Outlook

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July 02, 2024

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Webinar Recording June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

July 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

June 26, 2024

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

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June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our June Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

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Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q3 2024
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June 25, 2024 9:08 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly technical analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

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EMFX Outlook: USD Strength to Ebb with Different EM Impact
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

 We see Fed rate cuts from September starting to soften USD strength into year end and 2025.  Beneficiaries will include currencies with inflation moving towards target and high real rates or, alternatively, undervalued currencies. This should benefit the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Indonesian Rupiah

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Equities Outlook: Choppy U.S. and Outperformance Elsewhere
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

 •    U.S. equities are overvalued and waiting for earnings growth to catch-up, which leaves the market choppy, directionless and vulnerable to intermittent 5% corrections. Our forecast slowing of the U.S. economy before Fed rate cuts or nervousness about the post-election prospects are potenti

June 24, 2024

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LatAm Outlook: Pausing the Cuts
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 6:00 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust Agricultural growth will not repeat in 2023 while Mexico is on the limit of growing due to a

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EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries we see a steady easing process from the Fed from September, which can allow 2yr yields to fall consistently.  However, the decline in H2 2024 will be slower at the long-end from traditional yield curve steepening pressures and then we see fiscal stress in H1 2025 unde

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Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

·       ·       In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed.  This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and

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DM FX Outlook: Politics rears its head
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD strength in Q2 on the back of a less dovish view of the Fed is unlikely to extend over the rest of the year. The JPY remains exceptionally cheap and has potential to recover sharply if risk appetite weakens. A slower JPY recovery is likely if lower inflation leads

June 21, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

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Japan Outlook: Slow but not Steady
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.4% as private consumption contracted stronger in Q1 2024 from moderating but still persistent inflationary pressure. We forecast consumption to gradually recover throughout the rest of 2024 as real wage turned from negative to positive yet

June 20, 2024

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U.S. Outlook: Economy Starting to Lose Momentum
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 6:17 PM UTC

•    The U.S. economy is starting to lose momentum after a surprisingly strong second half of 2023, and we expect the loss of momentum to become more apparent in the second half of 2024, causing a slowing in employment growth from its current strong pace. We expect inflation to resume a gradua

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Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
Paying Article

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf

June 19, 2024

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China Outlook: 2024 on Track, but 2025 Headwinds
Paying Article

June 19, 2024 9:35 AM UTC

Public investment and industrial production in high tech and renewables are helping to support growth and should get the economy close to 5% in 2024.  However, underneath the surface, consumption is slowing, private sector investment and employment growth is sluggish, and residential property inves

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 27, 2024

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Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 11:06 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 26, 2024

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Chartbook: Quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities For Q2 2024
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities/Commodities for Q2 2024 are now available, see resources at the end.  

March 25, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

·     Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how

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DM FX Outlook: JPY weakness to reverse
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 12:21 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: Q1 has seen a generally seen a rangebound USD against riskier currencies, but JPY weakness has resumed in spite of a BoJ rate hike and narrowing yield spreads. This reflects continued positive risk sentiment in developed market equities, but we still expect JPY strength t

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

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Equities Outlook: Cyclical Recovery Versus Structural Headwinds
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

 ·        In the U.S., a tug of war between momentum and U.S. exceptionalism on the one side versus valuations and any deviations from the U.S. goldilocks scenario now means volatility and a risk of a correction.  We feel that the U.S. equity market recovery can push onto 5250 for the S&P5

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Japan Outlook: Beginning of A New Era?
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.8% from +0.9% because private consumption is now expected to contract in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.1% from +1.7% to address the stronger wage hike Japanese unions secured.

