EUR/USD-Commentary

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November 19, 2024

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD quieter, crosses to dominate
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November 19, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

Majors mostly consolidating. Verbal intervention from Japan helping cap USD/JPY but little USD momentum seen. Scope for action on crosses 

November 18, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY slips after Ueda comments
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November 18, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

USD/JPY moved higher after Ueda speech, but BoJ December rate hike remains a close call. EUR/USD may have modest scope for recovery.

November 14, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD gains after PPI
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November 14, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

PPI only marginally stronger than expected but the USD remains firm. However, furtehr gains may be more difficult, particularly against the JPY

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD flows: USD stays firm
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November 14, 2024 7:55 AM UTC

USD gains continue but stretched against AUD and JPY

November 13, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD slips back after CPI
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November 13, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

US yields and the USD both fall despite CPI being bang in line with consensus. Scope for more JPY gains

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD stays firm, JPY under pressure
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November 13, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

US yields and the USD continue to rise. JPY weakness the feature overnight helped by further decline in equity risk premia to the lowest since 2002. 

November 11, 2024

USD, EUR, GBP, JPY flows: USD firm in early trade
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November 11, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

USD firm as markets anticipate Trump administration. GBP resilient, USD/JPY stretched

November 08, 2024

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD reverses gains, CAD in focus
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November 8, 2024 7:59 AM UTC

The rise in US yields and the USD after the election have largely been reversed, but equities remain elevated and commodity currencies have outperformed. But the CAD remains vulnerable if today's employment report is weak.

November 06, 2024

EUR, USD flows: History suggests modest USD gains
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November 6, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

Rising US yields supported the USD in 2016, and are likely to do so again now, but erhpas less substantially. 

EUR flows: EUR downside risks as 2 year yield drops
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November 6, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

EUR 2 year yields drop after US election, possibly on tariff concers, suggesting EUR downside risks.

USD flows: USD up on likely Republican clean sweep
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November 6, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

USD up as Trump victory seems assured with the Republicans also likely to win both houses of Congress. JPY to suffer most initially on risk positive move 

November 05, 2024

USD flows: ISM services data gives the USD a boost
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November 5, 2024 3:08 PM UTC

Strongest index since November 2022

USD flows: Election scenarios for the USD
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November 5, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

USD to gain on Trump victory, fall on Harris win

USD flows: Election awaited, mild risk positive tone
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November 5, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

Markets awaiting election news. USD starting close to fair based on recent metrics. 

November 04, 2024

USD flows: USD softer as polls suggest no Trump advantage
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November 4, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

Latest polls suggests the presidential race is too close to call suggesting USD strength on the expectation of a Trump in is overdone

November 01, 2024

USD flows: USD generally weaker after employment report
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November 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

US employment report clearly on the weak side with downward revisions to August and September as well as the weaker (but weather and strike affected) October number. USD risks on the downside but major move unlikely ahead of the election 

October 31, 2024

EUR flows: EUR supported by strong German retail sales
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October 31, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

EUR retains a mild positive bias after strong German retail sales data

October 30, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer after data
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October 30, 2024 1:37 PM UTC

Solid GDP and strong ADP underpin USD

EUR flows: EUR supported by strong GDP and CPI
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October 30, 2024 9:11 AM UTC

Higher than expected German Q3 GDP and October CPI

EUR flows: EUR supported by strong Spanish data
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October 30, 2024 8:17 AM UTC

Higher than expected Q3 GDP and October CPI

EUR, AUD flows: EUR supported by French GDP, AUD soft
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October 30, 2024 7:49 AM UTC

EUR benefits from better than expected French Q3 GDP, but other Eurozone data awaited. AUD still under pressure but should find support on a 0.65 handle

October 28, 2024

USD. JPY, EUR flows: JPY soft after election, USD firm
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October 28, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

USD/JPY continues to gain as ruling coalition loses majority at weekend election, while USD continues to benefit from rising yields. 

