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September 01, 2026

Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.

EUR/USD flows: HICP up, ECB ready, details nuanced. Blog says 'its all energy' so be measured
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

HICP as expected, leaves ECB follow up in Sep 100% priced in
Details show all overshoot currently all in energy/processed food
An ECB Blog today (note to the hawks?), gives structural analysis that all energy supply side driven, unlike pandemic, and so requires measured response

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

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ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 1-4
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 9:09 AM UTC

Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and G20 re

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - $ longs cut back before Warsh
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Latest IMM data showed dollar longs cut back across most pairs, including CAD, CHF, GBP...
JPY a slight exception, though back to only slightly above average shorts
All prior to Warsh's hawkish pivot, and mkt remains short CAD overall into trade spat, long dollar overall

Psychology for major markets Sep 1
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 8:49 AM UTC

Oil Steadily Higher

Chart USD/CHF Update: Pushing higher in USD- and CHF-driven trade
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 8:39 AM UTC

Sharp gains have reached congestion resistance at 0.8100

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Choppy trade - studies turning higher
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 99.50 has been pushed back from 99.71

Chart EUR/USD Update: Poised for further losses
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 7:46 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion around 1.1600 has extended to 1.1578

Chart GBP/USD Update: Reached the 1.3525 Fibonacci retracement - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

September 1, 2026 7:27 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at the 1.3525 Fibonacci retracement

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Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: Yields at the highs; BoE (and GBP?) the laggard?
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 6:55 AM UTC

Distillates remain pressured following the fresh Strait exchanges
Yields at the highs, JGBs at 30yr highs, on the ongoing fiscal, monetary, inflation and premia mix
BoJ, ECB and Fed all odds-on to hike in Sep, BoE the standout - could leave GBP the laggard near-term

AUD/USD flows: No Easy Day for The Strait
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 5:21 AM UTC

Trump vow to hit Iran hard in response and reports of a Saudi VLCC halted after being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 1-4
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 3:54 AM UTC

Is the Fed resigning itself to tightening? Seems so...
While offered a dollar fillip, ECB is also looking determined and some hawks there are looking for more and faster
BoE is currently looking the laggard and worth monitoring whether GBP starts to fall down the pack
BoJ also under pressure and Ueda m

USD/JPY flows: Waiting for next cue
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 3:04 AM UTC

USD/JPY Stay Below 160

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
Freemium Article

September 1, 2026 2:07 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.3425 low as prices consolidate losses from the 1.3675, August high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating at 1.1575 support, room for lower later
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 1:47 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.1575 support as prices consolidate recent losses from the 1.1710 high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in range from 160.20 high
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 1:00 AM UTC

Settled back in range from the 160.20 August high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies and consolidate at the 159.50 congestion

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 12:44 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the .5900 support as prices consolidate losses from the .5988 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating above .7150 support
Paying Article

September 1, 2026 12:30 AM UTC

Bounce from the .7150 support see prices retracing losses from the .7208 high and unwinding oversold intraday studies

August 31, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 31 August
Freemium Article

August 31, 2026 7:51 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw a modest correction from its sharp Friday spike, led by EUR/USD. 

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
Paying Article

August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.

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Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
Paying Article

August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.

Preview: Due September 14 - Canada August CPI - Slightly firmer but with BoC core rates steady
Paying Article

August 31, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian CPI to edge higher to 3.1% yr/yr from 3.0%, extending the gain from June’s 2.8% but remaining below May’s 3.2%. We also expect a firmer ex food and energy pace at 2.1% from 1.9%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to remain at July’s pace. 

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