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September 21, 2026
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 22
September 21, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
USD/JPY nudging up in the 157-158 band, while keeping ear out for the MoF during Japan holiday
Key focal point remains word on diplomatic efforts and US plan at UN meeting. Oil sitting at key $100~ Brent range threshold support prior
Outcome will be pivotal in setting this week's tone for risk, dollar
Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship
September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 8:56 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0
September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
· Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West. The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. Regional ag
Chartbook: Chart USD/JPY: Corrective bounce expected to give way to renewed selling pressure
September 21, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Saw sharp losses from the 164.00 July high to correct between 38.2-50% of the rally from 140.00, April 2025 year low.
Rebound from the 153.00 low see prices retracing the two-legged losses to reach towards resistance at 158.00/158.45, congestion and 50% Fibonacci level, which is expected to cap. Br
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - jump in yen longs squeezed last week
September 21, 2026 7:13 AM UTC
Jump in yen longs, pulled dollar net closer to balance overall into big central bank meetings, setting up shif out
Mkt gets caught JPY long into the local USD/JPY lows and squeezed
NZD still long, has already illustrated contrary indicator selloff qualities
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: oil hoping on UN progress despite noise; France budget worries pressure
September 21, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, keeping overnight activity thin
Oil easing, hoping of diplomatic efforts at UN diplomacy
Background focus on French bond pressure on deficit/debt concerns
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 21-25
September 21, 2026 6:17 AM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal