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March 26, 2026
Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish
March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC
While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable. It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: The Iran War Shock
March 26, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
· The Iran war macro impact on Asia depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).
· India GDP growth has been revised down slightly
March 25, 2026
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
US Q4 Current Account - Deficit fall assisted by bounce in investment surplus
March 25, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
The Q4 current account deficit of $190.7bn is significantly lower than expected, down from $239.1bn in Q3, and the lowest since Q1 2021. The correction from Q1’s record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn continues.