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October 29, 2026
Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
October 29, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Slower but with yr/yr growth stable
October 29, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slower than two preceding quarters at 0.9% but leaving yr/yr growth stable at 3.4% for a third straight quarter.
EUR/USD flows - tests the big figure out of dovish additions
October 29, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
ECB statement adds a few dovish provisos, as per recent tone shifts, looking to cement a more cautious view
Suggests while energy remains a concern, starting to weigh up pace and extent of tightening and need to judge its impact
Dec continuation probabilities easing
U.S. Q3 GDP strong outside net exports
October 29, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest US data, but it is generally healthy, with Q3 GDP slightly stronger than expected at 3.4%, with the details strong outside net exports. September personal income rose by 0.2% with spending up by 0.5%, both slightly slower than expected. Core PCE prices rose
U.S. Q3 GDP strong outside net exports
October 29, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest US data, but it is generally healthy, with Q3 GDP slightly stronger than expected at 3.4%, with the details strong outside net exports. September personal income rose by 0.2% with spending up by 0.5%, both slightly slower than expected. Core PCE prices rose
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 29
October 29, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Oct 29
October 29, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC
October 28, 2026
FOMC - Pause, but no clear dovish signals
October 28, 2026 7:41 PM UTC
The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0% as expected but still appears to be on track for a December tightening. The Fed stated accumulation of more information will help the Fed determine the appropriate stance to return inflation to the 2% target. We suspect a slowing economy and stabilizing inf