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October 29, 2026
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire
EZ Q3 GDP to Show Ongoing Resilience
October 29, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
GDP is expected to grow 0.2% q/q in Q3 following a large quarterly gain of 0.6% in Q2, a figure that had been boosted by Ireland’s significant expansion of 10.2% q/q - driven largely by a surge in multinational-dominated sectors, led by Information & Communication and high-value industry. Once Ire
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
October 29, 2026 4:18 PM UTC
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
ECB Review: ECB Stays Put But December Hike Likely
October 29, 2026 3:28 PM UTC
As expected, the ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% but President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference largely paved the way for a 25bp hike in December, unless it is derailed by a further deterioration in financing conditions and a sharp worsening of the growth outlook. President
ECB Review: ECB Stays Put But December Hike Likely
October 29, 2026 3:27 PM UTC
As expected, the ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% but President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference largely paved the way for a 25bp hike in December, unless it is derailed by a further deterioration in financing conditions and a sharp worsening of the growth outlook. President
Preview: Due November 2 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Stable and positive
October 29, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
There does not appear to be any reason to expect much change in October’s ISM manufacturing index. We expect no change from September’s 54.5, which was only marginally changed from 54.6 in August. The data will continue to imply healthy manufacturing expansion, fueled by AI.
Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
October 29, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
Preview: Due October 30 - U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index - Slower but with yr/yr growth stable
October 29, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We look for the Q3 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slower than two preceding quarters at 0.9% but leaving yr/yr growth stable at 3.4% for a third straight quarter.
EUR/USD flows - tests the big figure out of dovish additions
October 29, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
ECB statement adds a few dovish provisos, as per recent tone shifts, looking to cement a more cautious view
Suggests while energy remains a concern, starting to weigh up pace and extent of tightening and need to judge its impact
Dec continuation probabilities easing
U.S. Q3 GDP strong outside net exports
October 29, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest US data, but it is generally healthy, with Q3 GDP slightly stronger than expected at 3.4%, with the details strong outside net exports. September personal income rose by 0.2% with spending up by 0.5%, both slightly slower than expected. Core PCE prices rose
U.S. Q3 GDP strong outside net exports
October 29, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
There are no major surprises in the latest US data, but it is generally healthy, with Q3 GDP slightly stronger than expected at 3.4%, with the details strong outside net exports. September personal income rose by 0.2% with spending up by 0.5%, both slightly slower than expected. Core PCE prices rose
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 29
October 29, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC