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May 18, 2026
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 19th
May 18, 2026 3:29 PM UTC
Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur
USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away
Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe
USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell
May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC
Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers
AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC
IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up