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May 01, 2026
April 30, 2026
Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
April 30, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.
Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April
April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo
ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications
April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC
· Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike. If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike. We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi
Canada February GDP - Q1 looking in line with BoC forecast
April 30, 2026 2:00 PM UTC
February Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase was as predicted with January’s report with January revised at 0.1%. The preliminary estimate fir March is unchanged. This implies a 1.7% annualized increase in Q1, similar to a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate.
U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure
April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im
BoE Review: MPC Playing Its Cards Safely (For Now)?
April 30, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC last month and the same decision was both expected and delivered this time around but with only token fresh dissent, with Chief Economist Pill wanting an immediate hike from the current 3.75%. But splits were more evident in the individual MPC
Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile. Indeed, f