BoE Review: Fiscal Elephant in the Room Ignored – For Now!

November 6, 2025 1:47 PM UTC

A tight vote was always likely for the November MPC verdict, but the 5:4 split was closer than expected, but almost a repeat of the August decision when rates were cut to the current 4%.  What seems clear is that the effective swing voter was Governor Bailey but who coloured his decision with a cle

Sweden Riksbank Review: Board Sticks to it Plans

November 5, 2025 9:44 AM UTC

As we anticipated in our preview, the Riksbank Board is pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming (bot

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless

November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone.  As a result, we see September G

EZ HICP Review: Services Inflation Problematic?

October 31, 2025 10:39 AM UTC

With what were previously unfavourable energy-related base effects reversing, EZ inflation edged down 0.1 ppt to 2.1% in October, largely in line with consensus thinking, but with the main core rate stable at 2.4%.  The latter reflected a slight pick-up in services (up 0.2 ppt to a six-mth high of

Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement

October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta

Bank of Canada - Hawkish Ease with Current Rate Level Seen as Appropriate

October 29, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish easing, cutting rates for the second straight meeting by 25bps, to 2.25%, but stating that if inflation and activity evolve in line with its projection, the current rate is seen as about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy th

UK Food Inflation; Not Just a Domestic Issue, Despite Industry Claims

October 28, 2025 8:45 AM UTC

Food price inflation is becoming an increasing issue for both policy makers and households as well as companies that are generating and selling the produce. Particularly in the UK, rising food price inflation is helping shore up well-above target CPI inflation and thereby deterring the BoE from what

ECB Monetary Worries Emerging as Corporate Credit Dynamics Weaken More Clearly

October 27, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

As a foretaste of the Bank Lending Survey BLS) due tomorrow, the ECB released two associated pieces of data today, both corroborating and continuing an ever worrying pattern, namely weakness in corporate credit. The data showed growth in later has fallen to its lowest in almost two years (Figure 1).

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

Canada August retail sales - A positive month in a choppy trend

October 23, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales with a 1.0% August increase are spot on the preliminary estimate, though the gain is more dependent on autos than consensus estimates, with ex auto sales up by a slightly less strong 0.7%. The preliminary estimate for September is for a 0.7% decline. With July having fallen by

EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): No Halloween Horror from HICP Update

October 23, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Mainly due to unfavourable base effects, EZ inflation has edged up in the last few months, but we think that this is temporary and that a fresh fall, possible to below the 2% target may occur in the October flash numbers – with a formal forecast of a 0.3 ppt drop to 1.9% and the core falling almos

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Oct 30): Resilience in the Dock?

October 22, 2025 9:11 AM UTC

As we highlighted repeatedly of late, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. But we think this may shift as the ECB

Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December

October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September

Japan: Storm Calms or Reaches the eye?

October 20, 2025 2:48 AM UTC

The LDP and Japan Innovation Party have reached a broad agreement to form a coalition government

Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations

October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p

UK GDP Review: Moving Sideways – At Best

October 16, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

Although the revisions up to July GDP data now confirm a small m/m fall for that month), this was unwound in the August numbers with a 0.1% rise (Figure 1). This put the less volatile three-month rate at 0.3% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer zer

UK Labor Market: Continued Private Sector Job Losses Weighing More Clearly on Wages

October 14, 2025 9:22 AM UTC

There may be signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs less clearly, if not actually indications that the more authoritative payrolls have stopped falling, albeit this largely due to increasing jobs within the health sector.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a

Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October

October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi

ECB Council Meeting Account Review: Complacency Rules the Day as Financial Conditions Tighten!

October 9, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

Unsurprisingly there was little in the account of the ECB Council Meeting of 10-11 September to suggest any rush to change policy with it clear that members on both sides of the hawks vs doves debate wanted more data amid what was considered to be great uncertainty.  Thus, the ECB offered little in

RBNZ Review: More Dovish Surprise

October 8, 2025 5:01 AM UTC

RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50bp to 2.5% 
Forward guidance dovish pointing towards more potential cut

UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness

October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a

France:  Prime Minister – Another One Bites the Dust

October 6, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Either side of the English Channel, politicians are competing to see whether France or the UK can provide a prime minister with the shortest time in power.  In the UK that was Liz Truss whose 49 days at the helm of the government in 2022 has now been surpassed by French PM Lecornu who has resigned

15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September

October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?

September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff

RBI Likely to Hold Rates, Watchful of Tariffs and Festive Demand

September 29, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% in its October review, pausing after three consecutive cuts earlier this year. With inflation undershooting and GST rationalisation set to push CPI lower, policymakers see little need for immediate action. The central bank will instead wait

Banxico Review: Slower Pace for 25bps Cuts

September 26, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.5%. However, Banxico pushed up the near term inflation forecasts, which could mean that the November 6 meeting does not see a rate cut but rather Banxico waits until the December 18 meeting.  This is our view and we look for 25bps to 7.25%.  We then see two further 25bps

SNB Review: Staying at Zero – For Some Time?

September 25, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

Very much as expected, both in deed and word, the SNB kept the policy rate at zero this month having cut by 25 bp back in June in June. Indeed, markets priced out what was previously seen as a good chance of rates turning negative, even against a backdrop of the punitive tariff scheme the Swiss econ

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August

September 24, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while average hourly earnings maintai

Sweden Riksbank Review: Riksbank Delivers Final Rate Cut?

September 23, 2025 8:16 AM UTC

Although aware of the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises as well as what now looks to be a clear fiscal loosening, the Riksbank delivered the 25 bp final rate cut we expected.  The Board was very clear that no further easing

Eurozone Outlook: Resilience or Irrelevance?

September 22, 2025 9:49 AM UTC

··       Yet again, and amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the ec

Bank of Canada - Clear consensus to ease, we expect two further 25bps moves

September 17, 2025 3:46 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s decision to ease today for the first time since March, by 25bps to 2.50% was as the market expected.  We expect two further easings from the BoC, in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2025, which would take the rate to 2.0%, which is likely to prove the floor.  

U.S. August Retail Sales - Still Resilient

September 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

August retail sales with a 0.6% increase, with the ex-auto and ex auto and gasoline gains both at 0.7%, are stronger than expected and suggest continued consumer resilience despite a slowing in employment growth. The rise modestly exceeds a 0.5% rise in CPI commodity prices in August.

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 23): Riksbank To Deliver Final Rate Cut?

September 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Although noting the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises, we adhere to our view that a further but final rate cut is looming and probably at the Sep 23 verdict.  Indeed, we were disappointed that the Riksbank did not deliver a

UK GDP Review: Conflicting Signs

September 12, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  The three-month rate slowed a notch to 0.2% but we think this overstates what is very feeble momentum, which may actually be nearer

U.S. August CPI, Weekly Initial Claims - Risks on both sides of Fed mandate but possible seasonal adjustment issues for Claims

September 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is firmer than expected overall at 0.4% and while the core rate was as expected at 0.3% its rise before rounding at 0.346% is uncomfortably high emphasizing the upside risks to the Fed’s inflation mandate. Initial claims at 263k from 236k however point to downside risks to the Fed emplo

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

September 10, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

France: Kicking the Fiscal Can (Again)

September 9, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

That France has seen the departure of yet another prime minister is no surprise, hence why financial markets took the confidence vote in its stride.  Admittedly, French sovereign spreads and yields have risen in the last month, but even so the actual level of bond yields remains well below that of

Expecting a Negative Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision

September 8, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

Tuesday sees the release of the preliminary Labor Dep’t estimate for the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark, with expectations for a significant negative, possibly as large as the -818k preliminary estimate for the March 2024 benchmark delivered a year ago. The eventual revision to March 2024 p

Canada August Employment - With Q3 looking weak, we now expect the BoC to ease in September

September 5, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 65.5k decline with unemployment up to 7.1% from 6.9% is much weaker than expected. While the detail is a little less weak than the headlines suggest, and the data has been volatile recently, we are revising our Bank of Canada call, and now expect a 25bps ea

Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary

September 4, 2025 2:45 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st

ECB Council Meeting Preview (Sep 11): No Change and Little Guidance

September 3, 2025 9:20 AM UTC

A second successive stable policy decision is very likely at next week’s ECB Council meeting resulting in the first consecutive pause in the current easing cycle, with the discount rate left at 2.0%.  We see the ECB offering little in terms of policy guidance; after all, in July the Council sugge

India GDP Review: Public Spending and Services Lift India’s Growth to Five-Quarter High

September 2, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.8% y/y in Q1 FY25, beating expectations. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment remained subdued. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-based demand and improving global co

Hitting Beyond Expectations thanks to Construction Activities: Turkiye’s GDP Growth Rebounded Strong in Q2

September 1, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on September 1, Turkish economy increased by a strong 4.8% YoY despite political turbulence after arrest of Istanbul mayor and opposition’s presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu in Q2, prolonged monetary tightening eff