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June 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
The US-Iran memorandum marks a turn, but a fragile one. We attach 80% probability to the Strait of Hormuz reopening over June/July and staying open through 2027, and 20% to a second-half reclosure if Israel-Hezbollah tensions draw Iran back in (here). Most of the war premium has already unwound, and

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3. With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ

June 23, 2026 7:43 AM UTC
· We have revised 2026 Japan GDP only slightly lower to 0.8% as wage growth is solidly above 3%, which will support consumption for the rest of 2026/27. The extension of energy stimulus will cap headline inflation for Q2/Q3 2026. For the BOJ, despite hawkish forward guidance, the 1% r
June 22, 2026 6:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
June 22, 2026 5:37 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.