EM Country Research

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July 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte

July 02, 2025

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Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal

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South Africa: Coalition Under Pressure After President Ramaphosa Fires DA Deputy
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA

July 01, 2025

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Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam.  This could still be fol

June 30, 2025

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U.S. and Asia Defense Partners
Paying Article

June 30, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

 ·        Japan, S Korea and Australia could eventually agree to some extra commitment to increase (self) defence spending in the next 5-10 years though perhaps not targets like NATO countries.  This could come as part of the trade deal negotiations currently underway.  Japan and S Korea

June 27, 2025

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Mexico: Back Toward Neutral Policy Rates
Freemium Article

June 27, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

Banxico has cut by 50bps to 8.00%, while also signalling in its statement that further easing will now be data dependent. Our forecast is for easing to move to a 25bps pace and to come once a quarter – most likely in September and December. Some improvement in the monthly inflation trajectory woul

June 26, 2025

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Ukraine War Update: War Continuing Probability is Now at 70%
Freemium Article

June 26, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Our baseline scenario (70%) is based on the war continuing after talks fail since president Putin insists on his peace terms. President Trump is reluctant to threaten or implement of secondary tariffs on Russia oil buyers, that would really pressure president Putin. The U.S. financing o

June 25, 2025

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June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

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Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

June 24, 2025

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

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EMEA Outlook: Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics Continue to Dominate
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food prices, and global uncertainties. We see growth to be 1.2% and 1.7%

June 23, 2025

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Iran: Measured Next Steps?
Paying Article

June 23, 2025 3:17 PM UTC

  A measured or modest Iran retaliation could be used by the U.S. to seek a path back towards negotiation.  Israel would likely want to continue to degrade Iran nuclear and military facilities, but the U.S. could eventually pressure Israel to stop.  This is our baseline, though the military attac

June 20, 2025

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Commodities Outlook: Policy Realignment
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

In Q2 2025, eight OPEC+ countries pledged a faster oil supply hike, motivated by market share losses, internal frictions, and geopolitical shifts. However, actual output has fallen short due to overproduction offsets, domestic consumption, and capacity limits. Further gradual increases are expected,

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China Outlook: Reasonable but Unbalanced Growth Trade
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

•    China GDP growth remains reasonable though unbalanced.  Net exports will take a hit from the trade freeze in April/May, with the impact likely to ease in H2 with the trade truce.  We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tari

June 19, 2025

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Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold
Freemium Article

June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC

Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period.  Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate.  We would suspect

June 18, 2025

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South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY
Paying Article

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do

June 16, 2025

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China: Retail Sales Reasonable
Paying Article

June 16, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

•    Retail sales in May was helped by government trade in programs, but the overall retail sales momentum is reasonable.  The industrial production slowdown looks to have been driven by the U.S. tariff chaos in April/May, which has become less adverse after the Geneva trade truce with the U.

June 14, 2025

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Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
Paying Article

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

June 13, 2025

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India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger
Freemium Article

June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

June 12, 2025

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Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY
Paying Article

June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i

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Trump Tariffs: China and July 9 Reciprocal Deadline
Paying Article

June 12, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

 We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tariff to 15-20% imposed by the U.S., most likely agreed in Q4 2025 and to be implemented in 2026.  However, a 35% probability exist of no deal and this could eventually mean higher tariffs (Fig

June 10, 2025

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U.S. Deficit and Government Debt Concerns
Paying Article

June 10, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

 The large U.S. budget deficit has helped push up 10yr real yields to 2% in 2024/2025, but both the budget deficit (heavy issuance) and government debt trajectories (sustainability and rating concerns) are key going forward if the 10yr budget bill passed is similar to the House Bill.  Foreign acco

June 09, 2025

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China Disinflation Rather than Deflation
Freemium Article

June 9, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

May China CPI remains negative Yr/Yr, but the breakdown is consistent with disinflation rather deflation.  Deflation could end up as a drag on the economy, but while growth remains close to the 5% target and CPI is regarded as disinflation rather than deflation, further policy easing will be slow.

June 05, 2025

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

June 5, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand.  

June 04, 2025

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China Banking Problems
Paying Article

June 4, 2025 8:32 AM UTC

China is suffering a credit demand problem from households overexposed to property and private businesses that are cautious.  Meanwhile, the latest IMF banking stress tests shows sections of the banking system remain weak and this is restraining lending.  We remain watchful of money and credit tre

June 03, 2025

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Moderate GDP Growth for South Africa in Q1: 0.1% QoQ, 0.8% YoY
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew moderately by 0.1% QoQ and 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2025. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on June 3, despite growth in agriculture, transport and finance, a strain on the mining and manufacturing industri

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Nato Summit 5% Target and Trump
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 10:48 AM UTC

Trump’s natural instincts will likely see extra pressure applied on Europe in the coming weeks to commit to 5%, but we do not see existential threats from Trump.  In the end, our baseline is that NATO will agree a “soft” aim of 5% (3.5% hard military spending and 1.5% infrastructure/cybersecu

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Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to the Lowest Since November 2021 with 35.4% YoY in May
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that the inflation softened to 35.4% y/y in April from 37.9% y/y in April. We think monetary tightening, fiscal measures and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure. Despite this, inflationary risks remain tilted to th

June 02, 2025

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India GDP Review: Growth Outpaces Expectations as Q4 GDP Hits Four-Quarter High
Paying Article

June 2, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.4% y/y in Q4 FY25, beating expectations and capping full-year growth at 6.5%. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment strengthened. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-bas

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EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Freemium Article

June 2, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

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Trump’s 50% Steel And Aluminum: Negotiating Leverage?
Paying Article

June 2, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

•    President Donald Trump increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% is not just about boosting the steel and aluminum industry.  It also a demonstration that Trump remains in control of tariffs and can aggressively change tariffs to increase negotiating leverage.  It is a mess

May 30, 2025

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Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit

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Country Risk in MENA
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Syria, Kuwait and Turkiye.

May 29, 2025

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Court Stops Trump Reciprocal and Fentanyl Tariff
Freemium Article

May 29, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

•    The Trump administration will likely follow a multi-track response by appealing the judgement but also fast-tracking section 232 product tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.  The administration could also consider section 301 or 122 tariffs (the latter 15% for 150 days against c

May 23, 2025

India Q4 FY25 GDP Preview: Growth Rebounds, But Underlying Demand Still Uneven
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

While the Q4 FY25 GDP figures indicate a rebound, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain. The economy's heavy dependence on government spending raises concerns about long-term fiscal health. India's economic recovery in Q4 FY25 reflects a partial rebound facilitated by government expenditure

India CPI Review: Soft Inflation Persists, RBI Gets Breathing Room
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 10:31 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, its lowest since July 2019, led by falling food prices and broad-based disinflation. With CPI below target for a third month, the RBI is poised for more rate cuts amid slowing global growth.

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Turkiye Inflation Report: CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast at 24%
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 22, and kept its inflation forecast constant for 2025 at 24%. CBRT governor Karahan signalled to maintain a tight stance until a permanent decline in inflation is sustained and price stabili

May 21, 2025

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As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April
Paying Article

May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy

May 16, 2025

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Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab

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Big EM’s: Cyclical Tariff Hit V Structural Drivers
Freemium Article

May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

China, India and Brazil are all seeing cyclical slowdown for varying reasons, with China likely to be hardest hit by adverse net exports due to Trump’s tariff wars. Though financial repression in China can allow further fiscal stimulus, the household sector and residential property investment are

May 15, 2025

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U.S./China Trade Truce Reduce Downside and Extra Stimulus Prospects
Paying Article

May 15, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

The alternative hard landing scenario in China has been reduced significantly with the trade truce with the U.S.  However, China will still have to cope with a minimum 30% overall tariff, with only around a 10% reduction in the fentanyl tariff likely to be agreed in the coming months.  Our baselin

May 14, 2025

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SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in April
Paying Article

May 14, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, we foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 2.8-2.9% in April, which will be announced on May 21. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, return of power cuts (loadshedding), and

May 12, 2025

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Optimistic CBR Publishes Summary of Key Rate Decision on May 12
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 5:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of the key rate decision on May 12, showing CBR’s views on economic developments. CBR highlighted in its report that “The current inflationary pressures eased in Q1, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pa

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Trump Tariffs: China and UK Precedents
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 8:02 AM UTC

 The U.S./China have announced major reductions in reciprocal tariffs to 10% with other measures postponed for 90 days.  Though the U.S. is still imposing an extra 20% due to fentanyl, China will likely make some moves that could also help to reduce this.  This is in line with our previous thinki

Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules
Freemium Article

May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is

May 09, 2025

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A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

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India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

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Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

May 08, 2025

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Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak
Freemium Article

May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides.  The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last