Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t

SA MPC Preview: 25 bps Rate Cut on March 20 is Likely, But a Very Close Call Due to Uncertainties

March 14, 2025 8:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation in January stood at 3.2% in January, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remai

Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Third Straight Cut: CBRT Reduced the Key Rate to 42.5%

March 6, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation softened more-than-expectations to 39.1% in February, the lowest in 20 months, the easing cycle continued on March 6 as Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 42.5%. The decision was supported by domestic demand remaining at disinflationary

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.6% in Q4

March 4, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew modestly by 0.6% YoY in Q4 2024 driven by strong performances by agricultural sector and finance. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on March 4, demand side of the economy was lifted by household consumption expenditu

Turkiye’s Inflation Decelerated More Than Expectations in February, Now Below 40% YoY

March 3, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 3 that the inflation softened to 39.1% y/y in February from 42.1% y/y in January. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than-expected hike in minimum wage in January contin

As Predicted, Turkiye's 2024 GDP Growth Hit 3.2% YoY

February 28, 2025 12:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 28 that Turkish economy expanded by 3.0% in Q4 2024, and 3.2% YoY in full-year 2024, backed by accelerated private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates.

South Africa's Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.2% in January

February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global

Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi

Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Continue Decelerating in January

January 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 44.4% annually in December, we expect consumer price index (CPI) to cool further down to 41-42% y/y in January, which will be announced on February 3. We think lagged impacts of monetary tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than expected hike in

Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

SA Inflation Review: Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.0% in December

January 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on January 22 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.0% in December from 2.9% YoY in November due to housing costs and miscellaneous goods and services, which ticked up 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global econo

SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in December

January 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.9% YoY in November, we now foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 3.1% - 3.2% in December due to rising fuel pieces, which will be announced on January 22. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, increasing oil prices following th

Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

Unemployment Rate Hits 8.6% in November in Turkiye

January 10, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) figures announced on January 10, the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% in November from 8.7% in October. The number of jobless dropped 84,000 from October to 3.07 million in November, the data showed. As unemployment rate continue

Inflation Falls More Than Expectations in December: 44.4% YoY

January 3, 2025 11:34 AM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation fell more than expected to 44.4% annually in November supported by benign food prices and relative TRY stability. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, and will likely be helped by lower-t

Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Trump Tariffs, China +1 and Growth

December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.  
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts in 2025 Despite Global Uncertainties

December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.  We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab

Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

SA Inflation Slightly Rose to 2.9% YoY in November, Still Leaving Room for a Rate Cut in January

December 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation eased to more than a 4-year low in October with 2.8% YoY, it slightly increased to 2.9% YoY in November. Taking into account that the inflation remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% and 6%, we think November print backs rate cut be

RBI Decision Review: RBI Balances Inflation and Growth with Neutral Policy

December 7, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% but unexpectedly cut the CRR by 50 basis points to inject ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system. Growth forecasts for FY2025 were revised down to 6.6%, while inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. This cautious approach reflects the central bank’s fo

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.3% in Q3

December 4, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew lower than expectations by a moderate 0.3% YoY in Q3 2024 driven by a 28.8% QoQ decline in the agricultural sector due to drought reducing output of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA)

Inflation Falls Less Than Expectations in November: 47.1% YoY

December 3, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Bottom line: Inflation was higher than expected at 47.1% annually in November as food prices and housing costs continued to build. We envisage that inflation will continue to decelerate in December and in Q1 2025 by moderate slowdown in domestic demand and credit growth, but the extent of the dec

RBI Decision Preview: Growth Slackens, Inflation Soars: RBI’s Policy Tightrope

December 3, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its last monetary policy decision for 2024 on December 6. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the recent uptick in inflation. The decision to hold rate will come despite

Deceleration Continues: Turkiye's GDP Growth Hits 2.1% YoY in Q3

November 29, 2024 3:12 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 29 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.1% YoY in Q3 driven by higher contribution from net exports. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q3, when compared to Q1 and Q2, as demand ebbed - especially in the se

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

SARB MPC Preview: Easing Cycle to Continue on November 21

November 15, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the key rate to 8.0% on September 19 following seven consecutive meetings at a 15-year peak of 8.25% given that September inflation hit below the midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, power cuts (loadshedding) are suspended and inflation expecta

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

Imports Surge, Growth Slows: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP Falls Short of 5% Mark

November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening. 

CBR’s October MPC Summary Signals Another Rate Hike in December

November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of October MPC meeting on November 6, and signaled another rate hike in December by noting that “While a rate hike at the next meeting is not predetermined, the probability is very high,” which can be associated with elevated inflat

Marginal Fall in October: Turkiye’s CPI Cooled off to 48.1% YoY

November 4, 2024 3:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: After CPI plummeted to 49.4% y/y in September backed by the lagged impacts of the tightening cycle, relative slowdown in credit growth, and tighter fiscal stance, inflation hit 48.6% in October as food, education and rental pricing pressures continued to build while the deceleration p

Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Foresees Wider Budget Deficit but a Better Growth Prospect

October 30, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government announced its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 30, setting government policy goals and forecasts over the next three years. According to MTBPS, South African Treasury sees consolidated deficit at 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in

BRICS Summit 2024: Kazan Declaration not a Game Changer

October 28, 2024 11:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The BRICS Summit, which was held in Kazan on October 22-24, was the first summit following BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Despite expectations, Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-chan

Deceleration Trend Continues: South Africa’s Inflation Cooled to 3.8% YoY in September

October 23, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 4.4% YoY in August, the downward trend continued in September and CPI hit 3.8% YoY given suspended power cuts (loadshedding), a relatively stable Rand (ZAR), decrease in inflation expectations in Q3 coupled with Fed started cutting rates. Taking into account

South Africa: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to be Announced on October 30

October 18, 2024 4:50 PM UTC

Bottom line: The coalition government will announce its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on October 30, which is anticipated to set government policy goals and priorities and forecast macroeconomic trajectory and the fiscal framework over the next three years, includin

Turkiye Unveils New Medium Term Program Towards 2024-2027

October 15, 2024 6:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-2027 on September 5. According to the announcement, the main goal of the program aims to bring inflation down to single digits, and ensure price stability. GDP growth aimed to accelerate to 4% next year, 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 202

Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The