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August 25, 2026
FOMC Discount Rate minutes show four districts backed a July hike
August 25, 2026 6:44 PM UTC
Minutes from the Fed’s discount rate meetings shortly before the July FOMC meeting show a not very hawkish 4 votes (out of 12) to increase the Discount Rate, from the Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City and Minneapolis Feds.
Preview: Due September 1 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still strong if a little less so
August 25, 2026 4:04 PM UTC
We expect modest slippage in August’s ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 55.6, a level that was the highest since May 2022. August’s level will remain above June’s 53.3 and keep every month in 2026 to date clearly positive, contrasting a 10-month string of negatives ending in December 2025.?
Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?
August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC
* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t
U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail
August 25, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward rev
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
August 25, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 25, 2026 12:17 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Still firm, if with some slowing on prices
August 25, 2026 11:58 AM UTC
We expect a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders with a 0.7% increase ex defense and a 0.8% increase ex transport. This will suggest some loss of what remains healthy underlying momentum, though the slowing probably reflects prices more than volumes.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 25
August 25, 2026 9:19 AM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e
UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’
August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - TGA mooted to cash roll buybacks, but just semantics
August 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC
Brent stays limited by $95 out of latest exchanges; mkt waits on next key events
Speculation on TGA for buyback funding. Ultimately cash flow management for what are twist operations
US2s30s have flattened, but pivotally, and actions have not been making a good impression for the dollar
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 25
August 25, 2026 4:50 AM UTC
Reactive policy, Canada, Iran, maybe later US election - chips away at risk sentiment but also dollar confidence
FX volatility likely picking up from the extreme summer lows
CAD reaction so far measured - well within 1.3850-1.39 bounce resistance and supply
US PCE, Nvidia, Warsh remain the week's key e