EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD bulls into 2025

  The mood going into 2025 remains USD positive, with expectations that the Trump administration policies will benefit the USD.  Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to cut four times in H1 2025 compared to market expectations of one cut from the Fed. However, a minority take a negative USD view, given that the USD is already high and tariffs may not be USD positive if it hits the US exceptionalism story – some also point to the 2017 USD decline after the initial post Trump victory rally in November 2016.  Next focus is US data with ISM on Jan 3 and then payrolls Jan 10.