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August 13, 2025
September Fed ease now more likely than not, but far from assured
August 13, 2025 3:29 PM UTC
A September FOMC easing now looks more likely than not, but remains far from a done deal. We are however revising our call to two 25bps FOMC easings this year, in September and December, from just one, in December. 2026 is harder still to call given threats to Fed independence, but we continue to ex
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. June PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions
August 13, 2025 2:59 PM UTC
We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 14th
August 13, 2025 2:54 PM UTC
AUD vulnerable if Australian employment data is weak
GBP risks on the downside on GDP data
NOK at attractive levels ahead of Norges Bank decision
USD more likely to gain than fall on PPI
Underlying positive risks tone hard to justify longer term
China: Echoes of Japan?
August 13, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
Overall, some of China’s private businesses and households are suffering from Japan’s style balance sheet recession. Combined with slowing productivity and a shrinking workforce, this points to slower trend growth in the coming years. However, fiscal stimulus and the clean-up of Loca
India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices
August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b
August 12, 2025
U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July
August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC
Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to return to normal, trend marginally positive
August 12, 2025 4:44 PM UTC
We expect July durable goods orders to fall by 4.5%, extending a 9.4% decline in June, but still not quite fully reversing a 16.5% surge in May. Aircraft will continue to lead the moves. Ex transport we expect a 0.1% increase, in line with a trend that is now marginally positive.