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June 15, 2026
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to correct lower, but ex transport trend positive
June 15, 2026 5:25 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods orders to fall by 4.0% overall after a rise of 8.0% in April, the moves led by volatility in aircraft. Ex transport we expect an increase of 0.8%, slightly slower than three straight gains in excess of 1.0%, but maintaining a positive trend.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Jun 16th
June 15, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised.
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed
Preview: Due June 16 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Slightly lower on volatile multiples
June 15, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We look for May housing starts and permits to both see modest declines, with starts down by 2.4% to 1.43m and permits down by 0.2% to 1.42m. The detail is likely to see gains in the single family sector outweighed by corrections lower in multiples.
U.S. May Industrial Production - Pause in a positive trend
June 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC
May industrial production with a 0.1% increase and manufacturing unchanged was on the weak side of expectations. Near term revisions were positive but revisions further back were negative. Capacity utilization at 76.2% was as expected and the highest since July 2025.
U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC
· Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027. However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1). O
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Jun 15-19
June 15, 2026 9:10 AM UTC
US-Iran deal moves forward, albeit with detail still to pin down and ongoing external tensions
Dollar regains some break levels, albeit waiting to hear from the Fed
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks a
EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, USD flows: $80 and some breaks regained; Swiss avoid risky vote
June 15, 2026 6:47 AM UTC
Oil back to $80 as deal to be signed, albeit with some can kick on details
EUR/USD regains 1.16, Nasdaq back above it's recent break lower
Swiss also avoid event risk, no on population cap, bolsters CHF