EUR/USD-Commentary

View:

August 22, 2025

USD flows: USD generally lower on Powell
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

Powell signals September rate cut liekly. US yields lower and USD down with them. JPY leads the way

EUR flows: EUR unmoved by Nagel comments
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Mildly hawkish comemnts from a hawk have little impact

USD, EUR, AUD flows: USD firm, EUR and AUD under pressure
Paying Article

August 22, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

Stronger US data, a downward revision to German Q2 GDP and weaker equities put the USD on the front foot against the EUR and AUD

August 21, 2025

USD flows: USD dips after stronger claims
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

Higher initial and continuing claims trigger modest USD decline

USD flows: USD gains on strong PMI
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 2:02 PM UTC

US composite S&P MI matches the high from December. USD gains across the board

EUR flows: EUR slightly higher after better PMI
Paying Article

August 21, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

EUR/USD edging up after modestly better PMI but range remains intact

August 20, 2025

USD flows: USD lower after Trump calls for Fed governor resignation
Paying Article

August 20, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

Trump has called for Fed governor Lisa Cook to resign due to accusations of mortgage fraud. USD lower, safe havens preferred

August 19, 2025

USD flows: Most pairs rangebound
Paying Article

August 19, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

Little to move markets today as Ukraine Summit produces little of substance. Mild risk negative tone

August 18, 2025

USD flows: Quiet start
Paying Article

August 18, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Little to move markets today with Trump-Zelenky meeting the main focus

August 15, 2025

USD flows: USD edges lower despite solid US data
Paying Article

August 15, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

US retail sale sand Empire survey on the strong side

JPY flows: JPY firm after stronger than expected Q2 GDP
Paying Article

August 15, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Japanese GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q2, supporting the JPY

August 14, 2025

USD flows: USD rises after stronger PPI
Paying Article

August 14, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD up after stronger PPI

August 13, 2025

USD flows: USD soft in early trade
Paying Article

August 13, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

USD weakening as equities extend gains on dovish Fed view

August 12, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly lower on broadly neutral data
Paying Article

August 12, 2025 12:40 PM UTC

US CPI data broadly as expected, with core a tad firm. USD generally lower

August 04, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY recovery has legs, CHF under a little pressure
Paying Article

August 4, 2025 7:33 AM UTC

Quiet start, CHF softer, JPY has potential to gain more longer term

August 01, 2025

USD flows: USD hit by downward revisions to employment
Paying Article

August 1, 2025 1:14 PM UTC

Big downward revisions to May and June employment data undermine labour market perceptions and weaken the USD

July 30, 2025

USD flows: USD gains on stronger US data
Paying Article

July 30, 2025 12:43 PM UTC

US GDP above consensus, but H1 still quite soft. USD modestly firmer

EUR, USD, JPY, CAD flows: Better Eurozone data may provide some EUR support
Paying Article

July 30, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

Stornger French GDP and German retail sales help stabilise EUR

July 28, 2025

EUR, USD, JPY flows: EUR/USD ambiguous after trade deal, JPY weak
Paying Article

July 28, 2025 7:04 AM UTC

EEUR/USD failes to maintain initial gains on trade deal. EUR/JPY continues to advance towards all time high

EUR/USD flows: Deal
Paying Article

July 28, 2025 1:48 AM UTC

The E.U. and U.S. reach an agreement on trade

July 24, 2025

EUR flows: EUR up as yields rise on Lagarde
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 12:42 PM UTC

Lagarde sounding less dovish, market now not fully pricing in any more easing this year. EUR firmer, but EUR/USD upside may be more limited than EUR gains on the crosses.

EUR, GBP flows: GBP weaker on PMIs
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 8:58 AM UTC

Weaker UK PMI pushes GBP lower, but implications are limited near term

USD flows: USD weaker on trade deals
Paying Article

July 24, 2025 8:56 AM UTC

The USD has weakened on talk of trade deals, but underlying picture is unclear

July 23, 2025

JPY flows: JPY reverses initial gains on trade deal
Paying Article

July 23, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

JPY i nitially agins on trade deal, but positive equity market reaction and expectation of other deals helps the USD

July 22, 2025

USD flows: Risks to the downside as trade sentiment sours
Paying Article

July 22, 2025 6:38 AM UTC

A quiet calendar, but the ruling out of a trade deal with India before August 1st suggests a risk negative tone

