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August 18, 2026
Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC
We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
August 18, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 18
August 18, 2026 9:06 AM UTC
Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time - though tensions start to show
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 7:23 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n
August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC
The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold