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November 21, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 21 Nov
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY moved lower in Europe, though the USD was little changed in North America, despite taking a hit as Fed’s Williams lifted hopes for a December easing. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 4:55 PM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 18.3000 has given way to a bounce

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending pressure on strong resistance
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance within the 1.4100 break level and the 1.4140 weekly high of 5-6 November

FX Weekly Strategy: November 24th-28th
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

Equities likely to drive FX
Some reasons to expect equity market stabilization and a USD dip
GBP risks on the UK Budget mostly on the downside
JPY still vulnerable to equity recovery short term, but upside preferred medium term

Canada September retail sales - A subdued Q3, October seen unchanged
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% decline were as the preliminary indicator released with August report had suggested, but ex auto sales exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.2%. Still, Q3 is negative in real terms, and October’s preliminary indicator is unchanged, suggesting a continued subdued

U.S. November S&P PMIs - Still healthy
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

November’s preliminary S and P PMIs both remain at healthy levels, manufacturing modestly slower at 51.9 from 52.5 but still comfortably positive, while services have unexpectedly seen a modest increase to 55.0 from 54.8. The composite increased to 54.8 from 54.6.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around support at the 0.6440 monthly low of 14 October

Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 2:34 PM UTC

Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited downside tests
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 2:24 PM UTC

Cautious trade beneath resistance at 158.00 is giving way to a JPY-driven drift lower

U.S. Fed's Collins - Jobs data mixed, undecided on December
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

Fed's Collins has not placed herself in either camp for December, and may follow Powell's lead.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Still sees room for a near term rate cut
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 1:11 PM UTC

Dovish remarks from Fed's Williams are significant, as he tends to be in the Fed mainstream. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Choppy trade - daily studies falling
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 11:58 AM UTC

Consolidation around congestion support at 1.6200 has given way to a sharp bounce towards congestion resistance at 1.6300

Psychology for major markets Nov 21
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 11:31 AM UTC

USD generally firm but JPY correcting recent losses

FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 21st
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 10:19 AM UTC

Weaker PMIs put downward pressure on the EUR and GBP
GBP risks already on the downside on retail sales
JPY recovering but gains still corrective

EUR, GBP flows: GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. September Employment Makes Case for a December easing looks a little weaker
And See Risk Asset Continue its Correction
These Week's Fed Speaker
Japan's Takaichi Outlines More Stimulus
UK CPI Down from Likely Peak

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for a minor test lower
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

The test above resistance at 0.8050 has been pushed back from 0.8075

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 9:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within strong resistance at congestion around 100.00 and the 100.26 monthly high of 1 August

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 8:46 AM UTC

Choppy trade above congestion support at 1.1500 is giving way to a drift higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift higher

...
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

GBP, AUD, JPY flows: GBP dips briefly on retail sales, risk negative tone
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 7:45 AM UTC

GBP dips briefly on weaker retail sales. Mild risk negative tone perissts. PMIs awaited

AUD/USD flows: Regional sentiment sunk
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Regional equities sunk

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 21st
Paying Article

November 21, 2025 4:11 AM UTC

PMIs may put downward pressure on the EUR
GBP risks on the downside on retail sales
JPY continues to make new lows despite verbal intervention…
…so that actual intervention risks are now very high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating
Freemium Article

November 21, 2025 1:47 AM UTC

Steadied at the 1.3038 low as prices consolidate losses from the 1.3215 high and unwind oversold intraday studies