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April 30, 2026

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Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 30th
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

BoE Divided Again But Unmoved
Real Economy Buckling Already for ECB 
Government Spending to lead bounce for U.S. Q1 GDP 
U.S. March Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for a limited push higher
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 8:25 AM UTC

The anticipated retest above congestion resistance at 0.7900 has been pushed back from 0.7925~

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 8:03 AM UTC

The anticipated test of strong resistance within the 99.00/18 range has met selling interest at 99.10

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have tested below the 1.1670 weekly low of 23 April

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3500 has given way to a drift lower to support at 1.3450

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Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no

AUD/USD flows: No News Should Be Good News For Now
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 5:30 AM UTC

US CENTCOM to brief Trump Thursday on Iran military options including infrastructure strike, Hormuz seizure and special forces uranium mission

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 30th
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 4:17 AM UTC

BoE Divided Again But Unmoved
Real Economy Buckling Already for ECB 
Government Spending to lead bounce for U.S. Q1 GDP 
U.S. March Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI

USD/JPY flows: Retesting 160
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:16 AM UTC

USD/JPY retesting 160 after breaking it

Chart GBP/USD Update: Lower in consolidation towards 1.3450 support
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 2:06 AM UTC

 Lower in consolidation and return below the 1.3500 level threatens retest of the 1.3450 low of last week

Chart EUR/USD Update: Weighing on 1.1670 support
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:55 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend losses from the 1.1850 high to weigh on support at 1.1670

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating retest of 160.46 YTD high
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:07 AM UTC

Bounce from the 159.00 level has seen gains to retest the March current year high at 160.46

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extend corrective pullback
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 12:46 AM UTC

Break of the .5850/40 support see prices extending pullback from the .5930 high to reach .5815 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower from .7200/22 highs
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 12:22 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath the .7200 level has given way to selling pressure to reach support at the .7110/00 congestion area

April 29, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 29 Apr
Freemium Article

April 29, 2026 8:11 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced as oil reflected increasing Middle East risk, with the move modestly extending after the FOMC meeting. The CAD was relatively resilient after the BoC meeting.

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FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We

U.S. Fed's Powell - Number who want to change language has incrased
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

This is likely to be Powell's last meeting as Chair. Concern over inflation is increasing as we enter the handover to Warsh. 

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FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for a minor test higher
Freemium Article

April 29, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 1.3700

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Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside
Freemium Article

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 29th
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

BoE Divided Again But Unmoved
Real Economy Buckling Already for ECB 
Government Spending to lead bounce for U.S. Q1 GDP 
U.S. March Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI

Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stronger month though March may slip
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

We expect February GDP to increase by 0.3%, slightly stronger than a 0.2% gain predicted with January’s report, though risk is for a weaker preliminary estimate for March. If March declines by 0.1% after a 0.3% February increase, and January’s 0.1% increase is unrevised, this would imply a 1.6%

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy appropriate if economy evolves in line with baseline
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 1:59 PM UTC

The BoC assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs remain at current levels. Policy is seen as appropriate under the baseline.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

April 29, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

Cautious trade beneath strong resistance at the 0.7200 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a drift lower