Data Reviews
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August 15, 2025
U.S. July Industrial Production - A flat picture, but Empire State survey stronger in August
August 15, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
July industrial production has seen a 0.1% decline overall with manufacturing unchanged, both following two straight gains. Mining fell by 0.4%, a second straight drop, while weather-sensitive utilities saw a marginal 0.2% decline after a rise of 1.8% in June.
U.S. July Retail Sales - Resilieint entering Q3
August 15, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
July retail sales with a 0.5% increase are in line with expectations, with net upward revisions totaling 0.4%. Ex auto sales rose by 0.3% also with 0.4% in upward revisions while ex auto and gasoline sales rose by 0.2%, here with revisions of only 0.2%. The data suggest consumer spending is holdin
August 14, 2025
Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025
August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R
August 13, 2025
Deceleration in Inflation Resumes in Russia: 8.8% YoY in July
August 13, 2025 7:28 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on August 13, inflation stood at 8.8% YoY in July after hitting 9.4% YoY in June, ignited by higher non-food and services prices. Despite inflation eased for a fourth straight month, we foresee inflation will continue to st
August 12, 2025
U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July
August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC
Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.
U.S. July CPI - Core rate, particularly services, a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
July’s CPI is in line with consensus at 0.2% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy, but the core rate of 0.322% before rounding is a little high for comfort. The detail shows the acceleration from June was more in services than goods, so the story is not a simple one of tariffs.
U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism pricks up, inflationary signals slip
August 12, 2025 11:48 AM UTC
July’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 100.3 from 98.6 has reached its highest level since February, regaining momentum after a pause in June. Encouragingly, inflationary signals have slipped back after a bounce in June.
August 11, 2025
August 08, 2025
Canada July Employment - A weak month after a strong month
August 8, 2025 12:54 PM UTC
Canada’s surprisingly strong June employment report has been followed by a significant correction lower in July, with a fall of 40.8k to follow a rise of 83.1k, Full time work is negative over the two months, a 51.0k fall after a 13.5k increase, while part time work with a rise of 10.3k extended a
August 07, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims moving higher again. Few inflationary scares in Q2 Productivity and Costs report
August 7, 2025 12:59 PM UTC
Initial claims at 226k from 219k have now seen two straight gains after six straight losses. The 4-week average of 220.75k is the lowest since April 19 but looks unlikely to fall further. Q2 productivity and costs data does not do anything to add to inflation fears at the Fed.
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August 05, 2025
June US trade deficit falls on weak imports, Canada trade deficit increases on one-time imports bounce
August 5, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
June’s US trade deficit of $60.2bn is even lower than expected, down from $71.7bn in May and in slipping marginally below April’s $60.3bn has reached its lowest level since September 2023. Exports fell by 0.5%, a second straight decline, but imports fell by 3.7%, a third straight fall as strong
August 04, 2025
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 4, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
August 01, 2025
U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Deliveries lead slowing, inflationary signals less strong
August 1, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
July’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.8 is the weakest since October 2024 and unexpectedly down from 49.0 in June. The sharpest fall in the composite breakdown was in delivery times, to 49.3 from 54.2, and that implies reduced inflationary pressures.
U.S. July Employment - Revisions to May and June mean trend has slowed significantly
August 1, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected not only with the 73k headline and 83k rise in the private sector, but also with large downward revisions totaling 258k for May and June. Unemployment remains low but edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% while average hourly earnings were on consensus at 0.3%,
July 31, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims still low, Employment Cost Index still firm, Q2 income and spending totals confirmed
July 31, 2025 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims with a 1k rise to 218k may have marginally broken a string of six straight declines but are lower than expected, while a 0.9% rise in the Q2 employment cost index is stronger than expected, further signaling continued labor markets strength. June’s personal income and spending repor
German Data Review: Services Inflation Slows Further?
July 31, 2025 12:39 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected July preliminary HICP numbers reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.2 ppt drop to 1.8%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! This occurred in spite of adverse energy base effects. Regardless, there was some reversal of June’s surprise and
July 30, 2025
U.S. Q2 GDP - Subdued underlying growth, but with persistent price pressures
July 30, 2025 1:12 PM UTC
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 3.0% is stronger than expected though an above consensus outcome had looked likely after yesterday’s decline in June’s trade deficit. Given extreme volatility in net exports the Q2 data should be seen alongside Q1’s 0.5% decline, giving an average of an unimpr
U.S. July ADP Employment - Rebound from June decline
July 30, 2025 12:29 PM UTC
ADP’s July estimate of private sector employment shows a stronger than expected rebound of 104k from a negative June, revised to -23k from, -33k. The ADP gain is in line with our forecast for private sector payrolls at 110k. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 125k.
Eurozone Flash GDP Review: Resilience or Irrelevance?
July 30, 2025 9:52 AM UTC
As we highlighted in our preview, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. We think this will continue to be the case even after
July 29, 2025
EZ Real Economy – Diverging Sentiment Indictors Complicate Outlook
July 29, 2025 9:26 AM UTC
The ECB contends that the EZ economy has shown resilience of late. Maybe so, albeit where GDP data (likely to average a satisfactory 0.3% q/q performance so far this year) are probably offering a misleading picture of underlying trends in real activity. Indeed, recent GDP data gains have been pr
July 23, 2025
Food Prices Lifted South Africa Inflation to 3.0% YoY in June
July 23, 2025 12:36 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on July 23 that annual inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in June from 2.8% in May as food prices reached a 15-month high coupled with elevated restaurant and health services prices. The inflation is still within South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)
July 17, 2025
U.S. June NAHB Homebuilders Index - Slightly higher but still weak
July 17, 2025 2:17 PM UTC
July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has seen a modest correction higher to 33 from June’s 32 which was the weakest since December 2022, but still leaves a subdued picture, suggesting limited near term upside scope or new home sales.
U.S. June Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Claims, July Philly Fed - Economy regaining momentum in the tariff pause
July 17, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
The latest US data presents a picture of an economy regaining some momentum as tariff fears fade, at least temporarily. June retail sales with gains of 0.6% overall and ex auto and gas, with ex autos and the control group which contributes to GDP both up 0.5%, ended Q2 on a firm note. July’s Phill
UK Labor Market – No Lack of Slack
July 17, 2025 6:58 AM UTC
Even the BoE has acknowledged that the UK economy is developing slack in its labor market that we suggest is now not so much less tight but decidedly loose. Indeed, just days after BoE Governor Bailey suggested that signs of increasing labor market slack might prompt faster rate cuts, more such evid
July 16, 2025
U.S. June Industrial Production - Tentative signs of underlying improvement
July 16, 2025 1:32 PM UTC
June industrial production has seen a 0.3% rise overall led by utilities which were lifted by unusually hot weather. Manufacturing saw a modest rise of 0.1%, but this is a second straight gain and the fourth rise in five months, with May revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%.
U.S. June PPI - Soft data partially offset by revisions but services are leading a slowing in trend
July 16, 2025 1:06 PM UTC
June PPI is, like most recent months softer than expected, unchanged overall and in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. However consistent with most recent months the preceding month has been revised higher, May to 0.3% overall from 0.1% and ex food and energy to 0.4% ov
UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Fails to Fall Further as Headline Surprises on Upside?
July 16, 2025 6:42 AM UTC
Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late and these may have reoccurred in the June numbers partly explaining June numbers which surprised on the upside. Indeed, June saw the headline and core rise a further 0.2 ppt – the former to an 18-mth high of 3.6%. Moreover, se
July 15, 2025
U.S. June CPI - Tariff pass-through limited but not zero
July 15, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
June core CPI at 0.228% before rounding is on the low side of expectations and still shows a limited, though not zero, feed through from tariffs. Moderate gains in food and energy lifted overall CPI to a 0.3% increase, with the gain rounded up from 0.287%. Trump will use this data to argue for Fed
India CPI Review: CPI at 2.1%: Increased Headroom for One More Cut
July 15, 2025 4:33 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven.
July 11, 2025
Deceleration in Inflation, Albeit Gradual, Continued in June: 9.4% YoY
July 11, 2025 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.4% YoY in June after hitting 9.9% YoY in May, partly due to favorable base impacts, recent RUB strengthening and falling oil prices. We think the recent tariffs hike for electricity, gas, heating and w
Canada June Employment - Strong gain broad based but hard to sustain if tariff escalation persists
July 11, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
Canada’s June employment report with a rise of 83.1k is sharply ahead of expectations, even when noting that most of the gains came in a 69.5k rise in part time employment. The data may have been supported by a temporary easing of trade tensions that have subsequently escalated with yesterday’s
UK GDP Review: Another Downside Surprise
July 11, 2025 6:28 AM UTC
After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP. But that 0.3% m/m drop was almost repeated in the May numbers (Figure 1), where a further albeit smaller (ie 0.1%) fall occurred, but very much below consensus. Admittedly
July 10, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims - Four straight declines after three straight gains
July 10, 2025 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims have seen a fourth straight decline, by 5k to 227k, largely reversing three straight declines that preceded them. The four week average moved higher from mid-April through early June. It may be that the damage done from the April 2 tariff announcement is starting to fade.
July 09, 2025
Eurozone: Damage Limitations on Tariffs, Uncertainty to add to Banks' Caution??
July 9, 2025 9:37 AM UTC
It remains unclear just how much of a movable feast the new U.S. tariff deadline of Aug 1 actually is. Trade deals with the US were supposed to be agreed by today, or face the reciprocal tariffs as outlined in April. But that has now been deferred to, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, hinting ac
July 08, 2025
U.S. June NFIB survey - Marginal dip, higher prices
July 8, 2025 12:04 PM UTC
June’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.6 has seen a marginal correction lower from May’s 98.6, which was the first increase since December surged to 98.8. Even April’s low of 95.8 was higher than pre-election levels, showing the election result lifted sentiment more than tariffs da
July 03, 2025
U.S. June ISM Services - Hit from tariffs shows signs of fading
July 3, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
June’s ISM services index of 50.8 from 49.9 has rebounded above neutral after falling to 49.9 in May but is still quite subdued. Detail shows bounces from weakness in May in business activity and new orders but slippage in employment and delivery times restrained the composite.
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte
Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Inches Up, But BI Still Has Room to Ease
July 3, 2025 8:12 AM UTC
Indonesia’s inflation edged up to 1.87% yr/yr in June on higher food prices, but overall price pressures remain subdued. With CPI well within Bank Indonesia’s target range and growth momentum softening, the central bank retains room to cut rates again in the second half of 2025.
July 02, 2025
Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal
U.S. June ADP Employment - Surprise decline surprisingly led by services
July 2, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
ADP’s June estimate of private sector employment shows the first decline since March 2023, contrasting positive job openings data yesterday but consistent with recent higher initial claims data. ADP surveys have recently been underperforming non-farm payrolls, for which it is not a reliable guide,
July 01, 2025
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up
June 30, 2025
German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)! Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be