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February 21, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 21st
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending choppy trade around the 1.2600 level
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 2:11 AM UTC

Extending choppy trade around the 1.2600 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Above 1.0800 see room to 1.0845/1.0900 area
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 1:44 AM UTC

 Consolidation below the 1.0800 level has given way to break higher to extend gains from the 1.0695 low 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 1:04 AM UTC

Extending consolidation around the 150.00 level 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6180/.6200 resistance
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 12:41 AM UTC

Clear break above the .6150 congestion has seen prices reaching towards the .6180/.6200 resistance. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6550, gains still limited
Paying Article

February 21, 2024 12:18 AM UTC

Settled back to consolidate at the .6550 congestion after failing to sustain break higher to approach the .6600 level

February 20, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

North American Summary and Highlights 20 Feb
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 8:45 PM UTC

Overview - The USD edged lower in quiet trade though advanced versus the CAD after a softer than expected Canadian CPI.  

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidation giving way to a pullback
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:23 PM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to a pullback

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q4 GDP - Revision seen marginally lower but still strong
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

We expect the second (preliminary) estimate for Q4 GDP to be revised only marginally lower to 3.2% from the unexpectedly strong first (advance) estimate of 3.3%. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 21st
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:16 PM UTC

Focus on FOMC minutes and speeches
Risks towards a more hawkish tilt
USD may recovery ground lost on Tuesday
GBP still vulnerable despite upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey

Chart USD/CAD Update: Cautious trade
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

Little change

Chart AUD/USD Update: Focus on 0.6600
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated push higher

Canada January CPI - Stronger than US CPI in late 2023, but softer in January
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 1:57 PM UTC

January’s Canadian CPI is significantly softer than expected, falling to 2.9% yr/yr from 3.4%, reaching its lowest since June 2023. In the second half of 2023 Canadian inflation was more stubbornly strong than falling US data, but this data for January combined with a stronger US CPI reduces the c

CAD flows: CAD weakens on soft CPI
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 1:53 PM UTC

Canadian January CPI weak across the board, suggesting USD/CAD has scope to 1.3550

Chart USD/JPY Update: Room for a corrective pullback
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 1:49 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 1:42 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion support at 104.00

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

 Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated push higher

Psychology for major markets Feb 20
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

Positive equity market tone keeping the USD and JPY on the back foot

...
ECB – What is it Actually Targeting as it Assesses Price Persistence?
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 10:24 AM UTC

The ECB remit is targeting an inflation rate of 2% over the medium term.  Implicit in this is that this is measured on a moving y/y basis.  However, there is nothing sacrosanct in this as the ECB is starting to be more open about using shorter-term measures, albeit more as indicators of price mome

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 9:58 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 151
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

...
China: 5yr LPR Cut But Not 1yr LPR
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

A larger than expected 25bps cut in the 5yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been delivered, but the 1yr LPR rate was unchanged given that PBOC reluctance to cut the 1yr Medium-Term Facility rate (MTF) this month.  The 5yr LPR rate is not a game changer for residential property, as bigger policy moves are

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating above 0.8800 - background studies positive
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 9:13 AM UTC

Still little change, as rising intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Feb 13th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

GBP net long positions stand out as extended. AUD and JPY significantly net short.

Chart EUR/USD Update: Cautious trade - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 8:36 AM UTC

Little change, as intraday studies turn down and prompt consolidation

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 20, 2024 8:21 AM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.2650 has not been seen

GBP flows: GBP downside risks on BoE testimony
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

BoE testimony may well be more dovish in view of recent developments, suggesting GBP downside risks

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 150
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

AUD/USD flows: The PBoC cut 5yr LPR by 25bp
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:47 AM UTC

The People’s Bank of China cut its 5-year Loan Prime Rate by 25bp
But its effect seems to be muted by the market

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 20th
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 4:00 AM UTC

Slower Canada CPI but modest progress on core rates
Japanese Import to Preview Domestic Demand
USD/JPY Should Be Capped by 150
Australia Wage To Follow Easing Labor Market

Chart GBP/USD Update: Still resisted on bounce attempt
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 2:23 AM UTC

 Still resisted in choppy trade from the 1.2518/35 lows to extend consolidation at the 1.2600 level

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating below the 1.0800 level
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 2:02 AM UTC

 Remains in consolidation below the 1.0800 level as prices unwind the stretched intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation around 150.00 level
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 1:10 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the 149.57 support to consolidate around the 150.00 level 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6150 resistance, scope for break
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 12:49 AM UTC

Extending gains to reach congestion at .6150

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6550 congestion, room for higher
Paying Article

February 20, 2024 12:23 AM UTC

Break above .6525 resistance has seen gains to reach the .6550 congestion 

February 19, 2024

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 19, 2024 5:03 PM UTC

Little change, as cautious USD- and CAD-trade keeps price action cautious 

N America Summary and Highlights 19 Feb
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 4:30 PM UTC

Monday FX trading was subdued, with the U.S. on holiday and the market searching for direction.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - limited downside tests
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

Still little change, as rising intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

Preview: Due February 20 - Canada January CPI - Slower but only modest progress on core rates
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

We expect January Canadian CPI to slip to 3.1% yr/yr, reversing a rise to 3.4% yr/yr in December. Monthly data is likely to look subdued after seasonal adjustment though progress in reducing the three Bank of Canada core rates will be modest. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - limited tests higher
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 12:23 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced at 0.8800 - daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

February 19, 2024 9:38 AM UTC

Little change, as oversold intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart AUD/USD Update: Room for a test of 0.6600
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Consolidation is giving way to the anticipated break higher

Chart USD/JPY Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath strong resistance at the 150.88 current year high of 13 February and congestion around 151.00 has given way to a move lower

Chart EUR/USD Update: Potential for a test above 1.0800
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 8:36 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated move higher

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

February 19, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Consolidation around 1.2600 has given way to the anticipated break

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 5:43 AM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

AUD/USD flows: Chinese equity market reopened higher
Paying Article

February 19, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

The Chinese equity market opened higher after observing the Lunar New Year 

February 18, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 18, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, February 19th-23rd
Paying Article

February 18, 2024 6:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD rangebound but risks on the downside
Scope for US yields to rise further…
…and for equities to start to suffer from the less dovish policy outlook
JPY to stay weak until equities turn

February 16, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 16 Feb
Freemium Article

February 16, 2024 8:30 PM UTC

Overview - Strong PPI data gave the USD a lift, but the bounce failed to hold and the USD ended little changed.