Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

Angola (AGO)

Overall risk for Angola has continued to be assessed as medium high. President João Lourenço has made it clear he will not be a candidate for the MPLA in the 2027 general election, respecting the rule set by the Constitution of the Republic of Angola that limits two presidential terms per candidate. Additionally, the president stressed how the MPLA will need to find a successor that is capable of meeting Angola’s current challenges and meet the expectations of the nation. Political interference is assessed as high, while legal & regulatory risk remains very high. In late December 2025, Angola agreed to accept the return of migrants who have illegally entered into the UK or have a record of criminal offences, while not cooperating could lead to the complete halting of visas. Political violence remains medium high.

In terms of the Angolan economy, the IMF project GDP growth to remain stable in 2026 at 2.1% and estimating a slight rise in 2027 to 2.5%. Angola’s economy is mainly driven by its offshore exploration and reserves of oil and gas, although non-oil sectors have begun to stimulate growth far more. In particular, the mining sector has gained significant potential. Record carats of diamonds were produced back in 2024 alongside a new copper mine, Tetelo, starting production in October 2025. Late December 2025, a USD 553 mln loan was also signed by the U.S. International development finance corporation to begin the refurbishment of an Angolan railway line that is part of the Lobito transport corridor, which will connect cobalt and copper mines to the Atlantic coast for further resource accessibility. Even so, the risk of doing business remains high, while the inability of the government to provide stimulus remains medium risk. According to the IMF, government debt is projected to reach 63.2% of GDP in 2026 and 63.5% in 2027. Angola plan on relying on domestic borrowing due to debt servicing absorbing 45.9% of total expenditure. Sovereign non-payment risk is assessed as medium high, while exchange transfer also remains but at a medium risk. Finally, inflation has continued to fall, currently 16.3% in 2026 according to the IMF, driven by the strengthening Angolan Kwanza (AOA).

Benin (BEN)

The West African Nation of Benin holds its overall risk of medium high. President Patrice Talon, serving as both head of state and head of government, took office in 2016 and was re-elected in 2021. The Beninese presidential election is scheduled to take place in April 2026, while President Talon’s governing coalition is in line to strengthen in upcoming local polls following the foiled coup attempt in December 2025. Political interference, political violence and legal & regulatory risk all remain medium high. Regarding the coup, Benin’s state television had been taken control of by soldiers who claimed to have deposed of President Talon; however, French logistical support, Nigerian airstrikes and troop deployment supported the Benin armed forces in successfully thwarting the coup. The alleged leader of the coup, Tigri, has supposedly taken refuge in the neighboring country of Togo. Relations with Niger have remained tense since the military junta had seized power in 2023, with tensions recently escalating as both African nations expelled each other’s diplomats, with Niger acting on reciprocity.

In terms of Benin’s economy, the IMF project GDP growth to slow ever so slightly going into 2026 at 6.7%, while estimating a similar figure of 6.6% in 2027. Benin continues to be driven by a robust agriculture sector, alongside the expansion of the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ), which boosts local manufacturing and reduces the reliance on raw material exports. Additionally, the approval of a USD 6.75 bln 2026 draft budget had been confirmed towards the end of 2025. The budget in question aims to continue Benin’s diversification through the development of its industrial sector, while also placing focus upon human capital. Inflation is also expected to continue its path of control at 2%, which is projected by the IMF for 2026, while the WAEMU’s policy rate is unchanged since its 25bps easing in June 2025. However, the ongoing Jihadist threats in nearby nations have potential to drive security costs higher. Therefore, the both the risk of doing business and the inability of the government to provide stimulus remain medium high. Finally, government debt continues to be on a downward trajectory at a projected 49.6% of GDP in 2026, however, the failed coup attempt has created some budgetary uncertainty. Sovereign non-payment risk remains assessed as medium high.

Botswana (BWA)

Botswana continues to be one of Africa’s few democracies, holding an overall country risk of medium low. President Duma Boko had marked history in his October 2024 election victory, with it being the first time in 58 years the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) had lost its majority. President Boko leads the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), a government focused on job creation amid rising unemployment throughout Botswana, as well as constitutional reforms concerning the restoration of tribal institutions in 2026. Political interference remains unchanged at medium, while legal & regulatory risk continues to be assessed as medium low. In addition, regional cooperation is also a key focus for the Southern African nation. Strong bilateral ties remain between Botswana and South Africa, driven by their cross-border projects regarding energy, water and transportation, while President Boko had taken a private visit to South Africa in late 2025. Botswana’s dominant diamond sector has led to action being taken to diversify away from the country’s largest export. According to the IMF, GDP growth of 2.3% is projected for 2026 and 4.6% in 2027. The Central Bank expect inflation to remain within their target rage over the medium term, as the decision was made to keep Botswana’s policy rate unchanged at 3.5% with the economy operating below full capacity. Inflation is forecast by the IMF to reach 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Therefore, the risk of doing business and the government’s inability to provide stimulus both continue to be assessed as medium. Exchange transfer risk is medium low, while sovereign non-payment risk is also unchanged but at medium. Botswana’s historically low public debt levels have begun to rise over the past two years due to the reduction in diamond revenues. The IMF forecast a government debt to GDP rate of 44.8% in 2026 and 49.1% in 2027, as two major loans were obtained from both POEC and the African Development Bank in 2025.

Burkina Faso (BFA)

Overall risk in the landlocked country of Burkina Faso continues to be assessed as high. The West African State has been led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since the two previous leaders were removed due to their inability to contain the Jihadist insurgency. Elections were initially scheduled for July 2024, however, have been delayed until at least 2029. Political interference, political violence and legal & regulatory risk all remain very high. Control of the Islamist insurgency has been lacking under Traoré’s leadership with a recent plot to assassinate the leader in January 2026.  The state has lost approximately 30% of territory to the Jihadist violence. Complex relations with the Burkina Faso and U.S. are ongoing, resulting in the recent reciprocal travel ban placed on travel to the U.S.. Strategic ties with Russia continue, while Moscow has also provided military support. 

Economically, the IMF forecast Burkina Faso’s GDP growth to stabilize at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. Momentum is expected to continue through 2026, driven mainly by strong gold output due to gradual formalization of Burkina Faso’s mining sector. Economic activity has also been stimulated by investments into sectors like agriculture, boosting national production. Additionally, authorities had announced the West African State’s national budget for 2026 in late December 2025. Valued at XOF 3,400 bln (USD 6.15 bln), the budget is claimed to be focused on the country’s defense, health, education and rural development. Therefore, the government’s inability to provide stimulus has remained at medium high, while the risk of doing business is still assessed as high. In addition, strong growth in both the gold and agricultural sectors has helped support Burkina Faso’s low and stable inflation outlook, projected at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. In terms of government debt, the IMF have deemed debt levels to be sustainable over the medium-term with projections of 51.7% of GDP in 2026 and 51.1% in 2027. Burkina Faso’s debt is predominantly composed of domestic borrowing; however, external debt remains significant, accounting for 40.3% of the total as of mid-2025. Sovereign non-payment risk continues to be assessed as medium high.

Djibouti (DJI)

Djibouti, located in the Horn of Africa, has an overall country risk of medium high. President Ismail Omar Guelleh has governed the African nation since 1999 when he succeeded the country’s founding president. Guelleh is expected to remain in his presidential role, following the government’s introduction of a constitutional amendment that removed the 75-year-old age limit for presidential candidates, allowing the 77-year-old president to run for his sixth term in the 2026 April election. Political violence and political interference both remain high. Djibouti’s position in the horn of Africa is vital. Strategically located on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, it hosts military bases for the U.S., Chinese, Japanese and French, and its role in Red Sea security has expanded, particularly in the context of the Israel – Hamas conflict. Djibouti also hosts many refuges and asylum seekers from neighboring countries experiencing complex political situations, mainly Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen, thereby increasing its exposure to spill overs from regional tensions, including the current Ethiopia internal tensions. The legal & regulatory risk is unchanged at very high. The IMF indicate that GDP growth is expected to remain stable throughout 2026 and 2027 at 6%, driven by robust port activity. In addition, the landlocked neighboring country of Ethiopia will continue to make use of Djibouti’s port services due to upcoming infrastructure projects. Stable inflation is expected to be maintained, with a marginal reduction forecast to 1.4% in 2026. Pegged to the USD, the Djiboutian Franc (DJF) supports the country’s monetary stability. However, the risk of doing business is still expected to remain high as Djibouti’s economy faces rising tensions in neighboring nations, while exchange transfer risk remains medium. In terms of government debt, the IMF estimates that the public to debt-to-GDP ratio will continue its downward trajectory, reaching 28% in 2026 and 25% in 2027. In order to maintain Djibouti’s sustainable debt trajectory, the 2026-2028 Medium – Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) has been adopted. Sovereign non-payment risk remains unchanged at medium high, while the government’s inability to provide stimulus has seen an improvement to medium.

Ethiopia (ETH)

Ethiopia’s overall country risk rating remains high, with political violence still very high. Tensions with Egypt have grown over Egypt’s concerns that their water supplies will be impacted by the start-up of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia. Worst case this could lead to military conflict, though for now it is being played out by political posturing. The U.S. and Turkey are trying to de-escalate the situation, but without success so far. However, the most pressing issue is tension with Eretria over the latter support for domestic opposition groups. This all means the political interference and supply chain disruption measures are high. Some external tensions have eased though following the Turkey-brokered deal between Ethiopia and Somalia last year. On the economic front, growth continues to recover from the depressed levels caused by the Tigray war, and the government has recently projected 10.2% for the fiscal year 2025-26.  The latest IMF loan review notes that Ethiopia is meeting reform targets and good growth is forecast for 2026 at 7.1%. However, inflation is not yet under control but is slowing and projected at 9.4% in 2026. Given the still difficult debt backdrop, the sovereign non-payment risk has remained at high.

Kenya (KEN)

The overall risk of the East African country of Kenya remains medium high. William Ruto continues his role as President of state, while the next general election is scheduled for August 2027. President Ruto had reaffirmed 2026 will be the period when Kenya’s transformation journey begins to take shape. Anchoring its economic model on production and exports, influenced by deliberate investment while focusing on the reduction of poverty and national unemployment through skillset development. Meanwhile, Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga had died aged 80 in October 2025 - while receiving treatment in India – prompting an overwhelming amount of national grief throughout East Africa. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain medium high, while political violence continues to be assessed as high risk. Kenya recorded its first-ever foreign deployment of 230 police into the Caribbean Island of Haiti to support the U.N. Security Council’s efforts in expanding the existing gang fighting forces. In terms of relations with the U.S., December had witnessed the signing of a new ‘America First Global Health Strategy’, promising more than USD 1.6 bln of foreign aid over a 5-year period. The strategy aims to support poorer nations in the fight against HIV/AIDS and other deadly diseases, while scoping for an eventual transition to self-reliance for the likes of Kenya. According to the IMF, Kenya’s GDP growth is projected to hold a steady rate of 4.9% in 2026, further reinforced in an estimated 5% growth rate in 2027. Kenyan growth has mainly been driven by the country’s agricultural sector, while a recovery on the mining sector also offered some stability in growth. Inflationary pressures have developed with a projected inflation rate of 5.2% in 2026 due to persistent pressures regarding food and transport costs. In addition, IMF program talks are expected to take place in 2026, given the expiration of their USD 3.6 bln program in April, with officials expressing interest in a new deal including a loan component. The risk of doing business remains medium high. Public debt continues to be an issue for the Kenyan economy. Government debt, according to the IMF, is considered to be 70.1% of GDP in 2026 and projected to rise to 71% in 2027. In the light of Kenya having one of the highest debt service to revenue ratios in the whole of Africa, the creation of a sovereign wealth and infrastructure fund was approved in December 2025 to allow infrastructure investment while not straining public finances. Sovereign non-payment risk is considered as medium high. Finally, the Kenyan shilling (KES) is expected to continue its ongoing period of stability, keeping exchange transfer risk at medium-low.

Malawi (MWI)

Malawi’s overall risk remains unchanged at medium high. Following five years of a worsening economic crisis, voters believed it was time for change in September’s presidential election. Former President Peter Mutharika had secured over 56% of valid votes, while previous President Lazarus Chakwera had conceded defeat with 33% of valid votes. President Mutharika, after his presidential victory, vowed to the Malawian people he would rebuild the nation’s broken economy, but also address government corruption and take immediate action on any discoveries. Political interference remains medium high, while legal & regulatory risk is unchanged at high. Following the African nation’s restricted business environment, debt distress, currency instability and the rising cost of living, President Mutharika had appointed economist Joseph Mwanamvekha as finance minister in early October 2025. In the light of Malawi’s dwindling foreign reserves, Mwanamvekha announced that foreign tourists must use dollars and other hard currencies, with relevant businesses able to handle foreign exchange directly with the central bank. This comes after the termination of Malawi’s IMF Extended Credit Facility earlier in 2025. Exchange transfer risk remains high. The IMF forecast GDP growth at 2.7% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, supported by Malawi’s strong agriculture sector. However, the enforcement of maize export restrictions is part of the government’s efforts to enforce national food security and the stability of food prices. Maize prices have increased by at least 50% over the past year, with as many as 4 million Malawians facing hunger between late 2025 and March 2026. In terms of Malawi fuel prices, the nation’s fuel regulator had hiked the price of petrol by approximately 42% and diesel by about 41%. Fuel prices should have been adjusted during former President Chakera’s term, as necessary levies to maintain infrastructure were not properly revised. Overall, the inability of the government to provide stimulus has remained at high. Inflationary pressure is projected by the IMF to slow in the next two years with a rate of 24.1% in 2026, as food prices begin to ease. Finally, sovereign non-payment risk remains medium high, while the risk of doing business is unchanged at high. According to the IMF, government debt is projected to be 78.3% of GDP in 2026 and 77.5% in 2027, as the finance minister is optimistic in reaching an agreement through restructuring talks with bilateral and commercial creditors by February 2026.

