FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Jun 15-19

June 15, 2026 9:10 AM UTC

US-Iran deal moves forward, albeit with detail still to pin down and ongoing external tensions
Dollar regains some break levels, albeit waiting to hear from the Fed
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks a

Psychology for major markets June 15

June 15, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Deal Done

NOK/SEK flows: Not plain sailing but correction still in play

June 15, 2026 8:52 AM UTC

NOK/SEK still biased to profit-taking retracement on big leg up, so long as confidence firms in the deal
Unlikely to be entirely plain sailing and volatility free given misaligned parties involved

Chart USD/CHF Update: Leaning lower

June 15, 2026 8:41 AM UTC

Consolidation around 0.7950 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower

June 15, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated test of congestion support at 99.50

Chartbook: UK Chart FTSE 100 Update: Cautious trade - gains to remain limited

June 15, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

The anticipated break below support at 10,000 posted a fresh year low at 9670, (just above the 9650 Fibonacci retracement), before bouncing back into consolidation, supported around 10,150.

Chartbook: DAX Chart: Choppy beneath all-time highs - studies under pressure

June 15, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support at 22000, coincident with congestion and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, has given way to a sharp bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher

June 15, 2026 7:42 AM UTC

Cautious trade above congestion support at 1.1550 has given way to a push higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Immediate gains to remain limited

June 15, 2026 7:34 AM UTC

Choppy trade around congestion support at 1.3400 has given way to a push higher to resistance at 1.3450

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jun 9

June 15, 2026 7:33 AM UTC

Euro positioning stayed neutral, dollar longs otherwise extended
JPY shorts nudge further into post 2024 highs
AUD longs further trimmed; CAD extend amid macro, trade deal concerns

EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, USD flows: $80 and some breaks regained; Swiss avoid risky vote

June 15, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

Oil back to $80 as deal to be signed, albeit with some can kick on details
EUR/USD regains 1.16, Nasdaq back above it's recent break lower
Swiss also avoid event risk, no on population cap, bolsters CHF

Chartbook: Chart Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Consolidation at 5000, room to extend gains

June 15, 2026 6:31 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 4450/4400 support in late-March gave way to strong rally at the start of Q2 to reach fresh year high at the 5000 level

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Locked and Loaded

June 15, 2026 4:56 AM UTC

Market expects the BoJ to hike by 25bps in June

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Jun 15-19

June 15, 2026 4:50 AM UTC

Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise 
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending bounce from 1.3300 support

June 15, 2026 2:02 AM UTC

Extending bounce from support at the 1.3300 low of last week to reach resistance at the 1.3450 congestion

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring 1.1575/1.1600 resistance, break in focus

June 15, 2026 1:51 AM UTC

Pressuring resistance at the 1.1575/1.1600 congestion area following bounce from the 1.1500 low last week

AUD/USD flows: Deal

June 15, 2026 1:22 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran Deal to be Signed On Friday

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range-bound in consolidation

June 15, 2026 12:59 AM UTC

Little change, as prices stays range-bound in consolidation around the 160.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Room to extend gains

June 15, 2026 12:51 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the .5770 low as prices unwind oversold daily studies to reach the .5850 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending gains

June 15, 2026 12:35 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the .6980 low of last week as prices unwind oversold daily studies