North American Summary and Highlights 3 November

November 3, 2026 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly firmer on a mostly consolidative day. 

Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer

November 3, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates. 

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade - room for a minor corrective bounce

November 3, 2026 5:14 PM UTC

Little change, as cautious trade extends pressure on congestion resistance at 1.4000

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ISM Services - Edging higher

November 3, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

We expect an October ISM services index of 55.0, little changed from September’s 54.9, but sustaining a marginal positive bias to recent trend.

U.S. September JOLTS report clearly positive

November 3, 2026 3:12 PM UTC

September’s JOLTS report on labor turnover makes positive reading. Openings rise by 333k, more than fully reversing a 145k decline in August. The 3 and 6 month averages are both positive and close to 100k.

UK BoE Preview: One and Done?

November 3, 2026 3:02 PM UTC

The BoE is poised to lift policy rates to 4% this week with polls suggesting the vote will be 7-2 in favour of a 25bp move. The Bank will also update its macroeconomic projections to show a higher peak in inflation. Two external members, Taylor and Dhingra, are once again expected to vote to keep ra

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure

November 3, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

Choppy trade around 0.7000 has given way to anticipated losses

Chart USD/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies improving

November 3, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance around 158.00

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher

November 3, 2026 1:47 PM UTC

We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend

November 3, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Nov 3

November 3, 2026 9:54 AM UTC

Oil back in focus and with it NOK's exposure to positive scenarios that are less hedged; news remains chequered
RBA delivers hike and may be done now, market pricing in a flat outlook
US still waiting for midterms then payrolls

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending losses

November 3, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below the 0.8175 Fibonacci retracement to reach congestion support at 0.8150

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade - daily studies under pressure

November 3, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at the 101.50 break level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced around 1.1200 - daily studies rising

November 3, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 1.1200 has reached 1.1235~, where unwinding overbought intraday studies have prompted a pullback into fresh consolidation around 1.1200