U.S. Initial Claims - Four straight declines after three straight gains
Initial claims have seen a fourth straight decline, by 5k to 227k, largely reversing three straight declines that preceded them. The four week average moved higher from mid-April through early June. It may be that the damage done from the April 2 tariff announcement is starting to fade.
Trump’s fresh tariff escalation may pose some risks going forward. The survey week for July’s non-farm payroll comes next week. This week contains the 4 July holiday, but unlike some other holidays this year, did not produce a spike in initial claims.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims, and at 1.965m are on consensus, though up from last week which was revised down to 1.955m from 1.964m. The latest level is the highest since November 2021 though the rise in trend. also seen since mid-April, may be losing momentum.
