View:
June 22, 2026
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 22, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?
June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC
· Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to
Germany/France/Italy and Spain: Growth and Inflation Outlooks
June 22, 2026 10:25 AM UTC
· We have retained our 2026 GDP picture of 0.3% (Our Forecasts below) and actually pared back that for next year, with more and more signs that China is continuing to ship cheap products to Germany (lower energy prices post Iran war still help 2027). For France, we have made a 0.3% do
Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies
June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
· In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast. 12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s
June 19, 2026
CBR Extends Easing Cycle but Slows Pace Amid Global Inflation Risks
June 19, 2026 6:23 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Following 50 bps rate cut on April 24—driven by the disinflationary trend in H1— the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) extended its easing cycle on June 19. However, the bank opted for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction, lowering the key rate from 14.5% to 14.25% citing mounting global i