South Africa: Coalition Under Pressure After President Ramaphosa Fires DA Deputy
Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA withdrew from National Dialogue, requested Ramaphosa to fire three ANC ministers due to corruption allegations and laid criminal charges against ANC’s education minister on July 1. The recent developments signal that the tension will likely increase in the upcoming weeks if no serious actions by Ramaphosa. We think this process will be a real test on coalition’s stability, and the GNU’s survival hinges on compromise.
After ANC and the main opposition DA agreed to form a GNU along with other smaller opposition parties last June, the coalition was tested multiple times due to major differences between ANC and the DA in terms of foreign policy, land reform, ANC’s black economic empowerment policies, education bill, the National Health Insurance (NHI) which threatened coalition’s stability.
The tension recently escalated after President Ramaphosa fired DA’s Deputy Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Andrew Whitfield on June 25 who the president’s office said had made an unauthorised trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the decision, the DA announced on June 28 that it withdrew from a National Dialogue, which was previously announced by President Ramaphosa to tackle a host of problems confronting the country.
In addition to withdrawal, DA laid criminal charges for corruption against ANC’s Higher Education Minister, Nobuhle Nkabane on July 1. The party has accused the minister of lying to Parliament regarding the appointment of individuals to the Sector Education and Training Authority (SETA) boards. After the formal criminal charges laid to public authorities, DA member of parliament Nodada told reporters on July 1 that “We’re taking action because the president of the country, the president of the ANC, refuses to act on corrupt ministers.”
DA also announced that it will not vote for the portfolio budgets of corruption-implicated three ministers from ANC until they are replaced by President Ramaphosa. (Note: According to sources, this will not disrupt the budget process overall because the DA will continue to support the Revenue Bill and the Appropriations Bill as a whole).
We think that the DA’s withdrawal decision from the National Dialogue along with the rejection of the ANC ministers' budgets have symbolic significance, but still signal that that the tension will likely increase in the upcoming weeks if no actions by Ramaphosa in line with DA’s requests. The blowout could be if DA announces it will consider leaving the GNU otherwise.
We think this process will be a real test for coalition’s stability while GNU’s survival hinges on compromise. It is hard to foresee whether the GNU will work smoothly until the next elections or it will fall apart sooner or later, but it is obvious that the country’s first coalition trial is not going so well.