EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm

March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

·       EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by

EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,

South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments

March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (

South African Economy Grew by 1.1% in 2025 Supported by Stronger Agriculture, Trade and Finance Activities

March 10, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth figures on March 10. Following a revised 0.3% q/q expansion in Q3, the economy grew by 0.4% q/q (0.8% y/y) in Q4. For the full year, the economy expanded by 1.1%—its fastest pace in three years—supporte

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

March 6, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

Low Inflation and No Loadshedding Continue to Support South African GDP Growth

February 26, 2026 3:19 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q4 2025 GDP growth figures on March 3. Following a 0.5% q/q expansion in Q3 2025, we expect growth momentum to be sustained in Q4. This trajectory is supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, a power cuts (

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Strike Down

February 20, 2026 4:31 PM UTC

·        The 6-3 vote by the Supreme court and full ruling against reciprocal tariffs means that the Trump administration will likely resort to other tariffs for negotiating leverage.  However, the Trump administration will also pressure to codify existing trade framework deals that have be

South Africa Inflation Moderately Eased to 3.5% y/y in January

February 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on February 18 that annual inflation slightly edged down moderately to 3.5% y/y in January, driven by higher housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Annual core inflation came in at 3.4%

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

As We Expected, SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75%

January 30, 2026 6:31 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on January 29 due to inflationary risks such as food prices and rise in administered costs, such as electricity prices. The MPC decision was not unanimous. We think the SARB’s (new) 3% inflation t

South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December

January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe

South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December

January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath

January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·        A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help

December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

•    EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter.  We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

EMEA Outlook: Uncertainties Give Mixed Signals

December 16, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Upside risks to inflation remain such as, utility costs, and supply chain destructions. We see growth to be 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Risks to the growth

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

December 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022

December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

SARB Reduced Key Rate to 6.75% Following Favorable Inflation Outlook

November 20, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% during the MPC on November 20 owing to moderate inflation, stronger ZAR, few power cuts (loadshedding) in Q3, balanced growth risks, and lower oil prices. The MPC decision was unanimous. SARB governor Kganyago ment

South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September

October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed

September 24, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

SARB Holds Rate Stable at 7.0% to Bring the Inflation Down to New 3% Anchor and Assess Impacts of Earlier Cuts

September 18, 2025 6:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the policy rate at 7.0% during the MPC on September 18 as annual inflation hit 3.3% YoY in August which is above new inflation anchor coupled with surged core inflation. SARB governor Kganyago said on September 18 that MPC expects headline inflatio

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

September 3, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including South Africa.

South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2

August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat

South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June

August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m

EM Rates: Domestic Fundamentals Dominate

August 7, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Once trade is agreed with the U.S., the good fundamentals actually argue for a 10yr Mexico-U.S. spread close to 400bps and this is our favored strategic risk reward for big EM government bonds. In Brazil a case can be made for a 12.75% policy rate end 2026 and 10% in 2027, but this could only mean 1

SARB Cuts Key Rate to 7.0% Given Subdued Inflation; Lower CPI Goal Announced

July 31, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite the uncertainty around United States tariffs and rising domestic food inflation, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the policy rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the MPC on July 31 as annual inflation hit 3.0% YoY in June coupled with eased core inflation, and a relatively sta

Food Glorious Food

July 28, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       Global food prices should see small increases in the future, as production continues to rise broadly in line with increasing demand driven by population and a rising consumption per person in EM countries.  However, China will remain dependent on food imports given it has limited roo

EM Currencies with a USD Downtrend

July 24, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       BRL, ZAR and MXN have been helped by FX carry trades and bond inflows on still wide interest rate differentials.  However, actual reciprocal tariff risks are high for all three countries and a wave of profit-taking could be seen.  Elsewhere, though we see a U.S./China trade deal by

Food Prices Lifted South Africa Inflation to 3.0% YoY in June

July 23, 2025 12:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on July 23 that annual inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in June from 2.8% in May as food prices reached a 15-month high coupled with elevated restaurant and health services prices. The inflation is still within South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)

South Africa Opposes Trump’s 30% Tariffs

July 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After a 90-day reprieve, U.S. president Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would implement 30% additional tariffs against South Africa-origin products from August 1. Despite President Ramaphosa opposed what he calls the unilateral trade tariffs by the U.S., and emphasized that Sout

South Africa: Coalition Under Pressure After President Ramaphosa Fires DA Deputy

July 2, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed

June 25, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

•    EM currencies face cross currents on a spot basis.  The USD downtrend against DM currencies can be a positive for undervalued or strong EM currencies.  This could benefit the Brazilian Real (BRL), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), though moves will be choppy with occasiona

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

EMEA Outlook: Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics Continue to Dominate

June 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food prices, and global uncertainties. We see growth to be 1.2% and 1.7%

South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do