EUR/USD-Commentary

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July 12, 2024

USD flows: Still soft despite strong PPI
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July 12, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

PPI came in stronger thna expected, but the market mood is still dominated by yesterday's CPI

July 11, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on CPI, more downside seen
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July 11, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Weaker US CPI puts the USD at risk across the board. JPY has the most upside potential longer term, but AUD and GBP may be the best short term performers.

July 08, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: EUR bounces after initial dip on French election
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July 8, 2024 9:18 AM UTC

EUR/JPY reached new 32 year highs

EUR flows: EUR slightly softer after French election
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July 8, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

EUR a little softer, mainly versus CHF, after Left Alliance unexpectedly the largest party after the French election. But parliament still looks deadlocked as expected

EUR flows: Hung France Parliament Led to Opening Euro Offers
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July 8, 2024 3:51 AM UTC

EUR/USD gap lower after weekend news on french election

July 05, 2024

USD flows: USD shrugs of mildly weak US employment report
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July 5, 2024 12:50 PM UTC

US emloyment report modestly weak, with lower than expected private payrolls and a rise in unemployment. But USD reverses initial decline

EUR, JPY flows: Weak German data suggest EUR/JPY decline
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July 5, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

German industrial production mirrors weaknes sin orders. EUR/JPY more at risk than EUR/USD

July 04, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: Weak German orders may cap EUR
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July 4, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

German orders weakest since pandemic

July 03, 2024

USD flows: Softer on ISM
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July 3, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower on weaker ISM

July 02, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on Powell comments
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July 2, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

Powell mildly dovish, USD slightly lower

July 01, 2024

EUR flows: EUR gains after French election
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July 1, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

EUR up after RN wins a slightly smaller than expected victory, but period of deadlock remains the most likely outcome.

EUR flows: Opening gap was not closed
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July 1, 2024 2:24 AM UTC

France right party made gains in election

June 28, 2024

USD flows: USD little changed after data
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June 28, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

PCE prices on the low side in May, but April revised up.

EUR flows: EUR little changed after European data
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June 28, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

European data much as expected, French election awaited

June 25, 2024

USD flows: Watching U.S. Tech
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June 25, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

Some traders are watching the sharp pullback in Nvidia share price in the last few sessions. 

June 24, 2024

EUR flows: IFO slightly soft, but little EUR impact
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June 24, 2024 8:53 AM UTC

IFO softness may have been antitipated after weaker EZ PMIs last week.

EUR, JPY flows: IFO awaited, JPY stays weak
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June 24, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

IFO likely to show May PMI was an anomaly. JPY weak but may be due a pause

June 21, 2024

USD flows: Supported by strong PMIs
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June 21, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

USD up on better than expected PMIs, particularly against the JPY

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
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June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.

EUR flows: Dips on soft French PMI
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June 21, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

French PMI lower and EUR follows, German data awaited. 

June 19, 2024

USD flows: BOE/SNB Next Focus
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June 19, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Thursday see key BOE and SNB meetings. 

June 18, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after retail sales
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June 18, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

USD lower after retail sales come in below consensus in May, but impact unlikely to be large

EUR, JPY, AUD: Mild risk recovery continues
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June 18, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

EUR firmer but upside limited. AUD supported by hawkish RBA. JPY weakness extends but one way market looks unsustainable.

June 17, 2024

EUR, JPY: Steady trading in quiet markets
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June 17, 2024 6:34 AM UTC

EUR awaiting more news on French elecitons, but holding steady for now. JPY awaiting trigger for singificant gains

June 13, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD lower after PPI, claims
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June 13, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

USD diops after weaker than xpected PPI and higher jobless claims, but scope for bigger decline

USD, JPY, EUR, CHF flows: USD lower against riskier currencies after CPI, FOMC
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June 13, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

Despite the FOMC dots showing a median expectation of only one rate cut this year, US yields and the USD are lower, except against the JPY, and JPY weakness looks anomalous. Widening France/Germany spreads may maintain downard pressure on EUR/CHF.

June 12, 2024

USD flows: USD lower after weaker than expected April CPI
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June 12, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

US CPI 0.1% below consensus, USD has scope for extended decline

June 10, 2024

EUR, JPY, SEK, NOK flows: EUR under pressure, SEK strength to fade
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June 10, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

EUR under pressure on political uncertainty. Weak Swedish GDP should cap SEK

June 07, 2024

USD flows: Dots and Powell Could Diverge
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June 7, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

The FOMC June 12 if the key event for the USD, but could prove choppy for the USD. 

USD flows: U.S. Employment Up but Down In Household Data Survey
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June 7, 2024 1:35 PM UTC

The USD initial reaction has been to push higher with the larger than expected increase in NFP.  

USD flows: U.S. Employment More Reaction if Weak?
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June 7, 2024 9:47 AM UTC

The USD was sideways in Europe, with the approach of the U.S. employment report being key.

June 06, 2024

EUR flows: Lagrade Back Lane Clearer Guidance
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June 6, 2024 1:48 PM UTC

While Largarde did not provide specific guidance, she confirmed the clear message from ECB Lane that the lagged effects of tighter policy will still feedthrough H2 2024 and 2025; policy is now forward looking and real policy rates have risen and need to be lowered.  

EUR flows: ECB 25bps, but Inflation Forecast up
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June 6, 2024 12:25 PM UTC

The EUR has rallied after the expected 25bps cut, as bond yields have drifted higher as they are focused on the upward revision for 2025 inflation from 2.0%  to 2.2%.  

EUR flows: Waiting for the ECB
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June 6, 2024 8:39 AM UTC

The EUR has been subdued ahead of the ECB meeting, with a 25bps cut in official rates now fully discounted. 

June 05, 2024

USD flows: USD up on services ISM
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June 5, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

Strong bounce in ISM services underpins the USD

June 03, 2024

USD flows: USD down on ISM
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June 3, 2024 2:32 PM UTC

Weaker than expected manufacturing ISM, particularly orders, weighs on USD. 

May 31, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after data
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May 31, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

US core PCE weaker than expected.

EUR, CHF, JPY flows: Steady market, EZ CPI awaited
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May 31, 2024 6:35 AM UTC

EUR unaffected by German retail data. CHF/JPY looks overextended.

May 30, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after GDP, trade
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May 30, 2024 12:50 PM UTC

US Q1 GDP revised down as expected but bigger April trade deficit may reduce expectations for Q2. Modestly USD negative

May 29, 2024

EUR flows: EUR lower after German state CPIs
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May 29, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

German state CPI look to be broadly in line with consensus, but market treating them as soft and EUR a little weaker. Weakness unlikely to persist

EUR, JPY flows: EUR may get support from confidence data, JPY weakness continues
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May 29, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

Better German confidence data provides some support for EUR. JPY weak in spite of new high in JGB yields

May 28, 2024

JPY, EUR flows: Stuck in ranges in quiet markets
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May 28, 2024 6:28 AM UTC

Fundamentlas pointing toward JPY strength, but quiet markets encouraging carry trades. EUR/USD capped at 1.09 after Villeroy comments.

May 27, 2024

EUR flows: ECB Lane Confirms June 6 Cut and More in 2024
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May 27, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

No FX reaction to a key FT interview with ECB Lane, though bond yields edged lower.

May 23, 2024

USD flows: USD rises on strong PMIs
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May 23, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

Much stornger than expected US services PMI boost the USD across the board

EUR flows: EUR firm on better Eurozone PMI
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May 23, 2024 8:04 AM UTC

Eurozone PMI slightly avove expectations driven by strong manufacturing

EUR flows: EUR recovers on stronger German PMIs
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May 23, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

German PMIs come in stronger than expected, reversing the impact of the weaker French numbers earlier. The Eurozone numbers as a whole now look likely to come in broadly in line with the modestly stronger consensus.  

EUR flows: EUR softer on French PMIs
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May 23, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected French services and composite PMIs for May. These are likely to weigh on EUR/USD if repeated in the German and Eurozone data.  

USD, JPY, AUD, EUR flows: USD firm, AUD and JPY soft
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May 23, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

USD firm after FOMC minutes. AUD suffering as China stocks ease. JPY pressures intervention levels

May 21, 2024

AUD, JPY, EUR flows: EUR steady, JPY and AUD weak
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May 21, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

AUD falls on regional equity dip. JPY apoproaching intervention levels

May 20, 2024

JPY, USD, CHF, EUR flows: JPY soft, EUR pressing 1.09
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May 20, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weak in quiet conditions, EUR/JPY highest since intervention