South Africa MPC Preview: Close Call on May 28

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April due to higher energy and transportation prices, we think South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely consider hiking the rate by 25 bps to 7.0% during the next MPC scheduled on May 28 given plenty of upside risks

South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April

May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla

CBRT Hiked its End-Year Inflation Forecast to 26% Amid Economic Pressures

May 14, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 14, and hiked its end-year inflation target to 26% for 2026, 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028 citing the impact of the war in the region, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty over the

Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April

May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp

Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism

May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.  Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though

Sweden Riksbank Review: Fresh Tightening Bias But Mildly So?

May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook.  Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been

April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures

May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4.   After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin

Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?

May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC

The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months.  While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook

Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April

April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo

Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time

April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no

8th Consecutive Cut: CBR Reduced the Rate to 14.5% Despite Risks

April 24, 2026 5:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—the CBR continued its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. CBR maintained a cautious tone on inflation and future pol

South Africa Inflation Hit 3.1% y/y in March but Pressures Signal Looming Spike

April 23, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, South Africa’s inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in March. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6% and the main drivers behind the rise were housing, utilities and financial services. The surge was driven by a combinat

CBRT Kept Key Rate Constant at 37% Due to Inflationary Risks

April 23, 2026 9:46 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held the policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on April 22 due to inflationary risks as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. We think fragile cease-fire

Equities: Still a Rocky Road in 2026

April 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

·       Any deal between the U.S. and Iran would still be seen as a positive win in equities, as it would raise hopes that it could be followed by a multi-year settlement that could include more Iran oil and gas into the global energy markets and lower energy prices. No deal is also feasible,

CBR Will Likely Cut the Rate to 14.5% on April 24 Despite Risks

April 16, 2026 1:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut on March 20—driven by the disinflationary trend in Q1—we expect the CBR to continue its easing cycle on April 24 reducing the rate from 15.0% to 14.5% despite inflationary risks. Our year-end key rate forecast is 13% for 2026

Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rand will Likely Push South Africa Inflation to Around 3.8% y/y in March

April 16, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, we project that the March print will rise to approximately 3.8% y/y. This anticipated surge is driven by a combination of higher energy costs, a weaker Rand (ZAR), rising food prices, and elevated fertilizer costs—st

Turkiye MPC Preview: Key Rate Will Likely Be Held Constant on April 22 MPC

April 15, 2026 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely hold the policy rate stable at 37% during the MPC meeting scheduled for April 22 due to inflationary risks as both geopolitical uncertainties and domestic dynamics remain significant risk factors for the inflation outlook. Our end-year

As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March

April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev

Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated

April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi

Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March

April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla

Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March

April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno

CBRT Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Rising Inflation Targets, and the Credibility Gap

March 31, 2026 12:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Persistent structural domestic headwinds and geopolitical volatility make the Central Bank of Turkiye’s (CBRT) inflation targets increasingly unattainable, risking a further erosion of institutional credibility. While the CBRT has recently revised its 2026 midpoint target upward (now

SARB Kept the Key Rate Stable at 6.75% Due to Inflationary Risks

March 26, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% during the MPC on March 26 due to inflationary risks. We anticipate that a weakening rand, driven by higher oil prices and surging food costs to the war in Iran, will likely push inflation over 4% in Q2/Q3, and SA

Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish

March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC

While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable.  It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,

Commodities Outlook: The War in Action

March 24, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

Oil markets in 2026 have been extremely volatile due to the conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Under our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here), we project WTI to average between USD 65 and 70 by year-end. In an alternative scenario of a prolonged multi-month conflict, pri

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?

March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable.  It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’.  The question is whether

CBR Cuts Key Rate by 50 Bps to 15% Despite Risks

March 20, 2026 6:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite adverse global developments and proinflationary risks, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the policy rate by 50 bps to 15% on March 20 likely to stimulate the economy as it comes under increasing strain from high borrowing costs. CBR noted in its written statement that it

South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments

March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (

Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time

March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC

Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict.  However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric.  In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some

SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF

March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC

·       The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1).  The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s

CBRT Pauses Easing Cycle; Policy Rate Held at 37% Due to Surges in Oil Prices and CPI Increase in February

March 12, 2026 8:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate constant at 37% during the MPC meeting on March 12. This decision effectively pauses the bank’s easing cycle in response to heightened market volatility and rising energy costs driven by the ongoing war in Iran. While February's

South African Economy Grew by 1.1% in 2025 Supported by Stronger Agriculture, Trade and Finance Activities

March 10, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth figures on March 10. Following a revised 0.3% q/q expansion in Q3, the economy grew by 0.4% q/q (0.8% y/y) in Q4. For the full year, the economy expanded by 1.1%—its fastest pace in three years—supporte

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 19): On Hold and Still For Some Time Ahead?

March 10, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

It is highly likely that the Riksbank will (again) keep policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% when it gives its next verdict.  However, what will be more important is what the Board says; explicitly in terms of the recent (less pleasing to it) data flow and, implicitly in terms of updated

Inflation Edged Up to 31.5% y/y in February as Monthly Pressures Persist

March 3, 2026 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced February inflation figures on March 3.  After hitting 30.7% annually in January, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 31.5% in February due to rising food, transportation and housing prices. Our average inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 2

Turkish Economy Grew by 3.6% y/y in 2025

March 2, 2026 9:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q4 2025 and full-year GDP growth for 2025 on March 2. Turkish economy expanded by 3.6% y/y in 2025 (3.4% y/y in Q4), underpinned by domestic demand while the main drag came from net trade as annual exports of goods and services declined

Low Inflation and No Loadshedding Continue to Support South African GDP Growth

February 26, 2026 3:19 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q4 2025 GDP growth figures on March 3. Following a 0.5% q/q expansion in Q3 2025, we expect growth momentum to be sustained in Q4. This trajectory is supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, a power cuts (

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30% in February

February 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.7% annually in January, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30% in February as upside-tilted inflation risks and high inflation expectations will continue to limit the downward trend coupled with rising food prices due to the Ramada

Switzerland: An Alternative Insight into Current Franc Strength!

February 20, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

The increasing strength in the Swiss France is causing reverberations.  More a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness than that of the euro, the nominal trade weighted Franc is hitting new highs (Figure 1).  But while this strength in impairing competitiveness – vital to an economy where exports acc

Turkish Economy Will Likely Grow by Around 3.8% in 2025

February 18, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) is scheduled to announce Q4 2024 and full-year GDP growth on March 2. We expect the Turkish economy expanded by approximately 3.8% y/y in 2025, underpinned by resilient household consumption, investment, and ongoing construction projects. Domesti

South Africa Inflation Moderately Eased to 3.5% y/y in January

February 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on February 18 that annual inflation slightly edged down moderately to 3.5% y/y in January, driven by higher housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Annual core inflation came in at 3.4%

VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January

February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been

Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks

February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the

Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025

February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti