Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY

September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de

Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues

August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for

South Africa’s Inflation is Expected to Continue its Downward Trend in July

August 14, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation, we now foresee that the downward trend will continue in July and CPI will further slow down to 4.9% - 5.0% Yr/Yr given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR), fall

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia

August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re

Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity

August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY

August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti

CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast Unchanged at 38%

August 8, 2024 12:00 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its third quarterly inflation report of the year on August 8, and did not change its inflation forecasts and policy guidance. CBRT projects that inflation will fall to 38% at the end of 2024, and kept its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1

Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Cooled Off to 61.8% in July

August 5, 2024 10:39 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June, down from 75.5% in May, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 61.8% y/y in July. As we expected, favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures, and relative Tur

Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start

August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Cool Down in July

August 1, 2024 4:52 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June, down from 75.5% in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 64-67% y/y in July. We predict favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures, and relat

Rally Continues: Russian Economy Expands by 3% YoY in June

August 1, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3% YoY in June after expanding by a strong 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven by a significant increase in military spending

South Africa’s Load Shedding Suspended for 121 Consecutive Days, but Risks Remain Alive

July 30, 2024 3:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line:  Despite power cuts (load shedding) was a major headwind for South African economy in Q1, it appears the situation got better in Q2 as Eskom announced on July 26 that load shedding remained suspended for 121 consecutive days since March 26 reflecting an improvement in the reliability a

South Africa’s Inflation Slightly Eased to %5.1 YoY in June

July 24, 2024 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on July 24, CPI marginally decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation coupled with suspended power cuts (load shedding) in June. The inflatio

Turkiye’s Current Account Deficit: Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Succour

July 12, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficit (CAD) stood at $25.2 billion as of May 2024, marking its lowest level since June 2022, down from $31.7 billion a month earlier driven by strong services income and improving foreign trade balance, supported by accelerated capital inflows. W

South Africa: Parliament to Open on July 18

July 11, 2024 9:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a government of national unity (GNU) along with other smaller parties, and president Ramaphosa announced the cabinet on June 30, South Africa should now quickly turn its attention to economic urgencies. The parlia

Russia’s Inflation Continued Its Rally in June: 8.6% YoY

July 10, 2024 6:51 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on July 10, inflation jumped to 8.6% YoY in June after hitting 8.3% YoY in May, the highest reading since February 2023, due to strong military spending, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. The ne

Russian Economy Expands by 4.5% YoY in May

July 5, 2024 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven in part by a significant increase in military spending due to intensified Russian offensive operation

Turkiye’s Inflation Slowed for the First Time in 8 Months: 71.6% in June

July 3, 2024 5:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that Turkish CPI cooled to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June partly supported by the ease in energy and food prices in June compared to a month earlier. As we predicted, favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal

Coalition’s Determination will be Key for Narrowing South Africa’s Current Account Deficit

July 1, 2024 10:32 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Current account deficits (CAD) continue to be a major headwind for South African economy ignited by logistical constraints, power cuts (load shedding), and weaker external demand especially from China and the EU. We think CA will be still bolstered by a trade surplus in H2 2024, support

EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

South Africa’s Inflation Stayed Stable at 5.2% in May

June 19, 2024 10:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on June 19, the inflation held steady at 5.2% YoY in May, unchanged from April due to suspended power cuts (load shedding) coupled with unchanged food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) pr

South Africa: ANC-DA-IFP-PA Coalition Will Run the Government

June 17, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a government of national unity (GNU) with the ANC-lead on June 14, along with two smaller opposition parties, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Patriotic Alliance (PA). Lawmakers voted to put former presi

Russia’s Inflation Continued to Surge in May: 8.3% YoY

June 14, 2024 5:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on June 14, inflation surged to 8.3% YoY in May after hitting 7.8% YoY in April, the highest since February 2023, due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic dem

Turkiye’s Inflation Hits 75.5% in May

June 3, 2024 11:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 75.5% annually and 3.4% monthly in May due to increases in education, housing, restaurant & hotel prices. We foresee favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prud

South Africa Elections: A Coalition Government is on the Horizon

May 31, 2024 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom line: As we forecasted in our previous pieces, it seems a coalition government with an ANC-lead will be formed following the presidential elections on May 29, according to the preliminary results. It is very likely that ANC will be losing its majority dipping below 50% as it is currently the

