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February 04, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm
February 4, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.
Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
Preview: Due February 11 (revised date) - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 4, 2026 5:15 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.
U.S. January ADP Employment - A weaker month which may underperform payrolls
February 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
January’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 22k falls short of expectations. We still see scope for non-farm payrolls to outperform the ADP data given very low initial claims and positive seasonal adjustments, though a recent tendency for ADP data to underperform payrolls is no long
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 4, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates
February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
· Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of
EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Less Resilient as Core Hits Cycle-Low
February 4, 2026 11:19 AM UTC
Having been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% until November but after a fall to 1.9% in December headline HICP inflation dropped to 1.7% in the flash January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome. The drop came in spite of higher food inflation
FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 4th
February 4, 2026 10:18 AM UTC
NZ Labor Market Data Unlikely to Sway RBNZ
U.S. January ADP Employment To slow, and underperform payrolls
A partial correction from December's bounce in ISM Services
EZ HICP Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 4th
February 4, 2026 5:08 AM UTC
NZ Labor Market Data Unlikely to Sway RBNZ
U.S. January ADP Employment To slow, and underperform payrolls
A partial correction from December's bounce in ISM Services
EZ HICP Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further
February 03, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 3, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. November and December New Home Sales - Improvement in trend to continue
February 3, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
November and December new home sales data will be released on February 20. We expect moderate continuations of a recent improvement in trend, with November rising by 1.1% to 745k and December rising by 1.3% to 755k. This would be the highest level since February 2022.