The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track

September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices

September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

·       EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead

September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

September 7, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Our new baseline (60%) is for a new ceasefire deal into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 that allows more shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We feel that economic pressure on Iran remains intense and that Iran will want to lift the U.S. blockade on its energy shipments and export revenue.  The Trump

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:31 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

UK External Account: The Ugly and the Good

August 31, 2026 11:02 AM UTC

·       The UK has seen a ugly persistent worsening of the EU goods trade deficit since leaving the EU in 2020, but two current account trends are good. The UK is helped by a surging services surplus and also a pick-up in investment income from UK portfolios invested overseas. Nevertheless, G

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2026

August 28, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2026.

UK inflation momentum, persistence and 2nd round: BoE in ‘wait and see’

August 25, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

* Constructing alternative measures of inflation from the perspective of momentum, persistence, and second round expectations is useful when considering the BoE’s reaction function
* The message is partly reassuring but not fully and gives a nuanced picture
* Recent signals give time to wait and see

DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins

August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years.  This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market

August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC

·       July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability).  Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 17-21

August 14, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

In additional to the usual Iran-watching, dual focus for the week ahead come from FOMC Minutes and the Aug 19 deadline for US-Canada trade talks

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 10-14

August 7, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

Key focus this week is US CPI. We look for 0.1% headline, 0.2% core
UK GDP consensus 0.1% in Jun but downside risks from heatwave?
Mkt eyes BoJ meeting comments for clues

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

.   ·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish bias

DM Data Week Ahead: July 27-30

July 24, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

Key events are Fed and BOE meeting, though BOJ will also attract attention,  Key data is Q2 U.S. GDP. 

BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 20-24

July 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

The highlight of the week comes from the ECB meeting and press conference, although we do not expect it to provide much guidance regarding September, sticking to the non-pre-commit language, to keep options open depending on data and geopolitical developments. 
The UK has its busy week, but data is

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 13-17

July 10, 2026 3:06 PM UTC

The most significant release of the week is likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financ

UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative

June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones.  This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer.   Such shots of real growth ar

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2026

June 30, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2026.

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3

June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

DM and EM FX Outlook: Cross-Currents for H2 and 2027

June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ

DM ex U.S. EZ Outlook (Japan and Western Europe): Navigating the Post Iran War Period?

June 23, 2026 7:43 AM UTC

·       We have revised 2026 Japan GDP only slightly lower to 0.8% as wage growth is solidly above 3%, which will support consumption for the rest of 2026/27. The extension of energy stimulus will cap headline inflation for Q2/Q3 2026.  For the BOJ, despite hawkish forward guidance, the 1% r

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

BOE: Gang of 6 and Steady 2026 Rates

June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC

 Though Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in calling for a one off 25bps risk management hike, 6 MPC members feel that disinflation is showing through and a soft economy and labor market warrants waiting to see energy prices and potential 2nd round effects. This gang of 6 also feels that markets have ti

UK CPI Review: Inflation Peaking?

June 17, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

What have been energy induced price rises are starting to ease and may do so further In June before the OFGEM induced price rise hits July numbers.  But a less worrying picture emerges in the latest (ie May) CPI and even PPI data.  Indeed, once again, actual CPI have offered a more benign picture

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?

June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started.  Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since