GBP/USD-Commentary

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February 19, 2025

GBP flows: GBP fails to sustain gains on stronger CPI
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February 19, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

GBP initially gains on stronger CPI, but fails to sustain rise. GBP supported by yield spreads, but remains expensive and upside progress likely to be tough.

February 13, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after GDP, but...
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February 13, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

UK Q4 GDP rises due to services and inventories but detail unimpressive.  GBP gains modestly but upside limited

February 11, 2025

GBP flows: Little impact from Mann but GBP risks on the downside
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February 11, 2025 9:28 AM UTC

Mann's comments suggest she could remain a dove near term. GBP risks on the downside unless we see EU targeted tariffs 

February 07, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: Awaiting US jobs data
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February 7, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

German production and trade data has little impact. JPY stays firm, AUD supported by better risk tone

February 06, 2025

GBP flows: GBP softer after BoE cuts rates
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February 6, 2025 12:19 PM UTC

EUR/GBP rises as UK yields fall following the BoE decision to cut rates, with two votes for a 50bp cut providing a mild dovish signal

January 24, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP rallies on PMIs, general risk positive tone
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January 24, 2025 10:18 AM UTC

GBP recovers as UK PMIs match EUR rise. Global risk positive tone persists helped by PMIs and Trump's less pro-tariff comments overnight

January 21, 2025

GBP flows: GBP steady after UK labour market data
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January 21, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

UK labour market data much as expected. GBP steady but risks still to the GBP downside

January 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slumps on report tariffs to be delayed
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January 20, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

The WSJ reports that Trump won't immediately introduce tariffs, triggering a 1% USD decline

USD flows: Quiet market but focus on Trump
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January 20, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

USD marginally softer against the riskier currencies on hopes of moderation on tariffs

January 17, 2025

USD flows: USD steady after strong housing starts
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January 17, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Little change in the USD after strong housing starts

January 16, 2025

USD flows: USD not much changed after data, but Philly Fed strong
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January 16, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

USD marginally softer after the data, but Philly Fed suggests scope for recovery

GBP flows: GBP slightly lower on weaker GDP
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January 16, 2025 7:41 AM UTC

EUR/GBP edges up as GDP data disappoints. Still scope for further GBP losses

January 15, 2025

USD flows: USD slips on marginally softer CPI
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January 15, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

US CPI only very marginally below consensus, but USD was looking overstretched so some further downside seen

GBP flows: GBP slightly weaker after softer CPI
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January 15, 2025 7:26 AM UTC

UK December CPI comes in softer than expected and increases the chance of BoE easing, suggesting further downside risks for GBP

January 14, 2025

USD flows: USD weaker on soft PPI
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January 14, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

Softer than expected PPI suggests USD downside risks, especially against the riskier currencies

EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: General USD correction, AUD favoured
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January 14, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

USD corrects lower as equities rally

January 09, 2025

GBP flows: GBP starting soft
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January 9, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

GBP under pressure on worries over weak growth and fiscal position, although rising bund yields have also contributed

December 31, 2024

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD bulls into 2025
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December 31, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

USD is trading sideways in holiday thinned European trading.

December 30, 2024

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD drifts in Europe
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December 30, 2024 12:17 PM UTC

The USD has drifted lower in European trading, with thin conditions and year end flows rather than fundamentals being the driving force. 

December 23, 2024

EUR/GBP Flows: BOE Rate Cuts
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December 23, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

 GBP heads into Christmas well underpinned versus the EUR, amid money market expectations that the BOE will only cut by two 25bps steps in 2025 (first one full priced for May!) versus four from the ECB.

December 18, 2024

GBP, AUD flows: GBP slightly softer after CPI, AUD surprisingly weak
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December 18, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

GBP edges lower after CPI. AUD/USD hits new low for the year

December 17, 2024

GBP flows: GBP up on strong earnings data
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December 17, 2024 7:35 AM UTC

EUR/GBP dips further below 0.83 as average earnings growth picks up

November 22, 2024

GBP, EUR, USD flows: EUR falls sharply on PMIs
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November 22, 2024 9:43 AM UTC

EUR/USD drop sharply as PMIs fall much moe than expected. 

