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May 05, 2026
Preview: Due May 11 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - An upward correction but trend may be slowing
May 5, 2026 5:43 PM UTC
We expect existing home sales to maintain a recent choppy pattern in April, with a 2.0% increase to 4.06m, in a partial correction from a 3.6% decline in March. Underlying trend is probably starting to slip as inflation fears reduce Fed easing prospects, even if our forecast implies the first positi
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
U.S. April ISM Services, March Job Openings, New Home Sales - Economy growing moderately
May 5, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
The latest round of data provides no major net surprises, with a modest decline in job openings, two straight moderate increases in new home sales and a modest slowing in the ISM services index. The data is consistent with an economy still showing moderate growth.
March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices
May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February.
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
May 5, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?
May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC
Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. This is likely to have been ab
U.S. Labour: In Praise of Older Workers
May 5, 2026 8:32 AM UTC
· While financial pressures are prompting U.S. workers to delay retirement and work longer, this is not being realized due to deteriorating health/labour market skills mismatches and other issues. More work from older workers is unlikely to be the solution to shrinking net immigration.
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 4th-8th
May 5, 2026 5:32 AM UTC
RBA Signals Last Hike for Now
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Not as strong as March but some positive signals
And Other U.S. Data
Sweden Riksbank On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time
Canada April Employment A modest gain with stable unemployment