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March 26, 2026

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Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating March gains - studies rising
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March 26, 2026 11:56 AM UTC

Prices continue to consolidate beneath strong resistance at 1.6000

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 26th
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March 26, 2026 10:12 AM UTC

USD Choppy trade to Give Way if Geopolitical Breakthrough
USD/JPY Another Area to Watch Out
How Hawkish Will the Norges Bank Sound?

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Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish
Freemium Article

March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC

While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable.  It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po

Chart USD/CHF Update: Higher in range
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March 26, 2026 9:17 AM UTC

Cautious/choppy trade beneath 0.7900 has given way to a push higher

Psychology for major markets Mar 26
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March 26, 2026 9:01 AM UTC

Cracks Showing

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Edging higher
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March 26, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Consolidation above congestion support at 99.00 has given way to a push higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 8:48 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.1600 has given way to a drift lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade
Freemium Article

March 26, 2026 8:28 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.3400 has given way to a fresh selling interest

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March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challanges
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: The Iran War Shock
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact on Asia depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  
·       India GDP growth has been revised down slightly

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 26th
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 4:29 AM UTC

USD Choppy trade to Give Way if Geopolitical Breakthrough
USD/JPY Another Area to Watch Out
How Hawkish Will the Norges Bank Sound?

AUD/USD flows: Geopolitical tension persist
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 4:25 AM UTC

Trump says Iran is negotiating and want a deal

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turned lower in consolidation
Freemium Article

March 26, 2026 1:42 AM UTC

Settled back below the 1.3400 level as resistance at the 1.3435/80, 200-day MA and 23 March high keep gains in check

Chart EUR/USD Update: Lower in consolidation
Paying Article

March 26, 2026 1:27 AM UTC

Settled back from 1.1640 Monday's high as prices consolidate choppy gains from the 1.1410, 13 March current year low

Chart USD/JPY Update: Scope to retest 159.75/90 highs
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March 26, 2026 1:01 AM UTC

Bounce from the 157.50 low of last week to regain the 159.00 level has seen gains to retest the 159.45, January high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Leaning lower
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March 26, 2026 12:40 AM UTC

Leaning lower as consolidation around .5850 turn down to pressure the .5800 level

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
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March 26, 2026 12:28 AM UTC

Under pressure, as break below the .7000 level opens up the pin bar lows at .6945 and .6910 to retest

March 25, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 25 Mar
Freemium Article

March 25, 2026 7:39 PM UTC

Overview - The USD picked up with the US and Iran clearly remaining far apart regarding any potential peace deal. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: February gains pressuring resistance at 1.3800/20
Freemium Article

March 25, 2026 4:32 PM UTC

Consolidation above 1.3750 has given way to a fresh break higher

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 26th
Paying Article

March 25, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

USD Choppy trade to Give Way if Geopolitical Breakthrough
USD/JPY Another Area to Watch Out
How Hawkish Will the Norges Bank Sound?

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
Paying Article

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

March 25, 2026 2:39 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at the 0.6945 weekly low of 3 March

Chart USD/JPY Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
Paying Article

March 25, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test above congestion resistance at 159.00 as intraday studies rise

US Q4 Current Account - Deficit fall assisted by bounce in investment surplus
Paying Article

March 25, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

The Q4 current account deficit of $190.7bn is significantly lower than expected, down from $239.1bn in Q3, and the lowest since Q1 2021. The correction from Q1’s record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn continues.