EUR/JPY-Commentary
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September 09, 2024
August 27, 2024
August 26, 2024
August 22, 2024
August 20, 2024
August 16, 2024
August 08, 2024
August 07, 2024
August 06, 2024
August 05, 2024
USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NOK flows: Safe havens surge, risk currencies plunge
August 5, 2024 6:54 AM UTC
The big risk unwind continued overnight, and safe haven currencies surged once again, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, while the commodity currencies suffered. From here much will depend on the US equity market peformance this afternoon. From a value perspective, JPY strength is justified,
August 02, 2024
USD, JPY flows: USD lower, JPY gains on weak US employment report
August 2, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
Weaker than expected employment growth, a higher unemployment rate and weaker than expected average earnings mean the employent report is unambiguously weak. USD weakness mainly against the JPY as high yielders are suffering from weaker risk sentiment
JPY, CHF flows: Safe haven gains may be reaching near term limits
August 2, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
JPY gains have been mostly a reversal of the May/June overshoot, but have been extended by the recent risk sell off. JPY crosses now approaching levels that are consistent with current risk premia. CHF strength on risk weakness likely to paude as EUR/CHF finds support near 0.94
August 01, 2024
July 26, 2024
July 25, 2024
July 24, 2024
July 22, 2024
July 19, 2024
July 15, 2024
July 11, 2024
JPY flows: Extreme JPY weakness; what can turn it?
July 11, 2024 10:53 AM UTC
The JPY is at record weak levels and continued to make new lows despite narrowing yield spreads and FX intervention. Will the trend ever turn? Risk aversion looks liek the most likely candidate to trigger a recovery which could be huge when it comes
July 08, 2024
July 05, 2024
July 03, 2024
June 18, 2024
June 14, 2024
June 13, 2024
USD, JPY, EUR, CHF flows: USD lower against riskier currencies after CPI, FOMC
June 13, 2024 6:55 AM UTC
Despite the FOMC dots showing a median expectation of only one rate cut this year, US yields and the USD are lower, except against the JPY, and JPY weakness looks anomalous. Widening France/Germany spreads may maintain downard pressure on EUR/CHF.
June 07, 2024
June 06, 2024
EUR flows: Lagrade Back Lane Clearer Guidance
June 6, 2024 1:48 PM UTC
While Largarde did not provide specific guidance, she confirmed the clear message from ECB Lane that the lagged effects of tighter policy will still feedthrough H2 2024 and 2025; policy is now forward looking and real policy rates have risen and need to be lowered.