North American Summary and Highlights 17 June

June 17, 2026 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - US2yr up 15bp back to the recent yield highs as split FOMC projects lean towards a rate hike, Warsh strikes mixed tone if uncompromising on inflation mandate. Dollar break highs, up 1%+ across most pairs

USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference

June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC

Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness 
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely

USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar

June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu

Chartbook: Chart USD Index DXY: Choppy in range - room to extend January gains

June 17, 2026 4:22 PM UTC

Anticipated tests higher posted a fresh year high at 100.64

Chart USD/CAD Update: Fresh year highs in CAD-driven trade

June 17, 2026 3:53 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh gains in CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - No significant revision

June 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

We expect a final estimate of Q1 GDP at 1.6%, unrevised from the preliminary, though in USD terms we do expect a marginal upward revision.

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further

June 17, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, Jun 18th

June 17, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

FOMC projections and press conference to set the broad tone
Otherwise focus turns to the UK, with data, BoE and by-election. Sterling mood has improved
SNB seen unchanged and CHF comments to be ignored unless escalated

U.S. May Pending Home Sales - Fourth straight gain from January's record low

June 17, 2026 2:19 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a 3.8% increase in May, well above expectations and a fourth straight rise, though still not fully reversing the declines of December and January that took the series to a record low.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range trade

June 17, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 0.7050 - 0.7100 range

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range extension

June 17, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Still little change, as flat daily stochastics help to keep sentiment cautious and extend consolidation above congestion support at 160.00

USD flows: Retail sales upside into Fed, mkt holds tight

June 17, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Another upside from US data, retail sales beats
While with the grain of US resilience and outperformance, mkt holds tight into FOMC

Chartbook: US Chart 10 Year Yield: Retracement in the coming weeks - background studies improving

June 17, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

The anticipated break higher in yields has posted a fresh 2026 year high at 4.687%

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Price action remains positive

June 17, 2026 11:04 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on strong resistance at the 1.6250~ monthly high of 14 April