Bank of Canada Minutes from October 29 reinforce steady policy message after a 25bps easing

November 12, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its October 29 meeting, and after a 25bps easing members agreed that monetary policy was now close to the limits of what it could do to support the economy under current circumstances. They agreed to be as clear as possible to communicate that policy was

Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy

November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme

Canada Budget Sees Larger Deficits, Slower Growth

November 4, 2025 9:58 PM UTC

Canada’s budget has seen the deficit for 2025-26 revised up to C$78.3bn from C$42.2bn in the December 2024 statement, which will now be 2.5% of GDP versus 1.3%, still a level that is quite small compared to many other developed countries. The deficit is projected to slip after that, reaching C$56.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Can't stabilise inflation and output at the same time

November 3, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem's comments are consistent with last week's message that policy is now at an appropriate level.

Bank of Canada - Hawkish Ease with Current Rate Level Seen as Appropriate

October 29, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish easing, cutting rates for the second straight meeting by 25bps, to 2.25%, but stating that if inflation and activity evolve in line with its projection, the current rate is seen as about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy th

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy rate at about the right level

October 29, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered an expected 25bps easing for a second straight meeting but suggests data will need to underperform its expectations if it is to move again.

U.S-China Trade Tensions Ease, US-Canada Tensions Escalate

October 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the US will impose a threatened extra 100% tariff on China on November 1. However trade tensions with Canada have increased, with Canada receiving an extra 10% tariff, adding to downside economic

Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December

October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September

Canada September CPI - Not alarmingly strong but argues against BoC easing next week

October 21, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI at 2.4% from 1.9% yr/yr is stronger than expected with the Bank of Canada’s Bank of Canada’s core rates also mostly marginally firmer. The monthly details do not look alarmingly strong but, particularly after a strong employment report, the data argues against a BoC easing

Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey - Unlikely to shift BoC's views

October 20, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q3 business outlook survey is mixed though overall probably does not change the Bank of Canada’s view very much. The overall business outlook indicator of -2.28 is marginally improved from Q2’s -2.40 but leaves the index is a fairly narrow and marginally negative range. Th

Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October

October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi

Bank of Canada - Clear consensus to ease, we expect two further 25bps moves

September 17, 2025 3:46 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s decision to ease today for the first time since March, by 25bps to 2.50% was as the market expected.  We expect two further easings from the BoC, in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2025, which would take the rate to 2.0%, which is likely to prove the floor.  

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Was clear consensus to ease rates

September 17, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem states there was a clear consensus to ease today, contrasting a clear consensus to hold at July's meeting.

Canada August CPI - Subdued enough for a BoC easing

September 16, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

August Canadian CPI at 1.9% yr/yr reversed a July dip to 1.7% yr/yr and remains restrained by around 0.7% by the abolition of the carbon tax. Core rates remain above target but are on balance marginally softer while monthly details also look acceptably subdued. The data is not an obstacle to an expe

Bank of Canada Preview for September 17: Weak data justifies resumption of easing

September 9, 2025 6:26 PM UTC

After the Bank of Canada’s last meeting on July 30 we expected rates to be left on hold in September before easing resumed in October. However with data since that meeting having been mostly weak, a 25bps easing, the first move since March, now looks likely at the September 17 meeting, to 2.5%. We

Canada August Employment - With Q3 looking weak, we now expect the BoC to ease in September

September 5, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 65.5k decline with unemployment up to 7.1% from 6.9% is much weaker than expected. While the detail is a little less weak than the headlines suggest, and the data has been volatile recently, we are revising our Bank of Canada call, and now expect a 25bps ea

Bank of Canada Minutes from July 30 - Differences of opinion on whether further easing would be needed

August 13, 2025 7:32 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 30 meeting, which saw rates left unchanged at 2.75% with Governor Macklem stating after the meeting that there was a clear consensus to do so. However the minutes show that some felt the rate had been reduced sufficiently, while others felt that

Canada July Employment - A weak month after a strong month

August 8, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

Canada’s surprisingly strong June employment report has been followed by a significant correction lower in July, with a fall of 40.8k to follow a rise of 83.1k, Full time work is negative over the two months, a 51.0k fall after a 13.5k increase, while part time work with a rise of 10.3k extended a

Bank of Canada - Consensus to hold, but cautious bias towards easing

July 30, 2025 3:34 PM UTC

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that there was a clear consensus to leave rates steady at 2.75% at the latest meeting, as was also the case in June.  There does however appear to be scope for further easing ahead. We still expect rates to bottom at 2.25% and end 2026 at 2.5%, but we now

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Clear consensus to hold rates steady

July 30, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

BoC's Macklem states the BoC held rates steady based on tariff uncertainty, some economic resilience and evidence underlying inflationary pressures. 

