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April 27, 2025
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, April 28th - May 2nd
April 27, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels
April 25, 2025
Canada Election: Liberal Victory Likely, Stable Policy Expected
April 25, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
Canada’s election takes place on Monday. A victory for the ruling Liberals looks likely, but polls are close enough to mean that a hung parliament or even a majority for the opposition Conservatives, while unlikely, is not to be ruled out. Should the Conservatives spring a surprise, a more concili
FX Weekly Strategy: April 28th - May 2nd
April 25, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
General risk recovery may be near an end
US GDP to be more significant than employment data
JPY correction likely to be near complete
EUR could benefit from relative GDP strength
CAD may be vulnerable if Liberals retain power
NOK has scope to return to end March levels
CBR Continues to Keep Key Rate Constant at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
April 25, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the policy rate stable on April 25 for the fourth consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target
Canada February Retail Sales - Slippage from strong December continues, but March seen firmer
April 25, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
Canada’s February retail sales with a 0.4% decline are in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s data but saw a stronger than expected 0.5% increase ex autos. Despite growing downside economic risks, the preliminary estimate for March is surprisingly positive, with a rise of 0.7%.
U.S/China Trade Standoff: Odds Remain Towards Truce
April 25, 2025 7:09 AM UTC
On balance, our baseline still remains a U.S./China trade deal (55-60%) being reached, given Trump deal instincts; China desire for a deal and the economic disadvantage of an economic cold war to the U.S. when it is trying to reset trade with all countries. Timeline is Q4 2025 or H1 2026. An al
April 24, 2025
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Further slippage seen
April 24, 2025 4:51 PM UTC
We expect an April ISM manufacturing index of 48.0, which would be the weakest since October. While the S and P manufacturing index saw an unexpected rise in April most regional manufacturing surveys have been weak, the Philly Fed particularly so.
U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February bounce more than fully earsed
April 24, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
March existing home sales with a 5.9% fall to 4.02m are the weakest since September and contrast a strong month from new home sales, leaving the overall housing picture unclear. The data does follow weakness in recent pending home sales data and other survey evidence.
U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft surge, ex transport subdued, Initial Claims still low
April 24, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
March durable goods orders have risen by an exceptional 9.2%, though an unchanged ex transport figure suggests a subdued underlying picture. The transport rise was led by aircraft, though autos also increased. Initial claims rose to 222k from 216k, but remain consistent with a healthy labor market.
EZ HICP Preview (May 2): Headline Lower Again But Mainly Energy?
April 24, 2025 8:39 AM UTC
EZ HICP inflation is likely to fall back to the 2% target in flash April data, this six-month low would largely reflect a fall in fuel prices, but with services largely consolidating the clear fall seen last time around (Figure 1). All of which would mean a stable core reading of 2.4% but where th
USD Rebalancing: Some to EM?
April 24, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
Some portfolios rotations towards EM assets will likely be evident, as we see the USD decline is now extending and broadening. However, flows will likely be selective, both given underwhelming EM performance in the last 5-10 years and the uncertainty over how much Trump will reduce reciprocal tari