Data Reviews
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September 19, 2024
U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Downtrend resumes but may bottom soon
September 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
August existing home sales with a 2.5% decline to 3.86m have resumed a downtrend after a 1.5% July increase. This is consistent with most housing sector survey evidence through August but signals for September are more positive, which Fed easing should assist.
BoE Review: Explicit Gradualism
September 19, 2024 12:05 PM UTC
The expected unchanged MPC decision came with what some may regard was a lack of any major dissent beyond that from arch-dove, Swati Dhingra. But that 8:1 vote is very much a reaction to the closeness of the MPC vote last month to cut Bank Rate by 25 bp to 5.0%. It is also preference from the MP
September 18, 2024
U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Hints of improvement
September 18, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
August housing starts and permits are stronger than expected, starts up 9.6% to 1356k and permits up 4.9% to 1475k. The gains more than fully reverse respective July declines of 6.9% and 3.3% and hint that expectations for Fed easing may be starting to provide some support.
UK CPI Review: Inflation Stable and Services Resilience Still Evident?
September 18, 2024 6:31 AM UTC
The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence. The August data showed mixed signs on such a basis. Indeed, services inflation rose back
September 17, 2024
U.S. September NAHB Homebuilders Index - Off the low, led by 6-month expectations
September 17, 2024 2:09 PM UTC
September’s rise in the NAHB homebuilders’ index to 41 from 39 is the first increase in the index since March reached 51 and suggests expectations for Fed easing are starting to have an impact.
U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos lead bounce, though revisions negattive
September 17, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
August industrial production with gains of 0.8% overall and 0.9% in manufacturing has surprised clearly on the upside. The gain was led by a rebound in autos from a weak July but manufacturing ex autos saw a 0.3% increase to erase two straight preceding declines.
U.S. August Retail Sales continue to show resilience
September 17, 2024 12:49 PM UTC
August retail sales have held up a little better than expected with a 0.1% increase though this is largely because autos were more resilient than industry data had suggested. Gains of 0.1% ex autos and 0.2% ex autos and gasoline were marginally softer than expected.
September 16, 2024
U.S. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey - first positive since November
September 16, 2024 12:48 PM UTC
September’s Empire Sate manufacturing index of 11.5 from -4.7 is the first positive since November 2023 and the strongest since April 2022. The series is volatile and should be read cautiously but argues against recent signs of economic slowing extending into risk of recession.
September 13, 2024
U.S. September Michigan CSI - Higher, including long-term inflation expectation
September 13, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
September’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 69.0 from 67.9 is slightly firmer, with both current conditions and expectations contributing. Inflation expectations are mixed, but a rise in the 5-10 year view outweighs a fall in the 1-year view.
September 12, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: 4.2% only in August
September 12, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 4.2% in August, surpassing market expectations, with Y/Y inflation falling to 236% from 260%. Public service tariff adjustments, particularly in Transport and Housing, were key inflation drivers. Food prices increased 3.5%, while goods CPI grew 3.2%, suggesting a slowing infla
September 11, 2024
Brazil CPI Review: Drop on Electricity Prices Warrants Stability in August
September 11, 2024 10:31 PM UTC
In August, Brazil’s CPI remained stable at 0% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.2% from 4.5% in July. This stability was driven by declines in the Housing group and food prices. Education and household expenditures increased by 0.7%, while the Transport group stayed unch
Preview: Due September 12 - U.S. August PPI - In line with a subdued underlying trend
September 11, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in August PPI, matching the outcome of July, while the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade both increase by 0.2%, all suggesting a subdued underlying picture.
