U.S. Fed's Logan wants modestly higher rates, Schmid also hawkish

July 16, 2026 9:06 PM UTC

Fed's Logan looks set to vote for a tightening this month, though we expect that will be a dissenting vote. Fed's Schmid is also sounding hawkish, but he does not have a vote this year. 

North American Summary and Highlights 16 July

July 16, 2026 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced supported by mostly positive data. 

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI

July 16, 2026 4:21 PM UTC

June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Jul 17

July 16, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Slate of U.S. Data
DXY Leaning lower in consolidation
Would Not be As Important As Middle East

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed

July 16, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing

July 16, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.

U.S. June Pending Home Sales and July NAHB Homebuilders' Index both weaker

July 16, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

The latest data suggests some weakness in the housing sector as rising inflation worries put upward pressure on mortgage rates, with slippage in June pending home sales and July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index.

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. July S&P PMIs - Manufacturing strong, marginal improvement in services

July 16, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

We expect gains in July’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 55.5 from 53.9, with a more moderate increase in services to 51.5 from 51.2.

USD Flows: Firm US data, albeit geopolitics ebb and flows playing to the swings

July 16, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Solid set of US data, if clearly very sensitive to the inputs from geopolitics month to month

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Two straight subdued months after a strong April

July 16, 2026 12:00 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged June industrial production outcome with a marginal 0.1% increase in manufacturing. This will be a second straight subdued month but still leaving a healthy Q2 given a strong increase in April.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Jul 16

July 16, 2026 8:56 AM UTC

Approaching Japan holiday, so (idle?) speculation might kick in again
Dollar was over-owned, leaks out when headlines quiet

Chart USD/CHF Update: Under pressure

July 16, 2026 7:33 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside following rejection from the .8150 current year high to reach strong support at .8040