Published: 2025-10-23T13:07:45.000Z

Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

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While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however possible the shutdown will compromise accuracy of the release. Even before the shutdown, recent CPI releases had seen increasing numbers of inputs estimated to reduced staffing. 

We expect a 0.4% increase overall in September CPI with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was rounded up from 0.38% and the core rate was only marginally below 0.35% before rounding.

We expect a 4.0% rise in gasoline prices, inflated by seasonal adjustments, to lead a 2.2% increase in energy. We expect a second straight firm rise in food, 0.4% versus 0.5%, with tariffs playing a part. We expect tariffs to also play a part in a second straight 0.3% increase in commodities ex food and energy.

We expect services excluding energy to come in below 0.3% before rounding, which would be below recent trend, with a 0.3% rise in August having followed a 0.4% increase in July. Components likely to correct below trend after strong August gains are air fares, which rose by 5.9% in August, and shelter, which rose by 0.4% in August inflated by above trend gains of 0.4% in owners’ equivalent rent and 2.3% in lodging away from home.

We expect yr/yr growth ex food and energy of 3.1% for a third straight month. We expect yr/yr growth in overall CPI to catch up with the core rate for the first time since February 2023, rising to 3.1% from 2.9% in August. 

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Analyst Declaration
I,Dave Sloan, the Senior Economist declare that the views expressed herein are mine and are clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. They have not been influenced by any relationship, either a personal relationship of mine or a relationship of the firm, to any entity described or referred to herein nor to any client of Continuum Economics nor has any inducement been received in relation to those views. I further declare that in the preparation and publication of this report I have at all times followed all relevant Continuum Economics compliance protocols including those reasonably seeking to prevent the receipt or misuse of material non-public information.