Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

Cameroon (CMR)

Overall risk in Cameroon continues to be considered as medium high. On the 12th October, President Paul Biya had secured victory in the presidential election by a comfortable margin of 53.66%, compared to the opposition’s 35.19%. Opposition leader, Tchiroma, had suggested that he had won the election a week before and would not accept any other outcome, then protests erupted even before the final election results were released. Political violence is assessed as high. Following the election, protests have currently resulted in at least 23 deaths; security are beginning to crackdown on violence and vandalism.  Meanwhile, the Interior Minister has accused opposition leader Tchiroma of causing the rebellion due to his declaration of victory before results were calculated. Additional accusations are suggesting that President Biya used his state power to guarantee an eighth term. On the political inference and legal & regulatory front, both indicators remain high. Relations with France have been maintained, being one of Cameroon’s long-standing economic and political partners. However, regarding the relationship with the U.S., the Trump administration had gained permission from the U.S. appeals court to remove deportation protection rights for Cameroonian citizens, but also citizens from Afghanistan. The administration believes that both countries under the temporary protected status (TPS) no longer require the protected status, affecting approximately 7,900 Cameroonians. Meanwhile, August 2025 had seen the total number of forcibly displaced people in the African state reach 2 million. Cameroon is the host of over 429,000 refugees and asylum seekers from Central Africa and Nigeria, due to ongoing internal violence spilling over from these regions.

In terms of the economy, the IMF forecast GDP growth to reach 3.8% in 2025, estimating a rise in growth in 2026 at 4.1%. Growth has continued to be supported by agriculture, oil and gas, as well as mining. The mining sector had officially introduced The Grand Zambi Iron ore project, inaugurated in September 2025, which could produce 2 mln tonnes of Iron ore annually with future plans of expanding production to 6 mln tonnes. In addition to providing 3,500 jobs, the project will inject resources into the economy through taxes, royalties and mining funds. Inflation has seen a slight reduction hitting 3.7% in 2025 with falling food and energy prices, which is still above Cameroon’s 3% inflation target. Therefore, the risk of doing business remains high. Fiscal consolidation policy is still ongoing under the current government, supported by extensions from Cameroon’s IMF Extended Credit Facility. Since 2021, a 4-year program has improved the allocation of government spending but also raising public revenues through reducing exemptions. According to the IMF, government debt is currently forecast at 37.9% of GDP in 2025, while estimated to reduce to 36.3% in 2026. Sovereign non-payment risk currently remains medium high. Finally, exchange transfer risk is considered medium as the CFA Franc continues to be pegged to the euro, including a policy rate of 4.5% following a 50bps reduction in March this year.

Chad (TCD)

Chad, located in central Africa, has retained its overall risk of very high. Mahamat Déby continues to hold the position of Presidency following his election win in May 2024, after the death of his father, President Idriss Déby. Recently, constitutional revisions have been endorsed, which if successful will extend the presidential term from five to seven years and allow the president unlimited re-election opportunities. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain very high. Regarding the relationship with U.S., Chad had been included in President Trump’s travel ban list, meaning a visa could not be obtained after June 9th. Additionally, former prime minister and current opposition leader, Succes Masra, was investigated in early May for charges of incitement to hatred and complicity in murder, as well as for his involvement in a clash in the southern town of Mandakao. Masra has now been sentenced to 20 years in prison due to his comments. Political violence also remains very high. More than two years of conflict in Sudan have caused problems and escalated tensions between the bordering countries. Chad and South Sudan have continued efforts to mediate between the RSF and the Sudanese Military, but have not been successful. Furthermore, Chad’s eastern border has witnessed more than a million people fleeing from the ongoing conflict, with this number expected to climb. Chad’s humanitarian response agencies are becoming overwhelmed, while funding margins are shrinking.

According to the IMF, GDP growth is forecast at 3.3% in 2025 and a 3.6% rate to follow in 2026. Chad is dependent on petroleum production, after previously relying on its agricultural output (which has suffered significantly from climate related issues and flooding). Growth potential appears better, since the IMF approved a USD625 mln Extended Credit Facility (ECF), disbursing USD38.5 mln immediately. Over the approaching four years, the IMF lending programme aims to ensure fiscal sustainability, stimulate private sector growth, improve social spending to combat poverty and potential development projects. However, the risk of doing business currently remains very high. Inflation currently stands at 4% in 2025 and is predicted by the IMF to fall to 3.6% in 2026. In addition, government debt is improving as the IMF forecasts 31.5% of GDP in 2025 and 32.5% in 2026. Sovereign non-payment risk remains medium high, though exchange transfer risk has risen to a high rating.

Cote d’lvoire (CIV)

Overall risk in Cote d’Ivoire has risen to high. Following the 2025 October election, President Alassane Ouattara confirmed his fourth term in office winning by an expected landslide of 89.77% of the vote. President Ouattara had insisted that he would continue to attract private investment but also uphold economic growth, while using this term to focus on the new generation of political leaders. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain medium high. Both former President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse chief Tidjane Thiam, the candidate for the opposing party PDCI, were both excluded from the electoral vote in October and leading to weak opposition candidates. Alongside the banning of key opposition leaders, protests had taken place in June due to the removal of such key figures. Deployment of approximately 44,000 police and soldiers had been considered necessary by the government, to guarantee a peaceful election. Additionally, Cote d’Ivoire’s northern neighbours: Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali, are all African states controlled by Military Juntas. The three countries continue to suffer from political conflict and a major surge in terrorist groups. In particular, Burkina Faso uses the Cote d’Ivoire as a gateway for trade, while a terrorist organization has gained control of a natural park on the border of the two countries. Cote d’Ivoire also hosts approximately 4 mln Burkinabe, accumulated through migration by Burkina Faso’s security risks. Political violence therefore continues to be considered as high.

Economically, GDP growth according to the IMF is forecast to grow 6.4% in 2025, estimating a similar rate of 6.4% in 2026 as well. Growth for Cote d’Ivoire has been on a positive trend the past 4 years, as its agricultural sector, especially the production of cocoa beans, continues to be a key driver. However, the world’s top cocoa producer has faced challenges throughout 2025. For instance, the rise to CFA francs 2800 (USD 5.05) per Kg had discouraged exporters to provide funds for buyers to facilitate the purchase of cocoa, while environmental damage and negative reduction in farmer livelihoods also posed significant issues. On the other hand, diversification of the economy is shown by the recent grant of 11 new mining exploration permits for local and international firms. The exploration intends to attract further investment through the mining of gold, cobalt and copper. Therefore, the risk of doing business remains medium high alongside the inability of the government to provide stimulus. Inflation currently is forecast at 1% in 2025, while predicted to have a slight spike to 1.5% in 2026. The Central Bank of West States have left a 5.25% policy rate in effect since June 2025. Sovereign non-payment risk is still considered as medium high as government debt to GDP is forecast by the IMF to be 55.6% in 2025. The IMF and Ivorian authorities had reached a staff level agreement at the end of September, confirming the total disbursement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) of approximately USD 843.9 mln. The IMF note that the African state’s budgetary discipline has improved. Finally, exchange transfer risk continues to be assessed as medium high, while the CFA Franc remains pegged to the euro and Cote d’Ivoire maintains its membership in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).

Democratic Republic of Congo (COD)

