USD flows: Trump lifts equites and USD, though signals are mixed

May 8, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

The US-UK trade deal is underwhelming, if welcome. Trump’s suggestion that tariffs on China could be lowered if talks scheduled this weekend go well is giving the USD a more significant lift, though Trump continues to give mixed signals, making tariff threats alongside a suggestion that equities b

EUR, GBP flows: EUR should gains support from German data, GBP firmer on trade deal hopes

May 8, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

German production data suggetss rising trend. Talk of US/UK trade deal should offset any concerns about weaker growth in the BoE MPR

USD flows: ISM slightly better than expected, USD stays firm

May 1, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

ISM better than feared, USD firm

USD flows: USD resilient despite higher claims

May 1, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Higher claism may be a sign of things to come, but USD still resilient for now

USD flows: USD slightly softer after GDP

April 30, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

GDP came in at -0.3% in Q1 due to weakness in net exports, but underlying demand remains strong

EUR flows: Eurozone GDP stronger than expected

April 30, 2025 9:09 AM UTC

Q1 GDP up 0.4% q/q against consensus of 0.2%

USD flows: Asymmetrical data risk

April 28, 2025 6:56 PM UTC

The US has a heavy data calendar this week, Q1 GDP on Wednesday and April non-farm payroll on Friday being the highlights. Tomorrow sees advance goods trade and job openings for March and consumer confidence for April. 

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Steadier markets suggest scope for fiirmer USD short term

April 28, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

USD/JPY looks toppy medium terms but EUR/USD has scope for short term dip

USD flows: Durables strong but core neutral, USD steady

April 24, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

Stronger durables were due to aircraft, and it's hard to see much FX action into the end of the week, although declining volatility may favour the riskier currencies

EUR flows: Supported by stronger IFO survey

April 24, 2025 8:38 AM UTC

IFO rises against expectations of a decline

USD flows: USD recovery extends after PMI

April 23, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

US composite PMI below consensus but manufacturing rises. USD correction can extend but underlying picture still negative

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMIs particularly weak, GBP a little softer

April 23, 2025 8:50 AM UTC

UK composite PMI lowest since the pandemic

EUR, JPY flows: French and German PMIs mildly softer than consensus

April 23, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

While the French and German PMIs were both on the weak side of consensus forecasts, EUR/USD is not much changed and USD/JPY slightly higher, suggesitng they are not as bad as feared

USD flows: USD recovers modestly on Trump comments, PMIs in focus

April 23, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

Removal of threat to fire Powell supports USD, but promises on China too vague

USD flows: Trump said looking for a new Fed Chairman

April 17, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

The USD is a touch weaker after the WSJ reported Trump has spoken with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about replacing current Fed Chairman Powell, though it appears Warsh is not interested. If Trump persists in his search, he will have trouble finding someone who will have the market’s trust. 

EUR, USD flows: EUR not much changed after ECB but USD likely to stay soft

April 17, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

ECB cuts as expected, removes reference to restrictive policy. USD still at risk due to high level and rising uncertainty on US economic prospects

EUR, USD flows: USD remains under pressure

April 11, 2025 1:30 PM UTC

USD still under pressure, 10 year yields still rising despite weaker PPI

GBP, EUR, USD, CHF flows: GBP slightly firmer on GDP, USD remains under pressure

April 11, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

GBP benefiting from much strogner than expected UK GDP. USD remains under pressure, CHF strength may be a little overdone

USD flows: Another partial climbdown from Trump, uncertainty persists

April 9, 2025 6:12 PM UTC

Stocks have surged on the latest Trump announcement, a 90-day pause on tariffs with the reciprocal rate lowered to an across the board 10%, coupled with a fresh escalation with China, moving to 125% from 104%.  It appears China’s retaliation has given Trump an excuse to partially back down elsewh

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: Safe havens favoured as tariffs come into operation

April 9, 2025 7:05 AM UTC

US "reciprocal" tariffs have come into operation this morning, and safe havens still look likely to be favoured, with equity markets weak and US bonds being sold heavily.

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: JPY and AUD look good value

April 8, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

A mild risk reocvery is being seen, but whether it continues will depend on the news on tariffs. But there is value in JPY, AUD and NOK

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: Mild risk recovery, but...

April 8, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Equity markets recovering modestly but still value in JPY

USD flows: Mild recovery on employment report, but risks remain

April 4, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

US emloyment report modestly stronger than expected, but of limited significance

EUR flows: EUR steady but some corrective decline possible

April 4, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

EUR steady after weakish German orders data, but gains above 1.11 look a bridge too far and there is scope for a pullback towards 1.10

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness dramatic

April 3, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

USD declines have been sharp and greater than suggested by yield spread moves. We may be seeing a sea change in sentiment

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD down on tariff rise, JPY favoured

April 3, 2025 6:53 AM UTC

The market seems to have been unprepared for the well flagged US tariff increase, and equity weakness and bond yield declines suggest JPY gains most reliable

USD flows: Mixed tariff bag, some relief for Canada and Mexico, Japan and EU hit

April 2, 2025 9:30 PM UTC

The Trump tariff announcement is a mixed bag, with some relief for Canada and Mexico but aggressive action on Japan and the EU, as well as several developing nations.  The net impact is probably not much off expectations for the US economy, which will face somewhat higher inflation and somewhat slo

USD, JPY flows: ADP above consensus

April 2, 2025 12:19 PM UTC

ADP has come in above consensus, but impact unlikely to be large

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD lower on ISM

April 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

A weak ISM survey pulling the USD lower against the JPY in particular

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Tariffs awaited

April 1, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

A quiet calendar today with tomorrow's reciprocal tariff announcement the main focus

EUR flows: German state CPIs broadly in line with consensus

March 31, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

Mixed German state CPIs. Mild upside risk but close enough to consensus for there to be no significant EUR impact.

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as risk weakens

March 31, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

Weaker equities and lower yields on tariff concerns supporting JPY gains

USD flows: USD staying soft as confidence declines further

March 25, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

USD weaker in early US and the lower than expected Conference Board consumer confidence index should sustain the weaker tone. 

EUR flows: EUR steady as IFO rises in line with consensus

March 25, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

IFO in line with consensus but yield spreads still suggests EUR/USD could drift lower

USD flows: USD up after stronger PMI

March 24, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

USD gains across the board on stronger PMI, but gains look a little stretched, particularly versus the JPY

EUR flows: Mixed PMIs leave EUR/USD little changed

March 24, 2025 8:44 AM UTC

French PMIs improved, but stayed at low levels. German manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, but services fell

USD flows: US data mixed, initial USD gains look unjustified

March 17, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

USD gain after the US data look hard to justify goven slowing retail sales trend and weak Empire survey

USD flows: USD mixed, focus on US data

March 17, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

Commodity currencies storng but USD makes gains against the JPY overnight. US retail sales and Empire Manufacturing survey in focus