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April 21, 2026

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Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 5:31 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of strong support at the 1.3630 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

April 21, 2026 4:29 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support at the 1.3630 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to consolidation

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 22nd
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

UK Inflation Being Fuelled
Geopolitical Driven USD Bids Dominate
USD/JPY Consolidating

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 2:38 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same  time and to which it will contribute.  We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in

U.S. March Pending Home Sales - Stronger than expected but no clear trend
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen an unexpected 1.5% increase in March, a second straight gain, though the declines of December and January have still not been fully reversed, and the yr/yr picture remains marginally negative.

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U.S. March Retail Sales - Underlying resilience, lower taxes may be helping
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

March retail sales with a 1.7% rise, 1.9% ex autos are stronger than expected. Most of the rise is on the surging price of gasoline, though sales ex auto and gasoline with a 0.6% increase are on the firm side of expectations, with February revised up to 0.6% from 0.4% and January to 0.4% from 0.2%.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

Cautious trade around resistance at 1.6100 is giving way to a drift lower

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EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led.  Indeed, thi

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 21st
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 9:21 AM UTC

U.S. March Retail Sales Show Surge on gasoline prices
Geopolitics Favor DXY in a Short Term
NZ Q1 CPI May Further Tilt the RBNZ

Psychology for major markets Apr 21
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

Iran state media says that no delegation has yet departed for Pakistan

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

Minor losses have once again bounced from 0.7775

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 8:02 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.7145 has given way to a minor bounce to 0.7180~

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade just beneath congestion resistance at 159.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 7:50 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 98.00

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower in range
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

The bounce from the 1.1730~ low of 20 April has met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 1.1800

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 21, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

The bounce from the 1.3475 low of 20 April has met selling interest beneath congestion resistance at 1.3550

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UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
Freemium Article

April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC

There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms.  Admittedly, headlines may be formed around

USD/JPY flows: Japan FM Kept Up the Verbal Pressure
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 4:51 AM UTC

Japan FM says closely monitoring financial markets, will take measure if needed

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 21st
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 4:16 AM UTC

U.S. March Retail Sales Show Surge on gasoline prices
Geopolitics Favor DXY in a Short Term
NZ Q1 CPI May Further Tilt the RBNZ

NZD/USD flows: Q1 CPI Overshoot
Paying Article

April 21, 2026 2:27 AM UTC

Q1 CPI Overshoot before energy shock

April 20, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 20 Apr
Freemium Article

April 20, 2026 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD corrected from its Asian bounce as traders awaited fresh news in the Middle East. 

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact
Paying Article

April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,

Chart USD/CAD Update: Focus on strong support at the 1.3630 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

April 20, 2026 3:42 PM UTC

The bounce from 1.3650 has met renewed selling interest at 1.3700

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 21th
Paying Article

April 20, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. March Retail Sales Show Surge on gasoline prices
Geopolitics Favor DXY in a Short Term
NZ Q1 CPI May Further Tilt the RBNZ

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Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?
Paying Article

April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing.  Indeed, part of a broad