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September 17, 2026
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
September 17, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives
September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Maintaining a healthy trend
September 17, 2026 12:13 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in August industrial production with a 0.4% increase in manufacturing, the latter up from a 0.2% increase in July though for manufacturing ex autos we expect a second straight rise of 0.4%. This would maintain a healthy trend, supported by AI investment.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC 'passes'; still back of the tightening pack
September 17, 2026 11:23 AM UTC
BoE leaves rates unchanged with unchanged vote.
November IR month remains the real test as the Bank takes stock of length of supply shock and so risk balance
Mkt already running ahead of the MPC though in terms of pricing, BoE remains back of the major CB pack
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: back-to-back or election pause could be key $ factor
September 17, 2026 9:46 AM UTC
After Fed hike, whether it goes back-to-back or waits for Dec could be a key factor for the $ near-term
History has tended to favour the follow up moves, but election is the big elephant in the room this time
Oct is heavily loaded symbolically, both in terms of how mkt would price (majority Fed dots o
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 17
September 17, 2026 9:11 AM UTC
Fed pivots to catch up with the curve on inflation, dots see 1 (to 2) more hikes
Swift turn does enough to bolster dollar, cable especially pressured unless BoE changes tune
USD/JPY runs into supply up here, with the BoJ Friday now critical, even more important it matches the pick up in pace
USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows: Supply, expiries cap USD/JPY back; focus turns to BoE MPC
September 17, 2026 7:07 AM UTC
Consolidation of the post Fed move overall
USD/JPY weighed back from 156+ by supply and approaching large expiry at 155, ahead of key BoJ meeting
Focus today on the BoE, seen unchanged but judging the vote and the tone. Seen slowing QT
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause