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June 18, 2026
Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April
June 18, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum
June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE avoids hawkish surprise, cross drifting up off range floor
June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC
BoE delivers the expected 7-2 vote for unchanged
Small lift for EUR/GBP on confirmation and lack of hawkish surprise
Overall, recent action remains largely technical driven with the recent measured range bounce
BOE: Gang of 6 and Steady 2026 Rates
June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC
Though Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in calling for a one off 25bps risk management hike, 6 MPC members feel that disinflation is showing through and a soft economy and labor market warrants waiting to see energy prices and potential 2nd round effects. This gang of 6 also feels that markets have ti
Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May
June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha
Norges Bank Review (Jun 18): Higher Rates Then Down?
June 18, 2026 8:23 AM UTC
The June Norges bank statement had a hawkish bias with a higher policy rate profile than in March MPR (Figure 1) and concerns voiced again over persistent domestic inflation pressures. The Norges bank appear ready to move in September or November. However, the Iran/U.S. deal impact on energy pri
EUR/NOK flows: Norges Bank sticks to script, but NOK focused more on Iran/oil
June 18, 2026 8:20 AM UTC
Norges sticks to script on upside inflation risks and likely need for a further hike
Yet it also acknowledges Iran deal and that energy drop could weaken pressures
Overall EUR/NOK still correcting 2026 downtrend on Iran/ ToT trade unwind/profit-taking
SNB: Holding Steady on Rates
June 18, 2026 7:54 AM UTC
The June quarterly assessment saw little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation (Figure 1), with the tone of the economic outlook remained guarded due to concerns over the Iran war on the global economy (forecasts though look to have been completed before the U.S. Iran deal). With