U.S. August CPI - Core at a four month high led by shelter and air fares
September 11, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
August core CPI has disappointed to the upside with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy with the rise being 0.28% before rounding, a four month high. Overall CPI rose by 0.2% as expected, and by 0.19% before rounding. The data is likely to ensure that the FOMC eases by only 25bps in September. Shelter an
UK GDP Review: More Mixed Messages Give BoE Food for Thought
September 11, 2024 6:34 AM UTC
Surprising to the downside, the economy failed to show more positive signs with the July GDP data. Indeed, GDP was flat in m/m terms for the second successive month, compared to a 0.2% m/m rise widely envisaged. Thus the data still show showing volatility, as GDP growth has been positive in only
September 10, 2024
Mexico CPI Review: 0% Inflation in August as Expected
September 10, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI remained flat in August, causing year-over-year CPI to drop from 5.6% to 5.0%. This stability was driven by a 0.7% decline in non-core CPI, while core CPI rose 0.2%. The Food and Beverages CPI fell 0.6%, reflecting easing pressure on agricultural goods. With the economy cooling, inflati
September 06, 2024
Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem
U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower
Eurozone: Sobering Services and Domestic Demand News is Food for ECB Doves
September 6, 2024 10:53 AM UTC
The fact that EZ growth was revised down a notch to 0.2% in Q2 is of little importance – it partly reflects a small recovery in imports that we have been flagging for some time would be a likely break on recorded activity. Over and beyond more signs of slowing wage pressures in Q2 data, more not
September 05, 2024
U.S. August ISM Services - Still showing modest expansion
September 5, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
August’s ISM services index at 51.5 is almost unchanged from July’s 51.4 and implies an economy continuing to expand at a modest pace. Employment at 50.2 is down from July’s 51.1, but in being above the neutral 50 remains stronger than the readings seen from February through June.
U.S. August ADP Employment - Losing momentum, but initial claims suggest a healthy labor market
September 5, 2024 12:46 PM UTC
ADP’s August estimate for private sector employment growth of 99k is below expectations and consistent with a continued slowing of the labor market, with the gain being the slowest since January 2021. While the data suggests some downside risk to non-farm payrolls, our private sector payrolls call
September 04, 2024
U.S. July JOLTS report on Job Openings - Gradual slowing in trend continues
September 4, 2024 2:27 PM UTC
July’s JOLTS report is weaker than expected with job openings down by 237k to 7.673m, the lowest level since January 2021, though the monthly decline is not exceptional and the trend continues to be gradually slowing at a similar pace to recent months.
U.S. July trade deficit increases on lower auto exports, Canada moves into surplus on lower auto imports
September 4, 2024 12:55 PM UTC
July’s US trade deficit of $78.8bn is up from $73.0bn in June and the widest since June 2022, restoring a deteriorating trend after a correction lower in the deficit in June, though July’s deficit is not quite as wide as expected. July’s deficit was inflated by a weak month from auto exports,
September 03, 2024
Brazil: GDP Surprises in Q2, Growing 1.4% (q/q)
September 3, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
Brazil's Q2 GDP grew 1.4% (q/q), surpassing expectations, driven by strong industrial growth and robust internal demand. Investment increased by 2.1%, while external demand lagged due to rising imports. Agriculture declined due to floods, but services grew steadily. With internal demand as the key g
Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August
September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit
September 02, 2024
Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY
September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de
August 30, 2024
Canada Q2 GDP lifted by government, but little momentum in monthly data
August 30, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
Canada’s Q2 GDP increase of 2.1% annualized is on the high side of expectations and above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s monetary policy report. However with a flat June and the preliminary estimate for July also unchanged there does not appear to be much momentum entering Q3,
August 29, 2024
U.S. July Pending Home Sales see renewed weakness
August 29, 2024 2:11 PM UTC
July pending home sales with a 5.5% decline have unexpectedly more than fully reversed a 4.8% June increase which suggests further near term weakness in in store for existing home sales, even if Fed easing in September is likely to support the market.
