North American Summary and Highlights 15 September

September 15, 2026 7:25 PM UTC

Overview - The USD remained firmer supported by oil and UST yields as equities were pressured, though moves were modest ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. 

Preview: Due September 29 - Canada July GDP - Subdued start to Q3

September 15, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

We expect July GDP to be unchanged, a pause after three straight gains in Q2. This would be in line with the preliminary estimate for July made with June’s report. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Range trade - daily studies rising

September 15, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the tight 1.3900 - 1.3925 range

Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff

September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects.  Breakeven inflation expectatio

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure

September 15, 2026 1:43 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.7100 - 0.7150 range

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in USD- and JPY-driven trade

September 15, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

The pullback to congestion support at 154.00 has given way to a steady bounce

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July

September 15, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Some loss of momentum, prices firm

September 15, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

September’s Empire State manufacturing index at 7.6 is still positive but down from a very strong 20.6 in August that was the strongest since December 2021. The data follows modest slowing in August’s ISM and S and P manufacturing PMIs, though both also remained clearly positive.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 15

September 15, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

Spec data shows mkt turned long kiwi - often a contrary indicator
Risk sentiment turns weaker, squeezing dollar, as oil catches up with sentiment; AI complications
Soft UK labour market data, followed by CPI, provide the run in to the next BoE meeting

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced beneath year highs

September 15, 2026 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies and flattening overbought daily stochastics prompt cautious trade within the 0.8150 - 0.8200/07 range

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Room for higher

September 15, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a fresh push higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure

September 15, 2026 7:36 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at the 1.1520 Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for fresh losses

September 15, 2026 7:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on support at the 1.3475 Fibonacci retracement

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Labor mkt data remains soft; BoE to adjust long-end QT

September 15, 2026 6:39 AM UTC

UK Labour market data shows ongoing soft trend
Press suggest BoE to scrap 20-30yr gilt sales at upcoming QT decision
GBP still in the pack, but cable remains heavy

China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses

September 15, 2026 2:52 AM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure

September 15, 2026 1:59 AM UTC

Still limited below the 1.3475 support but pressure remains on the downside following rejection from the 1.3568 high of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure

September 15, 2026 1:50 AM UTC

Consolidation at 1.1575 support has given way to break to extend losses from the 1.1655 swing high of last week

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in consolidation towards 155.00/22 resistance

September 15, 2026 1:06 AM UTC

Turning higher in consolidation following bounce from the 153.00 support

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5762/50 support

September 15, 2026 12:50 AM UTC

Consolidation around the .5800 level has given way to fresh selling pressure to reach support at the .5762/50 area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressure remains on the downside

September 15, 2026 12:33 AM UTC

Consolidation at the .7150 support has given way to break to reach towards the .7100 level