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February 21, 2025

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further consolidation - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 4:30 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

U.S. February Michigan CSI revised lower as inflation expectations rise, January Existing Home Sales fall
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

A 4.9% rise in January existing home sales is consistent with recent gains in housing activity fading as Fed easing expectations fade, but weather may have also played a part. Revised February Michigan CSI data shows 5-10 year inflation expectations picking up significantly, now at 3.5% from a preli

U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing extends upturn but Services turn negative
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:57 PM UTC

February’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing modestly extending a recent upturn in rising to 51.6 from 51.2, but more significantly services seeing a dip below neutral, to 49.7 from 52.9.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring 0.6385/00
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.6385 Fibonacci retracement and the 0.6400 break level is giving way to consolidation

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of the 149.20 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 150.00 has reached the 149.20 Fibonacci retracement

Canada December Retail Sales - Strong end to 2024
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

Canada’s December retail sales with a 2.5% rise are significantly stronger than expected, and well above a 1.6% estimate made with November data, with a sales tax holiday which ran from mid-December through mid-February enticing consumers to spend. The preliminary estimate for January is for a mod

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating test of 106.35/55 - studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:45 PM UTC

The test of support at the 106.55 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a break to the 106.35 longer-term Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy in broad range
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a minor test higher

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

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Eurozone: More Sobering Economic News
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:21 AM UTC

The February composite PMI data may have not fallen (stable at 50.2) and the weaker-than-expected outcome was dominated by sharp addition weakness in France, but the data will be uncomfortable reading for the ECB.   The data very much suggest that the better news regarding EZ consumer spending see

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 9:08 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 0.9000 is giving way to consolidation above strong support at 0.8965

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring resistance at 1.0500/33
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 8:47 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to further gains

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending January gains
Freemium Article

February 21, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to a break higher

AUD/USD flows: Solid Regional Sentiment
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 5:02 AM UTC

Regional sentiment is positive on the last trading day of the week

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 4:13 AM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

USD/JPY flows: National CPI Jump to 4%
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 3:06 AM UTC

Japan national CPI Jumped to 4% in January
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that rising bond yields could strain the country’s finances

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 2:10 AM UTC

Consolidation around the 1.2600 level has given way to break above the 1.2640 high to extend the broader gains from January low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating retest of 1.0500, scope for break
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.0400 congestion has seen prices back to pressure the 1.0500 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Focus turn to 148.64, December low
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 1:11 AM UTC

Break of the 151.00 support saw sharp losses through the 150.00 level before settling into consolidation at the 149.20, 50% Fibonacci level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:48 AM UTC

Consolidation at the .5700 level has given way to bounce to break the .5750 high to reach .5773 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6400/15 resistance, room for higher
Paying Article

February 21, 2025 12:24 AM UTC

Bounce from the .6330 support has seen gains to reach resistance at the .6400/15 congestion and 38.2% Fibonacci level

February 20, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

North American Summary and Highlights 20 February
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - In a day with limited significant news, the USD was generally softer, particularly in North America. 

Preview: Due March 5 - U.S. February ADP Employment - Stable growth to continue
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

We expect a 175k increase in Februarys ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, similar to January’s 193k and December’s 176k. This is slightly lower than our 190k forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls. We expect overall payrolls including government to rise by 210k.

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Preview: Due March 7 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

We expect a 210k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, with 190k in the private sector, slightly stronger than in January but slower than in November and December. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.0% and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings, following an above trend 0.5% in January.

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Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC

Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025

U.S. Fed's Musalem - Suggests risks skewed to upside
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 5:46 PM UTC

Musalem sounds more hawkish than most recent Fed speakers, though still has a central view of inflation returning to target. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 1.4175

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Still sees two rate cuts this year
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 4:10 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic's central view is a cautious one given uncertainty.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

Eurozone PMIs may limit the EUR upside
GBP may also struggle on weak PMIs and retail sales data
The JPY remains well bid but is approaching important resistance levels
AUD can also outperform if Asian equities are resilient

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

The test of support at 0.6330 has given way to a bounce

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:50 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 150.00 in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Focus back on the 106.55 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

The test above resistance at 107.00 has been pushed back from 107.35/40

U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m.  February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.

Psychology for major markets February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 11:01 AM UTC

USD stabilising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 10:31 AM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

Chart USD/CHF Update: Turning away from 0.9050
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 0.9050 has given way to a pullback

Chart EUR/USD Update: Further losses to remain limited
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.0400

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - downside tests to remain limited
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

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Bunds and ECB Easing/Trump Tariffs
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

          It is highly likely in April that the U.S. will announce a 25% tariff on EU cars and pharmaceuticals (here) and also reciprocal tariffs against the EU. The majority could be implemented given Trump’s desire to raise revenue/dislike of the EU as well as negotiate trade deals. This

JPY flows: JPY testing recent highs
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 8:02 AM UTC

JPY testing recent highs on yield spreads and risk aversion

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

Little impact likely from Australian employment data…
…but AUD still has upside potential
JPY continues to edge higher with CHF/JPY looking particularly vulnerable
GBP strength bolstered by data short term, but little further upside scope

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending consolidation
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 1:57 AM UTC

Limited on break above the 1.2600/10 congestion and Fibonacci level as prices extend consolidation from the 1.2640 high to unwind overbought intraday studies

AUD/USD flows: Solid Labor Market
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 1:49 AM UTC

Australia January 2025 unemployment rate 4.1%

Chart EUR/USD Update: Remains in consolidation
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 1:42 AM UTC

Extending pullback from the 1.0533 high to reach support at the 1.0400 congestion as prices unwind the overbought intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

February 20, 2025 12:47 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices turned down from consolidation around the 152.00 level to retest 151.00