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June 22, 2026
Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
June 22, 2026 6:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 22, 2026 5:37 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
U.S. Outlook: Consumers Looking Vulnerable
June 22, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
• The US economy is showing resilience with strength in investment offsetting a gradual slowing in consumption, though consumer spending, which is running well ahead of real disposable income, looks set to slow further. This is likely to see the economy slow in the second half of 2026 even
EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate
June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca
Canada May CPI - Upside suprise corrects April's downside surprise
June 22, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
May Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.2% yr/yr from 2.8% is stronger than expected, offsetting a clear downside surprise in April, though the Bank of Canada’s core rates are mostly stable and close to the BoC’s 2.0% target, so we do not believe these numbers will cause significant alarm at the BoC,
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 22, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?
June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC
· Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to
Germany/France/Italy and Spain: Growth and Inflation Outlooks
June 22, 2026 10:25 AM UTC
· We have retained our 2026 GDP picture of 0.3% (Our Forecasts below) and actually pared back that for next year, with more and more signs that China is continuing to ship cheap products to Germany (lower energy prices post Iran war still help 2027). For France, we have made a 0.3% do
Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies
June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast. 12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s