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March 25, 2026
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
US Q4 Current Account - Deficit fall assisted by bounce in investment surplus
March 25, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
The Q4 current account deficit of $190.7bn is significantly lower than expected, down from $239.1bn in Q3, and the lowest since Q1 2021. The correction from Q1’s record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn continues.
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026
March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th
UK CPI Review: Goodbye to the Good Old Days?
March 25, 2026 7:33 AM UTC
After January’s clear fall, even in the core rate, where the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) it stayed there in February’s numbers – matching both consensus and BoE projections. Services fell 0.1 ppt to 4.3% which was a four-year low (Figure 1) but the co
EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate
March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,