Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase i

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

Iran War Scenarios Updated

March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

·       Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory.  A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for

Chartbook: Chart GBP/USD: Corrective pullback into the coming weeks

March 23, 2026 11:11 AM UTC

The anticipated continuation of September 2022 gains has tested above the 1.3785~ year high of 1 July 2025 to post a fresh 2026 year high at 1.3865/7

Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?

March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable.  It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’.  The question is whether

Chartbook: Chart EUR/USD: Corrective pullback into the coming weeks

March 23, 2026 10:08 AM UTC

The anticipated test of strong resistance at congestion around 1.2000 and the 1.2020 multi-year Fibonacci retracement has given way to a sharp pullback from the 1.2080~ current year high of 27 January