South Africa
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July 03, 2026
EM Government Debt Sinners and Saints
July 3, 2026 1:05 PM UTC
· Overall, the clearest EM fiscal sinner is Brazil, given its tax revenue/GDP ratio is already very high and requires politically sensitive expenditure cuts after the October election to increase the primary surplus to stabilize the government debt/GDP trajectory and get real bond yield
July 01, 2026
Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks
July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC
El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning.
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l
June 25, 2026
June 22, 2026
EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate
June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca
June 18, 2026
Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May
June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha
June 11, 2026
June 09, 2026
South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1
June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne
May 28, 2026
SARB Hikes Policy Rate to 7.0% Amid Rising Geopolitical and Inflation Risks
May 28, 2026 4:59 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened on May 28, and announced that it hiked the key rate by 25 bps to 7.0%. This decision was driven by mounting upside risks to price stability, most notably the conflict in Iran, a volatile rand, and rising headline
May 21, 2026
South Africa MPC Preview: Close Call on May 28
May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April due to higher energy and transportation prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely consider hiking the rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the next MPC scheduled on May 28 given plenty of upside risks
May 20, 2026
South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April
May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl
April 28, 2026
Big EM: Diverging Fiscal Trends
April 28, 2026 12:35 PM UTC
· EM government bond spreads are controlled as 2nd round inflation effects are likely to be less than 2022, due to less buoyant domestic demand/slacker labour markets and less global supply chain pressure ex oil/oil products. Brazil is expected to cut rates and others will likely not
April 23, 2026
South Africa Inflation Hit 3.1% y/y in March but Pressures Signal Looming Spike
April 23, 2026 10:40 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, South Africa’s inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in March. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6% and the main drivers behind the rise were housing, utilities and financial services. The surge was driven by a combinat
April 16, 2026
Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March
April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st
March 26, 2026
SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75% Due to Inflationary Risks
March 26, 2026 3:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on March 26 due to inflationary risks. We anticipate that a weakening rand, driven by higher oil prices and surging food costs to the war in Iran, will likely push inflation over 4% in Q2/Q3, and SA
March 25, 2026
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate
March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,
March 19, 2026
South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments
March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (
March 10, 2026
South African Economy Grew by 1.1% in 2025 Supported by Stronger Agriculture, Trade and Finance Activities
March 10, 2026 4:35 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth figures on March 10. Following a revised 0.3% q/q expansion in Q3, the economy grew by 0.4% q/q (0.8% y/y) in Q4. For the full year, the economy expanded by 1.1%—its fastest pace in three years—supporte
March 06, 2026
February 26, 2026
Low Inflation and No Loadshedding Continue to Support South African GDP Growth
February 26, 2026 3:19 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q4 2025 GDP growth figures on March 3. Following a 0.5% q/q expansion in Q3 2025, we expect growth momentum to be sustained in Q4. This trajectory is supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, a power cuts (
February 20, 2026
Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Strike Down
February 20, 2026 4:31 PM UTC
· The 6-3 vote by the Supreme court and full ruling against reciprocal tariffs means that the Trump administration will likely resort to other tariffs for negotiating leverage. However, the Trump administration will also pressure to codify existing trade framework deals that have be
February 18, 2026
South Africa Inflation Moderately Eased to 3.5% y/y in January
February 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on February 18 that annual inflation slightly edged down moderately to 3.5% y/y in January, driven by higher housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Annual core inflation came in at 3.4%
February 02, 2026
Markets: Profit-Taking or More?
February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
• For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions. However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off. The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be
January 30, 2026
As We Expected, SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75%
January 30, 2026 6:31 AM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on January 29 due to inflationary risks such as food prices and rise in administered costs, such as electricity prices. The MPC decision was not unanimous. We think the SARB’s (new) 3% inflation t
January 21, 2026
South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December
January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe
January 15, 2026
South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December
January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs
January 08, 2026
Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath
January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow
January 06, 2026
Markets 2026
January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC
• For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7. However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b
January 02, 2026
December 22, 2025
December 18, 2025
EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help
December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
• EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter. We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru
December 17, 2025
Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times
December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
· The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing. The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term
December 16, 2025
EMEA Outlook: Uncertainties Give Mixed Signals
December 16, 2025 7:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Upside risks to inflation remain such as, utility costs, and supply chain destructions. We see growth to be 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Risks to the growth
December 04, 2025
December 02, 2025
South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022
December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe
November 21, 2025
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows. Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r
November 20, 2025
SARB Reduced Key Rate to 6.75% Following Favorable Inflation Outlook
November 20, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% during the MPC on November 20 owing to moderate inflation, stronger ZAR, few power cuts (loadshedding) in Q3, balanced growth risks, and lower oil prices. The MPC decision was unanimous. SARB governor Kganyago ment
November 19, 2025
South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024
November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta
November 18, 2025
Markets 2026
November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated. The BOJ could partiall
October 22, 2025
South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September
October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe
September 26, 2025
September 25, 2025
September 23, 2025
Outlook Overview: Into 2026
September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
· The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of
September 22, 2025
EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties
September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see
September 18, 2025
SARB Holds Rate Stable at 7.0% to Bring the Inflation Down to New 3% Anchor and Assess Impacts of Earlier Cuts
September 18, 2025 6:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the policy rate at 7.0% during the MPC on September 18 as annual inflation hit 3.3% YoY in August which is above new inflation anchor coupled with surged core inflation. SARB governor Kganyago said on September 18 that MPC expects headline inflatio
September 17, 2025
South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August
September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang
September 03, 2025
August 27, 2025
South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2
August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat