Canada
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November 21, 2024
Trump International: DM Countries
November 21, 2024 7:06 AM UTC
Much uncertainty still exists on policy but in 2025 the EU will likely be under pressure from targeted new tariffs by the Trump administration, while also being asked to spend more on defense spending. Purchasing extra LNG and military hardware from the U.S. is one way towards a potential trade de
November 05, 2024
Preview: Due November 29 - Canada Q3/September GDP - A subdued quarter with a stronger finish
November 5, 2024 7:44 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.3% annualized, a little below a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report and also slightly below the near 2% pace seen in the first half of the year. We do however expect the quarter to end with a stronger 0.3% rise in Septe
Bank of Canada Minutes Show Strong Consensus For Larger 50bps Move
November 5, 2024 6:58 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its meeting on October 23, which accelerated the pace of easing to 50bps, to 3.75%, after three straight meetings in which the rate was eased by 25bps. While members considered another 25bps move, there was a strong consensus for taking a larger step.
US September trade balance corrects August improvement, Canada's balance little changed in Q3
November 5, 2024 2:06 PM UTC
September’s US trade deficit of $84.4bn is the widest since April 2022, rebounding from a 5-month low deficit of $70.8bn in August to keep a deteriorating trend intact. The average of August and September is slightly lower than July’s $78.9bn but the deficit increased in Q3.
October 31, 2024
Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger
October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.
October 23, 2024
Updated Bank of Canada View: One More 50bps Easing in December, Three 25bps Moves in 2025
October 23, 2024 4:05 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has accelerated the pace of easing, cutting by 50bps to 3.75% after three straight meetings when policy was eased by 25bps. The accelerated pace of easing was largely as expected and follows headline inflation data moving back to target. The BoC wants to lift the pace of GDP g
October 15, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for October 23: Close call for 25bps rather than 50bps
October 15, 2024 6:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s October 23 decision looks a close call between a fourth straight 25bps easing to 4.0%, which is our expectation, or a 50bps move to 3.75%. The BoC can feel increasingly confident of core inflation returning to the 2.0% target in 2025, though tentative signs of growth regaini
Canada September CPI - Subdued, pause in BoC core rates downtrend likely to be temporary
October 15, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
September Canadian CPI is weaker than expected overall at 1.6% from 2.0% yr/yr, and subdued on the month, though there has been a lack of further progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates, largely because year ago data dropping out was also subdued and below where trend then was. This leaves nex
October 11, 2024
Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey suggests economy less weak, inflation not as strong
October 11, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey shows activity looking less weak and inflation expectations less strong, which will be seen as good news. The report, particularly after today’s strong September employment report, suggests a 25bps easing is more likely than a 50bps move when the B
September 27, 2024
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 24, 2024
September 17, 2024
Canada August CPI - Strengthens the case for accelerating the pace of BoC easing
September 17, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
August Canadian CPI looks clearly subdued, with the headline of 2.0% from 2.5% back on the Bank of Canada target and the BoC’s core rates all slowing and now averaging only a little above the target.
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
September 04, 2024
Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada
September 4, 2024 5:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased rates by 25bps for a third straight meeting as expected, taking the rate to 4.25%. The tone of the statement and press conference was dovish, expressing concern that growth may fall short of their expectations while seeing some progress in still resilient shelter inflation.
August 30, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for September 4: A Third Straight 25bps Easing
August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i
August 07, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes expect further easing, if with no fixed timetable
August 7, 2024 6:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 24 meeting that delivered a second straight 25bps easing. While risks on both sides are discussed, the tone is on balance dovish, with the BoC increasingly confident that ingredients for price stability were in place. There was a clear consensus
July 31, 2024
Canada May GDP - Q2 looking stronger than BoC forecasted
July 31, 2024 1:04 PM UTC
May Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded a 0.1% preliminary estimate and extends a 0.3% rise in April. June’s preliminary estimate is for a 0.1% rise, which would leave Q2 up 2.2% annualized, above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s Monetary Policy Report.
July 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
July 24, 2024 4:17 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 25bps easing to 4.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem stated there was a clear consensus behind the decision. The BoC’s tone was generally dovish despite looking for stronger GDP growth going forward. We now expect 25bps easings at each of the remaining
July 19, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for July 24: A Pause Between Easings
July 19, 2024 4:30 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 24 and the decision will be close call between a second straight 25bps easing to follow the move seen on June 5 or leaving rates unchanged at 4.75%. We lean towards the latter option due to caution over inflation, though forecasts in the accompanying Monetary Policy
July 16, 2024
Canada June CPI - Subdued but probably not quite enough for a July easing
July 16, 2024 1:17 PM UTC
June’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% has reversed an upside surprise seen in May and details suggest a generally subdued underlying picture. The data might not be quite soft enough for the Bank of Canada to deliver a second straight easing when it meets on July 24, though the decision will
July 15, 2024
Canada - BoC Q2 Business Outlook Survey shows little change in views on economy or inflation
July 15, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q2 Business Outlook Survey is not much changed either in its economic view or expectations of inflation. That suggests the BoC might be cautious about delivering a second straight easing on July 24, though tomorrow’s June CPI will be watched closely.
June 28, 2024
Canada April GDP - Q2 heading for a respectable gain
June 28, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
April Canadian GDP with a 0.3% ruse was in line with expectations and the preliminary estimate made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is a 0.1% increase. If May rises by 0.1% and June is flat Q2 would rise by 1.8% annualized, slightly above a 1.5% forecast that the BoC made in Ap
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Canada May CPI - A strong month after five straight subdued ones
June 25, 2024 12:51 PM UTC
May’s Canadian CPI at 2.9% yr/yr from 2.7% has surprised on the upside and while the BoC will have June CPI data too to look at before its next meeting on July 24 this data makes a second straight easing at that meeting less likely.
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 05, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases by 25bps on Improved Inflation Picture
June 5, 2024 4:49 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada delivered a 25bps easing to 4.75% as expected and the tone of the statement and particularly the press conference was somewhat dovish, giving some detail on why it is pleased with progress on inflation. However easing at each of the remaining four meetings this year looks unlikely
May 31, 2024
Bank of Canada to Deliver a Cautious 25bps Easing on June 5
May 31, 2024 4:34 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on June 5 and we believe they will see recent inflationary data as having delivered sufficient progress to justify a 25bps easing, to 4.75%. The statement will however be careful to state that inflation remains too high and give no strong signals for future moves, which will
May 21, 2024
Canada April CPI - Continued progress in the BoC core rates
May 21, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
April’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% is in line with market expectations and shows subdued data on the month and continued progress in reducing the Bank of Canada’s core rates. The headline yr/yr pace is the lowest since March 2021. The data should sustain hopes for a June BoC easing.
May 09, 2024
April 30, 2024
Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected
April 30, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.
April 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
April 16, 2024
Canada March CPI a little firmer after two soft months, but BoC core rates continue to fall
April 16, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
March’s Canadian CPI has seen an as expected increase to 2.9% yr/yr from February’s unexpectedly softer 2.8%. On the month the seasonally adjusted data is a little firmer after two soft months but the Bank of Canada’s core rates continue to fall.
April 10, 2024
Bank of Canada Sees Progress in Reducing Inflation, June Easing Possible
April 10, 2024 3:37 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada made no policy changes with rates left at 5.0% and Quantitative Tightening continuing as expected. However the tone of the statement is significantly more optimistic on inflation, focusing more on this than recent signs of stronger activity. The BoC still needs to see progress on
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on April 10, Noting Stronger GDP and Slower CPI
April 2, 2024 5:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 10 and no change in rates from the current 5.0% is likely. The BoC is likely to revise near term forecasts for GDP higher and CPI lower, and leave its options open for easing at future meetings, dependent on incoming data, without giving any clear signals on timing.
April 01, 2024
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows some easing in inflation expectations
April 1, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey shows some easing of inflation expectations while being mostly subdued on the economic picture. The BoC looks unlikely to ease on April 10 with Q1 GDP looking set to exceed expectations, but this survey helps to maintain hope that by June enough prog
March 28, 2024
Canada January GDP - Q1 looking much stronger than BoC had expected
March 28, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
Not only did January Canadian GDP with a 0.6% rise exceed the preliminary 0.4% estimate, in data assisted by the end of a strike, the advance estimate for February is strong too with a rise of 0.4%. If that proves correct even an unchanged March would leave Q1 up by 3.5% annualized, well above the B