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains under great political pressure, with an overall risk of very high. President Félix Tshisekedi’s controversial landslide election victory in the later stages of 2023, was followed by the President affirming his commitment to tackle the ongoing unrest throughout the DRC. Political violence has however continued to be assessed as very high. The M23 armed group, who have supposed ties to neighbouring country Rwanda, accused the government of failing to uphold their promises in 2021 and onwards. Additionally, Islamic state backed rebels of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) have intensified attacks in the Eastern region of DRC, brutally killing at least 52 civilians in the areas of Beni and Lubero. Attacks were influenced by the ADF suffering defeats to the Congolese armed forces. Overall, the government’s focus has been on trying to resolve issues with the Rwanda backed M23 Rebels. Under the joint mediation of U.S. and Qatar, a historical landmark was reached with a peace agreement signed by both the DRC and Rwanda in July 2025. However, little has changed as the M23 hold the most territory in the east (as Rwanda continue to deny their involvement), while reports suggest command is undertaken by Kigali, the Rwandan Capital. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain very high. Congo’s mining sector is one of the country’s largest drivers, accounting for over 70% of global cobalt output. Global output of cobalt had come to a standstill in February 2025 due to the implementation of a temporary ban on cobalt exports to combat the reduction in prices and oversupply. Mid-October 2025, saw the DRC introduce a quota system requiring companies to apply for a monthly export quota and prepay royalties before shipping commences. Violation of the quota system will lead to a permanent ban for perpetrators. GDP growth has been forecast by the IMF to stabilize at 5.3% in 2025, following a decline since 2022. The economy’s key driver is the mining sector, specialising in the extraction of copper, cobalt and zinc, mostly located in the south away from the zones dominated by conflict. Copper and zinc production have not been dampened by the cobalt suspension, while the transportation of such resources has been supported by China, which renovated the railway line to Angola, as well as the U.S., African Development Bank and EU providing financial support. The inability of the Government to provide stimulus is now assessed as medium. However, the risk of doing business remains high due to the lack of non-mining investment, which has been hurt by a poor political and business environment. Inflation in 2025 has seen a significant improvement with a rate of 8.8%, while the IMF project inflation at 7.1% in 2026. The policy rate has recently been cut to 17.5% in October 2025 from 25% previously, meaning the Congolese Franc is seeing some stability. Exchange transfer risk has improved to a medium risk. Finally, supply chain disruption continues to be assessed as very high. Congo have yet again declared another Ebola outbreak in early September 2025, while supplies continue to run low and people are overwhelmed with resources urgently required. The IFRC had established an appeal of CHF20 mln (approximately USD 25 mln) to contain the spread of the disease and preventing the country from another regional health crisis.

Eritrea (ERI)

Eritrea continues into Q3 with an overall rating of very high. Isaias Afwerki holds his role as Head of State, marking 32 years since Afwerki was elected, with the 79-year-old never facing an election in his three decades as President. In addition, the President has voiced that he had no intention of partaking in a political party and continues not to allow democratic reforms in Eritrea. Political interference and legal & regulatory both continue to remain very high. The situation in Eritrea is becoming critical, which has led the UN council to explore human right issues throughout the state. Eritrea however had a bid rejected in July to end the mandate of a UN expert exploring abuses. China and Russia supported the bid to end the investigation, as relations strengthen between Eritrea and the two countries based on similar national interests. Political violence continues to follow a consistent rating of high. Frictions between Eritrea and its neighbouring country, Ethiopia, are escalating over alterations in alliances, ethnic divisions and disputes regarding access to the Red Sea. Conflict between the two African states relates all the way back to 1998, which was known as the Badme War. Tensions and corruption throughout Eritrea have led to hundreds of thousands fleeing the country over the past two decades. In terms of the UK, Eritreans are the third most common nationality to be given refuge.

Economically, political tensions have meant supply chain risk has remained medium high. Growth in terms of GDP has not seen any alterations since early 2025, with the World Bank projecting 3.2-3.5% for 2025. Eritrea’s dependence on the agricultural sector still remains high, while economic activity is subdued by the level of state dominance, resulting in limited competition for firms but also very strict import controls. However, Eritrea also sees the mining sector as a key driver for economic development. The mining sector in question focuses on copper, gold, zinc and potash (relating to the Asmara project that brought a joint venture including Eritrean and Chinese state ownership in 2024). The risk of doing business still is heavily affected by political factors, meaning it has remained very high. However, the inability of the Government to provide stimulus stands at medium high. Government debt levels still remain substantial due to very restricting economic policies and sanctions on the African state, while the last reported figure by the IMF was 260.4% in 2019. The Eritrean Nakfa continues to be pegged to the USD. Government-imposed foreign exchange controls mean exchange transfer is considered a high-risk rating, while vulnerability of the banking sector stands at medium low.

Ghana (GHA)

Ghana’s overall risk has improved from the significant economic and social progress made in the last three decades, resulting in a solid rating of medium. President John Dramani Mahama had seen victory once again in the December 2024 election for his second term in the presidency role. President Dramani had pledged his commitment to overcome public discontent by stimulating the economy, while providing employment for the West African state. Political interference, legal & regulatory risk and political violence have all remained medium. In late July, deployment of military presence became necessary in the north-eastern region of Ghana due to a multiple decade long conflict over regional chieftains (more recently staging attacks on schools), which is a traditional system of governance that predates colonial rule and exists alongside the current government. Disputes involve the Mamprusi and Kusaasi ethnic groups, each seeking to appoint a chief in the same area. In relation to the IMF, IMF staff have agreed on a fifth review of the country’s loan programme in late October. Approval of the review could unlock a further USD 385 mln for the African state, bringing total disbursements to more than USD 2.8 bln, supported by the positive momentum of Ghana’s macroeconomic stabilization and growth prospects heading into 2026.

Regarding the economy. The IMF anticipate a GDP growth of 4% in 2025, further forecasting a positive shift in 2026 to 4.8%. Agriculture and services are key drivers for the economy’s growth and recently mining has further diversified Ghana’s economy beyond its traditional sectors. Recently, Newmont had officially opened its USD 900 mln Ahafo North mine, the companies second operating mine in Ghana, which has expectations of producing up to 325,000 ounces of gold annually and employ at least 1,000 workers. Newmont CEO implied that attracting mining investment into the African state will take fiscal stability, fair tax and royalty systems; however, the government is planning to implement tighter controls on mining companies. The risk of doing business has remained medium high, while inability of the government to provide stimulus is at a medium risk. In terms of inflation, rates currently sit at 12% in 2025, while the IMF’s forecast places inflation within the Central bank’s target at exactly 8% in 2026. Inflationary pressures have significantly reduced since last year with the economy demonstrating strong growth. Ghana’s Central Bank had slashed its policy rate by 350 bps in September, lowering it to 21.5% and reflecting expectations that inflation will move toward the Bank’s target. Meanwhile, sovereign non-payment risk has shifted to an improved medium rating. The country had undergone a G20 Common Framework restructuring to repair its heavy borrowing mindset from domestic and foreign markets. Following the introduction of the restructuring process in June, repayments have been processed on time while the country’s currency, the Ghanaian Cedi, has partially stabilized. Exchange transfer risk is assessed as medium, with improved reserves playing a part in its notable recovery.

Liberia (LBR)

Liberia’s overall risk continues to be assessed as high. Joseph Boakai, the current President of Liberia, has continued to pledge his fight against corruption, following accusations of corruption faced by his predecessor, George Weah. Earlier this year, Boakai had suspended approximately 450 established government officials after many failed to declare their assets to the anti-corruption agency. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain high. Relation between the U.S and Liberia have been developing over the recent quarter, with Liberian Foreign Minster Sara Beysolow Nyanti meeting the U.S. secretary of State. The meeting discussed the U.S.’s expanding participation in Liberia’s minerals sector, aiming to support economic growth while also creating jobs in the West African state. GDP growth has been driven by an increase in mining activity alongside the recovery of Liberia’s agricultural sector, as the IMF forecast GDP growth to hit 4.6% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026. Export growth is mainly driven by gold production, while iron ore is gaining large scale investment. In particular, Liberia had replaced its mining minister and top mining regulator, as President Boakai chases investments from Washington in their iron ore production. Additionally, support from the World Bank and African Development Bank have allowed the government to maintain rural development and social investment. However, a limited electricity supply and high food import prices have led to an inflation rate of 9.8% forecast in 2025. Therefore, the risk of doing business remains very high, while the government’s inability to provide stimulus is assessed as medium high. Lastly, government debt to GDP currently lies at 55.7% and is projected to stabilize overtime. Additionally, the Central Bank of Liberia has continued to reassure citizens and markets that there is no shortage of the Liberian Dollar (LRD), as commercial banks have sufficient LRD liquidity to meet the demand of customers. The central bank had eased its policy rate in October 2025 to 16.25 % from 17.25%, stating the LRD is stable. Therefore, banking sector vulnerability is now assessed as medium risk, while sovereign non-payment risk has also improved slightly to medium high.