U.S. Q2 GDP revised even higher on consumer spending, July trade deficit widens but initial claims stabilizing
August 29, 2024 1:11 PM UTC
Q2 has seen a marginal upward revision to 3.0% from an already strong 2.8% with the revision due to consumer spending, now at 2.9% from 2.3% and maintaining a picture of surprising resilience. Core PCE prices were revised slightly lower to 2.8% from 2.9%. While Q2 GDP is strong a wider advance July
German Data Review: Inflation Back at Target?
August 29, 2024 12:29 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process has not been smooth due to swings in base effects and this was again clearly the case in the August data. After July saw the headline HICP rate rise an unexpected 0.1 ppt to 2.6%, unwinding a third of fall seen in June, it plummeted this month to a 41-month low of
August 27, 2024
U.S. August Consumer Confidence - Firmer but labor market and inflation views lower
August 27, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
August consumer confidence is stronger in the headline at 103.3 from 101.9, reaching its highest level since February, though the detail shows a further deterioration in the labor market and a dip in inflation expectations.
August 20, 2024
Riksbank Deliver 25bps and More to Come
August 20, 2024 7:58 AM UTC
Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after today’s 25bps cut to 3.50%. We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meeting and a further 25bps is possible at the November meeting if inflation remains under cont
August 15, 2024
Argentina: CPI at 4.0% in July
August 15, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Argentina's July CPI rose 4.0%, the lowest since January 2022, yet still above the 2% crawling peg, suggesting real exchange rate appreciation. Year-over-year CPI fell to 263% from 271% in June, with further declines anticipated. Despite some inflation reduction under Milei, price distortions and re
U.S. July Industrial Production - Weakness due to temporary factors
August 15, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
July industrial production is weaker tan expected at -0.6% overall and-0.3% for manufacturing with strong data in June seeing significant negative revisions, though Hurricane Beryl was seen as taking 0.3% off the July data, while a sharp drop in autos took 0.6% off manufacturing output, leaving the
U.S. July Retail Sales and Initial Claims show resilience, easing slowdown fears
August 15, 2024 12:52 PM UTC
July retail sales with a stronger than expected 1.0% increase shows the consumer still has some momentum at the start of Q3, while a dip in initial claims to 227k from 234k suggests the labor market is not seeing increased weakness in early August. August manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed at
August 14, 2024
U.S. July CPI - Core below 0.2% before rounding for a third straight month
August 14, 2024 1:08 PM UTC
July CPI is consistent with inflationary pressures continuing to ease towards target with gains of 0.2% overall and ex food and energy as expected, but before rounding the gains were only 0.155% and 0.165% respectively.
August 13, 2024
U.S. July PPI - Trade corrects June gain, elsewhere data slightly firmer
August 13, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
July PPI provided a subdued 0.1% increase overall, and an even softer unchanged outcome ex food and energy, but a firmer 0.3% increase ex food, energy and trade. Trade corrected from strength in June when overall PPI rose by a revised 0.2%, ex food and energy was quite firm at 0.3% but ex food, ener
U.S. July NFIB survey - Significant bounce while inflationary pressures fade
August 13, 2024 11:56 AM UTC
Contrasting fears of a weakening economy, July’s NFIB small business optimism index of 93.7 from 91.5 has bounced to its highest level since February 2022, most likely due to hopes of Fed easing. Details also show a slowing in inflationary pressure.
August 09, 2024
Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY
August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti
Banxico Review: 25bps Cut Amid the Risk
August 9, 2024 1:08 PM UTC
Banxico narrowly voted (3-2) to cut the policy rate by 25bps, despite rising headline inflation and peso depreciation. Core inflation is declining, standing at 4% year-over-year, with expectations of further decreases. Inflation is projected to hit the 3% target by Q4 2025. Future rate decisions wil
Canada July Employment - Anther subdued headline, mixed detail
August 9, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment data is weak on the headline with a 2.8k decline but mixed in the detail with strong job growth from full time and public sector work, and unemployment unchanged at 6.4%. Wage growth slowed from an above trend June but remains quite strong. The data does not appear to be a