EUR/CHF-Commentary

View:

March 20, 2025

CHF flows: CHF softer after rate cut
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 9:06 AM UTC

CHF weaker after SNB cut rates as generally expected. More scope for CHF/JPY decline than EUR/CHF gain

March 19, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR, TRY flows: Safe havens benefit as TRY sells off
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Safe haven rising as TRY sells off on detention of mayor of Istanbul

March 13, 2025

JPY flows: JPY supported by hawkish BoJ and weaker equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY resumes gains as equities slip and Ueda maintains hawkish stance

February 13, 2025

EUR flows: EUR gains on Ukraine look optimistic
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

EUR gains on the back of rising expectations of an end to the Ukraine war look optimistic

December 12, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls on 50bp SNB cut, but downside limited
Paying Article

December 12, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

CHF declines on 50bp SNB cut, but limits to the downside while concerns about Eurozone stability maintain wide intra-Eurozone spreads

AUD, JPY, CHF flows: AUD bounces on employment data, JPY weak, but...
Paying Article

December 12, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

AUD bounces strongly on better thna expected employment report. JPY weak as yields dip after reports of less hawkish BoJ. CHF awaits SNB decision

December 10, 2024

NOK flows: NOK firmer after higher CPI
Paying Article

December 10, 2024 7:49 AM UTC

NOK makes some gains after CPI comes in above expectations, but scope for much larger recovery

December 09, 2024

USD, CHF flows: USD recovers slightly, CHF holds firm
Paying Article

December 9, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

USD recovers slightly after post-employment dip but Fed rate cut still largely priced in. CHF stays firm on geopolitics, Eurozone concerns

November 22, 2024

CHF flows: EUR/CHF bounces on SNB comments
Paying Article

November 22, 2024 2:32 PM UTC

EUR/CHF back above opening levels after SNB chair Schlegel indicates potential for negative rates. But scope for CHF losses against the UR remains quite limited. CHF/JPY and CHF/NOK much more vulnerable

November 19, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD quieter, crosses to dominate
Paying Article

November 19, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Majors mostly consolidating. Verbal intervention from Japan helping cap USD/JPY but little USD momentum seen. Scope for action on crosses 

November 01, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls on weaker CPI
Paying Article

November 1, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

CHF falls sharply as October CPI comes in below consensus, but declines unlikely to extend far ahead of the US election

October 02, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens firm on Middle East tension
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Safe havens remainign strong as Middle East tension rises. Oil price move thus far is modest, but fears of escalation remain. JPY the best value of the safe havens.

September 27, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on softer PCE price data
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

USD generally softer after PCE price index rises only 0.1% in August. AUD and JPY favoured

September 26, 2024

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: US data maintains positive risk sentiment
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims and better core durable goods orders keep the USD and risky currencies on the front foot

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY weakness getting stretched
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 11:46 AM UTC

JPY weakness has extended again today, but recent run of losses is getting overdone

CHF flows: SNB dovish but EUR/CHF dips initially
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates as expected an indicates further easing likely with inflation forecatss cut. Initial EUR/CHF dip looks like a "sell on the news" reaction rather than a genuinely CHF positive take on the decision.

JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk sentiment improved o/n but NOK lags
Paying Article

September 26, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

More Chinese equity gains on reports of Chinese injection of capital into banks. JPY weak, most risky currencies better, but NOK under pressure. CHF a focus on SNB meeting today

September 23, 2024

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 12, 2024

USD, JPY, AUD, CHF flows: Risk recovery overnight
Paying Article

September 12, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

High yielders gain and safe havens dip on risk reocvery overnight, but JPY likely to be resilient

August 28, 2024

EUR, CHF, GBP flows: EUR offer, GBP and CHF staying firm, but...
Paying Article

August 28, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks likely to hold clos to current levels. GBP and CHF gains may start to falter

August 27, 2024

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY steadier, GBP, CHF gains stretched
Paying Article

August 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

JPY stabilising, CHF and GBP strength statign to look overdone

August 22, 2024

EUR flows: Bouncing as EZ numbers outperform Germany
Paying Article

August 22, 2024 8:23 AM UTC

EUR bounces as EZ PMI comes in above expectations despite weaker German data

August 12, 2024

EUR, JPY, GBP, NOK flows: Mildly more risk positive tone
Paying Article

August 12, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

Asia trading sees modest gains in the riskier currencies with safe havens edging lower

August 09, 2024

NOK, AUD flows: NOK little changed after CPI, AUD firm
Paying Article

August 9, 2024 6:27 AM UTC

NOK reverses initial post-CPI gain, but has upside scope. AUD firmer in better risk environment overnight, gains can extend

August 08, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF weaken after lower US claims data
Paying Article

August 8, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

Correctve gains extend for the USD and other higher yielders

USD, JPY, GBP, CHF flows: JPY remains cheap, USD, CHF and GBP expensive
Paying Article

August 8, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

The market is focused on which way risk sentiment will turn, but there is value in the FX market either way

August 07, 2024

JPY, EUR, CHF flows: JPY lower on Uchida comments
Paying Article

August 7, 2024 7:01 AM UTC

BoJ deputy governor Uchida's comments indicating that the BoJ would not tighten in unstable markets has helped USD/JPY correct higher. More corrective pressure may be seen today, but underlying picture remains JPY positive 

August 06, 2024

USD, JPY, NOK, AUD flows: Mild risk recovery continues
Paying Article

August 6, 2024 7:07 AM UTC

The risk reocvery ocntinued overnigth and the JPY has fallen back, but remains undervalued. CHF still has more downside scope, and high yielders could recover further

August 05, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery on ISM
Paying Article

August 5, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

A better than expected ISM services index has helped to stabilise equities and risk sentiment in general, but FX markets still show extreme valuations

USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: Safe havens surge, risk currencies plunge
Paying Article

August 5, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

The big risk unwind continued overnight, and safe haven currencies surged once again, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, while the commodity currencies suffered. From here much will depend on the US equity market peformance this afternoon. From a value perspective, JPY strength is justified,

August 02, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: Safe haven gains may be reaching near term limits
Paying Article

August 2, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

JPY gains have been mostly a reversal of the May/June overshoot, but have been extended by the recent risk sell off. JPY crosses now approaching levels that are consistent with current risk premia. CHF strength on risk weakness likely to paude as EUR/CHF finds support near 0.94

August 01, 2024

CHF, JPY flows: CHF strength approaching limits
Paying Article

August 1, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

CHF gains against the EUR reflect some weakening in risk sentiment but the JPY remains the preferred safe haven

July 26, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steadier markets as risk stabilises
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Riskier currencies edging higher, JPY stable as risk stabilises and Japan Tokyo CPI comes in in line with expectations.

July 25, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk recovers on stronger US GDP data
Paying Article

July 25, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

USD rises against JPY and CHF as US Q2 GDP comes in above expectations

EUR, JPY, CHF flows: EUR holding up against the USD despite weak surveys
Paying Article

July 25, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

EUR/USD steady despite risk off tone. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF continue lower

July 19, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF gain as equities slip
Paying Article

July 19, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

JPY and CHF rally as equities turn lower. JPY remains preferred on value grounds

July 08, 2024

EUR flows: EUR slightly softer after French election
Paying Article

July 8, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

EUR a little softer, mainly versus CHF, after Left Alliance unexpectedly the largest party after the French election. But parliament still looks deadlocked as expected

June 21, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.

June 20, 2024

CHF flows: CHF falls back on SNB rate cut
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 7:46 AM UTC

SNB cuts rates 25bps as most expected. CHF weaker and some scope for further losses 

CHF, GBP flows: Some downside risks for CHF and GBP
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:36 AM UTC

SNB and BoE monetary policy decisions today carry some risk of easier than expected policy and weaker currencies

June 19, 2024

USD flows: BOE/SNB Next Focus
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Thursday see key BOE and SNB meetings. 

June 14, 2024

CHF flows: EUR/CHF continues to probe lower
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

Concerns about French politics and underlying fiscal fragility maintain downward pressure on EUR/CHF

June 13, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR, CHF flows: USD lower against riskier currencies after CPI, FOMC
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

Despite the FOMC dots showing a median expectation of only one rate cut this year, US yields and the USD are lower, except against the JPY, and JPY weakness looks anomalous. Widening France/Germany spreads may maintain downard pressure on EUR/CHF.

June 05, 2024

JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Some reversal of Tuesday's risk off moves
Paying Article

June 5, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

JPY falls back ahea dof US data but still has potential for bigger picture gains. Scope for some general reversal of Tuesday's risk off trades

May 10, 2024

NOK flows: NOK edges higher after CPI
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Norway CPI mildly stronger than expected, suggesting scope for NOK gains

April 22, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: JPY under pressure as risk sentiment recovers
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY testing the highs. EUR/USD steady

April 19, 2024

GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, scope for risk recovery
Paying Article

April 19, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

UK retail sales remain quite flat, GBP little affected. Risk sell off overnight may be further reversed with tension dissipated

April 15, 2024

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm, risk appetite recovering, JPY weak
Paying Article

April 15, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Market seeing Iran attack on Israel as less bad than feared, risk appetite edging up, JPY weakening 

April 12, 2024

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
Paying Article

April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot