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March 25, 2026
March 24, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 24, 2026 6:49 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February
March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 24, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement
March 24, 2026 2:34 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.
Commodities Outlook: The War in Action
March 24, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
Oil markets in 2026 have been extremely volatile due to the conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Under our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here), we project WTI to average between USD 65 and 70 by year-end. In an alternative scenario of a prolonged multi-month conflict, pri
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 24, 2026 12:39 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow
March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
• The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e
DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths
March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
· The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June