SARB Reduced Key Rate to 6.75% Following Favorable Inflation Outlook

November 20, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% during the MPC on November 20 owing to moderate inflation, stronger ZAR, few power cuts (loadshedding) in Q3, balanced growth risks, and lower oil prices. The MPC decision was unanimous. SARB governor Kganyago ment

South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September

October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed

September 24, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

SARB Holds Rate Stable at 7.0% to Bring the Inflation Down to New 3% Anchor and Assess Impacts of Earlier Cuts

September 18, 2025 6:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the policy rate at 7.0% during the MPC on September 18 as annual inflation hit 3.3% YoY in August which is above new inflation anchor coupled with surged core inflation. SARB governor Kganyago said on September 18 that MPC expects headline inflatio

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

September 3, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2

August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat

South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June

August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m

EM Rates: Domestic Fundamentals Dominate

August 7, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Once trade is agreed with the U.S., the good fundamentals actually argue for a 10yr Mexico-U.S. spread close to 400bps and this is our favored strategic risk reward for big EM government bonds. In Brazil a case can be made for a 12.75% policy rate end 2026 and 10% in 2027, but this could only mean 1

SARB Cuts Key Rate to 7.0% Given Subdued Inflation; Lower CPI Goal Announced

July 31, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite the uncertainty around United States tariffs and rising domestic food inflation, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the policy rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the MPC on July 31 as annual inflation hit 3.0% YoY in June coupled with eased core inflation, and a relatively sta

Food Glorious Food

July 28, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       Global food prices should see small increases in the future, as production continues to rise broadly in line with increasing demand driven by population and a rising consumption per person in EM countries.  However, China will remain dependent on food imports given it has limited roo

EM Currencies with a USD Downtrend

July 24, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       BRL, ZAR and MXN have been helped by FX carry trades and bond inflows on still wide interest rate differentials.  However, actual reciprocal tariff risks are high for all three countries and a wave of profit-taking could be seen.  Elsewhere, though we see a U.S./China trade deal by

Food Prices Lifted South Africa Inflation to 3.0% YoY in June

July 23, 2025 12:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on July 23 that annual inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in June from 2.8% in May as food prices reached a 15-month high coupled with elevated restaurant and health services prices. The inflation is still within South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)

South Africa Opposes Trump’s 30% Tariffs

July 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After a 90-day reprieve, U.S. president Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would implement 30% additional tariffs against South Africa-origin products from August 1. Despite President Ramaphosa opposed what he calls the unilateral trade tariffs by the U.S., and emphasized that Sout

South Africa: Coalition Under Pressure After President Ramaphosa Fires DA Deputy

July 2, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed

June 25, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

•    EM currencies face cross currents on a spot basis.  The USD downtrend against DM currencies can be a positive for undervalued or strong EM currencies.  This could benefit the Brazilian Real (BRL), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), though moves will be choppy with occasiona

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

EMEA Outlook: Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics Continue to Dominate

June 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food prices, and global uncertainties. We see growth to be 1.2% and 1.7%

South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

June 4, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

Moderate GDP Growth for South Africa in Q1: 0.1% QoQ, 0.8% YoY

June 3, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew moderately by 0.1% QoQ and 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2025. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on June 3, despite growth in agriculture, transport and finance, a strain on the mining and manufacturing industri

SA MPC Review: SARB Cuts Key Rate to 7.25% on May 29 Given Subdued Inflation

May 29, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the policy rate to 7.25% during the MPC on May 29 highlighting that annual inflation remained below SARB’s target range of 3%-6% hitting 2.8% YoY in April coupled with eased core inflation in April and a stronger Rand. We think the recent with

SA MPC Preview: No Rate Cuts Are Expected on May 29 Due to Uncertainties

May 21, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 2.8% YoY in April due to higher food prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely hold the rate constant at 7.5% during the next MPC scheduled on May 29 given plenty of upside risks to inflation including unpredict

As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April

May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy

SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in April

May 14, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, we foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 2.8-2.9% in April, which will be announced on May 21. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, return of power cuts (loadshedding), and

South Africa’s Automotive and Agricultural Sectors Will Be Tested Amid Trump’s Additional Tariffs

May 6, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that the 31% U.S. additional tariffs on South African goods could still come into effect despite a 90-day reprieve from the U.S. president Trump, the threat is still alive as South African economy will be negatively impacted by tariffs partly nullifying the African G

USD Rebalancing: Some to EM?

April 24, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

Some portfolios rotations towards EM assets will likely be evident, as we see the USD decline is now extending and broadening.  However, flows will likely be selective, both given underwhelming EM performance in the last 5-10 years and the uncertainty over how much Trump will reduce reciprocal tari

South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March

April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar

SARB's Monetary Policy Review Highlights Concerns over the Horizon

April 15, 2025 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 15, uncertainties about the global economy, trade tensions and blurry domestic outlook have caused the scope for monetary policy easing had narrowed. In its biannual review of its monetary p

Nervous U.S. Long Term Asset Holders

April 15, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

   Overall, foreign equity investors can no longer count on U.S. exceptionalism and could face lower long-term corporate earnings growth, which at a minimum will likely slow net inflows.  Bond investors also face ongoing policy volatility, which likely means a need for an extra risk premium – t

Trade Deals with the U.S.: Pressures and Obstacles

April 10, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

Pressures to do trade deals include the weaker U.S. economy and higher inflation when it arrives/foreigners becoming nervous of their USD30trn plus holdings of U.S. securities and more crucially risks to Trump and GOP approval ratings from Republican voters. Obstacles to quick trade deals include Tr

Reciprocal Tariffs: The Hit To Other Countries

April 8, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 Overall, we are still assessing the effects on non U.S. countries from the tariffs being imposed by the U.S. via direct trade/business investment/currency and financial & monetary conditions swings.  The impact will be adverse to GDP, but for some major countries could be less than the U.S.  How

EMEA Economies Will Be Tested Amid U.S. Tariff Heat

April 7, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The impacts of U.S. additional tariffs announced on April 2 could likely have multifaceted impacts over EMEA countries. Relatively-low 10% tariffs could open new doors for Turkiye to capture a higher global market share if it can act quickly on trade diversification. We foresee the coun

U.S. Trade Surplus Countries: No Special Treatment?

March 31, 2025 9:04 AM UTC

Quick dilutions of tariffs or exemption will likely be slow in coming for countries that the U.S. has trade surpluses with, as the Trump administration are currently more focused on tariffs for tax revenue and trying to switch production back to the U.S. than trade deals.  Trade policy uncertainty

March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Car Tariffs Then Lenient Reciprocal Tariffs?

March 27, 2025 8:59 AM UTC

   The 25% tariffs on cars underlines that tariffs are not just about getting better trade deals, but in Trump’s view raising (tax) revenue and trying to shift production back to the U.S. Combined with other tariffs being implemented, plus policy uncertainty, we see a moderate overall hit from t

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

EMFX Outlook: Divergence versus the USD

March 26, 2025 9:16 AM UTC

EM currencies will be helped by the ongoing USD downtrend against DM currencies, but prospects also depend on relative inflation differentials versus the USD and starting point in terms of valuations.  The Brazilian Real (BRL), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) should all make modest s

EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

Trump Product and Reciprocal Tariffs

March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news.  Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment.  Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s

SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t