Americas First: New National Security Strategy

The new U.S. national security strategy (NSS) is causing a difference of opinion.  Some see it as current Trump/MAGA thinking, which will change through time. Others see it as accelerating a shift in strategy under the Trump administration towards a more isolationist U.S. in the future.    

 Figure 1: U.S. Troops Mainly in Japan, Germany and S Korea

Source: Department of Defense

The new U.S. NSS differs significantly from the 2017 priorities under the first Trump administration.  Key points to note include

·       China and others no longer great power competition.  2017 saw China being viewed as a potential great power that needed to be restrained.  This has now pivoted and China is no longer regarded as a threat to the global world order, but rather a major economic competitor.  Trump’s current preference for a trade deal with China appears to be the key priority.  The question is whether this is a current Trump obsession that will change through time of whether it means less of a U.S. military build up in Asia.  It is worth watching the upcoming Pentagon military strategy and whether this involves a switch of excess troops from Europe to the Americas as well as Asia.  However, U.S. defense secretary Hegseth is already embracing the new NSS and signaling a shift to the Americas (here).  Most overseas U.S. troops are in Germany, Japan and S Korea (Figure 1) and the Hegseth has previously talked about a Europe to Asia switch. Meanwhile, Russia and N Korea no longer appear to be enemies under Trump’s NSS. 

·       Americas first.  The new NSS places emphasis on Trump and Maga hot topics for the mid-term elections on the U.S.’s borders.  Priority is given to halting mass migration, hurting organized crime and curtailing hostile foreign incursion.  Whether this is a political wish list or areas that extra military and other resources will be directed towards is unclear.  Additionally, though no preference is expressed over which governments to work with, Trump and MAGA prefer right wing government like Argentina more than Brazil – though Mexico’s left wing Sheinbaum so far having worked well with Trump. 

·       Taiwan.  Taiwan appears to get U.S. support in the new NSS as the report notes that “deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch (more U.S. military power than China), is a priority”.  However, elsewhere the U.S. now would not support rather than opposing unilateral change in the Taiwan straits. Additionally, fears remain that Trump could shift U.S. policy in any grand trade deal with China, by coming out in opposition to Taiwan independence or diluting the strategic ambiguity policy. 

·       Europe needs to copy MAGA.  The NSS reemphasised all the MAGA themes that Europe is under threat from within due to cultural identify being undermined by the EU and left wing thinking.  This is the message delivered to Europe earlier this year by VP Vance. The NSS would obviously prefer a shift to the hard right to achieve this goal.  Even so, European politicians have initially rejected the NSS interference in domestic issues, while Trump has also been friendly with Europe after the NATO agreement in the summer for countries to scale up to 5% of GDP.  However, the U.S. is soon expected to announce details of large scale troop withdrawals from Europe, which largely reverse Biden’s 20k 2022 troop surge being reversed.  Moreover, on Ukraine Trump is more interested in peace and a peace prize than keeping Europe on board.  Trump’s transactional relationship with Europe will likely continue for the next 2 years. 

The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does reflect a shift in Republican attitudes away from the U.S. being a global policeman to a less interventionist power.  One key question is whether the 2028 election could see a MAGA candidate winning and solidify a more isolationist U.S. stance.