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June 24, 2026
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 24, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
U.S. May New Home Sales - Second straight decline suggests trend is weakening
June 24, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
May new home sales with a 7.3% decline to 580k have extended a 5.7% decline in April. Housing indicators are mixed overall but new home sales appear to have broken out of what had been a fairly stable range to the downside.
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to correct lower, but ex transport trend positive
June 24, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods orders to fall by 4.0% overall after a rise of 8.0% in April, the moves led by volatility in aircraft. Ex transport we expect an increase of 0.8%, slightly slower than three straight gains in excess of 1.0%, but maintaining a positive trend.
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
June 24, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.
US Q1 Current Account - Deficit increases on lower investment income surplus
June 24, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
The Q1 current account deficit of $226.8bn is wider than expected, and up from $221.1bn in Q4, with Q4’s deficit revised significantly higher from $190.7bn in the original Q4 release. This is the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.2bn in Q1 2025.
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
· The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we
China and EM Asia Outlook: Divergent Trends
June 24, 2026 6:22 AM UTC
· China’s growth momentum is being sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. However, growth is imbalanced with modest consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we forecast 4.4% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027. Chi