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August 04, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 4 August
Freemium Article

August 4, 2026 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - While the market saw some optimism on Middle East peace prospects, the FX market was quiet. 

Preview: Due August 28 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 3.3% annualized, in line with what monthly data is implying, assuming the preliminary estimate for a 0.2% increase in June is accurate and gains of 0.3% in May and 0.6% in April are unrevised. This will mark a return to growth after two straight negative quar

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited CAD-driven gains
Freemium Article

August 4, 2026 3:59 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a CAD-driven bounce

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Aug 5
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

June Labor Cash Earning Critical for BoJ
So as NZ Wage Growth
U.S. July ADP Employment suggests some slowing
ISM Services Keeping to a tight range

U.S. June JOLTS report shows job openings correcting lower but Q2 remains positive
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

June’s JOLTS report has shown a 178k decline in job openings with May revised to a 48k decline from a 9k increase. With April having seen a strong 698k increase the 3-month average is still firm at 157k, while the 6-month average is similar at 135k. Q1 also saw a strong rise at the start of the mo

Weekly Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

Choppy trade above the 1.1325 current year low of 24 June has given way to a sharp bounce in JPY-driven global volatility

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

The test below congestion support at 0.7000 has bounced from 0.6985

...
U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Quiet trade, but studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

Consolidation around 157.00 has given way to further gains

U.S. Fed's Paulson - If policy is in the right place inflation will ease
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson backed keeping policy on hold but needs inflation to fall if she is to maintain that stance. 

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ISM Services - Keeping to a tight range
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

We expect a July ISM services index of 54.5, returning to May’s level after a dip to 54.0 in June. The index has been in a tight range since December, apart from a brief bounce to 56.1 in February.

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Aug 4
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 9:28 AM UTC

US admin may be more fickle, but joint intervention has tended to work...
Waiting for payrolls. Is CHF now the most responsive to US data? 
Oil and NOK continue to be marked to US gyrations on Iran

Psychology for major markets Aug 4
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran's Rhetoric Remains Confusing

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Flows: Consolidation on a quiet day, same big picture issues
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

After a few wilder sessions, market in quiter consolidation amid stretched moves, quiet calendar
Same big picture issues remain in the background, payrolls next extra input

Chart USD/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 8:30 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 0.8100 has extended to 0.8115

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to the anticipated test of congestion resistance at 100.00

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

The pullback from the 1.1560 high of 3 August has reached congestion support at 1.1500

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating pullback from 1.3500
Freemium Article

August 4, 2026 7:26 AM UTC

The minor pullback following the test of congestion resistance at 1.3500 has reached 1.3420

USD/JPY flows: Retesting Monday's High
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 5:24 AM UTC

Retesting Monday's High

Weekly Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating losses, but downside still vulnerable
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 5:00 AM UTC

Rejection from the 164.00 high to break support at the 162.84 high of 1 July gave way to sharp losses through the 2024 year high at 161.95 and the 160.00 figure.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Aug 4
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

US admin may be more fickle, but joint intervention has tended to work...
Waiting for payrolls. Is CHF now the most responsive to US data? 
Oil and NOK continue to be marked to US gyrations on Iran

AUD/USD flows: Strong household spending
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 3:54 AM UTC

Australia June household spending up 0.8%

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3500
Freemium Article

August 4, 2026 1:58 AM UTC

Backed off from test of the 1.3500 level as prices consolidate strong gains from the 1.3275 low of last week

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