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October 07, 2026
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:41 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October
October 7, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e
New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view
October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:55 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t
ECB won’t come to France’s rescue
October 7, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t
DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads
October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC
· The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium. However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move. Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti
October 06, 2026
BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on
October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn
BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on
October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn