EUR/CHF-Commentary

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November 19, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD quieter, crosses to dominate
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November 19, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Majors mostly consolidating. Verbal intervention from Japan helping cap USD/JPY but little USD momentum seen. Scope for action on crosses 

November 01, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls on weaker CPI
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November 1, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

CHF falls sharply as October CPI comes in below consensus, but declines unlikely to extend far ahead of the US election

October 02, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens firm on Middle East tension
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October 2, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Safe havens remainign strong as Middle East tension rises. Oil price move thus far is modest, but fears of escalation remain. JPY the best value of the safe havens.

September 27, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on softer PCE price data
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September 27, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

USD generally softer after PCE price index rises only 0.1% in August. AUD and JPY favoured

September 26, 2024

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: US data maintains positive risk sentiment
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September 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims and better core durable goods orders keep the USD and risky currencies on the front foot

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY weakness getting stretched
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September 26, 2024 11:46 AM UTC

JPY weakness has extended again today, but recent run of losses is getting overdone

CHF flows: SNB dovish but EUR/CHF dips initially
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September 26, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates as expected an indicates further easing likely with inflation forecatss cut. Initial EUR/CHF dip looks like a "sell on the news" reaction rather than a genuinely CHF positive take on the decision.

JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk sentiment improved o/n but NOK lags
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September 26, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

More Chinese equity gains on reports of Chinese injection of capital into banks. JPY weak, most risky currencies better, but NOK under pressure. CHF a focus on SNB meeting today

September 23, 2024

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
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September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
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September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 12, 2024

USD, JPY, AUD, CHF flows: Risk recovery overnight
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September 12, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

High yielders gain and safe havens dip on risk reocvery overnight, but JPY likely to be resilient

August 28, 2024

EUR, CHF, GBP flows: EUR offer, GBP and CHF staying firm, but...
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August 28, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks likely to hold clos to current levels. GBP and CHF gains may start to falter

August 27, 2024

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY steadier, GBP, CHF gains stretched
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August 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

JPY stabilising, CHF and GBP strength statign to look overdone

August 22, 2024

EUR flows: Bouncing as EZ numbers outperform Germany
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August 22, 2024 8:23 AM UTC

EUR bounces as EZ PMI comes in above expectations despite weaker German data

August 12, 2024

EUR, JPY, GBP, NOK flows: Mildly more risk positive tone
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August 12, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Asia trading sees modest gains in the riskier currencies with safe havens edging lower

August 09, 2024

NOK, AUD flows: NOK little changed after CPI, AUD firm
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August 9, 2024 6:27 AM UTC

NOK reverses initial post-CPI gain, but has upside scope. AUD firmer in better risk environment overnight, gains can extend

August 08, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF weaken after lower US claims data
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August 8, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

Correctve gains extend for the USD and other higher yielders

USD, JPY, GBP, CHF flows: JPY remains cheap, USD, CHF and GBP expensive
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August 8, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

The market is focused on which way risk sentiment will turn, but there is value in the FX market either way

August 07, 2024

JPY, EUR, CHF flows: JPY lower on Uchida comments
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August 7, 2024 7:01 AM UTC

BoJ deputy governor Uchida's comments indicating that the BoJ would not tighten in unstable markets has helped USD/JPY correct higher. More corrective pressure may be seen today, but underlying picture remains JPY positive 

August 06, 2024

USD, JPY, NOK, AUD flows: Mild risk recovery continues
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August 6, 2024 7:07 AM UTC

The risk reocvery ocntinued overnigth and the JPY has fallen back, but remains undervalued. CHF still has more downside scope, and high yielders could recover further

August 05, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery on ISM
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August 5, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

A better than expected ISM services index has helped to stabilise equities and risk sentiment in general, but FX markets still show extreme valuations

USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: Safe havens surge, risk currencies plunge
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August 5, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

The big risk unwind continued overnight, and safe haven currencies surged once again, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, while the commodity currencies suffered. From here much will depend on the US equity market peformance this afternoon. From a value perspective, JPY strength is justified,

August 02, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: Safe haven gains may be reaching near term limits
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August 2, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

JPY gains have been mostly a reversal of the May/June overshoot, but have been extended by the recent risk sell off. JPY crosses now approaching levels that are consistent with current risk premia. CHF strength on risk weakness likely to paude as EUR/CHF finds support near 0.94

August 01, 2024

CHF, JPY flows: CHF strength approaching limits
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August 1, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

CHF gains against the EUR reflect some weakening in risk sentiment but the JPY remains the preferred safe haven

July 26, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steadier markets as risk stabilises
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July 26, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Riskier currencies edging higher, JPY stable as risk stabilises and Japan Tokyo CPI comes in in line with expectations.

July 25, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk recovers on stronger US GDP data
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July 25, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

USD rises against JPY and CHF as US Q2 GDP comes in above expectations

EUR, JPY, CHF flows: EUR holding up against the USD despite weak surveys
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July 25, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

EUR/USD steady despite risk off tone. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF continue lower

July 19, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF gain as equities slip
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July 19, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

JPY and CHF rally as equities turn lower. JPY remains preferred on value grounds

July 08, 2024

EUR flows: EUR slightly softer after French election
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July 8, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

EUR a little softer, mainly versus CHF, after Left Alliance unexpectedly the largest party after the French election. But parliament still looks deadlocked as expected

June 21, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
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June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.

June 20, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls back on SNB rate cut
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June 20, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates 25bps as most expected. CHF weaker and some scope for further losses 

CHF, GBP flows: Some downside risks for CHF and GBP
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June 20, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

SNB and BoE monetary policy decisions today carry some risk of easier than expected policy and weaker currencies

June 19, 2024

USD flows: BOE/SNB Next Focus
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June 19, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Thursday see key BOE and SNB meetings. 

June 14, 2024

CHF flows: EUR/CHF continues to probe lower
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June 14, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

Concerns about French politics and underlying fiscal fragility maintain downward pressure on EUR/CHF

June 13, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR, CHF flows: USD lower against riskier currencies after CPI, FOMC
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June 13, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

Despite the FOMC dots showing a median expectation of only one rate cut this year, US yields and the USD are lower, except against the JPY, and JPY weakness looks anomalous. Widening France/Germany spreads may maintain downard pressure on EUR/CHF.

June 05, 2024

JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Some reversal of Tuesday's risk off moves
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June 5, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

JPY falls back ahea dof US data but still has potential for bigger picture gains. Scope for some general reversal of Tuesday's risk off trades

May 10, 2024

NOK flows: NOK edges higher after CPI
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May 10, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Norway CPI mildly stronger than expected, suggesting scope for NOK gains

April 22, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: JPY under pressure as risk sentiment recovers
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April 22, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY testing the highs. EUR/USD steady

April 19, 2024

GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, scope for risk recovery
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April 19, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

UK retail sales remain quite flat, GBP little affected. Risk sell off overnight may be further reversed with tension dissipated

April 15, 2024

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm, risk appetite recovering, JPY weak
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April 15, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Market seeing Iran attack on Israel as less bad than feared, risk appetite edging up, JPY weakening 

April 12, 2024

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
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April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot

April 05, 2024

USD, CHF, EUR, JPY flows: Risk negative tone overnight could extend
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April 5, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

Risk sentiment turned negative overnight on talk of an Iranian attack on Israel. Some scope for extension, with such an attack a real possibility.

April 04, 2024

CHF, AUD, JPY flows: CHF lower after CPI
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April 4, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

Another big downside miss in Swiss CPI weighs on the CHF

April 03, 2024

CHF, NOK flows: CHF weak, NOK strong as value makes a comeback
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April 3, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

CHF/NOK sees big decline as value starts to become a factor

March 26, 2024

CHF, AUD flows: CHF soft, AUD has recovery scope
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March 26, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

CHF increasingly the preferred funding currency. AUD has scope for recovery given extended short positioning

March 21, 2024

CHF flows: CHF drops sharply on SNB rate cut
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March 21, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

The SNB cut the policy rate 25bps. This was only seen as an outise chance before the meeting so the CHF has weakened and is likely to remain under pressure, although valuation only looks dramatically out of line against the JPY

March 14, 2024

SEK, CHF, JPY flows: SEK slips on CPI, CHF weak
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March 14, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

SEK lower after softer CPI, NOK/SEK still has upside scope. CHF the favourite funding currency in current risk positive market

March 04, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: CHF recovering after CPI but gains to be short-lived
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March 4, 2024 8:04 AM UTC

CHF gains on slightly smaller than expected decline in Feburary CPI, but CHF downside still favoured with CHF/JPY the best value trade.

January 11, 2024

JPY flows: JPY soft but approaching buying area
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January 11, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

JPY on the back foot as weak earnings data throws doubt on the potential for BoJ tightening. But JPY still has a case for gains based on valuation 

January 10, 2024

JPY flows: JPY soft as earnings data weakens
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January 10, 2024 9:27 AM UTC

JPY on the back foot as weak earnings data throws doubt on the potential for BoJ tightening. But JPY still has a case for gains based on valuation moves