U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Quiet trade, but studies remain under pressure

August 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

Consolidation around 157.00 has given way to further gains

U.S. Fed's Paulson - If policy is in the right place inflation will ease

August 4, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson backed keeping policy on hold but needs inflation to fall if she is to maintain that stance. 

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ISM Services - Keeping to a tight range

August 4, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

We expect a July ISM services index of 54.5, returning to May’s level after a dip to 54.0 in June. The index has been in a tight range since December, apart from a brief bounce to 56.1 in February.

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing

August 4, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 4

August 4, 2026 9:28 AM UTC

US admin may be more fickle, but joint intervention has tended to work...
Waiting for payrolls. Is CHF now the most responsive to US data? 
Oil and NOK continue to be marked to US gyrations on Iran

Psychology for major markets Aug 4

August 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran's Rhetoric Remains Confusing

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Flows: Consolidation on a quiet day, same big picture issues

August 4, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

After a few wilder sessions, market in quiter consolidation amid stretched moves, quiet calendar
Same big picture issues remain in the background, payrolls next extra input

Chart USD/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited

August 4, 2026 8:30 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 0.8100 has extended to 0.8115

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited

August 4, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to the anticipated test of congestion resistance at 100.00

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating

August 4, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

The pullback from the 1.1560 high of 3 August has reached congestion support at 1.1500

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating pullback from 1.3500

August 4, 2026 7:26 AM UTC

The minor pullback following the test of congestion resistance at 1.3500 has reached 1.3420

USD/JPY flows: Retesting Monday's High

August 4, 2026 5:24 AM UTC

Retesting Monday's High

Weekly Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating losses, but downside still vulnerable

August 4, 2026 5:00 AM UTC

Rejection from the 164.00 high to break support at the 162.84 high of 1 July gave way to sharp losses through the 2024 year high at 161.95 and the 160.00 figure.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 4

August 4, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

US admin may be more fickle, but joint intervention has tended to work...
Waiting for payrolls. Is CHF now the most responsive to US data? 
Oil and NOK continue to be marked to US gyrations on Iran

AUD/USD flows: Strong household spending

August 4, 2026 3:54 AM UTC

Australia June household spending up 0.8%

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3500

August 4, 2026 1:58 AM UTC

Backed off from test of the 1.3500 level as prices consolidate strong gains from the 1.3275 low of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating, room for higher later

August 4, 2026 1:46 AM UTC

Settled back from the 1.1559 high as prices consolidate strong gains from the 1.1355 support

Chart USD/JPY Update: Turned up in consolidation towards 158.00 resistance

August 4, 2026 1:03 AM UTC

Turned up from the 155.23 low as prices unwind oversold intraday studies to consolidate above the 157.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5900

August 4, 2026 12:47 AM UTC

Limited on break above .5900 level as prices settled back to consolidate strong gains from the .5762 low