U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

United Arab Emirates Country Risk Rating

July 28, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in the United Arab Emirates remains at a medium-low rating.

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Rating

July 27, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Saudia Arabia remains at a medium rating.

Ghana Country Risk Rating

July 24, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Yemen remains at a medium rating.

Yemen Country Risk Rating

July 23, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Yemen remains at a very high rating.

Morocco Country Risk Rating

July 22, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Morocco remains at a medium rating.

Libya Country Risk Rating

July 21, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Libya remains at a very high rating.

Kuwait Country Risk Rating

July 20, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Kuwait remains at a medium rating.

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

ECB: Bark No Bite

July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher.  We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Country Risk Rating

July 14, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. remains at a very high rating.

Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields

July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation).  10yr nominal yields could

Ecuador Country Risk Rating

July 10, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Ecuador remains at a medium-high rating.

Colombia Country Risk Rating

July 9, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Colombia remains at a medium rating.

RBNZ Review: 25bps Hike But Unknown Next

July 8, 2026 4:55 AM UTC

RBNZ hike rate by 25bps to 2.5% unanimously

Zambia Country Risk Rating

July 7, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Zambia remains at a medium rating.

Australia Outlook: Steady

July 6, 2026 2:45 AM UTC

Australian CPI showed signs of moderation in recent read. It should be enough to persuade the RBA their previous hike to be enough.

EM Government Debt Sinners and Saints

July 3, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

·       Overall, the clearest EM fiscal sinner is Brazil, given its tax revenue/GDP ratio is already very high and requires politically sensitive expenditure cuts after the October election to increase the primary surplus to stabilize the government debt/GDP trajectory and get real bond yield

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely

June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC

After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a  previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services less subdued

June 23, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

June’s preliminary S and P PMIs ae both improved, manufacturing impressively so at 55.7 from 55.1. Services are still subdued but at 51.3 from 50.7 are at their highest since February.

Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?

June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC

·       Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to

Brazil: Slowing Pace of Cuts and BRL Strength

June 19, 2026 6:55 AM UTC

·       Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 14.25%, but received critiques from the market by raising end 2027 CPI inflation from 3.5% to 3.7% and talking about Q1 2028 in the relevant policy horizon. We feel that BCB still wants to leave the door open to further cuts in 2026, given how restrict

SNB: Holding Steady on Rates

June 18, 2026 7:54 AM UTC

The June quarterly assessment saw little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation (Figure 1), with the tone of the economic outlook remained guarded due to concerns over the Iran war on the global economy (forecasts though look to have been completed before the U.S. Iran deal).   With

BOJ: QT still 5-6% of GDP until 2030 at least!

June 17, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Though the BOJ will maintain bond buying at Yen2trn pm from April 2027, huge redemptions means that net QT will be Yen45trn April 27-March 28 i.e. around 6.5% of GDP after QT at 6% of GDP in 2026.  Then JGB net reduction of Yen40trn (6% of GDP) FY 29 and Yen35trn (5.5% of GDP).  Wit

BoJ Review: One Percent

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting