China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses

September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

NBIM’s bond allocation rethink

September 8, 2026 7:30 AM UTC

* Proposal would imply $80bn~ Treasury sell, although little net USD change
* JGBs see marked pick up, presented as method change more than value, but…
* Several peers already follow broader bond mix. Is NBIM just ‘catch up’ or does to speak to wider concerns and incentives?

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July

September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call

September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

September 3, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

Money supply - Fed Invites an Awkward Ex Back into its Life

September 3, 2026 10:52 AM UTC

* Following the ‘Easter egg’ M2 reference, Warsh has made clear that ‘money matters’
* But while M2 was name-checked and described as benign, broader measures have been running strongly, well above the referenced 2010 norms
* M4 Divisia gives one of the better currently available measures, con

Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Bank of Canada - Now expecting a December tightening

September 2, 2026 3:50 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and noted risks on both sides, though the press conference made it clear that inflationary risks led by the Middle East are outweighing those on growth generated by recent US tariffs. We now expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25bp

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

August 31, 2026 1:55 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep

August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio

U.S. July and revised Q2 Core PCE Prices on the firm side, Income and Spending also exceed expectations

August 26, 2026 1:37 PM UTC

While July’s core PCE price index came in at 0.2% as expected, before rounding the rise was 0.246%. Q2’s core PCE price index was revised up to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, making the data a modest disappointment, which will sustain Fed inflationary worries, though is not quite enough to make a Se

Bessent’s Buybacks - bluster, bazooka or brittle bet?

August 25, 2026 3:57 PM UTC

* Bessent’s buybacks – bazooka or peashooter? It depends on whether it’s a slippery slope. On current proposed scale, possibly only absorbs around 10% or so of gross long end Treasury issuance on duration basis
* Mooted TGA use is not a free $1trn money pot, though it could provide some short-t

Escalation Risk in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute

August 24, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

The immediate economic impact of the collapse of the US-Canada trade talks is likely to be modest, but not insignificant in the case of Canada.  Where things move from here is uncertain, with Canadian retaliation due to be implemented on September 8, and risk of further mutual escalations after tha

U.S. August S&P PMIs - Manufacturing loses momentum, Services surprisingly strong

August 21, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

August’s preliminary S and P PMIs show a contrast between an unexpected slowing in manufacturing, to 53.2 from 53.9, but surprising strength in services is probably more significant, with a rise to 56.8 from 54.6. The composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5.

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

United Arab Emirates Country Risk Rating

July 28, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in the United Arab Emirates remains at a medium-low rating.

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Rating

July 27, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Saudia Arabia remains at a medium rating.

Ghana Country Risk Rating

July 24, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Yemen remains at a medium rating.

Yemen Country Risk Rating

July 23, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Yemen remains at a very high rating.

Morocco Country Risk Rating

July 22, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Morocco remains at a medium rating.

Libya Country Risk Rating

July 21, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Libya remains at a very high rating.

Kuwait Country Risk Rating

July 20, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Kuwait remains at a medium rating.

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

ECB: Bark No Bite

July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher.  We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Country Risk Rating

July 14, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. remains at a very high rating.

Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields

July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation).  10yr nominal yields could