Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze

August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 17-21

August 14, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

In additional to the usual Iran-watching, dual focus for the week ahead come from FOMC Minutes and the Aug 19 deadline for US-Canada trade talks

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 10-14

August 7, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

Key focus this week is US CPI. We look for 0.1% headline, 0.2% core
UK GDP consensus 0.1% in Jun but downside risks from heatwave?
Mkt eyes BoJ meeting comments for clues

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

The Fed's Balance Sheet: Revolution or Recalibration

August 3, 2026 9:18 AM UTC

·       Fed chair Warsh has reopened the question of how the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy, not just the size of the balance sheet. The two go hand in hand.
·        The realistic choice is not between today's balance sheet and a return to 2006, but among several ways of o

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:47 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

.   ·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish bias

FOMC - Warsh leaves markets confused

July 29, 2026 7:30 PM UTC

That this FOMC meeting showed a 9-3 vote for unchanged policy, with the dissents being for tightening, shows there was a case for tightening and a case for steady policy. However, the press conference from Chairman Warsh gave little insight on the nature of the debate, talking a lot about how the Fe

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

Europe data week ahead: August 3-7

July 29, 2026 9:49 AM UTC

Only 2nd and 3rd tier releases in EZ/UK in 1st week of August. 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 1:30 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

DM Data Week Ahead: July 27-30

July 24, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

Key events are Fed and BOE meeting, though BOJ will also attract attention,  Key data is Q2 U.S. GDP. 

Trump: Tariffs 2.0

July 24, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

•    Replacing section 122 at 10% with section 301 at 10-12.5% is unlikely to have much lasting economic impact in itself.  However, the Trump administration are also undertaking section 301 investigation against 16 countries on excess production, with the report and new tariffs expected in A

ECB: September Hike 50% Probability?

July 23, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

·       Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,

BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 20-24

July 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

The highlight of the week comes from the ECB meeting and press conference, although we do not expect it to provide much guidance regarding September, sticking to the non-pre-commit language, to keep options open depending on data and geopolitical developments. 
The UK has its busy week, but data is

ECB: Bark No Bite

July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher.  We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?

July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC

·       The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 13-17

July 10, 2026 3:06 PM UTC

The most significant release of the week is likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financ

FOMC Minutes - Fork in the road: scenario-dependent policy

July 8, 2026 10:19 PM UTC

The June Minutes show a Committee that had skewed slightly more hawkish, in pockets, but had mainly moved toward greater uncertainty and dispersion. 
The spine of the policy debate now revolves around a fork in the road: two plausible inflation trajectories, with policy calibration in either directi

Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength

July 6, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks

July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning. 
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l

UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative

June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones.  This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer.   Such shots of real growth ar

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3

June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

ECB Sin(a)tra Preview: Should the ECB Only Consider My Way?

June 26, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

The speed and manner in which the ECB adopted a hawkish stance is response to the Middle East conflict was no surprise; it has many precedents, some of which have led to policy errors which we think may be being repeated at this juncture.  Indeed, despite friendlier price and costs signals, the ECB

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE

June 26, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag