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April 07, 2026
Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued
April 7, 2026 6:15 PM UTC
We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.
Preview: Due April 20 - Canada March CPI - Higher on energy but BoC core rates seen close to stable
April 7, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.8% yr/yr from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest since May 2024. We expect ex food and energy CPI to also pick up, to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.0%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to be close to stable, still slightly above the 2.0% targe
New York Fed survey shows U.S. inflation expectations higher in March, even on a 5-year view
April 7, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations shows expectations have been lifted by the surge in energy prices, most obviously at the 1-year level, but with impacts visible at the 3-year and even 5-year levels.
U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Underlying trend remains positive
April 7, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
February durable goods orders are in line with expectations overall with a 1.4% decline led by the volatile aircraft sector correcting from recent strength, but a slightly stronger than expected ex transport increase of 0.8% maintaining a positive trend, indicating a positive business investment pic
Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March
April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla
2yr and The Iran War
April 7, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· 2yr yields can edge lower from current less elevated levels, as DM central banks continue to try to calm fears of near-term rate hikes outside of the BOJ/RBA. However, the key swing factor remains the length of the Iran war, as that will determine the trajectory of energy prices in