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October 05, 2026
U.S. September ISM Services - Fairly stable but with prices picking up
October 5, 2026 2:13 PM UTC
Contrasting a significantly improved S and P services PMI of 58.8, September’s ISM services index of 54.9 is slightly lower than expected and down from 55.4 in August, though still maintaining a fairly stable profile at a level that implies a respectable pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
October 5, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
French Bonds: Global Spillover or Fiscal Crisis?
October 5, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
Overall, the current French government bond widening could partially reverse short-term on U.S. Treasury yields becoming less worried about Fed tightening and also hopes that the 2027 French government budget plan could actually pass. Some ECB officials could also note the existence of the Transmi
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Oct 5-8
October 5, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Oct 5-8
October 5, 2026 9:10 AM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at
October 02, 2026
Preview: Due October 16 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Rebound from a weak August
October 2, 2026 5:32 PM UTC
We expect a strong 1.0% increase in September industrial production after flat August with manufacturing up by 0.6% after a 0.3% August decline. This would restore a positive trend after a weak month.
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Oct 5-8
October 2, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at