EUR/JPY-Commentary

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November 19, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD quieter, crosses to dominate
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November 19, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Majors mostly consolidating. Verbal intervention from Japan helping cap USD/JPY but little USD momentum seen. Scope for action on crosses 

November 18, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY slips after Ueda comments
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November 18, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

USD/JPY moved higher after Ueda speech, but BoJ December rate hike remains a close call. EUR/USD may have modest scope for recovery.

November 14, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD flows: USD stays firm
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November 14, 2024 7:55 AM UTC

USD gains continue but stretched against AUD and JPY

November 13, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD slips back after CPI
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November 13, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

US yields and the USD both fall despite CPI being bang in line with consensus. Scope for more JPY gains

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD stays firm, JPY under pressure
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November 13, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

US yields and the USD continue to rise. JPY weakness the feature overnight helped by further decline in equity risk premia to the lowest since 2002. 

November 06, 2024

USD flows: USD up on likely Republican clean sweep
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November 6, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

USD up as Trump victory seems assured with the Republicans also likely to win both houses of Congress. JPY to suffer most initially on risk positive move 

November 05, 2024

USD flows: ISM services data gives the USD a boost
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November 5, 2024 3:08 PM UTC

Strongest index since November 2022

USD flows: Election scenarios for the USD
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November 5, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

USD to gain on Trump victory, fall on Harris win

USD flows: Election awaited, mild risk positive tone
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November 5, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

Markets awaiting election news. USD starting close to fair based on recent metrics. 

November 01, 2024

USD flows: USD generally weaker after employment report
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November 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

US employment report clearly on the weak side with downward revisions to August and September as well as the weaker (but weather and strike affected) October number. USD risks on the downside but major move unlikely ahead of the election 

October 31, 2024

JPY flows: JPY firmer after BoJ
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October 31, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

JPY firmer after BoJ meeting with Ueda comments suggesting tightening cycle will continue

October 28, 2024

USD. JPY, EUR flows: JPY soft after election, USD firm
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October 28, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

USD/JPY continues to gain as ruling coalition loses majority at weekend election, while USD continues to benefit from rising yields. 

October 23, 2024

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends further
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October 23, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

More post August highs for USD/JPY as US yield rise continues. Short term JPY weakness hard to oppose while US equity sentiment holds firm, but longer term levels are overstretched

October 22, 2024

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends
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October 22, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

More post August highs for USD/JPY as US yield rise continues. Short term JPY weakness hard to oppose while US equity sentiment holds firm, but longer term levels are overstretched

October 18, 2024

USD flows: USD a little softer after housing starts
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October 18, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

USD dips slightly after housing starts. EUR/USD still looks biased lower but USD/JPY stretched near 150.

October 09, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD firm, JPY weakness extends
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October 9, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

USD strength and JPY weakness extends. Echoes of early summer and more JPY wekanes looks likely unless we see weaker US CPI data

October 04, 2024

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
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October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

October 03, 2024

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends
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October 3, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

JPY weakness extends on dovish comments from Ishiba against background of better regional risk sentiment

October 02, 2024

USD, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm after better ADP
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October 2, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

USD generally higher but JPY seeing largest move as risk sentiment recovers (at least in FX trading)

September 27, 2024

JPY flows: JPY rises sharply in early Europe
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September 27, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD/JPY falls 3 big figures in early Europe. Wires are attributing the move to the result of the Japanese LDP leadership election, although it looks like a move that might have been triggered by intervention. Either way, it breaks the JPY downtrend of the last two weeks, but further action may be ne

September 25, 2024

AUD, JPY flows: Mildly corrective risk tone
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September 25, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

Some correction seen in recent risk positive moves as equities edge lower

September 23, 2024

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
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September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
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September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 20, 2024

JPY flows: JPY weakens on Ueda comments
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September 20, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY has risen a figure in response to the Ueda press conference. While Ueda retained his longer temr hawkish stance, his comments suggested there was no hurry to raise rates

September 19, 2024

USD, JPY flows: JPY weakness the main FX impact of the 50bp Fed cut
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September 19, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

USD/JPY was higher after the Fed rate cut, with US yields and equities both rising. Other currencies were little changed against the USD

September 17, 2024

EUR flows: EUR little affected by weak ZEW
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September 17, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

ZEW survey very weak but EUR show little reaction. Nevertheless, it does suggest some downside risks.

September 11, 2024

USD flows: USD up on stronger CPI
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September 11, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

USD gains across the board, though JPY initially sees the most weakness

September 09, 2024

USD, JPY, AUD, EUR flows: JPY slightly offered as risk recovers
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September 9, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

A better equity performance overnight has allowed some correction to recent JPY strength, but JPY still looks well supported

August 27, 2024

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY steadier, GBP, CHF gains stretched
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August 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

JPY stabilising, CHF and GBP strength statign to look overdone

August 26, 2024

JPY flows: Bullishness on JPY Remains
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August 26, 2024 9:06 AM UTC

JPY is condolidating, but bias remains for further gains this week.  

August 22, 2024

USD flows: USD rising on better PMI
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August 22, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

USD gains as PMI rises more than expected 

August 20, 2024

JPY flows: JPY reverses Monday gains, but...
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August 20, 2024 7:02 AM UTC

JPY gains on Monday largely reversed, but upside potential remains

August 16, 2024

USD, JPY flows: JPY up after softer US housing starts
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August 16, 2024 12:55 PM UTC

US July Housing starts the lowest since May 2020 extend JPY rise

August 08, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF weaken after lower US claims data
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August 8, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

Correctve gains extend for the USD and other higher yielders

USD, JPY, GBP, CHF flows: JPY remains cheap, USD, CHF and GBP expensive
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August 8, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

The market is focused on which way risk sentiment will turn, but there is value in the FX market either way

August 07, 2024

JPY, EUR, CHF flows: JPY lower on Uchida comments
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August 7, 2024 7:01 AM UTC

BoJ deputy governor Uchida's comments indicating that the BoJ would not tighten in unstable markets has helped USD/JPY correct higher. More corrective pressure may be seen today, but underlying picture remains JPY positive 

August 06, 2024

USD, JPY, NOK, AUD flows: Mild risk recovery continues
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August 6, 2024 7:07 AM UTC

The risk reocvery ocntinued overnigth and the JPY has fallen back, but remains undervalued. CHF still has more downside scope, and high yielders could recover further

August 05, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery on ISM
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August 5, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

A better than expected ISM services index has helped to stabilise equities and risk sentiment in general, but FX markets still show extreme valuations

USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: Safe havens surge, risk currencies plunge
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August 5, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

The big risk unwind continued overnight, and safe haven currencies surged once again, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, while the commodity currencies suffered. From here much will depend on the US equity market peformance this afternoon. From a value perspective, JPY strength is justified,

August 02, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD lower, JPY gains on weak US employment report
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August 2, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

Weaker than expected employment growth, a higher unemployment rate and weaker than expected average earnings mean the employent report is unambiguously weak. USD weakness mainly against the JPY as high yielders are suffering from weaker risk sentiment

JPY, CHF flows: Safe haven gains may be reaching near term limits
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August 2, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

JPY gains have been mostly a reversal of the May/June overshoot, but have been extended by the recent risk sell off. JPY crosses now approaching levels that are consistent with current risk premia. CHF strength on risk weakness likely to paude as EUR/CHF finds support near 0.94

August 01, 2024

CHF, JPY flows: CHF strength approaching limits
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August 1, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

CHF gains against the EUR reflect some weakening in risk sentiment but the JPY remains the preferred safe haven

July 26, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steadier markets as risk stabilises
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July 26, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Riskier currencies edging higher, JPY stable as risk stabilises and Japan Tokyo CPI comes in in line with expectations.

July 25, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF, NOK flows: Risk recovers on stronger US GDP data
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July 25, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

USD rises against JPY and CHF as US Q2 GDP comes in above expectations

EUR, JPY, CHF flows: EUR holding up against the USD despite weak surveys
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July 25, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

EUR/USD steady despite risk off tone. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF continue lower

July 24, 2024

JPY flows: JPY rally continues as risky assets soften
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July 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

JPY up, riskier currencies down as equities and commodities fall back

July 22, 2024

JPY flows: JPY opens firm in Europe
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July 22, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

JPY gains strongly at European open without obvious trigger but US politics a focus

July 19, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: JPY and CHF gain as equities slip
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July 19, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

JPY and CHF rally as equities turn lower. JPY remains preferred on value grounds

July 15, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD better bid after Trump assassination attempt
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July 15, 2024 6:50 AM UTC

USD firmer, higher yielders likely more vulnerable with risk appetite a little weaker 

July 11, 2024

JPY flows: Extreme JPY weakness; what can turn it?
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July 11, 2024 10:53 AM UTC

The JPY is at record weak levels and continued to make new lows despite narrowing yield spreads and FX intervention. Will the trend ever turn? Risk aversion looks liek the most likely candidate to trigger a recovery which could be huge when it comes