Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed

May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold

Canada April Employment - Weak data suggests little case for tightening

May 8, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment report with a 6-month high of 6.9% for unemployment following two straight months at 6.7%, and a fall of 17.7k in employment, is clearly a weak one and suggests there is little case for the Bank of Canada to consider tightening as long as core inflation shows no clear fee

Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy appropriate if economy evolves in line with baseline

April 29, 2026 1:59 PM UTC

The BoC assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs remain at current levels. Policy is seen as appropriate under the baseline.

Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock

April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ

Canada March Employment - Subdued as expected but with a surprise bounce in wages

April 10, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

Canada’s March employment gain of 14.1k is in line with market expectations and not very impressive after a plunge of 83.9k in February that may have been exaggerated by weather. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.7% as expected. There was an upside surprise in wage growth, the hourly rate for perman

Bank of Canada Minutes from March 18 - Too early to judge impact of war, tone far from hawkish

April 1, 2026 6:05 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 18 meeting, which left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected though we felt that the tone of the statement was somewhat dovish. The minutes show that the BoC felt that it was too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, thou

Bank of Canada - Uncertainty Heightened Further but a Dovish Leaning

March 18, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.25% as expected, but with uncertainty heightened still further removed from its statement a reference to the current policy being appropriate provided the economy evolves as expected. Uncertainty on policy has increased too. However, the BoC has taken a more dovish

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Downside growth risks, upside inflation risks

March 18, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged with the Iran war increasing uncertainty still further, but sound more dovish on the economic outlook. 

Canada February CPI - Getting closer to target, but upside risks in March from energy

March 16, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

February Canadian CPI at 1.8% yr/yr from 2.3% has come in softer than expected with the assistance of the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, though BoC core rates point to underlying slowing. March data looks set to get a lift from energy prices, but the underlying picture is getting closer t

Canada February Employment - A very weak month, though partly corrective from strength in late 2025

March 13, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

Canada’s February employment report is very weak, falling by 83.9k to extend a 24.8k fall in January. The data may in part be corrective from over-inflated stronger in September, October and November of 2025 but there is little in the February breakdown that mitigates the weakness of the headline.

Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message

March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

Bank of Canada Minutes from January 28 - Steady policy dependent on economy evolving as expected

February 11, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 28 meeting which provide no major surprises. The meeting saw rates left unchanged at 2.25% but noted heightened uncertainty, which the minutes also emphasize, with steady policy conditional on the economy evolving as expected.

Canada January Employment - Ontario explains employment and labor force slippage

February 6, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

Canada has delivered a mixed employment report for January, with a 24.8k decline in employment led by manufacturing and the province of Ontario, but a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.8%. Weather may have played a part in the weakness in Ontario, though details are mixed leaving the d

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Growth will be modest

February 5, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

BoC's Macklem sees limited scope for monetary policy to lift growth while remaining open to policy changes. 

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate But Uncertainty Heightened

January 28, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and continues to see the current policy rate as appropriate, Governor Macklem stating updated economic forecasts have not changed significantly since October. However in highlighting heightened uncertainty the statement appears to leave ri

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Forecasts little changed but heightened uncertainty

January 28, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected but heightened uncertainty, particularly on trade, limits the scope for forward guidance.

Bank of Canada Preview for January 28: Rate level still appropriate but uncertainty high

January 20, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% on January 28 and reiterate that rates are at about the right level if the economy evolves as expected, while adding that uncertainty remains elevated. We expect that the next BoC move will be a modest tightening, but this will

January 9, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

After three surprisingly strong months, which followed two surprisingly weak months, Canada’s December employment report has delivered a normal outcome, with employment modestly positive at 8.2k, and unemployment bouncing to 6.8% from 6.5%, through in remaining below October’s 6.9% and the highs

Canada November CPI - Underlying trend has slowed

December 15, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

November Canadian CPI at 2.2% has held steady at October’s pace, and is slightly weaker than expected. The Bank of Canada’s core are are on balance weaker, with CPI-Median and CPI-Trim falling to 2.8% from 3.0%, though CPI-Common (less important to the BoC) edged up to 2.8% from 2.7%.

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate Despite Stronger Data

December 10, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Since the Bank of Canada eased rates to 2.25% in October and stated that policy was now at an appropriate level, Canada has delivered stronger than expected data on GDP and employment. The data has not been dismissed, but the BoC view that policy is at an appropriate level persists after today’s m

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Stronger data noted but policy still seen at right level

December 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

In leaving rates unchanged the BoC did not dismiss recent stronger data but still sees policy at the appropriate level. 