Mozambique (MOZ)

Mozambique overall risk remains unchanged at high. President Daniel Chapo continues his role in leadership, following his electoral victory as a candidate of the Frelimo party in late 2024. Widespread protests were encouraged by the opposition’s Venancio Mondlane after Chapo’s victory, claiming electoral fraud. Subsequently, political violence has remained very high, as insurgent attacks continued to increase throughout 2025, expanding into once safe areas in the north of Mozambique. Violence has once again developed in Cabo Delgado’s Palma District, which has not occurred since 2021, while overall violence in the southern African nation has displaced over 1.3 mln people since 2017 (according to the IMF). In addition to insurgent attacks, severe floods caused by heavy rain fall have also forced thousands to flee homes to safety in early 2026, directly impacting over 620,000 people, stretching domestic resources and Red Cross volunteers. Supply chain disruption continues to be assessed as very high. In terms of Mozambique’s economy, the IMF forecast GDP growth to rise into 2026 at 3.5% and 2027 at 4.4%. However, the World Bank had revised its 2026 growth to 2.8%, citing weak investment and accusations of Total Energies’ involvement in war crimes and torture allegedly committed by Mozambique government soldiers. Total Energies USD 20 bln liquefied natural gas (LNG) project will transform Mozambique into a major gas exporter, although the ongoing human right issues and the withdrawal of Britain’s and Netherland’s USD 2.2 billion support has left Total Energies to cover the lost equity. Alongside Mozambique’s extractives sector, agriculture has seen a rebound supporting rural incomes and the nation’s food security. The risk of doing business and the government’s inability to provide stimulus both remain high. Inflation is expected, by the IMF, to see a rise to 5.4% in 2026, while President Chapo has declared that the southern African nation is in talks with the IMF regarding a new facility to help the stabilization of the economy. Government debt is forecast to reach 99.9% of GDP in 2026 and 100.4% in 2027, as the president’s government begins talks with creditors to renegotiate public debt under a potential new program alongside the IMF. Sovereign non-payment risk therefore remains unchanged at high.

Niger (NER)

Overall risk for Niger is unchanged at a high rating. The military-led West African nation of Niger had announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, alongside Mali and Burkina Faso, under the continued lead of General Abdourahamane Tchiani. Abdourahamane Tchiani in March 2025 had been sworn in as Niger’s president for a five-year transitional period, a term that depends on the Sahel state’s security status. Political violence and political interference both remain high. Security risk has remained high, following jihadist insurgency coming from the direction of Burkina Faso and Mali. High profile attacks throughout recent months have reasoned for 120 deaths. In addition, ties with Western nations have been completely severed, as military support is now being provided by Russia in an effort to tackle ongoing insurgencies. Legal & regulatory risk has been affirmed as high.

In terms of Niger’s economy, the IMF forecasts 6.7% in 2026 and an estimated 6.5% in 2027. Oil and mineral exports continue to remain a key component since many sanctions had been lifted following the military coup, as well as the re-opening of the Benin cross border pipeline. Alongside the support from agriculture, uranium production has posed much disagreement between the French nuclear fuels group Orano and the military-led government since the nation seized the SOMAIR mine from Orano in Northern Niger in 2024, and nationalized in June 2025. Orano has claimed serious accusations regarding the nationalized site, alleging breaches of international transport rules, while the military general seeks to diversify partners, including Russia. The risk of doing business therefore remains high, as private investment is restricted by political and security uncertainty. Peaking inflation numbers have continued to decline since mid-2024, highlighted by the IMF’s forecast of 3.2% in 2026 and a projection of 2% in 2027. Government debt to GDP is expected to see a small fall in 2026 to 41.4% and 41.1% in 2027, while the official currency of Niger remains the West African CFA Franc. The currency still remains pegged to the Euro despite Niger’s distancing itself from France, as the Sahel region is actively planning to replace the CFA Franc with a new currency. Sovereign non-payment is assessed as medium high risk, while exchange transfer risk remains high.

