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December 03, 2024

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RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains from 105.62 low
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 105.62 low of Friday to reach strong resistance at 106.50, April high

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Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024. 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 4:57 AM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

AUD/USD flows: Positive sentiment
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 4:30 AM UTC

The broad risk sentiment is positive on Tuesday's Asia session

USD/JPY flows: Retesting 150 figure
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 2:10 AM UTC

USD/JPY closed below 150 on Monday and is retesting it on Tuesday's Asia session

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, 1.2615/00 support at risk
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 1:51 AM UTC

Sharp pullback from the 1.2750 high see prices unwinding overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart EUR/USD Update: Sharp pullback from the 1.0600/10 resistance
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 1:32 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1.0600/10 resistance has given way to sharp pullback to retrace gains from the 1.0331, November low

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at 149.10/00 congestion, room for lower later
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Further extend losses last week to reach the 149.10/00 congestion area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating retest of .6440/34 lows
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 12:22 AM UTC

No follow-through on retest the .6440/34 low as prices extend choppy trade within a 3-week range area

December 02, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

U.S. Fed's Williams - Appropriate to move rates to neutral over time
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 9:41 PM UTC

While non-committal on timing, Fed's Williams' tone is similar to those of Waller and Bostic earlier today.

North American Summary and Highlights 2 December
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was little changed, lifted by ISM manufacturing data but later hit by comments from Fed’s Waller. 

U.S. Fed's Waller - Leaning towards a December rate cut
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:28 PM UTC

Fed's Waller's latest remarks suggest that surprisingly strong forthcoming data will be needed to prevent a December easing.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Options open but not hawkish
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 5:41 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is keeping his policy options open with key data approaching but his tone is not hawkish.

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France: The Beleaguered Consumer Hit Further by Fiscal Impasse
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 5:07 PM UTC

As France’s political deadlock intensifies amid a likely toppling of the fledgling government, markets are worried about the fiscal fall-out of what may at best be emergency legislation, a so-called Special Law that would keep the country running, but with funding approved month by month.  To som

Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:31 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 3rd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

EUR to remain under pressure on French uncertainty
GBP and CHF both look likely to outperform EUR
JPY and USD the favoured safe havens

U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Bounce led by positive new orders
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 3:27 PM UTC

November’s ISM manufacturing index at 48.4 from 46.5 is the highest since June and follows an upgraded final S and P manufacturing index of 49.7, also the highest since June, from a preliminary 48.8 and 48.5 in October.

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Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin

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Eurozone: What Services Inflation?
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

While real economy considerations seem to have taken over as the policy focus for the ECB majority, there are still some mutterings about apparent resilient services inflation. The latter is certainly the case when such inflation is measured on the conventional but possibly untimely y/y basis.  How

Psychology for major markets December 2nd
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

EUR/USD testing the lows on French political uncertainty

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Top Trump Tariff Threats
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

Internal dynamics within BRICS argues against a BRICS currency due to divergent economies and structures, though BRICS could one day look to have a payment system.  Nevertheless, the threat of tariffs on BRICS if they form a new currency will also likely help the USD against EM currencies in H1 202

FX Weekly Strategy: December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 9:59 AM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Nov 26th
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:47 AM UTC

Net short CAD position still then main standout

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3980 support, room for lower later
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 8:26 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.4000 level as prices consolidate test of the 1.3980 support

EUR, JPY, GBP flows: JPY and GBP firm, EUR soft
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

JPY strength continues, GBP gaining ground against the EUR

Chart USD/CHF Update: Turned up in consolidation from the .8800 level
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Turned up from the .8800 level as prices consolidate losses from the .8958 high

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Taiwan Country Risk
Freemium Article

December 2, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

We provide country risk review for Taiwan.  

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Turned higher in consolidation
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 6:15 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 105.62 low of Friday

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

USD/JPY flows: USD rebound
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 4:11 AM UTC

USD is starting the week higher

AUD/USD flows: Individual Performance for Equities
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 2:03 AM UTC

Australia retail sales for October 0.6%

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for higher later
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Settling back from the 1.2750 high as prices consolidate strong gains from the 1.2487 low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.0600/10 resistance, higher later
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 1:19 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation from test of the 1.0600/10 resistance

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating at the 150.00 level, room for lower later
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 12:33 AM UTC

Break of the 150.00 level saw losses to reach 149.50 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at the .6500 level
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 12:11 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation at the .6500 level

December 01, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

December 1, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

December 1, 2024 6:00 PM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

November 29, 2024

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Banxico Minutes: Evaluating Further Cuts
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 7:31 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes reveal a 25 bps rate cut to 10.25%, with most board members supporting continued easing. They view recent non-core inflation spikes as transitory, expecting headline CPI to decline as shocks dissipate. Core CPI has dropped to 3.8%, reinforcing the case for further cuts, wh

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for lower
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 5:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test below 1.4000 has bounced from 1.3980

FX Weekly Strategy: December 2nd-6th
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

JPY biased higher medium term with Tokyo CPI supportive
Still some downside risks for EUR on Eurozone CPI data…
…with widening Germany/France spread also a concern
CAD may extend recovery on GDP

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Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

Chart AUD/USD Update: Resistance at 0.6550
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 2:50 PM UTC

Still little change

Preview: Due December 2 - U.S. November ISM Manufacturing - Slightly less weak
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 2:48 PM UTC

We expect a slightly firmer November ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, up from 46.5 in October but still beow the 47.2 readings seen in both August and September. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 2:26 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp drop, breaking below 150.00/20 to reach 149.53

CAD flows: USD opening softer
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 2:05 PM UTC

USD/CAD firmer after soft Canadian GDP

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break below 106.00

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy trade - any losses to remain limited
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 11:31 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.4800

Psychology for major markets November 29th
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 11:05 AM UTC

EUR/USD range bound near term. JPY strong after higher than expected Tokyo CPI