Optimistic CBR Publishes Summary of Key Rate Decision on May 12

May 12, 2025 5:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of the key rate decision on May 12, showing CBR’s views on economic developments. CBR highlighted in its report that “The current inflationary pressures eased in Q1, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pa

Indonesia’s Q1 GDP Disappoints, Deepening Case for Rate Cut

May 8, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q1 GDP growth slipped to 4.87% yr/yr, missing the 5% target as public spending declined. Household consumption edged down and fixed investment declined sharply. Looking ahead, Q2 may bring further softening. 

South Africa’s Automotive and Agricultural Sectors Will Be Tested Amid Trump’s Additional Tariffs

May 6, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that the 31% U.S. additional tariffs on South African goods could still come into effect despite a 90-day reprieve from the U.S. president Trump, the threat is still alive as South African economy will be negatively impacted by tariffs partly nullifying the African G

Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through

May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April

April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect

The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine Seems No Close

April 28, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We have lowered a Russia-friendly peace deal following a cease-fire to 50% probability but have increased the alternative scenario of war continues to 50% probability in Ukraine as negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue slowly. In the former scenario, we envisage Russia will co

South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March

April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar

Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%

April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o

SARB's Monetary Policy Review Highlights Concerns over the Horizon

April 15, 2025 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 15, uncertainties about the global economy, trade tensions and blurry domestic outlook have caused the scope for monetary policy easing had narrowed. In its biannual review of its monetary p

Indonesia's Strategy to Counter US Tariffs

April 14, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Facing a potential 32% tariff from the US, Indonesia has launched a multi-pronged strategy to fortify trade relations and ease market access for American giants like Apple and Microsoft. The government plans to lower domestic content requirements and introduce fiscal incentives to attract US investm

Soaring Inflation Hits Two-Year High in March with 10.3% YoY

April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Strong Consumption Continues to Drive Turkiye's GDP Growth

April 11, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish economy expanded by 3.2% YoY in 2024 backed by strong private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates. After Q2 2023, Q4 2024 marked the highest quarterly reading with 1.7% QoQ surge, which stemmed from turnaround in private consumption that

EMEA Economies Will Be Tested Amid U.S. Tariff Heat

April 7, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The impacts of U.S. additional tariffs announced on April 2 could likely have multifaceted impacts over EMEA countries. Relatively-low 10% tariffs could open new doors for Turkiye to capture a higher global market share if it can act quickly on trade diversification. We foresee the coun

Jakarta Under Pressure: U.S. Imposes 32% Tariff on Indonesian Exports

April 7, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

The U.S. has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, citing structural trade imbalances, local content rules, and restricted market access for American firms. The move puts pressure on Indonesia’s key export sectors such as footwear, electronics, and apparel. Jakarta has opted for diplomacy ov

Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025

April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet

Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March

April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont

The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine is Tested

April 1, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue, we foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probability) in Ukraine could be sealed in 9-12 months following a cease-fire under current circumstances. In this scenario, we envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around fo

Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t

SA MPC Preview: 25 bps Rate Cut on March 20 is Likely, But a Very Close Call Due to Uncertainties

March 14, 2025 8:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation in January stood at 3.2% in January, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remai

Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Third Straight Cut: CBRT Reduced the Key Rate to 42.5%

March 6, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation softened more-than-expectations to 39.1% in February, the lowest in 20 months, the easing cycle continued on March 6 as Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 42.5%. The decision was supported by domestic demand remaining at disinflationary

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.6% in Q4

March 4, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew modestly by 0.6% YoY in Q4 2024 driven by strong performances by agricultural sector and finance. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on March 4, demand side of the economy was lifted by household consumption expenditu

Turkiye’s Inflation Decelerated More Than Expectations in February, Now Below 40% YoY

March 3, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 3 that the inflation softened to 39.1% y/y in February from 42.1% y/y in January. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than-expected hike in minimum wage in January contin

As Predicted, Turkiye's 2024 GDP Growth Hit 3.2% YoY

February 28, 2025 12:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 28 that Turkish economy expanded by 3.0% in Q4 2024, and 3.2% YoY in full-year 2024, backed by accelerated private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates.

South Africa's Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.2% in January

February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global

Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Continue Decelerating in January

January 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 44.4% annually in December, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 41-42% y/y in January, which will be announced on February 3. We think lagged impacts of monetary tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than expected hike in

Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

SA Inflation Review: Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.0% in December

January 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on January 22 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.0% in December from 2.9% YoY in November due to housing costs and miscellaneous goods and services, which ticked up 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global econo

SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December

January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th

Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY

January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t

Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Trump Tariffs, China +1 and Growth

December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.  
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts in 2025 Despite Global Uncertainties

December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.  We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab

Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January

December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be

RBI Decision Review: RBI Balances Inflation and Growth with Neutral Policy

December 7, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% but unexpectedly cut the CRR by 50 basis points to inject ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system. Growth forecasts for FY2025 were revised down to 6.6%, while inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. This cautious approach reflects the central bank’s fo