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December 19, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, December 19th
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 5:46 AM UTC

BoJ rate hike is not enough to reverse JPY decline
Forward guidance to be watched, but intervention may be necessary
GBP likely to hold gains as long as retail sales aren’t terrible
AUD may extend recovery on lower US yields

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Hike by 25bps As Expected
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 5:45 AM UTC

BoJ Hike by 25bps As Expected

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extend choppy trade around 1.3400 level
Freemium Article

December 19, 2025 1:59 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend choppy trade around the 1.3400 level following pullback from the 1.3455 high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower from test of 1.1800
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 1:45 AM UTC

Leaning lower in consolidation from test of the 1.1800 level as prices unwind the overbought intraday and daily studies

USD/JPY flows: National CPI Supportive for BoJ's Rate Hike
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 1:31 AM UTC

November National CPI at 2.9%, ex fresh food, ex fresh food & energy at 3%

Chart USD/JPY Update: Higher in consolidation from 154.45 support
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 12:53 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 156.00 level following bounce from the 154.45 support

Chart NZD/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 12:29 AM UTC

Little change, as prices holds steady above the .5755/50 area to consolidate pullback from the .5830 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating above .6600, room for lower
Paying Article

December 19, 2025 12:19 AM UTC

Limited on break of the .6600 level as prices edged up to consolidate pullback from the .6685 high

December 18, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, December 19th
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

BoJ rate hike may not be enough to reverse JPY decline
Forward guidance to be watched, but intervention may be necessary
GBP likely to hold gains as long as retail sales aren’t terrible
AUD may extend recovery on lower US yields

North American Summary and Highlights 18 Dec
Freemium Article

December 18, 2025 8:53 PM UTC

Overview - Softer than expected US CPI data saw the USD slip but it ended well off its lows. GBP saw some support from a BoE vote showing four dissents from a decision to ease. 

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Preview: Due January 9 - U.S. December Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slightly firmer with unchanged unemployment
Freemium Article

December 18, 2025 8:46 PM UTC

We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.

Preview: Due January 9 - Canada December Employment - Recent strength unlikely to persist
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 6:32 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in December, a number that is probably closer to trend than the three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to correct higher to 6.7% from 6.5% in November, still below October’s 6.9% and the 7.1% highs of July and Aug

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

December 18, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 1.3800

Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 4:19 PM UTC

We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, December 19th
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 4:11 PM UTC

BoJ rate hike may not be enough to reverse JPY decline
Forward guidance to be watched, but intervention may be necessary
GBP likely to hold gains as long as retail sales aren’t terrible
AUD may extend recovery on lower US yields

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ECB Review: On Hold Message to Convert to Easing on Disinflation
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

·       The ECB increased its 2026 GDP and inflation forecast and appears happy with current policy rate levels.  However, still tight financial conditions, plus easing wage growth, point to disinflation and growth disappointment.  We see this switch the ECB from an on hold message to easin

Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 2:37 PM UTC

We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.6600 is giving way to consolidation

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DM FX Outlook: Scope for USD decline against JPY, AUD and NOK
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: We expect some modest USD losses across the board over the next couple of years, but there is much more scope for losses against the JPY, AUD and NOK than the other G10 currencies, as yield spreads have moved dramatically in favour of these currencies, and the currencies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 156.00 is giving way to a pullback

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U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?
Freemium Article

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

USD flows: USD slips on weaker CPI
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Weaker than expected US October/November CPI triggers USD sell off

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BoE Review (Dec 18): Splits More Entrenched?

December 18, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

That the BoE delivered a sixth 25 bp rate cut (to an almost three-year low of 3.75%) was hardly in doubt.  But we were surprised that amid the recent run of weak data, that there were (again) four dissents with Governor Bailey switching sides.  Notably, in a clear combative overtone, at least some

GBP flows: GBP firmer as BoE hawks hold firm
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 12:17 PM UTC

GBP firmer as BoE cuts but remains gradualist

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EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help
Paying Article

December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

•    EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter.  We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru