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May 15, 2026
May 14, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 14, 2026 4:17 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 14, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience
May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p
UK Politics – A Laboured Labour Election Ahead?
May 14, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
It is somewhat ironic that as markets (particularly gilts) fret over a shift to the left causing less fiscal prudency, it is actually the centre of the Labour party that is fermenting the most uncertainty. (Now Ex) Secretary Streeting has yet to make a formal bid to challenge PM Starmer for the le
CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures
May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the