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October 12, 2026
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
UK GDP Preview: Growth Could Surprise Negatively in August
October 12, 2026 4:04 PM UTC
The economy is expected to have contracted by -0.1% m/m in August following a gain of 0.4% in July. Recall that July’s outturn was better than markets had ben expecting with growth boosted by the services sector, computer programming, and a spending boom in AI and cloud computing activities. Beyon
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
October 12, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
US Sep CPI in focus – upside risks persist?
October 12, 2026 11:28 AM UTC
While we look for a consensus 0.2% core CPI, background trends do suggest some risks
Both seasonals and high headline CPI months bring some generic upside skews
Along with French/euro developments, CPI prints are the major focus for the week, dollar defensively supported prior
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - euro shorts ramp up (though not extreme big picture)
October 12, 2026 7:46 AM UTC
IMM data confirms the jump into euro shorts, largest negative position since Feb-20, playing to current consolidation of fast run
That said, only around -1 stdev, not super extreme by past standards (Apr2015 for instance got 2.2x more short)
Dollar overall is back out to the recent overall net long 'w
China’s Quite 2nd Tier Banking Clean Up
October 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The quite though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply. Equity capital injections to 8 large state banks is
