France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices slower in August

September 30, 2026 5:22 PM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE price index at 1.92% annualized in August is similar to July’s and the third straight month below 2.0%. Yr/yr growth of 2.19% is down from 2.28% in both June and July and the slowest since August 2021.

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track

September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

U.S. Outlook: Growth Overly Dependent on AI

September 22, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

•    The US economy is currently showing signs of acceleration with business investment strong led by AI and consumer spending outperforming real disposable income, in part because of AI-assisted strength in equities. We expect continued strength in business investment though a modest slowing

DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices

September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

·       EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur

Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship

September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative

BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes

September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

·       BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace.  The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f

BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes

September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC

·       BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace.  The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up

September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC

The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D

FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up

September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff

September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects.  Breakeven inflation expectatio

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears

September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

·       For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year.  Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027

QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead

September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk

September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater.  Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad

NBIM’s bond allocation rethink

September 8, 2026 7:30 AM UTC

* Proposal would imply $80bn~ Treasury sell, although little net USD change
* JGBs see marked pick up, presented as method change more than value, but…
* Several peers already follow broader bond mix. Is NBIM just ‘catch up’ or does to speak to wider concerns and incentives?

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

September 7, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Our new baseline (60%) is for a new ceasefire deal into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 that allows more shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We feel that economic pressure on Iran remains intense and that Iran will want to lift the U.S. blockade on its energy shipments and export revenue.  The Trump

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

UK External Account: The Ugly and the Good

August 31, 2026 11:02 AM UTC

·       The UK has seen a ugly persistent worsening of the EU goods trade deficit since leaving the EU in 2020, but two current account trends are good. The UK is helped by a surging services surplus and also a pick-up in investment income from UK portfolios invested overseas. Nevertheless, G

September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech

August 28, 2026 4:19 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf

September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speech

August 28, 2026 4:18 PM UTC

After the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it appears that failing to tighten in September would put Fed credibility at risk, unless we see some very soft data from the August non-farm payroll and CPI. The key sentence came near the end of his speech. “We must be confident that underlying inf