Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025

February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti

CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13

February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin

U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates

February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

·        Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of

Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January

February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom line:  Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

As We Expected, SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75%

January 30, 2026 6:31 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on January 29 due to inflationary risks such as food prices and rise in administered costs, such as electricity prices. The MPC decision was not unanimous. We think the SARB’s (new) 3% inflation t

Sweden Riksbank Review: Stable Policy Rates for 2026

January 29, 2026 9:09 AM UTC

·       Once again the Riksbank kept policy on hold with the key policy rate left at 1.75%.  The Riksbank Board remains pleased with the data flow since its last rate cut on Sep 23, though vigilant on both sides.  The Board promise of no change for some time to come was repeated, though we

Russia GDP Growth Preview: 2025 GDP Growth Will Hit Around 1%

January 28, 2026 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, we expect Russian economy will grow by around 1.0% in 2025 as Q4 growth will likely hit 0.6%-0.7% y/y. The GDP growth figures are expected to be announced on February 6. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressi

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January

January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing

Due to Risks, CBRT Continued Easing Cycle with 100 Bps Cut on January 22

January 22, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate to 37% during the MPC meeting on January 22, indicating a cautious progress since a slower rate cut than December. With the bank committed to disinflation towards its 5% target, CBRT will likely proceed carefully on

South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December

January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe

Russia’s Inflation Decelerated Sharply in December but Risks Remain

January 16, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% y/y in November, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in December and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central

South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December

January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs

DM Government Debt: 2026 Supply & Voters’ Resistance To Fiscal Consolidation

January 14, 2026 11:55 AM UTC

·        We see the most persistent issue being supply (budget deficit + QT) in 2026, which should lessen into 2027 with a slowdown in ECB/BOE QT and a partial U turn by the BOJ.  However, governments are also struggling with electorates that are resistant to higher taxes or lower governmen

Turkiye MPC Preview: Easing Cycle Will Continue on January 22

January 12, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 36.5%-37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 22 supported by continued deceleration trend in inflation in December and relative TRY stability. CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adj

Turkiye’s Foreign Trade Deficit Increased in 2025 Despite TRY Slide

January 6, 2026 4:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary annual figures announced by the Ministry of Trade on January 6, Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit increased to USD92.2 billion in 2025 from USD82.2 billion in 2024, partly due to higher purchases of investment goods and raw materials. According to preliminar

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Turkiye Closes the Year with Inflation Easing to 30.9% y/y in December

January 5, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on January 5, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 30.9% y/y in December backed by the lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening. Food, housing and education drove the inflation in December as education prices recorde

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Easing Cycle Continues: CBR Reduced Key Rate to 16% on December 19

December 19, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key rate by 50 bps to 16% during the MPC on December 19 since the pace of the fall in inflation accelerated in November. CBR said in its written statement that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period, and further decision

December 18, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

As expected, no change in policy and little shift in rhetoric and/or outlook was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict.  After two 25 bp cuts this year (to 4.0%), this month saw a second successive unchanged verdict with the policy outlook also retained (Figure 1). This was consistent

December 18, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

As widely anticipated, the Riksbank kept policy on hold with the key rate left (again) at 1.75%.  It does seem as if the Riksbank Board is (very) pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23.  GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while p

South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

DM Rates Outlook: 2026 Yield Curve Steepening Before 2027 Flattening

December 17, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

·       Multi quarter, we still look for 50bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.35%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the assumed slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium ve

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Commodities Outlook: A Balancing Act

December 16, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Global oil demand is expected to be modest, with weak consumption in the U.S. and China, while India will support demand in 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply is expected to expand moderately in 2026, whereas OPEC’s policy will respond to demand but remains puzzling. Supply trends in 2027 are likely t

EMEA Outlook: Uncertainties Give Mixed Signals

December 16, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Upside risks to inflation remain such as, utility costs, and supply chain destructions. We see growth to be 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Risks to the growth

Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?

December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

·        The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026.  However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data.  We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a

Softer November CPI Print Encouraged CBRT to Cut Key Rate to 38% on December 11

December 11, 2025 8:54 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% during the MPC meeting on December 11 encouraged by softer November inflation. The committee said inflation expectations and pricing behavior are showing signs of improvement even as they continue to po

December 11, 2025 9:39 AM UTC

Although the tone of the economic outlook was a little perkier, the latest SNB analysis saw no real change.  Policy was unchanged, as widely expected, with little shift in the forecast fir either growth or inflation.  Overall it sees medium-term inflation at 0.6% (Figure 1), this despite a gloomy

Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November

December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue

December 10, 2025 9:17 AM UTC

No change in policy and little shift in rhetoric was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict.  After what was to some a surprise (and seemingly far from a formality) move in September, in which the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, we see no change at the loomin

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 18): Policy to be Unchanged and little Move in Projections?

December 8, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

As we anticipated in our review, the Riksbank Board will be very pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confir

SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?

December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11.  It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1).  But this will be enough to just

Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations

December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin

South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022

December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe

Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments

December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.

Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Economy will Expand by Around 4% in Q3

November 27, 2025 4:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q3 GDP growth on December 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 4.0% YoY backed by investments, strong construction and industry activities in Q3. Of course, growth figure could hit below our expectations due to the we

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to 32.0% in November

November 24, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 32.9% annually in October, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften to around 32.0% in November backed by moderate food prices while upside-tilted inflation risks continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. We foresee MoM in

Japan Aging: Consumption Lessons for Eurozone/China?

November 24, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

·       China will likely suffer slowing consumption from population aging in the coming years, as consumption per head falls for over 55’s and large scale immigration is not a likelihood. China’s household wealth is also heavily concentrated in falling illiquid residential property. Chin

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

SARB Reduced Key Rate to 6.75% Following Favorable Inflation Outlook

November 20, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 6.75% during the MPC on November 20 owing to moderate inflation, stronger ZAR, few power cuts (loadshedding) in Q3, balanced growth risks, and lower oil prices. The MPC decision was unanimous. SARB governor Kganyago ment

South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall