Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Two straight subdued months after a strong April

July 2, 2026 3:51 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged June industrial production outcome with a marginal 0.1% increase in manufacturing. This will be a second straight subdued month but still leaving a healthy Q2 given a strong increase in April.

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing

July 2, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 3

July 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Quiet Calendar Sees Focus Back at Middle Easy
DXY Further consolidation
USD/JPY and the Silent Interventions

U.S. Fed's Daly - Favors a cautious approach

July 2, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

Fed's Daly appears to favor steady policy for now while major developments, including the spread of AI, are considered.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. June Employment - Charts and table

July 2, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

Payrolls trending around 100k per month, which is stronger than the labor force trend.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

Psychology for major markets July 2

July 2, 2026 10:17 AM UTC

USD/JPY self-policing ahead of holiday, long liquidation

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 2

July 2, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Payrolls in focus. Probably needs a 100k+/- surprise to prompt excitement
Friday's US holiday does indeed leave mkt wary of Japan intervention, and prompts early covering
EUR/GBP also does break key support, stretching sterling short covering

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

USD/JPY flows: Silent Intervention Soon?

July 2, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

Reuter cited sources that Japanese officials are moving away from telegraphing intervention risk and toward unsignalled action designed to squeeze speculative yen short positions

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jul 2

July 2, 2026 3:56 AM UTC

Payrolls in focus. Probably needs a 100k+/- surprise to prompt excitement
Friday's US holiday may leave mkt wary of Japan intervention, prompt some early covering
EUR/GBP still sitting on key support, risk of break remains

AUD/USD flows: Poor May Trade Data

July 2, 2026 2:17 AM UTC

Australian May Trade Balance Miss
U.S., Iran end Doha talks with no breakthrough

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending June gains

July 2, 2026 2:04 AM UTC

Break above 1.3250 see prices extending gains from the 1.3140 June current year low

Chart EUR/USD Update: Settled back in consolidation

July 2, 2026 1:53 AM UTC

Turned lower following failure to sustain break above the 1.1400/10 resistance with gains checked at the 1.1436 high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating

July 2, 2026 1:06 AM UTC

Consolidating break to fresh high at 162.84 as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5680/.5700 resistance

July 2, 2026 12:42 AM UTC

Little change, as prices settled back in range from test of strong resistance at the .5680/.5700 area