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December 18, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 18th
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 5:22 AM UTC

BoE likely to be more dovish than expected after latest data
Scope for EUR/GBP to test above 0.88
NOK looks too weak vs SEK and EUR
JPY may see a bounce ahead of BoJ

USD/JPY flows: Verbal Intervention Fruitless
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 5:19 AM UTC

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said the government is closely watching market developments, including movements in long-term rates

NZD/USD flows: Q3 GDP Back to Growth
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 2:14 AM UTC

New Zealand Q3 GDP y/y 1.3%, q/q 1.1%

Chart GBP/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from 1.3455 high
Freemium Article

December 18, 2025 1:37 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from the 1.3455 high as prices unwind overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from retest of 1.1800
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 1:20 AM UTC

Lower in consolidation from retest of 1.1800 level as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies to reach the 1.1700 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Turned up in consolidation at 154.45 support
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 12:49 AM UTC

Turned up from retest of 154.45 support as prices consolidate pullback from the 156.95 high of last week

Chart NZD/USD Update: Still supported, but room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 12:31 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains supported above the .5755/50 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Still heavy, room to extend pullback from .6685 high
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 12:20 AM UTC

Break of support at .6625 see prices extending to pressure the .6600 level

December 17, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 18th
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

BoE likely to be more dovish than expected after latest data
Scope for EUR/GBP to test above 0.88
NOK looks too weak vs SEK and EUR
JPY may see a bounce ahead of BoJ

North American Summary and Highlights 17 Dec
Freemium Article

December 17, 2025 8:19 PM UTC

Overview - GBP slipped on a softer than expected UK CPI. GBP/USD later reversed its losses but EUR/GBP remained firmer. 

Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ISM Services - Headline and prices paid to slow
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 6:56 PM UTC

We expect December’s ISM services index to slip to 52.0 from November’s 9-month high of 52.6. A weaker December  S and P services PMI suggests downside risk even if its level at 52.9 remained above November’s ISM services index.

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October and November Industrial Production - Net marginally positive
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 6:25 PM UTC

The Fed will release October and November industrial production together, having received key input data from the non-farm payrolls. We expect a 0.1% decline in October to be followed by a 0.2% increase in November, with manufacturing up by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Balanced above fresh year low - background under pressure
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 5:15 PM UTC

Steady selling interest has posted a fresh year low within support at the 17.8900 late-July 2024 weekly low and congestion around 18.0000

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South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

December 17, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.3720~ lows from August-September has given way to a bounce

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 18th
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 4:06 PM UTC

BoE likely to be more dovish than expected after latest data
Scope for EUR/GBP to test above 0.88
NOK looks too weak vs SEK and EUR
JPY may see a bounce ahead of BoJ

U.S. Fed's Waller - Dovish but not extremely so
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

Fed's Waller is dovish but recognises the need to maintain Fed independence.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 2:51 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.6650 is giving way to a drift lower

Chart USD/JPY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Cautious trade around strong support at the 154.34 weekly low of 5 December has given way to a bounce

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October Durable Goods Orders - Transport to slip, but ex transport trend positive
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

We expect October durable goods orders to decline by 2.0%, though ex transport we expect a sixth straight increase, by 0.4%.

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Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled

December 17, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Test of 1.6200 not sustained
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

The anticipated test above congestion resistance at 1.6200 has been pushed back from 1.6251

Psychology for major markets Dec 17
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

USD holding near the bottom end of recent ranges, GBP weaker

FX Daily Strategy: N America, December 17th
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

UK CPI a downside risk for GBP
Softer equities to weigh on riskier currencies
JPY to benefit in more risk negative conditions
AUD still represents value

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

December 17, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

Cautious/choppy trade around congestion support at 0.7950 is giving way to a bounce