DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026

March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th

Western Europe Outlook: Economies Slip on Oil

March 24, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       In the UK, even without the Middle East impact we were suggesting a sub-consensus 2026 GDP picture which now has even greater downside risks attached.  Our baseline is for 4-8 week war and a reversal of oil prices over 3 quarters. The BoE has a symmetric stance between 2nd round effe

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF

March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC

·       The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1).  The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s

Switzerland: An Alternative Insight into Current Franc Strength!

February 20, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

The increasing strength in the Swiss France is causing reverberations.  More a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness than that of the euro, the nominal trade weighted Franc is hitting new highs (Figure 1).  But while this strength in impairing competitiveness – vital to an economy where exports acc

EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump

February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action.  Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,

USD Hurt by Hedging More than Asset Outflows

January 27, 2026 10:53 AM UTC

The Greenland drama  and fears of BOJ/Fed Intervention on USDJPY has put the USD under renewed downward pressure against DM Currencies.  What happens next?  Overall, we see scope for further USD decline versus DM currencies in 2026 on more currency hedging; some diversification away from the U.S.

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Western Europe Outlook: Underlying Price Pressures Ebbing

December 19, 2025 9:34 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 GDP growth by 0.1 ppt to 1.3%, but pared back that for next year by a two notches to a very sub-par 0.6%. We think the weak(er) labor market will accentuate somewhat refreshed disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further in 2026 by around 75 bp to 3.0

DM FX Outlook: Scope for USD decline against JPY, AUD and NOK

December 18, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: We expect some modest USD losses across the board over the next couple of years, but there is much more scope for losses against the JPY, AUD and NOK than the other G10 currencies, as yield spreads have moved dramatically in favour of these currencies, and the currencies

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC

Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change.  Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation.  Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy

SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?

December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11.  It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1).  But this will be enough to just

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

SNB Review: Staying at Zero – For Some Time?

September 25, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

Very much as expected, both in deed and word, the SNB kept the policy rate at zero this month having cut by 25 bp back in June in June. Indeed, markets priced out what was previously seen as a good chance of rates turning negative, even against a backdrop of the punitive tariff scheme the Swiss econ

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

DM FX Outlook: USD steadies but vulnerable to equity correction

September 23, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The USD has continued to edge lower against the EUR in the last quarter as market expectations of Fed easing have increased following clear weakening in U.S. employment growth. But at this stage the data doesn’t indicate we are heading for recession, and this suggests w

Western Europe Outlook: Policy Divergences

September 23, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.2 ppt back to 1.0%, but pared back that for next year by a notch to a sub-par 0.8%. We think this will refresh somewhat stalled disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further into H1 by around 75 bp. 
·       Sweden has seen a clear e

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

September 17, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Having the SNB cut the policy rate by 25 bp back to zero in June, as widely expected, we see no further change for the time being, and with little likelihood of any move at the quarterly assessment due later this month (Sep 25). Indeed, despite barely positive inflation,  markets have priced out wh

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

DM FX Outlook: USD uncertainty increases as Trump changes the rules

June 24, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: After making initial gains after the election, the USD has followed a similar path to the first Trump presidency, falling back steadily this year as optimism on the economy has faded, with the introduction of tariffs contributing to more negative sentiment. Much as in the

Western Europe Outlook: The First Shall be Last…

June 23, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.3 ppt back to 1.0%.  But this is purely a result of the Q1 front-loading and instead masks what we think will be essentially a flat GDP profile into 2026. The BoE will likely ease further in H2 by at least 50 bp and maybe faster and then i

SNB: Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option

June 19, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

 The SNB would probably prefer to consolidate the effects of previous rate cuts, but the low inflation forecast and downside risk to inflation means that a cut to -0.25% is feasible at the September or December meetings.  The SNB will also hope that the threat of negative rates restrains the CHF s

SNB Preview (Jun 19): Toying With Being Negative?