Mauritania (MUS)

The overall risk in Mauritania continues to be considered as high, with political violence and political interference both remaining high. Under the leadership of President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (a retired military general) with PM Mokhtar Ould Djay serving since August 2024. The government has continued efforts to strengthen the country’s social safety nets, while maintaining macroeconomic stability. Institutional and socio-economic reforms have been at the forefront of the President’s mind, since his re-election in 2024. For instance, the “Mes engagements,” program has transitioned to a far broader program named: “Mon ambition pour la nation,” a framework that is centralised around human capital development, economic resilience, institutional governance, security and social inclusion. Geographically Mauritania is located within the Sahel region of West Africa, and neighbouring country Mali has had a profound security crisis since 2012. Violence has been created by armed militia and violent groups affiliated with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. In 2025 and more recently September, groups have continued to prohibit trade routes in both Mauritania and Senegal.  Arson and ambushes have also taken place on many highways, raising concern for potential spill over westward. In terms of legal & regulatory risk, it has remained very high due to the ongoing migrant issues. Mauritania have become a common location in Africa for migrants attempting to reach Europe, more particularly to Spain’s Canary Islands, where it was calculated 47,000 made the journey last year. In 2024, a deal was struck between the EU and the Sahel nation, and USD 244 mln was provided by the EU to support the management of migration, however questions have been raised over reported migrant abuse.

In terms of the economy, the IMF forecast that GDP is projected to grow 4% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, while inflation currently stands at 2.5% and is expected by the IMF to rise to 3.5% in 2026. In 2024, economic diversification had expanded beyond the economy’s historic reliance on mining through new offshore gas fields. However, contractions in extractive processes - especially in iron, gold and copper – and an overall weaker public consumption have both contributed to cap growth. The government’s inability to provide stimulus has remained medium, due to the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim liquified natural gas project (GTA). GTA, alongside the operator BP, is one of the largest offshore projects in Africa, receiving major investment and making up for 11.6% of total exports since the first shipment in April 2025. The risk of doing business is assessed at high. Additionally, the IMF forecast government debt to be heading in a positive direction reducing down to 41.2% in 2025 and 40.6% in 2026. Gross government debt has been supported by responsible management of public finances, declining external debt and exchange rate stability. Sovereign non-payment risk continues to hold a medium high risk, while exchange transfer risk is assessed at medium. Finally, the Human Capital Index (HCI) had calculated that a child born today is expected to reach a limiting 38% of their potential productivity by adulthood, indicating key social infrastructure like health and education are under performing and need further investment. Supply chain disruption remains medium high.

Rwanda (RWA)

Overall risk in Rwanda is medium. Paul Kagame remains President of Rwanda following his re-election in 2024, where Kagame gained 99.18% of the vote - reflecting how little political opposition there is in Rwanda. In more recent news, President Kagame has selected central banker, Justin Nsengiyumva, as Rwanda’s new prime minister. However, during PM Nsengiyumva’s tenure as permanent secretary at Rwanda’s education ministry, he was arrested and later convicted for alleged corruption, although he was pardoned - along with 380 others - by President Kagame. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both continue to remain medium. In late June, a peace deal was finally signed by Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in Washington, following relentless efforts by the U.S. to end the decades of conflict between the two bordering countries. However, setbacks have emerged, as both Rwanda and DRC have failed to sign the economic deal in the Trump administration’s efforts to broker peace. Setbacks in the peace deal have led to Congo’s military and supposed Rwandan-backed M23 rebels reinforcing their military positions. In addition to the growing political relationship between Rwanda and the U.S., Rwanda had also recorded its first 7 migrants deported from the U.S. under an agreement providing for the transfer of 250 migrants.

In terms of the Rwandan economy, the IMF forecast GDP growth to climb by 7.1% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026. Services, including the likes of business tourism and financial services, continue to be the driving factor for Rwandan growth, while industry - including mineral refining and construction - are also expected to expand. Agriculture, which has contributed significantly to the economy, has seen a major slowdown in output. This has reduced revenues from crop exports due to a contraction in food production and the government’s aim to transition from subsistence to commercial farming. The risk of doing business remains medium. In addition, plans for the next fiscal year include a 21% rise in spending for Rwanda. Rwanda is expected to see an injection of 7 trl Rwanda Francs (USD5 bln) with 58% of the revenue expected to be raised domestically, particularly through changes in tax collection, including the reinstatement of VAT on items such as fuel. This fiscal stimulus aligns with the 2024-2029 National Strategy for Transformation (NST2), which aims to help Rwanda achieve the status of a high-income country by 2050.  The inability of government to provide stimulus remains medium high. Inflation has climbed to 7% in 2025, but the IMF estimates it will fall to 4.7% in 2026, with the Central Bank of Rwanda increasing its policy rate from 6.5% to 6.75% to curb inflation. Finally, exchange transfer has reduced from medium high to medium, while banking sector vulnerability has improved, shifting from medium to medium low.

