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September 30, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices slower in August
September 30, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE price index at 1.92% annualized in August is similar to July’s and the third straight month below 2.0%. Yr/yr growth of 2.19% is down from 2.28% in both June and July and the slowest since August 2021.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - PCE prices revised down as suspected; Germany confirmed higher
September 30, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Mixed data, PCE price downward revisions, Germany upside, tending to stem the dollar
Cable seeing the greatest benefit, with short positioning and GDP data helping firm Nov hike expectations
U.S. September ADP Employment - Consistent with lower initial claims
September 30, 2026 12:30 PM UTC
September’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 90k is on the firm side of expectations and a 3-month high for the ADP report. It leaves us comfortable with our 100k forecasts for both private sector and overall non-farm payrolls.
EUR/USD flows - National CPI figures coming in high; timing still a near-term focus
September 30, 2026 9:15 AM UTC
EZ national CPI prints coming in high; keeps mkt juggling odds, mindful of Lagarde's 'measured' guidance
Fed side of the equation also in balance after Williams less urgent - key data ahead
USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, GBP/USD flows - Period end, CPI data a main focal point
September 30, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
USD/JPY dips in Asia on period end JPY demand
AUD extends pullback through RBA, as CPI data comes in below mkt
UK GDP revised up, GBP still trying to level
Focus on EZ national CPI prints, early headlines on the upside
September 29, 2026
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.