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May 18, 2026

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 19th
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 3:29 PM UTC

Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur

Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - A marginal upward revision
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 3:14 PM UTC

We expect a preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.1%, a marginal upward revision from the advance estimate of 2.0%.

U.S. May NAHB Homebuilders Index - Still little direction in trend
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 has seen a stronger than expected correction from April’s dip to 34, but remains slightly below March’s index of 38 if level with those of January and February.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended to 0.7120~, where rising intraday studies are prompting a bounce towards resistance at 0.7200

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 159.00 - daily studies rising
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 159.00 is giving way to a minor pullback

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.6000 has reached 1.59770~

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, May 18th-22nd
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 9:08 AM UTC

Breather on initial move but dollar squeeze could continue near-term
Popular trades forced into some profit-taking
Stretched risk trades face potential increased volatility

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating gains
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached 0.7875

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating gains
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have meeting selling interest around 99.40

Chart EUR/USD Update: Short-term consolidation
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:46 AM UTC

Anticipated losses are meeting short-covering just above congestion support at 1.1600

Psychology for major markets May 18
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:35 AM UTC

Government Yields Surge Stalled

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

May 18, 2026 7:34 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached congestion support at 1.3300

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

AUD/USD flows: Broader Sentiment Sour
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 4:52 AM UTC

Broader Sentiment Sour

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 18th-22nd
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 4:00 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze could continue near-term
Popular trades forced into some profit-taking
Stretched risk trades face potential increased volatility

USD/JPY flows: JGB Yields Jump Further
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 2:29 AM UTC

Fiscal Fear Drive Yields Higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, 1.3300 at risk
Freemium Article

May 18, 2026 1:45 AM UTC

Prices remain under pressure and see the 1.3300 level now within reach

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:33 AM UTC

Weak start see prices extending Friday's break of strong support at 1.1655 and 1.1640 to reach towards 1.1600 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 12:58 AM UTC

Extending strong gains last week through the 157.50/158.00 resistance to approach the 159.00 level

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 12:42 AM UTC

Prices remain under pressure to extend sharp losses last week following break of the .5930 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 12:23 AM UTC

Weak start see prices extending the Friday's break of the .7200 level to reach the support at .7135/.7100 congestion and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement