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May 01, 2026

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 4th-8th
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Not as strong as March but some positive signals
And Other U.S. Data
Sweden Riksbank On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time
Canada April Employment A modest gain with stable unemployment

U.S. Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan explain their hawkish dissents
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

The three hawkish dissents at the latest meeting were against an easing bias. Kashkari seems the most hawkish, with a leaning to tightening. Hammack and Logan both noted resilence in activity data as well as infltionary risk. There was a dovish dissent from Miran, but he will leave the Fed once Wars

U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Stable but with higher inflationary pressure
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

April’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is unchanged from March and slightly below expectations but this still means four straight clearly positive readings from an index that had been running below neutral for the ten preceding months.

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Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?
Freemium Article

May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC

The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months.  While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Extending April losses
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break lower to 1.5915~

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 1, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish
BoE MPC Playing Its Cards Safe
ECB Mixed Communications
Bank of Canada Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumption
BoJ Slightly Hawkish Hold

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 1st
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 9:25 AM UTC

Tokyo CPI Remain Below 2%
USD/JPY Recovering From Intervention
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Highest composite and prices paid since 2022

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

Consolidation around 0.7900 has given way to a sharp break lower to congestion support at 0.7800 in heightened volatility

Psychology for major markets May 1
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 9:06 AM UTC

Another Round of JPY Intervention?

Chart AUD/USD Update: Balanced at year highs
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 8:44 AM UTC

Steady intraday gains have reached resistance at the 0.7200 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/JPY Update: Under pressure in heightened volatility
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

Choppy trade has posted a fresh spike lower in heightened volatility

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 8:01 AM UTC

Cautious trade beneath 99.00/18 has given way to a sharp fall to congestion support at 98.00

Chart EUR/USD Update: Immediate gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a push higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Room for higher
Freemium Article

May 1, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp bounce

AUD/USD flows: Broader Risk Mood Positive
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 5:14 AM UTC

Broader Risk Mood Positive

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 1st
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 4:48 AM UTC

Tokyo CPI Remain Below 2%
USD/JPY Recovering From Intervention
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Highest composite and prices paid since 2022

USD/JPY flows: Soft Tokyo CPI Reverse Partial Intervention Effort
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 1:15 AM UTC

Japan head intervention official won't comment on FX or oil futures intervention
All three item of Tokyo CPI below target

April 30, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 30 Apr
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 7:48 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer, most notably USD/JPY with the BoJ seen behind the move, though oil coming off its highs saw the USD slipping elsewhere too. 

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Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Chart USD/MXN Update: Strong resistance up to 17.6450
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh push higher

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a pullback in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 1st
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Tokyo CPI Should Remain Below 2%
USD/JPY Threatens Further Break
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Highest composite and prices paid since 2022

Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.

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Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo