Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive

March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou

UK GDP Preview (Mar 13): Were Things Getting Better?

March 4, 2026 11:11 AM UTC

Belatedly, some good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year.  Even more encouragingly, it may very well enjoy a further rise in the looming January data, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years.  But as is famil

EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return

March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%

Iran: What Length For War?

March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

·       If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism.  If the war is more prolonged (ie months)  then oil/gas supplies could be sque

Canada Q4 GDP slips despite strong support from government, but some positive signals

February 27, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.6% annualized Q4 GDP decline was slightly weaker than expected and further below a flat BoC projection, and came despite quite strong support from government. Q3 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% but this was more than outweighed by an upward revision to Q2 to -0.9% from -1.8%. 

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive

February 26, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 3): ECB Too Focused on Services Inflation as Goods May Soon Take Core Below Target

February 25, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is possible that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next.  Indeed, we see the headline rate edging up to 1.8% in the February flash mainly due to ener

Iran: Limited U.S. Attack?

February 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

 ·       Iran authorities appear reluctant to meet the Trump administration’s demand to stop nuclear fuel production for potential weapons.  This increases the odds of a limited attack by the U.S. on Iran to 30-40% (Figure 1), which could occur as soon as this weekend.  The most likely I

GBP: Foreign Investor Flows

February 23, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Inbound inflows into the UK have been solid in the last few years attracted by yield pick-up and fiscal consolidation for gilts and cheap comparable valuations in UK equities. UK BOP data suggests something would have to go really wrong to stop inbound portfolio flows e.g. UK recessio

Switzerland: An Alternative Insight into Current Franc Strength!

February 20, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

The increasing strength in the Swiss France is causing reverberations.  More a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness than that of the euro, the nominal trade weighted Franc is hitting new highs (Figure 1).  But while this strength in impairing competitiveness – vital to an economy where exports acc

FOMC Minutes: Shows Splits, But Rate Cuts Should Still Arrive

February 19, 2026 9:24 AM UTC

·       The January FOMC minutes show a split Fed, with some sounding mildly hawkish.  However, the district Fed presidents are on the mildly hawkish side, but most are non-voters and we feel that the FOMC voting consensus is more neutral.  Additionally, we feel that Fed is too upbeat on th

UK CPI Review: Fresh and Marked Fall Resumes as Core Slips to Cycle-Low?

February 18, 2026 10:03 AM UTC

Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, the clear fall in the headline rate and further looser labor market messages still point to a BoE rate cut next month, not least given the likely return to the 2% target by April. These projected falls started with these Ja

UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing on Wages

February 17, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh and deep falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1).

From Trade War to Trade Truce: Washington and Delhi Recalibrate

February 16, 2026 7:50 AM UTC

The US–India interim trade pact lowers tariffs after a bruising 2025 dispute, offering relief to Indian exporters while committing New Delhi to expanded market access for American goods. Washington is presenting the deal, including India’s stated intent to import up to USD 500bn in US energy and

Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks

February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the

UK GDP Review: Underlying Economy Fragility Does Continue

February 12, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

First the good news; the UK economy grew for a second successive month in December, something not seen for almost a year.  But as is familiar with recent UK real economy data, there is a negative flip side with the 0.1 m/m December advance negated by downward revisions to previous figures (November

UK Gilt Vigilantes and Politics

February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

•    The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor.  Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre

U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum

February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati

India’s Union FY27 Budget: A Pragmatic Blueprint That Prioritises Stability over Stimulus

February 9, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

India’s 2026–27 Union Budget opts for prudence over populism, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP and boosting capital expenditure by 11.5%. The government shifts focus to services-led job creation, defence modernisation, and water infrastructure while trimming subsidies, while tax tweaks

RBI Holds Rates Steady as Growth Proves Durable

February 6, 2026 10:52 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India has opted for composure holding rates at 5.25% as it weighs past easing, a benign inflation profile, and the rupee’s fragility in volatile global conditions. This is a pause with options, not a pivot. 

BOE March Cut and Then More

February 5, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

·       Six members of the MPC appear worried about the disinflationary impact from a weak economy and four of whom actually voted for a 25bps cut at the February meeting.  BOE Bailey and Mann, looking at the MPC minutes, are very close to voting for a rate cut, which suggests high confidenc

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Less Resilient as Core Hits Cycle-Low

February 4, 2026 11:19 AM UTC

Having been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% until November but after a fall to 1.9% in December headline HICP inflation dropped to 1.7% in the flash January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome.  The drop came in spite of higher food inflation

Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January

February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom line:  Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec

EZ HICP Preview (Feb 4): Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further

February 2, 2026 12:07 PM UTC

HICP inflation had been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it seemingly stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, only to be revised down a further notch to 1.9% in the final HICP figu

ECB Preview: After GDP and Before Feb Meeting

January 30, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

·       Most on the ECB council appear to be comfortable with steady policy in H1 2026, after a cumulative 200bps of cuts.  This will likely be the overall message from the February 5 ECB meeting. This will paper over differences for 2027 among ECB council members. However, we agree with the

Brazil: March 50bps Cut?

