Data Reviews
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May 30, 2025
U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Reduced tariffs on China appear to have eased concerns
May 30, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
May’s Final Michigan CSI has seen inflation expectations coming down significantly, no longer significantly accelerating from April, probably due to reduced tariffs on China. However the boost to sentiment is modest, the final figure of 52.2 up from a preliminary 50.8 and unchanged from April.
Canada Q1 GDP leaves BoC rate call a close one, but we now lean to no change
May 30, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
Canada’s Q1 GDP was surprisingly resilient, rising in line with recent trend by 2.1% annualized, though Q4 was revised down to 2.1% from 2.6%. Detail was less positive, with domestic demand falling by 0.1% though this follows a 5.2% surge in Q4. March GDP rose by 0.1% as expected, and the prelimin
U.S. April Trade Deficit falls sharply after tariffs imposed, Personal Income strong, Spending and Core PCE Prices subdued
May 30, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
While March personal spending is subdued as expected with a 0.2% rise, personal income shows surprising strength with a rise of 0.8%, while core PCE prices are subdued as expected, up 0.1%, underperforming a 0.2% core CPI. A much smaller than expected advance April trade deficit of $87.6bn is suppor
German Data Review: Lower Headline Services Surge Reverses
May 30, 2025 12:47 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low. Most notable amid a drop caused
Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1
May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit
May 29, 2025
U.S. April Pending Home Sales - Renewed weakness
May 29, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
Pending home sales with a 6.3% April decline have more than fully reversed a 5.5% March increase (revised lower from 6.1%) to resume a picture of underlying weakness. Recent gains in mortgage rates in response to rising UST yields may have contributed to the drop.
May 27, 2025
U.S. May Consumer Confidence bounce likely supported by equities
May 27, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
Contrasting continued weakness in the Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has seen a sharp bounce in May, to 98.0 from 85.7, led by consumer expectations, which appears related to rising equities as trade tensions reduced somewhat.
Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?
May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC
At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9. Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden
May 23, 2025
U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals
May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April
Eurozone: Waging War on Wages
May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC
After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway. Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals. ECB wage tracker and
May 22, 2025
U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Unexpected dip, subdued outlook
May 22, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
April existing home sales saw an unexpected 0.5% fall to 4.00m which contrasts a strong 6.1% rise in March pending home sales which are designed to predict existing home sales. However the outlook for the housing sector looks quite subdued overall.
U.S. May S&P PMIs - Gains follow reduction in tariffs on China
May 22, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
May’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly improved, both manufacturing and services at 52.3, up from 50.2 and 50.8 respectively in April. The gains may reflect reduced trade risks after the cut in tariffs on China.
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U.S. Initial Claims slip, trend moving up but only slowly
May 22, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims have seen a modest decline to 227k from 229k in the latest week, the survey week for May’s non-farm payroll. Trend is creeping higher but consistent with only a marginal slowing in the labor market, with no recessionary signal.
Eurozone: Services Offer Sobering News
May 22, 2025 9:00 AM UTC
The May flash composite PMI data may have fallen into apparent contraction territory as the index dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in five months and thereby signalling a reduction, albeit a marginal one. We do not take much issue whether
May 21, 2025
As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April
May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy
UK CPI Review (May 21): How Durable a Surge?
May 21, 2025 6:50 AM UTC
The UK and the rest of the DM world are now decoupling, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK is seeing a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below, targets – although some measures if underling EZ inflation have started to edg
May 20, 2025
May 16, 2025
Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab
U.S. May Preliminary Michigan CSI - Is the fall a sign that prices are now accelerating?
May 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
May’s Preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.8 is, despite the equity recovery, surprisingly weaker than April’s final of 52.2, though the 50.8 reading matches exactly the preliminary May outcome, though most responses were received before the US-China trade de-escalation. This could be a sign that afte
U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Single family slippage suggests trend starting to slip
May 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
April housing starts are in line with expectations, up 1.6% to 1361k, but permits are weaker than expected, down 4.7% to 1412k. With the starts rise fully due to the volatile multiples sector and the permits fall broad based this is a weaker than expected report.
May 15, 2025
U.S. April PPI - Weak month, strong revisions, strong core goods, weak services
May 15, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
April’s PPI, even more so than April’s CPI, was surprisingly soft, falling by 0.5% overall, 0.4% ex food and energy and by 0.1% ex food, energy and trade. However March PPI saw sharp upward revisions, overall to unchanged from -0.4%, ex food and energy to a 0.4% rise from -0.1%, and ex food, e
U.S. April Industrial Production - Manufacturing slips but May surveys suggest some resilience
May 15, 2025 1:38 PM UTC
April industrial production was unchanged but manufacturing output saw a weak month, falling by 0.4%, to reverse a March increase. Signals from manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed and Empire State for May however, released shortly before, are on balance less negative.
U.S. April Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Claims - Only limited signs of slowing
May 15, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April retail sales and weekly initial claims are in line with expectations, and consistent with a moderate slowing in the economy, but with no recessionary signals. It is however too early for the full impact of tariffs to be seen, particularly with the impact of tariffs on prices so far limited.
UK GDP Review: Q1 GDP Jumps But Erratic and Overstating Activity
May 15, 2025 7:17 AM UTC
National account data delivered yet another upside surprise both in terms of the latest monthly figure and also the associated Q1 update. Indeed, February GDP, rather than consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, instead grew by 0.2% (Figure 1), a fifth successive non-negati
May 13, 2025
U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far
May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i
May 12, 2025
U.S. Budget Surplus rises in April, Tariffs only a modest proportion of that
May 12, 2025 6:36 PM UTC
April saw a strong budget surplus of $258,4bn, up from $208.5bn in April 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1048.7bn is up from $855.2bn in the seven months to April 2024, and the 12 month average has been above $2trillion for seven straight months. The deficit on FY 2024 was $1
May 09, 2025
Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.
Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak
May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC
Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides. The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last
May 06, 2025
US March trade deficit surges as service export weakness adds to pre-tariff strength in goods imports
May 6, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
March’s record US trade deficit of $140.5bn is even higher than expected though consistent with the assumptions of the Q1 GDP report. Exports surged by 4.4% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement while exports rose by a marginal 0.2%.
May 05, 2025
U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a slowing trend
May 5, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 51.6 has corrected higher from March’s 50.8 though remains quite subdued and is weaker than each index from September through February. Prices paid accelerated, to 65.1 from 60.9, reaching their highest since January 2023.
Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through
May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre
May 02, 2025
U.S. April Employment - Suggests economy where Fed wants it, but can it persist?
May 2, 2025 12:57 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll with a 177k increase is on the firm side of expectations and shows the labor market remained solid in early April, but the upside surprise is offset by 58k in net downward revisions. Unemployment was unchanged at 4.2% as expected but a below consensus 0.2% rise in average
EZ HICP Review: Headline Fails to Fall as Services Inflation Rises on Easter Effect?
May 2, 2025 9:46 AM UTC
EZ HICP inflation failed to fall back toward the 2% target in flash April data, instead staying at 2.2%. More notably, services inflation jumped 0.4 ppt, very probably due to the impact of the timing of Easter affecting airfares and holiday costs. As was the case when this Easter effect last happe
May 01, 2025
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Headlines provide some relief, but picture remains worrying
May 1, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
April’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 has held up better than expected, and most regional Fed surveys, falling only marginally from March’s 49.0. Prices paid have also shown less response to the increased tariffs than generally feared, with only a marginal gain to 69.8 from 69.4.
U.S. Initial Claims bounce a warning rather than a clear change of trend
May 1, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims and continued claims have both seen a bounce in the latest week, the former to 241kk from 223k and the latter to 1916k from 1833k. While there may be some seasonal adjustment issues from Easter, the data serves as a tentative warning that the labor market may be starting to lose momen
April 30, 2025
Mexico’s GDP Review: Saved from the Technical Recession, but Growth Slows
April 30, 2025 2:52 PM UTC
Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q1 2025 with 0.2% GDP growth, driven by a volatile rebound in agriculture. However, industrial output contracted and services stagnated, highlighting a broader economic slowdown. Uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs and tight monetary and fiscal po
U.S. March Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices confirm Q1 totals, March Pending Home Sales rebound
April 30, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending report is largely old news with Q1 totals visible in the GDP report. Despite the upside surprise in the Q1 core PCE price index, March’s data was even softer than expected at unchanged, with the upside surprise in Q1 coming from an upward revision to February
U.S. Q1 GDP dips, Imports surge goes into inventories and business investment
April 30, 2025 1:07 PM UTC
The 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP is in line with expectations that were downgraded from a marginal increase after yesterday’s sharp rise in March’s advance goods trade deficit. A 3.5% rise in the core PCE price index is stronger than expected. While the Q1 data does not tell us very much about Q2, the
U.S. April ADP Employment - Weak but detail looks unlikely to be matched in non-farm payroll
April 30, 2025 12:26 PM UTC
ADP’s April estimate of private sector employment growth of 62k is a significant slowing from recent trend, though the ADP track record as a non-farm payroll indicator leaves us cautious over revising our payroll call of 145k, 135k private sector. Initial claims still suggest little labor market w
April 29, 2025
U.S. April Consumer Confidence, March JOLTS Job Openings - Future weakness signalled
April 29, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
The latest data suggest upcoming weakness in the US economy. March consumer confidence at 86.0 from 93.9 continues its recent slide with the drop being led by future expectations, while March’s JOLTS report on job openings has seen a steeper than expected drop of 288k to 7192k, with February revis
U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Deficit - Increases risk of negative Q1 GDP
April 29, 2025 12:56 PM UTC
March’s advance goods trade deficit of $162.0bn from $147.8bn in February is significantly wider than expected as well as a record high and adds to the risk of a negative Q1 GDP outcome. Exports rose by a respectable 1.2%, but imports surged by 5.0% ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
April 28, 2025
Argentina: Activity Continues Growing
April 28, 2025 1:15 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy grew 2.3% in February and 6% year-on-year, showing continued short-term recovery driven by financial and mining sectors. However, rising imports and an overvalued exchange rate are straining reserves, despite IMF support. While agricultural exports may ease pressure mid-year, s
April 25, 2025
April 24, 2025
U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February bounce more than fully earsed
April 24, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
March existing home sales with a 5.9% fall to 4.02m are the weakest since September and contrast a strong month from new home sales, leaving the overall housing picture unclear. The data does follow weakness in recent pending home sales data and other survey evidence.
April 23, 2025
Brazil: Fiscal Result Improves but Structural Changes Remains in Doubt
April 23, 2025 5:57 PM UTC
Brazil’s fiscal data shows slight improvement, with a 0.1% primary deficit by February and a 2024 deficit in line with targets, excluding flood aid. The 2025 goal is a 0% deficit, but structural issues remain. Recent gains stem from reduced court-ordered payments and delayed hiring. However, risin
U.S. March New Home Sales - Bounce probably assisted by weather, no clear trend
April 23, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
March new home sales at 724k are up by 7.4% and the highest since April 2024. The strength outperforms most recent housing sector surveys though there is still little clear direction to trend. Improved weather is probably the main reason for the monthly bounce.
U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing picks up but Services slip
April 23, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
April’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing showing an unexpected improvement to 50.7 from 50.2 but services slipping significantly to 51.4 from 54.4. This contrasts March data when manufacturing slipped but services increased, suggesting not too much should be read into the mon
South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March
April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC
Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar