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January 14, 2026
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still
January 14, 2026 8:12 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.
Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%
January 14, 2026 5:51 PM UTC
January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%
U.S. Retail Sales and PPI over October and November not far from expectations
January 14, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
November retail sales with a rise of 0.6% are marginally stronger than expected but the data is close to expectations net of modest negative back month revisions. PPI has been released for both October and November, also net in line with expectations, with October on the firm side in the core rate f
DM Government Debt: 2026 Supply & Voters’ Resistance To Fiscal Consolidation
January 14, 2026 11:55 AM UTC
· We see the most persistent issue being supply (budget deficit + QT) in 2026, which should lessen into 2027 with a slowdown in ECB/BOE QT and a partial U turn by the BOJ. However, governments are also struggling with electorates that are resistant to higher taxes or lower governmen