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January 21, 2025
President Trump: Filling in the Blanks
January 21, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
While the new executive orders from president Trump were focused on immigration and energy issues, the threat of 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada by Feb 1 raises the stakes in North America negotiations in the coming weeks. China tariff threats will likely become more concreate in Q1, though
January 20, 2025
Preview: Due January 21 - Canada December CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
January 20, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr from 1.9%, the fall largely due to a temporary supse4cuion of the Goods and Services Tax that will run from Mid-December through Mid-February. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stated that the tax suspension is expected to move inflation down to a
Brazil Risk Premia and EM Debt
January 20, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Brazil debt market has two domestic crises rather than a spillover from the U.S. in the form of inflation and fiscal policy. Very restrictive BCB policy can help produce some disinflation and we forecast 4.1% for 2026, which some allow some rate cuts in H2. Brazil risk premium will likely be reduced
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, January 20th-24th
January 20, 2025 4:27 AM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains
January 19, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, January 20th-24th
January 19, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, January 20th-24th
January 19, 2025 6:00 PM UTC
Focus on Trump inauguration and any executive orders on tariffs
USD unlikely to benefit unless he goes ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico
GBP looks headed lower one way or another
JPY needs a BoJ rate hike to hold onto recent gains
January 17, 2025
Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs
January 17, 2025 5:29 PM UTC
We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.
SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December
January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th