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May 14, 2026

North American Summary and Highlights 14 May
Freemium Article

May 14, 2026 7:38 PM UTC

Overview - The USD made some gains in North America while GBP slipped on political risk. 

Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 4:17 PM UTC

We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Pushing higher
Freemium Article

May 14, 2026 4:01 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.3740 is giving way to consolidation

USD/JPY, EUR/USD, flows: some focus on the Strait; dollar does take out some levels
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 3:56 PM UTC

Some focus on movement in the Strait, equities and European bonds firmer, though not getting carried away
Dollar does make its mini break firmer, threatened over the last few days

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Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 15th
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Geopolitical Picture Determines DXY Direction
U.S. April Industrial Production Restoring an improvement in trend
USD/JPY Higher to approach 158.00 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Edging lower in range
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath the current year high around the 0.7280~ high of June 2022

Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Industrial Production - Restoring an improvement in trend
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in April industrial production with a matching increase in manufacturing, restoring signs of an improvement in trend in early 2026 after slippage in March. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance at 158.00

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U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p

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UK Politics – A Laboured Labour Election Ahead?
Freemium Article

May 14, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

It is somewhat ironic that as markets (particularly gilts) fret over a shift to the left causing less fiscal prudency, it is actually the centre of the Labour party that is fermenting the most uncertainty.  (Now Ex) Secretary Streeting has yet to make a formal bid to challenge PM Starmer for the le

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Streeting resignation no surprise, retail sales resilient
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Streeting resigns, hopes Starmer falls on his sword
Retail sales resilient but around expectation
Mkt still struggling for traction

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CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 10:43 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.6035 has given way to a minor drift higher to 1.6055

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 14th
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 9:15 AM UTC

US retail sales to underscore comparative US resilience
Dollar juggles macro divergence meets reaction function divergence?
UK waits to see if PM challenge unfolds and how the machinations play out for likely winner

Chart USD/CHF Update: Drifting higher
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 8:11 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around 0.7825/30

Psychology for major markets May 14
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 7:58 AM UTC

Quiet Thursday

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - daily studies rising
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 7:51 AM UTC

Little change, as quite trade extends pressure on congestion resistance at 98.50

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 7:42 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support is giving way to consolidation

Chart GBP/USD Update: Cautious trade - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

May 14, 2026 7:29 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/positive intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

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UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside.  Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Better Q1 GDP old news, more leadership positioning
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Rayner announces HMRC 'all clear' ready to enter the fray, still waiting on the kick off
Mar GDP better end to UK Q1 but Q2 seen flagging
Risk rally and key US yields levels provide the broader backdrop

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 May
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 5:18 AM UTC

Xi is meeting with Trump

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 14th
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 4:18 AM UTC

US retail sales to underscore comparative US resilience
Dollar juggles macro divergence meets reaction function divergence?
UK waits to see if PM challenge unfolds and how the machinations play out for likely winner

USD/JPY flows: Xi-Trump Met
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 4:16 AM UTC

Xi is meeting with Trump