Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable

March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt

March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet

Bank of Canada - Uncertainty Heightened Further but a Dovish Leaning

March 18, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.25% as expected, but with uncertainty heightened still further removed from its statement a reference to the current policy being appropriate provided the economy evolves as expected. Uncertainty on policy has increased too. However, the BoC has taken a more dovish

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Downside growth risks, upside inflation risks

March 18, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged with the Iran war increasing uncertainty still further, but sound more dovish on the economic outlook. 

Canada February CPI - Getting closer to target, but upside risks in March from energy

March 16, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

February Canadian CPI at 1.8% yr/yr from 2.3% has come in softer than expected with the assistance of the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, though BoC core rates point to underlying slowing. March data looks set to get a lift from energy prices, but the underlying picture is getting closer t

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels

March 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement. 

Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message

March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels

March 5, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement. 

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024

February 18, 2026 2:46 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to

U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's

February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.

Bank of Canada Minutes from January 28 - Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected

February 11, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 28 meeting which provide no major surprises. The meeting saw rates left unchanged at 2.25% but noted heightened uncertainty, which the minutes also emphasize, with steady policy conditional on the economy evolving as expected.

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024

February 10, 2026 7:16 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to

U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January

February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.

U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates

February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

·        Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate But Uncertainty Heightened

January 28, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and continues to see the current policy rate as appropriate, Governor Macklem stating updated economic forecasts have not changed significantly since October. However in highlighting heightened uncertainty the statement appears to leave ri

Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. November Trade Balance - Narrower October deficit looks unsustainable

January 20, 2026 5:03 PM UTC

We expect a November trade deficit of $47.0bn, up from October’s $29.35bn which was the lowest since June 2009 and which looks unsustainably low, but still slightly narrower than September’s $48.14bn, which was itself the narrowest since March 2020.

Bank of Canada Preview for January 28: Rate level still appropriate but uncertainty high

January 20, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% on January 28 and reiterate that rates are at about the right level if the economy evolves as expected, while adding that uncertainty remains elevated. We expect that the next BoC move will be a modest tightening, but this will

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys stronger at the start of 2026

January 15, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

The latest US data suggests a stronger start to 2026, with initial jobless claims very low at 198k from 207k in a week not including a holiday and is thus less prone to a surprise, and also positive manufacturing surveys from the Empire State at 7.7 and the Philly Fed at 12.6, both contrasting negat

Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September

January 7, 2026 3:58 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September

January 2, 2026 3:40 PM UTC

We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announceme

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Canada November CPI - Underlying trend has slowed

December 15, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

November Canadian CPI at 2.2% has held steady at October’s pace, and is slightly weaker than expected. The Bank of Canada’s core are are on balance weaker, with CPI-Median and CPI-Trim falling to 2.8% from 3.0%, though CPI-Common (less important to the BoC) edged up to 2.8% from 2.7%.

U.S. Initial Claims rebound from holiday drop, September trade deficit falls on surge in gold exports

December 11, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

After a sharply below trend outcome last week of 192k (revised from 191k) in a week that included the Thanksgiving holiday and may have seen seasonal adjustment problems, initial claims have rebounded above trend to 236k. The 2-week average is 214k, slightly below the 218k seen two weeks ago and the

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data

December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause

December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ

Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative

November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak

USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump

November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

•    Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters.  This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo

Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive

November 26, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

U.S. August trade deficit slips back after bounce in July, still in correction from inflated pre-tariff deficits

November 19, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

August’s delayed trade deficit of $59.55bn is narrower than expected, down significantly from July’s $78.5bn, but still marginally above June’s $59.09bn. Despite July’s bounce, the deficit remains in a correction from the inflated pre-tariff levels of Q1 which saw a record deficit of $136.42

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall