CBRT Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Rising Inflation Targets, and the Credibility Gap

March 31, 2026 12:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Persistent structural domestic headwinds and geopolitical volatility make the Central Bank of Turkiye’s (CBRT) inflation targets increasingly unattainable, risking a further erosion of institutional credibility. While the CBRT has recently revised its 2026 midpoint target upward (now

SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75% Due to Inflationary Risks

March 26, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on March 26 due to inflationary risks. We anticipate that a weakening rand, driven by higher oil prices and surging food costs to the war in Iran, will likely push inflation over 4% in Q2/Q3, and SA

Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish

March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC

While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable.  It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,

Commodities Outlook: The War in Action

March 24, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

Oil markets in 2026 have been extremely volatile due to the conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Under our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here), we project WTI to average between USD 65 and 70 by year-end. In an alternative scenario of a prolonged multi-month conflict, pri

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?

March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable.  It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’.  The question is whether

CBR Cuts Key Rate by 50 Bps to 15% Despite Risks

March 20, 2026 6:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite adverse global developments and proinflationary risks, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the policy rate by 50 bps to 15% on March 20 likely to stimulate the economy as it comes under increasing strain from high borrowing costs. CBR noted in its written statement that it

South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments

March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (

Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time

March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC

Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict.  However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric.  In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some

SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF

March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC

·       The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1).  The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s

CBRT Pauses Easing Cycle; Policy Rate Held at 37% Due to Surges in Oil Prices and CPI Increase in February

March 12, 2026 8:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on March 12. This decision effectively pauses the bank’s easing cycle in response to heightened market volatility and rising energy costs driven by the ongoing war in Iran. While February's

South African Economy Grew by 1.1% in 2025 Supported by Stronger Agriculture, Trade and Finance Activities

March 10, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth figures on March 10. Following a revised 0.3% q/q expansion in Q3, the economy grew by 0.4% q/q (0.8% y/y) in Q4. For the full year, the economy expanded by 1.1%—its fastest pace in three years—supporte

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 19): On Hold and Still For Some Time Ahead?

March 10, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

It is highly likely that the Riksbank will (again) keep policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% when it gives its next verdict.  However, what will be more important is what the Board says; explicitly in terms of the recent (less pleasing to it) data flow and, implicitly in terms of updated

Inflation Edged Up to 31.5% y/y in February as Monthly Pressures Persist

March 3, 2026 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced February inflation figures on March 3.  After hitting 30.7% annually in January, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 31.5% in February due to rising food, transportation and housing prices. Our average inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 2

Turkish Economy Grew by 3.6% y/y in 2025

March 2, 2026 9:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth for 2025 on March 2. Turkish economy expanded by 3.6% y/y in 2025 (3.4% y/y in Q4), underpinned by domestic demand while the main drag came from net trade as annual exports of goods and services declined

Low Inflation and No Loadshedding Continue to Support South African GDP Growth

February 26, 2026 3:19 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q4 2025 GDP growth figures on March 3. Following a 0.5% q/q expansion in Q3 2025, we expect growth momentum to be sustained in Q4. This trajectory is supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, a power cuts (

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30% in February

February 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.7% annually in January, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30% in February as upside-tilted inflation risks and high inflation expectations will continue to limit the downward trend coupled with rising food prices due to the Ramada

Switzerland: An Alternative Insight into Current Franc Strength!

