FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 19th

May 18, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur

North American Summary and Highlights 18 May

May 18, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly softer with mixed headlines on Trump’s intentions regarding Iran causing some volatility. 

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating sharp bounce from fresh year lows

May 18, 2026 4:28 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low around 4.8850

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily studies continue to rise

May 18, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Little change, as deteriorating intraday studies and flat overbought daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 19th

May 18, 2026 3:29 PM UTC

Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur

Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - A marginal upward revision

May 18, 2026 3:14 PM UTC

We expect a preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.1%, a marginal upward revision from the advance estimate of 2.0%.

U.S. May NAHB Homebuilders Index - Still little direction in trend

May 18, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 has seen a stronger than expected correction from April’s dip to 34, but remains slightly below March’s index of 38 if level with those of January and February.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher

May 18, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended to 0.7120~, where rising intraday studies are prompting a bounce towards resistance at 0.7200

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 159.00 - daily studies rising

May 18, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 159.00 is giving way to a minor pullback

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates

May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for lower

May 18, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.6000 has reached 1.59770~

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, May 18th-22nd

May 18, 2026 9:08 AM UTC

Breather on initial move but dollar squeeze could continue near-term
Popular trades forced into some profit-taking
Stretched risk trades face potential increased volatility

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell

May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating gains

May 18, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 0.7875

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating gains

May 18, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have meeting selling interest around 99.40