Senegal (SEN)

Senegal’s overall risk continues to be assessed as medium high. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who became the youngest elected leader in Africa, holds his presidential role alongside Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. PM Sonko had recently criticized neighboring country Guinea-Bissau for its military coup before its presidential election demanding that the disrupted election should continue, adding that the coup was orchestrated by Guinea-Bissau’s President Embaló. Political interference, legal & regulatory risk and political violence all remain medium. In early December 2025, clashes in the country’s capital between university students and law enforcement had developed due to the poor situation of Senegal’s Universities and a rather large debt burden. The West African nation’s current leadership had discovered billions of debts unreported by the previous administration, with the IMF stating it reached 132% of GDP at the end of 2024. Government debt is expected to be on a downward trend by the IMF, with a projected 124.3% of GDP in 2026 and 122.5% in 2027. PM Sonko has explained that Senegal would not need to implement a debt restructuring plan although a troubled repayment schedule is ahead, opposing the IMF’s advice to restructure. Last year, the IMF froze a USD 1.8 bln loan package due to the previously undisclosed debts, however in early 2026, progression has been made towards a new program between the IMF and Senegal with hopes that finalization can occur quickly. Therefore, sovereign non-payment risk is still considered as high. In terms of growth, the IMF project that GDP growth will slow to 3% in 2026 while rebounding to 3.3% in 2027. Senegal’s economic drivers are primarily centered around its hydrocarbon sector, with aims for the country to end natural gas imports and to transition to its domestic offshore supplies. Inflation is forecast to continue its stable path of 2% in 2026 and 2027, while the risk of doing business remains medium high. In terms of Senegal’s use of the CFA Franc, exchange transfer risk continues to be assessed as medium high. While being pegged to the Euro provides stability, the West African State’s complex debt situation raises questions about foreign currency reserves and reliance on external finance.

South Africa (ZAF)

South Africa’s overall risk score remains at medium, with no changes in any of the risk levels in this reporting period. First, the Political Violence risk remains high, still rooted in structural inequality and high unemployment. Structural risks such as unemployment and logistics bottlenecks remain strong, although power supply (loadshedding) constraints significantly eased after May 2025. South Africa’s political landscape has entered a phase of competitive stability. The Government of National Unity (GNU) has proven partly resilient; the February 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA) showcased a unified reform agenda despite internal frictions over the National Health Insurance (NHI) and the BELA Act. (Note: Previously, the coalition got tested by the budget, national health insurance, and the U.S. additional tariffs, which ensured that legal and regulatory risks to hit medium level). Political Interference remains at a medium-high rating, but the reformist wing of the coalition has successfully signaled policy continuity to international markets. A critical development in early 2026 was the reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In February 2026, the Trump administration signed a short-term extension of AGOA through December 31, 2026. While this avoids an immediate tariff cliff, the one-year duration (down from the traditional 10-year extensions) creates significant long-term investment uncertainty. The inability of the government to provide stimulus remained medium-high in this rating period due to fiscal constraints. Despite achieving a primary budget surplus, the total debt-to-GDP ratio (77%) continues to limit the state's capacity for aggressive fiscal intervention. South Africa was officially removed from the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) greylist on October 24, 2025 was a significant fiscal development leading to improved international reputation and lower transaction costs for businesses. The macroeconomic outlook remains positive in South Africa given moderate inflation and potential for further improvements in fiscal metrics and government debt stabilization. The risk of doing business, which is at medium-high, is helped by softened inflation and improving economic environment. Annual inflation fell to 3.5% y/y in January 2026 as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) targets its new 3% anchor. Capital buffers are sound, enabling banks to withstand shocks as banking sector vulnerability remains at medium-low, demonstrating the relative strength of the financial sector. Banks are well-capitalized and benefiting from improved sovereign risk profiles, though they remain cautious regarding high household debt levels.

