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April 06, 2026
U.S. March ISM Services - Slower but far from weak, with inflationary pressure rising
April 6, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 54.0 is weaker than expected and down from February’s 56.1 which was the strongest since July 2022. However, March’s reading remains higher than in every month of 2025, contrasting the S and P services PMI, which on Friday was revised down to a below neutral 49.8
April 03, 2026
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm patrol is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earnin
April 01, 2026
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 1, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?
April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War. In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (
March 31, 2026
Iran War: Invasion Risks
March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf. Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation. WTI oil prices would
EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?
March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB. Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring
March 30, 2026
Markets: Short vs Long Iran War
March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms. T
March 27, 2026
Mexico: March 25bps Cut, Then September?
March 27, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Banxico decided to cut the policy rate by 25bps from 6.75% due to concerns over the economy, which could be hurt additionally by the Iran war. However, Banxico inflation forecasts are yet to reflect the shift in oil prices and the prospect of further upward revisions argue against a May or June cu
March 26, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?
March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data. We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections. But both it
March 25, 2026
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026
March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th
March 24, 2026
U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow
March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
• The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e
DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths
March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
· The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June
China Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Headwinds
March 24, 2026 7:30 AM UTC
· Our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here) is not a problem, aside from higher prices. We have pushed up our 2026 CPI forecast to 1.4% from 0.5% (higher food prices are also an issue), but as oil/gas prices come down, this suggests very subdued 2027 inflation, which we have cut
March 23, 2026
Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges
March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC
· The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here). The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in
Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces
March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC
· For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027. A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi
Iran War Scenarios Updated
March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC
· Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory. A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for
March 20, 2026
March 19, 2026
ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!
March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u
BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?
March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war. The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r
March 18, 2026
Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But
March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC
· Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war. We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow
FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP
March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki
March 17, 2026
U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue
March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC
While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue. U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c
March 16, 2026
China: Modest Bounce at Start of 2026, But
March 16, 2026 8:49 AM UTC
· Though the January-February data was better than expected, we expect high oil prices and an adverse effect from the Iran war to hurt China’s export growth. We still feel that the economy remains too dependent on high tech manufacturing and modest consumption will act as a drag on
March 12, 2026
BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?
March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC
The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change. But while the MPC as a wh
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 12, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran
March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC
• The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely. China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from
March 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots
March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w
ECB Preview (Mar 19): No Longer in a Good Place?
March 11, 2026 2:53 PM UTC
With no change in policy expected, what the ECB says is the most important aspect of the ECB meeting next week, both explicitly and implicitly via its updated forecasts (Figure 1). Both are likely to underscore that rate hikes are certainly possible if the almost inevitable inflation rise proves t
U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated
March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai
Iran War Scenarios
March 11, 2026 9:45 AM UTC
· Our central scenario (75%) remains a multi-week war in Iran. Trump loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices prompts U.S. to declare victory before end of March. Israel and Iran would most likely agree an effective ceasefire. The ceasefire would be fragile, however, as it w
March 10, 2026
Trump’s Fiscal Dominance
March 10, 2026 10:35 AM UTC
· Voting will be done by 12 FOMC members and while Kevin Warsh could mellow some centrists, 5 district Fed presidents and Barr/Jefferson are at the Fed until at least 2031. Warsh may merely bring interest rate cuts sooner from June or potentially engineer a small dip below the 3% neutra
March 09, 2026
Gulf Countries U.S. Investment Deals Risks
March 9, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Lower budget revenue and a multi-year hit to tourism and the Gulf role as air transit hubs, could see delays and reduction in some parts of the Gulf states USD3.4 trillion deals with the Trump administration. The economic effects on the U.S. would likely be small and the geopolitics b
March 06, 2026
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat
March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC
February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning
March 05, 2026
China: 4.5-5.0% GDP Growth for 2026
March 5, 2026 9:16 AM UTC
• China announced a central government budget deficit at 4% of GDP, which is the same as last year and points to only modest fiscal stimulus. Though investment was supported, consumption trade in programs were cut from Y300bln to Yuan250 and no new structural safety net for households hav
March 04, 2026
U.S. February ISM Services strength contrasts slower S&P Services PMI
March 4, 2026 3:15 PM UTC
February’s ISM services index of 56.1 from 53.8 is the strongest since July 2022 and in a stark contrast to a weaker S and P services PMI of 51.7, revised down from 52.3 to its weakest level since April 2025. The true picture probably lies somewhere between the two surveys, but averaging the two a
Markets and the Iran War
March 4, 2026 9:50 AM UTC
• The Trump administration’s objective appears to be pivoting from regime change to hurting Iran ballistic missile capabilities, which argues for a 2-4 week war rather than a prolonged war. However, the most intense missile battles will likely occur in the next one week and markets are
March 03, 2026
EZ HICP Review: Core Rate Spikes as Upside Inflation Risks Return
March 3, 2026 10:35 AM UTC
Having dropped to 1.7% in the January data, thereby matching expectations and the short-lived Sep 24 outcome, it is likely especially in view of the Middle East conflict that the headline HICP rate may not be any lower through this year and into next. Indeed, we headline rate rose 0.2 ppt to 1.9%
2025 Q4 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
March 3, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the fourth quarter
China: Yuan Appreciation; U.S. 301 Threat and 4.5-5.0% GDP Growth for 2026?
March 3, 2026 6:35 AM UTC
• The Yuan has continued to appreciate with no resistance from China authorities. Part of this is a willingness to allow a modest Yuan appreciation in the face of the huge China trade surplus and pressure from U.S./Europe/IMF and others over an undervalued Yuan, but appreciation is also des
March 02, 2026
Iran: What Length For War?
March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC
· If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism. If the war is more prolonged (ie months) then oil/gas supplies could be sque