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October 09, 2026
AI and The U.S. Economy
October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC
· The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households). If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through
October 08, 2026
USD/JPY flows - Respectable 30-year auction, Warsh to speak next week
October 8, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
Today’s 30-year auction was not as impressive as the 10-year auction yesterday, but showed respectable demand keeping UST yields well off earlier highs, and that is weighing on the USD, USD/JPY in particular.
Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline
October 8, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.
ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike
October 8, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point
ECB Minutes Showed Unanimous Support for September’s hike
October 8, 2026 12:46 PM UTC
Minutes to the September meeting at which the deposit rate was increased by 25bps to 2.75% was backed by all members of the committee. The next meeting takes place in October 29th and it’s unlikely that the macro picture will have changed much in the next three weeks. One obvious discussion point
US Initial Claims remain very low but not a clear signal for October's payroll
October 8, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Initial claims at 197k remain very low, down by 2k from 199k with last week’s number revised from 197k. Continued claims saw a modest upward correction of 17k, the first increase in five weeks, to 1.716k with last week revised to 1.699k from 1.701k.
