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September 01, 2026
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC
We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.
EUR/USD flows: HICP up, ECB ready, details nuanced. Blog says 'its all energy' so be measured
September 1, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
HICP as expected, leaves ECB follow up in Sep 100% priced in
Details show all overshoot currently all in energy/processed food
An ECB Blog today (note to the hawks?), gives structural analysis that all energy supply side driven, unlike pandemic, and so requires measured response
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC
· We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias. Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 1-4
September 1, 2026 9:09 AM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and G20 re
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - $ longs cut back before Warsh
September 1, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
Latest IMM data showed dollar longs cut back across most pairs, including CAD, CHF, GBP...
JPY a slight exception, though back to only slightly above average shorts
All prior to Warsh's hawkish pivot, and mkt remains short CAD overall into trade spat, long dollar overall
Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: Yields at the highs; BoE (and GBP?) the laggard?
September 1, 2026 6:55 AM UTC
Distillates remain pressured following the fresh Strait exchanges
Yields at the highs, JGBs at 30yr highs, on the ongoing fiscal, monetary, inflation and premia mix
BoJ, ECB and Fed all odds-on to hike in Sep, BoE the standout - could leave GBP the laggard near-term
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 1-4
September 1, 2026 3:54 AM UTC
Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m
August 31, 2026
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC
We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
Preview: Due September 14 - Canada August CPI - Slightly firmer but with BoC core rates steady
August 31, 2026 3:48 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to edge higher to 3.1% yr/yr from 3.0%, extending the gain from June’s 2.8% but remaining below May’s 3.2%. We also expect a firmer ex food and energy pace at 2.1% from 1.9%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to remain at July’s pace.