Trump-Putin Summit: No Ceasefire Agreement, Possible Concessions Discussed

U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the fate of war in Ukraine. The meeting lasted three hours, but did not yield an immediate ceasefire agreement as expected. After the meeting, Trump and Putin both signaled what could happen next in Ukraine as Trump mentioned Moscow had offered to freeze most of the front lines in Ukraine in exchange for Kyiv withdrawing from the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk while Putin signaled no movement in Russia's long-held demands, which also include a veto on Kyiv's desired membership in NATO. (Note: CNBC cited that Zelenskyy had rejected leaving Donestk and Luhansk ahead of the summit, saying this would deprive Ukraine of key defensive positions and allow Moscow to launch further offensives into Ukraine. Kyiv currently holds about one quarter of Donetsk, including its so- called fortress belt of cities which has been its main fortified defensive line since 2014).

According to sources, Trump agreed with Putin that a peace deal should be sought without the prior ceasefire that Ukraine and its European allies had demanded, which was a change from his position before the summit, when he said he would not be happy unless a ceasefire was agreed on.

The security guarantees would be made in the scenario that Russia were to invade Ukraine again after a would-be peace deal, the sources added. The sources  highlighted that those protections, as discussed by the White House, would not include NATO membership — despite European leaders saying in a joint statement on August 16 that Ukraine should be given the right to seek NATO membership. Putin, who has opposed involving foreign ground forces, said he agreed with Trump that Ukraine's security must be ensured, with no further details.

After the meeting, in a call with Zelensky on August 16, Trump reportedly offered support for U.S. security assurance for Ukraine after the war, a shift from his stance that Europe should bear the burden of protecting the country, though the specifics were not clear. On August 17, Trump called on social media for Zelensky to give up on the prospect of NATO membership and accept Russia’s control of Crimea, saying the Ukrainian president can “end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants.”

Zelensky is now scheduled to meet with Trump on August 18 while we feel the summit had left Ukraine feeling uneasy since it is now obvious that Ukraine will lose some parts of its land to Russia, Russia will likely secure no NATO membership for Ukraine and Crimea will stay as Russian soil. (Note: European leaders announced on August 17 that they would join Zelensky when he meets with Trump at the White House, as they strive to present a united front against Russia). 

Trump officials hinted at possible concessions by Putin, but gave no concrete details. Steve Witkoff, an envoy for Trump to Middle East, told CNN on August 17 that Putin had edged toward some concessions in talks.  Witkoff said that five regions of Ukraine were discussed in the meeting, and that the Russians had offered concessions. “The Russians made some concessions at the table with regard to all five of those regions. There is an important discussion to be had with regard to Donetsk and what would happen there, and that discussion is going to specifically be detailed on August 18.” Trump has offered Zelensky vague security guarantees modeled on Article 5 of the NATO pact, which stipulates that an attack on one ally would be defended as an attack on all. Witkoff stated that Putin had embraced this idea. Trump, mirroring Putin’s wishes, has said that Ukraine has no chance of joining NATO.

In addition to Witkoff, secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that Russia and Ukraine must both make concessions and that peace might be elusive in the short term. “We made progress in the sense that we identified potential areas of agreement, but there remain some big areas of disagreement,” Rubio said. “So we’re still a long way off. We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement. We are not at the edge of one. But I do think progress was made.”

We think the chance of U.S. implementing secondary tariffs on Russia oil buyers is now very low since this would signal the failure of Trump’s efforts to reach a deal and will discourage Russians to get to the table to discuss a deal. Current situation signals a prolonged negotiation process taking months for sealing a full-scale peace deal since ensuring and finalizing concessions will take time.