ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

Eurozone: In Dire Straits?

May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing.  High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not

Straits of Hormuz Scenarios

May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S.  This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027.  The al

ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2026

April 29, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2026.

Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected

April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t

Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets

April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

•    Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing.  This dive

ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!

April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous.  Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati

EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Headline Surges Again as Core Stabilises?

April 21, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrived with the final March HICP data in line with expectations, as the headline rate spiked higher to 2.6% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring that this March surge was purely energy-led.  Indeed, thi

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): Softer Even Before Iran Conflict?

April 20, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We have been critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was slowing.  Indeed, part of a broad

Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026

April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

·       Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,

Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?

April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC

Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a

DM Central Bank Signals Awaited

April 15, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

·       Fed/ECB and BOE meetings will likely see concern over the potential 2nd round inflation effects from the Iran war, but forecasts seeing inflation coming down in 2027 and no imminent signals of tightening from the ECB/BOE – our baseline remains for easing later in the year, as energy

Eurozone: ECB Downplaying Supply of Credit as it Focuses on its Cost

April 14, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Even amid increasing suggestions that the Middle East conflict will reap marked real economy damage that should limit the length and extent of any inflation surge, markets are still pricing in almost three 25 bp ECB hikes in the coming year.  We think this is still very excessive and reflects an ou

Iran Blockade and What Next?

April 13, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

·       Though the U.S. is introducing a blockade on Iran oil exports, we think the U.S. and Iran remain reluctant to restart the war.  How Iran responds to the U.S. blockade is important.  It could choose to respond by attacking Gulf energy installations before or after the 2-week ceasefir

Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand

April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re

2-Week Ceasefire, Then?

April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC

·       The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll.  While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war.  The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w

2yr and The Iran War

April 7, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       2yr yields can edge lower from current less elevated levels, as DM central banks continue to try to calm fears of near-term rate hikes outside of the BOJ/RBA.  However, the key swing factor remains the length of the Iran war, as that will determine the trajectory of energy prices in

Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?

April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War.  In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (

Iran War: Invasion Risks

March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf.  Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation.  WTI oil prices would

EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?

March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB.  Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2026

March 27, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2026.

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?

March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data.  We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections.  But both it

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

March 26, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026

March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th

Eurozone Outlook: Conflicts of Interest

March 24, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       Under our more likely view of limited further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely falling back to the pre-war levels within a year, with the current situation very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to Russian gas as

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

Iran War Scenarios Updated

March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

·       Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory.  A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for

ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!

March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u

Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran

March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC

•    The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely.  China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from

ECB Preview (Mar 19): No Longer in a Good Place?

March 11, 2026 2:53 PM UTC

With no change in policy expected, what the ECB says is the most important aspect of the ECB meeting next week, both explicitly and implicitly via its updated forecasts (Figure 1).  Both are likely to underscore that rate hikes are certainly possible if the almost inevitable inflation rise proves t

Iran War Scenarios

March 11, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·        Our central scenario (75%) remains a multi-week war in Iran. Trump loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices prompts U.S. to declare victory before end of March.  Israel and Iran would most likely agree an effective ceasefire.  The ceasefire would be fragile, however, as it w

Trump’s Fiscal Dominance

March 10, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

·       Voting will be done by 12 FOMC members and while Kevin Warsh could mellow some centrists, 5 district Fed presidents and Barr/Jefferson are at the Fed until at least 2031. Warsh may merely bring interest rate cuts sooner from June or potentially engineer a small dip below the 3% neutra

Gulf Countries U.S. Investment Deals Risks

March 9, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Lower budget revenue and a multi-year hit to tourism and the Gulf role as air transit hubs, could see delays and reduction in some parts of the Gulf states USD3.4 trillion deals with the Trump administration. The economic effects on the U.S. would likely be small and the geopolitics b

Markets and the Iran War

March 4, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

•    The Trump administration’s objective appears to be pivoting from regime change to hurting Iran ballistic missile capabilities, which argues for a 2-4 week war rather than a prolonged war.  However, the most intense missile battles will likely occur in the next one week and markets are

EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return

March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%

Iran: What Length For War?

March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

·       If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism.  If the war is more prolonged (ie months)  then oil/gas supplies could be sque

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2026

February 26, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2026.

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation as Goods May Soon Take Core Below Target

February 25, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is possible that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we see the headline rate edging up to 1.8% in the February flash mainly due to ener

Iran: Limited U.S. Attack?

February 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

 ·       Iran authorities appear reluctant to meet the Trump administration’s demand to stop nuclear fuel production for potential weapons.  This increases the odds of a limited attack by the U.S. on Iran to 30-40% (Figure 1), which could occur as soon as this weekend.  The most likely I

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Strike Down

February 20, 2026 4:31 PM UTC

·        The 6-3 vote by the Supreme court and full ruling against reciprocal tariffs means that the Trump administration will likely resort to other tariffs for negotiating leverage.  However, the Trump administration will also pressure to codify existing trade framework deals that have be

Cuba: Pressure Grows

February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime.  While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex

EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump

February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action.  Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,

ECB: Papering Over the Cracks

February 5, 2026 2:51 PM UTC

·       As widely expected the ECB kept the policy rate unchanged at the February meeting.  The broad message remains that the ECB Council is comfortable with current policy rates, which provides short-term forward guidance of no change in rates.  This message came from the ECB statement an