EUR/CHF-Commentary

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July 02, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY weaker on tariff threats, strong equities
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July 2, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

JPY weakens as Trump threatens 30% tariff

June 23, 2025

JPY, USD, EUR, CHF flows: JPY the big loser overnight, PMI data of interest
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June 23, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

JPY loses ground across the board overnight. Preliminary June PMIs of interest in the absence of escalation of the Middle East conflict

June 19, 2025

CHF flows: EUR/CHF dips slightly after SNB cut
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June 19, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

SNB cuts 25bps as generally expected. Small EUR/CHF dip due to minority view that SNB would cut rates to negative

May 23, 2025

EUR, USD flows: EUR falls as Trump proposes 50% tariff
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May 23, 2025 12:22 PM UTC

The proposal of a 50% tariff on the EU to start on June 1 has hit the EUR

EUR, GBP flows: Data supportive of EUR and GBP
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May 23, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Strogn UK retail sales and upward revision in German GDP should underpin EUR and GBP

April 24, 2025

USD flows: Durables strong but core neutral, USD steady
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April 24, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

Stronger durables were due to aircraft, and it's hard to see much FX action into the end of the week, although declining volatility may favour the riskier currencies

EUR flows: Supported by stronger IFO survey
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April 24, 2025 8:38 AM UTC

IFO rises against expectations of a decline

NOK, SEK, CAD, JPY flows: Potential for corrections
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April 24, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

FX moves driven by the tariff driven risk sell off can correct in less volatile markets

April 11, 2025

GBP, EUR, USD, CHF flows: GBP slightly firmer on GDP, USD remains under pressure
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April 11, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

GBP benefiting from much strogner than expected UK GDP. USD remains under pressure, CHF strength may be a little overdone

April 09, 2025

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: USD and risky currencies being hit
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April 9, 2025 1:42 PM UTC

USD and risky currencies under pressure versus JPY and CHF, but some stabilisation in risky currencies expected near current levels. USD may still have further to weaken

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens favoured as tariffs come into operation
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April 9, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

US "reciprocal" tariffs have come into operation this morning, and safe havens still look likely to be favoured, with equity markets weak and US bonds being sold heavily.

March 20, 2025

CHF flows: CHF softer after rate cut
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March 20, 2025 9:06 AM UTC

CHF weaker after SNB cut rates as generally expected. More scope for CHF/JPY decline than EUR/CHF gain

March 19, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR, TRY flows: Safe havens benefit as TRY sells off
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March 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Safe haven rising as TRY sells off on detention of mayor of Istanbul

March 13, 2025

JPY flows: JPY supported by hawkish BoJ and weaker equities
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March 13, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY resumes gains as equities slip and Ueda maintains hawkish stance

February 13, 2025

EUR flows: EUR gains on Ukraine look optimistic
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February 13, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

EUR gains on the back of rising expectations of an end to the Ukraine war look optimistic

December 12, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls on 50bp SNB cut, but downside limited
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December 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

CHF declines on 50bp SNB cut, but limits to the downside while concerns about Eurozone stability maintain wide intra-Eurozone spreads

AUD, JPY, CHF flows: AUD bounces on employment data, JPY weak, but...
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December 12, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

AUD bounces strongly on better thna expected employment report. JPY weak as yields dip after reports of less hawkish BoJ. CHF awaits SNB decision

December 10, 2024

NOK flows: NOK firmer after higher CPI
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December 10, 2024 7:49 AM UTC

NOK makes some gains after CPI comes in above expectations, but scope for much larger recovery

December 09, 2024

USD, CHF flows: USD recovers slightly, CHF holds firm
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December 9, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

USD recovers slightly after post-employment dip but Fed rate cut still largely priced in. CHF stays firm on geopolitics, Eurozone concerns

November 22, 2024

CHF flows: EUR/CHF bounces on SNB comments
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November 22, 2024 2:32 PM UTC

EUR/CHF back above opening levels after SNB chair Schlegel indicates potential for negative rates. But scope for CHF losses against the UR remains quite limited. CHF/JPY and CHF/NOK much more vulnerable

November 19, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD quieter, crosses to dominate
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November 19, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Majors mostly consolidating. Verbal intervention from Japan helping cap USD/JPY but little USD momentum seen. Scope for action on crosses 

November 01, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls on weaker CPI
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November 1, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

CHF falls sharply as October CPI comes in below consensus, but declines unlikely to extend far ahead of the US election

October 02, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens firm on Middle East tension
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October 2, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Safe havens remainign strong as Middle East tension rises. Oil price move thus far is modest, but fears of escalation remain. JPY the best value of the safe havens.

September 27, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on softer PCE price data
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September 27, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

USD generally softer after PCE price index rises only 0.1% in August. AUD and JPY favoured

September 26, 2024

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: US data maintains positive risk sentiment
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September 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims and better core durable goods orders keep the USD and risky currencies on the front foot

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY weakness getting stretched
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September 26, 2024 11:46 AM UTC

JPY weakness has extended again today, but recent run of losses is getting overdone

CHF flows: SNB dovish but EUR/CHF dips initially
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September 26, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates as expected an indicates further easing likely with inflation forecatss cut. Initial EUR/CHF dip looks like a "sell on the news" reaction rather than a genuinely CHF positive take on the decision.

JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk sentiment improved o/n but NOK lags
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September 26, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

More Chinese equity gains on reports of Chinese injection of capital into banks. JPY weak, most risky currencies better, but NOK under pressure. CHF a focus on SNB meeting today

September 23, 2024

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
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September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
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September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 12, 2024

USD, JPY, AUD, CHF flows: Risk recovery overnight
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September 12, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

High yielders gain and safe havens dip on risk reocvery overnight, but JPY likely to be resilient

August 28, 2024

EUR, CHF, GBP flows: EUR offer, GBP and CHF staying firm, but...
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August 28, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks likely to hold clos to current levels. GBP and CHF gains may start to falter

August 27, 2024

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY steadier, GBP, CHF gains stretched
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August 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

JPY stabilising, CHF and GBP strength statign to look overdone

August 22, 2024

EUR flows: Bouncing as EZ numbers outperform Germany
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August 22, 2024 8:23 AM UTC

EUR bounces as EZ PMI comes in above expectations despite weaker German data

August 12, 2024

EUR, JPY, GBP, NOK flows: Mildly more risk positive tone
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August 12, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Asia trading sees modest gains in the riskier currencies with safe havens edging lower

August 09, 2024

NOK, AUD flows: NOK little changed after CPI, AUD firm
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August 9, 2024 6:27 AM UTC

NOK reverses initial post-CPI gain, but has upside scope. AUD firmer in better risk environment overnight, gains can extend

August 08, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF weaken after lower US claims data
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August 8, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

Correctve gains extend for the USD and other higher yielders

USD, JPY, GBP, CHF flows: JPY remains cheap, USD, CHF and GBP expensive
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August 8, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

The market is focused on which way risk sentiment will turn, but there is value in the FX market either way

August 07, 2024

JPY, EUR, CHF flows: JPY lower on Uchida comments
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August 7, 2024 7:01 AM UTC

BoJ deputy governor Uchida's comments indicating that the BoJ would not tighten in unstable markets has helped USD/JPY correct higher. More corrective pressure may be seen today, but underlying picture remains JPY positive 

August 06, 2024

USD, JPY, NOK, AUD flows: Mild risk recovery continues
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August 6, 2024 7:07 AM UTC

The risk reocvery ocntinued overnigth and the JPY has fallen back, but remains undervalued. CHF still has more downside scope, and high yielders could recover further

August 05, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery on ISM
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August 5, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

A better than expected ISM services index has helped to stabilise equities and risk sentiment in general, but FX markets still show extreme valuations

USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: Safe havens surge, risk currencies plunge
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August 5, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

The big risk unwind continued overnight, and safe haven currencies surged once again, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, while the commodity currencies suffered. From here much will depend on the US equity market peformance this afternoon. From a value perspective, JPY strength is justified,

August 02, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: Safe haven gains may be reaching near term limits
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August 2, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

JPY gains have been mostly a reversal of the May/June overshoot, but have been extended by the recent risk sell off. JPY crosses now approaching levels that are consistent with current risk premia. CHF strength on risk weakness likely to paude as EUR/CHF finds support near 0.94

August 01, 2024

CHF, JPY flows: CHF strength approaching limits
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August 1, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

CHF gains against the EUR reflect some weakening in risk sentiment but the JPY remains the preferred safe haven

July 26, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steadier markets as risk stabilises
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July 26, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Riskier currencies edging higher, JPY stable as risk stabilises and Japan Tokyo CPI comes in in line with expectations.

July 25, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk recovers on stronger US GDP data
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July 25, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

USD rises against JPY and CHF as US Q2 GDP comes in above expectations

EUR, JPY, CHF flows: EUR holding up against the USD despite weak surveys
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July 25, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

EUR/USD steady despite risk off tone. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF continue lower

July 19, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF gain as equities slip
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July 19, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

JPY and CHF rally as equities turn lower. JPY remains preferred on value grounds

July 08, 2024

EUR flows: EUR slightly softer after French election
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July 8, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

EUR a little softer, mainly versus CHF, after Left Alliance unexpectedly the largest party after the French election. But parliament still looks deadlocked as expected

June 21, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
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June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.