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July 04, 2025
July 03, 2025
Preview: Due July 18 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to continue falling
July 3, 2025 6:07 PM UTC
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
U.S. June ISM Services - Hit from tariffs shows signs of fading
July 3, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
June’s ISM services index of 50.8 from 49.9 has rebounded above neutral after falling to 49.9 in May but is still quite subdued. Detail shows bounces from weakness in May in business activity and new orders but slippage in employment and delivery times restrained the composite.
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte
June ECB Council Meeting Account Review: Divides Continue if Not Widen
July 3, 2025 12:24 PM UTC
The account of the June 3-5 Council meeting just about left the door open for a move at the July 24 policy verdict given the array of news (probably negative particularly regarding tariffs but also bank lending) due beforehand. But the account adds to the impression we has initially that a pause
U.S. Assets and Valuation
July 3, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
The U.S. equity market has returned to be clearly overvalued on equity and equity-bond valuations measures and is vulnerable to a new correction in H2 on any moderate bad news (e.g. further economic slowing and corporate earnings downgrades). In contrast, U.S. Treasuries are at broadly fai
UK GDP Preview (Jul 11): Another Large Downside Surprise?
July 3, 2025 9:12 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But we see that 0.3% m/m drop being repeated in the looming May numbers (Figure 1), thereby adding to a gloomier economic backdrop most recently highlighted by growing signs