Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion

May 11, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda

May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)

May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core

May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin

U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure

April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger

April 29, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Big EM: Diverging Fiscal Trends

April 28, 2026 12:35 PM UTC

·       EM government bond spreads are controlled as 2nd round inflation effects are likely to be less than 2022, due to less buoyant domestic demand/slacker labour markets and less global supply chain pressure ex oil/oil products.  Brazil is expected to cut rates and others will likely not

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger

April 21, 2026 5:31 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026

April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

·       Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,

DM Central Bank Signals Awaited

April 15, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

·       Fed/ECB and BOE meetings will likely see concern over the potential 2nd round inflation effects from the Iran war, but forecasts seeing inflation coming down in 2027 and no imminent signals of tightening from the ECB/BOE – our baseline remains for easing later in the year, as energy

U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief

April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

2-Week Ceasefire, Then?

April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC

·       The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll.  While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war.  The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w

U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side

April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued

April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend

March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: The Iran War Shock

March 26, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact on Asia depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  
·       India GDP growth has been revised down slightly

EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm

March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

·       EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by

DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026

March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th

Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q2 2026

March 25, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February

March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would

Commodities Outlook: The War in Action

March 24, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

Oil markets in 2026 have been extremely volatile due to the conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Under our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here), we project WTI to average between USD 65 and 70 by year-end. In an alternative scenario of a prolonged multi-month conflict, pri

U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow

March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

•    The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?

March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war.  The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r

U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue

March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC

While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue.  U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c

U.S. Q4 GDP revised down, Savings revised up, Core PCE Prices make a strong start to 2026

March 13, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a broad based downward revision to Q4 GDP to 0.7% from 1.4%. January personal income, personal spending and core PCE prices all rose by 0.4%, net close to expectations, though upward revisions to savings reduce downside cons

BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?

March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change.  But while the MPC as a wh

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated

March 10, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy.  Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%.  CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.

U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat

March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC

February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive

March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou

Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated

March 3, 2026 7:30 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy.  Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%.  CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive

February 26, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou

GBP: Foreign Investor Flows

February 23, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Inbound inflows into the UK have been solid in the last few years attracted by yield pick-up and fiscal consolidation for gilts and cheap comparable valuations in UK equities. UK BOP data suggests something would have to go really wrong to stop inbound portfolio flows e.g. UK recessio

Q4 U.S. GDP: Lower Than Expected

February 20, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

Lower than expected Q4 GDP was mainly caused by the temporary government shutdown (-5.1% annualised), while consumer spending remained reasonable at 2.4% and AI related spending helping parts of fixed investment. However, income growth remains lower than consumption and we see this slowing the U.S.

U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021

February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter

Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%

February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 12, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August. 

U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease

February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger

UK Gilt Vigilantes and Politics

February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

•    The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor.  Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre

February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera