This week's five highlights

June 27, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

The Fragile Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel
Ukraine War Continuing Probability is Now at 70%
This Week's Slate of Fed Speakers
Seems to be tilted dovish
And Could Pressure the DXY

This week's five highlights

June 20, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Hold Then Cautious Easing
Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish BoE Hold 
SNB Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option
Norges Bank Coming (Very) Late to the Party
Riksbank Cuts and Flags Possible Further Move

This week's five highlights

June 13, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Israel Strikes Iran Nuclear Facilities and Key Target
China and July 9 U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Deadline
U.S. May CPI Shows Little tariff pass-through
Soft U.S. May PPI but recent revisions have been large
UK GDP Overstating Activity

This week's five highlights

June 6, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Thoughts on Trump’s 50% Steel And Aluminum
Fed Speakers This Week
Some likely slowing for U.S. May Employment 
Consensus to hold in June for Bank of Canada 
China Banking Problems

This week's five highlights

May 30, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Court Ruling Affects Trump Reciprocal and Fentanyl Tariff
Fed Speakers This Week
RBNZ Sees a Turning Point
US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat on Eurozone
USD/JPY Stays Depressed

This week's five highlights

May 23, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Speakers This Week
UK-EU Getting Back on the (Political) Fence
RBA Cut by 25bps
How Durable a Surge in UK CPI 
The Greenback Stays Pressured

This week's five highlights

May 16, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

China and UK Precedents for Trump Tariffs
U.S./China Trade Truce Reduce Downside and Extra Stimulus Prospects
India Redraws the Rules
U.S. April CPI Shows Little tariff pass-through so far
UK Q1 GDP Jumps But Erratic and Overstating Activity

This week's five highlights

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed

This week's five highlights

May 2, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine Seems Not Close
China South China Sea Tensions
U.S. Q1 GDP dips while Imports Surge goes into Inventories and Business Investment
U.S. April Employment Will Provide few Clear Signals for Labor Market Weakness
BoJ Halved 2025 GDP Forecast 

This week's five highlights

April 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All Eyes Remain on Trump
First Sign of De-escalation between U.S. and China?
Fed Speakers latest View
Minor Rebound for the USD
USD/JPY Continue to Chop

This week's five highlights

April 11, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. Trade Complication Persists
Prospect of a U.S.-China Trade Deal
U.S. March CPI Shows Pre-tariff momentum appears lower than was realised
And a barrage of Fed Speakers 
USD/JPY Searching for Lower Grounds 

This week's five highlights

April 4, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Tariff Man In the Spotlight But Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
The Potential EZ/EU Response for U.S. Tariffs
Fed Speakers' Views
U.S. March Non-Farm Payroll Stronger than January and February
RBA Kept Rates Unchanged

This week's five highlights

March 28, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Tariff man Strikes Auto
USD/JPY Rose on its Mark
Norges Bank's Policy Easing Delayed but Far From Abandoned
UK Inflation Slips Even as Services Fail to Soften
Bank of Canada March Minutes Debate over the 25bps easing

This week's five highlights

March 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged
A Placeholder Meeting for BoJ
BoE Being Careful Amid Data Conflicts
Everything Unchanged for Riksbank 
SNB 25 bp Cut Likely To Last

This week's five highlights

March 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. Dollar Under Trump
Trump’s Policies and U.S. Equities
U.S. February CPI Renewed progress, but threatened by tariffs
Bank of Canada Another Cut
PBOC Slow Cuts with 5% Nominal GDP

This week's five highlights

March 7, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Trump Tariffs Bad for The U.S. Worse For Canada
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls to be Stronger than January, but slower than November and December
ECB Disinflation Still On Track But Policy now ‘Work in Progress’
Only Moderate Fiscal Stimulus for China
Germany Attempts to Unlock Debt Brake

This week's five highlights

February 28, 2025 4:20 PM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

This week's five highlights

February 21, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors? 
U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Should be Stronger than January
RBA began Easing
RBNZ Continue to Frontload
UK Inflation Jumps

This week's five highlights

February 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
U.S. January CPI A clear disappointment
USD/JPY Getting the Ebbs and Flows
UK GDP Surprise Resilience

This week's five highlights

February 7, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Trump The Tariff Man
China/U.S. Trade War Again
Uncertain BoE MPC Signals It Needs to be Careful
U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Likely A slower month given bad weather
EZ HICP Headline Rises Amid Still Friendly Core Messages

This week's five highlights

January 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged
U.S. Q4 GDP Led by Strong Consumer Spending
ECB Policy Still Restrictive
Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected
Riksbank Shifts to Easing Bias

This week's five highlights

January 24, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Trump's Policy and Market
China/U.S. Trade Relation
BoJ Hikes by 25bps
And Should Support JPY
Norges Bank's Head Stays in the Sand

This week's five highlights

January 17, 2025 4:48 PM UTC

U.S. December CPI A modest comfort to the Fed
U.S. December Retail Sales still solid
USD/JPY Capped by Potential BoJ Hike
UK GDP Continued Weakness Evident
China Hits 5% for 2024 but Still Imbalanced

This week's five highlights

January 10, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

2025 First round of Fed Speaker's Remark
December  FOMC Minutes Moving towards a more careful approach
U.S. December Employment Closer to solid underlying trend
Our thoughts on Trump Policies 
Japan Wage Continue to Grow at 3%

This week's five highlights

January 3, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

No fireworks for the New Year
USD Begun the Year Strong
And JPY Holding Onto Lows

This week's five highlights

December 20, 2024 12:00 PM UTC

Fed Policy Easing Slowing
BoJ Serves A Nothing Burger
A Dovish Hold for BoE
Norges Bank Caution Prevails
Nearing the End for Sweden Riksbank?

This week's five highlights

December 13, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

ECB Clearly Flagging An End to Policy Restriction
Bank of Canada delivers a second straight 50bps easing
SNB Easing Bias Toned Down
RBA Getting Closer to easing but not yet
U.S. November CPI a little higher than the Fed would like

This week's five highlights

December 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. November Employment To Rebound from October's hurricanes and strike
U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, narrowing in Trade Deficit may be temporary
U.S. November ADP Employment Mostly strong despite weak manufacturing
USD/JPY Chops Around
A Political Crisis But Not (Yet) a Fiscal One for France

This week's five highlights

November 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

November FOMC Minutes Shows Few hawkish signals 
No major surprises for U.S. Data
USD/JPY Broke 150 figure
RBNZ  Front Loading Cuts
China Slowing LT Growth

This week's five highlights

November 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Geopolitical tension flares up
Thoughts of Trump Policy
UK Inflation Back Above Target & Core Pressures Higher
ECB Stability Review Broadens the Case for Easier Policy
Choppy USD/JPY

This week's five highlights

November 15, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

 A more balanced U.S. October CPI
And the slate of Fed speakers
One way traffic for USD/JPY
UK GDP Momentum Dissipated
Mixed Chinese Data Backs More Stimulus 

This week's five highlights

November 8, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Trump 2024
FOMC eases by 25bps and statement avoids dovish hints
Gradualism Still the Order of the Day for BoE
RBA Still Waiting to ease
Norges Bank Tweaks in Policy Guidance
Sweden Riksbank Faster, But Not (Yet) Any Further Easing? 

This week's five highlights

October 25, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

The Bank of Canada accelerated the pace of easing
U.S. Initial Claims back to pre-hurricane trend
And other U.S. Data
USD/JPY Challenge Monthly High
Eurozone Services Risks Clearer

This week's five highlights

October 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

ECB Inflation Outlook Lowered
UK CPI Below Target and BoE Hawks Placated
Canada  CPI Subdued and pause in BoC core rates downtrend likely to be temporary
U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production
China September Data Rotates Higher

This week's five highlights

September 27, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

More Cuts on the Way for SNB 
Faster and a Little Further Rate Cuts for Riksbank 
RBA Waiting to ease
U.S. GDP Historical revisions mostly positive 
China Steps Up Support, But Not a Game changer

This week's five highlights

September 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC eases by 50bps but otherwise not strikingly dovish
BoJ Keep Rates Unchanged
Explicit Gradualism From BoE 
Norges Bank's Head Still in the Sand
UK Inflation Stable and Services Resilience 

This week's five highlights

September 13, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

ECB Under-Estimating Downside Risks
U.S. August Core CPI  at a four month high led by shelter and air fares
U.S. August PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade a little too high for comfort
UK GDP a More Mixed Messages Give BoE Food for Thought
More of the Same or Game changing Policies for China Equities 

This week's five highlights

September 6, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. August  Non-Farm Payrolls Less weak than July
U.S. ADP Employment Losing momentum
And U.S. ISM Data
Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada
USD/JPY Begins its Trip to the South 

This week's five highlights

August 30, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues
U.S. Q2 GDP revised even higher
German Inflation Back at Target
Moderate growth for Canada Q2/June GDP
China Consumer Volatility

This week's five highlights

August 23, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Riksbank Deliver 25bps and More to Come
Ueda Reinforce BoJ July's Hawkish Policy Take
ECB Policy Clues from July Accounts and Lane
Canada July CPI Shows monthly gains but yearly growth fall
China Housing Needed More Bailout

This week's five highlights

August 16, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia
RBNZ Begin Cutting
U.S. July Core CPI below 0.2% before rounding for a third straight month
UK Inflation Up on Energy But Services Resilience Diminishes
Soft Start to Q3 for China

This week's five highlights

August 9, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

No surprise from RBA
U.S. Initial Claims correct lower but trend continues to rise
U.S. July ISM Services Employment highest since September
U.S. and Canada report stronger trade balances in June
Bank of Canada Minutes expect further easing

This week's five highlights

August 2, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC leaves rates unchanged and put September Easing on the Table but not a Commitment
BoE Getting Less Restrictive
BoJ Too hawkish, too fast
Canada Q2 GDP looking stronger than BoC forecasted
U.S. Initial Claims higher, Q2 Unit Labor Costs consistent with falling inflation

This week's five highlights

July 26, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
China Surprise 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate Cut
US Q2 GDP exceeds expectations
The Turn in USD/JPY 
UK Household Wealth and the Pension Predicament

This week's five highlights

July 19, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Markets Guessing Trump Policy Priorities
U.S. Initial Claims rebound from a dip
ECB Policy Window Stays Very Open
UK Inflation Stays at Target and Services Stay Resilient
China Retail Sales Drags Q2 GDP

This week's five highlights

July 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. June CPI Very soft
USD/JPY Swings
More Upside Surprises on UK GDP
RBNZ Signals easing soon
Weak CPI and M2 Trends in China

This week's five highlights

July 5, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Trump now Front-Runner for President
UK Election Shows Labour’s Solid Victory
June FOMC Minutes Saw Cooling Economy but Little Discussion of Easing
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls may suggest some loss of momentum
EZ HICP Disinflation Resumes Amid Services Resilience

This week's five highlights

June 28, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Sweden Riksbank Slightly Less Gradual
U.S. Initial Claims and GDP improve, Durables and Trade deteriorate
U.S. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales 
Canada May CPI strong after five straight subdued ones
USD/JPY Reaches New High

This week's five highlights

June 21, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

BoE MPC Splits Enlarge to Suggest Cut Soon
SNB 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
RBA Recognized slower inflation moderation
Norges Bank Excessive Last Mile Caution?
U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Current Account all disappoint