GBP/USD-Commentary

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July 11, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on CPI, more downside seen
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July 11, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Weaker US CPI puts the USD at risk across the board. JPY has the most upside potential longer term, but AUD and GBP may be the best short term performers.

July 05, 2024

GBP flows: Little impact from election result
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July 5, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

GBP unchanged as Labour wins UK election

GBP flows: Little changed after election exit polls
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July 5, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

Labor wins and conservative likely having fewest seats since founded

June 25, 2024

USD flows: Watching U.S. Tech
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June 25, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

Some traders are watching the sharp pullback in Nvidia share price in the last few sessions. 

June 21, 2024

GBP flows: GBP little changed after retail sales
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June 21, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

EUR/GBP initally saw a small dip but the recovery in sales in May is of limited significance.

June 07, 2024

GBP flows: BOE June 20 Rate Cut Risks Underestimated
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June 7, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

GBP main event next week will be the monthly GDP and average earnings expectations. 

May 24, 2024

GBP flows: GBP briefly dips on weaker retail sales
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May 24, 2024 6:28 AM UTC

Weaker than expected April retail sales are likely erratic and will have little sustained impact on GBP

May 23, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slips wih UK PMI
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May 23, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

UK composite and services PMI weaker, manufacturing better, GBP lower.

May 22, 2024

GBP flows: GBP up as CPI falls less than expected
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May 22, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

EUR/GBP looks likely to test 0.85 as UK services inflation remains stubbornly high

May 17, 2024

JPY, GBP flows: JPY soft, GBP awaits Mann speech
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May 17, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY higher after Ueda and BoJ operations discourage tightening expectations. BoE hawk Mann has more power to weaken than strengthen GBP

May 10, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after weak UoM confidence
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May 10, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

University of Michigan confidence data shows sharp decline - USD may come under more pressure

GBP flows: GBP recovers on stronger GDP
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May 10, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

UK GDP rises a better than expected 0.6% in Q1, but breakdown looks suspicious. Nevertheless, GBP likely to hold firm short term

May 09, 2024

GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut
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May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

April 25, 2024

GBP flows: GBP benefiting from risk positive tone
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April 25, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP rising this morning in general risk positive market. BHP-Anglo takeover deal unlikely to be relevant

April 23, 2024

GBP flows: GBP up after Pill comments, but...
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April 23, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

Pill comments taken as hawkish, but don't rule out June rate cut

GBP flows: GBP up on stronger composite PMI
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April 23, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Stronger services PMIs boosts GBP, more BoE commentary awaited

March 28, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: Weak German retail data puts some downward pressure on EUR
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March 28, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

German retail sales fall again, underlining European growth underperformance.

March 22, 2024

GBP flows: GBP stays soft after retail sales data
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March 22, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

GBP stays on the back foot after retail sales data shows little change in underlying trends. 

March 21, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly softer after UK MPC leaves rates on hold
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March 21, 2024 12:23 PM UTC

GBP has weakened modestly as BoE leaves rates unchanged with an 8-1 vote. Two hawks from the February meeting now voting for no change

March 20, 2024

GBP flows: GBP little changed after CPI
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March 20, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

UK February CPI slightly softer than expected, but still strong services inflation makes it unliekly BoE hawks will turn dovish

March 13, 2024

GBP flows: GBP steady after GDP but risks on the downside
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March 13, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

GBP not much changed after GDP comes in in line with consensus, but underlying picture remains weak

March 12, 2024

GBP flows: GBP softer after Labour market data
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March 12, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

GBP softer after earnings data shows weakness and unemployment rises. Scope above 0.8550 in EUR/GBP

February 20, 2024

GBP flows: GBP downside risks on BoE testimony
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February 20, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

BoE testimony may well be more dovish in view of recent developments, suggesting GBP downside risks

February 16, 2024

GBP flows: GBP rallies modestly as retail sales bounce
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February 16, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

January retail sales reversed the December decline, but the data tells us little and GBP still looks biased lower after this week's data

February 15, 2024

GBP flows: GBP downside risks after weak GDP
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February 15, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Revisions lead to lager than expected 0.3% decline in UK Q4 GDP, suggesting downside risks for GBP

February 14, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly lower after softer CPI
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February 14, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

UK January CPI slightly softer than expected, but y/y unchanged from December and data unlikely to change BoE stance

February 13, 2024

USD flows: USD up strongly on higher than expected CPI
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February 13, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

Stronger than expected US CPI pushed the USD higher across the board. 

GBP flows: GBP up on slightly stronger labour market data
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February 13, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Earnnigs growth slightly on the strong side and unemployment rate diown, but GBP upside still quite limited

January 24, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: EUR and particularly GBP vulnerable to PMIs
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January 24, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

EUR PMIs expected to recover slightly, but risk of little change, while UK outperformance in recent months may be partly reversed

December 28, 2023

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF flows: USD/CHF Leads the Europeans
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December 28, 2023 8:19 AM UTC

European trading has seen a soft start for the USD, as sentiment and end of year flows keep the USD on the defensive.  While the main short-term focus is the Asia surge in the JPY, the USD also remains soft against European majors.  Once again USDCHF is moving ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with EURC

December 27, 2023

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD flows: NY USD Decline
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December 27, 2023 4:55 PM UTC

The USD has lost ground in North American trading against most currencies.  The move was flow and sentiment driven rather than new news, with EUR and GBP/NOK and SEK gaining a similar percentage and AUD and JPY somewhat less.  However, traders indicate that the difference is not major and the key

December 21, 2023

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Sentiment Remain GBP Negative
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December 21, 2023 8:50 AM UTC

GBP has stabilised against the EUR, but the tone remains mild negative with Wednesday’a much weaker than expected UK CPI data having prompted the money market to price in close to six 25bps rate cuts in 2024.  Traders feel that GBP can drift out versus EUR, though some also note Thursday comments

December 20, 2023

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: CPI Trigger BOE Spring Rate Cut Hopes
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December 20, 2023 7:17 AM UTC

GBP has fallen after the much lower than expected UK CPI figure, with the ONS indicating that it was driven by eight sub categories.  The sharp decline in core CPI from 5.7% to 5.1%, will provide comfort in itself to the BOE but will also raise questions whether UK inflation is slowing more quickly

December 15, 2023

EUR/GBP flows: GBP up as UK PMIs continue to outperform
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December 15, 2023 9:57 AM UTC

Another strong UK PMI in contrast to the weaker reading in the Eurozone. We don’t have a huge amount of trust in the composite PMIs as a growth indicator, not least because they exclude retail and construction, which are both weak and being significantly affected by tight monetary policy. But the

EUR/USD flows: EUR slips on soft PMIs
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December 15, 2023 9:17 AM UTC

Weak PMIs from the Eurozone have knocked EUR/USD lower, undermining the credibility of yesterday’s attempt at hawkishness form Lagarde. While EUR yields remain slightly above the levels seen before the ECB, the market hasn’t really bought the view of an extended plateau to rates, and is still pr

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Focus on PMIs after hawkish European central bank statements
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December 15, 2023 7:59 AM UTC

A relatively quiet overnight session sees most of the majors return to Europe little changed from Thursday closing levels. The clearly hawkish tone from the ECB and the BoE has given European currencies a boost, and the bounce is likely to be sustained as long as risk appetite remains positive. The

December 14, 2023

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: GBP gains as BoE remains relatively hawkish
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December 14, 2023 12:14 PM UTC

The Bank of England have left rates unchanged, but the decision was only carried 6-3 once again, with the three hawks continuing to vote for a rate hike. This has pulled GBP higher in response, with EUR/GBP dropping around 20 pips, as UK 2 year yields have moved around 5 pips higher. This only parti

December 13, 2023

EUR/GBP flows: GBP down on weak UK GDP but can fall further
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December 13, 2023 7:29 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected UK GDP in October has sent GBP lower, although the initial reaction has been quite modest. EUR/GBP has popped above 0.86, but we suspect there are more gains to come as the 0.3% decline in GDP is likely to impact expectations of Q4 GDP as a whole and convince at least one o

December 12, 2023

EUR/GBP flows: GBP edges lower after soft labour market data
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December 12, 2023 7:36 AM UTC

The UK labour market data is modestly on the weak side of expectations. Average earnings growth was below expectations both excluding and particularly including bonuses. The claimant count rose again, and the more up to date HMRC data showed a decline in employment and a further decline in pay growt