Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track

September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

U.S. Outlook: Growth Overly Dependent on AI

September 22, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

•    The US economy is currently showing signs of acceleration with business investment strong led by AI and consumer spending outperforming real disposable income, in part because of AI-assisted strength in equities. We expect continued strength in business investment though a modest slowing

Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q4 2026

September 22, 2026 12:14 PM UTC

Our latest quarterly Technical Analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship

September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative

EM Money Supply: Trends Diverge from Policy Rates

September 16, 2026 11:15 AM UTC

·       M2 growth in China remains weak (pre 2015 the trend had been double digit), despite the low level of nominal and real policy rates.  This reflects credit demand and supply problems. M2 growth will likely remain restrained by Chinese standards and act as a drag of nominal and real GDP

Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears

September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

·       For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year.  Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

September 10, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk

September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater.  Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

September 7, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Our new baseline (60%) is for a new ceasefire deal into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 that allows more shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We feel that economic pressure on Iran remains intense and that Iran will want to lift the U.S. blockade on its energy shipments and export revenue.  The Trump

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call

September 4, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call

September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

September 3, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

August 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

August 31, 2026 1:55 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

US Payrolls ‘breakevens’: Why zero is the new 200

August 5, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

July 31, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

July 31, 2026 3:51 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government

July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net

U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government

July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 29, 2026 12:22 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, with net exports and inventories still looking set to act as negatives after June data released yesterday. 

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 29, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, with net exports and inventories still looking set to act as negatives after June data released yesterday. 

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

July 28, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

July 28, 2026 3:49 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de