EUR/USD-Commentary

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October 18, 2024

USD flows: USD a little softer after housing starts
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October 18, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

USD dips slightly after housing starts. EUR/USD still looks biased lower but USD/JPY stretched near 150.

October 17, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer on US data
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October 17, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

USD/jpy breaks above 150 for the first time since July

EUR flows: EUR slips lower after ECB
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October 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

ECB essentially as expected but EUR remains soft

AUD, EUR flows: AUD recovers, EUR slips further
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October 17, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

AUD up on strong Australian employment report. EUR/USD hits lowest since July

October 10, 2024

USD flows: USD falls despite stronger CPI
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October 10, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

US CPI strogner than expected but offset by higher initial claims

NOK, SEK, JPY, EUR flows: NOK dips marginally on CPI, USD firm
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October 10, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

Norwegian CPI weaker than expected, but reaction is mild USD remains strong against EUR and JPY

October 09, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD firm, JPY weakness extends
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October 9, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

USD strength and JPY weakness extends. Echoes of early summer and more JPY wekanes looks likely unless we see weaker US CPI data

NZD, EUR flows: NZD soft after RBNZ, EUR downside preferred
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October 9, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

NZD weaker after RBNZ rate cut as a further 50bp is seen in November. EUR/USD holding up for now but yield spreads suggest downside risks.

October 07, 2024

EUR, USD, JPY flows: USD stays firm, EUR vulnerable
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October 7, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

USD stays firm after strong employment data. EUR vulnerable as spreads move in USD's favour. 

October 04, 2024

USD flows: USD surges on strong employment report
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October 4, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD sharply higher on unambiguously strong US employment report

USD, JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n helped by Ishiba comments
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October 4, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

JPY recovers helped by Ishiba announcing economic package to escape deflation, but quiet market likely ahead of the US employment report.

October 02, 2024

USD, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm after better ADP
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October 2, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

USD generally higher but JPY seeing largest move as risk sentiment recovers (at least in FX trading)

October 01, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD gains, JPY soft after Powell, Mimura comments
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October 1, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

USD generally firm as Powell sounds less dovish. JPY stays weak as market remains sceptical of BoJ tightening despite more JPY positive comments from new head currency diplomat Mimura.

September 27, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on softer PCE price data
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September 27, 2024 1:19 PM UTC

USD generally softer after PCE price index rises only 0.1% in August. AUD and JPY favoured

EUR flows: EUR softer after weak French and Spanish CPI
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September 27, 2024 8:50 AM UTC

French and Spanish CPI come in much weaker than expected in September at 1.5% and 1.7% respectively on an HICP basis, firming up expectations of an October ECB rate cut and pushing EUR/USD lower towards 1.11. But further declines will likely require higher US yields.

September 26, 2024

USD, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: US data maintains positive risk sentiment
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September 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Lower initial claims and better core durable goods orders keep the USD and risky currencies on the front foot

September 24, 2024

JPY, AUD, EUR flows: USD firm early in Europe, AUD has upside potential
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September 24, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD positive and risk positive tone as China eases. AUD has upside scope

September 23, 2024

USD flows: USD up on PMIs
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September 23, 2024 1:55 PM UTC

USD firms as US PMI compares positively to Europe

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
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September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
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September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 17, 2024

USD, CAD flows: USD slightly firmer after retail sales
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September 17, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

US retial sales marginally on the firm side, underlying trend solid. Canadian CPI marginally weak. USD edges higher but focus on the Fed. 

EUR flows: EUR little affected by weak ZEW
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September 17, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

ZEW survey very weak but EUR show little reaction. Nevertheless, it does suggest some downside risks.

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Quiet overnight but some corrective pressure
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September 17, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

Current yield spreads suggest further USD losses but risk of short term USD upside correction if FOMC only cuts 25bps

September 16, 2024

USD flows: USD offered but FOMC will be key
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September 16, 2024 6:40 AM UTC

Current yield spreads suggest furtehr USD losses but FOMC will impact short term sentiment

September 13, 2024

USD flows: Michigan sentiment may moderate USD weakness
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September 13, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

A modest reocvery in the Unoversity of Michgan confidence indices may calm USD negative sentiment

USD flows: USD down as risk of a 50bp Fed cut increases
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September 13, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

Press reports that the decision on whether to cut rates 25bps or 50bps is a close call have pushed the USD lower overnight. Scope for further losses

September 12, 2024

EUR flows: Little EUR reaction to expected 25bp ECB cut
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September 12, 2024 12:24 PM UTC

ECB cut deposit rate 25bps as expected but provide little forward guidance

September 11, 2024

USD flows: USD up on stronger CPI
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September 11, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

USD gains across the board, though JPY initially sees the most weakness

September 09, 2024

USD, JPY, AUD, EUR flows: JPY slightly offered as risk recovers
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September 9, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

A better equity performance overnight has allowed some correction to recent JPY strength, but JPY still looks well supported

September 06, 2024

USD flows: Data adds to 25bps v 50bps from Fed and Hurt USD
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September 6, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

USD pushing lower post NFP.  

September 05, 2024

USD flows: ADP Hurts USD Next ISM Services
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September 5, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

Weak ADP has prompted a further leg down for the USD. 

September 04, 2024

USD flows: U.S. Equities and USD
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September 4, 2024 11:35 AM UTC

FX market will be watching U.S. equities closely in the next few days.  

USD flows: JPY leading the Way
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September 4, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

JPY bullishness remains in place. 

September 03, 2024

EUR/USD: Now for U.S. ISM Manufacturing
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September 3, 2024 9:10 AM UTC

EUR/USD drifting in Europe. 

September 02, 2024

USD flows: Consolidating at Better Levels
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September 2, 2024 1:09 PM UTC

The USD is holding at better levels in the Latam morning/European afternoon, with the U.S. and Canada on holiday. 

USD flows: Focus Shifts to Payrolls
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September 2, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

USD is trading sideways in Europe

August 29, 2024

USD flows: USD higher after data
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August 29, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

Slightly higher GDP helps the USD, but upside limited

EUR flows: EUR dips on soft German state CPI
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August 29, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

German state CPI falls more than expected in August, taking EUR/USD sub-1.11

EUR, SEK, NOK flows: SEK little changed after GDP
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August 29, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

Better than expected Swedish GDP still doesn't justify recent SEK strength

August 28, 2024

EUR, CHF, GBP flows: EUR offer, GBP and CHF staying firm, but...
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August 28, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks likely to hold clos to current levels. GBP and CHF gains may start to falter

August 26, 2024

USD flows: Small USD Recovery, But
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August 26, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

USD is gaining some ground against the EUR in early NY trading, which appears to be largely technical and a partial correction to Friday move. 

EUR flows: ECB Lane Hints at Gradual Cuts
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August 26, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Details of Lane comments shows he is still signalling easing. 

August 23, 2024

USD flows: Powell Signs September
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August 23, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

Powell is signalling a Sep cut and this has hurt the USD. 

August 22, 2024

USD flows: USD rising on better PMI
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August 22, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

USD gains as PMI rises more than expected 

EUR flows: Bouncing as EZ numbers outperform Germany
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August 22, 2024 8:23 AM UTC

EUR bounces as EZ PMI comes in above expectations despite weaker German data

EUR flows: Weaker German PMI triggers weaker EUR
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August 22, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

German PMI weaker on both services and manufacturing. EUR softens

EUR flows: Stronger French composite PMI, but..
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August 22, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

Stronger French services and weaker manufacturing. Initially EUR positive but Germany to come

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, NOK flows: Risk positive tone remains post FOMC
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August 22, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

USD remains under general pressure but AUD may be the best performer while tone remains risk positive

August 21, 2024

USD flows: Little change on employment revisions
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August 21, 2024 2:44 PM UTC

USD little changed after employment revised down 818k for the year to March 2024.

GBP, USD flows: GBP upside looking capped
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August 21, 2024 6:46 AM UTC

UK public sector borrowing highr than expected and upcoming fiscal tightening suggests some downside risks for GBP