EM Country Research

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March 21, 2025

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As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

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Trump Product and Reciprocal Tariffs
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

It appears that we will get bad news from April 2 on extra tariffs before any good news.  Firstly, the announcement effect of tariffs for many countries and extra products will hurt U.S. business and consumer sentiment.  Secondly, part of the reason for tariffs is extra tax revenue and to try to s

March 20, 2025

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SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

March 19, 2025

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South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t

March 17, 2025

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China: Mixed Early 2025 Data and Policy Stimulus
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 9:17 AM UTC

Headline industrial production and retail sales were better than expected, but the breakdown of the data shows a mixed picture for consumption and residential investment remains a negative drag on GDP before the 20% U.S. tariffs hits.  Meanwhile, though the weekend policy announcement on boosting d

March 14, 2025

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SA MPC Preview: 25 bps Rate Cut on March 20 is Likely, But a Very Close Call Due to Uncertainties
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 8:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation in January stood at 3.2% in January, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remai

March 13, 2025

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Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

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Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Models would suggest that the current and prospective direct tariff impact should slow GDP growth to a 1.5% pace, which should see slow Fed easing in 2025 given the boost to inflation. However, the policy uncertainty means that business and consumer behaviour could see a large adverse hit that keeps

March 12, 2025

Brazil CPI Review: 1.3% Monthly Growth, with Seasonal Impacts
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 10:43 PM UTC

Brazil's February CPI increased by 1.3%, the highest in 22 years, largely driven by the removal of subsidized electricity bills, which boosted Housing by 4.4%. The year-over-year inflation rose to 5.1%, above the BCB's target. Key contributors included Education (up 4.4%) and Food and Beverages (up

March 11, 2025

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China: PBOC Slow Cuts with 5% Nominal GDP
Paying Article

March 11, 2025 8:45 AM UTC

•    The PBOC will likely cut slowly and gradually, as China seeks to avoid Yuan depreciation that could worsen the trade war with the U.S.  Additionally, MOF last week forecast nominal GDP of 5%, which with a real GDP target of 5% means that MOF is also forecasting zero inflation.  Close to

March 10, 2025

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Trump and Dollar Policies
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 6:04 AM UTC

   The Trump administration could decide to more broadly talk the USD down or less likely try to reach a cooperative Mar A Lago accord with big DM and EM countries. A more cohesive alternative is a forced currency deal for countries to appreciate their currencies to avoid more tariffs and withdraw

March 06, 2025

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Third Straight Cut: CBRT Reduced the Key Rate to 42.5%
Paying Article

March 6, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation softened more-than-expectations to 39.1% in February, the lowest in 20 months, the easing cycle continued on March 6 as Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 42.5%. The decision was supported by domestic demand remaining at disinflationary

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China: Only Moderate Fiscal Stimulus
Freemium Article

March 6, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

China announced some fiscal stimulus to help meet the expected 5% GDP target for 2025.  Overall, we have not been surprised by the fiscal stimulus measures announced so far from the March NPC, that have been towards the lower end of expectations.  However, officials on Thursday have hinted that mo

March 04, 2025

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South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.6% in Q4
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew modestly by 0.6% YoY in Q4 2024 driven by strong performances by agricultural sector and finance. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on March 4, demand side of the economy was lifted by household consumption expenditu

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.  

March 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Decelerated More Than Expectations in February, Now Below 40% YoY
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 3 that the inflation softened to 39.1% y/y in February from 42.1% y/y in January. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than-expected hike in minimum wage in January contin

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EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

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Trump Tariffs and U.S. Business and Consumer Sentiment
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

 •    Mexico and Canada are trying to frantically find solutions to delay across the board tariffs again, though the U.S. is hinting that the rate could be less than 25%.  China extra 10% tariff remains likely, as the U.S. increases trade pressure on China.  More tariffs also remain highly

February 28, 2025

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As Predicted, Turkiye's 2024 GDP Growth Hit 3.2% YoY
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 28 that Turkish economy expanded by 3.0% in Q4 2024, and 3.2% YoY in full-year 2024, backed by accelerated private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates.

