Venezuela: Oil and Geopolitics

January 5, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

·       Venezuela’s oil production will likely take years to increase substantively due to poor infrastructure, the need for substantive investment, and a lack of democratic political stability.  In terms of geopolitics, operations in Venezuela reinforce the Trump administration’s pivot

AI and U.S. Productivity

January 5, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

·        Structural labor and overall productivity will be boosted if current AI adoption is sustained at a pace quicker than the adoption of the internet.  However, not all areas of the U.S. economy are exposed to AI benefits, as manual work can only be replaced by humanoid robots with maj

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Continuum Economics Calendar January 2026

December 19, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar January 2026.

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

December 19, 2025 10:31 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

ECB Review: On Hold Message to Convert to Easing on Disinflation

December 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

·       The ECB increased its 2026 GDP and inflation forecast and appears happy with current policy rate levels.  However, still tight financial conditions, plus easing wage growth, point to disinflation and growth disappointment.  We see this switch the ECB from an on hold message to easin

DM FX Outlook: Scope for USD decline against JPY, AUD and NOK

December 18, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: We expect some modest USD losses across the board over the next couple of years, but there is much more scope for losses against the JPY, AUD and NOK than the other G10 currencies, as yield spreads have moved dramatically in favour of these currencies, and the currencies

DM Rates Outlook: 2026 Yield Curve Steepening Before 2027 Flattening

December 17, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

·       Multi quarter, we still look for 50bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.35%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the assumed slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium ve

Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?

December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

·        The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026.  However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data.  We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a

Eurozone Outlook: Running to Keep Fiscally Still?

December 11, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

·       Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we retain our below consensus activity forecast for 2026 but see a fiscally driven pick-up into 2027. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but the economy has actual

ECB Preview (Dec 18): Still in Good Place – or Even Better?

December 9, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

A fourth successive stable policy decision will be the almost inevitable outcome of the ECB Council meeting verdict on Dec 18, with the discount rate left at 2.0%.  The likely unanimous vote will mask splits about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Co

December 8, 2025 8:50 AM UTC

·       The AI story has driven broad momentum in the U.S. equity market, but will likely become narrower driver in 2026 and 2027, as not all big AI/tech companies will generate clear explosive revenue from areas outside cloud computing and semiconductor chips. Companies that are also depende

China’s Hidden Gold Buying: Why?

November 28, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

Speculation has been growing in the gold market that the surge in unrecorded gold purchases could be linked to China.
Overall, some unreported buying of gold by China could have occurred in 2025 and also in 2022-24. This could be a combination of wanting to avoid upsetting Trump during a tense U.S.-C

Continuum Economics Calendar December 2025

November 28, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2025.

ECB: Financial Stability Review Less Complacent than Council?

November 27, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Council as to where inflation risks lie. Regardless,  as the account of the Oct 29-30 Council meeting chimed with comments from the meeting’s press conference, it does seem to us as i

U.S. Corporate Bonds Into 2026

November 26, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

·       Though U.S. corporate bond spreads are tight, absolute yield levels are reasonable due to higher U.S. Treasury yields than most of the post GFC period.  The main risk remains of a U.S. recession, though economic data is more consistent with a soft landing and we have reduced the prob

Japan Aging: Consumption Lessons for Eurozone/China?

November 24, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

·       China will likely suffer slowing consumption from population aging in the coming years, as consumption per head falls for over 55’s and large scale immigration is not a likelihood. China’s household wealth is also heavily concentrated in falling illiquid residential property. Chin

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

Financial Stability Risks: Vulnerable To A Recession

November 17, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

The November Fed financial stability review highlights continued concern over hedge funds and insurance company leverage, while the IMF GSFR is concerned about U.S. equity market overvaluation and growing links between banks and non-bank financial intermediaries.  However, the main adverse shock wo

ECB – In a Good Place or Just Complacent?

November 14, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

The ECB is of the view that downside growth risks have dissipated somewhat, this possibly helped by its recent actions which it suggests leave its current policy stance in a good place.  However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s alleged resilience, we think, the

EZ Rates: 2026 ECB Easing But 2027 French Crisis?

