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April 17, 2025
USD flows: Trump said looking for a new Fed Chairman
April 17, 2025 7:14 PM UTC
The USD is a touch weaker after the WSJ reported Trump has spoken with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about replacing current Fed Chairman Powell, though it appears Warsh is not interested. If Trump persists in his search, he will have trouble finding someone who will have the market’s trust.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI
April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal
FX Weekly Strategy: April 21st-25th
April 17, 2025 2:52 PM UTC
Markets to continue to react to implications of US tariffs
USD to remain under pressure as overweight positions are trimmed
Downside risks to PMI data suggest safe havens to be preferred…
…but some currencies can still recover from extreme levels triggered by the equity sell-off
Banxico Minutes: Comfortable about the Cuts Amid the Volatility
April 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC
Banxico’s latest minutes confirm a cautious but steady path toward policy normalization, with the policy rate expected to reach neutral levels (7.00–8.00%) in 2025. While the economy shows signs of deceleration and a negative output gap, inflation continues to ease, nearing historical averages.
ECB Review: Discussing Policy Restriction No Longer Appropriate
April 17, 2025 1:48 PM UTC
A seventh and widely expected 25 bp deposit rate cut was overshadowed by the ECB’s communication shift about the outlook hereafter, no longer talking about how restrictive policy may be. This shift is entirely appropriate not least given the manner in which financial conditions are now tightenin
U.S. Initial Claims low but Philly Fed plunges, mixed housing data
April 17, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
Initial jobless claims at 215k from 224k are at their lowest since February 8, and this release covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. However, a Philly Fed manufacturing index of -26.6 suggests tariffs are hitting the regional manufacturing sector in April. March housing data is mix
Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%
April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o
Safe Havens Other Than the USD
April 17, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
The USD and U.S. Treasuries are currently not acting like safe havens, as the crisis is U.S. centric with the tariff debacle. 10yr Treasuries can regain safe haven status if a U.S. recession occurs, but U.S. equities are still clearly overvalued versus equity and equity-bond metrics. We prefer Ind
April 16, 2025
Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive
April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.
Bank of Canada - Proceeding carefully, but risks still lean towards further easing
April 16, 2025 4:28 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75% as expected. The statement concluded that the BoC will proceed carefully, noting that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war, but it can and must maintain price stability in Canada. While this shows cauti
U.S. March Industrial Production - Strong Q1 ahead of tariffs
April 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC
March industrial production is weak overall with a 0.3% decline though the fall is more than fully explained by a steep 5.8% fall in utilities as weather improved. Manufacturing increased by 0.3%, sustaining a recent improvement in trend that will be difficult to sustain as tariffs kick in.
U.S. March Retail Sales - Autos lead bounce ahead of tariffs
April 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
March retail sales with a gain of 1.4% is in line with expectations, led by a pre-tariff surge in auto sales. Gains of 0.5% ex auto and 0.8% ex auto and gasoline are on the firm side of expectations, though the control group, which contributes to GDP, was less impressive with a moderate rise of 0.4%
China GDP: Good Q1 Start, but 2025 Could Be 4.2% or 3.3%
April 16, 2025 8:24 AM UTC
• The March data releases from China alongside the Q1 GDP figures show a good start for 2025. However, underlying domestic demand is soft and Q2 will see a big hit from the U.S. tariffs already introduced. Our baseline (here) remains for a truce in the coming weeks and a scale back of 1