Bank of Canada Preview for December 10: Stronger data reinforces case for a pause

December 5, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates at 2.25% when it meets on December 10. After easing in both September and October, the BoC after its October move stated rates were now at about the right level if the economy evolved in line with its expectations. With Q3 GDP and November employ

December 5, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

Canada’s November employment report has surprised on the upside for a third straight month, rising by 53.6k, and this time with a sharp fall in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.9%. While the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be thinking about tightening yet, the data adds to hopes generated by a 2.6% annua

Canada Q3 GDP rebounds as imports plunge but domestic demand marginally negative

November 28, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

Canada’s 2.6% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is sharply higher than expected though the surprise comes largely from a sharp fall in imports. Domestic demand was almost unchanged with a 0.1% annualized decline. September GDP grew by 0.2% on the month, but the preliminary estimate for October is weak

USMCA Renegotiation: Hostage To Trump

November 27, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

•    Trump could decide to go on an early offensive over the July 2026 USMCA review or could wait until after the November congressional elections to act tough given it could cause new cost of living fears for U.S. voters.  This could mean that at times the USMCA negotiations are upsetting fo

Canada October CPI - BoC core rates mostly slower, but still running above target

November 17, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

October Canadian CPI has slowed to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though excluding gasoline the yr/yr increase was 2.6% in each month. The BoC’s core rates were however mostly slower, CPI-Median at 2.9% from 3.1%, CPI-Trim at 3.0% from 3.1%, though CPI-Common was unchanged at 2.7%. Year ago st

Bank of Canada Minutes from October 29 reinforce steady policy message after a 25bps easing

November 12, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its October 29 meeting, and after a 25bps easing members agreed that monetary policy was now close to the limits of what it could do to support the economy under current circumstances. They agreed to be as clear as possible to communicate that policy was

Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy

November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme

Canada Budget Sees Larger Deficits, Slower Growth

November 4, 2025 9:58 PM UTC

Canada’s budget has seen the deficit for 2025-26 revised up to C$78.3bn from C$42.2bn in the December 2024 statement, which will now be 2.5% of GDP versus 1.3%, still a level that is quite small compared to many other developed countries. The deficit is projected to slip after that, reaching C$56.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Can't stabilise inflation and output at the same time

November 3, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem's comments are consistent with last week's message that policy is now at an appropriate level.

Bank of Canada - Hawkish Ease with Current Rate Level Seen as Appropriate

October 29, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish easing, cutting rates for the second straight meeting by 25bps, to 2.25%, but stating that if inflation and activity evolve in line with its projection, the current rate is seen as about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy th

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy rate at about the right level

October 29, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered an expected 25bps easing for a second straight meeting but suggests data will need to underperform its expectations if it is to move again.

U.S-China Trade Tensions Ease, US-Canada Tensions Escalate

October 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the US will impose a threatened extra 100% tariff on China on November 1. However trade tensions with Canada have increased, with Canada receiving an extra 10% tariff, adding to downside economic

Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December

October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September

Canada September CPI - Not alarmingly strong but argues against BoC easing next week

October 21, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI at 2.4% from 1.9% yr/yr is stronger than expected with the Bank of Canada’s Bank of Canada’s core rates also mostly marginally firmer. The monthly details do not look alarmingly strong but, particularly after a strong employment report, the data argues against a BoC easing

Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey - Unlikely to shift BoC's views

October 20, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q3 business outlook survey is mixed though overall probably does not change the Bank of Canada’s view very much. The overall business outlook indicator of -2.28 is marginally improved from Q2’s -2.40 but leaves the index is a fairly narrow and marginally negative range. Th

Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October

October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi

Bank of Canada - Clear consensus to ease, we expect two further 25bps moves

September 17, 2025 3:46 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s decision to ease today for the first time since March, by 25bps to 2.50% was as the market expected.  We expect two further easings from the BoC, in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2025, which would take the rate to 2.0%, which is likely to prove the floor.  

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Was clear consensus to ease rates

September 17, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem states there was a clear consensus to ease today, contrasting a clear consensus to hold at July's meeting.

Canada August CPI - Subdued enough for a BoC easing

September 16, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

August Canadian CPI at 1.9% yr/yr reversed a July dip to 1.7% yr/yr and remains restrained by around 0.7% by the abolition of the carbon tax. Core rates remain above target but are on balance marginally softer while monthly details also look acceptably subdued. The data is not an obstacle to an expe

Bank of Canada Preview for September 17: Weak data justifies resumption of easing

September 9, 2025 6:26 PM UTC

After the Bank of Canada’s last meeting on July 30 we expected rates to be left on hold in September before easing resumed in October. However with data since that meeting having been mostly weak, a 25bps easing, the first move since March, now looks likely at the September 17 meeting, to 2.5%. We

Canada August Employment - With Q3 looking weak, we now expect the BoC to ease in September

September 5, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 65.5k decline with unemployment up to 7.1% from 6.9% is much weaker than expected. While the detail is a little less weak than the headlines suggest, and the data has been volatile recently, we are revising our Bank of Canada call, and now expect a 25bps ea

Bank of Canada Minutes from July 30 - Differences of opinion on whether further easing would be needed

August 13, 2025 7:32 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 30 meeting, which saw rates left unchanged at 2.75% with Governor Macklem stating after the meeting that there was a clear consensus to do so. However the minutes show that some felt the rate had been reduced sufficiently, while others felt that