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October 12, 2026
US Sep CPI in focus – upside risks persist?
October 12, 2026 11:28 AM UTC
While we look for a consensus 0.2% core CPI, background trends do suggest some risks
Both seasonals and high headline CPI months bring some generic upside skews
Along with French/euro developments, CPI prints are the major focus for the week, dollar defensively supported prior
IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - euro shorts ramp up (though not extreme big picture)
October 12, 2026 7:46 AM UTC
IMM data confirms the jump into euro shorts, largest negative position since Feb-20, playing to current consolidation of fast run
That said, only around -1 stdev, not super extreme by past standards (Apr2015 for instance got 2.2x more short)
Dollar overall is back out to the recent overall net long 'w
China’s Quite 2nd Tier Banking Clean Up
October 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· The quite though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply. Equity capital injections to 8 large state banks is
October 09, 2026
Canada September Employment - Public sector fully explains the sharp decline
October 9, 2026 12:58 PM UTC
Canada’s September employment report shows a strikingly weak headline with a 68.3k decline in employment though the decline is fully explained by a 70k decline in the public sector, while most of the decline (49.4k) came in Quebec. Still, unemployment did increase, to 6.5% from 6.4% as expected. T
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through