FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October

October 7, 2026 6:41 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October

October 7, 2026 6:40 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e

ECB won’t come to France’s rescue

October 7, 2026 1:55 PM UTC

Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t

ECB won’t come to France’s rescue

October 7, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Bottom Line: France’s 10-year government bond spread to Germany widened past the 2012 highs last week prompting market speculation that the ECB could soon deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, TPI is unlikely to be implemented, firstly because the ECB has firmly dismissed t

Mexico Country Risk Rating

October 7, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Mexico remains at a medium-high rating.

DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads

October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·       The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium.  However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move.  Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

BoE patience on inflation outlook will be tested the longer conflict goes on

October 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC

Recent comments by BoE members continue to show a divergence of views between those who prefer a pre-emptive rate hike and those who want to see evidence that the initial oil shock is spreading to the rest of the economy. The three members who voted for a hike last month (Pill, Mann and Green) warn

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3

October 6, 2026 11:43 AM UTC

We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3

October 6, 2026 11:41 AM UTC

We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.

Brazil Country Risk Rating

October 6, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Brazil remains at a medium rating.

French Bonds: Global Spillover or Fiscal Crisis?

October 5, 2026 12:36 PM UTC

Overall, the current French government bond widening could partially reverse short-term on U.S. Treasury yields becoming less worried about Fed tightening and also hopes that the 2027 French government budget plan could actually pass.  Some ECB officials could also note the existence of the Transmi

Russia Country Risk Rating

October 5, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Russia remains at a medium-high rating.

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven

October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC

Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th

India Country Risk Rating

October 2, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in India remains at a medium rating.

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

China Country Risk Rating

October 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in China remains at a medium rating.

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track

September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

Mexico: Stable Rates Diverging From The Fed

September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

·       As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed.  The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will

Mexico: Diverging From The Fed

September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

·       As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed.  The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

China and Brazil Outlook: Geo-Politics and Artificial Intelligence

September 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

·       China’s growth momentum continued to be sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. Growth is however imbalanced with subdued consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we kept our forecast at 4.4% for 2026 and 4

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices

September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

·       EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur

Charting Our Views: Technical Analysis for Q4 2026

September 22, 2026 12:14 PM UTC

Our latest quarterly Technical Analysis views on Bonds, Equities, Commodities and FX is now available.  

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek