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October 02, 2026
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Payrolls dulls urgency, 157 attracts even if euro still reluctant to bounce
October 2, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
Payrolls report largely softer than expected across the board
Tends to reinforce lack of urgency from some Fed members
USD/JPY reset to 157 expiry, euro more reluctant to bounce given France issues
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
EUR/CHF flows: Spread still going, cross back to recent lows; w/e key window?
October 2, 2026 8:28 AM UTC
OAT-bund spread still widening, if through OAT lagging rather than further selling; has all but met 150bp now
Weekend could be key for politicians to try and stem the snowball effect; failure to convince could just attract more pressure
EUR/CHF has been one pure expression of the regime shift this wee
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Pause before payrolls; Japan CPI high, EZ seen likewise
October 2, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
Big moves yesterday take a breather into payrolls
EUR/USD close to tagging 1.12 before bounce, USD/JPY off mildly after CPI, looking to expiries 157-158
EZ HICP (national prints already high) then payrolls; still watching France
October 01, 2026
Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates
October 1, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum
October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.