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January 13, 2026
India CPI Review: December CPI Signals End of Disinflation Cycle
January 13, 2026 8:50 AM UTC
December’s CPI print reinforces that the inflation trough is behind us. While headline inflation remains below target, a sharp rebound in core driven by gold and jewellery could limit the RBI’s room for manoeuvre in early 2026. With a new CPI series incoming, the next few months will test the cr
JPY flows: New JPY lows as market continues to trade election expectations
January 13, 2026 7:56 AM UTC
The JPY has hit a new all time low against the EUR and new one year low against the USD as markets price in more fiscal easing. The rationale for the JPY decline is weak, but the momentum is strong. Intervention looks necessary to halt the decline.
January 12, 2026
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. September and October New Home Sales - August overstated, but trend poised to improve
January 12, 2026 4:31 PM UTC
Delayed September and October new home sales data will be released on January 13. August data was surprisingly strong, up 20.5% to 800k, and despite signs of improvement in the housing sector since then, we expect September to be softer at 700k, before a bounce to 750k in October.
Preview: Due January 19 - Canada December CPI - Slower even with upward tax distortion
January 12, 2026 4:14 PM UTC
We expect December’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr (2.11% before rounding) from 2.2% in both October and November, with each of the three Bank of Canada core rates slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, leaving the average core rate at its slowest pace since March.
Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture
January 12, 2026 1:22 PM UTC
We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend
Turkiye MPC Preview: Easing Cycle Will Continue on January 22
January 12, 2026 1:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 36.5%-37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 22 supported by continued deceleration trend in inflation in December and relative TRY stability. CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adj