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January 19, 2026
ECB Steady Signals, But
January 19, 2026 8:55 AM UTC
• We remain of the view that financial conditions and lending rates are worse than the current ECB depo rate level suggest and means that 2026 EZ growth does not really pick-up. Combined with a mild undershoot in inflation, this can build the case for the ECB to deliver two 25bps cuts.
January 18, 2026
January 16, 2026
Russia’s Inflation Decelerated Sharply in December but Risks Remain
January 16, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% y/y in November, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in December and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central
Preview: Due January 26 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend positive
January 16, 2026 4:23 PM UTC
We expect November durable goods orders to increase by 4.5%, led by a strong rise in aircraft as implied by Boeing data, though we expect ex transport orders to show a positive trend persisting with a rise of 0.6%.
U.S. January NAHB Homebuilders Index - Revival losing momentum
January 16, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
January’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 from 39 has seen a correction after three straight gains. The gains in Q4 appear to have been supported by Fed easing. If the Fed pauses in Q1, the housing sector revival may lose momentum too.
U.S. Decmember Industrial Production - Business equipment leading, autos weak
January 16, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
December industrial production is stronger than expected with a 0.4% increase with November revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%, though October was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1%. Manufacturing rose by 0.2%, following an upwardly revised 0.3% in November, but has still not fully erased a downwardly revis