GBP, EUR, USD flows: GBP slips on retail sales
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November 22, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

GBP/USD drop to 6 month lows on weaker retail sales

November 20, 2024

GBP flows: Stronger CPI GBP supportive
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November 20, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

GBP rises on stronger than expected October CPI

November 15, 2024

GBP flows: GBP softer after weak GDP
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November 15, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

GBP slips lower after weak GDP but decline is modest and underlying GBP strength remains

November 12, 2024

GBP flows: GBP edges lower after labour market data
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November 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

UK labour market data mixed but GBP slightly lower, perhaps focusing on the rise in the unemployment rate. But stronger than expected average earnings data may be more significant and could prevent a BoE rate cut in December

November 11, 2024

USD, EUR, GBP, JPY flows: USD firm in early trade
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November 11, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

USD firm as markets anticipate Trump administration. GBP resilient, USD/JPY stretched

October 31, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slumps as gilt yields rise sharply
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October 31, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

GBP falling sharply in an echo of the post-Truss budget reaction of 2022. Hard to oppose GBP weakness. 

October 30, 2024

GBP flows: GBP not much changed on Budget, positive reaction
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October 30, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

GBP is little changed after the Budget speech, but this can be considered a positive reaction given the decline in gilt yields

October 22, 2024

GBP flows: Still scope for rerating despite more dovish BoE
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October 22, 2024 2:04 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to benefit from any further rise in yields, but could still gain if there is a positive reaction to the first budget from the new government.

October 18, 2024

GBP flows: GBP rises on strong retail sales
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October 18, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

EUR/GBP lowest since April 2022 after an unexpected rise in UK retail sales in September

October 16, 2024

GBP flows: GBP falls back on weaker CPI
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October 16, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

GBP dips as CPI data increases chances of rate cuts

October 14, 2024

GBP flows: GBP firm but downside risks
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October 14, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

GBP firm overnight but risks on the downside 

October 11, 2024

GBP flows: GBP little changed after GDP, but...
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October 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

GBP little changed as GDP rises 0.2% in August as expected, but high level of GBP looking harder to justify

October 03, 2024

USD, GBP flows: USD firm on ISM but move looking extended
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October 3, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

ISM generall strong except for employment index. USD may be toppy ahead of tomorrow's employment data

September 20, 2024

GBP flows: GBP gains after strong retail sales
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September 20, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

EUR/GBP testing the year's lows after retail sales extends stronger trend

September 19, 2024

GBP flows: GBP gains after BoE MPC leaves rates unchanged
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September 19, 2024 11:18 AM UTC

GBP up after unchanged rate decision from MPC, with 8-1 vote less dovish than expected. Upside scope for GBP/USD

September 18, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after as expected CPI
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September 18, 2024 6:32 AM UTC

EUR/GBP slightly lower as expected rise in core CPI sustains expectations that BoE will leave rates unchanged tomorrow

September 06, 2024

USD flows: Data adds to 25bps v 50bps from Fed and Hurt USD
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September 6, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

USD pushing lower post NFP.  

August 26, 2024

EUR flows: ECB Lane Hints at Gradual Cuts
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August 26, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Details of Lane comments shows he is still signalling easing. 

August 23, 2024

GBP flows: Bailey Steady Course
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August 23, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

GBP has gained a little extra ground, as BOE Bailey in Jackson Hole signals gradual rate moves.   

August 01, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly weaker after BoE rate cut
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August 1, 2024 11:29 AM UTC

Boe cut rates as expected, but vote was close and statement and forecasts suggest pace of rate cuts will be similar to that priced in the market. 

July 24, 2024

USD flows: USD downside risk on Dudley call for an immediate rate cut
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July 24, 2024 11:35 AM UTC

Former NY Fed president Dudley has written an article calling for an immediate rate cut to avoid recession. His status suggests the market will need to price in a July cut as a more significant risk, puting downward pressure on the USD.

July 19, 2024

GBP flows: GBP modestly weaker after retail sales
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July 19, 2024 6:28 AM UTC

GBP slips a little lower after weaker retail sales. EUR/GBP downside looks limited

July 18, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly softer after labour market data
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July 18, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

EUR/GBP holds above 0.84 with hawkish BoE already well priced in to the FX market.

July 16, 2024

USD flows: USD gains after strong retail sales
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July 16, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

USD firmer on retail sales, but upside limited given lack of rate market reaction

USD, JPY, EUR, GBP flows: USD better bid
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July 16, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

USD firmer, but basis for gains looks flimsy

July 11, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on CPI, more downside seen
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July 11, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Weaker US CPI puts the USD at risk across the board. JPY has the most upside potential longer term, but AUD and GBP may be the best short term performers.

July 05, 2024

GBP flows: Little impact from election result
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July 5, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

GBP unchanged as Labour wins UK election