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May 28, 2026
SARB Hikes Policy Rate to 7.0% Amid Rising Geopolitical and Inflation Risks
May 28, 2026 4:59 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened on May 28, and announced that it hiked the key rate by 25 bps to 7.0%. This decision was driven by mounting upside risks to price stability, most notably the conflict in Iran, a volatile rand, and rising headline
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 28, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
U.S. April New Home Sales - A below trend month
May 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC
April new home sales with a 6.2% decline to 622k are on the weak side of trend which is showing signs of losing momentum, if not dramatically yet. That May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index picked up from a weak April cautions against reading too much into this data.
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable
May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.
ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?
May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC
The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11. As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b
USD flows: Ruling reminds of midterm election risk after the summer
May 28, 2026 11:12 AM UTC
Judge ruling a small reminder of disruption risks into midterms
Historic tendency for drawdowns may be a blunt tool given unique current dynamics
But it still reminds that this could be a disruption for equities, and the dollar one way or another