Bank of Canada Preview for July 15: Reduced energy risk may see more attention on trade

June 30, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on July 15 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The meeting will take place with inflationary risks coming from the Middle East having faded somewhat and escalation of trade tensions with the US a significant risk. This could lead to a dovish lean to the statemen

Bank of Canada Minutes from June 10 - Balanced tone, and energy risks have fallen since the meeting

June 24, 2026 7:24 PM UTC

Minutes from the Bank of Canada meeting from June 10 do not provide many surprises, but confirm a fairly balanced tone that was evident after the meeting.  The balanced tone does not however mean that policy will remain on hold, with high uncertainty meaning that risks could shift and the BoC agree

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

Canada May CPI - Upside suprise corrects April's downside surprise

June 22, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

May Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.2% yr/yr from 2.8% is stronger than expected, offsetting a clear downside surprise in April, though the Bank of Canada’s core rates are mostly stable and close to the BoC’s 2.0% target, so we do not believe these numbers will cause significant alarm at the BoC,

U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum

June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.

Bank of Canada - On hold with balanced tone

June 10, 2026 3:21 PM UTC

While recognizing that oil is around $10 per barrel higher than was assumed in its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone to the statement. As long as core inflation does not start showing feed through from energy the BoC looks likely to a

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Holding rates balances risks

June 10, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchnaged as expected. The BoC noted that oil was higher than it expected in April but the overall tone was balanced. 

April US trade deficit shows a fairly stable picture, Canada trade balance shows a stronger surplus

June 9, 2026 1:18 PM UTC

April’s US trade deficit of $55.9bn is a little narrower than the market expected but less of an improvement from March than expected, with March’s deficit being revised lower, to $56.6bn from $60.3bn. The deficit has not changed much over the last four months, and appears to be stabilizing at a

Bank of Canada Preview for June 10: A little less hawkish despite continued energy risk

June 4, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 10 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. This meeting will contain no quarterly Monetary Policy Report and hence no updated forecasts. However, since the last meeting on April 29 GDP and core inflation have come in softer than expected, but elevated energy

Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2

May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint

Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce

May 28, 2026 3:08 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr

U.S. Initial Claims, May Philly Fed, April Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed data gives no clear signals of strength or weakness

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed, initial claims in line with expectations and showing signs of stabilizing at a still low level. May’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey is weaker than expected but with positive 6-month expectations, both on activity and prices.  April housing starts and permits are on the

Canada April CPI - Excluding energy inflation is falling

May 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

April Canadian CPI is clearly softer than expected, with the acceleration to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.5% due to a drop in the year ago base due to the abolition of the carbon tax. Current energy strength is being offset by weakness elsewhere. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates are all softer, with CPI

Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce

May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr

Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed

May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold

March US trade deficit sees a modest increase, Canada trade balance moves into surplus on higher export prices

May 5, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

March’s US trade deficit of $60.3bn was a 3-month high and up from $57.8bn in February. Exports rose by 2.0% and imports rise by 2.3%, both extending on gains of over 4% in February. 

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus

May 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus

April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy appropriate if economy evolves in line with baseline

April 29, 2026 1:59 PM UTC

The BoC assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs remain at current levels. Policy is seen as appropriate under the baseline.

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low

April 23, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Initial claims at 214k are up from 208k and slightly higher than expected, in data that covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. Trend however remains subdued.

Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock

April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, price indices mostly firmer but not alarming

April 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

The latest US data suggests the economy so far is holding up well to the oil shock, with initial claims low at 207k from 218k and the April Philly Fed at 26.7 from 18.1, reaching its strongest since January 2025. Price data is mostly firmer, but not alarmingly so.

2-Week Ceasefire, Then?

April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC

·       The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll.  While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war.  The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w

Bank of Canada Minutes from March 18 - Too early to judge impact of war, tone far from hawkish

April 1, 2026 6:05 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 18 meeting, which left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected though we felt that the tone of the statement was somewhat dovish. The minutes show that the BoC felt that it was too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, thou

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable

March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt

March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet

Bank of Canada - Uncertainty Heightened Further but a Dovish Leaning

March 18, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.25% as expected, but with uncertainty heightened still further removed from its statement a reference to the current policy being appropriate provided the economy evolves as expected. Uncertainty on policy has increased too. However, the BoC has taken a more dovish

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Downside growth risks, upside inflation risks

March 18, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged with the Iran war increasing uncertainty still further, but sound more dovish on the economic outlook. 

Canada February CPI - Getting closer to target, but upside risks in March from energy

March 16, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

February Canadian CPI at 1.8% yr/yr from 2.3% has come in softer than expected with the assistance of the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, though BoC core rates point to underlying slowing. March data looks set to get a lift from energy prices, but the underlying picture is getting closer t

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels

March 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement. 

Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message

March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels

March 5, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement. 

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024

February 18, 2026 2:46 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to

U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's

February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.

Bank of Canada Minutes from January 28 - Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected

February 11, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 28 meeting which provide no major surprises. The meeting saw rates left unchanged at 2.25% but noted heightened uncertainty, which the minutes also emphasize, with steady policy conditional on the economy evolving as expected.

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024

February 10, 2026 7:16 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to