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June 29, 2026
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jun 23
June 29, 2026 8:19 AM UTC
Latest IMM data underscores mkt strongly long-dollar, playing to current overbought pullback/consolidation
CAD (pre USMCA) and NZD shorts large; AUD remains more sidelined if forced out of longs
GBP shorts at historic highs - last out here in 2017
This occurring at the EUR/GBP range lows - so creates
China Yuan to 6.65 Then 6.50?
June 29, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
· We feel that the authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention, but then allow appreciation to restart. We now see further Yuan appreciation to 6.65 by end 2026, though the authorities will be reluctant to see much more. For end 2027 we forecast USDCNY at 6.50
EUR/USD flows: Still leaning to unwind o/s conditions, better sellers seen above
June 29, 2026 6:45 AM UTC
Fractious w/e gives way to latest stand down and talks to resume
Mkt still leaning towards unwinding overbought dollar but limit seen to correction
Inflation data, period end, Lagarde later; payrolls on the radar
June 26, 2026
Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3
June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
June 26, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
ECB Sin(a)tra Preview: Should the ECB Only Consider My Way?
June 26, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
The speed and manner in which the ECB adopted a hawkish stance is response to the Middle East conflict was no surprise; it has many precedents, some of which have led to policy errors which we think may be being repeated at this juncture. Indeed, despite friendlier price and costs signals, the ECB