EUR/USD-Commentary

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July 04, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR flows: USD back to near pre-employment levels, JPY still soft
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July 4, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

USD has slipped back overnight and the JPY has recovered, but remains weak, especially versus CHF

July 03, 2025

USD flows: USD up on employment data
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July 3, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD gains as payrolls come in slightly above consensus

USD flows: USD awaiting employment data
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July 3, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

USD has recovered from post-ADP dip but risks on the downside

July 02, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD softer after weak ADP, GBP falling on fiscal concerns
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July 2, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

USD lower on negative ADP report, GBP declines while UK yields rise on fiscal concerns and talk that Chancellor Reeves may resign

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY weaker on tariff threats, strong equities
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July 2, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

JPY weakens as Trump threatens 30% tariff

July 01, 2025

USD flows: Mild recovery on Powell
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July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

USD up a little as Powell plays down scope for cuts

USD, JPY flows: JPY starting to come to the party, but...
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July 1, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

USD/JPY down fairly sharply today but JPY continues to lag well behind European currency strength. JPY still has the most potential for major long term gains

USD, CHF flows: USD continues to weaken, CHF leading
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July 1, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

USD weakness continues with CHF making new 10 year highs

June 30, 2025

EUR, USD flows: German sales weaker, EUR a little stretched
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June 30, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

German retail sales disappoint, FX market generally steady but some risk of EUR/USD correcting lower

June 27, 2025

USD flows: Softer after data, EUR leading
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June 27, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

USD lower as prices rise more than expected and income and spending disappoint

USD flows: New highs in S&P supportive for USD/JPY
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June 27, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Quiet overnight session but equity strength keeping JPY under pressure

June 26, 2025

USD flows: USD makes modest gains after mixed data
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June 26, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

US data mixed but net slightly stronger, USD makes some gains versus JPY

USD, CHF, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness extends on Trump Fed talk
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June 26, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

USD remains weak as WSJ reports Trump considering an early announcement of Powell's replacement as Fed Chair.

June 25, 2025

USD, CHF, EUR, NOK flows: USD weakness may be overdone, CHF strength looks excessive
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June 25, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

Better risk tone should mean CHF comes under pressure

June 23, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: PMIs unremarkable but GBP may gain some support
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June 23, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

EUR a tad softer after PMIs, GBP may make more gains

JPY, USD, EUR, CHF flows: JPY the big loser overnight, PMI data of interest
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June 23, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

JPY loses ground across the board overnight. Preliminary June PMIs of interest in the absence of escalation of the Middle East conflict

June 19, 2025

USD flows: USD firmer on Fed and geopolitics
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June 19, 2025 6:30 AM UTC

Mildly more hawkish fed and talk of US strike on Iran USD supportive 

June 17, 2025

USD flows: Not much reaction to softer retail sales
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June 17, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

May retail sales came in below consensus, but little FX reaction as trend is still solid

June 11, 2025

USD flows: US-China trade progress fails to impress
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June 11, 2025 7:17 PM UTC

Even with a surprisingly subdued CPI to welcome, equities have not been as positive on the US-China trade progress as was Trump, with China’s 6-month limit on rare-earth export licenses suggesting they wish to maintain some leverage. USD weakness has resumed after the post-CPI dip was followed by

June 06, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD gains on employment report, CAD stronger still
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June 6, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

USD gains on employment data look unreliable given downward revisions. CAD to sustain marginal rise. 

EUR, JPY flows: EUR supported by German data, JPY soft
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June 6, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

Solid German production and orders data support more positive EUR tone post-ECB. JPY undermined by weak real wages and consumption.

June 05, 2025

EUR flows: EUR not much changed on ECB
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June 5, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

ECB cuts poilcy rate and inflation forecasts but little EUR reaction

USD flows: Dip on higher claims
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June 5, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

Initial claims rise puts USD on back foot

June 04, 2025

USD flows: USD dips further on weak ISM services
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June 4, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

Weak ISM services keeps downward pressure on the USD

USD flows: USD dips on weak ADP
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June 4, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

ADP much weaker than expected pulling the USD lower, especially against the JPY

EUR, GBP flows: Better bid on upward revisions in PMIs
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June 4, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

EUR and GBP firmer after better PMIs

USD flows: USD still mid-range with mild downside bias
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June 4, 2025 6:32 AM UTC

USD in the middle of the range seen in the last two months. More tariff news or significant data required for ranges to be tested

June 03, 2025

EUR flows: EUR/USD edges lower after softer CPI
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June 3, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

Eurozoen CPI drops below target to 1.9%, but FX impact likely to be modest

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD firmer overnight, JPY dips on Ueda, AUD soft
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June 3, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

USD firmer in Asia with commodity currencies weaker. JPY dips on Ueda but net impact modest. Rangy trading to persist

June 02, 2025

USD flows: USD softer after ISM
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June 2, 2025 2:25 PM UTC

ISM slightly on the soft side but USD weakness reflects the market's tendency rather than the data

USD flows: USD softer on tariff concerns
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June 2, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

USD softer as Trump threatens product tariff increases

May 30, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD softer, CAD firmer after data
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May 30, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD softer in early US trade but little affected by US data. CAD firmer on stronger GDP

JPY, EUR flows: JPY higher on more risk negative tone, EUR edging down
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May 30, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

JPY benefiting from weakening risk sentiment, stronger CPI. EUR slipping towards the centre of recent range

May 29, 2025

USD flows: USD lower as consumer spending revised down
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May 29, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower as Q1 consumer spending revised down to just 1.2%

USD flows: USD gains on court tariff decision
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May 29, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

USD up vs safe havens as court rues reciprocal tariffs illegal

May 27, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: USD firmer early after EUR rally on Monday
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May 27, 2025 7:09 AM UTC

EUR gained as tariff threat delayed, but slipping after weak French CPI. JPY under presure

May 23, 2025

EUR, USD flows: EUR falls as Trump proposes 50% tariff
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May 23, 2025 12:22 PM UTC

The proposal of a 50% tariff on the EU to start on June 1 has hit the EUR

EUR, GBP flows: Data supportive of EUR and GBP
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May 23, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Strogn UK retail sales and upward revision in German GDP should underpin EUR and GBP

May 22, 2025

USD flows: USD gains some support from PMIs
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May 22, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

Better US PMIs push the USD higher

USD flows: USD under pressure
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May 22, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

USD weakens after Bessent/Kato meeting, PMIs in focus

May 19, 2025

USD flows: USD softer on downgrade
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May 19, 2025 7:11 AM UTC

Moody's downgrade puts the USD under pressure

May 16, 2025

USD flows: Michigan sentiemnt shows further decline in confidence, rise in inflaiton expectations
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May 16, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

Disappointign University of Michigan survey ought to be negative for risk and the USD, despite initial reaction

EUR, USD flows: EUR continues to find support below 1.12
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May 16, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Strong European equity market performance underpins the EUR for now

May 15, 2025

USD flows: USD not much changed on mixed data
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May 15, 2025 1:03 PM UTC

PPI softer, retail sales and Philly Fed stronger, but nothing particularly significant in the US numbers. Range trading to continue

May 13, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly lower after softer CPI
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May 13, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

USD slightly lower after CPI but may still have potential for gains

May 12, 2025

EUR flows: EUR/USD risk premium declines
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May 12, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

Scope for a further decline in EUR/USD as risk premia fall

May 08, 2025

USD flows: Trump lifts equites and USD, though signals are mixed
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May 8, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

The US-UK trade deal is underwhelming, if welcome. Trump’s suggestion that tariffs on China could be lowered if talks scheduled this weekend go well is giving the USD a more significant lift, though Trump continues to give mixed signals, making tariff threats alongside a suggestion that equities b

EUR, GBP flows: EUR should gains support from German data, GBP firmer on trade deal hopes
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May 8, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

German production data suggetss rising trend. Talk of US/UK trade deal should offset any concerns about weaker growth in the BoE MPR

May 07, 2025

EUR, SEK flows: EUR well supported, SEK edging lower after data
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May 7, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

EUR/USD well supported on general USD weakness; German orders on the strong side. SEK edging lower after weaker Swedish CPI

May 02, 2025

USD flows: Employment report should be broadly neutral
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May 2, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

Net of revisions, the employment report looks close to consensus