EUR/JPY-Commentary

View:

June 27, 2025

USD flows: Softer after data, EUR leading
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

USD lower as prices rise more than expected and income and spending disappoint

USD flows: New highs in S&P supportive for USD/JPY
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Quiet overnight session but equity strength keeping JPY under pressure

June 23, 2025

JPY, USD, EUR, CHF flows: JPY the big loser overnight, PMI data of interest
Paying Article

June 23, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

JPY loses ground across the board overnight. Preliminary June PMIs of interest in the absence of escalation of the Middle East conflict

June 19, 2025

CHF flows: EUR/CHF dips slightly after SNB cut
Paying Article

June 19, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

SNB cuts 25bps as generally expected. Small EUR/CHF dip due to minority view that SNB would cut rates to negative

June 17, 2025

JPY, SEK flows: JPY soft, SEK has scope to weaken
Paying Article

June 17, 2025 7:08 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks extended, some scope for correction. SEK strength may falter after higher unemployment

June 11, 2025

USD flows: US-China trade progress fails to impress
Paying Article

June 11, 2025 7:17 PM UTC

Even with a surprisingly subdued CPI to welcome, equities have not been as positive on the US-China trade progress as was Trump, with China’s 6-month limit on rare-earth export licenses suggesting they wish to maintain some leverage. USD weakness has resumed after the post-CPI dip was followed by

June 06, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR supported by German data, JPY soft
Paying Article

June 6, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

Solid German production and orders data support more positive EUR tone post-ECB. JPY undermined by weak real wages and consumption.

June 04, 2025

USD flows: USD dips further on weak ISM services
Paying Article

June 4, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

Weak ISM services keeps downward pressure on the USD

USD flows: USD dips on weak ADP
Paying Article

June 4, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

ADP much weaker than expected pulling the USD lower, especially against the JPY

June 03, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD firmer overnight, JPY dips on Ueda, AUD soft
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

USD firmer in Asia with commodity currencies weaker. JPY dips on Ueda but net impact modest. Rangy trading to persist

May 30, 2025

JPY, EUR flows: JPY higher on more risk negative tone, EUR edging down
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

JPY benefiting from weakening risk sentiment, stronger CPI. EUR slipping towards the centre of recent range

May 29, 2025

USD flows: USD lower as consumer spending revised down
Paying Article

May 29, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower as Q1 consumer spending revised down to just 1.2%

USD flows: USD gains on court tariff decision
Paying Article

May 29, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

USD up vs safe havens as court rues reciprocal tariffs illegal

May 27, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: USD firmer early after EUR rally on Monday
Paying Article

May 27, 2025 7:09 AM UTC

EUR gained as tariff threat delayed, but slipping after weak French CPI. JPY under presure

May 23, 2025

EUR, USD flows: EUR falls as Trump proposes 50% tariff
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 12:22 PM UTC

The proposal of a 50% tariff on the EU to start on June 1 has hit the EUR

EUR, GBP flows: Data supportive of EUR and GBP
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Strogn UK retail sales and upward revision in German GDP should underpin EUR and GBP

May 12, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD, CAD flows: Risk positive tone persists on hopes of US/China trade deal
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

Reports of progress in US/China trade talks trigger more risk positive moves in equities and FX. 

May 06, 2025

JPY, AUD flows: USD lower, JPY outperforming
Paying Article

May 6, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

JPY largely reversed the weakness seen late last week, but may now hold near current levels. AUD recovery could extend

May 02, 2025

USD flows: Employment report should be broadly neutral
Paying Article

May 2, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

Net of revisions, the employment report looks close to consensus

JPY flows: JPY staying weak as risk appetite recovers, but...
Paying Article

May 2, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

EUR/JPY hit a new high for the year. Corrective activity possible pre-emloyment report, but turn in risk sentiment needed to halt JPY weakness

May 01, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD stronger, JPY weaker on BoJ, Microsoft
Paying Article

May 1, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

The USD is generally stronger helped by positive Microsoft earnings, and the JPY has suffered from the BoJ cut to growth forecasts. But we still favour the JPY medium term

April 30, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR upside limited by weak EUR data
Paying Article

April 30, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

French GDP rises, but only due to inventory build-up. EUR/USD upside limited by weak Eurozone growth prospects

April 25, 2025

USD, JPY flows: JPY weaker after UMich data
Paying Article

April 25, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

University of Michigan sentiment data shows further weakness in confidence and further rise in inflation expectations, but moves slightly smaller than expected. JPY correction lower looks near complete

April 14, 2025

EUR, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: USD remains under pressure, risk steadier for now
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

USD still under pressure, risk sentiment stabilising but danger of renewed weakness

April 09, 2025

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: USD and risky currencies being hit
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 1:42 PM UTC

USD and risky currencies under pressure versus JPY and CHF, but some stabilisation in risky currencies expected near current levels. USD may still have further to weaken

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens favoured as tariffs come into operation
Paying Article

April 9, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

US "reciprocal" tariffs have come into operation this morning, and safe havens still look likely to be favoured, with equity markets weak and US bonds being sold heavily.

April 08, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: JPY and AUD look good value
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

A mild risk reocvery is being seen, but whether it continues will depend on the news on tariffs. But there is value in JPY, AUD and NOK

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery, but...
Paying Article

April 8, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Equity markets recovering modestly but still value in JPY

April 07, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Hassett triggers risk recovery, but...
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 2:37 PM UTC

Hassett suggestion that there may be a 90 day pause in tariffs has stabilised things for now, but enough damage has been done to suggest any JPY decline is a buying opportunity

USD, JPY flows: Equity carnage points to big JPY rally
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 6:49 AM UTC

Equity collapse suggests JPY set for major rise

April 04, 2025

USD, JPY flows: JPY surges again on China retaliation
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 11:24 AM UTC

China has announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% triggering general sharp losses in equities and a shift out of riskier currencies to the JPY and CHF

April 03, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness dramatic
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

USD declines have been sharp and greater than suggested by yield spread moves. We may be seeing a sea change in sentiment

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD down on tariff rise, JPY favoured
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 6:53 AM UTC

The market seems to have been unprepared for the well flagged US tariff increase, and equity weakness and bond yield declines suggest JPY gains most reliable

April 02, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Tariffs awaited, markets uncertain
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

From a big picture perspective US equities still look expensive and tariff increases suggest further downside for equities and USD/JPY. But in the short term the makret may perceive the risks to have been priced in by the 10% decline in the S&P from the highs, so there is a risk of a "buy on the new

April 01, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD lower on ISM
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

A weak ISM survey pulling the USD lower against the JPY in particular

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Tariffs awaited
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

A quiet calendar today with tomorrow's reciprocal tariff announcement the main focus

March 31, 2025

EUR flows: German state CPIs broadly in line with consensus
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

Mixed German state CPIs. Mild upside risk but close enough to consensus for there to be no significant EUR impact.

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as risk weakens
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

Weaker equities and lower yields on tariff concerns supporting JPY gains

March 20, 2025

CHF flows: CHF softer after rate cut
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 9:06 AM UTC

CHF weaker after SNB cut rates as generally expected. More scope for CHF/JPY decline than EUR/CHF gain

JPY flows: JPY benefiting from lower US yields and geopolitics
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 8:08 AM UTC

JPY strengthening on the back of lower US yields 

March 19, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR, TRY flows: Safe havens benefit as TRY sells off
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Safe haven rising as TRY sells off on detention of mayor of Istanbul

JPY flows: JPY mildly supported by Ueda press conference
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

Ueda mildly hawksih, JPY has upside scope in most scenarios

March 18, 2025

JPY, AUD flows: JPY soft AUD strong as risk tone improves
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

USD/JPY correcting towards 150, AUD/USD threatening 0.64 resistance area

March 13, 2025

JPY flows: JPY supported by hawkish BoJ and weaker equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY resumes gains as equities slip and Ueda maintains hawkish stance

March 12, 2025

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD recovers as JPY corrects lower
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

USD recovering modestly in moe neutral risk environment. EUR/JPY back in line with the historic risk premium correlation

March 10, 2025

JPY flows: JPY continues to make gains
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

JPY strength continues as yield spreads narrow and equities weaken

February 27, 2025

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
Paying Article

February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

February 25, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD soft on lower US yields
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

Lower US yields are driving the USD lower, as expectations of tax cuts and government spending are being revised down, while there are also uncertainties around tariffs and QT.

CAD, AUD, JPY flows: Tariffs the focus
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

Trump's indication that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be introduced as planned on March 4 undermines risk sentiment with CAD vulnerable and JPY favoured 

February 24, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR cheered by German election, JPY stll firm
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

German election result seen as positive for German economy and the EUR. Narrowing yield spreads suggest more JPY strength to come