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July 16, 2025 4:32 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on June 6, citing continued easing in inflationary pressures, including core inflation, we foresee that the rate will be further reduced to 19% on July 25 taking into account that inflation slowe
July 15, 2025 12:09 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held its key policy rate stable at 46% on June 19, we believe CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 150-250 bps during the MPC meeting scheduled for July 24 considering the deceleration trend in inflation in June beat forecasts and reinforced ex
July 11, 2025 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.4% YoY in June after hitting 9.9% YoY in May, partly due to favorable base impacts, recent RUB strengthening and falling oil prices. We think the recent tariffs hike for electricity, gas, heating and w
July 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After a 90-day reprieve, U.S. president Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would implement 30% additional tariffs against South Africa-origin products from August 1. Despite President Ramaphosa opposed what he calls the unilateral trade tariffs by the U.S., and emphasized that Sout
July 7, 2025 10:34 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu got arrested on March 23, political tension remains high in Turkiye, particularly after the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Adana mayor Zeydan Karalar, Antalya mayor Muhittin Bocek and Adiyaman mayor Abdurrahman Tutdere were detained on July 5 fo
July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte
July 3, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
The U.S. equity market has returned to be clearly overvalued on equity and equity-bond valuations measures and is vulnerable to a new correction in H2 on any moderate bad news (e.g. further economic slowing and corporate earnings downgrades). In contrast, U.S. Treasuries are at broadly fai
July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal
July 2, 2025 12:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA
July 2, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
We are concerned that DM central banks are underestimating the lagged impact of 2021-23 tightening and ongoing QT, which impacts the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Central banks need to consider cyclical and structural issues, but also need a more rounded view of the stance and implica
June 26, 2025 11:06 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Our baseline scenario (70%) is based on the war continuing after talks fail since president Putin insists on his peace terms. President Trump is reluctant to threaten or implement of secondary tariffs on Russia oil buyers, that would really pressure president Putin. The U.S. financing o
June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC
· President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot
June 24, 2025 8:15 AM UTC
Though the U.S. equity market has rebounded, we still scope for a fresh dip H2 2025 to 5500 on the S&P500 as hard data softens further to feed into weaker corporate earnings forecasts and CPI picks up and delays Fed easing. However, the AI story is still a positive, while share buybacks
June 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food prices, and global uncertainties. We see growth to be 1.2% and 1.7%
June 23, 2025 8:30 AM UTC
• We see the U.S. yield curve steepening in the next 6-18 months. 2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias in H2 2026. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields face a tug of war between lower short-dated y
June 20, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
In Q2 2025, eight OPEC+ countries pledged a faster oil supply hike, motivated by market share losses, internal frictions, and geopolitical shifts. However, actual output has fallen short due to overproduction offsets, domestic consumption, and capacity limits. Further gradual increases are expected,
June 19, 2025 7:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate unchanged at 46% during the MPC on June 19 despite inflation continues to ease. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved via a sustained decline in in
June 19, 2025 8:57 AM UTC
Although we thought the Norges Bank would not start to ease until its next (Aug) meeting, we think the surprise 25 bp policy rate cut (to 4.25%) announced today is very much warranted, as are the further cuts (Figure 1) being flagged in the updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR) – ie two more such m
June 19, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
The SNB would probably prefer to consolidate the effects of previous rate cuts, but the low inflation forecast and downside risk to inflation means that a cut to -0.25% is feasible at the September or December meetings. The SNB will also hope that the threat of negative rates restrains the CHF s
June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do
June 18, 2025 8:26 AM UTC
As widely expected, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by a further 25 bp to a new cycle low of 2.0%. Moreover, as we hinted at, the Board even then suggest that a further move is possible (Figure 1). Given that even with substantial paring back of its growth forecast in its updated Monetary Polic
June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi
June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i
June 11, 2025 9:23 AM UTC
A further 25 bp cut (to zero) in the SNB policy rate on Jun 19 now looks almost certain. Weak(er) business surveys suggest that the tariff threat is both tangible and growing and this is before key Swiss pharmaceutical exports come under fire. Meanwhile, there is the strong currency where FX int
June 10, 2025 1:49 PM UTC
