View:
December 19, 2025
December 18, 2025
Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
December 18, 2025 8:46 PM UTC
We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
December 18, 2025 6:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug
Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
December 18, 2025 4:19 PM UTC
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
ECB Review: On Hold Message to Convert to Easing on Disinflation
December 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
· The ECB increased its 2026 GDP and inflation forecast and appears happy with current policy rate levels. However, still tight financial conditions, plus easing wage growth, point to disinflation and growth disappointment. We see this switch the ECB from an on hold message to easin
Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue
December 18, 2025 2:37 PM UTC
We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
DM FX Outlook: Scope for USD decline against JPY, AUD and NOK
December 18, 2025 2:31 PM UTC
· Bottom Line: We expect some modest USD losses across the board over the next couple of years, but there is much more scope for losses against the JPY, AUD and NOK than the other G10 currencies, as yield spreads have moved dramatically in favour of these currencies, and the currencies
U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?
December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov
BoE Review (Dec 18): Splits More Entrenched?
December 18, 2025 12:41 PM UTC
That the BoE delivered a sixth 25 bp rate cut (to an almost three-year low of 3.75%) was hardly in doubt. But we were surprised that amid the recent run of weak data, that there were (again) four dissents with Governor Bailey switching sides. Notably, in a clear combative overtone, at least some
EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help
December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
• EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter. We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru