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March 04, 2026
U.S. February ADP Employment - A stronger month after sharply underperforming payrolls in January
March 4, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
February’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 63k is stronger than the market expected though in part offset to a downward revision to January to 11k from 22k. The bounce in ADP data looks like a correction from a weak January which sharply underperformed the non-farm payroll.
UK GDP Preview (Mar 13): Were Things Getting Better?
March 4, 2026 11:11 AM UTC
Belatedly, some good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year. Even more encouragingly, it may very well enjoy a further rise in the looming January data, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years. But as is famil
Markets and the Iran War
March 4, 2026 9:50 AM UTC
• The Trump administration’s objective appears to be pivoting from regime change to hurting Iran ballistic missile capabilities, which argues for a 2-4 week war rather than a prolonged war. However, the most intense missile battles will likely occur in the next one week and markets are
March 03, 2026
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 3, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.