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July 14, 2026
FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias
July 14, 2026 5:14 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t
U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed
July 14, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Losing momentum
July 14, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, slower than Q1’s 0.9% but matching the Q4 outcome. This would see the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
July 14, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed
July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r
Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?
July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC
· Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal. This is a 60% probability scenar
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 8:50 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled or too relaxed, time will tell; arm-wrestle and entrenching expensive abnormality can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot, hawkish comments fuel further
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with U
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jul 14
July 14, 2026 4:56 AM UTC
Market summer-lulled, too relaxed, or ice-cool worldly - time will tell; arm-wrestle can't go on forever without consequences
Short and caught kiwi still a bright spot
Japan GPIF story also slumbers but one to watch
Main focus for the week arrives with US CPI and Warsh testimony