October 25, 2024

EUR flows: EUR marginally firmer after IFO
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October 25, 2024 8:21 AM UTC

IFO survey shows modest recovery in line with PMIs. EUR/USD edges higher and should hold support for now but upside limited

AUD, EUR, JPY flows: Quiet day ahead, AUD looks undervalued
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October 25, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

No major calendar events today. AUD weakness remains puzzling. USD/JPY likely approaching a top

October 24, 2024

EUR flows: Bounce as German PMI improves, but upside limited
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October 24, 2024 8:19 AM UTC

German PMI rises, offsetting French weakness. EUR bounces, but hard to see significant gains.

EUR flows: French PMI weak
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October 24, 2024 7:25 AM UTC

French PMIs weak, EUR under pressure

USD, JPY flows: JPY gains as yields edge lower, verbal intervention returns
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October 24, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

USD/JPY slightly lower but limited downside without yield spread or equity moves

October 18, 2024

USD flows: USD a little softer after housing starts
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October 18, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

USD dips slightly after housing starts. EUR/USD still looks biased lower but USD/JPY stretched near 150.

October 17, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer on US data
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October 17, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

USD/jpy breaks above 150 for the first time since July

EUR flows: EUR slips lower after ECB
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October 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

ECB essentially as expected but EUR remains soft

AUD, EUR flows: AUD recovers, EUR slips further
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October 17, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

AUD up on strong Australian employment report. EUR/USD hits lowest since July

October 10, 2024

USD flows: USD falls despite stronger CPI
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October 10, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

US CPI strogner than expected but offset by higher initial claims

NOK, SEK, JPY, EUR flows: NOK dips marginally on CPI, USD firm
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October 10, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Norwegian CPI weaker than expected, but reaction is mild USD remains strong against EUR and JPY

October 09, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD firm, JPY weakness extends
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October 9, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

USD strength and JPY weakness extends. Echoes of early summer and more JPY wekanes looks likely unless we see weaker US CPI data

NZD, EUR flows: NZD soft after RBNZ, EUR downside preferred
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October 9, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

NZD weaker after RBNZ rate cut as a further 50bp is seen in November. EUR/USD holding up for now but yield spreads suggest downside risks.

October 07, 2024

EUR, USD, JPY flows: USD stays firm, EUR vulnerable
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October 7, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

USD stays firm after strong employment data. EUR vulnerable as spreads move in USD's favour. 

October 04, 2024

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
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October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

USD, JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n helped by Ishiba comments
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October 4, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

JPY recovers helped by Ishiba announcing economic package to escape deflation, but quiet market likely ahead of the US employment report.

October 02, 2024

USD, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm after better ADP
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October 2, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

USD generally higher but JPY seeing largest move as risk sentiment recovers (at least in FX trading)

October 01, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD gains, JPY soft after Powell, Mimura comments
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October 1, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

USD generally firm as Powell sounds less dovish. JPY stays weak as market remains sceptical of BoJ tightening despite more JPY positive comments from new head currency diplomat Mimura.

September 27, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on softer PCE price data
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September 27, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

USD generally softer after PCE price index rises only 0.1% in August. AUD and JPY favoured

EUR flows: EUR softer after weak French and Spanish CPI
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September 27, 2024 8:50 AM UTC

French and Spanish CPI come in much weaker than expected in September at 1.5% and 1.7% respectively on an HICP basis, firming up expectations of an October ECB rate cut and pushing EUR/USD lower towards 1.11. But further declines will likely require higher US yields.

September 26, 2024

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: US data maintains positive risk sentiment
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September 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims and better core durable goods orders keep the USD and risky currencies on the front foot

September 24, 2024

JPY, AUD, EUR flows: USD firm early in Europe, AUD has upside potential
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September 24, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD positive and risk positive tone as China eases. AUD has upside scope

September 23, 2024

USD flows: USD up on PMIs
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September 23, 2024 1:55 PM UTC

USD firms as US PMI compares positively to Europe

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
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September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
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September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 17, 2024

USD, CAD flows: USD slightly firmer after retail sales
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September 17, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

US retial sales marginally on the firm side, underlying trend solid. Canadian CPI marginally weak. USD edges higher but focus on the Fed. 

EUR flows: EUR little affected by weak ZEW
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September 17, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

ZEW survey very weak but EUR show little reaction. Nevertheless, it does suggest some downside risks.

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Quiet overnight but some corrective pressure
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September 17, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

Current yield spreads suggest further USD losses but risk of short term USD upside correction if FOMC only cuts 25bps