Canada
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September 04, 2024
Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada
September 4, 2024 5:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased rates by 25bps for a third straight meeting as expected, taking the rate to 4.25%. The tone of the statement and press conference was dovish, expressing concern that growth may fall short of their expectations while seeing some progress in still resilient shelter inflation.
August 30, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for September 4: A Third Straight 25bps Easing
August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i
August 07, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes expect further easing, if with no fixed timetable
August 7, 2024 6:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 24 meeting that delivered a second straight 25bps easing. While risks on both sides are discussed, the tone is on balance dovish, with the BoC increasingly confident that ingredients for price stability were in place. There was a clear consensus
July 31, 2024
Canada May GDP - Q2 looking stronger than BoC forecasted
July 31, 2024 1:04 PM UTC
May Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded a 0.1% preliminary estimate and extends a 0.3% rise in April. June’s preliminary estimate is for a 0.1% rise, which would leave Q2 up 2.2% annualized, above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s Monetary Policy Report.
July 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
July 24, 2024 4:17 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 25bps easing to 4.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem stated there was a clear consensus behind the decision. The BoC’s tone was generally dovish despite looking for stronger GDP growth going forward. We now expect 25bps easings at each of the remaining
July 19, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for July 24: A Pause Between Easings
July 19, 2024 4:30 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 24 and the decision will be close call between a second straight 25bps easing to follow the move seen on June 5 or leaving rates unchanged at 4.75%. We lean towards the latter option due to caution over inflation, though forecasts in the accompanying Monetary Policy
July 16, 2024
Canada June CPI - Subdued but probably not quite enough for a July easing
July 16, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
June’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% has reversed an upside surprise seen in May and details suggest a generally subdued underlying picture. The data might not be quite soft enough for the Bank of Canada to deliver a second straight easing when it meets on July 24, though the decision will
July 15, 2024
Canada - BoC Q2 Business Outlook Survey shows little change in views on economy or inflation
July 15, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q2 Business Outlook Survey is not much changed either in its economic view or expectations of inflation. That suggests the BoC might be cautious about delivering a second straight easing on July 24, though tomorrow’s June CPI will be watched closely.
June 28, 2024
Canada April GDP - Q2 heading for a respectable gain
June 28, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
April Canadian GDP with a 0.3% ruse was in line with expectations and the preliminary estimate made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is a 0.1% increase. If May rises by 0.1% and June is flat Q2 would rise by 1.8% annualized, slightly above a 1.5% forecast that the BoC made in Ap
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Canada May CPI - A strong month after five straight subdued ones
June 25, 2024 12:51 PM UTC
May’s Canadian CPI at 2.9% yr/yr from 2.7% has surprised on the upside and while the BoC will have June CPI data too to look at before its next meeting on July 24 this data makes a second straight easing at that meeting less likely.
June 05, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases by 25bps on Improved Inflation Picture
June 5, 2024 4:49 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada delivered a 25bps easing to 4.75% as expected and the tone of the statement and particularly the press conference was somewhat dovish, giving some detail on why it is pleased with progress on inflation. However easing at each of the remaining four meetings this year looks unlikely
May 31, 2024
Bank of Canada to Deliver a Cautious 25bps Easing on June 5
May 31, 2024 4:34 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 5 and we believe they will see recent inflationary data as having delivered sufficient progress to justify a 25bps easing, to 4.75%. The statement will however be careful to state that inflation remains too high and give no strong signals for future moves, which will
May 21, 2024
Canada April CPI - Continued progress in the BoC core rates
May 21, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
April’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% is in line with market expectations and shows subdued data on the month and continued progress in reducing the Bank of Canada’s core rates. The headline yr/yr pace is the lowest since March 2021. The data should sustain hopes for a June BoC easing.
May 09, 2024
April 30, 2024
Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected
April 30, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.
April 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
April 16, 2024
Canada March CPI a little firmer after two soft months, but BoC core rates continue to fall
April 16, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
March’s Canadian CPI has seen an as expected increase to 2.9% yr/yr from February’s unexpectedly softer 2.8%. On the month the seasonally adjusted data is a little firmer after two soft months but the Bank of Canada’s core rates continue to fall.
April 10, 2024
Bank of Canada Sees Progress in Reducing Inflation, June Easing Possible
April 10, 2024 3:37 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada made no policy changes with rates left at 5.0% and Quantitative Tightening continuing as expected. However the tone of the statement is significantly more optimistic on inflation, focusing more on this than recent signs of stronger activity. The BoC still needs to see progress on
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on April 10, Noting Stronger GDP and Slower CPI
April 2, 2024 5:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 10 and no change in rates from the current 5.0% is likely. The BoC is likely to revise near term forecasts for GDP higher and CPI lower, and leave its options open for easing at future meetings, dependent on incoming data, without giving any clear signals on timing.
April 01, 2024
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows some easing in inflation expectations
April 1, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey shows some easing of inflation expectations while being mostly subdued on the economic picture. The BoC looks unlikely to ease on April 10 with Q1 GDP looking set to exceed expectations, but this survey helps to maintain hope that by June enough prog
March 28, 2024
Canada January GDP - Q1 looking much stronger than BoC had expected
March 28, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
Not only did January Canadian GDP with a 0.6% rise exceed the preliminary 0.4% estimate, in data assisted by the end of a strike, the advance estimate for February is strong too with a rise of 0.4%. If that proves correct even an unchanged March would leave Q1 up by 3.5% annualized, well above the B
March 27, 2024
March 26, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 21, 2024
March 19, 2024
Canada February CPI slows, BoC's Gravelle to speak on QT on Thursday
March 19, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
February’s Canadian CPI has seen an unexpected fall to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.9% in January and 3.4% in December, putting the series at its lowest since March 2021. While the Bank of Canada cannot claim victory yet, the data will provide encouragement that inflationary pressures are now fading. A spe
March 06, 2024
Bank of Canada Keeps Markets Waiting
March 6, 2024 6:49 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left both rates (at 5.0%) and its forward guidance unchanged in its latest statement. A rate cut at the next meeting in April now looks unlikely, and while we continue to project a move in June it is now a close call between June and July for when the BoC starts to cut rates.
February 29, 2024
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on March 6, With a Cautious Statement
February 29, 2024 6:41 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on March 6 and while any fine tuning to the statement is more likely to be dovish than hawkish, we doubt that views have changed much at the BoC since its last meeting on January 24. We expect rates to be left unchanged at 5.0% with few hints that easing is close to be given
February 07, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Detail Inflationary Concerns
February 7, 2024 7:39 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s minutes from January 24 show significant concern about the persistence of inflation, despite seeing the economy as having moved into excess supply due to slowing demand. This leaves the BoC unsure about when to cut rates, though further increases now look unlikely.
February 06, 2024
January 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Drops Tightening Bias
January 24, 2024 5:15 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates at 5.0% as expected though the statement took a clearly more dovish tone, dropping a tightening bias though still expressing concern over persistently high inflation. Easing does not appear imminent but we now expect it to start in Q2 rather than Q3.
January 16, 2024
Bank of Canada Unlikely to Hint at Easing on January 24
January 16, 2024 7:25 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on January 24 and rates look highly likely to remain unchanged at 5.0%. The statement is likely to see a similar tone to that on December 6 which no longer saw the economy as in excess demand but remained willing to raise the policy rate further if needed.
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 05, 2024
Canada December Employment stagnates but wage growth accelerates sharply
January 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
While Canada’s employment data may look subdued, there was a sharp acceleration in wage growth, the yr/yr gain in hourly wages for permanent employees up to 5.7% yr/yr from 5.0%. This maintains a recent picture of Canadian inflationary pressures being more stubborn than those in the U.S.
This is de
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
