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August 17, 2026
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC
The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
August 17, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.
U.S. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strongest since December 2021
August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
August’s Empire State manufacturing index at 20.6 from 15.6 is the strongest since December 2021 and implies that a recent investment-fueled revival in manufacturing persists, though it should be noted that the Empire State survey is quite volatile.
Canada July CPI - Like the economy, picking up from recent core weakness
August 17, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
July’s Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% is slightly stronger than expected, with the Bank of Canada’s core rates on balance slightly firmer, if still close to target for CPI-Median and CPI-Trim. The data suggests underlying inflation is about where the BoC wants, and may reduce f
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 11, little change in the week
August 17, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
IMM data for w/e Aug 11 generally shows little change across counters, still very long $ overall
Yen shorts still smallest since Apr, and around 'normal' levels for recent years
Market remains extreme CAD short into trade deadline - binary event but squeeze risk evident
MXN longs inch back out amid the
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Aug 17-21
August 17, 2026 4:05 AM UTC
Canada trade deadline a wildcard, but skew has been favouring a short CAD squeeze
FOMC Minutes may give more insight to Fed debate
US yield retreat chips at $ longs, although also supports summer low vol risk (for now...)
Various/CHF still trend up...