January 29, 2026 7:22 AM UTC

Though the BCB remain focused on getting inflation converging towards the centre of the inflation target range at 3%, the January statement does suggest that an easing move will be delivered at the March meeting. With headline inflation falling, the real interest rate is going up and policy is becom

Bank of Canada - Rate Level Still Appropriate But Uncertainty Heightened

January 28, 2026 4:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and continues to see the current policy rate as appropriate, Governor Macklem stating updated economic forecasts have not changed significantly since October. However in highlighting heightened uncertainty the statement appears to leave ri

India–EU Tie-Up Redraws Trade Lines

January 27, 2026 5:40 AM UTC

The India–EU FTA is more than a trade deal, it is a strategic alignment, forged in an era of global fragmentation. It offers India stable access to a wealthy, rules-based market, while providing Europe a direct foothold in Asia’s growth engine. In a world of transactional superpowers, it appears

Rate Hold Masks Deeper Questions on BI’s Policy Independence

January 26, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held rates in November as expected, prioritising rupiah and inflation stability over premature easing. While a December cut remains likely—especially if the Fed turns dovish—BI has made clear it will move only under the right conditions.

BoJ Review: Inflation Forecast Revised Higher

January 23, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.75% in the January meeting 

Due to Risks, CBRT Continued Easing Cycle with 100 Bps Cut on January 22

January 22, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate to 37% during the MPC meeting on January 22, indicating a cautious progress since a slower rate cut than December. With the bank committed to disinflation towards its 5% target, CBRT will likely proceed carefully on

South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December

January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe

Bank of Canada Preview for January 28: Rate level still appropriate but uncertainty high

January 20, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% on January 28 and reiterate that rates are at about the right level if the economy evolves as expected, while adding that uncertainty remains elevated. We expect that the next BoC move will be a modest tightening, but this will

Japan: A Bet To Retake The House

January 19, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Japan PM Takaichi making a bet to retake the lower house on rising rating

Rupee Volatility Tests RBI, But Buffers Remain Strong

January 16, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

India’s forex reserves are under pressure from capital outflows and rupee weakness, but the system remains resilient. The RBI has room to manage volatility, backed by strong reserve buffers. 

South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December

January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs

U.S. Retail Sales and PPI over October and November not far from expectations

January 14, 2026 2:15 PM UTC

November retail sales with a rise of 0.6% are marginally stronger than expected but the data is close to expectations net of modest negative back month revisions. PPI has been released for both October and November, also net in line with expectations, with October on the firm side in the core rate f

U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4

January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s

Preview: Due January 13 - U.S. December CPI - Soft November probably understates true picture

January 12, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

We expect gains of 0.3% in both December overall and ex food and energy CPI, with the gains being close to 0.3% even before rounding. There is extra uncertainty over this release as it is unclear whether the surprisingly soft data for November, after a missing October, represented a slowing in trend

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December

January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December. 

UK GDP Preview (Jan 15): Underlying and Headline Economy Fragility Continues?

January 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

As we have underlined, UK GDP has hardly moved since March and this became even clearer with the last (October) GDP release, the question being whether weakness is getting more discernible and significant.  Indeed, it has fallen in three of the last four months of data (Figure 1) and where we see n

German HICP Review: Headline and Core Down Afresh

January 6, 2026 4:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process resumed with a bang as December saw a larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation.  Indeed, the headline HICP fell 0.6 ppt to a five-month low of 2.0%.  This was largely food and energy driven but still with some fall in core at least according to

Turkiye Closes the Year with Inflation Easing to 30.9% y/y in December

January 5, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on January 5, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 30.9% y/y in December backed by the lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening. Food, housing and education drove the inflation in December as education prices recorde

Bessent: New Fed Inflation Range and Dropping Dots?

January 2, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent over the Christmas period suggested that the Fed should shift to targeting an inflation range and drop the quarterly dots.  What impact would this have? Such a change would give the Fed more flexibility on the margin, but not significant.  This could make communicat

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

Mexico: 25bps Cut and Now Pause

December 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.0% as expected with a downward revision to 0.3% for 2025 GDP growth. Below trend GDP is forecast in 2026 and we see this prompting further easing in March and June 2026 by 25bps each, but MXN weakness restraining Banxico pace.  We then see Banxico going on hold for the rem

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

UK CPI Review: Down More Than Expected from Likely Peak?

December 17, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

A clear downside surprise adds to the wealth of data suggesting a reining of price and cost pressures.  This November result makes it more likely that the September CPI outcome will prove to be the CPI inflation peak.  Indeed, although October figure fell a little less than the consensus by 0.2 pp