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July 14, 2026
Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?
July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC
· Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal. This is a 60% probability scenar
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 8:50 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled or too relaxed, time will tell; arm-wrestle and entrenching expensive abnormality can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot, hawkish comments fuel further
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with U
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 4:56 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony
July 13, 2026
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 14
July 13, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony
Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?
July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC
· The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and
Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields
July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· 10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation). 10yr nominal yields could