November 11, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

·       Financial conditions are tighter than suggested by a 2% ECB depo rate, which will both dampen an EZ economic pick-up and cause further disinflation.  We see the ECB delivering two further 25bps cuts to a 1.5% ECB depo rate, which can mean a further decline in 2yr Bund yields.  Howev

U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued

November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

·       We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing.  Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation

October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

·         The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments.  The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app

ECB Review: Hedging its Bets, Hoping to Stay in a Good Place

October 30, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

There ie nothing tangible in the ECB update today to suggest that a further easing is likely at the next meeting on Dec 17-18.  However, amid a hint of what we think is a complacent upgrade about the EZ’s resilience alongside a perceived reduction in global risks, the easing window has not been c

October 21, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

As with recent Council meetings, what is important when the ECB gives its next (almost certain) stable verdict on Oct 30, is not what it says.  Instead, in particular, it is how much the impression is left that the easing window has not closed. The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has trou

October 17, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

The ECB is clearly split about whether policy has troughed or not, this mainly a result of differences within the Council as to where inflation risks lie.  Hawks perceive upside risks emerging while the dovish camp feels the opposite.  These divisions are likely to magnify when the ECB updates its

ECB Council Meeting Account Review: Complacency Rules the Day as Financial Conditions Tighten!

October 9, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

Unsurprisingly there was little in the account of the ECB Council Meeting of 10-11 September to suggest any rush to change policy with it clear that members on both sides of the hawks vs doves debate wanted more data amid what was considered to be great uncertainty.  Thus, the ECB offered little in

France:  Prime Minister – Another One Bites the Dust

October 6, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Either side of the English Channel, politicians are competing to see whether France or the UK can provide a prime minister with the shortest time in power.  In the UK that was Liz Truss whose 49 days at the helm of the government in 2022 has now been surpassed by French PM Lecornu who has resigned

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

AI/Humanoid Robots and Disinflation?

October 1, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

·       Overall, a number of forces from the AI wave will impact inflation.  Power demand could push up power prices, but productivity enhancements and product innovation could be disinflationary like Information and Communications technology (ICT).  One other key uncertainty on a 1-5 year

Trump Tariffs: China, Mexico and Semiconductors

September 30, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (60% probability) remains that a U.S./China trade deal will be agreed in Q4/Q1 2026 and it is possible though unlikely that this could be announced at the Trump/Xi meeting at the October 31 APEC summit – China requests that the U.S. changes policy on Taiwan could slo

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2025

September 29, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2025.

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

September 24, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction

September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

Equities Outlook: Correction Then Up In 2026

September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

•    The U.S. equity market’s bullishness reflects good corporate earnings reality, buybacks and the AI story.  However, we feel that the U.S. economy can deteriorate still further in the coming months, as the lagged effects of tariffs boost inflation and restrain spending/hurt corporate ea

Eurozone Outlook: Resilience or Irrelevance?

September 22, 2025 9:49 AM UTC

··       Yet again, and amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the ec

September 16, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

In the unexpected scenario of an early death, Putin and Xi have no clear successors, and any new Russia or China leader would have to spend time building domestic strength and compromising on external goals. Erdogan also has no clear successors, which could create political uncertainty. For Trump su

Taiwan: Grey Warfare or Naval Quarantine?

September 12, 2025 11:15 AM UTC

  ·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage. With invasion being too high risk for President Xi (with the U.S. main

September 11, 2025 2:08 PM UTC

A second successive stable policy decision was the almost inevitable outcome of this month’s ECB Council meeting resulting in the first consecutive pause in the current easing cycle, with the discount rate left at 2.0%.  Also as expected, the ECB offered little in terms of policy guidance; after

September 10, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Steeper yield curves are a function of monetary easing cycles, budget deficits, lower central bank holdings of government bonds, a move towards pre GFC real rates and shifting demand from pensions funds and life insurance companies.  Scope exists for further steepening in the U.S., EZ and UK with m

France: Kicking the Fiscal Can (Again)

September 9, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

That France has seen the departure of yet another prime minister is no surprise, hence why financial markets took the confidence vote in its stride.  Admittedly, French sovereign spreads and yields have risen in the last month, but even so the actual level of bond yields remains well below that of

ECB Council Meeting Preview (Sep 11): No Change and Little Guidance

September 3, 2025 9:20 AM UTC

A second successive stable policy decision is very likely at next week’s ECB Council meeting resulting in the first consecutive pause in the current easing cycle, with the discount rate left at 2.0%.  We see the ECB offering little in terms of policy guidance; after all, in July the Council sugge