FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 18th

November 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD firm as December Fed easing expectations fade
JPY weakness extends further, but intervention risks rising
EUR/JPY looks overextended on all measures
AUD should find good support despite equity dip

North American Summary and Highlights 17 Nov

November 17, 2025 8:55 PM UTC

Overview -
Equity weakness meant a risk-off tone, with USD/JPY reaching a fresh high and the commodity currencies under pressure.

U.S. Fed's Waller - Clear call for 25bps easing in December

November 17, 2025 8:44 PM UTC

Fed's Waller latest comment is significant, given that in mid-October he was unconvinced of the need to ease beyond the move seen in late October.

Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive

November 17, 2025 6:58 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating

November 17, 2025 4:26 PM UTC

Still little change, negative intraday studies stabilise and prompt extended consolidation within the 1.4000 - 1.4050 range

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 18th

November 17, 2025 4:19 PM UTC

USD firm as December Fed easing expectations fade
JPY weakness extends further, but intervention risks rising
EUR/JPY looks overextended on all measures
AUD should find good support despite equity dip

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Fed should proceed slowly as approach neutral

November 17, 2025 3:41 PM UTC

Fed's Jefferson is more dovish than several, but does not appear convinced of the case for a December easing at this point.

U.S. August Construction Spending - Housing trend turning positive

November 17, 2025 3:15 PM UTC

August construction spending, originally scheduled to be released in early October, has now been released, and is on the firm side of expectations, August marginally with a 0.2% increase, but July was revised to a 0.2% rise from -0.1% and June significantly to a 0.5% rise from a 0.4% decline.

JPY flows: Another new post February USD/JPY high

November 17, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

USD/JPY breaking through 155. Risk of intervention rising

U.S. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity sees 12 month high, prices slower but still firm

November 17, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

November’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 18.7 from 10.7 is the strongest in twelve months, and the third healthy number in four months, though with November 2024 strength at 20.7 not having persisted we would treat the latest strength with a degree of caution.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating

November 17, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 0.6550

Canada October CPI - BoC core rates mostly slower, but still running above target

November 17, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

October Canadian CPI has slowed to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though excluding gasoline the yr/yr increase was 2.6% in each month. The BoC’s core rates were however mostly slower, CPI-Median at 2.9% from 3.1%, CPI-Trim at 3.0% from 3.1%, though CPI-Common was unchanged at 2.7%. Year ago st

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Recent gains not sustained

November 17, 2025 12:23 PM UTC

The break above congestion resistance at 1.6300 has been pushed back from 1.6340

Psychology for major markets Nov 17

November 17, 2025 11:10 AM UTC

USD mostly steady as delayed US data awaited

FX Weekly Strategy: November 17th-21st

November 17, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

 Market focus on potential release of US data
Equities showing some nerves with Fed easing now seen as less likely
JPY weakness and CHF strength are extreme
GBP to remain under pressure

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating recent losses

November 17, 2025 9:42 AM UTC

The test below 0.7900 has bounced sharply from 0.7878, with prices reaching congestion resistance at 0.7950