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June 08, 2026
DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?
June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC
· Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled. Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 8, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Some positive signals
June 8, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to increase by 2.0% to 4.10m, extending a marginal 0.2% increase in April but still not fully reversing March’s 2.9% decline. This would bring the first yr/yr increase since October 2025, by 1.5%, following a flat April.
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
June 8, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra
June 05, 2026
Preview: Due June 16 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Slightly lower on volatile multiples
June 5, 2026 4:47 PM UTC
We look for May housing starts and permits to both see modest declines, with starts down by 2.4% to 1.43m and permits down by 0.2% to 1.42m. The detail is likely to see gains in the single family sector outweighed by corrections lower in multiples.