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May 01, 2026

USD/JPY flows: Soft Tokyo CPI Reverse Partial Intervention Effort
Paying Article

May 1, 2026 1:15 AM UTC

Japan head intervention official won't comment on FX or oil futures intervention
All three item of Tokyo CPI below target

April 30, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 30 Apr
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 7:48 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer, most notably USD/JPY with the BoJ seen behind the move, though oil coming off its highs saw the USD slipping elsewhere too. 

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Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Chart USD/MXN Update: Strong resistance up to 17.6450
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a fresh push higher

Chart USD/CAD Update: Under pressure in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a pullback in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 1st
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Tokyo CPI Should Remain Below 2%
USD/JPY Threatens Further Break
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Highest composite and prices paid since 2022

Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.

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Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo

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ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

Canada February GDP - Q1 looking in line with BoC forecast
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 2:00 PM UTC

February Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase was as predicted with January’s report with January revised at 0.1%. The preliminary estimate fir March is unchanged. This implies a 1.7% annualized increase in Q1, similar to a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Range trade - daily studies leaning lower
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.7100 has given way to a bounce

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U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im

EUR/USD flows: EUR drifts lower initially after ECB
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

EUR is off initially, as the introductory statement was less hawkish than feared.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Sharp fall from fresh year highs in both USD- and JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have posted a fresh year high around 160.70, before falling sharply in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

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BoE Review: MPC Playing Its Cards Safely (For Now)?
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC last month and the same decision was both expected and delivered this time around but with only token fresh dissent, with Chief Economist Pill wanting an immediate hike from the current 3.75%.  But splits were more evident in the individual MPC

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BOE Not More Hawkish
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

No initial reaction from GBP to the BOE statement and minutes. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

Still little change

Psychology for major markets Apr 30
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

Waiting for Central Banks

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Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 30th
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

BoE Divided Again But Unmoved
Real Economy Buckling Already for ECB 
Government Spending to lead bounce for U.S. Q1 GDP 
U.S. March Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for a limited push higher
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 8:25 AM UTC

The anticipated retest above congestion resistance at 0.7900 has been pushed back from 0.7925~

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 8:03 AM UTC

The anticipated test of strong resistance within the 99.00/18 range has met selling interest at 99.10

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for lower
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have tested below the 1.1670 weekly low of 23 April

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower
Freemium Article

April 30, 2026 7:38 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3500 has given way to a drift lower to support at 1.3450