Somalia (SOM)

Stretching across the Horn of Africa, Somalia’s overall risk continues to be assessed as very high. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud vowed to restore stability since his regaining of presidential power, during the 2022 election. Ongoing security concerns, however, continue to prohibit the Somalian President’s promise of ensuring stability. Therefore, political violence remains very high, with little chance of improvement in the near future. Al-Shabaab, an extremist Islamist group that aims to gain an Islamic state within Somalia, has implemented an insurgency throughout Somalia since 2007, advocating the implementation of its own rule that takes a strict approach of Sharia law. In more recent events, Tardo, a town in Somalia’s central region of Hiiran, had Al-Shabaab insurgents drive out government allied forces and clan fighters. Ultimately leading to the extremist group capturing the town that is part of a strategic triangle of other key areas like Buq-Aqable and Moqokori. Additionally, thousands of civilians had been faced with displacement from Tardo and nearby towns that had suffered similar conflict issues. Another significant event occurred in early October 2025, when Al-Shabaab attempted to gain access to the high-security underground prison in the capital Mogadishu. In terms of the Trump administration’s Somalian policy, President Trump’s mixed words contrast with continued U.S. action against terrorists in Somalia. Meanwhile, the U.S travel ban prohibits Somalian citizens from entering the United States, protecting the West from the movement of potential ‘foreign terrorists’. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain very high.

According to the IMF, GDP growth is projected at 3% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. Somalia is seeking to overcome the economic effect of many years of conflict through the use of development plans. The National Transformation Plan 2025-29 (NTP) is a strategic blueprint that aims to address and solve the country’s largest challenges through the development of human capital, stimulate economic growth and enhance governance while engaging with a combination of stakeholders. However, the closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development earlier in 2025 has caused a major disruption for the Somalian economy. Therefore, the inability of the government to provide stimulus has remained medium high, while the risk of doing business remained also at very high. Inflationary pressure appears to be easing, declining from highs of 6.8% in 2022 to a current inflation rate of 3.6% in 2025. The Somalian government has remained committed in its stance to conclude its debt relief agreements, aimed at settling overdue and unpaid payments with the remaining non-Paris Club bilateral creditors. Sovereign non-payment risk is unchanged at high, while banking sector vulnerability has improved slightly to a medium low rating. Lastly, Somalia is on the frontline of modern-day climate change, as an intensifying drought continues to cause forced displacement of citizens, worsened food insecurity and hinder the development of domestic agriculture. Supply chain disruption remains very high.

South Africa (ZAF)

South Africa’s overall risk score remains at medium, with no changes in any of the risk levels in this reporting period. First, the risk of political violence remains high due to high income inequality, poverty and corruption in the country. Structural risks such as high unemployment and logistics bottlenecks remain strong, although power supply (loadshedding) constraints significantly eased after Q2. On the political front, even though we regard the coalition government as relatively successful, the political interference risk remains at medium-high rating due to political frictions in 2025, as the coalition got tested by the budget, national health insurance, and the U.S. additional tariffs, which ensured that legal and regulatory risks to hit medium level. The inability of the government to provide stimulus remained medium-high in this rating period due to fiscal constraints. Despite this, South Africa was officially removed from the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) greylist on October 24, 2025, signifying that South Africa has made substantial progress in addressing the 22 action items required by the FATF, leading to improved international reputation and potentially lower transaction costs for businesses. The ease of doing business, which is at medium-high, is helped by moderate inflation and improving economic environment. Despite economic problems such as high corruption and a high unemployment rate; South Africa has secured its first credit upgrade in two decades on November 14, after S&P Global Ratings lifted the country’s sovereign ratings by one notch to BB on the back of reforms and growing fiscal revenue. The macroeconomic outlook remains positive given moderate inflation and potential for further improvements in fiscal metrics and government debt stabilisation after a medium-term budget update in November which partly signalled that government debt was coming under control. The annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs while it remained within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3%-6%. Capital buffers are sound, enabling banks to withstand shocks as banking sector vulnerability remains at medium-low, demonstrating the relative strength of the financial sector. Despite the economic outlook remaining positive on the back of improved investor sentiment; we think there are some upside risks including 30% additional tariffs by the U.S. over South-African origin products, and increases in utility costs. The keys for the economic trajectory will be the trade deal talks with the U.S., commodity prices and the government’s determination to address the electricity shortages, logistical constraints and financing needs in the medium term.

