North American Summary and Highlights 10 August

August 10, 2026 7:49 PM UTC

Overview - Oil and UST yields picked as did USD/JPY though USD moves were modest elsewhere. 

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Suggests multiple rate hikes will be needed

August 10, 2026 7:39 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who dissented for tightening in July, is sounding increasingly hawkish. 

Is CAD poised for a short-squeeze?

August 10, 2026 5:03 PM UTC

There's a decent argument that, event-risk given, CAD may be poised for a short-squeeze
Positioning is extreme and against the grain of recent $ moves
 Data has been surprising to the upside supporting a shift in momentum
Lead indicator trends support a recent move back toward recovery and outperforma

Weekly Chart USD/MXN Update: Balanced just above year lows - studies under pressure

August 10, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

Cautious trade within the broad 16.3000 - 16.5000 range is giving way to fresh losses

Chart USD/CAD Update: Poised for further losses

August 10, 2026 3:47 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following recent sharp USD- and CAD-driven losses

FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents

August 10, 2026 2:50 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 11

August 10, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

An argument for looking for a short CAD squeeze risk ahead
RBA the main interest Tues, no chance of a hike priced in. 
Wed's US CPI, as well as Iran, dominate the weekly outlook still

Monthly US Chart 10 Year Yield: Consolidating gains - studies rising

August 10, 2026 1:47 PM UTC

Choppy trade around 4.500% has given way to a break higher, with yields reaching 4.745% before settling into fresh consolidation.

Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage

August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.

Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate

August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring range highs - studies rising

August 10, 2026 12:20 PM UTC

Little change, as choppy trade gives way to a retest of congestion resistance at 1.3500.

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now

August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC

IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque

Chart USD/CHF Update: Choppy trade - studies leaning lower

August 10, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

Choppy trade has given way to a pullback

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Aug 10-14

August 10, 2026 8:59 AM UTC

Outside of Iran, focus turns to key US CPI. Trend has been for very few core upside surprises
UK sees GDP, heatwave risks downside surprise, GBP kneejerk
Japan eyes BoJ comments from last meeting, to read the appetite for a Sep hike
Gold and silver still attempting to breakout higher from base