AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June

June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Commodities Outlook: The War and Its Reversal

June 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

The US-Iran memorandum marks a turn, but a fragile one. We attach 80% probability to the Strait of Hormuz reopening over June/July and staying open through 2027, and 20% to a second-half reclosure if Israel-Hezbollah tensions draw Iran back in (here). Most of the war premium has already unwound, and

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

CBR Extends Easing Cycle but Slows Pace Amid Global Inflation Risks

June 19, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following 50 bps rate cut on April 24—driven by the disinflationary trend in H1— the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) extended its easing cycle on June 19. However, the bank opted for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction, lowering the key rate from 14.5% to 14.25% citing mounting global i

Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May

June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha

Norges Bank Review (Jun 18): Higher Rates Then Down?

June 18, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

The June Norges bank statement had a hawkish bias with a higher policy rate profile than in March MPR (Figure 1) and concerns voiced again over persistent domestic inflation pressures.  The Norges bank appear ready to move in September or November.  However, the Iran/U.S. deal impact on energy pri

SNB: Holding Steady on Rates

June 18, 2026 7:54 AM UTC

The June quarterly assessment saw little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation (Figure 1), with the tone of the economic outlook remained guarded due to concerns over the Iran war on the global economy (forecasts though look to have been completed before the U.S. Iran deal).   With

Sweden Riksbank Review: Mild Tightening Bias Persist but We Don’t See it Exercised?

June 17, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

Not only at the meeting this, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets and the Board are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it did bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it pr

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

Fed Tightening and U.S. Treasury Yields: 1994, 1999 and 2022 Redux

June 12, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Our baseline involves no Fed hike, but 50-75bps is feasible in a plausible adverse scenario.   In this alternative scenario of 50-75bps of Fed tightening it is easy to build the case for 2yr yields going to 4.30-4.40% area, before thoughts turn to H2 2027/28 involving modest Fed rate cuts.  10yr

CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Despite Inflationary Risks

June 11, 2026 3:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on June 11 despite inflationary risks as economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. CBRT stated in its written stat

Swiss SNB Preview (Jun 18): Still Keeping a Low Profile

June 11, 2026 6:33 AM UTC

Once again and in line with consensus thinking we see SNB policy being unchanged (ie the policy rate remaining at zero) when it gives its next quarterly assessment this month with little shift in the forecasts for either growth or inflation.  Admittedly, the tone of the economic outlook will remain

Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023

June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 17): Mild Tightening Bias to Persist But Not Exercised?

June 10, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Not only at the meeting next week, we still see stable policy though to end-2027 rather than the small hikes markets are now pricing for late 2026. A similar profile has been offered by the Riksbank since last autumn (Figure 1) and it may decide to bring forward its first hike hint a touch when it p

Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question

June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·      Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD

South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1

June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne

Norges Bank Preview (Jun 18): Forecast Update the Key

June 9, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh last month by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.  Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in subsequent next couple of months

DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?

June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

·        Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled.  Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non

Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices

June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5.  After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will

Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1

June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted

SARB Hikes Policy Rate to 7.0% Amid Rising Geopolitical and Inflation Risks

May 28, 2026 4:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened on May 28, and announced that it hiked the key rate by 25 bps to 7.0%. This decision was driven by mounting upside risks to price stability, most notably the conflict in Iran, a volatile rand, and rising headline

CHP Leadership Crisis Threatens Disinflation Trajectory in Turkiye

May 26, 2026 11:20 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Political tensions remain high in Turkiye after the 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice annulled the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) 2023 leadership congress on May 21, 2026. The ruling removed elected CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel from his leadership posit

Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics

May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC

 A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a

South Africa MPC Preview: Close Call on May 28

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April due to higher energy and transportation prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely consider hiking the rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the next MPC scheduled on May 28 given plenty of upside risks

South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April

May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla

CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures

May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the

Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April

May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp

Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism

May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.  Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though

Sweden Riksbank Review: Fresh Tightening Bias But Mildly So?

May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook.  Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been

April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures

May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4.   After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin

Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?

May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC

The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months.  While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook

Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo

Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time

April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no

8th Consecutive Cut: CBR Reduced the Rate to 14.5% Despite Risks

April 24, 2026 5:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—the CBR continued its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. CBR maintained a cautious tone on inflation and future pol

South Africa Inflation Hit 3.1% y/y in March but Pressures Signal Looming Spike

April 23, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, South Africa’s inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in March. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6% and the main drivers behind the rise were housing, utilities and financial services. The surge was driven by a combinat

CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Due to Inflationary Risks

April 23, 2026 9:46 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on April 22 due to inflationary risks as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. We think fragile cease-fire

Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026

April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

·       Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,

CBR Will Likely Cut the Rate to 14.5% on April 24 Despite Risks

April 16, 2026 1:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—we expect the CBR to continue its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. Our year-end key rate forecast is 13% for 2026

Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March

April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st

Turkiye MPC Preview: Key Rate Will Likely Be Held Constant on April 22 MPC

April 15, 2026 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely hold the policy rate stable at 37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for April 22 due to inflationary risks as both geopolitical uncertainties and domestic dynamics remain significant risk factors for the inflation outlook. Our end-year

As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March

April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev

Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated

April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi