View:

August 17, 2026

...
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t

Chart USD/MXN Update: Fresh year lows - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low around congestion support at 17.0000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Short-term reactions before further losses unfold
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 4:06 PM UTC

Anticipated selling interest has reached 1.3845

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 18
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

Summer doldrums allow mkt to entertain both low vol risk/dollar and Iran standoff at the same time, for now
Canada trade talks remain a key event for the week
EUR/CHF checked by stiffer resistance at Dec25 highs, but only corrective

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.

U.S. August NAHB Homebuilders Index - Firmer but still subdued
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

August’s NAHB homebuilders index has seen an unexpected rise to 35 from 34 to follow two straight slowings but remains fairly subdued and is not signaling any significant move in new home sales.

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.

USD/CAD flows: CPI data set aside on run in to the key trade event risk
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

CPI data firmer, supporting message from recent real economy data
CAD however circumspect on the run in to the trade deadline, talks seen going to wire

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending late-June gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

Minor consolidation is giving way to anticipated continuation of late-June gains

U.S. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strongest since December 2021
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

August’s Empire State manufacturing index at 20.6 from 15.6 is the strongest since December 2021 and implies that a recent investment-fueled revival in manufacturing persists, though it should be noted that the Empire State survey is quite volatile.

Canada July CPI - Like the economy, picking up from recent core weakness
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

July’s Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% is slightly stronger than expected, with the Bank of Canada’s core rates on balance slightly firmer, if still close to target for CPI-Median and CPI-Trim. The data suggests underlying inflation is about where the BoC wants, and may reduce f

Chart USD/JPY Update: Range trade - daily studies ticking higher
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and prompt further cautious trade within the relatively tight 159.00 - 159.50 range

Weekly Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending late-June gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

Cautious/choppy trade around 1.3500 has given way to the anticipated break

...
From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Aug 17-21
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 8:58 AM UTC

Canada trade deadline a wildcard, but skew has been favouring a short CAD squeeze
FOMC Minutes may give more insight to Fed debate
US yield retreat chips at $ longs, although also supports summer low vol risk (for now...)

Psychology for major markets Aug 17
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Another Breath before Weekend

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure in both USD- and CHF-driven trade
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.8150 is giving way to a pullback in both USD- and CHF-driven trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 99.50 has given way to a break

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 11, little change in the week
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

IMM data for w/e Aug 11 generally shows little change across counters, still very long $ overall
Yen shorts still smallest since Apr, and around 'normal' levels for recent years
Market remains extreme CAD short into trade deadline - binary event but squeeze risk evident
MXN longs inch back out amid the

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending late-June gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 7:43 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to fresh gains

Chart GBP/USD Update: Poised for further gains
Freemium Article

August 17, 2026 7:28 AM UTC

Consolidation following the anticipated test of strong resistance at the 1.3558 monthly high of 15 July is giving way to renewed buying interest

Weekly Chart AUD/USD: Extending gains
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 7:27 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath strong resistance the .7080/.7100 area last week has given way to break to extend choppy gains from the .6865, late-June low

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - still low vol summer usd/risk versus Iran standoff
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 7:02 AM UTC

Better risk/usd tone holds in, amid low vol and equity resilience
The question mark remains for how long as both US and Iran play the long game stand off

AUD/USD flows: USD Softer To Begin the Week
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 4:19 AM UTC

USD Soft Start

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Aug 17-21
Paying Article

August 17, 2026 4:05 AM UTC

Canada trade deadline a wildcard, but skew has been favouring a short CAD squeeze
FOMC Minutes may give more insight to Fed debate
US yield retreat chips at $ longs, although also supports summer low vol risk (for now...)
Various/CHF still trend up...

Home
Directory
Add Post
Inbox
My Account