It is very unlikely that the Norges Bank will do anything at this month’s Board meeting other than to suggest the easing cycle will start later in the year and that the policy rate will thus remain at 4.5% - for the time being. In fact, it will have to be more explicit about any such a timetable
June 10, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18. Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible. This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r
June 6, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite predictions were centered around no change, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut policy rate on June 6 for the first time after September 2022 citing easing in inflationary pressures, including core inflation. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary co
June 3, 2025 11:02 AM UTC
Bottom line: South African economy grew moderately by 0.1% QoQ and 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2025. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on June 3, despite growth in agriculture, transport and finance, a strain on the mining and manufacturing industri
June 3, 2025 8:21 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that the inflation softened to 35.4% y/y in April from 37.9% y/y in April. We think monetary tightening, fiscal measures and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure. Despite this, inflationary risks remain tilted to th
May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit
May 30, 2025 11:49 AM UTC
We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18. Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible. This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r
May 29, 2025 4:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the policy rate to 7.25% during the MPC on May 29 highlighting that annual inflation remained below SARB’s target range of 3%-6% hitting 2.8% YoY in April coupled with eased core inflation in April and a stronger Rand. We think the recent with
May 23, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 22, and kept its inflation forecast constant for 2025 at 24%. CBRT governor Karahan signalled to maintain a tight stance until a permanent decline in inflation is sustained and price stabili
May 21, 2025 1:10 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 2.8% YoY in April due to higher food prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely hold the rate constant at 7.5% during the next MPC scheduled on May 29 given plenty of upside risks to inflation including unpredict
May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy
May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab
May 14, 2025 9:21 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, we foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 2.8-2.9% in April, which will be announced on May 21. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, return of power cuts (loadshedding), and
May 12, 2025 5:24 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of the key rate decision on May 12, showing CBR’s views on economic developments. CBR highlighted in its report that “The current inflationary pressures eased in Q1, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pa
May 8, 2025 8:49 AM UTC
It was hardly a surprise that the Norges Bank again kept policy on hold when it gave its latest verdict as was the fact that it failed to be any more explicit about when the rate cut cycle may begin. Instead, while still suggesting rate cuts later this year, it cautions about premature easing. Thi
May 8, 2025 8:03 AM UTC
The very much expected stable policy decision at this Riksbank verdict was the second in succession but where the Board veered away from its previous assertion that that, with the policy rate now at 2.25%, this may be the end of the easing path. Instead, and amid the stronger currency and softer C
May 7, 2025 1:30 PM UTC
A further 25 bp cut (to zero) in the SNB policy rate on June 19 now looks almost certain. Weak(er) business surveys suggest that the tariff threat is both tangible and growing. Meanwhile, there is the strong currency where FX intervention on aby major scale could provoke US retaliation against a
May 6, 2025 3:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Taking into account that the 31% U.S. additional tariffs on South African goods could still come into effect despite a 90-day reprieve from the U.S. president Trump, the threat is still alive as South African economy will be negatively impacted by tariffs partly nullifying the African G
May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre
May 1, 2025 11:04 AM UTC
It does seem very likely that the Norges Bank will again keep policy on hold when it gives it next verdict on May 8, albeit with a risk that if it has access to what may be much friendlier CPI data officially due the day after, it could ease, or at least be more explicit about when the rate cut cycl
April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect
April 29, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
A very likely stable policy decision next month would be the second in succession and where the Riksbank has now underscored that, with the policy rate now at 2.25%, this may be the end of the easing path. But amid the stronger currency, with real activity signs having largely disappointed even be
April 28, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We have lowered a Russia-friendly peace deal following a cease-fire to 50% probability but have increased the alternative scenario of war continues to 50% probability in Ukraine as negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue slowly. In the former scenario, we envisage Russia will co
April 25, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the policy rate stable on April 25 for the fourth consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR indicated in its written statement that CBR will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target
April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar