EUR/JPY-Commentary

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May 12, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD, CAD flows: Risk positive tone persists on hopes of US/China trade deal
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May 12, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

Reports of progress in US/China trade talks trigger more risk positive moves in equities and FX. 

May 06, 2025

JPY, AUD flows: USD lower, JPY outperforming
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May 6, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

JPY largely reversed the weakness seen late last week, but may now hold near current levels. AUD recovery could extend

May 02, 2025

USD flows: Employment report should be broadly neutral
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May 2, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

Net of revisions, the employment report looks close to consensus

JPY flows: JPY staying weak as risk appetite recovers, but...
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May 2, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

EUR/JPY hit a new high for the year. Corrective activity possible pre-emloyment report, but turn in risk sentiment needed to halt JPY weakness

May 01, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD stronger, JPY weaker on BoJ, Microsoft
Paying Article

May 1, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

The USD is generally stronger helped by positive Microsoft earnings, and the JPY has suffered from the BoJ cut to growth forecasts. But we still favour the JPY medium term

April 30, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR upside limited by weak EUR data
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April 30, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

French GDP rises, but only due to inventory build-up. EUR/USD upside limited by weak Eurozone growth prospects

April 25, 2025

USD, JPY flows: JPY weaker after UMich data
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April 25, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

University of Michigan sentiment data shows further weakness in confidence and further rise in inflation expectations, but moves slightly smaller than expected. JPY correction lower looks near complete

April 14, 2025

EUR, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: USD remains under pressure, risk steadier for now
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April 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

USD still under pressure, risk sentiment stabilising but danger of renewed weakness

April 09, 2025

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: USD and risky currencies being hit
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April 9, 2025 1:42 PM UTC

USD and risky currencies under pressure versus JPY and CHF, but some stabilisation in risky currencies expected near current levels. USD may still have further to weaken

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens favoured as tariffs come into operation
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April 9, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

US "reciprocal" tariffs have come into operation this morning, and safe havens still look likely to be favoured, with equity markets weak and US bonds being sold heavily.

April 08, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: JPY and AUD look good value
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April 8, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

A mild risk reocvery is being seen, but whether it continues will depend on the news on tariffs. But there is value in JPY, AUD and NOK

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery, but...
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April 8, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Equity markets recovering modestly but still value in JPY

April 07, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Hassett triggers risk recovery, but...
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April 7, 2025 2:37 PM UTC

Hassett suggestion that there may be a 90 day pause in tariffs has stabilised things for now, but enough damage has been done to suggest any JPY decline is a buying opportunity

USD, JPY flows: Equity carnage points to big JPY rally
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April 7, 2025 6:49 AM UTC

Equity collapse suggests JPY set for major rise

April 04, 2025

USD, JPY flows: JPY surges again on China retaliation
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April 4, 2025 11:24 AM UTC

China has announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% triggering general sharp losses in equities and a shift out of riskier currencies to the JPY and CHF

April 03, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness dramatic
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April 3, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

USD declines have been sharp and greater than suggested by yield spread moves. We may be seeing a sea change in sentiment

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD down on tariff rise, JPY favoured
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April 3, 2025 6:53 AM UTC

The market seems to have been unprepared for the well flagged US tariff increase, and equity weakness and bond yield declines suggest JPY gains most reliable

April 02, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Tariffs awaited, markets uncertain
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April 2, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

From a big picture perspective US equities still look expensive and tariff increases suggest further downside for equities and USD/JPY. But in the short term the makret may perceive the risks to have been priced in by the 10% decline in the S&P from the highs, so there is a risk of a "buy on the new

April 01, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD lower on ISM
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April 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

A weak ISM survey pulling the USD lower against the JPY in particular

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Tariffs awaited
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April 1, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

A quiet calendar today with tomorrow's reciprocal tariff announcement the main focus

March 31, 2025

EUR flows: German state CPIs broadly in line with consensus
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March 31, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

Mixed German state CPIs. Mild upside risk but close enough to consensus for there to be no significant EUR impact.

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as risk weakens
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March 31, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

Weaker equities and lower yields on tariff concerns supporting JPY gains

March 20, 2025

CHF flows: CHF softer after rate cut
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March 20, 2025 9:06 AM UTC

CHF weaker after SNB cut rates as generally expected. More scope for CHF/JPY decline than EUR/CHF gain

JPY flows: JPY benefiting from lower US yields and geopolitics
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March 20, 2025 8:08 AM UTC

JPY strengthening on the back of lower US yields 

March 19, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR, TRY flows: Safe havens benefit as TRY sells off
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March 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Safe haven rising as TRY sells off on detention of mayor of Istanbul

JPY flows: JPY mildly supported by Ueda press conference
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March 19, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

Ueda mildly hawksih, JPY has upside scope in most scenarios

March 18, 2025

JPY, AUD flows: JPY soft AUD strong as risk tone improves
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March 18, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

USD/JPY correcting towards 150, AUD/USD threatening 0.64 resistance area

March 13, 2025

JPY flows: JPY supported by hawkish BoJ and weaker equities
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March 13, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY resumes gains as equities slip and Ueda maintains hawkish stance

March 12, 2025

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD recovers as JPY corrects lower
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March 12, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

USD recovering modestly in moe neutral risk environment. EUR/JPY back in line with the historic risk premium correlation

March 10, 2025

JPY flows: JPY continues to make gains
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March 10, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

JPY strength continues as yield spreads narrow and equities weaken

February 27, 2025

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
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February 27, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

February 25, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD soft on lower US yields
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February 25, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

Lower US yields are driving the USD lower, as expectations of tax cuts and government spending are being revised down, while there are also uncertainties around tariffs and QT.

CAD, AUD, JPY flows: Tariffs the focus
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February 25, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

Trump's indication that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be introduced as planned on March 4 undermines risk sentiment with CAD vulnerable and JPY favoured 

February 24, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR cheered by German election, JPY stll firm
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February 24, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

German election result seen as positive for German economy and the EUR. Narrowing yield spreads suggest more JPY strength to come

February 20, 2025

JPY flows: JPY testing recent highs
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February 20, 2025 8:02 AM UTC

JPY testing recent highs on yield spreads and risk aversion

February 13, 2025

EUR flows: EUR gains on Ukraine look optimistic
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February 13, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

EUR gains on the back of rising expectations of an end to the Ukraine war look optimistic

February 12, 2025

USD flows: USD gains on higher than expected CPI
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February 12, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

US January CPI comes in much stronger than expected, killing hopes of an early Fed rate cut and boosting US yields and the USD

JPY flows: JPY weakness looks corrective and unsupported by news
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February 12, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

JPY losses overnight look hard to justify based on news. Decline looks mainly technical and likely to meet JPY buying near current levels

February 11, 2025

USD flows: Muted response to Powell
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February 11, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

Powell triggering slightly firmer yields but USD not much changed

February 05, 2025

JPY flows: JPY gains on strong wage data, further upside seen
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February 5, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

Japanese December wage data surges pulling JPY higher. Yield spreads indicate further JPY gains

February 04, 2025

CAD, EUR, JPY flows: CAD bounces on tariff reprieve, EUR and JPY have upside scope
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February 4, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Most currencies back to Friday's close as Trump suspends Canadian and Mexican tariffs for a month

February 03, 2025

USD flows: US falls as gaps close but underlying story remains
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February 3, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

USD weakes as opening gaps close but downside limited except against the JPY

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD and JPY strength to be sustained near term
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February 3, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

Imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China was clearly not priced in. USD and JPY gains to be systained, with JPY strength to potentially increase if equities weaken further

January 30, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR weaker as GDP disappoints
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January 30, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

Weaker than expected German and Italian Q4 GDP pushes EUR/USD lower

January 14, 2025

EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: General USD correction, AUD favoured
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January 14, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

USD corrects lower as equities rally

January 13, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD, JPY former, AUD looks oversold
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January 13, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

USD and JPY benefit as equities soften but equity weakness is mild and AUD looks undervalued

January 10, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD weaker as equities fall
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January 10, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Rising inflation expectations in Universiyt of Michigan survey support higher yields and weight on equities, supporting the JPY

January 02, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR starting the year soft, some potential for recovery
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January 2, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

EUR looking soft against established metrics. USD/JPY still sticking to 10 year spread correlation.

December 24, 2024

USD/JPY flows: Trump and the JPY
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December 24, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

Hedge funds are gearing up for 160 or 165 on USD/JPY in Q1 2025, with the BOJ delaying tightening and the USD mood positive.

December 06, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: Squeeze on long JPY positions
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December 6, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

EUR/JPY recovering but 160 likely to be toppish