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July 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 35.1% YoY in June
Paying Article

July 3, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that the inflation softened to 35.1% y/y in June from 35.4% y/y in May driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. Despite moderate fall, inflationary risks remain tilte

July 02, 2025

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Russia GDP Growth Continues to Lose Steam
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.2% YoY in May following a 1.9% rise the previous month, which marked one of the lowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal

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South Africa: Coalition Under Pressure After President Ramaphosa Fires DA Deputy
Paying Article

July 2, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The political tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) has peaked as of late June after President Ramaphosa sacked DA’s deputy minister Andrew Whitfield due to an unauthorized trip to the U.S. at the end of February. Following the dismissal, DA

June 26, 2025

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Ukraine War Update: War Continuing Probability is Now at 70%
Freemium Article

June 26, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Our baseline scenario (70%) is based on the war continuing after talks fail since president Putin insists on his peace terms. President Trump is reluctant to threaten or implement of secondary tariffs on Russia oil buyers, that would really pressure president Putin. The U.S. financing o

June 24, 2025

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

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EMEA Outlook: Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics Continue to Dominate
Paying Article

June 24, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food prices, and global uncertainties. We see growth to be 1.2% and 1.7%

June 18, 2025

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South Africa Inflation Stayed Unchanged in May 2.8% YoY
Paying Article

June 18, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Annual inflation stayed stable at 2.8% in May after April as food prices rose, remaining below the lower bound of South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy, and return of power cuts (loadshedding) pressurized do

June 14, 2025

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Russian GDP Growth Loses Steam in Q1
Paying Article

June 14, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia's GDP expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q1, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023 driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monetary tightening, sanctions, supply side constraints and hi

June 12, 2025

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Inflation in Russia Continued to Moderately Decelerate in May: 9.9% YoY
Paying Article

June 12, 2025 7:43 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.9% YoY in May after hitting 10.2% in April, the softest in four months. Despite CPI remained above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, the deceleration was remarkable as prices i

June 03, 2025

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Moderate GDP Growth for South Africa in Q1: 0.1% QoQ, 0.8% YoY
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew moderately by 0.1% QoQ and 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q1 2025. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on June 3, despite growth in agriculture, transport and finance, a strain on the mining and manufacturing industri

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Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to the Lowest Since November 2021 with 35.4% YoY in May
Paying Article

June 3, 2025 8:21 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that the inflation softened to 35.4% y/y in April from 37.9% y/y in April. We think monetary tightening, fiscal measures and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure. Despite this, inflationary risks remain tilted to th

May 30, 2025

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Hitting Below Expectations: Turkish GDP Grew by 2.0% YoY in Q1
Paying Article

May 30, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 30 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2025 backed by private consumption. The growth rate hit below expectations due to the weight of high interest rates, sluggish demand abroad causing weakening exports and adverse geopolit

May 23, 2025

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Turkiye Inflation Report: CBRT Keeps Its End-Year Inflation Forecast at 24%
Paying Article

May 23, 2025 6:28 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 22, and kept its inflation forecast constant for 2025 at 24%. CBRT governor Karahan signalled to maintain a tight stance until a permanent decline in inflation is sustained and price stabili

May 21, 2025

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As Predicted, South Africa Inflation Slightly Increased in April
Paying Article

May 21, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.8% in April due to higher food prices but remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. We think unpredictable outlook for the global economy

May 16, 2025

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Sticky Inflation in Russia Hits 10.2% YoY in April
Paying Article

May 16, 2025 8:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 10.2% YoY in April after hitting 10.3% in March, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending, and lab

May 14, 2025

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SA Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Likely Slightly Rise in April
Paying Article

May 14, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite inflation stood at 2.7% YoY in March, the lowest reading since June 2020, we foresee annual inflation will slightly accelerate to 2.8-2.9% in April, which will be announced on May 21. We feel unpredictable outlook for the global economy, return of power cuts (loadshedding), and

May 12, 2025

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Optimistic CBR Publishes Summary of Key Rate Decision on May 12
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 5:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of the key rate decision on May 12, showing CBR’s views on economic developments. CBR highlighted in its report that “The current inflationary pressures eased in Q1, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pa

May 08, 2025

Indonesia’s Q1 GDP Disappoints, Deepening Case for Rate Cut
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q1 GDP growth slipped to 4.87% yr/yr, missing the 5% target as public spending declined. Household consumption edged down and fixed investment declined sharply. Looking ahead, Q2 may bring further softening. 

May 06, 2025

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South Africa’s Automotive and Agricultural Sectors Will Be Tested Amid Trump’s Additional Tariffs
Paying Article

May 6, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that the 31% U.S. additional tariffs on South African goods could still come into effect despite a 90-day reprieve from the U.S. president Trump, the threat is still alive as South African economy will be negatively impacted by tariffs partly nullifying the African G

May 05, 2025

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Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through
Freemium Article

May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre

April 30, 2025

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Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April
Paying Article

April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect

April 28, 2025

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The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine Seems No Close
Freemium Article

April 28, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We have lowered a Russia-friendly peace deal following a cease-fire to 50% probability but have increased the alternative scenario of war continues to 50% probability in Ukraine as negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue slowly. In the former scenario, we envisage Russia will co

April 23, 2025

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South Africa’s Inflation Softened to a Five-Year Low with 2.7% YoY in March
Paying Article

April 23, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on April 23 that annual South Africa’s inflation softened to a five-year low with 2.7% YoY in March, due to a drop in fuel, education and housing costs. Taking into account that the inflation rate is now below the lower band of South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) tar

April 17, 2025

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Surprising Move: CBRT Increased the Key Rate to 46%
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) surprisingly hiked the policy rate from 42.5% to 46% during the MPC on April 17 after three consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly due to global uncertainties and domestic inflationary risks. CBRT highlighted in its written statement that the possibility o

April 15, 2025

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SARB's Monetary Policy Review Highlights Concerns over the Horizon
Paying Article

April 15, 2025 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 15, uncertainties about the global economy, trade tensions and blurry domestic outlook have caused the scope for monetary policy easing had narrowed. In its biannual review of its monetary p

April 14, 2025

Indonesia's Strategy to Counter US Tariffs
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Facing a potential 32% tariff from the US, Indonesia has launched a multi-pronged strategy to fortify trade relations and ease market access for American giants like Apple and Microsoft. The government plans to lower domestic content requirements and introduce fiscal incentives to attract US investm

April 12, 2025

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Soaring Inflation Hits Two-Year High in March with 10.3% YoY
Paying Article

April 12, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.3% YoY in March after hitting 10.1% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

April 11, 2025

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Strong Consumption Continues to Drive Turkiye's GDP Growth
Paying Article

April 11, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish economy expanded by 3.2% YoY in 2024 backed by strong private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates. After Q2 2023, Q4 2024 marked the highest quarterly reading with 1.7% QoQ surge, which stemmed from turnaround in private consumption that

April 07, 2025

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EMEA Economies Will Be Tested Amid U.S. Tariff Heat
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 5:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The impacts of U.S. additional tariffs announced on April 2 could likely have multifaceted impacts over EMEA countries. Relatively-low 10% tariffs could open new doors for Turkiye to capture a higher global market share if it can act quickly on trade diversification. We foresee the coun

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Jakarta Under Pressure: U.S. Imposes 32% Tariff on Indonesian Exports
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

The U.S. has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, citing structural trade imbalances, local content rules, and restricted market access for American firms. The move puts pressure on Indonesia’s key export sectors such as footwear, electronics, and apparel. Jakarta has opted for diplomacy ov

April 04, 2025

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Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 9:14 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet

April 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont

April 01, 2025

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The Hope for A Peace Deal in Ukraine is Tested
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue, we foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probability) in Ukraine could be sealed in 9-12 months following a cease-fire under current circumstances. In this scenario, we envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around fo

March 28, 2025

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Turkish Economy Remains under Pressure after Mayor of Istanbul Arrest
Freemium Article

March 28, 2025 11:06 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on March 23 due to fraud allegations, nationwide protests continue in Turkiye and Turkish economy remains under pressure despite a recent recovery after Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek vowed to restore stability, and Central Bank of

March 25, 2025

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

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EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

March 21, 2025

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As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21
Freemium Article

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

March 20, 2025

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SARB Kept Key Rate Steady at 7.5% Due to Global and Domestic Uncertainties
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we thought it was likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remained below SARB’s target of 4.5% and core inflation continued to decelerate in February, SARB decided to keep the poli

March 19, 2025

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South Africa’s Inflation Held Steady at 3.2% in February
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on March 19 that annual South Africa’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY in February while the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as services related to restaurants and accommodation. Taking into account that t

March 14, 2025

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SA MPC Preview: 25 bps Rate Cut on March 20 is Likely, But a Very Close Call Due to Uncertainties
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 8:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Taking into account that annual inflation in January stood at 3.2% in January, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% during the MPC scheduled on March 20 as inflation remai

March 13, 2025

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Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY
Freemium Article

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

March 06, 2025

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Third Straight Cut: CBRT Reduced the Key Rate to 42.5%
Paying Article

March 6, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation softened more-than-expectations to 39.1% in February, the lowest in 20 months, the easing cycle continued on March 6 as Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 42.5%. The decision was supported by domestic demand remaining at disinflationary

March 04, 2025

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South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.6% in Q4
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Bottom line: South African economy grew modestly by 0.6% YoY in Q4 2024 driven by strong performances by agricultural sector and finance. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announcement on March 4, demand side of the economy was lifted by household consumption expenditu

March 03, 2025

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Turkiye’s Inflation Decelerated More Than Expectations in February, Now Below 40% YoY
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 3 that the inflation softened to 39.1% y/y in February from 42.1% y/y in January. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability, and less-than-expected hike in minimum wage in January contin

February 28, 2025

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As Predicted, Turkiye's 2024 GDP Growth Hit 3.2% YoY
Paying Article

February 28, 2025 12:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 28 that Turkish economy expanded by 3.0% in Q4 2024, and 3.2% YoY in full-year 2024, backed by accelerated private consumption and robust investments, despite the weight of high interest rates.

February 26, 2025

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South Africa's Inflation Slightly Rose to 3.2% in January
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: StatsSA announced on February 26 annual South Africa’s inflation slightly accelerated to 3.2% YoY in January from 3.0% YoY in December and the main contributors were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic drinks, fuel and restaurant. We feel unpredictable outlook of the global

February 25, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?
Freemium Article

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

February 17, 2025

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

February 13, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

February 10, 2025

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CBRT Increased Its End-Year Inflation Forecast from 21% to 24%
Freemium Article

February 10, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its first quarterly inflation report of the year on February 7, and revised its inflation forecast for 2025. CBRT now projects that inflation will stand at 24% at the end of 2025, 12% next year and 8% in 2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the revisi