View:
March 04, 2026
March 03, 2026
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 3, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.
Preview: Due March 4 - U.S. February ADP Employment - To pick up after underperforming payrolls in January
March 3, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
We expect a 60k increase in February’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a significant pick up from January’s 22k, which dramatically underperformed a 172k increase in January’s private sector non-farm payroll.
Inflation Edged Up to 31.5% y/y in February as Monthly Pressures Persist
March 3, 2026 11:56 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced February inflation figures on March 3. After hitting 30.7% annually in January, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 31.5% in February due to rising food, transportation and housing prices. Our average inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 2
EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return
March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC
Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next. Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%
2025 Q4 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
March 3, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the fourth quarter
China: Yuan Appreciation; U.S. 301 Threat and 4.5-5.0% GDP Growth for 2026?
March 3, 2026 6:35 AM UTC
• The Yuan has continued to appreciate with no resistance from China authorities. Part of this is a willingness to allow a modest Yuan appreciation in the face of the huge China trade surplus and pressure from U.S./Europe/IMF and others over an undervalued Yuan, but appreciation is also des