Preview: Due January 8 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Exports to correct from stronger September
We expect an October trade deficit of $60.5bn, up from September’s $52.8bn which was the narrowest since June 2020. The deficit would be marginally above August’s $59.3bn, while remaining well below July’s $77.2bn and March’s record $136.4bn when imports surged ahead of the tariff announcement.
We expect exports to fall by 2.1% after a 3.0% increase in September while imports rise by 0.5%, similar to a 0.6% increase in September. This would keep trend in both series marginally positive. There will be no advance goods data release this month.
We expect goods imports, and service exports and imports to all rise by 0.5%, which would leave the services surplus marginally higher. However we expect a 3.5% fall in goods exports after a 4.9% increase in September. Boeing data suggests a decline in aircraft exports while a fall in October manufacturing output, led by autos, also hints at a weaker month for exports.
