North American Summary and Highlights 2 September

September 2, 2026 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - The USD slipped led by USD/JPY and a more hawkish than expected Bank of Canada. 

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar to previous report, if marginally slower

September 2, 2026 7:18 PM UTC

The latest Fed Beige Book is similar to the last one though marginally slower on both activity and prices. 

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage

September 2, 2026 6:44 PM UTC

We expect August existing home sales to see a third straight monthly fall, by 2.0% to 3.98m, which would be the lowest level since a matching June 2025. That would see yr/yr growth slip to -1.2% from a positive 0.7%.

Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Inflation concerns stressed in press conference

September 2, 2026 3:10 PM UTC

The BoC statement had a hawkish lean. That lean is becoming increasingly clear in the press conference.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Sep 3

September 2, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

Challenging backdrop as rising yields apply pressure, creates potential volatile correlations
Current default mode is squeezing both sides - CHF as the low yielder, risk counters on the other
JPY finds support, rotation incentives intensify
Sterling slipping in favour as hike laggard and amid global pr

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Seems slightly more concerned about prices than growth

September 2, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

While the BoC left rates unchanged and noted risks on both sides the concerns on prices seem to outweigh growth worries caused by tariffs.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Choppy around 0.7150 - daily studies under pressure

September 2, 2026 1:45 PM UTC

The test below congestion support at 0.7150 has bounced from 0.7120~

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in JPY-driven trade

September 2, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

The anticipated test above congestion resistance at 160.00 has been pushed back from 160.40 in JPY-driven trade

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. August ISM Services - Slightly firmer within a tight range

September 2, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

We expect an August ISM services index of 54.5, up from 54.1 in July but keeping the index in a tight range, which held between 53.6 and 54.5 between March and July. 

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit

September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca

U.S. Fed's Williams - Yields rising on strong economy

September 2, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

Fed's Williams does not sound hawkish on inflation. Fed's Waller speaks tomorrow and should be watched.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: As you were out of ADP, mkt still digesting backdrop

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ADP broaldy within expectations, offers no new lean into payrolls
Minor adjustments on non-yielding (CHF) and risk sides
But otherwise contained trade, digesting how bond-risk-FX plays out near-term

U.S. August ADP Employment - Consistent with low hiring and low firing

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

August’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 38k is on the weak side of expectations, and a slight slowing from a subdued July of 46k (revised only marginally from 44k). 

Weekly Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower - sentiment and studies under pressure

September 2, 2026 12:01 PM UTC

Consolidation following the test of strong resistance at 1.1700, (congestion and 50% Fibonacci retracement), has given way to a pullback

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 2

September 2, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

RBNZ Hike by 25bps
Bank of Canada Risks on both sides 
U.S. August ADP Another subdued month

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending gains in USD- and CHF-driven trade

September 2, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Consolidation above 0.8100 has given way to anticipated gains

Psychology for major markets Sep 2

September 2, 2026 8:26 AM UTC

Risk Broadly Soft

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Pushing higher

September 2, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

Consolidation above congestion support at 99.50 has given way to anticipated gains 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower

September 2, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious/choppy trade above support at the 1.1578 low from 28-31 August

Chart GBP/USD Update: Prices remain under pressure

September 2, 2026 7:45 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.3500