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July 28, 2026
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
July 28, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:50 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:49 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP
July 28, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.
U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP
July 28, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.
China: Debt Surge Problems
July 28, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· China general government debt/GDP is on an unstable upward trend. China authorities are reluctant to ease underlying fiscal policy more than the already large primary budget deficit, but are also reluctant to consider broadening of income tax or property taxes that would help fiscal
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Kospi hammered
July 28, 2026 6:38 AM UTC
Kospi hammered, slumping another 10%, keeping tech weighed
FX not sure what to do with it, though AUD/USD rolled back from 0.7, could correct recent lift
And USD/JPY might in theory see some adjustment selling into mth-end, with Nikkei also underperforming