March 22, 2024

LatAm Outlook: Getting Deeper in the Cutting Cycle
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 7:04 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates seen in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust agricultural growth will not repeat in 2024, while Mexico growth is restrained by a tigh

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arriving and Positive Yield Curves
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

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Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

·        In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e

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U.S. Outlook: Fed to Ease as Economy Gradually Slows
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March 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

•    The U.S. economy has continued to see growth surprising to the upside supported in particular by consumer spending. While the momentum of the second half of 2023 will be difficult to sustain the economy now looks poised for a soft landing, with risk that continued resilience in the econom

March 21, 2024

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Commodities Outlook: A Promising Horizon
Paying Article

March 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

March 20, 2024

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China Outlook: The Struggle to Hit 5% Growth
Paying Article

March 20, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means some of the old engines of growth are not firing.  Some additional fiscal stimulus will likely

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here. 
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.  
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios 
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing

January 02, 2024

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:

December 20, 2023

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Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

December 20, 2023 7:31 AM UTC

We forecast across 23 countries annual and quarterly. Our annual forecasts go out to 2028, while our quarterly forecasts are now updated out to Q4 2025. The forecasts are consistent with the December Global Outlook ‘Rate Cuts Into 2024’ published on 18th December 2023. 
The file contains nine sh

December 19, 2023

Chartbook: Quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities For Q1 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 5:10 PM UTC

Continuum Economic technical analysis have a clear negative view on the USD, while also looking for further yield decline.  Equities are more mixed for the Q1 outlook. See resources at the end.  

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 3:15 PM UTC

Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
DM FX Outlook: The Year of the Yen (here)
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials (here)
Technical Analysis Quarterly Chartbook (here)

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EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 9:59 AM UTC

·        In spot terms, we see the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) rising against the USD as Fed rate cuts narrow interest rate differentials and a move away from an overvalued USD occurs.  Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be stable against the USD

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DM FX Outlook: 2024 - The Year of the Yen
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 9:06 AM UTC

Figure 1: Real effective exchange rates
Source: BIS
JPY weakness has been dramatic
The JPY has fallen more than 30% in real effective terms against other major currencies in the last 3 years, as a result of the rise in inflation seen in the U.S. and Europe and the consequent rise in interest rates in t

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Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 9:00 AM UTC

Macroeconomic and Policy Dynamics
Japanese headline inflation continues to moderate throughout 2023 as post COVID pent up demand fades and as supply chain disruption dissipates still further. However, the pace of moderation has been on a rocky road for food inflation (record chicken culling on bird f

December 18, 2023

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC

·     Uncertainty still prevails around this central view.  The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries.  We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Mixed Prospects in 2024  
In H1-2024, much like in 2023, the emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform other emerging markets and display notable resilience in comparison to develope

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EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
EMEA Dynamics:  Inflationary Concerns Remain High
EMEA economies continue to be squeezed by macroeconomic problems such as elevated inflation and financial pressures. We think country specific factors, geopolitics,

December 15, 2023

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Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Common Themes
There continue to be clear cross currents across Western Europe’s economies that may continue into 2024 and possibly beyond, all inter-related.  Firstly, while we have made little alteration to the 2024 outlooks for all four countries, they remain very

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LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 12:25 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Brazil: Switching Back to Slow Growth?
Brazil growth has finally begun to decelerate (here), as the growth in the third quarter dropped to 0.1% (q/q). However, growth for 2023 is expected to stand at 3.2% (Yr/Yr) which is quite a bit higher th

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Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC

•    Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202

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Equities Outlook: Rate Cuts To Help in 2024
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 11:00 AM UTC

Equities Outlook: Rate Cuts To Help in 2024
·        For other DM equity markets, EZ and UK are undervalued in contrast to the U.S., but are in or close to recessions and economic recovery will likely be weak and disappointing.  Though the ECB and BOE will likely ease in Q2 with the Fed, we

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DM Rates Outlook: Front End Favored
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 10:19 AM UTC

•    EZ debt yields will also see a swing back towards a positive shaped yield curve.  Gradual ECB rate cuts will translate into a persistent decline in 2yr yields in 2024, but slower in 2025 as the market will be uncertain about the terminal policy rate and the ECB forward guidance will like