Trinidad and Tobago (TTO)

Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean dual-island, has continued into Q3 with an overall risk of medium. President Christine Kangaloo continues her role in office, becoming only the second woman to serve as the country’s president since her election victory in 2023. The resignation of former PM Keith Rowley led to the snap parliamentary election in late April, marking the return of Kamla Persad-Bissessar and the United National Congress (UNC is a centre left party). The new administration’s main issue is the hurdle of organised crime that is apparent throughout Trinidad and Tobago. Political violence and political interference both remain medium. Relations with neighbouring country Venezuela have worsened over the past quarter. In late October, military exercises had been progressing between the U.S. and Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean, while Venezuela had condemned these actions as military provocation that had the aim of creating a full military confrontation. Legal & regulatory risk continues to be assessed as medium high.

Economically, the IMF forecast GDP growth to reach 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Growth continues to be driven by the energy sector, with major energy projects such as the Cypre gas project, have begun production with BP. However, as the economy waits to see the completion of many other projects, growth is expected to remain subdued until 2027. Additionally, a recent auction of 26 potential deep-water and gas exploration and production blocks saw only 4 bids submitted by foreign investors. Inflation is expected to remain stable by the IMF, with a current 1.5% level for 2025. Therefore, the risk of doing business remains medium high, while the inability of the government to provide stimulus continues as medium. Furthermore, government debt is seen to have an upward trajectory with a larger budget deficit expected for the new government. The IMF forecast government debt at 65.3% of GDP in 2025 and a further 68.5% in 2026. The government has announced that it will rationalize expenditures and review official housing and private security contracts. Sovereign non-payment risk remains medium, while exchange transfer risk continues to be considered medium low.

Uganda (UGA)

The landlocked country of Uganda continues to have an overall risk of medium high. President Yoweri Museveni is titled as Africa’s fourth longest ruling leader, due to his change in constitution regarding term limits and the remove of age restrictions he has been able to remain president since 1986. President Museveni has been praised with promoting economic growth but also combatting Uganda’s rise in HIV/AIDS.  January 15th has been decided as the date for Uganda’s general election, where Museveni expects to continue his role in office. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk are both assessed as high. Political opposition has constantly accused President Museveni of abusing his power using state patronage and the military to maintain his role, for example, Uganda’s military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of the President, had admitted his participation in holding an opposition activist captive in May 2025. In terms of relations, Uganda and the U.S. highlight their formal diplomatic ties through an agreement under which Uganda will accept deportees from third countries who do not wish to return to their home nations. Similarly, the Netherlands will now cooperate on returning asylum seekers that are rejected via Uganda, under the signature of a letter of intent. Political violence continues to be considered as high. The approaching general election reflects previous electoral cycles which showed a troubling political landscape and signalled an eventual crisis. Additionally, displacement has affected thousands of citizens on the Northern border with South Sudan. Uganda have continued to support President Kiir of South Sudan by deploying troops in attempt to extinguish conflict against rebel armed groups.

In terms of the economy, GDP growth is forecast by the IMF to reach 6.4% in 2025, with expectations of a further pick up to 7.6% in 2026. Rising coffee exports has been a key driver for such positive growth movements. Coffee exports in September were up 59% Yr/Yr, which alongside the mining of gold have become Uganda’s largest sources of foreign exchange. Additionally, the World Bank had resumed its loans to the East African state after a near two-year suspension over certain laws implemented by the Ugandan government. The loans in question will provide USD 2 bn of financing over the next 3 years, developing projects in agriculture, energy and transportation. Expectations are that crude oil production is to commence mid-2026, further stimulating growth. However, Uganda’s total government debt has risen to 52.4% in 2025, according to the IMF. The IMF expect inflation to reach 3.8% in 2025, with an expected rise to 4.3% in 2026. The risk of doing business remains high, while sovereign non-payment risk is still considered medium high. Finally, exchange transfer continues to be assessed as medium risk due to the Ugandan shilling strengthening against the USD in November, driven by strong exports and a reduced demand for imports.

