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February 17, 2025

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

February 13, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

February 10, 2025

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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

February 07, 2025

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Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

February 03, 2025

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Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

January 29, 2025

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Continue Decelerating in January
Paying Article

January 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 44.4% annually in December, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 41-42% y/y in January, which will be announced on February 3. We think lagged impacts of monetary tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than expected hike in

January 27, 2025

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Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown
Paying Article

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

January 22, 2025

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SA Inflation Review: Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.0% in December
Paying Article

January 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on January 22 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.0% in December from 2.9% YoY in November due to housing costs and miscellaneous goods and services, which ticked up 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global econo

January 17, 2025

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SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December
Paying Article

January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th

January 15, 2025

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Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes
Paying Article

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

January 10, 2025

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Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

January 03, 2025

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Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY
Paying Article

January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t

December 29, 2024

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Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November
Paying Article

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

December 19, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Trump Tariffs, China +1 and Growth
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.  
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices

December 17, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts in 2025 Despite Global Uncertainties
Paying Article

December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.  We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab

December 12, 2024

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Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
Paying Article

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

December 11, 2024

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SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January
Paying Article

December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be

December 07, 2024

RBI Decision Review: RBI Balances Inflation and Growth with Neutral Policy
Paying Article

December 7, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% but unexpectedly cut the CRR by 50 basis points to inject ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system. Growth forecasts for FY2025 were revised down to 6.6%, while inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. This cautious approach reflects the central bank’s fo

December 04, 2024

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South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3
Paying Article

December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)

December 03, 2024

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Inflation Falls Less Than Expectations in November: 47.1% YoY
Freemium Article

December 3, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation was higher than expected at 47.1% annually in November as food prices and housing costs continued to build. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in December and in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, but the extent of the dec

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RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite

November 29, 2024

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Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

November 26, 2024

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

November 15, 2024

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SARB MPC Preview: Easing Cycle to Continue on November 21
Paying Article

November 15, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the key rate to 8.0% on September 19 following seven consecutive meetings at a 15-year peak of 8.25% given that September inflation hit below the midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, power cuts (loadshedding) are suspended and inflation expecta

November 13, 2024

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Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October
Freemium Article

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

November 11, 2024

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Imports Surge, Growth Slows: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP Falls Short of 5% Mark
Paying Article

November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening. 

November 07, 2024

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CBR’s October MPC Summary Signals Another Rate Hike in December
Paying Article

November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of October MPC meeting on November 6, and signaled another rate hike in December by noting that “While a rate hike at the next meeting is not predetermined, the probability is very high,” which can be associated with elevated inflat

November 04, 2024

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Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY
Paying Article

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

October 31, 2024

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Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

October 30, 2024

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Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Foresees Wider Budget Deficit but a Better Growth Prospect
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government announced its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 30, setting government policy goals and forecasts over the next three years. According to MTBPS, South African Treasury sees consolidated deficit at 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in

October 28, 2024

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BRICS Summit 2024: Kazan Declaration not a Game Changer
Freemium Article

October 28, 2024 11:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The BRICS Summit, which was held in Kazan on October 22-24, was the first summit following BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Despite expectations, Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-chan

October 23, 2024

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Deceleration Trend Continues: South Africa’s Inflation Cooled to 3.8% YoY in September
Paying Article

October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account

October 18, 2024

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South Africa: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to be Announced on October 30
Paying Article

October 18, 2024 4:50 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government will announce its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on October 30, which is anticipated to set government policy goals and priorities and forecast macroeconomic trajectory and the fiscal framework over the next three years, includin

October 15, 2024

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Turkiye Unveils New Medium Term Program Towards 2024-2027
Paying Article

October 15, 2024 6:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-2027 on September 5. According to the announcement, the main goal of the program aims to bring inflation down to single digits, and ensure price stability. GDP growth aimed to accelerate to 4% next year, 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 202

October 11, 2024

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Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated
Freemium Article

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The

October 04, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus

October 03, 2024

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC

Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi

September 30, 2024

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI will Continue to Decelerate in September
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in

September 25, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

September 18, 2024

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South Africa’s Inflation Dips Below Midpoint Target with 4.4% YoY in August
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.6% YoY in July due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel, housing and transportation, the downward trend continued in August and CPI hit 4.4% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations co

September 11, 2024

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High Inflation Continues to Dominate Russian Economy: 9.1% YoY in August
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on September 11, inflation stayed at 9.1% YoY in August after July, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, continued expansion

September 03, 2024

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Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August
Freemium Article

September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit

September 02, 2024

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Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY
Paying Article

September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de

August 30, 2024

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Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July
Paying Article

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

August 27, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues
Paying Article

August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for

August 14, 2024

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South Africa’s Inflation is Expected to Continue its Downward Trend in July
Paying Article

August 14, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation, we now foresee that the downward trend will continue in July and CPI will further slow down to 4.9% - 5.0% Yr/Yr given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR), fall

August 12, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia
Freemium Article

August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re

August 11, 2024

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Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity
Paying Article

August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

August 09, 2024

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Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY
Paying Article

August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti