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September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.
September 18, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank all meet, no change expected. SNB still remains the low-yielder and CHF on the backfoot
Geopolitics still a huge focal point, particular attention on Trump meetings this week. Oil back to test key break support. Some NOK profit-taking
Dollar consolidating run up, overal
September 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend
September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f

September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
September 17, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.