North American Summary and Highlights 25 August

August 25, 2026 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly softer as oil prices moved lower, as did UST yields.  

FOMC Discount Rate minutes show four districts backed a July hike

August 25, 2026 6:44 PM UTC

Minutes from the Fed’s discount rate meetings shortly before the July FOMC meeting show a not very hawkish 4 votes (out of 12) to increase the Discount Rate, from the Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City and Minneapolis Feds.

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. August ISM Services - Slightly firmer within a tight range

August 25, 2026 6:21 PM UTC

We expect an August ISM services index of 54.5, up from 54.1 in July but keeping the index in a tight range, which held between 53.6 and 54.5 between March and July. 

Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so

August 25, 2026 4:04 PM UTC

We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?

Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?

August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC

* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited

August 25, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

The break above 1.3800 has extended to reach 1.3865~

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 26

August 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. Preliminary Q2 GDP Still Subdued
PCE prices to match CPI
July Durable Goods Orders Still firm
Slate of U.S. Data could see Limited tests higher for DXY

U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail

August 25, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward rev

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher

August 25, 2026 1:14 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation around congestion support at 0.7150

Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls

August 25, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.