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October 02, 2026
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
October 01, 2026
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O
September 30, 2026
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
September 29, 2026
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?
September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC
Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back
EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?
September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC
Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back
The 18yr Housing Cycle: Bent, Broken, or Still on Track
September 29, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
* Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue?
* Performances vary globally. Resilient cash prices disguise a rea
September 28, 2026
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
September 25, 2026
SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike
September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC
Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see
SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike
September 25, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see
Mexico: Stable Rates Diverging From The Fed
September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
· As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed. The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will
Mexico: Diverging From The Fed
September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
· As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed. The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will
September 24, 2026
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
Riksbank: December Hike
September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
· The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important. It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect. This would also avoid too much Swedi
Riksbank: December Hike
September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
· The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important. It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect. This would also avoid too much Swedi
September 23, 2026
China and Brazil Outlook: Geo-Politics and Artificial Intelligence
September 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
· China’s growth momentum continued to be sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. Growth is however imbalanced with subdued consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we kept our forecast at 4.4% for 2026 and 4
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
September 22, 2026
DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices
September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC
· EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur
September 21, 2026
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek
BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0
September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
· Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West. The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. Regional ag
September 18, 2026
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
September 17, 2026
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
Brazil: 25bps Cut and No Pause Signaled
September 17, 2026 6:43 AM UTC
• Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 13.75%, with the statement acknowledging slowing economic momentum and leaving the door open to a November cut. With still high real policy rates, plus a well underpinned Brazilian Real (BRL), we look for two 25bps cut in Q4 to 13.25% end 2026. A pause
September 16, 2026
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha
U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored
September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha
EM Money Supply: Trends Diverge from Policy Rates
September 16, 2026 11:15 AM UTC
· M2 growth in China remains weak (pre 2015 the trend had been double digit), despite the low level of nominal and real policy rates. This reflects credit demand and supply problems. M2 growth will likely remain restrained by Chinese standards and act as a drag of nominal and real GDP
UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected
September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in
UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected
September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in
September 15, 2026
Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff
September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects. Breakeven inflation expectatio