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August 19, 2026
Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze
August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ
EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged
August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
August 18, 2026
Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC
We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
August 18, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.