Turkish Economy Grew by a Strong 5.7% in Q1

May 31, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 31 that Turkish economy expanded by 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand, invigorated private consumption and government spending. Despite strong Q1 figure, we expect the pace of the GDP growth to decelerate in the rest of 2024 du

Support to ANC is on the Rise

May 23, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

Bottom line: We continue to foresee two possible outcomes of South African presidential elections on May 29, either an African National Congress (ANC) win (40% probability) or a coalition government (60% probability). According to recent polls, ANC continues to be at the risk of losing its majority

South Africa’s Inflation Softened to 5.2% in April, the Lowest Reading in Four Months

May 22, 2024 10:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on May 22, the inflation eased to 5.2% YoY in April down from 5.3% in March due to less severe power cuts (load shedding), a firmer South African rand (ZAR) coupled with lower food and no

Watts at Stake: India's Looming Power Shortage

May 13, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

India's power sector faces rising demand and power shortages, sparking fears of the most significant power shortfall in a decade. With coal imports continuing to rise and hydropower generation declining, India's aim to become a manufacturing hub could become challenging. Energy transition is likely

CBRT Lifts End-Year Inflation Forecast to 38%

May 9, 2024 10:22 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released the second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 9, and lifted end-year inflation prediction from 36% to 38% citing that the rebalancing process for demand will be more delayed compared to what was projected that in the first inflation rep

Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid

May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti

Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

Russian Economy Expands by 4.2% YoY in March, and 5.4% in Q1

May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024

Turkiye’s Inflation Continues to Jump in April with 69.8%

May 3, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 69.8% annually and 3.2% monthly in April due to increases in transportation, restaurant & hotel and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the wage hikes on the services sector. We feel u

South Africa’s Fiscal Outlook Under Spotlights as the Elections Are Approaching

May 1, 2024 6:45 PM UTC

Bottom line: South Africa policy makers remain concerned about government debt trajectory, large domestic and international financing needs and elevated country risk premium before fast-approaching elections on May 29. We think South Africa’s general government fiscal balance and debt trajectory w

Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth

April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies.  While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a

Sticky Inflation Causes Concerns over the Horizon

April 24, 2024 9:26 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 23, the risk of higher inflation still remains and inflation returning to the midpoint of the target band is only expected in the last quarter of 2025. SARB highlighted in its report that ma

EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

April 22, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Recent Polls in South Africa: ANC’s Popularity Continues to Decline

April 19, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom line: We continue to foresee two possible outcomes of South African presidential elections on May 29, either an African National Congress (ANC) win or a coalition government. According to recent polls, ANC is at the serious risk of losing its majority dipping below 50%, even as low as 37% acc

Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Partly Heal Turkish Current Account Deficit

April 19, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficits (CAD) stood at $31.8 billion as of February 2024 when compared to $37.6 billion a month earlier, driven by a marginal increase in the services surplus, a reduction in the gold trade deficit, and a recovery in net energy trade. We envisage

South Africa’s Inflation Softened to 5.3% in March

April 17, 2024 11:38 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on April 17, the inflation softened to 5.3% YoY in March from a four-month high of 5.6% YoY due to lower food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), alcoholic beverages & tobacco, transporta

Russian Economy Expands by a Strong 7.7% YoY in February

April 11, 2024 7:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 7.7% YoY in February after expanding by 4.6% in January, owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We foresee R

Russia’s Inflation Remained Steady at 7.7% in March

April 10, 2024 8:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After hitting 7.4% YoY in January and December, the inflation rate remained stable at a one-year peak of 7.7% YoY in March after February. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening particularly after March 11, tight labour

Turkiye’s March Inflation Ticks Up to 68.5% Despite Continued Tightening

April 3, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that Turkish CPI surged to 68.5% annually and 3.2% monthly in March, and annual inflation swung to a 16-month high due to increases in food and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the minimum wage hike on the

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

South Africa’s Inflation Hits 4-Months High in February

March 20, 2024 1:37 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on March 20, the inflation jumped to 5.6% YoY in February due to higher housing & utilities, miscellaneous goods & services, food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport prices, couple

Russian Presidential Election: Putin Moves Towards His Fifth Term in Kremlin

March 15, 2024 10:29 AM UTC

Bottom line: We foresee two possible outcomes of Russian presidential election on March 15-17, either a Putin win (99%) or a second round on April 7 (1%), despite the latter has a very small chance to occur. We think Putin will secure his fifth term in Kremlin despite there are alleged concerns that