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China: How Much U.S. Trade and Taiwan Pressure?
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

·       Trump eventually wants a trade deal with China and this could occur by the end of 2025, but the U.S. will ask for penalties if targets for U.S. imports to China are not met and this will lead to difficult negotiations. Reciprocal and product specific tariffs on China are also likely i

February 27, 2025

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

February 27, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

February 26, 2025

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South Africa's Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.2% in January
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global

India GDP Preview: Q3FY25 Growth - A Tepid Rebound
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

India's GDP saw a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2024, growing at 6.3% due to increased government spending. This rebound, however, still falls short of previous highs, reflecting the economy's reliance on state intervention amid weak private sector and consumer activity. Despite fiscal effo

February 25, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

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China: More U.S. Tariffs, No Yuan Depreciation?
Paying Article

February 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    China is currently reluctant to see Yuan depreciation as it wants to get the U.S. to the negotiating table for a revised phase 1 trade deal and also over concerns about domestic capital outflows.  Cuts to the 7-day reverse repo rate are now likely to be in 10bps steps and we look for the

February 24, 2025

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Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation.  This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,

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Reciprocal Risks: The Stakes of U.S. Tariffs for India's Export Sectors
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 5:58 AM UTC

As U.S. President Donald Trump proposes reciprocal tariffs targeting nations like India, which impose higher duties on American goods, the trade relations between the U.S. and India face new tensions. This policy pivot coincides with efforts by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen bilat

February 19, 2025

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U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors?
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

·        Tariff reality in the spring and summer will likely be both tariff threats to negotiate trade deals and permanently higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally to raise revenue for the U.S. government – along Peter Navarro guidance to Trump.  The macro effects of this cou

February 17, 2025

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Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:28 AM UTC

·       President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, both as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1 and the process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

February 14, 2025

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China: Private Sector Balance Sheet Recession?
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

  Overall, we maintain the view that parts of China’s household sector are showing signs of a balance sheet debt consolidation, due to the excess buildup of debt in the past 20 years relative to disposable income.  The non-financial corporate sector is more difficult to interpret, due to strengt

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BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

February 13, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

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India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.

February 12, 2025

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India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment

Brazil CPI Review: Mixed Signs from January Inflation
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC

Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.

February 11, 2025

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Trump’s Tariffs: Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

 The 25% Steel and Aluminum tariff could have small to modest adverse inflation and GDP growth impacts on the U.S., but the prospect of reciprocal and more product and country tariffs create trade policy uncertainty/supply chain disruption and paperwork problems.  This could amplify the impact of

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Europe’s Gas Problem Again?
Freemium Article

February 11, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The ECB staff forecasts on March 6 will be revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, due to the surge in wholesale gas prices.  However, the ECB will likely take the view that 2 round effects from higher gas prices on balance are unlikely to boost core inflation (especially given wage tracker softness) an

February 10, 2025

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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

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Markets and Trump’s Early Days
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

  The early days of the new Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the on-off tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market has helped provide an anchor.  U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and

February 08, 2025

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Banxico Review: 50 bps Cut as Expected
Freemium Article

February 8, 2025 9:39 PM UTC

Banxico cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, with a cautious stance and a split vote. Inflation has fallen but remains above target, expected to converge to 3.0% by Q3 2026. Global risks, including Trump’s tariff threats, add uncertainty. Despite economic weakness, some monetary tightening may s

February 07, 2025

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Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

February 06, 2025

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Fixing The U.S. Trade Deficit
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 2:30 PM UTC

  New U.S. trade deals will likely make slow progress in reducing bilateral trade deficits as the underlying drivers behind the U.S. trade deficit are macro forces.  While the U.S. economy outperforms other major trading partners; the value of the USD remains overvalued and as long as tariffs are

February 04, 2025

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China/U.S. Trade War and next To Talks?
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 10:02 AM UTC

China’s targeted and measured counter tariffs against the U.S. are designed to push the U.S. towards the negotiating table on the wider issue of the U.S./China trade deficit.  Negotiating will likely start into the spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new ob

February 03, 2025

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Can Tech and Productivity Cushion China’s Long-Term Growth Slowdown?
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

 While innovation from China’s technology initiatives can provide help to cross over productivity, the benefit will likely only be modest due to the downgrading of the private sector in China and the lack of openness to inward trade.  The structural slowdown in capital productivity will dominate

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Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

January 31, 2025

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India Budget Preview: Balancing Growth and Fiscal Prudence: What to Expect from Budget 2025
Freemium Article

January 31, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

The FY26 Budget comes at a crucial time for India’s economy, requiring a delicate balance between fiscal prudence and economic stimulus. As GDP growth moderates, inflation continues to impact disposable incomes, and global uncertainties persist, the government is expected to focus on targeted meas

January 29, 2025

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Continue Decelerating in January
Paying Article

January 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 44.4% annually in December, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 41-42% y/y in January, which will be announced on February 3. We think lagged impacts of monetary tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than expected hike in

January 27, 2025

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Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown
Paying Article

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

January 23, 2025

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Trump and Markets
Paying Article

January 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

Global markets will be driven by policies and current valuation in 2025, especially new Trump administration policies.  Trump could jawbone markets for a lower value of the USD and lower oil prices, which could have a temporary modest impact (joint US/Japan FX intervention is possible) but the stru