DM Central Banks

View:

June 14, 2024

U.S. Fed's Mester - May CPI is welcome news
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

BoJ Review: Pushing Hikes to July, if any
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates and bond purchase the same, suggesting the planning for bond purchase cut will be decided in July

June 13, 2024

...
Norges Bank Preview (Jun 20): Continued Caution?
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

Given the thrust of recent data and the Board’s clear caution, the Norges Bank is very likely to leave the policy rate at 4.5% for a fourth successive meeting at its next Board meeting with the decision due on June 20.  It is also likely to retain the thinking first aired at the December meeting,

June 12, 2024

...
Fed: Door Still Open to 2024 Rate Cuts
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 7:43 PM UTC

Though the June SEP median Fed dot is for one 25bps cut in 2024, the details of the summary of economic projections and guidance from Fed chair Powell during the press conference make clear that one or two cuts are in current Fed thinking.  Data dependence is key for the Fed and we look for less GD

...
FOMC delivers hawkish 2024 dots, but statement slightly more optimistic on inflation
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 6:26 PM UTC

The Fed’s statement is slightly more optimistic on inflation on June than in May, tough continues to require greater confidence that it is moving towards target before easing. The dots are significantly more hawkish than in March, with a median of only one 25bps easing in 2024 rather than three, t

...
BoE Preview (Jun 20): Data Dependent Easing Bias Makes BoE Decision Unclear
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 10:42 AM UTC

After Bank Rate was kept at 5.25% for the sixth successive MPC meeting last month, Governor Bailey remarked that then market rate pricing may be too cautious.  He also accepted that a rate cut at the next MPC verdict on June 20 was a distinct possibility, but underscored the importance of the data

...
SNB Preview (Jun 20): Another Cut Likely but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 9:26 AM UTC

Along with market thinking, we see the SNB on June 20 repeating the 25 bp policy rate cut that it surprised many with three months ago.  This would take the policy rate to 1.25% and where the very clear below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the outlook flagged by the SNB

...
UK GDP Review: Flat April - How Resilient is the Economy?
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is much clearer than any expected with GDP growth notably positive, albeit with some continued volatility.  Indeed, coming in more than expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.4% m/m

June 11, 2024

...
UK CPI Inflation Preview (Jun 19): Inflation Falls To Target?
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

It is very clear that labor market and CPI data are crucial to BoE thinking about the timing and even the existence of any start to an easing cycle.  But perhaps the CPI data is the most crucial especially with April’s signs of resilient services (and particularly in regard to eating out) very mu

June 10, 2024

...
European Parliament Election Results: A Swing to the Centre Right But Further Right in France
Paying Article

June 10, 2024 8:52 AM UTC

This week-end’s European Parliament elections produced the widely expected swing to the right, albeit more an electoral rebuff for incumbent ruling parties as voters registered their protests against current governments.   Hard-right parties largely did well but there were clear exceptions (Belg

June 07, 2024

...
FOMC Preview For June 12: Hawkish Dots, Flexible Press Conference
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on June 12 and looks sure to leave the target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. The tone of the statement may be influenced by the May CPI that will be released on the morning of the decision, but even if CPI surprises on the downside is unlikely to give any hints easing is

June 06, 2024

...
ECB Review: Clearly No Policy Pre-Commitment But Policy Entering New Phase
Paying Article

June 6, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

As has been the case with many recent ECB verdicts, markets are keener to hear what is being said by the Council rather than what has been done.  In regard to the latter, and given the almost unanimous hints from Council members, all policy rates were cut by the expected 25 bp, with the key deposit

June 05, 2024

...
Bank of Canada Eases by 25bps on Improved Inflation Picture
Paying Article

June 5, 2024 4:49 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a 25bps easing to 4.75% as expected and the tone of the statement and particularly the press conference was somewhat dovish, giving some detail on why it is pleased with progress on inflation. However easing at each of the remaining four meetings this year looks unlikely

June 04, 2024

...
European Parliament Election: A Swing to the Right?
Paying Article

June 4, 2024 9:09 AM UTC

This week-end (Jun 6-9 actually) sees fresh European Parliament elections, with it likely that that compared to the last (2019) result, there will be a clear swing to right-wing and/or populist parties.  However, polls do not suggest anything like enough of swing away from the current parliamentary

June 03, 2024

...
UK GDP Preview (Jun 12): Fresh Correction on the Cards?
Paying Article

June 3, 2024 1:52 PM UTC

The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is much clearer than any expected with GDP growth notably positive.  Indeed, coming in more than expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.4% m/m in March accentuating the upgraded boun

May 31, 2024

...
Bank of Canada to Deliver a Cautious 25bps Easing on June 5
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 4:34 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 5 and we believe they will see recent inflationary data as having delivered sufficient progress to justify a 25bps easing, to 4.75%. The statement will however be careful to state that inflation remains too high and give no strong signals for future moves, which will

May 30, 2024

U.S. Fed's Williams - Expects lower inflation
Paying Article

May 30, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

May 29, 2024

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar to last report
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 6:13 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book looks very similar to the last one released on April 17. Findings on activity and the labor market look acceptable to the Fed, but some inflationary pressure persists.

May 27, 2024

...
BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

May 24, 2024

...
UK Sales Weakness Curbing Pricing Power?
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

Ending an interesting week of UK data, retail sales slumped in April, partly due to what was a wet month.  Notably, sales volumes fell by 2.3% m/m following a broadly flat February and March 2024 and were down by 2.7% y/y and 3.8% below their pre-pandemic level.  This weaker-than-expected outcome

May 23, 2024

...
Eurozone: PMIs Offer More Positive Gimmers – Still Too Good to be True?
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 9:19 AM UTC

The latest PMI data suggest the EZ economic recovery gained further momentum in May as the composite index rose to 52.3 in May from 51.7 in April, thereby implying positive private sector growth for the third consecutive month.  We remain wary about the messages from the data (see below and Figure

May 22, 2024

...
FOMC Minutes from May 1 - Data expected to slow, but alert to risks
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from May 1 do not show a very hawkish view of the economy, with inflation and the economy still expected to slow, though with the former seen at a slower pace and with less confidence. Policy is seen as data-dependent, and the potential for a more hawkish turn if data disappoints can be

...
EZ HICP Preview (May 31): Core Disinflation Continues?
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 11:10 AM UTC

Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This abated in April, with the headline staying at 2.4% but with the core down a further 0.2 ppt to a 27-mth low of 2.7%, as higher fuel prices were offs

...
UK CPI Inflation Review: Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

It is very clear that labor market and CPI data are crucial to BoE thinking about the timing and even the existence of any start to an easing cycle.  But perhaps the CPI data is the most crucial with more signs of resilient services (and particularly in regard to eating out) very much questioning w

RBNZ Review: Higher Rates for Longer
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 5:18 AM UTC

RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 5.5% but revised OCR path in 2025 almost one 25bps hike higher

May 21, 2024

...
German Data Preview (May 29): Inflation to Rise Again Albeit Amid Soft Core Rate Trends?
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings and the path down for inflation has not been smooth.  This will be even more clearly the case in the looming May numbers where a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline rate is on the

...
Canada April CPI - Continued progress in the BoC core rates
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

April’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% is in line with market expectations and shows subdued data on the month and continued progress in reducing the Bank of Canada’s core rates. The headline yr/yr pace is the lowest since March 2021. The data should sustain hopes for a June BoC easing.

The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch

May 20, 2024

...
FOMC Minutes from May 1 to Suggest Restrictive for Longer
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 7:15 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from May 1 are due on May 22. The minutes are likely to be a more hawkish than those from the March 20 meeting released on April 10, given the strength of data released between the two meetings. Restrictive policy for longer so likely to be the message, but with no clear timetable. Soft

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Progress less than would have liked but encouraged by April CPI
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:01 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Barr - Need to allow tight policy further time
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

Fed's Barr appears to have become less dovish in response to Q1 inflation data.

May 16, 2024

U.S. Fed's Mester - Prudent to hold rates for longer, but welcomes April CPI
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:45 PM UTC

May 15, 2024

...
Eurozone: Consumers - Still Missing?
Paying Article

May 15, 2024 10:34 AM UTC

Revised national account data confirmed the upside surprise in the preliminary data with EZ GDP rising 0.3% q/q.  The question is whether this emergence from the modest H2 2023 recession is the start of more sustained momentum.  We think not, mainly due to what are still weak consumer fundamentals

May 14, 2024

U.S. Fed's Powell - Q1 saw lack of further progress on inflation
Paying Article

May 14, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

...
The Aussie Chapter 3: Risk
Paying Article

May 14, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 3, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against major equi

May 13, 2024

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Maintain restrictive policy until more confident
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

May 10, 2024

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Fed to wait and see on inflation
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:37 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Logan - Uncertainties if policy sufficiently restrictive
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Thinking more about when to ease rather than how much
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 12:31 PM UTC