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October 16, 2026
Confidence with a K
October 16, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
* Recessionary confidence, resilient spending. Political divisions are evident beneath the headline, but don't explain the macro divergence. High prices part of the story and backed up by micro data research
* Confidence with a K - exceptionally large gap in 'current conditions' sentiment for large e
DM Money Supply and Private Sector Debt/GDP: Not Enough Borrowing?
October 16, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
· The surge in U.S. household wealth from the post GFC boom in equity and house prices has meant household lending has been subdued but not hitting consumption. The AI infrastructure lending boom needs to be watched in the coming years, especially with the U.S. easing capital ratios.
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD flows - Fed's Warsh avoids any nudges, leaves yields/dollar off highs
October 16, 2026 6:42 AM UTC
Warsh avoids forward guidance
Lack of verbal intervention leaves mkt comfortable with low Oct pricing, and the dollar still modestly correcting
Indonesia moves individually on MSCI jolt
October 15, 2026
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 15, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. September Personal Income and Spending - Four-month high for core PCE prices
October 15, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.6% rise in spending, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, exceeding perso
Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
October 15, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
Preview: Due October 16 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Rebound from a weak August
October 15, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
We expect a strong 1.0% increase in September industrial production after flat August with manufacturing up by 0.6% after a 0.3% August decline. This would restore a positive trend after a weak month.
U.S. September Retail Sales and PPI, October Philly Fed and Empire State, Initial Claims - Generally strong
October 15, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
The latest set of US data is on the firm side of expectations, September PPI at 1.3% overall and 0.7% ex food and energy, September retail sales at 0.8%, 0.9% ex autos. Underlying gains of 0.5% for PPI ex food energy and trade and 0.2% for retail sales ex autos and gasoline are less firm but far fro