Continuum Economics Calendar July 2026

June 30, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2026.

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3

June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

ECB Sin(a)tra Preview: Should the ECB Only Consider My Way?

June 26, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

The speed and manner in which the ECB adopted a hawkish stance is response to the Middle East conflict was no surprise; it has many precedents, some of which have led to policy errors which we think may be being repeated at this juncture.  Indeed, despite friendlier price and costs signals, the ECB

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

June 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

DM and EM FX Outlook: Cross-Currents for H2 and 2027

June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ

Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?

June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC

·       Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to

Germany/France/Italy and Spain: Growth and Inflation Outlooks

June 22, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

·       We have retained our 2026 GDP picture of 0.3% (Our Forecasts below) and actually pared back that for next year, with more and more signs that China is continuing to ship cheap products to Germany (lower energy prices post Iran war still help 2027).  For France, we have made a 0.3% do

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question

June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·      Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD

DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?

June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

·        Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled.  Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non

ECB Preview (Jun 11): Words Not Deeds the Focus

June 3, 2026 10:23 AM UTC

Aware of repeating ourselves (again), it is the case that the next ECB Council meeting will be more important for what is said than what is done.  In fact, a 25 bp official rate hike is virtually nailed on irrespective of how events in the Middle East may fare in coming days.  But the ECB comments

EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?

June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking.  As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe

AI Labs IPO Fever

June 1, 2026 12:58 PM UTC

·       Space X could get an initial good reception, but then go flat waiting for the Open AI and Anthropic IPO’s.  Space X is an AI enterprise play rather than space and xAI is lagging. This could mean a modest correction in the U.S. equity market at some stage in the summer, but then the

Taiwan: Low Invasion Risk Post Trump Visit

May 29, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage.  This stick and carrot approach is our baseline (Figure 1).  Wi

ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?

May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC

The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11.  As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b

DM Government Bond Markets in Limbo

May 27, 2026 12:22 PM UTC

·       DM central bank meetings in June will be crucial, with a high risk of a 25bps ECB hike to warn against 2nd round effects from higher oil prices and a BOJ 25bps hike as part of the ongoing normalisation.  However, the tone that the Fed’s Warsh will set will also be key.  The bigges

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2026

May 27, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2026.

EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?

May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise.  Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4

Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs

May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2

ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

Eurozone: In Dire Straits?

May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing.  High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not

Straits of Hormuz Scenarios

May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S.  This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027.  The al

ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2026

April 29, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2026.

Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected

April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t

Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets

April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

•    Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing.  This dive

ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!

April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous.  Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati

EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?

April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led.  Indeed, thi

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?

April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing.  Indeed, part of a broad

Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026

April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

·       Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,

Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?

April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC

Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a

DM Central Bank Signals Awaited

April 15, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

·       Fed/ECB and BOE meetings will likely see concern over the potential 2nd round inflation effects from the Iran war, but forecasts seeing inflation coming down in 2027 and no imminent signals of tightening from the ECB/BOE – our baseline remains for easing later in the year, as energy

Eurozone: ECB Downplaying Supply of Credit as it Focuses on its Cost

April 14, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Even amid increasing suggestions that the Middle East conflict will reap marked real economy damage that should limit the length and extent of any inflation surge, markets are still pricing in almost three 25 bp ECB hikes in the coming year.  We think this is still very excessive and reflects an ou

Iran Blockade and What Next?

April 13, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

·       Though the U.S. is introducing a blockade on Iran oil exports, we think the U.S. and Iran remain reluctant to restart the war.  How Iran responds to the U.S. blockade is important.  It could choose to respond by attacking Gulf energy installations before or after the 2-week ceasefir

Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand

April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re

2-Week Ceasefire, Then?

April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC

·       The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll.  While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war.  The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w

2yr and The Iran War

April 7, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       2yr yields can edge lower from current less elevated levels, as DM central banks continue to try to calm fears of near-term rate hikes outside of the BOJ/RBA.  However, the key swing factor remains the length of the Iran war, as that will determine the trajectory of energy prices in

Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?

April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War.  In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (

Iran War: Invasion Risks

March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf.  Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation.  WTI oil prices would

EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?

March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB.  Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T