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June 22, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 22 June
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained generally bid, though GBP held up well after UK PM Starmer’s resignation. 

Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 6:59 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January. 

Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 5:37 PM UTC

We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Range extension
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 4:25 PM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 17.5000 has been followed by a pullback to support at congestion around 17.1500

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jun 23rd
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 4:00 PM UTC

U.S.-Iran, On and off
U.S. June S&P PMIs not quite as strong
USD/JPY in Intervention Zone

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending January gains
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 3:59 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh year high just shy of congestion resistance at 1.4200

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U.S. Outlook: Consumers Looking Vulnerable
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

•    The US economy is showing resilience with strength in investment offsetting a gradual slowing in consumption, though consumer spending, which is running well ahead of real disposable income, looks set to slow further. This is likely to see the economy slow in the second half of 2026 even

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending pressure on support - studies falling
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion support at 0.7000

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

Choppy trade above support at 161.00 has given way to fresh USD- and JPY-driven gains

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EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca

Canada May CPI - Upside suprise corrects April's downside surprise
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

May Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.2% yr/yr from 2.8% is stronger than expected, offsetting a clear downside surprise in April, though the Bank of Canada’s core rates are mostly stable and close to the BoC’s 2.0% target, so we do not believe these numbers will cause significant alarm at the BoC,

USD/CAD flows: Bit o/b but CAD still on back foot
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

CPI data broadly on market
CAD remains on the backfoot, USD/CAD seen higher, though overbought

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 12:09 PM UTC

We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.

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Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC

·       Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Range extension - background studies rising
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 10:51 AM UTC

Little change, as tests above resistance at the 1.6250~ monthly high of 14 April give way to a pullback into range extension within 1.6200 - 1.6250

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Germany/France/Italy and Spain: Growth and Inflation Outlooks
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

·       We have retained our 2026 GDP picture of 0.3% (Our Forecasts below) and actually pared back that for next year, with more and more signs that China is continuing to ship cheap products to Germany (lower energy prices post Iran war still help 2027).  For France, we have made a 0.3% do

Chartbook: Chart EUR/JPY: Still supported, but gains seen limited
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 9:20 AM UTC

Sharp rejection from 187.95 fresh multi-year high at the start of Q2 saw losses to 182.00 low before staging recovery to 186.00/186.30 

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Jun 22-26
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

No significant revision for U.S. Q1 GDP 
U.S. May Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
And A Slate of U.S. Data
Canada May CPI A further lift from energy 

Chart USD/CHF Update: Pushing higher once again
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 8:13 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh gains

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Focus back on strong resistance at the 101.15 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 8:03 AM UTC

Cautious trade above support at the 100.64 monthly high of 31 March is giving way to a fresh push higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to anticipated selling interest

Psychology for major markets June 22
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 7:35 AM UTC

Strait off, and then on

Chart GBP/USD Update: Choppy trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

June 22, 2026 7:31 AM UTC

The opening gap below 1.3200 has given way to a bounce

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Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: W/e worries stemmed on progress, dollar remains firm
Paying Article

June 22, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Reported progress in high level talks helps stem w/e escalation worries
Dollar retains its firmer lean since break higher

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