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March 26, 2026
Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
March 26, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75% Due to Inflationary Risks
March 26, 2026 3:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on March 26 due to inflationary risks. We anticipate that a weakening rand, driven by higher oil prices and surging food costs to the war in Iran, will likely push inflation over 4% in Q2/Q3, and SA
Preview: Due April 6 (rescheduled from April 3) - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 26, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?
March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data. We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections. But both it
U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable
March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.
Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish
March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC
While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable. It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: The Iran War Shock
March 26, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
· The Iran war macro impact on Asia depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).
· India GDP growth has been revised down slightly