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June 16, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 17 June
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 7:18 PM UTC

Overview - Tuesday FX trade was generally subdued with markets awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC decision. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced in strong resistance - background studies rising
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 3:51 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 1.3985 - 1.4025 strong resistance

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 17th
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

FOMC Dropping the easing bias
 U.S. May Retail Sales a pull back
Riksbank Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised
UK CPI Peaking

...
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias (update)
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 2:58 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, including those for

Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 1:53 PM UTC

Consolidation around 0.7075 has given way to a retest of congestion support at 0.7050

Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 1:53 PM UTC

We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would

Chart USD/JPY Update: Edging higher in range
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 160.00

U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts plunge, elsewhere moves were modest
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

May housing starts are sharply weaker than expected, down 15.4% to 1.177m, the weakest since May 2020 during the pandemic. However the fall was largely due to a 40.2% plunge in the volatile multiples sector. Single starts fell by a modest 1.9%. 

Chartbook: Chart GER 10 Year Yield: Yields to remain under pressure into the coming weeks
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 15-year high at 3.200%

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK/SEK flows: FX sleeping but oil is still moving
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:36 PM UTC

Pre-Fed intertia and as market digests two-way pull of deal impact
But oil is still active, extending the break lower and threatening bigger range shift
As such, mkt may later re-focus on ToT and oil trade narratives

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Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

 We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 10:46 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a drift higher

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 16th
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 9:37 AM UTC

Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ delivers the expected hike, later taper, and minor tweaked statement - little impact seen
RBA likewise largely on-message 
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed, market tread water prior

Psychology for major markets June 16
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

BoJ Hike, RBA Hold

Chartbook: Chart EUR/CHF: Potential for a corrective bounce, but long-term studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 8:52 AM UTC

The fall to fresh all-time lows around 0.9000 in March has given way to a steady bounce to 0.9275, before retreating to 0.9100 and posting a fresh bounce.

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 8:30 AM UTC

Cautious trade has bounced from 0.7920, with prices currently balanced around congestion resistance at 0.7950

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 8:11 AM UTC

The anticipated break below congestion support at 99.50 has proven short-lived

Chart EUR/USD Update: Potential for a minor test higher
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade just beneath congestion resistance at 1.1600

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 16, 2026 7:27 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.3435 has given way to a drift lower

...
China: Divided Economy
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC

·       Overall, growth remains unbalanced.  Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still.  However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption.  While the stimu

Chartbook: US Chart Gold (XAU): Consolidating above 4000, scope for break later
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

Gains at the start of Q2 reached 4890 high before turning lower in choppy trade to retrace all the gains from 4100 March low

USD/JPY, AUD/USD flows: 2 down with no big surprises, FOMC the bigger focus
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

No big surprises from BoJ or RBA
Dollar settles back from deal reaction, waits for next lead from FOMC

AUD/USD flows: Rate Unchanged
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 5:27 AM UTC

RBA keep rate unchanged at 4.35% 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jun 16th
Paying Article

June 16, 2026 5:05 AM UTC

Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised. 
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed

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