work to do
Follows an ECB also primed to hike and with a minority their also moving more hawkish
BoE (and GBP?) might be the laggard unless Bailey also changes tact next week

U.S. Fed's Warsh - Must be confident inflation moving towards objective
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

Fed's Warsh's Jackson Hole comments are consistent with a Fed considering whether tightening will be needed.

U.S. Fed's Warsh - Must be confident inflation moving towards objective
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

Fed's Warsh's Jackson Hole comments are consistent with a Fed considering whether tightening will be needed.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring 0.7200 - studies remain positive
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached congestion resistance at 0.7200

Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

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Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

Canada Q2 GDP shows strength in exports and domestic demand
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP increase of 3.3% annualized is in line with expectations but the breakdown is more positive than we expected with a 3.9% increase in domestic demand. A positive contribution from net exports added 4.4% to GDP but this was more than fully offset by a sharp negative 0f 4.9% from inve

Chart USD/JPY Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test higher in JPY-driven trade

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Gains to remain limited - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 11:33 AM UTC

The test of support at the 98.60 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a steady drift higher, as daily stochastics and the daily Tension Indicator turn bullish

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2026
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2026.

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

August 28, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Bessent’s Buybacks
Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute
U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side
U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Shows Widest post-tariff deficit
UK's inflation momentum

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 28
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 9:36 AM UTC

Tokyo CPI Unlikely to Sway BoJ
But USD/JPY Could Have a Limited Test Upwards
Canada Q2 GDP Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports

Chart USD/CHF Update: Quiet trade
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 8:25 AM UTC

Consolidation above 0.8050 has given way to a drift lower as intraday studies turn down

Psychology for major markets Aug 28
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 8:16 AM UTC

Waiting for Jackson Hole

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Quiet trade - studies turning higher
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 8:09 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation above congestion support at 99.00

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 7:36 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

August 28, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.3600

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Waiting for Warsh; French, Spanish HICP bounce
Paying Article

August 28, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Still sidelined ahead of Warsh
Early HICP print bounces keep mkt looking for Sep hike

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