February 20, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

The increasing strength in the Swiss France is causing reverberations.  More a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness than that of the euro, the nominal trade weighted Franc is hitting new highs (Figure 1).  But while this strength in impairing competitiveness – vital to an economy where exports acc

Turkish Economy Will Likely Grow by Around 3.8% in 2025

February 18, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) is scheduled to announce Q4 2024 and full-year GDP growth on March 2. We expect the Turkish economy expanded by approximately 3.8% y/y in 2025, underpinned by resilient household consumption, investment, and ongoing construction projects. Domesti

South Africa Inflation Moderately Eased to 3.5% y/y in January

February 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on February 18 that annual inflation slightly edged down moderately to 3.5% y/y in January, driven by higher housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Annual core inflation came in at 3.4%

VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January

February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been

Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks

February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the

Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025

February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti

CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13

February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin

U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates

February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

·        Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of

Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January

February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom line:  Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

As We Expected, SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75%

January 30, 2026 6:31 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on January 29 due to inflationary risks such as food prices and rise in administered costs, such as electricity prices. The MPC decision was not unanimous. We think the SARB’s (new) 3% inflation t

Sweden Riksbank Review: Stable Policy Rates for 2026

January 29, 2026 9:09 AM UTC

·       Once again the Riksbank kept policy on hold with the key policy rate left at 1.75%.  The Riksbank Board remains pleased with the data flow since its last rate cut on Sep 23, though vigilant on both sides.  The Board promise of no change for some time to come was repeated, though we

Russia GDP Growth Preview: 2025 GDP Growth Will Hit Around 1%

January 28, 2026 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, we expect Russian economy will grow by around 1.0% in 2025 as Q4 growth will likely hit 0.6%-0.7% y/y. The GDP growth figures are expected to be announced on February 6. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressi

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January

January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing

Due to Risks, CBRT Continued Easing Cycle with 100 Bps Cut on January 22

January 22, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate to 37% during the MPC meeting on January 22, indicating a cautious progress since a slower rate cut than December. With the bank committed to disinflation towards its 5% target, CBRT will likely proceed carefully on

South Africa Inflation Moderately Surged to 3.6% y/y in December

January 21, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on January 21 that annual inflation edged up moderately to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% the previous month due to higher housing and utilities; and insurance and financial services prices. The change in the consumer price index (CPI) betwe

Russia’s Inflation Decelerated Sharply in December but Risks Remain

January 16, 2026 7:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% y/y in November, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in December and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central

South Africa Inflation Preview: Inflation is Expected to Hover Around 3.5% y/y in December

January 15, 2026 2:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 3.5% YoY in November, we foresee inflation will stand around 3.5% y/y in December supported by suspended power cuts (loadshedding), stronger Rand (ZAR), and decrease in inflation expectations. Lower international food prices and slightly elevated fuel costs

DM Government Debt: 2026 Supply & Voters’ Resistance To Fiscal Consolidation

January 14, 2026 11:55 AM UTC

·        We see the most persistent issue being supply (budget deficit + QT) in 2026, which should lessen into 2027 with a slowdown in ECB/BOE QT and a partial U turn by the BOJ.  However, governments are also struggling with electorates that are resistant to higher taxes or lower governmen

Turkiye MPC Preview: Easing Cycle Will Continue on January 22

January 12, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 36.5%-37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for January 22 supported by continued deceleration trend in inflation in December and relative TRY stability. CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adj

Turkiye’s Foreign Trade Deficit Increased in 2025 Despite TRY Slide

January 6, 2026 4:49 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary annual figures announced by the Ministry of Trade on January 6, Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit increased to USD92.2 billion in 2025 from USD82.2 billion in 2024, partly due to higher purchases of investment goods and raw materials. According to preliminar

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Turkiye Closes the Year with Inflation Easing to 30.9% y/y in December

January 5, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on January 5, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 30.9% y/y in December backed by the lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening. Food, housing and education drove the inflation in December as education prices recorde

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Easing Cycle Continues: CBR Reduced Key Rate to 16% on December 19

December 19, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key rate by 50 bps to 16% during the MPC on December 19 since the pace of the fall in inflation accelerated in November. CBR said in its written statement that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period, and further decision

December 18, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

As expected, no change in policy and little shift in rhetoric and/or outlook was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict.  After two 25 bp cuts this year (to 4.0%), this month saw a second successive unchanged verdict with the policy outlook also retained (Figure 1). This was consistent