June 11, 2025 9:23 AM UTC

A further 25 bp cut (to zero) in the SNB policy rate on Jun 19 now looks almost certain.  Weak(er) business surveys suggest that the tariff threat is both tangible and growing and this is before key Swiss pharmaceutical exports come under fire.  Meanwhile, there is the strong currency where FX int

Europe Portfolio Leverage Over Trump

May 14, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

The U.S. will likely introduce a 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals, which will increase pressure on the EU and other European countries (e.g. Switzerland) and also delay serious negotiations close to the 90 day reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9, adding to pressure on Europe by deliberately prolonging

Switzerland: A Triple Disinflationary Threat?

May 7, 2025 1:30 PM UTC

A further 25 bp cut (to zero) in the SNB policy rate on June 19 now looks almost certain.  Weak(er) business surveys suggest that the tariff threat is both tangible and growing.  Meanwhile, there is the strong currency where FX intervention on aby major scale could provoke US retaliation against a

March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

Western Europe Outlook: Price Pressures - Puzzling or Possibly Persistent!

March 25, 2025 10:47 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we continue to retain our below-consensus GDP picture for this year, with growth actually downgraded and with downside risks that may actually be both increasing and materializing. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 75 bp and maybe faster and into 202

DM FX Outlook: USD under pressure as Trump policies disappoint

March 25, 2025 8:51 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: The market had expected the Trump presidency to see further fiscal expansion and consequent tight Fed policy and high US yields. But the combination of less tax cuts than previously expected and more aggressive tariff increases have led to reduced expectations for US grow

SNB: 25 bp Cut Likely To Last

March 20, 2025 9:26 AM UTC

Bottom Line: With inflation forecasts stable, and given a reasonable economic outlook, it would be a good time to pause or stop the SNB easing cycle. However, if the U.S. trade tariffs have a bigger adverse effect than expected or the CHF surges, then the SNB may want the option to ease again later

SNB Preview (Mar 20): A Final Cut?

March 11, 2025 11:45 AM UTC

Having very much delivered relatively rapid easing worth some 125 bp in the last year, we see a further SNB rate cut of 25 bp at this month’s quarterly assessment taking the policy rate to 0.25%, the lowest since Sep 2022, ie when the Board moved away from negative rates.  A return to negative ra

U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors?

February 19, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

·        Tariff reality in the spring and summer will likely be both tariff threats to negotiate trade deals and permanently higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally to raise revenue for the U.S. government – along Peter Navarro guidance to Trump.  The macro effects of this cou

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

DM FX Outlook: USD to edge lower despite high yields

December 20, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

·       Bottom Line: Recent strong US data has bolstered the USD, with the Trump election victory also supportive due to expectations of tax cuts and tariffs which are seen leading to less Fed easing than previously expected. While we still see the USD weakening through 2025 as Fed easing red

Western Europe Outlook: Divergent Policy Thinking

December 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

·       In the UK, perhaps the main story in our outlook is that we retain our below-consensus GDP picture for next year, with growth of 1.0% and with downside risks. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 100 bp and maybe faster and beyond. 
·       As for Sweden, d

Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

SNB Review: Easing Bias Toned Down?

December 12, 2024 9:21 AM UTC

In what seems to be ever-clearer policy front-loading, the SNB cut its policy rate by 50 bp (to 0.5%), thereby accentuating an easing cycle that had delivered three 25 bp moves since March.  Possibly, this larger, but far from unexpected, reduction was driven by a fresh assessment that the inflatio

SNB Preview (Dec 12): How Much Further Easing?

December 3, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

Whatever the SNB does this month is likely to be merely a further staging post in an easing cycle that has to date delivered three 25 bp moves since March, ie taking the policy rate to 1.0%.  More likely the SNB will again cut by 25 bp this month, but amid downside real economy risks and inflation

September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

Western Europe Outlook: Gradualism vs Reality

September 26, 2024 10:45 AM UTC

·       In the UK, while headline GDP numbers look firmer, the real economy backdrop and outlook remains no better than mixed.  This should improve a disinflation process driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q4 and continue doing so through 2025 (we look

SNB Review: More Cuts on the Way

September 26, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Very much as expected, the SNB today repeated the 25 bp policy rate cut that it had made twice since March.  This took the policy rate to 1.0% and reflected an even clearer below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the updated outlook (Figure 1).  This flagged further easing

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else