U.S. May Personal Income and Spending slip, Core PCE Prices above consensus but not alarming

June 27, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

May’s core PCE price index, while not alarming, is at 0.2% a little firmer than expected, with yr/yr growth rising to 2.7% from an upwardly revised 2.6% (from 2.5%) in April. Personal income and spending data is weak, down by 0.4% and 0.,1% respectively.

U.S. May New Home Sales - Strong April, weak May, prices rise, but trend may be slowing

June 25, 2025 2:36 PM UTC

May new home sales have fallen by 13.7% to 623k to more than fully reverse April’s 9.6% rise to 722k (revised from 743k). April’s total (after the revision) is the highest since May 2023 while May’s total is the lowest since October 2024. Trend has no clear direction but on balance housing dat

U.S. June Consumer Confidence slips on labor market perceptions

June 24, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Contrasting a stronger preliminary June Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has slipped to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The contrast with the Michigan CSI comes after May data when the Michigan CSI remained weak but the Conference Board index bounced from 85.7 in April

U.S. June Philly Fed - Details mostly weak

June 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

June’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -4.0 is unchanged from May and weaker than expected. The details are generally soft, with 6-month expectations slowing to 18.3 from May’s very strong 47.2, though the 6-month view is still stronger than seen in March and April.

Brazil: Last Hike And Then Long Hold

June 19, 2025 6:33 AM UTC

Though the BCB surprised and hiked by 25bps to 15%, the statement signalled that policy will now go on hold for a very long period.  Some economists feel that by year-end, that the BCB will be confident enough to move from very restrictive to restrictive and lower the SELIC rate.  We would suspect

U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits, Weekly Initial Claims - Trends weakening

June 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

May housing starts with a 9.8% decline to 1256k are well below expectations and the weakest since June 2020 through a 2.0% fall in permits, also below consensus, suggests a fairly moderate weakening in trend. Initial claims at 245k from 250k and continued claims at .945m from 1.951m are slightly low

South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do

UK CPI Review: Services Inflation Falls Clearly

June 18, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

As for the UK, the main near-term inflation story was (and remains) what would happen after the April data when a series of energy, utility, post office and some other regulated and service price rises fell due, albeit now offset somewhat by a fall in petrol prices.  The result was a notch higher t

U.S. May Retail Sales - Two straight declines as confidence slides

June 17, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

May retail sales with a 0.9% decline are slightly weaker than expected. The ex auto data at -0.3% and ex auto and gas at -0.1% are negative too, though the control group which contributes to GDP was resilient with a 0.4% rise. 

U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Weak but 6-month expectations bounce

June 16, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

June's Empire State manufacturing index at -16.0 from -9.2 suggests increasing weakness, though the series can be erratic, as noted by a -20.0 reading in March and a positive 20.2 in November 2024, neither of which was sustained. Six month expectations saw a significant bounce, to 21.2 from -2.0. 

Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

U.S. June Preliminary Michigan CSI - Back to levels seen before the reciprocal tariff announcement

June 13, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

June’s preliminary Michigan CSI has seen a significant bounce to 60.5 from 52.2, putting the index to its highest since February assisted by reduced tariffs against China. The one-year inflation view has fallen to 5.1% from 6.6% though the 5-10 year view at 4.1% is down only marginally from 4.2%.

Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY

June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i

U.S. May PPI - Soft but recent revisions have been large, initial claims picking up

June 12, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

May’s PPI, matching May’s CPI, has come in softer than expected at 0.1% and in both the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, though the downside surprise is partially offset by upward revisions to April, overall and ex food and energy both to -0.2% from -0.5% and -0.4% r

UK GDP Review: GDP Overstating Activity Less Clearly But Looking Weaker?

June 12, 2025 6:54 AM UTC

After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP could be expected for the April data, especially as Q1 numbers may have been boosted by added production destined for the U.S in anticipation of tariffs.  In addition, real estate activity seems to have dropped after the raisin

U.S. Budget Deficit falls in May, Tariffs explaining over half of the narrowing

June 11, 2025 6:28 PM UTC

May saw a budget deficit of $316bn, down from $347.1bn in May 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1364.7bn is up from $1202.3bn in the eight months to May 2024. The 12-month average has however slipped below $2trillion for the first time in the current fiscal year. The deficit in

U.S. May CPI - Little tariff pass-through, with inflationary pressures elsewhere fading

June 11, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

May CPI has surprised significantly to the downside, up only 0.1% both headline and core, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.08% and 0.13%. The data is subdued across the board, with commodities ex food and energy unchanged despite tariffs and services ex energy on the low side of tre

U.S. May NFIB survey suggests tariff worries are easing

June 10, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

May’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.8 from 95.8 corrected from four straight declines brought about by tariff concerns, the reversal of the tariff escalation with China probably significant. These straight declines from December’s 105.1 failed to fully reverse the post-election bou

New York Fed survey shows slower U.S. inflation expectations in May

June 9, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations shows slippage in inflation expectations from what were elevated near term views in April, while the 5-year view is the lowest since January 2024. This hints that consumers have not seen sharp price hikes in May, reducing upside risks to the C

U.S. May Employment - Resilient picture suggests no urgency for Fed easing

June 6, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

May’s non-farm payroll with a 139k increase, is on the firm side of expectations, particularly after the ADP report, and suggests the economy is not on the cusp of recession yet. Revisions were negative at 95k but leave a stable-looking picture, while average hourly earnings were above trend with

Eurozone: The Tail Wagging the Dog?

June 6, 2025 10:26 AM UTC

Given what now looks to have been an outstanding first quarter, the ECB’s assertion at this month’s Council press conference that it is a good position to navigate the uncertain conditions looks more tenable.  After all, GDP jumped 0.6%, twice the previous estimate.  But this is no indicator o

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Moderates Making Room For Rate Cut

June 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation slowed further in May, while the country’s trade surplus narrowed to its lowest level in five years, deepening expectations that Bank Indonesia (BI) could pursue additional rate cuts later this year to cushion slowing domestic growth.

U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings correct after two straight declines

June 3, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

April’s JOLTS report shows an unexpected increase, of 191k to 7.391m. The rise follows two straight declines and the 3-monrth average remains negative at -124k, though the 6-month average of -37k remains close to neutral as it has been since October. The series is a volatile one. Trend is probably

Moderate GDP Growth for South Africa in Q1: 0.1% QoQ, 0.8% YoY

June 3, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew moderately by 0.1% QoQ and 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2025. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on June 3, despite growth in agriculture, transport and finance, a strain on the mining and manufacturing industri

EZ HICP and Labor Market Review: Headline Back Below Target as Services Inflation Reverses Easter Effect

June 3, 2025 9:42 AM UTC

EZ HICP inflation met our below-consensus expectation in dropping to an eight-month low and below-target 1.9% (Figure 1) helped by rounding and a further m/m fall in fuel prices.  More notably, having jumped 0.5 ppt to 4.0% in April, very probably due to the impact of the timing of Easter affecting

Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to the Lowest Since November 2021 with 35.4% YoY in May

June 3, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that the inflation softened to 35.4% y/y in April from 37.9% y/y in April. We think monetary tightening, fiscal measures and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure. Despite this, inflationary risks remain tilted to th

U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Still weak in most components

June 2, 2025 2:18 PM UTC

May’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.5 is slightly weaker than April’s 48.7 and that comes as a disappointment given improvements in some other surveys and a slightly less alarming tariff picture than was the case in April. 

U.S. April Trade Deficit falls sharply after tariffs imposed, Personal Income strong, Spending and Core PCE Prices subdued

May 30, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

While March personal spending is subdued as expected with a 0.2% rise, personal income shows surprising strength with a rise of 0.8%, while core PCE prices are subdued as expected, up 0.1%, underperforming a 0.2% core CPI. A much smaller than expected advance April trade deficit of $87.6bn is suppor

German Data Review: Lower Headline Services Surge Reverses

May 30, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low.  Most notable amid a drop caused

Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1

May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit

U.S. April Pending Home Sales - Renewed weakness

May 29, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 6.3% April decline have more than fully reversed a 5.5% March increase (revised lower from 6.1%) to resume a picture of underlying weakness. Recent gains in mortgage rates in response to rising UST yields may have contributed to the drop.

U.S. May Consumer Confidence bounce likely supported by equities

May 27, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

Contrasting continued weakness in the Michigan CSI, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has seen a sharp bounce in May, to 98.0 from 85.7, led by consumer expectations, which appears related to rising equities as trade tensions reduced somewhat.

Eurozone: US Stepped-Up Tariff Threat – Negotiations or Concessions?

May 27, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

At least within markets there is some relief that President Trump has deferred his ramped up 50% tariff threat from early June to July 9.  Unambiguously positive is the fact that a better line of communication, if not rapport, now seems to exist between the U.S. president and EU Commission Presiden

U.S. April New Home Sales - Stronger than most housing sector signals

May 23, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

April new home sales at 743k are surprisingly strong and in contrast to the majority of housing sector indicators that have recently shown signs of weakness. The suprise is however partially offset by a downward revision to March, to 670k from 724k, a number most though would not be matched in April

Eurozone: Waging War on Wages

May 23, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

After a protracted period of elevated EZ cost and price pressures, a reversal seems to be very much underway.  Headline and underlying HICP inflation have moved back toward target, but to reinforce this downtrend there are an increasing array of softer cost pressure signals.  ECB wage tracker and