View:
August 10, 2026
Is CAD poised for a short-squeeze?
August 10, 2026 5:03 PM UTC
There's a decent argument that, event-risk given, CAD may be poised for a short-squeeze
Positioning is extreme and against the grain of recent $ moves
Data has been surprising to the upside supporting a shift in momentum
Lead indicator trends support a recent move back toward recovery and outperforma
FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
August 10, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b
FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents
August 10, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate
August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now
August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC
IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Aug 10-14
August 10, 2026 8:59 AM UTC
Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base
Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow
August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
· Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/NOK Flows: core NOK CPI a little under, still waiting on Iran
August 10, 2026 6:58 AM UTC
Yen in Fri's bar, still basing and in n/t consolidation/correction mode
Iran says Oman deal close, rhetoric on US demands remains high
NOK inflation higher on headline but a little under on core, Norge hike odds relatively limited for Aug
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Aug 10-14
August 10, 2026 4:07 AM UTC
Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base