Bank of Canada Preview for July 30: Hold after firm data with uncertainty high

July 15, 2025 3:30 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on July 30 and what had been seen as a close call between a 25bps easing and unchanged now looks likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.75%. Continued above target core CPI data and a strong employment report for June argue against easing, though uncertainty remains high with

Canada June CPI - Argues against a July BoC easing

July 15, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

June CPI was as expected with yr/yr growth at 1.9% after two straight months at 1.7%, though without April’s abolition of the Consumer Carbon Tax would be standing around 2.5%. The Bank of Canada’s core rates showed no progress lower, and coupled with Friday’s strong employment report for June

Canada June Employment - Strong gain broad based but hard to sustain if tariff escalation persists

July 11, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

Canada’s June employment report with a rise of 83.1k is sharply ahead of expectations, even when noting that most of the gains came in a 69.5k rise in part time employment. The data may have been supported by a temporary easing of trade tensions that have subsequently escalated with yesterday’s

Canada May CPI - Mixed data leaves July BoC decision a close call

June 24, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

May Canadian CPI has come in as expected, unchanged at 1.7% with this yr/yr rate still restrained by the abolition of the consumer carbon tax which took 0.7% off the rate in April. The BoC’s core rates are on balance slightly softer, but do not fully reverse acceleration seen in May, leaving the J

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Leaves options open on rates

June 18, 2025 3:34 PM UTC

Comments from BoC's Macklem, reiterating yesterday's minutes, see situations in which the BoC would ease again but also those in which it could stay on hold.

Canada May Employment - Strong gains in full time and private sector work

June 6, 2025 1:32 PM UTC

Canada’s May employment report saw unemployment at 7.0% from 6.9% rising to the highest since September 2021. However a rise of 8.8k in employment is stronger than expected with the detail showing strong gains in full time and private sector employment. Yesterday Bank of Canada’s Kozicki said th

Bank of Canada - Consensus to hold in June, but we now expect easings in July and October

June 4, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave rates unchanged at 2.75% was a clear consensus. There was more diversity of views on the path forward, though members thought there could be a need for easing, depending on data. We now expect two further easings in 2025, in

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Consensus to hold at this meeting but scope for future easing seen

June 4, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

The opening statement from BoC's Macklem suggests the decision to hold at this meeting was not the close call seen by many, but scope for future easing is seen, depending on how data evolves.

Bank of Canada Preview for June 4: A close call for another policy pause

May 30, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 4 and it is a close call between leaving rates unchanged at 2.75% and a 25bps easing to 2.5%, though we now lean to the former. The statement is unlikely to give any forward guidance and we still expect further easing this year as the economy weakens in response to U

Canada April CPI - Core rates highest for over a year

May 20, 2025 12:56 PM UTC

April Canadian CPI in falling to 1.7% yr/yr from 2.3% is slightly stronger than expected with the fall fully due to the ending of a carbon tax. The BoC’s core rates are stronger than expected, CPI-Median at 3.2% from 2.9%, CPI-Trim at 3.1% from 2.8% and CPI-Common at 2.5% from 2.3%.

Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak

May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Getting closer to lower-tariff scenario from April MPR

May 8, 2025 6:11 PM UTC

The BoC is getting less pessimistic about the tariff scenario, though we are not yet in the better of two scenarios outlined in April's MPR, just closer. Earlier today the BoC's Financial Stability Report saw resilience in the financial system with reduced consumer debt relative for income, while no

Canada Election: Liberal Victory Likely, Stable Policy Expected

April 25, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

Canada’s election takes place on Monday. A victory for the ruling Liberals looks likely, but polls are close enough to mean that a hung parliament or even a majority for the opposition Conservatives, while unlikely, is not to be ruled out. Should the Conservatives spring a surprise, a more concili

Bank of Canada - Proceeding carefully, but risks still lean towards further easing

April 16, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75% as expected. The statement concluded that the BoC will proceed carefully, noting that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war, but it can and must maintain price stability in Canada. While this shows cauti

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Less forward looking but prepared to act decisively

April 16, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected. They will proceed carefully but are prepared to act decisively, meaning their options are kept open.

Canada March CPI - Correction lower led by travel costs

April 15, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

March Canadian CPI in falling to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.6% is significantly weaker than expected. Lower prices for gasoline and travel tours were cited as negative influences, the latter surely impacted by the unwillingness of Canadians to travel to the USA.  The BoC core rates are on balance slightly s

Bank of Canada Preview for April 16: Easing to pause, but unlikely to be done

April 8, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 16 and we expect that strength in some recent data and high uncertainty will see rates left unchanged at 2.75%. There will be little forward guidance and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report may avoid providing its usual economic forecasts. We do not expect that

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows caution, Consumer Survey more pessimistic

April 7, 2025 2:57 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey is weaker, though probably not by enough to shock the Bank of Canada. The survey was conducted in February, when tariffs were a worry but not yet a reality. 

Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness

April 4, 2025 1:22 PM UTC

Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.

Bank of Canada Minutes from March 12 - Debate over the 25bps easing, agreement to proceed carefully

March 26, 2025 6:19 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 12 meeting, and these show some debate about the meeting’s decision to ease by 25bps to 2.75% and agreement to proceed carefully with further changes to policy. A lot can happen before the BoC next meets on April 16, but these minutes suggest

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Policy to be less forward looking

March 20, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem sees the Canadian economy as facing new uncertainty just after a soft landing had been achieved.

Canada February CPI - Acceleration clearer as sales tax holiday ends

March 18, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

February Canadian CPI at 2.6% yr/yr from 1.9% in January is significantly stronger than expected, with the rise inflated by the mid-February expiry of a sales tax holiday that started in mid-December. This will lift March data further. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are also stronger, suggesting

Bank of Canada - With risks on both sides, timing matters

March 12, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada eased as expected by 25bps to 2.75%, a level it sees as neutral. Given massive uncertainty clear forward guidance is impossible but they made no attempt to hide the gravity of the problem, Governor Tiff Macklem stating Canada is facing a new crisis from which the economic impact c

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Facing new crisis, impact could be severe

March 12, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem will weigh the impact of a weaker economy and higher prices, though today's easing shows the immediate focus is on the economy.

Canada February Employment - Weather may explain this weak month, but tariff risks ahead

March 7, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

Canada’s February employment with a marginal rise of 1.1k has seen a pause after three straight strong months. With StatsCanada citing snowstorms as an issue not too much should be read into this subdued month, though trend is likely to slow in the months ahead as US tariffs are imposed. 

Bank of Canada Preview for March 12: Tariff risks justify a further 25bps easing

March 5, 2025 5:51 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 12, and while the tariff picture is still anything but clear, we expect a 25bps easing to 2.75%. The economic damage done by the ongoing tension is already likely to be significant, and may become seriously so. Inflationary risks have increased, and the Canadian eco

Trump Latest Thinking

March 5, 2025 11:07 AM UTC

Bottom line: President Donald Trump signaled that he is committed to tariffs to raise revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade relations.  This three part approach will likely shape implementation of further product and reciprocal tariffs from April.  However, reports sugges

Trump Tariffs: Bad for The U.S. Worse For Canada

March 4, 2025 3:48 PM UTC

When Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February, we put up a piece outlining the likely economic consequences, which became dated by the end of the day as Mexico and Canada won a one month delay in return for some concessions at the border. We are now recycling that story, with som

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Outlines grim scenario for Canada if tariffs are imposed

February 21, 2025 7:43 PM UTC

BoC Governor Macklem sees limited scope for the BoC to undo the economic damage from tariffs, but would seek to keep price gains as one-time.