From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

US Payrolls ‘breakevens’: Why zero is the new 200

August 5, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

July 31, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

July 31, 2026 3:51 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government

July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net

U.S. Q2 GDP strong outside net exports, inventories and government

July 30, 2026 1:28 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5% annualized is weaker than the market expected but in line with our 1.4% call. The detail is also broadly in line with our expectations, healthy excluding negatives from inventories and net exports, with final sales to domestic buyers (GDP ex inventories and net

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 29, 2026 12:22 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, with net exports and inventories still looking set to act as negatives after June data released yesterday. 

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 29, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, with net exports and inventories still looking set to act as negatives after June data released yesterday. 

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

July 28, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

July 28, 2026 3:49 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Margin Call - Does Margin Debt Really Predict Market Crashes?

July 27, 2026 11:31 AM UTC

·       US margin debt has reached USD1.5tn, the kind of huge round figure milestone that is always going to get a fair amount of attention, especially with the market focused on risk and valuations. Should this number be sounding the alarm? The balanced answer is probably partially, though i

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 17, 2026 5:13 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, though there is still uncertainty over June data for trade and inventories, which we expect to act as negatives in the quarter as a whole, while assuming some improvement in their June data. 

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Strong domestic demand but weakness in net exports and inventories

July 17, 2026 5:12 PM UTC

We expect a modest Q2 GDP increase of 1.4% annualized, though there is still uncertainty over June data for trade and inventories, which we expect to act as negatives in the quarter as a whole, while assuming some improvement in their June data. 

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core

July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core

July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks

July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning. 
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Commodities Outlook: The War and Its Reversal

June 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

The US-Iran memorandum marks a turn, but a fragile one. We attach 80% probability to the Strait of Hormuz reopening over June/July and staying open through 2027, and 20% to a second-half reclosure if Israel-Hezbollah tensions draw Iran back in (here). Most of the war premium has already unwound, and

Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q3 2026

June 23, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly Technical Analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

DM and EM FX Outlook: Cross-Currents for H2 and 2027

June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ

U.S. Outlook: Consumers Looking Vulnerable

June 22, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

•    The US economy is showing resilience with strength in investment offsetting a gradual slowing in consumption, though consumer spending, which is running well ahead of real disposable income, looks set to slow further. This is likely to see the economy slow in the second half of 2026 even

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux

June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario.   In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts.  10yr