FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 24-28

August 21, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Small upward revision for U.S. Q2 GDP 
U.S. July PCE prices to match CPI
U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance Wider in nominal and real terms
Canada Q2 GDP Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports

U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong

August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending gains

August 21, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to further gains

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - background studies under pressure

August 21, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

The break above 159.00 has not been sustained

Canada June retail sales - Strong end to Q2, but July seen weaker

August 21, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

June Canadian retail sales with a 0.6% increase are slightly stronger than the 0.4% preliminary estimate made with May’s data and in real terms increased by an impressive 1.5%. This is supportive for Q2 GDP though the Q2 retail sales gain of 0.4% (not annualized) is moderate in real terms, if up 2

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 21

August 21, 2026 12:13 PM UTC

National CPI Still Cushioned
USD/JPY Consolidating at 158.00
DXY coming under pressure

Weekly Chart USD Index DXY: Extending June losses

August 21, 2026 11:20 AM UTC

Consolidation within the 99.50 - 100.00 range has given way to anticipated selling interest

This week's five highlights

August 21, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

UK Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
FOMC Minutes Show Inter-meeting data seen as important
U.S. July Industrial Production Healthy excluding a dip in autos
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits Mixed

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating - studies remain under pressure

August 21, 2026 8:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade around congestion resistance at 0.8000

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced above strong support - studies under pressure

August 21, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised to extend late-June gains

August 21, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at congestion around 1.1700 and the 1.1725 Fibonacci retracement

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for further gains

August 21, 2026 7:21 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath the 1.3657 monthly high of 1 May

USD/JPY flows: Little Changed

August 21, 2026 4:43 AM UTC

All items of CPI Below Target Range

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 21

August 21, 2026 4:29 AM UTC

National CPI Still Cushioned
USD/JPY Consolidating at 158.00
DXY coming under pressure

AUD/USD flows: Commodity Currencies Beat

August 21, 2026 2:52 AM UTC

Commodity Currencies Beat

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring 1.3650/58 resistance

August 21, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 1.3600 level has given way to further gains to retest 1.3650/58 congestion and May high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.1700, room for higher later

August 21, 2026 1:44 AM UTC

Extending bullish break of resistance at the 1.1575/1.1600 area to reach the 1.1700 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending bounce from 158.00 support

August 21, 2026 1:00 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 158.00 level has seen bounce to retest the 159.00 level as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Focus turn to .5995, May high

August 21, 2026 12:47 AM UTC

Extending break of the .5900 level to pressure resistance at .5950 and channel resistance from January high