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August 19, 2026
FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important
August 19, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w
FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important
August 19, 2026 6:56 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w
USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Dollar breaks lower with yields after Treasury backstopping signal
August 19, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
Dollar breaks lower as Treasury increases long end buyback ops
Drives long end yields down, reverses the week's gains, and viewed as backstopping reassurance
Dollar reaction both driven by yields but also the 'bad look'
Weekly Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for further gains
August 19, 2026 11:32 AM UTC
Extended consolidation above congestion support at 1.1500 is giving way to fresh gains,
with prices currently pressuring strong resistance at the 1.1615 Fibonacci retracement.
Weekly stochastics continue to rise and the weekly Tension Indicator is also positive, suggesting an improvement in sentiment
Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze
August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ
EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged
August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d