Zambia (ZMB)

Zambia, in southern Africa, continues to be assessed at an overall rating of medium high. President Hakainde Hichilema is marked as the seventh president since his election victory in August 2021. President Hichilema has had his main focus on reviving the Zambian economy, introducing free education and in quick succession repaired the country’s broken foreign relations. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain medium high. In early August, the Trump administration has required Zambian visa applicants to post a bond of USD5-15k. Zambia’s government body has voiced its concern regarding the programme. In addition, October had been the designated end date of Zambia’s USD1.7 bln Extended Credit Facility, but Zambia’s loan programme will see a three-month extension until January 30 2026. Overall, sovereign non-payment risk is assessed at medium high, with government debt approximately reducing to 91.1% of GDP in 2025.

The IMF forecast GDP to grow 5.8% in 2025, and is estimated to positively shift to 6.4% in 2026. Mining has created the opportunity for one of Zambia’s key exports, copper. Copper production is projected to reach highs of 1 mln metric tons next year, following a further rise of 1.2 mln metric tons in 2027. In the light of this, First Quantum Minerals (FQM) made a 15% investment into Zambia’s Sentinel mine, developing a project that explores the Mumbezhi copper deposit not far from the FQM’S Sentinel mine. Socially, there is great anticipation that the population is expected to double in the next 25 years from the current 22mln. However, the inability of the government to provide stimulus remains high, while the risk of doing business is assessed as medium high due to reliance on the mining industry and hydroelectric power. Inflation is seeing a reduction to 11.1% in 2025 according to the IMF, before slowing further to 7.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, the national currency, the Kwacha, has been trading positively against the USD, supported by the improvement of currency supply from its stable mining output and copper exports. Exchange transfer has been reduced to medium high risk rating. Supply chain disruption currently remains medium high.

Zimbabwe (ZWE)

Zimbabwe’s overall risk in Q3 has seen improvement to a rating of high. Emmerson Mnangagwa remains President, although facing calls to step down from his role due to allegations of mismanagement and corruption. The southern African state had seen Mnangagwa re-elected in 2017 and could see him in office until 2030, due to the ZANU-PF party wishing to extend his presidency from 2028. Political interference and political violence both remain at a high rating. In connection to the U.S., the processing of visas in Zimbabwe has been halted until further notice due to concerns with people overstaying their visas. Another area of concern is Zimbabwe’s retention rules in relation to exporters, which require companies to surrender 30% of their foreign currency earnings to the government allowing 70% to be retained. In August 2025, it was discovered the government owed platinum miners millions of dollars in unpaid exports income due to issues with cash flow constraints. Legal & regulatory risk continues at a very high rate.

In terms of Zimbabwe’s economy, GDP growth has rebounded strongly in 2025 with the IMF forecasting 6% growth, followed by an estimate of 4.6% in 2026. 2026 growth prospects are partly due to the improvements in agriculture production and breakthroughs in agricultural export deals. In particular, exportation of blueberries to China is to begin, since the agreement was complete during President Mnangagwa’s visit to China. In addition, Zimbabwe continue to remain Africa’s top lithium producer, while gold production has rebounded significantly following years of decline, driven by record gold prices. Inflation, however, has persisted as a major challenge for the Zimbabwean economy. Inflation is projected at 89% in 2025 according to the IMF, although is predicted to slow to 18.2% in 2026. To combat hyperinflation, the Zimbabwe gold, the ZIG, was introduced in April 2024 to attempt to stabilize the economy, labelled as the country’s 6th attempt to create a stable currency. The government has called for a tighter fiscal stance to deal with ongoing issues, but also is suffering from a gap between its official and parallel foreign exchange rates regarding the creation of the gold backed currency, the ZIG. Exchange transfer risk remains medium high, while banking sector vulnerability has improved to a medium low risk rating. Government debt currently is forecast at 45% of GDP in 2025 by the IMF, and expected to reduce in 2026 to 41.6%. Therefore, sovereign non-payment risk is now assessed as medium high. Finally, the reduction of poverty throughout the state has been hindered by the dependence on low-productivity agriculture, which has experienced major exposure to climate shocks. Supply chain disruption remains medium high alongside the risk of doing business that has also remained but at very high.

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