Sudan (SDN)

Overall risk remains unchanged for Sudan as conflict continues. Sudan had sprung into civil war in April 2023 following a fight for power between the Sudanese Army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan serving as now de facto head of state, and the powerful paramilitary group known as the RSF (Rapid Support Forces), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Political violence, political interference and legal & regulatory risk all remain assessed as very high. Early January, Sudan’s Prime Minister Kamil Idris had confirmed the military-led governments full recapture of the country’s capital, Khartoum, after operating from the eastern city of Port Sudan for the past three years. According to the UN, approximately 5 mln people fled the capital city at the height of the war, where it is estimated at least 150,000 people have died since the early stages of the nation’s civil conflict. Towards the end of 2025, the U.S, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia had proposed a ceasefire plan to both the RSF and the military-led government. The plan in question suggested a three-month truce followed by peace talks which the head of the RSF, Dagalo, accepted. However, soon after accepting the proposal the RSF had attacked army territory with a barrage of drone strikes. Sudan’s army chief, Burhan, had made his rejection of the ceasefire clear.

In terms of the Sudanese economy, the IMF project GDP growth to increase in 2026 by 9.5% while continuing such trend into 2027 at 14.9%. Sudan’s Sovereign Council and cabinet had resumed their duties in the capital of Khartoum, approving the 2026 emergency budget which targets a 9% growth in GDP. The plan in question prioritizes spending on security ensuring that the Sudanese military requirements are met, while also steering focus towards infrastructure in war affected regions providing essential healthcare, water and electricity. Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim stated the 2026 budget appears unconventional, as plans lack the addition of new tax burdens in relation to the expansion of Sudan’s revenue base. In addition, the RSF’s recent siege on the Heglig oilfield in the South Korodofan Province has seen the removal of workers and government forces located at the site. Oil, being one of Sudan’s largest exports, is now expected to face further disruption. Inflationary pressure continues to show gradual stabilization, as the IMF project another slowing to 54.6% in 2026 and 39.9% in 2027. In the meantime, both the risk of doing business and the inability of the government to provide stimulus remain very high. Finally, sovereign non-payment risk is assessed as very high, as government debt remains unsustainably high at a forecasted 172.4% of GDP in 2026. However, the IMF expect to see a continued reduction over the coming years. In particular, the Chinese Embassy had agreed with the Sudanese government to cancel approximately USD 45 mln of debt, while also discussing the implementation of an approximate USD 29 mln donation from China to support vital infrastructure projects throughout Sudan.                                                                              

Tanzania (TZA)

Overall risk continues to be assessed as medium high. In late October 2025, presidential elections declared President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s victory in a landslide re-election, securing 97.66% of the total vote, meaning the CMM Party has governed since 1977. However, the blocking of the two main opposition leaders from participating in the polls, along with a political system dominated by one party since Tanzania’s independence, had become a catalyst for violent and widespread protests. Political violence is assessed as medium. The first demonstrations began in the economic hub of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, resulting in an internet blackout and authorities using force to deter protesters. The U.N. Human rights office believe that hundreds were killed in the violent protests, while opposition party CHADEMA claim that the figure was more than 1000 individuals killed. In light of the such security issues, Tanzania’s relationship with the U.S. has become unsettled as obstacles have become apparent for U.S. investment, following the ongoing repression of free speech and violence against civilians. Political interference remains high, while legal & regulatory risk holds its assessment of medium high.

Indications from the IMF project a real GDP growth of 6.3 % in 2026, while further estimating a small positive shift to 6.5% in 2027. Gold exports continue to drive strong economic growth, encouraging new mines to start production in late 2026, while construction of a new eastern port commenced in late 2025 after years of delays. Although, gold accounts for 80% of Tanzania’s mining, the exploitation of graphite, copper, cobalt, nickel and lithium deposits is becoming far more frequent and are particularly attractive to foreign investors. However, Tanzania’s tarnished global reputation caused by the presidential election turmoil may disrupt confirmation of inward investment.  Therefore, the inability of the government to provide stimulus has remained medium, while the risk of doing business continues at very high. The IMF’s forecasts indicate a positive movement for government debt, with 48.3% of GDP in 2026 and 46.7% in 2027. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Tanzania kept rates unchanged at 5.75% on January 8th 2026. The decision was made to support the African nation’s robust economic growth, alongside the projected inflation rate of 3.5% for 2026, which falls within the target range of 3% - 5%. Sovereign non-payment risk remains unchanged at medium high. In addition, exchange transfer is assessed as medium risk, as foreign exchange reserves continue their period of stability.

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