View:
August 14, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Aug 17-21
August 14, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
Canada trade deadline a wildcard, but skew has been favouring a short CAD squeeze
FOMC Minutes may give more insight to Fed debate
US yield retreat chips at $ longs, although also supports summer low vol risk (for now...)
Various/CHF still trend up...
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates
August 14, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
China Widening C/A Surplus
August 14, 2026 7:05 AM UTC
• China could reduce its excess current account surplus by a package of real Yuan appreciation; industrial policy reform to clean up excess production and structural boosts to safety nets that can sustainably boost consumption share in GDP. China authorities are reluctant to adopt these
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows - no-vol summer, but for how long; BoJ hike talk continues
August 14, 2026 7:03 AM UTC
Low vol summer, extreme lows may be suggestive of more noise ahead, eventually
Further sources talk of BoJ mulling Sep and faster
UK byelection finishes with Reform winning locally, but losing nationally