South Africa MPC Preview: Close Call on May 28

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April due to higher energy and transportation prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely consider hiking the rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the next MPC scheduled on May 28 given plenty of upside risks

Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs

May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2

South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt

May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho

UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?

May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may

ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

UK Labor Market: Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low as Jobs Growth into Sharp Reverse

May 19, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Even more clearly, there are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.8 ppt in y/y terms with the m/m drop the larg

Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April

May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla

Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?

May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC

 In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly.  It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’

U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience

May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p

UK Politics – A Laboured Labour Election Ahead?

May 14, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

It is somewhat ironic that as markets (particularly gilts) fret over a shift to the left causing less fiscal prudency, it is actually the centre of the Labour party that is fermenting the most uncertainty.  (Now Ex) Secretary Streeting has yet to make a formal bid to challenge PM Starmer for the le

CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures

May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the

UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?

May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside.  Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?

Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed

May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold

Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds

May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds. 

U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter

May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.

UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?

May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March.  Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion

May 11, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda

May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl

Eurozone: In Dire Straits?

May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing.  High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not

Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April

May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp

Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds

May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds. 

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism

May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.  Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though

Sweden Riksbank Review: Fresh Tightening Bias But Mildly So?

May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook.  Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been

Straits of Hormuz Scenarios

May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S.  This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027.  The al

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)

May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC

We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i

UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?

May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC

Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months.  This is likely to have been ab

U.S. Labour: In Praise of Older Workers

May 5, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

·       While financial pressures are prompting U.S. workers to delay retirement and work longer, this is not being realized due to deteriorating health/labour market skills mismatches and other issues. More work from older workers is unlikely to be the solution to shrinking net immigration.

Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core

May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin

April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures

May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4.   After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin

Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?

May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC

The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months.  While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook

Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo

ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

U.S. Q1 GDP shows solid underlying momentum and continued inflationary pressure

April 30, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualized is slightly weaker than expected and not an impressive bounce from Q4’s 0.5% which was restrained by a government shutdown. However the detail suggests respectable growth, as do stronger than expected March personal income and spending, and most im

BoE Review: MPC Playing Its Cards Safely (For Now)?

April 30, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC last month and the same decision was both expected and delivered this time around but with only token fresh dissent, with Chief Economist Pill wanting an immediate hike from the current 3.75%.  But splits were more evident in the individual MPC

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time

April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no

FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September

April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We

FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish

April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.

Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside

April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger

April 29, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.

UK Political Risk – Bad Things Come in Threes?

April 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

The biggest set of elections since the 2024 general election takes place on 7 May in the UK.  Already, UK markets are fretting about the possible outcome, in particular that serious electoral damage to the Labour Party currently running the government could make it swing more to left and dilute fis

Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals

April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC

We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. 

Big EM: Diverging Fiscal Trends

April 28, 2026 12:35 PM UTC

·       EM government bond spreads are controlled as 2nd round inflation effects are likely to be less than 2022, due to less buoyant domestic demand/slacker labour markets and less global supply chain pressure ex oil/oil products.  Brazil is expected to cut rates and others will likely not

Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected

April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t

Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets

April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

•    Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing.  This dive

8th Consecutive Cut: CBR Reduced the Rate to 14.5% Despite Risks

April 24, 2026 5:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—the CBR continued its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. CBR maintained a cautious tone on inflation and future pol