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June 16, 2026
FOMC Preview for June 17: Dropping the easing bias (update)
June 16, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias. The median dots are likely to get a little more hawkish with a hawkish skew in the detail, with inflation forecasts, including those for
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 16, 2026 2:33 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
June 16, 2026 1:53 PM UTC
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would
U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts plunge, elsewhere moves were modest
June 16, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
May housing starts are sharply weaker than expected, down 15.4% to 1.177m, the weakest since May 2020 during the pandemic. However the fall was largely due to a 40.2% plunge in the volatile multiples sector. Single starts fell by a modest 1.9%.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK/SEK flows: FX sleeping but oil is still moving
June 16, 2026 12:36 PM UTC
Pre-Fed intertia and as market digests two-way pull of deal impact
But oil is still active, extending the break lower and threatening bigger range shift
As such, mkt may later re-focus on ToT and oil trade narratives
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 16, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jun 16th
June 16, 2026 9:37 AM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ delivers the expected hike, later taper, and minor tweaked statement - little impact seen
RBA likewise largely on-message
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed, market tread water prior
China: Divided Economy
June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC
· Overall, growth remains unbalanced. Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still. However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption. While the stimu
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Jun 16th
June 16, 2026 5:05 AM UTC
Since Iran kicked off, gold holds on to the biggest remaining losses, SEK next
BoJ in focus, 25bp hike universally expected, attention on statement and bond program
RBA tone also to be scrutinised.
Broader dollar tone still waiting on the new era Fed