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April 29, 2026
UK Political Risk – Bad Things Come in Threes?
April 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC
The biggest set of elections since the 2024 general election takes place on 7 May in the UK. Already, UK markets are fretting about the possible outcome, in particular that serious electoral damage to the Labour Party currently running the government could make it swing more to left and dilute fis
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Slightly stronger on the quarter, but slower yr/yr
April 29, 2026 11:59 AM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slightly firmer than the 0.7% seen in Q4 that was the slowest since Q2 2021 but still seeing the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
April 28, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 28, 2026 6:22 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
April 28, 2026 6:14 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense
April 28, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - February exports gain less sustainable that that of imports
April 28, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
Trade data has been volatile recently and advance goods data could have an impact on Q1 GDP expectations, with GDP data due on April 30. We expect a deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.5bn in February and $80.9bn in January.