July 18, 2025

USD flows: Recovery in housing starts of limited significance
Paying Article

July 18, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

USD may stabilise after data after softening through the European morning

July 16, 2025

USD flows: USD dips on weaker PPI
Paying Article

July 16, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

June PPI weaker than expected, sustaining the impression of subdued inflationary pressures despite tariffs. USD a touch weaker but positive equity market reaction suggests CHF vulnerable

July 15, 2025

JPY, EUR, USD flows: JPY still weak after softer US CPI
Paying Article

July 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Lower US yields ought to be JPY supportive, but sentiment remains negative. USD otherwise softer versus AUD

JPY, EUR, USD flows: JPY still weak as equities stay firm
Paying Article

July 15, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

JPY weak despite higher JGB yields. New high in S&P500 futures

July 14, 2025

JPY, EUR, USD flows: Tariff news weighs on EUR, JPY favoured
Paying Article

July 14, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico announced at the weekend put downward pressure on EUR, support JPY

July 11, 2025

CAD, EUR flows: CAD benefits from better employment data
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

GBP weakens as May shows another drop in GDP. Trend is weakening although latest 3m/3m number is flattered by upward revision to March

GBP, EUR, CAD flows: GBP softer after weak May GDP
Paying Article

July 11, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

GBP weakens as May shows another drop in GDP. Trend is weakening although latest 3m/3m number is flattered by upward revision to March

July 10, 2025

USD flows: USD firmer after claims
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

USD firmer as claism fall again, but continuing claims still high

NOK, SEK, EUR flows: NOK marginally higher after CPI, tariff news awaited
Paying Article

July 10, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

NOK still has scope for gains after modest post CPI rise. Tariff news awaited

July 07, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD firmer after Trump announces 25% tariffs for Japan and Korea
Paying Article

July 7, 2025 5:02 PM UTC

Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea has the USD generally firmer, though impact on USD/JPY was modest.

SEK, EUR flows: SEK recovering after stronger CPI, EUR supported by German production
Paying Article

July 7, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

SEK a little higher after Swedish CPI, German inductiral production suggests improving trend and could be EUR supportiveĀ 

July 04, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR flows: USD back to near pre-employment levels, JPY still soft
Paying Article

July 4, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

USD has slipped back overnight and the JPY has recovered, but remains weak, especially versus CHF

July 03, 2025

USD flows: USD up on employment data
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD gains as payrolls come in slightly above consensus

USD flows: USD awaiting employment data
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

USD has recovered from post-ADP dip but risks on the downside

July 02, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD softer after weak ADP, GBP falling on fiscal concerns
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

USD lower on negative ADP report, GBP declines while UK yields rise on fiscal concerns and talk that Chancellor Reeves may resign

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY weaker on tariff threats, strong equities
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

JPY weakens as Trump threatens 30% tariff

July 01, 2025

USD flows: Mild recovery on Powell
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

USD up a little as Powell plays down scope for cuts

USD, JPY flows: JPY starting to come to the party, but...
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

USD/JPY down fairly sharply today but JPY continues to lag well behind European currency strength. JPY still has the most potential for major long term gains

USD, CHF flows: USD continues to weaken, CHF leading
Paying Article

July 1, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

USD weakness continues with CHF making new 10 year highs

June 30, 2025

EUR, USD flows: German sales weaker, EUR a little stretched
Paying Article

June 30, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

German retail sales disappoint, FX market generally steady but some risk of EUR/USD correcting lower

June 27, 2025

USD flows: Softer after data, EUR leading
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

USD lower as prices rise more than expected and income and spending disappoint

USD flows: New highs in S&P supportive for USD/JPY
Paying Article

June 27, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Quiet overnight session but equity strength keeping JPY under pressure

June 26, 2025

USD flows: USD makes modest gains after mixed data
Paying Article

June 26, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

US data mixed but net slightly stronger, USD makes some gains versus JPY

USD, CHF, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness extends on Trump Fed talk
Paying Article

June 26, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

USD remains weak as WSJ reports Trump considering an early announcement of Powell's replacement as Fed Chair.

June 25, 2025

USD, CHF, EUR, NOK flows: USD weakness may be overdone, CHF strength looks excessive
Paying Article

June 25, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

Better risk tone should mean CHF comes under pressure