The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track

September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

Canada August CPI - Near consensus, but upside risks building

September 14, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

August’s Canadian CPI was stable at 3.0% yr/yr as expected with the Bank of Canada’s core rates broadly stable too. However the seasonally adjusted ex food and energy CPI (not one of the BoC’s core rates) saw a fourth straight 0.3% increase, and its yr/yr rate is picking up.  Inflationary ris

Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy

August 28, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy

August 28, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

Canada Q2 GDP shows strength in exports and domestic demand

August 28, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP increase of 3.3% annualized is in line with expectations but the breakdown is more positive than we expected with a 3.9% increase in domestic demand. A positive contribution from net exports added 4.4% to GDP but this was more than fully offset by a sharp negative 0f 4.9% from inve

Preview: Due August 28 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports

August 27, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 3.3% annualized, in line with what monthly data is implying, assuming the preliminary estimate for a 0.2% increase in June is accurate and gains of 0.3% in May and 0.6% in April are unrevised. This will mark a return to growth after two straight negative quar

Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute

August 24, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

The immediate economic impact of the collapse of the US-Canada trade talks is likely to be modest, but not insignificant in the case of Canada.  Where things move from here is uncertain, with Canadian retaliation due to be implemented on September 8, and risk of further mutual escalations after tha

U.S. Initial Claims stabilizing, August Philly Fed extremely strong

August 20, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

Initial claims at 206k in the survey week for August’s non-farm payroll are down from 212k in the preceding week but appear to be stabilizing after slipping in July. August’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 47.4 is very strong indeed, suggesting July’s reading of 41.4 was not overstated as m

Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate

August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t

Canada July CPI - Like the economy, picking up from recent core weakness

August 17, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

July’s Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% is slightly stronger than expected, with the Bank of Canada’s core rates on balance slightly firmer, if still close to target for CPI-Median and CPI-Trim. The data suggests underlying inflation is about where the BoC wants, and may reduce f

Preview: Due August 28 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports

August 4, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 3.3% annualized, in line with what monthly data is implying, assuming the preliminary estimate for a 0.2% increase in June is accurate and gains of 0.3% in May and 0.6% in April are unrevised. This will mark a return to growth after two straight negative quar

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

Canada: BoC's Macklem - More confident on Canadian economy, in no hurry to move rates

July 15, 2026 2:05 PM UTC

After leaving rates unchanged BoC Governor Macklem is expressing increased confidence in Canada's economy but does not suggest any urgency to tighten policy. 

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Happy with current policy, balanced on AI

July 1, 2026 1:44 PM UTC

Comments from BoC Governor Macklem suggests policy is likely to be left steady on July 15. His tone on AI is balanced.

Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks

July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning. 
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l

Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade

June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen

Bank of Canada Minutes from June 10 - Balanced tone, and energy risks have fallen since the meeting

June 24, 2026 7:24 PM UTC

Minutes from the Bank of Canada meeting from June 10 do not provide many surprises, but confirm a fairly balanced tone that was evident after the meeting.  The balanced tone does not however mean that policy will remain on hold, with high uncertainty meaning that risks could shift and the BoC agree

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

Canada May CPI - Upside suprise corrects April's downside surprise

June 22, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

May Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.2% yr/yr from 2.8% is stronger than expected, offsetting a clear downside surprise in April, though the Bank of Canada’s core rates are mostly stable and close to the BoC’s 2.0% target, so we do not believe these numbers will cause significant alarm at the BoC,

U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum

June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.

Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone

June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC

While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Holding rates balances risks

June 10, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchnaged as expected. The BoC noted that oil was higher than it expected in April but the overall tone was balanced. 

April US trade deficit shows a fairly stable picture, Canada trade balance shows a stronger surplus

June 9, 2026 1:18 PM UTC

April’s US trade deficit of $55.9bn is a little narrower than the market expected but less of an improvement from March than expected, with March’s deficit being revised lower, to $56.6bn from $60.3bn. The deficit has not changed much over the last four months, and appears to be stabilizing at a

Bank of Canada Preview for June 10: A little less hawkish despite continued energy risk

June 4, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 10 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. This meeting will contain no quarterly Monetary Policy Report and hence no updated forecasts. However, since the last meeting on April 29 GDP and core inflation have come in softer than expected, but elevated energy

Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2

May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint

Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce

May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr

U.S. Initial Claims, May Philly Fed, April Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed data gives no clear signals of strength or weakness

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed, initial claims in line with expectations and showing signs of stabilizing at a still low level. May’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey is weaker than expected but with positive 6-month expectations, both on activity and prices.  April housing starts and permits are on the

Canada April CPI - Excluding energy inflation is falling

May 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

April Canadian CPI is clearly softer than expected, with the acceleration to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.5% due to a drop in the year ago base due to the abolition of the carbon tax. Current energy strength is being offset by weakness elsewhere. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates are all softer, with CPI

Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce

May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr

Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed

May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold

March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices

May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February. 

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus

May 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus

April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy appropriate if economy evolves in line with baseline

April 29, 2026 1:59 PM UTC

The BoC assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs remain at current levels. Policy is seen as appropriate under the baseline.

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low

April 23, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Initial claims at 214k are up from 208k and slightly higher than expected, in data that covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. Trend however remains subdued.

Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock

April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, price indices mostly firmer but not alarming

April 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

The latest US data suggests the economy so far is holding up well to the oil shock, with initial claims low at 207k from 218k and the April Philly Fed at 26.7 from 18.1, reaching its strongest since January 2025. Price data is mostly firmer, but not alarmingly so.

2-Week Ceasefire, Then?

April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC

·       The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll.  While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war.  The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w

Bank of Canada Minutes from March 18 - Too early to judge impact of war, tone far from hawkish

April 1, 2026 6:05 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 18 meeting, which left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected though we felt that the tone of the statement was somewhat dovish. The minutes show that the BoC felt that it was too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, thou

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar