People's Bank of China
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September 2, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
We see a 30% probability of a harder landing in China GDP growth in 2025, which we most likely be in the 3-4% region but could persist into 2026 (Figure 1). A large than projected slowdown in consumption would be a key concern, alongside persistently moderate negative deductions from residential
August 28, 2024 1:30 PM UTC
China consumption patterns are divergent; slowing and becoming more volatile at a sub sector level. Less certainty over new employment and wage growth, plus wealth worries over housing are some of the causes. We forecast GDP to slow in H2 and be 4.0% in 2025.
August 21, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Though China’s authorities have taken some action to help the residential construction sector, the negative drags from the huge excess completed housing and uncompleted projects continues to weigh directly on the construction/steel and cement sector and consumer confidence. Aggressive policy actio
August 15, 2024 6:40 AM UTC
Overall, the July data is consistent with our forecast of a weaker H2 and we still look for 4.7% GDP growth for 2024. The data is also consistent with our forecast of 4.0% in 2025 GDP growth. Consumption behavior could stall further and cause more of a drag than we anticipate and we now see a 30
July 23, 2024 8:15 AM UTC
Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle. This is one of the key reasons why we forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.
July 22, 2024 8:41 AM UTC
China 10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate and 1 and 5yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was sooner than expected, as a move had not been anticipated until the Fed cuts rates. However, this is not the start of a new aggressive policy phase, but rather a tactical move given the targeted nature of easing.
July 15, 2024 7:33 AM UTC
We are revising down our 2024 GDP forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, both due to the weaker than expected Q2 GDP figure but also the weak underlying momentum of consumption. Some further targeted policy measures are likely in the coming months, but will struggle to lift economic momentum.
July 10, 2024 7:27 AM UTC
China disinflation process is clear in the June CPI data, with excess production and soft consumer spending producing a lower than expected outcome. Combined with weak M2 money growth, parts of China economy remain weak and point to a softening of GDP growth in H2. However, policy action will li
July 2, 2024 8:10 AM UTC
The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy. However, they are unlikely to be game changers, such as a Yuan2-4trn program of buying most unsold homes or structural increase in the unemployment/health and pension safety nets to free
June 19, 2024 9:35 AM UTC
Public investment and industrial production in high tech and renewables are helping to support growth and should get the economy close to 5% in 2024. However, underneath the surface, consumption is slowing, private sector investment and employment growth is sluggish, and residential property inves
June 17, 2024 6:59 AM UTC
Overall the May data suggests that enough momentum exists for Q2 GDP to be above 5.0% Yr/Yr, which given the Q1 GDP figure means that the odds are good that the 2024 5.0% GDP target can be meet. However, we see a softer of H2 GDP and 4.0% GDP in 2025, given weak domestic demand is unlikely to chan
June 12, 2024 7:34 AM UTC
China disinflation is clear in the latest numbers for May, with core falling 0.2% on the month. Further stimulus will likely arrive in the form of monetary easing. While it is a close call, we look for a 10bps cut in the medium-term lending facility rate (MLF) from 2.50% on June 17.
June 3, 2024 9:19 AM UTC
China authorities appear to have the financial stability spill over from the property sector until control currently, through a combination of direct support for housing and forced mergers of weak banks (mainly rural so far). This game plan will likely be followed for the next few years. However,
May 15, 2024 9:55 AM UTC
While part of corporate debt is quasi government (SOE and LGFV’s) and China creditors can be pursued to rollover by the authorities for larger borrowers, households and part of the private sector are focused on the previous buildup of debt. With China authorities reluctant to aggressive ease fis
May 13, 2024 7:54 AM UTC
The latest China money supply and lending figures show that private household and business lending is very subdued. More need to be done to boost credit demand as well as credit supply. However, the authorities desires to avoid too much Yuan weakness will likely mean that the next move is a 25bp
May 8, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
China equities can see a tactical bounce of 5-10% in the coming months. Cheap valuations and underweight global fund positions means that the scale of pessimism only has to get less bad on the economy and China authorities attitude towards businesses. While we see a tactical opportunity, we do
May 3, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
While U.S. economic developments, plus Fed policy prospects, will be important in terms of EM currency developments, domestic politics and fundamentals will also be decisive. These can keep the South Africa Rand volatile in the remainder of 2024, given the risk of a coalition government and African
May 2, 2024 10:50 AM UTC
Politburo statement in late April suggests extra support for residential property. However, we see this as being incremental rather than any game changers and we still see residential investment remaining a negative drag on 2024 GDP growth.
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
March 20, 2024 11:00 AM UTC
China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means some of the old engines of growth are not firing. Some additional fiscal stimulus will likely
March 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC
The February monthly data shows unbalanced growth. Industrial production and public investment picked up, but retail sales slowed and residential property remains a negative drag on GDP. While H1 GDP growth will be ok, it will likely slow in H2 and we still stick to a forecast of 4.4% for 2024 a
March 15, 2024 8:51 AM UTC
Bottom Line: The PBOC decided not to cut the Medium-Term Facility (MTF) rate, but surprised by also withdrawing liquidity in what looks like a protest at the recent decline in government bond yields. A 10bps MTF cut should still arrive in Q2, but later rather than sooner.
March 11, 2024 8:29 AM UTC
Bottom Line: February China CPI surged to +0.7% v -0.8% Yr/Yr due to three factors. The late lunar New Year boosted CPI seasonally, while the good lunar New Year also boosted pork/food prices and travel prices. The bounce is unlikely to be sustained and we see a fall back to 0.3-0.4% Yr/Yr in Ma
March 5, 2024 9:43 AM UTC
Bottom Line: China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means the old engines of growth are not firing. Some additionally fiscal stimulus will
March 4, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Taiwan new speaker, Han Kuo Yu, has a willingness to open dialogue with China. This does not stop China likely undertaking large scale military exercises in the spring around Taiwan, as it still seeks to pressure the incoming DPP president. However, we see the new Taiwan speaker elect
February 28, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
Bottom Line: China authorities leave the impression that further policy stimulus will likely be measured rather than aggressive. We feel that they are not pessimistic enough on the medium-term hangover from the residential property sector and this is why we are downbeat on 2024 GDP growth and beyo
February 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC
Despite a still overvalued Yuan, China authorities are reluctant to accept too much Yuan weakness for fear of causing domestic capital outflows and discontent with China’s government. At some stage, if GDP growth surprises on the downside, China authorities could decide that a controlled Yuan decl
February 20, 2024 9:17 AM UTC
A larger than expected 25bps cut in the 5yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been delivered, but the 1yr LPR rate was unchanged given that PBOC reluctance to cut the 1yr Medium-Term Facility rate (MTF) this month. The 5yr LPR rate is not a game changer for residential property, as bigger policy moves are
February 13, 2024 10:34 AM UTC
Though economics would argue for a 4.5-5.0% growth target for 2024, politics will likely mean that a 5% growth target is chosen in March. With the residential property overhang, weak net exports with a shift of global supply chains and sluggish private sector business investment growth, this will
January 17, 2024 9:24 AM UTC
Quarterly GDP is interesting and came in at 1.0% after the 1.3% quarterly gain in Q3. The trend in quarterly GDP (Figure 1) is also not consistent with 5% growth and the Yr/Yr will dip in Q1 2024 when the large gain in Q1 2023 drops out (due to the end of zero COVID policies). We maintain the 4.
January 12, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
Figure 1: China RRR (%)Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
A senior PBOC official has hinted at an RRR cut on Tuesday (here), given the desire to sustain credit growth. Similar comments were evident last July before the RRR cut in September. We would argue that further monetary easing is l
January 5, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
The catch-up productivity argument would point towards 4-5% growth in China in the 2025-2030 period. However, we are concerned that the residential property downturn and rewiring of global supply chains will be persistent headwinds for China GDP growth in the coming years and that the adverse popu
December 27, 2023 1:23 PM UTC
Figure 1: Pct of USD in Allocated FX Reserves
Source: IMF COFER/Continuum Economics
The latest IMF COFER data (here) shows that the USD still remain the dominant currency among central banks, with the Euro in 2nd place at 19.6% followed by the Japanese Yen and British Pound. The Chinese Yuan i
December 15, 2023 10:06 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Policy Stimulus Insufficient to Stop Slowing
China is facing a number of headwinds that will make 5% growth difficult to achieve in 2024. Key issues include:
· Property construction downturn. China authorities have undertaken
December 15, 2023 7:48 AM UTC
Figure 1: China Retail Sales Yr/Yr (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
November data from China shows a mixed picture. Industrial production rose +0.9% on the month, while the Yr/Yr at 6.6% compared to expectations of 5.7% (the Yr/Yr is distorted upwards by the last phase of COVID lockd
November 28, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
On the chart, USD/CNH has turned up from the 7.1285 low to consolidate sharp losses from the November high. Consolidation around the 7.1500 level tracing out a bear flag and see risk for break of the 7.1285 low to further extend losses from the Sep high to retrace gains from the January low. Break w
November 22, 2023 12:56 PM UTC
The CNY recent rally against the USD is largely driven by the softer tone of the USD across the board. However, interest rate differentials will likely remain at current wides until Q3 2024 and will then only narrow slowly. Meanwhile, foreign investors continue to liquidate China assets on conce
November 15, 2023 8:51 AM UTC
Figure 1: China Economic Surprise Index
Source: Datastream/Citibank
October data from China shows a mixed picture. Yr/Yr Industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected at 4.6% and 7.6% respectively. However, on the month industrial production grew 0.4% and retail sales a m
November 13, 2023 8:15 AM UTC
Concerns about long-term growth in China into the 2nd half of the decade are increasing, which is a concern for global growth given China's contribution to global GDP over the past 20 years.
Figure 1: China GDP Growth Forecasts to 2030 (%)
Source: Continuum Economics
China's Long-Term Growth Problem
November 9, 2023 7:30 AM UTC
Figure 1: China Headline and Core CPI inflation
Source: Datastream
Pork prices helped to drag the headline inflation down, as excess pig production continues to be evident in the farming sector. Core CPI inflation at 0.6% remains a better indication of the underlying inflation momentum, which arg
October 30, 2023 8:18 AM UTC
With the Taiwan election in January expected to re-elect the anti-China DPP, and the U.S. focused on Ukraine and Middle East, how will the Taiwan situation develop before and after the election and in the coming years?
Figure 1: Taiwan Scenarios for the Next 5 Years
Source: Continuum Economics
Mo
October 25, 2023 10:50 AM UTC
Figure 1: China Primary and Overall Budget Deficit/GDP (%)
Source: IMF/Continuum Economics
The Yuan1trn increase in the 2023 budget deficit is to be channelled to increased local government spending on infrastructure including disaster reconstruction and prevention. Though officially the target is
October 18, 2023 7:18 AM UTC
Figure 1: China GDP Yr/Yr (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
The Q3 quarterly change at 1.3% is better than the 0.9% rise expected and keeps the Yr/Yr rate from falling too far (Figure 1). With Q4 2022 having been mixed, even a weak Q4 quarterly change should now ensure that the authorities
October 13, 2023 7:53 AM UTC
Figure 1: China Headline and Core CPI (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
Fiscal Policy Stimulus
The September headline CPI came in lower than expected at zero Yr/Yr, as food prices dragged on the index – food supplies were plentiful ahead of golden week. The core inflation rate remai
September 26, 2023 10:08 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Policy Stimulus Insufficient to Stop Slowing
Our GDP forecast looks for a slowing to 4.0% in 2024 from 4.8% in 2023 for a number of reasons.
Figure 1: Cumulative YTD Million Square Meters Residential Real Estate Development Versus Investment in Real Estate De
September 15, 2023 6:40 AM UTC
Figure 1: Residential Property Investment YTD (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
August Data Some Stability, But
The good news is that August retail sales (4.6% Yr/Yr v 3.0% expected) and industrial production (4.5% Yr/Yr v 3.9% expected) were better than expected and show stabilisation i
August 21, 2023 6:42 AM UTC
Figure 1: RRR for Big Banks (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
RRR Cut Next Step
Double disappointment on the LPR with a 10bps rather than 15bps cut on the 1 year LPR and no change for the 5yr rate. The latter has the market puzzled, given last week’s 15bps reduction in the PBOC medium-