SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Norges Bank hikes by 25bp

September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC

Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

Riksbank: December Hike

September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

·       The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important.  It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect.  This would also avoid too much Swedi

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship

September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative

Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears

September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

·       For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year.  Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027

QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

U.S. Equity-Treasury Strains and Correction Risk

September 9, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Equity investors have taken note of higher U.S. Treasury yields, but the influence of the AI boom and corporate earnings is greater.  Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market valuation means that it is stretched currently versus the U.S. Treasury market and could be hurt by moderate bad

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

September 7, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Our new baseline (60%) is for a new ceasefire deal into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 that allows more shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We feel that economic pressure on Iran remains intense and that Iran will want to lift the U.S. blockade on its energy shipments and export revenue.  The Trump

DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins

August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years.  This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

Ghana Country Risk Rating

July 24, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Overall risk in Yemen remains at a medium rating.

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks

July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning. 
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June

June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Commodities Outlook: The War and Its Reversal

June 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

The US-Iran memorandum marks a turn, but a fragile one. We attach 80% probability to the Strait of Hormuz reopening over June/July and staying open through 2027, and 20% to a second-half reclosure if Israel-Hezbollah tensions draw Iran back in (here). Most of the war premium has already unwound, and

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

CBR Extends Easing Cycle but Slows Pace Amid Global Inflation Risks

June 19, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following 50 bps rate cut on April 24—driven by the disinflationary trend in H1— the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) extended its easing cycle on June 19. However, the bank opted for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction, lowering the key rate from 14.5% to 14.25% citing mounting global i

Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May

June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha

Norges Bank Review (Jun 18): Higher Rates Then Down?

June 18, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

The June Norges bank statement had a hawkish bias with a higher policy rate profile than in March MPR (Figure 1) and concerns voiced again over persistent domestic inflation pressures.  The Norges bank appear ready to move in September or November.  However, the Iran/U.S. deal impact on energy pri

SNB: Holding Steady on Rates

June 18, 2026 7:54 AM UTC

The June quarterly assessment saw little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation (Figure 1), with the tone of the economic outlook remained guarded due to concerns over the Iran war on the global economy (forecasts though look to have been completed before the U.S. Iran deal).   With

Sweden Riksbank Review: Mild Tightening Bias Persist but We Don’t See it Exercised?

June 17, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

Not only at the meeting this, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets and the Board are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it did bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it pr

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux

June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario.   In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts.  10yr

CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Despite Inflationary Risks

June 11, 2026 3:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on June 11 despite inflationary risks as economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. CBRT stated in its written stat

Swiss SNB Preview (Jun 18): Still Keeping a Low Profile

June 11, 2026 6:33 AM UTC

Once again and in line with consensus thinking we see SNB policy being unchanged (ie the policy rate remaining at zero) when it gives its next quarterly assessment this month with little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation.  Admittedly, the tone of the economic outlook will remain

Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023

June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?

June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p

Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question

June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·      Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD

South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1

June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne

Norges Bank Preview (Jun 18): Forecast Update the Key

June 9, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh last month by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.  Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in subsequent next couple of months

DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?

June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

·        Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled.  Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non

Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices

June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5.  After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will

Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1

June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted

SARB Hikes Policy Rate to 7.0% Amid Rising Geopolitical and Inflation Risks

May 28, 2026 4:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened on May 28, and announced that it hiked the key rate by 25 bps to 7.0%. This decision was driven by mounting upside risks to price stability, most notably the conflict in Iran, a volatile rand, and rising headline