North American Summary and Highlights 27 Feb

February 27, 2026 8:44 PM UTC

Overview - Despite a strong US PPI, the USD was mostly weaker, with negative risk appetite sending equities and UST yields lower. 

Preview: Due March 13 - Canada February Employment - Employment and Labor force due for a rebound in Ontario

February 27, 2026 8:20 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 50k in February, more than fully reversing a 24.8k decline in January to keep trend modestly positive. However we expect an even stronger rebound in the labor force from a decline in January to lift the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.5%, while remaining

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Weaker and not only on weather

February 27, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect January housing starts to fall by 6.0% to 1.32m to follow a 6.0% December increase while permits fall by 5.2% to 1.38m to follow a 4.8% December increase. Underlying slowing in demand and bad weather are both likely to contribute to the decline, with the latter impacting starts more than p

Preview: Due March 10 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Extending a sharp January decline

February 27, 2026 5:16 PM UTC

We expect February existing home sales to fall by 0.8% to extend a sharp 8.4% January decline, to a level of 3.88m, which would be the lowest since October 2010. This would follow a 0.8% decline in January pending home sales, which extended a sharp 7.4% December decline. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Consolidating - daily studies improving

February 27, 2026 5:14 PM UTC

An extended cautious tone

Chart USD/CAD Update: Lower in CAD-driven trade

February 27, 2026 5:01 PM UTC

Choppy trade failed to make headway beyond resistance at congestion around 1.3700 and the 1.3725 weekly high of 6 February

Preview: Due March 2 - U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - Correcting lower but still positive

February 27, 2026 4:00 PM UTC

We expect February’s ISM manufacturing index to correct lower to 50.5 from January’s sharply improved 52.6, though this would still deliver a second straight positive reading to follow ten straight negatives.

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, March 2nd-6th

February 27, 2026 4:00 PM UTC

U.S. February ADP Employment to pick up 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Not as strong as January
And Other U.S. Data 
ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating

February 27, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at 0.7100

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure

February 27, 2026 2:41 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 156.00

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

U.S. January PPI - Still strong at the start of 2026

February 27, 2026 1:50 PM UTC

January PPI has made a strong start to 2026, with a stronger than expected 0.5% increase overall and an even stronger 0.8% increase ex food and energy, both following December gains that were almost as strong. Ex food energy and trade the picture is less alarming, up 0.3% for a third straight month,