EUR/USD-Commentary

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February 17, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD soft on positive risk sentiment and strong Japanese data
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February 17, 2025 7:42 AM UTC

Rising equities and storng Japanese GDP keeping the USD on the back foot

February 14, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD under pressure
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February 14, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

USD weaker after Trump tariff announcement

February 13, 2025

USD flows: Reciprocal tariffs, apparently also against VAT
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February 13, 2025 7:10 PM UTC

The USD saw a bounce, temporarily erasing earlier losses as Trump’s tariff announcement arrived, with the biggest shock probably that those countries applying VAT will be considered as using tariffs. 

USD flows: Little impact from US data
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February 13, 2025 1:47 PM UTC

Initial USD gains on US data fade

EUR flows: EUR gains on Ukraine look optimistic
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February 13, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

EUR gains on the back of rising expectations of an end to the Ukraine war look optimistic

February 12, 2025

USD flows: USD gains on higher than expected CPI
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February 12, 2025 1:55 PM UTC

US January CPI comes in much stronger than expected, killing hopes of an early Fed rate cut and boosting US yields and the USD

February 11, 2025

USD flows: Muted response to Powell
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February 11, 2025 3:09 PM UTC

Powell triggering slightly firmer yields but USD not much changed

February 10, 2025

USD, NOK, SEK flows: Focus on tariffs, scope for scandi gains
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February 10, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

USD may benefit from latest tariff announcement. Scandis have upside scope

February 07, 2025

USD, CAD, JPY flows: Jobs data net strong
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February 7, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

The January payroll number was a little lower than expected, but otherwise the US report was generally strong. The Canadian data was also stronger than expected

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: Awaiting US jobs data
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February 7, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

German production and trade data has little impact. JPY stays firm, AUD supported by better risk tone

February 06, 2025

SEK, EUR flows: SEK firmer after higher CPI, EUR steady after recovery in German orders
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February 6, 2025 7:37 AM UTC

Swedish CPI rises sharply, German orders recover but trend remains uncertain

February 04, 2025

CAD, EUR, JPY flows: CAD bounces on tariff reprieve, EUR and JPY have upside scope
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February 4, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Most currencies back to Friday's close as Trump suspends Canadian and Mexican tariffs for a month

February 03, 2025

USD flows: US falls as gaps close but underlying story remains
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February 3, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

USD weakes as opening gaps close but downside limited except against the JPY

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD and JPY strength to be sustained near term
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February 3, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

Imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China was clearly not priced in. USD and JPY gains to be systained, with JPY strength to potentially increase if equities weaken further

January 31, 2025

EUR, CAD flows: EUR upside limited, CAD under threat
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January 31, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

EUR upside limited by weak German data and political risk. CAD biased lower on weak GDP and tariff threat

EUR flows: EUR slips on weak CPIs
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January 31, 2025 9:17 AM UTC

French and German Janaury CPI both coming in below consensus 

USD, EUR, CAD, JPY flows: EUR steady, JPY still firm, CAD in danger
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January 31, 2025 7:41 AM UTC

EUR steady after weak German retail sales with rate expectations steady after yesterday's ECB meeting. JPY still looks biased higher on yield spreads. CAD in danger from tariff threat

January 30, 2025

USD, EUR, CAD flows: Muted respose to ECB, US GDP data
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January 30, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

ECB cut 25bps as expected. US GDP 2.3% may be stronger than expected after Wednesday's release of a record trade deficit 

EUR, JPY flows: EUR weaker as GDP disappoints
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January 30, 2025 9:10 AM UTC

Weaker than expected German and Italian Q4 GDP pushes EUR/USD lower

USD, EUR, JPY flows: French GDP only a mild EUR negative, USD vulnerable to US GDP
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January 30, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

French GDP fell 0.1% in Q4, but the weakness is net trade related and may be offset by gains elsehwere in the Eurozone. US GDP later could extend USD losses agaianst the JPY

January 29, 2025

USD flows: Little reaction to huge trade deficit, but clearly USD negative
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January 29, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

US goods trade deficit second largest in history. Along with weak inentory data will cut around 1% off Q4 GDP tomorrow, so should be USD negative.

January 27, 2025

JPY, EUR flows: USD and JPY firmer as equities slip
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January 27, 2025 7:45 AM UTC

USD and JPY gain against riskier currencies as equities slip on tariff and AI concerns.

January 24, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP rallies on PMIs, general risk positive tone
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January 24, 2025 10:18 AM UTC

GBP recovers as UK PMIs match EUR rise. Global risk positive tone persists helped by PMIs and Trump's less pro-tariff comments overnight

USD, JPY flows: USD/JPY moves lower after BoJ, USD falls on Trump comments
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January 24, 2025 7:37 AM UTC

USD/JPY dropped a figure after the BoJ hiked but the USD was also generally weaker as Trump said he didn't want to raise tariffs on China

January 23, 2025

JPY, EUR flows: USD looking expensive
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January 23, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

The USD looks expensive based on current yield spreads

January 22, 2025

GBP, EUR flows: GBP softer after borrowing data
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January 22, 2025 7:19 AM UTC

GBP edges lower after higher than expected PSNB. EUR rally fades after Trump tariff threat

January 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slumps on report tariffs to be delayed
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January 20, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

The WSJ reports that Trump won't immediately introduce tariffs, triggering a 1% USD decline

USD flows: Quiet market but focus on Trump
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January 20, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

USD marginally softer against the riskier currencies on hopes of moderation on tariffs

January 17, 2025

USD flows: USD steady after strong housing starts
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January 17, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Little change in the USD after strong housing starts

January 16, 2025

USD flows: USD not much changed after data, but Philly Fed strong
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January 16, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

USD marginally softer after the data, but Philly Fed suggests scope for recovery

January 15, 2025

USD flows: USD slips on marginally softer CPI
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January 15, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

US CPI only very marginally below consensus, but USD was looking overstretched so some further downside seen

January 14, 2025

USD flows: USD weaker on soft PPI
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January 14, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

Softer than expected PPI suggests USD downside risks, especially against the riskier currencies

EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: General USD correction, AUD favoured
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January 14, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

USD corrects lower as equities rally

January 13, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD, JPY former, AUD looks oversold
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January 13, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

USD and JPY benefit as equities soften but equity weakness is mild and AUD looks undervalued

January 10, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD weaker as equities fall
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January 10, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Rising inflation expectations in Universiyt of Michigan survey support higher yields and weight on equities, supporting the JPY

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
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January 10, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

US employment report generally strong. USD up 0.5% across the board except against the CAD as the Canadian employment report shows similar strength

January 09, 2025

EUR flows: German data should help stabilise EUR
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January 9, 2025 8:04 AM UTC

German production data provides some support but trade data underlines tariff threat

January 08, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly softer after mixed data
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January 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

USD slightly softer after softer ADP but claims data suggetss downside limited

EUR flows: German data less weak than it looks
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January 8, 2025 7:36 AM UTC

EUR/USD slightly softer after German orders and retail sales data, but underlying trends are better than headlines suggest

January 06, 2025

EUR flows: Mild EUR/USD upside risks on German CPI
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January 6, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

EUR/USD has bounced from the lows and may gain some support from German CPI data

January 03, 2025

USD, EUR flows: USD mostly firmer after ISM
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January 3, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

USD gains against JPY and commodity currencies, EUR resilient

USD, EUR flows: USD strengthens against EUR without yield spread support
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January 3, 2025 7:54 AM UTC

EUR/USD continues decline despite steady front end yield spreads. Playbook from first Trump presidency suggests caution

January 02, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR starting the year soft, some potential for recovery
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January 2, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

EUR looking soft against established metrics. USD/JPY still sticking to 10 year spread correlation.

December 31, 2024

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD bulls into 2025
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December 31, 2024 8:01 AM UTC

USD is trading sideways in holiday thinned European trading.

December 30, 2024

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD drifts in Europe
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December 30, 2024 12:17 PM UTC

The USD has drifted lower in European trading, with thin conditions and year end flows rather than fundamentals being the driving force. 

December 23, 2024

EUR/USD flows: Trump Threats
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December 23, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Some focus on Trump threats in Europe today, after tariffs threats on the EU on Friday if it did buy more oil and gas from the U.S. and demands from president elect Trump that NATO countries defence spending should be 5% of GDP. 

December 19, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD surges on Fed, JPY suffers as BoJ stands pat
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December 19, 2024 7:51 AM UTC

USD generally stronger as US yields rise after FOMC. JPY sees most weakness as BoJ leaves rates unchanged

December 17, 2024

USD, CAD flows: USD little changed after mixed data
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December 17, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

US retail sales and Canadian CPI data mixed. Little net USD impact

EUR flows: EUR slips on IFO
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December 17, 2024 9:22 AM UTC

IFO business climate falls to lowest since pandemic. EUR falls but downside scope modest

December 16, 2024

EUR flows: PMIs allow small EUR/USD bounce, but...
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December 16, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

EUR/USD moves slightly higher as French and German PMIs rise modestly