Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3

November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

SARB MPC Preview: Easing Cycle to Continue on November 21

November 15, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the key rate to 8.0% on September 19 following seven consecutive meetings at a 15-year peak of 8.25% given that September inflation hit below the midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, power cuts (loadshedding) are suspended and inflation expecta

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

Imports Surge, Growth Slows: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP Falls Short of 5% Mark

November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening. 

CBR’s October MPC Summary Signals Another Rate Hike in December

November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of October MPC meeting on November 6, and signaled another rate hike in December by noting that “While a rate hike at the next meeting is not predetermined, the probability is very high,” which can be associated with elevated inflat

Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Foresees Wider Budget Deficit but a Better Growth Prospect

October 30, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government announced its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 30, setting government policy goals and forecasts over the next three years. According to MTBPS, South African Treasury sees consolidated deficit at 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in

BRICS Summit 2024: Kazan Declaration not a Game Changer

October 28, 2024 11:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The BRICS Summit, which was held in Kazan on October 22-24, was the first summit following BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Despite expectations, Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-chan

Deceleration Trend Continues: South Africa’s Inflation Cooled to 3.8% YoY in September

October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account

South Africa: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to be Announced on October 30

October 18, 2024 4:50 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government will announce its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on October 30, which is anticipated to set government policy goals and priorities and forecast macroeconomic trajectory and the fiscal framework over the next three years, includin

Turkiye Unveils New Medium Term Program Towards 2024-2027

October 15, 2024 6:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-2027 on September 5. According to the announcement, the main goal of the program aims to bring inflation down to single digits, and ensure price stability. GDP growth aimed to accelerate to 4% next year, 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 202

Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The

Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate

October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus

Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Decelerated to 49.4% YoY in September Indicating a Positive Real Interest Rate

October 3, 2024 9:32 AM UTC

Bottom line: As we envisaged, CPI cooled off to 49.4% y/y in September from 51.9% in August backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance but the deceleration pace was less-than expected. We continue to think the falling trend wi

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI will Continue to Decelerate in September

September 30, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 51.9% y/y in August from 61.8% y/y in July due to favorable base effects, the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, we expect the falling trend will continue in September supported by moderate slowdown in

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

South Africa’s Inflation Dips Below Midpoint Target with 4.4% YoY in August

September 18, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.6% YoY in July due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel, housing and transportation, the downward trend continued in August and CPI hit 4.4% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations co

High Inflation Continues to Dominate Russian Economy: 9.1% YoY in August

September 11, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on September 11, inflation stayed at 9.1% YoY in August after July, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, continued expansion

Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Further Cooled Off to 51.9% in August

September 3, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 61.8% y/y in July down from 71.6% annually in June, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 51.9% y/y in August backed by the favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures and relative slowdown in credit

Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY

September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de

Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues

August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for

South Africa’s Inflation is Expected to Continue its Downward Trend in July

August 14, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation, we now foresee that the downward trend will continue in July and CPI will further slow down to 4.9% - 5.0% Yr/Yr given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR), fall

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia

August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re

Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity

August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY

August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti

CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast Unchanged at 38%

August 8, 2024 12:00 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its third quarterly inflation report of the year on August 8, and did not change its inflation forecasts and policy guidance. CBRT projects that inflation will fall to 38% at the end of 2024, and kept its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1

Turkiye Inflation Review: CPI Cooled Off to 61.8% in July

August 5, 2024 10:39 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June, down from 75.5% in May, consumer price index (CPI) cooled further down to 61.8% y/y in July. As we expected, favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures, and relative Tur

Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start

August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Cool Down in July

August 1, 2024 4:52 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June, down from 75.5% in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 64-67% y/y in July. We predict favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prudential measures, and relat

Rally Continues: Russian Economy Expands by 3% YoY in June

August 1, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3% YoY in June after expanding by a strong 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven by a significant increase in military spending

South Africa’s Load Shedding Suspended for 121 Consecutive Days, but Risks Remain Alive

July 30, 2024 3:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line:  Despite power cuts (load shedding) was a major headwind for South African economy in Q1, it appears the situation got better in Q2 as Eskom announced on July 26 that load shedding remained suspended for 121 consecutive days since March 26 reflecting an improvement in the reliability a

South Africa’s Inflation Slightly Eased to %5.1 YoY in June

July 24, 2024 11:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on July 24, CPI marginally decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation coupled with suspended power cuts (load shedding) in June. The inflatio

Turkiye’s Current Account Deficit: Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Succour

July 12, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficit (CAD) stood at $25.2 billion as of May 2024, marking its lowest level since June 2022, down from $31.7 billion a month earlier driven by strong services income and improving foreign trade balance, supported by accelerated capital inflows. W

South Africa: Parliament to Open on July 18

July 11, 2024 9:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a government of national unity (GNU) along with other smaller parties, and president Ramaphosa announced the cabinet on June 30, South Africa should now quickly turn its attention to economic urgencies. The parlia

Russia’s Inflation Continued Its Rally in June: 8.6% YoY

July 10, 2024 6:51 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on July 10, inflation jumped to 8.6% YoY in June after hitting 8.3% YoY in May, the highest reading since February 2023, due to strong military spending, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. The ne

Russian Economy Expands by 4.5% YoY in May

July 5, 2024 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven in part by a significant increase in military spending due to intensified Russian offensive operation

Turkiye’s Inflation Slowed for the First Time in 8 Months: 71.6% in June

July 3, 2024 5:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that Turkish CPI cooled to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June partly supported by the ease in energy and food prices in June compared to a month earlier. As we predicted, favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal

Coalition’s Determination will be Key for Narrowing South Africa’s Current Account Deficit

July 1, 2024 10:32 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Current account deficits (CAD) continue to be a major headwind for South African economy ignited by logistical constraints, power cuts (load shedding), and weaker external demand especially from China and the EU. We think CA will be still bolstered by a trade surplus in H2 2024, support

EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

South Africa’s Inflation Stayed Stable at 5.2% in May

June 19, 2024 10:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on June 19, the inflation held steady at 5.2% YoY in May, unchanged from April due to suspended power cuts (load shedding) coupled with unchanged food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) pr

South Africa: ANC-DA-IFP-PA Coalition Will Run the Government

June 17, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a government of national unity (GNU) with the ANC-lead on June 14, along with two smaller opposition parties, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Patriotic Alliance (PA). Lawmakers voted to put former presi

Russia’s Inflation Continued to Surge in May: 8.3% YoY

June 14, 2024 5:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on June 14, inflation surged to 8.3% YoY in May after hitting 7.8% YoY in April, the highest since February 2023, due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic dem

Turkiye’s Inflation Hits 75.5% in May

June 3, 2024 11:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 75.5% annually and 3.4% monthly in May due to increases in education, housing, restaurant & hotel prices. We foresee favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prud