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September 21, 2026
Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship
September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 8:56 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0
September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
· Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West. The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. Regional ag
Chartbook: Chart USD/JPY: Corrective bounce expected to give way to renewed selling pressure
September 21, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Saw sharp losses from the 164.00 July high to correct between 38.2-50% of the rally from 140.00, April 2025 year low.
Rebound from the 153.00 low see prices retracing the two-legged losses to reach towards resistance at 158.00/158.45, congestion and 50% Fibonacci level, which is expected to cap. Br
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - jump in yen longs squeezed last week
September 21, 2026 7:13 AM UTC
Jump in yen longs, pulled dollar net closer to balance overall into big central bank meetings, setting up shif out
Mkt gets caught JPY long into the local USD/JPY lows and squeezed
NZD still long, has already illustrated contrary indicator selloff qualities
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: oil hoping on UN progress despite noise; France budget worries pressure
September 21, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, keeping overnight activity thin
Oil easing, hoping of diplomatic efforts at UN diplomacy
Background focus on French bond pressure on deficit/debt concerns
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 6:17 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
September 18, 2026
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing
September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing
September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.